UK power grid situation!!

[tggzzz]

The uk has a new method of cutting down on grid demand,pricing the poor out of the market.

If they fall behind on their payments too far, then the energy companies don't cut them off (because they said they wouldn't when installing the smart meters).

They do, however, transfer them onto a prepayment tariff, which is typically more expensive. That has more or less the same effect as cutting them off, but avoids the PR & political fallout.

Whether that is fair or just is, of course, a separate argument.

Personally I'm waiting until there is a large database cockup or malefactors enter the system - and transition everyone onto a prepayment tariff or directly turnoff the supply at using smart meters.

[tom66]

Supply and demand.  There's a shortfall of gas, prices have to rise.  Why would they not?  How else would you manage excess demand in a time of shortage?  The alternative is rationing,  i.e. power outages throughout the day, and that sounds even more unpleasant.  Of course, if the shortfall got bigger due to low temperatures, it is an acknowledged risk, with energy prices being capped there is technically no incentive to further reduce consumption.

[tggzzz]

Supply and demand.  There's a shortfall of gas, prices have to rise.  Why would they not?  How else would you manage excess demand in a time of shortage?  The alternative is rationing,  i.e. power outages throughout the day, and that sounds even more unpleasant.  Of course, if the shortfall got bigger due to low temperatures, it is an acknowledged risk, with energy prices being capped there is technically no incentive to further reduce consumption.

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make.

All you have done is indicate the conditions that lead to rationing using one criteria or another.

Poor people are pretty frugal with their use of fuel. I doubt that cutting off poor people's supply will do much to reduce the chance of general rationing via widespread power outages.

[themadhippy]

Supply and demand.  There's a shortfall of gas, shareholders dividend have to rise. 

[tom66]

Was more replying to @hippy, re prices going up pricing the poor out of the market.  Not saying it is not unfair, but your two options are high prices, or rationing.  And yes, shareholder dividends for the energy extractors are higher than they ever have been, so I fully support taxing them hell out of these companies.  But, it  still doesn't resolve the issue with a shortfall of gas, because you need to manage that somehow. 

People have to be forced to ration, by increasing the price ("demand destruction") or you have to ration them forcefully.  A prepayment meter is one way, but those can take a while to get approval for, and can require physical access unless the meter is already compatible.  They also don't work for people who can keep up with their bill, but are using a lot of energy regardless (because the government is picking up the tab and in theory, governments have unlimited money.)  So, that's why we might see rolling blackouts this winter if we're unlucky, because we're literally consuming too much gas and the price signals to stop that have gone.  (This is an unlikely worst-case scenario.  So far the data shows we'll not see this, because we've consumed less gas this year than a typical winter, and the winter has been warmer than historical averages.)

[AVGresponding]

How about give discounts to customers who get devices installed to limit heating to 60-65F during peak times?

How do you enforce that? It's trivial to bypass a thermostat to turn on the heating, and if you don't want to mess with that, just plug in a space heater.

Smart meters.

Also, most people are not smart enough for 'trivial'.

What if someone likes leaving the windows open but keeps the thermostat at 18°C?  Should they get a discount?  What if most the house is 16°C but your office is 20°C, does that qualify?  What about people that upgrade their insulation?

Pay per use billing seems a lot easier and more fair.  Use less energy, get a lower energy bill.

Unit cost should go up, the more you use, and not down, as it currently does.

The uk has a new method of cutting down on grid demand,pricing the poor out of the market.

If they fall behind on their payments too far, then the energy companies don't cut them off (because they said they wouldn't when installing the smart meters).

They do, however, transfer them onto a prepayment tariff, which is typically more expensive. That has more or less the same effect as cutting them off, but avoids the PR & political fallout.

Whether that is fair or just is, of course, a separate argument.

Personally I'm waiting until there is a large database cockup or malefactors enter the system - and transition everyone onto a prepayment tariff or directly turnoff the supply at using smart meters.

What happens in this situation is that the customer is described as having "self-disconnected" when they can't afford to feed the meter. I expect there will be quite a few people in this position during this current cold snap, and if we don't have a mild winter, it could become a serious problem (beyond the fact of it already being a serious problem for the people directly affected).

[tggzzz]

Was more replying to @hippy, re prices going up pricing the poor out of the market.  Not saying it is not unfair, but your two options are high prices, or rationing.  And yes, shareholder dividends for the energy extractors are higher than they ever have been, so I fully support taxing them hell out of these companies.  But, it  still doesn't resolve the issue with a shortfall of gas, because you need to manage that somehow. 

