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General => General Chat => Topic started by: onesixright on June 10, 2016, 10:29:34 am

Title: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: onesixright on June 10, 2016, 10:29:34 am
I'm just curious, voting date is coming up soon.

So, please if you UK resident, please only vote 1 or 2, for all others 3 or 4  ;)

 :popcorn:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 10, 2016, 11:04:59 am
I think we should stay in Europe, and all the Brussels bureaucrats get thrown out. A better BREXIT  :-+
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: daqq on June 10, 2016, 11:06:05 am
Quote
I think we should stay in Europe, and all the Brussels bureaucrats get thrown out. A better BREXIT  :-+
Now there's a thought! I'd love that option.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 10, 2016, 11:24:53 am
Either way, the outcome is better for the UK and EU than the status quo.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: razberik on June 10, 2016, 01:08:22 pm
Quote
I think we should stay in Europe, and all the Brussels bureaucrats get thrown out. A better BREXIT  :-+
Now there's a thought! I'd love that option.
Exactly, however EU seems to be not reformable, so successful brexit should be a memento for leaders and reminder for others (don't vote for idiots which has a bipolar speech, A is said to national parliament, completely opposite B is said to EU parliament).
Personally I hope for Czexit, reasons are exactly the same as for Brexit.

Ad) Existence of European Comission is a fail. Group of dilettantes who are not elected and do not have any responsibility for their proposals.
Remember tungsten bulb ban, SnPb ban (what about banning SnPb for aircraft, shall be very cool) and ... eurofunds. Eastern-EU and middle-EU politicians salivate like a Pavlov's dog when hear "eurofunds".
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 10, 2016, 01:41:28 pm
100% BrExit

Have you tried to get your kid into a school? Have you tried to get a GP appointment?  Have you tried to get a Hospital appointment? House Prices!  Zero hours/low paid work!

I live in the South East so maybe I'm biased as maybe we get the brunt of the downside.

To remain is insane.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 10, 2016, 02:03:59 pm
I think we should stay in Europe, and all the Brussels bureaucrats get thrown out.

You want the bureaucrats that control your life to be closer to you so their decisions are more relevant to your life and you have a better chance of influencing them.

We have similar tension here between levels of bureaucracies, federal, state, country and municipal.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: GEuser on June 10, 2016, 02:31:53 pm
Choice 3 and 4 are a bit vague , could you just name them stay in or get out? so i had to pick one of the others .
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 10, 2016, 04:25:43 pm
100% BrExit

Have you tried to get your kid into a school? Have you tried to get a GP appointment?  Have you tried to get a Hospital appointment? House Prices!  Zero hours/low paid work!

I live in the South East so maybe I'm biased as maybe we get the brunt of the downside.

To remain is insane.
OK

There is pressure on school places for sure - BUT if we want access to the common market we are likely to have to accept free movement of labour as well - c.f. Norway so voting "leave" is unlikely to change immigration, whatever the Leave campaign say.

GP & Hospital appointments. Well, the NHS seems to be being adversely affected by current Government policy with out reference to Europe. If you believe that pulling out of the EU will free up squillions extra to spend on the NHS you have been conned by the Leave campaign, are living in cloud cuckoo land or both as there is no guarantee that the money would go to the NHS anyway, it is not as much as the Leave crowd claim and, even if the whole net EU contribution was added to NHS funding, £8bn is only just under 7% of the current NHS budget. As for reducing immigration well, see above. Oh and are you planning on sending every EU national "Back Home" because, if not, there will be just as much competition for health care and if you are then don't be surprised if 2 million Ex Pats (and very disgruntled ones at that) turn up on your doorstep asking what tthey do now that Europe has kicked them out.

House prices - well, that's a case of supply and demand and years and years of under-provisioning of new properties. Not helped by the fact that the government thinks England stops at Watford Gap. The problems faced by the property developers which limit their ability to build and sell houses are multiple and include availability of suitable building land, the fact that many young people cannot afford a motgrage anyway and, interestingly, a skills shortage in the building trades. Turning your back on a ready supply of those skills from places like Poland does not seem all that sensible.

Finally I do not see how Zero hours contracts and low paid work are the fault of the EU. In fact it is likely that one of the reasons some of the right wing Brexit crowd want out is precisely to avoid legislation which might protect the workforce from this sort of thing.

I can't see that voting Leave will fix any of your complaints.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 10, 2016, 04:52:18 pm
BUT if we want access to the common market we are likely to have to accept free movement of labour as well
That's a myth.  However unfortunately we don't have any negotiating power until we leave so it's pointless to predict the deal until we have some power back. 
Whatever the deal there is no reason to believe it will be what we have today or zero access, it will be something in between. 
Indeed Schäuble said today we won't get full access to the single market, but then again... he would say that.
Everything is negotiable but only if we are OUT
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 10, 2016, 05:36:49 pm
BUT if we want access to the common market we are likely to have to accept free movement of labour as well
That's a myth.  However unfortunately we don't have any negotiating power until we leave so it's pointless to predict the deal until we have some power back. 
Really? UK screws EU every now and then. Like new EU directive, fuck it because we don't like it, all other countries still need to accept it which puts them in disadvantage. There are so many things UK refused to accept or made EU to accept special preferences for UK, that you will be tired to count. So I really doubt that EU exploits UK, IMO it is completely other way. But if UK exits, guess it will be worse for all, both UK and the rest of EU, at least in near future.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 10, 2016, 07:06:42 pm
Merkel completely ruined the EU for me. Fine if you have a demographic time bomb that you need to fix, so do we, but for Christ's sake fix it with people from Spain or Poland that have a similar culture. Do not import Islamofascism from the third world and bully the rest of Europe into supporting your outrageously naive stupidity.
I can't tell you where in the UK the Sikhs, Hindus, Jews, or Poles live, but I can easily tell where every single muslim ghetto is in my area because they don't fit in.
Jews are now leaving the UK because they don't feel safe here, and our politicians are hell bent on making that situation worse by the day.

The insufferable Champagne Socialist, Miliband was on the radio today, talking down to people as usual. "Nobody understands our message on immigration" - Yes we do you Metropolitan numpty, you just can't accept that you've destroyed whole communities with your failed social experiments. As Blair's henchman put it: "To rub the Right's nose in diversity"
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Nauris on June 10, 2016, 07:23:45 pm
EU is turning into abomination. Get out while you can.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 10, 2016, 07:24:23 pm
BUT if we want access to the common market we are likely to have to accept free movement of labour as well
That's a myth.

OK, so the "Swiss model". Which took at least 10 years to set up, covers far fewer trade sectors and agreements than we would need, required considerable concessions on the part of the Swiss and provides an ongoing legislative burden on the Swiss government. Oh, and I believe the EU has said it was so complex it would not entertain setting up anything like it again.

Or the Canadian model - which has taken ages to set up, is not complete, does not provide tariff free access to the market and does not cover services (which are essential ti the UK economy).

Quote
However unfortunately we don't have any negotiating power until we leave so it's pointless to predict the deal until we have some power back. 
Whatever the deal there is no reason to believe it will be what we have today or zero access, it will be something in between. 
Indeed Schäuble said today we won't get full access to the single market, but then again... he would say that.
Everything is negotiable but only if we are OUT
I'm not clear how much negotiating power we will have once out. Brexit is potentially destabilising to Europe and I think that the EU will want to demonstrate how much damage pulling out can do - "pour décourager les autres".

The whole debate annoys me though. No-one really knows what the consequences will be, but the politicians feel that they must present their arguments as cast iron fact. Unfortunately sometimes bending the truth to breaking point to support their arguments, presenting half truths as fact and, when that fails, poring scorn on "the other side". The result is that there is no sensible debate and the Great British Public is being put off from actually thinking rationally about the issue - which is probably more important than any General Election (John Major is right about that one).
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 10, 2016, 07:33:09 pm
I'm going to stop contributing to this thread (if I can help myself).  EEVBlog is a sanctuary from the referendum.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 10, 2016, 07:38:40 pm
Quote
Do not import Islamofascism from the third world and bully the rest of Europe into supporting your outrageously naive stupidity.

That's the basic message I have for my pro-illegal immigration pro-ghetto friends: in a free world, every sovereign country should have to right to import as many people of any type they wish ***into their own country***, as long as those people are confined to that country and with no externality on other countries / other peoples.

The same for those pro-illegal immigration activists. They can sponsor as many illegals as they could, as long as they bear the cost of supporting such illegals and confine those illegals to their apartments, their homes, their towns, ...

The problem often that those who love illegal immigrants love more of parking those illegal immigrants in other people's backyards.

aka Germany.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 10, 2016, 07:47:21 pm
I'm going to stop contributing to this thread (if I can help myself).  EEVBlog is a sanctuary from the referendum.
As much as I like a good argument I agree. No radiation with a wavelength in the 380 to 750nm range is going to be generated. It's all going to be in the 8–15 µm region. :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Wilksey on June 10, 2016, 08:18:19 pm
What is common are a shed load of "Vote Leave" posters including in shopping centres, but I haven't seen any "Vote Stay"... :popcorn:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 10, 2016, 08:21:47 pm
Quote
However unfortunately we don't have any negotiating power until we leave

Absolutely.

A union, any union, is the strongest when its members are free to leave.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: mtdoc on June 10, 2016, 08:26:25 pm
New poll today showing 55% in favor of exit (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html). 

If I were a Brit, I think I'd be voting to exit.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rich on June 10, 2016, 08:30:34 pm
I couldn't see the voting option for: "If the qualified politicians, economists etc. elected to run the country full-time can't agree on what's best, then how am I supposed to decide objectively in my spare-time using soundbite propaganda uttered by both sides and delivered through biased media? It would be irresponsible of me to vote without running a full simulation of the next 100 years of The World "

The whole referendum campaigns are about pressing people's buttons hard enough so they vote in a particular way without realising the negative effects that vote has (true for both sides). The fact that it is pretty much 50:50 shows its a crapshoot at best.

I've read some interesting opinions expressed in various forums because of the referendum, so it's positive people are talking and engaging, but I have to agree with grumpydoc - very few are thinking and updating their opinions based on rational though which is after all what debate should be about.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 10, 2016, 08:31:01 pm
New poll today showing 55% in favor of exit (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html). 
Oh dear.

Quote
If I were a Brit, I think I'd be voting to exit.
Because?

In case there is any doubt I will declare myself to be in the "Remain" camp.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 10, 2016, 08:37:16 pm
Name a British politician - easy - lots  -
Name a British Politician elected to the EU Parliament  - ..... (without googling) .. well that was hard was it  not? And when did you see one on TV last?

EU is ruling Europe from behind a big black curtain with no transparency at all.

No respect for member states money. All they care about is expanding the number of member countries to "expand" their power. That is why so many former Eastern European countries are now full members despite being so far away from the "idea(l)" of EU. Power mongers...

I don't doubt leaving EU will damage UK - but if UK does not leave - the next 200 years will be rough on the UK from EU because of all the offended bureaucrats with elephant memories. If UK leaves it will send a signal that is important - which is "We had enough" and that is a clear signal. It will hurt like ripping off a band-aid (or more like old scabs) - but big companies exporting to the UK will quickly make certain trade agreements will come into effect.

Does Audi, Mercedes, BMW and Porsche want to loose such a huge % of their EU market - not likely.. So they will set Merkels auto-pilot to steer towards the UK.

France wont say a lot as they are on the brink of a Greek style crisis. Spain is just recovering slowly - Italy is more focused on their own stuff. Scandinavia is finding out integration of radically different people is hard and is pushing against EU and have put in huge border controls to stem migration. The Netherlands are in trouble for all their business with Eastern Europe that made them a lot of money - is banned due to EU's Putin sanctions.

From my personal side on Brexit - yes my house might decline in value - yes income might drop - but I do think out is better than in (in this case).

But the bigger issue is without leadership reform in the EU - at some point there will be revolutions. That has happened to EVERY single "big" Government in History since beginning of recorded history and possibly before :) . The more rules - the bigger the government - the more annoyed a population - the closer the society is to collapse from one reason or another. And maybe a Brexit can help initiate a "reform" - so we can get a "silent & non-violent" revolution.

But for a twice a week podcast on world news dissected - follow the "No Agenda" podcast. Fun as it gets and takes a stab at the established news media and takes what news media reports apart. After EEVBlog and AmpHour they are my favorite "broadcasters" at the moment. And not an ADVERT in sight - all financed by donations from private individuals. Website: http://www.noagendashow.com/ (http://www.noagendashow.com/) - and despite being 'Merican (not Mexican) - they have a "reasonable" grasp of the European politics as well but with 'Merican angle.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 10, 2016, 08:37:39 pm
Quote
"If the qualified politicians, economists etc. elected to run the country full-time can't agree on what's best, then how am I supposed to decide objectively in my spare-time using soundbite propaganda uttered by both sides and delivered through biased media?

Doesn't sound you have a lot of confidence in  your own ability to decide for yourself.

There are a lot of research to suggest that the "uneducated" mass is pretty good at finding a good outcome for themselves without the "elites".
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 10, 2016, 08:40:55 pm
Quote
despite being 'Merican (not Mexican)

Not for long. There is a "Make America Mexico Again" movement going strong right this moment, :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 10, 2016, 08:43:08 pm
Within Europe there is no alternative to the status quo, yet the status quo is untenable. Refugee streams measurable in high 9 figures are bearing down on us in the near future, yet human rights and refugee conventions are given a status higher than the bible.

If the status quo doesn't change soon there are two ways forward for the EU, annihilation of its entire cultural fabric or civil war. Get out of the EU's status quo before that choice is forced upon you.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Towger on June 10, 2016, 08:54:01 pm



If I were a Brit, I think I'd be voting to exit.

You don't have to be British to have a vote. Due to a quirk in the law, a numbers of ex empire nationalities living in the UK can also vote in the referendum.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Nozzer on June 10, 2016, 08:59:47 pm
I'm in favour of remaining in the EU and working to reform it. It would have been easier to make reforms had the Conservative Party not decided to leave the mainstream conservative grouping in the EU and join the ultra right-wing bloc that has no real influence.

Most of the EU bureaucracy, apart from a relatively small number of permenant Eurocrats, are in fact civil servants from member states on secondment. In my old workplace opportunities arose to volunteer for a fortnight (deducted from one's annual leave) to work. Long hours (10 hour days) hard work, living in a hotel, but it was well rewarded and interesting.

I should point out that if we leave we will not have access to the Single European Market unless we accept the conditions that are attached in EU law to those (tariff free) trading privileges. Norway can trade with the EU through the SEM only by transposing EU law and regulations into her domestic law and by allowing unrestricted immigration. In Norway's case the immigration is coming from Russia through Northern Norway. So in fact we would get the worse of both worlds. We would have to transpose EU law into domestic law whilst having no power to alter it as we would as an EU member.

For more information you might like to read the UK Parliament's reading material produced by the House of Commons Library, on the issues regarding the EU referendum.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/eu-referendum/ (http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/eu-referendum/)

You can also get further information from the House of Commons Enquiry Service through the link:
http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/offices/commons/hcio/contact-us/ (http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/offices/commons/hcio/contact-us/)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 10, 2016, 09:06:45 pm
"If the qualified politicians, economists etc. elected to run the country full-time can't agree on what's best, then how am I supposed to decide objectively

Politicians appear to be looking to their own self interest - a Conservative agenda benefits by lowering wages and a Labour agenda benefits by having a new generation of a disenfranchised underclass to vote for it.

If a population repeatedly declares that immigration is of primary concern and a London political elite repeatedly looks the other way and refuses to discuss it, then I don't feel responsible if my own half-arsed opinions contribute to an exit vote.

The day after is going to be interesting, if a vote to remain wins the day then conspiracy theorists are going to be foaming at the mouth at all the back stage fixing that's gone on, and 50% of the population is going to be looking for ways to punish any pro-EU politician for screwing them over. And every EU bureaucrat is going to hate the UK even more for daring to resist their new dystopian Reich.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 10, 2016, 09:14:04 pm
Quote
and 50% of the population is going to be looking for ways to punish any pro-EU politician for screwing them over.

That's the problem with any democracy: at any given point, roughly 50% of the population is unhappy about the outcome.

Here is a solution that will make 100% of the people happy: split the country. The leave people go to their half that has nothing with the EU, and the remain people go to their half that is as tightly married to the EU as much as they want.

everyone is happy.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 10, 2016, 09:18:49 pm
Here is a solution that will make 100% of the people happy: split the country. The leave people go to their half that has nothing with the EU, and the remain people go to their half that is as tightly married to the EU as much as they want.

That's already happening over other issues, I gather the population of the East End of London is slowly decamping to Essex.


Really the EU is a great idea run by idiots - everyone wants an easy way to trade with other nations, nobody wants to import another countries rapists.
Why do we have to do both?

I'm sure the Victorians of the Industrial age didn't amass all that wealth just so some smug Liberal Progressive from Goldsmiths could give it all away to improve the life expectations of 1 million goat herders
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: razberik on June 10, 2016, 09:52:18 pm
Really the EU is a great idea run by idiots
Speaks for everything. I believe that many speakers for leaving doesn't really want to abandon Europe, they only want to punch incompetent leaders in face "Come on, wake up ! We have voted for leaving ! Do something !".
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: RGB255_0_0 on June 10, 2016, 10:04:12 pm
Here is a solution that will make 100% of the people happy: split the country. The leave people go to their half that has nothing with the EU, and the remain people go to their half that is as tightly married to the EU as much as they want.

That's already happening over other issues, I gather the population of the East End of London is slowly decamping to Essex.


Really the EU is a great idea run by idiots - everyone wants an easy way to trade with other nations, nobody wants to import another countries rapists.
Why do we have to do both?

I'm sure the Victorians of the Industrial age didn't amass all that wealth just so some smug Liberal Progressive from Goldsmiths could give it all away to improve the life expectations of 1 million goat herders
No, they amassed their wealth through exploitation and pillaging, among others.

I think leaving the EU will shock a hell of a lot of vote leavers, especially when they lose their job as the business ups sticks because their revenue was generated predominantly from the continent; as well as having to work with the Norwegian or Swiss models, which are even more broken than it is currently for us.

The people here are not going to get kicked out and sent home. Your kids aren't suddenly going to get their place at the local grammar school.

Waiting lists will be just as bad as they are now (and how they were in the late 90s). Countries can force us to pay for visas and push up the yearly visit to the Greek islands or what have you.

House prices were booming long before Poland joined the EU. Birth rates in the UK were falling and we'd have been in a similar situation as Japan, Germany and China - much worse than it is now.

I think the vote is more a utopian view if what we think will be resolved by leaving (or staying) rather than actually thinking logically and reasonably about it.

What we have found out is how many power hungry politicians there are like Boris J and Michael G who are basically making this about them versus Cameron in a popularity and bragging rights contest.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 10, 2016, 10:07:45 pm
If UK exit Putin will have a bottle of champagne with Lavrov and the Scott's and Welch will reelect for an UK exit and left standing holding the bags will be England..
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Bud on June 10, 2016, 10:08:12 pm
I recall there was life before EU.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 10, 2016, 10:19:47 pm
I recall there was life before EU.
There was - I remember the '70's. Back then random power cuts were an adventure and I loved my dad getting out the old style polished brass paraffin lamps and lighting them up. Especially when we had to put a new filament in as that meant burning off the protective coating which was always spectacular.

That sort of thing excites when you are 10; not so much these days.

The UK in the 70's was a mess. Per capita income had fallen by 25% compared with Germany & France over the post war period - odd when Germany was the "loser" and France had been invaded.

Now I'm not suggesting that it was all to do with the EU but the UK's economic performance has been hugely better in the 45 or so years we have been in the EU compared with the previous 25 after the war.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 10, 2016, 10:41:04 pm
If UK exit Putin will have a bottle of champagne

Why should we care? We are not at war with him. Ohh he took an Island with an important naval base and a near 100% ethnically Russian population and helped a Russian region in Georgia.

In the mean time we threw tons of money at the Ukraine to destabilize a government and subsequently coming very close to putting a bunch of genocidal neo-nazis into power. For what? To create a money pit the EU is somehow obligated to pour billions into year after year? (Mark my words, we will bail the IMF out in the Ukraine soon. My country's annoying little referendum delayed it a bit, but they will get the money train back on the rails. There is no alternative.)We bombed Lybia to hell and all the EU got out of it was a massive increase in boats with refugees. Our "allies" are a much bigger danger to us than Putin.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 11, 2016, 12:02:45 am
No, they amassed their wealth through exploitation and pillaging, among others.

I don't see any Rhodes scholarships handing back the money.
Being racist to white waitresses, yes - handing back the money, no.

I'm personally quite glad that every country was busily exploiting someone, I'd hate to be the only country in the world where gender study parasites gleefully paraded their moral superiority over all the other war-mongers.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rich on June 11, 2016, 12:21:10 am
Quote
"If the qualified politicians, economists etc. elected to run the country full-time can't agree on what's best, then how am I supposed to decide objectively in my spare-time using soundbite propaganda uttered by both sides and delivered through biased media?

Doesn't sound you have a lot of confidence in  your own ability to decide for yourself.
You would be correct. It's easy to make a decision based on which personal biases are stroked by each side of the argument. I can even construct forward looking theories to support my decision and use future events to add to my confirmation bias. But long term, for the subsequent generations, how is even possible for the lay-person today to accurately assess and predict all interrelated variables to determine a 'best' future prediction. It just isn't. But largely it doesn't matter - In or out, the actions of successive governments will have a more direct and lasting impact.


There are a lot of research to suggest that the "uneducated" mass is pretty good at finding a good outcome for themselves without the "elites".

Check. 4 legs good 2 legs bad :) 


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 11, 2016, 12:28:56 am
BUT if we want access to the common market we are likely to have to accept free movement of labour as well
That's a myth.  However unfortunately we don't have any negotiating power until we leave so it's pointless to predict the deal until we have some power back. 
Whatever the deal there is no reason to believe it will be what we have today or zero access, it will be something in between. 
Indeed Schäuble said today we won't get full access to the single market, but then again... he would say that.
Everything is negotiable but only if we are OUT
And what do you think to achieve? In the grand scheme of things (global economy) GB is just a small insignificant spec in the Atlantic ocean. That former Greek minister of finance had the same illusion about negotiating a deal on his terms. Look how well that ended.
Either way the EU is about creating a huge internal market which can serve as a self supporting economic eco system which is very resillient against crisis. The countries in the EU are too small to do that by themselves. I'm not saying it is perfect as it is now but the crisis from the recent years has shown what works and what doesn't. Also companies are getting bigger and may not be interested to adhering to local law at all (look at Microsoft, Apple, Dell, Google). A single country just doesn't stand a chance because their market makes just a few percent of the turnover of such big companies!
Edit: For example: Microsoft can afford to leave GB. Can GB afford for Microsoft to leave GB?

Within Europe there is no alternative to the status quo, yet the status quo is untenable. Refugee streams measurable in high 9 figures are bearing down on us in the near future, yet human rights and refugee conventions are given a status higher than the bible.
Did you ever care to look at the rate at which the population in the EU will be shrinking? Those refugees are very necessary to replenish the workforce! In the upcoming decades we'll be needing a lot more extra people. Shortly after WW2 there has been a surge in the number of people being born. This generation is now retiring. In the next 3 decades their offspring will be retiring as well.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 11, 2016, 12:35:52 am
The Netherlands are in trouble for all their business with Eastern Europe that made them a lot of money - is banned due to EU's Putin sanctions.
Not true. Only a few companies which specialised in trading with Russia where affected and you can argue these companies didn't spread their risk very well. The NL is still firmly the 2nd largest exporter of agricultural products despite the ban on export to Russia.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 11, 2016, 12:59:17 am
If UK exit Putin will have a bottle of champagne

Why should we care? We are not at war with him. Ohh he took an Island with an important naval base and a near 100% ethnically Russian population and helped a Russian region in Georgia.

We Who?I just mentioned a fact! Ooh, Putin shoot down a airliner full of Dutch people, why should you care/ be bothered by such a little pesky thing.. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36350520 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36350520)

Quote
In the mean time we threw tons of money at the Ukraine to destabilize a government and subsequently coming very close to putting a bunch of genocidal neo-nazis into power. For what? To create a money pit the EU is somehow obligated to pour billions into year after year? (Mark my words, we will bail the IMF out in the Ukraine soon. My country's annoying little referendum delayed it a bit, but they will get the money train back on the rails. There is no alternative.)We bombed Lybia to hell and all the EU got out of it was a massive increase in boats with refugees. Our "allies" are a much bigger danger to us than Putin.

The reason EU+ US bombed the pants of Gaddafi was because the dude was about to commit mass murder but WE then after his death deliberately forgot to seize all the European made armory we had sold to the sleazebag. Here the list for you to study:
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/01/eu-arms-exports-libya (http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/01/eu-arms-exports-libya)

But heey, you might like Gaddafi since EU made a deal with the dude to stop immigrants from Africa..How sad that "WE" then bombed the shit out of the dude..

War in Ukraine are "big elephant politics" way above your ideas about neo natzi government, btw majority of those loose nazi cannons are integrated into the Ukraine army(how convenient). If you haven't noticed yet "fascism" is popular these days, both in us europe/us and surprise Russia! Yeah Putin is really a fascist if you look into what he says and his actions! How strange for a dude with sovjiet KGB background but with Russia nothing is impossible even civil war and if its going to be nasty and very dangerous, it's all west's fault as he like to say!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 11, 2016, 01:29:45 am
Did you ever care to look at the rate at which the population in the EU will be shrinking? Those refugees are very necessary to replenish the workforce!

We aren't interchangeable. The big numbers won't even be Middle Easterners which come with at least some academic culture (severely held back through centuries of inbreeding and Islam unfortunately) but sub-Saharan Africans.

Quote
In the upcoming decades we'll be needing a lot more extra people.

We need a lot more solidarity, either solidarity to better spread the wealth generated through an increasingly automated economy. Dedicating a greater part of our resources to elderly care. Or solidarity to do that at the same time as trying to uplift a massive number of immigrants which won't significantly contribute to the economy for a generation (if ever).

The solidarity for the former is possible, the solidarity for the latter will be absent. White flight will gut western Europe if we go down the road we are on now. It will just be the immigrants and people who can't or won't move ... hopefully more like South Africa than Zimbabwe, but who knows. It won't be pretty at any rate.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 11, 2016, 01:59:38 am
Ooh, Putin shoot down a airliner full of Dutch people, why should you care/ be bothered by such a little pesky thing.

It was a warzone, shit happens.

Quote
The reason EU+ US bombed the pants of Gaddafi was because the dude was about to commit mass murder but WE then after his death deliberately forgot to seize all the European made armory we had sold to the sleazebag.

A sleazebag giving his citizens a remarkably high standard of living. Who was planning to change the distribution of oil wealth to direct payment to citizens, bypassing tribal councils. Which made some other sleazebags come for his head with a little nudging from foreign interests.

I'm sure by now most citizens would have rather Gadaffi had slaughtered the rebels (especially women).

Quote
But heey, you might like Gaddafi since EU made a deal with the dude to stop immigrants from Africa.

In the end he did it pretty cheaply too, sure his opening bid was ludicrous ... but that was just Gadaffi being Gadaffi, compared to Erdogan he was an excellent partner.

Quote
How sad that "WE" then bombed the shit out of the dude.

I don't want to put the blame on foreign nations when my own happily collaborated. Merkel fought more against the destruction of Libya than any of our leaders unfortunately.

Quote
War in Ukraine are "big elephant politics" way above your ideas about neo natzi government

Lets say the EU doesn't do its "duty" and dumps billions into Ukraine. With their next default it will become impossible for the IMF to give them more money. So a complete collapse into a failed state would be next, who is then going to take power?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 11, 2016, 03:40:47 am
But for a twice a week podcast on world news dissected - follow the "No Agenda" podcast. Fun as it gets and takes a stab at the established news media and takes what news media reports apart. After EEVBlog and AmpHour they are my favorite "broadcasters" at the moment.

Adam is American but was raised at gitmo nation lowlands, hence the frequent coverage of European issues. 

"In the morning."
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: mtdoc on June 11, 2016, 04:31:00 am
Why should we care? We are not at war with him. Ohh he took an Island with an important naval base and a near 100% ethnically Russian population and helped a Russian region in Georgia.

In the mean time we threw tons of money at the Ukraine to destabilize a government and subsequently coming very close to putting a bunch of genocidal neo-nazis into power. For what? To create a money pit the EU is somehow obligated to pour billions into year after year? (Mark my words, we will bail the IMF out in the Ukraine soon. My country's annoying little referendum delayed it a bit, but they will get the money train back on the rails. There is no alternative.)We bombed Lybia to hell and all the EU got out of it was a massive increase in boats with refugees. Our "allies" are a much bigger danger to us than Putin.

How dare you challenge the Neocon narrative!  How else can we keep people in a state of fear, and give NATO and the MIC a reason to exist? We need constant war or the threat of war.  Herman Goering said it best:

Quote
Naturally the common people don't want war: neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or fascist dictorship, or a parliament or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peace makers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: daqq on June 11, 2016, 05:05:56 am
Quote
Did you ever care to look at the rate at which the population in the EU will be shrinking? Those refugees are very necessary to replenish the workforce! In the upcoming decades we'll be needing a lot more extra people.
Replenishing the population is needed, yes, but I doubt that the ONLY possible way is to import a bunch of culturally incompatible people with a mentality stuck a few centuries in the past. Are you quite sure that that's the only way?

I mean, somehow Europe has managed to NOT have a population decline in the past without resorting to steps that will effectively erase its culture and creating a future giant ghetto near every city. Maybe something else would work?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 11, 2016, 06:26:25 am
But for a twice a week podcast on world news dissected - follow the "No Agenda" podcast. Fun as it gets and takes a stab at the established news media and takes what news media reports apart. After EEVBlog and AmpHour they are my favorite "broadcasters" at the moment.

Adam is American but was raised at gitmo nation lowlands, hence the frequent coverage of European issues. 

"In the morning."
And for those who have not listened yet - and needs a translation to "gitmo nation lowlands" - Adam Curry was raised in the Netherlands *G* and was MTV host and then did a tech startup. The other host - John C. Dvorak - is one of the really "old timers" in computer industry publishing - and I think was one of first PC Magazine writers in the old days.

But both guys play well together like Dave and Chris.

"Boots on the ground".. back at you. :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 11, 2016, 07:49:54 am
Don't feel captured. The exit door is wide open. We've stopped caring about your belly button focused behaviour some time ago.

Bye
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 11, 2016, 08:26:02 am
I am in favor of a Brexit - I sincerely hope it passes. 

I think there is a lot of bullishit and alarmism on both sides, and frankly it's showing up in this thread as well.

The UK existed long before the EU and it did quite well.  This idea that the country suffered rolling blackouts and was economically stunted in growth is laughable.  The whole world experienced somewhat of a technological and economic renaissance over the past 30 years, and it wasn't because they were part of the EU.  And there is no connection with having to accept open borders to get free trade.  They're called trade deals and the USA has successfully negotiated lots of them that provide free trade and open borders have never been even in contemplation as part of the trade deal. 

As for the immigration issue, I am a UK citizen and I spend a fair amount of time there.  Each time I go back, I am amazed at the transformation.  I feel the pro-EU side of the debate paints it as racism, but I don't know anyone in favor of a Brexit who just hates foreigners.  There are so many in the UK now that it's impossible not to mix and mingle with them, nor do I think anyone believes they are all going to pack up and leave if there's a Brexit.  However, the UK is one of the most densely populated countries in the world (excepting small countries and islands like Monaco, Nauuru and such).  When people talk about needing a younger generation due to low birth rates... for what reason?  Is the UK in danger of running out of people and will have nobody to run public services?  No, what people are talking about when they worry about low birth rates are who is going to pay for the welfare spending as the existing Brits age.  Well, as people live longer and welfare spending rises, the base of the pyramid has to get a LOT bigger to support the Ponzi scheme.  But the problem is if the UK imports sufficient workers to keep it alive... what happens when those people age and retire?  Import more?  And more?  Until there are 20,000 people per square km like in Monaco or Macau?  Eventually it comes crashing down and it's a lot better to head these problems off before they become insurmountable.

And last but not least... if being in the EU is a good thing for Britain and for the EU, then if Britain leaves and it turns out it wasn't a good idea, then there is nothing stopping them re-joining.  People say it won't be that easy - really?  If that is true, it means the EU rules based on spite, bias, vindictiveness and not based on common sense and sensible policy.  And if that's the case, better to GTFO sooner than later.

It's sort of like being in a marriage.  Do you want to be married to someone that you stay married to because of how much they say they would ruin your life if you ever got divorced?   That's no basis for any kind of relationship - social or economic.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: SimonD on June 11, 2016, 09:33:36 am
Everyone in Europe knows that EU = Germany and Mr. Schaeuble  ....
Whatever Germany decides is the law for the rest of Europe ...
So  ... BREXIT as soon as possible !!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 11, 2016, 10:27:35 am
Quote
that will effectively erase its culture and creating a future giant ghetto near every city.

Multiculturalism at its best.

End of the day, the voters elected the politicians who enacted such policies.

You eat what you sow. Universally true.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Tandy on June 11, 2016, 11:05:06 am
It is difficult to make an informed decision with all of the misleading nonsense being spouted by the politicians, neither side have presented a clear or credible argument.

In principle I like the idea of a European Union but have deep reservations about the way it is currently organised.

I have written (a rather long) post about some of the issues that are being discussed and my conclusions.

Public Finances
The leave campaign would have you believe that the EU costs Britain £350m a week but the real figure is apparently closer to £248m, either way it seems like a lot of money. It isn't quite that simple though as a lot of the money comes back in grants and subsidies. So I don't buy the argument that there would be a lot of extra money for our public services. My expectation is that not a lot would change in the amount of money available. The only thing that would change is that our elected government would be the ones deciding where to spend the money instead of the EU. In theory a good thing but in practice they will just waste it and probably give themselves pay rises while they are at it for being so good at wasting it. On the other hand it is very selfish of us to say we are not going to help poorer countries in Europe such as Greece because we want to keep all our money to ourselves. I don't think it is an issue that I would consider makes much influence to how I would vote.

Trade
So much has been said about trade. Yes it is convenient that when we make a sale to an EU destination that we don't have to deal with duty (tariffs) and VAT arrangements are relatively simple. But then again a majority of the products we deal with are from China or the United States so we have to pay duty on those imports and that cost gets passed on to customers anyway. So maybe in the longer term better trade agreements with the US and China may make things cheaper for us all. Short term there will be some disruption while new arrangements were sorted out. In order to sell products into Europe UK companies would still have to comply with EU rules such as CE marking and RoHS directives so it isn't as if magically there will be less red tape. The EU is struggling to negotiate a trade agreement with the US that is fair, TTIP is biased in the favour of the US and wouldn't want to be part of that. But you have to ask if a large union of countries does not have the strength to negotiate a trade agreement that  is on equal terms with the US then what chance does a little individual country like the UK. The so called special relationship is nothing more than the UK and US speaking a similar language and the US having huge influence over the UK since we borrowed so much money from the US during two world wars without which we would have been bankrupt. So again, who knows exactly what would happen but one thing is for sure people want to buy stuff and so a way will be found to make that possible. So again apart from short term problems while things are up in the air I don't see it being a long term issue either way.

Immigration
Oh please! stop reading the Daily Mail and other so called news papers. While Britain is one of the more desirable countries to come to in Europe for economic migrants not everyone wants to come here. I don't blame anyone who wants to better their life moving to a country with better economic prospects, you would do the same. But the fact is people come here to work not just to get benefits, some may come for the NHS but equally many are working minimum wage jobs that many British born people refuse to do choosing to live on benefits instead of working hard in a physically demanding or unpleasant job for very low pay. Big business wants to keep the migration flow happening because they get a fresh supply of people willing to work for next to nothing. In an ideal world the EU would work to help accelerate the economic growth of those countries so people don't have to uproot their lives in search of a better future. The biggest immigration problem however is people from outside the EU and we don't seem to have got that under control.

Expansion
This one does concern me, the push for continued expansion of the EU is largely responsible for many of the problems, Taking on countries like Greece caused them to take on regulation that they could not afford to implement and has turned what was a poor but stable economy into a basket case. The very idea of including Turkey in the EU seems like trying to build an empire not unifying a group of neighbouring countries. If we can’t stop this continued expansion then that to my mind is a reason to be out, as I think further trouble is on the horizon.

Integration
The EU is forever trying to impose greater control over member countries seemingly trying to make a United States of Europe with a federal government. There are some valuable laws that cover some very important issues. It makes a lot of sense for countries to agree on common standards so that people can travel, work and trade in other countries without being arrested for wearing the wrong clothes, following the wrong religion or having sexual preferences that don’t meet with the standards of a government. But I would rather that the EU stick to the major issues and stop messing about with trivial things. For example it might seem good that now we get cheaper mobile calls while roaming through Europe but really is that something that should be put into law? It is this kind of meddling that makes me think there are far to many bureaucrats with time on their hands on the payroll. That money could be spent on far better things like helping fix problems in countries that are struggling.

Democratic Accountability
My biggest concern about the EU is the way that there is little transparency in the law making process and the process for introducing laws is not fully democratic. The elected Euro MPs can not propose new laws, amendments or repeal of existing laws.



What I would like to see would be slimmed down EU that only deals with the significant issues of basic human rights, environmental issues and trade etc. Not trivial things like how much it costs to make a call or how orange an orange needs to be to be sold as an orange. I would like to see this done in a proper democratic way so that the member countries can propose laws and amendments to the existing ones and attempt to convince the other countries to support proposals based on merit. I would also like to see a halt to further expansion of the EU or at the very least a managed expansion programme where new countries are associate members while the rest of the EU helps to bring the new members economy in-line with the standards of the rest of the union to prevent the mass exodus from new countries. It is not in the interests of any new country to loose significant numbers of their population or for other countries to have to deal with the sudden influx of new people requiring somewhere to live.

The problem is as far as I can see this can not happen with the EU as it is now, the current leadership are using for ever more expansion and integration and the member countries have very little say in the direction of the EU. The UK has never really been fully behind the EU project, seemingly being on the opposition more often than not for anything the EU is doing so I wonder why we are part of it in the first place. While Britain is probably the most vocal about its opposition to the EU we are far from the only country with reservations and if we did leave I think it would start a bit of a chain reaction with some other countries watching with interest and following suit if it worked out for Britain.

Unfortunately I think it would take a big event like a country leaving the EU to actually make them stop and review where they are going with it. What bureaucrats fail to realise is that as much as we would like everything to fit into simple clearly defined categories, life isn’t like that, people don’t like to feel like they are being told what to do paying more taxes for the privilege.
The right balance has to be found and at the moment I think the EU is trying to hard to gain power. So as the reforms that I would like to see happen are seemingly impossible while we are in the EU I think leaving would be the better option. It would have some short term consequences no doubt as everything is thrown into uncertainty but it is probably the action that needs to be taken for the long term benefit of everyone to stop the EU forcing their laws onto countries who never elected the officials.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 11, 2016, 11:10:59 am
Quote
Unfortunately I think it would take a big event like a country leaving the EU to actually make them stop and review where they are going with it.

that, I think, is the biggest contribution the leave campaign will make to the EU, regardless of the outcome of the votes.

Because of it, everyone benefits.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 11, 2016, 11:25:17 am
@Tandy: on one hand you say the EU should be about making trade easier but on the other hand you say the EU shouldn't meddle with trade (phone costs, oranges, etc). Creating a level playing field when it comes to trade requires setting detailed rules for companies.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Tandy on June 11, 2016, 12:04:29 pm
@Tandy: on one hand you say the EU should be about making trade easier but on the other hand you say the EU shouldn't meddle with trade (phone costs, oranges, etc). Creating a level playing field when it comes to trade requires setting detailed rules for companies.
Making trade easier by avoiding artificial barriers such as tariffs, as a consumer I like that I can buy something from a company in France or Germany without getting import charges that i would get if I bought something from Australia or the United States. I see the setting of price caps on call charges being meddling in the market.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 11, 2016, 12:45:04 pm
@Tandy: on one hand you say the EU should be about making trade easier but on the other hand you say the EU shouldn't meddle with trade (phone costs, oranges, etc). Creating a level playing field when it comes to trade requires setting detailed rules for companies.
Free trade is not an all or nothing thing. At minimum you can just reduce import taxes.

The EU with its utopian feature creep made the ex empire a colony.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 11, 2016, 01:09:03 pm
Haven't had time to read the whole of your post yet.

Trade
But then again a majority of the products we deal with are from China or the United States so we have to pay duty on those imports and that cost gets passed on to customers anyway.
The single largest trading partner for exports is the US with about 13% of our total. China comes quite far down the list. The EU represents just under 50% of our overall export trade although that figure is falling.

China 3rd or 4th largest partner where imports are concerned but, overall a bit over half of our imports come from the EU.

Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/521888/OTS_Release_0316.pdf (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/521888/OTS_Release_0316.pdf)

The value of goods "exported"1 to the UK from the EU is about 16% of the total value of EU exported goods - while we are the biggest single trading partner some 5/6ths of EU trade goes elsewhere.

So, in percentage terms we need the EU rather more than they need us. Of course trade would not stop overnight but the potential to damage the GB economy is fairly large and it does not take much of a fall in the UK GDP to wipe out any "saving" we get from not having to pay into the EU.

1] Technically it is not an export because of the single market.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 11, 2016, 01:33:50 pm
Quote
as a consumer I like that I can buy something from a company in France or Germany without getting import charges that i would get if I bought something from Australia or the United States.

that benefit doesn't come without its own externalities.

Each one of us is a consumer and a producer (to other consumers). Free trade means not just you can buy something cheap (exposing local producers to competition from overseas), but also others can buy things you produce cheap (exposing you as a producer to competition from overseas).

In the end, certain segments of the population tend to get hurt more than benefiting from free trade, and those people happen to be ones that can least sustain adversity.

Thus the rise of poverty and shrinking (lower-)middle class.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 11, 2016, 02:17:49 pm
Oh please! stop reading the Daily Mail and other so called news papers.

How about Klaus Schwab? Who thinks it's possible to get a refugee stream of 1 Billion to move north?

Quote
The biggest immigration problem however is people from outside the EU and we don't seem to have got that under control.

It's impossible to get under control within our allowed parameters. Human rights law and the Geneva convention on refugees are nooses which we aren't allowed to remove. Yet we will have to to survive, it will be easier with a smaller government.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: madires on June 11, 2016, 02:44:56 pm
The EU with its utopian feature creep made the ex empire a colony.

That's a common prejudice and misconception. The UK has some special deals and discounts. For example, the Pro BREXITs are telling everyone how much the EU costs but forget to substract the discounts and the subsidies. Beware of propaganda!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: continuo on June 11, 2016, 02:50:22 pm
ACHTUNG! STAY!

(Or the UK won't be eligible for future scope months because of insignificance)   :popcorn:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: R_Gtx on June 11, 2016, 03:01:52 pm
BUT if we want access to the common market we are likely to have to accept free movement of labour as well
That's a myth.  However unfortunately we don't have any negotiating power until we leave so it's pointless to predict the deal until we have some power back. 
Really? UK screws EU every now and then. Like new EU directive, fuck it because we don't like it, all other countries still need to accept it which puts them in disadvantage. There are so many things UK refused to accept or made EU to accept special preferences for UK, that you will be tired to count. So I really doubt that EU exploits UK, IMO it is completely other way. But if UK exits, guess it will be worse for all, both UK and the rest of EU, at least in near future.

Official EU figures:

Total EU spending in Latvia – € 1.062 billion                                   Total EU spending in the UK: € 6.985 billion
Total Latvian contribution to the EU budget – € 0.244 billion          Total UK contribution to the EU budget: € 11.342 billion

So, for Latvians, it is a case of bending over and doing as your told, something you've been doing since the Soviet occupation of 1940. Whilst for Britons, the case is best stated by quoting from "Rule, Brittania":

Quote
....
Britannia rule the waves.
Britons never, never, never shall be slaves.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bookaboo on June 11, 2016, 03:04:32 pm
I live and work in the UK and with the caveat that I have not done in depth analysis I'm broadly in favour of staying in.
The main (maybe only) argument for leaving is the "benefit tourism" problem, however if that's what concerns people why not just fix the benefits system to give incentives work instead of subsidies for laziness? Of course that wont happen as all politicians need the votes of those that abuse that same system.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 11, 2016, 03:10:12 pm
The EU with its utopian feature creep made the ex empire a colony.

That's a common prejudice and misconception. The UK has some special deals and discounts. For example, the Pro BREXITs are telling everyone how much the EU costs but forget to substract the discounts and the subsidies. Beware of propaganda!

I was not referring to money.

Frankly, I am surprised how much the anti Brexit argument are focused on economic benefits, ignoring aspects such as sovereignty, culture, history, tradition and values, as if the UK is merely a corporation whose main goal is to maximize it's profits.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 11, 2016, 03:10:20 pm
Total EU spending in Latvia – € 1.062 billion                                   Total EU spending in the UK: € 6.985 billion
Total Latvian contribution to the EU budget – € 0.244 billion          Total UK contribution to the EU budget: € 11.342 billion
The thing is, barely any of that money stays in Latvia and most of it goes back the same way how it came in.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: madires on June 11, 2016, 03:31:50 pm
I was not referring to money.

Frankly, I am surprised how much the anti Brexit argument are focused on economic benefits, ignoring aspects such as sovereignty, culture, history, tradition and values, as if the UK is merely a corporation whose main goal is to maximize it's profits.

Don't have all EU countries their own culture and history? Basically it boils down to money and political power when making multilateral treaties.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 11, 2016, 03:37:32 pm
Quote
The main (maybe only) argument for leaving is the "benefit tourism" problem

really?

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: R_Gtx on June 11, 2016, 04:18:48 pm
Quote
Did you ever care to look at the rate at which the population in the EU will be shrinking? Those refugees are very necessary to replenish the workforce! In the upcoming decades we'll be needing a lot more extra people.
Replenishing the population is needed, yes, but I doubt that the ONLY possible way is to import a bunch of culturally incompatible people with a mentality stuck a few centuries in the past. Are you quite sure that that's the only way?

I mean, somehow Europe has managed to NOT have a population decline in the past without resorting to steps that will effectively erase its culture and creating a future giant ghetto near every city. Maybe something else would work?

For many years I was ambivalent towards the EU, until four years ago I read http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18519395. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18519395.) The referendum can't come soon enough.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 11, 2016, 04:35:22 pm
The UK has some special deals and discounts. For example, the Pro BREXITs are telling everyone how much the EU costs but forget to substract the discounts and the subsidies.
I do tend to be suspicious of entities which take large chunks of my money and then expect me to be grateful when dribbles of it are returned in the guise of 'deals', 'discounts' and 'subsidies'.

Quote
Beware of propaganda!
Excellent advice. Unfortunately distortion, exaggeration and alarmist propaganda seem to be endemic on both sides of the campaign. Actual facts are hard to come by.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: woodchips on June 11, 2016, 05:08:20 pm
Some more general points to ponder.

Am I the only small manufacturer to be put out of business by the WEEE directive? That there was never a de minimus level of produce weight below which it didn't apply.

Am I the only one to wonder about RoHS where my 50g of lead in my solder has to be banned? But the shooting fraternity can continue blasting lead shot around the countryside willy nilly?

What I find really frightening is the appearance of a complete lack of skill, experience, expertise etc within the EU. Look at the Euro, the EU were told it wouldn't work but ignored. What about the overcatch fisheries policy of throwing it back in the sea? What are the odds on a black swan (see the book by Nasim Nicholas Talib) moment, a devastating unforseen disaster created by people, like the 2008 crash, like the 2010 Euro crisis. I rather think that we will be bailing out the rest of Europe after one of these.

Is the 24th June much like 1st September 1939, do we REALLY have to save Europe, again?

These points are for discussion, I am thinking deeply about the choice, other people's ideas and experiences are important.



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 11, 2016, 05:24:29 pm
Quote
Some more general points to ponder.

I'm a big believer of EU: I think strategically speaking, the old Europe cannot compete with the US, Russia or China. A unified market and intensified competition tend to drive productivity and enhance welfare for all member countries over the long run.

However, that's built on two assumptions that are violently violated during the implementation:

1) EU is an economic union, not a political / sovereign union. That means individual member countries should retain its sovereignty and has a say on all other aspects of its inner workings.

2) member countries are highly similar and share common goals.

Essentially EU should have been implemented as the United States pre-19th century. Instead, they implemented a 20th century United States. Its east-ward expansion was purely political and suicidal, and driven by people who's still living in the 1970s.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 11, 2016, 06:36:31 pm
Just  |O

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/10/eu-referendum-panicked-remain-camp-plans-to-take-out-boris-as-po/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/10/eu-referendum-panicked-remain-camp-plans-to-take-out-boris-as-po/)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 11, 2016, 06:56:08 pm
Frankly, I am surprised how much the anti Brexit argument are focused on economic benefits, ignoring aspects such as sovereignty, culture, history, tradition and values,
Culture, history, values, etc change rapidly so there is little use in preserving those. A country is nothing more than a piece of land and the people in it listening to a centralised government. Maybe you feel connected to your fellow countrymen but that is all made up to keep you quiet. The 'us-them' thinking pattern is a very easy way to control people.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 11, 2016, 07:04:10 pm
Frankly, I am surprised how much the anti Brexit argument are focused on economic benefits, ignoring aspects such as sovereignty, culture, history, tradition and values,
Culture, history, values, etc change rapidly so there is little use in preserving those. A country is nothing more than a piece of land and the people in it listening to a centralised government. Maybe you feel connected to your fellow countrymen but that is all made up to keep you quiet. The 'us-them' thinking pattern is a very easy way to control people.
I see your point, the UK and Pakistan are basically the same thing, if not now than very soon. :)

Anyway, good luck with the multiculturalism.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 11, 2016, 07:44:12 pm
Well the US went from Indian tribes to European and is now moving towards becoming Latino / Hispanic.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 11, 2016, 08:01:13 pm
If I could be reasonably sure that the EU had any chance of reforming itself then I'd vote remain. As it stands now, it is on a stated course of further fiscal parity and defence integration among other federalist aims. Its policy making is now largely around maintaining an army of self-serving politicians and their henchfolk.

Just a few weeks ago the EU had a golden opportunity to show they could change, and attempt a compromise with Cameron, but instead he was sent home with barely crumbs. That short sightedness and arrogance turned out to be a much more dangerous game of poker than they or anyone else expected.

The negativity and politics of fear common in the debate at large I personally find very patronising, rather than concentrating on the issues, and I am sure that too is part of the extraordinary polls we're seeing.

Putting up foreign politicians like Obama, Merkel and today Schäuble is also hardly the way to encourage already disenfranchised floating voters concerned about foreign influence at all levels.

As an earlier poster suggested, the EU needs a bloody nose administering, and needs to fundamentally adjust its course if it is to survive. Regrettably, the only way the EU is capable of changing is to give it a clear message by leaving. For their own survival they'll have to change, and sharpish too, if they are to avoid the wider domino effect predicted.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 11, 2016, 08:08:37 pm
Well the US went from Indian tribes to European and is now moving towards becoming Latino / Hispanic.

Yep, with very drastic cultural differences. If you are OK living in any culture then you are good to go.

BTW, I would take the US as the gold standard, we have our own problems, some  are similar to Europe but with local variations and at different scale.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 11, 2016, 08:35:57 pm
Quote
Everyone in Europe knows that EU = Germany and Mr. Schaeuble  ...

You are wrong ,Merkel and Schaeuble are  sheepdogs of the Europe Lords that have to control to the lambs. But they are doing very bad work and soon they will be retired

The worse thing that could do the british goverment is to get the pimp and to defy to Europe Lords and USA Lords(Remember that UK are ambassadors and the head beach from USA  at Europe ).

And if i was one Europe Lord will grant the exit without celebrating the referendum , at less of week i will put tariffs and cut-off the  UK right's to CEE.

Consequences, the europe will lose the UK market's , but the UK will lose the importants trading corporations from the London City ,and these will go to Frankfurt ,and other place from europe.
the last  big factories and corporations  that still stayed, maybe they will move out the UK to Ireland or Spain . The worst of all, the devaluation of the pound sterling to 40%.

How many time could the british government support without the people will go to revolution?

One thing to British,anybody is indispensable   

https://youtu.be/T1L6jQ0Pfrw?t=1m8s (https://youtu.be/T1L6jQ0Pfrw?t=1m8s)





Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 11, 2016, 08:38:35 pm
Quote
I would take the US as the gold standard

For what?

For its welfare programs? for its corrupt politicians and ever expanding governments? highly charged political environment? non-union employees can be defined as union members by government decree (NJ)? or people of Indian and Chinese heritage can be defined out of "Minority" (CA)? ...

If anyone told me 20 years ago someone like Sanders would give Clinton a run for her money in the US, I would have laughed him/her off.

If you want to know as a society how far left we have come, take out the two parties platforms in the 1950s or the 1960s and compare them vs. now. The republican party today is far more liberal than the democratic party then.

That should tell you all you need to know about the US.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 11, 2016, 08:39:52 pm
values, etc change rapidly so there is little use in preserving those.

This is nihilism.

Brexit, non brexit, thermonuclear war, genocide ... all equally valid under given sets of values.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 11, 2016, 08:43:30 pm
Quote
Consequences, the europe will lose the UK market's , but the UK will lose the importants trading corporations from the London City ,and these will go to Frankfurt ,and other place from europe.
the last  big factories and corporations  that still stayed, maybe they will move out the UK to Ireland or Spain .

Dire concequencies. The UK was such a barbaric place before EU came to her rescue, :)

Quote
The worst of all, the devaluation of the pound sterling to 40%.

Empty words that you don't even believe, unless you put all your money, your parents money, your kids education funds, your retirement, and mortgaged your house to bet on that devaluation.

