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Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

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bd139:

--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 13, 2020, 10:46:25 am ---
--- Quote from: bd139 on April 13, 2020, 10:18:28 am ---The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet.
--- End quote ---

One of the data problems is how deaths are reported. So many countries seemingly openly admitting that people are counted regardless of whether it actually caused their death or not.
And accuracy here is important because it sets the zestiest in the public mind of how dangerous this is compared with others seasonal flu's. That then permeates through society and ultimately impacts government policy.

--- End quote ---

Indeed.

I'll cut and paste the problems we have here from another post


I think we need to look at it rationally at the moment. The statistics we are recording here are absolutely not meaningful or useful as they stand and serve only to make the situation sound worse than it currently is. This is being leveraged by the press somewhat and the governments and being relatively poorly extrapolated by our universities into a set of wild assumptions. Granted wild assumptions are the only places we go but presenting them as fact and policy is somewhat disingenuous. Some problems with our recording:

1. We have no antibody tests that are viable therefore we don't have any "numerator" for the total deaths per infection.
2. We're not recording people who left hospital after recovery believe it or not.
3. We're not even recording the actual health outcomes, just the deaths. Not everything kills you even if it messes you up badly.
4. The recording method they use doesn't actually have a causal relation to the mortality as such. If someone comes in after crashing a motorbike, tests positive for covid-19 even if asymptomatic or if the test is contaminated (a big problem apparently!) then they get lumped in with the death statistics.
5. A lot of the statistical outliers are actually reported heavily on such as younger deaths. These are sad but inevitable. My nephew died from the flu a few years back as an example much to the surprise of everyone who wrote it off as "just flu".
6. The current infection testing is a snapshot of the status quo.
7. Some of the mortality risks are amplified by our handling of it and outcome of "viral load" which overwhelms the immune system.

Alas we have no idea what the outcome is going to be and the data we have is mostly trash. We are unfortunately a reactionary experiment at the moment and there's no exit plan other than "now what?" really. We are 12 months off on a vaccination and we don't know what the mortality statistics are, we have no viable testing and damage to society from the side effects from the reaction may outnumber the immediate deaths over a decade span. I suspect the "now what?" is we either burn everyone or some of us and let it run.

But, so far, all risks adjusted against what data we have, the mortality risk is literally just doubling your base line chance of dropping dead at the age you are. Still not desirable but at the end of the day considerably better than the statistics may suggest. But it's stil a shit show. If we have 10x the deaths we have now, which would be ugly, that still only represents a death rate of 0.79% as an end game. We lose 0.91% of our population every year at the moment as well from normal death as a comparison. 10% I doubt it will be.


EEVblog:

--- Quote from: nctnico on April 13, 2020, 10:09:06 am ---Actually keeping the social distancing up until there is a vaccine (or even better: a remedy against people's lungs filling up with fluid) is a very good idea. Most of the world is going to do just that. I don't see what is funny about it.
--- End quote ---

It's funny because here the police have said these extreme social distancing enforcement powers will not extend beyond 90 days. Yet the NSW premier says they will remain in force "until a vaccine is found".
We aren't talking about voluntary schemes here, we are talking about the current draconian measures were police are fining people for just sitting isolated in a park or in their car, and you aren't allowed to leave your house without a "valid reason".
You can't spend another year or two enforcing such draconian laws, that would be beyond ridiculous. And even if restrictions are eased, the social distancing thing will become all but a joke because it's not compatible with getting businesses back and running.
Take gyms as but one example, are they going to have to force people to use every 2nd machine for the next couple of years? What about group classes? Do you limit the numbers to a quarter and everyone spaces out in the same sweaty room for an hour. Yet the human petri dishes that kids are are allowed back to school to mingle every day 5 days a week?
What about churches and other places were people congregate?
At some point it just gets silly trying to enforce any social distances laws. Sure you can advice to limit where possible, but it enforce it as law will become pointless.

EEVblog:

--- Quote from: paulca on April 13, 2020, 10:38:30 am ---He did mention that they were mid planning the "2.0" for the company direction and the fact the company is still thriving while the building is completely closed down has made them change their minds on a lot of things.
--- End quote ---

Yep, this will be the start of countless companies like this re-evaluating their needs.
This could even likely impact commercial realestate as companies down-size offices in the next few years.

paulca:
Actually, right now the recovery data for the UK is saying "N/A", which removes the chart showing recoveries versus fatalities.  Which was horrible to look at if you didn't realise the data is skewed.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

nctnico:

--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 13, 2020, 10:41:09 am ---
--- Quote from: nctnico on April 13, 2020, 10:09:06 am ---What is happening right now is getting shops and factories modified so people can work and keep a distance at the same time. Together with rigorous testing and tracking apps that should be enough to control the outbreak while returning to a business as usual situation.
--- End quote ---

It is not "business as usual" for countless businesses if you can't fill movie theaters and restaurants and food courts etc as you did before.

--- End quote ---
Not unless people get creative. For example: going to a restaurant at different times so there isn't a single peak. Same for movie theaters. If you go to a movie a couple of weeks after it has been released you have the entire theatre for yourself. I don't have the exact numbers but it wouldn't surprise me that by spreading the people over a longer period movie theatres can still get a similar revenue on average. With people working from home and not being tied to office hours this could work well.


--- Quote ---
--- Quote ---But likely ther advice to work from home as much as possible is going to stand until next year.
--- End quote ---

Yep, very likely, and I suspect there will be many business that go "Gee, my business is still running with people working from home. So why am I renting all this office space?" Smart businesses will review the way they have employees work.

--- End quote ---
Yeah. I already told my youngest son -as a joke- that 'his' school has rented the building to shelter refugees.  8) For sure the last people opposed to working from home are getting shock treatment right now.

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