| General > General Technical Chat |
| Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus |
| << < (340/447) > >> |
| PlainName:
--- Quote from: nctnico on June 29, 2020, 12:01:49 am --- --- Quote from: EEVblog on June 28, 2020, 11:53:28 pm --- --- Quote from: DrG on June 28, 2020, 08:39:38 pm ---First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities --- End quote --- As sad as that is, if you are talking correct numbers then you should probably subtract the numbers of elderly that would have died from flu like viruses annually anyway. --- End quote --- And add the numbers they left out (if any). People doing those studies aren't stupid. World wide you can see spikes in death rates which are far higher compared to the regular death rates. --- End quote --- The excess deaths figure may be rather more subtle than first appears. Sure, the numbers directly attributable to covid19 (that is, those who died because they caught it) bump the graph up, but there could be significant numbers indirectly attributable. Dave points out those that would have died anyway, but not mentioned much are those that essentially died through being scared of covid19. One factor in health services not being overwhelmed as they were predicted to be may have been that people were just unwilling to risk going to hospital. There was a significant dip in A&E attendance figures, and it's known that some people delayed seeking treatment until their issue was much further along that would otherwise have been the case. Had there not been a pandemic scare, many would have survived simply because they sought treatment sooner. Additionallly, there was a big fuss about cancer patients not receiving their normal treatment. That wouldn't've done their prospects much good at all, and probably some of them are yet to die early because of covid19 albeit not because they caught it. |
| james_s:
--- Quote from: SilverSolder on June 29, 2020, 02:27:21 am ---The lockdown has worked well in some states - e.g. CT has gone from one of the worst, to one of the best. --- End quote --- As it has also here in Washington. Unfortunately it only takes one person from some more infected area to set off another outbreak here and put us right back where we started. The lockdown indeed worked but with it not being coordinated between states and with nothing to prevent people from freely moving across state lines it's a bit like trying to keep all the pee in one part of the swimming pool. |
| paulca:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on June 27, 2020, 09:21:17 am ---One really interesting thing is that the WHO are supposedly now saying that transmission via surfaces is uncommon, as is transmission from asymptomatic people. --- End quote --- This was a bit of a f*** up on many counts. The first report I seen from WHO said, "Less likely than previously thought", but this got reworded by every news agency and quickly became "very unlikely" a significantly different quantifier. When pressed WHO admitted they had no data on asymptomatic transmission. https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/ Currently their website says: --- Quote ---Can COVID-19 be caught from a person who has no symptoms? COVID-19 is mainly spread through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing or has other symptoms such as fever or tiredness. Many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true in the early stages of the disease. It is possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has just a mild cough and does not feel ill. Some reports have indicated that people with no symptoms can transmit the virus. It is not yet known how often it happens. WHO is assessing ongoing research on the topic and will continue to share updated findings. --- End quote --- Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses 29/06/2020 I think we are seeing a wide spread of cases and death rates across different locations. My own local has currently emptied ICU wards of CovId patients and had several days with no new cases. However, the airports are open and England is seeing spots of increase again in some places and yet flights operate back and forward for business travellers every day. My point is... if your county/locale has only a handful of cases, coming in contact with these is rare, so spread is very slow. However it may not take long for that to change. This is not over by far. It would be a shame to ruin it all and see cases rising rapidly in places that have beaten them down so well. |
| Zero999:
--- Quote from: james_s on June 28, 2020, 11:22:54 pm --- --- Quote from: SilverSolder on June 28, 2020, 10:51:54 pm ---Even the dumbest, thickest people will "get the message" once family members start to die off - It was easy enough to be brave and "free" while the disease hadn't reached their neck of the woods yet. --- End quote --- If you look at it mathematically I don't think there are going to be enough of them for everyone to get the message. Looking at just the USA, we have 330 million people. If the death count hits 500k, that's 1 out of every 660 people in the country dying. Even that big number of deaths is small enough that a majority of us will probably not have someone we personally know well die from it. 500k is a lot of people, but we'd probably need 10 times that many dead before the effects are immediately visible to the majority of the population. --- End quote --- Fortuntely people don't have to die for others to get the message, just very ill will do. In the UK, 43k have died from COVID-19, which is a tiny fraction of the 68 million population. The official number of cases is 311k, which again is still small, compared to the population, but this is due to lack of testing during the peak, so the actual number will be around ten times that or I hope so, because the case fatality rate would be very high. This mean most people know of at least one person who's had it, with a good number of them being sick enough to worry. Unfortunately, once the number of infections reaches this level, getting them down to managable levels requires taking drastic measures. |
| tom66:
The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread. What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available. |
| Navigation |
| Message Index |
| Next page |
| Previous page |