It would be helpful if you learned two basic things:

• indicating who and what you are replying to by using the "quote" button rather than the "reply" button
• understanding the concept of "price elasticity of demand". That will clue you in to why high prices are a form of rationing. High prices and rationing are not mutually orthogonal

[tggzzz]

So, that's why we might see rolling blackouts this winter if we're unlucky, because we're literally consuming too much gas and the price signals to stop that have gone.  (This is an unlikely worst-case scenario.  So far the data shows we'll not see this, because we've consumed less gas this year than a typical winter, and the winter has been warmer than historical averages.)

As with any use of the concept of averaging, the averging period is absolutely key. For example, by choosing different averaging periods, an individual's average (mean) heartrate can be stated to be anywhere between 220bpm to <1µbpm. Yes "µ".

In this case the averaging period of "winter" or "season" is invalid and misleading. The only correct period is relative to the total capacity of stored gas and the usage rate. One report indicates for the UK's largest (hastily partially recommissioned) gas storage facility, Rough: "If the facility were able to maintain its previous outflow rates, calculations by Watt-Logic suggest it would be able to provide up to 12 per cent of UK gas needs for about 19 days during this winter." https://inews.co.uk/news/gas-rough-uk-storage-facility-winter-energy-crisis-russia-1900316

[G7PSK]

The main reason electricity price is high in the UK at present is that it is tied to the price of gas, even renewables are tied so that wind and solar are getting both subsidies and increased price. And the reason that electricity price is still high, forward buying on gas by the generating companies who bought forward as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine at panic inflated prices and now that the wholesale price has dropped due to greatly increased LNG imports they are still contracted at the higher price, what happens as the contracts expire is anyone's guess. One thing that all this has shown is that power should never have been privatised, all privatisation has done is put too many snouts in the trough forcing up prices and ensured that not enough is spent on the infrastructure so that the whole system is creaking at he seams. What is going to happen to the grid when haulage companies are forced to use electric trucks, ware houses lined with row upon row of one megawatt chargers, the grid at present will not take that.   

[tom66]

Was more replying to @hippy, re prices going up pricing the poor out of the market.  Not saying it is not unfair, but your two options are high prices, or rationing.  And yes, shareholder dividends for the energy extractors are higher than they ever have been, so I fully support taxing them hell out of these companies.  But, it  still doesn't resolve the issue with a shortfall of gas, because you need to manage that somehow. 

It would be helpful if you learned two basic things:

• indicating who and what you are replying to by using the "quote" button rather than the "reply" button
• understanding the concept of "price elasticity of demand". That will clue you in to why high prices are a form of rationing. High prices and rationing are not mutually orthogonal

Use of @username (or an abbreviation where it is not ambiguous) is an accepted internet practice to refer to multiple posts when there is no particular comment in mind.  It predates Twitter, but it was probably mass popularised by that platform.

Of course I understand demand elasticity.  That's like econ 101.  But that's not really the same as rationing, because it's not enforced on you if you can afford to pay, it just encourages demand destruction by consumers.  Rationing would be telling people you have 10kWh of gas to use today, once you go over that, you're going to shiver.  That is the alternative if we want to keep prices low.  That's also what I wanted the UK EPG to be, some average amount of kWh per year/quarter/month to be covered at the guaranteed price and anything above that at market rates, but it isn't how it worked out.

[themadhippy]

Rationing would be telling people you have 10kWh of gas to use today, once you go over that, you're going to shiver

Brilliant idea as long as us wthout gas get to flog our share off

[TimFox]

The UK did not end World War II rationing until 1954.
Food rationing was not so severe in US (not under attack) and it ended in 1945, except for sugar that was rationed until 1947.

[tggzzz]

Was more replying to @hippy, re prices going up pricing the poor out of the market.  Not saying it is not unfair, but your two options are high prices, or rationing.  And yes, shareholder dividends for the energy extractors are higher than they ever have been, so I fully support taxing them hell out of these companies.  But, it  still doesn't resolve the issue with a shortfall of gas, because you need to manage that somehow. 

It would be helpful if you learned two basic things:

• indicating who and what you are replying to by using the "quote" button rather than the "reply" button
• understanding the concept of "price elasticity of demand". That will clue you in to why high prices are a form of rationing. High prices and rationing are not mutually orthogonal

Use of @username (or an abbreviation where it is not ambiguous) is an accepted internet practice to refer to multiple posts when there is no particular comment in mind.  It predates Twitter, but it was probably mass popularised by that platform.

Of course I understand demand elasticity.  That's like econ 101.  But that's not really the same as rationing, because it's not enforced on you if you can afford to pay, it just encourages demand destruction by consumers.  Rationing would be telling people you have 10kWh of gas to use today, once you go over that, you're going to shiver.  That is the alternative if we want to keep prices low.  That's also what I wanted the UK EPG to be, some average amount of kWh per year/quarter/month to be covered at the guaranteed price and anything above that at market rates, but it isn't how it worked out.

Having been on the net since '86, I am fully aware of various conventions. Quoting was commonplace even then, in emails and on usenet. It is regarded as being courteous to readers.

