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| Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus |
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| cdev:
--- Quote from: james_s on May 25, 2020, 07:37:26 pm --- --- Quote from: thinkfat on May 25, 2020, 05:33:52 pm ---It was a Baptist church, not far from here. They claim to have held safe distance, but didn't wear face masks and were singing a lot. Meanwhile over 100 people were tested positive. --- End quote --- I have a hard time understanding the church thing. I won't claim to be any sort of expert on theological matters but I thought most of the mainstream gods people believe in are supposed to be omnipotent and ever-present. That being the case, I don't really grasp the dire importance of having everyone return to a specific building as soon as possible. Surely people can worship at home and sermons or whatever can be broadcast via various internet mediums? Allowing dozens or hundreds of people to gather in the same building seems like an exceptionally high risk activity with very little benefit. Sure there is the social/community aspect but how is that fundamentally different than gathering at a pub? :-// --- End quote --- Wherever people connect up with their support networks, and friends, there often is no online alternative, they are very important for people. People are just social animals, we start going crazy without human contact. |
| SerieZ:
--- Quote from: nctnico on May 25, 2020, 07:09:11 pm --- --- Quote from: SerieZ on May 25, 2020, 08:36:12 am ---That said and looking at US Media what I do find appalling is the absolute lack of empathy now towards young and middle aged people who just had their existences destroyed or future massively hampered. Sure we have to protect the elderly and find solutions, but the portrayal of those wanting to go back to work as dumb rednecks to be put on pillory as I've observed Media/Social Media leaves me without words. --- End quote --- It depends on how people protest. If they keep a safe distance it is OK but being close and touching eachother on purpose -> enter trumb redneck territory. And when it comes to existences being destroyed: that is the system without social security they voted for in the US. And yet; if you are able and sound of mind you can always find something or somewhere else to make money. A pandemic offers lots of new businiess opportunities which need workforce. --- End quote --- 1. It is easy to point at the extremists to portray a bad Image. This is something people profusely Ideological do all the time because it is easier than arguing and thus should never be taken without a big grain of salt. 2. Not really, I still do not get why people believe the US has absolutely no security net. That is simply not correct. But this is besides the point anyways as this Problem of future existences threatened also extends to countries with very big security nets - such as Germany. Many, many people will lose their Job or their businesses and future prospects and no, not everyone is happy with pity State handouts in the long term. Id argue very very few people are happy with that. People want Careers, Families and maybe even some Property. I do not think the state can replace these desires, even if some people are very adamant in trying to prove that otherwise - and objectively failing. 3. Sure, Crisis also brings Opportunity for some. |
| nctnico:
--- Quote from: SerieZ on May 26, 2020, 08:56:13 am ---People want Careers, Families and maybe even some Property. I do not think the state can replace these desires, even if some people are very adamant in trying to prove that otherwise - and objectively failing. --- End quote --- You have to put some numbers on it. For example: the economy of Germany is expected to shrink by 6.6% in 2020. That means that 93.4% of the businesses are still running. Other countries show similar numbers and the economic contraction is on par to that of credit-crunch of 2008. All in all the impact of the Covid19 pandemic is not the economic catastrophy people think it is. A few sectors like airlines, restaurants/bars are hit hard but others can continue. Since public transport is a no-go for many there is a boom in car sales around the corner. |
| SerieZ:
--- Quote from: nctnico on May 26, 2020, 09:43:40 am --- --- Quote from: SerieZ on May 26, 2020, 08:56:13 am ---People want Careers, Families and maybe even some Property. I do not think the state can replace these desires, even if some people are very adamant in trying to prove that otherwise - and objectively failing. --- End quote --- You have to put some numbers on it. For example: the economy of Germany is expected to shrink by 6.6% in 2020. That means that 93.4% of the businesses are still running. Other countries show similar numbers and the economic contraction is on par to that of credit-crunch of 2008. All in all the impact of the Covid19 pandemic is not the economic catastrophy people think it is. A few sectors like airlines, restaurants/bars are hit hard but others can continue. Since public transport is a no-go for many there is a boom in car sales around the corner. --- End quote --- Hmmm..., I am always careful with predictions... I still remember the absolute mess and struggle for people in 2008-9+years after. I lived in Spain back then as well and there it really was a shitshow for young people. I guess this makes me take a bit more emotional approach than only looking at the numbers. I am really worried. |
| Zero999:
Just a few points: Regarding the church: perhaps it was too early to reopen, but at least the contact tracing and tescting capacity is now good enough to link the outbreak to the church. If the desease isn't too widespread, then clusters can be isolated by only locking down small towns or just closing places, where there's a high concentration of cases. If this is just an isolated outbreak, then just close the local churches, rather than all of them. One of the myths about COVID-19 is it only affects old people and those with pre-existing health problems. Whilst it's true, the mortality rate is much higher for older people, a lot of relatively young and healthy people become very sick and will die without medical attention. At the moment one of my colleague's daughers is very ill in hospital with pnumonia due to COVID-19, at the young age of 21. The data we have gives an infection mortality rate of around 1%, but this in places with good universal heathcare such as China: without medical attention it could easilly be around five times that. Other deases don't stop because of the pandemic. If hospitals are overwhelmed, then plenty of others with easilly treatable illness will die. At the very least, it's important to keep the rate of infections below the healthcare capacity. Yes there are people who will make more money from the pandemic, making gloves, masks, UVC lamps etc. and there will be those who will have saved money, as they continiued to work, but not had the same opportunity to spend, since all the resturaunts and bars have been closed. Hopefully when everything finally does open back up again, those who have profited and saved will spend more, stimulating the recovery. Unfortunately since economies are linked internationally, the impact of local governments' decisions will depend on what happens to the rest of the world. Interestinly it seems that the pandemic itself will damage the economy, possibly more than any lockdown, if nothing is done. A study into the 1918 pandemic showed that cities which reacted earlier and had longer restrictions, recovered more quickly economically, than those which did less. Yes I accept there are flaws in the study: low frequency data, the cities weren't comparable with one another and things are different now, as back then the economy was less focused on services, than it is to day, but we should always learn from history and the negative effects of the pandemic itself shouldn't be ignored. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing |
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