General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
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Sredni:

--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on March 13, 2020, 03:01:17 pm ---Doesn't matter how many thousands or millions get it and carry on as normal, it's that small number that really do need critical care that this is all about.

--- End quote ---

Emphasis mine.

This is the problem. It won't be a small number.

I posted a picture that summarised the strategy of many governments so far, but Dave took it down. I guess Australia is still in the denial phase.
Anyway, that 20% requiring hospitalization (more so the 10% with severe symptoms and the 5% requiring intensive care) will kill the health system of most countries if it is not aggressively distributed over a very long period of time.
bd139:
Yep. 0.5% will kill the healthcare system which is the problem. I think we actually only have hospital capacity for 0.24% of the population here and it’s already over capacity when idling. Routine medical problems with preventable mortality outcomes suddenly get a lot more dangerous.
nctnico:

--- Quote from: Sredni on March 13, 2020, 06:25:38 pm ---
--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on March 13, 2020, 03:01:17 pm ---Doesn't matter how many thousands or millions get it and carry on as normal, it's that small number that really do need critical care that this is all about.

--- End quote ---

Emphasis mine.

This is the problem. It won't be a small number.

I posted a picture that summarised the strategy of many governments so far, but Dave took it down. I guess Australia is still in the denial phase.
Anyway, that 20% requiring hospitalization (more so the 10% with severe symptoms and the 5% requiring intensive care) will kill the health system of most countries if it is not aggressively distributed over a very long period of time.

--- End quote ---
Care to explain those numbers? The problem I see with the statistics surrounding the Coronavirus is that it is only based on known / tested cases. However there is no data at all about how many people get infected but aren't registered as being infected. Based on the information currently available a Coronavirus infection is like the flu for a significant number of people. Before you can throw numbers around you need to know the total numbers and also look at the age distribution of the population you base the numbers on. To know for sure you'll need to test a representative part of the population for Coronavirus (anti-bodies). That will probably happen after the dust settles.

Either way dunkemhigh is right that the spread of the virus must be slowed down in order not to overload the health care system with more severe cases. OTOH a major part of a real solution to prevent a future outbreak is to allow the majority of the people to get infected in a controlled manner and vaccinate the weakest (the latter like it is done with the 'ordinary' flu). That way the virus won't spread as much as it does now because most people have built up resistance. IOW: you don't really want to contain it like they did in China because it will only drag out the problem over a longer period of time. China is likely to get hit by an outbreak again.
0xdeadbeef:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 13, 2020, 05:55:45 pm ---I wonder what people will use to cook that kind of food in case of real trouble. By the time things get so bad you need the food then the gas, water & electricity will be shutdown too.

--- End quote ---
While I agree that people overreact a little regarding toilet paper, flour and noodles, I guess the main concern is being condemned to home quarantine for two weeks or so, not the Zombie apocalypse where gas and electricity breaks down. Being forced to stay in your home for two weeks is a very realistic scenario right now, so it's not totally crazy that people think about having something to eat/drink and wipe their asses.
Again, buying toilet paper for a half a year is indeed insane but having a supply for two weeks or so is somewhat advisable right now.
coppice:

--- Quote from: nctnico on March 13, 2020, 05:55:45 pm ---I wonder what people will use to cook that kind of food in case of real trouble. By the time things get so bad you need the food then the gas, water & electricity will be shutdown too.

--- End quote ---
Some people are forward thinking. They've been hoarding both toilet rools and rice. One can be burned to cook the other. This works especially well if after buying a pile of toilet rolls someone remembers they have a bidet.
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