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What is the real story around heat pumps?

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nctnico:

--- Quote from: zilp on February 23, 2024, 09:03:00 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 23, 2024, 07:44:07 pm ---Well, you have to define those 'existential' threats. IMHO the threats are way overblown as the earth and humanity have seen far worse events (like massive vulcanic eruptions, meteorites and ice ages).

--- End quote ---

Now, as for the claim that humanity has seen far worse events: Would you mind giving an example of a volcanic eruption, a meteorite, and an ice age, respectively, that humanity has experienced and that you think was far worse than climate change will become for humanity if we don't limit the temperature rise as recommended by the concensus of scientists?

To give you a heads up: Modern humans evolved at most 400,000 years ago. The last ice age was ~ 2.4 million years ago. If I were you, I wouldn't waste too much time trying to find an ice age that humanity has experienced.

--- End quote ---
You are ill-informed then. Northern Europe was covered in a thick layer of ice 20000 years ago. And even more around 115000 years ago. From the latter period it is very easy to see where the ice ended in the landscape near where I live.


--- Quote ---

--- Quote from: nctnico on February 23, 2024, 07:44:07 pm ---With today's level of technology there is a lot more the human race can do to remedy effects than ever before. I've been around long enough to notice the climate is changing myself (while carefully keeping in mind that memories typically compress the time frame). I've also been around long enough to know humanity can put serious and effective measures into place to remedy and reverse damage done to the environment. IOW: don't worry too much, it will be OK.

--- End quote ---

What I am wondering is: How would you recognize ahead of time a case where the technology that the human race has available would actually be insufficient to remedy/reverse the damage?

Are you saying that it is somehow logically impossible for humanity to cause damage to the environment that it can not remedy or reverse? If so, why would that be? And it not, then how did you determine that this instance of damage to the environment is in the category of cases that can be remedied/reversed?

Or are you saying that because we have in the past caused damage to the environment that we were able to remedy, that therefore any damage that we cause to the environment can be remedied?

If so, would you see any flaw with it if someone told you that they had been in various car crashes that they had all survived, and that they concluded that it therefore was impossible for them to die in a car crash?

--- End quote ---
You are seeing that completely wrong. Consider humanity like a bunch of ants in a nest. Some will die and if living conditions get worse, the ants will move somewhere else. Translated to your car analogy: cars are continously improved to become safer in the big picture.
Also be aware that nature and the face of the earth change continuously. There is no fixed or final state. One of the major shortcomings of many environmentalists is that they want to keep things the same. If they could, they would want to make the moon stop circling around the earth so to say.

tom66:
Why are we even bothering to compare whether humans lived 20,000 years ago in an ice age or not?  It's irrelevant.  Utterly irrelevant.  Life expectancy was shorter in those times too, turns out temperate climates are about right for humans.  It isn't conducive to survival to be in extreme weather of any kind.  But it's not representative of the threat of climate change.

The problem with climate change is not human extinction, no one serious thinks humans will go extinct, it is the severe and irreversible harm it will do to an ecosystem that is currently well balanced, that is currently able to feed approximately 7 billion people adequately (and another ~1 billion inadequately).  It is the threat to arable land especially in equatorial areas.  It is the flood threat to countries with limited sea defences.  It is the extreme temperature and drought threat to most countries 15 degrees either side of the equator.

Upset the delicate balance and trigger these events and you will have war, famine and illness - that is the big danger of climate change - not slightly hotter summers or colder winters.

coppice:

--- Quote from: nctnico on February 24, 2024, 12:29:15 am ---
--- Quote from: zilp on February 23, 2024, 09:03:00 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 23, 2024, 07:44:07 pm ---Well, you have to define those 'existential' threats. IMHO the threats are way overblown as the earth and humanity have seen far worse events (like massive vulcanic eruptions, meteorites and ice ages).

--- End quote ---

Now, as for the claim that humanity has seen far worse events: Would you mind giving an example of a volcanic eruption, a meteorite, and an ice age, respectively, that humanity has experienced and that you think was far worse than climate change will become for humanity if we don't limit the temperature rise as recommended by the concensus of scientists?

To give you a heads up: Modern humans evolved at most 400,000 years ago. The last ice age was ~ 2.4 million years ago. If I were you, I wouldn't waste too much time trying to find an ice age that humanity has experienced.

--- End quote ---
You are ill-informed then. Northern Europe was covered in a thick layer of ice 20000 years ago. And even more around 115000 years ago. From the latter period it is very easy to see where the ice ended in the landscape near where I live.

--- End quote ---
There is plenty of evidence that people followed the retreating ice sheets into northern Europe, as the last ice age cycle subsided. Ice ages cycle about every 100k years, and have been doing so for numerous cycles.

nctnico:

--- Quote from: tom66 on February 24, 2024, 12:42:22 am ---Why are we even bothering to compare whether humans lived 20,000 years ago in an ice age or not?  It's irrelevant.  Utterly irrelevant.  Life expectancy was shorter in those times too, turns out temperate climates are about right for humans.  It isn't conducive to survival to be in extreme weather of any kind.  But it's not representative of the threat of climate change.