Making predictions is easy, even a monkey can do it. it is another story to put your money where your mouth is.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 11, 2016, 08:51:56 pm

thermonuclear war, genocide

We've only been told those will happen if we vote to leave.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: daqq on June 11, 2016, 08:53:23 pm
Frankly, I am surprised how much the anti Brexit argument are focused on economic benefits, ignoring aspects such as sovereignty, culture, history, tradition and values,
Culture, history, values, etc change rapidly so there is little use in preserving those. A country is nothing more than a piece of land and the people in it listening to a centralised government. Maybe you feel connected to your fellow countrymen but that is all made up to keep you quiet. The 'us-them' thinking pattern is a very easy way to control people.
Dunno, I for one would very much like my future grand kids not to be forced to conform to, say, medieval dress codes and get stoned/beheaded if they don't, all in the name of someones imaginary friend imported from the Middle East. As such I'd very much prefer to leave our current way of life intact.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 11, 2016, 08:58:57 pm
the UK will lose the importants trading corporations from the London City ,and these will go to Frankfurt

Exactly the same fears were spread 20 years ago about the UK not adopting the Euro, and for some time I remember it was quite unsettling in the City until it was realised that it made bugger all difference, in fact quite the opposite.

I was never in favour of the Euro either, and that was the same thin-end-of-the-wedge concerns which have since come to bear fruit.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 11, 2016, 09:21:01 pm
Frankly, I am surprised how much the anti Brexit argument are focused on economic benefits, ignoring aspects such as sovereignty, culture, history, tradition and values,
Culture, history, values, etc change rapidly so there is little use in preserving those. A country is nothing more than a piece of land and the people in it listening to a centralised government. Maybe you feel connected to your fellow countrymen but that is all made up to keep you quiet. The 'us-them' thinking pattern is a very easy way to control people.
Dunno, I for one would very much like my future grand kids not to be forced to conform to, say, medieval dress codes and get stoned/beheaded if they don't, all in the name of someones imaginary friend
Interestingly the western society wasn't very different only a couple of hundred years ago. Therefore I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly. After all the way the western society is now is much safer to live in and in the end people want to feel safe and raise their kids.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 11, 2016, 09:58:35 pm


...
I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly...

Good luck.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 11, 2016, 10:02:03 pm
Exactly the same fears were spread 20 years ago about the UK not adopting the Euro, and for some time I remember it was quite unsettling in the City until it was realised that it made bugger all difference, in fact quite the opposite.
Perhaps but you have to ask yourself whether the UK could have done better with the euro instead of the pound. When dealing with UK suppliers and customers there is always the risk of the exchange rate going up and down so I very much like to deal in euro. Therefore I'd rather deal with a German supplier than one from the UK. Either way someone has to pay for the exchange rate risk which is where a supplier in a Euro-country definitely has an advantage.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 11, 2016, 10:10:23 pm
Interestingly the western society wasn't very different only a couple of hundred years ago. Therefore I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly. After all the way the western society is now is much safer to live in and in the end people want to feel safe and raise their kids.

Hand outs don't seem to promote progressiveness in Islamic society, not in the west, not in the oil rich nations. Quite the contrary in fact, they use the free time to become more orthodox and procreate. Much the same behavior can be seen with Haredi, though with less violence to the host society if left alone.

In the end they might reinvent themselves, in the mean time they will demand welfare and wage jihad.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 11, 2016, 10:12:09 pm
Frankly, I am surprised how much the anti Brexit argument are focused on economic benefits, ignoring aspects such as sovereignty, culture, history, tradition and values,
Culture, history, values, etc change rapidly so there is little use in preserving those. A country is nothing more than a piece of land and the people in it listening to a centralised government. Maybe you feel connected to your fellow countrymen but that is all made up to keep you quiet. The 'us-them' thinking pattern is a very easy way to control people.
Dunno, I for one would very much like my future grand kids not to be forced to conform to, say, medieval dress codes and get stoned/beheaded if they don't, all in the name of someones imaginary friend
Interestingly the western society wasn't very different only a couple of hundred years ago. Therefore I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly. After all the way the western society is now is much safer to live in and in the end people want to feel safe and raise their kids.
You should visit some Muslim ghetto in France to see how well they adapt.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: IanB on June 11, 2016, 10:22:14 pm
Therefore I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly.

Actually, the opposite seems to be true. When comparing values between Pakistani immigrants living in the UK and Pakistan itself, it appears that Pakistan has moved on while the immigrants in the UK have been holding fast to the values they brought with them decades ago.

We can see a parallel of this in the way that the USA is still influenced by religious and cultural values from 17th century Europe in a way that is unrecognizable to Europeans from modern times.

It will take people hundreds of years to adapt, and most of us can't wait that long.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 11, 2016, 10:23:02 pm
Interestingly the western society wasn't very different only a couple of hundred years ago. Therefore I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly. After all the way the western society is now is much safer to live in and in the end people want to feel safe and raise their kids.

Christianity went through a reformation which transformed European culture, that's never ever going to happen to Islam.
The people trotting off to join ISIS and expecting burqas to be worn are not 1st generation immigrants, they are the 3rd generation lot.
If Western society suited them then there wouldn't be a problem, the fact that closed Muslim ghettos exist in every European city says otherwise.
If our schools and cultural/civic values suited them then there wouldn't be 140 Islamic Faith schools in the UK, schools that regularly get condemned by Ofsted as promoting an extreme form of Islam.

This is the problem, the Left sees the immigration of a minority religious group and expects it to be exactly like when the Sikhs arrived from Uganda. They fundamentally do not understand the medieval culture these people bring with them.
The same Socialist/Marxist Left wing party in the UK has a large number of high profile anti-Semitic members, Islam is a natural bedfellow for them. That's a fast route to political power for a religion that's essentially a Totalitarian political system in it's own right.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 11, 2016, 10:30:24 pm
The same Socialist/Marxist Left wing party in the UK has a large number of high profile anti-Semitic members

They were mostly just anti-Israel, they become anti-semites after enough character assassination comes their way for having that view. If you are going to be called one regardless why even try to stick your neck out and piss off Muslim voters by battling proper anti-semitism?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 11, 2016, 10:35:09 pm
They were mostly just anti-Israel, they become anti-semites after enough character assassination comes their way for having that view.

There's a number of Muslim MPs who "say" they are only anti-Israel because of the Palestinian issue, the fact is many Arabs hate the Palestinians. They simply hate the Israelis because they are Jews, just as they hate the Jews in France and the Jews in the UK.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 11, 2016, 10:49:00 pm
Be that as it may, if you keep calling the bleeding hearts who are true believers about stuff like BDS and right of return anti-semites you are going to turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Don't drive them into the arms of the Muslims, it's not like there aren't plenty of jews saying the same thing.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 11, 2016, 10:54:14 pm
Quote
We can see a parallel of this in the way that the USA is still influenced by religious and cultural values from 17th century Europe in a way that is unrecognizable to Europeans from modern times.

So since the 17th century, those "enlightened" Europeans still managed to produce the only two world wars this planet has seen, a few genocides, a holocaust, a dude named Hitler, some really good propagandists, almost got wiped out by the Nazis, and then by the Red Army, if not for those "unrecognizable" and barbaric Americans, and still got their cities connected by ghettos and no-go zones. Didn't I hear a recent story of a Paris waitress getting attacked for serving "religiously in-appropriate" drinks on Ramadan?

I would rather that you save your "enlightenment" for yourself.

:)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 11, 2016, 11:04:15 pm
I would rather that you save your "enlightenment" for yourself.
:)

I don't think it was meant as a wholly negative cultural quirk, because all it boils down to in the USA is a political debate over abortion and dinosaurs.

In the UK our people get their throats slit and our children raped over this retarded medieval shit.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 11, 2016, 11:43:21 pm
Quote
We can see a parallel of this in the way that the USA is still influenced by religious and cultural values from 17th century Europe in a way that is unrecognizable to Europeans from modern times.

So since the 17th century, those "enlightened" Europeans still managed to produce the only two world wars this planet has seen, a few genocides, a holocaust, a dude named Hitler, some really good propagandists, almost got wiped out by the Nazis, and then by the Red Army, if not for those "unrecognizable" and barbaric Americans, and still got their cities connected by ghettos and no-go zones. Didn't I hear a recent story of a Paris waitress getting attacked for serving "religiously in-appropriate" drinks on Ramadan?

I would rather that you save your "enlightenment" for yourself.

 :)

No you wouldn't.

Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin were active participants in the Age of Enlightenment in Europe, and its ideals were incorporated into the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution of the United States.

The good old US of A has also engaged in one or two dubious practices since the 17th century, in case you have forgotten.

Do remove that sizeable chip from your shoulder and cease belabouring Europeans with America's not entirely altruistic entry into the Second World War.

 :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 12, 2016, 12:25:27 am
Since the industrial revolution entire communities have been built to serve an industry, be it mining iron ore or coal, steel manufacture, ship building and so on. These new communities were mostly made up from "migrants" from the agricultural industry or from other sectors and from other countries. When the old heavy industries disappear and nothing has replaced them due to a lack of long term government planning and investment, people are going to move on, well at least those who can will move on.

Fast forward to the 50's and 60's, manufacturing industrial boom, import cheap labour from the West Indies and India to fulfill manufacturing capacity. Hence that's why we have very well established and integrated West Indian and Asian communities.
In time, the manufacturing industries that needed to import Commonwealth citizens in the first place have disappeared and a lack of investment and long term planning now leaves these communities with nothing.

It's probably the same scenario through much of post industrial Europe especially eastern Europe now that the Soviet Union has collapsed and left poorer nations to fend for themselves. It's no wonder people migrate and the disenfranchised become extremist.

I think our economic problems are our own making and very little do do with EU membership. In or out you still have to address the issues of long term planning and a decline in manufacturing.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 12, 2016, 12:41:47 am
I think our economic problems are our own making and very little do do with EU membership. In or out you still have to address the issues of long term planning and a decline in manufacturing.
At least Thatcher (finally) got rid of a lot of labour intensive subsidized industries in the 80's and getting the tax system back on the rails. I still recall the massive riots on the news. The decline of UK manufacturing also has a lot to do with lack of quality. UK built cars are infamous for that and a prime example of how easy it is to sink an entire industry due to people not being motivated to do a good job.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 12, 2016, 12:56:19 am
Quote
I think our economic problems are our own making and very little do do with EU membership.

A more productive society will need to export to realize its competitive advantages and to build-up wealth. Unfortunately, two things necessarily happen:

1) as wealth goes up, the marginal utility of wealth goes down and people tend to not want to work as hard. That means their productivity levels off. It also means that people in poorer countries tend to want to work harder and becomes more productive.

2) as free trade expands, it exposes you to competition from other parts of the world. This puts particular pressure on the less mobile resources - the labor, as capital is more fluid.

when you combine those two together, you will conclude that a) over a long-period of time, quality of life tends to level off all over the globe. b) people on the lower-end of value-add will get hurt.

Thus, this arm race for middle income families to send their kids to good schools to advance or to keep pace with competition.

In the end, the tiger-moms are actually quite smart.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 12, 2016, 05:36:24 am
Quote
At least Thatcher (finally) got rid of a lot of labour intensive subsidized industries in the 80's and getting the tax system back on the rails. I still recall the massive riots on the news. The decline of UK manufacturing also has a lot to do with lack of quality. UK built cars are infamous for that and a prime example of how easy it is to sink an entire industry due to people not being motivated to do a good job

That the people were dismotivated was guilt of the labor union, there are that remember that the british labour union were more strongest than the french and Spanish.
Then the bussinessmans began to close or gave to death the corporation because it was impossible to achieve a economic goal. 

Simply ,the british suffered the same than Spanish when Franco died, and the vertical labour union(Falange y las JONS) became to horizontal labour union (CCOO and UGT), they began to strikes and boycotts
than the spanish bussinesman decided to close the factories and corporations. Beetwen 1975-1982  the 30% of the factories and corporations closed and the unemployed grew up until 2 Millon of the people withou job, when before hadn't unemployed.

And the same history will repeat with the french.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FreddyVictor on June 12, 2016, 06:38:27 am
<snip>
And the same history will repeat with the french.
speaking of the French, saw this recently (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/07/france-shuns-europe-as-brexit-revolt-spreads/)
Quote
France shuns Europe as Brexit revolt spreads

could be a 'domino effect' ....
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Karel on June 12, 2016, 07:50:28 am
Therefore I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly. After all the way the western society is now is much safer to live in and in the end people want to feel safe and raise their kids.

On the contrary, people from the mid-east tend to radicalize more and more.
Try to walk around dressed as an orthodox jew and see what happens.

Historically, jews are the canary in the coal mine.
When a society goes down the drain, it starts with discriminating and killing jews.
You see it everywhere now in Europe. There's no synagogue without some military with big guns to protect it.
It's a bloody shame.


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: daqq on June 12, 2016, 10:17:44 am
Quote
Therefore I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly.
That's great! When that happens call me. Until then, would they mind very much going through their "lets implement medieval law for everyone and explode" period some place far far away?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 12, 2016, 10:32:59 am
Quote
You see it everywhere now in Europe. There's no synagogue without some military with big guns to protect it.
It's a bloody shame.

So hundreds of years of "enlightenment" later, those "enlightened" Europeans are just as barbaric as they were?

Well, doesn't sound those years of "enlightenment" have done much for them. :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 12, 2016, 10:35:03 am
(http://x3.cdn03.imgwykop.pl/c3201142/comment_SoinTfsGllC4GKoHw4QcfHqqYBSf3ZlF.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 12, 2016, 10:35:59 am
Quote
You see it everywhere now in Europe. There's no synagogue without some military with big guns to protect it.
It's a bloody shame.

So hundreds of years of "enlightenment" later, those "enlightened" Europeans are just as barbaric as they were?

Well, doesn't sound those years of "enlightenment" have done much for them. :)

You may have misread. The message says 'protect'.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: RGB255_0_0 on June 12, 2016, 10:39:31 am
(http://x3.cdn03.imgwykop.pl/c3201142/comment_SoinTfsGllC4GKoHw4QcfHqqYBSf3ZlF.jpg)
I suspect this is satire but there are people who actually think retardedly like this.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 12, 2016, 11:05:14 am
As of how it could directly affect me or others dealing with electronics parts, I guess Farnell will move most of it's business from the UK it to their Liege facility or build another facility in EU. Otherwise it will just kill their business. I will think twice before ordering to later deal with customs or pay additional fees of 7x of the delivery cost so UPS deal with customs themselves, still would need ton of paperwork. Also no next day delivery.
Guess there will be no point of buying anything other than small cheap things on on ebay from UK sellers.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Nauris on June 12, 2016, 11:29:47 am
As of how it could directly affect me or others dealing with electronics parts, I guess Farnell will move most of it's business from the UK it to their Liege facility or build another facility in EU. Otherwise it will just kill their business. I will think twice before ordering to later deal with customs or pay additional fees of 7x of the delivery cost so UPS deal with customs themselves, still would need ton of paperwork. Also no next day delivery.
Guess there will be no point of buying anything other than small cheap things on on ebay from UK sellers.

If Digi-key can deliver their products in two or three days from USA (not member of EU) to my door duties paid, without paperwork and VAT invoiced later I would be suprised if Farnell cannot do same.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Koen on June 12, 2016, 11:30:08 am
I fail to see what it would change for Farnell.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Jeroen3 on June 12, 2016, 11:43:05 am
Not much will change. It will be economic suicide to immediately start taxing all exports.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 12, 2016, 12:09:04 pm


...
I'm inclined to believe the people from the middle-east will adapt rapidly...

Good luck.

After living in the ME for 10 years - I can say that even the Middle Eastern Tribes (yes that is what they are) - are MORE racist than ANYTHING i have seen elsewhere. Even among / towards other local "Tribes" - which is why you do not see the rich middle eastern countries take ANY refuges despite many from Syria could walk there in much shorter time.

To live in a ME oil country - you get VISA for maximum 3 years - and you have to be able to support yourself and have a sponsor. To get family in you need to earn above a threshold to support the family. Then every 3 years - your VISA needs renewal.  To setup a local business you need a LOCAL sponsor who will own 51% of your business - unless you setup in a free-zone. But if you are in a free-zone you can't do business "locally" but have to sell via a local Agent (again minimum 51% owned by a "local") - to apply for trademarks - business have to be 100% owned by a local! A 3 year VISA can cost about 1000 GBP to get done. So why do we not do that in the EU?

1. Max 3 year VISA's - can be renewed but never for more than 3 years at a time - and never permanent
2. Charge for VISA's
3. Business only in 51% co-op with a "local"

The rich oil countries are flooded with people from other Arab speaking countries  - who can make good money there (Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, Moroccan, Jordanian  etc) - but the rich states will not take people who can not earn their own living. They all head for Europe where we take them in at a huge cost.

But now - all the ME refugees talk about - is how lovely it is to live in the EU where you don't have to work for a living and everything is given to you. Workshops are held in "local EU countries laws" - so upon arrival they know what to say - and what to ask for. (or demand)

Yes - I am all in for helping people in need - but lets help them closer to their home - and just because they get entry (VISA) it should only become permanent in extraordinary circumstances. Lets help the ones in real need - where it is cost effective and we can provide for them closer to home - so WHEN war stops - it is an easier trip home. We can build houses and villages for 10-20% of the cost in Turkey - and feed, educate and care for them for another 10-20% of what it costs to have them come to EU and house and feed them here.

But EU representatives does simply not get it at all.

/rant over


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 12, 2016, 12:42:00 pm
Yes - I am all in for helping people in need - but lets help them closer to their home - and just because they get entry (VISA) it should only become permanent in extraordinary circumstances. Lets help the ones in real need - where it is cost effective and we can provide for them closer to home - so WHEN war stops - it is an easier trip home. We can build houses and villages for 10-20% of the cost in Turkey - and feed, educate and care for them for another 10-20% of what it costs to have them come to EU and house and feed them here.
No way EU should give any money to Turkey. Because Turkey is one of the main reasons why the war in Syria and this flood of people exists in the first place. Actually Turkey is blackmailing EU and EU acts like if it is Turkey's bitch which is a real shame.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 12, 2016, 01:59:33 pm
Europe, ridden with political correctness and guilt, lost the ability to protect itself against an inversion. This disease is now spreading to the US.

As for the UK, you built something good for yourself. Protect it as much as you can, just as you ancestors did.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 12, 2016, 02:02:13 pm
Quote
You see it everywhere now in Europe. There's no synagogue without some military with big guns to protect it.
It's a bloody shame.

So hundreds of years of "enlightenment" later, those "enlightened" Europeans are just as barbaric as they were?

Europe was fine, it's what Merkyl has chosen to import by the million that has created problems.

I see last night Obama has imported the same issue into Orlando. His naive mistake is going to generate headlines like that for decades to come.

All this was so avoidable, Spain has a teenage unemployment rate of 45%. They should have invited them all over to Germany, France, UK and Sweden, offered them free training and housing.
That would have been cheaper in the long run and have created zero cultural friction in all those host countries.


but lets help them closer to their home - We can build houses and villages for 10-20% of the cost in Turkey - and feed, educate and care for them for another 10-20% of what it costs to have them come to EU and house and feed them here.
This was what Cameron was doing, it was a great plan.
I reckon if Meryl hadn't gone insane then this Brexit thing would be a non issue, but people see what happened in Sweden and Germany and are scared, they want to get away from her and the destruction she has initiated for Europe.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 12, 2016, 02:28:58 pm
All this was so avoidable, Spain has a teenage unemployment rate of 45%. They should have invited them all over to Germany, France, UK and Sweden, offered them free training and housing.

"He's from Barcelona".

;-)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Tandy on June 12, 2016, 02:36:43 pm

"He's from Barcelona".

;-)

"Keh?"
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 12, 2016, 02:37:33 pm
"He's from Barcelona".
;-)

Sorry, nope,
but for me I'm just pointing out the bleeding obvious.

UK and Germany have an ageing population and we need a few million teenagers to come and live here, Spain has a few million teenagers twiddling their thumbs, and we already like the Spanish.
There is an obvious synergy here right?

But noooooooooooooooooo, insane Merkel would rather import a million followers of the world's pariah religion, shortly after we've bombed all their cities to dust.



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 12, 2016, 02:38:28 pm
I think our economic problems are our own making and very little do do with EU membership. In or out you still have to address the issues of long term planning and a decline in manufacturing.
At least Thatcher (finally) got rid of a lot of labour intensive subsidized industries in the 80's and getting the tax system back on the rails. I still recall the massive riots on the news. The decline of UK manufacturing also has a lot to do with lack of quality. UK built cars are infamous for that and a prime example of how easy it is to sink an entire industry due to people not being motivated to do a good job.

And a lack of investment.
And shitty management /leaders in both the companies and unions.
Lets also remember that the Unions in Germany were much bigger and stronger than in the UK.
Germany had a fraction of the problems the UK had with their industry.
Oh and I seem to recall that the most subsidised industry in europe at the moment is the finacial sector.  :D

Did I mention that the Nissan car plant in the UK is one of the best they have in the world.

3DB  :D
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 12, 2016, 02:54:47 pm
Quote
To live in a ME oil country ...

Seems to be a really good policy, and they execute it to the letter of the law, unlike many western countries.

Quote
But now - all the ME refugees talk about - is how lovely it is to live in the EU where you don't have to work for a living and everything is given to you. Workshops are held in "local EU countries laws" - so upon arrival they know what to say - and what to ask for. (or demand)

thanks to politicians the voters helped elect.

Quote
But EU representatives does simply not get it at all.

Because those guys don't bear the costs of their generosity - you do. If it is their wives' throats that got slit, their kids that got raped, their bank accounts that got drained, their neighborhood that got burned, ..., I'm pretty sure they would have reacted quite differently.

They are basically inviting complete strangers to a party at your house.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 12, 2016, 03:02:36 pm
Did I mention that the Nissan car plant in the UK is one of the best they have in the world.
^ This shows that

Quote
And shitty management /leaders in both the companies and unions.
^ This is one of the more significant causes of the decline in the UK motor industry.

I'm not quite sure why we were (are?) so shit at management - possibly there was a class thing going on but we were.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Tandy on June 12, 2016, 03:18:23 pm
Personally I think the reason the car industry died in the UK was meddling by government. Companies that succeed are not run by bureaucrats or members of the old boys network, sooner or later that kind of company is left in the dust by proper business people.

I live in Oxford that once had a major motor industry with Morris motors, this then became Austin Rover and later BMC. While the state run BMC failed miserably jobs in the BMW mini plant are now sought after. Bureaucrats have this innate desire to regulate things and micromanage creating an environment that discourages innovation.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 12, 2016, 03:45:50 pm
I think the BMC Mini could be described as an innovative vehicle.

 ;D



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: poorchava on June 12, 2016, 04:16:44 pm
(http://x3.cdn03.imgwykop.pl/c3201142/comment_SoinTfsGllC4GKoHw4QcfHqqYBSf3ZlF.jpg)
Somebody got the order of colors on the polish flag wrong lol. That's the flag of Monaco ???? And why are Czechs portrayed as not liking muslims? I actually find it that Czech people are one of the most friendly nations ever, and to anyone. Bad satire I must say
????

Sent from my HTC One M8s using Tapatalk.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Tandy on June 12, 2016, 04:22:14 pm
I think the BMC Mini could be described as an innovative vehicle.

 ;D
Selling it for less than it cost to make was the biggest innovation they came up with.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 12, 2016, 04:31:10 pm
I think the BMC Mini could be described as an innovative vehicle.

 ;D

Some of the top small wheel and folding bikes inventors are British, including Alex Moulton (Moulton), Mark Sanders (Strida), and Andrew Ritchie (Brompton).  IIRC, Alex Moulton also designed the suspension of the original Mini (which is a small wheel car).

My wife and I are big fans of small wheel folding bikes and we always have two in the trunk of the family car. We do have a Moulton and a Brompton but not a Strida which is less suitable for long distance rides.

How It's Made had an episode on the Brompton which is IIRC still manufactured in the UK. The rider at the beginning of the video is the inventor, Ritchie. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtR56OdIVCk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtR56OdIVCk)

With all those UK great bike designs, the market leader are still from the far east (e.g. Dahon china).

Edit: a top of the line Moulton bike costs £15,500.  This is not the model we have ;-)

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 12, 2016, 04:43:54 pm
And why are Czechs portrayed as not liking muslims? I actually find it that Czech people are one of the most friendly nations ever, and to anyone. Bad satire I must say
????

Because there are no Muslims in Czechoslovakia, maybe 20K or so, they know absolutely nothing about the issues.

Luckily their president is the only leader in Europe with a clue: "The experience of Western European countries which have ghettos and excluded localities shows that the integration of the Muslim community is practically impossible. Let them have their culture in their countries and not take it to Europe, otherwise it will end up like Cologne"

As the Arabs in Olomouc recently pointed out by screaming at the locals, “In 15 years you will be our slaves”

Do you really want that inside your country?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: daqq on June 12, 2016, 04:55:48 pm
Quote
Because there are no Muslims in Czechoslovakia, maybe 20K or so, they know absolutely nothing about the issues.
A bit of a correction: Czechoslovakia has been gone for 23 years ( see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_Czechoslovakia ), being split into the Czech republic and Slovakia (my country, the one being portrayed by the ball with the axe and the eye patch for some reason), two completely separate political entities. You are referring to the Czech president in this. Our one is quite as clueless as most.

As to not knowing absolutely nothing about the issue, I would disagree, we have lots of experience with a group of people of whom too many cannot be assimilated (not for lack of trying on our part) and what joys having such a community brings. Though ours are not doped up on religion on top of everything.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 12, 2016, 04:58:53 pm
Because there are no Muslims in Czechoslovakia, maybe 20K or so, they know absolutely nothing about the issues.

Luckily their president is the only leader in Europe with a clue: "The experience of Western European countries which have ghettos and excluded localities shows that the integration of the Muslim community is practically impossible. Let them have their culture in their countries and not take it to Europe, otherwise it will end up like Cologne"
It is interesting to see how you undermine your point this bad!  :palm: First saying someone knows nothing and then quoting such a person to make a point.

For a country it is very important to make sure everybody has a fair chance to get a good education,a job and keep taps on what is going on within certain groups. In the NL we have far less problems with minorities due to various programs aimed at getting everyone to be(come) a functional member of society and continuously improving these programs. Oh, and don't pull any sh*t in the NL because you'll be used for target practise as some Moluccan train hijackers found out in 1977:
(http://www.inenomassen.nl/pics/kaping_depunt/trein_kogels.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 12, 2016, 05:02:45 pm
A bit of a correction: Czechoslovakia has been gone for 23 years
Ah, my bad, thank you for the correction, I was unaware :)

It is interesting to see how you undermine your point this bad!  :palm: First saying someone knows nothing and then quoting such a person to make a point.
No, I was suggesting that a population that hadn't been exposed to the joys of enforced multiculturalism with islam may be unaware of what that means for their communities. I would expect a president to be more aware.

Look at Sweden, it was possibly once the nicest country in Europe with a fascinating culture that everyone in the UK has admired for decades. Now it's the poster child for cultural genocide.
Why? Insane leaders who conceal the truth and a media that does the same.

The UK has a zillion cultures, everyone gets along - this culture is different and nobody has been allowed to say this - until the issue boils over and suddenly we are faced with leaving Europe. Nobody truly wants this, we just want to stop being ignored.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 12, 2016, 05:21:15 pm
Quote
As the Arabs in Olomouc recently pointed out by screaming at the locals, “In 15 years you will be our slaves”

very soon, europeans will be minorities in their own countries and they will find out for themselves what multiculturalism really means.

The fear in the UK and the US and across some parts of Europe is real.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 12, 2016, 06:22:10 pm
For north-european and center-european the muslim theme is very recent, but at my region has been discussed since 2008.

So much that created a politic party (PxC)at a Barcelona village(Vic) with the goal to terminate with the  muslims benefits (burka,hijab and social bonus) .

When the PxC achieved the second place for mayoralty from Vic with the promise to ban  the Burka at public place .
 
Automatlly all the  major cities that controlled by the PSC party began to legislate versus the hijab and burka at public place.

Electoral spot  of 2011 of PLATAFORMA PER CATALUNYA(PxC) - Josep Anglada
https://youtu.be/BKr9yxDDqr0 (https://youtu.be/BKr9yxDDqr0)

Anglada scream : "the vast majority of immigrants on our home  are rabble,rabble ,rabble"

https://youtu.be/Llu6ntrOF0s?t=1m18s (https://youtu.be/Llu6ntrOF0s?t=1m18s)

Anglada vs Mohammed -Catalunya Opina

https://youtu.be/a6k8bdZp6nI
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Karel on June 12, 2016, 06:31:01 pm
In the NL we have far less problems with minorities ...

There are lots of problems in The Netherlands with minorities, specially with moroccans.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 12, 2016, 06:41:50 pm
For north-european and center-european the muslim theme is very recent, but at my region has been discussed since 2008.

So much that created a politic party (PxC)at a Barcelona village(Vic) with the goal to terminate with the  muslims benefits (burka,hijab and social bonus) .

I am sure it was discussed much earlier at your region.  ;-)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umayyad_Caliphate


(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5b/Umayyad750ADloc.png/1024px-Umayyad750ADloc.png)

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 12, 2016, 06:47:19 pm
Quote
There are lots of problems in The Netherlands with minorities

How many minorities  have you the Nerthelands?

Because we have problems with the arabs(moroccans,algerians) ,with africans(Nigerans,Camerun and Senegalese), with south-american(Colombian , Dominican and equatorians), with european(romain ,gipsies romain ,albano-kosovar,georgians)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 12, 2016, 07:20:44 pm
Quote
I am sure it was discussed much earlier at your region.

Quote
Pero el nuevo gobernador musulmán, Al-Hurr ibn Abd ar-Rahman al-Thaqafi, reforzado con las medidas antes citadas, realizó sucesivas campañas, desde el otoño de 716 y en los dos años siguientes, contra este reducto visigodo. Desde Zaragoza atacó y sometió las ciudades de Huesca, Barbastro, Lérida, Tarragona, Barcelona y, finalmente, Gerona. La resistencia de Tarragona debió ser tenaz pues, tras su conquista, los musulmanes dieron muerte a toda la población que había sobrevivido al asedio, y destruyeron la ciudad, incluidas sus iglesias y numerosos monumentos.

But the new Muslim governor, Al-Hurr ibn Abd al-Rahman al-Thaqafi, reinforced with the measures before quoted , he carried out successive campaigns, from the autumn of 716 and in the next two years, against this Visigoth stronghold. From Zaragoza he attacked and subdued the cities of Huesca, Barbastro, Lleida, Tarragona, Barcelona and finally Gerona.
 Tarragona (significant capital during Empire Rome)resistance had to be tough because, after its conquest, the Muslims killed the entire population that had survived the siege, and destroyed the city, including its numerous churches and monuments.

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquista_musulmana_de_la_pen%C3%ADnsula_ib%C3%A9rica (https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquista_musulmana_de_la_pen%C3%ADnsula_ib%C3%A9rica)

Furthermore Tarragona remained depopulated and no-man's land for 4 centuries until the  year 1116 when the Condes de Barcelona reconquered the city, and they declared the  city as "destroyed and  abandoned  , without cultives neither habitant  (https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principado_de_Tarragona (https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principado_de_Tarragona)).
 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 12, 2016, 07:44:51 pm
Please can we get this thread back to BrExit? 

The issue isn't any particular race/culture, those are big issues but not primarily a BrExit concern, the issue is UNCONTROLLED freedom of movement regardless of race/religion.
Unemployment in Greece, Spain, low living standards in newly joined countries, .... lots of pressure on migration.

David Cameron is now resorting to scaring grannies into thinking their pensions are at risk, as a one time Conservative voter I now regard him as a lying scum bag, I hope my fellow citizens rid us of him ASAP.

To remain is insane.


(https://grrrgraphics.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/brexit_ben_garrison.jpg?w=640&h=458)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 12, 2016, 08:02:36 pm
... the issue is UNCONTROLLED freedom of movement regardless of race/religion.

Care to explain?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: fubar.gr on June 12, 2016, 08:37:13 pm
As to not knowing absolutely nothing about the issue, I would disagree, we have lots of experience with a group of people of whom too many cannot be assimilated (not for lack of trying on our part) and what joys having such a community brings. Though ours are not doped up on religion on top of everything.

Gypsies?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 12, 2016, 08:37:52 pm
the issue is UNCONTROLLED freedom of movement regardless of race/religion.

Personally I'm OK with the uncontrolled immigration of Jewish Scientists and Polish carpenters.
Goats herders with AK47's from Allahbangistan, no, they can all naff off.
If you can't build a stable country entirely because of your chosen religion, then what the hell use are you to a European country?

Accept people who are probably OK, reject people who have a 1,500 year history of being violent supremacists. It's no more insightful than a Trump policy, but if it had been applied to America in time then 50 LGBT people would still be around today.

The only thing more dangerous are Progressive Liberals who look the other way.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 12, 2016, 08:39:45 pm
Quote
For north-european and center-european the muslim theme is very recent, but at my region has been discussed since 2008.

Going back more into the history, you will find more experience with muslim.

Quote
When the PxC achieved the second place for mayoralty from Vic with the promise to ban  the Burka at public place .

it is wrong to ban expression, verbal or via fashion choices. people should have the right to say what they believe, no matter how offensive it may be. The same bur burka.

as long as they don't violate the law and respect others' rights. Otherwise, the full force of the law should apply.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 12, 2016, 08:40:32 pm
Not much will change. It will be economic suicide to immediately start taxing all exports.

It is, indeed, quite possible that this would be true.

Given that the UK is only barely "in" anyway, a rapid negotiation of a Norwegian style agreement to access the single market would, arguably, not be a big change.

The problem I have here is that we loose participation influence in Europe without any of the gains that are claimed for leaving - why, exactly, would we want to do that?

If you actually want to block free movement of people, make up our own rules on trade, stop contributing to European finances etc then we have to distance ourselves much further from Europe - that approach also has its problems. For one thing it may well destabilise an increasingly fragile Union. With all of the problems that face the world at present the last thing we want is an unstable Europe on our doorstep.

The Brexit campaign seems to miss the fact that we live in a closed system so it is rather hard not to be caught out by inintended repercussions from your actions.

The Middle East is a mess but it is something of a separate issue - except for the stress it puts on the union.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: R_Gtx on June 12, 2016, 08:45:37 pm
To my mind, Brexit can be likened to divorce from a bullying, lying, spendthrift, moreover a partner who steadfastly refuses to mend their ways. Like all breakups, there will initially be some acrimony and pecuniary penalties, but they will soon be overcome, and in time forgotten as Britain forges her way into the future, footloose and fancy free. Maybe the EU will see the error of its ways, I sincerely hope it does for the sake of those remaining countries, who do not follow suit with their own exit.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 12, 2016, 09:01:10 pm
it is wrong to ban expression, verbal or via fashion choices. people should have the right to say what they believe, no matter how offensive it may be. The same bur burka.

Would you allow the KKK to run around with their white pointy robes on, or would you accept that black people are going to find that a bit unsettling?

Clothing can also be a symbol of cultural pressure, and if your community sees women not wearing a burka as slutty, then you don't have a lot of choice.
Avoiding unwanted cultural pressure over dress is partly why we retain school uniforms, so poor people are not left out.

I am not OK with people choosing to talk to me through a letterbox, it is offensive (to my cultural background)

(edit:)
-

Democracy seems to fail when the only choices presented are just different versions of the same disaster.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 12, 2016, 09:15:40 pm
As to not knowing absolutely nothing about the issue, I would disagree, we have lots of experience with a group of people of whom too many cannot be assimilated (not for lack of trying on our part) and what joys having such a community brings. Though ours are not doped up on religion on top of everything.

Gypsies?

Australians.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 12, 2016, 09:31:12 pm
... the issue is UNCONTROLLED freedom of movement regardless of race/religion.
Care to explain?
Simple, too many people.  No school places, no doctors appointments, no hospital places, too few houses, too many applicants chasing jobs.  The truth is that the public sector is drowning in debt so they can't expand (even if there was sufficient green-belt to decimate), so increasing numbers of people just leads to contention for services.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 12, 2016, 09:38:23 pm
Quote
Would you allow the KKK to run around with their white pointy robes on,

Absolutely, as we do today, in some 'un-enlightened' countries outside of the 'enlightened' europe, :)

Quote
or would you accept that black people are going to find that a bit unsettling?

Sure. But that's the price to pay for freedom.

Quote
Avoiding unwanted cultural pressure over dress is partly why we retain school uniforms, so poor people are not left out.

I don't know if that's the reason for school uniforms but if it is, it is the wrong reason.


Quote
I am not OK with people choosing to talk to me through a letterbox, it is offensive.

What if others outlaw your ability to think the way you do because somehow it is offensive for them that you think that way?

In a free country, you will have that freedom to think for yourself. I will defend your freedom to express anything, even if it is offensive to me.

A good example of JK Rowling's recent comments about Trump having the right to express his views no matter how offensive such views are to her.

If some members of a society has the ability to shut down speeches they consider "offensive", that's no longer a free society.

"free" really means free.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 12, 2016, 09:40:05 pm
Our biggest worry at the moment is that you don't vote for exit.
Or that you do vote for exit and then don't go.
The BrEXIT may be a big thing in the UK. Outside islands, we're watching football.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 12, 2016, 10:12:46 pm
Sure. But that's the price to pay for freedom.
It's not really a freedom worth having when you are surrounded by people who get up your nose.

Quote
I don't know if that's the reason for school uniforms but if it is, it is the wrong reason.
It's not the reason, it is just a reason

Quote
What if others outlaw your ability to think the way you do because somehow it is offensive for them that you think that way?
That's essentially already happening, it's the Lefts way of censoring debate. Issues are not decided on cultural values, but on a "correct" way of thinking.

Quote
In a free country, you will have that freedom to think for yourself. I will defend your freedom to express anything, even if it is offensive to me.
I believe in achieving the most happiness, so if I think someone's cultural expression is better expressed in a country other than mine, then I'm going to suggest they go there or don't come here in the first place.
I don't plan on adapting my way of life to accommodate the feelings of a retarded culture's sky pixie.

Quote
If some members of a society has the ability to shut down speeches they consider "offensive", that's no longer a free society.
Didn't the USA recently ban the confederate flag from being displayed?

It's one of the few countries with a list of constitutional rights, yet these are continuously being questioned and apparently may be partly revoked at any time. It's a free society until someone says otherwise, a Damocles sword I could do without.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: R_Gtx on June 12, 2016, 10:28:52 pm
It's one of the few countries with a list of constitutional rights, yet these are continuously being questioned and apparently may be partly revoked at any time. It's a free society until someone says otherwise, a Damocles sword I could do without.

Perhaps, Frank Zappa foresaw all this. From the allegorical rock opera:

Quote from: Joe's Garage (1979)
Our studies have shown that this horrible force is so dangerous to society at large that laws are being drawn up at this very moment to stop it forever!
Cruel and inhuman punishments are being carefully described in tiny paragraphs so they won't conflict with the Constitution (which, itself, is being modified in order to accommodate THE FUTURE)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: RGB255_0_0 on June 12, 2016, 10:46:14 pm
So many people with Britain First views in here that I'm not sure I'm in a forum for intellectuals but rather retarded Neanderthals.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 12, 2016, 10:52:41 pm
Outside islands, we're watching football.
Uhhhh.. no...  :'(
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: SL4P on June 12, 2016, 10:56:28 pm
What if France pulls out as well?
That would have to end the EU completely, or simply make Germany the centre of the 'rest of Europe'...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 12, 2016, 11:22:32 pm
What if France pulls out as well?
You have to ask yourself why the UK is on the verge of exiting the EU: it is the result of populistic politicians and not for solid economic reasons. It is very easy to blame politics for your own misery while you sit on your arse and expect to get paid every month. Creating a common enemy is a very easy trick for politicians who have no real solutions for any issue they bring up.

Time for a history lesson: The EU was preceeded by the EEC which was created in 1957 in order to streamline trade between the West European countries and the UK entered in 1973. Now think about how wise it is to throw something out which has worked for over 40 years. Due to increasing globalism it really is (more than ever) necessary for smaller countries to stick together.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Community
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 12, 2016, 11:43:09 pm
So many people with

If you want to hide behind a patronising generalist statement then that's fine, but to then assume a moral high ground simply because you live in Shoreditch?
Well, no.

 :popcorn:

Creating a common enemy is a very easy trick for politicians who have no real solutions for any issue they bring up.

I'm pretty sure every UK politician has avoided doing that?

Which is part of the problem, globalisation suits capitalism - any dissenting opinion of the 99% is irrelevant.

How do you quantify a cultural loss to a community that has changed beyond recognition, when every politician immediately and cynically re-frames your concern into an issue of sustainable funding instead, and then points the finger at the other guy.
Nobody cares about Cameron's benefit changes, it's a trivial amount of money. Nobody cares if Miliband thinks the NHS issue can be fixed if more money is thrown at it. Applying band aids and handing out victim compensation is not a fix while someone is still stabbing you in the face.
They are busily answering questions that nobody wants answered, because the actual concerns of working class people are conveniently being left off the agenda.

Remember last General election where every single day we were being told that the NHS was at the top of everyone's concern. Really? For the most part the NHS has been running fine for years.
Now where was immigration in that list of public concerns? - ...it was never mentioned by any of them.

Funny that, for an issue that has been bouncing around on forums for a decade, for it not even to be worthy of a mention during a general election.
And when the smelly voting proletariat embarrassingly brought up the issue live on camera... well, they were shut down as a bunch of neo nazi racists. Even some old granny up North was crucified on the altar of progressive correct thinking.

I note Corbyn had grudgingly admitted that it is now OK to be concerned, but as always the solution is to throw money at the problem, which wouldn't have been a problem in the first place were it not for Blair's social engineering experiments.

Amazing that we are faced with exiting Europe, simply because a political elite couldn't stomach discussing the truth with its own electorate.


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 13, 2016, 12:18:11 am
Still protest voting isn't going to solve the problems at hand. Cicciolina isn't known for her political achievements.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 13, 2016, 05:48:56 am
What if France pulls out as well?
You have to ask yourself why the UK is on the verge of exiting the EU: it is the result of populistic politicians and not for solid economic reasons. It is very easy to blame politics for your own misery while you sit on your arse and expect to get paid every month. Creating a common enemy is a very easy trick for politicians who have no real solutions for any issue they bring up.

Time for a history lesson: The EU was preceeded by the EEC which was created in 1957 in order to streamline trade between the West European countries and the UK entered in 1973. Now think about how wise it is to throw something out which has worked for over 40 years. Due to increasing globalism it really is (more than ever) necessary for smaller countries to stick together.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Community

The EU's problem is that it was created without a democratically accountable legislature. That's not going to change. I want to live in a democracy, so I'm voting to leave.

If you think the EU is working then look at the state of the Euro economy and what it's done to the Southern nations.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 13, 2016, 06:09:33 am
Amazing : the   british anti-european says … “Brussels ens roba”! (Brussels rob us )

  :-DD The british are  pirating the creed of the National Socialism Catalonia

https://www.dolcacatalunya.com/2016/06/le-suena-algo-este-autobus/ (https://www.dolcacatalunya.com/2016/06/le-suena-algo-este-autobus/)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 06:59:17 am
If you think the EU is working then look at the state of the Euro economy and what it's done to the Southern nations.
The problem is that the Euro was conceived with no good plan for handling the fact that the different economies which make up its membership are not homogeneous. The plan seemed to merely be "the economies will be the same" but I don't think any nation which entered truly met the criteria.

Without capital flows to help the poorer and/or less productive areas which are stuck with, to them, an overvalued currency. Easy credit turned out not to be the same :(

Perhaps it was hoped that labour flows would do the job - all those Spanish and Greek teenagers going to Germany for work then, presumably, sending Euros back down south but this does not seem to have happened. Perhaps the teenagers wanted to stay at home, perhaps it was difficult for Germany to accept them given its history.

As a "stronger" economy the UK should be supporting others in Europe - it benefits us all in the long term. Remember our gross contribution to Europe is only about 1% of GDP so it is not costing us a lot in relative terms.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 13, 2016, 09:23:09 am
BUT if we want access to the common market we are likely to have to accept free movement of labour as well
That's a myth.

OK, so the "Swiss model". Which took at least 10 years to set up, covers far fewer trade sectors and agreements than we would need, required considerable concessions on the part of the Swiss and provides an ongoing legislative burden on the Swiss government. Oh, and I believe the EU has said it was so complex it would not entertain setting up anything like it again.

Or the Canadian model - which has taken ages to set up, is not complete, does not provide tariff free access to the market and does not cover services (which are essential ti the UK economy).
What makes you believe that if the UK left, the EU would suddenly start charging tariffs on UK goods? If they did that, then the UK would quite likely do the same to EU goods so it wouldn't achieve anything, especially given the EU sell more goods to the UK than they buy.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 09:38:46 am
What makes you believe that if the UK left, the EU would suddenly start charging tariffs on UK goods? If they did that, then the UK would quite likely do the same to EU goods so it wouldn't achieve anything, especially given the EU sell more goods to the UK than they buy.
Because the default position, unless an agreement has been reached is that tariffs will apply.

In practice I am sure we would try to reach an agreement but as I have said before, if we want tariff free access to the single market the cost is likely to be continued acceptance of the free movement of labour - we loose the ability to influence the EU but still get most of the baggage which is why I don't favour that type of deal.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 13, 2016, 09:53:11 am
Quote
I don't plan on adapting my way of life to accommodate the feelings of a retarded culture's sky pixie.

So if your expression is offensive to others, would you support suppression of your offensive expression?

Quote
Didn't the USA recently ban the confederate flag from being displayed?

first of all, you cannot compare Europe to the US. The US lacks hundreds of years of "enlightenment", and its people are barbaric. The europeans, on the other hand, have been thoroughly enlightened and should hold itself to a higher, preferably much higher, standard.

secondly, what you said is true if you believe in the media.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 13, 2016, 09:53:58 am
New poll today showing 55% in favor of exit (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html). 

If I were a Brit, I think I'd be voting to exit.

I think you've got a more local and bigger decision to make soon......  :scared:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 13, 2016, 09:54:37 am
Quote
The EU's problem is that it was created without a democratically accountable legislature.

What you have in Europe and most other western countries can be better described as tyranny: tyranny of the majority.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 10:00:44 am
Quote
The EU's problem is that it was created without a democratically accountable legislature.

What you have in Europe and most other western countries can be better described as tyranny: tyranny of the majority.
A they say - democracy is the worst possible option, except for all the others.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 13, 2016, 10:10:49 am
Quote
The EU's problem is that it was created without a democratically accountable legislature.

What you have in Europe and most other western countries can be better described as tyranny: tyranny of the majority.
A they say - democracy is the worst possible option, except for all the others.

It was Churchill:-

“Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: TheAmmoniacal on June 13, 2016, 10:14:06 am
The EU will make sure a brexit will turn out disastrous for Britain. The EU has to punish countries who leave, it's their only mechanism of survival.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 13, 2016, 10:22:36 am
So if your expression is offensive to others, would you support suppression of your offensive expression?
For a culture to be successful there must be some kind of common identity, where there is a reason to support other people. You can't have a multitude of alien cultures who don't care about each other.
So you end up with a position of cultural relativity, where dispirit cultures all aim to create a homogeneous society, and then the likelihood of anyone finding something offensive is lessoned.

The alternative is a room full of SJW's who all claim to be a victim and who all demand to be the most offended.
Quote
The US lacks hundreds of years of "enlightenment", and its people are barbaric. The europeans, on the other hand, have been thoroughly enlightened and should hold itself to a higher, preferably much higher, standard.

I wouldn't class them as barbaric, a bit childlike and superficial maybe which perhaps gains them the politicians they asked for. Uniting a huge country while retaining some quite different groups is an achievement.
Up until recently I would have said Sweden was the most enlightened country in Europe, but no, their politicians are just as capable of lying as ours are.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 13, 2016, 10:43:07 am
What makes you believe that if the UK left, the EU would suddenly start charging tariffs on UK goods? If they did that, then the UK would quite likely do the same to EU goods so it wouldn't achieve anything, especially given the EU sell more goods to the UK than they buy.
Because the default position, unless an agreement has been reached is that tariffs will apply.

In practice I am sure we would try to reach an agreement but as I have said before, if we want tariff free access to the single market the cost is likely to be continued acceptance of the free movement of labour - we loose the ability to influence the EU but still get most of the baggage which is why I don't favour that type of deal.
But it's not certain they will make free movement a condition of a trade agreement. If the UK left the EU and just said no to free movement, then the EU may refuse a deal or they may not, but don't make out that they definitely will. That would be a lie. You can't be certain about what will happen and even if the EU makes threats, it doesn't mean they'll carry them out.

Currently the UK is running a trade deficit with the EU and is exporting less. Imposing tariffs on one of your biggest customers will only cause more harm then good.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 13, 2016, 10:58:58 am
"For a culture to be successful t"

I don't think that's thee question here.

You support banning of offensive speeches. 

My question to you is simple: when someone considers your speech too be offensive, do you support banning of your own speech?

A very simple yes or no would do.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 11:00:32 am
What makes you believe that if the UK left, the EU would suddenly start charging tariffs on UK goods? If they did that, then the UK would quite likely do the same to EU goods so it wouldn't achieve anything, especially given the EU sell more goods to the UK than they buy.
Because the default position, unless an agreement has been reached is that tariffs will apply.

In practice I am sure we would try to reach an agreement but as I have said before, if we want tariff free access to the single market the cost is likely to be continued acceptance of the free movement of labour - we loose the ability to influence the EU but still get most of the baggage which is why I don't favour that type of deal.
But it's not certain they will make free movement a condition of a trade agreement. If the UK left the EU and just said no to free movement, then the EU may refuse a deal or they may not, but don't make out that they definitely will. That would be a lie. You can't be certain about what will happen and even if the EU makes threats, it doesn't mean they'll carry them out.
No I don't claim to know what will happen or what agreement will be reached - all anyone can do is guess. However we can look at the Swiss situation where the EU is making it clear they do not want to continue the current arrangements.

BUT, I can be certain that if a Norwegian style arrangement is reached in which the price of access is continued donation to the EU purse and acceptance of free movement of labour then we will have won nothing and lost participation and influence.

Even if we manage to negotiate access to the market we will still have to produce goods which adhere to the market regulations without the ability to influence those regulations.

Quote
Currently the UK is running a trade deficit with the EU and is exporting less. Imposing tariffs on one of your biggest customers will only cause more harm then good.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit)
All other things being equal you are probably right - but the EU is genuinely worried about the possibility of Brexit destabilising the Union and might well want it to go badly for us - I don't think a divorce will be as amicable as we would hope. Yes that is guessing again but very public figures have said that it will be difficult for us to access the market afterwards.

The bottom line is that I view a Norwegian style deal as too similar to what we have now but with the loss of any input to the process, I view a full pull out as potentially too destabilising and I view the possibility of the any future deals allowing us to pick and choose what we want as remote.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Tandy on June 13, 2016, 11:01:19 am
...we loose the ability to influence the EU

We have never had the ability to influence the EU and that is the crux of the problem for me, the EU is not a proper democracy. Britain is not the only country that has issues with the direction of the EU but there is nothing any of the countries that have these concerns can do to change the direction of the EU. Britain even less so as we have a reputation as not being committed to the EU project so anything we have to say is not really taken seriously.

You are correct that the default position would be for tariffs the be applied, however that also means that our tariffs will automatically be applied to imports from the EU. It would be in the interests of both to come to a sensible arrangement. If the EU acts like a spoilt child and tries to punish Britain by not agreeing trade terms then that would just further accelerate the collapse of the EU as countries who trade with us get upset at loosing business due to the EU's spitefulness.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: batteksystem on June 13, 2016, 11:07:56 am
The way this poll is designed means that every non-UK will vote on option 3 anyway.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 13, 2016, 11:13:38 am
...we loose the ability to influence the EU
We have never had the ability to influence the EU and that is the crux of the problem for me, the EU is not a proper democracy. Britain is not the only country that has issues with the direction of the EU but there is nothing any of the countries that have these concerns can do to change the direction of the EU. Britain even less so as we have a reputation as not being committed to the EU project so anything we have to say is not really taken seriously.
This is sounding rather bratty as if only the UK knows what is best for the EU! IMHO the UK should have adopted the euro as well. Currently the EU makes up for only a third of the UK's export even though the EU is next door and I think that has a lot to do with having to deal with exchange rate risks.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Tandy on June 13, 2016, 11:19:59 am
Currently the EU makes up for only a third of the UK's export even though the EU is next door and I think that has a lot to do with having to deal with exchange rate risks.
I think there is a lot more to it than that, for a start the EU does not have a single language, the primary language in the UK is English, also spoken by millions of Americans & Australians. It is therefore relatively easy to sell to those countries without having to create localised marketing, manuals, support services. There are 24 official and working languages for the EU and only 1 for the United States.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NANDBlog on June 13, 2016, 11:21:14 am
I suspect this is satire but there are people who actually think retardedly like this.
Hungary is going to vote whether we want to have immigrants forcefully moved to Hungary. Polls suggest that some 80% will be against it. Why? Because the country only exist now because it put up walls and kept those people on the other side. This was going on for centuries. Do I really have to explain what is going on?

The UK doesnt want to leave the EU. The UK wants to change all the stupidity which is going on. I dont blame them. EU is good.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 13, 2016, 11:26:39 am
What makes you believe that if the UK left, the EU would suddenly start charging tariffs on UK goods? If they did that, then the UK would quite likely do the same to EU goods so it wouldn't achieve anything, especially given the EU sell more goods to the UK than they buy.
Because the default position, unless an agreement has been reached is that tariffs will apply.

In practice I am sure we would try to reach an agreement but as I have said before, if we want tariff free access to the single market the cost is likely to be continued acceptance of the free movement of labour - we loose the ability to influence the EU but still get most of the baggage which is why I don't favour that type of deal.
But it's not certain they will make free movement a condition of a trade agreement. If the UK left the EU and just said no to free movement, then the EU may refuse a deal or they may not, but don't make out that they definitely will. That would be a lie. You can't be certain about what will happen and even if the EU makes threats, it doesn't mean they'll carry them out.
No I don't claim to know what will happen or what agreement will be reached - all anyone can do is guess. However we can look at the Swiss situation where the EU is making it clear they do not want to continue the current arrangements.

BUT, I can be certain that if a Norwegian style arrangement is reached in which the price of access is continued donation to the EU purse and acceptance of free movement of labour then we will have won nothing and lost participation and influence.