The first time I noticed your seeming inability to use the quote button was your slightly earlier post https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/uk-power-grid-situation!!/msg4572133/#msg4572133
Where it certainly wasn't obvious.

Your comments indicated you have no understanding of price elasticity.

Your latest comments indicate you have no concept of "rationing by price".

[SiliconWizard]

The uk has a new method of cutting down on grid demand,pricing the poor out of the market.

Oh yes, but it's not restricted to the UK. It's the same shit happening in most of Europe.
It's also driving a lot of smaller companies out of business.

[Zero999]

Most of these renewables provide intermittent power, meaning they generate electricity when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining

so something which stores the energy when available would be ideal,like the box  of bricks currently heating this place.thankfully there not lot 20 compliant.

Sure sounds like you're one of the usual complainers that needs batting down.... being that lot 20 does not change existing installs, restricts the market for new installs, and there are new storage heaters on the market with LOT20 compliance.

So, still wanting to dream of the past?

I'm fully aware what lot 20 is and its scope,I'm also aware ,from real life figures ,not reading random numbers in  a brochure that a like for like lot 20 compliment heater will actual consume MORE energy than these ancient heaters

Talking about resistive heating (off peak electricity heating into bricks), how can consuming more power result in less heating ? ? ? all the energy ends up as heat with almost perfect unity.

or more accurately if you come back and say that there is no impediment to buying another storage heater, then what on earth were you saying originally (quoted above) ? What is better about the old heaters that you cannot buy? Resistive heating dump into a brick is pretty much impossible to screw up.

It depends on the person's lifestyle. For me, storage heaters would cost more money to run. I prefer to have the heating off at night and most of the day, as I'm either at work, or out seeing family. I turn the heating on in the late-afternoon/early evening (I normally work shorter hours in winter, so I can avoid cycling in the dark) and it stays on until I go to bed. I also have the thermostat set to 15^oC both to save energy and so I don't break into a sweat and have to remove layers of clothing, when doing housework.

The uk has a new method of cutting down on grid demand,pricing the poor out of the market.

Oh yes, but it's not restricted to the UK. It's the same shit happening in most of Europe.
It's also driving a lot of smaller companies out of business.

In the UK there are triad charges during peak times, for large commercial users. This incentivises businesses to cut their power consumption during peak hours, between 16:30 and 18:30, from November to February. They're not applicable to small businesses, as far as I'm aware.
https://smarterbusiness.co.uk/blogs/faq-what-are-triad-charges/

[Someone]

Most of these renewables provide intermittent power, meaning they generate electricity when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining

so something which stores the energy when available would be ideal,like the box  of bricks currently heating this place.thankfully there not lot 20 compliant.

Sure sounds like you're one of the usual complainers that needs batting down.... being that lot 20 does not change existing installs, restricts the market for new installs, and there are new storage heaters on the market with LOT20 compliance.

So, still wanting to dream of the past?

I'm fully aware what lot 20 is and its scope,I'm also aware ,from real life figures ,not reading random numbers in  a brochure that a like for like lot 20 compliment heater will actual consume MORE energy than these ancient heaters

Talking about resistive heating (off peak electricity heating into bricks), how can consuming more power result in less heating ? ? ? all the energy ends up as heat with almost perfect unity.

or more accurately if you come back and say that there is no impediment to buying another storage heater, then what on earth were you saying originally (quoted above) ? What is better about the old heaters that you cannot buy? Resistive heating dump into a brick is pretty much impossible to screw up.

It depends on the person's lifestyle. For me, storage heaters would cost more money to run. I prefer to have the heating off at night and most of the day, as I'm either at work, or out seeing family. I turn the heating on in the late-afternoon/early evening (I normally work shorter hours in winter, so I can avoid cycling in the dark) and it stays on until I go to bed. I also have the thermostat set to 15^oC both to save energy and so I don't break into a sweat and have to remove layers of clothing, when doing housework.

That convenient power you pull in the early evening is right on the peak wholesale cost, if you were exposed to that pricing then a storage unit would make sense running on midday power. Consumers are disconnected from the marginal costs so something needs to change, or those using most of their power on peak (as you do) will just continue being subsidised by others (suits you sir).

[Zero999]

Most of these renewables provide intermittent power, meaning they generate electricity when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining

so something which stores the energy when available would be ideal,like the box  of bricks currently heating this place.thankfully there not lot 20 compliant.

Sure sounds like you're one of the usual complainers that needs batting down.... being that lot 20 does not change existing installs, restricts the market for new installs, and there are new storage heaters on the market with LOT20 compliance.

So, still wanting to dream of the past?

