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| Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus |
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| nctnico:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 27, 2020, 02:25:21 am --- --- Quote from: nctnico on April 27, 2020, 01:31:17 am --- --- Quote from: EEVblog on April 27, 2020, 12:28:28 am --- --- Quote from: Bud on April 26, 2020, 10:22:31 pm ---This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed. --- End quote --- The free market will ultimately take care of that. But they already know who sat next to who, so no need for that. --- End quote --- At that point it is too late. There is a delay between getting infected and becoming contagious. One of the points of using an app is to get an announcement you have been in touch with an infected person a couple of days ago. --- End quote --- It's called tracing app for a reason. It traces who you have been intact with. In the plane example, they already have mandatory contact tracing, in fact it's already one of the best forms of contact tracing currently available. Adding a tracing app adds little value when it comes to airline travel. --- End quote --- It does because with 'airline contact tracing' you can only act after the fact. With an app you can deny people to board who have been in contact with an infected person in the last couple of days. Same for cinemas and other crowded places. You have to divide the process of dealing with the Corona virus in phases. Phase 1 is the initial outbreak. The end of phase 1 is in sight and things are getting under control. Phase 2 is getting back to a situation where the virus is contained; this means keeping track of the outbreak and isolating infected people. There won't be a 100% coverage but that isn't needed. For as long as the reproduction factor of the virus is below 1 health care doesn't come crashing down. In phase 3 there will be herd immunity so the virus won't spread that fast naturally. Assuming a worst case scenario Corona outbreaks will become seasonal for the next few years. I would not be surprised if the southern hemisphere is going to show an increase in Corona infections during the winter. So in the end the choice is simple: Covid tracking app or full lock-down. Pick your poison. I don't like it too but at some point you just have to make the best of a bad situation. Calling it a hoax, a government ploy, etc is not going to make Corona go away. That is just sticking your head in the sand. Also be very careful with interpreting numbers by yourself trying to wish the problem away. Modelling viral outbreaks is a science in itself. |
| Nusa:
--- Quote from: james_s on April 26, 2020, 09:45:55 pm ---You're very much in the minority, likely less than 0.001% of the population. The number of people who don't own a smartphone is statistically irrelevant, there's no need to develop a standalone device. If you really wanted to volunteer, I'm sure someone would give you an old smartphone that could be used strictly for the tracking app if that was the desire. --- End quote --- The problem with exaggeration is how silly it looks if you actually do the math: 0.001% = 0.00001 * the population, which in the case of the USA comes out to a mere 3300 people. Enough said, you're way low. Here are some actual stats for last year, with demographic breakdowns. Top statistic was 81% smart phone penetration with another 15% using cell phones that don't qualify as smart, for a total of 96%. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ I've got two separate elderly neighbors who don't own smartphones. They both have tracfones they keep powered off in their car for emergency situations, but otherwise have not become part of the connected society. One of them (she's almost 90) doesn't even own a computer. Me, I have a smart phone and can use it. But in reality, I only make sure to keep it with me when I take long-distance trips. It generally stays at home on local trips. And at home, it's really just a phone, even if it's smart. I'd rather use my desktop for everything at home. |
| nctnico:
--- Quote from: Nusa on April 27, 2020, 10:48:38 am --- --- Quote from: james_s on April 26, 2020, 09:45:55 pm ---You're very much in the minority, likely less than 0.001% of the population. The number of people who don't own a smartphone is statistically irrelevant, there's no need to develop a standalone device. If you really wanted to volunteer, I'm sure someone would give you an old smartphone that could be used strictly for the tracking app if that was the desire. --- End quote --- The problem with exaggeration is how silly it looks if you actually do the math: 0.001% = 0.00001 * the population, which in the case of the USA comes out to a mere 3300 people. Enough said, you're way low. Here are some actual stats for last year, with demographic breakdowns. Top statistic was 81% smart phone penetration with another 15% using cell phones that don't qualify as smart, for a total of 96%. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ I've got two separate elderly neighbors who don't own smartphones. They both have tracfones they keep powered off in their car for emergency situations, but otherwise have not become part of the connected society. One of them (she's almost 90) doesn't even own a computer. Me, I have a smart phone and can use it. But in reality, I only make sure to keep it with me when I take long-distance trips. It generally stays at home on local trips. And at home, it's really just a phone, even if it's smart. I'd rather use my desktop for everything at home. --- End quote --- That is true but it doesn't factor in what people will do if they see a good reason to own / bring a smart phone. Just like you I leave my smartphone mostly at home and only bring it if there is some added value to bringing it along. |
| thinkfat:
The tracer app being done in Germany is not designed to prevent transmissions as such, no realtime alarm, no Zaphod-style blackening of sunglasses. It's allowing faster tracking of potential transmissions to help with containment. Since we're not under total lockdown (like Spain and Italy or France have been), the app will only alarm you after the fact. Infected people are not expected to break quarantine, though it has happened (recently there was a big "Razzia" in an apartment building where two quarantined infected families were repeatedly leaving home and roaming about. All inhabitants were mass-tested). The app will be useful only to guide people to seek medical assistance if a past contact has been recently tested positive. No GPS positions will be tracked, no geofencing like in South Korea. But as usual, we first have to discuss the potential data protection implications for another fortnight or two :palm: |
| PlainName:
--- Quote ---Because it looks like that's not the case, daily case totals have not increased --- End quote --- Yes, I'd have to agree with you. And here where that last step could be mistaken for a new start. Seems that most of these are in foreign workers too. However, that doesn't negate the point I was raising. There seems to be a consensus by actual experts that a second wave should be expected (as happened in all previous pandemics - I can probably source links if you need them) if we aren't careful, and come out of preventative measures too soon. IF that happens, which was what I was saying, then we could see a different scenario to the one you proposed. |
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