Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

[rstofer]

According to the tracking site, Australia has 63 cases, 2 deaths and 21 recoveries.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Your recovery rate is outstanding!  The deaths are regrettable...

I have always been impressed by Singapore: 138 cases, 0 deaths and 78 recoveries.  That's a lot more impressive than the US with 376 cases, 14 deaths and only 8 recoveries.  The high number of deaths occurred because a health care facility got hit and ALL of the patients were vulnerable and stationary.

So far, season to date, the US has more than 12,000 deaths from the common flu.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

Why is it that nobody discusses this outrage!  It is far worse in numbers than Covid-19.

Here an interesting number:  41  No, not 42, 41 as in 41% of adults actively avoid getting a flu shot.  Then they whine and snivel when they die.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2018-12-06/survey-43-percent-of-adults-will-not-get-flu-shot  -- headline is wrong...
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/42-the-answer-to-life-the-universe-and-everything-2205734.html

There is great hope in the leveling off of the cases in China.  Their growth rate now is more linear than exponential.

Being retired, nothing much is going to affect me but my wife still works in the public sector and there is always a crowd at the grocery store.  We'll just have to see how things play out.  Remember, many people have the infection with no symptoms or symptoms no worse than the cold or flu.  Not insignificant but not life threatening (except for the 12,000 mentioned above).  The real victims in all of this are the old people with compromising medical conditions.  That would include me...

I view the coronavirus thing as the latest "shiny thing" and the media does love shiny things.

[PlainName]

So far, season to date, the US has more than 12,000 deaths from the common flu.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

Why is it that nobody discusses this outrage!  It is far worse in numbers than Covid-19.

Several reasons:

1. Flu is 'normal' so nothing new. We are used it. We have jabs to protect us from it.

2. Coronavirus is very early days yet. There could be 60-80% of people that get it, and 1% death rate with those numbers is way above anything simple flu can manage. Even if you add all the people who died from flu ever, they did that over many years. It's quite different to have that number die all in one go (relatively speaking).

3. Coronavirus can be caught from people with no noticeable symptoms. Flu only gets passed on the day before you're a sniveling and coughing obvious basket case.

[james_s]

Humans are hardwired to tune out common things and focus on rare stuff. It's the same reason people fear things like plane crashes, mass shootings and terrorists despite the fact that stairs kill more people than all of those combined. The flu kills thousands a year and yet there are thousands if not millions of people who don't bother or even actively refuse to get vaccinated for it.

When you hear things like 1% death rate, remember that's 1% of the people who are either sick enough or paranoid enough to go to the clinic and get approval to be tested. There have got to be orders of magnitude more people who contract the virus, spend a few days in bed and recover on their own the way most of us do when we get a cold or flu. The percentage of people who contract the virus and die is going to be way, way less than 1%.

[PlainName]

remember that's 1% of the people who are either sick enough or paranoid enough to go to the clinic

I think you'll find it's the calculated rate allowing for the hidden sick. The reported rate was somewhat higher at 3.4%, apparently.

Nevertheless, it's just a number. Let's go for 0.5% - still a massive funeral if the infection rate keeps up. OK, try 0.25% - just how low do you have to go before you can say it's not-a-problem?

[james_s]

I think you'll find it's the calculated rate allowing for the hidden sick. The reported rate was somewhat higher at 3.4%, apparently.

Nevertheless, it's just a number. Let's go for 0.5% - still a massive funeral if the infection rate keeps up. OK, try 0.25% - just how low do you have to go before you can say it's not-a-problem?

How would they even calculate that? There numerous diseases that cause symptoms similar to the coronavirus, how would one even estimate the number of people infected with the specific virus in question?

While just a wild assed guess I'd say the actual death rate is probably more like .05% of those who contract it, and of those most are people who are already in poor health, again remember that the flu kills thousands every year, a majority of those also in poor health already and the disease pushes them over the edge. We're all gonna die eventually and for many of us it will be a normally fairly benign illness that is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back.

[RRobot]

I don't have a lab at home, ....

Sure you do, that's how you started all of this, in the garage.

[PlainName]

While just a wild assed guess

Oh, that's a useful indication then! Can we all treat our own wild-assed guesses as pukka?

I'd say the actual death rate is probably more like .05% of those who contract it

As I type, the headline figures are 102,513 cases, 3,491 deaths. That's around 3%, no? And we don't know how many of those 102K are going to die in the end so that 3.5K is likely to go up.