Even if we manage to negotiate access to the market we will still have to produce goods which adhere to the market regulations without the ability to influence those regulations.

Quote
Currently the UK is running a trade deficit with the EU and is exporting less. Imposing tariffs on one of your biggest customers will only cause more harm then good.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit)
All other things being equal you are probably right - but the EU is genuinely worried about the possibility of Brexit destabilising the Union and might well want it to go badly for us - I don't think a divorce will be as amicable as we would hope. Yes that is guessing again but very public figures have said that it will be difficult for us to access the market afterwards.

The bottom line is that I view a Norwegian style deal as too similar to what we have now but with the loss of any input to the process, I view a full pull out as potentially too destabilising and I view the possibility of the any future deals allowing us to pick and choose what we want as remote.
You keep referring to the Norwegians and Swiss but the UK is totally different to either of them. For example, we might decide to only allow free movement of people from the richest and most powerful EU countries and exclude the rest, which may help with establishing a trade deal. Then if we leave we have more freedom to negotiate trade deals with other countries, especially the commonwealth, which suffered when we joined.

The only thing you've said which is certain is if our products need to be exported to the EU, then they will have to comply with EU regulations but the same can be said for any other country.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 11:40:16 am
You keep referring to the Norwegians and Swiss but the UK is totally different to either of them. For example, we might decide to only allow free movement of people from the richest and most powerful EU countries and exclude the rest, which may help with establishing a trade deal. Then if we leave we have more freedom to negotiate trade deals with other countries, especially the commonwealth, which suffered when we joined.

The only thing you've said which is certain is if our products need to be exported to the EU, then they will have to comply with EU regulations but the same can be said for any other country.
Only because the agreements that those nations have with the EU are being used as the archetypes for discussion/illustration as to how any future agreement between the EU and the UK would look following our exit (if that is what happens). I completely agree that the UK situation is not closely mirrored by either nation.

The "Swiss model" is probably out because the EU don't even want the Swiss to continue with it.

If we want to get all the negotiations done is 2 years the best would be to pick an existing agreement and say "we'll have one like that", otherwise the divorce will take forever (it probably will anyway).

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 13, 2016, 11:52:49 am
I will certainly be voting to leave.

Whatever one's views and opinions are on democracy, sovereignty, migration control etc are (and everyone is entitled to their own, it is naturally subjective, and therefore impossible to say that a certain opinion is "wrong" and another is "right"), what is an objective fact is that the EU is a hopelessly inefficient, incredibly bloated, and extremely wasteful bureaucracy.

Hardly anyone who works there can properly explain just what the Council of Europe, The European Council, The European Parliament, etc etc actually do and how they do it.


For me, sovereignty is extremely important.  The highest parliament governing the UK should be in the UK.  The highest court ruling on UK cases should be in the UK.  Decisions on whom may live and work in the UK should be taken by the UK and the UK alone.   

Many people rightly complain about our unelected House of Lords, but the undemocraticness (is that a word?) of the EU system swamps that.


I am sure there will be a little wobble to our economy if we leave, but that will be a small price worth paying, as the EU economy is in a death spiral.


I sincerely hope that we vote to leave, and after a few years when the transition is over and the sky hasn't fallen, our brothers and sisters across the continent make the same move and leave the sinking ship.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: AndyC_772 on June 13, 2016, 12:02:26 pm
The only thing you've said which is certain is if our products need to be exported to the EU, then they will have to comply with EU regulations but the same can be said for any other country.

IMHO this is actually one of the few good things to come out of the requirement that all EU members have to adopt EU Directives into law.

If I design a product, I only have to get it tested to a single set of safety, EMC and other specifications, apply one approval mark, and I can sell it anywhere in Europe. No individual country can say "no, no, no, we're special, you have to test to our standards in our country and put our mark on your product before you can sell here".

That's a massive benefit. Anyone who ever designed telephone equipment, back in the day when everything had to be tested to each country's incumbent operator's specs, will understand.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 13, 2016, 12:08:46 pm
The only thing you've said which is certain is if our products need to be exported to the EU, then they will have to comply with EU regulations but the same can be said for any other country.

IMHO this is actually one of the few good things to come out of the requirement that all EU members have to adopt EU Directives into law.

If I design a product, I only have to get it tested to a single set of safety, EMC and other specifications, apply one approval mark, and I can sell it anywhere in Europe. No individual country can say "no, no, no, we're special, you have to test to our standards in our country and put our mark on your product before you can sell here".

That's a massive benefit. Anyone who ever designed telephone equipment, back in the day when everything had to be tested to each country's incumbent operator's specs, will understand.
I agree with you there.

What I disagree with is when the EU starts interfering with things which have nothing to do with trade, such as the colours of the wires used in fixed electrical installations.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 13, 2016, 12:14:50 pm
Might be worth to read about what options UK will have.
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf (https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 13, 2016, 12:21:36 pm
"For a culture to be successful t"
I don't think that's thee question here.
It's essentially how cultures function, so I think it is relevant.
Quote
You support banning of offensive speeches. 

No I don't.
I took issue with an expression of an alien culture that serve no common purpose in my country.

Quote
My question to you is simple: when someone considers your speech too be offensive, do you support banning of your own speech?

Which has changed from your original question which was : "What if others outlaw your ability to think the way you do because somehow it is offensive for them that you think that way?"

Free speech is fine, dressing up as scary black ninjas is not.
Coincidentally Turkey and Syria (and France) agree with me, most of Europe is still discussing the issue. The only country which chooses to stick its head in the sand is the UK.

Anyone who ever designed telephone equipment, back in the day when everything had to be tested to each country's incumbent operator's specs, will understand.

OMG I've been there, I swear they were all doing it deliberately just to be contrary.
"No no no, our ringtone must be 10ms longer than yours..."

 |O  |O  |O

French car wiring colours need to be changed, last I looked it was green and brown - Sheesh, at least try and pick something intuitive
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: VK3DRB on June 13, 2016, 12:50:10 pm
The poms need the EU, because for one reason their own justice system cannot be trusted.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FreddyVictor on June 13, 2016, 01:09:40 pm
The poms need the EU, because for one reason their own justice system cannot be trusted.

that could be said of alot of countries  :)

interesting article re: TTIP (https://medium.com/@WhiteWednesday/the-ttip-issue-just-went-red-in-the-eu-referendum-b7932593f0e8#.nmzg4mo8d) - looks like this will be forced onto all EU countries whether they like it or not
so much for EU democracy ...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 02:03:00 pm
Might be bortth to read abpout what options UK will have.
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf (https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf)
Not just options but impacts - a very good read.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 13, 2016, 02:27:24 pm
Might be bortth to read abpout what options UK will have.
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf (https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf)
Not just options but impacts - a very good read.
Propaganda https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Centre_for_European_Reform (https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Centre_for_European_Reform)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 13, 2016, 02:28:08 pm
The poms need the EU, because for one reason their own justice system cannot be trusted.

that could be said of alot of countries  :)

interesting article re: TTIP (https://medium.com/@WhiteWednesday/the-ttip-issue-just-went-red-in-the-eu-referendum-b7932593f0e8#.nmzg4mo8d) - looks like this will be forced onto all EU countries whether they like it or not
so much for EU democracy ...
I need to see TTIP going to happen first because there is so much opposition against it (which is good IMHO). But... do you really think the UK can hammer out a better deal with the US on their own? I think Cameron just gets Trump's or Hillary's fist up his * (where the sun doesn't shine).
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 02:38:21 pm
Might be bortth to read abpout what options UK will have.
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf (https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf)
Not just options but impacts - a very good read.
Propaganda https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Centre_for_European_Reform (https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Centre_for_European_Reform)
So? Is there any agent in this argument who does not have an agenda?

Whatever you think about the organisation it is, at least, a reasonable discussion on the main points and influencing factors.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 13, 2016, 02:51:11 pm
Might be bortth to read abpout what options UK will have.
https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf (https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/smc_final_report_june2014.pdf)
Not just options but impacts - a very good read.
Propaganda https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Centre_for_European_Reform (https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Centre_for_European_Reform)
That certainly is a very reliable and unbiased source of information. https://wikispooks.com/wiki/9-11/Israel_did_it (https://wikispooks.com/wiki/9-11/Israel_did_it)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 13, 2016, 03:58:12 pm
So? Is there any agent in this argument who does not have an agenda?

Whatever you think about the organisation it is, at least, a reasonable discussion on the main points and influencing factors.

I ctrl-F'd for refugee, asylum and Dublin ... nothing. All these studies on the impact of Eastern European migrants are nice and all, but not all that relevant to contemporary times.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 13, 2016, 04:18:40 pm
Thunderf00t has posted a video on the subject.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 13, 2016, 05:59:45 pm
As a "stronger" economy the UK should be supporting others in Europe - it benefits us all in the long term. Remember our gross contribution to Europe is only about 1% of GDP so it is not costing us a lot in relative terms.

I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?  Why take money from UK taxpayers and donate it to non-producers?

Why be forced to accept uncontrolled immigration?  Especially from groups who want to retain 7th century ideas and have no intention of assimilating?  France is swamped by this issue.

The voters of the UK are the people whose opinions count.  Do they think the UK gains more from membership than they lose?  The opinions of members of government are bought and paid for.  It's up to the voters to decide.

In a way, BREXIT is a disrupter in the same way Trump is a disrupter.  Things won't be the same if Trump gets elected and it will be up to history to decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing.  Same for BREXIT.  Taking the disrupter path guarantees a change!

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 13, 2016, 06:13:19 pm
I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?
And such thinking is the reason why US has completely screwed up healthcare. It's not about health but about money it can suck out of each individual.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: AndyC_772 on June 13, 2016, 06:25:26 pm
Dumb question alert...

In this day and age, where we have jet powered travel and real-time global communications, why is EU membership restricted to countries that are geographically located in the part of the Earth's surface we call "Europe"?

Why shouldn't other countries be able to join if they wish? Why should it have such a compelling draw for countries that happen to share physical borders with other members, but (apparently) no appeal otherwise?

Perhaps the EU would work better for all if it were to admit some other countries that could, in turn, also help open up trade links with places further away?

So, if you're, say, in America... how would you feel about your country joining the EU? Do you think you'd benefit? Would other members? Would you adopt the Euro?

What if you're in South Korea? Or New Zealand? Or India?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 13, 2016, 06:26:59 pm
I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?
And such thinking is the reason why US has completely screwed up healthcare. It's not about health but about money it can suck out of you.

I agree that healthcare in the US is an abomination but it isn't anywhere near as bad as NHS.  I can often get an appointment with my primary care provider in a matter of hours, not weeks.  If I am less concerned about seeing my individual PCP, I can get an appointment in less than an hour.  For urgent care I can go to any hospital.  Right now!  I have had non-governmental healthcare for nearly 50 years, most often as an employee benefit.  In other words, I worked for it!

I don't see the correlation between US healthcare and the UK subsidizing Europe.  Isn't there something better to do with 8bn pounds?  But it's up to the voters of the UK.  I'm just a bystander and waiting anxiously to see how it comes out!  Other than the US election, BREXIT is the best show in town.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 13, 2016, 06:33:54 pm
Dumb question alert...

In this day and age, where we have jet powered travel and real-time global communications, why is EU membership restricted to countries that are geographically located in the part of the Earth's surface we call "Europe"?

Why shouldn't other countries be able to join if they wish? Why should it have such a compelling draw for countries that happen to share physical borders with other members, but (apparently) no appeal otherwise?

Perhaps the EU would work better for all if it were to admit some other countries that could, in turn, also help open up trade links with places further away?

So, if you're, say, in America... how would you feel about your country joining the EU? Do you think you'd benefit? Would other members? Would you adopt the Euro?

What if you're in South Korea? Or New Zealand? Or India?

From the US, I want absolutely nothing to do with any form of global (read non-responsive) government.  I simply don't care what they think in Brussels.  We have enough problems with Hillary wanting to go along with UN mandates.  Trade is business, let's talk!  But how we do things is to be decided by us, not Europeans.

As to the EC admitting other countries, not a problem for me but...  Were I a member country, I would want to be certain that candidate countries have a net positive economy.  Nobody needs another country to subsidize.  So, for New Zealand and Australia, no problem.  Sudan would be an issue.

We just don't need a global welfare state.  We should encourage trade at every opportunity but global government is a truly bad idea.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 13, 2016, 06:48:57 pm
Nice cartoon at Zerohedge.  :)
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/06/13/20160613_brexit.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 06:50:15 pm
I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?  Why take money from UK taxpayers and donate it to non-producers?
Subsidize is possibly the wrong word - I did say support but the essential reason is that we exist in a closed system thus what goes around tends to come around. Keeping people economically active improves their standard of living and ultimately benefits us in return.

Quote
Why be forced to accept uncontrolled immigration?  Especially from groups who want to retain 7th century ideas and have no intention of assimilating?  France is swamped by this issue.
Broadly speaking immigration is good for an economy because it brings young, fit, frequently well qualified workers who actually want to work and improve their lot. Movement of people/labour has been historically important in Europe for the last 3000 years and, lets face it pretty much everyone living in the USA is an immigrant as Homo Sapiens is an "old world" species.

It does backfire, of course, but the evidence is that immigrants to the UK currently contribute to the economy more than they take back. Also I think IDS has been on about the forecast of 150-250, 000 net influx out to 2030 or so. That's perhaps about the same number of workers that we need to bring into the UK over the same time period so I'm not sure it's entirely a bad thing.

Yes, we need to build houses and schools but it is not the EU's fault that we have not been doing that fast enough but successive governments who have encouraged everyone to go to 5th rate educational institutions to earn a 7th rate piss pot degree rather than running decent training schemes to equip us with the workforce that we need.

Quote
The voters of the UK are the people whose opinions count.  Do they think the UK gains more from membership than they lose?  The opinions of members of government are bought and paid for.  It's up to the voters to decide.

It is, I just don't think that watching a bunch of self-serving politicians calling each other names is going to qualify them to make the decision.

Quote
In a way, BREXIT is a disrupter in the same way Trump is a disrupter.  Things won't be the same if Trump gets elected and it will be up to history to decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing.  Same for BREXIT.  Taking the disrupter path guarantees a change!

I can agree with that statement. It might even be if we manage it properly (see previous comments on British management) we will ultimately come out on top but the short term pain could well be intense and I am not sure I believe that things will be as rosy long term as the Leave campaign claim.

The UK is 4% of GDP, the EU closer to 40 - who do you think the US and China will want to negotiate favourable terms with?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 13, 2016, 06:50:54 pm
I agree that healthcare in the US is an abomination but it isn't anywhere near as bad as NHS.
It is truly astounding how many Americans parrot this nonsense as if it were an imperishable fact.

Quote

I can often get an appointment with my primary care provider in a matter of hours, not weeks.  If I am less concerned about seeing my individual PCP, I can get an appointment in less than an hour.  For urgent care I can go to any hospital.
And all of this is typically also the case in the UK. Where are you getting your information?

A recent study (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uks-healthcare-ranked-the-best-out-of-11-western-countries-with-us-coming-last-9542833.html) by a US-based organisation rated the healthcare provision of New Zealand, Australia, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Canada, Britain and the US.

The NHS was rated as the best, and the US came last.

All such ranking exercises have an element of subjectivity, and the NHS certainly has its flaws, but try asking British people how they feel about the NHS, rather than relying on the distortions peddled by the US media.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 13, 2016, 06:51:19 pm
Nice cartoon at Zerohedge.  :)
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/06/13/20160613_brexit.jpg)

 :)  :-+
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Wuerstchenhund on June 13, 2016, 07:06:23 pm
Quote
"If the qualified politicians, economists etc. elected to run the country full-time can't agree on what's best, then how am I supposed to decide objectively in my spare-time using soundbite propaganda uttered by both sides and delivered through biased media?

Doesn't sound you have a lot of confidence in  your own ability to decide for yourself.

To me it sounds like a proper reflection of his own limitations, which is actually commendable, but unfortunately very rare.

Quote
There are a lot of research to suggest that the "uneducated" mass is pretty good at finding a good outcome for themselves without the "elites".

Not really. In fact, there's quite a bit of research showing that masses tend to get more stupid than the average individuum in that crowd, and that in large groups humans pretty much behave like cattle:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/plus2sd/200809/the-stupidity-crowds (https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/plus2sd/200809/the-stupidity-crowds)

People vote against their interest all the time. Hitler was elected, Mussolini, too. For a more recent example, just look at the 2015 general elections in the UK, or the fellowship of Trump.

Considering how many Brits I meet every day that want "out" but know jack shit about the EU and how it works, I have complete confidence that the "great British public" will again vote against their best interest  :palm:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FrankD on June 13, 2016, 07:06:23 pm
Throw these brits out. They hardly have a relevant industry left. Have a leeching financial section that will sink after the brexit.
Somehow they are delusional in thinking that they are still an important world 'power'.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 13, 2016, 07:09:56 pm
As a "stronger" economy the UK should be supporting others in Europe - it benefits us all in the long term. Remember our gross contribution to Europe is only about 1% of GDP so it is not costing us a lot in relative terms.

I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?  Why take money from UK taxpayers and donate it to non-producers?

Why be forced to accept uncontrolled immigration?  Especially from groups who want to retain 7th century ideas and have no intention of assimilating?  France is swamped by this issue.


There is a lot of confusion (some deliberate) about this.  The EU agreement says we have to accept citizens of other EU countries coming  here, under some circumstances, mainly if they work or support themselves.  Very few of these are Muslims or recent immigrants, because the latter aren't EU citizens until they've been there years.   The EU is *not* making us take refugees (although other EU countries with land borders may be sharing each other's refugee burden), and very few indeed of our Muslim immigrants, or indeed long standing Muslim population, are here from or because of the EU. 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 13, 2016, 07:24:49 pm
Quote
What I disagree with is when the EU starts interfering with things which have nothing to do with trade, such as the colours of the wires used in fixed electrical installations.

It happened for a good reason, years ago my dad had a work colleauge who had red/green colour blindness and couldn't wire a mains plug, it would have been 50/50 chance of getting it right.

Years later, myself and a fellow student got a six month industrial placement as part of a degree course, day one was paperwork and medical. They kicked him out there and then for being colour blind and he didn't even know he was colour blind. So, two examples of why they change the colour code.

From an EE point of view, don't forget how the EC have have harmonized standards, EMC, LVD, RTTE and RoHS, there's medical, chemical, mechanical, metrology and loads more that I'm not familiar with. Back in the day you would have had to have done EMC testing to several standards depending on the destination country and the standard in force. Fimko, Semko, Nemko, Demko, VDE,WTF.

From an EE point of view I would vote for staying.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 13, 2016, 07:29:14 pm
I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?
And such thinking is the reason why US has completely screwed up healthcare. It's not about health but about money it can suck out of you.

I agree that healthcare in the US is an abomination but it isn't anywhere near as bad as NHS.  I can often get an appointment with my primary care provider in a matter of hours, not weeks.  If I am less concerned about seeing my individual PCP, I can get an appointment in less than an hour.  For urgent care I can go to any hospital.  Right now!  I have had non-governmental healthcare for nearly 50 years, most often as an employee benefit.  In other words, I worked for it!
But if you are ill with something serious, you are screwed. Those healthcare plans also have so many exceptions that it is just ridiculous. With NHS it's otherwise, you won't get free simple treatment blazing fast, but if you have something serious, you will have a decent treatment. In US, you'll die if you are out of money.
Quote
I don't see the correlation between US healthcare and the UK subsidizing Europe.  Isn't there something better to do with 8bn pounds?  But it's up to the voters of the UK.  I'm just a bystander and waiting anxiously to see how it comes out!  Other than the US election, BREXIT is the best show in town.
Those 8 bn are a joke actually. By exiting EU, immediate losses will outweigh those savings 10s of years forward. UK net contribution to EU is 0.5% of GDP. Don't think about those 8 bn as if the are gone nowhere. They develop markets where UK goods will be sold afterwards. Actually a lot of that money returns as ability to sell goods while it would not be possible otherwise.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 13, 2016, 07:43:43 pm
It does backfire, of course, but the evidence is that immigrants to the UK currently contribute to the economy more than they take back.

Evidence based on massive Eastern European immigration, groups with often lower unemployment than the native population.

If all the immigrants had been gypsies it wouldn't have turned out the same. I suspect muslim refugees will have an economic contribution closer to that of gypsies than Poles ... although I'd still rather have gypsies than muslim refugees. Gadjos are to be taken advantage of, Kafirs are to be taken advantage of and eventually need to submit or be destroyed.

The EU is *not* making us take refugees (although other EU countries with land borders may be sharing each other's refugee burden)

Sharing, that's a nice euphemism for being forced to take refugees or be fined. How long will the UK be allowed not to share?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 13, 2016, 07:57:33 pm
Quote
"If the qualified politicians, economists etc. elected to run the country full-time can't agree on what's best, then how am I supposed to decide objectively in my spare-time using soundbite propaganda uttered by both sides and delivered through biased media?

Doesn't sound you have a lot of confidence in  your own ability to decide for yourself.

To me it sounds like a proper reflection of his own limitations, which is actually commendable, but unfortunately very rare.

Quote
There are a lot of research to suggest that the "uneducated" mass is pretty good at finding a good outcome for themselves without the "elites".

Not really. In fact, there's quite a bit of research showing that masses tend to get more stupid than the average individuum in that crowd, and that in large groups humans pretty much behave like cattle:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/plus2sd/200809/the-stupidity-crowds (https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/plus2sd/200809/the-stupidity-crowds)

People vote against their interest all the time. Hitler was elected, Mussolini, too. For a more recent example, just look at the 2015 general elections in the UK, or the fellowship of Trump.

Considering how many Brits I meet every day that want "out" but know jack shit about the EU and how it works, I have complete confidence that the "great British public" will again vote against their best interest  :palm:
Soviet study about how easy it is to impact individual if the majority have some general consensus, Even if it is completely ludicrous. They even managed to make adult man calling white being black just because majority said so. Also it shows some examples of how reliable human brain is at estimating things. Very good movie actually. Stuff about deliberately impacting opinion starts at 10th minute.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuIXiXqv978 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuIXiXqv978)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Wuerstchenhund on June 13, 2016, 08:05:46 pm
I agree that healthcare in the US is an abomination but it isn't anywhere near as bad as NHS.
It is truly astounding how many Americans parrot this nonsense as if it were an imperishable fact.

Well as non-American who has experience with both healthcare systems (plus the Canadian and German systems) I can assure you it's not nonsense. The NHS wins hands-down on costs, no questions, but not on availability and quality of care.

The biggest issue with the US system is access, i.e. you have to be able to afford treatment.

Quote
Quote

I can often get an appointment with my primary care provider in a matter of hours, not weeks.  If I am less concerned about seeing my individual PCP, I can get an appointment in less than an hour.  For urgent care I can go to any hospital.
And all of this is typically also the case in the UK. Where are you getting your information?


Here up north I can usually get an emergency appointment with my GP the next day or, if I'm very lucky, maybe even the same day, but normal appointments usually take one or two weeks, sometimes more. And apparently I should consider myself lucky, because of the huge shortage of doctors in the UK it's a lot worse in many other areas. Doctors btw which right now are for large part "pesky foreigners", i.e. the kind of people many Brits would like to get rid of rather sooner than later, which is one reason why we have this silly Brexit mess in the first place. The thing is, should the foreigners leave then the NHS would stop to function.

Oh, and A&E (the British equivalent to the ER) in many hospitals is totally overrun due to the GP shortage, often with waiting times exceeding 6 hours. And that's nothing new, this has been going on for years.

Dental care in the UK is probably the worst I've ever encountered in any first world country, a lot worse than in Germany and even more so than in the US. And not exactly cheap, either. You can get better treatment via private health insurance, but even there the standard is, in my experience, far below other countries including the US.

Quote
A recent study (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uks-healthcare-ranked-the-best-out-of-11-western-countries-with-us-coming-last-9542833.html) by a US-based organisation rated the healthcare provision of New Zealand, Australia, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Canada, Britain and the US.

The NHS was rated as the best, and the US came last.

Yes, based on costs. In terms of outcomes, the picture is less rosy, for example the UK is pretty far down when it comes to treating cancer and various other illnesses.

Quote
All such ranking exercises have an element of subjectivity, and the NHS certainly has its flaws, but try asking British people how they feel about the NHS, rather than relying on the distortions peddled by the US media.

The thing with asking a Brit about the NHS is that the answer quite often is tainted by an inappropriate amount of national pride, usually resulting in the "envy of the world" BS reply. Ask someone who actually has been treated under different healtcare systems, and you'll more likely get a more realistic assessment.

Worth a read:
http://www.sochealth.co.uk/2015/01/18/international-comparisons-say-nhs/ (http://www.sochealth.co.uk/2015/01/18/international-comparisons-say-nhs/)

"In summary, little evidence seems to exist to prove the belief that the NHS is the “envy of the world”, at least if we are talking about the developed world. The UK’s health service surely provides adequate and often excellent care, but many questions remain about whether that care is as good as the standards of our cultural and physical neighbors in Europe and the rest of the world. [...]"
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 13, 2016, 08:12:02 pm


Nice cartoon at Zerohedge.  :)
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/06/13/20160613_brexit.jpg)

A picture worth a thousand words.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 13, 2016, 08:12:49 pm
As a "stronger" economy the UK should be supporting others in Europe - it benefits us all in the long term. Remember our gross contribution to Europe is only about 1% of GDP so it is not costing us a lot in relative terms.
I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?  Why take money from UK taxpayers and donate it to non-producers?
Google 'Marshall plan'.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 13, 2016, 08:13:36 pm
But if you are ill with something serious, you are screwed. Those healthcare plans also have so many exceptions that it is just ridiculous. With NHS it's otherwise, you won't get free simple treatment blazing fast, but if you have something serious, you will have a decent treatment. In US, you'll die if you are out of money.

Well, I can't speak for Obamacare or VA benefits because I belong to an HMO.  I have had two episodes of having stents placed in arteries and both were handled immediately.  I have nothing but good things to say about my health plan.  If there's any doubt, they have the facilities to check things out.  Right now!  If there's a problem, they handle it.  Right now!

I do worry about the donut hole in Medicare prescription plans such as Senior Advantage but I doubt very much that I'll ever be using those benefits.

At the moment, I have no concerns about US healthcare but I am delighted that we don't have a one-size-fits-all government financed plan like NHS.  Unfortunately, I suspect we are headed in that direction.


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 13, 2016, 08:20:59 pm
Nice cartoon at Zerohedge.  :)
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/06/13/20160613_brexit.jpg)
If you look at the economic growth rates then the EU as a whole (including Greece) is doing better than the UK before and after the crisis:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-annual-growth-rate (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-annual-growth-rate)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth)

Even before the crisis the EU has outperformed the UK when it comes to economic growth.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 13, 2016, 08:22:51 pm
As a "stronger" economy the UK should be supporting others in Europe - it benefits us all in the long term. Remember our gross contribution to Europe is only about 1% of GDP so it is not costing us a lot in relative terms.
I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?  Why take money from UK taxpayers and donate it to non-producers?
Google 'Marshall plan'.

I read about it once.  It was a great help in stabilizing Europe after WW-II.  It didn't start until 3 years after the end of WW-II and lasted just 4 years.  It wasn't an unending flow of taxpayer cash.  It amounted to quite a bit of money but it was cheaper than WW-III, the likely alternative.  But we're not talking about countries ravaged by war, at least not the major players in the EU.  But we are talking about countries with rather liberal retirement plans and other motivations to reward non-performance.

Just last week I was reading about a country that wanted to provide every citizen with a stipend whether they worked or not.  A basic amount for living expenses.  Of course, if a person worked, the stipend was reduced.  Now that's a huge incentive to stay home and watch Oprah reruns.  Let's see, I get money for not going to work or less money if I do go to work.  Which to choose...  What a stupid idea!  Fortunately, it seems like the proposal crashed and burned.  They wanted to take more money from those who produce and give it to those who don't.  Terrific!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 13, 2016, 08:29:52 pm
I agree that healthcare in the US is an abomination but it isn't anywhere near as bad as NHS.
It is truly astounding how many Americans parrot this nonsense as if it were an imperishable fact.

Well as non-American who has experience with both healthcare systems plus the German one I can tell you it's not nonsense.
You can tell me anything you like; doesn't make it true.

My family also has experience of healthcare on both sides of the pond, (my aunt and uncle are US citizens) and their experiences in the USA healthcare system have frequently been appalling.

Yes, the NHS has many failings, as does the healthcare of any other country, but that doesn't make it incomparably worse than what rstofer acknowledges to be "an abomination".

Quote
Dental care in the UK is probably the worst I've ever encountered in any first world country, a lot worse than in Germany and even more so than in the US.
Really? So how does the UK manage to share the crown (https://top5ofanything.com/list/7f67f9bf/Countries-with-the-Healthiest-Teeth) for the healthiest teeth of any country in the world with Germany?

Quote
The thing with asking a Brit about the NHS is that the answer quite often is tainted by an inappropriate amount of national pride, usually resulting in the "envy of the world" BS reply. Ask someone who actually has been treated under different healtcare systems, and you'll more likely get a more realistic assessment.

Don't put words in my mouth. I never claimed the NHS was "the envy of the world" I just get upset when Americans assume it to be some kind of third-world hellhole.

And Brits are the only nation given to "inappropriate amounts of national pride", are they?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 13, 2016, 08:36:39 pm
For me, sovereignty is extremely important. 

How important is sovereignty when we can't defend ourselves - we already borrow ASW aircraft from Canada when there's a Russian sub near Faslane, and if the Argies invade the Falklands we will have to beg the French to lend us their aircraft carrier.

How important is sovereignty when the lights go out (and they will go out) in a few years because the Chinese won't lend us enough money to get the French to build Hinkley Point.

There are too many other similar examples :(
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 13, 2016, 08:46:03 pm
Aneurin Beven spearheaded the founding of the national health service and there is a statue of him at the end of Queen St in Cardiff. But they put his statue under a tree and he's always covered in bird shit. To me that is somewhat disrespectful. If he could see his statue he would probably say "Cardiff, pretty shitty city". cf Twin Town, "Swansea...pretty shitty city". No one seems to give a shit apart from the birds. It's perhaps an indicator of how much society really cares about their past or future. Rant over.

http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/1938771 (http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/1938771)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 13, 2016, 08:48:48 pm


... the lights go out (and they will go out) in a few years ...

Wow! 

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: continuo on June 13, 2016, 08:49:15 pm
Together we stand, divided we fall... It's never a good thing to lose influence... Not for the EU and not for you Brits.  :(

 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 13, 2016, 08:49:54 pm
For me, sovereignty is extremely important. 

How important is sovereignty when we can't defend ourselves - we already borrow ASW aircraft from Canada when there's a Russian sub near Faslane, and if the Argies invade the Falklands we will have to beg the French to lend us their aircraft carrier.
Likely the same which Sweden hunted 2 years ago. Last week Swedish minister of defense admitted it was BS. but it did the job, it helped to push through increase of military expenses.
http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=6451552 (http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=6451552)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 13, 2016, 09:02:32 pm


The EU is *not* making us take refugees (although other EU countries with land borders may be sharing each other's refugee burden)

Sharing, that's a nice euphemism for being forced to take refugees or be fined. How long will the UK be allowed not to share?

We were never in Schengen and there is no basis for forcing us to take refugees.   As a civilised country, we have chosen to accept a number of Syrian war refugees.  You may think that unwise, but it is nothing to do with the EU.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Koen on June 13, 2016, 09:03:50 pm
Multiple times in this thread : "I don't care what you think. Now, let me tell you what I think". Well done lads, great discussion.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 13, 2016, 09:05:16 pm


... the lights go out (and they will go out) in a few years ...

Wow!

Yes :(  Several "notices of insufficiency" have already been formally issued, but I believe not enacted. (An NoI is a warning to industrial customers that they may have their power cut)

We currently have about 3% excess generating capacity. All it takes is a couple of unscheduled outages.Many large nukes are reaching their end of life and/or having their peak capacity reduced for safety reasons. And we're closing the coal stations. And we are trying to get other countries to finance new gas generating plant.

But of course, the market wisdom is sufficient to solve all problems. Not.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 13, 2016, 09:10:49 pm

A recent study (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/uks-healthcare-ranked-the-best-out-of-11-western-countries-with-us-coming-last-9542833.html) by a US-based organisation rated the healthcare provision of New Zealand, Australia, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Canada, Britain and the US.

The NHS was rated as the best, and the US came last.

All such ranking exercises have an element of subjectivity, and the NHS certainly has its flaws, but try asking British people how they feel about the NHS, rather than relying on the distortions peddled by the US media.

Actually, BBC gets down on NHS from time to time.  It's the only UK site I visit...  I have read multiple articles of folks on NHS not being able to get an appointment for weeks for things like Flu.  Who knows if it is true?  Was it true to one person, once?  Well, that certainly doesn't make it 'generally' true but it isn't false either.  We have the same problem with our system.  I am blessed to not be involved with Obamacare because that system truly is a trainwreck.

Whenever I see a study, I want to know 2 things:  First, who did the study and, second, what point are they trying to make?  Every single research paper I have ever read ended with a plea for more research ($).  Once we realize that everything we read and half of what we see is the result of 'spin', the better off we'll be.

We have the hot-button issue of Social Security.  The young folks don't want to pay in because they figure the system will go bankrupt before they can collect (may or may not be true) and the benefits are about to start eating into the defense budget.  The old folks figure that they paid in for 40 years or more, now it's time to collect.  They may feel that a huge reduction in the defense budget is a good thing.  Maybe we'd have to pull back from some of our foreign adventures.  Not an altogether bad outcome.  It'll be fun to watch over the next several years.

And everybody wants to weigh in on our election.  Outsider opinions are irrelevant but what would have happened if Britain had banned the future President of the United States?  That might have been awkward!  He could get elected, you know...


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 13, 2016, 09:14:05 pm
The rats always are the first at abandoning the ship when it sinks  :-DD :-DD

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Here up north I can usually get an emergency appointment with my GP the next day or, if I'm very lucky, maybe even the same day, but normal appointments usually take one or two weeks,

As here,and  is the blame  the Brussels? So no . the blame is the president for naming to the President of the Private Clinics of Catalonia as Health Advisor.

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Oh, and A&E (the British equivalent to the ER) in many hospitals is totally overrun due to the GP shortage, often with waiting times exceeding 6 hours. And that's nothing new, this has been going on for years.

As here,and  is the blame  the Brussels or Madrid? So no . the blame is the president for holding elections every two years since 2010 and every time the  idiot president  losts votes.

The victimism speech i know very fine because we carry to mash "the proccess catalonia " for 6 years ,24 hour per day .

And the british anti-european are at the first stage :"Brussels rob us ", "The british paid more than we recieved"

The second stage: "They don't understand us ", "They don't want to listen", "They aren't democratics."

The third stage: "Our the british we are locomotive from europe", "They want to dominate us", "Europe hate us"

And the last stage i don't know but  we are living  now.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 13, 2016, 10:28:28 pm

"No I don't."

So do you allow KKK aand their highly offensive speeches and dress code? Do you allow burka? Do you allow advocating Sharia law? Do you allow speech's for skavery? Or any other topics you may think offensive?

"I took issue with an expression of an alien culture that serve no common purpose in my country"

So what? Many things we took for granted today were once alienn to us: science, anti slavery, same sex marriage,  equal rights for minorities, votig rights forr women, democracy, ......

If we didn't allow alien expressions, we would still be livining caves
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 13, 2016, 11:03:44 pm
I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?  Why take money from UK taxpayers and donate it to non-producers?
Subsidize is possibly the wrong word - I did say support but the essential reason is that we exist in a closed system thus what goes around tends to come around. Keeping people economically active improves their standard of living and ultimately benefits us in return.

Some folks subscribe to the 'invisible hand' theory and others a) don't know what it is or b) would rather ignore it.  On an international scale, I'm not sure what I think about it.  On a personal basis, yes, greed is good!

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Why be forced to accept uncontrolled immigration?  Especially from groups who want to retain 7th century ideas and have no intention of assimilating?  France is swamped by this issue.
Broadly speaking immigration is good for an economy because it brings young, fit, frequently well qualified workers who actually want to work and improve their lot. Movement of people/labour has been historically important in Europe for the last 3000 years and, lets face it pretty much everyone living in the USA is an immigrant as Homo Sapiens is an "old world" species.

It does backfire, of course, but the evidence is that immigrants to the UK currently contribute to the economy more than they take back. Also I think IDS has been on about the forecast of 150-250, 000 net influx out to 2030 or so. That's perhaps about the same number of workers that we need to bring into the UK over the same time period so I'm not sure it's entirely a bad thing.

Yes, we need to build houses and schools but it is not the EU's fault that we have not been doing that fast enough but successive governments who have encouraged everyone to go to 5th rate educational institutions to earn a 7th rate piss pot degree rather than running decent training schemes to equip us with the workforce that we need.


Yet here in the US, we are forced to accept uncontrolled immigration of people with little to no skills.  I am of the view that we should encourage immigration for anyone with a STEM degree.  Not so much for low skills...

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The voters of the UK are the people whose opinions count.  Do they think the UK gains more from membership than they lose?  The opinions of members of government are bought and paid for.  It's up to the voters to decide.

It is, I just don't think that watching a bunch of self-serving politicians calling each other names is going to qualify them to make the decision.

Yet for this election cycle, this is what inundates us here in the US.  I don't want either candidate to get elected.  One of them I want a little less than the other.  Either way, things don't look too good!

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In a way, BREXIT is a disrupter in the same way Trump is a disrupter.  Things won't be the same if Trump gets elected and it will be up to history to decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing.  Same for BREXIT.  Taking the disrupter path guarantees a change!

I can agree with that statement. It might even be if we manage it properly (see previous comments on British management) we will ultimately come out on top but the short term pain could well be intense and I am not sure I believe that things will be as rosy long term as the Leave campaign claim.

The UK is 4% of GDP, the EU closer to 40 - who do you think the US and China will want to negotiate favourable terms with?

I can't speak for China nor anyone else in the US but, personally, I tend to side with the UK.  Common language, mostly common ideology, long term relationship (overlooking the early years).  All in, I expect the US and UK to be able to work things out in pretty short order.

Nevertheless, we have two interesting spectacles this year.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 13, 2016, 11:09:08 pm
The UK is 4% of GDP, the EU closer to 40 - who do you think the US and China will want to negotiate favourable terms with?

The UK will have to agree to TTIP, and that wil be far far worse for me (and many others) personally that any amount of EU problems.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 13, 2016, 11:13:47 pm
The UK will have to agree to TTIP, and that wil be far far worse for me (and many others) personally that any amount of EU problems.
Indeed if the UK remains in the EU then we will get TTIP and in time the NHS will be opened up to US providers and who knows what happens next.
Outside the EU then TTIP looks less likely and certainly will be more open to scrutiny than the secret EU negotiations.
Insane to remain.  8)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 13, 2016, 11:25:10 pm
Throw these brits out.
:) With friends like these...

They hardly have a relevant industry left.
That's certainly not far off the mark but then again manufacturing is under great pressure from China and the increased level of automation.  It's going to be hard to be a large scale manufacturer in the future... just look at Steel... massive overcapacity in the EU.
One advantage that we do have is the English language and a pretty respectable education and research base, the digital industries seem to be doing pretty well.

Have a leeching financial section that will sink after the brexit.
Hm... I'm not going to defend financial services as a worthwhile human occupation but I will say that I would look elsewhere for the next big failures... Japan is in meltdown, no one wants their debt anymore, Greece only continues to pay any bills by being given more debt to pay back the same debtors, the Italian banks have been bust for ages and well... I wonder how Deutsche Banks balance sheet will hold up to some stress testing...  The European Central Bank is buying bond junk to prop up bond/equity prices... that won't end well.

Somehow they are delusional in thinking that they are still an important world 'power'.
Nope we gave up on any world domination ideas some time ago; it's self-preservation we are currently working on.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 13, 2016, 11:35:10 pm
Outside the EU then TTIP looks less likely and certainly will be more open to scrutiny than the secret EU negotiations.
:-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 13, 2016, 11:41:19 pm
The UK is 4% of GDP, the EU closer to 40 - who do you think the US and China will want to negotiate favourable terms with?

The UK will have to agree to TTIP, and that wil be far far worse for me (and many others) personally that any amount of EU problems.

Anything that has to be negotiated in secret can't be good.  For anybody...  Hopefully it crashes and burns.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 13, 2016, 11:49:54 pm
The UK is 4% of GDP, the EU closer to 40 - who do you think the US and China will want to negotiate favourable terms with?

The UK will have to agree to TTIP, and that wil be far far worse for me (and many others) personally that any amount of EU problems.

Anything that has to be negotiated in secret can't be good.  For anybody...  Hopefully it crashes and burns.

I agree TTIP is evil.   But it is worth noting that the UK government is one of its strongest proponents in the EU.  I think Brexit makes it more likely rather than less that we will sign it.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 14, 2016, 12:18:11 am


... the lights go out (and they will go out) in a few years ...

Wow!

Yes :(  Several "notices of insufficiency" have already been formally issued, but I believe not enacted. (An NoI is a warning to industrial customers that they may have their power cut)

We currently have about 3% excess generating capacity. All it takes is a couple of unscheduled outages.Many large nukes are reaching their end of life and/or having their peak capacity reduced for safety reasons. And we're closing the coal stations. And we are trying to get other countries to finance new gas generating plant.

But of course, the market wisdom is sufficient to solve all problems. Not.

That is true, but staying in the EU will keep the lights on... erm, how exactly?  The ECB can't print leccy!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 14, 2016, 12:38:40 am


... the lights go out (and they will go out) in a few years ...

Wow!

Yes :(  Several "notices of insufficiency" have already been formally issued, but I believe not enacted. (An NoI is a warning to industrial customers that they may have their power cut)

We currently have about 3% excess generating capacity. All it takes is a couple of unscheduled outages.Many large nukes are reaching their end of life and/or having their peak capacity reduced for safety reasons. And we're closing the coal stations. And we are trying to get other countries to finance new gas generating plant.
But of course, the market wisdom is sufficient to solve all problems. Not.
That is true, but staying in the EU will keep the lights on... erm, how exactly?  The ECB can't print leccy!
Simple: by mandating a minimum excess generating capacity! One of the things the EU does right is preventing governments from doing stupid things. As Wuerstchenhund wrote: nowadays people tend to vote against their own best interest and I think there is truth in that statement.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 14, 2016, 02:12:47 am


Simple: by mandating a minimum excess generating capacity! One of the things the EU does right is preventing governments from doing stupid things. As Wuerstchenhund wrote: nowadays people tend to vote against their own best interest and I think there is truth in that statement.

"We know better what's good for you", this time it's a multi level scheme. What's next, the UN knows better what's good for the EU?

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Wuerstchenhund on June 14, 2016, 05:45:25 am
Yes, the NHS has many failings, as does the healthcare of any other country, but that doesn't make it incomparably worse than what rstofer acknowledges to be "an abomination".

I wouldn't call it an abomination, sure, but it's pretty much a failing system which leaves patients worse off than most other western healthcare systems.

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Dental care in the UK is probably the worst I've ever encountered in any first world country, a lot worse than in Germany and even more so than in the US.
Really? So how does the UK manage to share the crown (https://top5ofanything.com/list/7f67f9bf/Countries-with-the-Healthiest-Teeth) for the healthiest teeth of any country in the world with Germany?

Aside from that the website "Top 5 of everything" isn't exactly renowned for being a credible source, had you actually read what it says you'd noticed that it talks about Dental Health of Children, and the study they cite looked at Children's teeth in 2006!  :palm:

And it seems that even for Children today's situation isn't as rosy:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/12077501/Letter-The-NHS-dental-health-system-is-unfit-for-purpose.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/12077501/Letter-The-NHS-dental-health-system-is-unfit-for-purpose.html)
(I know, it's the Torygraph, but that's just a reproduction of the original letter)

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Don't put words in my mouth. I never claimed the NHS was "the envy of the world" I just get upset when Americans assume it to be some kind of third-world hellhole.

It's no 3rd world hellhole, but it's a first world atrocity, mainly due to utter mismanagement and severe under-funding because the populace who claims to care so much about the NHS has been voting for toffs that want to replace the NHS with a US style privatized system.

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And Brits are the only nation given to "inappropriate amounts of national pride", are they?

Maybe not, but then I never heard a German claiming their system is the "envy of the world", and even for most Americans it's uncommon to think their system is superior (they just tend to believe their system is inevitable).
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 14, 2016, 07:17:09 am
NHS vs Middle East example...

My father-in-law had a brain hemorrhage in the UK. It paralyzed his face and impaired his speech. As ambulance wait time was 29 minutes (despite being in a rather large city) - my mother-in-law drove him to A&E/Hospital in 8 minutes. There there was no doctor  or nurse pre-exam before 6 hours in - and then another 2 hours wait for a full doctor examination.  And then another 2 hours for medication. So total time spent - 10 hours before treatment. It was a small hemorrhage - but that was not known at the time. But it is a well known fact that brain hemorrhage needs treatment within 3 hours to minimize aftereffects.

12 months later they visit us in Dubai to welcome our first born. At the night before departure back to the UK - my father-in-law has a major stroke. Ambulance called - arrives within 3 minutes! At arrival at the A&E part of the hospital - 3 doctors! stand ready - 1 general managing doctor - 1 stroke doctor and 1 brain hemorrhage doctor. He is rolled STRAIGHT into Scanner with all 3 doctors there - they pass judgement and he is "handed" to the brain hemorrhage specialist doctor. First treatment administrated within 1 hour and 20 minutes. Stroke severity from a scale of 0-20 where 20 is fatal - doctor says about 16. My father-in-law stays in hospital for 4 weeks - and before discharge an "impact" study is done again from scale 0-20. And due to fast reaction - impact scale is only a 3 of 20. Today his is active again - swims 2-3 times a week - paints the house and is not disabled in any way apart from normal aging slightly accelerated.

Total bill from UAE hospital - nothing for first 3 days as intensive care is free/paid by government for ALL. AED 14.000,- for the 4 weeks in hospital including all medications, scans and re-training/physio - AED14.000 is GBP 2700' ish and about $3800. And as he says - had it been on NHS he would have passed away. And the UAE hospital is actually profitable.

So that is why we pay extra for private medical care even in the UK. Minor issues we take to NHS - but major stuff - never ever - straight to the private hospital.

 NHS is caught up in the usual Union battles where a nurse can't change a light-bulb without reprisal from the caretakers union (or what ever "union" they "stole" the work from) - the same thing that killed the Danish medical care system. As system that does not allow or inspire individual decision making or action taking - and fosters a bureaucracy huge and heavy.

But that is not EU's fault (mostly) :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 14, 2016, 07:19:58 am
The UK will have to agree to TTIP, and that wil be far far worse for me (and many others) personally that any amount of EU problems.
Indeed if the UK remains in the EU then we will get TTIP and in time the NHS will be opened up to US providers and who knows what happens next.
Outside the EU then TTIP looks less likely and certainly will be more open to scrutiny than the secret EU negotiations.

I suggest you go back and look at the news reports over the past couple of years (i.e. before the referendum nonsense startedd)

You will find that (1) the UK government is far more pro-TTIP than the EU and (2) only the EU is fighting back against it. (And is large enough to offer resistance)

Conclusion: TTIP's effects will be worse if we leave.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 14, 2016, 07:27:39 am
NHS vs Middle East example...
... which completely ignores the very basic distinction that the UAE has a far higher per-capita income than the UK, and so can afford it.

OTOH, in the UK surgeons that could personally financially benefit from operating privately choose to advise their patients to have the op done in an NHS hospital. Why? Because if there's a problem at private hospital, they call an ambulance and transfer you to the NHS hospital!

Such selfless advice has been given 100% of the time to my family, in different hospitals, for different operations - it is not a one-off exception.

Having tried both NHS and private options personally, the only advantages of private operations are a better paint colour scheme and more obsequious nursing staff.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Jeroen3 on June 14, 2016, 07:34:56 am
People vote against their interest all the time. Hitler was elected, Mussolini, too. For a more recent example, just look at the 2015 general elections in the UK, or the fellowship of Trump.
We've got one! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 14, 2016, 07:36:18 am
I wonder what happens to the credit rating of UK after a Brexit, from AAA to  :-//
If it tumbles so will the interest rise on their debt and ouch second largest external debt in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt)
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/25/brexit-vote-would-affect-uks-top-credit-score-says-standard-and-poor (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/25/brexit-vote-would-affect-uks-top-credit-score-says-standard-and-poor)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 14, 2016, 07:37:44 am
People vote against their interest all the time. Hitler was elected, Mussolini, too. For a more recent example, just look at the 2015 general elections in the UK, or the fellowship of Trump.
We've got one! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law)

Chuckle, never fails....
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 14, 2016, 07:51:45 am
Throw these brits out. They hardly have a relevant industry left. Have a leeching financial section that will sink after the brexit.
Somehow they are delusional in thinking that they are still an important world 'power'.

But our GDP is at least 3 times that of NL and I'd be surprised if we don't contribute more to the EU than NL.

3DB      :rant:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: onesixright on June 14, 2016, 07:54:14 am
United we stand, divided we fall.

I don't think you solve problems by leaving. You solve it by talking. Giving up your seat on the table, makes it only harder.

EU should top its endless drift for expansion, and put things in order within the EU.

If you can't stop drugs, people trafficking, etc. Why would you think you can close the borders for terrorists? Its a ludicrous idea, that you can close the border air-tight, even when living on a island. A terrorists is -in a sense- in each and everyone of us, poke them long enough and it will cause (tragic) problems.

When it comes to refugees, I think, each EU country should accept a (equal) % of their own population. They should be spread via a lottery system. If you are running for terror, bullets flying over your head, etc. we should help them. However, I don't think they can pick and choose (ala cart) where they can go. Even better, need to stop people want to flee in the first place. The war in the middle east could be solved long ago, we are just not (truly) committed to end it.

And for Putin. Why the hell they didn't add Russia to the NATO after the wall came down? Problem solved? Of course not, they need a enemy (for both sides). The public opinion is very easily manipulated. Maybe people should have a license to vote (and while we are going, a license to raise children ... )?

We need to realise that everyday we are f*cked over by the politicians that we elect. They only take care of themselves. So how do we make sure they do what we (the people want)?

Time for Democracy 2.0?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 14, 2016, 07:54:33 am
NHS vs Middle East example...
... which completely ignores the very basic distinction that the UAE has a far higher per-capita income than the UK, and so can afford it.


I think you ignored me writing the hospital is PROFITABLE. Only the first 3 days of intensive care is subsidized/paid by the Government. All other hospital income is paid for by the users. So it has nothing to do with per capita income.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 14, 2016, 08:01:01 am
I'm from out of town and my opinion is irrelevant but why should the UK subsidize other countries?  Why take money from UK taxpayers and donate it to non-producers?
Subsidize is possibly the wrong word - I did say support but the essential reason is that we exist in a closed system thus what goes around tends to come around. Keeping people economically active improves their standard of living and ultimately benefits us in return.
The UK is one of the most generous countries there is, with regards to foreign aid. Why do we need the EU telling us who to donate our money to? What if we decided to stop donating to the Europe and put our money into poorer parts of the world, where it's needed more?


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Yes, we need to build houses and schools but it is not the EU's fault that we have not been doing that fast enough but successive governments who have encouraged everyone to go to 5th rate educational institutions to earn a 7th rate piss pot degree rather than running decent training schemes to equip us with the workforce that we need.
Yes it is the EU's fault we've not being building schools and houses fast enough to keep up.

When immigration is controlled by the government, the government can reliably react to population growth because it's relatively stable and predictable. If more children are born, then their births will be registered so the government knows to more school places will be required in five years time and more houses need to be built over the next twenty years. Now anyone can just hop over the channel at any point, resulting in unpredictable population growth and chaos.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 14, 2016, 09:10:17 am
NHS vs Middle East example...
... which completely ignores the very basic distinction that the UAE has a far higher per-capita income than the UK, and so can afford it.
Per capita GDP is about 1.5x the UK (although I suspect that is not the whole story).

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I think you ignored me writing the hospital is PROFITABLE. Only the first 3 days of intensive care is subsidized/paid by the Government. All other hospital income is paid for by the users. So it has nothing to do with per capita income.
It seems unliely if they are charging only $3800 for a month's care. Post stroke care needs a fairly large team of specialist physios and occupational therapists - try costing aup a month's stay in an acute stroke unit in the US.

I would be interested to know the date of your father's first presentation - evidence for thrombolysis in acute ischaemic stroke was coming in around 2007-2008, admittedly the NHS was a little slow off the ground but today, if you presented to a hospital with an acute stroke unit today you should be in the CT scanner within an hour, probably within 30 minutes as you are correct in that thrombolysis (clot dissolving) therapy should be given within three hours of symptoms developing.

As for haemorrhagic strokes - management is still "conservative" - there is no real role for surgery and initial therapy is supportive, perhaps managing raised ntracranial pressure helps. Certainly treatment in a specialist unit helps improve outcomes.

The NHS is not without its problems, certainly, it was dire in the 1970's worse in the 1980's and then got markedly better with increased resources. Unfortunately it has been going downhill again recently and it is clear that Cameron's plan is to get it off the government's balance sheet and sod the effect on care.

As for private care in the UK - well, I do have private insurance, but would not want anything major done in a private hospital. It certainly would not have helped you in the case of an acute stroke.

But the NHS is tangential to the current argument - except for Vote Leave blathering on (largely dishonestly) about how  much more money we would have to spend on the Nash if we pull out of Europe - deliberately linking the current state of the NHS with our membership of the EU when it has pretty much bugger all to do with it.

I note that the Vote Leave campaign has promised all sorts of monies would be available if we pull out - amounting to rather more than even their inflated estimates of how much EU membership costs us.

Quote from: Hero99
Yes it is the EU's fault we've not being building schools and houses fast enough to keep up.

When immigration is controlled by the government, the government can reliably react to population growth because it's relatively stable and predictable. If more children are born, then their births will be registered so the government knows to more school places will be required in five years time and more houses need to be built over the next twenty years. Now anyone can just hop over the channel at any point, resulting in unpredictable population growth and chaos.
No, it is not - the shortfall in housing extends back 20-30 years due to massive reduction in local authority building programmes and the immigration that everyone is worrying about dates back over the last 8-10 years.

