Poll

So, what you (UK) guys think? Exit or not to exit?

YES, please get me out of there (I'm UK) [go]
41 (19.5%)
Hell no, we are one big (happy) family! (I'm UK) [stay]
42 (20%)
OMG, let them Go! [go]
63 (30%)
I love the UK, they are family! [stay]
64 (30.5%)

Total Members Voted: 208

Voting closed: July 10, 2016, 10:29:34 am

Author Topic: UK forum members, BREXIT?  (Read 352154 times)

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Offline tggzzz

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1725 on: July 07, 2016, 09:40:43 am »
I haven't seen many politicians talking about this.

The remain camp is absolutely right about one thing: the vote to leave is irrational and against the voters self interests. In the long run. Being able to trade freely with others is always welfare enhancing.

However, the vote to leave is more of a protest vote: it is a vote against status quo, against a political class that is totally divorced from the rest of the people that it is supposed to serve, against the slow trend of disappearing middle class, against free benefits and a welfare state whose costs are overwhelming and explodingly so.

I hope the UK folks can find a leader that can guide them forward.

You can always set up free trade deals without having to financially support countries that can't seem to get their accounts in order.

You seem to be missing two essential details
  • the 27 must crucify the UK in order to demonstrate that leaving the EU is worse than staying in the EU. That will make any deal difficult.
  • trade deals are and will be tied to the free movement of labour - which is the principal reason the turkeys voted for brexit. Not much chance of a compromise there

No crucifixion is happening. We're not there to crucify UK. We're trying to wind off the process so that things stabilise again,
 and we can once more have a resourceful and honourable relation with UK.

I'm sure that's your personal attitude, and it is one I would like to believe.

The politicians in various countries will, very reasonably,  be concerned that this could destabilise their internal politics and/or economy. The last thing the EU needs is another country repeating this nonsense next year! The politicians will do whatever they deem necessary to avoid that, and a key part of that to ensure their electorate (who are no more knowledgeable/sensible than our turkeys) see that leaving hurts more than staying.

Now the knowledgeable will be convinced by subtle evidence, but the ignorant (and those that would like to lead the ignorant) will require blatant evidence that cannot be ignored. That requires that it hurts more than "necessary".
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
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Offline tggzzz

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1726 on: July 07, 2016, 09:43:22 am »
People who want to do harm to western countries find it easy to move about in the EU.  There was an interview I saw with one area in the UK that had the highest percentage of leave votes and they cited their number one concern as being the people coming in under the guise of being a refugee who has bad things planned.
Being that the UK is not part of Schengen it is pretty silly to blame the EU for that.

Of course.

But you assume that rational arguments are relevant. Emotional arguments are much easier to make, and it is much easier to have "a big lie" in an emotional argument.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
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Offline Zero999

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1727 on: July 07, 2016, 10:12:03 am »
You seem to be missing two essential details
  • trade deals are and will be tied to the free movement of labour - which is the principal reason the turkeys voted for brexit. Not much chance of a compromise there
The trade deal with Canada doesn't insist on free movement of labour. 
http://ec.europa.eu/news/2016/07/20160705_2_en.htm

If the EU mandate free movement of labour as a condition of a trade deal with the UK, then it would purely be for political reasons. There needs to be compromise on both sides. It's in both the EU's and UK's best interests to secure a decent deal.
 

Offline tggzzz

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1728 on: July 07, 2016, 10:44:27 am »
You seem to be missing two essential details
  • trade deals are and will be tied to the free movement of labour - which is the principal reason the turkeys voted for brexit. Not much chance of a compromise there
The trade deal with Canada doesn't insist on free movement of labour. 
http://ec.europa.eu/news/2016/07/20160705_2_en.htm

But others do, notably those with Norway and Switzerland.

Quote
If the EU mandate free movement of labour as a condition of a trade deal with the UK, then it would purely be for political reasons. There needs to be compromise on both sides. It's in both the EU's and UK's best interests to secure a decent deal.

I have noted such political reasons in other posts.

The concept of "decent" is too multi-dimensional to be helpful in this context. Which of the competing and mutually-exclusive "dimensions" are more important to the politicians?

