EEVblog Electronics Community Forum
General => General Technical Chat => Topic started by: EEVblog on March 04, 2020, 11:13:48 am
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I didn't want to start another thread on the coronavirus, but I think it's important and reasonably on-topic enough and will certainly impact all of us on here in some way.
So I wanted to stick to the topic of the impacts on our work/businesses by this, and what plans you and your business might have.
For me, for starters, I'm fairly confident (let's say 80% sure) it's going to eventually close the kids school for a period of time, I think that's pretty much inevitable at this point.
And if that happens it's not going to be several days, it's going to be several weeks, absolute minimum. That means myself and/or Mrs EEVblog have to not only work from home, but keep the kids occupied as well. This will obviously have a huge wide spread impact on business, over and above the already present and other future issues.
And Mrs EEVblog works for a large government department in a large office building. Odds are probably similar of them have to shut down and/or ask a lot of employees to work from home. They already have a good work from home plan in place, so may not be a huge impact there. Their new building is all "hot desk" anyway, with no one having an assigned seat or cubicle, the idea is you can take your laptop and work from anywhere.
So we are probably ok, I don't see much chance of my content stopping, short of me or my family getting the virus. I don't have a lab at home, but I'm pretty isolated in my lab at the office building and don't have to interact with others much, so should be business as usual. And if it's bad and close enough to shut down schools then it's close enough to worry about going out anywhere really. My lab will likely be fine, but other places like shopping centres, post offices, gyms playgrounds etc could be out. So pretty much there might be a need isolate ourselves at home. So we have plans in place for that for say a month if needed.
So does your company or your own business have any plans for this potential impact?, or are you impacted already?
There are just countless stories of service companies like airlines and restaurants and other places being decimated. One airline alone has shut down half it's fleet and told 75% of it's workforce to take leave. And the whole thing has barely gotten started in countries like Australia and the US, and yet there is already famously panic buying here in Australia. Don't ask about toilet rolls...
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It doesn't really affect me, but I just heard this from my ISP (Andrews & Arnold):
https://www.aa.net.uk/etc/news/covid-19-and-usage-quotas/ (https://www.aa.net.uk/etc/news/covid-19-and-usage-quotas/)
Good guys!
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Based mainly from home.
Definitely seen a huge drop in service calls / stalled projects and calls in general. Not that I care, I treat it like a re-run of xmas break :-) Catching up on unfinished projects :-)
Staff I usually contact have mostly taken early holidays, so there's no one to talk to anyway :-) I'll let you know how it goes in a few weeks, if this continues.
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It doesn't really affect me, but I just heard this from my ISP (Andrews & Arnold):
https://www.aa.net.uk/etc/news/covid-19-and-usage-quotas/ (https://www.aa.net.uk/etc/news/covid-19-and-usage-quotas/)
Good guys!
I would go a step further and say that all ISPs should not be allowed to charge overages or unreasonably degrade service in affected areas.
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I can largely work from my private lab and office nearby on my own where I design electronics for clients :D. I am in the second week of self imposed isolation down due to certain reasons :phew:. One more week to go.
Here some tips if you are in an office with a lot of people:
Wash hands or use isopropyl alcohol after handling any communal test equipment (power supplies, CROs, DMMS, probes, keyboards etc), or eating in the lunch room, prior to touching your face. Do not shake hands with anyone, even after scoring a big pay rise or congratulating someone. If you cannot wash your hands for whatever reason, such as you have just visited an electronics store, when you get to your car use an alcohol based hand sanitiser. Cannot get hand sanitiser? Mix isopropyl alcohol or metho with liquid soap or hand moisturiser. Keep the alcohol content high, like 50% to 80% in the mixture.
Unless you are sick with coughing and spluttering, wearing a mask is a pretty much a waste of time because masks do not cover the eyes. Most big tech companies are now planning having employees working from home, but with many professions this is not possible... social workers, policemen, ambulance drivers, couriers, restaurants etc. Ericsson has banned all air travel by employees. Good time soon to buy airfares at bargain basement prices. Airbnb accommodation prices are plummeting.
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I'm in the lucky position of working from home almost all the time (software development). Normally only visiting a client's office for 3 days every fortnight. That can easily be stretched out to a month or more if needed. As long as the broadband stays reliable in my house (current 540MBs) I'll be ok. If I have visit new clients for work though, that will be problematic
I do feel for people who will not be able to make a living though :(
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Told to work from home if sick (typical american ceo ::)), but its straight up impossible for me to accomplish anything there as I need to receive and ship parts.
I do feel for people who will not be able to make a living though :(
Yep its a terrible situation, and having to pay to get tested (in some countries) ensures no one will bother. I suspect a lot of people that get sick "early" could lose their jobs.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-treatment-medical-bill-hospital-costs-2020-3 (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-treatment-medical-bill-hospital-costs-2020-3)
https://qz.com/1809382/us-health-care-costs-could-help-coronavirus-spread/ (https://qz.com/1809382/us-health-care-costs-could-help-coronavirus-spread/)
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So does your company or your own business have any plans for this potential impact?, or are you impacted already?
We bought about 1000 masks, hand sanitizer. We have one person stuck in the Italian zone, another who had to cancel his flight home. Ordered stuff is getting delayed. I had to wait weeks for a quote, because the factory was shut down.
Meanwhile I'm recovering from some cold or pneumonia or something. Of course not the corona. But this is not the best time to sneeze and cough, even if its just common cold. In any case, if there is an outbreak, I'm staying home, cause I dont need a second infection after this one.
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Well, I work mostly from home anyway. Over here many companies do extra cleaning and urge people to take care of their personal hygiene (washing hands). Today I visited a customer and they have put signs over the washing basins which show how to wash your hands properly. Too bad the water is too cold to follow the entire procedure but the idea is there.
Realistically: Currently a relative small number of people get infected and in China they managed to stop the spread. In Europe the biggest problem is Italy which seems to be the source of most of the infections. I try to figure out if people went to Italy recently or had contact with people from Italy and avoid contact with those people. The current approach to prevent the virus from spreading seems to work; I don't expect shutdowns to last long as they are mostly a precaution c.q. means to keep people seperated.
Though I'm contemplating to postpone a holiday and am planning from some down-time so my project schedule doesn't suffer too much in case one of my family members and/or me gets infected.
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Wash hands or use isopropyl alcohol after handling any communal test equipment (power supplies, CROs, DMMS, probes, keyboards etc), or eating in the lunch room, prior to touching your face. Do not shake hands with anyone, even after scoring a big pay rise or congratulating someone. If you cannot wash your hands for whatever reason, such as you have just visited an electronics store, when you get to your car use an alcohol based hand sanitiser. Cannot get hand sanitiser? Mix isopropyl alcohol or metho with liquid soap or hand moisturiser. Keep the alcohol content high, like 50% to 80% in the mixture.
I have a bunch of small atomiser spray bottles with a 70% isopropyl/water mix.
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Wash hands or use isopropyl alcohol after handling any communal test equipment (power supplies, CROs, DMMS, probes, keyboards etc), or eating in the lunch room, prior to touching your face. Do not shake hands with anyone, even after scoring a big pay rise or congratulating someone. If you cannot wash your hands for whatever reason, such as you have just visited an electronics store, when you get to your car use an alcohol based hand sanitiser. Cannot get hand sanitiser? Mix isopropyl alcohol or metho with liquid soap or hand moisturiser. Keep the alcohol content high, like 50% to 80% in the mixture.
I have a bunch of small atomiser spray bottles with a 70% isopropyl/water mix.
Similar, just freshly bought these 5L of ethanol (ethyl alcohol) as the chemical material shop is in the route on the way home.
It will be diluted to about 70%. Reference -> CDC Chemical Disinfectants (https://www.cdc.gov/infectioncontrol/guidelines/disinfection/disinfection-methods/chemical.html)
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I have been home based for more than a decade but guys, right now, there are AMAZING summer travel deals, I've just ordered tickets for 2 different Asian countries, tourism is going to be down and this is going to be the best summer to travel in a long time!
This is not a joke... I got the tickets... It's just a cold for most people, I'll take the 3.5% risk, I think I take more risk when I drive in rush hour traffic on the freeway... xD
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The biggest disruption so far hasn't been the virus itself, rather the reaction by the public and the over-hyped media stories. The lunacy of "panic buying" toilet paper is one such example.
I think regardless of COVID-19, your business or organisation should have a disaster recovery and business continuity plan.
Dave, think of it this way: If your lab was to completely be destroyed, how would you continue to work? As for the kids staying home, treat it like the school holidays.
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Everyone is talking about how many die every year by influenza and the need to be calm. But most don't realize the fact that so many have died from this stupid thing at this alarming rate with respect to time and not the percentage of infected to dead. Even the WHO took time to declare the seriousness of it just 2 days before when it was forced to do so!
The alcohol content is supposed to be a minimum 40% for killing the virus. Using alcohol alone creates another problem in that the skin gets dry/damaged which in turn makes one susceptible to infections via the skin surface. Hence the recommendation for hand sanitizers like the gels containing a minimum of 40% alcohol. I was able to get some with 70% alcohol for my travel and hope the shelves will be re-stocked in my hometown stores by the time we get back on the 10th. Boy, am I glad to be retired!
Hope all you guys will keep safety in mind than discounting the risk.
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That's not even the major risk. If it mutates into something neurotropic or more effective at infecting people then we are properly up shit creek. The key focus is to eliminate it before that happens. At the moment healthcare provision across the planet is quite frankly not cut out for this sort of load so that'll collapse first, care declines, people die (of this and other things) and then there's the logistics problem of disposing of lots of dead bodies which is arguably going to be difficult with our current social protocols. We couldn't even manage the foot and mouth outbreak here in 2001 as an example.
As for me, I work from home. Only risk is the kids at school and they're well equipped with proper hand sanitizers personal and school provided and have strict policies in place already including proposed shutdown protocols.
The biggest risk here in London? Public transport. Dirty as fuck on a good day.
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then there's the logistics problem of disposing of lots of dead bodies which is arguably going to be difficult with our current social protocols. We couldn't even manage the foot and mouth outbreak here in 2001 as an example.
Take a look at the "excess death plans". This one is London-specific but all areas of the UK should have one: https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/London%20Excess%20Deaths%20Framework%20v1.pdf (https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_migrate_files_destination/London%20Excess%20Deaths%20Framework%20v1.pdf)
Section 9 covers this, but there is doubt as to how practical it is.
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Thinking things over, I've got maybe 3-4 days of in house only work for perhaps say the lead in to things going bad, another 12-14 days of stuff that can be done at home, and then the rest would break into R&D and gap filling,
So if things went south, I could last about 3 weeks before I would have to consider taking leave... and then things get fun, because I deal with a lot of buses and transport trucks, so literally industries with the highest risk of catching and spreading, the doors will probably stay closed for longer than other industries.
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Italian here, now you all will be at risk because my italian post is here!
I was in the north italy region last weekend. On Monday I was back in Germany.
Germans told me to work from my German home for the next 14 days.... Yuppieeeee
IMHO too much panic. No sense.
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I think regardless of COVID-19, your business or organisation should have a disaster recovery and business continuity plan. Dave, think of it this way: If your lab was to completely be destroyed, how would you continue to work?
Easy, I just need a computer and a camera.
Sure, losing the lab would be huge, but it wouldn't hit my business financially much, and certainly wouldn't stop me making content. On the contrary, it would provide ready made drama material like my flood did.
As for the kids staying home, treat it like the school holidays.
It's not that easy, during the school holidays you usually plan all sorts of full/multi day activities for the kids, so you often just drop them off and pick them up just like at school.
Having to stay at home with the kids for 2-3 weeks straight would be very different.
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And it just hit the first school in Sydney. Shut down tomorrow of course, but I expect they'll do a full 2+ week shutdown, because no one will want to have their arse on the line, and this will go all the way up to the health and education ministers etc who will back them.
Absolutely guaranteed other schools will get hit, just a matter of time.
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Dave can you tell me if the corona is spreading less in region like Australia where the temperature is higher than the north planet?
There are rumors high temperature will block the virus...
Thanks
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IMHO too much panic. No sense.
No, what humanity does makes sense. In fact, I think we are not doing enough.
Not because death rate. Because this thing is very infectious. We dont want this to join to the club of influenza, common cold, and others, that has outbreaks every year.
But in all seriousness, they are working on vaccine for common cold. I would take that.
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I just disinfected my keyboard for the first time in ages....and locked myself out of my account :palm:
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This all really just comes down to how fragile and unreasonable society has become.
A hundred years ago, the hazards were much greater, people died from outbreaks in much larger percentages of the population, but people pressed on, unafraid, and built what we have today.
Nowadays, everyone is afraid, weak, their emotions get triggered by almost anything, and the internet has given so many people this mistaken idea that they know anything about anything and they are just ready to hand out that opinion on a moments notice... When people like this become the rule makers, you get the world that we have today :-DD
I agree with our Italian friend, it makes no sense. This is what I love about Italians, very strong, independent minded people, I love my trips to this country so very much.
Good luck to the rest of you but I've booked tickets to multiple Asian destinations this summer and I'm going to very much enjoy the reduced crowds at all the hiking and birdwatching destinations *HAPPY DANCE!*
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I love my trips to this country so very much.
Right know you could have a luxury room at the Canal Grande in Venice for about 80€, regular price before COVID19 was 253€.
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I love my trips to this country so very much.
Right know you could have a luxury room at the Canal Grande in Venice for about 80€, regular price before COVID19 was 253€.
I need to convince the wife that we also need a trip to Italy this summer :-+ 8)
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I love my trips to this country so very much.
Right know you could have a luxury room at the Canal Grande in Venice for about 80€, regular price before COVID19 was 253€.
Its a great time for long distance flights. Its easy to get a whole row to yourself, and sleep in comfort.
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Or better yet - Discounted upper class! I absolutely love the premium cabins on the newer Airbus... A350 and A380 are my favorite metal birds. For the 10+ hour Asia flights it is mandatory ;)
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A few schools have already been closed in France.
It is going to have a significant impact overall. For how long, I have no clue. I mostly work from "home" these days - but with some traveling. I have a lab at home. But no travel planned lately so far...
Speaking of masks, fun (if you can call it that) but absurd fact: there has been a hot topic very recently over here. Obviously masks are highly suggested as a means of protection, but at the same time, there's a law that forbids anyone to wear a mask in public areas (for dang security reasons as it hides your face). So no one really knows whether we can get out wearing one or not, but you're likely to get fined if you do, even though the ministry of health has told people to wear one at the slightest sign of cold/flu to protect others.
Even in China, AFAIK, they are allowed to wear masks even though mass surveillance is pervasive over there. So are we getting even more totalitarian than China is? Maybe. :palm:
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I thought that the established belief was that the masks only reduce the infected from spreading the infection as wide, but don't really serve to protect the uninfected wearing one due to the various infection vectors?
I'm saving my N95 masks for drywall and masonry work |O
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Several of the large tech companies have closed their Seattle offices temporarily. I've actually gone into the office more this week than usual because the buses are empty and traffic is lighter than I've seen in 20 years, it's fantastic.
It isn't sustainable though, I bet after a few weeks people will start to get complacent again and return to normal routines even while the virus keeps spreading.
I do hope this spurs companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Facebook to allow and even encourage people to work remotely on a regular basis. There are health benefits and environmental benefits to doing so and with most software jobs technology makes it unnecessary to be in the office every day. I come in for the meetings and face time, I get most of my real work done on my remote days. I've been sick way less than I was at my last job, I spend a lot less on transportation and my overall stress level is lower.
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Dave can you tell me if the corona is spreading less in region like Australia where the temperature is higher than the north planet?
There are rumors high temperature will block the virus...
I've been thinking for some time now that must be a reason why we have had hardly any spread here.
We are so intimately tied to China and have such a massive Chinese population (especially students, we have 400,000 Chinese students here!) that we should have been hit very hard, but we haven't been.
Most of our cases have come from people coming from overseas, and in recent days from places like Iran and Italy, hence our new travel bans from these countries.
It just doesn't seem to be that infectious here.
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Dave can you tell me if the corona is spreading less in region like Australia where the temperature is higher than the north planet?
There are rumors high temperature will block the virus...
Most of these viral outbreaks have not really been cured. They have merely been contained until the temperature became unfavourable for infection, and luckily when the temperature became favourable again the disease did not return.
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I live in the Seattle area, and I'm currently working as a university researcher developing low cost diagnostic devices for infectious diseases. Needless to say, I've been busy the past few weeks developing a COVID-19 diagnostic device. It's a bit surreal trying to develop a tool to tackle an outbreak that is currently ravaging the city I live in.
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For those who would like access to a good daily update
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
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I thought that the established belief was that the masks only reduce the infected from spreading the infection as wide, but don't really serve to protect the uninfected wearing one due to the various infection vectors?
I'm saving my N95 masks for drywall and masonry work |O
If the masks can reduce the risk, say, by just 1%, and you live in a high risk area, you will not give a mask to your elder mom and dad just because, you know, it is "ineffective" ?
We are only brave until Death will knock *our* door.
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For 1%? I'll tell them to stay home. 1% is "in the noise floor" IMHO
If you start worrying about 1%, you'll never go anywhere and never get anything done! Worry about real numbers. 20% seems significant. 10% maybe worrisome. 50% significantly worrisome? 99% is a definite decision maker ;)
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I think that's fine if you want to take the risk. Travel from here puts you in situations where you have little choice to avoid infection.
Metal tubes filled with people or cruise ships with a ready source of captive hosts from the virus point of view.
Sure, you will survive but then there's the price of quarantine if you're found to have it, nothing better than getting a few days into the trip of a lifetime to find you are put under house arrest or hospitalised for weeks and then they close the borders.
I think a bigger question is the medium to long term effects, when people are financially impacted and the roll on effect as they stop spending money. This can affect the economy as a whole.
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Well, I guess we will see since I got tickets a few days ago and will be all over two different asian regions in the coming months. Not china, though :D
In the USA there won't be any "house arrest" for illnesses like this, they literally let HIV/Hepatitis/etc infected drug addicts shoot up in the streets in many cities now. I'm sure people will be asked to voluntarily "isolate", but for as low as the mortality rate is looking for this illness, unless it suddently gets worse I wouldn't even expect many people to maintain this isolation. From the numbers right now, it really doesn't look like a big deal.
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I love my trips to this country so very much.
Right know you could have a luxury room at the Canal Grande in Venice for about 80€, regular price before COVID19 was 253€.
Its a great time for long distance flights. Its easy to get a whole row to yourself, and sleep in comfort.
You can turn fear into an advantage.
My wife took a flight to Europe via Emirates on September 11, 2002... exactly one year to the day after the WTC terrorist attack. The plane was pretty much empty because of irrational hysteria that there was a higher risk that the Muslims would blow up one of their own aeroplanes. Terrific flight, excellent service, nothing more safer and she had a whole row of seats to lie down and sleep on.
A few days after the WHO announces COVID-19 is a pandemic, I will be buying stocks, after all the sheep think the end is nigh. Within three years, I will stand to make handsome profit far exceeding crappy bank interest rates... if I survive that is ::).
(Did you hear about the IRA terrorist who tried to blow up a bus? He burnt his lips on the exhaust pipe.)
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:palm: -> Coronavirus fraud: UK victims lose 800,000 pounds in scams (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-fraud/coronavirus-fraud-uk-victims-lose-800000-pounds-in-scams-idUSKBN20T1HZ)
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one victim paying 15,000 pounds for masks that never arrived (http://one victim paying 15,000 pounds for masks that never arrived)
Well, that "victim" was not going to use that many masks for himself and family, clearly he had a plan to become rich by reselling them. Someone outsmarted him.
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They just cancelled SXSW
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/sxsw-cancelled-due-to-coronavirus.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/sxsw-cancelled-due-to-coronavirus.html)
There could probably be an entire thread just devoted to stuff that's going to get shut own due to this.
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Voluntary work from home last month, co-workers found things to be more productive as don’t need 3 hrs transport from home everyday nor disruption from boss.
Leadership not feeling comfortable b’cos they found only themselves in the office but no others :-DD
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My network surveillance job could 100% be done from home if I had a chance to do a proper setup. (3x 4k monitors needed for the real estate) but my company is against the idea of people working from home.