There will undoubtedly have been some that flew under the radar, but I think any 'wild-assed guess' now would be over-estimating since no-one is going to think "Oh, looks like I might have this killer virus - guess I'll just take an aspirin and stay in bed for a bit." What with the lurid headlines - even though they may not be deserved - if you think you've got it you're going to want it seen to.

[EEVblog]

no-one is going to think "Oh, looks like I might have this killer virus - guess I'll just take an aspirin and stay in bed for a bit." What with the lurid headlines - even though they may not be deserved - if you think you've got it you're going to want it seen to.

Nope, huge numbers will not want to go to hospital to get tested unless it gets bad or they know for fact they have had contact with someone knowingly infected. And even if you suspect it and you just have the usual flu like symptoms you get once or twice a year it's likely many will just sit it out thinking that the hospitals are where sick people are, and the last place they want to be at a time like this. Especially in highly infectious regions that systems are overrun. Don't underestimate the fear of going into a hospital to get checked and you don't have it and then you might contract it. Guaranteed this is happening in huge numbers in places like Wuhan.

[PlainName]

huge numbers will not want to go to hospital to get tested

Here, if you think you've got it you DO NOT go to your GP or hospital. Instead, you phone the NHS hotline and they take it from there. Isn't it the same down under?

And whilst I agree that normally many would sit it out, with the newspapers doing their panic thing I think that's changed a bit for this one. And one thing to bear in mind with this is other people reporting you if you look like you have it. Nevertheless, the question remains: if 3% is too high and 1% is too high and.... where do you stop? What percentage would be not a big deal?

Don't underestimate the fear of going into a hospital

I have a morbid fear (is there any other kind in this context!) of being an in-patient. Perversely, this week I am on call to transport urgent blood products and samples. A hospital local to me is the regional collection point for coronavirus samples and it will be my responsibility to take them to a larger hospital for testing. Another local hospital I deliver samples to had a coronavirus fatality last week. I am not in the least bothered (despite also being in the 'at risk of complications' class twice over).

I am not here to stir up more panic, but I think it important to be realistic and not underestimate the issue either. The question I answered up-thread was why isn't flu getting the same attention, and everything else has just run on from that.

[PlainName]

From The Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-face-mask-facts-spreading-covid-19

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

So, a wild-ass internet guess vs a WHO expert. Difficult choice.

[james_s]

since no-one is going to think "Oh, looks like I might have this killer virus - guess I'll just take an aspirin and stay in bed for a bit." What with the lurid headlines - even though they may not be deserved - if you think you've got it you're going to want it seen to.

Actually that's precisely what I would do. Why would I go to the hospital to try to get tested? If I'm sick the last thing I want to do is go out somewhere and there's no cure for a viral infection other than rest and hydration. Also with all the sick people going to the hospital trying to get tested that's the last place I want to be, if I didn't have it already then that's a good way to pick it up. I'm quite sure I caught that swine flu that went around several years ago, I felt terrible, any flu feels terrible. I spent about 4 days in bed, had a bad fever for the first 24 hours or so then after a few days I started feeling a lot better. The headlines are a great reason NOT to go out and get tested, it's chaos out there and large numbers of people are consuming limited medical resources that are needed for those who are truly at risk. I'm still relatively young and healthy, the virus is not likely to kill me.

I loathe going to the hospital under the best of circumstances, and given our crazy medical system even though I have reasonably good insurance it's always a crapshoot that can result in a bill of several hundred to several thousand dollars. It doesn't take many times of going in and having the doctor say "here's a prescription for some stronger Tylenol (or some other placebo I don't really need), now go home and get some rest until you recover" followed by an expensive bill, to condition one to just skip the ordeal entirely the next time.

[SeanB]

Talking of the virus, my next desk colleague has his wife working at the same building, just one floor below the local person diagnosed with the virus.

Just coincidence that last night I went to bed at 6PM, headache, high fever and flu like symptoms. Don't really have to worry though, I already have at least 200 masks in stock, and a 20l supply of bleach as well, plus a 2 month supply of cat food for the furry horror.

[PlainName]

I'm still relatively young and healthy, the virus is not likely to kill me.

Indeed. The issue, I think, is that you might pass it on to someone who is not so healthy. A bit like the MMR vaccine thing where measles is getting to be a problem again, when it didn't used to be, because fewer people are getting vaccinated and thus get it easily then pass it on to their peers.