The problem with climate change is not human extinction, no one serious thinks humans will go extinct, it is the severe and irreversible harm it will do to an ecosystem that is currently well balanced, that is currently able to feed approximately 7 billion people adequately (and another ~1 billion inadequately).  It is the threat to arable land especially in equatorial areas.  It is the flood threat to countries with limited sea defences.  It is the extreme temperature and drought threat to most countries 15 degrees either side of the equator.

Upset the delicate balance and trigger these events and you will have war, famine and illness - that is the big danger of climate change - not slightly hotter summers or colder winters.

--- End quote ---
There is no such thing as a delicate balance. There is only chaos in the weather system. You can't even be 100% sure that the temperature change we're seeing is due to human activity. There are so many factors that you can't even begin to create a suitable model. For starters take the huge amount of energy the sun is supplying to the earth. Even a small fluctuation can have a massive effect and this happens as the sun's energy output isn't constant at all. Data shows that sun has been outputting more energy since 1700. But you can't even start to claim that causes an increase in temperature. It might as well cause a decrease in the long term. Nowadays the news is way to quick to attribute every bit of rain (or lack thereof) to climate change. Accurate data goes back only 100 years or so.

zilp:

--- Quote from: nctnico on February 24, 2024, 12:29:15 am ---
--- Quote from: zilp on February 23, 2024, 09:03:00 pm ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on February 23, 2024, 07:44:07 pm ---Well, you have to define those 'existential' threats. IMHO the threats are way overblown as the earth and humanity have seen far worse events (like massive vulcanic eruptions, meteorites and ice ages).

--- End quote ---

Now, as for the claim that humanity has seen far worse events: Would you mind giving an example of a volcanic eruption, a meteorite, and an ice age, respectively, that humanity has experienced and that you think was far worse than climate change will become for humanity if we don't limit the temperature rise as recommended by the concensus of scientists?

To give you a heads up: Modern humans evolved at most 400,000 years ago. The last ice age was ~ 2.4 million years ago. If I were you, I wouldn't waste too much time trying to find an ice age that humanity has experienced.

--- End quote ---
You are ill-informed then. Northern Europe was covered in a thick layer of ice 20000 years ago. And even more around 115000 years ago. From the latter period it is very easy to see where the ice ended in the landscape near where I live.

--- End quote ---

Well, that depends on what exactly you mean by "ice age".

But it doesn't really matter anyhow, as even a mere 20000 years ago there was nothing close to the current human population, so the fact that (some) humans survived that time doesn't tell you anything useful for today anyhow.

Also ... what about the volcanic eruption and the meteorite?


--- Quote from: nctnico on February 24, 2024, 12:29:15 am ---
--- Quote ---

--- Quote from: nctnico on February 23, 2024, 07:44:07 pm ---With today's level of technology there is a lot more the human race can do to remedy effects than ever before. I've been around long enough to notice the climate is changing myself (while carefully keeping in mind that memories typically compress the time frame). I've also been around long enough to know humanity can put serious and effective measures into place to remedy and reverse damage done to the environment. IOW: don't worry too much, it will be OK.

--- End quote ---

What I am wondering is: How would you recognize ahead of time a case where the technology that the human race has available would actually be insufficient to remedy/reverse the damage?

Are you saying that it is somehow logically impossible for humanity to cause damage to the environment that it can not remedy or reverse? If so, why would that be? And it not, then how did you determine that this instance of damage to the environment is in the category of cases that can be remedied/reversed?

Or are you saying that because we have in the past caused damage to the environment that we were able to remedy, that therefore any damage that we cause to the environment can be remedied?

If so, would you see any flaw with it if someone told you that they had been in various car crashes that they had all survived, and that they concluded that it therefore was impossible for them to die in a car crash?

--- End quote ---
You are seeing that completely wrong. Consider humanity like a bunch of ants in a nest. Some will die and if living conditions get worse, the ants will move somewhere else.

--- End quote ---

OK. And how many humans do you expect to die? And where do you think the remaining humans will move?


--- Quote from: nctnico on February 23, 2024, 07:44:07 pm ---Translated to your car analogy: cars are continously improved to become safer in the big picture.

--- End quote ---

Yeah. But you do understand that there is a limit to how bad of a crash a modern car with all the state of the art safety systems will save you from, right?


--- Quote from: nctnico on February 23, 2024, 07:44:07 pm ---Also be aware that nature and the face of the earth change continuously. There is no fixed or final state.

--- End quote ---

OK. And how is that relevant here? What does that have to do with climate change, or with whether there is reason to worry, or ... anything in this dicussion?


--- Quote from: nctnico on February 23, 2024, 07:44:07 pm ---One of the major shortcomings of many environmentalists is that they want to keep things the same. If they could, they would want to make the moon stop circling around the earth so to say.

--- End quote ---

Please provide a source for that claim.

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