That said, they actually ARE looking into the potential of people working from home if they had to because of an outbreak. We're in a rather low risk area but they just want to get their ducks in a row. Oddly enough our whole office just got some kind of nasty virus, including myself. Some kind of sore throat and coughing virus with intense fever, was pretty nasty. Obviously not deadly like covid-19 but it's a grim reminder just how fast stuff like that can happen and spread.
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My network surveillance job could 100% be done from home if I had a chance to do a proper setup. (3x 4k monitors needed for the real estate) but my company is against the idea of people working from home.
That said, they actually ARE looking into the potential of people working from home if they had to because of an outbreak. We're in a rather low risk area but they just want to get their ducks in a row. Oddly enough our whole office just got some kind of nasty virus, including myself. Some kind of sore throat and coughing virus with intense fever, was pretty nasty. Obviously not deadly like covid-19 but it's a grim reminder just how fast stuff like that can happen and spread.
I was in Ottawa about a month ago and I'll bet I got that exact same sickness! Started with a sore throat, rapidly moved to intense fever with the worst headache I've had in a long time, and the headache lasted 2 days even with meds. Turned into horrible coughing, I didn't even sleep one night because I couldn't stop coughing. I felt like total crap for a week and didn't feel completely back to normal until 2 weeks later!!!
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We had that as well. Took out half the company. No casualties. Fortunately I was working from home so not affected. I suspect this is about as bad as covid-2019 would be.
I’m going shopping in a rather busy place today. Interested to see how busy it is compared to normal.
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No casualties? You forget to mention the thousands of kleenex that gave their lives to save you :P
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No casualties? You forget to mention the thousands of kleenex that gave their lives to save you :P
The kleenex were already dead. It was poor defenceless trees who gave their lives.
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We'll be giving our juice back to the trees one day. They always win.
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According to the tracking site, Australia has 63 cases, 2 deaths and 21 recoveries.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
Your recovery rate is outstanding! The deaths are regrettable...
I have always been impressed by Singapore: 138 cases, 0 deaths and 78 recoveries. That's a lot more impressive than the US with 376 cases, 14 deaths and only 8 recoveries. The high number of deaths occurred because a health care facility got hit and ALL of the patients were vulnerable and stationary.
So far, season to date, the US has more than 12,000 deaths from the common flu.
https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year (https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year)
Why is it that nobody discusses this outrage! It is far worse in numbers than Covid-19.
Here an interesting number: 41 No, not 42, 41 as in 41% of adults actively avoid getting a flu shot. Then they whine and snivel when they die.
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2018-12-06/survey-43-percent-of-adults-will-not-get-flu-shot (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2018-12-06/survey-43-percent-of-adults-will-not-get-flu-shot) -- headline is wrong...
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/42-the-answer-to-life-the-universe-and-everything-2205734.html (https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/42-the-answer-to-life-the-universe-and-everything-2205734.html)
There is great hope in the leveling off of the cases in China. Their growth rate now is more linear than exponential.
Being retired, nothing much is going to affect me but my wife still works in the public sector and there is always a crowd at the grocery store. We'll just have to see how things play out. Remember, many people have the infection with no symptoms or symptoms no worse than the cold or flu. Not insignificant but not life threatening (except for the 12,000 mentioned above). The real victims in all of this are the old people with compromising medical conditions. That would include me...
I view the coronavirus thing as the latest "shiny thing" and the media does love shiny things.
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So far, season to date, the US has more than 12,000 deaths from the common flu.
https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year (https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year)
Why is it that nobody discusses this outrage! It is far worse in numbers than Covid-19.
Several reasons:
1. Flu is 'normal' so nothing new. We are used it. We have jabs to protect us from it.
2. Coronavirus is very early days yet. There could be 60-80% of people that get it, and 1% death rate with those numbers is way above anything simple flu can manage. Even if you add all the people who died from flu ever, they did that over many years. It's quite different to have that number die all in one go (relatively speaking).
3. Coronavirus can be caught from people with no noticeable symptoms. Flu only gets passed on the day before you're a sniveling and coughing obvious basket case.
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Humans are hardwired to tune out common things and focus on rare stuff. It's the same reason people fear things like plane crashes, mass shootings and terrorists despite the fact that stairs kill more people than all of those combined. The flu kills thousands a year and yet there are thousands if not millions of people who don't bother or even actively refuse to get vaccinated for it.
When you hear things like 1% death rate, remember that's 1% of the people who are either sick enough or paranoid enough to go to the clinic and get approval to be tested. There have got to be orders of magnitude more people who contract the virus, spend a few days in bed and recover on their own the way most of us do when we get a cold or flu. The percentage of people who contract the virus and die is going to be way, way less than 1%.
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remember that's 1% of the people who are either sick enough or paranoid enough to go to the clinic
I think you'll find it's the calculated rate allowing for the hidden sick. The reported rate was somewhat higher at 3.4%, apparently.
Nevertheless, it's just a number. Let's go for 0.5% - still a massive funeral if the infection rate keeps up. OK, try 0.25% - just how low do you have to go before you can say it's not-a-problem?
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I think you'll find it's the calculated rate allowing for the hidden sick. The reported rate was somewhat higher at 3.4%, apparently.
Nevertheless, it's just a number. Let's go for 0.5% - still a massive funeral if the infection rate keeps up. OK, try 0.25% - just how low do you have to go before you can say it's not-a-problem?
How would they even calculate that? There numerous diseases that cause symptoms similar to the coronavirus, how would one even estimate the number of people infected with the specific virus in question?
While just a wild assed guess I'd say the actual death rate is probably more like .05% of those who contract it, and of those most are people who are already in poor health, again remember that the flu kills thousands every year, a majority of those also in poor health already and the disease pushes them over the edge. We're all gonna die eventually and for many of us it will be a normally fairly benign illness that is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back.
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I don't have a lab at home, ....
Sure you do, that's how you started all of this, in the garage.
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While just a wild assed guess
Oh, that's a useful indication then! Can we all treat our own wild-assed guesses as pukka?
I'd say the actual death rate is probably more like .05% of those who contract it
As I type, the headline figures are 102,513 cases, 3,491 deaths. That's around 3%, no? And we don't know how many of those 102K are going to die in the end so that 3.5K is likely to go up.
There will undoubtedly have been some that flew under the radar, but I think any 'wild-assed guess' now would be over-estimating since no-one is going to think "Oh, looks like I might have this killer virus - guess I'll just take an aspirin and stay in bed for a bit." What with the lurid headlines - even though they may not be deserved - if you think you've got it you're going to want it seen to.
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no-one is going to think "Oh, looks like I might have this killer virus - guess I'll just take an aspirin and stay in bed for a bit." What with the lurid headlines - even though they may not be deserved - if you think you've got it you're going to want it seen to.
Nope, huge numbers will not want to go to hospital to get tested unless it gets bad or they know for fact they have had contact with someone knowingly infected. And even if you suspect it and you just have the usual flu like symptoms you get once or twice a year it's likely many will just sit it out thinking that the hospitals are where sick people are, and the last place they want to be at a time like this. Especially in highly infectious regions that systems are overrun. Don't underestimate the fear of going into a hospital to get checked and you don't have it and then you might contract it. Guaranteed this is happening in huge numbers in places like Wuhan.
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huge numbers will not want to go to hospital to get tested
Here, if you think you've got it you DO NOT go to your GP or hospital. Instead, you phone the NHS hotline and they take it from there. Isn't it the same down under?
And whilst I agree that normally many would sit it out, with the newspapers doing their panic thing I think that's changed a bit for this one. And one thing to bear in mind with this is other people reporting you if you look like you have it. Nevertheless, the question remains: if 3% is too high and 1% is too high and.... where do you stop? What percentage would be not a big deal?
Don't underestimate the fear of going into a hospital
I have a morbid fear (is there any other kind in this context!) of being an in-patient. Perversely, this week I am on call to transport urgent blood products and samples. A hospital local to me is the regional collection point for coronavirus samples and it will be my responsibility to take them to a larger hospital for testing. Another local hospital I deliver samples to had a coronavirus fatality last week. I am not in the least bothered (despite also being in the 'at risk of complications' class twice over).
I am not here to stir up more panic, but I think it important to be realistic and not underestimate the issue either. The question I answered up-thread was why isn't flu getting the same attention, and everything else has just run on from that.
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From The Grauniad:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-face-mask-facts-spreading-covid-19 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-face-mask-facts-spreading-covid-19)
Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’
Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.
So, a wild-ass internet guess vs a WHO expert. Difficult choice.
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since no-one is going to think "Oh, looks like I might have this killer virus - guess I'll just take an aspirin and stay in bed for a bit." What with the lurid headlines - even though they may not be deserved - if you think you've got it you're going to want it seen to.
Actually that's precisely what I would do. Why would I go to the hospital to try to get tested? If I'm sick the last thing I want to do is go out somewhere and there's no cure for a viral infection other than rest and hydration. Also with all the sick people going to the hospital trying to get tested that's the last place I want to be, if I didn't have it already then that's a good way to pick it up. I'm quite sure I caught that swine flu that went around several years ago, I felt terrible, any flu feels terrible. I spent about 4 days in bed, had a bad fever for the first 24 hours or so then after a few days I started feeling a lot better. The headlines are a great reason NOT to go out and get tested, it's chaos out there and large numbers of people are consuming limited medical resources that are needed for those who are truly at risk. I'm still relatively young and healthy, the virus is not likely to kill me.
I loathe going to the hospital under the best of circumstances, and given our crazy medical system even though I have reasonably good insurance it's always a crapshoot that can result in a bill of several hundred to several thousand dollars. It doesn't take many times of going in and having the doctor say "here's a prescription for some stronger Tylenol (or some other placebo I don't really need), now go home and get some rest until you recover" followed by an expensive bill, to condition one to just skip the ordeal entirely the next time.
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Talking of the virus, my next desk colleague has his wife working at the same building, just one floor below the local person diagnosed with the virus.
Just coincidence that last night I went to bed at 6PM, headache, high fever and flu like symptoms. Don't really have to worry though, I already have at least 200 masks in stock, and a 20l supply of bleach as well, plus a 2 month supply of cat food for the furry horror.
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I'm still relatively young and healthy, the virus is not likely to kill me.
Indeed. The issue, I think, is that you might pass it on to someone who is not so healthy. A bit like the MMR vaccine thing where measles is getting to be a problem again, when it didn't used to be, because fewer people are getting vaccinated and thus get it easily then pass it on to their peers.
Regarding coronavirus, maybe something like the chickenpox parties would achieve something. There, people partied with someone already suffering chickenpox in the hope they'd catch it and get it over and done with, and henceforth be protected, in manageable numbers.
And in some ways this is going to be like Y2K: a potentially serious issue but some big efforts made to contain it so nothing really bad happens, and then people say well, what's the fuss? It wasn't anything.
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Talking of the virus, my next desk colleague has his wife working at the same building, just one floor below the local person diagnosed with the virus.
Just coincidence that last night I went to bed at 6PM, headache, high fever and flu like symptoms. Don't really have to worry though, I already have at least 200 masks in stock, and a 20l supply of bleach as well, plus a 2 month supply of cat food for the furry horror.
Damn :( , wishing you to get well soon.
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Indeed. The issue, I think, is that you might pass it on to someone who is not so healthy. A bit like the MMR vaccine thing where measles is getting to be a problem again, when it didn't used to be, because fewer people are getting vaccinated and thus get it easily then pass it on to their peers.
Yes, but what good would it do for me to go get tested, possibly either exposing more people while I'm contagious or being exposed to other diseases versus staying home to rest and recover? Generally speaking, if you've got any kind of cold or flu-like symptoms the best thing you can do is stay home and rest. That is likely the best route to recovery and the best way to prevent spreading it to someone else. I don't care if it's this coronavirus or some plain old boring flu, that's irrelevant because either way you could spread it to someone who could die from it or at the very least be greatly inconvenienced. I don't really grasp what getting tested does for you unless you suspect you were exposed and are not yet experiencing symptoms. If you already have symptoms then it's too late to worry about getting tested, you already know you're sick with something.
The ridiculous thing about Y2k was also that it was massively overblown and overhyped. There were a few potential issues it could have caused, but most of them were simply inconveniences. I recall people fretting about the ECUs in cars and various industrial control devices that contain computers but have no awareness of the date. I lost count of the number of times I explained to people that if you don't set the date on something, it's not going to be affected by Y2k, often to get a blank stare and skepticism. People just didn't get it, it was obvious to me from the start that nothing catastrophic was going to happen, I was never even the slightest bit concerned.
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huge numbers will not want to go to hospital to get tested
Here, if you think you've got it you DO NOT go to your GP or hospital. Instead, you phone the NHS hotline and they take it from there. Isn't it the same down under?
Yes, that's what the recommend. But if they suspect you I think you are liking going somewhere to get tested.
Probably not a big deal in a country like Australia with limited cases and a great health care system that isn't stretched, but in other places, I'd bet my bottom dollars there are many people who won't tell anyone.
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[...] I was never even the slightest bit concerned. [about Y2K]
Same here. I was mostly either bemused or amused, sometimes both, sitting in meetings discussing the end of the world.
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if they suspect you I think you are liking going somewhere to get tested
The way they've figured that here is to have a drive-through testing 'pod'. You roll up in your car, wind down the window and someone in full disaster-proof armour shoves a swab down your throat. You then drive home and wait for the black helicopter results.
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A couple of more schools in Sydney hit as predicted.
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no-one is going to think "Oh, looks like I might have this killer virus - guess I'll just take an aspirin and stay in bed for a bit." What with the lurid headlines - even though they may not be deserved - if you think you've got it you're going to want it seen to.
Nope, huge numbers will not want to go to hospital to get tested unless it gets bad or they know for fact they have had contact with someone knowingly infected. And even if you suspect it and you just have the usual flu like symptoms you get once or twice a year it's likely many will just sit it out thinking that the hospitals are where sick people are, and the last place they want to be at a time like this. Especially in highly infectious regions that systems are overrun. Don't underestimate the fear of going into a hospital to get checked and you don't have it and then you might contract it. Guaranteed this is happening in huge numbers in places like Wuhan.
Not just there. I wouldn't go to the doctor, unless I have fever, cause they will look at me, "prescribe" Paracetamol and send me home. I can stay at home and tell my employer that I'm sick, no matter what the sickness is.
But as I understand, lots of the infected have mild symptoms.
Also with all the sick people going to the hospital trying to get tested that's the last place I want to be, if I didn't have it already then that's a good way to pick it up.
There are countries, where infections you get in hospitals are more likely to kill you then car accidents. But for example in Belgium, I went to the GP, and he wanted to shook hands with me. It was one of those cases, when both of us were just quietly standing there, thinking: "What is wrong with you?"
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The numbers from different countries remain remarkably consistent: around 3% fatalities from the reported numbers. If people were hiding the sickness you'd expect the numbers to vary a lot more.
Further, from The Grauniad again:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/the-new-normal-chinas-excessive-coronavirus-public-monitoring-could-be-here-to-stay (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/the-new-normal-chinas-excessive-coronavirus-public-monitoring-could-be-here-to-stay)
Over the last two months, Chinese citizens have had to adjust to a new level of government intrusion.
Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
My emphasis - don't underestimate people telling on other people. It is, after all, how the Stasis and similar got along.
So, given the above, does anyone still want to guarantee that huge numbers in the likes of Wuhan are flying under the radar? Even knowing that actual experts that have gone and taken a look don't think so either?
(edit: as a side event, and not one to be taken TOO seriously, please, one wonders what the guarantee covers. Is it like when the politicos say "I take full responsibility" assuming just saying that lets everyone off the hook, because they never pay the fee of being responsible? So let's say it turns out that even a minor symptom gets caught by TPTB over there - the guarantee has failed and... what now?)
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So, given the above, does anyone still want to guarantee that huge numbers in the likes of Wuhan are flying under the radar? Even knowing that actual experts that have gone and taken a look don't think so either?
Absolutely. I would still bet money that there are large numbers of people who contracted the virus and recovered without getting tested, one can debate the magnitude but it is an absolute certainty they are out there. I know for a fact that I am not the only person who would treat it like any other flu and stay home to recover, I would only go to the clinic if I started to have difficulty breathing. Unfortunately there is no way to determine the true number, I do know at least one person I work with mentioned that she and her husband just got over some kind of flu a week or two ago which in retrospect sounds suspiciously like the coronavirus. A couple of weeks before that a friend of mine returned home to the UK from here and he was sick for over a week with something resembling pneumonia that could have also been this virus but since neither of them got tested we'll never know if that's what they had or not. I'm absolutely positive there are many more like them, I cannot possibly know the only 3 people out there.
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4 in South Africa more confirmed, and the Dept of Health is in a tizzy, mostly because they normally are operating on the bad side of disaster, and primary health care is at best described as dysfunctional. they have nominated a primary response hospital, hope they actually have told them, and that they actually have the medical personnel, supplies and training required. Hoping so, because for some strange reason, you cannot get waterless hand cleaner, disinfectant or masks and gloves at the moment. All sold out, just like in the US and Australia, but you can still get toilet paper, and of course there are no Tim Tams, but plenty of Marmite, Bovril and Redro, but, due to other reasons, no canned pilchards in chilli sauce with batch codes starting with ZZ.
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A couple of more schools in Sydney hit as predicted.
Schools are open in the summer in Sydney?
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I can stay at home and tell my employer that I'm sick, no matter what the sickness is.
Lucky you. For many, typically not those likely to be contributing to this forum, it's very much easier said than done.
For instance, here in the UK if you're part of the gig-economy (that is, pretty much any delivery driver, uber driver, deliveroo, zero-hour supermarket worker, online fulfillment centre worker, etc) if you're not at work you don't get paid. Even non-gig workers who usually get sick pay don't get it for the first three days. I think our kind and considerate government has just revoked that temporarily so you'll get sick pay from the first day, but only one gig-economy company has offered to cough for sick pay for their 'non-employees'.
OK, so suppose you're in the position where you will get sick pay. Just rubbed shoulders with the neighbours who have been back from a tour of the Far East for the past month. What to do? Maybe not actually have to make the decision so you phone 111 and tell them, and they say to self-isolate. Win-win! An 'official' stay at home you can present to your boss, and sick pay to boot.
Now, suppose nothing happens so after 2/3 weeks you go back to work. The day after you go back you get a bit of a cough and start feeling really bad... Can you take another two weeks off? If I were in that situation (that is, no having the luxury of choosing not to go in like you do) I would find it very difficult indeed to flip the switch unless a) I was convinced I have it, b) couldn't actually do the work, and c) I had an official acknowledgement that I have it.
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Actually that's precisely what I would do. Why would I go to the hospital to try to get tested? If I'm sick the last thing I want to do is go out somewhere and there's no cure for a viral infection other than rest and hydration. Also with all the sick people going to the hospital trying to get tested that's the last place I want to be, if I didn't have it already then that's a good way to pick it up.
Senior editor of the Washington [com]Post says that health care workers generally agree with you. Drs expect to diagnose over the phone, and just have you stay home to prevent spread.
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A couple of weeks before that a friend of mine returned home to the UK from here and he was sick for over a week with something resembling pneumonia that could have also been this virus but since neither of them got tested we'll never know if that's what they had or not.
When they develop antibody tests, we'll be able to tell if people had it and recovered.
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Senior editor of the Washington [com]Post says that health care workers generally agree with you.
Pardon me for stating the obvious but you're moving the goalposts. James_s is arguing that by staying at home he won't tell anyone and therefore he won't be in the stats. Your source is saying the opposite - you stay at home but still get diagnosed and therefore become part of the stats.
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Senior editor of the Washington [com]Post says that health care workers generally agree with you.
Pardon me for stating the obvious but you're moving the goalposts. James_s is arguing that by staying at home he won't tell anyone and therefore he won't be in the stats. Your source is saying the opposite - you stay at home but still get diagnosed and therefore become part of the stats.
Sorry, I didn't know James was the goal-post setter (and why would you omit that part of the quote?). In any event, I was just stating what was said on the afternoon talk media, and I would likely do the same and just stay home until I felt death was imminent. My journey would likely start with a call to the local hospital.
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A couple of more schools in Sydney hit as predicted.
