General > General Technical Chat
Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
Nusa:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 28, 2020, 03:24:19 am ---c) The continued flying of planes regardless of number of passengers is vitally important in order to keep pilots certified without requiring simulator time and re-certification. You can't just shut down and airline completely for a couple of months and then just start up again the next day, you'd have no recently active pilots left, they wouldn't be allowed to fly unless you a special exemption.
--- End quote ---
For pilots, the mass loss of certification happens about 3 months after they stop flying. Which hasn't happened yet for most of them, but it's coming up fast. Others will be kept current by being rotated in on the remaining flights or with simulator time (if they are lucky enough to be quarantined in the same area as the simulators). Many senior captains will likely be taking early retirement offers, since they face mandatory retirement at age 65 anyway. At least in the case of the large or state-supported airlines. For smaller airlines, this may be an extinction event.
It's not just the people, it's also the planes. Most of the ones that aren't still flying are parked with some level of maintenance mothballing. It'll take time and manpower to reverse the process, inspect and re-certify them for service again when the time comes. If the time comes...airlines are advancing retirement plans for planes as well.
langwadt:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 28, 2020, 11:32:46 am ---
--- Quote from: thinkfat on April 28, 2020, 06:59:31 am ---
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 27, 2020, 11:31:59 pm ---They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.
--- End quote ---
Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.
--- End quote ---
It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
Many airlines have already gone bust or will soon go bust regardless of what happens. Any some are already in receivership, in which case getting back operational in any reduced capacity is still good.
Also, most airlines also carry cargo, which is at a premium price at the moment. Less people on a flight means more commercial cargo they can carry on that flight. Some airlines are buying old 747's to press into service as cargo planes to stay in business. So reduced passenger numbers doesn't automatically mean they go bust.
--- End quote ---
they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive
coppice:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 28, 2020, 11:32:46 am ---Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc.
--- End quote ---
I don't think so. I have rarely flown anyone else, and most of the people around me seem to be travelling alone. I assume I would have seen a different picture on flights to holiday resorts, but I don't know what percentage of flights those are.
SiliconWizard:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 28, 2020, 11:32:46 am ---
--- Quote from: thinkfat on April 28, 2020, 06:59:31 am ---
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 27, 2020, 11:31:59 pm ---They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.
--- End quote ---
Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.
--- End quote ---
It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
--- End quote ---
Maybe you do, but I still don't know for sure what the exact rules will be, and how long they will last.
Over here, the rules for after May 11th have been announced - and apparently, for all transports, the rule will be every other seat in public transports will be empty - so that effectively cuts the capacity in half. Of course they didn't state anything specifically for planes, but if the same rule applies, there won't be this grouping thing.
Note that applying a group approach in planes with 1 seat between "groups" may make it pretty hard (or even almost intractable) to properly distribute the seats in planes to keep them balanced, so I'm not too sure how that would be workable in practice. Just a thought.
SiliconWizard:
--- Quote from: EEVblog on April 28, 2020, 03:25:57 am ---
--- Quote from: SiliconWizard on April 28, 2020, 12:44:15 am ---This is not going to be pretty, even without this half-filling plane thing. Several airlines have already said this could be several years from now until they can serve dividends again, which is likely to put off quite a few shareholders. And if enough of them sell, I'll let you imagine what happens next.
--- End quote ---
For every seller there has to be a matching buyer.
--- End quote ---
Yeah, but you might not like the end result much.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version