General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
james_s:
--- Quote from: Bud on April 13, 2020, 06:10:41 am ---"As soon as" is not going to be any time soon though. I think those folks will have job for a good year.
--- End quote ---
And then what?
I'd bet that things will start to relax in some areas within the next month or so, for the total threat to go away it will be longer but if we stay in lockdown like this for most of the year we are screwed either way.
EEVblog:
--- Quote from: Bud on April 13, 2020, 06:10:41 am ---
--- Quote from: james_s on April 13, 2020, 03:31:34 am ---
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 13, 2020, 01:30:28 am ---A booming trade seems to be security. The local Coles supermarket has no less than three full time security guards controlling flow.
--- End quote ---
That is very much temporary though. As soon as the threat of the virus passes all that security will dry up and there will still be huge numbers of unemployed.
--- End quote ---
"As soon as" is not going to be any time soon though. I think those folks will have job for a good year.
--- End quote ---
We are on the verge of easing restrictions here.
They will likely stage restrictions, but even then conflicts will remains. For example, if you re-open shops and restaurants then that also forces them to remove the two persons congregating in public rule etc.
But yeah, they have said "social distancing" is likely to remain for the rest of the year. But then how do the handle say restaurants and movie theaters? Do you only allows two people per seat/table separated by X distance. What about food court chairs?
It starts getting ridiculous very fast, and we have already had many examples of police abusing their powers for stupid simple things. They can't keep this up for another year, people will just start to ignore any rules eventually. At the moment it's this novel thing (I'm here are week!), give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.
mansaxel:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 13, 2020, 07:50:22 am ---give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.
--- End quote ---
Hopefully this will coincide with reasonable population immunity, so that the cases still to happen are few enough to handle. If you let go too quickly there will be a second surge of cases.
This of course also must be regarded in proportion to lockdown severity level because a very tight lockdown will both cause the care resources to not have to ramp up so much and fuel the desire to get society going again by opening up. Those two conditions combined will stimulate that second wave if poorly managed. Sort of a damped (but hopefully unsustainable) self-oscillation.
I'm betting on that this (slow, paced return whether by exhaustion or scaling back of restrictions) is what people setting the regulations are aiming for.
EEVblog:
--- Quote from: mansaxel on April 13, 2020, 08:08:24 am ---
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 13, 2020, 07:50:22 am ---give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.
--- End quote ---
Hopefully this will coincide with reasonable population immunity, so that the cases still to happen are few enough to handle. If you let go too quickly there will be a second surge of cases.
--- End quote ---
I think there will be a 2nd surge of cases regardless.
The problem is you can't just stop almost the entire society for a year or something, the old "the cure is worse than the disease" thing.
This quarantine has been great for several reasons (apart from the obvious downsides of course):
1) Helped limit the cases to give us time to cope and learn and research the whole thing.
2) Scared the shit out of people and instilled a new culture of hygiene and consciousness of how these things spread.
3) Open up new avenues and a "new normal" for work from home and other scemes.
So any 2nd surge of cases (it's coming on winter here) should not need the same level draconian and quite frankly erosion of rights and freedoms.
IMO more priority for any 2nd round should be better isolation of the vulnerable. i.e. I'd rather see the cops currently ticketing people just sitting isolated in a park, to guarding and restricting access to retirement homes.
--- Quote ---This of course also must be regarded in proportion to lockdown severity level because a very tight lockdown will both cause the care resources to not have to ramp up so much and fuel the desire to get society going again by opening up. Those two conditions combined will stimulate that second wave if poorly managed. Sort of a damped (but hopefully unsustainable) self-oscillation.
--- End quote ---
I can't see it not being a damped response. There are likely already less dangerous asymptomatic variants of the virus going around. Viruses evolve quickly. i.e. a huge number of people seem to be showing no symptoms at all, and this hopefully lends itself to the spread of a less dangerous variant. Although it's hard to get good numbers on that unless you test absolutely everyone.
--- Quote ---I'm betting on that this (slow, paced return whether by exhaustion or scaling back of restrictions) is what people setting the regulations are aiming for.
--- End quote ---
Here in oz they have already publicly stated that is the case.
EEVblog:
--- Quote from: james_s on April 13, 2020, 06:42:30 am ---I'd bet that things will start to relax in some areas within the next month or so, for the total threat to go away it will be longer but if we stay in lockdown like this for most of the year we are screwed either way.
--- End quote ---
At some point very shortly this turns into a global depression instead of global recession, and that by itself kills huge numbers of people, potentially more than the virus.
You can't just money print your way out of that either, that'll just prolong the depression.
So it's a fine line that must be towed her. We had our dumb arse NSW Premier come and and state that they won't be releasing social distancing rules "until a vaccine is found". The entire country laughed at her ignorance.
I fear the problem might be the lack of guts on the part of some politicians to ease restrictions, because that's putting your political arse on the line, and that's not something politicians do.
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