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| Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus |
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| Nusa:
The 1918 pandemic was a world-wide event because there was a war going on. Massive troop movements by all involved on crowded land and sea transports are an excellent way to spread disease. I was an infant in 1957. Supposedly it came to the US via Navy personnel. Similarly, the 1968 pandemic probably was brought to the US by returning Vietnam troops. This time around, we didn't need the military. We civilians were doing plenty of international travel. |
| coppice:
--- Quote from: Nusa on May 02, 2020, 06:12:14 pm ---The 1918 pandemic was a world-wide event because there was a war going on. Massive troop movements by all involved on crowded land and sea transports are an excellent way to spread disease. I was an infant in 1957. Supposedly it came to the US via Navy personnel. Similarly, the 1968 pandemic probably was brought to the US by returning Vietnam troops. This time around, we didn't need the military. We civilians were doing plenty of international travel. --- End quote --- These things get spread by numerous vectors. The 1968 pandemic appeared to start in Hong Kong. Hong Kong was becoming a major air transport hub by that time, and was already a major sea transport hub. Most long distance ocean liners called into HK at that time, and there were quite a lot of those, not all of them pleasure boats. People emigrating from Europe to Australia still mostly went by sea, and called into HK, at that time. Of course, there were also the US troops passing through HK on their way to and from Vietnam. All of this was enough to spread the virus everywhere quite fast. |
| nctnico:
--- Quote from: coppice on May 02, 2020, 06:01:11 pm ---If 1% of people is up 100 million, you seem to think that up to 10 billion people will be infected. There are only 8 billion people, so where are the other 2 billion going to come from? ;) --- End quote --- You missed 10 million to 100million. Not just 100million. My numbers are an order of magnitude estimate just to try and compare the severity of the current pandemic versus those of starting in 1957 and 1968. |
| cdev:
That's called a "Herald wave" when you have a small epidemic one year and then most of the mortality hits the next. I don't think that anybody knows what is likely to happen. Some people with the novel coronavirus also get sick again. There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened. Hopefully by next year they will know more. All the kids around here are out of school, and you cant stop kids from playing. So the kids are out and about somewhat, although its muted. There is also this custom around here in sururbia of parents driving their kids is caravans together for kids birthday parties, in separate cars, every few days there will be one, they all honk their horns like a wedding. That way they dont feel imprisoned. I can understand that. People are managing the best they can, going to the grocery the bare minimum number of times, etc. . I'm glad that I don't have kids, If I did, I'd be concerned about them missing so much school. The area where I live is in the midst of it now and lots of people are dying. Medical staff are burning out. But still acting very professionally. We need a cure that works, badly. They did close down a lot during the 1917-1919 flu pandemic. --- Quote from: nctnico on May 02, 2020, 05:24:50 pm ---I did some reading into these pandemics. It seems these where multi-year events and it is not like people wheren't travelling at all back then. My parents have not mentioned these pandemics so far because appearantly no drastic measures where taken. If you look at the mortality rate of the Covid-19 virus which seems to be around the 0.5% to 1% we could be looking at 10 million to 100 million dead world wide. Remember most parts of the world are just 2 months in. --- End quote --- I have a good question, What are the best home internet setups for good computer security and low latency? |
| SiliconWizard:
--- Quote from: cdev on May 02, 2020, 10:27:38 pm ---There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened. --- End quote --- I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!) If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work? Maybe the answer is obvious, and if so, I'm going to learn something about vaccines. |
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