The problem with compromise is that it will encourage *exits movements in other countries, and the last thing the EU needs is another *exit next year.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 

Offline Tepe

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1729 on: July 07, 2016, 10:49:27 am »
If the EU mandate free movement of labour as a condition of a trade deal with the UK, then it would purely be for political reasons.
Of course. The ever closer union.

There needs to be compromise on both sides. It's in both the EU's and UK's best interests to secure a decent deal.
Quid pro quo, of course. I rather suspect that the UK will be the party that will have to make the most compromises, though, up to and including getting a Norwegian solution. An amazingly good outcome for Brussels. Nothing will have changed except the UK will now be powerless and unable to block the ever closer union  :palm:
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Offline tggzzz

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1730 on: July 07, 2016, 11:12:57 am »
If the EU mandate free movement of labour as a condition of a trade deal with the UK, then it would purely be for political reasons.
Of course. The ever closer union.

There needs to be compromise on both sides. It's in both the EU's and UK's best interests to secure a decent deal.
Quid pro quo, of course. I rather suspect that the UK will be the party that will have to make the most compromises, though, up to and including getting a Norwegian solution. An amazingly good outcome for Brussels. Nothing will have changed except the UK will now be powerless and unable to block the ever closer union  :palm:

Nobody could possibly have foreseen that, could they.

In the UK the debate will shift to hard-brexit or soft-brexit, e.g. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36723220
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 

Offline Brumby

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1731 on: July 07, 2016, 11:45:54 am »
The trade deal with Canada doesn't insist on free movement of labour. 
http://ec.europa.eu/news/2016/07/20160705_2_en.htm

If the EU mandate free movement of labour as a condition of a trade deal with the UK, then it would purely be for political reasons. There needs to be compromise on both sides. It's in both the EU's and UK's best interests to secure a decent deal.

That was my thinking.
 

Offline Wytnucls

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1732 on: July 07, 2016, 12:04:10 pm »
I can't see the EU compromising on free movement of labour, linked to free access to EU markets.
There has to be new tough regulations though, to reduce illegal immigration and benefits for refugees, EU wide, to avoid further disintegration of the union.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-the-swiss-model-a-brexit-solution/
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 12:17:07 pm by Wytnucls »
 

Offline Zero999

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1733 on: July 07, 2016, 12:42:12 pm »
You seem to be missing two essential details
  • trade deals are and will be tied to the free movement of labour - which is the principal reason the turkeys voted for brexit. Not much chance of a compromise there
The trade deal with Canada doesn't insist on free movement of labour. 
http://ec.europa.eu/news/2016/07/20160705_2_en.htm

But others do, notably those with Norway and Switzerland.
So why one rule for one country and a different one for others?
 

Offline 3db

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1734 on: July 07, 2016, 12:47:12 pm »
You seem to be missing two essential details
  • trade deals are and will be tied to the free movement of labour - which is the principal reason the turkeys voted for brexit. Not much chance of a compromise there
The trade deal with Canada doesn't insist on free movement of labour. 
http://ec.europa.eu/news/2016/07/20160705_2_en.htm

But others do, notably those with Norway and Switzerland.

Quote
If the EU mandate free movement of labour as a condition of a trade deal with the UK, then it would purely be for political reasons. There needs to be compromise on both sides. It's in both the EU's and UK's best interests to secure a decent deal.

I have noted such political reasons in other posts.

The concept of "decent" is too multi-dimensional to be helpful in this context. Which of the competing and mutually-exclusive "dimensions" are more important to the politicians?

The problem with compromise is that it will encourage *exits movements in other countries, and the last thing the EU needs is another *exit next year.

Compromise is at the heart of GOOD politics.
The EU is doomed in the long term and the UK has made the correct decision IHHO.
The most successful business people I know voted for BREXIT.
They are private companies involved in the oil industry (a global industry).
Just to give the doom and gloom merchants something else to worry about.
Article 50 is only about leaving the EU.
The trade deal comes after that.  :-DD

 

Offline Zero999

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1735 on: July 07, 2016, 12:56:46 pm »
Quid pro quo, of course. I rather suspect that the UK will be the party that will have to make the most compromises, though, up to and including getting a Norwegian solution. An amazingly good outcome for Brussels. Nothing will have changed except the UK will now be powerless and unable to block the ever closer union  :palm:
Personally I don't have an issue with immigration so would be happy with that, if it gives us more freedom to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world.

