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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

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DrG:

--- Quote from: maginnovision on June 27, 2020, 03:34:07 am ---I thought we were still working under the assumption that everyone will catch it and we just want hospitals available for when people need them? If that's still the modus operandi then I don't see how new cases matter. We can have a million cases a day if they don't overwhelm the hospitals.

--- End quote ---


Hospitals in hot spots ARE being filled to capacity.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospital-capacity-crosses-tipping-point-in-u-s-coronavirus-hot-spots-11585215006 https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/florida-doctor-covid-hospitals-now.html or just do a search for hospital capacity in hot spots.

I don't know who you mean by "we", but here is an alternative to your assumption "that everyone will catch it and we just want hospitals available for when people need them".

Lets test a whole lot of people and identify who has the virus and make sure that they are quarantined and hospitalized if necessary / possible. Let's trace all of their recent contacts and test them and do the same with the positives.

Let's practice reasonable NPI which includes social distancing and face coverings to minimize the infections.

Let's keep going like that until we have more effective treatments and an effective vaccine, knowing that doing so for a relatively short time means that an economic recovery will occur much quicker and failing to do so will just extend the misery and destruction.

That is what I thought 'we' wanted.

Of course, the 9000 new cases in Florida just today are more than 1000 the number of cases than Australia has ever seen over the entire course of the pandemic. Yet, seeing a few double digit outbreaks starts people there thinking about a second wave https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0626/1149750-australia-toilet-roll/.

Here, it just means that it is time to go to the beach. So, I guess it just all depends on the who the 'we' are.

Nusa:
Unidentified pronouns such as "we" and "they" don't belong in serious subjects on international forums. It's absolutely guaranteed that a significant portion of the readers will not know which group you are referring to. Just say who you mean directly.

PlainName:

--- Quote ---My state NSW has single digit cases a day (and many zero days recently), yet it's still managed as if it's a crisis that will spiral out of control
--- End quote ---

You're beginning to sound like Trump when, with just 15 cases nationwide, he said it would miraculously disappear, not a problem, just a bit of flu.

As an engineer you should realise that this is a great example of delayed feedback. There is around 2 weeks between stuffing a beach with bodies and seeing an increase in cases. So, yes, to prevent it going out of control you do have to hit it hard early since if you react when it's bad it's going to end up MUCH worse than you thought. Our 60+K excess deaths in six months shows what can happen if you dither for a week or so before getting your act in gear.

New Zealand shows that if you don't fuck about being wishy-washy you can return to real normality pretty quickly.

EEVblog:

--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on June 27, 2020, 04:52:41 am ---
--- Quote ---My state NSW has single digit cases a day (and many zero days recently), yet it's still managed as if it's a crisis that will spiral out of control
--- End quote ---
You're beginning to sound like Trump when, with just 15 cases nationwide, he said it would miraculously disappear, not a problem, just a bit of flu.

--- End quote ---

Bugger off with your ridiculous comparison, they aren't even remotely comparable statements.


--- Quote ---As an engineer you should realise that this is a great example of delayed feedback. There is around 2 weeks between stuffing a beach with bodies and seeing an increase in cases.

--- End quote ---
I'm well aware of that. We have had schools back fully for almost a month now, and gyms back for two weeks, plus a ton of other stuff open, people packing restaurants again for many weeks now. essentially zero new cases.
The great fear was schools, being the germ breeding ground that they are, but nothing has happened so far after that time, so seem to be saying something.
Based on the data we have now and the measures in place and general awareness (and fear), I can't really see any major wave up again here. But we'll no doubt be playing whack-a-mole for a long time. Although if we let 100,000 Chinese students back in, well...
Most of our new cases for the last month have been overseas travelers coming in, except for a recent spat in Victoria in the last few days.
If anyone is going to propose some 2nd wave doomsday scenario here based on the data we have now and the size and circumstances of our first wave, then they'd want to come up with a damn good hypothesis of how that's going to magically happen.

EEVblog:

--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on June 27, 2020, 04:52:41 am ---Our 60+K excess deaths in six months shows what can happen if you dither for a week or so before getting your act in gear.
--- End quote ---

If there is one thing this whole saga has shown it's that you can't and shouldn't compare countries. There seems to be a slew of parametric differences between countries, cultures, cities, and even possible physiological differences etc.
Again, we had a peak of 200 new cases a day here in NSW before it was knocked on the head very quickly and dropped away to bugger-all, and that's with our general she'll-be-right attitude here (e.g. hardly any masks, yobbo's still packing out beaches during the peak of it etc). If someone wants to propose it's going to much worse than that a 2nd time around then please present the hypothesis why and how that might happen.
This isn't some denial about it all, or wishful thinking, just based on the existing data here. YMMV greatly.

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