Author Topic: US Election and what it means to China Imports  (Read 49203 times)

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Offline marty

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US Election and what it means to China Imports
« on: November 09, 2016, 11:40:08 pm »
With the interesting events here state side.

I wonder if we're going to see a flood in of products with big sales (Siglent, and Rigol) before policies are put in place or his Oath on Jan 20th. One of president elect Trump's 100 day targets is China, NAFTA, and TPP.

Seems to me it would be a smart thing to do for them to cash in while they can.

Opinions?
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2016, 11:46:39 pm »
As a Chinese person, I like Trump, I turned to Trump after realizing how many lies Hillary made and how hypocritical she is. Trump is politically friendly to eastern, while his anti fake made in China actually benefits innovative engineers in China.
Chinese government is impotent enough not to stop made in China craps, and Democrats just won't do anything to help the manufacture to innovation transition in China.
Trump's ban on clone goods will correct China's clone-and-manufacture method and give more living space for truly innovative engineers and creators in China.

Rigol and Siglent, these big brands with little to no IP infringement issues will less likely to be banned IMHO, but these crappy fake iPhones will take a hit, disastrous hit.
 

Offline AlfBaz

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2016, 11:58:18 pm »
Rigol and Siglent, these big brands with little to no IP infringement issues will less likely to be banned IMHO, but these crappy fake iPhones will take a hit, disastrous hit.
So does this mean a massive decline in electronic hobbyist participation in the US? No more cheap, nock-off programmers, logic analysers, Arduino clones, dev boards, etc, etc...
 

Offline John Coloccia

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2016, 12:03:17 am »
So does this mean a massive decline in electronic hobbyist participation in the US? No more cheap, nock-off programmers, logic analysers, Arduino clones, dev boards, etc, etc...

Why would it mean any of this?
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2016, 12:09:30 am »
So does this mean a massive decline in electronic hobbyist participation in the US? No more cheap, knock-off programmers, logic analyzers, Arduino clones, dev boards, etc, etc...

I never understand why there are knock off programmers or dev kits in the first place.
For virtually all hobbyist oriented platforms, no matter AVR, PIC, PSoC, STM32, you name it, you can find OEM original programmers for less than $30, which makes buying a knock off pointless.
Many boards even have free on board debugger integrated with possibility of being hacked for external programming.

Arduino itself is open source with permissive license. Unless you use the name Arduino, it is perfectly legal to create an Arduino clone.
Considering how cheap it is to get a genuine Analog Discovery or Saleae, plus tons of open source LA with open source software, a knock off Saleae is pointless to me as well.
 

Offline station240

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2016, 12:15:57 am »
It's Australia that is the usual dumping ground for cheap chinese ewaste electronics that no one wants.
But yes there is a big problem with electronics from the cheaper end of the market, it's not only a waste of money, but a waste of resources.
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2016, 12:27:39 am »
But yes there is a big problem with electronics from the cheaper end of the market, it's not only a waste of money, but a waste of resources.

Yes, and since Chinese government cannot just say "hey, low tech company, you are not needed anymore, you can die now", we need an external force to drive these low tech company to subside, and this force is Trump.
I would like to see Chinese companies to ditch the beat on price strategy, then there will be more margin for innovative, though less cost effective solutions, to excite innovation capability from engineers.
The inertia of Chinese market is too heavy to be corrected by some faint voice from minority engineers, but with an even larger force from the US, hopefully the clone strategy of China can be stopped.
 

Offline Brumby

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2016, 12:35:55 am »
I would like to see Chinese companies to ditch the beat on price strategy...

Unfortunately, this will never happen while Consumers demand the lowest price - and it doesn't apply to just Chinese companies .... it is a global issue.
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2016, 12:41:03 am »
Unfortunately, this will never happen while Consumers demand the lowest price - and it doesn't apply to just Chinese companies .... it is a global issue.

That's the other reason I like Trump. Bring jobs back and let people to create fortune for people to consume, rather than Obama's solution by giving money and health care to poor people doing nothing, and spending money collected from tax payers, while impeding people from being excited their creativity and productivity, let along bubbling up economy.
When people have money to pursue quality, they won't buy shit.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2016, 01:10:07 am »
but these crappy fake iPhones will take a hit, disastrous hit.
I don't think so. There are far fewer Americans than you think so the market they represent is small. Also China is the biggest single lender to the US (30%) so in turn China can stop lending money to the US if the US no longer buys from China. See https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355 how China basically controls the US economy like a string puppet. All in all Trump can talk but Trump can't do because China has their fist deep up the US' arse.

Either way we'll have to see where it goes. The choice was between bad and worse anyway. Don't forget the earlier Clinton administration greatly deregulated the financial markets leading to the crash of 2008 and subsequent global recession. I feel sad for Bill though... close but no sigar! What puzzles me is that in the US you can lose an election even if you got more votes (like Hillary).
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 01:12:13 am by nctnico »
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Offline EEVblog

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2016, 01:12:28 am »
We talked a bit about this on today's Amp Hour.
Trump wants a 45% tariff on all imports from China?
 