Schools are open in the summer in Sydney?
Err, yeah, why wouldn't they be?
https://www.education.gov.au/school-term-dates-2020 (https://www.education.gov.au/school-term-dates-2020)
They get all of January off though.
BTW, it's now Autumn.
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(and why would you omit that part of the quote?)
a) To illustrate the exact part I am commenting on, and
b) not have tons and tons of quotes to wade through just to get to a one or two word comment.
Think of it as keeping the place tidy and pertinent :)
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Not just there. I wouldn't go to the doctor, unless I have fever, cause they will look at me, "prescribe" Paracetamol and send me home. I can stay at home and tell my employer that I'm sick, no matter what the sickness is.
But as I understand, lots of the infected have mild symptoms.
And that's the thing.
Mrs EEVblog had a mild sniffle the other week the same time Sagan had one. You don't call the virus hotline for that.
If I got a runny nose I wouldn't either, I'd just do my best to ensure no one else got it from me.
I'd likely have to have real symptoms like a fever (don't recall ever having a fever for the flu) or a cough (I usually get that post a bad flu) before I called the hotline or my doctor.
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I strongly suspect I had that swine flu that went around several years ago. I had a high fever and felt awful for a few days, however it didn't last as long as other times I've had the flu, it kinda hit hard and heavy and burned out fast. I didn't go to the doctor, I felt terrible, going out was the last thing I wanted to do. I spent the whole time in bed aside from the bare minimum like feeding myself and the cat. I don't think there's anything a doctor could have done.
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(and why would you omit that part of the quote?)
a) To illustrate the exact part I am commenting on, and
b) not have tons and tons of quotes to wade through just to get to a one or two word comment.
Think of it as keeping the place tidy and pertinent :)
I only had two points, and you didn't quote the part you commented on. The phone diagnosis would be primarily for screening, for other things than what you are probably thinking. The US, who's flag James flys, is lacking test kits anyway.
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you didn't quote the part you commented on
I reckon I did, you know. (Well, clearly, you don't but I certainly do.)
Blimey, you couldn't make this stuff up :)
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Not just there. I wouldn't go to the doctor, unless I have fever, cause they will look at me, "prescribe" Paracetamol and send me home. I can stay at home and tell my employer that I'm sick, no matter what the sickness is.
But as I understand, lots of the infected have mild symptoms.
And that's the thing.
Mrs EEVblog had a mild sniffle the other week the same time Sagan had one. You don't call the virus hotline for that.
If I got a runny nose I wouldn't either, I'd just do my best to ensure no one else got it from me.
I'd likely have to have real symptoms like a fever (don't recall ever having a fever for the flu) or a cough (I usually get that post a bad flu) before I called the hotline or my doctor.
Visiting a family doctor for simple infections is more a cultural thing than a medical thing. Some people grow up with the expectation that every sniffle needs to be attended by a doctor, even when they have to pay a considerable amount for each doctor's appointment. Others treat doctors as a last resort.
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Our country is not that bad yet with the number of those infected. Yet government is starting to take strict actions. All schools in our country now closed. All gatherings of 100 or more people are prohibited. Pretty hefty fines (about $150.000) for people violating quarantine laws.
Today, our employer directed us to work from home from tomorrow. I think that is a wise move. Gladly I live some distance from all larger cities. Not as far as I would like, but at least not in the center of a large city.
Few days back we got a conference call from our boss, verifying who got the VPN, company cell phones, laptops nd external access to data. So I think our employer is taking all precautions well ahead of possible bad times. We got even hand sanitizers install in the company premises.
//EDIT: Corrected typo.
//EDIT: Added other relevant info.
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Our country is not that bad yet with the number of those infected. Yet government is starting to take strict actions. All schools in our country now closed. All gatherings of 100 or more people are prohibited. Pretty hefty fines (about $150.000) for people violating quarantine laws.
I'm not sure at what point that is going to happen in Sydney, but I'm sure there is threshold somewhere...
There is a decent chance we get away with this for now due to our warmer climate and just days out of summer here. But if that happens, winter would be open season.
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What is the deal with the $ 150,000 fine? This is unrealistic any individual would be able to pay.
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you didn't quote the part you commented on
I reckon I did, you know. (Well, clearly, you don't but I certainly do.)
Blimey, you couldn't make this stuff up :)
Just for my own future reading, I'll summarize:
James: I wouldn't go to hospital to get tested because, no cure, risk of exposure...
Metrologist: Reporters say health officials agree with that...
dunkemhigh: Whoa, you're moving goal posts. Some tangent about about stats...
:-+
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There is a decent chance we get away with this for now due to our warmer climate and just days out of summer here. But if that happens, winter would be open season.
Your climate has to be good for something besides fires and floods.
By next Winter there will no doubt be a vaccination or something, so you might escape this altogether.
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What is the deal with the $ 150,000 fine? This is unrealistic any individual would be able to pay.
Yeah, many people complained. But guess what will be the bill the state/gov has to pay the hospitals and such if one such idiot does not stay home and infects many hundreds more people? And you don't have to do much guesswork to find out people are retarded morons.
I agree that fine level is a nonsense, but I kind of understand it and idiots deserve this fine. And I hope the state/gov will go and really claw back the money from them. Staying quarantined for a couple of weeks is nothing that would hurt anyone. It is the least you can "pay" for being a moron visiting Italy in the middle of this crisis.
It is estimated we have more than 15 000 people in the freakin italian mordor. Good that they have locked all of them down there. You can bet there would be a lot of people that would lie about "they've not been in Italy" and just spread the disease further.
One such case I think was recently reported from Slovakia, where a parent lied about a child has been already tested on arrival from Italy, but it wasn't at all.
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A couple of more schools in Sydney hit as predicted.
Schools are open in the summer in Sydney?
Err, yeah, why wouldn't they be?
https://www.education.gov.au/school-term-dates-2020 (https://www.education.gov.au/school-term-dates-2020)
They get all of January off though.
BTW, it's now Autumn.
No reason, I guess. When I went to school here in the States, our school year was September 15th through June 15th. In other words, we got the entire summer off, except for about a week in September.
Do you have an "unofficial" start of autumn there in Australia like we do here? Although the actual start of autumn in the northern hemisphere is September 23rd, everyone considers it to start immediately after our Labor Day holiday, which is the first Monday in September.
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As someone with a lung disease I'd certainly rather not get this. When the flu comes around I get my flu shot since the flu can also put me in the hospital, can't do that with this. It's already around here so all I can do is wait and see if I get it. When I saw two symptoms were trouble breathing and chest pain I chuckled, I have that all the time. Guess I'd have to wait on fever or cough.
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Don't forget that some people will get such a mild case that they don't even think they have it. But they can still spread it wherever they work or play. Maybe they'll get in the statistics later on when people around them get sick.
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No reason, I guess. When I went to school here in the States, our school year was September 15th through June 15th. In other words, we got the entire summer off, except for about a week in September.
We get a week before xmas to end of Jan/early Feb, not quite the whole summer.
Do you have an "unofficial" start of autumn there in Australia like we do here?
Nope, 1st March is Autumn.
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Do you have an "unofficial" start of autumn there in Australia like we do here?
Nope, 1st March is Autumn.
Surely that's the unofficial start of autumn there. Astronomically speaking, autumn starts when the sun reaches one of its equinoxes (crosses the celestial equator), which occur twice a year six months apart. The March equinox this year occurs on 19th March at 03:34 UTC. The September equinox happens on 22nd September at 13:15 UTC.
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Do you have an "unofficial" start of autumn there in Australia like we do here?
Nope, 1st March is Autumn.
Surely that's the unofficial start of autumn there. Astronomically speaking, autumn starts when the sun reaches one of its equinoxes (crosses the celestial equator), which occur twice a year six months apart. The March equinox this year occurs on 19th March at 03:34 UTC. The September equinox happens on 22nd September at 13:15 UTC.
Can't say I've ever heard anyone in Australia use astronomical dates.
"1st of December, summer, you bloody ripper!"
"1st of June, winter, bummer"
And it seems official according to our BOM:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/seasons.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/seasons.shtml)
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Not just there. I wouldn't go to the doctor, unless I have fever, cause they will look at me, "prescribe" Paracetamol and send me home. I can stay at home and tell my employer that I'm sick, no matter what the sickness is.
But as I understand, lots of the infected have mild symptoms.
And that's the thing.
Mrs EEVblog had a mild sniffle the other week the same time Sagan had one. You don't call the virus hotline for that.
If I got a runny nose I wouldn't either, I'd just do my best to ensure no one else got it from me.
I'd likely have to have real symptoms like a fever (don't recall ever having a fever for the flu) or a cough (I usually get that post a bad flu) before I called the hotline or my doctor.
Visiting a family doctor for simple infections is more a cultural thing than a medical thing. Some people grow up with the expectation that every sniffle needs to be attended by a doctor, even when they have to pay a considerable amount for each doctor's appointment. Others treat doctors as a last resort.
Well, not just that. In Hungary and Belgium (example, because I lived there), to go on a sick leave, you have to bring paper from your GP to your employer. Sick leave means anything longer than a day. So if you have strep throat, common cold, or any other respiratory infection, you pay a visit to the doctor. I stay at home at worst times, as I dont want to pass this to my colleges.
Here in NL, you can pretty much stay at home for a few days, and you can do that on your own discretion. If your employer dont trust you, they can send you to the doctor, but it is unusual, I never was asked to do so. The law is different.
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As predicted, mass arse-covering mode has begun:
Harvard and MIT among others schools have told student to stay home and remote study after the spring break.
https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-prompts-harvard-mit-to-send-students-home/ (https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-prompts-harvard-mit-to-send-students-home/)
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As predicted, mass arse-covering mode has begun:
Harvard and MIT among others schools have told student to stay home and remote study after the spring break.
https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-prompts-harvard-mit-to-send-students-home/ (https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-prompts-harvard-mit-to-send-students-home/)
Why is that considered CYA? 90 schools in the community have closed because one student tested positive. My understanding is that the disease has shown to be more infectious and more deadly than the flu for all age groups, and that swift, broad-scale intervention is highly effective at containing the spread.
Although, when all the students still go to the ball game, it's kind of pointless.
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But as I understand, lots of the infected have mild symptoms.
I'd like to see some reference to that. I had the flu a couple of weeks ago and now I have it again. I don't know what to think of it.
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But as I understand, lots of the infected have mild symptoms.
I'd like to see some reference to that. I had the flu a couple of weeks ago and now I have it again. I don't know what to think of it.
If your symptoms are mild, you won't be able to tell without a test. If you're concerned enough to want one, I suggest phoning your health care provider as the first step.
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But as I understand, lots of the infected have mild symptoms.
I'd like to see some reference to that. I had the flu a couple of weeks ago and now I have it again. I don't know what to think of it.
If your symptoms are mild, you won't be able to tell without a test. If you're concerned enough to want one, I suggest phoning your health care provider as the first step.
Well, my wife is also under the wheather like me and she did call but got told that without fever or bad coughing she shouldn't worry. But then again in some parts of the country people with flu symptoms are asked to stay at home. On top of that I have the feeling that this is a typical situation where one asks himself: Do I really want to know? Do I really need to know? Does it really matter anyway? What bothers me most is that if the symptoms are mild for many people then the virus is way more wide spread and only the severe cases get counted. Either way, I decided to work from home and just stay inside as much as possible.
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If you think a lot of things have been shutting down lately due to the coronavirus, you ain't seen nothing yet.
With the new WHO pandemic declaration, governments, companies, schools etc will go into ultra arse-covering mode & shut down. Be prepared to work from home shortly.
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With the new WHO pandemic declaration, governments, companies, schools etc will go into ultra arse-covering mode & shut down. Be prepared to work from home shortly.
I am already working from home. We had a very high number of technical calls yesterday most from companies planning on doing the same.
I expect the schools to 'close' in the next few days. I got a very detailed email from the kid's secondary school a few hours ago. They plan business as usual, same timetable, but all online. (No CB Radio bush school style.) For the last few years the kids have had Microsoft accounts, MS Teams, full Office 360, Skype and Email etc. (Head of the PTA work in MS.) In the past they have only really used email, office360 and a few teachers use MS Teams. All the teachers are currently being trained on their use. The school now wants school books to be brought home from lockers each day, in case they are told not to open.
Yes they still use books, another local school is iPad only and from what we hear parents and teachers are not happy.
In contrast is the youngest (couple of weeks older than Sagon) National school. They probably plan on starting a very early Summer Holiday.
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I've been working from home but I think I'll go into the officer tomorrow, I'm actually a bit tired of being home. There's a group of perpetual worriers that I work with and during this time I've had to listen to them stirring each other up into a panic on a daily basis. I'm *so* sick of people posting all these hyperbolic news articles, you'd think the world was coming to an end.
The only thing I really fear from this virus is the very real threat of a massive global economic depression. Well that and the way people will behave if we ever get a virus going around that is unusually deadly rather than just unusually easy to spread. It's already chaotic and I have a hard time dealing with what I view as irrational/emotionally driven behavior rather than calculated actions based on coherent logic and reason. It stresses me out when I'm around people who are being emotional and I wish I could just tell them to shut up and stop perpetuating it. I refuse to let my life be ruled by fear.
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I see the the spam or phishing mail has started.
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I've been working from home but I think I'll go into the officer tomorrow, I'm actually a bit tired of being home. There's a group of perpetual worriers that I work with and during this time I've had to listen to them stirring each other up into a panic on a daily basis. I'm *so* sick of people posting all these hyperbolic news articles, you'd think the world was coming to an end.
The only thing I really fear from this virus is the very real threat of a massive global economic depression. Well that and the way people will behave if we ever get a virus going around that is unusually deadly rather than just unusually easy to spread. It's already chaotic and I have a hard time dealing with what I view as irrational/emotionally driven behavior rather than calculated actions based on coherent logic and reason. It stresses me out when I'm around people who are being emotional and I wish I could just tell them to shut up and stop perpetuating it. I refuse to let my life be ruled by fear.
Talking to the staff at the local supermarket, they were snickering about people buying toilet paper and kitchen towels in enormous quantities. Seriously, wiping their rears is people's main concern? ...
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There was a case in a city only 3 hours away from where I live. The fact that it's this close to home might make things get more interesting.
My company getting us to make sure we have VPN access in case we need to grab our desktops and work from home. I kinda hope it happens tbh, would be kinda fun I think... never got to work from home before. :P
I just don't know what they will do for the phones. Maybe install some kind of soft phone on our PC or something, but that has to somehow interface with the PBX and have all the lines work on it. Thinking they would just let the phones take a hit, maybe the IVR would just have a message saying to send an email for any assistance or something.
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It has begun. Sagan's school dance for tomorrow was just cancelled.
Advice received about large groups of kids gathered together etc etc
I give it till the end of the month before they shut down the schools.
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The only thing I really fear from this virus is the very real threat of a massive global economic depression.
I think that's almost a given at this point. When you already have the worlds airlines shutting down half their fleet or more, tourism virtually non-existent, local service business going bankrupt, and it's only just begun. And by the very nature of the problem, even if it settled down, will extend for many months. The global financial crisis is really here.
Those who have not prepared for this financially will be in for a world of hurt.
I don't want to be alarmist, but horde your cash and gold now, get as liquid as you can.
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I don't want to be alarmist, but horde your cash and gold now, get as liquid as you can.
An hour after I wrote this the aussie share market plunged another 8% :-DD
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Should be interesting for sure to see what happens to the economy. Shows how fragile it really is though...
I won't pretend to be an expert when it comes to this stuff but I do wonder if in the end it's not a bad thing to shake things up a little. Kinda like a system reset, so to speak. Things will eventually stabilize once all this is over I'm sure. It's a good time to buy.
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I think it will go right back up as soon as there will be positive news on vaccine development.
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I don't want to be alarmist, but horde your cash and gold now, get as liquid as you can.
An hour after I wrote this the aussie share market plunged another 8% :-DD
Not sure i understand your call for cash hoarding. The payment infrastructure is not going down, in China people did not have problems to pay online for stuff, did they?
Edit: In fact i think this will give a boost to online services if people will have to stay at home a lot.
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I don't want to be alarmist, but horde your cash and gold now, get as liquid as you can.
An hour after I wrote this the aussie share market plunged another 8% :-DD
Not sure i understand your call for cash hoarding. The payment infrastructure is not going down, in China people did not have problems to pay online for stuff, did they?
Edit: In fact i think this will give a boost to online services if people will have to stay at home a lot.
He's not talking about stuffing your mattress with actual cash. He's talking about having enough cash in the bank to survive if your stocks become worthless because of world events.
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I'm *so* sick of people posting all these hyperbolic news articles
Are the articles made up? Fake news? When even news sources usually considered pukka are essentially saying the same thing, are you suggesting there's some kind of global conspiracy and it's all a con?
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It has begun. Sagan's school dance for tomorrow was just cancelled.
Advice received about large groups of kids gathered together etc etc
I give it till the end of the month before they shut down the schools.
Even tho our country has under 100 infected, we already have all schools closed. Now they are considering even closing institutions such as cinemas, theaters, hair dressers, etc. Excluding only shopping malls and public transport, where they say it does not cause that much trouble due to people mostly flowing around each other, not staying together for more than 15 minutes.
They are also thinking about nation wide quarantine allowing people only to go out with a face mask or whatever is that thing called. Problem is, nobody has them and they were not available here almost at all even before the crisis started. Shite!
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They're preparing to shut schools here as well. They did Q&A session with students yesterday asking what tech they have access to so they can manage remote work to do. I think the plan is to shut the schools early before half term and hope it all blows over in the space of 4 weeks. That causes the least amount of disruption.
Still no pasta or toilet paper here which is depressing because I like pasta and shitting :-DD
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Still no pasta or toilet paper here
Try Aldi. All the supermarkets here (Tesco, Waitrose, Sainsburys, Lidl) have nothing, but Aldi had pallets of loo rolls being ignored when I was there yesterday. Maybe it's stiff crinkly stuff :)
Hmmm. Knowing my luck I've just jinxed them and they'll be sold out before I can run up there today.
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Looks like I'm going to Aldi at lunch then :-DD. Worst case I have a box of reams of 70gsm A4 paper :-\
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I am currently working from home.
My company is not yet directly affected, but we generally want to reduce "people density".
I have to admit, while technically I have no issues, VPN works good, resources are available, I still do not really like it.
I am simply not set up for remote work at home. My laptop dock did not like my screens at all, directly attached without dock I have only one screen, which my laptop cannot drive at it's intended WQHD resolution.
And that is not even talking about the constant distractions from family members, and all the stuff that is laying around on my bench >:D
I am essentially spending 12+ hours a day in the same room. Going outside is not really an issue due to the shitty weather here.
How is the situation on the Australian west coast? I have some extensive remote sessions planned for next week in the Perth area (Oh the joys of working for a multi-national ;)) but if the scare goes around in Australia I might be able to re-schedule that...
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...and all the stuff that is laying around on my bench >:D
That's the problem I have :-DD
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I'm not infected (supposedly, as of today) but definitely affected.
I'm a long-haul commuter (Sweden resident and local employee, but working from home in Italy ~20-25%) and my firm is now advising everyone to WFH till new notice, unless you have a compelling reason to go to the offices or labs.
So I'll try and jump on a plane to Italy ASAP (there aren't many airlines still servicing Italy) and join the rest of the family, knowing full well it will be some before I can come back. I know I'm taking a risk, going to the airport and travelling (especially to Italy).
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I think it will go right back up as soon as there will be positive news on vaccine development.
Or it turns out to be much less worse than expected and the virus has spread much wider than they are currently thinking.
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The only thing I really fear from this virus is the very real threat of a massive global economic depression. Well that and the way people will behave if we ever get a virus going around that is unusually deadly rather than just unusually easy to spread. It's already chaotic and I have a hard time dealing with what I view as irrational/emotionally driven behavior rather than calculated actions based on coherent logic and reason. It stresses me out when I'm around people who are being emotional and I wish I could just tell them to shut up and stop perpetuating it. I refuse to let my life be ruled by fear.
