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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

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DrG:

--- Quote from: cdev on May 13, 2020, 04:38:42 pm ---Are they still only counting as "cases" people who tested positive for Covid-19? And as deaths people who were tested before they die, or died in a hospital?

Large numbers of people are dying at home and many, probably most were never tested. Also, its possible that single people without an active support network may have died at home and people may not realize they have died until the smell or something else causes a problem. (the sherriff shows up to evict them for unpaid rent?)

What I am saying is that the curve may still be rising. Perhaps not exponentially as before, but its impossible to tell.

--- End quote ---

This point was asked by a Senator and addressed by Fauci (I don't have the time code). My memory is that he simply explained why the mortality figure is probably underestimated (including the example cases that you mentioned), that is, he answered why most SMEs think that it is underestimated, but, of course, he correctly, did not speculate on a different number.

cdev:
I wonder what they are going to do if it continues to grow.

Nusa:

--- Quote from: cdev on May 13, 2020, 04:59:36 pm ---I wonder what they are going to do if it continues to grow.

--- End quote ---

Coming from a speaker with no country code, that's an especially meaningless question if you don't define "they". There are so many "they"s that nearly all the likely answers will be reality in the worldwide context.

Even WITH a country code, "they" is pretty ambiguous, especially in a place like the USA....federal, state, county, city. Many of the most important decisions are happening at the state level. There are 50 of those, D.C., and several territories, many of which will follow different paths. Also Indian reservations, which have their own governments at a state-like level (to the endless frustration of the states they reside in, of course).

langwadt:

--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 13, 2020, 01:56:06 pm ---
--- Quote from: Nusa on May 13, 2020, 05:35:25 am ---
--- Quote from: jeffheath on May 13, 2020, 04:13:08 am ---I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.

--- End quote ---

Plenty to compare it to. CV19 isn't over yet, but so far we haven't even come close to the death toll from the 1918 pandemic (675,000 US, 50 million worldwide). Remember the US population at the time was a bit over 100 million, so that's a pretty significant death ratio...

--- End quote ---
Well now I know how useful my history class in high school was! More people died from the Spanish flu than the war, and that disease was worse in every way, and lasted two years.Yet it gets glossed over, as they jump straight to the roaring twenties.

--- End quote ---

and it mostly killed young adults, I guess everyone was used to lots of death from the WW1 meat grinder

nctnico:

--- Quote from: langwadt on May 13, 2020, 07:21:54 pm ---and it mostly killed young adults, I guess everyone was used to lots of death from the WW1 meat grinder

--- End quote ---
Recently I did some reading about how immunity against flu virusses works. It seems that you are immune forever to the first  type of virus that hits you and build up partial immunity (which wears off) to the virusses which come next. According to the paper I found this can be an explaination for why age groups are affected differently by a certain flu virus.

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