Offline blueskull

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2016, 01:16:59 am »
I don't think so. There are far fewer Americans than you think so the market they represent is small. Also China is the biggest single lender to the US (30%) so in turn China can stop lending money to the US if the US no longer buys from China.

I don't think Chinese government has the balls to do so. The reason China can get so many goodies from western, such as gen 3 nuclear power technology, high performance chips and even lithography machines, technology and parts to build large passenger jets, and so on, came from the debt we lend to the US.
As long as China does not explicitly declare union with Russia, I don't think Chinese government dare to retract its investigation to the US, let along Chinese VCs actually makes tons of money by investigating in US. Without a friendly political relationship, I don't think US government will ever allow so many US equity to be sold to Chinese.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2016, 01:27:06 am »
Actually it wouldn't surprise me if Trump bails out half way because the job is too hard and he can't live up to any of the big promises he made. I've seen it a couple of times already with right wing 'I'll set things straight' politicians in the Netherlands. So let's see where the import tariffs land at and how many jobs in the US get lost due to increased import tariffs.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 01:32:07 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online coppice

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2016, 01:28:55 am »
We talked a bit about this on today's Amp Hour.
Trump wants a 45% tariff on all imports from China?
China would simply put a 45% tariff on imports from the US, and wait for Boeing's lobbyists to get America's 45% tariff sorted out.
 

Offline rfeecs

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2016, 01:59:52 am »
What puzzles me is that in the US you can lose an election even if you got more votes (like Hillary).

First past the post. Our current Provincial goverment also got a majority with only 19% of the popular vote our priminister actually got 40%.

Yes, as of now, Clinton has 48% of the vote, Trump has 47%.  So Trump wins! The system is rigged! :scared:

Actually it is because of the electoral college:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)
 

Offline timb

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US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2016, 02:11:25 am »
What puzzles me is that in the US you can lose an election even if you got more votes (like Hillary).

The US is a large place, geographically speaking. We have the Electoral Collage system to prevent large centers of population from dominating the election results.

Basically, if only the actual  number of votes counted, you'd end up with a situation where only votes from New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Detroit and other large cities would really matter.

So, to fix that problem, each state is given a specific number of votes in the Electoral College. Depending on how that specific state as a whole votes determines where their EC votes go. (For example, Pennsylvania is worth 20 Electoral College votes, so if more people in PA vote for Trump, he gets those 20 votes.)

The Electoral College system is roughly based on the geographical size and population of a state (well, it's based on the number of seats a state holds in Congress, which is based on the aforementioned variables). This way, small states with few people aren't less important than larger states with more people. It's essentially like applying a weighting algorithm to the voting system!

This system only applies on a national level. On a state level, each vote is counted to determine who wins in that state. To illustrate my point, here's the voting spread of my state, Virginia:



At first glance, we'd appear to be a Trump state, as he won more counties than Clinton did. However, the counties that Hillary won (blue) have more people in them (since they're major cities like Richmond and Hampton Roads, plus Northern Virginia where a lot of people who work in DC live). Now, if you were to expand this idea to the entire country, you can see how having centers of population deciding the results of an election might not be the best idea!
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 02:19:46 am by timb »
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Offline Brumby

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2016, 02:34:21 am »
Some time ago I remember seeing an example of different voting systems.

It was a group of 5 or 6 candidates, with a carefully constructed voting profile.  Using the same voting profile under each of the 5 or 6 voting systems, each candidate was victorious under one system or another.  I might see if I can find it.



Personally, I like the preferential system we use in Australia.  It ensures every vote has weight until one candidate gets over the 50% mark.

Not sure about the tenuous nature of the position of PM, though.
 

Offline ez24

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #17 on: November 10, 2016, 02:39:15 am »
What puzzles me is that in the US you can lose an election even if you got more votes (like Hillary).
Our system is based on horse transportation from the 1700's.  :palm:
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Offline Rick Law

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #18 on: November 10, 2016, 03:13:50 am »
We talked a bit about this on today's Amp Hour.
Trump wants a 45% tariff on all imports from China?

re: "45% tariff on all imports..."
My guess:  not a chance.  Not all imports are alike.

Trump is a CEO, so he is a big picture guy.  He would focus on the biggest bang for the buck.

Stuff like scopes, dmm, are small potatoes.  The big concerns would be high-volume consumer electronics: (LCD-TV, Smartphone), washing-machines, cars, airplanes, etc.  Beside end-user items, certain infrastructure and enabling technologies of industries would likely be of concern: pick and place machines, CNCs, steel, routers, high-end parts for high-end tech products (airplane titanium screws for example)...  Stuff that falls into "loosing those would undermine our ability to produce".

