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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

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cdev:
It must really suck for people whose jobs involve a lot of confined places and breathing other people's air.



--- Quote from: paulca on June 29, 2020, 03:31:47 pm ---
--- Quote from: Nusa on June 29, 2020, 03:14:19 pm ---Try:
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput  for daily figures on passengers passing through security in the USA.

--- End quote ---

Who in their right mind would want to go there?  Have you not seen the news?

--- End quote ---

cdev:
That reminds me of Dockweiler Beach in LA, which is right underneath the filight path for LAX, one of the busiest airports in the US. I wonder what its like today?


--- Quote from: Nusa on June 29, 2020, 01:42:29 pm ---
--- Quote from: paulca on June 29, 2020, 01:19:36 pm ---Large airports land 747s every 5 minutes.

--- End quote ---
That's all in the past, at least in passenger service. Most of the 747's still flying today only carry cargo, not passengers. The rest are mostly parked, and many will never see passenger service again. Most of the much newer and more efficient wide-body jets (like B777 or A380) are also parked. Expect narrow-body jets to carry passenger load between most points. It will take years, no joke, for the demand to return to previous levels.

--- End quote ---

coppice:

--- Quote from: Nusa on June 29, 2020, 01:42:29 pm ---
--- Quote from: paulca on June 29, 2020, 01:19:36 pm ---Large airports land 747s every 5 minutes.

--- End quote ---
That's all in the past, at least in passenger service. Most of the 747's still flying today only carry cargo, not passengers. The rest are mostly parked, and many will never see passenger service again. Most of the much newer and more efficient wide-body jets (like B777 or A380) are also parked. Expect narrow-body jets to carry passenger load between most points. It will take years, no joke, for the demand to return to previous levels.

--- End quote ---
This is being exacerbated by COVID-19, but it was happening anyway. The 747 and A380 have been rapidly dying off in recent years, in favour of the 777, 787 and A350.

PlainName:

--- Quote ---70% of 68 million is 47.6 million and the excess death rate is 1.4% per case, giving a total of 2/3 million excess deaths
--- End quote ---

JH reports 10m worldwide infections, 500K deaths. On that basis, 47m infected would be worth 2m deaths.

Zero999:

--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on June 29, 2020, 05:32:40 pm ---
--- Quote ---70% of 68 million is 47.6 million and the excess death rate is 1.4% per case, giving a total of 2/3 million excess deaths
--- End quote ---

JH reports 10m worldwide infections, 500K deaths. On that basis, 47m infected would be worth 2m deaths.

--- End quote ---
No, that's a totally unrealistic estimate, because the number of infections worldwide is much higher than that. Antigen testing (this is whether the person has it at the time or not) is heavily biased in favour of those who have symptoms, or have been exposed to those who are ill. We know that most people experience a very mild illness and some people never experience any symptoms. No one will bother to get tested, if they feel fine and haven't come into contact with a sick person. It's true the number of deaths will also be higher, than the number reported, but not by the same ratio, as the infection rate. The numbers I gave are more realistic, because the number of infections is based on a random sample of antibody tests, which test whether or not someone has had the virus in the past and will include asymptomatic cases. If we do the same as you have done for the UK, which has 311,965 cases and 43,575 deaths, then we get a case fatality rate of nearly 14%, which is more than a factor of ten greater than the real number, because the randomly sampled antibody tests show a much greater proportion of the population has been infected than the antigen tests show.

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