However, I believe the majority of those who voted to leave, did so over concerns of immigration so that would not be a democratic outcome.
 

Offline tggzzz

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1736 on: July 07, 2016, 01:19:03 pm »
You seem to be missing two essential details
  • trade deals are and will be tied to the free movement of labour - which is the principal reason the turkeys voted for brexit. Not much chance of a compromise there
The trade deal with Canada doesn't insist on free movement of labour. 
http://ec.europa.eu/news/2016/07/20160705_2_en.htm

But others do, notably those with Norway and Switzerland.

Quote
If the EU mandate free movement of labour as a condition of a trade deal with the UK, then it would purely be for political reasons. There needs to be compromise on both sides. It's in both the EU's and UK's best interests to secure a decent deal.

I have noted such political reasons in other posts.

The concept of "decent" is too multi-dimensional to be helpful in this context. Which of the competing and mutually-exclusive "dimensions" are more important to the politicians?

The problem with compromise is that it will encourage *exits movements in other countries, and the last thing the EU needs is another *exit next year.

Compromise is at the heart of GOOD politics.

If compromise is possible, and if the politicians/politics are good. Recent examples of the latter have made me ashamed to be British.

Quote
The EU is doomed in the long term and the UK has made the correct decision IHHO.

That's a pious hope, because nobody knows.

Quote
The most successful business people I know voted for BREXIT.

The most successful business people I know voted to remain. They have already seen contracts aborted explicitly because of Brexit => -10 skilled full-time jobs.

Quote
They are private companies involved in the oil industry (a global industry).

My examples are in IT and knowledge engineering (a global industry).

Quote
Just to give the doom and gloom merchants something else to worry about.
Article 50 is only about leaving the EU.
The trade deal comes after that.  :-DD

Yup, and the trade deal with the US will be to bend over and be shafted by the TTIP - which is a far greater threat to people in the UK than anything the EU has done.

Q: why has there been such a tight lid on what's in the TTIP?
A: because if people knew the consequences, they would be out demonstrating in the streets.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1737 on: July 07, 2016, 01:38:15 pm »
In the newspaper today, our politicians are telling that large financial institutions from the UK are making inquiries about the dutch possibilities if they want to move.
Our country has a very strict bonus culture where bonusses are strictly banded, so probably they will go to Frankfurt.
 

Offline tggzzz

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1738 on: July 07, 2016, 01:47:21 pm »
In the newspaper today, our politicians are telling that large financial institutions from the UK are making inquiries about the dutch possibilities if they want to move.
Our country has a very strict bonus culture where bonusses are strictly banded, so probably they will go to Frankfurt.

Frankfurt of Paris are the likely destinations; I suspect Frankfurt is more likely because of the existing ties with the financial institutions there.

BTW: good idea about bonuses. One of the major causes of dissatisfaction here (which lead to the brexit vote) is the greed of people in the city sucking money away from the regions. Note that there is no requirement for the dissatisfaction to be based in reality; mere perception is sufficient.
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
Having fun doing more, with less
 

Offline Tepe

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1739 on: July 07, 2016, 02:31:07 pm »
Note that there is no requirement for the dissatisfaction to be based in reality; mere perception is sufficient.
Good point!
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Offline XynxNet

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1740 on: July 07, 2016, 02:42:10 pm »
  • the 27 must crucify the UK in order to demonstrate that leaving the EU is worse than staying in the EU. That will make any deal difficult.
  • trade deals are and will be tied to the free movement of labour - which is the principal reason the turkeys voted for brexit. Not much chance of a compromise there
EU doesn't want to crucify anybody. Only idiots are interested in destabilizing other countries. EU likes britain and wanted it to stay. That's why britain had a lot of special priviliges in the eu like it's substantial member fee cut.
It's ok british people didn't like the eu deal any more and voted for brexit.
Now it's time to define/negotiate our future relationship. It's not ok to stall this process by not invoking article 50 and destabilizing britain and the eu for reasons of internal party policy.