Stuff like air-conditioners (the Indianapolis Carrier case he referred to), H1B (Disney I.T. staff laidoff) are is as much his focus than imported hard-goods like shirts from China or Sri Lanka.  So we could see labor-flow choke off very soon.  Plus for local-unemployed, minus for a "friction free" economy.

I am somewhat confident.  My observation is, he seem to know how to pick the right person to run the details.  I've a kid in school and I had thought Trump with his money, he would never relate to what average mortal's concern about education is.  I heard his education-issue advisor interviewed on TV.  This advisor (forgot his name) point-for-point named all my concerns and then laid out close to exactly what I would do if I am king for a day.

That said, I think he would let the pendulum swing too far first and adjust it down.  He seem to carry the same mindset of one of my xboss: When in doubt, cut it first.  If they truly need it, they can re-justify and you can reinstate it.  Rather like hiring back a laid-off guy is a lot easier than letting a few layoff every Friday until you get it done just right.

I am afraid this adjustment will be a hard time for many of us.  I like him, but each time his polls go up, my 401K (retirement savings account) goes down - being retired, it is very uncomfortable that my net-worth is inversely proportional to his poll numbers.  Today however, after he is President-elect, stock market went up...  So hopefully the adjustment would not be too difficult.

EDITED.  Strike out an error I missed
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 03:30:57 am by Rick Law »
 

Offline John Coloccia

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2016, 03:15:54 am »
What puzzles me is that in the US you can lose an election even if you got more votes (like Hillary).
Our system is based on horse transportation from the 1700's.  :palm:

Nonsense. It's based on the idea that you "elect" a small group of people that you trust to put in the time and resources to really studying who will make the best president. The original idea was to simply have congress appoint a president. Try to remember that we were founded on the idea of a weak federal government, and the role of president was not nearly as big a deal as it is today. Also try to remember that the House of Representatives was supposed to be the representatives of the people. The Senate was the representative of the state, and appointed/recalled by the states (doesn't work like this anymore). The president was the Executive...like the CEO of a company. He was to be appointed as a leader and administrator to serve, not as some omnipotent king. It was never intended for the federal government to have such a huge impact on the daily lives of the citizenry. That was the role of the state governments, where citizens had much more direct control and freedom to shape what they want. Yeah, things have gone a little haywire, but that's the history for anyone who's interested.

But anyhow, looking at the popular vote is misleading. There are lots of places, like New York, California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut etc where people simply don't vote because there's practically zero chance of your vote being meaningful. If the president were elected by popular vote, voter turnout would have a completely different cross section.
 
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Offline John Coloccia

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2016, 03:21:26 am »
I remember reading that with a 45% tariff, the impact on consumer prices would be about 10%. That's not particularly catastrophic.
 

Offline Bryan

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2016, 06:15:06 am »
Read an interesting article the other day that suggested in fact a lot of manufacturing is already coming back to the United States, just without the jobs. Apparently a lot of companies are finding it cheaper in the long run to manufacture back in the U.S. with more stable lines of supply, better quality, tax incentives. However with technology advancing so much the jobs that used to go along with the manufacturing are gone and replaced with robotic manufacturing.

p.s.. I did have a chuckle when I heard that our American friends crashed the Canadian Immigration and Citizenship web site with all the traffic once the results of the election started to come in. <g>
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 06:21:21 am by Bryan »
-=Bryan=-
 

Offline tatus1969

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2016, 06:45:19 am »
maybe I should become a Chinese import retailer. Is he going to raise import penalties for other countries as well?
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Offline VK3DRB

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2016, 08:48:20 am »
Actually the tariffs will be good for US jobs. Electronics is far too cheap and places like the US cannot compete with the third world countries like China. The problem is the Chinese will simply export to an intermediate country (who might charge a small tax) who will then export to the USA and avoid the tax. The point is, the sex predator Trump cannot target the Chinese, but will need to target all exporters to the USA.

If your Chinese oscilloscope goes up in cost, who cares. At you know what, you may one day buy an oscilloscope made in the USA by one of your fellow countrymen.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 08:49:59 am by VK3DRB »
 

Offline thisguy

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Re: US Election and what it means to China Imports
« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2016, 10:30:10 am »
Actually it wouldn't surprise me if Trump bails out half way because the job is too hard and he can't live up to any of the big promises he made. I've seen it a couple of times already with right wing 'I'll set things straight' politicians in the Netherlands. So let's see where the import tariffs land at and how many jobs in the US get lost due to increased import tariffs.
More likely that he will use the position to personally benefit through his private businesses around the world. As long as that is happening, he doesn't really care whether he delivers on any promises. His propagandists Bannon, Ailes, and their buddies will manage the public expectations around broken promises. They can always blame someone else for failures while he makes new dramatic promises. If he continues to make money, get a lot of attention, and can punish his detractors, he will be happy and stay in the job as long as he can.
 


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