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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
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Zero999:

--- Quote from: rodpp on May 08, 2020, 05:02:48 pm ---
--- Quote from: Zero999 on May 08, 2020, 04:36:25 pm ---
--- Quote from: rodpp on May 08, 2020, 02:18:14 pm ---Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.

--- End quote ---
I wouldn't trust those graphs much, as they're subject to levels of testing.

--- End quote ---
Me too, you're correct. But it's the only data we have. Other than that, we will be only guessing.

Even with poor data, is better to be data driven than be based only in personal opinions.

--- End quote ---
I disagree.

Poor data is no better than opinion. It also depends on how well informed the opinion is. For example, I'd trust the opinion of a clinician, over data from the governement. if an emergency doctor believes COVID-19 cases are increasing because they're treating more and more people with an unknown repository disease and they can't test everyone, yet the government are reporting  a decrease in COVID-19 cases, then I'd certainly believe the doctor, over the government.

We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.

rodpp:

--- Quote from: Zero999 on May 08, 2020, 05:30:41 pm ---
--- Quote from: rodpp on May 08, 2020, 05:02:48 pm ---
--- Quote from: Zero999 on May 08, 2020, 04:36:25 pm ---
--- Quote from: rodpp on May 08, 2020, 02:18:14 pm ---Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.

--- End quote ---
I wouldn't trust those graphs much, as they're subject to levels of testing.

--- End quote ---
Me too, you're correct. But it's the only data we have. Other than that, we will be only guessing.

Even with poor data, is better to be data driven than be based only in personal opinions.

--- End quote ---
I disagree.

Poor data is no better than opinion. It also depends on how well informed the opinion is. For example, I'd trust the opinion of a clinician, over data from the governement. if an emergency doctor believes COVID-19 cases are increasing because they're treating more and more people with an unknown repository disease and they can't test everyone, yet the government are reporting  a decrease in COVID-19 cases, then I'd certainly believe the doctor, over the government.

We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.

--- End quote ---

Ok, but that clinician opinion in your example is data driven. And if you want a local picture of the situation I believe there is no better source than that.

I heard somewhere that in a pandemia, the better thermometer of the situation is the gravedigger.

That same issue with death data you cited is happening in UK, is happening here in Brazil too.

Unfortunately, if you want a big picture instead of a local one, we only have that poor data.

Although poor, I want to believe that data is above the noise floor.
nctnico:

--- Quote from: Zero999 on May 08, 2020, 05:30:41 pm ---
--- Quote from: rodpp on May 08, 2020, 05:02:48 pm ---
--- Quote from: Zero999 on May 08, 2020, 04:36:25 pm ---
--- Quote from: rodpp on May 08, 2020, 02:18:14 pm ---Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.

--- End quote ---
I wouldn't trust those graphs much, as they're subject to levels of testing.

--- End quote ---
Me too, you're correct. But it's the only data we have. Other than that, we will be only guessing.

Even with poor data, is better to be data driven than be based only in personal opinions.

--- End quote ---
I disagree.

Poor data is no better than opinion. It also depends on how well informed the opinion is. For example, I'd trust the opinion of a clinician, over data from the governement. if an emergency doctor believes COVID-19 cases are increasing because they're treating more and more people with an unknown repository disease and they can't test everyone, yet the government are reporting  a decrease in COVID-19 cases, then I'd certainly believe the doctor, over the government.

--- End quote ---
IMHO it is very important to look whether information is based on the opinion of one person riding a high horse versus a group of scientists which has produced a balanced view on a subject based on facts. In times like these there are lots of doctors and scientists (not necessarily experts in the field) looking to get their 15 minutes of fame.


--- Quote ---We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.

--- End quote ---
That is true. In the Netherlands there are also more people dying compared to long term averages. This data is collected by the government statistics bureau.
rodpp:

--- Quote from: nctnico on May 08, 2020, 06:21:42 pm ---
--- Quote from: Zero999 on May 08, 2020, 05:30:41 pm ---We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.

--- End quote ---
That is true. In the Netherlands there are also more people dying compared to long term averages. This data is collected by the government statistics bureau.

--- End quote ---

In the Brazilian city Manaus, state of Amazonas, hit hard by Covid19, the number of deaths in the last days was 108% above the average of the last 4 years in the same period. Of that 108%, 19% was reported as Covid19 and 89% not. Almost certainly we have underreported heavy, like for each 5 Covid19 deaths only 1 was reported.
cdev:
This is happening all around the US, endless heartbreaking stories where it emerges people who attempted to get medical care were sent home and them dying at home shortly afterward.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html
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