Conncerning the free market... The eu deal on it's free market contains more aspekts than just trade of goods. Free movement of labor is an integral part of that. Harmonisation of standards another for example.
I'am sure there will be a compromise between britain and eu. But compromise means for both sides taking some benefits and some disadvantages. There will definitly be some form of trade agreement. Probably without free movement of labor, if this is really a sore point for britain. But it propably won't be todays deal just without free movement, but some form of compromise.


In the newspaper today, our politicians are telling that large financial institutions from the UK are making inquiries about the dutch possibilities if they want to move.
Our country has a very strict bonus culture where bonusses are strictly banded, so probably they will go to Frankfurt.
Let's be honest. They will do what they always did... blackmailing governments into the biggest possible tax cuts. I don't know if there is room for even lower taxes in the city of london, but if new tax cuts outweight the disadvantages of brexit, than they will propably stay there. If not, they will move to the 'cheapest' country in europe for their european business.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 03:17:41 pm by XynxNet »
 

Offline G7PSK

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1741 on: July 07, 2016, 03:41:49 pm »
Of course the EU wanted Britain to stay, if by the EU you mean Germany, Britain leaving is set to cost Germany another 2.4 billion euros a year at least.
 

Offline XynxNet

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1742 on: July 07, 2016, 03:52:17 pm »
Of course the EU wanted Britain to stay, if by the EU you mean Germany, Britain leaving is set to cost Germany another 2.4 billion euros a year at least.
That's pocket money in the sheme of things. Germany spends ~300 billion euros each year. Germany is more concerned about future trade opportunities with britain.
 

Offline tggzzz

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1743 on: July 07, 2016, 04:15:30 pm »
  • the 27 must crucify the UK in order to demonstrate that leaving the EU is worse than staying in the EU. That will make any deal difficult.
  • trade deals are and will be tied to the free movement of labour - which is the principal reason the turkeys voted for brexit. Not much chance of a compromise there
EU doesn't want to crucify anybody. Only idiots are interested in destabilizing other countries. EU likes britain and wanted it to stay. That's why britain had a lot of special priviliges in the eu like it's substantial member fee cut.
It's ok british people didn't like the eu deal any more and voted for brexit.
Now it's time to define/negotiate our future relationship. It's not ok to stall this process by not invoking article 50 and destabilizing britain and the eu for reasons of internal party policy.

Conncerning the free market... The eu deal on it's free market contains more aspekts than just trade of goods. Free movement of labor is an integral part of that. Harmonisation of standards another for example.
I'am sure there will be a compromise between britain and eu. But compromise means for both sides taking some benefits and some disadvantages. There will definitly be some form of trade agreement. Probably without free movement of labor, if this is really a sore point for britain. But it propably won't be todays deal just without free movement, but some form of compromise.

I don't disagree with that, and I'm disgusted with our politican's behaviour. So are many people, and that isn't good for democracy in the medium and long term.

Unfortunately it is very rare that divorces are civilised and don't degenerate into vicious destructive squabbles.


Quote
In the newspaper today, our politicians are telling that large financial institutions from the UK are making inquiries about the dutch possibilities if they want to move.
Our country has a very strict bonus culture where bonusses are strictly banded, so probably they will go to Frankfurt.
Let's be honest. They will do what they always did... blackmailing governments into the biggest possible tax cuts. I don't know if there is room for even lower taxes in the city of london, but if new tax cuts outweight the disadvantages of brexit, than they will propably stay there. If not, they will move to the 'cheapest' country in europe for their european business.

The Chancellor of The Exchequer has already said corporation tax will be cut. I don't know how the lost revenue will be replaced (and I doubt he does either).
There are lies, damned lies, statistics - and ADC/DAC specs.
Glider pilot's aphorism: "there is no substitute for span". Retort: "There is a substitute: skill+imagination. But you can buy span".
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Offline apis

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1744 on: July 07, 2016, 04:19:55 pm »
The euro also dropped a little bit, about 2% compared to the pound 15% drop. That is: it might no longer be in a short while.
This is not even a peep in history scale . Compare with surrendering the sovereignty of a nation.
No, not a peep on a historical scale, but that doesn't say much. The pound is at it's lowest in 31 years. The nation states themselves are only about 150 years old. The sovereignty of a nation is worthless unless you're king/queen of said nation. For everyone else, what matters is that we have democratic control over the governing bodies. The little power EU have, we do have democratic influence over, directly and indirectly.
 