I can't help thinking of the Black Knight when I read that sort of stuff. You'll be in ICU with double pneumonia, telling people to stop fussing, it's nothing to worry about. ;D Of course, sticking your head in the sand is as irrational as being unduly worried.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs)
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The only thing I really fear from this virus is the very real threat of a massive global economic depression. Well that and the way people will behave if we ever get a virus going around that is unusually deadly rather than just unusually easy to spread. It's already chaotic and I have a hard time dealing with what I view as irrational/emotionally driven behavior rather than calculated actions based on coherent logic and reason. It stresses me out when I'm around people who are being emotional and I wish I could just tell them to shut up and stop perpetuating it. I refuse to let my life be ruled by fear.
I can't help thinking of the Black Knight when I read that sort of stuff. You'll be in ICU with double pneumonia, telling people to stop fussing, it's nothing to worry about. ;D Of course, sticking your head in the sand is as irrational as being unduly worried.
A bit hyperbolic don't you think? Yes, it could happen, I could also be hit by a bus and die or be diagnosed next week with terminal cancer. These events are unlikely though and the most likely result of me contracting covid is that I spend a week feeling crappy and then recover. The vast majority of people who get it do recover just fine, what makes you think I'll be any different? I'm in my early 40s, reasonably fit and healthy overall, I'm not in the lowest risk group but I'm far from the highest. Even if I end up very ill that still doesn't change the fact that most who contract it will recover without complications.
I still remember everybody freaking out about that swine flu several years ago. I caught that, it sucked, the flu always sucks, but it hit hard and burned out a bit faster than most and a few days later I was back on my feet, after 2 weeks the last signs of fatigue had passed. All that panic and it was really not a big deal, not more than the seasonal flu and yet we still have idiots that won't get vaccinated for that.
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Here , we are more "cachondos".
Here, we closed the Schools and the kids are with the grannies because many parent can't pay nanies neither can't work since home. Now the morest "cachondo" is that the grandparents and the kids are in the park almost all the day. :palm: :palm: .
And the chinese in Spain run away to China.
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The only thing I really fear from this virus is the very real threat of a massive global economic depression. Well that and the way people will behave if we ever get a virus going around that is unusually deadly rather than just unusually easy to spread. It's already chaotic and I have a hard time dealing with what I view as irrational/emotionally driven behavior rather than calculated actions based on coherent logic and reason. It stresses me out when I'm around people who are being emotional and I wish I could just tell them to shut up and stop perpetuating it. I refuse to let my life be ruled by fear.
I can't help thinking of the Black Knight when I read that sort of stuff. You'll be in ICU with double pneumonia, telling people to stop fussing, it's nothing to worry about. ;D Of course, sticking your head in the sand is as irrational as being unduly worried.
A bit hyperbolic don't you think? Yes, it could happen, I could also be hit by a bus and die or be diagnosed next week with terminal cancer. These events are unlikely though and the most likely result of me contracting covid is that I spend a week feeling crappy and then recover. The vast majority of people who get it do recover just fine, what makes you think I'll be any different? I'm in my early 40s, reasonably fit and healthy overall, I'm not in the lowest risk group but I'm far from the highest. Even if I end up very ill that still doesn't change the fact that most who contract it will recover without complications.
I still remember everybody freaking out about that swine flu several years ago. I caught that, it sucked, the flu always sucks, but it hit hard and burned out a bit faster than most and a few days later I was back on my feet, after 2 weeks the last signs of fatigue had passed. All that panic and it was really not a big deal, not more than the seasonal flu and yet we still have idiots that won't get vaccinated for that.
In general I agree but it still is good to slow the outbreak down so the health care system isn't flooded with people in one big surge. Germany's prime minister (Merkel) already announced that it is expected that 70 to 80% (IIRC) of the German people will likely get infected at some point. It wouldn't surprise me if it turns out the actual number of infected people is 100 times more than the current count.
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Still no pasta or toilet paper here
Try Aldi. All the supermarkets here (Tesco, Waitrose, Sainsburys, Lidl) have nothing, but Aldi had pallets of loo rolls being ignored when I was there yesterday. Maybe it's stiff crinkly stuff :)
Hmmm. Knowing my luck I've just jinxed them and they'll be sold out before I can run up there today.
The supermarkets in York just look normal. They have plenty of loo rolls, pasta, rice, and flour. They just aren't on special offer this week.
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London is fucked. Missing stuff:
anything italian, canned fish, beans, chopped tomatoes, pasta, arse paper, medicines, sanitary good all gone :--
Also Ocado's web site has just fallen over.
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In general I agree but it still is good to slow the outbreak down so the health care system isn't flooded with people in one big surge. Germany's prime minister (Merkel) already announced that it is expected that 70 to 80% (IIRC) of the German people will likely get infected at some point. It wouldn't surprise me if it turns out the actual number of infected people is 100 times more than the current count.
Obviously yes, but there is a very wide range between being careless and cavalier and freaking out and panicking. We should all try to be sensible and stem the spread. That doesn't mean we should be cowering in fear or imploding the entire economy in a likely futile attempt to avoid spending a few days sick in bed.
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Our country breached the 100 level. Another stricter actions taken by the gov, almost everything starting to get closed, gatherings of more than 30 ppl forbidden.
... and I am becoming quite scared tbh.
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Even if I end up very ill that still doesn't change the fact that most who contract it will recover without complications.
All this talk of most people not having complications is very misleading. The exact stats for how many need hospital treatment varies, but 12% is the lowest that I've seen, and was often much higher. That is the really big problem here. If great care is not taken then the healthcare system will get overwhelmed.
If there are 50,000 people in an area who need intensive care but only 5000 beds, there will be a very large number of people who will not make it. That is why there is so much effort (but probably not enough) going into slowing the spread of the virus.
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https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/coronavirus-donovan-mitchell-joins-rudy-gobert-as-only-traveling-jazz-members-to-test-positive-per-reports/ (https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/coronavirus-donovan-mitchell-joins-rudy-gobert-as-only-traveling-jazz-members-to-test-positive-per-reports/)
Apparently basketball players think they're immune then immediately test positive. Pretty dumb.
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I am simply drinking as much alcohol as possible ......from home of course. That should keep me safe or at least put me in a position where I cannot tell the difference.
Seriously....in my line of work things are changing rapidly. The annual National Association of Broadcasters show has been cancelled, TV shows, commercials, etc cancelled. These events are BIIIIIIG $$$$$$$.
Looking like I will get an amazing opportunity to freshen up the Factory400 and get some lingering projects done.
I will take lemons and make some lemonade.
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Even if I end up very ill that still doesn't change the fact that most who contract it will recover without complications.
All this talk of most people not having complications is very misleading. The exact stats for how many need hospital treatment varies, but 12% is the lowest that I've seen, and was often much higher. That is the really big problem here. If great care is not taken then the healthcare system will get overwhelmed.
The main problem is that we don't know how valid those statistics are. In general the health care services only test people with severe symptoms. It is logical that many of those severe cases need hospital treatment. However this doesn't say anything about the cases which manifest as regular flu (or less). As I wrote before: it is very possible only 1% of the infected people are sick enough to get tested. Hypothetically that would reduce your 12% to 0.12% of all infected people. But there is no way of knowing for sure at this moment.
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The main problem is that we don't know how valid those statistics are. In general the health care services only test people with severe symptoms. It is logical that many of those severe cases need hospital treatment. However this doesn't say anything about the cases which manifest as regular flu (or less). As I wrote before: it is very possible only 1% of the infected people are sick enough to get tested. Hypothetically that would reduce your 12% to 0.12% of all infected people. But there is no way of knowing for sure at this moment.
There is a lot of uncertainty about the statistics, but I've seen no evidence for anything like that. I think that the recent stats for Lombardy in Italy were 40% of those positive needing hospital treatment, and 12% intensive care, but they were just testing those with symptoms. In that case there were around 500 in intensive care mostly from an area with a population that the doctor involved estimated to be around 100,000.
Median age of those in intensive care was only 65.
Some more notes on Italy in this YouTube video by Dr. John Campbell:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2960036/#msg2960036 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2960036/#msg2960036)
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Some more notes on Italy in this YouTube video by Dr. John Campbell:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2960036/#msg2960036 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2960036/#msg2960036)
Nothing really new in this video but his statement that we all need to isolate ourselves so we minimise interaction with other people is very valid and that is what most governments are enforcing / suggesting at this moment.
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I'm *so* sick of people posting all these hyperbolic news articles
Are the articles made up? Fake news? When even news sources usually considered pukka are essentially saying the same thing,
are you suggesting there's some kind of global conspiracy and it's all a con?
Whatever the go is, everyone will soon find out when the dust clears, and or if it contained a high or less high percentage of dried BS/HS,
and who made more money, the pasta or loo paper manufacturers,
..or the hoarding scalpers >:D
as for 'Fake news', the gent to consult on the likelihood of that would be the current elected President of the US,
implying FNN is more viral than corona, :o FNN constantly mutates.. :scared: and that he cops a bit LOT of it. :rant:
FWIW haven't seen any Fake Newsers wearing any face protection, or the interviewed pooliticians and assorted experts ??? flogging this latest panic show
They must have built up an awesome immune system over the years surviving all the flus, outbreaks and zombie apocalypses :clap: :clap:
They should consider donating a blood sample, so a truth serum could be concocted to vaccinate the masses from the next strain of corona, fosters, vic bitter, SOL, XXXX
and even seasonal flu sniffles, hay fever, the runs etc :D
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Multiple Republican congressman have gone into self isolation over potential exposure. Matt gaetz specifically wore a ridiculous mask as he's been trying to get people to think about this as not just the flu.
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It was announced before noon today that all schools and colleges were to close a 6pm. The two older children spent the evening chatting with friends on MS Teams, all their classes were already setup and a few teachers were online, checking if they had access/problems with them. School starts at 9 tomorrow, following their normal schedule! A massive experiment, converting a large school online overnight. The little ones school probably follows most schools in the country, they were told to bring their books home and work on the next few chapters. 🤦♂️
The XYL is now happy with the number of desktops in the house!
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I'm *so* sick of people posting all these hyperbolic news articles
Are the articles made up? Fake news? When even news sources usually considered pukka are essentially saying the same thing, are you suggesting there's some kind of global conspiracy and it's all a con?
Not so much made up or fake as sensationalized. People are following the death toll like it's the score of a basketball game, every few hours someone posts a link to some other article that's essentially "OMG 2 more people have died!!", it's completely unproductive and does nothing but stir up panic. The article is factually correct (I assume) but like so many others it is not simply an informative statement of fact, it is sensationalized to boost ratings. Most of the global media is not "fake news", but news is absolutely presented in ways that attempts to boost ratings, bolster some political agenda or serve some other cause. Sensationalism in media is hardly new. People post this stuff at work and pretty much nobody is getting any work done because they're all freaking out and talking about the virus, which is a waste of time because we already all know about it, we're already taking reasonable precautions to avoid spreading it, there is nothing gained in fretting about things we cannot control.
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What a bell end :palm:
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Here in southern California they're shutting down Disneyland. That's pretty rare but they are paying cast members, not sure about other employees or if they'll continue working. I expect a phone call about that soon .
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There is a lot of uncertainty about the statistics, but I've seen no evidence for anything like that. I think that the recent stats for Lombardy in Italy were 40% of those positive needing hospital treatment, and 12% intensive care, but they were just testing those with symptoms. In that case there were around 500 in intensive care mostly from an area with a population that the doctor involved estimated to be around 100,000.
Given that there are only 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people in the US, in an area with a population of 100,000 they would only have 280 beds TOTAL. And many fewer ICU beds. I was in ICU about a year ago in the newest hospital in this area (I think the hospital had 300 beds) and it only had 8 ICU beds total. So unless there was another ICU in that hospital that I don't know about then there aren't going to be enough ICU beds to handle more than perhaps 2% of the people needing them. On top of that, US officials have already said that currently 65% of the hospital beds are filled and that doesn't include any Corona Virus patients.
Any way that you juggle the numbers, 2.8 beds per 1000 people doesn't work when 40% of those 1,000 (400 people) need hospitalization! and it certainly doesn't work for the 12% that need to be in ICU when the number of ICU beds is only about .05 per 1,000 people.
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The only thing I really fear from this virus is the very real threat of a massive global economic depression.... I refuse to let my life be ruled by fear.
There won't be a depression like the 1930's. Primary reason is advanced communications in the information age. A recession, yes.
Fear can be a good thing and a useful tool. I will soon invest heavily in the stock market, capitalising on the losses from those who fear that the end is near :scared:. In two years I will be thanking all the losers :palm:, that is if I don't die from the corona virus first.
Relating to electronic design, it is fear that drives me. Fear that I have not put in adequate EMC or ESD protection. Fear of safety issues. Fear of circuit instability. Fear of components becoming obsolete. Fear I have got my pinouts or footprints wrong. Fear can be quite helpful. Worry is but a waste of time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU)
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Schools will be closed for 2 weeks after March break here in Ontario.
There's a rumour that there is a case in my city, but it's not officially confirmed yet.
It's a good time to go skiing. That involves full body coverage and a mask. :P
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Fear can be a good thing and a useful tool. I will soon invest heavily in the stock market, capitalising on the losses from those who fear that the end is near :scared:. In two years I will be thanking all the losers :palm:, that is if I don't die from the corona virus first.
I was thinking the same thing.
Need more cash, though.
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Skiing - Our Trip got canceled and they are closing down resorts ::)
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We've just had the Sydney Royal Easter Show cancelled due to coronavirus (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-13/coronavirus-causes-sydney-royal-easter-show-to-be-cancelled/12052440).
This is one of the biggest events in Sydney.
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I'm an electrical engineering student at the University of Washington. We have some excellent greybeards here, they're calling this uncharted territory or extraordinary times. As somebody preparing to enter the industry it's not pleasant. I'm finishing a difficult senior project and also trying to secure a summer internship. Doors seem to be closing, and I'm concerned about the health of my mother who is retired and in her seventies. My dad lives in Shanghai and is a deadbeat Dad.
Being isolated at home is OK. It gives me more time to learn electronics - my embedded systems professor is constantly in contact with me in finishing my function generator project. IDK even how to express how I feel these days as a triple citizen who landed in the 'states. If somebody offered me a job in AUS or EU I'd be on a plane tomorrow. I went to the local grocer today and not only are the shelves stripped of TP but also canned foods like beans and pasta.
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I am also worried about the health of my parents and also a little bit about Job security... however I do not think we as mere Electronic guys can do too much about this situation...
At least I got myself covered in the TP department. If I am going to perish to this disease at least it is with a clean bottom. :-//
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Not so much made up or fake as sensationalized. People are [...]
That's a very considered reply, thanks, which I would go along with.
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Rumors circulating that many idiots are asking for refunds on returned hoarded toilet paper
That's a sure sign that the global malady is blowing over :clap:
Retail Team Member/Manager: Sir/Madam, what's the reason for the return? :-//
Idiot Customer: Not fit for purpose. >:(
:palm:
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LMAO dumbasses
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Rumors circulating that many idiots are asking for refunds on returned hoarded toilet paper
It was mentioned recently on Ozbargain that Woolworths and now Coles are going to alter their return policy on particular products. These were items that people were purchasing excessively, most of these now have limits in regards to the quantity that people can buy as well.
https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/523781 (https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/523781)
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Rumors circulating that many idiots are asking for refunds on returned hoarded toilet paper
It was mentioned recently on Ozbargain that Woolworths and now Coles are going to alter their return policy on particular products. These were items that people were purchasing excessively, most of these now have limits in regards to the quantity that people can buy as well.
https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/523781 (https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/523781)
:-+ That link is a good read and the comments rock! :clap:
"Quote from an email from Coles,
"From today we will be temporarily suspending our change-of-mind refund policy to discourage over-purchasing.
If you have already purchased additional items you no longer want, please look at donating them to community organisations
or neighbours who have been struggling to purchase them during this time."
Love it :clap:
The idiots can rig up their loo paper stash on the footpath now as furniture to sit on, and sell it off cheap :'(
I'm happy to pay 10 cents on the dollar for a car load of the stuff >:D and share the booty and cost savings with others that missed out :clap:
and that's being overly generous to these selfish hoarding lowlifes :--
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I shipped some supplies to my parents in Italy from Germany.
Italy is 99% closed, roads are empty. Police is patrolling the smartasses who are going out from home. If you sit down on a bench in the city the officer will yell at you to go home ASAP.
From the 23rd February to now the contamination in Italy went more than exponential. In just 3 weeks Italy become the most infected country after china.
I never saw something like this.
Stay home, be safe. I regreat to have underestimate the situation in the beginning.
PS: The whatsapp meme and video shared by the italians are pure gold. Strange people we italians, even if everything is falling down we still want to laugh and be happy.
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PS: The whatsapp meme and video shared by the italians are pure gold. Strange people we italians, even if everything is falling down we still want to laugh and be happy.
We Brazilians share the same sentiment. No matter what the size of the crisis is, we always have a laugh.
P.S. I sincerely hope that your parents and relatives go through this unscathed, now that Italy became the eye of the hurricane.
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[...]
PS: The whatsapp meme and video shared by the italians are pure gold. Strange people we italians, even if everything is falling down we still want to laugh and be happy.
Link?
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Italy is 99% closed, roads are empty. Police is patrolling the smartasses who are going out from home. If you sit down on a bench in the city the officer will yell at you to go home ASAP.
From the 23rd February to now the contamination in Italy went more than exponential. In just 3 weeks Italy become the most infected country after china.
I never saw something like this.
This is crazy. Looks like measures that would be taken in times of war (or even worse!)
We have had many other viruses in the past, but I've never seen something like this before (at least in my lifetime).
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I don't think any of us have seen anything like this, either the virus or the response to it.
This is crazy. Looks like measures that would be taken in times of war (or even worse!)
I don't think so - it depends entirely on how your PTB determine to fight it. In Italy they don't really have much choice now and they are presumably trying to replicate what worked for the Chinese. However, here in Blighty, our lying two-faced Prime Minister has got it right, I think. We aren't closing anything much or banning anything much (and people are whining about that), but they are figuring we're all going to get it sooner or later so it's better to have some get it now and others later to flatten out the peak (which will hit in a month or two). That way our health services stand some chance of coping, whereas everyone getting it at once like they have elsewhere just overwhelms things. Further, a complete lock-down before it ravages a country is only going to put off the moment of truth (unless you can hold it back for 18 months whilst they find a vaccination).
As to whether we need to react to it in these extreme ways, I think we do. The problem isn't the virus per se but the pneumonia which can result from it. If you get that you need an ICU bed, otherwise you die. Simples. We don't have enough beds so it's literally a matter of life and death that we either don't get it or get it over a long enough time that not too many need the care at once. Doesn't matter how many thousands or millions get it and carry on as normal, it's that small number that really do need critical care that this is all about.
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(https://www.elcorreodemadrid.com/images/carpeta_gestor/archivos/2020/03/11/WhatsApp_Image_2020-03-11_at_18.22.01.jpeg?r=9]https://www.elcorreodemadrid.com/images/carpeta_gestor/archivos/2020/03/11/WhatsApp_Image_2020-03-11_at_18.22.01.jpeg?r=9)
"Lo del virus os pasa por sacarme ,como paso con Tutankamón." The virus happens you for getting out me, like happened with Tutankamon.
Last hour, Spain declares the Alarm State ,officially we are in quarantine and with restricting movement during 15 days.
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I don't think any of us have seen anything like this, either the virus or the response to it.
This is crazy. Looks like measures that would be taken in times of war (or even worse!)
I don't think so - it depends entirely on how your PTB determine to fight it.
Note that my remark wasn't meant to express that it was unreasonable (which you probably assumed from the "crazy" word.) Just that it was starting to look as though we were at war - and no one knows for how long. So, crazy as in "things are getting much worse than expected".
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OK. It can be hard to tell without seeing the body language too, sometimes ;)
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Being isolated at home is OK. It gives me more time to learn electronics - my embedded systems professor is constantly in contact with me in finishing my function generator project. IDK even how to express how I feel these days as a triple citizen who landed in the 'states. If somebody offered me a job in AUS or EU I'd be on a plane tomorrow. I went to the local grocer today and not only are the shelves stripped of TP but also canned foods like beans and pasta.
I wonder what people will use to cook that kind of food in case of real trouble. By the time things get so bad you need the food then the gas, water & electricity will be shutdown too.
