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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

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jeffheath:
I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.

DrG:

--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 10, 2020, 04:00:47 pm ---I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.

--- End quote ---

I believe you when you say that you don't understand the points of the maps and graphs.

Have you not read the PLANS that States and local Governments use and the FEDERAL guidelines for opening up? Do you not understand that the US is not going to have a ribbon cutting for Opening Back Up Day (despite the head clown's Easter fantasy). Do you understand the concept of PHASED reopening? If you did, then you understand that the point of all those many maps and graphs that made your head hurt is to illustrate the difficulty of the challenge. 

I also believe that you think "That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything". Did you not understand the concept of overwhelming health care resources and to avoid that situation (which has been experienced already in the US and is not simply a model prediction) might very well involve re-restricting "strategically"

We are coming from very different perspectives and the distance between them means to me that I can't discuss the issue with you. I am saying so, because it represents a personal change where I simply don't have the patience to "discuss" certain topics with certain people. You are entitled to your opinion and so am I.


Syntax Error:

--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 10, 2020, 04:00:47 pm ---I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.

--- End quote ---
I agree. In the UK and Europe we have some very highly populated areas. It's these regions where most people live, work, commute and are economically productive. Covid-19 infections and deaths are a function of population density. It's hard to sell the lockdown to Aussies who live in a country the size of Europe with a population half that of England. It is also hard to un-sell the lockdown to Londoners who live in an area similar to Gran Canaria with a population twice that of New Zealand. For high density population zones, reinfection is inevitable.

DrG:

--- Quote from: Syntax Error on May 10, 2020, 04:32:04 pm ---
--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 10, 2020, 04:00:47 pm ---I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.

--- End quote ---
I agree. /--/ For high density population zones, reinfection is inevitable.

--- End quote ---

How much is inevitable? What is the proportion of possible reinfection that is inevitable - all of it? Be specific - everybody knows that SOME additional infections will occur (I don't even know what you mean by 'reinfection' because that literally means an individual who had been infected became infected again), but how much? Seriously, please answer the question. You sound like a representative of the "The Herd Immunity Crowd-Think".

C'mon man, we should be able to do better than that.

nctnico:

--- Quote from: Syntax Error on May 10, 2020, 04:32:04 pm ---
--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 10, 2020, 04:00:47 pm ---I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.

--- End quote ---
I agree. In the UK and Europe we have some very highly populated areas. It's these regions where most people live, work, commute and are economically productive. Covid-19 infections and deaths are a function of population density. It's hard to sell the lockdown to Aussies who live in a country the size of Europe with a population half that of England. It is also hard to un-sell the lockdown to Londoners who live in an area similar to Gran Canaria with a population twice that of New Zealand. For high density population zones, reinfection is inevitable.

--- End quote ---
If this where true then the virus would have stayed in China. In reality virusses spread by people getting in close contact with eachother. Population density only matters to the point of the number of people potentially having close contacts.

Take the population density (on the left) versus the Covid-19 infection rates (on the right) in the Netherlands for example:

There is no clear relation between infections and density. There is some background information which explains the Covid-19 concentrations though. From the south-west to the north-east there is an area we call the 'Bible-belt' where a more than average number of people go to the church. In the south-east part there is an annual spring carnaval involving many indoor festivities which takes place in -you guessed it- Februari. This region extends into Germany which also has a high concentration of Covid-19 infections.

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