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Offline apis

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1745 on: July 07, 2016, 04:33:21 pm »
I would have thought that would be a preferred option.  Limit the deal to trade and stay out of the minefield of internal fiscal policy of a trading partner.
One of the main motivation for EU is as a peace project, it's not a simple trade union. The UK was not part of the euro-zone so the euro was not an issue for the UK. Most EU-directives are intended to harmonize the inner market, standardisation and such, it is mostly good things.
 

Offline zapta

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1746 on: July 07, 2016, 04:42:52 pm »
The euro also dropped a little bit, about 2% compared to the pound 15% drop. That is: it might no longer be in a short while.
This is not even a peep in history scale . Compare with surrendering the sovereignty of a nation.
No, not a peep on a historical scale, but that doesn't say much. The pound is at it's lowest in 31 years. The nation states themselves are only about 150 years old. The sovereignty of a nation is worthless unless you're king/queen of said nation. For everyone else, what matters is that we have democratic control over the governing bodies. The little power EU have, we do have democratic influence over, directly and indirectly.

The larger the union, the less influence people have on their lives. This dilution is amplified if the political union is with different cultures, has obscure processes for selecting the leadership, and centralized bureaucracy keeps expanding its powers.

Brexit will bring the decision making closer to the British people and will preserve the British nation. If I would be a Briton, I would vote for it regardless of short term economic impact. YMMV.
Drain the swamp.
 

Offline Augustus

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1747 on: July 07, 2016, 04:49:12 pm »
The Chancellor of The Exchequer has already said corporation tax will be cut. I don't know how the lost revenue will be replaced (and I doubt he does either).

That's an easy one. Tax rises and spending cuts according to George Osborne:

"It's very clear that the country is going to be poorer as a result of what's happening to the economy," he said.
"We are absolutely going to have to provide fiscal security to people, in other words we are going to have to show the country and the world that the country can live within its means."
Asked if that meant tax rises and spending cuts, he said: "Yes, absolutely. But that decision will come under a new prime minister - it's obviously not possible while the Conservative Party is having a leadership contest."


Someone has to pay for the party and guess who it might be...
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Offline Galenbo

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1748 on: July 07, 2016, 05:01:30 pm »
It will go down, just like the rest that went down last time, and they will blame the accumulated problems from the last +20 years on Brexit.
Kind of like how English politicians/tabloids have been blaming their accumulated problems from the last +20 years on EU and immigrants?
Yes. You can't blame any of the problems from the last +20 years on my high-educated Turkish collegue.

But here it gets difficult: He was slightly pro-brexit, and called everyone telling emotionalistic or unspecific "truths" pro- remain/leave "low-educated"
He calls himself privileged too here. Some quotes of him:
"You have to be a Turk to be able to say what you think in Europe"
"As a racist I think you Europeans are stupid enough to get replaced by those illiterates"

Very funny guy, always ready to help, always ready to say something inappropriate.

Difficult to say generalised things about "immigrants" personally.
Easy to say things about the general invasion that is going on, that's completely differrent.

If you try and take a cat apart to see how it works, the first thing you have on your hands is a nonworking cat.
 

Offline Galenbo

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Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
« Reply #1749 on: July 07, 2016, 05:09:49 pm »
Were it not for the US, you would be speaking German right now.  Don't forget it!

Besides a traditional american misconception, actually Soviet liberated Europe!...Sort of.....well, one totalitarian idea for another...same Marx and Engels crap.

Indeed, USA did nothing until Hitler was de-facto beaten by Russia, USA feared Russia would take-in their whole empire.
Warcrimes against civilians, like the Dresden Bombing, were mainly a showoff to the enemy-inside-the-allies.


« Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 05:15:46 pm by Galenbo »
If you try and take a cat apart to see how it works, the first thing you have on your hands is a nonworking cat.
 


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