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Wonder what caused Italy to get hit so hard. They're not really a dirty country, at least not compared to places like Iran or China etc. I'm surprised India has not gotten hit harder, there is literally poop and pee and trash everywhere on the streets there as they have no sanitary system and so many people packed together. Perfect breeding ground for these sort of viruses.
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Doesn't matter how many thousands or millions get it and carry on as normal, it's that small number that really do need critical care that this is all about.
Emphasis mine.
This is the problem. It won't be a small number.
I posted a picture that summarised the strategy of many governments so far, but Dave took it down. I guess Australia is still in the denial phase.
Anyway, that 20% requiring hospitalization (more so the 10% with severe symptoms and the 5% requiring intensive care) will kill the health system of most countries if it is not aggressively distributed over a very long period of time.
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Yep. 0.5% will kill the healthcare system which is the problem. I think we actually only have hospital capacity for 0.24% of the population here and it’s already over capacity when idling. Routine medical problems with preventable mortality outcomes suddenly get a lot more dangerous.
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Doesn't matter how many thousands or millions get it and carry on as normal, it's that small number that really do need critical care that this is all about.
Emphasis mine.
This is the problem. It won't be a small number.
I posted a picture that summarised the strategy of many governments so far, but Dave took it down. I guess Australia is still in the denial phase.
Anyway, that 20% requiring hospitalization (more so the 10% with severe symptoms and the 5% requiring intensive care) will kill the health system of most countries if it is not aggressively distributed over a very long period of time.
Care to explain those numbers? The problem I see with the statistics surrounding the Coronavirus is that it is only based on known / tested cases. However there is no data at all about how many people get infected but aren't registered as being infected. Based on the information currently available a Coronavirus infection is like the flu for a significant number of people. Before you can throw numbers around you need to know the total numbers and also look at the age distribution of the population you base the numbers on. To know for sure you'll need to test a representative part of the population for Coronavirus (anti-bodies). That will probably happen after the dust settles.
Either way dunkemhigh is right that the spread of the virus must be slowed down in order not to overload the health care system with more severe cases. OTOH a major part of a real solution to prevent a future outbreak is to allow the majority of the people to get infected in a controlled manner and vaccinate the weakest (the latter like it is done with the 'ordinary' flu). That way the virus won't spread as much as it does now because most people have built up resistance. IOW: you don't really want to contain it like they did in China because it will only drag out the problem over a longer period of time. China is likely to get hit by an outbreak again.
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I wonder what people will use to cook that kind of food in case of real trouble. By the time things get so bad you need the food then the gas, water & electricity will be shutdown too.
While I agree that people overreact a little regarding toilet paper, flour and noodles, I guess the main concern is being condemned to home quarantine for two weeks or so, not the Zombie apocalypse where gas and electricity breaks down. Being forced to stay in your home for two weeks is a very realistic scenario right now, so it's not totally crazy that people think about having something to eat/drink and wipe their asses.
Again, buying toilet paper for a half a year is indeed insane but having a supply for two weeks or so is somewhat advisable right now.
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I wonder what people will use to cook that kind of food in case of real trouble. By the time things get so bad you need the food then the gas, water & electricity will be shutdown too.
Some people are forward thinking. They've been hoarding both toilet rools and rice. One can be burned to cook the other. This works especially well if after buying a pile of toilet rolls someone remembers they have a bidet.
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Care to explain those numbers? The problem I see with the statistics surrounding the Coronavirus is that it is only based on known / tested cases. However there is no data at all about how many people get infected but aren't registered as being infected.
When Italy had 2000 known infected, it had tested 20000 people.
But only people who got in contact with those 2000 known cases got tested. And likely a large number of people got left out of those test pools because they are unknown. Think about travelling by public transport; can they really trace everyone? All in all you still know nothing about the actual number of people infected. You have to keep in mind that everyone has contact with many people all around the world https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_degrees_of_separation) .
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I wonder what people will use to cook that kind of food in case of real trouble. By the time things get so bad you need the food then the gas, water & electricity will be shutdown too.
We're talking about a slightly more contagious flu here, not some Hollywood grade doomsday virus. Let's remind ourselves many people don't even know they're infected or have mild symptoms when they're sick. Even in the case of some extreme pathogen governments know utilities are vital from both a practical point of view and that of morale. They'll do anything and everything to keep those going which I suspect includes morally dubious or outright illegal options if needs must. But again, it's a flu. People need to take this seriously to limit spread but also calm the fuck down. The behavioral spectrum seems fairly binary with reckless disregard and utter panic at both ends and very little in between. Neither is of any use to us and rather counter productive.
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But again, it's a flu. People need to take this seriously to limit spread but also calm the fuck down. The behavioral spectrum seems fairly binary with reckless disregard and utter panic at both ends and very little in between. Neither is of any use to us and rather counter productive.
This is almost exactly what I keep telling people. I think it's a positive feedback loop, the people who are freaking out cause other people to be annoyed and shift toward reckless disregard, which makes people who are nervous freak out and panic and so on.
Thankfully I do think there are a lot of people out there being sensible but you don't hear much from them. The noisy minority on both fringes of the spectrum are the most visible.
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Being isolated at home is OK. It gives me more time to learn electronics - my embedded systems professor is constantly in contact with me in finishing my function generator project. IDK even how to express how I feel these days as a triple citizen who landed in the 'states. If somebody offered me a job in AUS or EU I'd be on a plane tomorrow. I went to the local grocer today and not only are the shelves stripped of TP but also canned foods like beans and pasta.
I wonder what people will use to cook that kind of food in case of real trouble. By the time things get so bad you need the food then the gas, water & electricity will be shutdown too.
Check the labels, of course, but the bulk of canned foods are safe to eat without cooking. They were precooked as part of the canning process. They may not meet your expectations without warming, but that's acceptable when the alternative is not eating.
But if you do want cooking and neglected to buy a camp stove and fuel, read up on solar ovens...they aren't hard to make in a pinch. Main requirement is a safe location with good sunlight.
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I wonder what people will use to cook that kind of food in case of real trouble. By the time things get so bad
But if you do want cooking and neglected to buy a camp stove and fuel, read up on solar ovens...they aren't hard to make in a pinch. Main requirement is a safe location with good sunlight.
Not an option for UK residents then. :-DD
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Around here there's no shortage of trees, so in a pinch I can always get wood to build a fire for cooking. Of course I have lots of more convenient options, and lots of food does not really need to be cooked.
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The problem I see with the statistics surrounding the Coronavirus is that it is only based on known / tested cases. However there is no data at all about how many people get infected but aren't registered as being infected.
Of course there is data (from China, South Korea, and Italy), and it indicates that there is no iceberg in those places.
OTOH a major part of a real solution to prevent a future outbreak is to allow the majority of the people to get infected in a controlled manner and vaccinate the weakest (the latter like it is done with the 'ordinary' flu). That way the virus won't spread as much as it does now because most people have built up resistance.
There is definitely no data on how long survivors will have immunity.
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The problem I see with the statistics surrounding the Coronavirus is that it is only based on known / tested cases. However there is no data at all about how many people get infected but aren't registered as being infected.
Of course there is data (from China, South Korea, and Italy), and it indicates that there is no iceberg in those places.
The experts may not agree with you on that:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-cost.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-cost.html)
Medical experts say that there have been few signs that the government has aggressively tested for the coronavirus outside of medical facilities in Hubei. Until they broaden the scope of testing, experts say, it will be impossible to determine the true extent of the epidemic because those who have mild infections might not see a doctor.
“At the moment we are focused on the tip of the iceberg,” said David Hui, the director of the Stanley Ho Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Some experts are increasingly wondering if China’s lockdown will become pointless the more widespread the virus becomes. Given the global spread of the virus and the difficulty of spotting mild cases, they say, it is unlikely that it will ever be completely eliminated — even in China.
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That'd be good news as the virus would be vastly less dangerous than currently thought or reported as the death to infection ratio is much more favourable than the numbers reflect.
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I had a close call with that Corona virus thing that's been going around, today !! Went to my local shops and damn nearly ran into it !! Lucky I bought all those toilet paper rolls .. Ima need them now !! Be careful out there !!
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I've got a case of the Coors virus in the fridge, but I'm not going to spread it around.
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We're talking about a slightly more contagious flu here, not some Hollywood grade doomsday virus. Let's remind ourselves many people don't even know they're infected or have mild symptoms when they're sick. Even in the case of some extreme pathogen governments know utilities are vital from both a practical point of view and that of morale.
More to the point, they're turning utilities on in areas where they have been shut off for lack of payment, because they know sanitation is important to keep things under control.
https://www.mlive.com/news/muskegon/2020/03/west-michigan-community-to-end-water-shutoffs-amid-coronavirus-fears.html (https://www.mlive.com/news/muskegon/2020/03/west-michigan-community-to-end-water-shutoffs-amid-coronavirus-fears.html)
You can also see that many areas are doing that - they really want everyone to stay inside.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=coronavirus+water+shutoff+end&t=ffab&ia=news&iar=news (https://duckduckgo.com/?q=coronavirus+water+shutoff+end&t=ffab&ia=news&iar=news)
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I had a close call with that Corona virus thing that's been going around, today !! Went to my local shops and damn nearly ran into it !!
Lucky I bought all those toilet paper rolls .. Ima need them now !!
Be careful out there !!
Thanks mate, will do :-+
You got lucky, had it been in the horizontal position and stepped on, youdav rolled back and copped a hospital bed and or automated wheelchair
or if you kicked it and some spilled on your foot you may have become a walking infection breeder,
although if a lemon slice was in there to sanitize the contents, maybe not. :-//
You did do the 'right thing' and report it's whereabouts to the authorities anonymously right ? :D
I hear there's slabs of the stuff kicking around, that can do over entire suburbs
..hiding in utes and dark dingy mancaves :scared:
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... I hear there's slabs of the stuff kicking around, that can do over entire suburbs ..hiding in utes and dark dingy mancaves :scared:
What horrified me was - there was a store right in front selling 100s of that Corona virus thing, and people were buying it ... and SELF-INJECTING it down their throats !!! DELIBERATELY !! That virus is faster acting than the authorities have led us to believe, as I could see it affecting these a$$wipes very quickly .. some even unable to walk straight !
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I've got a case of the Coors virus in the fridge, but I'm not going to spread it around.
Please don't!
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But again, it's a flu.
That's why it spread so fast in Italy. We were thinking it is just a flu.
Comparing corona with a flu is like comparing a firecracker with a hand grenade.
If you stay home and follow the rules there is no reason to panic.
Calm down and stay home. You will be safe.
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I've got a case of the Coors virus in the fridge, but I'm not going to spread it around.
Please don't!
Yeah, it is bad. I wouldn't call it a beer.
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SWMBO went to Woolworths today and came across a pallet of the home brand toilet paper. There was a security guard keeping watch and 2 big, burly staff members who were offering 1 pack to passing customers, without them even asking. That's something I've never heard of before.
She accepted the offer.
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Toilet paper is back here at least in Waitrose under security guard. Managed to bag myself 9 rolls of glory today.
(https://imgur.com/1It0eNT.jpg)
No pasta, no chopped tomatoes, no oils, not canned fish though.
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SWMBO went to Woolworths today and came across a pallet of the home brand toilet paper. There was a security guard keeping watch and 2 big, burly staff members who were offering 1 pack to passing customers, without them even asking. That's something I've never heard of before.
She accepted the offer.
In times like this its pretty common for supermarkets in many countries to enforce a one per customer or two per customer rule for key products. They are going to sell all the stuff at full price whatever they do, but allowing a few people to grab everything creates long term resentment that can hurt their business.
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No pasta, no chopped tomatoes, no oils, not canned fish though.
And the worst thing is: all that food likely goes past the due date without getting eaten (and thrown away). How much spaghetti do you want to eat?
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So true. Mine ALL gets eaten apart from the odd potato that escaped in the back of the cupboard. Doesn't take a lot of planning but most people are barely capable of that anyway.
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No pasta, no chopped tomatoes, no oils, not canned fish though.
And the worst thing is: all that food likely goes past the due date without getting eaten (and thrown away). How much spaghetti do you want to eat?
The shelf life of pasta is really long. Unless someone stocks up with an insane amount, they should get through it by the expiry date (unless they are behaving crazy, and buying stuff they never eat anyway). People stocking up with veggie will probably waste a lot of it.
We are down to our last 50 kilos of rice. :) We buy 10 kilo bags, and use several types of rice, so 50 kilos is a normal stock level for us. None of it ever reaches its expiry date. Dry foods are wonderful things for bulk buyers.
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Similar. Got a 10kg bag from the local Indian supermarket in Jan. that’ll last most of the year out!
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And the worst thing is: all that food likely goes past the due date without getting eaten (and thrown away). How much spaghetti do you want to eat?
The bag of pasta in my cupboard right now has a date of Sept 2021, and I doubt very much that eating expired spaghetti would kill you.
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Come on, where is your spirit?!
>:D At least 3 things you can do while WFH...
1) with your neighbours (remotely)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r357UgH7hU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r357UgH7hU) :clap:
2) with your family
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAEQKDvePiQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAEQKDvePiQ) :-DMM
3) alone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6mOqROO5DU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6mOqROO5DU) :-DD
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Come on, where is your spirit?!
3) alone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6mOqROO5DU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6mOqROO5DU) :-DD
Come on. Its 2020. Who has newspapers to cut up?
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A lot of people would never be able to cope in a situation like people had during ww2.
Of all the things to care about, what I wipe my arse with comes bottom of the list.
A friend was telling me what his dad taught him when he was a youngster (early 1950s) and they had an outside loo. They used old newspapers as toilet roll and his dad said "if you turn up the corners, you can use them to get the crap out of your fingernails"
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A friend was telling me what his dad taught him when he was a youngster (early 1950s) and they had an outside loo. They used old newspapers as toilet roll and his dad said "if you turn up the corners, you can use them to get the crap put of your fingernails"
An outside loo and no bath or shower was still very common in UK homes of the 1950s. Using newspapers as toilet paper was also very common, partly because it was actually nicer to use than the sandpaper they sold as toilet rolls back then. This was before the availability of cheap tissue strong enough not to disintegrate while wiping.
I was amused recently watching someone talking to a room full of students about how much the UK has changed since the 1960s. He commented about outside toilets going away, to which one of the students responded that they looked at a student house with an outside toilet, totally missing that the speaker was not referring to an additional toilet in the garden. Some people seem too privileged to think.
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Oh joy the crazy fuckers are turning up now. I've just had death threats from someone after agreeing with the government handling of things now containment has failed. They accused me of being a shill, that this entire thing is a government plot to kill the vulnerable and disabled and that I was going to get stabbed up. I hope they don't run out of meds for these folk :palm:. Another forum for ref, not this one.
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A friend was telling me what his dad taught him when he was a youngster (early 1950s) and they had an outside loo. They used old newspapers as toilet roll and his dad said "if you turn up the corners, you can use them to get the crap put of your fingernails"
An outside loo and no bath or shower was still very common in UK homes of the 1950s. Using newspapers as toilet paper was also very common, partly because it was actually nicer to use than the sandpaper they sold as toilet rolls back then. This was before the availability of cheap tissue strong enough not to disintegrate while wiping.
I have a fallback for toilet paper (the pictured one is not mine but similar):
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/pUCe2.jpg)
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Oh joy the crazy fuckers are turning up now. I've just had death threats from someone after agreeing with the government handling of things now containment has failed. They accused me of being a shill, that this entire thing is a government plot to kill the vulnerable and disabled and that I was going to get stabbed up. I hope they don't run out of meds for these folk :palm:. Another forum for ref, not this one.
These days some people think you're a Nazi and need to die if you don't agree with them what to have for dinner.
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A friend was telling me what his dad taught him when he was a youngster (early 1950s) and they had an outside loo. They used old newspapers as toilet roll and his dad said "if you turn up the corners, you can use them to get the crap put of your fingernails"
An outside loo and no bath or shower was still very common in UK homes of the 1950s. Using newspapers as toilet paper was also very common, partly because it was actually nicer to use than the sandpaper they sold as toilet rolls back then. This was before the availability of cheap tissue strong enough not to disintegrate while wiping.
I have a fallback for toilet paper (the pictured one is not mine but similar):
Your hose arrangement is very common in India. You still need something to dry with. I use a Japanese style bidet toilet, which will both wash and dry, so I have no need for toilet paper.
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Of all the things to care about, what I wipe my arse with comes bottom of the list.
Toilet paper may be preferable to tissues for dealing with a snotty nose, and it's kinder to the plumbing when flushed. Try blowing your nose on newspaper.
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These days some people think you're a Nazi and need to die if you don't agree with them what to have for dinner.
Authoritarianism has never gone away. It's amplified by the way the online world makes it so easy for people to exist in their own echo chamber filled with like-minded people, shielding them from any opinions differing from their own to the point that they start to believe that the vast majority of people are on the same page as they are and anyone who does not is a rare outlier and nut job.
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Considered a real nutter and or un-Australian here if not following animal racing and sports, and all the false social BS that goes with it,
including smoking, booze, rubbishing the other team and hating on over sponsored rich players and their trophy wives etc = intelligent, constructive, useful, brain food stuff :palm:
and they vote for their favorite poolitical team as well = more 'sports' activity, yay! :clap:
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Just a thought.. ???
Are the idiots hoarding the loo paper, planning to embalm themselves pyramid style, once they expire and go to the big supermarket up in the sky? (or down below >:D)
:-//
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I work as a software/firmware engineer for one of the largest companies that designs the products that most companies use for employees working from home. We are US-based but have offices worldwide, including in China. Most of our customers have either transitioned to home work or are actively testing it. (been great for our stock price so far).
(I also do some side work as a hardware/firmware engineer for a small embedded design company; I work 2000+ miles away from them and have never actually met any of them, so it's business as usual for me regarding that stuff)
I think it won't be a big deal for many companies, because a lot of at least the larger companies already do a lot of work from home anyways. But capacity planning, etc are important. If anything goes wrong, it will be with underestimating the resources required, licenses, etc.
As for us, we did a worldwide test on Thursday, of our tech support teams, just to load test our existing systems. Most of us work from home a few days a week, but never all at once, so we wanted to ensure there were no surprises. Went pretty smoothly and it was now announced that starting Monday, working from home is "highly encouraged" for all staff, worldwide, except the few who have to be "hands on" in the office. We are not closing offices (you still can come in if need be) but most people won't. For us, being most of the company at least occasionally works from home anyways, I doubt it will affect our operations much. (I WFH about 3 days a week usually). Our China and a few other overseas offices were already on mandatory work from home with the offices actually closed and they are starting to transition back into the office, now.
Incidentally, our sales and consulting teams were told not to go INSIDE any customer's office without approval. Also both foreign and domestic travel now require approval, as well.
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Of all the things to care about, what I wipe my arse with comes bottom of the list.
Toilet paper may be preferable to tissues for dealing with a snotty nose, and it's kinder to the plumbing when flushed. Try blowing your nose on newspaper.
I agree. But in a time of emergency it would still be bottom on my list of concerns
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Dave can you tell me if the corona is spreading less in region like Australia where the temperature is higher than the north planet?
There are rumors high temperature will block the virus...
Thanks
I live in South Florida. We are almost always warmer than the rest of the USA. In fact we already hit 90 (F) about a week ago, but we have mostly been in the low 80's. We are quickly becoming a hot-spot in the USA (my county, Broward, specifically). Everything here is rapidly shutting down. By the end of the weekend there will be little in the way of public things left running. WE are a heavy tourist region, too, and that is pretty much done, now. Spring break is going on, and we are one of the hot college destinations. Already some cities (Miami) are telling students to go home and closing a lot of the parties they are attracted to.
As far as I know, climate doesn't seem to matter and I've seen articles claiming that idea was actually a hoax.
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There is a lot of uncertainty about the statistics, but I've seen no evidence for anything like that. I think that the recent stats for Lombardy in Italy were 40% of those positive needing hospital treatment, and 12% intensive care, but they were just testing those with symptoms. In that case there were around 500 in intensive care mostly from an area with a population that the doctor involved estimated to be around 100,000.
