General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
nctnico:
IMHO if the US managed to suppress Covid-19 like many of the other western and rich Asian countries did they would also have bought time to get people vaccinated. My gut feeling is that 50% to 75% of the fatalities that have occured and the many more that are likely to follow in the next months could have been avoided. Hindsight will tell but it is so sad to whitness.
rstofer:
Only in the US would I be required to wear a mask to the grocery store but not to a protest or political rally. It truly is insane!
Back to the topic: My wife has been working from home for the last couple of months. The company is trying to get their people back in the office and, right out of the gate, somebody tested positive. It has yet to be determined how many others were affected and 'contact tracing' is a joke because the American With Disabilities Act prevents disclosing WHO is infected so you can't really report whether you interacted with them of not!! There has been some resistance to coming back to the office (incubator).
--- Quote ---If a positive case is identified in the workplace, the employer is encouraged to investigate the exposure of others in the workplace without disclosing the name of the individual or any personally identifiable information about the person.
--- End quote ---
So, when you ask employees about their contacts, you are relying on their memory of an unremarkable encounter. If you could ask "Were you in contact with Joe?" it might pull up an entirely different memory of contacts. But that question can't be asked.
See 3rd bullet under Confidentiality under the ADA
https://www.natlawreview.com/article/covid-19-what-employers-need-to-know-about-hipaa
Yup! We're insane!
Zero999:
--- Quote from: nctnico on June 28, 2020, 07:39:28 pm ---IMHO if the US managed to suppress Covid-19 like many of the other western and rich Asian countries did they would also have bought time to get people vaccinated. My gut feeling is that 50% to 75% of the fatalities that have occured and the many more that are likely to follow in the next months could have been avoided. Hindsight will tell but it is so sad to whitness.
--- End quote ---
Sorry, that's overly optimistic. Antibody tests show the percentage of the population infected in areas with relatively high levels of infection, such as the UK, is under 10%. The UK's Office for National Statics study estimates just under 6.8% of the population had been exposed to COVID-19 at the end of May. It'll be a little higher now, but not much, due to social distancing, so let's say 7%. This means we're only at 10% of the 70% required for herd immunity, so we can expect a huge increase in deaths, before we get a vaccine or a decent therapeutic. Hopefully dexamethasone will mean ten times the current number of deaths won't happen, even if we don't get a vaccine or any new therapeutics.
--- Quote ---As of 24 May 2020, 6.78% (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%) of individuals from whom blood samples were taken tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus (COVID-19). This is based on blood test results from 885 individuals since the start of the study on 26 April 2020.
--- End quote ---
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020
EDIT: Just reread your post and if our governments handle this properly, then I suspect your gut feeling is right: we're at around 50% to 75% of the total fatality rate for COVID-19. This might be true in Europe and perhaps the richer Asian countries, but I doubt it's the case worldwide, as most countries are much poorer. Hopefully the US government will sort it out soon.
DrG:
--- Quote from: tom66 on June 28, 2020, 07:02:29 pm ---... I suspect by the time it has torn through the country it will be easily 500k deaths, ...
--- End quote ---
I don't think so. Obviously, we both hope that you are wrong, but I think that the calculated case fatality rate (that is, number of fatalities as a proportion of confirmed cases) has been steadily declining and will continue to do so. I have thought about it a lot and I think that there are three main reasons for that drop...
First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities - an incredibly sobering statistic. There are plenty of vulnerable elderly who are not in those kinds of facilities but it is clear to me that those very vulnerable folks (and some workers) were just incredibly hard hit.
Second is an improvement in the SOP practiced by medical personnel. This has been aided by a couple of drugs with at least some efficacy - we are learning to treat cases a bit better.
Third is that I think we are seeing a change in the distribution of documented cases toward the lower end of the age groups and they are less vulnerable. Of course, as we all know, they can and do infect others.
DrG:
--- Quote from: james_s on June 28, 2020, 06:59:28 pm ---....
At this point my view is that we failed, the war is lost. All there is to do now is look out for ourselves as best we can and watch the body count climb....
--- End quote ---
I try to remain optimistic and, like many folks, I have my good days and bad days with that. I am optimistic because of some solid successes in the some areas of the US and because I believe that we will have some good treatments coming and vaccines following shortly thereafter. This, despite some of the spectacular failures we are seeing.
--- Quote from: james_s on June 28, 2020, 06:59:28 pm ---... Then the political rallies are equally stupid and arguably far less necessary. I don't really understand the point of those at all...
--- End quote ---
Hopefully, it is the farewell tour. [sorry, I just couldn't resist]
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