(https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/new-homes-built-by-sector.jpg)

If you believe government will reliably react to anything then you have a lot more fath in politicians than I do.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 14, 2016, 09:34:04 am
As for private care in the UK - well, I do have private insurance, but would not want anything major done in a private hospital.

Precisely. That was the case for one of the surgeries I alluded to.

Fortunately I was able to persuade the NHS to bill the insurance company for a remarkably low £24000 (two world class surgeons, 8 hour operation).
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 14, 2016, 10:59:11 am
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Dental care in the UK is probably the worst I've ever encountered in any first world country, a lot worse than in Germany and even more so than in the US.
Really? So how does the UK manage to share the crown (https://top5ofanything.com/list/7f67f9bf/Countries-with-the-Healthiest-Teeth) for the healthiest teeth of any country in the world with Germany?

Aside from that the website "Top 5 of everything" isn't exactly renowned for being a credible source, had you actually read what it says you'd noticed that it talks about Dental Health of Children, and the study they cite looked at Children's teeth in 2006!  :palm:
The source was the OECD, which is generally regarded as fairly credible. Astonishingly enough I did read what it says, which is why I noticed that you conveniently omitted that it was the latest data available as of April 2015. And the health of children's teeth provides a better indicator of prevailing standards of care.

You can find anecdotal evidence to support whatever you want to believe, but your claim that dental care in the UK is "the worst" is demonstrably false. For a more nuanced assessment, take a look at this BBC article (http://), which references a recent World Health Organisation report.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 14, 2016, 11:18:17 am
Throw these brits out. They hardly have a relevant industry left. Have a leeching financial section that will sink after the brexit.

Please throw us out !!
Aerospace sector ?
Pharmaceutical sector ?
Defense sector ?

 |O



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 14, 2016, 11:25:13 am
Looks like it is a spammer, he posted the same thing last page under a different username.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 14, 2016, 11:26:57 am
"
And for Putin. Why the hell they didn't add Russia to the NATO after the wall came down? Problem solved? Of course not, they need a enemy (for both sides)."

Yeah. Some recently declassified documents suggest that Russia tried to join thee NATO and was turned down, giving birth to the Warsaw pack and the cold war, which potentially could have wiped out humanity.

Who is behind all this? Just look at who benefited from this.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 14, 2016, 11:31:10 am
Who is behind all this? Just look at who benefited from this.
I never thought of you as a conspiracy theorist, more like a "give me the clear numbers and I tell you what is going on".
So who benefitted? Arm dealers? naaah they don't sell nuclear arms (yet).
Defense contractors? Hmmm maybe but they are still peanuts compared to Apple for instance  :)
But I do wonder where all the arms come from when somewhere a war is going on that nobody wants. There are only a few countries that make arms and they were supposed to be against the war in Syria, so where the hell do all the guns come from? Follow the moneytrail  ;)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FrankD on June 14, 2016, 12:46:58 pm
Looks like it is a spammer, he posted the same thing last page under a different username.

Not a spammer. Somebody stole my line.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 14, 2016, 01:16:21 pm
"But I do wonder where all the arms come from when somewhere a war is going on that nobody wants. "

Lots of people want that war, for different reasons. Some are known, and others speculated.

Many more arr working hard against their own interests too.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 14, 2016, 01:36:09 pm
No, it is not - the shortfall in housing extends back 20-30 years due to massive reduction in local authority building programmes and the immigration that everyone is worrying about dates back over the last 8-10 years.
As far as housing is concerned, yes the UK shares some of the blame but the EU is hardly blameless.

Education is another matter though.  There was no way to predict the massive increase in school age children and the fact that a lot of them don't have English as a first language doesn't help either.

Quote
If you believe government will reliably react to anything then you have a lot more fath in politicians than I do.
I have more faith in the the UK government than I do in the EU politburo.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: onesixright on June 14, 2016, 01:37:40 pm
Wel one reason:

Zeitgeist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTbIu8Zeqp0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTbIu8Zeqp0)

The world is a sick place...


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 14, 2016, 02:59:59 pm
Education is another matter though.  There was no way to predict the massive increase in school age children and the fact that a lot of them don't have English as a first language doesn't help either.

Quote
If you believe government will reliably react to anything then you have a lot more fath in politicians than I do.
I have more faith in the the UK government than I do in the EU politburo.

OK, yes migration has had an impact on school numbers. there is a review here http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/365 (http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/365)

One pertinent comment is:

"In 2013 there were a recorded 779,000 births in the UK of which 25% (197,000) were to non-UK born mothers. This compares with 669,000 births in the UK in 2002 of which 17% (110,500) were to non-UK born mothers."

So, 110,000 more births per annum (an increase of 16.4%) of which 86,500 were attributable to migration, plus perhaps an additional 10,000 per year under 15's who were born outside the UK. Also there was some increase of about 23,500 extra births to mothers themselves born in the UK so there is a general upward trend at present. Also note that we have not broken down that figure into EU and non EU, nor looked at the impact of the migration from the 2004 expansion of the EU (predominantly Poland) or the 2007 expansion (Bulgaria and Romania).

But the problem I have here is that a government who is able to "reliably react to change" has, on average, 4.5 years to provide a primary school place and 11.5 years to provide a secondary school place - remember these are births we are talkng about predominantly, not direct migration.

Despite this there is a shortfall which the government could have easily predicted and reacted to - but failed to do so adequately. It's not as if the parents of the extra kids are not, on the whole, economically active (see previous discussion) - so they were contributing to the tax revenues needed to increase school places.

On the general question of the cost of EU membership this is a good graphc which breaks down government spending of tax revenue.

(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02871/taxtable1_2871685b.jpg)

Note the very tiny slice which goes to the EU.



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 14, 2016, 03:39:06 pm
I have more faith in the the UK government than I do in the EU politburo.

I don't, having seen the UK politician's actions and inactions over the decades. That continues: the standard of the current debate is a national disgrace, and all sides are lying through their teeth.

The only significant question is which side is telling the more egregious self-serving lies. Currently it looks like the exit shower are marginally worse.

I'd love to find a way of skewering the current UK (and other) political classes, but unfortunately voting exit will skewer me more than it will skewer them :(
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 14, 2016, 04:42:35 pm
The only significant question is which side is telling the more egregious self-serving lies.

Your own claim that the lights will go off a few years after the exit was also kind of out there.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Jeroen3 on June 14, 2016, 04:56:27 pm
No. The United Kingdom is better than Venezuela. The lights won't go out.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 14, 2016, 05:14:33 pm
No. The United Kingdom is better than Venezuela. The lights won't go out.

Maybe, maybe not.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/26/engineers-warn-of-looming-uk-energy-gap (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/26/engineers-warn-of-looming-uk-energy-gap)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 14, 2016, 05:24:20 pm
The only significant question is which side is telling the more egregious self-serving lies.
Your own claim that the lights will go off a few years after the exit was also kind of out there.

Firstly that's a strawman argument: I was making the point about (lack of) sovereignty not about whether it was more likely in/out.

Secondly, they will go out in a few years - unless significant amounts of new generating plant are brought online. I've been to IET meetings where that (rhetorical) question has been posed by those that are extremely knowledgable about the supply industry; that was their answer. That is true whether we are inside or outside the EU.

"National Grid has for the first time [2015-11-04] used “last resort” emergency powers to tell companies to reduce their electricity usage in an effort to avoid the risk of blackouts." https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/04/national-grid-issues-urgent-call-for-extra-power (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/04/national-grid-issues-urgent-call-for-extra-power)

"O’Hara said [National] Grid’s own models suggest that between 7-10 further NISMs may occur over winter, but that other variables could lead to more or fewer market alerts." Fortunately (?) it was a very warm winter. http://theenergyst.com/national-grid-plays-down-blackout-fears/ (http://theenergyst.com/national-grid-plays-down-blackout-fears/)

"The UK is facing an unprecedented “energy gap” in a decade’s time, according to engineers, with demand for electricity likely to outstrip supply by more than 40%, which could lead to blackouts." https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/26/engineers-warn-of-looming-uk-energy-gap (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/26/engineers-warn-of-looming-uk-energy-gap)

Finally, there is a secondary question as to whether the investment is more/less likely to be made when we are in/out. That is intensely political, e.g. EDF's finance director resigned very publically over political pressure (to close a deal) from the French government. Is that political pressure more/less likely to occur if we are in/out?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 14, 2016, 05:29:20 pm
The United Kingdom is better than Venezuela. The lights won't go out.

Yes, and no. See my previous post.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 14, 2016, 05:30:41 pm
That is true whether we are inside or outside the EU.

Ok, I thought that you are tying the lights-off to Brexit, now I understand you don't.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 14, 2016, 05:35:21 pm
That is true whether we are inside or outside the EU.
Ok, I thought that you are tying the lights-off to Brexit, now I understand you don't.

Due to the intense political activity in this area, I think lights out is marginally more likely to happen if we Brexit.

Lights going out will cause riots in the streets. "Loss of sovereignty" hasn't caused anything remotely like that. Hence any imagined sovereignty is demonstrably less important.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 14, 2016, 06:10:50 pm


That is true whether we are inside or outside the EU.
Ok, I thought that you are tying the lights-off to Brexit, now I understand you don't.

Due to the intense political activity in this area, I think lights out is marginally more likely to happen if we Brexit.

Lights going out will cause riots in the streets. "Loss of sovereignty" hasn't caused anything remotely like that. Hence any imagined sovereignty is demonstrably less important.

So, marginally more likely riots in the streets due to lights off if Brexit?  :)

All that FUD will go away after the vote, regardless of the outcome.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 14, 2016, 07:58:05 pm
I see that the perennial bellwether of elections, referenda and a quality publication to boot, The Sun newspaper has come out today as a BeLeaver (excuse the pun).

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1277920/we-urge-our-readers-to-believe-in-britain-and-vote-to-leave-the-eu-in-referendum-on-june-23/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1277920/we-urge-our-readers-to-believe-in-britain-and-vote-to-leave-the-eu-in-referendum-on-june-23/)

For the uninitiated, The Sun, a Murdoch rag and regular purveyor of facsimiles of the female form, has sucessfully backed pretty much every vote I can remember over the past 30 years or so. Whether they have pulled the right straw on this one remains to be seen.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 14, 2016, 09:16:12 pm
Whether they have pulled the right straw on this one remains to be seen.
Hm.  So a bit like my SatNav... gets it wrong for most of the trip and then converges on the correct arrival time as you approach your destination?
Should be a fun day tomorrow, I'll be down by the Thames riverside to cheer the fishing flotilla as it heads up to Westminster.
Insane to remain.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 14, 2016, 09:26:31 pm


That is true whether we are inside or outside the EU.
Ok, I thought that you are tying the lights-off to Brexit, now I understand you don't.

Due to the intense political activity in this area, I think lights out is marginally more likely to happen if we Brexit.

Lights going out will cause riots in the streets. "Loss of sovereignty" hasn't caused anything remotely like that. Hence any imagined sovereignty is demonstrably less important.

So, marginally more likely riots in the streets due to lights off if Brexit?  :)

All that FUD will go away after the vote, regardless of the outcome.

Well, firstly it's a bit more on topic than Brexit, and secondly we have been slipping gradually towards an electricity supply disaster since we sold the Central Electricity Generating Board thirty years ago to various crooks who were overjoyed to find they had purchased no responsibility for supply resilience.  And things that might happen in twenty years are of no interest to politicians. 

Now a solution that will certainly take more than ten years seems to be of similarly little interest.   The politicians are just hoping they won't be the ones in charge when we start having rotating power cuts.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 14, 2016, 09:45:19 pm
So what? Many things we took for granted today were once alienn to us: science, anti slavery, same sex marriage,  equal rights for minorities, votig rights forr women, democracy, ......

If we didn't allow alien expressions, we would still be livining caves

You are rambling somewhat incomprehensibly and are still inventing stuff that you imagine I said or think, so I'll answer what appear to be a question.

All those are internal changes to a society, so it's a debate of consent amongst ourselves.
Immigration is fundamentally a debate over accommodating external cultures.

Nobody in the UK has consented to the mass importation of a goat herding culture, simply because we don't have enough goats to go around, and we'd rather our community resources be reserved for people who are still useful in the 12th/21st century.

We are never going to run short of Jewish Scientists or Indian Doctors, so why bother trying to accommodate anyone from cultures that fundamentally don't fit in.
There is never going to be a time when we run short of our incumbent followers of sky pixies, of which 50% in the UK are homophobic, thus importing more makes no sense.
There is never going to be a time when we can say, "yep none of our sky pixie residents are going to go postal and kill 50 LGBT people", because sky pixie people are all turning out to be inherently unpredictable. It costs under an absolute fortune for our intelligence departments to monitor them 24/7/365.

How many new hashtags and midnight candles do we want to repeat before admitting that diversity which bloody mindedly insists on including this religion isn't working, that 1%-99% of their culture hates us and that's a good enough reason not to put up with their shit any more.
Yes it sucks to be a moderate Arab but religious violence and hate is their cultural baggage, not ours, the Left needs to stop making excuses for a homophobic, misogynistic, medieval culture.
Being a religion/minority/different colour is amazingly not an excuse to inflict your retarded shit on other countries.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 14, 2016, 10:05:36 pm
The politicians are just hoping they won't be the ones in charge when we start having rotating power cuts.
Amother infamous example of such myopia is, of course, paying for the building works on the Houses of Parliament.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 14, 2016, 10:33:33 pm
Lights going out will cause riots in the streets. "Loss of sovereignty" hasn't caused anything remotely like that.

Germany is headed for destruction within a single generation (http://newobserveronline.com/germany-nonwhites-majority-in-one-generation/). You think after muslims get more political power they will be smart enough to put the economy over handouts/jizya from the kafirs? You think the most productive people in Europe will stay when this all goes down?

We have years to solve this before it becomes unsolvable without ethnic cleansing. It seems unlikely anything will be solved within the EU. I for one am no longer optimistic about solutions, but I doubt we will make war either. We will go quietly into the night, waving to the best of us as they leave us behind (white flight). South Africa is the model for western Europe, they have a lot of trouble keeping the lights on as well.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 14, 2016, 10:59:39 pm
Together we stand, divided we fall... It's never a good thing to lose influence... Not for the EU and not for you Brits.  :(

Trouble is, putting all the eggs in one basket means if the basket drops, all eggs are broken.

History shows there are bad people who manage to get into power.  Had Europe been a single unified government (no Britain) when Hitler got into power, there would have been no recovery.  America would not be able to do what it did without the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" that was the British Island.

The more nations, the more the competition, and the more the options.  Competition helps every nation improve themselves.  When a nation becomes a failed nation, that it is not a "one world government" means (a) the average folks has examples how other nations work better and (b) some place to run to for safety.  With a "single world unified government", folks will have no where to go.  They will be totally under the thumb of the bad lone government.

Nations are choices available for people.  A smaller number of nations means a smaller number of available alternatives for people.  Governments are never fond of giving there own people choices. 

That said, it is important to add that that I am not in favor of unrestrained immigration.  A nation must have control of its identity, otherwise, it is a a piece of land without distinquishing characteristics.  Immigrants must understand that if they make their new home just like their old (non-assimulation), then the new home will have all the negatives of the home from which they escaped.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2016, 11:44:25 pm
The more nations, the more the competition, and the more the options.  Competition helps every nation improve themselves.  When a nation becomes a failed nation, that it is not a "one world government" means (a) the average folks has examples how other nations work better and (b) some place to run to for safety.  With a "single world unified government", folks will have no where to go.  They will be totally under the thumb of the bad lone government.
Oh my. More nations you say, competition? Well, and then comes one big nation and deals with each smaller nation one by one. EDIT: //As you mentioned Hitler, he had been allowed to do exactly that until it became already too late for larger countries too.//
Bunch of independent cockroaches I may say. Unless country is really big, it cannot pull any grand projects like space launches, therefore get outperformed by those who can pull off that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule)
How do you think USA managed to to ruin Soviet union? The major thing was get it divided it into pieces on national basis. All of the former might and economy of the newly formed countries was ruined in instant.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 15, 2016, 12:10:10 am
The more nations, the more the competition, and the more the options.  Competition helps every nation improve themselves.  When a nation becomes a failed nation, that it is not a "one world government" means (a) the average folks has examples how other nations work better and (b) some place to run to for safety.  With a "single world unified government", folks will have no where to go.  They will be totally under the thumb of the bad lone government.
Oh my. More nations you say, competition? Well, and then comes one big nation and deals with each smaller nation one by one. EDIT: //As you mentioned Hitler, he had been allowed to do exactly that until it became already too late for larger countries too.//
Bunch of independent cockroaches I may say. Unless country is really big, it cannot pull any grand projects like space launches, therefore get outperformed by those who can pull off that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule)
How do you think USA managed to to ruin Soviet union? The major thing was get it divided it into pieces on national basis. All of the former might and economy of the newly formed countries was ruined in instant.
Uhhh... isn't the US currently depending on Russia to launch rockets to the ISS? Speaking of which: the ISS is a collaboration of many countries. In other words: it doesn't matter whether a country is big or small as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 15, 2016, 12:17:48 am
Uhhh... isn't the US currently depending on Russia to launch rockets to the ISS? Speaking of which: the ISS is a collaboration of many countries. In other words: it doesn't matter whether a country is big or small as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
That's only because they lost big competition and proceeded to (successfully) conquer the rest of the world instead. Look what was happening in the Middle East and even Europe (Yugoslavia) during the last decades. All the time they bomb someone. If USSR was there, they would never even try what now is considered almost as given.
Quote
as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
Had a good laugh before going to sleep.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: xrunner on June 15, 2016, 12:20:55 am
Another topic gone astray ...  :popcorn:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 15, 2016, 01:46:39 am
The bets are still on Stay, despite the recent polls

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result?selectionName=leave (http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result?selectionName=leave)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 15, 2016, 02:44:02 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5BGGXoLIYI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5BGGXoLIYI)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 15, 2016, 04:49:28 am
The more nations, the more the competition, and the more the options.  Competition helps every nation improve themselves.  When a nation becomes a failed nation, that it is not a "one world government" means (a) the average folks has examples how other nations work better and (b) some place to run to for safety.  With a "single world unified government", folks will have no where to go.  They will be totally under the thumb of the bad lone government.
Oh my. More nations you say, competition? Well, and then comes one big nation and deals with each smaller nation one by one. EDIT: //As you mentioned Hitler, he had been allowed to do exactly that until it became already too late for larger countries too.//
Bunch of independent cockroaches I may say. Unless country is really big, it cannot pull any grand projects like space launches, therefore get outperformed by those who can pull off that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule)
How do you think USA managed to to ruin Soviet union? The major thing was get it divided it into pieces on national basis. All of the former might and economy of the newly formed countries was ruined in instant.
Uhhh... isn't the US currently depending on Russia to launch rockets to the ISS? Speaking of which: the ISS is a collaboration of many countries. In other words: it doesn't matter whether a country is big or small as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.

In mere 10 years of the space race, USA reached the moon.

Had USA and USSR been competing all these years since then, we would have been on Mars by now with a good size settlement instead of sharing rockets to the toy called ISS.

The removal of competition has been the most destructive force towards progress.

Imagine the progress we would have made had there been 3 or 4 super colliders competing instead of just one...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 15, 2016, 05:02:09 am
Imagine the progress we would have made had there been 3 or 4 super collides competing...

The USA had one under way in Texas, but after spending a billion dollars, Congress canceled the project on October 21, 1993.

Unless I'm mistaken, competition had nothing to do with it - and it was simple short-sightedness and ignorance wrapped up in the pressures of politics.  It has been said by some that the failure came down to the scientists not communicating the significance of what it might achieve ... and that Congress viewed the Higgs as 'just another particle'.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 15, 2016, 05:12:48 am
The bets are still on Stay, despite the recent polls

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result?selectionName=leave (http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result?selectionName=leave)

Yes, although the odds have been shortening on a Brexit particularly in the past few days as a series of polls have suggested a majority are for Brexit.

How people will vote at the ballot box isn't the same thing though, I can imagine many people who are not fully committed will vote remain as it's human nature to be risk averse and resist change. This occurred to some degree during the Scottish referendum vote which was too close to call.

I am sure that privately the SNP, a Scottish party who favour a Scottish breakup also want a Brexit, as that will likely trigger a second Scottish referendum, although that's not what they're publicly stating, favouring a remain vote when it comes to the EU. It's a stance that's never been explained to me, demand independance from one parliament that you have a reasonable amount of representation in to one where you don't, but that's another story.

The UKopposition leader is officially in the remain camp, although it seems to be rather begrudging: I am not at all convinced he means it.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Someone on June 15, 2016, 05:15:19 am
For the uninitiated, The Sun, a Murdoch rag and regular purveyor of facsimiles of the female form, has sucessfully backed pretty much every vote I can remember over the past 30 years or so. Whether they have pulled the right straw on this one remains to be seen.
Or you've greatly underestimated the power of the press to leadset public opinion.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 15, 2016, 05:15:55 am
The more nations, the more the competition, and the more the options.  Competition helps every nation improve themselves.  When a nation becomes a failed nation, that it is not a "one world government" means (a) the average folks has examples how other nations work better and (b) some place to run to for safety.  With a "single world unified government", folks will have no where to go.  They will be totally under the thumb of the bad lone government.
Oh my. More nations you say, competition? Well, and then comes one big nation and deals with each smaller nation one by one. EDIT: //As you mentioned Hitler, he had been allowed to do exactly that until it became already too late for larger countries too.//
Bunch of independent cockroaches I may say. Unless country is really big, it cannot pull any grand projects like space launches, therefore get outperformed by those who can pull off that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule)
How do you think USA managed to to ruin Soviet union? The major thing was get it divided it into pieces on national basis. All of the former might and economy of the newly formed countries was ruined in instant.

I would not consider Wiki the definitive source of history.  Many operatives (officials) of the era in TV interviews described our (USA's) strategy as outspend them until they run out of money.

A single bigger nation is not the only solution.  Smaller nations can form federations or coalition or mutual defense packs.

When all the eggs are in one lone basket, one defect (broken basket handle) will drop all the eggs.  A dozen baskets to carry two dozen eggs may be inefficient, but it certainly increase the probability that some will survive.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 15, 2016, 05:24:24 am
Imagine the progress we would have made had there been 3 or 4 super collides competing...

The USA had one under way in Texas, but after spending a billion dollars, Congress canceled the project on October 21, 1993.

Unless I'm mistaken, competition had nothing to do with it - and it was simple short-sightedness and ignorance wrapped up in the pressures of politics.  It has been said by some that the failure came down to the scientists not communicating the significance of what it might achieve ... and that Congress viewed the Higgs as 'just another particle'.

Yeah, I was very very displeased by the Texas collider construction shutdown.  With Fermi Lab also shut down, I am not sure we have anything close to high energy collider anymore.

When there is no one else I can compare to, I cannot be the slowest.  So now I am free to gloat about how fast I got things done while taking it slow.

Competition is the key to accelerate progress, whether it is with space, science, education or the very dull day-to-day living standard.  "Keeping up with the Joneses" probably made more living standard improvement than the "Great Society" program implemented by LBJ.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NANDBlog on June 15, 2016, 08:29:02 am
Uhhh... isn't the US currently depending on Russia to launch rockets to the ISS? Speaking of which: the ISS is a collaboration of many countries. In other words: it doesn't matter whether a country is big or small as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
It always amazes me that people think that the USA won the space race. They lost in almost everything.
Intercontinental ballistic missile (August 1957)
Artificial satellite (October 1957)
Dog in space (November 1957)
Satellite to orbit the moon (1959)
Man into space (April 1961)
Man to spend a day in orbit (August 1961)
Long-duration flight for five days (June 1963)
Woman in space (June 1963)
Man to perform a spacewalk (March 1965)
Add stuff like the MIR, the Lunokhods, the Molniya satellites... And the fact that they are currently able to send stuff to orbit, unlike NASA.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 15, 2016, 08:35:17 am
Uhhh... isn't the US currently depending on Russia to launch rockets to the ISS? Speaking of which: the ISS is a collaboration of many countries. In other words: it doesn't matter whether a country is big or small as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
That's only because they lost big competition and proceeded to (successfully) conquer the rest of the world instead. Look what was happening in the Middle East and even Europe (Yugoslavia) during the last decades. All the time they bomb someone. If USSR was there, they would never even try what now is considered almost as given.
Quote
as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
Had a good laugh before going to sleep.

What's so funny ?
USA buys the Russian engine because they have NOTHING better.
The world is better when nations work together.   |O
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: EEVblog on June 15, 2016, 08:46:51 am
I'm surprised at the poll, roughly split down the middle. I would have expected a much higher GO vote among an educated technical audience?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 15, 2016, 08:53:38 am
Had USA and USSR been competing all these years since then, we would have been on Mars by now with a good size settlement instead of sharing rockets to the toy called ISS.

The removal of competition has been the most destructive force towards progress.

Imagine the progress we would have made had there been 3 or 4 super colliders competing instead of just one...
So how it gets to the point that breakup of the USSR removed the competition but breakup of EU must increase it?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: TheAmmoniacal on June 15, 2016, 09:03:54 am
Makes me wonder, who's in favor of breaking up the United States of America into independent / sovereign states?

The provinces of Canada?
The states of Australia?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 15, 2016, 09:08:02 am
Uhhh... isn't the US currently depending on Russia to launch rockets to the ISS? Speaking of which: the ISS is a collaboration of many countries. In other words: it doesn't matter whether a country is big or small as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
That's only because they lost big competition and proceeded to (successfully) conquer the rest of the world instead. Look what was happening in the Middle East and even Europe (Yugoslavia) during the last decades. All the time they bomb someone. If USSR was there, they would never even try what now is considered almost as given.
Quote
as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
Had a good laugh before going to sleep.

What's so funny ?
USA buys the Russian engine because they have NOTHING better.
The world is better when nations work together.   |O
Because they almost never will honestly work together for greater good. Why Russians sell those engines? Because their space industry was desperate after USSR collapse. Also those engines won't be sold for long. Russia don't plan ISS collaboration to last for long as well.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 15, 2016, 09:16:27 am
I'm surprised at the poll, roughly split down the middle. I would have expected a much higher GO vote among an educated technical audience?

It is the opposite: the young and the rich want to stay, the old and the poor want to leave.

As usual, The Economist gives good info:  http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum (http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: EEVblog on June 15, 2016, 09:17:38 am
Makes me wonder, who's in favor of breaking up the United States of America into independent / sovereign states?
The provinces of Canada?
The states of Australia?

Hardly anyone. Because, you know, countries.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 15, 2016, 09:40:15 am
Makes me wonder, who's in favor of breaking up the United States of America into independent / sovereign states?

The last time they tried that the resulting conflict killed more Americans than any other war in history.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 15, 2016, 10:06:55 am
I'm surprised at the poll, roughly split down the middle. I would have expected a much higher GO vote among an educated technical audience?

I see the division in another way.

-The people who got their income their whole life from BIG GOVERMENT, army, librarian,... or are into subsidized fields vote stay, afraid to loose taxmoney.

-The people who work for de-facto private companies or are de-facto independent in unsubsidized fields vote leave, afraid to have to pay more taxmoney.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 15, 2016, 10:15:47 am
Makes me wonder, who's in favor of breaking up the United States of America into independent / sovereign states?
The provinces of Canada?
The states of Australia?

Hardly anyone. Because, you know, countries.

Just ask in Texas....
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 15, 2016, 10:50:38 am
I'm surprised at the poll, roughly split down the middle. I would have expected a much higher GO vote among an educated technical audience?

I see the division in another way.

-The people who got their income their whole life from BIG GOVERMENT, army, librarian,... or are into subsidized fields vote stay, afraid to loose taxmoney.

-The people who work for de-facto private companies or are de-facto independent in unsubsidized fields vote leave, afraid to have to pay more taxmoney.

Poll analysts reported that these 'money/work/education/commercial' considerations don't play a tipping role in the poll results.

They say that people with objective interests in a particular outcome who plan to vote against that outcome are found equally on both sides ...

Now, these are poll. We don't follow the same decision process for a poll as in the voting cabin.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 15, 2016, 11:01:08 am
Just ask in Texas....

It's 40% hispanic ...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 15, 2016, 11:07:21 am
"The more nations, the more the competition, and the more the options.  "

I would agree. In the policy circles, people are beginning to realize that the peace dividend of winning the cold war is more like peace poison over the last few decades in its emboldenning of risk taking that would have been unthinkable had another strong power existed.

I'm personally a believer of a multi polar world where there exists AA balance of power, thus long lasting peace. It is good for everyone.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 15, 2016, 12:04:20 pm
I'm surprised at the poll, roughly split down the middle. I would have expected a much higher GO vote among an educated technical audience?
The educated ones are 100% Go!   :-DD
To remain is insane.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 15, 2016, 12:26:44 pm
I'm surprised at the poll, roughly split down the middle. I would have expected a much higher GO vote among an educated technical audience?
The educated ones are 100% Go!   :-DD
To remain is insane.
Educated in what? Polls show it is opposite, those who are smart enough to be rich, are more against it. Breakup never ends well, especially in the near future. Living in the country which have experienced this stuff (although in much bigger scale, UK is a country by itself after all), I cannot say that those who vote for it, do have a tiny clue what will happen next. Here we experienced a complete chaos. And I cannot say that after 25 years it have completely settled.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 15, 2016, 12:31:12 pm
Educated in what? Polls show it is opposite, those who are smart enough to be rich, are more against it.
You shouldn't believe everything you read.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 15, 2016, 12:36:44 pm
Educated in what? Polls show it is opposite, those who are smart enough to be rich, are more against it.
You shouldn't believe everything you read.
Yet you call that 100% those against are insane??? There are tons of people in UK which will be directly negatively affected right away. Anyone who is exporting something will feel BREXIT on own skin.
EDIT: For example Simon (SparkyLabs) on this forum. Guess there will be significantly less of those who will to buy uCurrent from him.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 15, 2016, 12:39:22 pm
Interesting to see the stats on age, looks like the future generations want to stay in and the generation from the past likes to leave.
What if those young ones will leave the UK?  ;)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 15, 2016, 12:47:25 pm
Yet you call that 100% those against are insane???
No I didn't.  I said it was "insane to remain", which is something I believe.  The remain supporters are misguided, although probably a few are insane.  :-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 15, 2016, 12:56:40 pm
"looks like the future generations want to stay in and the generation from the past likes to leave.
What if those young ones will leave the UK?  ;)"

I have heard that too. Thus the call your grand mom campaign.

Young people are interesting. They seem to support policies that absolutely kill them in the long run.

Like someone said to me: when you are young and Republican, you have no heart. When you are old and Democrat, you have no brain. :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FrankD on June 15, 2016, 01:11:52 pm
A Brexit will be followed by a buy out. Gb still must pay there share in the dept that needs to be paid off by the EU. :scared: at a higher interest rate.

It is also foolish to think that the tax 'savings' from the brexit will benefit all. These usually ends up with the 10% of the population that controls 90% of the wealth.
The economic growth in the last 20..30 years is an illusion. It is mostly coming from running a higher national debt.

UK already has a better terms than the other EU countries. Those will be gone together with the veto rights on legislation.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 15, 2016, 01:47:47 pm
I was at Tower Bridge this morning, whilst on the way to work, to see the flotilla of trawlers go up the Thames.  The skippers are hard working fishermen who had a democratic right to have their voices heard.  What happened next saddened me, the behavior of the remain camp, Geldorf in particular, to disrupt freedom of speech by blaring out loud music whilst shouting and gesticulating obscenities was tragic.  I hope this gets the coverage it should, it was a clear demonstration of how democracy is dead on the remain side of the argument.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 15, 2016, 01:49:53 pm

The UKopposition leader is officially in the remain camp, although it seems to be rather begrudging: I am not at all convinced he means it.

Jezza Corbyn is an old school lefty, part of the Old Labour party.  I think his policies are daft, but at least he is a man of principle.

Or so I thought until all this!

He has always been a Eurosceptic, and voted against the EU in the past.  And yet he has somehow been brow-beaten into supporting remain!
How on earth is it Old Left to support the state approved import of cheap labour from poorer countries?  The founders of the labour political movement would be spinning in their graves to see such a sell-out.  That's why Corbyn has been so quite on this.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 15, 2016, 02:04:42 pm
"What happened next saddened me, the behavior of the remain camp, Geldorf in particular, to disrupt freedom of speech by blaring out loud music whilst shouting and gesticulating obscenities was tragic.  I hope this gets the coverage it should, it was a clear demon"

Thats no different from those protestors at Trump rallies who try to shoot him out, block venues to his rally and attack his supporters.

The left is tokerant of any view as long as it is consistent with theirs.

It is often the case that people who demand diversity of others are the least tolerant to diversity themselves.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 15, 2016, 02:08:07 pm
The left is tokerant of any view as long as it is consistent with theirs.
Maybe it's not just the left.  Maybe we have outgrown tolerance... if so, it won't end well.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 15, 2016, 02:28:15 pm
I'm personally a believer of a multi polar world where there exists AA balance of power, thus long lasting peace. It is good for everyone.

You ought to study game theory. It is always the case that such things are unstable, and will eventually settle down to two opposing power blocks.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 15, 2016, 05:14:24 pm
Uhhh... isn't the US currently depending on Russia to launch rockets to the ISS? Speaking of which: the ISS is a collaboration of many countries. In other words: it doesn't matter whether a country is big or small as long as the countries are willing to work together great things can be achieved.
It always amazes me that people think that the USA won the space race. They lost in almost everything.
Intercontinental ballistic missile (August 1957)
Artificial satellite (October 1957)
Dog in space (November 1957)
Satellite to orbit the moon (1959)
Man into space (April 1961)
Man to spend a day in orbit (August 1961)
Long-duration flight for five days (June 1963)
Woman in space (June 1963)
Man to perform a spacewalk (March 1965)
Add stuff like the MIR, the Lunokhods, the Molniya satellites... And the fact that they are currently able to send stuff to orbit, unlike NASA.

I did not say whether USA won (or not).  The statement I made was that "we reached the moon within 10 years."  That was huge development.  Some consider "we won" because we reached the moon first.  Whoever the winner was, neither USA nor USSR did much after the space race was over.

That both were doing-less supports my point that absences the pressure of competition, the progress is impeded.

I futher posited that had the Space Race continued to this day, we may be on Mars already.  Instead, absence competition, we drew blanks after blanks once the Apollo program ended.  To add insult to injury, one of NASA primary goal now is Muslim Outreach*1.  I don't care if it is Muslim outreach or Buddish Outreach or Amish Outreach, how would that help us reach beyond the moon?  And now we have to get a ride from someone else to even get into orbit!

Had there been competition, perhaps NASA would have focused more on Space - that is the S in NASA. 

Cooperation has its benefits, and has its costs.  Lost of competition is one of its costs.  Lost of National-pride and the resulting lost of national support is another costs.  Another possible cost is cooperation became a cover for doing less.  Therefore, one question to ask is: would EU itself become a progress-zapping entity, or not.

From where I sit, it appears to me EU is already a progress-zapping entity.  Like a living organism, a bureaucracy tends to focus on its own existance and its own growth.  EU bureaucracy will grow EU so as to expand the EU bureaucracy.  Progress of participating nations and the well-being of the citizens of the participating nations is but an after thought.

*1 Re "Muslim Outreach" - This was big news then, you can still see some links surviving to this day:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/07/nasas_muslim_outreach_106214.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/07/nasas_muslim_outreach_106214.html)
Excerpt: "It's not really surprising that President Obama told NASA administrator Charles Bolden that his highest priority should be "to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science ... and math and engineering." It fits with so much that we already knew about the president."



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 15, 2016, 05:28:00 pm
... a bureaucracy tends to focus on its own existance and its own growth.

... as observed and formulated in the last century by a chap that worked in British Colonial Office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law)

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=Parkinson+law (https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=Parkinson+law)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 15, 2016, 10:39:19 pm
This is a bit worrying:

Communication on Online Platforms and the Digital Single Market Opportunities and Challenges for Europe
http://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Platforms-Communication.pdf (http://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Platforms-Communication.pdf)

pg12
basically it's suggesting a unique ID to authenticate yourself on the internet.

Now one of the things that keeps society from rapidly failing into a Totalitarian state, is the freedom to speak out anonymously on the internet about one's Government.

If they start requiring an ID to use social media, then you can kiss goodbye to discussing any non Politically Correct topics, because just like any right wing thinking on Facebook, it'll get deleted by Zuckerberg's progressive Thought Police and your name stuck on a watch list

No surprise that the arch Federalist, Juncker is behind this potentially nightmarish idea.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 16, 2016, 12:01:05 am
Poll analysts reported that these 'money/work/education/commercial' considerations don't play a tipping role in the poll results.
They did their best to generalise aspects of both camps in every breakline.

They still call a statefunded librarian or an anthropologue with a fixed-job-for-life in an arts museum "highly educated" and a welder and an baker "low educated"
They still call the company "greenbuilders ecoplan sunroof" private, but they get 90% of their income from the state.

After that, it's easy to not find anything, or quote that there's a 50/50 division between "private"or between "high educated"

Literally everyone I know that is funded by the state, with a useless productivity for the economy/progress, that would make much less money in private, is PRO-EU, PRO-Obama/Hillary, and has hate and fear towards everything that tries to rationalise their unnatural position.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 16, 2016, 12:44:37 am
Had there been competition, perhaps NASA would have focused more on Space - that is the S in NASA. 
Perhaps making peace war on earth and putting food in people's bellies was regarded more important than putting a few people on Mars. Mars isn't going anywhere in the next couple of million years so there is enough time to go there.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 16, 2016, 02:48:52 am
basically it's suggesting a unique ID to authenticate yourself on the internet.

You're reaching, all they are saying is they want to take the power away from google/facebook from being the only a single log on and force websites to allow other type of universal logons less suited to data mining. Now it might be part of some nefarious scheme, but the document doesn't hint at it.

I'm more concerned about the term "hate speech".
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: G7PSK on June 16, 2016, 03:24:29 am
It would not surprise me that even if there was a majority vote to leave the EU that we don't. The PM would fall either by his own hand or by a coalition of the Labour and SNP and Conservatives along with others who want to stay, this will lead to a general election which will be won by a coalition of Labour,SNP and Liberals who will turn around and say that as they did not call for the referendum,were never behind it and against leaving the EU they are not bound by the result they will keep the UK in the EU. We will end up being ruled by Angela Merkel and her knockoff clone Nicola Sturgeon.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 16, 2016, 05:02:51 am
Young people are interesting. They seem to support policies that absolutely kill them in the long run.

A universal trait.

They have the openness of mind and rebellious attitude to take up 'new' causes, but not the critical thinking or experience of having lived through previous efforts.

“Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it” - and often the key elements are in the not-so-obvious detail.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 16, 2016, 05:12:30 am
a coalition of Labour,SNP and Liberals who will turn around and say that as they did not call for the referendum,were never behind it and against leaving the EU they are not bound by the result they will keep the UK in the EU.

I think you'd have a couple new terrorist organizations supported by a large part of your population the next day ... seems a bad idea.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 16, 2016, 05:17:13 am
I think the next parliamentary election would be more revealing.

They can't ignore that result.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 16, 2016, 07:31:09 am
It would not surprise me that even if there was a majority vote to leave the EU that we don't.

That's my opinion too. Juncker has already said that if the UK vote to leave the EU will have to change, which to my mind is a key reason to vote for an exit, as remaining won't fix anything, the EU's declared steamroller to further federalism will continue like it or not.

There's a story that came out yesterday that Juncker's preparing to make a statement. Probably the worst thing he could do, like a red rag to a bull.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: G7PSK on June 16, 2016, 07:35:53 am
a coalition of Labour,SNP and Liberals who will turn around and say that as they did not call for the referendum,were never behind it and against leaving the EU they are not bound by the result they will keep the UK in the EU.

I think you'd have a couple new terrorist organizations supported by a large part of your population the next day ... seems a bad idea.
The English person dose not think that way, they would just sit down under it, grumble about it until we worked ourselves up enough to have another abortive referendum. Remember we have not had a revolution here since 1642-1651. Cromwell set up the civil service to keep us quite.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 16, 2016, 09:28:24 am
Young people are interesting. They seem to support policies that absolutely kill them in the long run.

A universal trait.

They have the openness of mind and rebellious attitude to take up 'new' causes, but not the critical thinking or experience of having lived through previous efforts.

“Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it” - and often the key elements are in the not-so-obvious detail.
Old people are not a tiny bit better either, even worse. They trust all the BS which TV says. Then go and vote with "their own" opinion.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: DenzilPenberthy on June 16, 2016, 09:44:28 am
I was at Tower Bridge this morning, whilst on the way to work, to see the flotilla of trawlers go up the Thames.  The skippers are hard working fishermen who had a democratic right to have their voices heard. 

Yeah, bravely led by Farage who in the three years he was on the European Fisheries Committee, only bothered to turn up to one out of the 42 meetings. He also failed to vote in any of the three votes to amend the Common Fisheries Policy or to introduce measures to give more quota to small scale sustainable coastal fleets e.g. exactly the sort of boats that were with him.    :palm: |O
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 16, 2016, 01:35:26 pm
Yeah, bravely led by Farage
I think it was a tactical error that Farage was there.  They would have got better coverage if he was not present.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 16, 2016, 02:03:23 pm
Fundamentally it has turned into a question of whether you believe

Disgusting, shameful, a national disgrace.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 16, 2016, 02:35:13 pm
Makes me wonder, who's in favor of breaking up the United States of America into independent / sovereign states?
The provinces of Canada?
The states of Australia?

Hardly anyone. Because, you know, countries.

Just ask in Texas....


Or any area of California not in San Francisco or Los Angeles...  There are always proposals floating around to break up California into several states.  One day the issue may just make the ballot.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 16, 2016, 02:53:37 pm
Had there been competition, perhaps NASA would have focused more on Space - that is the S in NASA. 
Perhaps making peace war on earth and putting food in people's bellies was regarded more important than putting a few people on Mars. Mars isn't going anywhere in the next couple of million years so there is enough time to go there.

That's what the dinosaurs thought...  Richard Feynman, among many others, has called for more effort on 'locational diversity'.  We, as a civilization, are doomed if we don't spread out.  One small meteor and we're all toast.

The space program was probably the best investment the US has ever made.  Certainly better than dumping a trillion dollars into the Middle East!

I had no involvement with the program but I worked in small machine shops that did.  Tens of thousands of jobs were created in the skilled labor and technical fields.  Not to mention engineering!   Now we sit around watching reruns of Oprah.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 16, 2016, 03:51:33 pm
Fundamentally it has turned into a question of whether you believe
  • the duplicitious lying bastards that have a job
  • the duplicitious lying bastards trying to get a job

Disgusting, shameful, a national disgrace.
Amen

If you voted based on who has tole the least untruths I think the Remain campaign would just about have the edge but by a very slim margin. Mainly because when Osborne says he will run through a budget with £15b of cuts and £15b of tax hikes, however much you think that is scare-mongering, he is the chancellor and could present such a budget if he wanted. When the Vote Leave mob promise £100m a week more on the NHS you know that they do not actually have the power to make that commitment (however much they want it).

I have changed my mind in one respect which is that, up to about a month ago I would have confidently forecast a narrow majority in favour of remaining - now I'm not so sure.

I have also swung to the view that out should mean out, at the beginning of it all I though that if we voted out then we should aim for membership of the EEA - but that is too much of a loose-don't win scenario. If we go out we should aim at negotiating the necessary set of Free Trade agreements. It might even be that in 10 or 15 years we will have a vibrant economy again but it will take much more vision, dedication and commitment to the necessary change than I credit the UK government being capable of. It won't help that a Leave vote could see a vote of no confidence in Cameron and Osborne and possibly a radical change of government - but not to the Labour party because a) Corbyn is probably unelectable as PM and b) he's in the Remain campaign anyway. God help us if Boris were to become PM  :palm:

Edit: I note (http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june (http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/a_framework_for_taking_back_control_and_establishing_a_new_uk_eu_deal_after_23_june)) that the Leave campaign are now calling for a "considered framework" to be erected before actually invoking Article 50 - this seems to me to be an admission that the process could not possibly be complete within two years. This is not the stance they took, if I recall, at the beginning of the "debate".
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 16, 2016, 04:14:46 pm
Fundamentally it has turned into a question of whether you believe
  • the duplicitious lying bastards that have a job
  • the duplicitious lying bastards trying to get a job

Disgusting, shameful, a national disgrace.
Amen

If you voted based on who has tole the least untruths I think the Remain campaign would just about have the edge but by a very slim margin. Mainly because when Osborne says he will run through a budget with £15b of cuts and £15b of tax hikes, however much you think that is scare-mongering, he is the chancellor and could present such a budget if he wanted. When the Vote Leave mob promise £100m a week more on the NHS you know that they do not actually have the power to make that commitment (however much they want it).

That's pretty much my view.

Quote
I have changed my mind in one respect which is that, up to about a month ago I would have confidently forecast a narrow majority in favour of remaining - now I'm not so sure.

Fromthe start I've been presuming that brexit will win, because people are so pissed off with the current situation that they are ready to believe the grass is greener on the other side of the fence. Plus Murdoch annd the Barclay twins hate the EU (althought to be fair, the Torygraph coverage has been far more even handed that I expected).

Quote
God help us if Boris were to become PM  :palm:

In January I was thinking this could be a really bad year: Boris, Brexit, Trump.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 16, 2016, 04:25:11 pm
Fundamentally it has turned into a question of whether you believe
  • the duplicitious lying bastards that have a job
  • the duplicitious lying bastards trying to get a job

Disgusting, shameful, a national disgrace.
The biggest problem with these kind of referenda is that they will always be a vote of confidence in the government and not the subject at hand. I think you can produce a fairly accurate prediction of the outcome from how long the current parliament has been in power.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 16, 2016, 05:03:30 pm

Quote
If we go out we should aim at negotiating the necessary set of Free Trade agreements.

This is a joke , you don't want the rules from CEE, but  yes you want a   Free Trade agreements with the CEE.

This sound me as the  greeks that they want  to borrow us money but they didn't want to return us . Simply ,a chantage .

And if it will won or it will lost the refendum , the CEE will apply the Lincoln  doctrine:  Union Federal states,  Common debt and  Treasure , a federation indivisible



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 16, 2016, 05:19:43 pm

Quote
If we go out we should aim at negotiating the necessary set of Free Trade agreements.

This is a joke , you don't want the rules from CEE, but  yes you want a   Free Trade agreements with the CEE.
No, I would like to remain in the EU, but if we leave going for individual deals under WTO rules would be impossibly complex and a Norwegian style deal would be a pyrrhic victory.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 16, 2016, 05:41:35 pm
The news that Jo Cox MP has been murdered has resulted in the suspension of the campaign, and there is speculation that the vote may be delayed.

One of her colleagues, Maria Eagle MP, tweeted a supposed eyewitness report that the killer shouted "Britain First", although the tweet has now been deleted. The Independent is reporting that several witnesses heard the words.

A 52-year-old man has been arrested in connection with the shooting, named by locals (but not officially) as Thomas (Tommy) Mair.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tom66 on June 16, 2016, 05:49:52 pm
I'm fairly sure that any kind of backtrack on the result would lead to:
) Widespread protests and riots
) Loss of confidence in the PM by a majority of his MPs resulting in an election
) Significant financial harm as a result of uncertainty in the future of the country

I very much doubt that the government will ignore the result, but I could see a second referendum being held.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 16, 2016, 06:15:17 pm
The news that Jo Cox MP has been murdered has resulted in the suspension of the campaign, and there is speculation that the vote may be delayed.

One of her colleagues, Maria Eagle MP, tweeted a supposed eyewitness report that the killer shouted "Britain First", although the tweet has now been deleted. The Independent is reporting that several witnesses heard the words.


Let the conspiracies begin...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 16, 2016, 06:24:40 pm
This is a joke , you don't want the rules from CEE, but  yes you want a   Free Trade agreements with the CEE.

This sound me as the  greeks that they want  to borrow us money but they didn't want to return us . Simply ,a chantage .

That's one of the stupidest parts of the EU.  Why should countries homogenize their laws just so they can trade with each other?  It makes no sense.  An academic argument could be made that homogenized laws allow for lowered costs due to less regional variances, but then the ivory tower legislators come up with stuff like RoHS and cost infinitely more money with that one stupid idea than any savings from equalized laws would bring.

And equalizing (or trying to) so many varied countries with radically different social, political, economic and financial structures is never going to work well.  Some will always be coming out ahead and some falling behind.  Countries ought to be competing with each other for the best immigrants, for business, for the best educators and workers and to deliver the most productive and efficient framework of laws to their citizens.  That has largely been lost over the last few decades due to the largesse that many EU countries have voted themselves, and it's gotten worse after the EU (see: immigrant crisis).



Quote
And if it will won or it will lost the refendum , the CEE will apply the Lincoln  doctrine:  Union Federal states,  Common debt and  Treasure , a federation indivisible

I'm not sure what you mean - are you suggesting that the EU will refuse to allow the UK to leave?  That wouldn't go over well for many reasons.  But the UK (luckily for them) maintained their currency, so leaving is a much easier prospect.  And the process for leaving is written into law, so it's not like the EU can just say "no, we refuse to let you go".  I realize it must be approved, but if the UK votes exit and Brussels technocrats refuse to honor the will of the voters, it's going to get very very ugly.

I think the EU is doomed to ultimate failure.  It will fall apart within my lifetime.  It might get pretty ugly before that happens, but ultimately, the people getting the short end of the stick will decide it's better to just leave.  When the UK leaves and experiences prosperity above and beyond the rest of the EU, that will be the trigger that causes many of the populations of other members to call for an exit as well.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 16, 2016, 06:31:13 pm

The Brexit is a tiger paper


European Union is as a tube of toothpaste: its content is very easy empty, but  for returning to put in place ,this is effort  impossible.
The UK is not going to leave the European Union, vote what the British vote, because in practice leave the European Union is that, impossible.
Of course, it is completely impossible if you belong to the Euro Zone, hence even the most lost items "Syriza" or "PODEMOS" propose the mere theoretical hypothesis abandon the euro.
But it is that disposing of its own national currency, as in the present case, it is also impossible.
Mainly, it would concur to throw a jug of cold realism on the heads of those who fantasize utopian dreamers conservative to these hours with returning to  nineteenth century with a deregulated capitalism only with breaking with Brussels bureaucrats.
They want to believe in this fairy tale forget that, regardless of their membership of the European Union, the United Kingdom will remain bound to comply to the letter all the provisions of the more than 700 international treaties will continue tying feet hands and hands to Her Majesty's Government to prevent delay clock 200 years of history.


Treaties ranging from the World Trade Organization to the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank, among others hundreds and hundreds. But it is that just be the beginning.
 The beginning of the end. Because, since they dismantled its old heavy industry during Thatcher, the UK lives basically provide services to the rest of its EU partners.
The main them, and with great difference is to lend money through his mammoth financial system. British citizens, missing more, they may want to leave the Union, but its banks, wants it or not,
they all go to shit  if they lose their privileged access to the continental market.
Although before embarking on this very patriotic journey toward certain bankruptcy the most likely would be for the City in full opted to move its corporate headquarters (and the thousands of skilled and high-paying jobs) across the English Channel.
For Not to mention the taxes that would no longer pay in the UK to move to pay them to the French, German or Spanish treasury department.
Renouncing the European market simply is not an option for them. The matter is as simple as they can't do it. Point.


But there is more, much more. It happens that the UK has the great fortune of being the first recipient of foreign direct investment among all who make up the EU country.
Specifically, 20% of the precious manna from heaven is heading to its shores every year.
Needless to say, without guaranteed unhindered access to the continental market, the owners of all that mountain of money would lack time to pack up and run with destination to Heathrow Airport.
And for what? To prevent arriving a few Romanians immigrants washing dishes and sweeping floors in London ? Well, neither for that would serve to  slam the door to Brussels.
Romanians (and Spanish) would follow to cross their borders. As by the way, the Norway and Switzerland borders  , two countries that are not part of the European Union but,
like it or not, they are obliged to accept the free movement of native foreign EU workers under penalty of see canceled their trade agreements with the Union.
If Switzerland and Norway don't have more remedy  to swallow this toad ,could you  do something very different from the UK? Of course not.
They also would swallow ,for beginning with the pride. That said, they will remain.

José García Domínguez

http://www.libremercado.com/2016-06-15/jose-garcia-dominguez-el-brexit-es-un-tigre-de-papel-79283/ (http://www.libremercado.com/2016-06-15/jose-garcia-dominguez-el-brexit-es-un-tigre-de-papel-79283/)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 16, 2016, 06:44:34 pm
And equalizing (or trying to) so many varied countries with radically different social, political, economic and financial structures is never going to work well.  Some will always be coming out ahead and some falling behind.  Countries ought to be competing with each other for the best immigrants, for business, for the best educators and workers and to deliver the most productive and efficient framework of laws to their citizens.
That won't work in today's global economy. I see you are from the US. For a moment imagine each state will have it's own language, currency and radically different regulations. How easy would it be to trade between those states and how competitive would each state be compared to China or India?
Europe used to be that patchwork of countries, languages and currencies about 2 to 3 decades ago. Sometimes you need to team up to keep up with the competition.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 16, 2016, 06:48:42 pm
Quote
I'm not sure what you mean - are you suggesting that the EU will refuse to allow the UK to leave?

No exactly , if the referendum win ,the UK  can go out. But the CEE will change the laws and will tend to become an Union of the federal State as the USA.

Quote
For a moment imagine each state will have it's own language, currency and radically different regulations

For this motive ,the CEE must be an oficial  language common for all the countries and the same times international,only at europe there are two language English and Spanish.

And for more logical must be the English that are more extended on Europe that the Spanish



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FrankD on June 16, 2016, 07:18:37 pm
With a Brexit most of the car industry that is left in GB will probable move to eastern Europe countries if the new gb government attempts to impose tax on them.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 16, 2016, 08:55:29 pm
God help us if Boris were to become PM  :palm:

In January I was thinking this could be a really bad year: Boris, Brexit, Trump.