Regarding coronavirus, maybe something like the chickenpox parties would achieve something. There, people partied with someone already suffering chickenpox in the hope they'd catch it and get it over and done with, and henceforth be protected, in manageable numbers.

And in some ways this is going to be like Y2K: a potentially serious issue but some big efforts made to contain it so nothing really bad happens, and then people say well, what's the fuss? It wasn't anything.

[BravoV]

Talking of the virus, my next desk colleague has his wife working at the same building, just one floor below the local person diagnosed with the virus.

Just coincidence that last night I went to bed at 6PM, headache, high fever and flu like symptoms. Don't really have to worry though, I already have at least 200 masks in stock, and a 20l supply of bleach as well, plus a 2 month supply of cat food for the furry horror.

Damn  , wishing you to get well soon.

[james_s]

Indeed. The issue, I think, is that you might pass it on to someone who is not so healthy. A bit like the MMR vaccine thing where measles is getting to be a problem again, when it didn't used to be, because fewer people are getting vaccinated and thus get it easily then pass it on to their peers.

Yes, but what good would it do for me to go get tested, possibly either exposing more people while I'm contagious or being exposed to other diseases versus staying home to rest and recover? Generally speaking, if you've got any kind of cold or flu-like symptoms the best thing you can do is stay home and rest. That is likely the best route to recovery and the best way to prevent spreading it to someone else. I don't care if it's this coronavirus or some plain old boring flu, that's irrelevant because either way you could spread it to someone who could die from it or at the very least be greatly inconvenienced. I don't really grasp what getting tested does for you unless you suspect you were exposed and are not yet experiencing symptoms. If you already have symptoms then it's too late to worry about getting tested, you already know you're sick with something.

The ridiculous thing about Y2k was also that it was massively overblown and overhyped. There were a few potential issues it could have caused, but most of them were simply inconveniences. I recall people fretting about the ECUs in cars and various industrial control devices that contain computers but have no awareness of the date. I lost count of the number of times I explained to people that if you don't set the date on something, it's not going to be affected by Y2k, often to get a blank stare and skepticism. People just didn't get it, it was obvious to me from the start that nothing catastrophic was going to happen, I was never even the slightest bit concerned.

[EEVblog]

huge numbers will not want to go to hospital to get tested

Here, if you think you've got it you DO NOT go to your GP or hospital. Instead, you phone the NHS hotline and they take it from there. Isn't it the same down under?

Yes, that's what the recommend. But if they suspect you I think you are liking going somewhere to get tested.
Probably not a big deal in a country like Australia with limited cases and a great health care system that isn't stretched, but in other places, I'd bet my bottom dollars there are many people who won't tell anyone.

[SilverSolder]

[...] I was never even the slightest bit concerned. [about Y2K]

Same here.  I was mostly either bemused or amused, sometimes both, sitting in meetings discussing the end of the world.

[PlainName]

if they suspect you I think you are liking going somewhere to get tested

The way they've figured that here is to have a drive-through testing 'pod'. You roll up in your car, wind down the window and someone in full disaster-proof armour shoves a swab down your throat. You then drive home and wait for the black helicopter results.

[EEVblog]

A couple of more schools in Sydney hit as predicted.

[tszaboo]

no-one is going to think "Oh, looks like I might have this killer virus - guess I'll just take an aspirin and stay in bed for a bit." What with the lurid headlines - even though they may not be deserved - if you think you've got it you're going to want it seen to.

Nope, huge numbers will not want to go to hospital to get tested unless it gets bad or they know for fact they have had contact with someone knowingly infected. And even if you suspect it and you just have the usual flu like symptoms you get once or twice a year it's likely many will just sit it out thinking that the hospitals are where sick people are, and the last place they want to be at a time like this. Especially in highly infectious regions that systems are overrun. Don't underestimate the fear of going into a hospital to get checked and you don't have it and then you might contract it. Guaranteed this is happening in huge numbers in places like Wuhan.

Not just there. I wouldn't go to the doctor, unless I have fever, cause they will look at me, "prescribe" Paracetamol and send me home. I can stay at home and tell my employer that I'm sick, no matter what the sickness is.

But as I understand, lots of the infected have mild symptoms.

