General > General Technical Chat
What's actually "chip shortage"?
johnboxall:
--- Quote from: RoGeorge on June 10, 2021, 10:19:26 pm ---
- The "people stay home buying electronic gizmos" is also hard to believe. What I see is exactly the opposite, people being more careful when spending for non essential goods. Not many will impulse buy today a $2k gaming rig like it's 2019.
--- End quote ---
Depends on the country, this is true in Australia. WFH cleaned out places like Officeworks and other home/office gear retailers. We waited three months to get the new TV we wanted.
PlainName:
--- Quote from: ataradov on June 10, 2021, 10:20:22 pm ---
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on June 10, 2021, 08:47:12 pm ---Mmmm. Following that train of thought suggests that not long after this dearth of parts there will be a glut with consequently lower pricing. If one could just hold out until then...
--- End quote ---
Why wold there be? The whole reason for this shortage is that chip manufacturers only produce parts for which there is guaranteed demand. All the parts that are made right now have been allocated. There will be no surplus.
--- End quote ---
It ain't oscillating if there's never too much as well as too little. Past examples include DRAM, hard drives, etc.
The fabs may only manufacture exactly what's demanded, but that demand is generated by OEMs thinking they're going to sell as many as they can get hold of to people gasping for kit, only to find they've since spent the money on something they could actually buy and don't want it now. Or there's newer flasher kit so the stuff they've over-demanded is obsolete. Many slips twixt cup and lips, you know.
coppice:
--- Quote from: RoGeorge on June 10, 2021, 10:19:26 pm ---- The "people stay home buying electronic gizmos" is also hard to believe. What I see is exactly the opposite, people being more careful when spending for non essential goods. Not many will impulse buy today a $2k gaming rig like it's 2019.
--- End quote ---
Perhaps you need to look at this in a less shallow way. Huge numbers of people have suddenly NEEDED tools to work remotely, which they never thought they would have in their homes. They need decent mics and cameras, so their conference calls run smoothly. They may need a faster computer, a better screen, and better interactive tools like Wacom tablets, to ensure they are productive. In many cases their employers are paying for this stuff.
ataradov:
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on June 11, 2021, 12:22:57 am ---but that demand is generated by OEMs thinking they're going to sell as many as they can get hold of to people gasping for kit,
--- End quote ---
Well, ok, there may be a surplus of finished goods. I was thinking more of surplus of parts. And that will not happen, since OEMs are on the hook to buy those parts no matter what.
tooki:
--- Quote from: RoGeorge on June 10, 2021, 10:19:26 pm ---- The car industry explanation doesn't make any sense. Less chips for cars would mean more chips for other industries.
- The "people stay home buying electronic gizmos" is also hard to believe. What I see is exactly the opposite, people being more careful when spending for non essential goods. Not many will impulse buy today a $2k gaming rig like it's 2019.
- Just in time delivery can only explain delays at the end of chain, but won't explain a general shortage.
- Oscillations in the system doesn't make sense. With constant production and oscillations of demand we should see stock of some other parts piling up, but I don't see that.
--- End quote ---
It’s actually quite remarkable to see someone get things as wrong as this. Every single point above is demonstrably 100% wrong. They’re not speculation, they’re the documented reality of the situation. Not to mention that I and others explained these points in detail.
As for just in time delivery: what on earth makes you think only the end of the chain uses JIT delivery? The entire problem with JIT is that since everyone uses it now, a hiccup early in the chain will hold up the entire chain.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version