Here is the upcoming future PM and P's, how the hell do they manage to look so WIERD? Why do Trump often look like a toad?Surely they are not
slightly sociopathic?:
(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/07/18/01/0CF6E7E400000514-3165988-Favourite_Boris_Johnson_had_until_recently_been_seen_as_a_favour-a-29_1437178865029.jpg)(https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTPBhRtaM_iVet4fcQeK9PGVsyMnfoWG-fWxS58XSUs7-wDAFT2)(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT0cMTi5idQQySp3fxtziEN9vK-xdB6p6-bFO30d8n1INi9ejml)(http://www.el-nacional.com/sociedad/Vladimir-Putin_NACIMA20151118_0087_19.jpg)(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRCD6Eh7fDWtu6cyYGOX5wMS_6bUBeSFqN8Dd7t-B78gpdWQtlU)(http://leftfootforward.org/images/2014/05/Nigel-Farage-mad-eyesj.jpg)(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRLT0vBhL3VtrFb7wHglnkFR3uTEUGH6K77PbtFeMaIAWtfvMEg)(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRxp7qLxzeoeSRTBZ65XB_oe_T2orSP2xkxi8LA5P5ORTLxoTCwlQ)(http://epn.tv/wp-post-thumbnail/2013/08/e6StX8.jpg)(https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ4r8XC4PVny1-mgF_e7B0NX-iKd6colVnBdjqW5UIoquRNUmVi)(http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/incoming/article30305795.ece/ALTERNATES/h342/POLL%20Main%2001_5.jpg)
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/6a1120eb6c2ede5abcab2984b525cc4e752f5f98/1253_98_2170_1302/master/2170.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=c2d1c541c0863d2cde47da0abcd3fc4a)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 16, 2016, 09:09:15 pm
Here is the upcoming future PM and P's, how the hell do they manage to look so WIERD? Why do Trump often look like a toad?Surely they are not
slightly sociopathic?:
(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/07/18/01/0CF6E7E400000514-3165988-Favourite_Boris_Johnson_had_until_recently_been_seen_as_a_favour-a-29_1437178865029.jpg)(https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTPBhRtaM_iVet4fcQeK9PGVsyMnfoWG-fWxS58XSUs7-wDAFT2)(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT0cMTi5idQQySp3fxtziEN9vK-xdB6p6-bFO30d8n1INi9ejml)(http://www.el-nacional.com/sociedad/Vladimir-Putin_NACIMA20151118_0087_19.jpg)(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRCD6Eh7fDWtu6cyYGOX5wMS_6bUBeSFqN8Dd7t-B78gpdWQtlU)(http://leftfootforward.org/images/2014/05/Nigel-Farage-mad-eyesj.jpg)(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRLT0vBhL3VtrFb7wHglnkFR3uTEUGH6K77PbtFeMaIAWtfvMEg)(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRxp7qLxzeoeSRTBZ65XB_oe_T2orSP2xkxi8LA5P5ORTLxoTCwlQ)(http://epn.tv/wp-post-thumbnail/2013/08/e6StX8.jpg)(https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ4r8XC4PVny1-mgF_e7B0NX-iKd6colVnBdjqW5UIoquRNUmVi)(http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/incoming/article30305795.ece/ALTERNATES/h342/POLL%20Main%2001_5.jpg)
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/6a1120eb6c2ede5abcab2984b525cc4e752f5f98/1253_98_2170_1302/master/2170.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=c2d1c541c0863d2cde47da0abcd3fc4a)

The Swedish version of critical thinking I presume.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 16, 2016, 09:17:17 pm
Really? :o  and american critical thinking is to actually vote for Trump?

Former Swedish PM giant toddler egg shaped head:
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTiA-hfKRzkRPWgykT5tqsnNRRNPbwp6S2ZWu5aAVHPJc8lb5tr)
(https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT6b8QgVEW1Be_xVTgRMCX9K6En2cVaJSYrVcozfJsZBwf5ZbLxxA)

Today's PM very similar a certain fish:
(http://gfx.bloggar.aftonbladet-cdn.se/wp-content/blogs.dir/428/files/2015/04/stefan7.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 16, 2016, 09:27:26 pm
And equalizing (or trying to) so many varied countries with radically different social, political, economic and financial structures is never going to work well.  Some will always be coming out ahead and some falling behind.  Countries ought to be competing with each other for the best immigrants, for business, for the best educators and workers and to deliver the most productive and efficient framework of laws to their citizens.
That won't work in today's global economy. I see you are from the US. For a moment imagine each state will have it's own language, currency and radically different regulations. How easy would it be to trade between those states and how competitive would each state be compared to China or India?
Europe used to be that patchwork of countries, languages and currencies about 2 to 3 decades ago. Sometimes you need to team up to keep up with the competition.

Instead, the US has the Commerce Clause which allows the Feds to impose their rules on the States in the name of Commerce.  Even when there is no apparent commerce component to the law.  Everything affects interstate commerce and that's how it is.

At various times in our history, it has been illegal for individuals to grow food for personal consumption because it affects farm prices, hence Interstate Commerce.  Growers wouldn't be buyers...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 16, 2016, 09:30:53 pm
The news that Jo Cox MP has been murdered

Jo Cox's first speech in parliament was about the benefits of immigration and integration.

I'm not surprised someone finally snapped, Labour has been talking down to the working class for a decade.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 16, 2016, 09:38:47 pm
Relly? :o  and american critical thinking is to actually vote for Trump?

He is a far better choice than the alternative.  First of all, he's a proven disrupter.  The status quo won't survive.  That's not entirely a bad thing.  Many foreign leaders have already made their opinions known so we know where to cut off funding.  I don't think we'll be hanging around in the Middle East and, with luck and planning, maybe we'll be out of eastern Europe before the fireworks start.

There will probably be some other disruptions in foreign relations and I'm all for that!

The alternative brings with her a pending storm.  Little Chelsea wants to be President just like her mommy and daddy.  We really don't do dynasties around here and getting this stopped in its tracks is a good idea.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 16, 2016, 09:44:48 pm
Really? :o  and american critical thinking is to actually vote for Trump?

There are several reasons why a rationale American citizen would prefer Trump over Hillary but this belong to a different topic.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 16, 2016, 09:47:31 pm
The news that Jo Cox MP has been murdered

Jo Cox's first speech in parliament was about the benefits of immigration and integration.

I'm not surprised someone finally snapped, Labour has been talking down to the working class for a decade.

So she had been specifically targeted in Britain First and similar publications then?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 16, 2016, 09:54:52 pm
Relly? :o  and american critical thinking is to actually vote for Trump?
He is a far better choice than the alternative.  First of all, he's a proven disrupter.  The status quo won't survive.  That's not entirely a bad thing.  Many foreign leaders have already made their opinions known so we know where to cut off funding.
I don't think so. When Trump becomes president he'll be like a spoiled kid in kindergarten throwing around mud. Nobody will be interested in what he says or does! Remember many laws and actions will need political support in the senate. Look at other activistic (usually right-wing) politicians who get elected. They achieve nothing because they are egocentric and have no clue about how the political system works. If Trump thinks he can run a country like his company he is in for a very nasty surprise.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 16, 2016, 10:08:45 pm
Really? :o  and american critical thinking is to actually vote for Trump?
...
...

I am sure some critical thinkers may not vote for him, but I am also sure that anyone who thinks at all would certainly be considering what Trump is offering with interest.  Trump is promoting self-preservation verses the self-destruction we have been experiencing for the past few years.  I have been in the USofA for 40 years now, I have not seen our country is such sad shape today - Carter years included.

One may argue with Trump's methods, but self-preservation is only ingored by non-thinkers.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 16, 2016, 10:16:12 pm
Vote against Clinton is easy: look at what votting 50 years for career politians have done for the average person.

Unfortunately, voting for Trump isn't as easy.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 16, 2016, 10:20:34 pm
So she had been specifically targeted in Britain First and similar publications then?

I've no idea, Britain First isn't exactly Combat 18, and most Right wing groups have enough sense to avoid trouble simply because of how the Right wing is treated in the UK.

Look at any immigration protest and you'll find a Right wing group being kettled by the Police while UAF thugs are free to throw bricks, this then gets reported as a Right wing riot  :-//
The media has two faces on this, you can't use the word "muslim" in a Daily Mail comment because they censor all the words that relate to the issue. They pretend to have a sympathetic agenda, but all they actually publish are click bait articles designed to manipulate their readers into thinking they are on the same side.

It is a sign of the break down of Democracy, immigration has been the number one concern for years, yet both parties bizarrely continue to present this as some kind of financial issue.

The same thing happened in Germany when Reker was stabbed. Just stop for a second and think about this, politicians are being physically attacked simply because they'd rather push their own agenda than listen to the working class. That's how big the gap is between what people think and what the media is telling them to think.
Hence Brexit, nobody has a clue about the financial implications, this is all just a knee jerk reaction to Merkel losing the plot and destroying Germany.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 16, 2016, 10:30:01 pm
One may argue with Trump's methods, but self-preservation is only ingored by non-thinkers.

Self preservation, pragmatism before ideology, avoiding identity politics, facing reality as is without a dense smoke screen of political correctness, and avoiding a blind adherence to the status quo.

The last two presidents here were no good.  From the wars in the middle east (over estimating benefit/cost), the rise of ISIS ('a JV team') doubling our national debt (each on his own), restricting the healthcare insurance market (try to change carrier mid year), more people on food stamps, decline in good jobs, terror attacks, and rampant illegal immigration.

A rational American has many reasons not voting for more-of-the-same.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 16, 2016, 11:16:17 pm
...
...
The media has two faces on this, you can't use the word "muslim" in a Daily Mail comment because they censor all the words that relate to the issue. They pretend to have a sympathetic agenda, but all they actually publish are click bait articles designed to manipulate their readers into thinking they are on the same side.
...
...
Hence Brexit, nobody has a clue about the financial implications, this is all just a knee jerk reaction to Merkel losing the plot and destroying Germany.

And now the funniest part.  Those protesting in the UK against Muslim immigration (or Trump people in the USA), they are called NAZIS and Fascists by the Press.

But, a brief review of NAZI history will show that the largest group of non-Aryans in the SS were the Muslims (13th Walfen SS division and 21st Walfen SS division).  Some were granted Honorary Aryan status.   Grand Mufti of Jerusalem Amin al-Husseini recruited many more for the SS, so many that even Hitler met personally with Amin al-Husseini.

They being the Press, I know they can write but I am not at all sure they can read if they missed such significant historical fact.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 17, 2016, 12:05:52 am
That won't work in today's global economy. I see you are from the US. For a moment imagine each state will have it's own language, currency and radically different regulations. How easy would it be to trade between those states and how competitive would each state be compared to China or India?
Europe used to be that patchwork of countries, languages and currencies about 2 to 3 decades ago. Sometimes you need to team up to keep up with the competition.

But it does work.  China does huge quantities of business with Britain and the rest of the EU and they have radically different laws, timezones, languages, cultures and social/economic structures.  And there is no common EU language, so being part of the EU doesn't do anything about the language differences.  Not everyone in the EU uses the same currency, but currency differences are just about a non-issue these days.  I can change the currency on sites like eBay to whatever I want, and I can buy product in any country with members selling on the site.  I am totally abstracted from the mechanisms of currency trading on the back end. 

Most of the EU countries are economically and socially relatively similar - well, compared to somewhere like Chile or Malaysia or Nigeria anyway.  The commonality of laws offers little benefit, and I would argue (strongly) that whatever value is gained is more than lost when the technocrats come up with stupid bullshit like RoHS.

Trade agreements and currency/legal unions are different and unrelated things.  There's no need to harmonize laws just to engage in trade.  And, while I am sure it's an unpopular view among the most lefty of readers, countries ought to be acting in the best interests of their citizens, not in the best interests of society around the world.  If Britain is giving more than it's getting, they do their citizens a disservice by staying in.  And if Britain has more "power" (economically, socially, financially) than someone else, they should be leveraging that to get the best deal possible for British people. 

I would say the EU has done a pretty piss-poor job of handling the small number of crises that have been dealt it so far - and it hasn't really solved much of anything.  I don't think there's any evidence that the member countries would be worse off if they'd stayed separate.  It's all going to end in tears, as my mom used to say.  Unions like the EU will never last because it's trying to meld things which are just too different.

It should just be a trade union and nothing more.  That's all it needs to be. 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 17, 2016, 01:34:54 am
If we get a Sunni muslim majority in western Europe I think they'll be able to get together in one nation without too many problems.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 17, 2016, 09:47:59 am
My biggest problem with this kind of polls (and we had the same problems here in holland with the oekrain poll) is that people are mis- or mal- informed.
I am not saying that you should stay or leave but if you make a decision at least you would like to know all the facts before you make such a decision.
Well yesterdays newspaper states that there is a huge misconception on what people in the UK think and the reality.
Translation:
Misconceptions of the british population about the EU
Left column: What the british think                                 Right colum: reality

   Percentage of EU immigrants dat are part of the british population
              15%                                                                        5%

  Percentage of the britisch childsupport being paid to children in the EU
                8%                                                                      0,3%

  Percentage of the budget spent on the EU civil service (bureaucracy if you like)
               27%                                                                     6%

  Participation (share) of the EU in the total investments in Great Brittain
               30%                                                                     48%

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 17, 2016, 10:23:36 am
Misconceptions of the british population about the EU
Left column: What the british think                                 Right colum: reality

   Percentage of EU immigrants dat are part of the british population
              15%                                                                        5%

  Percentage of the britisch childsupport being paid to children in the EU
                8%                                                                      0,3%

  Percentage of the budget spent on the EU civil service (bureaucracy if you like)
               27%                                                                     6%

  Participation (share) of the EU in the total investments in Great Brittain
               30%                                                                     48%
This is, of course, the problem - there is always a gulf between reality and perception and there are always fears which politicians can use for leverage. If you are white and of a certain background and political leaning living in one of our larger cities you are much more likely to perceive that it is "invaded by foreigners" than welcome the fact of living in a vibrant multi-ethnic society. You are also likely to assume everyone that you see with a dark face is an immigrant whereas the reality most will have been born here, to parents who were born here.

I don't normally give Polly Toynbee much time but I think that she hit the right note in this article The mood is is ugly, and an MP is dead (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/16/mood-ugly-mp-dead-jo-cox). The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 17, 2016, 11:06:43 am
I don't normally give Polly Toynbee much time but I think that she hit the right note in this article The mood is is ugly, and an MP is dead (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/16/mood-ugly-mp-dead-jo-cox). The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

I'll give her time - but I don't always agree with her. In this case we both think she is right :(

This whole febrile atmosphere was also descibed as Britain is in the midst of a working-class revolt  (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/britain-working-class-revolt-eu-referendum) . Something similar is happening in the US.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 17, 2016, 11:35:29 am
I don't normally give Polly Toynbee much time but I think that she hit the right note in this article The mood is is ugly, and an MP is dead (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/16/mood-ugly-mp-dead-jo-cox). The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

I'll give her time - but I don't always agree with her. In this case we both think she is right :(

This whole febrile atmosphere was also descibed as Britain is in the midst of a working-class revolt  (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/17/britain-working-class-revolt-eu-referendum) . Something similar is happening in the US.

The sad thing is they seem to want to 'revolt' against every poor mug (preferably smaller than them) except the big corporation bosses who put them where they are and invited the immigrants.  And they obediently support the bosses' demands to weaken trade unions.  It's a strange world!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 17, 2016, 12:14:07 pm
Enough with the migration.

This is what it should be about.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FOfficialSpectator%2Fvideos%2F133%E2%80%8B3330490029884%2F&show_text=0&width=560 (https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FOfficialSpectator%2Fvideos%2F133%E2%80%8B3330490029884%2F&show_text=0&width=560)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 01:42:13 pm
The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

Errrr, and what race card would that be exactly? From where I'm sitting, remain supporters have been repeatedly accusing a very large proportion of the electorate of being racist just because they have a different opinion to them on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. It cheapens what racism is, and degrades the gravity of instances of real racism. Accusing someone you don't agree with by calling them a racist is like using the old loaded question "when did you stop beating your wife?", it's a lazy way to shut people up because you don't want to enter into reasoned debate.

Just to be clear, there is a very big difference between saying I'd rather not be in the EU and being a racist.

Edit: I agree yesterday's Farage poster is unacceptable, but he is not the Leave campaign on his own. I can also come up with plenty of other nonsense on both sides too.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 17, 2016, 01:54:47 pm
Quote
what race card would that be exactly?

It is racist to enforce the laws of the nation;
It is racist to hold elected officials to the laws of the nation;
It is racist to want to treat everyone equally;
It is racist to want to just everyone on their own characters.
...

If MLK were a live today and said what he said about having  a dream, he would be labeled a racist too:

"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character."

We are a deeply racist country not because of the people but because of the policies our politicians have put in place that explicitly and forcibly judge each of us on the color of our skins, or our body parts for that matter.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 17, 2016, 02:14:36 pm
The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

Errrr, and what race card would that be exactly
Farrage's poster was completely unacceptable, I'm glad you agree.

Playing on fears of mass immigration then, but claiming that we are going to be overrun by unskilled migrants (with particular emphasis on countries like Turkey) who only want to come here to live on benefits is a racist argument.

Claims based around Brits pushed out of houses, schools, the NHS etc are all fundamentally playing to a racist sympathy.

Not to mention Boris's comments re Obama as a method of undermining his message.





Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 17, 2016, 02:17:50 pm
Quote
what race card would that be exactly?

It is racist to enforce the laws of the nation;
It is racist to hold elected officials to the laws of the nation;
It is racist to want to treat everyone equally;
It is racist to want to just everyone on their own characters.
...

If MLK were a live today and said what he said about having  a dream, he would be labeled a racist too:

"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character."

We are a deeply racist country not because of the people but because of the policies our politicians have put in place that explicitly and forcibly judge each of us on the color of our skins, or our body parts for that matter.

And as usually it boils down to a population actually voting in these politicians, please put your self in front  of a mirror, watch your personal fascism, arrogance, ignorance and all other narcissistic characters you consist of, now try to improve your self, it wont be easy but as a start dont vote for the Mussolini impersonator toad, the communist or the dynasty! Use rime and reason and rational critical thinking that exclude said "characters".
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 17, 2016, 02:25:06 pm
The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

Errrr, and what race card would that be exactly? From where I'm sitting, remain supporters have been repeatedly accusing a very large proportion of the electorate of being racist just because they have a different opinion to them on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. It cheapens what racism is, and degrades the gravity of instances of real racism. Accusing someone you don't agree with by calling them a racist is like using the old loaded question "when did you stop beating your wife?", it's a lazy way to shut people up because you don't want to enter into reasoned debate.

Just to be clear, there is a very big difference between saying I'd rather not be in the EU and being a racist.

Edit: I agree yesterday's Farage poster is unacceptable, but he is not the Leave campaign on his own. I can also come up with plenty of other nonsense on both sides too.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/suspected-killer-of-british-lawmaker-jo-cox-ties-neo-nazi-ties-group-says/2016/06/17/2067ea0a-33ef-11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/suspected-killer-of-british-lawmaker-jo-cox-ties-neo-nazi-ties-group-says/2016/06/17/2067ea0a-33ef-11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html)

The swedish hope-that-Britton leaves party has it roots in Natzi culture!

As far as im concerned  fascism , communism, natzism is all the same brown brain shit, same smell just slightly different color!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 02:29:00 pm
The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

Errrr, and what race card would that be exactly? From where I'm sitting, remain supporters have been repeatedly accusing a very large proportion of the electorate of being racist just because they have a different opinion to them on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. It cheapens what racism is, and degrades the gravity of instances of real racism. Accusing someone you don't agree with by calling them a racist is like using the old loaded question "when did you stop beating your wife?", it's a lazy way to shut people up because you don't want to enter into reasoned debate.

Just to be clear, there is a very big difference between saying I'd rather not be in the EU and being a racist.

Edit: I agree yesterday's Farage poster is unacceptable, but he is not the Leave campaign on his own. I can also come up with plenty of other nonsense on both sides too.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/suspected-killer-of-british-lawmaker-jo-cox-ties-neo-nazi-ties-group-says/2016/06/17/2067ea0a-33ef-11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/suspected-killer-of-british-lawmaker-jo-cox-ties-neo-nazi-ties-group-says/2016/06/17/2067ea0a-33ef-11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html)

The swedish hope-that-Britton leaves party has it roots in Natzi culture!

As far as im concerned  fascism , communism, natzism is all the same brown brain shit, same smell just slightly different color!

The perp had known mental problems. It is exceptionally lazy and unhelpful to assume that all those who vote in a certain way in this referendum share the same deranged ideology.

In addition, there is as yet no official connection drawn between the acts of this nutter and the Brexit campaigns, and much as it is easy to draw conclusions from hearsay, I suggest that it should be treated as that.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 17, 2016, 02:50:07 pm


The perp had known mental problems. It is exceptionally lazy and unhelpful to assume that all those who vote in a certain way in this referendum share the same deranged ideology.

In addition, there is as yet no official connection drawn between the acts of this nutter and the Brexit campaigns, and much as it is easy to draw conclusions from hearsay, I suggest that it should be treated as that.

Washington post is a well respected paper, a US of A paper mind you! Try to fade him away as a  basic UK nutter is extremely lame!
Believe in media ,Believe in Trump vote for Trump and Putin it will benefit UK, the pound will drop Putins oligarchs will buy UK proprieties
and migrate bringing all the looted and washed money along! Be happy! Hail the toad!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 17, 2016, 03:04:27 pm
We really don't do dynasties around here and getting this stopped in its tracks is a good idea.

Actually you do - far more than Europe.

Start with Bush Snr, then Jnr, and then Jeb tried to make it number 3.

Continue with the Kennedys; Jack/John was number 1, and Robert would probably have been number 2 if he hadn't been murdered.

Were there any earlier ones?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jaxbird on June 17, 2016, 03:05:22 pm
EU was a mistake, originally sold as promoting growth and making trade withing Europe easier and cheaper.

Today EU is basically some expensive marxist experiment trying to gain control of all member countries/states with a leadership of people never elected by anyone in the contributing countries.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 03:18:15 pm
The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

Errrr, and what race card would that be exactly
Farrage's poster was completely unacceptable, I'm glad you agree.

Playing on fears of mass immigration then, but claiming that we are going to be overrun by unskilled migrants (with particular emphasis on countries like Turkey) who only want to come here to live on benefits is a racist argument.

No, that is a concern of immigration. Concern about immigration != racism.

The emphasis on Turkey is that (a) Cameron (for Remain) told the electorate not to worry their pretty heads about it and (b) while they concurrently suggested secretly that actually it might be alright to "send a nice message" to Turkey in the form of a degree of relaxation to the immigration from that country prior to acceptance to the EU.

Quote
Claims based around Brits pushed out of houses, schools, the NHS etc are all fundamentally playing to a racist sympathy.

Even the Remain camp are stating that house prices will ease as a result of a Brexit. To many people that would be welcome, certainly where I live, where you need to be earning £150k+ just to buy a £500,000 studio apartment. There is nothing racist in that.

There is nothing racist in stating that schools are under pressure from children where English is not their first language.

There is nothing racist in stating that the NHS is under pressure from health tourism because the NHS is so freely available to all.

All of those three things you mention are only perceived to be racist because individuals choose to manipulate it to be so for their own agenda. It is not racist to point out that these things happen.

What are we to do? Just not mention anything at all in case someone from the PC brigade might call you a racist?

Again, please consider that branding everything you don't like as simply racist isn't just cheap, it really dilutes the real racist issues that exist in society.

Quote

Not to mention Boris's comments re Obama as a method of undermining his message.

The Boris's Obama quote was just silly and cringeworthy, he should've know better in his position.

To me EU immigration isn't even in my decision. Fundamentally I am fine with the single market and the freedom of movement (at least I was when the Union was comprised of reasonably compatible states in terms of GDP). What I am not fine about is the expansion of the EU into incompatible economies, increased fiscal parity, completely open borders, and combined defence. All of those things are already happening and they are stated aims of the EU as a whole, and the EU is not going to change without a bombshell. You either accept that the EU will continue that steamroller that you have no way of stopping, or you get out, and make that bombshell.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 17, 2016, 03:18:56 pm
"Today EU is basically some expensive marxist experiment trying to gain control of all member countries/states ..."

Agreed. Had it stayed on its original mission of driving economic growth, rather than straying onto a pan-european political super government, it would have been so much more helpful.

I think people are under estimating the risk of a brexit here. If that does materialize, the Cameron government iss likeely to be thrown out as well. With the rise of the right wing popularnist governments across Europe, the swing can go to the other extreme and may produce another Hitler.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 17, 2016, 03:35:18 pm
Washington post is a well respected paper, a US of A paper mind you!

Not anymore. It's now owned by Bezos and serves his political agenda.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jaxbird on June 17, 2016, 03:36:23 pm
Agreed. Had it stayed on its original mission of driving economic growth, rather than straying onto a pan-european political super government, it would have been so much more helpful.

I think people are under estimating the risk of a brexit here. If that does materialize, the Cameron government iss likeely to be thrown out as well. With the rise of the right wing popularnist governments across Europe, the swing can go to the other extreme and may produce another Hitler.

Yeah, that was what everyone voting for EU were originally told the vote to join was all about, it would be purely to remove trade barriers and exchange rates within Europe. No problems there.

I hope Brexit does happen and causes a domino effect, with more and more counties deciding to leave. But most of EU's political elites are doing their best to prevent anyone from having the opportunity to vote whether they want EU or not.



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 17, 2016, 03:40:41 pm
I hope for a brexit as well. It iss good for the Brits and all Europeans in thee long run.

Some short term pains for sure
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Gyro on June 17, 2016, 03:52:48 pm
Damn, less than a week to go and after watching everything and following this thread, my biggest voting influence still seems to come down to worry about what might happen if we leave and it all switches to sh*t (the stay campaign strategy is obviously effective) :palm:

Anxiety doesn't seem like a good basis for a rational decision.

This international discussion is still the nearest thing to a good natured balanced argument I've see so far though  :-+

Sorry, carry on...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2016, 04:04:42 pm
Damn, less than a week to go and after watching everything and following this thread, my biggest voting influence still seems to come down to worry about what might happen if we leave and it all switches to sh*t (the stay campaign strategy is obviously effective) :palm:
I think it is safe to say nobody (else) will die whether the UK stays in the EU or not. Besides that I'm pretty sure the EU got the message whether the UK stays in the EU or not so mission accomplished. The Netherlands will be sad to see the UK go though because the NL and the UK both have similar wishes for how the EU should be organised.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: gnavigator1007 on June 17, 2016, 04:17:21 pm
I think it is safe to say nobody (else) will die whether the UK stays in the EU or not.
Alright!  Best news ever.  And here we were worrying what to do with tools/toys lol
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 17, 2016, 04:31:40 pm
Rule of thumb for this topic: ignore anybody that chooses not to display a flag by their moniker.

Hardly foolproof, but it weeds out those those that don't have the courage(?) to indicate how involved/committed they are to the subject.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: daqq on June 17, 2016, 04:40:25 pm
Quote
Claims based around Brits pushed out of houses, schools, the NHS etc are all fundamentally playing to a racist sympathy.
Are said claims false? Unsubstantiated?

edit: It's an honest question, I'm not in GB, as such all I have is hearsay and rumor.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 17, 2016, 04:48:36 pm
Facts, particularly unhelpful facts, don't matter.

They are not helpful to a particular narrative some people are selling so those facts are wrong.

Forr examples, I live in a 3rd world country where a non union workers is defined by law as a union worker, a majority iss defined by law as minority, two colored minorities are defined as whites,  men can be defined as women and vice versa......

Welcome to politics.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 17, 2016, 04:55:02 pm
We've had a housing shortage for years.

Large numbers of extra people coming into the country - a medium sized city's worth every year for the past decade by official figures - really isn't helping and is continuing to push property prices and rents up.

This has been acknowledged by the remain camp when they said that property prices would fall if we voted to leave.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FrankD on June 17, 2016, 04:59:25 pm
Quote
Claims based around Brits pushed out of houses, schools, the NHS etc are all fundamentally playing to a racist sympathy.
Are said claims false? Unsubstantiated?

edit: It's an honest question, I'm not in GB, as such all I have is hearsay and rumor.

Untrue and unsubstantiated. GB hardly had to deal with refugies yet. But if they have to by a non brexit I'm sure that their 19th century invention of the 'concentration camp' will come in handy.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2016, 05:00:04 pm
Quote
Claims based around Brits pushed out of houses, schools, the NHS etc are all fundamentally playing to a racist sympathy.
Are said claims false? Unsubstantiated?
edit: It's an honest question, I'm not in GB, as such all I have is hearsay and rumor.
You can make statistics say anything you want. Fun fact: over a third of the Surinamese people live in the Netherlands (Suriname is a country in the north of South America). That sounds like a lot until you know there are less than a million Surinamese people in total.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 05:23:31 pm
Quote
Claims based around Brits pushed out of houses, schools, the NHS etc are all fundamentally playing to a racist sympathy.
Are said claims false? Unsubstantiated?

edit: It's an honest question, I'm not in GB, as such all I have is hearsay and rumor.

In social housing there is evidence that suggests that immigrants get ahead of local people, but that is as much because of their circumstances as anything else, in that immigrants are more likely to bring up larger families than the indigenous, and those larger families tend to be from non-EU immigrants. A lot of the scare stories are anecdotal though.

This, along with general housing stock isn't an EU immigration thing though, it's more down to the massive foreign speculative investment of the top 0.1% than it is to do with the EU. Leaving the EU won't do much to help the lack of housing, although it will cool the already hugely overheated general housing market.

Schools, particularly in some ethnic hot spots suffer from non English speakers, although again this isn't so much an EU related problem, it tends to be much more to do with the "ghettoisation" (sorry, couldn't think of a better word) of some communities. While EU immigrants tend to make their way throughout the country, and generally integrate well, the same isn't the case for some communities not from the EU, although I am generalising here.

Regarding the NHS, well from my own experience there is a lot of advantage taken of it, but again this is not so much the EU, it is predominantly non-EU immigrants where their healthcare systems, by their own admission, aren't a patch on the NHS. I am aware of neighbours who bring their relatives into the UK for extended periods (think: 6 to 12 months) so they can have free health care. I also worked with a guy who did a similar thing, I made my views very clear on that one. By their very nature, these longer term illnesses tend to be very expensive, it's not like a broken leg or a couple of stitches. I honestly don't think the NHS has any clue how much is drained from their coffers, and our taxes, by health tourism, although they seem to think it's peanuts. My evidence, if extrapolated, suggests it's a lot more.

So that is one reason why the immigration thing doesn't really have any sway in my decision, because the problems and costs are not, in my experiences, generally from EU immigrants.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 17, 2016, 05:29:14 pm
..., my biggest voting influence still seems to come down to worry about what might happen if we leave a...

I don't think it's wrong. Assessing what may happen as an effect of your decision is a valid data point - posititve and negative (side)effects.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 05:34:51 pm
Quote
Claims based around Brits pushed out of houses, schools, the NHS etc are all fundamentally playing to a racist sympathy.
Are said claims false? Unsubstantiated?

edit: It's an honest question, I'm not in GB, as such all I have is hearsay and rumor.

Untrue and unsubstantiated. GB hardly had to deal with refugies yet. But if they have to by a non brexit I'm sure that their 19th century invention of the 'concentration camp' will come in handy.

I don't think that's an informed response in my experience. I'll tell you what, I'll take you to the East End, that might open your eyes. Take a look in the schools in Bethnal Green and Wapping, the council estates in Stepney, the wards in the Royal London Hospital in Whitechapel (or any other London hospital). Then you might have a very different view. But this is mostly not due to EU immigration.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: XynxNet on June 17, 2016, 06:12:07 pm
What's the problem with Brexit?

If the british majority doesn't share the goals an values of the eu any longer, brexit is a good thing.
No hard feelings required. It is good thing, that voting about such matters is possible.

As with every democratic decision one hopes that the voter makes an informed vote.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 17, 2016, 06:14:02 pm
Misconceptions of the british population about the EU
Left column: What the british think                                 Right colum: reality

   Percentage of EU immigrants dat are part of the british population
              15%                                                                        5%

  Percentage of the britisch childsupport being paid to children in the EU
                8%                                                                      0,3%

  Percentage of the budget spent on the EU civil service (bureaucracy if you like)
               27%                                                                     6%

  Participation (share) of the EU in the total investments in Great Brittain
               30%                                                                     48%
This is, of course, the problem - there is always a gulf between reality and perception and there are always fears which politicians can use for leverage. If you are white and of a certain background and political leaning living in one of our larger cities you are much more likely to perceive that it is "invaded by foreigners" than welcome the fact of living in a vibrant multi-ethnic society. You are also likely to assume everyone that you see with a dark face is an immigrant whereas the reality most will have been born here, to parents who were born here.

I don't normally give Polly Toynbee much time but I think that she hit the right note in this article The mood is is ugly, and an MP is dead (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/16/mood-ugly-mp-dead-jo-cox). The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

In your "Participation (share) of the EU in the total investments in Great Brittain" numbers, that does not necessarily relates to immigration.  Foreign Investment and immigration are very different.

Case and point: In 1980's to early 2000's, VW was fairly large in China and for a number of years VW was the number one car manufacturer in China.  China had a huge German investment yet China hardly had any German immigrants.  Flow of money and flow of people does not necessarily relate to each other.

For "childsupport being paid to children in the EU", a 0.3% number, if it is indeed that low, saids the UK government is not doing its job.  In a sane world, social services and related costs due to immigration should be zero.  The host country should choose immigrant that benefits the nation and the citizens rather than costs the nation.  Otherwise, it is robbing its own citizen to benefit others.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FrankD on June 17, 2016, 06:23:05 pm
That's why I said refugees.

It's the same over here. The larger cities have a far higher non ethnic population than the more rural areas of the country.
And over half of them is due to our colonial heritage. (Not a history to be proud of.)

It's the people in the rural area's are the ones that react in ways that would have made them collaborators in the last world war.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 17, 2016, 07:20:16 pm
In your "Participation (share) of the EU in the total investments in Great Brittain" numbers, that does not necessarily relates to immigration.  Foreign Investment and immigration are very different.
I never said it had anything to do with immigration, it just simply states the newspaper facts that in general , british people have wrong numbers in their heads and don't have the correct figures, so their judgment is biased to begin with.
If they want to leave fine with me, I am not stopping you but shouldn't everyone have the right figures and the correct facts to make a good decision ?

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 17, 2016, 07:25:15 pm
Quote
In your "Participation (share) of the EU in the total investments in Great Brittain" numbers, that does not necessarily relates to immigration.  Foreign Investment and immigration are very different.

I had a long conversation with someone yesterday on this very topic. He's sense is that the european (continent) investments in London (we were talking mostly about the financial services industry) is due to what the city has to offer, not because UK/London being part of the EU. As such, he believes that the investments will likely continue, without substantial declines as others have suggested.

I tend to agree with that assessment.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 17, 2016, 07:32:02 pm
It's the people in the rural area's are the ones that react in ways that would have made them collaborators in the last world war.
Pfffff so tired of ww2 brought up over and over again and then in ways that are so stupid and easy to contradict.
Collaborators were everywhere in ww2, actually it was everyone that did nothing, doing nothing is also collaborating and you can not blame them after the events in may 40 and following actions the germans took if someone resisted.
The resistance were a few hundred people and after the war it was suddenly a few thousands of people, you go figure.

Back to the item you brought up, I saw a lot of little rural communities helping and supporting more immigrants than in the big cities, and the facts are that the succes ratio for support and integration are higher when immigrants are accepted in small communities instead of being "faceless anonymous humans" in the big city. The problems started when the political peanutbrains wanted to put large centres in small communities. Everyone with a small brain in their heads understand that it is not wise to put 1500 immigrants in a village of 1000 people. Next problem is that the schools did not receive the proper funding to help integrate the immigrant children in their classes. There were examples that 20 immigrant children joined a class of 15 exisiting children, what are they thinking? Lets be real, the EU was never prepared for this invasion and everyone did their best but it should have been contained from day one. Noone knew what to do and I still don't see a correct solution. The biggest problem I see are not the real war immigrants, we are obliged to help them just as we want to be helped if we ever came in such a situation. Besides most want to go back anyway when there is peace, if there is ever going to be peace that is. But the economic immigrants, mostly young men, fortuneseekers, they should be brought back day 2 after identification, but their country does not want to co-operate so they can not be sent back. I can not believe that and they are the real problem for the EU, IMO.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 17, 2016, 07:32:52 pm
And over half of them is due to our colonial heritage. (Not a history to be proud of.)

It's a mixed bag, in the latter stages of colonization I think you could argue it ended up being highly beneficial and in many cases ended too abruptly.

For instance, I wish we had not allowed ourselves to be bribed into abandoning Maluku. It should have been a separate country.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 17, 2016, 07:35:13 pm
I had a long conversation with someone yesterday on this very topic. He's sense is that the european (continent) investments in London (we were talking mostly about the financial services industry) is due to what the city has to offer, not because UK/London being part of the EU. As such, he believes that the investments will likely continue, without substantial declines as others have suggested.
I tend to agree with that assessment.
Interesting, the stockmarkets do not agree and the banks are preparing for a move probably towards Luxembourg or some other financial paradise inside the EU, at least that is the news we are hearing.
It is not as much the EU or britisch/scottisch banks ofcourse but the big international banks that want to be in the EU for their business that are moving. We'll see what happens, again who knows really? :-//
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 17, 2016, 07:45:00 pm
Yes, the banks are preparing for contingency plans. and I think you should expect, over a long period of time (3 - 5 years), as the UK government negotiates with the EU for market accesses, additional barriers will come up.

It is pre-mature to claim whether the UK (or the continent) will be worse off because of that. A much harder question that many people are trying to find out is if there exists sectors or locales that are to benefit from brexit.

The whole thing is quite interesting from a macro-investing perspective, as the range and severity of outcome are extreme and unprecedented.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 17, 2016, 07:48:36 pm
Yesterday on the news a UK farmer that wanted to leave the EU although she receives directly 45k GBP a year subsidy from the EU.
Still she wants to leave, well that is someone at least that has it hopefully figured out, although I wonder what her prices will look like in a year.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 07:53:28 pm
I had a long conversation with someone yesterday on this very topic. He's sense is that the european (continent) investments in London (we were talking mostly about the financial services industry) is due to what the city has to offer, not because UK/London being part of the EU. As such, he believes that the investments will likely continue, without substantial declines as others have suggested.
I tend to agree with that assessment.
Interesting, the stockmarkets do not agree and the banks are preparing for a move probably towards Luxembourg or some other financial paradise inside the EU, at least that is the news we are hearing.
It is not as much the EU or britisch/scottisch banks ofcourse but the big international banks that want to be in the EU for their business that are moving. We'll see what happens, again who knows really? :-//

Those were exactly the fears stated two decades ago about the UK's retiscence about the Euro, with the grim reaper taking all the filthy lucre to Frankfurt. There was plenty on uncertainty for a while. Stories of fund managers and hedgies going to Zurich (er, well, the astute will see that that's not in the EU either). Nothing could have been further from the truth, in fact quite the opposite.

Indeed, as you say, who knows really?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 17, 2016, 07:55:13 pm
Stock markets are small potatos.  As for banks. I don't know if even Luxemburg will give them their own little semi-private police force to harass people with, or has a large enough economy to convincingly limit counterparty risk of "too big to fail" entities.

Brexit leaves the UK financial industry with no options remotely as good as the City and the UK were ... you'd almost feel sorry for them.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 08:03:32 pm
Stock markets are small potatos.  As for banks. I don't know if even Luxemburg will give them their own little semi-private police force to harass people with, or has a large enough economy to convincingly limit counterparty risk of "too big to fail" entities.

Brexit leaves the UK financial industry with no options remotely as good as the City and the UK were ... you'd almost feel sorry for them.

Which is why it will largely be business as usual.

The reason for market dips is not on value, it's on uncertainty, and a Brexit certainly brings that, which is why perversely the markets rallied on the deeply regretable and unfortunate death of MP Jo Cox yesterday who was a remain supporter and campaigner, seeing it as a motivator to improve the remain vote.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 17, 2016, 08:28:11 pm
Brexit leaves the UK financial industry with no options remotely as good as the City and the UK were ... you'd almost feel sorry for them.
Is that why Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gave £500,000 each to the remain campaign or were they just being public spirited?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 08:33:01 pm


The perp had known mental problems. It is exceptionally lazy and unhelpful to assume that all those who vote in a certain way in this referendum share the same deranged ideology.

In addition, there is as yet no official connection drawn between the acts of this nutter and the Brexit campaigns, and much as it is easy to draw conclusions from hearsay, I suggest that it should be treated as that.

Washington post is a well respected paper, a US of A paper mind you! Try to fade him away as a  basic UK nutter is extremely lame!

One thing I am sure of is that the UK electorate will deal with a rather more informed and rational view than a foreign journalist making a few dollars from a few column inches, especially bearing in mind the gravity of what just happened.

In fact possibly the worst thing in the view of the Remain faction is foreign opinion trying to dictate a position on national sovereignty, and understandably so, they would only be preaching to the converted, so what's the point? The other side will innevitably see them as biased individuals and if not discount them completely, and positively vote against them. After all, what would you think if you were in the same position?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 17, 2016, 08:34:45 pm
Brexit leaves the UK financial industry with no options remotely as good as the City and the UK were ... you'd almost feel sorry for them.
Is that why Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gave £500,000 each to the remain campaign or were they just being public spirited?

If they really meant that they'd be spending a lot more an that. That's a low ball bonus for one employee.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 17, 2016, 09:00:32 pm
Well it's certainly refreshing to hear all the doom-mongering from our European mainland cousins.

I've been speaking to my European colleagues, one brands anyone who wishes to leave a racist, no matter their reason, declares that it's a personal affront and storms off in a huff.

Another says that there will be a war and when asked who would be the aggressor claims that it will be the British.

I love rational arguments.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 17, 2016, 09:04:21 pm

Even the Remain camp are stating that house prices will ease as a result of a Brexit. To many people that would be welcome, certainly where I live, where you need to be earning £150k+ just to buy a £500,000 studio apartment. There is nothing racist in that.

There is nothing racist in stating that schools are under pressure from children where English is not their first language.

There is nothing racist in stating that the NHS is under pressure from health tourism because the NHS is so freely available to all.

All of those three things you mention are only perceived to be racist because individuals choose to manipulate it to be so for their own agenda. It is not racist to point out that these things happen.
No, straightforward statements of accurate fact are not in themselves racist.

But statements which are selective, sometimes inaccurate, irrelevant or peripheral to the point under dissuasion and made by those with an agenda knowing full well that they will play to the fears of the masses become something else entirely.

Not that either side has exactly distinguished itself in this debate (and I use the term advisedly).
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 17, 2016, 09:05:52 pm
Not that either side has exactly distinguished itself in this debate (and I use the term advisedly).

IMNSHO, it has become a squalid, disgraceful mass debate.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 17, 2016, 09:19:13 pm
it has become a squalid, disgraceful mass debate.
I have a feeling that politics had already become that, the public scrutiny just exposed it to the masses.
It would be good to hope for a more tolerant future... Sadly I think it will get worse before it gets better.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 17, 2016, 09:21:06 pm
We really don't do dynasties around here and getting this stopped in its tracks is a good idea.

Actually you do - far more than Europe.

Start with Bush Snr, then Jnr, and then Jeb tried to make it number 3.

Continue with the Kennedys; Jack/John was number 1, and Robert would probably have been number 2 if he hadn't been murdered.

Were there any earlier ones?

John Adams 2d President and John Quincy Adams 6th President (father-son)
Theodore Roosevelt 26th President and Franklin D Roosevelt 32d President (5th cousins)

There may be others but history isn't my interest.

George W Bush wasn't nearly as bright as his father and Jeb, well, Jeb isn't highly regarded either.  I actually thought Jeb would do better than he did.  Either name recognition didn't help or it helped a lot.  It depends on your point of view.  What I wouldn't have wanted to see was Rubio or Cruz as a candidate.


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 17, 2016, 09:35:38 pm
I don't normally give Polly Toynbee much time but I think that she hit the right note in this article The mood is is ugly, and an MP is dead (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/16/mood-ugly-mp-dead-jo-cox). The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

The race card has been played hard, fast and often by both sides.

I've read tons of articles in the press and posts on various forums where the premise is "if you are in favor of Brexit, you're just a racist and hate minorities".

As these issues come close to vote, the voices get louder and as both sides get more desperate, they pile on the drama and accusations and firm their resolve not to listen to or consider any aspect of the opposing viewpoint.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 17, 2016, 10:20:19 pm
Yesterday on the news a UK farmer that wanted to leave the EU although she receives directly 45k GBP a year subsidy from the EU.
Still she wants to leave, well that is someone at least that has it hopefully figured out, although I wonder what her prices will look like in a year.
Because it's not all about the money. Plenty of people want freedom from the EU, even if it means they will be financially worse off.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 17, 2016, 10:53:55 pm
We really don't do dynasties around here and getting this stopped in its tracks is a good idea.

Actually you do - far more than Europe.

Start with Bush Snr, then Jnr, and then Jeb tried to make it number 3.

Continue with the Kennedys; Jack/John was number 1, and Robert would probably have been number 2 if he hadn't been murdered.

Were there any earlier ones?

John Adams 2d President and John Quincy Adams 6th President (father-son)
Theodore Roosevelt 26th President and Franklin D Roosevelt 32d President (5th cousins)

There may be others but history isn't my interest.

George W Bush wasn't nearly as bright as his father and Jeb, well, Jeb isn't highly regarded either.  I actually thought Jeb would do better than he did.  Either name recognition didn't help or it helped a lot.  It depends on your point of view.  What I wouldn't have wanted to see was Rubio or Cruz as a candidate.

I wondered about the Roosevelts, but couldn't be bothered to check.

I think it is clear that transpondians do have more dysenteries (sic) than Europeans, at least in the last century or two.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 18, 2016, 12:20:35 am
Washington post is a well respected paper, a US of A paper mind you!
Not anymore. It's now owned by Bezos and serves his political agenda.
Thats goood, thats gooood,(http://imagesmtv-a.akamaihd.net/uri/mgid:file:http:shared:mtv.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/could-emperor-palpatine-return-for-the-newest-star-wars-1450823704.jpg?quality=0.85&format=jpg&width=480)

Well, pick a EU paper then if that makes you feel better..

Quote
Self preservation, pragmatism before ideology, avoiding identity politics, facing reality as is without
a dense smoke screen of political correctness, and avoiding a blind adherence to the status quo.

Oh yes self preservation and a weird ideology you will get from Trump, have Trump revealed his taxes yet?

Quote
Quote
The last two presidents here were no good.


He is a far better choice than the alternative.  First of all, he's a proven disrupter.  I don't think we'll be hanging around in the Middle East and, with luck and planning, maybe we'll be out of eastern Europe before the fireworks start. There will probably be some other disruptions in foreign relations and I'm all for that!

The alternative brings with her a pending storm.  Little Chelsea wants to be President just like her mommy and daddy. We really don't do dynasties around here and getting this stopped in its tracks is a good idea.
Yes you do dynasties.

Zpata criticized me for my lack of rational critical thinking so what he and some other Americans here are saying is that out of a 318,9 million intellectual "rational critical thinking" population all that they can come up with as presidential candidates is a: communist, a: dynasist and a: lame Mussolini impersonator!?

(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--m83gd-OQ--/1455104314292691783.jpg)

So Nixon was good? What about (picking random),Benjamin Harrison? Ronald Reagan?

Quote
From the wars in the middle east (over estimating benefit/cost), the rise of ISIS ('a JV team') doubling our national debt (each on his own), restricting the healthcare insurance market (try to change carrier mid year), more people on food stamps, decline in good jobs, terror attacks,
and rampant illegal immigration.  A rational American has many reasons not voting for more-of-the-same.

You are asking to much of your 2 party system, with Trump as president you might face a 1 party/person system as Trump would not hesitate to manipulate the constitution to suit his needs well Bush ignored it in parts, just as Putin manipulates his system. Ah i forgot that Trump adores Putin, find's him a reasonable and "strong man", does that mean that the Swedes should stop spy on the Russians on US behalf as they have done for quite many years already? US intelligence are extremely pleased of this "Swedish specialty".. Sweden and Us just recently signed a Statement of Intent, well not much in public but a lot behind the curtains, which gives US access to Swedish airfields in case Putin goes berserk! So with Trump as president is that cancelled?
 
Here is interesting report about Trump and prior presidents willingness to obey congress/constitution, maybe you will find a conspiracy lurking in Time mag as well...

http://time.com/4320105/donald-trump-u-s-constitution/ (http://time.com/4320105/donald-trump-u-s-constitution/)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 18, 2016, 01:13:26 am
You are asking to much of your 2 party system, with Trump as president you might face a 1 party/person system as Trump would not hesitate to manipulate the constitution to suit his needs well Bush ignored it in parts, just as Putin manipulates his system. Ah i forgot that Trump adores Putin, find's him a reasonable and "strong man", does that mean that the Swedes should stop spy on the Russians on US behalf as they have done for quite many years already? US intelligence are extremely pleased of this "Swedish specialty".
Here is interesting report about Trump and prior presidents willingness to obey congress/constitution, maybe you will find a conspiracy lurking in Time mag as well...

http://time.com/4320105/donald-trump-u-s-constitution/ (http://time.com/4320105/donald-trump-u-s-constitution/)
You should consume less propaganda on evenings. You are so concerned about Putin, but most of what you see are scare stories like those about Russian submarine 2 years ago which turned out to be bullshit as your defense minister admitted recently. Guess what was the purpose of searching non existent submarine:
Quote
. Sweden and Us just recently signed a Statement of Intent, well not much in public but a lot behind the curtains, which gives US access to Swedish airfields in case Putin goes berserk! So with Trump as president is that cancelled?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 18, 2016, 04:15:37 am
This is, of course, the problem - there is always a gulf between reality and perception and there are always fears which politicians can use for leverage.

When it comes to any politically fought campaign, reality is completely irrelevant.  Perception is the only thing that matters.

If you can get some reality into the perception, then well and good - but it will have no greater power than straight out lies that are presented well.

Unfortunately.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 18, 2016, 04:40:43 pm

Zpata criticized me for my lack of rational critical thinking so what he and some other Americans here are saying is that out of a 318,9 million intellectual "rational critical thinking" population all that they can come up with as presidential candidates is a: communist, a: dynasist and a: lame Mussolini impersonator!?

No rational person wants the job!  We have a number of outstanding leaders but none of them are politicians.
Trump can't do as much damage as some folks forecast in the same way that Obama can't really implement all of his ideas (thankfully!).  The Executive Branch doesn't make the laws, they just selectively enforce them, or not.  And there is the possibility of impeachment...  I'm not worried about Trump but Hillary scares the hell out of me.  As long as the Republicans control either the House or Senate, things will probably be ok.

The thing is, the Republicans really want to go to war with someone.  McCain is always wanting to get involved in something.  Our work in the middle east is done, the place is in flames.   Eastern Europe should be heating up any day now.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 18, 2016, 05:09:20 pm
...  The Executive Branch doesn't make the laws, they just selectively enforce them, or not.

Here they can also veto new laws, threaten to shut off the government,  control federal funds distribution, go to wars, and even make new laws (regardless how those things are called).

The pure model of three branches that is taught in civic class doesn't apply anymore. The central executive branch keeps growing, gaining more power, and becoming more intrusive.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Jeroen3 on June 18, 2016, 06:02:25 pm
Eastern Europe should be heating up any day now.
No wars in our backyard. Keep your main export product to yourself for once.
It's about Brexit here, not the next cold war.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 18, 2016, 06:15:57 pm
Eastern Europe should be heating up any day now.
No wars in our backyard. Keep your main export product to yourself for once.
It's about Brexit here, not the next cold war.

Very good, we will not need to bail you out again.

https://www.abmc.gov/cemeteries-memorials/europe/netherlands-american-cemetery (https://www.abmc.gov/cemeteries-memorials/europe/netherlands-american-cemetery)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 18, 2016, 07:34:29 pm
If you can't see the difference between WW2 where we were and still are very gratefull for your countries sacrifices and help to end it and all the next wars that were kind of started and escalated to insanity like Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, not to mention the meddling in South America, please don't , you will only make things worse. The only way to see and experience that is to have one on your own turf, then you will know and never want to be at war again.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 18, 2016, 07:52:10 pm
If you can't see the difference between WW2 where we were and still are very gratefull for your countries sacrifices and help to end it and all the next wars that were kind of started and escalated to insanity like Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, not to mention the meddling in South America, please don't , you will only make things worse. The only way to see and experience that is to have one on your own turf, then you will know and never want to be at war again.
I see your point, it was OK to bail out the Nederland but not South Korea, Kuwait, South Vietnam or the Shia in Iraq.

That's why I like Trump's 'America first' approach, let those ungrateful people fight their own wars.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 18, 2016, 08:21:50 pm
That's why I like Trump's 'America first' approach, let those ungrateful people fight their own wars.

Ah, how people forget "inconvenient" history.

When the UK was the dominant trading nation (19thC), we accepted the necessity of being the world's policeman, in order to maintain the trade.

The USA delayed entering WW2 for >2 years, until they could be sure that they would become the dominant trading nation afterward. Since they have chosen that role with its advantages, it looks childishly churlish if they don't like accepting the concomitant responsibilities.

In their favour, the USA has joined each war after WW2 early - some would argue too early, before it was necessary.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 18, 2016, 09:30:11 pm
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 18, 2016, 09:40:24 pm
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.
The fact that you fail to see the rationale may say something about you, not necessarily about him :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 18, 2016, 09:44:18 pm
With Britain and USA are both dealing with our own similar soul searching, I suppose that makes BRExit and Trump Movement so closely linked.  Further, both Britain and USA are not connected to the Continental Europe that gave us some what of a separation from continental European views.

To correct some misinterpretation of events:
Trump is not proposing exclusion of Muslim from entering/immigrating to the USA.  Trump is proposing a temporary halt on Muslim entering the USA until we find a good way of vetting them.  (Key words are in bold)

Recent events:
- Orlando FL, shooter called the police to pledge his allegiance to ISIS.
- CIA Director just yesterday warned us about ISIS using "refugees" to infiltrate.
Looking just a bit further back, there was the Boston Bombing, San Bernardino Shooting...  and
Philadelphia police ambushed and shot.

