General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
cdev:
At the same time, there are strategies that might prove to be useful against lots and lots of viruses, (or maybe not!) (Example of how this might work)
More general overview
This might help a lot of people come through this alive
I do intend to keep on being paranoid until the number of sick people falls to a lot lower than it is now. People have died in my neighborhood. Not people I knew but people nontheless.
I'm avoiding contact as best as I can. When I get stuff in the mail, I just put it aside for a couple of days, then open it.
It sure would suck to go on like this forever.
--- Quote from: coppice on May 02, 2020, 11:00:37 pm ---
Nobody knows if a vaccine will be feasible, and if it's feasible whether it will be very effective. The development of vaccines has always been rather patchy. When they say 18 months to a vaccine you need to check carefully which end of their anatomy the statement came from.
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james_s:
From what I've been seeing, the symptoms are mild to moderate for the vast majority of people who get it, with apparently a large but as of yet unknown percentage possibly as high as 50% who have no symptoms at all, or symptoms so mild they don't realize they're sick.
But for a not insignificant percentage of people the symptoms are severe and there's no way to know ahead of time what it will be like for any given person. If it was contracted by numbers similar to the seasonal flue it wouldn't be so bad, but this thing is being contracted by huge numbers of people.
SiliconWizard:
Anyone knows why it spreads so easily compared to seasonal flu?
cdev:
Youre right, it does seem to spread more.
Thats quite possibly just the normal exponential rate of increase. There is a number based on how many people its expected to be spread to which varies - its related to how well we are preventing transmission. In a city like New York without social distancing in normal times its virtually impossible to not spread a virus like this because people spend a lot of time indoors next to other people. many buildings dont have windows that open. If somebody sneezes elements of whatever virus they expel remain in the air for a significant amount of time if the building doesnt have powered ventilation that can exchange the air in the rooms several times an hour. Also, the optium temperature for corona virus is kind of cool. Hot weather reduces transmission a lot. The next cold winter people are going to have to find a balance between heating and ventilation and or getting sick. Not using the heat to save energy is going to make the likelihood of illness higher. As will constant use of AC.
The "Harald Wave" is the first season and then there may be one next winter-spring and sometimes even the one after that. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=herald+wave
--- Quote from: nctnico on April 30, 2020, 06:33:38 am ---
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 27, 2020, 02:28:45 am ---
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on April 27, 2020, 01:56:03 am ---
--- Quote ---And government and businesses are slowly losing the ability to capitalise on people's fear, all this stuff isn't going to last too much longer, people's patience is already starting to wear thin.
--- End quote ---
Maybe. I mean, you're right that people are getting restless and if it all blew over right now we'd be back to where we were pretty soon. But that assumes it will blow over. Suppose we all start going back to work and it blows up again, like it's doing in Singapore
--- End quote ---
That's the 2nd time someone here has claimed it's flaring back up in places that have eased lockdowns. Do you have data for that? Because it looks like that's not the case, daily case totals have not increased.
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Just saw this picture in the news:
(Attachment Link)
According to the article the lockdown was released on the 19th of March and 2 weeks later infections started to rise at a faster pace than before.
Just looking at a country as a whole is not a good idea. Even in small countries (like the Netherlands) the number of infections vary wildly between areas so the epidemic flaring up in one area can easely get lost in the noise of the country's total.
Generic disclaimer: you have to be very careful with trying to interpret Corona numbers yourself; it is easy to get to the wrong conclusions.
--- End quote ---
Once the free healthcare ends here in the US, (when the emergency ends and people can go back to work, getting sick with COVID disease will go back to being just like any disease, insanely expensive, really unaffordable for almst everybody, even those with health insurance. ) everything may change. Infection rate will rocket up again because they have not, in fact can not change anything. Both candidates are pretending they can but they cant they signed away the right to do so decades ago.
there is a reason why the numbers are so bad here and its structural aspects of the system that are carved in stone forever in Geneva.
This web page is a useful resource. Its the John Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
But keep in mind that its quite possible that the lions share of the people dying from COVID-19 are not in those statistics because they die at home .
DrG:
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on May 03, 2020, 12:26:10 am ---Anyone knows why it spreads so easily compared to seasonal flu?
--- End quote ---
There are some reasonable thoughts on that.
As has been stated, Covid-19 SARS-CoV-2 can produces almost no symptoms in some people and very mild symptoms in other people, which may not even show up for many days. The duration of the symptoms can last what, 14 days or more? In all of those situations, you may be contagious.
Those, it seems to me, are all differences from what we generally call the "seasonal flu" (of which there are several varieties or strains, as I understand).
When you know you have the flu, you are not going anywhere for the most part and you are extra careful about infecting others (most people are).
Nevertheless, a longer duration with symptoms offers more opportunities to spread the infection.
I think, however, (but don't know), that a big difference is that in all cases of infection (let's say after 1 day) that are asymptomatic, the individual is contagious and they don't even know they are infected.
Well, that is all you need to spread so easily, compared to the "seasonal flu".
I have not seen any real data that it has a greater airborne capability or that it can be absorbed more easily through skin and we know something about its short viability on surfaces, so I don't think any of those factors are major reasons.
That is my understanding anyways.
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