General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
cdev:
--- Quote from: nctnico on May 13, 2020, 03:44:04 pm ---
I think Dave meant something else; more like putting half a country in lockdown and the other halve not to see what the difference is. IMHO China and Italy provide enough data to know what the outcome of the latter will be. There are more countries on the world and the US isn't a special case.
The underlying problem is that a virus spreads exponentially if the reproduction ratio R0 is above 1. This means there is a very sensitive tipping point and doing too little results in an out-of-control situation quickly. So in order to stop a virus outbreak you have to start with maximum measures and then slowly relax while keeping R0 below 1. Countries which where quick to implement maximum measures stopped the outbreak quickly and can also relax the isolation measures sooner and get to 'controlled burn mode'.
--- End quote ---
What about the huge investments in all the infrastructure and equipment? Every second it sits unused costs money. In the old days they would have bought all-risk insurance. But now they don't have to.
paulca:
As a nicer story. In Belfast with money, equipment and staff being thrown at the NHS the kidney transplant team used the opportunity to clear their waiting list for transplants and have achieved a record 20 transplants since this shit started.
The NHS management in general clearly sucks, but I say they should keep who ever manages that department.
SiliconWizard:
--- Quote from: paulca on May 13, 2020, 03:48:45 pm ---Pet peev but R0 is only relevant to patient 0. We have 4 million+ patients, so we are not at R0. The 0, as I understand it is the iteration number and is used to categorise the virus. Rn might not be equal to R0 because the 4000000 infected may not get infected again so the R value will decrease as the virus runs out of victims.
--- End quote ---
Yes, but 4M people is still a pretty low figure compared to the 7B+ people in total. Of course we don't really know how many people have been infected, not counted and are now possibly immune to it - overall, possibly a much larger figure than 4M. But we just don't know.
DrG:
--- Quote from: Nusa on May 13, 2020, 05:35:25 am ---/------/
Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it. While not always true, there's a lot of truth in that saying.
--- End quote ---
Yes!
While some find it impossible to think how the US should have handled this, others, including leading scientists and even Senators within the US Government, have a very different take.
From yesterday's Senate hearing - you can watch it for yourself:
https://www.help.senate.gov/hearings/covid-19-safely-getting-back-to-work-and-back-to-school
0:53:23 Adm. Giriou (HHS, basically in charge of testing) states (proudly) that the US has now more than doubled the number of tests (per capita) conducted in S. Korea.
Note that the population of the US is ~6.36 TIMES the population of S. Korea. Note also that the virus showed up in SK and the US at the same time.
2:27.60 Senator Kaine (D) accurately notes that in March, SK had conducted 40X the amount of tests as the US.
3:44.47 Senator Romney (R) accurately notes that by March 5, SK had conducted 140,000 tests while the US had conducted 2000.
Now, the projection is that the US will be testing 40-50 MILLION / month by Sept (0:56:48) or 25-30 MILLION / month when school opens up in the fall (1:07:00) with the qualification, IF needed (2:33.45).
One can dwell on the differences between the two countries, but to do so only to rationalize is an error, in my view.
Part of learning from history is understanding what has and has not happened in the present. Yes, there are those that would say that it is better to not focus on "mistakes" made in the past and look forward. I think we should look at the past and look at the present BEFORE we look ahead.
It does not have to be a political party, us against them, issue. You do not have to be an MD, an immunologist or a scientist, but you do have to pay attention and you have to be willing to try to be a critical thinker. But if we (in the US) do not face up to what has happened and the failing (if not inexcusable bungling) of what has happened, we will be making this much worse.
SK New Cases
US New Cases
cdev:
Are they still only counting as "cases" people who tested positive for Covid-19? And as deaths people who were tested before they die, or died in a hospital?
Large numbers of people are dying at home and many, probably most were never tested. Also, its possible that single people without an active support network may have died at home and people may not realize they have died until the smell or something else causes a problem. (the sherriff shows up to evict them for unpaid rent?)
What I am saying is that the curve may still be rising. Perhaps not exponentially as before, but its impossible to tell.
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