General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
NiHaoMike:
--- Quote from: cdev on May 13, 2020, 12:28:27 pm ---Heating and cooling systems that recycle stale air will need to be replaced by fresh air ventilation.
--- End quote ---
Just adding (non ozone) UVC lamps to the air handlers would be a much cheaper way to prevent HVAC systems from spreading diseases.
jeffheath:
--- Quote from: Nusa on May 13, 2020, 05:35:25 am ---
--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 13, 2020, 04:13:08 am ---I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
--- End quote ---
Plenty to compare it to. CV19 isn't over yet, but so far we haven't even come close to the death toll from the 1918 pandemic (675,000 US, 50 million worldwide). Remember the US population at the time was a bit over 100 million, so that's a pretty significant death ratio...
--- End quote ---
Well now I know how useful my history class in high school was! More people died from the Spanish flu than the war, and that disease was worse in every way, and lasted two years.Yet it gets glossed over, as they jump straight to the roaring twenties.
SerieZ:
--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 13, 2020, 01:56:06 pm ---
--- Quote from: Nusa on May 13, 2020, 05:35:25 am ---
--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 13, 2020, 04:13:08 am ---I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
--- End quote ---
Plenty to compare it to. CV19 isn't over yet, but so far we haven't even come close to the death toll from the 1918 pandemic (675,000 US, 50 million worldwide). Remember the US population at the time was a bit over 100 million, so that's a pretty significant death ratio...
--- End quote ---
Well now I know how useful my history class in high school was! More people died from the Spanish flu than the war, and that disease was worse in every way, and lasted two years.Yet it gets glossed over, as they jump straight to the roaring twenties.
--- End quote ---
That decade was generally awful.
Lets hope that this one does not attempt to surpass it. :wtf:
nctnico:
--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 13, 2020, 04:13:08 am ---I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
--- End quote ---
I think Dave meant something else; more like putting half a country in lockdown and the other halve not to see what the difference is. IMHO China and Italy provide enough data to know what the outcome of the latter will be. There are more countries on the world and the US isn't a special case.
The underlying problem is that a virus spreads exponentially if the reproduction ratio R0 is above 1. This means there is a very sensitive tipping point and doing too little results in an out-of-control situation quickly. So in order to stop a virus outbreak you have to start with maximum measures and then slowly relax while keeping R0 below 1. Countries which where quick to implement maximum measures stopped the outbreak quickly and can also relax the isolation measures sooner and get to 'controlled burn mode'.
paulca:
Pet peev but R0 is only relevant to patient 0. We have 4 million+ patients, so we are not at R0. The 0, as I understand it is the iteration number and is used to categorise the virus. Rn might not be equal to R0 because the 4000000 infected may not get infected again so the R value will decrease as the virus runs out of victims.
But I get what people mean, just being a pedant and pretending like I know what I'm talking about.
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