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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

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cdev:
Just a heads up, the drug industry here is gearing up for a "once in a lifetime business opportunity" like never before.

And they fully intend to make a killing.

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/13/big-pharma-drug-pricing-coronavirus-profits/


https://greenworld.org.uk/article/patented-covid-19-vaccine-could-price-out-millions


james_s:

--- Quote from: EEVblog on May 07, 2020, 11:32:01 pm ---Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)

--- End quote ---

Absolutely, the same applies to all of those things, how do you really know which action contributed by how much? It stands to reason that if someone is isolated then they will not contract a virus or spread it to someone else, but how much do less drastic methods help? It's very difficult to know, it's not like we can really have a large control group that does nothing, and various groups that try different methods.

No matter what we do to slow the spread, if it works, it will appear to many that it was not necessary. I certainly don't have all the answers, I thought the whole thing was hype until I saw the dramatically increasing infection numbers.

EEVblog:

--- Quote from: james_s on May 08, 2020, 01:11:30 am ---
--- Quote from: EEVblog on May 07, 2020, 11:32:01 pm ---Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)

--- End quote ---

Absolutely, the same applies to all of those things, how do you really know which action contributed by how much? It stands to reason that if someone is isolated then they will not contract a virus or spread it to someone else, but how much do less drastic methods help? It's very difficult to know, it's not like we can really have a large control group that does nothing, and various groups that try different methods.
No matter what we do to slow the spread, if it works, it will appear to many that it was not necessary. I certainly don't have all the answers, I thought the whole thing was hype until I saw the dramatically increasing infection numbers.
--- End quote ---

Also let's not forget that something like >40% of the population were not isolated and in lockdown (I've seen numbers up to 50%). Everyone might feel like the entire country/city is in lockdown and no one is going out, but there are massive amounts of "essential" workers who's lives didn't change apart from increased hygiene and "social distancing".
It's a shame we may never have real concrete numbers on this because I fear that governments will do lock downs again at the drop of a hat, and if that's based on incomplete or just assumed data, then that's bad.

cdev:
Culture and also living density make a lot of difference. People in NYC live in tiny places. They travel by public transport where lots of people are crammed together. You are lucky if you can find a seat. Lots and lots of people all moving very fast. Workplaces are almost always crowded there.  If you want quiet you either have to get a meeting room to talk, or leave, go outside. If youre lucky there is some open space... on the roof.

So basically in places like NYC, when people are not under lockdown, "social distancing" is literally impossible. Its impossible to go about your daily business without getting physically close to people because you get crammed next to people everywhere. For example, when you wait to cross the street. A lot of the time in NYC when I want to get somewhere fast, and I am not going that far, say from a subway stop to whatever building I a going to, I will step off the curb and walk in the street instead of on the sidewalk against the traffic, so I can see it. Its faster because the people clog the sidewalk. I havent been to NYC in over three months. I havent been there since before this whole thing started.

I'm not eager to go either. I really love NYC and previous to this still felt more at home there then I do in the town I live in now.

But I sure am glad I dont live there now. Especially people who are on their own and/or poor. Not being able to work and still having to pay that huge rent. It must be absolutely horrible. I bet you that whenever this settles down a lot of people who are struggling now will opt to, or in many cases be forced to move somewhere else.

Its hard to say what will happen. As far as NYC they had absolutely no choice but to do something like this. Or it would have been much much worse. They are doing the bare minimum now that they can. There is not much you can do besides keep people indoors and away from one another when you have 10 million people.


cdev:
We wont know until next flu season (the winter) if there is a second wave here in the Northwern hemisphere. There is the herald wave and then the real wave. The term is borrowed from tsunamis.

For some example usage and accounts of how it works, go to PubMed

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=%22herald%20wave%22

Also, this looks interesting


A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23701386

We describe a multiple strain Susceptible Infected Recovered deterministic model for the spread of an influenza subtype within a population. The model incorporates appearance of new strains due to antigenic drift, and partial immunity to reinfection with related circulating strains. It also includes optional seasonal forcing of the transmission rate of the virus, which allows for comparison between temperate zones and the tropics. Our model is capable of reproducing observed qualitative patterns such as the overall annual outbreaks in the temperate region, a reduced magnitude and an increased frequency of outbreaks in the tropics, and the herald wave phenomenon. Our approach to modelling antigenic drift is novel and further modifications of this model may help improve the understanding of complex influenza dynamics.

AMS Subject Classification: 92D30; 92D15

Keywords: influenza, antigenic drift, cross-immunity, multiple strains, seasonality

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