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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

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coppice:

--- Quote from: tom66 on June 29, 2020, 10:52:35 am ---The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread.  What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available.

--- End quote ---
So, you expect some amount of lockdown to continue for years, and perhaps indefinitely? All the "vaccine is just around the corner" claims ignore that vaccines have always taken years to reach the market, and effective vaccines for rapidly changing virii have generally defeated the vaccine industry. Any plan based on a vaccine appearing is not really a plan at all. Its wishful thinking. A real plan has to work without a vaccine, with the appearance of a vaccine being a nice bonus that makes life easier.

Zero999:

--- Quote from: coppice on June 29, 2020, 11:00:02 am ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on June 29, 2020, 10:52:35 am ---The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread.  What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available.

--- End quote ---
So, you expect some amount of lockdown to continue for years, and perhaps indefinitely? All the "vaccine is just around the corner" claims ignore that vaccines have always taken years to reach the market, and effective vaccines for rapidly changing virii have generally defeated the vaccine industry. Any plan based on a vaccine appearing is not really a plan at all. Its wishful thinking. A real plan has to work without a vaccine, with the appearance of a vaccine being a nice bonus that makes life easier.

--- End quote ---
Well no, not quite, once the numeber of cases has fallen to low enough levels, the lockdown can be largely replaced with, contact tracing, testing and isolation of infected people. Unfortunately, I think we'll need some social distancing measures to be in place for quite some time. In the UK, so far we've managed to get most shops open and people back to work, without a resurgence in cases. The next step will whether we can reopen hairdressers and pubs, without the R going above 1, which I think is possible, as long as the proposed measures are implemented, which involve keeping groups of people apart and no lound music, so people don't have to shout. I'm cynical about nightclubs reopening and large parties taking place, without a second wave.

My worry is the second wave will occur during the run up to Chrismas. If we want to avoid a second wave, this Chrismas should be different. People should only visit their immediate family. There should be no massive parties, with people getting drink and dancing with one another. Companies should organise separate parties for individual teams and not permit them to bring guests. We can enjoy ourselves without all of that bollocks.

paulca:

--- Quote from: Zero999 on June 29, 2020, 11:19:53 am ---We can enjoy ourselves without all of that bollocks.

--- End quote ---

Yes grandpa.

tom66:

--- Quote from: coppice on June 29, 2020, 11:00:02 am ---
--- Quote from: tom66 on June 29, 2020, 10:52:35 am ---The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread.  What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available.

--- End quote ---
So, you expect some amount of lockdown to continue for years, and perhaps indefinitely? All the "vaccine is just around the corner" claims ignore that vaccines have always taken years to reach the market, and effective vaccines for rapidly changing virii have generally defeated the vaccine industry. Any plan based on a vaccine appearing is not really a plan at all. Its wishful thinking. A real plan has to work without a vaccine, with the appearance of a vaccine being a nice bonus that makes life easier.

--- End quote ---

What is the alternative?  These countries (UK and US) have screwed up and failed to contain the virus.  It is wild in the community.  If we say ~70,000 deaths due to CV19 (40k reported, 30k other) in the UK, but only 7% of the general population has had the virus, then to let it rip through the rest of the UK would mean we expect around 1 million deaths in the UK alone. That is worse than Spanish Flu.  (228,000 dead in UK estimated.)

If we were New Zealand or S.Korea we could look at opening borders with the requirement for virus testing upon entry (at traveller's expense). Tests already exist that can give a positive result within 10 minutes, so it is believably practical to do that at the airport and allow tourists back into the country cautiously.

But we can't do that. And neither can be sustain (economically and socially) total lockdown endlessly.  But some form of lockdown is going to be needed for the next year at least, and possibly longer. As you say, vaccines are not an overnight affair.  It's going to hurt.  Some hospitality businesses may never recover.

This government is already talking about opening up air corridors - I just cannot see that going well. One infected person on an aircraft with recirculated air is suddenly 200 infected visitors.

Nusa:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-hospitals-hit-100-base-ICU-capacity-15372256.php

--- Quote ---Texas Medical Center hospitals stopped updating key metrics showing the stress rising numbers of COVID-19 patients were placing on their facilities for more than three days, rattling policymakers and residents who have relied on the information to gauge the spread of the coronavirus.

The institutions — which together constitute the world’s largest medical complex — reported Thursday that their base intensive care capacity had hit 100 percent for the first time during the pandemic and was on pace to exceed an “unsustainable surge capacity” of intensive care beds by July 6.
--- End quote ---

Texas's biggest problem is in Houston (population about 2.4 million), which is going to be worth watching as they fall into the rabbit hole.

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