Temporary halts of immigration from adversaries occur every time we are at war.  While we did not declare war on them, they certain have done so on us, by action and by words.  So being under attack, I see a temporary halt of movement from attackers as a perfectly reasonable action.

Related but somewhat of a side note: The last case cited (Philadelphia) is in my opinion why Americans are loosing trust with establishment.  I saw the press conference live on TV.  The police chief just finish saying what the shooter told investigators: "I follow Allah. I pledge my allegiance to the Islamic State and that's why I did what I did."  Yet within moments the Mayor came up to the lectern and say "the shooting had nothing to do with Islam."
(it was a lectern and not a podium - it drives me crazy when people keep calling a lectern a podium).

* * *
Reference/Souce:

Shooting in Orlando FL, shooter called the police to pledge his allegiance to ISIS.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/06/12/orlando-nightclub-shooting-about-20-dead-in-domestic-terror-incident-at-gay-club/?utm_term=.dcc49c61967a (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/06/12/orlando-nightclub-shooting-about-20-dead-in-domestic-terror-incident-at-gay-club/?utm_term=.dcc49c61967a)
"The gunman was identified as Omar Mateen, a 29-year-old security guard who was born in New York to Afghan parents. After his initial assault on the dance club, Mateen called 911 and pledged allegiance to the leader of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, according to federal law enforcement officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the FBI investigation is unfolding. "


CIA Director just yesterday warned us about ISIS using "refugees" to infiltrate.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/16/politics/john-brennan-cia-isis/ (http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/16/politics/john-brennan-cia-isis/)
"Brennan warned that the group already is preparing more attacks, including by infiltrating refugees into western nations."


Philadelphia police ambushed and shot.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/08/us/philadelphia-police-officer-shot/ (http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/08/us/philadelphia-police-officer-shot/)
A 30-year-old man who allegedly ambushed and shot a Philadelphia police officer sitting in his patrol car
...
the suspect said to investigators: "I follow Allah. I pledge my allegiance to the Islamic State and that's why I did what I did."
...
Mayor Jim Kenney said the shooting had nothing to do with Islam.




Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 18, 2016, 09:47:07 pm
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.
The fact that you fail to see the rationale may say something about you, not necessarily about him :)

Ad hominem
attacks are always a great way to avoid addressing the issues.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 18, 2016, 09:51:04 pm
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.

What action did Trump took made him a demagogue?  What did he say that made him a demagogue?  Give me a quote please.

Remember, the Trump is the older guy who wants to get into the White House and not the younger one currently is in the White House.  Oh, also, Trump is the older MAN and not the older woman who used to be in the White House living quarters.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 18, 2016, 09:57:40 pm
I see your point, it was OK to bail out the Nederland but not South Korea, Kuwait, South Vietnam or the Shia in Iraq.

Pushing South Korea into independence was a mistake in retrospect and hard to justify at the time.

Supporting Hussein in the Iran war was a mistake in retrospect and hard to justify at the time.

Supporting Diem in Vietnam was a mistake in retrospect, supporting his assassination more so and hard to justify at the time. On top of that by the time the US population tired of war, the war had created a monster much worthier of fighting, Pol Pot.

The wars are sometimes justifiable, but the roads we keep taking towards them are not.

Which brings us to the Ukraine. The EU and international NGOs had no economic advantage in trying to bribe Ukraine into a trade deal which would preclude joining the Russian Customs Union. Now supposedly we have the moral obligation to bail out the Ukraine, because some EU bureaucrats being pushed by god knows what international forces wanted to poke the bear. Also we have to keep poking harder and harder to prove we are not appeasers, appeasers begot us Hitler don't you know.

PS. painting Trump as some supreme demagogue is silly, he's a clown. For every appeal to emotion he makes Obama makes a couple more. The only difference is the emotions they appeal to, Obama appeals to the ones we are supposedly allowed to appeal to ... Trump not so much.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 18, 2016, 10:01:35 pm



Ad hominem
attacks are always a great way to avoid addressing the issues.

What issue, that all you see in Trump's campaign is an appeal to fear without any rationale base?

I think I did addressed it, it may be the result of your own projection.

This is not a personal attack.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 18, 2016, 10:03:58 pm
That's why I like Trump's 'America first' approach, let those ungrateful people fight their own wars.

Ah, how people forget "inconvenient" history.

When the UK was the dominant trading nation (19thC), we accepted the necessity of being the world's policeman, in order to maintain the trade.

The USA delayed entering WW2 for >2 years, until they could be sure that they would become the dominant trading nation afterward. Since they have chosen that role with its advantages, it looks childishly churlish if they don't like accepting the concomitant responsibilities.

In their favour, the USA has joined each war after WW2 early - some would argue too early, before it was necessary.

Regardless of our motivations back then, we don't have the will to get involved in Europe on a large scale basis.  We don't have a draft, there's no way in hell it could be restarted short of an attack on our shores by a nation state and we have lost the last 3 or 4 wars we have been in.  We have the tools but not the will to use them.

I don't think any nation should count on unconditional US support.  We're all in this separately!

And, yes, Trump is talking about exactly the things that concern his supporters.  Jobs, immigration, foreign relations.  Is he talking to people's fears?  Well, that depends on how you look at it.  There is nothing on this planet that I fear but there are a lot of things I view as wrong.  Pretty much the same list that Trump uses...

BREXIT brings a different dynamic to what the US might be willing to do.  I'm pretty sure we would commit whatever is necessary to assist the UK.  The US has always had the support of the UK.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 18, 2016, 10:06:20 pm
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.

What action did Trump took made him a demagogue?  What did he say that made him a demagogue?  Give me a quote please.
As enjoyable as it might be, this thread is not the appropriate place for a protracted discussion of Donald Trump's verbal excretions.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 18, 2016, 10:08:42 pm
I see it the opposite way. So far all other compaigns were an appeal to fear of Trump
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 18, 2016, 10:17:22 pm
...
...
Supporting Diem in Vietnam was a mistake in retrospect, supporting his assassination more so and hard to justify at the time. On top of that by the time the US population tired of war, the war had created a monster much worthier of fighting, Pol Pot.
...
...

Actually, I think the mistake was earlier than supporting Diem.  The mistake was not to see it as a war between the colony and the colonial master.  Instead we mistaken it as "war against communism."

My intepretation of history is that "Uncle Ho" really got closer to communism because they were the only ones willing to support him and we want to stand in the way to stop communism from gaining.  I think Ho would have been rather willing to give up communism to achieve nationhood.  So had we "play it right" and help him with "birth of a nation", there might have been a unified Vietnam under Ho and non-communist.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 18, 2016, 10:22:04 pm
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.

What action did Trump took made him a demagogue?  What did he say that made him a demagogue?  Give me a quote please.
As enjoyable as it might be, this thread is not the appropriate place for a protracted discussion of Donald Trump's verbal excretions.

If you cannot cite a quote, it is baseless.  Why then do you see this as an appropriate place for you to throw verbal bombs and baseless accusations?

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 18, 2016, 10:37:18 pm
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.

What action did Trump took made him a demagogue?  What did he say that made him a demagogue?  Give me a quote please.
As enjoyable as it might be, this thread is not the appropriate place for a protracted discussion of Donald Trump's verbal excretions.

If you cannot cite a quote, it is baseless. 
I could cite any number of quotes, as could anyone with access to a search engine. As I have already stated, this is not the appropriate venue.

Quote
Why then do you see this as an appropriate place for you to throw verbal bombs and baseless accusations?
The thread was already drifting into an acrimonious discussion of US politics, and I made a clearly fruitless effort to move from a discussion of Trump to the tactics of the Brexit crowd.

Discussing Brexit is interesting because the correct course of action is not at all obvious.

Discussing Trump is less so because there is a vast and largely unbridgeable gulf between his supporters and his detractors. "Discussions" inevitably become slanging matches.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 18, 2016, 11:14:18 pm

Discussing Brexit is interesting because the correct course of action is not at all obvious.


The UK voters need look no further than their own poet, John Milton:
"Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven."

Many of his writings were about political upheaval...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 18, 2016, 11:35:38 pm

Discussing Brexit is interesting because the correct course of action is not at all obvious.


The UK voters need look no further than their own poet, John Milton:
"Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven."

Is Satan really the most appropriate counsellor when searching for the right thing to do?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 19, 2016, 12:01:17 am
Quote
- Orlando FL, shooter called the police to pledge his allegiance to ISIS.

Far more than that.

The president and his men emphasized that the gunman is home grown. Why let him into our home?

The president and his men emphasized that the gunman is radicalized. Well, by his religion. What does that say about Islam's teaching?

The president and his men emphasized that the gunman is mentally ill. Well, who systemically dismantled our institutional care for mentally ill patients?

The president and his men emphasized that the gunman used an automatic weapon. Well, would he be any less evil had he used a rifle or a handgun to kill those people?

...

The president and his men had blood on their hands.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: ez24 on June 19, 2016, 12:22:30 am
Discussing Brexit is interesting because the correct course of action is not at all obvious.

Are there any non-bias sites explaining what Brexit is?
thanks
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: retrolefty on June 19, 2016, 12:36:51 am
Quote
The president and his men emphasized that the gunman used an automatic weapon. Well, would he be any less evil had he used a rifle or a handgun to kill those people?

He did not have a automatic weapon. He had semi-automatic rifle and handgun. I hate it when people get the facts wrong or don't understand the technology vocabulary.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 19, 2016, 12:49:01 am
Discussing Brexit is interesting because the correct course of action is not at all obvious.

Are there any non-bias sites explaining what Brexit is?
thanks

Maybe this:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/europe/britain-european-union-brexit.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/europe/britain-european-union-brexit.html?_r=0)

Basically, over time, the UK leaves the EU.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Rick Law on June 19, 2016, 12:52:54 am
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.

What action did Trump took made him a demagogue?  What did he say that made him a demagogue?  Give me a quote please.
As enjoyable as it might be, this thread is not the appropriate place for a protracted discussion of Donald Trump's verbal excretions.

If you cannot cite a quote, it is baseless. 
I could cite any number of quotes, as could anyone with access to a search engine. As I have already stated, this is not the appropriate venue.

Quote
Why then do you see this as an appropriate place for you to throw verbal bombs and baseless accusations?
The thread was already drifting into an acrimonious discussion of US politics, and I made a clearly fruitless effort to move from a discussion of Trump to the tactics of the Brexit crowd.

Discussing Brexit is interesting because the correct course of action is not at all obvious.

Discussing Trump is less so because there is a vast and largely unbridgeable gulf between his supporters and his detractors. "Discussions" inevitably become slanging matches.

I have searched the web up and down, and as many others, we clearly see that your accusations are not supported by facts.

So, my point is - if it is not appropriate to cite quotes, then, it is not appropriate to say things that requires the support of a citation. 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 19, 2016, 01:38:53 am
The people that should know say Brexit will not happen. The odds for Leave are as high as 9/4.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result (http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 19, 2016, 02:20:46 am
The people that should know say Brexit will not happen. The odds for Leave are as high as 9/4.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result (http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result)

Well, in a few days we'll know.  Don't overlook the possibility of hidden anger and lying to pollsters.  People might not want to start a confrontation by admitting they'll vote to leave.  But they will...

It'll be fun to watch no matter how it comes out.  That's easy to say as a non-participant!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 19, 2016, 11:45:50 am
Discussing Brexit is interesting because the correct course of action is not at all obvious.

Are there any non-bias sites explaining what Brexit is?
thanks

Maybe this:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/europe/britain-european-union-brexit.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/europe/britain-european-union-brexit.html?_r=0)

Basically, over time, the UK leaves the EU.

What is a good unbiased source within UK? One that looks at the poll and possible outcomes and effects without being linked to In or Out?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 19, 2016, 12:59:06 pm
What is a good unbiased source within UK? One that looks at the poll and possible outcomes and effects without being linked to In or Out?
The BBC one is reasonable http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 19, 2016, 01:02:15 pm
What is a good unbiased source within UK? One that looks at the poll and possible outcomes and effects without being linked to In or Out?
I don't think such a place exists.  Indeed, events are changing so fast it is difficult to predict the fate of the EU especially on it's eastern borders... just look at the deteriorating state of democracy in Turkey... unfortunately we live in an age of substantial change.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 19, 2016, 01:13:14 pm
What is a good unbiased source within UK? One that looks at the poll and possible outcomes and effects without being linked to In or Out?
The BBC one is reasonable http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388)
The BBC is heavily biased in favour of Remain.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 19, 2016, 01:49:21 pm
What is a good unbiased source within UK? One that looks at the poll and possible outcomes and effects without being linked to In or Out?
The BBC one is reasonable http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388)
The BBC is heavily biased in favour of Remain.
An unqualified claim from someone in the Leave camp.

I suspect that there is an implicit bias towards the Remain position in some BBC reporting, but on the whole I have found that they do their best to present facts without slanting them in either direction. Finding an absolutely impartial source of information is probably impossible.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 19, 2016, 01:54:55 pm
What is a good unbiased source within UK? One that looks at the poll and possible outcomes and effects without being linked to In or Out?
The BBC one is reasonable http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388)
The BBC is heavily biased in favour of Remain.

Riiiiight. Just like they are a bunch of hippie communists?

Or maybe because they point out the nonsense statements aren't backed up by solid facts and/or are lying-by-omission? (Nonsense that is spouted by both sides, IMNSHO).
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 19, 2016, 03:09:31 pm
What is a good unbiased source within UK? One that looks at the poll and possible outcomes and effects without being linked to In or Out?
The BBC one is reasonable http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388)
The BBC is heavily biased in favour of Remain.

Riiiiight. Just like they are a bunch of hippie communists?

Or maybe because they point out the nonsense statements aren't backed up by solid facts and/or are lying-by-omission? (Nonsense that is spouted by both sides, IMNSHO).
It's as much what they completely ignore.

Riots in Greece and France - Not newsworthy.
Switzerland withdraws it's application to join the EU - Not newsworthy.

Remain makes a claim - Very high proportion on the main news page of the website.
Leave makes a claim - Low proportion on the main news page of the website, usually only on politics sub-page, or referendum sub-sub-page.

Their explanations of how the EU works always gloss over the EU Commission. They always play down it's power and it's lack of democracy (lack of democracy is in fact never mentioned). They never mention that the only part of the EU which can propose laws has no democratic accountability at all. Or that there is no mechanism to repeal EU laws.

They do seem to have been getting less biased in the last month, as both sides have made more and more incredible claims.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 19, 2016, 03:33:43 pm
The Commission acts as a civil service, which admittedly makes them immensely powerful, but doesn't give them decision-making powers, the (elected) European Parliament comments on them and can ask for changes, and the Council of Ministers (representing the democratically elected leaders of each member country)  makes the decisions.   Not perfect, but not obviously 'undemocratic' either.

The main role of the European Court (not to be confused with the European Human Rights Court, which is nothing to do with the EU) mainly checks whether governments have stuck to what they agreed to.  If they don't like its decisions countries have to go back to the Council of Ministers and say where they would like things changed.  Democratically.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 19, 2016, 03:39:43 pm
To correct some misinterpretation of events:
Trump is not proposing exclusion of Muslim from entering/immigrating to the USA.  Trump is proposing a temporary halt on Muslim entering the USA until we find a good way of vetting them.  (Key words are in bold)

Yep.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=33233 (http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=33233)

"the Secretary of Treasury [State] and the Attorney General will invalidate all visas issued to Iranian citizens for future entry into the United States, effective today. We will not reissue visas, nor will we issue new visas, except for compelling and proven humanitarian reasons or where the national interest of our own country requires. This directive will be interpreted very strictly."

Jimmy Carter,  April 7 1980


This is the problem with America's SJW's, they were all born yesterday.


Also, LOL at the BBC being considered unbiased. I must say it's been a stealthy change which has made me question if it was just me or not, and I expect everyone at the BBC considers themselves neutral, but there have been too many times where echoes of literary dystopias are apparent.
Maybe it's one for history to reflect upon, such changes are hard to quantify and easy to dismiss, without hindsight nations undergoing such changes are powerless to stop it.

I suspect we are at least one small step closer to blood on the streets than we were before, too many people are being left out of this debate between invested career politicians.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 19, 2016, 04:01:53 pm
The Commission acts as a civil service, which admittedly makes them immensely powerful, but doesn't give them decision-making powers, the (elected) European Parliament comments on them and can ask for changes, and the Council of Ministers (representing the democratically elected leaders of each member country)  makes the decisions.   Not perfect, but not obviously 'undemocratic' either.

The main role of the European Court (not to be confused with the European Human Rights Court, which is nothing to do with the EU) mainly checks whether governments have stuck to what they agreed to.  If they don't like its decisions countries have to go back to the Council of Ministers and say where they would like things changed.  Democratically.
Except that is completely untrue.

Is the British civil service the only body able to propose laws? No. That is the job of our parliament.
Does the British civil service have agenda-setting powers? No. That is the job of our government.

So the European Commission, who you say are just a civil service, actually have the powers of our government and parliament. While the European parliament have rubber-stamping powers for those laws proposed by the commission. Now that's democracy!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 19, 2016, 04:02:46 pm
If it is 50/50 as the polls indicate I wish the UK good luck in the aftermath, you still have a devided population.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 19, 2016, 04:04:38 pm
Also, LOL at the BBC being considered unbiased.
The BBC tries hard to be neutral, sometimes mind-bendingly so but it does have bias.

However the EU Reality Check section of the website is clearly trying to provide a reliable source of information with so much bullshit floating around.

I note no-one has offered an alternative.

If it is 50/50 as the polls indicate I wish the UK good luck in the aftermath, you still have a devided population.
It was always going to be close, Cameron should have learned the lessons from the Scottish referendum but was hell bent on this course
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: pelule on June 19, 2016, 05:54:18 pm
Quote
The BBC tries hard to be neutral, sometimes mind-bendingly so but it does have bias.
As I am also living in net paying country, I am doing worldwide business, I am not able to be neutral either. I assume nobody does.
Never the less I like to tell my opinion.
My "not neutral" position:
Out of my view the main cause of the often claimed (social) imbalance is not caused by the EC, it's cause by that people, which try to make their maximum win at the expense of the society - just one example: use any trick (even illegal sometimes) to save taxes. The "BREXIT" vote will not change that.
My "cause of the problem":
All countries in the EC are controlled by majority decisions by "the nation". But the "one voice" does simply not exist, the "stream" changes whith each press release. The nation is a huge mass of different targets and motivations.
Each individual will claim to want the best for the comunity - but that's true only, if one has not to pay for personally.
That's the problem of democracy - a much more smart person ones said:
"The worst form of government I know, is democracy, but I don't know a better one".
The EC is just a bigger version - so I am not expecting a difference result.
My "proposal":
You may try to get informed, but as the sources of information will not be neutral, you have no realistic chance. Try your best, but accept - your voting will be emotional at the end.
My "prognosis":
I am highly confident - the UK, the world and also the global markets will deal with the result, as they allways do.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2016, 06:12:39 pm
Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 19, 2016, 06:46:12 pm
Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.
By all means don't do business outside the Eurozone if you're that worried.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 19, 2016, 06:51:10 pm
Quote
Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.
.

Simply , the pro-Brexit say that is maneouver from  Contra-Brexit with the goal to scare the british people for changing the poll.
 But  the view of the corporations with the several variations of the pound may interpret that isn't profitable to do bussiness with britishes.

I always say that the democracy is the new religious of the XXI century ,you only have to have faith on her

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 19, 2016, 08:39:05 pm


All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.

Your interest it mine do not matter here. It's about what is good for the UK and how it's citizens see the future of their country.

It's their country.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2016, 09:02:14 pm
Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.
By all means don't do business outside the Eurozone if you're that worried.
I'm not worried. Just stating the impact a Brexit is likely to have on my small business. Sure hurdles can be overcome but if I have the choice to buy hassle free from Germany or have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations then the outcome is easy to predict: buy from Germany.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 19, 2016, 09:13:36 pm
... Just stating the impact a Brexit is likely to have on my small business. Sure hurdles can be overcome but if I have the choice to buy hassle free from Germany or have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations then the outcome is easy to predict: buy from Germany.
Except when Holland leaves EU too (I mean, they kick out the EU bureaucrats)
Imagine to have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations just to do some business with one of those remaining overpriced bigstate EU countries.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 19, 2016, 10:16:36 pm
The Commission acts as a civil service, which admittedly makes them immensely powerful, but doesn't give them decision-making powers, the (elected) European Parliament comments on them and can ask for changes, and the Council of Ministers (representing the democratically elected leaders of each member country)  makes the decisions.   Not perfect, but not obviously 'undemocratic' either.

The main role of the European Court (not to be confused with the European Human Rights Court, which is nothing to do with the EU) mainly checks whether governments have stuck to what they agreed to.  If they don't like its decisions countries have to go back to the Council of Ministers and say where they would like things changed.  Democratically.


Except that is completely untrue.

Is the British civil service the only body able to propose laws? No. That is the job of our parliament.
Does the British civil service have agenda-setting powers? No. That is the job of our government.

So the European Commission, who you say are just a civil service, actually have the powers of our government and parliament. While the European parliament have rubber-stamping powers for those laws proposed by the commission. Now that's democracy!

Actually in our system when a minister wants to bring in a new law it is the civil service that drafts it.  And quite often it is the civil service that suggests it!   Did you ever watch "Yes, Minister"?

And they do the cabinet agendas etc.   

Secondly, do you really believe the Commission dreams up many ideas that Cameron, Merkel or Hollande  haven't hinted might be welcome?    TTIP for instance sounds a remarkably Anglo-Saxon initiative.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 19, 2016, 10:42:02 pm
The Commission acts as a civil service, which admittedly makes them immensely powerful, but doesn't give them decision-making powers, the (elected) European Parliament comments on them and can ask for changes, and the Council of Ministers (representing the democratically elected leaders of each member country)  makes the decisions.   Not perfect, but not obviously 'undemocratic' either.

The main role of the European Court (not to be confused with the European Human Rights Court, which is nothing to do with the EU) mainly checks whether governments have stuck to what they agreed to.  If they don't like its decisions countries have to go back to the Council of Ministers and say where they would like things changed.  Democratically.

Except that is completely untrue.

Is the British civil service the only body able to propose laws? No. That is the job of our parliament.
Does the British civil service have agenda-setting powers? No. That is the job of our government.

So the European Commission, who you say are just a civil service, actually have the powers of our government and parliament. While the European parliament have rubber-stamping powers for those laws proposed by the commission. Now that's democracy!

Actually in our system when a minister wants to bring in a new law it is the civil service that drafts it.  And quite often it is the civil service that suggests it!   Did you ever watch "Yes, Minister"?

And they do the cabinet agendas etc.   

Secondly, do you really believe the Commission dreams up many ideas that Cameron, Merkel or Hollande  haven't hinted might be welcome?    TTIP for instance sounds a remarkably Anglo-Saxon initiative.

Ah so the Commission is 'Yes Minister', but without the minister. That I can believe.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2016, 10:59:24 pm
... Just stating the impact a Brexit is likely to have on my small business. Sure hurdles can be overcome but if I have the choice to buy hassle free from Germany or have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations then the outcome is easy to predict: buy from Germany.
Except when Holland leaves EU too (I mean, they kick out the EU bureaucrats)
Imagine to have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations just to do some business with one of those remaining overpriced bigstate EU countries.
I wouldn't call Germany overpriced. When I visit Germany and France I notice how many small businesses you see in the street. In Germany the restaurants and hotels are much cheaper than in the rest of West Europe.

Something else popped into my mind: how about CE when dealing with the UK in case of a Brexit? If the UK leaves the EU and I buy things from the UK I'll become the importer so I'm liable for any EMC and safety issues so basically I'd have to ask the supplier to go through a certification process and produce the paperwork instead of self-certification. The other way around is the same. And what will the UK regulations be?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: ez24 on June 19, 2016, 11:20:31 pm
From someone that really does not know what is going on.

Looking at the BBC link, I see that the most migrants are from Poland.

How does someone from Poland migrate to England?  Does someone just hop on a bus and arrive in England?  Do they need a passport?  I am making a guess there is no visa therefore no visa time restrictions.   Do they get unemployment and other benefits on arrival?  If so it seems a good way to redistribute wealth.

Is there anyway a US citizen can join the EU?  :-DD   One thing I hate about being a US citizen is how hard it is to stay (long visit) in another country.  In my youth I traveled a lot and visa stays was always a consideration on what country I went to.   I would love to be able to just show up and not worry about getting arrested for overstaying a visa.  As far as I know there is no country where I can stay for more than a year without going through hard steps.

It would be good if there was a EU that offered honorary memberships to US citizens.  I would love to be able to stay in some of them without worrying about a visa.




Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2016, 11:21:42 pm
Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.
By all means don't do business outside the Eurozone if you're that worried.
:palm: Why someone should believe in UK and not worry? Want to deal (read subsidize)  with UK supplier if it becomes easier/better to deal somewhere else? Say there is supplier in Sweden, now it's 10% more expensive than someone in UK. Given all other things being about the same sure I will sure choose the deal from UK. Then after brexit, UK and Swedish suppliers still offer the same price but now UK is a pain in the ass. So for example, I still can get VAT back, but I would need to pay customs tax which can vary from small to not so small depending on the goods and which I won't be able to claim back. So given the paperwork, worrying that something will bounce at the customs, delayed delivery and say 5% customs tax, I will just say fuck it and go to Swedish supplier which now is just 5% more expensive to me but order of magnitude easier to deal with. No offence, just business.
But if there will be some trade agreement with no customs tax, then I don't know what the point was to brexit in the first place because it will be Pyrrhic victory for UK. Need to apply to the same rules as before just without any saying anymore.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 19, 2016, 11:22:41 pm

Something else popped into my mind: how about CE when dealing with the UK in case of a Brexit? If the UK leaves the EU and I buy things from the UK I'll become the importer so I'm liable for any EMC and safety issues so basically I'd have to ask the supplier to go through a certification process and produce the paperwork instead of self-certification. The other way around is the same. And what will the UK regulations be?

What do you do about products you buy from the US?  CE is self-certification from our companies as well.

I think reciprocity is the word of the day.  If the remaining members of EU want to make life difficult for the UK, well, reciprocity can just as well shut the EU out of the UK.  I have always wondered why the US puts up with so much crap from the EU and retaliates so little.  I suspect it is because of the disconnect between US industry and US lawmakers.  All that crap about Microsoft having to distribute another company's browser.  What's that about?  Anybody could download the browser with a single use of Microsoft's browser.  But, no, Microsoft has to change their distribution CDs AND pay a huge fine.  What a crock!  $732 million fine for distributing their own browser.  Had I been Microsoft, I would have never sold another product in Europe.  They could all run Linux for all I care.  That ought to set them back a couple of decades!


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 19, 2016, 11:29:57 pm
Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.
By all means don't do business outside the Eurozone if you're that worried.
:palm: Why someone should believe in UK and not worry? Want to deal (read subsidize)  with UK supplier if it becomes easier/better to deal somewhere else? Say there is supplier in Sweden, now it's 10% more expensive than someone in UK. Given all other things being about the same sure I will sure choose the deal from UK. Then after brexit, UK and Swedish suppliers still offer the same price but now UK is a pain in the ass. So for example, I still can get VAT back, but I would need to pay customs tax which can vary from small to not so small depending on the goods and which I won't be able to claim back. So given the paperwork, worrying that something will bounce at the customs, delayed delivery and say 5% customs tax, I will just say fuck it and go to Swedish supplier which now is just 5% more expensive to me but order of magnitude easier to deal with. No offence, just business.
But if there will be some trade agreement with no customs tax, then I don't know what the point was to brexit in the first place because it will be Pyrrhic victory for UK. Need to apply to the same rules as before just without any saying anymore.

How did it work before the EU?  It'll probably be a lot like that.  Either the EU and UK will come to terms or they won't.  Somehow, the US, UK and EU have terms and they seem to be mostly workable.

Sure, being inside the EU will lead to buying from inside the EU.  But that's only part of the story!  The UK product will cost more due to tariffs but guess what?  The EU product will just rise in cost until it all equals out.  Nobody is going to get a bargain!  What possible motivation would a EU company have to keep their prices below the import price of the same UK product.  All other factors (quality, features, etc) being equal...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 19, 2016, 11:35:40 pm
Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.

Wildly fluctuating, yes - but I don't expect the pound and the euro to fluctuate wildly.  They will find their relative levels and changes will tend to be slow and gradual in response to macro economic events.

It tends to be a much larger problem for long term purchases/investments, such as contracts for fuel purchases or partial payments for long lead-time projects.

But there are hedge mechanisms available for most all of that, and in the case of small business, currency conversions are trivial and if there are legitimate concerns about long-term volatility, stipulations to pay in local currency can be put in place.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2016, 11:43:16 pm
I have always wondered why the US puts up with so much crap from the EU and retaliates so little.
On this side of globe I see it completely opposite way. And don't get why we act as sockpuppets of US when it obviously is against our own interests. For example, US wanted to get rid of Gaddaffi and Assad. Well good for them (because they are far far away) but not for us because we are those who are nearby and now need deal with consequences. Or say Nulland Cookies in Ukraine. Then after that democratization of Ukrainian regime have gone haywire, sanctions against Russia and Retaliation sanctions from them. US basically forced EU to put those sanctions and that has bad impact only on EU and Russia but not on US, because US have not much of trade with Russia unlike us. Interesting what US would say if say Russia or China would start democratize Mexico or Canada under US border?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2016, 11:49:20 pm
What possible motivation would a EU company have to keep their prices below the import price of the same UK product.  All other factors (quality, features, etc) being equal...
50+ % of UK export goes into EU. UK is less than 10% of of EU export/import. So now think who have more possibilities to deal with someone else and internal competition as well.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 19, 2016, 11:51:21 pm
Except when Holland leaves EU too (I mean, they kick out the EU bureaucrats)
Imagine to have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations just to do some business with one of those remaining overpriced bigstate EU countries.

Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.  Same if you pay by credit card.  Fee is no different than it is for other transactions, generally speaking.

As for paperwork, it's up to each country and within the control of each country to handle their paperwork burden.  It would be a fantastic opportunity for a nation like the UK to streamline their processes.  It's gotten better over the years, but it's not perfect.  Having said that, I ship stuff around the world and shipping to the UK or EU or Canada is only fractionally more difficult than shipping within the USA.  All that is required for postal shipment is a description, a value and a country of origin - 3 lines on an online form.

It does get more difficult for freight, UPS, high value and the like, but all of those hurdles are put in place by the receiving country and they are perfectly capable of trimming it down.

And trimming it down to the bare minimum should be a top priority if the UK does vote for leave the EU (and should be a priority for any country who wants to get ahead on international trade).
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 19, 2016, 11:57:00 pm
But if there will be some trade agreement with no customs tax, then I don't know what the point was to brexit in the first place because it will be Pyrrhic victory for UK. Need to apply to the same rules as before just without any saying anymore.

That's kind of the point - there doesn't need "everything else" that goes along with EU membership (open borders, immigrant immigration, subjugation to EU technocrats) in order to implement a free trade program.

Part of the selling point of the EU is that free trade is good.  If that's the case, then of course the EU would want to have free trade with the UK.  The only reason not to would be out of spite, and politics generally doesn't happen on the basis of spite (regardless of how it's threatened before the fact).  So the UK can leave and just implement virtually the same trade deal they had the moment before they left. 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2016, 12:03:43 am
That's kind of the point - there doesn't need "everything else" that goes along with EU membership (open borders, immigrant immigration, subjugation to EU technocrats)
There are no open borders with UK in the first place. Also migration from EU is highly overrated either.
Quote
subjugation to EU technocrats
If there will be trade agreement even remotely similar to what is now, EU technocrats won't be gone anywhere, only that UK won't have any saying.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2016, 12:06:53 am
Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.
Yeah and they will take their fair share of 7-10% (transaction fee which apperant for the seller + conversion which is apperant for the buyer) :-DD. Not suitable for big orders either, I can send the right currency in bank transfer too. Talking was about exchange rate fluctuations too BTW.
EDIT: in most cases expect at least 10% in total if the seller is not a big business with reduced fees. PayPal exchange rate is among the worst.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2016, 12:16:29 am
How did it work before the EU?  It'll probably be a lot like that.  Either the EU and UK will come to terms or they won't.  Somehow, the US, UK and EU have terms and they seem to be mostly workable.
Apparently not so well if UK decided to join the EU.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 20, 2016, 12:25:24 am


How did it work before the EU?  It'll probably be a lot like that.  Either the EU and UK will come to terms or they won't.  Somehow, the US, UK and EU have terms and they seem to be mostly workable.
Apparently not so well if UK decided to join the EU.

You need to revisit the promises and FUD from that time. Don't assume that the process then was somehow perfect.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: mtdoc on June 20, 2016, 01:25:26 am
With the British Pound jumping over 200 pips (a big move) against the US Dollar today (and US market futures also up)- the market seems to have decided that as of right of now, exit is low probability - despite opinion polls.  What does the market know that the people don't?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: ez24 on June 20, 2016, 03:13:25 am
I have always wondered why the US puts up with so much crap from the EU and retaliates so little.
On this side of globe I see it completely opposite way. And don't get why we act as sockpuppets of US when it obviously is against our own interests. For example, US wanted to get rid of Gaddaffi and Assad. Well good for them (because they are far far away) but not for us because we are those who are nearby and now need deal with consequences. Or say Nulland Cookies in Ukraine. Then after that democratization of Ukrainian regime have gone haywire, sanctions against Russia and Retaliation sanctions from them. US basically forced EU to put those sanctions and that has bad impact only on EU and Russia but not on US, because US have not much of trade with Russia unlike us. Interesting what US would say if say Russia or China would start democratize Mexico or Canada under US border?

Because of the many many US screw ups, if the US says stay then, to me, they should leave. 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 20, 2016, 03:42:00 am
There are no open borders with UK in the first place. Also migration from EU is highly overrated either.

The UK is not part of the schengen agreement, but citizens of EU countries do have the right to come/go from the UK to work and live at will.  Substantially more EU citizens go to the UK than go out of the UK.

Quote
If there will be trade agreement even remotely similar to what is now, EU technocrats won't be gone anywhere, only that UK won't have any saying.

Of course they will.  Right now, the UK is one voice of many when it comes to technocrats.  In a post-Brexit trade negotiation, they are one voice of two at the table.  As the second largest economy of the EU, it's not like the EU can afford to tell Britain to piss off, nor would they want to.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 20, 2016, 03:48:30 am
Yeah and they will take their fair share of 7-10% (transaction fee which apperant for the seller + conversion which is apperant for the buyer) :-DD. Not suitable for big orders either, I can send the right currency in bank transfer too. Talking was about exchange rate fluctuations too BTW.
EDIT: in most cases expect at least 10% in total if the seller is not a big business with reduced fees. PayPal exchange rate is among the worst.

No, they do not take 7-10%.  They add a margin on top of the interbank rate, but you can also elect to pay in the seller's currency, which means your bank is the one handling the currency conversion instead of PayPal.

But it's false to chalk this up as a Brexit issue because Britain already uses a different currency.  So in that respect, nothing will change other than possibly the GBP/Euro rate would be more volatile - but that's just speculation.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 20, 2016, 05:09:44 am
OK - Here's a question that may be relevant to the rest of the world....

How will Britain's exiting from or staying in the EU affect other non-EU countries?

As an example - how might it affect exchange rates between the USA and Australia?  Do I, as an Aussie, buy stuff from the USA now ... or wait until later?


The global community and global economy are quite significant these days - far more so than 100 years ago.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 20, 2016, 06:15:41 am
With the British Pound jumping over 200 pips (a big move) against the US Dollar today (and US market futures also up)- the market seems to have decided that as of right of now, exit is low probability - despite opinion polls.  What does the market know that the people don't?

A: nothing.

Q: Why nothing?
A: You misunderstand of the markets. They don't bet on what they think will happen in the economy. They bet on what they think other market traders think will happen in the economy.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: mtdoc on June 20, 2016, 06:43:05 am
With the British Pound jumping over 200 pips (a big move) against the US Dollar today (and US market futures also up)- the market seems to have decided that as of right of now, exit is low probability - despite opinion polls.  What does the market know that the people don't?

A: nothing.

Q: Why nothing?
A: You misunderstand of the markets. They don't bet on what they think will happen in the economy. They bet on what they think other market traders think will happen in the economy.

Perhaps I should have worded it differently. After years of active trading - making and losing many thousands - i know as well and anyone that the market is not always right.  But the fact remains that the divergence between the recent opinion polls and the market's change since the Cox murder is curious and unexplained. Obviously we'll know more soon.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: NivagSwerdna on June 20, 2016, 07:11:35 am
But the fact remains that the divergence between the recent opinion polls and the market's change since the Cox murder is curious and unexplained.
Not really. Overall volatility is very high, e.g. CDS Spread on UK debt is at levels twice it was in January.  BrExit or BrRemain is a discontinuity, there will be wild swings until it becomes a certainty.
Sadly, I think the actions of one man have provided a back-drop that will be exploited to paint any BrExit supporter as 'a hater', 'xenophobic', etc and although that will not change the core support it will be enough to swing the undecided voter.  What is more ironic is that it provides a boost to the group that did their utmost to suppress freedom of speech at the recent thames demo.   That's politics/history I guess  |O
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 20, 2016, 07:33:43 am

Something else popped into my mind: how about CE when dealing with the UK in case of a Brexit? If the UK leaves the EU and I buy things from the UK I'll become the importer so I'm liable for any EMC and safety issues so basically I'd have to ask the supplier to go through a certification process and produce the paperwork instead of self-certification. The other way around is the same. And what will the UK regulations be?
What do you do about products you buy from the US?  CE is self-certification from our companies as well.
With products from outside the EU the importer becomes liable so a smart importer makes sure he gets documents from a qualified testing facility which proof the product has been tested. So in general the self-certification is a no-go for imported stuff.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 20, 2016, 07:36:46 am
Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.
Wildly fluctuating, yes - but I don't expect the pound and the euro to fluctuate wildly.  They will find their relative levels and changes will tend to be slow and gradual in response to macro economic events.
Not really. I have seen the euro/pound move wildly (20% or so) over the timeframe of just a few months. Just look at the graphs of the exchange rate!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 20, 2016, 07:39:23 am
Except when Holland leaves EU too (I mean, they kick out the EU bureaucrats)
Imagine to have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations just to do some business with one of those remaining overpriced bigstate EU countries.
Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.  Same if you pay by credit card.  Fee is no different than it is for other transactions, generally speaking.
Using Paypal for a business transaction of several $k ???  :palm: The piss-poor exchange rate Paypal offers makes the cost of a wire transfer look like peanuts in comparison.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: TheAmmoniacal on June 20, 2016, 09:25:22 am
I am wishing for a brexit just so I can see the action  :popcorn:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 20, 2016, 04:52:54 pm
Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.  Same if you pay by credit card.  Fee is no different than it is for other transactions, generally speaking.
If you enter into an inter-currency transaction where an automatic conversion is applied then you will, to one degree or another, get fleeced. Either by the transaction charge  or by an overly large dealing spread on the conversion or possibly both.

The banks remain less than transparent on this one although it is a bit better than it used to be as it is now possible to get something much closer to the market rate on relatively small amounts of money through specialist brokers or alternative outfits such as TransferWise.

But for the odd, infrequent, transaction the actual difference is going to be pretty small and the convenience likely to be worth it. However if you are doing it regularly then the best way is to establish an account in the "other" currency and transfer funds to it via a broker. That also has the advantage of fixing the rate and also dampening out short term fluctuations in rates.

A: You misunderstand of the markets. They don't bet on what they think will happen in the economy. They bet on what they think other market traders think will happen in the economy.
Well, not exactly. For one thing they are mostly all using the same models and the same data so it amounts to much the same thing.

I think the reality is somewhat more complex - nothing gets a trader fired up more than thinking they have a better handle on future market movements than their compatriots so I think I would say that a trader bets not only on what s/he thinks the market will do but also on the difference between that and what s/he thinks the other traders think that the market will do.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 20, 2016, 05:08:20 pm
The betting odds for Leave got even lower at 10/3 (was 9/4).

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result (http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result)

If you are for Remain, it's time to bet on Leave, to hedge your disappointment in case Leave wins.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: amiq on June 20, 2016, 05:21:51 pm
Project fear on both sides, I supose both camps tried to use the Unionist tactics from the Scottish referendum.  The majority of the English participents  in this thread are belching win'.

This is a short summary of the consequences of leaving from Professor Michael Dougan of the University of Liverpool.
https://youtu.be/AQanMs2Pskc

And a short guide to the structure of the EU from Scotland in Europe.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/alynsmith/pages/2336/attachments/original/1464942911/WBB-download.pdf

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 20, 2016, 07:25:10 pm
That's a very interesting video.  He did make the point that access to the single market brought along the requirement for free movement of people from countries in the EU.  I suspect that this is a sticking point for many.  If we had such a requirement in the US, all of South America and Mexico would be vacant.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 20, 2016, 08:00:00 pm
That's a very interesting video.  He did make the point that access to the single market brought along the requirement for free movement of people from countries in the EU.  I suspect that this is a sticking point for many.  If we had such a requirement in the US, all of South America and Mexico would be vacant.

That's one of the reasons that I thought it was so patronising of Obama to come to the UK and shpiel on about how good the EU is.  There is no way on earth that the US would agree to have open boarders with Mexico, free movement across the whole continent, and their laws decided upon in Toronto and their supreme court overruled by a court in Rio.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 20, 2016, 08:09:25 pm
I don't know why Obama got into the BREXIT discussion.  Nobody in the UK is going to change their point of view based on his position.  This is strictly an internal matter for the people of the UK to decide.  Outsiders, me included, have no standing.

It was good to watch an educated person describe the issues.  There are many, no doubt.  But if we had a requirement for free movement here in the US, I know how I would vote!  I also noticed he glossed over benefits due upon entry.  I think that would be a hard sell around here.  In fact, we are fighting over it here in California where the legislature has every intention of extending full medical benefits to all of our illegal aliens.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 20, 2016, 08:12:50 pm
That's a very interesting video.  He did make the point that access to the single market brought along the requirement for free movement of people from countries in the EU.  I suspect that this is a sticking point for many.  If we had such a requirement in the US, all of South America and Mexico would be vacant.
Wrong conclusion. For a single market to work you'd need to set standards to become a member of that single market like the EU does.
The US actually has far far less stricter immigration policies than the EU. If you are in the EU illegally you will be deported even if you have lived and worked in the EU for over a decade. No green card lotteries or loopholes to get a permanent stay & work permit. Before you are allowed to enter most EU countries you'll need to learn the local language of the country you want to live in before you arrive and you'll need to have a means to support yourself (or a spouse with a reasonable salary).
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 20, 2016, 08:23:22 pm
For a rather less serious video, John Oliver and his US show Last Week Tonight have an amusing take on the debate, which closes with a rousing rendition of his song "F**k the European Union":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 20, 2016, 08:55:11 pm
That's a very interesting video.  He did make the point that access to the single market brought along the requirement for free movement of people from countries in the EU.  I suspect that this is a sticking point for many.  If we had such a requirement in the US, all of South America and Mexico would be vacant.
Wrong conclusion. For a single market to work you'd need to set standards to become a member of that single market like the EU does.
The US actually has far far less stricter immigration policies than the EU. If you are in the EU illegally you will be deported even if you have lived and worked in the EU for over a decade. No green card lotteries or loopholes to get a permanent stay & work permit. Before you are allowed to enter most EU countries you'll need to learn the local language of the country you want to live in before you arrive and you'll need to have a means to support yourself (or a spouse with a reasonable salary).

that is not quite true. You do not need to learn the language in most countries UNLESS you want to become a CITIZEN. There is no requirement to learn BEFORE you arrive. And the requirement is usually linked to benefits - so if you do NOT learn the language - the benefits issued at lower rates or not at all.  All countries incl the US requires you to have enough money to support yourself upon entry. For the US you also need a return ticket and I think minimum $50 per day you plan to stay.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 20, 2016, 08:59:36 pm
. Before you are allowed to enter most EU countries you'll need to learn the local language of the country you want to live in before you arrive and you'll need to have a means to support yourself (or a spouse with a reasonable salary).

Bollocks.  :palm:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 20, 2016, 09:35:12 pm
Project fear on both sides, I supose both camps tried to use the Unionist tactics from the Scottish referendum.  The majority of the English participents  in this thread are belching win'.

This is a short summary of the consequences of leaving from Professor Michael Dougan of the University of Liverpool.
https://youtu.be/AQanMs2Pskc

And a short guide to the structure of the EU from Scotland in Europe.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/alynsmith/pages/2336/attachments/original/1464942911/WBB-download.pdf

Are these two sources supposed to be neutral?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 20, 2016, 09:47:10 pm
It was good to watch an educated person describe the issues.  There are many, no doubt.  But if we had a requirement for free movement here in the US, I know how I would vote!

If I lived in the North of the US I would too ... if you can't get useful borders on a federal level then state level is better than nothing.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rstofer on June 20, 2016, 09:57:54 pm
Are these two sources supposed to be neutral?

The John Oliver clip was far more entertaining!  Not as entertaining as the actual vote but pretty funny.  The theme song is outstanding!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 20, 2016, 10:23:59 pm
That's a very interesting video.  He did make the point that access to the single market brought along the requirement for free movement of people from countries in the EU.  I suspect that this is a sticking point for many.  If we had such a requirement in the US, all of South America and Mexico would be vacant.
Wrong conclusion. For a single market to work you'd need to set standards to become a member of that single market like the EU does.
The US actually has far far less stricter immigration policies than the EU. If you are in the EU illegally you will be deported even if you have lived and worked in the EU for over a decade. No green card lotteries or loopholes to get a permanent stay & work permit. Before you are allowed to enter most EU countries you'll need to learn the local language of the country you want to live in before you arrive and you'll need to have a means to support yourself (or a spouse with a reasonable salary).
that is not quite true. You do not need to learn the language in most countries UNLESS you want to become a CITIZEN.
That was what we where talking about here: immigration, not a holiday or another form of short term stay!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 20, 2016, 11:00:35 pm
That's a very interesting video.  He did make the point that access to the single market brought along the requirement for free movement of people from countries in the EU.  I suspect that this is a sticking point for many.  If we had such a requirement in the US, all of South America and Mexico would be vacant.
Wrong conclusion. For a single market to work you'd need to set standards to become a member of that single market like the EU does.
The US actually has far far less stricter immigration policies than the EU. If you are in the EU illegally you will be deported even if you have lived and worked in the EU for over a decade. No green card lotteries or loopholes to get a permanent stay & work permit. Before you are allowed to enter most EU countries you'll need to learn the local language of the country you want to live in before you arrive and you'll need to have a means to support yourself (or a spouse with a reasonable salary).
that is not quite true. You do not need to learn the language in most countries UNLESS you want to become a CITIZEN.
That was what we where talking about here: immigration, not a holiday or another form of short term stay!

Just because you immigrate - you do not need to become a citizen! And you do not need to learn the language before you arrive. Many countries will pay... for "immigrants" to do language courses. So for refugees - they get paid a "salary" for showing up and learning local language.

And road to citizenship in most EU countries is not easy apart from some (mostly) former Eastern European states are actively "selling" EU passports for investment into their economies. Spain does also sell "access" but so far only Spanish visa's - not passports.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 20, 2016, 11:19:03 pm
Two years ago the Swiss had an anti-immigration referendum, which was passed by 50.3% of the vote.

Now that it is just about to come into force and the consequences are understood, only 21% still want it. That's right, the majority of the people that voted in favour now want to change their mind.

FFI, see https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601721/why-scientists-are-so-worried-about-brexit/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601721/why-scientists-are-so-worried-about-brexit/) and note that the URL hints why it is relevant to electronics. Note that although Switzerland != UK, the reasons and consequences will largely apply to the UK.

Let's make new mistakes, not repeat other people's mistakes.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 21, 2016, 12:27:37 am
That's one of the reasons that I thought it was so patronising of Obama to come to the UK and shpiel on about how good the EU is.

Intervention in internal matters goes both ways

https://www.jihadwatch.org/2016/05/uks-cameron-trumps-muslim-immigration-ban-very-dangerous-thing-to-say (https://www.jihadwatch.org/2016/05/uks-cameron-trumps-muslim-immigration-ban-very-dangerous-thing-to-say)

There is no way on earth that the US would agree to have open boarders with Mexico, free movement across the whole continent, and their laws decided upon in Toronto and their supreme court overruled by a court in Rio.

Don't be so sure. Obama and the likes provide incentive and protection to illegals here. Definitely not America first.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 21, 2016, 12:32:22 am
Wildly fluctuating, yes - but I don't expect the pound and the euro to fluctuate wildly.  They will find their relative levels and changes will tend to be slow and gradual in response to macro economic events.
Not really. I have seen the euro/pound move wildly (20% or so) over the timeframe of just a few months. Just look at the graphs of the exchange rate!

Moves of 20% over a matter of months aren't wild fluctuations.  That's normal currency exchange variation that you see between any stable currencies like pounds, dollars, euros, yen, etc.  And these fluctuations have existed for as long as the Euro has existed, so it's not something new that's going to happen that will cause big problems for EU<->UK transactions.  It will be the same old, same old.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 21, 2016, 12:37:59 am
Except when Holland leaves EU too (I mean, they kick out the EU bureaucrats)
Imagine to have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations just to do some business with one of those remaining overpriced bigstate EU countries.
Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.  Same if you pay by credit card.  Fee is no different than it is for other transactions, generally speaking.
Using Paypal for a business transaction of several $k ???  :palm: The piss-poor exchange rate Paypal offers makes the cost of a wire transfer look like peanuts in comparison.

You don't have to let PayPal do the conversion.  You can use PayPal as the mechanism for transfer allowing you to use any credit or debit card you like, paying in the receivers local currency, and getting the benefits of PayPal while letting your chosen bank do the currency transfer.

Again, this is not something unique to a Brexit as these things have been going on for years and years.  It's just a non-issue.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 11:31:20 am
Except when Holland leaves EU too (I mean, they kick out the EU bureaucrats)
Imagine to have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations just to do some business with one of those remaining overpriced bigstate EU countries.
Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.  Same if you pay by credit card.  Fee is no different than it is for other transactions, generally speaking.
Using Paypal for a business transaction of several $k ???  :palm: The piss-poor exchange rate Paypal offers makes the cost of a wire transfer look like peanuts in comparison.

You don't have to let PayPal do the conversion.  You can use PayPal as the mechanism for transfer allowing you to use any credit or debit card you like, paying in the receivers local currency, and getting the benefits of PayPal while letting your chosen bank do the currency transfer.
Now you are moving the goal posts. First you say to use Paypal and have them convert the currency and then you say let your bank do the conversion. That is a great idea  :palm: NOT! First you pay Paypal transaction fees and then currency conversion fees to your bank. The added value of Paypal is zero in this situation. A bank to bank wire transfer is the simplest and cheapest solution compared to using Paypal or a credit-card.
Quote
Again, this is not something unique to a Brexit as these things have been going on for years and years.  It's just a non-issue.
If it where a non-issue then the euro would not have been in use nowadays. Also in many industries (like oil) they use one currency to make life easier. Now again try to explain why having different currencies is a non-issue. Also a 20% fluctuation on a 100k euro project means being 20k euro too expensive or earning 20k euro less.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 21, 2016, 01:00:48 pm
Your point is moot. We're not part of the Eurozone and never have been thank $deity.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 01:07:23 pm
Your point is moot. We're not part of the Eurozone and never have been thank $deity.
Except for 2008 the EU as a whole has outperformed the UK significantly when it comes to economic growth since 1992 until now. Who is -obviously- doing something wrong here? IMHO the people in the UK are paying a hefty price for a bit of pride.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 21, 2016, 01:19:25 pm
It has nothing to do with pride.

Tell that to the Greeks, Spanish, Italians, Irish and Portuguese.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 21, 2016, 01:30:24 pm
IMHO the people in the UK are paying a hefty price for a bit of pride.

... or the people in the Nederland have no pride, giving away the independence of their country for a quick gain.

Different people, different values and priorities, you can't project your own values on other. Let them decide how they see future of their country.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 21, 2016, 01:31:23 pm
Your point is moot. We're not part of the Eurozone and never have been thank $deity.
Except for 2008 the EU as a whole has outperformed the UK significantly when it comes to economic growth since 1992 until now. Who is -obviously- doing something wrong here? IMHO the people in the UK are paying a hefty price for a bit of pride.

Everyone took a hit 2008-2009, the UK briefly dipped below the Eurozone early in the recovery but had been outperforming the Eurozone and is once again outperforming the Eurozone.

(https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/uk-us-eurozone.png)

However what I worry about is this

(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/manufacturing-2000-2012-500x373.png)

Manufacturing took a huge hit in 2008-9 and really has not recovered.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 01:43:39 pm
... In Germany the restaurants and hotels are much cheaper than in the rest of West Europe.
Like in: Double the price than in other parts of West Europe.
At least, my experience till 2010, in developed parts of Germany, parts with de-facto employment opportunities.

With products from outside the EU the importer becomes liable so a smart importer makes sure he gets documents from a qualified testing facility which proof the product has been tested. So in general the self-certification is a no-go for imported stuff.
With products from inside EU the buyer is responsible too. No difference.

Something else popped into my mind: how about CE when dealing with the UK in case of a Brexit?...
Your mind invoked another unnecessary unexisting problem.
Manufacturer makes product, chooses to certify CE or chooses to not certify and sell it with a workaround as experimental of not-working.
Buyer buys with CE to be ready to sell/integrate or without CE and does everything himself.

No difference if the buyer buys it in Germany of Serbia.
No diference if the manufacturer sells it from Germany or Serbia.
 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 21, 2016, 01:57:50 pm
"I fell like a second-class citizen in my own country"

That is the title of a front page article from nytimes today on brexit. And that pretty sums up a lot of people feel in Manny Western countries right now.

The article is really nice to read as it is a classic example of super journalism. Something we haven't seen from the media, especially nytimes, for a long long time. Very well done.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 02:07:53 pm
"I fell like a second-class citizen in my own country"
... And that pretty sums up a lot of people feel in Manny Western countries right now.