I'm fully aware what lot 20 is and its scope,I'm also aware ,from real life figures ,not reading random numbers in  a brochure that a like for like lot 20 compliment heater will actual consume MORE energy than these ancient heaters

Talking about resistive heating (off peak electricity heating into bricks), how can consuming more power result in less heating ? ? ? all the energy ends up as heat with almost perfect unity.

or more accurately if you come back and say that there is no impediment to buying another storage heater, then what on earth were you saying originally (quoted above) ? What is better about the old heaters that you cannot buy? Resistive heating dump into a brick is pretty much impossible to screw up.

It depends on the person's lifestyle. For me, storage heaters would cost more money to run. I prefer to have the heating off at night and most of the day, as I'm either at work, or out seeing family. I turn the heating on in the late-afternoon/early evening (I normally work shorter hours in winter, so I can avoid cycling in the dark) and it stays on until I go to bed. I also have the thermostat set to 15^oC both to save energy and so I don't break into a sweat and have to remove layers of clothing, when doing housework.

That convenient power you pull in the early evening is right on the peak wholesale cost, if you were exposed to that pricing then a storage unit would make sense running on midday power. Consumers are disconnected from the marginal costs so something needs to change, or those using most of their power on peak (as you do) will just continue being subsidised by others (suits you sir).

That's a good point. Anyway, it doesn't affect me, since I use gas for heating.

[richard.cs]

I see we're into the orange again today at 45.5 GW demand, there's only 1.2 GW of wind, and Drax are warming up two coal units for this evening.

[Gyro]

I see the French, Dutch and Norway ICTs are maxed out too. We also seem to be usng pumped storage early in the day, that's normally reserved for sudden peak loads (kettle breaks).

[xmris]

I am watching another similar site https://grid.iamkate.com/ and hell, wholesale price was £1650/MWh a couple of hours ago...

[Someone]

I am watching another similar site https://grid.iamkate.com/ and hell, wholesale price was £1650/MWh a couple of hours ago...

Australia used to hit the market "cap" of $15,000 per MWh a few times a year:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/residents-asked-to-switch-off-appliances-between-1630-1830-today-due-to-heat/msg1133303/#msg1133303
Not as sustained but the ongoing gaming by the generators (to avoid selling power at the marginal cost + fixed % markup) resulted in the wholesale market being capped down to a 300 $/MWh. But thats only achievable here because so much of the grid is vertically integrated power plants physically on top of coal mines, yet they want to "sell" the coal at international market prices when it suits them. UK being reliant on importing energy is going to hurt.

[SiliconWizard]

I see the French, Dutch and Norway ICTs are maxed out too. We also seem to be usng pumped storage early in the day, that's normally reserved for sudden peak loads (kettle breaks).

Almost half (26 out of 56) of our nuclear plants were halted a few weeks ago. A few have been restarted since then, but there's still a significant fraction that is halted. You bet we are maxed out.

[tggzzz]

I see the French, Dutch and Norway ICTs are maxed out too. We also seem to be usng pumped storage early in the day, that's normally reserved for sudden peak loads (kettle breaks).

Almost half (26 out of 56) of our nuclear plants were halted a few weeks ago. A few have been restarted since then, but there's still a significant fraction that is halted. You bet we are maxed out.

Ouch. What was/is the common cause? Fractures?

Looking at the yearly UK-Franch interconnectors graph on gridwatch, I would have guessed more than a few weeks. More like starting in April/May/June.

[SiliconWizard]

I see the French, Dutch and Norway ICTs are maxed out too. We also seem to be usng pumped storage early in the day, that's normally reserved for sudden peak loads (kettle breaks).

Almost half (26 out of 56) of our nuclear plants were halted a few weeks ago. A few have been restarted since then, but there's still a significant fraction that is halted. You bet we are maxed out.

Ouch. What was/is the common cause? Fractures?

It's a combination of multiple factors, which, to be fair, would require a pretty long and detailed explanation. Otherwise the short version may look too much like a conspiracy theory.
One of the factors was that they were under maintenance, but how come that many plants could end up under maintenance at the same time, that's complicated (and sounds unbelievable.)
I have not heard of any particular incident. I think it's relatively standard maintenance, now sure some of our plants are getting a bit old, so maintenance is required and sometimes longish.
The management of our energy company EDF has also been largely questionable for over a decade.

But all in all, we have been sabotaging our energy production capabilities in most of Europe. There's absolutely nothing unexpected here.
Apparently all is well as we're going to build "green" hydrogen pipelines. Yes, really. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/h2med-hydrogen-pipeline-france-cost-25-bln-euros-spanish-pm-sanchez-says-2022-12-09/

[G7PSK]

Read yesterday in the Guardian I think it was that wind power was down to under 3.6% here in the UK, of course being the Guardian it was all down to global warming that there was no wind. Thing is here in the UK we have always had foggy days that go on for a few days or even a week and when there is fog there is no wind, guess these city idiots just don't realise this and think the wind is a steady state thing.