Also with all the sick people going to the hospital trying to get tested that's the last place I want to be, if I didn't have it already then that's a good way to pick it up.

There are countries, where infections you get in hospitals are more likely to kill you then car accidents.  But for example in Belgium, I went to the GP, and he wanted to shook hands with me. It was one of those cases, when both of us were just quietly standing there, thinking: "What is wrong with you?"

[PlainName]

The numbers from different countries remain remarkably consistent: around 3% fatalities from the reported numbers. If people were hiding the sickness you'd expect the numbers to vary a lot more.

Further, from The Grauniad again:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/the-new-normal-chinas-excessive-coronavirus-public-monitoring-could-be-here-to-stay

Over the last two months, Chinese citizens have had to adjust to a new level of government intrusion.

Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.

Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.

My emphasis - don't underestimate people telling on other people. It is, after all, how the Stasis and similar got along.

So, given the above, does anyone still want to guarantee that huge numbers in the likes of Wuhan are flying under the radar? Even knowing that actual experts that have gone and taken a look don't think so either?

(edit: as a side event, and not one to be taken TOO seriously, please, one wonders what the guarantee covers. Is it like when the politicos say "I take full responsibility" assuming just saying that lets everyone off the hook, because they never pay the fee of being responsible? So let's say it turns out that even a minor symptom gets caught by TPTB over there - the guarantee has failed and... what now?)

[james_s]

So, given the above, does anyone still want to guarantee that huge numbers in the likes of Wuhan are flying under the radar? Even knowing that actual experts that have gone and taken a look don't think so either?

Absolutely. I would still bet money that there are large numbers of people who contracted the virus and recovered without getting tested, one can debate the magnitude but it is an absolute certainty they are out there. I know for a fact that I am not the only person who would treat it like any other flu and stay home to recover, I would only go to the clinic if I started to have difficulty breathing. Unfortunately there is no way to determine the true number, I do know at least one person I work with mentioned that she and her husband just got over some kind of flu a week or two ago which in retrospect sounds suspiciously like the coronavirus. A couple of weeks before that a friend of mine returned home to the UK from here and he was sick for over a week with something resembling pneumonia that could have also been this virus but since neither of them got tested we'll never know if that's what they had or not. I'm absolutely positive there are many more like them, I cannot possibly know the only 3 people out there.

[SeanB]

4 in South Africa more confirmed, and the Dept of Health is in a tizzy, mostly because they normally are operating on the bad side of disaster, and primary health care is at best described as dysfunctional.  they have nominated a primary response hospital, hope they actually have told them, and that they actually have the medical personnel, supplies and training required. Hoping so, because for some strange reason, you cannot get waterless hand cleaner, disinfectant or masks and gloves at the moment. All sold out, just like in the US and Australia, but you can still get toilet paper, and of course there are no Tim Tams, but plenty of Marmite, Bovril and Redro, but, due to other reasons, no canned pilchards in chilli sauce with batch codes starting with ZZ.

[Sal Ammoniac]

A couple of more schools in Sydney hit as predicted.

Schools are open in the summer in Sydney?

[PlainName]

I can stay at home and tell my employer that I'm sick, no matter what the sickness is.

Lucky you. For many, typically not those likely to be contributing to this forum, it's very much easier said than done.

For instance, here in the UK if you're part of the gig-economy (that is, pretty much any delivery driver, uber driver, deliveroo, zero-hour supermarket worker, online fulfillment centre worker, etc) if you're not at work you don't get paid. Even non-gig workers who usually get sick pay don't get it for the first three days. I think our kind and considerate government has just revoked that temporarily so you'll get sick pay from the first day, but only one gig-economy company has offered to cough for sick pay for their 'non-employees'.

OK, so suppose you're in the position where you will get sick pay. Just rubbed shoulders with the neighbours who have been back from a tour of the Far East for the past month. What to do? Maybe not actually have to make the decision so you phone 111 and tell them, and they say to self-isolate. Win-win! An 'official' stay at home you can present to your boss, and sick pay to boot.

Now, suppose nothing happens so after 2/3 weeks you go back to work. The day after you go back you get a bit of a cough and start feeling really bad... Can you take another two weeks off? If I were in that situation (that is, no having the luxury of choosing not to go in like you do) I would find it very difficult indeed to flip the switch unless a) I was convinced I have it, b) couldn't actually do the work, and c) I had an official acknowledgement that I have it.