Same here. We are currently invaded by a hostile jew-hating gay-hating army, just like the years the Nazi army invaded our territory.
That army is 90% male and healty, just like the Nazi army.
They take goods and services without paying, helped by the local goverments, just like in 1939/1940.
In our community, local politicians and bureaucrats held a meeting to "inform" the population, they were escorted by armed police. Just like 1939/1940.
Local Nazi crimes were talked about as incidents, criticising them could cost your job, collaborating helped an indicvidual rising on the picking order, had many benefits.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 02:12:22 pm
Everyone took a hit 2008-2009, the UK briefly dipped below the Eurozone early in the recovery but had been outperforming the Eurozone and is once again outperforming the Eurozone.
(https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/uk-us-eurozone.png)
Yeah, it seems I got the wrong charts from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 21, 2016, 02:12:28 pm
The Single Currency typifies the folly of those who run the EU.  I'm not an economist, merely a technician, but even to me it is blindingly obvious that one currency, with one central bank, one interest rate (and thus one and only one economic policy) could never work across countries with economies as different as Germany and Greece, the Netherlands and Cyprus, etc etc.  The countries with weaker economies were essentially bribed with huge EU grants, subsidies and loans, but the reality of the situation soon showed (I have seen this first hand in Ireland), and these countries were plunged into debt and recession.

This economic folly alone shows that the EU is either completely incompetent, or puts its goal of a United States of Europe at any cost above the economic practicalities of their policies.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 02:15:21 pm
Your mind invoked another unnecessary unexisting problem.
Manufacturer makes product, chooses to certify CE or chooses to not certify and sell it with a workaround as experimental of not-working.
Buyer buys with CE to be ready to sell/integrate or without CE and does everything himself.

No difference if the buyer buys it in Germany of Serbia.
No diference if the manufacturer sells it from Germany or Serbia.
Now explain that to the lawyers in case your product caused a problem with a liability claim consisting of 7 figures. They have a shortage of arms and legs to do this  :palm:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 21, 2016, 02:16:14 pm
Quote
Something else popped into my mind: how about CE when dealing with the UK in case of a Brexit?
I don't think it would be as issue, even if we left it would make sense to adhere to the harmonized EU standards for chemical,. medical, electrical, machinery and all the rest. Anyone exporting to Europe would have to follow these standards, there may be some exceptions and that is where import controls or the lack of them come into play, it's our fault for letting this stuff get into the country not the EU. Don't forget a hell of a lot of work has gone into harmonizing the various European standards over the last 40 years, one o the better aspects of the EU.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 21, 2016, 02:21:10 pm
Your point is moot. We're not part of the Eurozone and never have been thank $deity.
Except for 2008 the EU as a whole has outperformed the UK significantly when it comes to economic growth since 1992 until now. Who is -obviously- doing something wrong here? IMHO the people in the UK are paying a hefty price for a bit of pride.

Everyone took a hit 2008-2009, the UK briefly dipped below the Eurozone early in the recovery but had been outperforming the Eurozone and is once again outperforming the Eurozone.

(https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/uk-us-eurozone.png)

However what I worry about is this

(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/manufacturing-2000-2012-500x373.png)

Manufacturing took a huge hit in 2008-9 and really has not recovered.

More up to date GDP growth here http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth) and here http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth)

Probably best not mention Eurozone youth unemployment http://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/ (http://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/) and for $deity sake don't, whatever you do, look at the figures for the Southern EU states.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 21, 2016, 02:52:05 pm
Probably best not mention Eurozone youth unemployment

Eek, France is worse than expected.
I reckon their employment laws need looking at, overly protective from what I gather.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 03:01:29 pm
The Single Currency typifies the folly of those who run the EU.  I'm not an economist, merely a technician, but even to me it is blindingly obvious that one currency, with one central bank, one interest rate (and thus one and only one economic policy) could never work across countries with economies as different as Germany and Greece.
You have to put that into perspective: In hindsight it is very obvious Greece should never have been allowed to use the euro in the first place. It wouldn't surprise me if Greece stops using the euro in the next couple of years because their problems are still huge.

Still using a single currency makes doing business a lot easier by eliminating risk and reducing costs but you have to interlink some economical aspects of the countries involved but that shouldn't be a problem for countries which are run well (unlike Greece). An idea isn't bad just because it is poorly executed.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 21, 2016, 03:04:11 pm
Probably best not mention Eurozone youth unemployment http://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/ (http://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/) and for $deity sake don't, whatever you do, look at the figures for the Southern EU states.

Sssssshhhhhhhh!  Be quiet!  The EU (and particularly the Euro) have been a huge success for those countries!  The experts in Brussels keep telling us so!  They don't bother to ask people in said countries how the Euro project has actually worked out for them of course...


Anyway, as someone has mentioned, whether we leave or not, the Eurozone will implode in the next 5 years, leading to a breakup of the EU anyway...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 21, 2016, 03:05:29 pm
The Single Currency typifies the folly of those who run the EU.  I'm not an economist, merely a technician, but even to me it is blindingly obvious that one currency, with one central bank, one interest rate (and thus one and only one economic policy) could never work across countries with economies as different as Germany and Greece.

One might draw parallels with the US which has one currency, one economic policy, one interest rate and 50 states with GDP's per capita which range from over $180,000 (OK, DC is an outlier) to under $36,000 - how do they manage?

Quote
The countries with weaker economies were essentially bribed with huge EU grants, subsidies and loans, but the reality of the situation soon showed (I have seen this first hand in Ireland), and these countries were plunged into debt and recession.
The EU itself can't really afford "huge grants, subsidies and loans", its budget isn't actually that large - in very round figures about €150 billion.

Greece got into trouble, then couldn't get out the usual way by devaluing its currency (and thus its debt).

I would agree, though, that for the Euro to survive closer political integration is likely to be needed which might not be in the UK's interest - at the moment, however, we are able to stand back from that.


More up to date GDP growth here http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth) and here http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth)

Which supports the fact that the UK is currently doing better than the eurozone. Slightly hard to put the two side by side though so this might make things clearer (note different vertical scales):

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/uk-forum-members-brexit/?action=dlattach;attach=235138;image)

The real question though is not whether the UK is currently outperforming the EU but whether it will continue to do so if we leave. I am inclined to think not and that Michael Dougan's point is important - that a lot of countries use us as a gateway to the EU. This is, of course, very good for us but we have to be clear that we need to be a member of the EU to play that role.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 21, 2016, 03:09:10 pm
Watch the video from the professor from Liverpool again, the UK might be doing better because they are part of the eurozone.
Now noone knows what is going to happen after a Brexit but chances are that economic growth might plummet.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 21, 2016, 03:24:49 pm
"chances are that economic growth might plummet."

Generally consensus is for a 2 to 3 percent declined, with some extreme figures on the downside.

Long term numbers are hard to tell. But economics really isn't what's driviv this. It is thee displeasure with the political systems as well as existential concerns, both for the people and for their culture and identify. IE this is an issue that no amount of money can solve.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 21, 2016, 03:48:19 pm
"chances are that economic growth might plummet."

Generally consensus is for a 2 to 3 percent declined, with some extreme figures on the downside.

Long term numbers are hard to tell. But economics really isn't what's driviv this. It is thee displeasure with the political systems as well as existential concerns, both for the people and for their culture and identify. IE this is an issue that no amount of money can solve.
Economics is and certainly should be part of the debate, but I agree that it is not the whole picture.

I suspect that it is a much bigger factor in the decision making process of better off and better educated people who, on the whole, favour remaining in the EU.

Amongst the red-top reading classes I think the issue of immigration is likely to be higher especially with the "taking our jobs, houses, NHS and school places" propaganda that UKIP likes to push.

These are real issues, of course, but have varying degrees of b**g*r all to do with us being in the EU.

Jobs - lack of UK investment in appropriate training and development - nothing to do with membership of the EU except that they are supplying workers that we need.
NHS - government policy ultimately to privatise the service - nothing to do with membership of EU and promises by "leave" campaigners unlikely to be realised.
Schools - OK, yes, extra pressure from immigrant groups, especially in London but lack of investment in infrastructure given that the population is growing anyway is nothing to do with membership of the EU.
Houses - possibly increased pressure from migrant groups but possibly not. Anyway 30 years of underinvestment by the government has nothing to do with EU membership.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 21, 2016, 04:05:36 pm
Now you are moving the goal posts. First you say to use Paypal and have them convert the currency and then you say let your bank do the conversion. That is a great idea  :palm: NOT! First you pay Paypal transaction fees and then currency conversion fees to your bank. The added value of Paypal is zero in this situation. A bank to bank wire transfer is the simplest and cheapest solution compared to using Paypal or a credit-card.

You're being obstinate.

PayPal is a convenient method to invoice someone and to pay someone, regardless of the location of the seller and the buyer.

PayPal also will do the currency conversion if you choose.  It is trivial to let your bank do the currency conversion (you simply select the button marked "pay in the receivers currency").  You still get the convenience of PayPal.  You're suggesting that the buyer needs to jump through additional hoops - they don't.  They select a radio button during the checkout process.  That doesn't negate the other benefits of PayPal. 

The point is that buying things from foreign countries with differing currencies is a non-issue.  It's been a non-issue for years.  We are not talking about sending tens of thousands of Euros or Pounds in which case there are other methods which have also been in place for years.  We are talking about the impact to the average resident of the UK leaving the EU.  Suggesting that transactions will be more complicated in this case simply isn't accurate.


Quote
If it where a non-issue then the euro would not have been in use nowadays. Also in many industries (like oil) they use one currency to make life easier. Now again try to explain why having different currencies is a non-issue. Also a 20% fluctuation on a 100k euro project means being 20k euro too expensive or earning 20k euro less.

The implementation of the Euro has at least as much to do with monetary policy as it has to do with transaction ease.  And you're still ignoring the point that the UK *already* has their own currency and always has.  You're doggedly pursuing this point of debate when it represents exactly nothing different post-Brexit as pre-Brexit. 

The only possible change is the pound and euro would possibly fluctuate more than they do with the UK being part of the EU, but that's speculation and not really rooted in fact, IMO - after all, the UK has it's own economy, parliament and society and that won't change.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 21, 2016, 04:46:50 pm
However what I worry about is this

(http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/manufacturing-2000-2012-500x373.png)

Manufacturing took a huge hit in 2008-9 and really has not recovered.

I know you're not in favor of an exit, but having more control over their own future and laws ought to allow the Brits to set up a favorable manufacturing infrastructure (financial, logistical, labor) that would make the nation an outstanding choice for companies looking to manufacture high-end goods for fast and easy transport to the mainland.

I'd say the biggest challenge for the UK - and the biggest opportunity - if they do exit is to implement such a favorable competitive environment as compared to the EU.

It's definitely doable, but it would be hard to implement with all the various factions jockeying for power and control. 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 21, 2016, 05:11:28 pm
...but having more control over their own future and laws ought to allow the Brits to set up a favorable manufacturing infrastructure (financial, logistical, labor) that would make the nation an outstanding choice for companies looking to manufacture high-end goods for fast and easy transport to the mainland.

But that wouldn't happen. In order to get favourable trade agreements, we would have to agree to the Ts&Cs that "the other side" follows, putting us in the same boat as them. That's the Swiss experience based on their 2014 "anti-immigration" referendum, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601721/why-scientists-are-so-worried-about-brexit/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601721/why-scientists-are-so-worried-about-brexit/)

Start by considering the TTIP :(
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 21, 2016, 05:13:11 pm
I know you're not in favor of an exit, but having more control over their own future and laws ought to allow the Brits to set up a favorable manufacturing infrastructure (financial, logistical, labor) that would make the nation an outstanding choice for companies looking to manufacture high-end goods for fast and easy transport to the mainland.
Watch the video of the professor from Liverpool, that is not going to happen after a Brexit. Goods can not be imported as is without hassle to the mainland, paperwork, customs, taxes, laws, you name it.
And this is already going on, a blueray sent from London, no problem. A blueray sent from the canal islands like Jersey, two weeks delay and customs charge.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 21, 2016, 05:21:34 pm
The Single Currency typifies the folly of those who run the EU.  I'm not an economist, merely a technician, but even to me it is blindingly obvious that one currency, with one central bank, one interest rate (and thus one and only one economic policy) could never work across countries with economies as different as Germany and Greece, the Netherlands and Cyprus, etc etc.  The countries with weaker economies were essentially bribed with huge EU grants, subsidies and loans, but the reality of the situation soon showed (I have seen this first hand in Ireland), and these countries were plunged into debt and recession.

This economic folly alone shows that the EU is either completely incompetent, or puts its goal of a United States of Europe at any cost above the economic practicalities of their policies.

I think the (foolish) belief was that a monetary policy could be enacted that would provide EU-wide stability and would even out the peaks and valleys, so that if one country was having difficulty, another would be able to pitch in to help.

Like Germany bailing out Greece.

But that doesn't really work unless the financial decision making is centralized too - there's not much to stop (for example) Greece from voting themselves largess, and not having to really worry about footing the bill.  I think an unexpected consequence is sort of a double negative in that countries like Germany necessarily have to pick up the tab for someone like Greece causing resentment from the German side - but that also leads to resentment from the Greeks who feel like they're under the thumb of Germany and their own wealth was taken and used to bail them out.

Germany has gotten a mixed bag - if they had kept the Deutchemark, it would be so highly valued compared to the Euro that their exports would suffer. 

And that really underscores the necessary ultimate goal and result of the EU.  Either administration MUST become much more centralized, which means countries lose much or most of their power and identity, or it has to fall apart.  Adding somewhere like Turkey into the mix would really throw everything for a loop.

I think it's a ultimately a binary choice between a one-EU government or reversing back to a trading authority only, and I don't see any way the former will ever happen.  The EU has only faced one real test in the 2008 financial crisis where it performed pretty badly.  Wait until it faces war, or economic implosion in a member country or something like that - it will crumble.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 05:38:29 pm
Adding somewhere like Turkey into the mix would really throw everything for a loop.
Forget about Turkey becoming part of the EU within the next 20 years. Turkey's dictator just set the clock back 30 years. Also Greece was a mistake the EU is likely not to make again.

I don't understand why you think the EU will suddenly fall apart. It has been there in one form or another since 1957. The EU is not some afterthought that was put in place during the last decade.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 05:42:17 pm
Now explain that to the lawyers in case your product caused a problem with a liability claim consisting of 7 figures. They have a shortage of arms and legs to do this  :palm:
No difference exists in explaining that to your lawyer for your product, with parts bought inside/outside EU.
There is no difference when you succesfully checked/traced the CE mark.
There is no difference when you unsuccesfully checked the CE mark.
There is no difference when in both situations you ignored the absence of a CE mark.

And please don't start those populist simplistic :palm: things when you refuse to explain your insights and jump to another generalising quote.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 05:45:18 pm
...Forget about Turkey becoming part of the EU within the next 20 years. Turkey's dictator just set the clock back 30 years.
Too late, they are already member of the EU-establishment.
The dictator in Turkey is elected thanks to the millions of turks across EU.
The Merkel/Juncker dictators are elected thank to the same guys.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 21, 2016, 05:47:10 pm
Like Germany bailing out Greece.

Except the Greek bailout has nothing to do with assisting Greece. It's a way of funnelling money to the German banks who lent Greece a shit-ton of cash they knew Greece had no way of paying back.

By using the ECB to 'bail out' Greece, Greece's notional debt gets bigger, but as they will default as soon as no more bail out funds are paid to those banks, their debt is owned by the ECB and can be passed on to the populous of the Eurozone.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 05:47:42 pm
Now explain that to the lawyers in case your product caused a problem with a liability claim consisting of 7 figures. They have a shortage of arms and legs to do this  :palm:
No difference exists in explaining that to your lawyer for your product, with parts bought inside/outside EU.
There is no difference when you succesfully checked/traced the CE mark.
There is no difference when you unsuccesfully checked the CE mark.
There is no difference when in both situations you ignored the absence of a CE mark.

And please don't start those populist simplistic :palm: things when you refuse to explain your insights and jump to another generalising quote.
The laws says that either the manufacturer or importer (in case the manufacturer is outside the EU) is responsible for the product. Now ask yourself: would you be willing to be responsible for someone else's goof up? Oh, and don't take my word for it: http://europa.eu/youreurope/business/product/ce-mark/index_en.htm (http://europa.eu/youreurope/business/product/ce-mark/index_en.htm)

In other words: if the UK leaves the EU then many small electronics businesses will see that their customers who resell their products within the EU will require formal CE testing even though the production runs are small. The reason is simple: the UK based manufacturer is no longer within the EU and their customers suddenly become an importer instead of a distributor. A small change  but from a legal point of view being an importer is a very different role with much greater responsibilities and risks.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 05:49:30 pm
... to adhere to the harmonized EU standards for chemical,. medical, electrical, machinery and all the rest...
Like most also keep on manufacturing those things following reglementations of other countries, like UL. No need to invent other norms.

Don't forget a hell of a lot of work has gone into harmonizing the various European standards over the last 40 years, one o the better aspects of the EU.
I especially liked the parts where they copied what was in the german DIN norms for decades.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 05:54:21 pm
The laws says that either the manufacturer or importer (in case the manufacturer is outside the EU) is responsible for the product. Now ask yourself: would you be willing to be responsible for someone else's goof up? Oh, and don't take my word for it: http://europa.eu/youreurope/business/product/ce-mark/index_en.htm (http://europa.eu/youreurope/business/product/ce-mark/index_en.htm)
You simplify it to a level you understand it yourself, fine for me. But don't start to use that as a reference for others.
Stop using populistic expressions like "goof up" in overgeneralised quotes. Specify.

Where is your big difference in being responsible for a part that is bought with a checked CE mark from outside EU, and being responsible for a part that is bought with a checked CE mark from inside EU?

... the UK based manufacturer is no longer within the EU and their customers suddenly become an importer instead of a distributor. A small change  but from a legal point of view being an importer is a very different role with much greater responsibilities and risks.
Same here: explain what those legal differences are you found between reselling a UK product with a legal checked EU mark, and a German product with a legal checked EU mark.

if the UK leaves the EU then many small electronics businesses will see that their customers who resell their products within the EU will require formal CE testing even though the production runs are small.
if the UK does not kick the EU dictators out then... same text.

CE tests/certification are mandatory if workers/customers/public/children/... are involved. I assumed you at least knew that.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Koen on June 21, 2016, 06:01:37 pm
Same question as Galenbo, it's interesting.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 06:09:39 pm
The laws says that either the manufacturer or importer (in case the manufacturer is outside the EU) is responsible for the product. Now ask yourself: would you be willing to be responsible for someone else's goof up? Oh, and don't take my word for it: http://europa.eu/youreurope/business/product/ce-mark/index_en.htm (http://europa.eu/youreurope/business/product/ce-mark/index_en.htm)
You simplify it to a level you understand it yourself, fine for me. But don't start to use that as a reference for others.
Stop using populistic expressions like "goof up" in overgeneralised quotes. Specify.

Where is your big difference in being responsible for a part that is bought with a checked CE mark from outside EU, and being responsible for a part that is bought with a checked CE mark from inside EU?
You are making my point here exactly: 'a checked CE mark'. Devices made in the EU can be self certified by the manufacturer without risk for the distributor. However if you import stuff from outside the EU you'd be crazy to take that risk with self certified devices.

Many small electronics companies make a living by selling small production runs of devices where it really isn't economically viable to send each device out for a full CE conformance test in an accredited lab. This basically takes away any chance of UK based electronics companies to compete for contracts within the EU. They are several thousands of euros behind on the local competition before they start. Is that really so hard to see and understand??

For many products you don't need to use an accredited lab to fullfill CE marking requirements.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: John_ITIC on June 21, 2016, 06:09:59 pm
There is no way on earth that the US would agree to have open boarders with Mexico, free movement across the whole continent, and their laws decided upon in Toronto and their supreme court overruled by a court in Rio.

Don't be so sure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Union
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 21, 2016, 06:26:45 pm
Quote
if the UK does not kick the EU dictators out then... same text.

The Pirate King versus the EU dictators  :clap: ,simply i would prefer to sell very cheap my soul to devil that  is more reliable and the best option
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: retrolefty on June 21, 2016, 06:40:26 pm
Quote
CE tests/certification are mandatory if workers/customers/public/children/... are involved. I assumed you at least knew that.

 So whom does that leave that it is not mandatory for?   :-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 21, 2016, 06:49:17 pm
Quote
Is that really so hard to see and understand??

you don't insist more , they think that can penetrate a wall using their head without they hurt themselves  |O. But  we know the great majority will give the brains on the wall :-DD.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Towger on June 21, 2016, 07:42:30 pm
The CE regulations are a series of 'EU Directives'.
If they are written in to British law it will take more than leaving the EU to change them.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 21, 2016, 07:50:28 pm
Quote
For many products you don't need to use an accredited lab to fullfill CE marking requirements.
Surely for EMC compliance you have yo use an accredited lab ?
In the past I've tested products for mains safety and things like surge tests, brown out tests, leakage and some I can't even remember. As long as everything is documented, with photos as well, then there isn't much of a problem with self certification. It depends a lot on your end customer. I've seen a case where an accredited lab did a compliance test on a 10mW transponder, they said it was radiating somthing close to 100mW, the guy who designed it was furious to say the least, how the hell can that be it's only drawing 30mW at the most, I can't remember, they admitted their mistake and did the test for free.
I've also seen the not so respectible side of EMC testing, big system with lots of wire and shit Yaskawa drives that are CE marked but would never ever meet EMC requirements, there are a few pages hidden in the manual that tell you to bypass everything with ferrite and caps inside a sealed screened cabinet, then it will pass EMC. Anyway long story short, a week of EMC testing and retrofitting useless shit, I came to the conclusion that it would never pass, not even close. The manufacturers told the major US manufacturer, it passed, WTF, and still none the wiser. Rant over.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 21, 2016, 07:57:50 pm
The CE regulations are a series of 'EU Directives'.
If they are written in to British law it will take more than leaving the EU to change them.

We could go back to Imperial units and adopt American standards instead.   That would appeal to the older element of the Brexit crowd.  We could even go back to burning coal, delivered by horse and cart.  That would solve the Russian gas problem.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 08:10:15 pm
Quote
For many products you don't need to use an accredited lab to fullfill CE marking requirements.
Surely for EMC compliance you have yo use an accredited lab ?
No. For many devices you can just put a sticker on it with a CE mark. Having everything tested is what accredited labs have been shouting for a long time but that isn't what the law says. The laws says it has to comply with the regulations and as a manufacturer or importer you are responsible. HOW you know the device complies is up to you. If you think a device complies or have in-house testing facilities then nothing stops you from self certifying the device.

Things get different when safety is involved but then you enter into things like mains plugs, fuses, etc which where already required to undergo testing. In those cases CE marking unified/replaced many (different) standards from European countries.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: apis on June 21, 2016, 08:57:26 pm
I don't think there is any point, the UK will just end up worse than the other countries who are not members but have access to the inner market: they will have to implement all the EU directives anyway but they will no longer have any influence in Brussels. The other countries in that situation made a deal when they were deciding if they should join or not, so the EU gave them some leeway, if UK leaves they will really have to make it a good deal for the rest of the EU for them to accept it.

Also I'm curious how the Scottish would feel if the UK leaves EU. Surely they will want another independence referendum, if they have to choose between Westminster and EU, what is the bigger evil? I have a feeling most think it's Westminster.

I am wishing for a brexit just so I can see the action  :popcorn:
>:D
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 21, 2016, 09:30:03 pm
"Also I'm curious how the Scottish would feel if the UK leaves EU. "

A large investment bank today published a note today along the lines I mentioned earlier. The biggest blowback from brexit is likeely on thee political froont: you will likely see the collapse of the Cameron government, more independence movement (Scottish plus thee Spanish), uprising on the extreme rights as well as extreme left - one is going to be excited by brexit and another pissed at it, regardless of the outcome.

IE. A more decided europe. In my book, that's a better Europe.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 21, 2016, 10:04:30 pm
Quote
The laws says it has to comply with the regulations and as a manufacturer or importer you are responsible
Totally agree 100% but there are no border controls of any sort whatsover in the UK to stop unsafe electrical products getting into the country, Brexit or no Brexit it isn't going to make a difference. Trading standards, Customs and Excise, you got to be laughing, they've got very little or no control whatsoever is some cases. Allegedlly you can order just about anything online and it will arrive in a padded envelope some time later, border control, it's a joke.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 10:09:40 pm
Quote
The laws says it has to comply with the regulations and as a manufacturer or importer you are responsible
Totally agree 100% but there are no border controls of any sort whatsover in the UK to stop unsafe electrical products getting into the country, Brexit or no Brexit it isn't going to make a difference. Trading standards, Customs and Excise, you got to be laughing, they've got very little or no control whatsoever is some cases. Allegedlly you can order just about anything online and it will arrive in a padded envelope some time later, border control, it's a joke.
True but the devil is in the details: IF something goes wrong shit is going to fly and I rather make sure I will not be where the shit lands. Better be safe than sorry.

And don't be so sure about ordering whatever you want online. Mail and parcels do get checked much more thouroughly than you think.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 21, 2016, 10:12:36 pm
(http://www.icomuk.co.uk/images/icom/fieldsetField/235/CE_Marks_lrg.jpg)

Also I'm curious how the Scottish would feel if the UK leaves EU. Surely they will want another independence referendum, if they have to choose between Westminster and EU, what is the bigger evil? I have a feeling most think it's Westminster.

Like the Spanish would ever allow an independent Scotland to join. It'd only encourage the Catalans to pursue independence from Spain.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2016, 10:15:18 pm
[img]http://www.icomuk.co.uk/images/icom/fieldsetField/235/CE_Marks_lrg.jpg[/im
No, not this nonsense again  :palm: There is at least one court ruling which says the wrong CE logo is to be interpreted as a valid CE logo for all intends and purposes. So sorry, no loop hole.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: woodchips on June 21, 2016, 10:24:56 pm
Just read Why Vote Leave by Hannan, and pretty persuasive it is too.

Thing is, to leave the EU all a member country has to do is repeal Article 20 of the Lisbon Treaty and the EU is bound to accept. So, if we remain and the ever closer bit becomes suffocating then there is a way out in some years to come, irrespective whether anyone says in is in and out is out.

I do find this wonderfully reassuring.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 10:56:14 pm
Quote
CE tests/certification are mandatory if workers/customers/public/children/... are involved. I assumed you at least knew that.

 So whom does that leave that it is not mandatory for?   :-DD
Prototypes used as prototype, test setups in closed environments, tools only used by the owner himself, parts/devices that will not be used standalone and will be integrated into a bigger ensemble, temporary setups with partial certifications,...
Understand this sentence the way I wrote it: Every item with it's own exceptions, limits, assumptions.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 21, 2016, 10:57:25 pm
[img]http://www.icomuk.co.uk/images/icom/fieldsetField/235/CE_Marks_lrg.jpg[/im
No, not this nonsense again  :palm: There is at least one court ruling which says the wrong CE logo is to be interpreted as a valid CE logo for all intends and purposes. So sorry, no loop hole.
Well every day's a school day. I didn't know that and will have a bit more trust in the mark even if the letters are a bit too close together.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 10:57:44 pm
Quote
if the UK does not kick the EU dictators out then... same text.

The Pirate King versus the EU dictators  :clap: ,simply i would prefer to sell very cheap my soul to devil that  is more reliable and the best option
Every civilian had that choice in WW2 too.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 21, 2016, 11:09:50 pm
Quote
The laws says it has to comply with the regulations and as a manufacturer or importer you are responsible
Totally agree 100% but there are no border controls of any sort whatsover in the UK to stop unsafe electrical products getting into the country, Brexit or no Brexit it isn't going to make a difference. Trading standards, Customs and Excise, you got to be laughing, they've got very little or no control whatsoever is some cases. Allegedlly you can order just about anything online and it will arrive in a padded envelope some time later, border control, it's a joke.
You introduce a new aspect here. It's true you can buy uncertified items in china that should be certified.
But you can use it to burn your own house down, once you sell them you are responsible for checking and be somewhat safe, or ignoring and take the risk.
Making your own business of reselling uncertified/copyright/illegal items won't last long.

At least for me, I don't need a bigger control or opression from goverments. The ones who need should see it applied on them personally, not on the others.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 22, 2016, 12:25:41 am
The Single Currency typifies the folly of those who run the EU.  I'm not an economist, merely a technician, but even to me it is blindingly obvious that one currency, with one central bank, one interest rate (and thus one and only one economic policy) could never work across countries with economies as different as Germany and Greece, the Netherlands and Cyprus, etc etc.

I have to agree.  This is one aspect of the EU that never made sense to me.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: CatalinaWOW on June 22, 2016, 12:56:24 am
The Single Currency typifies the folly of those who run the EU.  I'm not an economist, merely a technician, but even to me it is blindingly obvious that one currency, with one central bank, one interest rate (and thus one and only one economic policy) could never work across countries with economies as different as Germany and Greece, the Netherlands and Cyprus, etc etc.

I have to agree.  This is one aspect of the EU that never made sense to me.

From the outside looking in - the problem isn't the difference in economies.  Various parts of the US are at least as different economically as the countries mentioned.  It is the difference in economies combined with the (to an outsider) strange mix of EU level control and local control.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 22, 2016, 01:06:06 am
For people living in a large country or an island it may be strange but needing 4 to 5 different currencies in one holiday (driving only 1 or 2 days away by car) is a major PITA!

IMHO what sets the EU apart from the rest of the world is that it is a collaboration of countries which (mostly) have a multi-party political system where nobody has absolute power. This translates into the EU not having a single captain but some kind of a round table where ideas are pitched, molded into new ideas and then agreed upon or thrown out. Since recent there is a EU president but this post is more or less ceremonial.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 22, 2016, 01:22:41 am
For people living in a large country or an island it may be strange but needing 4 to 5 different currencies in one holiday (driving only 1 or 2 days away by car) is a major PITA!


Yeah!  The PIGS* might be in economic turmoil due to having no control over their own financial policy having adopted the Euro, but at least your road trips are more convenient!  That's a small price (for them) to pay.  >:D

* Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 22, 2016, 06:47:01 am
Since recent there is a EU president but this post is more or less ceremonial.
There are no less than 4 EU presidents.

None of whom are democratically elected.

And I defy anyone to name them all without looking them up.

Go Democracy!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 22, 2016, 06:55:18 am


Yeah!  The PIGS* might be in economic turmoil due to having no control over their own financial policy having adopted the Euro, but at least your road trips are more convenient!  That's a small price (for them) to pay.  >:D

* Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain.

An inaccurate statement, in fact half the problem with Eurozone is the lack of fiscal harmonisation. Regardless I'll be voting to remain....
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 22, 2016, 07:14:04 am
Sorry, I went into rant mode on the CE marking thing. Thankfully deaths from unsafe appliances are rare, Amazon withdrew hoverboards because of the fire risks, but who is accountable and does the victim get any compensation. If somebody can be shown to be criminally neglegent then you might have a good chance, otherwise it would be a civil case and you would probably have to pay court costs.
Most of the forum members have a technical and/or scientific background and can make a judgemant call when it comes to electrical safety, members of the public who may not have the same technical and scientific background can't.
I think for most part CE marking and harmonized standards work well and if we stay or leave we would still have to adhere to the same standards.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 22, 2016, 07:30:16 am
The brexit will bring prosperity to the irish, good for them.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 22, 2016, 08:56:53 am
Since recent there is a EU president but this post is more or less ceremonial.
There are no less than 4 EU presidents.

None of whom are democratically elected.

And I defy anyone to name them all without looking them up.

Go Democracy!
Council - Donald Tusk
Commission - Jean-Claude Juncker
Parliament - Martin Schulz
Revolving presidency - The Netherlands

Had to look up Schulz and the current revolving presidency, But then I can't name a German politician other than Merkel and frequently forget who the French PM is.

Heck I'd be hard pushed to name all of the UK cabinet

The EU is not a soverign power - why would it have a president.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 22, 2016, 09:53:54 am
indeed they are all chairmans.
And I could also not name all the ministers in our cabinet let alone the state secretaries.

Anyway, the brexit is a good sign the EU should hold back a bit, it was going to fast without solving issues that really need to be solved.
What I also did not like one bit is that all countries had to economize because of the bad economic climate but the EU wanted more money each and every year.
That is rediculous, if all countries in the EU are doing great, fine they can raise their budget but if all countries are suffering so should they.
Also the EU employees have unbelievable tax benefits and traveling expenses that are beyond your wildest dreams. They should just act as normal as our own governments and pipe down a bit.
And concerning buying all the worthless bonds of all eu countries the last two years, OMG what are they thinking.
Come to think of it, why are we not leaving  :-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 22, 2016, 10:40:27 am
One thing the EU parliament can do without for sure is moving between Brussels and Strasbourg every month.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 22, 2016, 10:49:33 am
One thing the EU parliament can do without for sure is moving between Brussels and Strasbourg every month.
Agree on that one - it's utterly insane and wastes more than €100 million per year. Even most MEPs think it is nuts.

BUT changing it would require agreement of all 28 nations and itis generally agreed that the French want to continue with the parliament in Strasbourg and will not acquiesce.

I'm guessing the Belgians would feel the same about a permanent move to Strasbourg so I guess that isn't a solution.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 22, 2016, 11:06:32 am
"Also the EU employees have unbelievable tax benefits and traveling expenses that are beyond your wildest dreams. "

Everyone is equal, except some is more equal than others.

A sure sign of political corruption.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 22, 2016, 11:12:06 am
"Also the EU employees have unbelievable tax benefits and traveling expenses that are beyond your wildest dreams. "

Everyone is equal, except some is more equal than others.

A sure sign of political corruption.

So whats new?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 22, 2016, 11:56:42 am
Quote
CE tests/certification are mandatory if workers/customers/public/children/... are involved. I assumed you at least knew that.

 So whom does that leave that it is not mandatory for?   :-DD
Prototypes used as prototype, test setups in closed environments, tools only used by the owner himself, parts/devices that will not be used standalone and will be integrated into a bigger ensemble, temporary setups with partial certifications,...
Understand this sentence the way I wrote it: Every item with it's own exceptions, limits, assumptions.
So how any of those can be sold to the end customer unless it's some kind of bare board like Arduino. Those devices which can be sold as such are a minuscule part of total items produced.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 22, 2016, 01:10:47 pm
One thing the EU parliament can do without for sure is moving between Brussels and Strasbourg every month.
Agree on that one - it's utterly insane and wastes more than €100 million per year. Even most MEPs think it is nuts.
I suggest a 1-time move to Turkey. So Turkey has more than they ever dreamed of, and we will get rid of it all.

I'm guessing the Belgians would feel the same about a permanent move to Strasbourg so I guess that isn't a solution.
There is no generalised "feel" of the Belgians.
The directly/indirectly net oversubsidized Belgians want it to stay.
The ones that can directly/indirectly net pay for it want it to leave.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 22, 2016, 02:40:12 pm
One thing the EU parliament can do without for sure is moving between Brussels and Strasbourg every month.
Agree on that one - it's utterly insane and wastes more than €100 million per year. Even most MEPs think it is nuts.

BUT changing it would require agreement of all 28 nations and itis generally agreed that the French want to continue with the parliament in Strasbourg and will not acquiesce.

I'm guessing the Belgians would feel the same about a permanent move to Strasbourg so I guess that isn't a solution.
Move annually, rather than every month or split it in two and use video conferencing.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 22, 2016, 02:42:10 pm
One thing the EU parliament can do without for sure is moving between Brussels and Strasbourg every month.
Agree on that one - it's utterly insane and wastes more than €100 million per year. Even most MEPs think it is nuts.

BUT changing it would require agreement of all 28 nations and itis generally agreed that the French want to continue with the parliament in Strasbourg and will not acquiesce.

I'm guessing the Belgians would feel the same about a permanent move to Strasbourg so I guess that isn't a solution.
Move annually, rather than every month or split it in two and use video conferencing.

Haha!  Best of luck with that!

If the EU won't even make the change to avoid that travelling circus every month, how can we expect them ever to make the political reforms needed?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Towger on June 22, 2016, 03:34:51 pm
Also the EU employees have unbelievable tax benefits and traveling expenses that are beyond your wildest dreams. They should just act as normal as our own governments and pipe down a bit.

It must be the 'new' EU employees who pay tax. Approx 16% according to the internet.  I know someone who started when Ireland initially joined in the 70's and only retired a couple of years ago. She always maintained she paid no tax, as by a quirk in the system she was not resident in any country.  The travel allowances paid 1st/business class, but if you traveled steerage you could pocked the difference...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 22, 2016, 03:49:42 pm
If the EU won't even make the change to avoid that travelling circus every month, how can we expect them ever to make the political reforms needed?
This seems to be the usual criticism which is levelled at the EU but I am not sure it is totally valid.

For something like the monthly move of the EU Parliament then having to have unanimous agreement is always going to fall foul of one or two nations who stubbornly oppose change. But it might also be argued that it is a relatively inconsequential decision (and therefore ideal for endless debate). Moving Parliament and maintaining two sets of infrastructure is certainly wasteful but it does not fundamentally harm the EU.

On other matters agreement is reached and laws are enacted so I don't think it follows from the fact that agreement can't be reached on the switcheroo between Strasbourg and Brussels it automatically follows that other reforms would never be agreed upon.

Just quite likely  ;)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 22, 2016, 05:31:26 pm
Buried as a side note in the business section on our 'impartial' BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36596060 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36596060)

Quote from: Markus Kerber (head of BDI)
Imposing trade barriers, imposing protectionist measures between our two countries - or between the two political centres, the European Union on the one hand and the UK on the other - would be a very, very foolish thing in the 21st Century,
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FrankD on June 22, 2016, 05:56:07 pm
Inhabitants of Gibraltar can pack there bags if a brexit becomes a reality.  :popcorn:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 22, 2016, 06:05:25 pm
Quote
A German industry boss has said it would be "very, very foolish" if the EU imposes trade barriers on the UK in the event it votes to leave the EU

So ,when a employee has low performance, he generated conflicts between companions from corporation, according the German Boss would be a savagery to fire the troubled employee in the 21s century.

When it really ,this boss wouldn't doubt on any moment to fire the employee. I believe that is the same situation besides on  an easy situation , he wants to go out
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 22, 2016, 06:24:14 pm
Council - Donald Tusk
Commission - Jean-Claude Juncker
Parliament - Martin Schulz
Revolving presidency - The Netherlands

Juncker is a cheerful fellow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 22, 2016, 06:29:28 pm
Quote
Inhabitants of Gibraltar can pack there bags if a brexit becomes a reality.  :popcorn:

Years and years the abuses and insults  versus spanish , i glad  that the british vote for going out .

we can install to border a giant speakers and it plays a record from a oxided gate that is closing or the spanish song "the  english that came from London"

https://youtu.be/tvMUpxQHEmg (https://youtu.be/tvMUpxQHEmg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 22, 2016, 06:41:26 pm
Council - Donald Tusk
Commission - Jean-Claude Juncker
Parliament - Martin Schulz
Revolving presidency - The Netherlands

Juncker is a cheerful fellow :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU)





The Junker is the godparent from Europe
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 22, 2016, 07:01:43 pm
You should consume less propaganda on evenings. You are so concerned about Putin, but most of what you see are scare stories like those about Russian submarine 2 years ago which turned out to be bullshit as your defense minister admitted recently. Guess what was the purpose of searching non existent submarine:

There are no propaganda ask Trump and Farange! Its much better if you dont portray your self as Juerg Haider apologist by putting words in mouth. Im not particularly concerned merely holding the mirror reflect the future Putin-Trump friendship. Genuine swedes know their crocked politicians inside out and Russia has been a enemy since vikings lost Rus back in 800 AD or so. Besides the sub came from Austria and we Finns have very god president and gladly hire him out on consultant basis to US and Austria so they can learn a thing or two.

Iceland a viking nation led by a swedish viking just won 2-1 against a silly pompous Austria! Moooohahahahaha!  >:D
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: ez24 on June 22, 2016, 07:52:20 pm
Inhabitants of Gibraltar can pack there bags if a brexit becomes a reality.  :popcorn:

Why is Spain so popular with the British?  weather - economics   ??
(BBC says Spain is the number 1 country for British expats)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 22, 2016, 07:53:45 pm
Sun and cheap alcohol! Costa del sol is their favorite retirement destination, if Brittons exit Eu the Spaniards could quite easily demand them out of Spain! :popcorn:

(http://exp.cdn-hotels.com/hotels/2000000/1790000/1789600/1789597/1789597_67_z.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 22, 2016, 08:07:15 pm
Code: [Select]
Sun and cheap alcohol!
cheap and bad quality alcohol because the fine alcohol is more expensive.

Besides ,  free health service paid by the stupid spanish.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 22, 2016, 08:18:52 pm
Inhabitants of Gibraltar can pack there bags if a brexit becomes a reality.  :popcorn:

Why? We're all going to stay befriended nations, whatever the outcome. Everyone will do their best to make the situation after the vote work.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 22, 2016, 08:21:02 pm
Sun and cheap alcohol! Costa del sol is their favorite retirement destination, if Brittons exit Eu the Spaniards could quite easily demand them out of Spain! :popcorn:


Yeah, who'd want wealthy self-supporting retirees with pensions to spend in their country anyway?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 22, 2016, 08:23:28 pm
Pretty much everyone in the Remain camp has admitted that reform of the current EU is necessary.

Unfortunately the top bloke has made it clear that that is not going to happen.

Quote
British voters have to know that there will be no kind of renegotiation. We have concluded a deal with the prime minister. He got the maximum he could receive and we gave the maximum we could give. So there will be no renegotiation, not on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned.

http://order-order.com/2016/06/22/juncker-no-reform-vote-remain/ (http://order-order.com/2016/06/22/juncker-no-reform-vote-remain/)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 22, 2016, 08:29:07 pm
Buried as a side note in the business section on our 'impartial' BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36596060 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36596060)
Quote from: Markus Kerber (head of BDI)
Imposing trade barriers, imposing protectionist measures between our two countries - or between the two political centres, the European Union on the one hand and the UK on the other - would be a very, very foolish thing in the 21st Century,
So vote 'stay' because exiting the EU will impose trade barriers one way or another even though they are not intended that way. Think about taxes, import tarifs, visa, product safety regulations, etc, etc. All these will need to be contained within new treaties and there will be problems for sure if the UK wants to use different product safety regulations than mainland Europe. If the UK exits they basically have to follow product safety rules (they could choose to adopt the ones from the US) they cannot influence. Ofcourse they could try and set their own but that would make the products the UK imports more expensive due to needing extra testing.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 22, 2016, 08:47:45 pm
Sun and cheap alcohol! Costa del sol is their favorite retirement destination, if Brittons exit Eu the Spaniards could quite easily demand them out of Spain! :popcorn:
Yeah, who'd want wealthy self-supporting retirees with pensions to spend in their country anyway?

You assume utterly wrongly they are wealthy and self sporting!

5.5millon Brittons in Spain is there because Spain cheap and EU laws! Brittons if leaving EU could/would lose a range of specific rights to live, work and to access pensions, healthcare and public services that are only guaranteed because of EU laws. Brittonic citizens resident abroad who have retired to Spain would then not be able to assume that these rights will be guaranteed. Suddenly cheap Spain is not so cheap anymore so there goes your wealthy self supporting pensioners.

Put it this way if Brexit Spain might go sour on 5,5million Brtittons having free health care they didnt pay for in the first place!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 22, 2016, 08:51:08 pm
Why is Spain so popular with the British?  weather - economics   ??
(BBC says Spain is the number 1 country for British expats)

France is nearer, but they don't like anyone (including themselves I think).
I believe Portugal is almost the only country that we haven't been to war with.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 22, 2016, 08:56:21 pm

You assume utterly wrongly they are wealthy and self sporting!

5.5millon Brittons in Spain is there because Spain cheap and EU laws! Brittons if leaving EU could/would lose a range of specific rights to live, work and to access pensions, healthcare and public services that are only guaranteed because of EU laws. Brittonic citizens resident abroad who have retired to Spain would then not be able to assume that these rights will be guaranteed. Suddenly cheap Spain is not so cheap anymore so there goes your wealthy self supporting pensioners.

Put it this way if Brexit Spain might go sour on 5,5million Brtittons having free health care they didnt pay for in the first place!

5,500,000 Brits in Spain?  :-/O  Have you been on the vodka with that other dude?  :palm:

Seriously, where on earth did you get that number from?  It's around 750,000 I think...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 22, 2016, 09:13:21 pm
Vodka? No i dont drink Russian stuff, but would not say no to a Irish Cream. UK government, read a bit hastily, i stand corrected, so 5,5 million
abroad in total and 1 million in Spain, 1,4million Australia, 25000 in Sweden 15500 Norway...None dares come to Finland because of the language!

Anyhow point is, they might have to go back from sunny  low cost Spain!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 22, 2016, 09:15:12 pm
...Im not particularly concerned merely holding the mirror reflect the future Putin-Trump friendship.

It's a crooked mirror

(http://courtneywalsh.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c1a6753ef01a3fcc6cff9970b-500wi)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 22, 2016, 09:17:13 pm
It's a crooked mirror

(http://courtneywalsh.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c1a6753ef01a3fcc6cff9970b-500wi)

Yes i agree, also made in America!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 22, 2016, 09:34:14 pm
Sun and cheap alcohol! Costa del sol is their favorite retirement destination, if Brittons exit Eu the Spaniards could quite easily demand them out of Spain! :popcorn:



Spain would collapse (again) if all the Brits left. About 25 % of full time residents left between 2012 and 2014 - and that was felt on the economy along the popular spots. Most Brit  residents in Spain can actually pay for their own way from pensions - that is the kind of residents the local governments like! Money infused into the system - and all health/hospital issues invoiced on to the UK. REVENUE with no expense is the best part. And the Spanish while they love to say they don't like the Brits staying and taking housing in some places - they have found out the replacements nationalities are a lot worse. :)

Btw there are officially about 300.000 full time Brits left in Spain by mid of 2015.  Not 700.000... But if you count people with part time occupation (Like us) who have a little apartment there - then it might total to 700.000. But if they/we all left - the housing market would crash again. The locals says finally the Brits are returning and now they talk about Brexit..... 

Btw - I'm not a Brit but my family are. And we are lucky and found a place where people are mostly polite :) from locals to expats and not one of the "party" areas where it is full of Drunken Idiots with little respect for anything.

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 22, 2016, 09:47:34 pm
There are now at least 3 different figures, from where did you get your numbers? We could turn it the other way how many
 Polish plumbers have to leave if UK leave, or the total numbers of foreigners in UK? or will they automatically become UK citizens?

(http://giantgag.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/plumbers-crack-camouflage.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 22, 2016, 10:00:57 pm
so 5,5 million abroad in total and 1 million in Spain, 1,4million Australia, 25000 in Sweden 15500 Norway...None dares come to Finland because of the language!!
And the uk criminals come to Amsterdam  :(
Good luck tomorrow with voting!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 22, 2016, 10:21:14 pm
There are now at least 3 different figures, from where did you get your numbers? We could turn it the other way how many
 Polish plumbers have to leave if UK leave, or the total numbers of foreigners in UK? or will they automatically become UK citizens?


Most sources say about 300.000

From WIKI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Spain (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Spain)
and other: https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/ (https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/)
From SPANISH INE compiled data (actually < 300.000) : http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2016/05/17/eu-expats-deserting-spain-thanks-government-policy/ (http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2016/05/17/eu-expats-deserting-spain-thanks-government-policy/)
(INE data is based on NIE numbers - which are the social security number in Spain - you are required to be registered if full time resident - or if you buy anything that requires registration (car, moped, house, apartment)  - or even buy a POWER SUPPLY from an online electronics shop - used for VAT statistics on "larger items" ) :)
(http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/ine-padron-expats-2015.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 22, 2016, 10:55:45 pm
Vodka? No i dont drink Russian stuff, but would not say no to a Irish Cream. UK government, read a bit hastily, i stand corrected, so 5,5 million
abroad in total and 1 million in Spain, 1,4million Australia, 25000 in Sweden 15500 Norway...None dares come to Finland because of the language!

Anyhow point is, they might have to go back from sunny  low cost Spain!

So be it.  It should be the choice of the Spanish who is allowed to reside in their country.  Anyone who thinks that's a xenophobic or bigoted stance can fuck right off, to be frank.

Incidentally I think it's highly unlikely that Spain would want to punt all the Brits out, but should they wish to then who are we to tell them otherwise.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 22, 2016, 11:03:51 pm
"It should be the choice of the Spanish who is allowed to reside in their country. "

It would surprise me that you get called precisely that. As I point out earlier, we live in a twisted world right now.

Hopefully, people 500 years from now don't look at multiculturalism as the cauuse of thee demise of Western civilization.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 22, 2016, 11:10:27 pm
"It should be the choice of the Spanish who is allowed to reside in their country. "
I think they already did: who has money to spend stays. The climate in Spain is very tolerable even in the summer so I don't blame people for wanting to live there.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 22, 2016, 11:45:42 pm
Most sources say about 300.000

From WIKI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Spain (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Spain)
and other: https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/ (https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/)
From SPANISH INE compiled data (actually < 300.000) : http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2016/05/17/eu-expats-deserting-spain-thanks-government-policy/ (http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2016/05/17/eu-expats-deserting-spain-thanks-government-policy/)
(INE data is based on NIE numbers - which are the social security number in Spain - you are required to be registered if full time resident - or if you buy anything that requires registration (car, moped, house, apartment)  - or even buy a POWER SUPPLY from an online electronics shop - used for VAT statistics on "larger items" ) :)

Power supply?

Wikki is wikki , According to the BBC, there are 761,000 British residents in Spain.[3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_migration_to_Spain#cite_note-3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_migration_to_Spain#cite_note-3)
but 319 000 i think it was http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml (http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml) and 750 000 according to another UK gov estimate, 381 256 according to IBT!?  with one third of the total is registered of the total one would prefer?!!.. Prof Derrick Wyatt emeritus professor of law, Oxford University estimated 2million in total UK citizens lived abroad, assuming EU, no idea from where he got the numbers.

Hmm,,, to much fluctuations in the "estimated" measurements that's presented...
 
Anyho found some UK gov immigrant figure statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-january-to-march-2016/summary... (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-january-to-march-2016/summary...) have to study these....

More interesting i think is Spaniards in UK! :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaniards_in_the_United_Kingdom (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaniards_in_the_United_Kingdom)

Quote
Spain would collapse (again) if all the Brits left. About 25 % of full time residents left between 2012 and 2014 - and that was felt on the economy along the popular spots. Most Brit  residents in Spain can actually pay for their own way from pensions - that is the kind of residents the local governments like! Money infused into the system - and all health/hospital issues invoiced on to the UK. REVENUE with no expense is the best part. And the Spanish while they love to say they don't like the Brits staying and taking housing in some places - they have found out the replacements nationalities are a lot worse. :)

But Spain have collapsed, Barcelona wants out of Spain. ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiThRIHwQDE&ab_channel=ravajack (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiThRIHwQDE&ab_channel=ravajack)

Quote
Btw there are officially about 300.000 full time Brits left in Spain by mid of 2015.  Not 700.000... But if you count people with part time occupation (Like us) who have a little apartment there - then it might total to 700.000. But if they/we all left - the housing market would crash again. The locals says finally the Brits are returning and now they talk about Brexit.....

Yes but perhaps those who vote for a leave are those who cant afford a Spanish retirement house?
Brexit is then sort of poor jobless brit's against middle class wealthy brit's!

Quote
Btw - I'm not a Brit but my family are. And we are lucky and found a place where people are mostly polite :) from locals to expats and not one of the "party" areas where it is full of Drunken Idiots with little respect for anything.

But these drunken idiots is what some one here said was " self-supporting retirees with pensions to spend".. :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 22, 2016, 11:49:00 pm
Buried as a side note in the business section on our 'impartial' BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36596060 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36596060)
Quote from: Markus Kerber (head of BDI)
Imposing trade barriers, imposing protectionist measures between our two countries - or between the two political centres, the European Union on the one hand and the UK on the other - would be a very, very foolish thing in the 21st Century,
So vote 'stay' because exiting the EU will impose trade barriers one way or another even though they are not intended that way. Think about taxes, import tarifs, visa, product safety regulations, etc, etc. All these will need to be contained within new treaties and there will be problems for sure if the UK wants to use different product safety regulations than mainland Europe. If the UK exits they basically have to follow product safety rules (they could choose to adopt the ones from the US) they cannot influence. Ofcourse they could try and set their own but that would make the products the UK imports more expensive due to needing extra testing.

I'd rather have democracy thanks.

The result of the Dutch people voting the wrong way Why we should ban referenda on EU policies (http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/opinion/why-we-should-ban-referenda-on-eu-policies/)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: doobedoobedo on June 22, 2016, 11:51:30 pm
Brexit is then sort of poor jobless brit's against middle class wealthy brit's!
I didn't realise we'd been fucked by the EU even worse than Greece.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Marco on June 23, 2016, 12:40:38 am
The result of the Dutch people voting the wrong way Why we should ban referenda on EU policies (http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/opinion/why-we-should-ban-referenda-on-eu-policies/)

Because the EU absolutely must be able to negotiate international treaties, national sovereignty absolutely must die, there is absolutely no alternative.

I hope they get their smug shit pushed in soon as we all elect populists, before they ruin Europe and get on their planes and boats heading towards US/Canada/NZ/Australia going "oh well we tried, but the bigoted natives just were too discriminatory and that's why it all went wrong" as the now majority immigrants riot in a collapsing economy.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: lemmegraphdat on June 23, 2016, 02:21:54 am
Get out. The ruling class can swivel on it.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Stonent on June 23, 2016, 04:36:56 am
Trump is a textbook demagogue: everything he says is designed to engage with people's emotions, fears and prejudices rather than their brains.

Very much the same tactics being used by both sides of the Brexit campaign, in fact.

What action did Trump took made him a demagogue?  What did he say that made him a demagogue?  Give me a quote please.
As enjoyable as it might be, this thread is not the appropriate place for a protracted discussion of Donald Trump's verbal excretions.

