General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
MK14:
--- Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 27, 2020, 09:47:42 am ---
--- Quote from: MK14 on July 27, 2020, 09:12:41 am ---[]-Successful/reliable treatments, may be created. Which although the virus may still be around, if you can treat it, and the death rate, becomes very small.
--- End quote ---
The death rate is already very small, comparable to a normal flu (650k/yr), and less that half the deaths/yr in car accidents (1400k/yr).
--- Quote --- Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year
--- End quote ---
--- End quote ---
It is not quite that simple.
If we went back to 100% life as normal, i.e. like things were in 2018.
The car death rates, would stay around the same.
The flu death rates would stay around the same.
But, the Coronavirus, death rate, would exponentially climb, until (experts seem to say), something like 70% to 80%+, of the population is infected, when so called herd immunity, will (hopefully) kick in and naturally combat the R number.
But additionally, hospitals, would likely be over-whelmed, which would be likely to lead to hospitals having to make very hard decisions, and ration, who can and can't be treated. E.g. Viable Ventilators would run out, hospital staff would get exhausted, hospital beds would run out, vital medicines would run low and run out. Etc etc.
The combination of those two factors combined, could lead to something like x20 to x80, of the current death rates. I.e. exponentially more infected, multiplied by up to 10 times worse death rate, because of the shortage of hospital facilities.
We could argue with the figures. But I hope we can agree, that they would be massively worse than they are now, especially in countries that have nicely brought the illness under control.
GeorgeOfTheJungle:
--- Quote from: MK14 on July 27, 2020, 10:03:18 am ---We could argue with the figures. But I hope we can agree, that they would be massively worse than they are now, especially in countries that have nicely brought the illness under control.
--- End quote ---
Maybe. Maybe not. Look at Sweden. We'll see. But keep destroying normal peoples' businesses and incomes and we'll have a problem much worse yet.
And as always, don't forget to ask who wins, and follow the money, please.
MK14:
--- Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 27, 2020, 10:29:46 am ---Maybe. Maybe not. Look at Sweden. We'll see. But keep destroying normal peoples' businesses and incomes and we'll have a problem much worse yet.
And as always, don't forget to ask who wins, and follow the money, please.
--- End quote ---
The combination of working from home, social distancing, common use of face masks, improved hand hygiene. Plus all the other measures, are hopefully reducing (the R number), and keeping the virus at bay. While not as badly, economically damaging countries, compared with the early weeks of the Coronavirus outbreak.
So, to a reasonable extent, things are going back to normal, and the worst parts of the lockdown, are hopefully over now. Unless we get a second wave. Depending on where you live.
I'm not good enough at economics, to know if it is a good thing or not. That essentially, all of the world, has been hit by this virus, and the economic fallout, that is developing.
If the economic problems, had only hit certain countries, that would worry me much more (if I lived in those countries), and still bother me, if I didn't. Anyway, these days, because of globalisation, there would have still been big/huge economic fallout, if part of the world was suddenly and unexpectedly, in bad economic times.
I.e. It would have soon spread and affected, most/all of the rest of the world, with economic issues.
Although, those wouldn't be too bad.
unless some big players, were really badly struggling, in which case it probably would be very bad then, world wide.
GeorgeOfTheJungle:
Look, all the europeans now owe 750 billion euros more than last week, to begin with. How good is that in your opinion?
MK14:
--- Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 27, 2020, 10:48:37 am ---Look, all the europeans now owe 750 billion euros more than last week, to begin with. How good is that in your opinion?
--- End quote ---
That is a lot of money. I guess we need to hope for, and create, a much better economic future for ourselves. To minimise the impact, of such huge financial hits.
If we ignore money for the second, and look at it from a practical point of view.
In 2020 so far, because of the Coronavirus, and the various lockdowns/shutdowns, that there have been, world-wide.
A huge number of items/goods that were going to be produced in 2020, haven't been, and won't be.
So all sorts of cars, computers, kitchen equipment, etc. Haven't been made.
Similarly, all sorts of buildings, like houses and bigger. Haven't been built.
So, however nicely you dress up the situation. The numerous people who those items/goods were destined for, are not going to get them, in 2020.
At best, they will be delayed, at worst, they will be never made.
I.e. (Made up figures, as I don't have the real ones to hand). Let's say, there are going to be twenty million cars, less produced, because of the virus.
Then perhaps, 20 million people, round the world, are potentially going to be unhappy, when they attempt to get a new car.
So, somehow, there (presumably), will be huge shortages, of some things and/or they may be too expensive. to keep the demand under check.
But in practice, the possible shortages (due to recent production slowdowns, in 2020), and possible dramatic price increases (speculation), of a huge range of world wide goods. Doesn't bow well for the future.
EDIT: We don't seem to be seeing these shortages (except toilet paper :-DD ), so maybe the big reduction in demand, also because of the shutdowns/lockdowns, and general downturn etc. Is coping with the reduction in manufacturing. I'm not sure how that will pan out, in later years.
Will it just get absorbed, or will that, also cause an impact.
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