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| Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus |
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| paulca:
They know how the virus transmits. So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown. It's a bit like saying "We asked people to not touch any live wires, nobody did, so nobody died.". I don't think you need a control group of people who did touch the live wires and did die. The only reasonable way out of this is, test, track, trace. We need to find out who has it, who has had it and we need to know quickly. However it seems that almost everything is being intercepted by the USA to the point that Germany and the UK are sending their air forces to transit PPE and other goods. |
| paulca:
Actually ironically. I was watching a lecture given by the UK's own governmental scientific advisor given in 2018 about pandemics and their control. It was him and his colleges who wrote the book on this. Korea, China and other countries sprung into action actually following his advice and introduced immediate and strict, test, track, isolate and lockdown. They seem to have done much better. The UK did sod all even when Italy and Spain exploded their advice was "Wash your hands", Ireland and even Northern Ireland took more strict measures before the UK did. Figure this, but the UK borders are still open in and out. |
| EEVblog:
--- Quote from: paulca on April 20, 2020, 12:24:31 pm ---They know how the virus transmits. So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown. --- End quote --- Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction. It's almost certainly not going to be a linear thing. e.g drop infected person onto a cruise ship with 1000 other people vs one sitting on a beach (or in an open football stadium) with 1000 other people, and the spread rate is vastly different. We have (obviously) seen this already on cruise ships. So when it comes to the politics of where we go from here, at some point (very shortly) it's no longer going to make sense to continue to lock down beaches and large open air gatherings like say football matches. In fact there almost has to be an experiment where we open things back up and see what happens, as that will tell us a huge amount about the return spread rate. We can't hold out in full lockdown until we have zero cases in the entire country for a month. |
| paulca:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 20, 2020, 12:50:16 pm --- --- Quote from: paulca on April 20, 2020, 12:24:31 pm ---They know how the virus transmits. So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown. --- End quote --- Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction. --- End quote --- Agreed, but with the logarithmic graphs downward trending compared against epidemiologist predictions it would suggest the lock downs we have are working to some degree. Anyway, the canary will be put down the mine pretty soon by the US as some states start opening beaches etc. I think we should just wait and see what happens there. Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down. |
| EEVblog:
--- Quote from: paulca on April 20, 2020, 12:58:12 pm --- --- Quote from: EEVblog on April 20, 2020, 12:50:16 pm --- --- Quote from: paulca on April 20, 2020, 12:24:31 pm ---They know how the virus transmits. So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown. --- End quote --- Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction. --- End quote --- Agreed, but with the logarithmic graphs downward trending compared against epidemiologist predictions it would suggest the lock downs we have are working to some degree. --- End quote --- Absolutely no doubt they are working. --- Quote ---Anyway, the canary will be put down the mine pretty soon by the US as some states start opening beaches etc. I think we should just wait and see what happens there. --- End quote --- Yes, someone has to do it. I'd argue that Australia is a great place to do it. Nearing naff all daily cases, decently high testing rates, great medical system. https://infogram.com/1pw1pepdlyzrxebv29em2p5z3nu9v5njqpq --- Quote ---Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down. --- End quote --- I haven't heard, data link? |
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