Given that there are only 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people in the US, in an area with a population of 100,000 they would only have 280 beds TOTAL. And many fewer ICU beds. I was in ICU about a year ago in the newest hospital in this area (I think the hospital had 300 beds) and it only had 8 ICU beds total. So unless there was another ICU in that hospital that I don't know about then there aren't going to be enough ICU beds to handle more than perhaps 2% of the people needing them. On top of that, US officials have already said that currently 65% of the hospital beds are filled and that doesn't include any Corona Virus patients.
Any way that you juggle the numbers, 2.8 beds per 1000 people doesn't work when 40% of those 1,000 (400 people) need hospitalization! and it certainly doesn't work for the 12% that need to be in ICU when the number of ICU beds is only about .05 per 1,000 people.
I used to work for a long time at a large hospital district here in South Florida (one of the more population-dense areas of the USA, and worse, probably THE most elderly-dense area in the USA). Your numbers are about right... The only difference is that usually at least with larger US hospitals, there are several ICU's that specialize in specific things (like NICU for neonatal, CVICU for cardiac, etc). But the real problem will be ventilators and isolation rooms. For instance, our hospitals had about 4-6 isolation rooms per floor. Not sure how many ventilators, but nowhere near enough for the volume of people who would need them. And something that many don't consider: Ventilators are only allowed to be operated by respiratory techs. (remember that a patient's life is literally controlled by a button push on those things; one wrong move...) And each hospital only has a few of those...
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Dave can you tell me if the corona is spreading less in region like Australia where the temperature is higher than the north planet?
There are rumors high temperature will block the virus...
Thanks
I live in South Florida. We are almost always warmer than the rest of the USA. In fact we already hit 90 (F) about a week ago, but we have mostly been in the low 80's. We are quickly becoming a hot-spot in the USA (my county, Broward, specifically). Everything here is rapidly shutting down. By the end of the weekend there will be little in the way of public things left running. WE are a heavy tourist region, too, and that is pretty much done, now. Spring break is going on, and we are one of the hot college destinations. Already some cities (Miami) are telling students to go home and closing a lot of the parties they are attracted to.
As far as I know, climate doesn't seem to matter and I've seen articles claiming that idea was actually a hoax.
I agree. I'm outside of Orlando and we're been having hot weather (90F) and it doesn't seem to be inhibiting the virus. We jumped from 41 cases yesterday to 71 today. The first dozen or so were travel related but all of the ones after that seem to be home grown.
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I live in South Florida. We are almost always warmer than the rest of the USA. In fact we already hit 90 (F) about a week ago, but we have mostly been in the low 80's. We are quickly becoming a hot-spot in the USA (my county, Broward, specifically). Everything here is rapidly shutting down. By the end of the weekend there will be little in the way of public things left running. WE are a heavy tourist region, too, and that is pretty much done, now. Spring break is going on, and we are one of the hot college destinations. Already some cities (Miami) are telling students to go home and closing a lot of the parties they are attracted to.
As far as I know, climate doesn't seem to matter and I've seen articles claiming that idea was actually a hoax.
Florida is very wet right? Spread would be inhibited by spittle and fluids drying up quicker and that may be less favourable in moist swampy areas. You
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Of all the things to care about, what I wipe my arse with comes bottom of the list.
Toilet paper may be preferable to tissues for dealing with a snotty nose, and it's kinder to the plumbing when flushed. Try blowing your nose on newspaper.
I agree. But in a time of emergency it would still be bottom on my list of concerns
There are these antique devices called handkerchiefs, which are washable and reusable. I actually prefer them when the need is high...softer and easier on the nose.
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I went on holiday (to Australia from the UK at beginning of March), just before all of the "work from home" stuff really started to kick in everywhere.
Im due to return back to the UK at the end of March, but have been keeping an eye on the goings on at work every so often. My colleagues are all on work from home orders at present.
Given I have to travel, it remains to be seen whether they will ask me to stay home for a while to make sure I dont potentially bring anything in to the office. We already had one case of it and the office was cleared out for a deep clean as a result.
One of my colleagues is due to travel with his family to Australia at the same time I am retuning, but with the introduction of self isolation rules for anyone entering the country thats going to make their travel plans quite tricky.
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Of all the things to care about, what I wipe my arse with comes bottom of the list.
Toilet paper may be preferable to tissues for dealing with a snotty nose, and it's kinder to the plumbing when flushed. Try blowing your nose on newspaper.
I agree. But in a time of emergency it would still be bottom on my list of concerns
It would be high on mine simply because being comfortable goes a very long way. We're not going to starve or die of thirst, but even if were were that's a separate issue. Be a bit hungry and it's not a problem - you need the REALLY hungry for that. OTOH, spend half a day with the remains of a wet fart in your pants, or running nose, and you'll soon appreciate the vast difference between having tissue and not.
Edit: and it's not like we are in survival mode. Just imagining having to interact with someone whilst snot is running down your chin is... chilling. Hmmm. Back in a bit - got to check out the corner shop stock...
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It would be high on mine simply because being comfortable goes a very long way. We're not going to starve or die of thirst, but even if were were that's a separate issue. Be a bit hungry and it's not a problem - you need the REALLY hungry for that. OTOH, spend half a day with the remains of a wet fart in your pants, or running nose, and you'll soon appreciate the vast difference between having tissue and not.
Seriously?
Do you not have a shower in your home? Have you not discovered handkerchiefs? A rag from an old tshirt works in a pinch as a tissue to wipe your nose.
TP and tissue would be pretty low on my list, it's a luxury that is trivially easy to get by without, I mean it has only existed in modern form since the late 1800's and I don't think it was common outside of the upper class until the 1900s.
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Dave can you tell me if the corona is spreading less in region like Australia where the temperature is higher than the north planet?
There are rumors high temperature will block the virus...
Thanks
I live in South Florida. We are almost always warmer than the rest of the USA. In fact we already hit 90 (F) about a week ago, but we have mostly been in the low 80's. We are quickly becoming a hot-spot in the USA (my county, Broward, specifically). Everything here is rapidly shutting down. By the end of the weekend there will be little in the way of public things left running. WE are a heavy tourist region, too, and that is pretty much done, now. Spring break is going on, and we are one of the hot college destinations. Already some cities (Miami) are telling students to go home and closing a lot of the parties they are attracted to.
As far as I know, climate doesn't seem to matter and I've seen articles claiming that idea was actually a hoax.
I agree. I'm outside of Orlando and we're been having hot weather (90F) and it doesn't seem to be inhibiting the virus. We jumped from 41 cases yesterday to 71 today. The first dozen or so were travel related but all of the ones after that seem to be home grown.
Wow Orlando. I expect that place to become a real ghost town really soon, with all of the tourism essentially dead. Is anything up there still actually open (after Sunday)? We're still tying to tell the college kids to all go home, here. The beach seems to be business as usual so far, at least in the kids' eyes. Although tonight they announced that 6 students at one of the local universities just tested positive so things may be changing real quick...
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I live in South Florida. We are almost always warmer than the rest of the USA. In fact we already hit 90 (F) about a week ago, but we have mostly been in the low 80's. We are quickly becoming a hot-spot in the USA (my county, Broward, specifically). Everything here is rapidly shutting down. By the end of the weekend there will be little in the way of public things left running. WE are a heavy tourist region, too, and that is pretty much done, now. Spring break is going on, and we are one of the hot college destinations. Already some cities (Miami) are telling students to go home and closing a lot of the parties they are attracted to.
As far as I know, climate doesn't seem to matter and I've seen articles claiming that idea was actually a hoax.
Florida is very wet right? Spread would be inhibited by spittle and fluids drying up quicker and that may be less favourable in moist swampy areas. You
Not really as wet as many think. The Everglades are (or at least they should be, but humans have kinda changed that). But South Florida (Homestead on the south end to a little north of West Palm Beach on the north end) is basically one 20 mile or so wide slab of concrete. We call them all different cities but in reality, those are just political lines. It's wall to wall buildings and people down here. And we aren't in rainy season yet (that's probably a month or more away). This time of year we don't get much rain although we had a wash-out for 1 day about a week ago.
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Just heard that public servants will get 20 days extra paid annual leave if they have to care for kids if/when the schools close.
I'd be surprised if they stay open another couple of weeks.
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Have you not discovered handkerchiefs?
Had 'em when I was a kid, not since. They are massively inappropriate for cleanliness at the best of times, and right now you absolutely do not want snotrags festering in your pocket. The ONLY reason everyone used to have a hanky was because strong-enough tissues hadn't been invented when we were kids.
only existed in modern form since the late 1800's
The implication is that whatever used to be good for us is still better than what we have now. Which, pardon my French, is bollocks. The reason we aren't still wallowing in mud and sleeping in caves is because some people just weren't satisfied with what we always had and wanted better. What we have IS generally better. How about you replace your loo with a hole in the floor - good enough for hundreds of years, and still good enough in some parts of the world. Hell, go camping and it's good enough. Yet, for some unfathomable reason, most of us have flushing loos.
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I just read an article about Disney. They seem to be in this for the long haul. Apparently they sent a notice out to all of their "castmembers" (employees) with various things including the fact that they are closing most of the housing where many of them live. So basically, GTF out....
They employ thousands of foreign workers in EPCOT, for instance, for the various cultural things. They're shipping those kids home.
From the letters they were given (they have been published online in a few places), it sounds like Disney expects this to be a pretty lengthy shutdown. The things they say are not conducive of a 2-3 week shutdown like was being said....
I think we are gonna have about a 30% unemployment rate spike in America within the next week. Only those of us in "professional" positions that can work from home and things like first responders and infrastructure (utilities) are going to be working.
And so far there is little news on the government assisting the unemployed much. (we have things like unemployment but it pays you less than you would need to even pay the rent, let alone anything else).
Now the head infection specialist in the government is discussing closing all of the restaurants and bars and locking things down/restricting people's movements/etc. Sounds to me like my predictions of it becoming like Italy within the next week are pretty-much right on target.
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A little humor (or not?) from Berkeley....
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A cynic might think that Disney has figured ill employees are a liability and it'll be easy to find a fresh batch once everyone that's going to get ill has been ill.
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Not all employees are off. ONLY cast members(park employees staffing rides, suits, shops) maintenance and engineers are still working.
EDIT: Also to add Disney IS paying all of those that aren't working, it's free time off work.
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I just read an article about Disney. They seem to be in this for the long haul. Apparently they sent a notice out to all of their "castmembers" (employees) with various things including the fact that they are closing most of the housing where many of them live. So basically, GTF out....
UCF in Orlando closed several days ago but they told the students that were in school housing that they could stay if they had nowhere else to go. (UCF is the largest university in the US.)
IMO in the first place, Disney probably can't legal kick anyone out of their housing due to their contracts. Second, among other things, ALL evictions and power and water cut offs due to non-payment have been temporarily halted here by order of the STATE of Florida. Third, even in ordinary times the only way to force someone out of their housing is take it to court and to get an eviction notice and to have it legally served and since most of the courts in Florida have shut down so that's not going to happen. Fourth, in order to evict someone you have to call and arrange for a deputy sheriff to be present and to deliver the formal eviction notice to the tenant and I'm pretty sure that the sheriff's department would laugh at you if you asked them to do that right now. Disney might have told them to leave but there's absolutely no way that they can enforce it.
Evicting students or temporary workers right now is a really BAD idea. Not only would is serve no useful purpose but it would unnecessary expose them and the general population to more potential infections.
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This is nuts.....
https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Isopropyl-Alcohol-70-IPA-Isopropanol-4L-4-Litre-Fast-Evaporating-Cleaner/254539197994?hash=item3b43b7ee2a:g:bqQAAOSw7QdeayDS (https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Isopropyl-Alcohol-70-IPA-Isopropanol-4L-4-Litre-Fast-Evaporating-Cleaner/254539197994?hash=item3b43b7ee2a:g:bqQAAOSw7QdeayDS)
4L of 70% IPA ..... Up for auction, currently going for $355.00. :o
People are still bidding - and there's still an hour to go!
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(UCF is the largest university in the US.)
Interesting. I always though UF was. (I'm probably biased because I went there ;D )
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God damn it, I completely forgot to get alcohol. My board cleaning supply has been low all month. Guess I'll just stop cleaning them after repairs for now.
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This is nuts.....
https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Isopropyl-Alcohol-70-IPA-Isopropanol-4L-4-Litre-Fast-Evaporating-Cleaner/254539197994?hash=item3b43b7ee2a:g:bqQAAOSw7QdeayDS (https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Isopropyl-Alcohol-70-IPA-Isopropanol-4L-4-Litre-Fast-Evaporating-Cleaner/254539197994?hash=item3b43b7ee2a:g:bqQAAOSw7QdeayDS)
4L of 70% IPA ..... Up for auction, currently going for $355.00. :o
People are still bidding - and there's still an hour to go!
Final amount: AUD $520. :wtf:
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I work from home so I won't be impacted much.
However, the kids are normally at school and they are not now as they shut the schools where I am in the states at the moment.
It means I get far less done but it could be worse.
Some people will be completely out of work.
I am hoping something can be done for those people.
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God damn it, I completely forgot to get alcohol. My board cleaning supply has been low all month. Guess I'll just stop cleaning them after repairs for now.
Other flux cleaning products are still in stock.
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Almost a third of Sagan's class was away today, I expect that figure to increase throughout the week.
Rumor has it that the government will order schools shut down by the end of the week.
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God damn it, I completely forgot to get alcohol. My board cleaning supply has been low all month. Guess I'll just stop cleaning them after repairs for now.
Other flux cleaning products are still in stock.
I use flux remover but alcohol to remove the residue from that.
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Finger pointing has started now: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1182694.shtml (https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1182694.shtml) :palm:
Edit: another source: https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1238111898828066823 (https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1238111898828066823)
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I use flux remover but alcohol to remove the residue from that.
Get some "no clean" type?
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I use flux remover but alcohol to remove the residue from that.
Get some "no clean" type?
No clean flux is OK for some jobs, but the ones I have used are useless for high impedance circuitry.
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Oh dear. Had to collect a parcel from the postoffice today and, since it's a nice if cold day, elected to walk in. Once there my nose was running, as it tends to after some exercise, so had a good honk into a tissue. Next thing I know I'm in the centre of a cleared area about 20' across with many onlookers going blue in the face as they tried not to breathe.
I think I've just discovered a new way to jump queues.
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This is nuts.....
https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Isopropyl-Alcohol-70-IPA-Isopropanol-4L-4-Litre-Fast-Evaporating-Cleaner/254539197994?hash=item3b43b7ee2a:g:bqQAAOSw7QdeayDS (https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Isopropyl-Alcohol-70-IPA-Isopropanol-4L-4-Litre-Fast-Evaporating-Cleaner/254539197994?hash=item3b43b7ee2a:g:bqQAAOSw7QdeayDS)
4L of 70% IPA ..... Up for auction, currently going for $355.00. :o
People are still bidding - and there's still an hour to go!
Florida and I think most areas have laws against gauging people on the price of products during emergencies, (Like gasoline, food and water shortages during a hurricane). That's only been applied to commercial businesses as far as I know but it's high time that the prosecutors started going after individuals doing the same on Craigslist and Ebay. Hoard for your own use if you want to but no one should be allowed to massively over charge others for necessities for a profit during an emergency.
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https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/brothers-hoarding-17-700-bottles-155612516.html (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/brothers-hoarding-17-700-bottles-155612516.html)
They were being investigated and decided it is time to bear the loss :-DD
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This is nuts.....
https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Isopropyl-Alcohol-70-IPA-Isopropanol-4L-4-Litre-Fast-Evaporating-Cleaner/254539197994?hash=item3b43b7ee2a:g:bqQAAOSw7QdeayDS (https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Isopropyl-Alcohol-70-IPA-Isopropanol-4L-4-Litre-Fast-Evaporating-Cleaner/254539197994?hash=item3b43b7ee2a:g:bqQAAOSw7QdeayDS)
4L of 70% IPA ..... Up for auction, currently going for $355.00. :o
People are still bidding - and there's still an hour to go!
Florida and I think most areas have laws against gauging people on the price of products during emergencies, (Like gasoline, food and water shortages during a hurricane). That's only been applied to commercial businesses as far as I know but it's high time that the prosecutors started going after individuals doing the same on Craigslist and Ebay. Hoard for your own use if you want to but no one should be allowed to massively over charge others for necessities for a profit during an emergency.
I don't see how gouging laws can easily be applied to an approved auction format. In this case it isn't the seller driving up the price, it's the buyers. Once an item is placed for auction, what control does the seller have, legally or otherwise? Tell the winner he bid too much and the item will be sold to a lower bidder?
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I think that the current laws could be applied to auction just as easily as a retail store. The law (here) states that you can't sell items for over 10(?)% than higher than the normal retail price during a declared emergency. Many sellers are in clear violation of that. An auction seller could still sell but they'd have to cap the price at 10% over normal. Buyers might be willing to pay more but the sellers shouldn't be allowed to charge or to even accept more than 10% over.
In the case of E-bay/pay Pal, I think that they should declare those transactions void and refund the entire purchase price to the buyer, even if they've already gotten the product.
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Costco in California :o
https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1239676109731647491
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I don't see how gouging laws can easily be applied to an approved auction format. In this case it isn't the seller driving up the price, it's the buyers. Once an item is placed for auction, what control does the seller have, legally or otherwise? Tell the winner he bid too much and the item will be sold to a lower bidder?
Yep. The smart sellers will start everything at 99cent auction.
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Costco in California :o
https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1239676109731647491
I can give a first-hand report on two different Costos near me in the San Diego, California area.
Toilet paper and bottled water got hit hard over a week ago, but everything else was pretty normal. I have plenty of TP and water already, so that didn't bother me. No long lines, no problem buying food. My impression is it was just the actual preppers and opportunists that were doing mass purchases at that time.
Friday, after Trump finally declared a national emergency, was when everyone else reacted all at once. That was the day all the Costcos had lines around the building. Walmarts too (most of them have very large food sections) for that matter. I saw the lines, but I did not try to enter.
Saturday afternoon, things were back to normal. It was actually less busy than usual and nearly everything was restocked or in the process of being restocked -- there were lots of stock people working their butts off, but clearly Costco's supply chain was up to the task. From the chatter, I picked up that the freezer cases had been almost totally emptied the previous day. Still no TP or water, the pile of eggs was a quarter the usual size, and the quite large pile of SPAM cases were marked "one per person".
I also stopped at a Dollar Tree(everything is $1 each, before tax). They did have TP, if you were willing to pay a buck/roll....so it wasn't completely unobtainable. I was there to get several 2.5 liter bottles of Shasta root beer for a buck each.
Haven't been shopping since. I normally have enough of everything for months, other than perishables which can be done without, so you can call me prepared, but not a true prepper.
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Yep. The smart sellers will start everything at 99cent auction.
I like it when they set the starting bid at a price that is low enough to be a good deal but not so low that it's a complete steal because I can usually snag it for the opening bid.
When a popular item starts at 99c it shows up in everyone's searches and pretty soon you have idiots nickle & diming each other to death days before the auction ends. It almost always sells for much more that way.
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When a popular item starts at 99c it shows up in everyone's searches and pretty soon you have idiots nickle & diming each other to death days before the auction ends. It almost always sells for much more that way.
I've been doing this for about 20 years, it works. if you know an item will be popular then start is at 99 cents and watch them go nuts. I've never really been caught out by a low final bid price.
Not hard to research previous prices and bids for the same item.
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I can give a first-hand report on two different Costos near me in the San Diego, California area.
Toilet paper and bottled water got hit hard over a week ago
You can't give away bottled water here. The shelves are full of it. Either that or the supply chains for water are incredibly good.
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I can give a first-hand report on two different Costos near me in the San Diego, California area.
Toilet paper and bottled water got hit hard over a week ago
You can't give away bottled water here. The shelves are full of it. Either that or the supply chains for water are incredibly good.
I don't really get it either. I keep a few bottles in the van for road emergencies, and some more in the freezer to put in coolers on road trips. At home I use a reverse osmosis filter to get good tasting tap water, although it's safe enough even without the filter.
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I've been doing this for about 20 years, it works. if you know an item will be popular then start is at 99 cents and watch them go nuts. I've never really been caught out by a low final bid price.
Not hard to research previous prices and bids for the same item.
