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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
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nctnico:

--- Quote from: EEVblog on June 27, 2020, 06:42:49 am ---
--- Quote ---As an engineer you should realise that this is a great example of delayed feedback. There is around 2 weeks between stuffing a beach with bodies and seeing an increase in cases.

--- End quote ---
I'm well aware of that. We have had schools back fully for almost a month now, and gyms back for two weeks, plus a ton of other stuff open, people packing restaurants again for many weeks now. essentially zero new cases.
The great fear was schools, being the germ breeding ground that they are, but nothing has happened so far after that time, so seem to be saying something.
Based on the data we have now and the measures in place and general awareness (and fear), I can't really see any major wave up again here. But we'll no doubt be playing whack-a-mole for a long time. Although if we let 100,000 Chinese students back in, well...
Most of our new cases for the last month have been overseas travelers coming in, except for a recent spat in Victoria in the last few days.
If anyone is going to propose some 2nd wave doomsday scenario here based on the data we have now and the size and circumstances of our first wave, then they'd want to come up with a damn good hypothesis of how that's going to magically happen.

--- End quote ---
Yep. You can take Germany as an example: they have localised areas where Covid-19 flares up again but with lots of testing in place it is possible to do targeted local lock-downs which seem to be effective (combined with social distancing in general). All in all I tend to agree a second wave is unlikely to happen in countries which have Covid-19 under control and people adhere to social distancing rules and do large scale testing. For a second wave to happen a really large number of people will have to abandon the social distancing.
EEVblog:
One really interesting thing is that the WHO are supposedly now saying that transmission via surfaces is uncommon, as is transmission from asymptomatic people. If so then that should make it pretty easy to contain in places that have already contained it through whatever mechanism.
Although again, there seems to great differences between counties that doesn't seem correlate with that, so it's still puzzling. I don't get the US stats at all, they seem crazy high, and from what I gather everyone over there is wearing masks like crazy.
I think there is likely to be a whole lot more going on with how this whole mechanism works that we don't know about yet, and why countries like Australia have been hardly hit at all. It's not like we have small cities and are ultra-paranoid about it, quite the opposite.
It's fascinating stuff, an analytical statisticians wet dream.
tom66:
The case rate for Florida doesn't look great:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

4th July is coming up, too.  And people are protesting over the requirement to wear masks (the fact that POTUS has said they are "stupid" really doesn't help)
nctnico:

--- Quote from: EEVblog on June 27, 2020, 09:21:17 am ---One really interesting thing is that the WHO are supposedly now saying that transmission via surfaces is uncommon, as is transmission from asymptomatic people. If so then that should make it pretty easy to contain in places that have already contained it through whatever mechanism.
Although again, there seems to great differences between counties that doesn't seem correlate with that, so it's still puzzling. I don't get the US stats at all, they seem crazy high, and from what I gather everyone over there is wearing masks like crazy.

--- End quote ---
You have to realise that a mask only helps against transmitting Covid-19; it doesn't help against receiving it because a mask doesn't cover your eyes. Eyes are (internally) directly connected to the nose. In theory one infected person without a mask can infect several people wearing a mask. For example if they travel together in a bus or visit a crowded place. I suspect that a large number of people are still attending large gatherings like churches in the US. Ofcourse the total lack of leadership in the US doesn't help either to make people understand what they should or shouldn't do.
bd139:
All praise sneezus  8)
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