General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
DrG:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on June 28, 2020, 11:53:28 pm ---
--- Quote from: DrG on June 28, 2020, 08:39:38 pm ---First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities
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As sad as that is, if you are talking correct numbers then you should probably subtract the numbers of elderly that would have died from flu like viruses annually anyway. In effect just lumping covid in as another one of the infectious respiratory illnesses which is what it technically is. In my mum's small retirement village alone there are half a dozen deaths a year due to the flu, they "drop like flies every flu season" to use my mum's words.
Yes, I've been saying from the start that this whole thing is arse-backwards in terms of who's being protected. There should be police and a testing station and a system in place at the entry to every retirement village.
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You will get no argument from me on how backwards this has been. The worst of what happened I think was at the medicaid-type facilities. Folks who have no money left for much of anything. That might also mean the most lower-skilled labor and the less sufficient amount of labor. Maybe I am being to pessimistic, but I think that they had only later Government involvement and the numbers were already staggering.
In one state, the Governor went out and bought 500K testing kits from, and get this, South Korea. After a while people wanted to know where all the deployment was and he told them - to cover the State's nursing homes.
As just a technical matter, they track documented corona deaths. There has been a lot of discussion about that and we (in the US) started added 'probable' deaths, but they make up a much smaller percentage. So, yeah, many of these folks were very vulnerable to a lot of things like all of the usual flu strains, but this is what was documented for that bin.
Nobody with much SME thinks that those documented case numbers are inflated - that is, most everyone thinks it is a low estimate.
But they got a handle on it eventually. People are basically not allowed to visit and some cases where the family looks through the window and with a phone is how they are spending their last days and it is heart wrenching.
Here is today's graph of corona deaths in the US showing what I was saying before regarding the decrease.
PlainName:
--- Quote ---This means we're only at 10% of the 70% required for herd immunity, so we can expect a huge increase in deaths, before we get a vaccine or a decent therapeutic.
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Whilst we'll get a large number, the rate will tail off as the herd becomes immune, won't it? So overall the number would be large but it would be spread out, and be a decreasing rate.
james_s:
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on June 29, 2020, 01:20:33 am ---Whilst we'll get a large number, the rate will tail off as the herd becomes immune, won't it? So overall the number would be large but it would be spread out, and be a decreasing rate.
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I hope so, but I don't think anybody really knows for sure yet.
In hindsight the lockdown was probably futile as we didn't do it in a coordinated and complete enough fashion to really help in the long run. The constitution makes it virtually impossible to ban all travel between states, counties or other arbitrary boundaries and the leadership at the top was clearly not interested in orchestrating anything. A less drastic lockdown combined with much more aggressive measures such as masks, sanitation, distancing where possible and other changes likely could have provided similar benefits without quite as drastic of an economic impact and perhaps more importantly the mental health impact. I strongly suspect that the combination of general anger/frustration/stress, uncertainty and large scale unemployment is a very significant contributor to the riots and unrest. People who are employed and busy don't have time to camp downtown for weeks at a time and are much less inclined to burn down the businesses that employ them.
Nusa:
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on June 29, 2020, 01:20:33 am ---
--- Quote ---This means we're only at 10% of the 70% required for herd immunity, so we can expect a huge increase in deaths, before we get a vaccine or a decent therapeutic.
--- End quote ---
Whilst we'll get a large number, the rate will tail off as the herd becomes immune, won't it? So overall the number would be large but it would be spread out, and be a decreasing rate.
--- End quote ---
The death rate will be dramatic once the health system becomes overwhelmed and doesn't have the capacity to save many of those that could have been saved. Which will happen long before we get to 70% in many places if things aren't slowed down. Never mind the fact that many of those coming out of hospital alive will have permanent organ damage from either the disease or the treatment. The desirable route to herd immunity remains vaccination, when one is developed that works. But otherwise you're right...the death rate will decrease when the most vulnerable people are dead.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
SilverSolder:
--- Quote from: james_s on June 29, 2020, 01:32:54 am ---
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on June 29, 2020, 01:20:33 am ---Whilst we'll get a large number, the rate will tail off as the herd becomes immune, won't it? So overall the number would be large but it would be spread out, and be a decreasing rate.
--- End quote ---
I hope so, but I don't think anybody really knows for sure yet.
In hindsight the lockdown was probably futile as we didn't do it in a coordinated and complete enough fashion to really help in the long run. The constitution makes it virtually impossible to ban all travel between states, counties or other arbitrary boundaries and the leadership at the top was clearly not interested in orchestrating anything. A less drastic lockdown combined with much more aggressive measures such as masks, sanitation, distancing where possible and other changes likely could have provided similar benefits without quite as drastic of an economic impact and perhaps more importantly the mental health impact. I strongly suspect that the combination of general anger/frustration/stress, uncertainty and large scale unemployment is a very significant contributor to the riots and unrest. People who are employed and busy don't have time to camp downtown for weeks at a time and are much less inclined to burn down the businesses that employ them.
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The lockdown has worked well in some states - e.g. CT has gone from one of the worst, to one of the best.
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