General > General Technical Chat
What's actually "chip shortage"?
Marco:
--- Quote from: madires on June 10, 2021, 02:12:33 pm ---I think the national investment programs for semiconductors are a reaction to the current mess of outsourcing, just-in-time production done wrong and Chinese competition (some manufacturers are supported by subsidies). The chip shortage is real and not just propaganda.
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One major advantage of a national supply chain ... you can centrally plan stuff. Rationing versus hoarding and creating lottery winners.
tooki:
--- Quote from: nardev on June 09, 2021, 04:33:26 pm ---It might sound very very stupid to some but the most common explanation that i heard sounded pretty incomplete.
If i got it right, the explanation was:
First car manufacturers than some other electronics manufacturers "lost manufacturing slots" which makes delays.
So my question is, what other industry branches "got those slots", how come they have so huge need and what other "industry" is making so huge sales?
Also, "shipping" delays etc was given as an explanation. Despite the fact that all of mayor and mission critical manufacturing routes were active all the time.
At the same time, more and more protectionism in USA/EU Economics starts to appear. Understandably all of them want to be less dependent on China manufacturing etc.
Example: https://blog.adafruit.com/2021/06/09/bosch-opens-german-chip-plant/
* There s many more information of huge investments and plans for semiconductor manufacturing support in USA/EU
So, my theory is that all the information about chip shortage is probably partially true but at the same time protectionism propaganda in order to motivate and shift manufacturing capabilities from China "back to USA/EU"?
Does anyone else see it that way?
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Absolutely not.
In a nutshell, the car manufacturers guessed wrong (they thought demand for new cars would plummet for years, but it didn’t), but the prolonged working from home and distance learning created a massive surge in demand for personal computers, tablets, webcams, etc. that still has not receded. So those free manufacturing slots became free just when the computer industry needed them. (And even with that added capacity, lead times on laptops are still around double what they were pre-COVID!)
coppice:
--- Quote from: Marco on June 10, 2021, 06:22:23 pm ---One major advantage of a national supply chain ... you can centrally plan stuff. Rationing versus hoarding and creating lottery winners.
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Central planning always does wonders for smooth predictable supply. :)
nardev:
--- Quote from: coppice on June 10, 2021, 06:20:14 pm ---
--- Quote from: nardev on June 10, 2021, 05:38:04 pm ---@coppice mentality of nations is not the same. Also, strategies that they incline to.
I would just cite one simple example.
VW back in 90's had two times more engineers (i think around 7K) while i think in whole USA (i don't remember if it was one or several main manufacturers) had around 3.5K engineers directly involved in design, planning, construction,manufacturing, testing etc.
Well, VW is well known for quality were USA cars in 90's didn't have such reputation.
So, you can make cars with less engineers but you can't get the quality, reputation and eventually be prosperous as VW.
IMHO
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Is that supposed to relate to what I said in some way? If so, you'll have to explain.
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OMG, wrong copy paste, it should have been @CatalinaWOW
PlainName:
--- Quote ---the supply network is too long and too brittle to elegantly balance inductive supply with capacitive demand.
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That's a good way of putting it :-+
--- Quote ---Step responses like Covid throw the system into oscillation.
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Mmmm. Following that train of thought suggests that not long after this dearth of parts there will be a glut with consequently lower pricing. If one could just hold out until then...
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