| General > General Technical Chat |
| What's actually "chip shortage"? |
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| David Hess:
--- Quote from: schmitt trigger on June 11, 2021, 08:16:24 pm ---The MBA's made the same (wrong) decision that engineering managers often fall into: trying to schedule production to 100%. There is no margin or slack; the supply network is too long and too brittle to elegantly balance inductive supply with capacitive demand. Step responses like Covid throw the system into oscillation. --- End quote --- Management is not paid for avoiding catastrophes which *might* happen, like cops are not paid for not arresting people, and prosecutors are not paid for not charging people with crimes. --- Quote from: SilverSolder on June 11, 2021, 10:30:15 pm ---Having lived in the US for a while, I am beginning to understand that most Americans hate a free market! - if prices go up, it is "gouging". If they are undercut (e.g. by China) that is also a big problem. Basically, Americans seem to prefer a nicely planned economy where everything is locked in place! :D --- End quote --- Like I said, most of the "free markets" in the US are not. Politicians like to say they are, and then blame the free market for the bad results of their own policies. |
| tooki:
--- Quote from: nardev on June 12, 2021, 04:43:12 am --- --- Quote from: RoGeorge on June 10, 2021, 10:19:26 pm ---- The car industry explanation doesn't make any sense. Less chips for cars would mean more chips for other industries. - The "people stay home buying electronic gizmos" is also hard to believe. What I see is exactly the opposite, people being more careful when spending for non essential goods. Not many will impulse buy today a $2k gaming rig like it's 2019. - Just in time delivery can only explain delays at the end of chain, but won't explain a general shortage. - Oscillations in the system doesn't make sense. With constant production and oscillations of demand we should see stock of some other parts piling up, but I don't see that. Other explanations would make more sense, the most probable causes IMO could be: 1. Enforced scarcity (for political reasons, Taiwan is a hot area for some time) 2. Monopoly industries want to raise prices (it was about time to happen after so many industry consolidations) 3. Some new big centralized buyer(s) appeared overnight, for example military spending Could also be because of a dystopian level story we are not yet fully aware. For example some nation(s) might be heavily manufacturing surveillance equipment right now, to be deployed soon and enforced by law, then connected later with big data and autonomous AI weapons. 8) --- End quote --- This chip shortage reminds me to when Luxottica purchased RayBan brand. First thing they did was to stop manufacturing aviators for a year or even more. The aviator glasses coasted around 10$. Now i think it's more like 100-180$ :) --- End quote --- What’s weird is that I had missed Ray-Ban’s dip to the low end. Around 1994, my optician gave me a free pair of Ray-Bans, and back then they still cost something like $70. I never look at gas station sunglasses racks, so I guess I never noticed Ray-Ban had moved into that market just a few years later! This reminds me that I really need to get new glasses. I was about to do so a year and a half ago, and then corona came along and closed things down, and then I started my new apprenticeship, so here I am with the same worn-out lenses... |
| Neomys Sapiens:
--- Quote from: tooki on June 13, 2021, 09:00:20 am --- --- Quote from: nardev on June 12, 2021, 04:43:12 am --- --- Quote from: RoGeorge on June 10, 2021, 10:19:26 pm ---- The car industry explanation doesn't make any sense. Less chips for cars would mean more chips for other industries. - The "people stay home buying electronic gizmos" is also hard to believe. What I see is exactly the opposite, people being more careful when spending for non essential goods. Not many will impulse buy today a $2k gaming rig like it's 2019. - Just in time delivery can only explain delays at the end of chain, but won't explain a general shortage. - Oscillations in the system doesn't make sense. With constant production and oscillations of demand we should see stock of some other parts piling up, but I don't see that. Other explanations would make more sense, the most probable causes IMO could be: 1. Enforced scarcity (for political reasons, Taiwan is a hot area for some time) 2. Monopoly industries want to raise prices (it was about time to happen after so many industry consolidations) 3. Some new big centralized buyer(s) appeared overnight, for example military spending Could also be because of a dystopian level story we are not yet fully aware. For example some nation(s) might be heavily manufacturing surveillance equipment right now, to be deployed soon and enforced by law, then connected later with big data and autonomous AI weapons. 8) --- End quote --- This chip shortage reminds me to when Luxottica purchased RayBan brand. First thing they did was to stop manufacturing aviators for a year or even more. The aviator glasses coasted around 10$. Now i think it's more like 100-180$ :) --- End quote --- What’s weird is that I had missed Ray-Ban’s dip to the low end. Around 1994, my optician gave me a free pair of Ray-Bans, and back then they still cost something like $70. I never look at gas station sunglasses racks, so I guess I never noticed Ray-Ban had moved into that market just a few years later! This reminds me that I really need to get new glasses. I was about to do so a year and a half ago, and then corona came along and closed things down, and then I started my new apprenticeship, so here I am with the same worn-out lenses... --- End quote --- The reputation of some products keeps with them faar too long. Since the early 80s, the only holder of the supply contract under MIL-S-25948 is Randolph. The teardrop for factor was outgoing in the 60s. |
| nardev:
Well, to me this all looks more than obvious now that it's an artificially generated crisis. Until now, everything should have been stabilized IF they wanted. btw. here is the strategy of EU, pretty fresh document https://www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/PC-2021-17-semiconductors-.pdf |
| ataradov:
--- Quote from: nardev on August 17, 2021, 03:17:22 pm ---Well, to me this all looks more than obvious now that it's an artificially generated crisis. Until now, everything should have been stabilized IF they wanted. --- End quote --- Who are "they"? Semiconductor companies? They don't want to "fix" it, they are working as normal based on what was ordered. All new orders went to the end of the queue. You need to understand that 52 week factory lead times were normal even before the crisis. You just were always observing the other end of that pipeline, because distributors managed their orders well, and there was no interruptions. But once you interrupt it by cancelling orders, you are in for a long wait. There is nothing artificial about it. |
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