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| Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus |
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| Zero999:
--- Quote from: DrG on June 28, 2020, 08:39:38 pm --- --- Quote from: tom66 on June 28, 2020, 07:02:29 pm ---... I suspect by the time it has torn through the country it will be easily 500k deaths, ... --- End quote --- I don't think so. Obviously, we both hope that you are wrong, but I think that the calculated case fatality rate (that is, number of fatalities as a proportion of confirmed cases) has been steadily declining and will continue to do so. I have thought about it a lot and I think that there are three main reasons for that drop... First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities - an incredibly sobering statistic. There are plenty of vulnerable elderly who are not in those kinds of facilities but it is clear to me that those very vulnerable folks (and some workers) were just incredibly hard hit. Second is an improvement in the SOP practiced by medical personnel. This has been aided by a couple of drugs with at least some efficacy - we are learning to treat cases a bit better. Third is that I think we are seeing a change in the distribution of documented cases toward the lower end of the age groups and they are less vulnerable. Of course, as we all know, they can and do infect others. --- End quote --- I hope you're right, but I think 500k deaths is a reasonable estimate. The R is above one in many areas, so it's growing exponentially again. People seem to be complying less with the social distancing. As someone who has never stepped foot in the country, I'm only going by news coverages, so I could be wrong and hope I am. I'm also worried that hospitals will become overwhelmed and have heard that's already the case in some areas. Without treatment, the IFR will be several times higher than it is. Hopefully the authorities will get a handle on enforcing social distancing and contact tracing, until a vaccine or better therapeutic comes along. If this never happens, then 500k deaths is on the optimistic end of the spectrum. |
| SilverSolder:
--- Quote from: Zero999 on June 28, 2020, 09:31:29 pm --- --- Quote from: DrG on June 28, 2020, 08:39:38 pm --- --- Quote from: tom66 on June 28, 2020, 07:02:29 pm ---... I suspect by the time it has torn through the country it will be easily 500k deaths, ... --- End quote --- I don't think so. Obviously, we both hope that you are wrong, but I think that the calculated case fatality rate (that is, number of fatalities as a proportion of confirmed cases) has been steadily declining and will continue to do so. I have thought about it a lot and I think that there are three main reasons for that drop... First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities - an incredibly sobering statistic. There are plenty of vulnerable elderly who are not in those kinds of facilities but it is clear to me that those very vulnerable folks (and some workers) were just incredibly hard hit. Second is an improvement in the SOP practiced by medical personnel. This has been aided by a couple of drugs with at least some efficacy - we are learning to treat cases a bit better. Third is that I think we are seeing a change in the distribution of documented cases toward the lower end of the age groups and they are less vulnerable. Of course, as we all know, they can and do infect others. --- End quote --- I hope you're right, but I think 500k deaths is a reasonable estimate. The R is above one in many areas, so it's growing exponentially again. People seem to be complying less with the social distancing. As someone who has never stepped foot in the country, I'm only going by news coverages, so I could be wrong and hope I am. I'm also worried that hospitals will become overwhelmed and have heard that's already the case in some areas. Without treatment, the IFR will be several times higher than it is. Hopefully the authorities will get a handle on enforcing social distancing and contact tracing, until a vaccine or better therapeutic comes along. If this never happens, then 500k deaths is on the optimistic end of the spectrum. --- End quote --- Even the dumbest, thickest people will "get the message" once family members start to die off - It was easy enough to be brave and "free" while the disease hadn't reached their neck of the woods yet. |
| james_s:
--- Quote from: rstofer on June 28, 2020, 07:53:11 pm ---Only in the US would I be required to wear a mask to the grocery store but not to a protest or political rally. It truly is insane! --- End quote --- Honestly I think it's just being pragmatic. I mean if you've got a massive lawless angry mob that is behaving entirely emotionally, torching buildings and police cars and physically assaulting cops are you going to try to demand they wear masks? Likewise the political rallies, if the president is refusing to wear a mask and not requiring attendees to wear them who is going to make that requirement? It's pretty clear to me that control of the situation was entirely lost and the powers that be simply gave up. Like everything else, masks became political with the decision to wear or not wear one becoming another form of virtue signalling. Ordinary law abiding people going to the grocery store are a lot more likely to behave rationally and comply with mask requirements than angry mobs that are already out of control. |
| james_s:
--- Quote from: SilverSolder on June 28, 2020, 10:51:54 pm ---Even the dumbest, thickest people will "get the message" once family members start to die off - It was easy enough to be brave and "free" while the disease hadn't reached their neck of the woods yet. --- End quote --- If you look at it mathematically I don't think there are going to be enough of them for everyone to get the message. Looking at just the USA, we have 330 million people. If the death count hits 500k, that's 1 out of every 660 people in the country dying. Even that big number of deaths is small enough that a majority of us will probably not have someone we personally know well die from it. 500k is a lot of people, but we'd probably need 10 times that many dead before the effects are immediately visible to the majority of the population. |
| EEVblog:
--- Quote from: DrG on June 28, 2020, 08:39:38 pm ---First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities --- End quote --- As sad as that is, if you are talking correct numbers then you should probably subtract the numbers of elderly that would have died from flu like viruses annually anyway. In effect just lumping covid in as another one of the infectious respiratory illnesses which is what it technically is. In my mum's small retirement village alone there are half a dozen deaths a year due to the flu, they "drop like flies every flu season" to use my mum's words. Yes, I've been saying from the start that this whole thing is arse-backwards in terms of who's being protected. There should be police and a testing station and a system in place at the entry to every retirement village. |
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