General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
cdev:
It's supposedly mutating now. According to this Los Alamos preprint.
Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more
transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2
Korber B 1 , Fischer WM 1 , Gnanakaran S 1 , Yoon H 1 , Theiler J 1 , Abfalterer W 1 , Foley
B 1 , Giorgi EE 1 , Bhattacharya T 1 , Parker MD 3 , Partridge DG 4 , Evans CM 4 , Freeman
TM 3 , de Silva TI 4,5 , on behalf of the Sheffield COVID-19 Genomics Group # ,
LaBranche CC 2 , and Montefiori DC 2
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054
GlennSprigg:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on May 05, 2020, 12:51:00 pm ---"Scott Morrison says it's time to get Australians back to work after coronavirus shutdown"
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown
Translation: "I'm sick of this crap too, let's get back to work, but make it appear slow because I have a lot of pissed of Karen's on social media who will kick up a stink, so I have to keep them happy."
--- End quote ---
As long as we keep YOU happy Dave, and maintain your HIGHness & lack of responsibility...
Syntax Error:
--- Quote from: cdev on May 07, 2020, 04:11:10 am ---It's supposedly mutating now. According to this Los Alamos preprint.
...
--- End quote ---
That's a very interesting set of graphs with some important conclusions. They show why Germany was able to supress the outbreak so effectively, because it was not facing the same R0 value as Italy. And then why Germany experienced a second more deadly peak. Also, why the UK and New York State have been so badly hit. I would be interested to see the curves for Belgium, as they've the worse per capita death rate. Australia is also fighting the 'weaker' strain, so reducing the lock down would make sense, but. Japan is an illustration of why our guard should not be dropped just to suit the news cycle. This outbreak is far too nuanced to fit into a sound bite.
DrG:
--- Quote from: Syntax Error on May 07, 2020, 02:47:43 pm ---
--- Quote from: cdev on May 07, 2020, 04:11:10 am ---It's supposedly mutating now. According to this Los Alamos preprint.
...
--- End quote ---
That's a very interesting set of graphs with some important conclusions. They show why Germany was able to supress the outbreak so effectively, because it was not facing the same R0 value as Italy. And then why Germany experienced a second more deadly peak. Also, why the UK and New York State have been so badly hit. I would be interested to see the curves for Belgium, as they've the worse per capita death rate. Australia is also fighting the 'weaker' strain, so reducing the lock down would make sense, but. Japan is an illustration of why our guard should not be dropped just to suit the news cycle. This outbreak is far too nuanced to fit into a sound bite.
--- End quote ---
I don't believe that those are safe assumptions at all (different R0 values) at this point.
When I posted the link to that study, https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/working-from-home-impacts-of-coronavirus/msg3051026/#msg3051026
I tried to make the point that mutations are to be expected. Even I am aware of several documented mutations and I think it is a safe bet that there are more.
The issue is whether this mutation is biologically significant. The author's argued that this one (the mutated SARS-Cov-2) made the virus more transmissible. The data for that contention are distinctly underwhelming. At this point, many do not agree with their conclusion in that regard. In my original post, I linked a thread that explicitly discussed that point.
That it is a valid "mutation" is not at issue.
Non-biologically significant mutations can still prove to be valuable for tracking the virus.
thinkfat:
--- Quote from: Syntax Error on May 07, 2020, 02:47:43 pm ---
--- Quote from: cdev on May 07, 2020, 04:11:10 am ---It's supposedly mutating now. According to this Los Alamos preprint.
...
--- End quote ---
That's a very interesting set of graphs with some important conclusions. They show why Germany was able to supress the outbreak so effectively, because it was not facing the same R0 value as Italy. And then why Germany experienced a second more deadly peak. Also, why the UK and New York State have been so badly hit. I would be interested to see the curves for Belgium, as they've the worse per capita death rate. Australia is also fighting the 'weaker' strain, so reducing the lock down would make sense, but. Japan is an illustration of why our guard should not be dropped just to suit the news cycle. This outbreak is far too nuanced to fit into a sound bite.
--- End quote ---
There was no second wave in Germany. We had one tiny initial group that was easily contained, and then we imported a lot of virus from Ischgl. That explains the high infection count in Bavaria. It spread in the western areas through carnival and through the clubs in the big cities, like Berlin. Other regions are hardly affected at all. My city has no more than 210 total cases. The whole Corona thing is a very regional event over here. We have some hotspots, but by and large it wasn't a big problem.
In fact it was so little a problem that people are now protesting the restrictions. Many don't understand that, had we done nothing, we'd be mourning many more deaths by now.
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