If you cannot cite a quote, it is baseless.  Why then do you see this as an appropriate place for you to throw verbal bombs and baseless accusations?

 :-+
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 23, 2016, 06:28:01 am


But these drunken idiots is what some one here said was " self-supporting retirees with pensions to spend".. :)

no - mostly package holiday tours....
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 23, 2016, 06:44:09 am
I note that our informal poll is now showing a slight preference to remain, although our European colleagues still want rid of us :)

Talking of the Ex-Pats I wonder how well they have been represented in the opinion polls so far. One would assume that Brits living in Europe would be heavily biased towards remaining in the EU. Not least of which because of fears that their residency status would become uncertain - my understanding is that they would retain their residency rights but this has come up once or twice in the debate.

However many there are, be it 700,000 or 300,000 in Spain, 170,000 in France, 100,000 in Germany etc.  there are certainly enough to swing a 50:50 vote in the UK to a decent "Remain" majority overall.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: continuo on June 23, 2016, 07:33:15 am
Well, Ladies and Gentlemen, today is the day, the polling stations are open, pick your choice, make your decision... And let it be a wise one... (http://forum.cycling4fans.de/imagesdez03/smilies/neue/hoffen.gif)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETveS23djXM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETveS23djXM)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 23, 2016, 07:36:58 am
This referendum is advisory only, not really binding right?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: DimitriP on June 23, 2016, 07:54:32 am
This referendum is advisory only, not really binding right?

Right. It's just a suggestion :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 23, 2016, 08:19:29 am
This referendum is advisory only, not really binding right?

Right. It's just a suggestion :)
Depends who you believe
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 23, 2016, 08:27:30 am
What if it is 50/50 or close to that, probably nothing will happen?  :-//
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: AndyC_772 on June 23, 2016, 08:35:17 am
I believe a simple majority is all that's required one way or the other. We just have to hope that an odd number of people turn out to vote!

Speaking of which... back soon  8)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: DimitriP on June 23, 2016, 08:42:10 am
I haven't found one place/reference that claims it's legaly binding.

Fun read: http://www.businessinsider.com/green-eu-referendum-not-legally-binding-brexit-2016-6 (http://www.businessinsider.com/green-eu-referendum-not-legally-binding-brexit-2016-6)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_the_United_Kingdom (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_the_United_Kingdom)

although he tried ... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-europe-referendum-idUSKBN0EQ0PD20140615 (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-europe-referendum-idUSKBN0EQ0PD20140615)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 23, 2016, 09:20:37 am
There is no way under the British constitution to make a referendum legally binding, as Parliament, being sovereign, can always reverse its previous decision.   That said, if there was a big majority one way it would be politically impossible to ignore it, at least without another referendum.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 23, 2016, 09:23:41 am
That said, if there was a big majority one way it would be politically impossible to ignore it
not impossible but it will probably be political suicide.  ;)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 23, 2016, 09:33:07 am
Been and voted!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 23, 2016, 09:49:14 am
Been and voted!
+1, only 46,499,535 votes to go :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: daqq on June 23, 2016, 10:25:57 am
Quote
I haven't found one place/reference that claims it's legaly binding.
It's not legally binding... that said it might not be a great idea to not comply with legally gained explicit will of a majority of your population.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 23, 2016, 10:32:53 am
Quote
I haven't found one place/reference that claims it's legaly binding.
It's not legally binding... that said it might not be a great idea to not comply with legally gained explicit will of a majority of your population.

Indeed!!!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rch on June 23, 2016, 10:47:22 am
Quote
I haven't found one place/reference that claims it's legaly binding.
It's not legally binding... that said it might not be a great idea to not comply with legally gained explicit will of a majority of your population.

Indeed!!!

Hence the S.O.P. of holding repeated referenda until you get the result you want!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Galenbo on June 23, 2016, 11:42:15 am
Why? We're all going to stay befriended nations, whatever the outcome. Everyone will do their best to make the situation after the vote work.
Of course. Import and export will go on like before. Will be transported and payed as before.
Some politicians and their bureaucracy of the +7 levels above me will have to adapt somewhat, quickly write some notes, and redefine some priorities.
No big changes are to be expected.

Pretty much everyone in the Remain camp has admitted that reform of the current EU is necessary.
Like 5,10,15 and 20 years ago. Voting for change/reform will give change/reform. But what change/reform?
If remain wins (let's say with 52%), they will get reform. A whole bunch of unreadable documents that makes referenda de-facto impossible.

What if it is 50/50 or close to that, probably nothing will happen?  :-//
It will be. The result will be within the fault margin that "counting votes" always has.
I also would prefer a referendum with a very easy entrance exam, to keep the 10% complete idiots of both sides out.

I haven't found one place/reference that claims it's legaly binding.
So they still can get out, even if 55% votes remain :-)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 23, 2016, 02:00:17 pm
That said, if there was a big majority one way it would be politically impossible to ignore it
not impossible but it will probably be political suicide.  ;)
I doubt it. The public's memory is short so they just wait and delay. Remember the referendum about Ukrain in the NL? I strongly doubt our parliament will honor the outcome.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 23, 2016, 02:15:59 pm
This thread's poll on the day of voting, for reference: 41/41/61/58
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 23, 2016, 02:49:18 pm
A new EU proposal calls for taxing automation:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 23, 2016, 04:48:19 pm
Quote
But Spain have collapsed, Barcelona wants out of Spain. ;)

The  zone metropolitan of Barcelona don't want out the Spain neither Tarragona that the zone more industrializing from this region(aproximately 5 Millions from 7Millions)   while the Deep Catalonia  or hicks are who wants out the Spain

And this region had a President very very stupid as Cameron that liked referendums and elections every two years(4 times on less 6 years). He have destroyed his coalition ,sank two traditionals parties(CDC and Unio) and a anti-system party(CUP) .

The consequence for Catalonia a uncontable debt(aproximately 700M €) .they don't pay to the pharmaceuticals corporations,hospitas etc .And Spain have to borrow money to EU for paying the catalonia debts.

While they go opening  Catalonia ambassadorship with a cost 1M€ for month with the money from catalonia kidnapped,the spanish and all the  European countries ,inclusive the british.



Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: AndyC_772 on June 23, 2016, 05:05:11 pm
A new EU proposal calls for taxing automation:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY)

Oh, bloody marvellous. Please, someone show these people around a factory before they start trying to decide that a "robot" is a new thing that can be taxed and regulated.

It'll be like a biologist trying to define what is alive and what isn't. Is a CNC mill a robot? Or a pick & place machine? Or does it have to have red glowing eyes and demand your clothes, your boots and your motorcycle?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 23, 2016, 05:41:13 pm
Quote
A new EU proposal calls for taxing automation:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY)

I doubt that they put this tax because euro-parlaments have to face with the german industrials lobbies and if the euro-parlament put  fools ,the lobbies have mechanism for changing their intention.

(As the classic joke from dentsit and the client, when the client catches the nuts dentist's and he says "Aren't  we  going to hurt  us?")
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: bitslice on June 23, 2016, 07:12:45 pm
A new EU proposal calls for taxing automation:

An intelligent robot does not necessarily require a human form to be considered a person,
by that reasoning we should therefore expect a robot cat tax.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VBEF2GjCPw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VBEF2GjCPw)


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 23, 2016, 07:40:45 pm
Quote
An intelligent robot does not necessarily require a human form to be considered a person,
by that reasoning we should therefore expect a robot cat tax.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VBEF2GjCPw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VBEF2GjCPw)

So , we shall have a tax for all types the robot , since cook robot , warehouse robot until the  military robot as the  systems anti-aircarft and the reload  systems.
 
it hasn't any  sense and it would be very difficult for applying
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: apis on June 23, 2016, 07:57:35 pm
Any guesstimates when the preliminary results will be in? if both sides are about 50% I'm guessing it can take all night?

A new EU proposal calls for taxing automation:
"proposal" being the operative word...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 23, 2016, 09:10:47 pm
About 5 or 6 minutes after the polls (real) have CLOSED in the UK, I took the results here:

tl;dr
Almost EXACTLY neck and neck.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 23, 2016, 09:20:48 pm
Any guesstimates when the preliminary results will be in? if both sides are about 50% I'm guessing it can take all night?

Yes, all night, results Friday morning. No exit polls.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 23, 2016, 09:43:23 pm
First poll on Belgian radio:52% remain
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 23, 2016, 09:55:14 pm
Second poll: 54% remain
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 23, 2016, 11:21:03 pm
LEAVE is in the lead by 3,207 votes out of hundreds of thousands of votes. But LEAVE is probably looking in the lead, so far.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 23, 2016, 11:37:16 pm
LEAVE is in the lead by 3,207 votes out of hundreds of thousands of votes. But LEAVE is probably looking in the lead, so far.
As expected by the betting odds > 75% for Remain.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 23, 2016, 11:41:36 pm
LEAVE is in the lead by 3,207 votes out of hundreds of thousands of votes. But LEAVE is probably looking in the lead, so far.
As expected by the betting odds > 75% for Remain.

Who cares about the betting odds ?

My result (50.5% LEAVE), is the ACTUAL vote counts (so far).

It is still TOO CLOSE to call reliably, so we will have to see . . . ..........
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 23, 2016, 11:46:13 pm
Now REMAIN is back in the lead. (By almost 20K votes)
We will have to just wait and see.

EDIT:
Now LEAVE is back in the lead.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 24, 2016, 12:17:56 am
Exciting to watch, I have to say.

The Trump-Clinton fight is also going to be interesting too.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: mtdoc on June 24, 2016, 12:28:59 am
No need to watch the polls, just watch THIS (http://www.forexlive.com/livecharts?tvwidgetsymbol=FX%3AGBPUSD) and you'll know the up to date direction that the vote is swinging. Click on the "1" in the top left corner of the chart to get the 1 minute candle view.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 24, 2016, 12:29:37 am
A new EU proposal calls for taxing automation:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY)

Oh, bloody marvellous. Please, someone show these people around a factory before they start trying to decide that a "robot" is a new thing that can be taxed and regulated.

It'll be like a biologist trying to define what is alive and what isn't. Is a CNC mill a robot? Or a pick & place machine? Or does it have to have red glowing eyes and demand your clothes, your boots and your motorcycle?

Maybe if we ever get to the "Bicentennial Man" level they could look at social security - but there's a whole sheaf of issues there.

As for taxing automation, per se, the only reason I can think of is to fund unemployment benefits and retraining for human jobs that have been replaced by automation.  Seems a bit of a cop out to me.  Creating new jobs is way better.  That's not easy - but, then, life is a challenge.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 24, 2016, 01:05:38 am
I note that our informal poll is now showing a slight preference to remain, although our European colleagues still want rid of us :)

Talking of the Ex-Pats I wonder how well they have been represented in the opinion polls so far. One would assume that Brits living in Europe would be heavily biased towards remaining in the EU. Not least of which because of fears that their residency status would become uncertain - my understanding is that they would retain their residency rights but this has come up once or twice in the debate.

However many there are, be it 700,000 or 300,000 in Spain, 170,000 in France, 100,000 in Germany etc.  there are certainly enough to swing a 50:50 vote in the UK to a decent "Remain" majority overall.

Gibraltars: only 823 for leave! Falklands perhaps are more of a vote in for Argentina! :)

Check out the peculiar poll stations! brilliant! ^-^  ............Forged pens!  ;D

Concerns: A poll released this week revealed that many Leave campaigners fear that today's referendum is rigged against them - so many are bringing their own pens

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3655775/The-polls-finally-open-Britain-s-historic-Referendum-vote-latest-polls-Remain-camp-lead-six-points-weather-swing-Brexit.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3655775/The-polls-finally-open-Britain-s-historic-Referendum-vote-latest-polls-Remain-camp-lead-six-points-weather-swing-Brexit.html)

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/23/14/3595626E00000578-3656309-ub_landlord_Ray_Seavers_pulls_pints_in_The_Bush_Inn_in_the_small-m-71_1466688470713.jpg)
(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/23/14/359650A300000578-3656309-image-a-83_1466689458915.jpg)
 
(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/06/23/19/359621BD00000578-3655775-_usepens_Twitter_is_full_of_messages_urging_people_to_vote_with_-a-67_1466706435851.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: gnavigator1007 on June 24, 2016, 01:41:04 am
Anybody else watching via brexitclub.eu?  Interesting discussion so far
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 24, 2016, 02:16:13 am

Who cares about the betting odds ?

My result (50.5% LEAVE), is the ACTUAL vote counts (so far).

It is still TOO CLOSE to call reliably, so we will have to see . . . ..........

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 24, 2016, 02:21:09 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

The point is/was that BETTING is a POOR way of judging the outcome.
It shows what people THINK will happen, rather than statistically analyzing (e.g. Polls), what is likely to happen.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 24, 2016, 02:49:33 am
Looking like a Brexit it is.

Of course it could change, but around 04:00 GMT, some of the big cities are in (Edinburgh, which is most of Scotland) and turnout has been lower than expected in the remain areas, and win margins have been lower.

On the flip side, in places like Newcastle, the vote was MUCH closer than expected, and in some leave areas, the win was by a substantially higher margin than expected.

News reports from some insiders are that the UK gov't is anticipating an Brexit win, and on the BBC news they are reporting the leave campaign are saying they believe they have likely won.

The big unknown is London - where a huge number of the population of Britain lives.  That outweighs Scotland, Wales and all the non-contiguous lands.  On the other hand, Northern England has swung Brexit quite a lot harder than it was expected.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 24, 2016, 03:02:11 am


The point is/was that BETTING is a POOR way of judging the outcome.
It shows what people THINK will happen, rather than statistically analyzing (e.g. Polls), what is likely to happen.

The polls are already factored in the betting odds.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 24, 2016, 03:06:41 am


The point is/was that BETTING is a POOR way of judging the outcome.
It shows what people THINK will happen, rather than statistically analyzing (e.g. Polls), what is likely to happen.

The polls are already factored in the betting odds.

I'm NOT a big fan of betting odds.

It was realized and generally accepted, that in this case the polls were too close to call (before the day of voting), so there was not really a reliable source of information (BEFOREHAND), as regards the overall outcome. (Assuming time machines etc are not applicable).
tl;dr
Polls were just about neck and neck, so overall result was both unknown and difficult to predict. Although Remain was a tiny/small fraction ahead in the polls, typically.

Even now (this exact second), although Leave/Brexit is winning. It is still NOT certain.
But probably Leave/Brexit will win, I guess.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Macbeth on June 24, 2016, 03:11:13 am
No need to watch the polls, just watch THIS (http://www.forexlive.com/livecharts?tvwidgetsymbol=FX%3AGBPUSD) and you'll know the up to date direction that the vote is swinging. Click on the "1" in the top left corner of the chart to get the 1 minute candle view.
Fucking hell, I'm only glad I got some gold in the swiss bullionvault to counteract this huge drop... 1.50 to 1.35 !!! crazy! Meanwhile betfair was really slow on the uptake with 1.5 for remain vs 3 for leave. I did gamble a few quid on brexit a good week ago.

Just checked and remain is now 10.0 remain vs 1.1 on betfair so they have finally woke up!

Haha! Take that Rompuy and your unleaded solder!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 24, 2016, 03:40:29 am
It's OFFICIAL now. (Source BBC live).

Leave/Brexit has won.

Remain CAN'T win now, as it can't have enough votes.

EDIT: Or I'm misunderstanding. The BBC forecasts that Leave/Brexit has won.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tautech on June 24, 2016, 03:54:50 am
It's OFFICIAL now. (Source BBC live).

Leave/Brexit has won.

Remain CAN'T win now, as it can't have enough votes.
First looked at this thread today and it's 37 pages.  :o

I clearly remember the disgust of my parents and grandparents 45+ years ago when the UK joined the EEC, then  many of the primary producers in NZ felt disgusted too having supported the mother country in 2 world wars we felt abandoned and our exports to the UK diminished over the decades to the point that even now they are less than they were decades ago. There were some small benefits for us, we were no longer obliged to import crappy British cars in the numbers of before.
Now the UK's experiment seems over  :-//  and european domination has not eventuated I wonder where their allegiances will lie now.  :popcorn:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: mtdoc on June 24, 2016, 03:58:58 am

A few days ago the head of political betting at Ladbrokes said the betting odds were being skewed by a smaller number but much larger sized bets on remain. 75% of money was on remain but much more were betting on Leave - so that may explain some of the discrepancy.

If this result holds it remains to seen if Brexit actually happens. Remember the Greeks voted for a Grexit...

Regardless, the reaction of the financial markets lays bare the larger issue here:  Despite the focus of the media on the immigration issue, the real issue for the elites is that a Brexit means they are losing control of the masses and their ability to control commerce and capital. If Brexit happens it will likely mean the beginning of the end of ability of the ECB (and US Fed as well) to control and contain events.  Whether you see that as a good or bad thing depends on your perspective - -  tolerance for short term economic pain in order to preserve the longer term viability of free markets versus hoping that the last 8 years of debt fueled monetary kool-aid will somehow be able to be maintained indefinitely.

I'm in the former camp.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 24, 2016, 04:11:31 am
First looked at this thread today and it's 37 pages.  :o

I clearly remember the disgust of my parents and grandparents 45+ years ago when the UK joined the EEC, then  many of the primary producers in NZ felt disgusted too having supported the mother country in 2 world wars we felt abandoned and our exports to the UK diminished over the decades to the point that even now they are less than they were decades ago. There were some small benefits for us, we were no longer obliged to import crappy British cars in the numbers of before.
Now the UK's experiment seems over  :-//  and european domination has not eventuated I wonder where their allegiances will lie now.  :popcorn:

Yes, I'm embarrassed with how terrible some of those early cars were. Apparently it was a combination of bad management and the work force being very dis-interested in doing a good job (some blame the unions).

This result may change future allegiances, so maybe New Zealand will benefit from this.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 24, 2016, 04:14:15 am
If this result holds it remains to seen if Brexit actually happens. Remember the Greeks voted for a Grexit...

It would not surprise me either.

The vote (so far), is rather close (probably less than 52% (approx) leave), and it is badly damaging to the EU. The British Prime minister (David Cameron) was keen to Remain.

So there could be some kind of attempt to keep the EU together, maybe with new offers/changes or something. Because the EU is also worried that other major EU player countries may also get referendums, which may also choose to leave. Potentially dramatically changing the EU.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 24, 2016, 04:16:36 am
Bookmakers' odds DO NOT reflect the probability of an outcome.  They reflect how the bookie is needing to balance his book.

A bookie aims to have the correct amount of money on each outcome such as that he always makes a profit (due to the overround).  If too much money is going on result A, the odds are decreased to discourage money going that way, and increase on B to tempt money that way to balance the book.

Source.  My Uncle was a bookie all his life, I remember being taught this as a kid  :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: ez24 on June 24, 2016, 04:19:20 am
I guess the end of the world is near
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 24, 2016, 04:20:20 am
The British Prime minister (David Cameron) was keen to Remain.



Nah, Dave is a Brexiteer, as is Jezza.  They were both brow-beaten into pretending to want to stay.  They will both be pleased with this result.  :)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 24, 2016, 04:20:39 am
Bookmakers' odds DO NOT reflect the probability of an outcome.  They reflect how the bookie is needing to balance his book.

A bookie aims to have the correct amount of money on each outcome such as that he always makes a profit (due to the overround).  If too much money is going on result A, the odds are decreased to discourage money going that way, and increase on B to tempt money that way to balance the book.

Source.  My Uncle was a bookie all his life, I remember being taught this as a kid  :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking

That's exactly what I thought. I've seen amazing horse racing mechanical (computer like) machines, which automatically make the adjustments to the "odds", during the betting, before races. (Probably a TV program).

tl;dr
It does NOT represent the true statistical probabilities.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MK14 on June 24, 2016, 04:25:35 am
The British Prime minister (David Cameron) was keen to Remain.



Nah, Dave is a Brexiteer, as is Jezza.  They were both brow-beaten into pretending to want to stay.  They will both be pleased with this result.  :)

I would NOT be surprised if Jezza wants to leave.

But surely Dave wants to remain.

E.g. Source:

Quote
EU referendum: I'm no secret Brexiteer, says David Cameron

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36396066 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36396066)

EDIT:
On the other hand. Some sources say/think he has been lying, about things like immigration (figures). So you could be right.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 24, 2016, 04:26:42 am
I guess the end of the world is near
The potential downside if we go through with it is, ahem, rather large.

We could just have done the most monumentally stupid thing in recent political history.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: ez24 on June 24, 2016, 04:28:14 am
Black Friday tomorrow  :-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: JPortici on June 24, 2016, 04:46:13 am
what if..
 :-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Towger on June 24, 2016, 04:48:56 am
In the words of Anne Robinson ' Goodbye '.

BBC 4 Are busy going through who should resign, and if Scotland and Northern Ireland should have their own referendum to leave the UK.

Meanwhile I am getting push notifications from RTE that sterling has fallen to a 30+ year low.

Interesting time a head.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Macbeth on June 24, 2016, 05:06:34 am
Please welcome us back Kiwis, Ozzies, and Hosers. Let's not forget the West Indies, Hong Kong, India, most of Africa, and all the other former colonies (USA too!). Let's get back to a commonwealth trading partnership without EU intervention.  :-+
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tautech on June 24, 2016, 05:12:14 am
Please welcome us back Kiwis, Ozzies, and Hosers. Let's not forget the West Indies, Hong Kong, India, most of Africa, and all the other former colonies (USA too!). Let's get back to a commonwealth trading partnership without EU intervention.  :-+
:-DD
What have you got to offer.....not immigrants I hope.  :scared:
Better cars?  :-\
Kate's sister.  :-+
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Macbeth on June 24, 2016, 05:15:17 am
Please welcome us back Kiwis, Ozzies, and Hosers. Let's not forget the West Indies, Hong Kong, India, most of Africa, and all the other former colonies (USA too!). Let's get back to a commonwealth trading partnership without EU intervention.  :-+
:-DD
What have you got to offer.....not immigrants I hope.  :scared:
Better cars?  :-\
Kate's sister.  :-+
Dolly the sheep?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Mr.B on June 24, 2016, 05:18:02 am
^ Crash.

(Is this the one word game?)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 24, 2016, 05:20:08 am
Bookmakers' odds DO NOT reflect the probability of an outcome.  They reflect how the bookie is needing to balance his book.

A bookie aims to have the correct amount of money on each outcome such as that he always makes a profit (due to the overround).  If too much money is going on result A, the odds are decreased to discourage money going that way, and increase on B to tempt money that way to balance the book.

Source.  My Uncle was a bookie all his life, I remember being taught this as a kid  :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking

Bookies.... Insurance companies.... it's all the same.  They have a business to run.  Since it all revolves around money. they must make sure they make a profit no matter which way events unfold.

I thought it was obvious any outcome was not - and could not be - influenced by the location of money.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 24, 2016, 05:21:37 am
Never seen a McLaren 650S ?

Only on Top Gear.  :(
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tautech on June 24, 2016, 05:22:56 am
Please welcome us back Kiwis, Ozzies, and Hosers. Let's not forget the West Indies, Hong Kong, India, most of Africa, and all the other former colonies (USA too!). Let's get back to a commonwealth trading partnership without EU intervention.  :-+
:-DD
What have you got to offer.....not immigrants I hope.  :scared:
Better cars?  :-\
Kate's sister.  :-+

Never seen a McLaren 650S ?
Probably have with Clarkson's fat bum in it.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Macbeth on June 24, 2016, 05:25:02 am
I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath :palm:

I wonder if the remain politicos pushing that one really thought it was a good way of swaying the vote their way... Shows how out of touch they are... Normal people don't think insane house prices are good because they have to live in them and have to pay more to move into new ones. Their kids can't afford to move out.

Only feckless fuckwits who use the house as a line of credit and the brilliant rentier class "entrepreneurs" think insane house prices are a good thing.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: vodka on June 24, 2016, 05:37:10 am
This a golden opportunity for giving shelter to corporation who following to trade with CEE.

Spain are sold  :-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: zapta on June 24, 2016, 05:39:43 am
Money

The worst it get, the better excuse the politicians will have to not actually enact an exit (remember, this is an advisory referendum). There is a clear interest for some forces to make it as bad as possible to drive a point. We had something similar here with budget sequestration in 2013.

This battle was won but the war is not over yet.

Anyway, hats off to the British people for the courage to defend the sovereignty of their country once again, this time despite their leaders.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 24, 2016, 05:50:22 am
I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath :palm:

I wonder if the remain politicos pushing that one really thought it was a good way of swaying the vote their way... Shows how out of touch they are... Normal people don't think insane house prices are good because they have to live in them and have to pay more to move into new ones. Their kids can't afford to move out.

Only feckless fuckwits who use the house as a line of credit and the brilliant rentier class "entrepreneurs" think insane house prices are a good thing.
Oh, house prices will fall allright.

They will fall because of the huge recession that we have just imposed upon ourselves - in a recession no one much wants to move unless they have to and low demand leads to low prices.

That is not the same as solving the housing crisis FFS.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 24, 2016, 05:54:45 am
In any case this is a big signal to the EU that they should think about the future and that a lot of people are fed up with their unlimited expansion and ambitions without consolidating now and then. There are indeed enough problems as is and a strong country like the Uk leaving will not make it easier.
The negotiations for leaving will not become easy since it probably will be used as a signal back to other eu countries not to consider to leave as well which would be a poor blackmail scam if you ask me personally.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Delta on June 24, 2016, 06:01:46 am
Oh, house prices will fall allright.

They will fall because of the huge recession that we have just imposed upon ourselves - in a recession no one much wants to move unless they have to and low demand leads to low prices.

That is not the same as solving the housing crisis FFS.

Oh get a grip of yourself. FFS.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 24, 2016, 06:43:15 am
EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 24, 2016, 06:56:38 am
EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.

Seems a bit premature, doesn't it?

The vote is one thing - but they haven't left yet.


.... or am I missing something?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Macbeth on June 24, 2016, 07:15:27 am
Oh, house prices will fall allright.

They will fall because of the huge recession that we have just imposed upon ourselves - in a recession no one much wants to move unless they have to and low demand leads to low prices.

That is not the same as solving the housing crisis FFS.
The only recession that can possibly happen is the one you talk yourself into. George Osborne came up with an absurd "budget" - thankfully not one we have to vote for. But the markets appear to (for these couple of days) be playing along with his retarded fear mongering.

Clearly we have to get rid of shitty prime ministers and chancellors who have no idea how to run the country post a democratic withdrawal from the EU.

Meanwhile - every person, every business carries on as usual... All these Etonian political primadonnas really are just highly paid window dressing to the rest of the real world. Trade will carry on as usual. Even when it is declared by Rompuy & EU co as illegal, it will still carry on unimpeded (except in Germany - we have many accounts of the Gestapo customs there). I mean just like nobody stops anything from China despite a CE or C.E mark
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 24, 2016, 07:20:30 am
Seems a bit premature, doesn't it?
The vote is one thing - but they haven't left yet.
... or am I missing something?
Probably they want to meet and discuss what the next steps are and perhaps already a forecast for the conditions they are going to impose upon the UK for leaving.
They have to have consensus between themselves first before they can offer it to the UK.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 24, 2016, 07:24:12 am
The only recession that can possibly happen is the one you talk yourself into. George Osborne came up with an absurd "budget" - thankfully not one we have to vote for. But the markets appear to (for these couple of days) be playing along with his retarded fear mongering.
That is true of any recession.

I hope that you are right - that it is just an over-reaction and that the markets will correct in a few days, but it is not clear to me that is all it will take.

We will see what Cameron says in his statement. I don't see that he can survive as PM for very long but I really don't fancy the alternatives.

EDIT: Oh, that was prescient. I just saw that he has resigned.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 24, 2016, 08:03:22 am
EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.

Seems a bit premature, doesn't it?

The vote is one thing - but they haven't left yet.


.... or am I missing something?

Nope, it'll be a little while before we formally announce our intention.....
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: SteveyG on June 24, 2016, 08:05:30 am
I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath :palm:

Falling house prices is the last thing we need.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kjelt on June 24, 2016, 08:05:38 am
EDIT: Oh, that was prescient. I just saw that he has resigned.
There goes your last straw of goodwill in the EU for the exit negotiations.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: tggzzz on June 24, 2016, 08:12:55 am
Turkeys do vote for Christmas.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 24, 2016, 08:19:31 am
I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath :palm:

Falling house prices is the last thing we need.
We need the heat to come out of the housing market, just not this way.

EDIT: Oh, that was prescient. I just saw that he has resigned.
There goes your last straw of goodwill in the EU for the exit negotiations.
It was, I think, inevitable. At least a resignation is better for political stability than a vote of no confidence.

Turkeys do vote for Christmas.
And Americans for Trump

I feel I have had a Chinese curse (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times) enacted upon me
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 24, 2016, 08:20:45 am
Despite all my cynicism about the EU I actually voted to stay because: I don't like those who are on the leave campaign, there's always a great risk with any change and whilst we're still in the EU we can influence their rules.

However I'm not that devastated about leaving. Part of me wanted to vote leave, even though I've recently bought a house and will risk going into negative equity.

By the way: why is the closing date for this poll the 10th July? Perhaps it should be closed today.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 24, 2016, 08:25:00 am
Despite all my cynicism about the EU I actually voted to stay because: I don't like those who are on the leave campaign, there's always a great risk with any change and whilst we're still in the EU we can influence their rules.

However I'm not that devastated about leaving. Part of me wanted to vote leave, even though I've recently bought a house and will risk going into negative equity.

By the way: why is the closing date for this poll the 10th July? Perhaps it should be closed today.

Unfortunately I think a lot of votes were nothing to do with the issues and more to do with personalities...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: apis on June 24, 2016, 08:28:37 am
So we have a weaker EU. I know someone in Moscow that is going to be celebrating tonight. And a certain mr Trump as well.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: AntiProtonBoy on June 24, 2016, 08:47:07 am
Bunch of chavs wanting to live out the colonial power fantasies of the past.

 :palm: YOU DUN GOOFED BRITAIN

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 24, 2016, 09:09:15 am
Bunch of chavs wanting to live out the colonial power fantasies of the past.

 :palm: YOU DUN GOOFED BRITAIN

it's unfortunate that a bunch of lazy ass brits with no work ethic think they are voting to remove 'foreigners' taking jobs that they are too lazy to do anyway. What they fail to understand it that it will have no effect and it never would. f*ing idiots!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 24, 2016, 09:23:19 am
EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.

And the French at least will be keen to punish the UK pour encourager les autres.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Corporate666 on June 24, 2016, 09:26:04 am
Funny, for as much as it's the Remain crowd that accuses the Leave voters as being intolerant, hateful, bigoted and angry... it seems the anger in this thread is only from the Remain folk.

I notice the same on other forums.  I hear the same words and same sentiments... racists!  idiots!  xenphobes!  They have set us back years!  Worldwide economic collapse is nigh!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 24, 2016, 09:41:13 am
Funny, for as much as it's the Remain crowd that accuses the Leave voters as being intolerant, hateful, bigoted and angry... it seems the anger in this thread is only from the Remain folk.
Prior to the result, some Leave campaigners undoubtedly were intolerant, hateful and bigoted. This tended to put the many who weren't any of those things on the back foot when it came to exchanging insults.

This morning there is unlikely to be much anger from the Leave camp; they are too busy celebrating.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: RGB255_0_0 on June 24, 2016, 09:44:38 am
Well done! Idiots.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: daqq on June 24, 2016, 09:48:46 am
Found this on facebook today  ;D
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: apis on June 24, 2016, 09:49:28 am
EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.
And the French at least will be keen to punish the UK pour encourager les autres.
Not so much punish as not being able to give the UK any special treatment. If others notice they can leave and get a good deal out of it that would send the wrong signal (from the EU perspective), so EU can't afford to give the UK easy access to the inner market, for example. It will suck both for EU and the UK so no-one is going to do it out of malice.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 24, 2016, 09:59:34 am
Nicely done, British voters.

Now, see how the remain campaign is unable to follow its own advise to others: to behave like civilized and tolerant and welcoming people.

:)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 24, 2016, 09:59:54 am
I'm not surprised looking at the results, I had a feeling that the vote would be regional, with the relatively prospersous south voting to remain and less well off areas voting to leave. I suspect the whole immigration issue played a big part unfortunately, in or out of the EU immigration isn't going to change. I also suspect that some Labour voters have become disillusioned and shifted their allegiance.
British politics has sunken to an all time low and there will be another round of complete bull shit from all parties in the up and coming general election.
Will EDF cancell or moth ball Hinkley Point, it's run into serious engineering issues, will the Swansea tidal barage be scrapped.  Those are only two major engineering projects I could think of, we will have to wait and see.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 24, 2016, 10:00:41 am
EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.

And the French at least will be keen to punish the UK pour encourager les autres.
The EU wasn't a jail for UK. You'll be let out politely. And the negotiations will aim to set up good relations with an important market and country outside of the union.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: jancumps on June 24, 2016, 10:06:39 am
EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.

Seems a bit premature, doesn't it?

The vote is one thing - but they haven't left yet.


.... or am I missing something?

UK will be part of the summit. But the first meetings without UK are planned during the summit.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Towger on June 24, 2016, 10:13:25 am


Worldwide economic collapse is nigh!

Don't worry Mr D. Trump is in Scotland proclaiming his and America's support for independent Britain when he becomes president.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Brumby on June 24, 2016, 10:26:51 am
Seems stock markets around the world are going apeshit.

Another premature reaction, IMO.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: apis on June 24, 2016, 10:27:47 am
Worldwide economic collapse is nigh!
Don't worry Mr D. Trump is in Scotland proclaiming his and America's support for independent Britain when he becomes president.
No doubt, Britain can count on President V. Putin as well!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: madires on June 24, 2016, 10:36:07 am
I feel very sorry for those who wanted to stay in the EU. I know several British, mostly former colleagues and contractors. It's so :palm:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: HackedFridgeMagnet on June 24, 2016, 10:45:19 am
Ignorant outsider here.
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but its a long thread.

UK already had monetary independence.
So what will be the differences? Especially the economic ones which were campaigned upon.
Need to negotiate trade deals?
Tax laws suddenly changeing?
No freedom to work across the Channel.
IDK.

also. Do you think the catchy 'BREXIT' was worth a percentage point to the leavers?


Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Buriedcode on June 24, 2016, 10:55:44 am
I have been tempted to post here for weeks - not that I intended to (or could) influence anyone.  But I genuinely believed it would go in favour of remaining.  Imagine my surprise when I flipped on the TV this morning :(

The reason I think many 'remainians' have been hostile is because of frustration at the same old arguments from the other side: "need to curb immigration", "EU pushing us around", "We want Britain to be great again!" and the result will only impact on one of those (clue, its not the first or third). The worst was several neighbours (who are retired) claiming they wanted Britain to be like it was when they were growing up.  I had to bite my lip because I couldn't believe relatively intelligent people honestly think we can go back in time.  And I don't see why the EU would try to stop refugees or dare I say 'illegal' immigrants leaving the EU, they're far more concerned with them entering and moving around within it.  So if anything, surely it would make it harder for the UK to 'stem the tide' (that is of course assuming that we get "too many" despite no official figures coming out from either camp, it is merely assumed that its too much and damaging to our economy, when for the most part all the evidence I've seen points to the contrary http://iasservices.org.uk/how-does-immigration-benefit-the-uk/ (http://iasservices.org.uk/how-does-immigration-benefit-the-uk/)).

I think the UK government will fight to remain in the EU single market, but what happens in the interim I haven't read any predictions except it will have to trade under the WTO rules. 

I'm fairly sure the vast majority of voters, from either side, didn't actually know what to expect which is why the campaign to leave was so loud and nationalist, and the leavers scare mongering - the powers that be were uncertain, and so fell back on the main driving force of public voting - short sighted, emotional and political persuasions.   The trouble with referendums is they must take a very complicated issue with all manner of possible consequences and break it down to a 'yes/no'. Some have stuck by the 'well, its simple, we're either in, or out!' and these are the people - those who think everything is black and white - that piss me off the most.  So they might as well have just flipped a coin. 

Ultimately the public is responsible for what the government does, but I'm willing to bet, just like in government.. if things go well those who voted to leave will be loud, if things don't - they'll refuse to accept responsibility, claim they were misled or simply keep quiet.  And its likely that it'll be a heady mix of both. 

I'm curious as to what little known or relatively minor laws/restrictions the EU impose on the UK will change, and what will come of it.  Will all the problems people have with Brussels, they did stand firm with regards to Google, Microsoft, and Apple, and also capped the charges phones companies make.  I guess we'll find out in the following few years!
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: onesixright on June 24, 2016, 10:58:02 am
To call victory when you barley have a majority isn't a victory imo. Its means still a lot of people are disagreeing. That goes both ways.

Democracy is nice and cool, if your on the side of the majority.


Lets hope something positive comes out of it...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Buriedcode on June 24, 2016, 10:59:08 am
... Do you think the catchy 'BREXIT' was worth a percentage point to the leavers?

Yes.  Lord knows we're a fickle bunch, I'm willing to bet "celebrities" also played a huge part on both sides.  Sorry for the cynicism but when it comes to 'entering the poll booth' I swear people forget almost everything except buzzwords.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: rolycat on June 24, 2016, 11:02:21 am
So what will be the differences?

I don't think anyone has any real idea what the consequences will be, which is why the financial markets are in such turmoil.

Boris Johnson, one of the leading Brexiteers, has just made what he no doubt hopes is a statesmanlike speech emphasising his desire for the United Kingdom to remain very much a part of Europe.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: AndyC_772 on June 24, 2016, 11:04:21 am
Not so much punish as not being able to give the UK any special treatment. If others notice they can leave and get a good deal out of it that would send the wrong signal (from the EU perspective), so EU can't afford to give the UK easy access to the inner market, for example. It will suck both for EU and the UK so no-one is going to do it out of malice.

I think this is one of the great dangers; that politicians in all countries will make decisions that "send out a signal that...", or allow them to "be seen to be doing...", or in which they are "thought of as..." whatever. Never mind what the actual issues are, or the real, solid, practical consequences for those affected. It's all about wanting to be thought of as seen to be sending out whatever kind of message is politically fashionable this week.  |O :palm:

We've already seen a lot of this in the run-up to the vote. We (the UK) have heard "you still won't get such-and-such", or "if you leave, you won't have this, that or the other", or "we won't let you do <whatever>". It's exasperating. So many people all indvidually trying to save face, or to send out another sodding 'message'.

The decision has been taken. Our pro-EU PM has declared he'll resign, and no doubt others will follow. Now can we please just get on and negotiate how best to proceed from here without all the bluff and bluster?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: StuUK on June 24, 2016, 11:16:51 am

I'm curious as to what little known or relatively minor laws/restrictions the EU impose on the UK will change, and what will come of it.  Will all the problems people have with Brussels, they did stand firm with regards to Google, Microsoft, and Apple, and also capped the charges phones companies make.  I guess we'll find out in the following few years!

The main ones will stay as they are already enshrined under UK law, they don't suddenly disappear... There are some several thousand smaller regs that will need to be revisited.

Did you vote?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Augustus on June 24, 2016, 11:22:44 am
Applause from master moron Trump and the Kremlin, that's the moment when you realize you messed it up big time. Congrats Brits, I'm sure the grass outside of the EU will be much greener and rainbows everywhere. Best of luck, Bye...  :palm:
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 24, 2016, 11:32:18 am
The decision has been taken. Our pro-EU PM has declared he'll resign, and no doubt others will follow. Now can we please just get on and negotiate how best to proceed from here without all the bluff and bluster?
The Scottish and Irish are already sharpening their knifes to become independant from the UK in order to stay in the EU. What will Gibraltar do? This may as well be the end of the UK as we know it.

And even then seeing is believing. According to the news the EU wants the papers delivered next week but Mr Johnson wants to take things slower. Cameron made a smart move by resigning so he is not involved in the shit storm that is about to land.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Towger on June 24, 2016, 11:37:12 am
Appart from the companies who mainly trade in Europe, farmers will be the next most affected.  Many of them rely on yearly large handouts from Brussels.  For some it is up to 60% of their income.  This is what the bulk of the money paid to Europe is used for.  One can only assume these repayments will have to be replaced by local ones, if the government want to keep food prices etc at the same levels.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 24, 2016, 11:49:59 am
I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath :palm:

Falling house prices is the last thing we need.

Actually, where I live that's exactly what's needed. You need to be earning in excess of £150k to be able to afford a £500,000 mortgage on a studio apartment. That is largely due to speculative foreign investors, many of whom don't even rent out their places, they just sit on them, enjoying capital growth while looking forward to liquidating the asset at some time in the future. I am sure this is true for other hotspots around the world, I believe Australia actually brought in legislation to limit this kind of investment.

There is some fear around mortgage rates increasing while property prices decrease since the Brexit. A base rate increase has been on the cards for some time irrespective. What I would say though is that a correction at least gives more people a chance who'd otherwise not be in a such a position, largely irrespective of any base rate rise.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 24, 2016, 11:55:58 am
I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath :palm:

Falling house prices is the last thing we need.
Actually, where I live that's exactly what's needed. You need to be earning in excess of £150k to be able to afford a £500,000 mortgage on a studio apartment.
This is typical 'kicking against large capital' thinking. I'm quite sure there are only a handful of investors like this. For the majority of the home owners their retirement fund is their home. Falling house prices will mean many people will see their retirement fund go down the drain which in turn will have dire consequences for the (local) economy because these people will have much less to spend.

You'll also need to take inflation into account. My own home also increased in value but my interest rate has been less than 2% over the period (>10 years) I own it.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: AndyC_772 on June 24, 2016, 11:57:55 am
And even then seeing is believing. According to the news the EU wants the papers delivered next week but Mr Johnson wants to take things slower.

That's fine. I don't doubt for a moment that a speedy resolution would be perceived as best for the remaining EU members, but that's no longer the overriding concern. The whole point of the referendum was, after all, about regaining the ability for the UK - and not anyone else - to make decisions about what's best for the UK.

I suspect this will cease to be an issue once some of the individual people involved get over themselves.

Quote
Cameron made a smart move by resigning so he is not involved in the shit storm that is about to land.

Of course; we couldn't have a leader entrusted to do something he's so publicly spoken out against doing at all.

Not only that, but let's not forget that before the referendum he was sent to Europe to try and make a last ditch attempt to negotiate a better deal for the UK, but he came back empty handed. (Was this reported outside the UK at all? It was major news here).

Both he and other EU leaders knew the referendum was going to happen, and that if he didn't come back with enough really solid, worthwhile concessions to alleviate concerns back home, there was a good chance we'd vote to leave. Given the slim margin by which the 'leave' vote won, he wouldn't have had to sway many people.

Yet despite that, he failed, and IMHO that alone made him a poor choice to represent us in Europe.

Moreover, his failure also made it very clear that even when the threat of the UK leaving was looming, other EU leaders weren't prepared to listen and to accept the need for change. That first wake-up call didn't work. Maybe the second will?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 24, 2016, 12:01:34 pm
The decision has been taken. Our pro-EU PM has declared he'll resign, and no doubt others will follow. Now can we please just get on and negotiate how best to proceed from here without all the bluff and bluster?
With politicians involved? - unlikely.

Boris Johnson, one of the leading Brexiteers, has just made what he no doubt hopes is a statesmanlike speech emphasising his desire for the United Kingdom to remain very much a part of Europe.
We have just voted to leave, the campaign stressed the importance of controlling our own borders for which we need to leave pretty unambiguously - if we wind up with some EEA membership deal with acceptance of free movement of labour what have we actually achieved?

I note that Cameron has decided against invoking Article 50 immediately. That is not the position he took during the campaign.

While I felt that we should stay, and I still do, we have voted to leave. We should bloody well get on with it.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 24, 2016, 12:07:32 pm
Moreover, his failure also made it very clear that even when the threat of the UK leaving was looming, other EU leaders weren't prepared to listen and to accept the need for change. That first wake-up call didn't work. Maybe the second will?
What makes you think the EU can't work without the UK? In the end countries are free to leave and the UK already had a special status (like closed borders). At some point you have to say goodbye to one and other if you can't agree on terms to work together.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: kaz911 on June 24, 2016, 12:17:55 pm
Moreover, his failure also made it very clear that even when the threat of the UK leaving was looming, other EU leaders weren't prepared to listen and to accept the need for change. That first wake-up call didn't work. Maybe the second will?
What makes you think the EU can't work without the UK? In the end countries are free to leave and the UK already had a special status (like closed borders). At some point you have to say goodbye to one and other if you can't agree on terms to work together.

The wish to leave will spread. Politicians in other countries are already asking for referendums. And a lot of prior referendums have been run on fear and peoples fear of leaving - where now less people will worry so more referendums will vote leave.

I think the vote was stupid because it was Black & White (In/Out) - should have been "In/Out or Out unless EU reform" - but as the vote is only an advisory to the government and not legally binding  - UK could still chose to stay - but it would require some major rework of how EU works.

But lets see what happens once the dust settles. Right now the EU bosses are shaking in fear and coming up with all kind of demands to the UK and threats of retaliation.

But EU DESERVED a kick in the b*tt but got a kick in the b*lls

Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 24, 2016, 12:21:58 pm
So what will be the differences?

I don't think anyone has any real idea what the consequences will be, which is why the financial markets are in such turmoil.

Boris Johnson, one of the leading Brexiteers, has just made what he no doubt hopes is a statesmanlike speech emphasising his desire for the United Kingdom to remain very much a part of Europe.

Financial markets LOVE turmoil !!
That's when they make the most money.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kalvin on June 24, 2016, 12:24:10 pm
What do you think, will David Cameron become Sir David Cameron or not? That will tell everything.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: G0HZU on June 24, 2016, 12:24:43 pm
We're bound to come last in the Eurovision Song Contest next year...
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 24, 2016, 12:25:29 pm
The decision has been taken. Our pro-EU PM has declared he'll resign, and no doubt others will follow. Now can we please just get on and negotiate how best to proceed from here without all the bluff and bluster?
With politicians involved? - unlikely.

Boris Johnson, one of the leading Brexiteers, has just made what he no doubt hopes is a statesmanlike speech emphasising his desire for the United Kingdom to remain very much a part of Europe.
We have just voted to leave, the campaign stressed the importance of controlling our own borders for which we need to leave pretty unambiguously - if we wind up with some EEA membership deal with acceptance of free movement of labour what have we actually achieved?

I note that Cameron has decided against invoking Article 50 immediately. That is not the position he took during the campaign.

While I felt that we should stay, and I still do, we have voted to leave. We should bloody well get on with it.

That's what the eurocrats want.
Therefore it's smarter to use that as a negotiating lever.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: grumpydoc on June 24, 2016, 12:26:41 pm
What do you think, will David Cameron become Sir David Cameron or not? That will tell everything.
It's pretty much guaranteed as an Ex PM isn't it?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 24, 2016, 12:27:07 pm
Moreover, his failure also made it very clear that even when the threat of the UK leaving was looming, other EU leaders weren't prepared to listen and to accept the need for change. That first wake-up call didn't work. Maybe the second will?
What makes you think the EU can't work without the UK? In the end countries are free to leave and the UK already had a special status (like closed borders). At some point you have to say goodbye to one and other if you can't agree on terms to work together.
I think the vote was stupid because it was Black & White (In/Out) - should have been "In/Out or Out unless EU reform" - but as the vote is only an advisory to the government and not legally binding  - UK could still chose to stay - but it would require some major rework of how EU works.
Well the way it looks now the UK got itself in a huge mess and it is very unclear whether there really is a real advantage of the UK leaving. Yes, the people of the UK have full control over there country but what good does that do if that means having no work? Seeing your retirement fund go down the drain due to dropping house prices? Increased prices for food and fuel? Having to put up with whatever trading rules the US, EU, Russia,  China and OPEC dictate?
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: AndyC_772 on June 24, 2016, 12:28:28 pm
I think the vote was stupid because it was Black & White (In/Out) - should have been "In/Out or Out unless EU reform" - but as the vote is only an advisory to the government and not legally binding  - UK could still chose to stay - but it would require some major rework of how EU works.

But we'd already expressed the need for reform, and we were told 'no'.

A vote for "yes, we'll stay, but things really, really need to change now" would just have left politicians arguing for years to come over what constituted enough of a change, and nothing would ever happen besides further ill will and uncertainty.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: FrankD on June 24, 2016, 12:30:22 pm
The good ol' British sausages can now go back to less than 35% meat content.   :-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Homer J Simpson on June 24, 2016, 12:34:57 pm


UK votes to leave the UN.



(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CltTxWzWIAAe8bh.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 24, 2016, 12:39:04 pm
Quote
I think the UK government will fight to remain in the EU single market

With Cameron gone, it is hard to expect the UK government to follow through on that. They will try to negotiate the best deals they can get now.

I predicted the demise of the Cameron government earlier here, should Brexit materialize. I think you will see the collapse of additional governments in Europe, particularly the left-leaning governments. There is a swing to the right across the continent. Not dissimilar to the time just before the rise of Hitler.

And you can thank all of that to the abuse of power / trust voters had given to the far left politicians over the last decade.

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I'm fairly sure the vast majority of voters, from either side, didn't actually know what to expect

I think the voters know very well what the expect. It is the "experts" that fail to see through the fog of war.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 24, 2016, 12:39:16 pm
@nctnico

What planet are you from ?
The grand EU project has failed.
I voted back in the 70's for a common market NOT some grand unified Europe.
If the Grand Euro fucktards   hadn't been such a bunch of dickheads there would never have been a vote.
I'm SURE that the UK will go from strength to strength.
We are a trading nation it's in our history.
I bet we get on a treat with Germany for starters.

So sit back in your stagnant protectionist EU and watch us move ahead.

PS. The planet is bigger than the EU


 
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Howardlong on June 24, 2016, 12:39:52 pm
I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath :palm:

Falling house prices is the last thing we need.
Actually, where I live that's exactly what's needed. You need to be earning in excess of £150k to be able to afford a £500,000 mortgage on a studio apartment.
This is typical 'kicking against large capital' thinking. I'm quite sure there are only a handful of investors like this.

I agree, a handful of speculative investors who own large tranches of property.

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For the majority of the home owners their retirement fund is their home.

Indeed, but as it stands unless you're in the top 0.2% you will not be able to get on the housing ladder.

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Falling house prices will mean many people will see their retirement fund go down the drain which in turn will have dire consequences for the (local) economy because these people will have much less to spend.

No, the 15 to 20% year on year house inflation we've seen in the Capital over the past five years was never sustainable except for speculative investors.

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You'll also need to take inflation into account. My own home also increased in value but my interest rate has been less than 2% over the period (>10 years) I own it.

I would never be in a position now to buy the flat I bought in 1999 for £250k. Current market value is now £1.7m, it passed £1m three or four years ago. Inflation over the same period would value it as just shy of £400k.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Buriedcode on June 24, 2016, 12:40:04 pm
I instinctively want to think that is a fake picture.  But then I saw the word 'Fox'.  Could it just be a typo? nope.  Trump, and many of his supporters still think that parts of Britain are 'under Sharia law' hah
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: chris_leyson on June 24, 2016, 12:41:05 pm
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The good ol' British sausages can now go back to less than 35% meat content.
That reminded me of an old joke, "Walls have ears", they also have trotters, snouts and testicles.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: 3db on June 24, 2016, 12:41:29 pm
The good ol' British sausages can now go back to less than 35% meat content.   :-DD

Nice one.  :-DD
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: MT on June 24, 2016, 12:42:57 pm
All thats needed now is the politicians ignoring the vote outcome and decide to stay in EU!   Damned if you do, damned if you dont! >:D

UK next PM!
(https://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1380245/nigel-farage-has-seen-ukip-post-big-gains-local-elections-england.jpg)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: System Error Message on June 24, 2016, 12:51:59 pm
i disagree with UK leaving the EU but the way politicians have been running countries there just isnt any choice. A country ruining itself within the EU ends up bringing down the other countries in it. I have friends who are in 3rd world parts of the EU and they say its much better there, they get much faster internet than the UK cheaper, prices of items are much cheaper and are quite happy to supply other countries with cheaper things from EU instead of china and obviously better quality (food sources untained and clean, better quality items, etc). Instead of outsourcing work to china they should've outsourced it to EU as there are still 3rd world countries there.

Some social/media groups over report issues. I dont get any job offers within the UK not even an interview, all offers come from EU so i wonder whats up with this country.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: wraper on June 24, 2016, 12:54:07 pm
I instinctively want to think that is a fake picture.  But then I saw the word 'Fox'.  Could it just be a typo? nope.  Trump, and many of his supporters still think that parts of Britain are 'under Sharia law' hah
When I was in Luton, I had a bit of such feeling myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA6XcyXsxXU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA6XcyXsxXU)
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 24, 2016, 12:58:19 pm
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I instinctively want to think that is a fake picture.

His resignation is to be expected. As a leader of the remain camp, it is not right for him to act as the caretaker of the country in the aftermath of a leave vote, over-whelming one too.

Cameron did the honorable thing by tendering his resignation. I'm sure it was a difficult decision but he did the right thing for the country, and for himself in the long-run.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Kalvin on June 24, 2016, 12:59:42 pm
Voters with better education voted for "Stay" and the voters with less education voted for "Leave". This is a clear indication that the Britain lacks educated people and savings in the education expenses backfired. It is country's interest to provide a good education for as many people as possible.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: Zero999 on June 24, 2016, 01:02:42 pm
Increased prices for food and fuel?
Why would food and fuel prices rise?

When we leave we'll be able to get cheaper food and fuel from other non-EU countries. Food is overpriced because of the subsidies EU farmers receive.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: dannyf on June 24, 2016, 01:04:14 pm
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This is a clear indication that the Britain lacks educated people and savings in the education expenses backfired.

Not sure what's a big deal with the lack of "educated" people.

I in my life have encountered numerous well educated fools. Equating "educated" to "smart" is foolish, I think.
Title: Re: UK forum members, BREXIT?
Post by: nctnico on June 24, 2016, 01:08:23 pm
You'll also need to take inflation into account. My own home also increased in value but my interest rate has been less than 2% over the period (>10 years) I own it.
I would never be in a position now to buy the flat I bought in 1999 for £250k. Current market value is now £1.7m, it passed