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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

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dietert1:
US Americans are very self confident and slow to accept their fate. When you look at the statistics web site linked above, there are few states with more than 1000 dead from Covid19 per million people. And those are the states with the lowest number of new infections, which indicates low virus activity. So people are learning it the hard way. In this sense Trump and his government are representative.

Regards, Dieter

PlainName:

--- Quote from: SilverSolder on July 24, 2020, 08:18:45 pm ---So if we had 200 new cases yesterday and 220 new ones today,  we would presumably agree that the trend is going the wrong direction and we need to reverse it.  No matter what the other factors are.

--- End quote ---

In a one-word answer, yes.

But... in a population of 300m those figures are nothing. For a village of 1000 it's pretty disastrous. And if the previous day was, say, 170 and the day before 100 then it might be the wrong direction but it's coming around.

SilverSolder:

--- Quote from: dunkemhigh on July 24, 2020, 11:43:27 pm ---
--- Quote from: SilverSolder on July 24, 2020, 08:18:45 pm ---So if we had 200 new cases yesterday and 220 new ones today,  we would presumably agree that the trend is going the wrong direction and we need to reverse it.  No matter what the other factors are.

--- End quote ---

In a one-word answer, yes.

But... in a population of 300m those figures are nothing. For a village of 1000 it's pretty disastrous. And if the previous day was, say, 170 and the day before 100 then it might be the wrong direction but it's coming around.

--- End quote ---


Because of exponential growth, even 1 single case is not "nothing" because you know everyone will eventually be infected if the spread is not curbed.

So we are right back to looking at the daily numbers...  whether they are in the tens or the ten thousands,  we need them to be trending down.


PlainName:

--- Quote ---because you know everyone will eventually be infected if the spread is not curbed
--- End quote ---

In a large population with high density areas dotted around, you might have a better chance of stopping the spread than with a small population where a third of them already have it. So, no, I don't think it's necessarily a given that everyone will eventually be infected. New Zealand shows that it can be stopped.

SilverSolder:
Another way to see the daily new cases is to look at the slope of the totals.

If you look at the slopes for CA, FL, TX you can see that this is heading for a monumental disaster unless something changes soon.

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