Yep, me too. I *always* start my auctions at 99c. If I have something that I know is worth something to the right buyer but doesn't have the same mass appeal then I just use BIN and set it at a reasonable price based on the actual selling price of similar items.
Ebay is an interesting study in psychology, as a buyer I can only shake my head when I see people getting in bidding wars when there's 5 days left to the auction. I *never* bid prior to the final day unless it's just to toss in a lowball opening bid to nix the BIN option if I want to gamble on getting a better deal. All the real action happens in the final seconds. Outbidding someone with days left accomplishes *nothing* except driving the price up and nudging them to spend more than they were originally willing. Love it as a seller but it's absolutely stupid and irrational behavior. I don't think older folks grasp the critical difference between online auctions that have a defined end time and live auctions that keep going as long as people keep bidding.
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I don't really get it either. I keep a few bottles in the van for road emergencies, and some more in the freezer to put in coolers on road trips. At home I use a reverse osmosis filter to get good tasting tap water, although it's safe enough even without the filter.
I never understood the bottled water thing but maybe our tap water is better than most places. The bottled water tastes like plastic to me, tap water has no taste at all.
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I've been doing this for about 20 years, it works. if you know an item will be popular then start is at 99 cents and watch them go nuts. I've never really been caught out by a low final bid price.
Not hard to research previous prices and bids for the same item.
Yep, me too. I *always* start my auctions at 99c. If I have something that I know is worth something to the right buyer but doesn't have the same mass appeal then I just use BIN and set it at a reasonable price based on the actual selling price of similar items.
Ebay is an interesting study in psychology, as a buyer I can only shake my head when I see people getting in bidding wars when there's 5 days left to the auction. I *never* bid prior to the final day unless it's just to toss in a lowball opening bid to nix the BIN option if I want to gamble on getting a better deal. All the real action happens in the final seconds. Outbidding someone with days left accomplishes *nothing* except driving the price up and nudging them to spend more than they were originally willing. Love it as a seller but it's absolutely stupid and irrational behavior. I don't think older folks grasp the critical difference between online auctions that have a defined end time and live auctions that keep going as long as people keep bidding.
People can be terminally dumb at "real" bricks-and-mortar auctions as well, getting into bidding competitions and overpaying massively for what they buy. Seen it many times! Knowing when to shut up, is a lesson most people never seem to learn.
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I can give a first-hand report on two different Costos near me in the San Diego, California area.
Toilet paper and bottled water got hit hard over a week ago
You can't give away bottled water here. The shelves are full of it. Either that or the supply chains for water are incredibly good.
I don't really get it either. I keep a few bottles in the van for road emergencies, and some more in the freezer to put in coolers on road trips. At home I use a reverse osmosis filter to get good tasting tap water, although it's safe enough even without the filter.
You take city water supply for granted. The point of having a bit of bottled water is an insurance against emergencies where tap water may be cut off.
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I can give a first-hand report on two different Costos near me in the San Diego, California area.
Toilet paper and bottled water got hit hard over a week ago
You can't give away bottled water here. The shelves are full of it. Either that or the supply chains for water are incredibly good.
I don't really get it either. I keep a few bottles in the van for road emergencies, and some more in the freezer to put in coolers on road trips. At home I use a reverse osmosis filter to get good tasting tap water, although it's safe enough even without the filter.
You take city water supply for granted. The point of having a bit of bottled water is an insurance against emergencies where tap water may be cut off.
Well, yes I do take the water supply for granted as it's not THAT kind of emergency. But if the water did go away I have: 40 gallons in the hot water tank, 3 gallons in the reverse osmosis tank, several cases of beer, about a case of bottled water in various places, at least ten 2 or 2.5 liter bottles of various things, and three bottles of orange juice. I think I'd be ok on fluids for a while.
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Flushing the toilet, washing the dishes, hands and body washing, cooking, all takes water.
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Flushing the toilet, washing the dishes, hands and body washing, cooking, all takes water.
And you're going to do that with bottled water? That seems like an awfully inefficient way to store that much water. If the city water supply fails we are pretty much all screwed, I mean just look at how people are handling this virus, it seems like everyone is in a panic.
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Flushing the toilet, washing the dishes, hands and body washing, cooking, all takes water.
Now you're confusing emergency life with normal life. Water is mostly reserved for drinking until the emergency is resolved. One should go into camping mode for an extended outage.
First flush is in the tank, but flushing can often be delayed. It also doesn't require using potable water. Pond/lake/ocean/stream/waterbed water is fine. There are also alternative toilets entirely, such as bucket and plastic bags.
Washing dishes...not important. Let them pile up for the duration or use paper products.
Hand sanitizer where required, some sponge bathing, but forget about regular baths or showers or hair washing. You may not feel as clean as you like, but you won't die.
Cooking is optional, but if one does one saves leftover water for a second use.
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You take city water supply for granted
Being over 70 years old and never having seen city water cut off I guess I do take it for granted. And the chances of it being cut off are probably 0.000001%. I don't understand the bottled water syndrome. Tap water is perfectly drinkable and 100% lower in cost. I think the people who buy bottled water have the same mindset as people who pay $5 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks that you can get for $1 at the Circle K store.
If you don't like the taste of tap water, buy a water pitcher that has a replaceable charcoal filter. It is still close to 100% cheaper than bottled water and environmentally friendly. The biggest pollution problem we have is disposable water bottles.
Edit: If tap water is shut off I will just take a couple of 10 gallon jugs over to Lake Pleasant and fill them up.
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All of Silicon Valley is now officially on lock-down. No one is allowed to travel except for "essential activities", which are narrowly defined to include visits to healthcare services, grocery shopping, and a few other things. All restaurants are closed except for take-out and home delivery. All other non-essential businesses are shut down for the duration. This runs through at least April 7th.
My company is shut down, but the nature of our work means that everyone took home whatever boards and equipment they need to do their jobs and will continue working from home.
Anyone interested in reading the text of the order can find it here: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/16/read-shelter-in-place-order-from-six-bay-area-counties/ (https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/16/read-shelter-in-place-order-from-six-bay-area-counties/)
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All of Florida: ALL bars and nightclubs closed for 30 days. That is gonna be a metric shit-ton of people out of work.
Apparently the feds are talking about a $1000 check being mailed to most Americans, but that wont last long and by the time it gets through all the red tape, it'll be amazing if much is left.
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SFA here. Business bail outs and direct loans to stop laying people off but absolutely fuck all for anyone else really.
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A loan is just a loan, even if the interest is zero it's still a loan and doesn't make up for the lost profit due to inactivity. Sooner or later it's time to pay the piper.
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Apparently the feds are talking about a $1000 check being mailed to most Americans, but that wont last long and by the time it gets through all the red tape, it'll be amazing if much is left.
The problem with mailing everyone a $1000 check is that most of them will take it and blow it within a few hours on a big screen TV or other non-essential. Also many will travel somewhere to spend it. This is not the time to encourage people to go out shopping. I would much rather the government simply apply a $1000 credit to everyone's tax bill so that they effectively keep their entire pay check and/or unemployment check and that the credit will get paid out gradually and not all at once which would simply encourage people to waste it.
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All of Silicon Valley is now officially on lock-down. No one is allowed to travel except for "essential activities", which are narrowly defined to include visits to healthcare services, grocery shopping, and a few other things. All restaurants are closed except for take-out and home delivery. All other non-essential businesses are shut down for the duration. This runs through at least April 7th.
Something similar over here.
Oh and now you need to carry some kind of declaration with you in which you state the date, what you're out for and you need to sign it. :-X
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I don't know that I'd even notice $1000, it would cover almost 2 weeks of my mortgage, and that's if they didn't take taxes out of it first. If I found myself needing to find a job it wouldn't buy much time. It's a nice gesture I suppose but it's a bit like seeing someone in a boat with a large hole in the hull and tossing them a roll of duct tape.
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It would be reassuring to know that billions are being spent on developing a vaccine!
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Apparently the feds are talking about a $1000 check being mailed to most Americans, but that wont last long and by the time it gets through all the red tape, it'll be amazing if much is left.
The problem with mailing everyone a $1000 check is that most of them will take it and blow it within a few hours on a big screen TV or other non-essential. Also many will travel somewhere to spend it. This is not the time to encourage people to go out shopping. I would much rather the government simply apply a $1000 credit to everyone's tax bill so that they effectively keep their entire pay check and/or unemployment check and that the credit will get paid out gradually and not all at once which would simply encourage people to waste it.
I think that the problem there also is that the inconvenient truth is that many types of people are not eligible for unemployment so taking out of your taxes on unemp check doesn't help everyone. And in many states (like Florida) unemployment is about enough to buy a cup of coffee. Won't even put a tiny dent in 1 month's rent.
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I don't know that I'd even notice $1000, it would cover almost 2 weeks of my mortgage, and that's if they didn't take taxes out of it first. If I found myself needing to find a job it wouldn't buy much time. It's a nice gesture I suppose but it's a bit like seeing someone in a boat with a large hole in the hull and tossing them a roll of duct tape.
Yeah... It would cover less than 1/2 of my rent. And my rent is actually low for South Florida. Many of the newer apartments are $2500-3000 a month even for a small closet. (we are trying to compete with NYC).
Luckily, I am FAR from unemployed and if they could clone each of us, they would. We are having to get really creative to even handle the load, but then again, just about every mid to large business on the planet uses us for work from home and a LOT of medical uses us for other things too (including nursing stations).
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It would be reassuring to know that billions are being spent on developing a vaccine!
Problem is that money only goes so far to "speed up the process."
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We've been very lucky in that a number of well heeled people have stepped up and donated millions of dollars to to medical research as soon as they heard about this. If the researchers had had to go through their usual sources to ask for funding and then wait till their next budget was approved then it would have been far far too late. This video mentions the donors several times and the last segment talks exclusively about some of the donors.
https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d (https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d)
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You take city water supply for granted
Being over 70 years old and never having seen city water cut off I guess I do take it for granted. And the chances of it being cut off are probably 0.000001%. I don't understand the bottled water syndrome. Tap water is perfectly drinkable and 100% lower in cost. I think the people who buy bottled water have the same mindset as people who pay $5 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks that you can get for $1 at the Circle K store.
If you don't like the taste of tap water, buy a water pitcher that has a replaceable charcoal filter. It is still close to 100% cheaper than bottled water and environmentally friendly. The biggest pollution problem we have is disposable water bottles.
Edit: If tap water is shut off I will just take a couple of 10 gallon jugs over to Lake Pleasant and fill them up.
I am totally fine with the taste of tap water, i just chimed about the reasoning why people buy bottled water today. As you may
have guessed, only a few of them have a liberty of filling their water canisters up from Lake Pleasant.
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It would be reassuring to know that billions are being spent on developing a vaccine!
Problem is that money only goes so far to "speed up the process."
Because of approvals and trials, it could take 18 months or more to get a vaccine. This is not your seasonal flu, where everything is already done and you just need to press start on the vaccine making machine.
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It would be reassuring to know that billions are being spent on developing a vaccine!
Problem is that money only goes so far to "speed up the process."
Because of approvals and trials, it could take 18 months or more to get a vaccine. This is not your seasonal flu, where everything is already done and you just need to press start on the vaccine making machine.
With the whole world melting down, we might see a little more urgency than usual with the approvals/trials...
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It would be reassuring to know that billions are being spent on developing a vaccine!
Problem is that money only goes so far to "speed up the process."
Because of approvals and trials, it could take 18 months or more to get a vaccine. This is not your seasonal flu, where everything is already done and you just need to press start on the vaccine making machine.
With the whole world melting down, we might see a little more urgency than usual with the approvals/trials...
Its not that simple. Bad vaccine can make the already bad illness worse.
I'm quite sure they are taking all the measures possible.
If it really has 1% mortality rate, and 60-80% of the population will get it (simulation shows, Germany and UK data) then this could kill millions of people.
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With the whole world melting down, we might see a little more urgency than usual with the approvals/trials...
It is urgent, that is not in question. But the normal development time for a vaccine is 2-5 years, so even urgent development is going to take longer than people expect. This isn't a TV show after all.
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Since so many people have been deliberately scared to stay home I've noticed much less cars in heavy traffic. :)
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Not here. I went out today and just drove around and it's very nearly normal traffic conditions. It looks like a lot of people that are out of work or out of school are using this as an opportunity to go shopping or visiting or whatever. Oh and I went by two large grocery stores and the parking lots there looked pretty full. No lines that I can see but there are many people in the stores.
If the US wants people to quarantine, it's going to have to be mandatory and enforced.
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Our PM came out today and said categorically that they are not going to close the schools. Barring any drastic escalation I guess, but they didn't even hint at that. The TLDR was that schools must stay open at all costs.
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Probably due to the knock on effect of all the parents having to stay home to look after them if they're sent home
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Probably due to the knock on effect of all the parents having to stay home to look after them if they're sent home
Yes, of course, that was my first point in the first post of this thread.
And grandparent can't look after them because they are the most vulnerable group.
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Probably due to the knock on effect of all the parents having to stay home to look after them if they're sent home
I think that any school closure really should be a last resort as it would have a direct impact on so many others and not just the parents or other carers. I live opposite a primary school and there is a constant convey of service and supply vehicles throughout the day in addition to the cleaners every night as well.
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Well I’ve got mild symptoms (cough, sore throat etc). So I’ve taken the kids out of school as per guidelines.
Apparently they have been threatening to fine people in some areas for this.
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Well I’ve got mild symptoms (cough, sore throat etc). So I’ve taken the kids out of school as per guidelines.
Apparently they have been threatening to fine people in some areas for this.
Which law have they transgressed?
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A combination of the vague specification of an education in the Education Act 1996 and the overbearing ability for our local councils and schools to be absolute complete cuntsocks because they are run by little Hitlers.
The answer will be "see you in court, probably in about a decade"
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Apparently they have been threatening to fine people in some areas for this.
rant mode.
I was 14 days in home office because I was in Italy. Today is my second day at work.
My department manager (not my direct boss, the one above) forced my presence at work. He is an idiot, a big one. My direct boss keep saying "I am sorry, could do nothing about this", I am beyond pissed off, like all the other colleagues in my team.
I am washing my hands like crazy and avoid people like opposite magnet poles. I go work using my bike, forget about public transportation.
Some germans colleagues are scared of me, which is good for me and for them. They keep the safety distance from me with just a bad look of mine.
What infuriate me more is seeing people in close circles in the city and at work, laughing like nothing is happening.
As soon I am done at work I go home as fast as I can on my bike.
More than 200 italians are dying every day, what we need more to understand this is not a joke?
I am tempted to tell my company I am sick with temperature, but fu%& I am not a dishonest guy.
FUUUUUUUUUUUUU
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I am washing my hands like crazy and avoid the people like opposite magnet poles.
This is where Britain is ahead of things. We avoid people under ALL circumstances.
That may seem like a joke, but its not entirely. A lot of Americans get really uncomfortable in many Asian cities, because people are content to be much closer together than most Americans are used to. These cultural differences can have a big effect in times like now. The key reason Beijing was a really big city long before anything in Europe was they had a culture of personal cleanliness, long before they understood the medical value of cleanliness.
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Not here. I went out today and just drove around and it's very nearly normal traffic conditions. It looks like a lot of people that are out of work or out of school are using this as an opportunity to go shopping or visiting or whatever. Oh and I went by two large grocery stores and the parking lots there looked pretty full. No lines that I can see but there are many people in the stores.
If the US wants people to quarantine, it's going to have to be mandatory and enforced.
Stray, thank you. I did notice again today. Even during rush hours there was much less traffic. It's clearly a case of many people staying home.
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rant mode.
I was 14 days in home office because I was in Italy. Today is my second day at work.
My department manager (not my direct boss, the one above) forced my presence at work. He is an idiot, a big one. My direct boss keep saying "I am sorry, could do nothing about this", I am beyond pissed off, like all the other colleagues in my team.
I am washing my hands like crazy and avoid people like opposite magnet poles. I go work using my bike, forget about public transportation.
Some germans colleagues are scared of me, which is good for me and for them. They keep the safety distance from me with just a bad look of mine.
What infuriate me more is seeing people in close circles in the city and at work, laughing like nothing is happening.
As soon I am done at work I go home as fast as I can on my bike.
More than 200 italians are dying every day, what we need more to understand this is not a joke?
I am tempted to tell my company I am sick with temperature, but fu%& I am not a dishonest guy.
FUUUUUUUUUUUUU
Where is this? Depending on the circumstances you could just get up and leave. Don't let authority trick you into something you consider unreasonable. Don't depend on other people's motives.
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Well I’ve got mild symptoms (cough, sore throat etc). So I’ve taken the kids out of school as per guidelines.
Apparently they have been threatening to fine people in some areas for this.
They're fining people for keeping children in school or taking them out?
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I just got back from weekly grocery shopping. I was really surprised. I would estimate only 10-15% of store-able food remains. I've been through floods, hurricanes, winter storms that shut down the Interstates for days, but nothing like this. I don't know where people are putting all of it. I spent maybe 50% more than normal on extra stuff like canned goods and pasta, but if things don't improve I will likely starve before any virus gets me.
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Yes, everyone around you acting irrationally is super depressing (imagining everybody in their rooms with a pile of toilet paper in the middle). And this of course - https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-gun-purchases-ammo-20200318-emc53brliragvofwa4ydowij3a-story.html (https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-gun-purchases-ammo-20200318-emc53brliragvofwa4ydowij3a-story.html)
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We've been shopping several times in the past few days to stock up on the normal stuff, no hoarding here but we did get an extra box of snack bars. The stores are crowded and as everyone has said, the toilet paper and tissues were sold out but it hasn't been any problem getting food so far.
I'm afraid I'll never understand the toilet paper thing, of all the things I could hoard, food, beverages, medications, cleaning supplies, ammo (if I lived somewhere I could hunt game if needed), firewood, camp stove fuel, gasoline, etc TP would probably fall to the bottom of that list. As long as I've got running water I simply don't need it, it's a convenience item.
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Our PM came out today and said categorically that they are not going to close the schools. Barring any drastic escalation I guess, but they didn't even hint at that. The TLDR was that schools must stay open at all costs.
Took about 4 days in here from "schools will remain open" to --> martial law, closing schools and 50% of parents pulling their kids out of kindergarden. :popcorn:
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School's OUT !!!!!! :scared: :scared: :scared:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXFsWAkLoXQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXFsWAkLoXQ)
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Been working from home this week with a cough - without testing there is no way to be sure that this is "just" a cough and not something more serious.
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I can't work from home, so I'm off sick with a cough. It started out quite mild at the weekend, but I came to work Monday to Wednesday, then people told me I should not come in today. The cough has gotten worse though and I didn't sleep well last night, although I don't feel unwell enough to be off sick. I might go for a cycle ride this afternoon, if it doesn't rain of course.
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I'd avoid cycling. NHS is rammed. Minimising risk is probably a good idea at the moment.
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Trouble is, just sitting around the house isn't good for mental or physical health in the longer term - and all signs are that we are in this for the longer term. Astronauts train for this sort of thing... the rest of us, don't.
I think it's important to think about what things we CAN do, now that virtually all normal activities are suspended. I normally work from home on my own anyway, so social activities are really important for my mental well-being, and I don't mind admitting I'm already finding it tough.
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Yes agreed. Go for a walk instead :)
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Trouble is, just sitting around the house isn't good for mental or physical health in the longer term - and all signs are that we are in this for the longer term. Astronauts train for this sort of thing... the rest of us, don't.
I think it's important to think about what things we CAN do, now that virtually all normal activities are suspended. I normally work from home on my own anyway, so social activities are really important for my mental well-being, and I don't mind admitting I'm already finding it tough.
Yes, I'm used to cycling around 14 miles a day, both to and from work and I normally go out at lunchtime. It's raining a bit now. I'll mow the lawn later and probably will go for a cycle ride at some point. The risk will be lower, than my usual commute to work, as it won't be rush hour and I probably won't do as many miles today as normal.
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Yes agreed. Go for a walk instead :)
Apparently not a good idea either - explicitly a 'not to do' activity on the NHS site. Presumably it's the half-life in aerosol form that's the issue there, and it can be blown hither and yon outside.
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Yes agreed. Go for a walk instead :)
Apparently not a good idea either - explicitly a 'not to do' activity on the NHS site. Presumably it's the half-life in aerosol form that's the issue there, and it can be blown hither and yon outside.
Funny. The only thing not banned around here is going for a walk or a run, as long as you maintain distance.
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Yes agreed. Go for a walk instead :)
Apparently not a good idea either - explicitly a 'not to do' activity on the NHS site. Presumably it's the half-life in aerosol form that's the issue there, and it can be blown hither and yon outside.
The NHS page I am looking at (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection)) says:
If possible, you should not go out even to buy food or other essentials, other than exercise, and in that case at a safe distance from others. The 14-day period starts from the day the first person in your house became ill.
and I have seen NHS people on the news say to keep you distance when out walking, rather than to avoid it.
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School's OUT !!!!!! :scared: :scared: :scared:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXFsWAkLoXQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXFsWAkLoXQ)
"School's out forever"!
Alice Cooper was ahead of his time!
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Trouble is, just sitting around the house isn't good for mental or physical health in the longer term - and all signs are that we are in this for the longer term. Astronauts train for this sort of thing... the rest of us, don't.
I think it's important to think about what things we CAN do, now that virtually all normal activities are suspended. I normally work from home on my own anyway, so social activities are really important for my mental well-being, and I don't mind admitting I'm already finding it tough.
What? We aren't sufficient social company?
I have to admit that after four days at home, I got in my truck and drove into town to see what was going on. I didn't stop anywhere but just looked. I was surprised at how many people were out and doing their normal activities. Two grocery stores were full, the usual long lines of traffic going in and out of the student housing even though the University is closed, even road (de)construction and the landscapers were at work.
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Trouble is, just sitting around the house isn't good for mental or physical health in the longer term - and all signs are that we are in this for the longer term. Astronauts train for this sort of thing... the rest of us, don't.
I think it's important to think about what things we CAN do, now that virtually all normal activities are suspended. I normally work from home on my own anyway, so social activities are really important for my mental well-being, and I don't mind admitting I'm already finding it tough.
Agreed. I already ordered a wetsuit so I can at least go for a swim in the lake nearby but I'll still miss the regulars from the pool.
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For those at home by themselves that might enjoy a lunchtime "pick-me-up", AV Geeks is doing a YouTube live stream each day at 1pm EDT.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV78nuSmJxTtHaD4wnzPJkA (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV78nuSmJxTtHaD4wnzPJkA)
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The NHS page I am looking at ...
Entirely possible it's changed since I looked at it last!
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That mention of lack of social contact got me thinking, to be honest.
I am in the office today, but I am almost alone. The company I work for has more that 1000 employees at my location, in the office building where I am sitting, normally around 400, in the open space office where I have my desk, around 30, with two of those offices used by IT.
It's eerie today. My office is empty, except for me. In the other IT office are two guys supporting colleagues that still need stuff for their home office. And then there are maybe 20 people in the rest of the building... All others are working from home.
I always thought of myself as not really needing many social contacts. Due to my living conditions and general "introvertness" I do not have many social contacts outside of the office.
Now I am actually missing something at the moment. The office was always quite busy (which is somewhat of a disadvantage if you need to concentrate), but I am honestly missing the banter... Now the silence makes it difficult to focus. :-//
Traffic in my area has noticeably gone down, even though it never really was all that busy on my commute. The supermarkets seem to do business as usual, even cheap noodles, rice, flour and toilet paper are available. Restaurants are only allowed to open between 6:00 to 18:00, non essential shops are almost completely shut down.
I reckon that this will last quite some time. I would not be surprised at 2 Months, and maybe even more severe shutdown of public life.
I wonder if we (humanity as a whole) will learn from this.
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I think we're all experiencing the effect of the shock to the system right now. Hopefully that, at least, will pass soon.
I'm quite used to being on my own during the day, but I try to arrange at least one customer visit each week for various reasons. If that has to stop - and it probably will, since most of the work I do *can* be done remotely even if it's not ideal - then it's going to be hard.
What? We aren't sufficient social company?
IMHO one of the great weaknesses of EEVblog is that discussions deemed "off-topic" get stamped out so quickly, so I don't really know anything about anyone's interests outside of electronics. Imagine sitting in a sports bar and getting kicked out for talking about music, it would be ridiculous, but that's what seems to happen here.
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I wonder if we (humanity as a whole) will learn from this.
Some will learn, most don't...
I kinda understand what you say, normally the IT and programmer guys are introvertive people. We like our space, if we have the computer we have everything we need to spend a day on, there is always something to do, something to check and something to fix.
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Now I am actually missing something at the moment. The office was always quite busy (which is somewhat of a disadvantage if you need to concentrate), but I am honestly missing the banter... Now the silence makes it difficult to focus. :-//
There are several key things you need to get used to when you start working from home. The change in social interactions is certainly one. Another is self discipline in time management, as exemplified by https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IW3lhfVpLL4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IW3lhfVpLL4)
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I wonder if we (humanity as a whole) will learn from this.
I kind of doubt it.
And it depends on what kind of lesson you're thinking of. If it means a major change in our economic models - I highly doubt that. If it means getting more prepared to such events, then probably yes, a little bit. Maybe in western countries we'll get to the level they are at in asian countries. I doubt it will be much more than this.
Funnily enough, all the survivalists that used to look like weirdos to most of us now start looking a lot less ridiculous. Will we all prepare like they do though? Nah (and it wouldn't be possible IMO anyway on a large scale.)
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I wonder if we (humanity as a whole) will learn from this.
Some will learn, most don't...
I kinda understand what you say, normally the IT and programmer guys are introvertive people. We like our space, if we have the computer we have everything we need to spend a day on, there is always something to do, something to check and something to fix.
Yeah, many IT guys are like that. And even many engineers in general. But there's a wide gap between just liking your space, being not very social and being isolated. That's when they realize they're not as asocial as they thought.
Being confined looks a lot like home detention. I doubt anyone likes that.
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Being confined looks a lot like home detention. I doubt anyone likes that.
That depends who you share your home with. I was working from home when we married, and my wife was a student. The flexibility that gave in how I allocated my time was just wonderful for a newly wed. If you aren't getting along well with the others in your house, or you live alone, you may find the opposite result. As with most things, one size does not fit all.
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Working from home needs very strict discipline to keep at it and not get distracted which I could never do. In my case, I could be home alone and still get distracted! For that, I am glad to be retired. :horse:
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Being confined looks a lot like home detention. I doubt anyone likes that.
That depends who you share your home with. I was working from home when we married, and my wife was a student. The flexibility that gave in how I allocated my time was just wonderful for a newly wed. If you aren't getting along well with the others in your house, or you live alone, you may find the opposite result. As with most things, one size does not fit all.
Of course, but that's still exactly like home detention. Sure it's not as bad if you have good company, but the rest is just the same. What does differ currently is that there are (as of yet anyway) no specific time of the day you're allowed to get out and you have no electronic device stuck to you ankle, but the rest is the same (over here at least): you can't get out for long, you must justify the reason, you can't get out too far away from you home...
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Trouble is, just sitting around the house isn't good for mental or physical health in the longer term - and all signs are that we are in this for the longer term.
Going back to mental health again, I'd say I'm in a fairly high risk group, as I've had mental health problems in the past and nearly ended up in hospital as a result. Exercise does help me with it, but I often find I need something to motivate me to get out of bed in the morning.
I got round to mowing the lawn today, but didn't cycle and will try giving it a miss today, partly because I hope resting will help my cough. I do hope to get back to it, before I go back to work. though.
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I'm working from home full time now due to it being mandated by my employer and it doesn't really bother me although it has thrown my routine out of whack and now I have trouble knowing what day of the week it is without looking at my phone.
Unfortunately I don't think it really does me any good since my partner manages a 24 hour animal hospital she is working even more hours than normal dealing with the fallout from the Covid panic, thus she is exposed to more people than usual and whatever she is exposed to I am virtually guaranteed to be exposed to. That's life though, the world doesn't stop turning when something happens and wait for everyone to solve the problem.
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Do you have an "unofficial" start of autumn there in Australia like we do here?
Nope, 1st March is Autumn.
Surely that's the unofficial start of autumn there. Astronomically speaking, autumn starts when the sun reaches one of its equinoxes (crosses the celestial equator), which occur twice a year six months apart. The March equinox this year occurs on 19th March at 03:34 UTC. The September equinox happens on 22nd September at 13:15 UTC.
Can't say I've ever heard anyone in Australia use astronomical dates.
"1st of December, summer, you bloody ripper!"
"1st of June, winter, bummer"
And it seems official according to our BOM:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/seasons.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/seasons.shtml)
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/meteorological-versus-astronomical-seasons (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/meteorological-versus-astronomical-seasons)
Our country is not that bad yet with the number of those infected. Yet government is starting to take strict actions. All schools in our country now closed. All gatherings of 100 or more people are prohibited. Pretty hefty fines (about $150.000) for people violating quarantine laws.
I'm not sure at what point that is going to happen in Sydney, but I'm sure there is threshold somewhere...
There is a decent chance we get away with this for now due to our warmer climate and just days out of summer here. But if that happens, winter would be open season.
No one knows enough to say that yet. Southern China''s climate is pretty similar to the most populated parts of Australia, so I don't think you should be too complacent. For example Sydney and Guangzhou have fairly similar mean temperatures in the coolest months.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney#Climate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney#Climate)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangzhou#Climate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guangzhou#Climate)
Never take anything for granted.
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I went back to the grocery this afternoon. They had restocked a bit, but surprisingly low stock on almost everything. There was one bag of frozen chicken wings left so I bought it. I got my prescriptions refilled okay, 90 day supply. And I also got a hair cut.
The lady who cuts my hair knows I like what I call a 6 week cut, which I will usually try to push out to 8 weeks before getting it cut again. Today I told her, because the way things are going, I might need a 10 week cut. She just laughed and went to work. My hair is now really short.
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Corolla Virus
The staff carpark at the primary school opposite has noticeably fewer cars than normal, I suppose they will simply have to close the school if staff don't turn up for work. :o
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Corolla Virus
The staff carpark at the primary school opposite has noticeably fewer cars than normal, I suppose they will simply have to close the school if staff don't turn up for work. :o
What's the bet you'll find them scaredy cats at the local shopping haunts,
queued up to HOARD buy MORE dunny paper and pasta ?
..exposing themselves to possible infected shopping trolley handles,
up close to other hoarding hellbound trash people breathing :o ..and exhaling who knows what :scared: :scared: :scared:
Can't even label them as cows or pigs, those two animal groups have their s*** together a LOT better,
nor make such a biggie about wiping their rears much less a 6 month/year loo paper backup supply :palm:
"**** the school kids, gotta get to the supermarket ASAP!!!"
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There goes the entire state of California:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471)
Only 39M people.
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IMHO one of the great weaknesses of EEVblog is that discussions deemed "off-topic" get stamped out so quickly, so I don't really know anything about anyone's interests outside of electronics. Imagine sitting in a sports bar and getting kicked out for talking about music, it would be ridiculous, but that's what seems to happen here.
Because I have seen countless forums get destroyed if they allow anything. There is a fine balance between too much moderation and not enough.
Off-topic social chit-chat will ultimately dominate threads, and new users here will just see endless talk about music, or politics, or cats and just leave.
If you don't like it then there is Usenet and Whirlpool among others.
We have a 108 page thread where you can post about yourself and your interests:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/new-member-please-introduce-yourself/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/new-member-please-introduce-yourself/)
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for "endless talk about music, or politics, or cats"
there's Facebook ;D
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There goes the entire state of California:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471)
Only 39M people.
Same with New York, 4th most populous state (20 million). I saw an article saying their governor just yesterday mandated that 75% of "non-essential" workers to stay at or work from home.
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There goes the entire state of California:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471)
Only 39M people.
That includes me now, although I'm already doing it. It's been almost six days since I last went anywhere, with the exception of visits with one neighbor friend who has also been staying home. We are both feeling normal.
The main effect of the order is to shut down all the entertainment/eating places that people might want to go, other than the essential services. That's pretty much the only way to get some people to take things seriously. Not everyone gets it unless it slaps them in the face.
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Here all places that sell alcohol are required to close at 6PM, Mon-Sat, and 2PM Sunday. Should ensure the shebeens do roaring business, along with the bottle stores and the liquor outlets, as people stock up and get plastered at home.
Yes, this is a country where there are advertising campaigns against walking drunk at night, and the Er's do not bother with testing pedestrians who come in in a MVA any more, they know that they are both drunk and likely also positive, so take the same precautions regarding fluid contact. You can not find masks and gloves anywhere, though I do have them for other reasons, along with a plentiful supply of alcohol and liquid soap, so just refilled all the dispensers at home for use, and grabbed a small pocket size one to leave in the car.
No work from home, just am avoiding going to shops unless needed, and use shops that are likely to be empty, which is why I paid bills at the Post office, a whole one person ahead of me, and another behind.
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There goes the entire state of California:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471)
Only 39M people.
I'm in California and I can tell you that this order is being widely ignored. Traffic on the roads and highways is not visibly different from normal, and the carparks of local business parks are filled nearly to capacity (and these businesses are not related to healthcare or any of the other "essential services" that are exempted from the order).
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There goes the entire state of California:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471 (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471)
Only 39M people.
I'm in California and I can tell you that this order is being widely ignored. Traffic on the roads and highways is not visibly different from normal, and the carparks of local business parks are filled nearly to capacity (and these businesses are not related to healthcare or any of the other "essential services" that are exempted from the order).
I did a drive from the valley to long beach last week and even with rain it was a fast trip. I think those who could were already home and with no exception list having been produced they can't enforce and have already stated at this point they aren't enforcing.
I have contacted a couple factories and they're not planning on complying(at least until there is enforcement). Although even for people that are going to comply I would have expected them to stop coming after Friday, not Thursday when it was announced. I'm personally responsible for 3 businesses shutting down on this past Monday. They heard I was in the hospital and decided they were going to take it seriously. :-DD
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Heard that they are close to getting us to work from home. Still though it's taking quite a while to get setup properly. This should have been done like 2 months ago. They have the softphone working and the licensing all figured out, now they just need to figure out how to transfer the programming from our physical sets. They also had to order special headsets, since you can't just use any headset with the software. So yeah this could still be a while I think. By the time it's all done this pandemic will be over. I think that's what they are secretly hoping. They don't like the idea of people working from home.
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Do not worry, it is coming to your hometown
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/opp-warns-businesses-social-distancing-1.5505439 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/opp-warns-businesses-social-distancing-1.5505439)
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They seem to be taking it seriously here. Schools are closed until mid April at the earliest. Every major college has postponed graduations. The few stores I've been in had blue tape on the floor at the checkouts marking "safe social distance". When I was at the pharmacy Thursday, every other seat in the waiting area was marked as "unavailable".
The apartment complex where I live now keeps the office doors locked and are running on an appointment only basis and even then they meet in the clubhouse and talk across the room. All maintenance postponed indefinitely except where resident safety or potential property damage is a concern.
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A funny side effect of hundreds of thousands of people working from home is that there's been a run on webcams. Go onto Amazon, BestBuy, etc and try and find one for a reasonable price/delivery date
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I still don't see what they're going to do, the current situation is unsustainable, I happened to read an article today suggesting that the lockdowns and social distancing may need to go on for a year or more but I don't see that working out, sooner or later more and more people will decide they'd rather risk death than be imprisoned in their own home and there's no way we can sustain having millions of people forced out of their livelihood for that long. Even after a couple of weeks of this people are going to start to get very restless. I suspect that under the best of conditions we'll slow down the spread slightly while committing economic suicide, beyond that it's just going to come down to nature doing what it does, a bunch of people will die, most will not, that's just life. Unless we achieve either herd immunity through the natural process or come up with an effective vaccine likely to take a year or more, I don't think the virus is just going to go away, I would guess it will start spreading again as soon as controls are relaxed. Guess we'll see.
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I still don't see what they're going to do, the current situation is unsustainable, I happened to read an article today suggesting that the lockdowns and social distancing may need to go on for a year or more but I don't see that working out, sooner or later more and more people will decide they'd rather risk death than be imprisoned in their own home and there's no way we can sustain having millions of people forced out of their livelihood for that long. Even after a couple of weeks of this people are going to start to get very restless. I suspect that under the best of conditions we'll slow down the spread slightly while committing economic suicide, beyond that it's just going to come down to nature doing what it does, a bunch of people will die, most will not, that's just life. Unless we achieve either herd immunity through the natural process or come up with an effective vaccine likely to take a year or more, I don't think the virus is just going to go away, I would guess it will start spreading again as soon as controls are relaxed. Guess we'll see.
Yeah, some of us will be unaffected, work-wise (I work from home a lot anyways so there really is no difference for me). But for the bars, restaurants, entertainment things, etc (Florida's economy is largely tourism), unless the government plans on paying all of these people to sit home, I don't see how a year is physically possible.
I know how things went after Hurricane Wilma down here, when we had no electricity for 30+ days. After about 2 weeks, things started to deteriorate fast....
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I still don't see what they're going to do, the current situation is unsustainable, I happened to read an article today suggesting that the lockdowns and social distancing may need to go on for a year or more but I don't see that working out, sooner or later more and more people will decide they'd rather risk death than be imprisoned in their own home and there's no way we can sustain having millions of people forced out of their livelihood for that long. Even after a couple of weeks of this people are going to start to get very restless. I suspect that under the best of conditions we'll slow down the spread slightly while committing economic suicide, beyond that it's just going to come down to nature doing what it does, a bunch of people will die, most will not, that's just life. Unless we achieve either herd immunity through the natural process or come up with an effective vaccine likely to take a year or more, I don't think the virus is just going to go away, I would guess it will start spreading again as soon as controls are relaxed. Guess we'll see.
Indeed.
I don't know what's going to happen. Right now the idea is to limit the spread. Thing is, at what point are we going to decide it's OK?
Once the lockdowns have been decided, it's going to be very hard politically to decide it's over - we have kind of a parallel with what happened regarding the fight against terrorism. It may take literally years before the special measures are canceled, and some of them may linger for yet longer. Really dunno.
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Do not worry, it is coming to your hometown
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/opp-warns-businesses-social-distancing-1.5505439 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/opp-warns-businesses-social-distancing-1.5505439)
By the time that forcible quarantining comes to Florida it will be much to late. The students at a nearby university are acting like it's Black Friday and are packing into the stores. And judging from the traffic , no one seems to be staying at home. But this is a major tourist area and everyone is supposed to go out and eat, party, drink ,shop, go to theme parks and other attractions and spend money in general so no ones knows how NOT to do those things.
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Do not worry, it is coming to your hometown
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-police-arrest-covid-19-1.5505349)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/opp-warns-businesses-social-distancing-1.5505439 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/opp-warns-businesses-social-distancing-1.5505439)
By the time that forcible quarantining comes to Florida it will be much to late. The students at a nearby university are acting like it's Black Friday and are packing into the stores. And judging from the traffic , no one seems to be staying at home. But this is a major tourist area and everyone is supposed to go out and eat, party, drink ,shop, go to theme parks and other attractions and spend money in general so no ones knows how NOT to do those things.
Can't the federal government decide and impose special measures to all states in extreme situations like this?
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They could try, but it could cause a massive panic or an armed uprising in some areas. You can't just force someone out of their livelihood, people gotta eat and pay the bills. All kinds of people take jobs that are risky to life limb and health in order to make a living. Imprisoning people in their homes for extended periods doesn't work either, it has a huge impact on mental health and people get antsy. There are not resources to enforce it either.
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They could try, but it could cause a massive panic or an armed uprising in some areas. You can't just force someone out of their livelihood, people gotta eat and pay the bills. All kinds of people take jobs that are risky to life limb and health in order to make a living. Imprisoning people in their homes for extended periods doesn't work either, it has a huge impact on mental health and people get antsy. There are not resources to enforce it either.
I don't disagree with you there, but this is basically what they did in many countries worldwide. People can still get out but just to run some errands, go to work but only if the job can absolutely not be done from home, etc. People are also allowed to get out for some exercising, as long as you don't go too far away from your home. If you're controlled in another city than your home city for instance, you're likely to get fined unless you can justify it very clearly, and not just for a walk...
And yes it absolutely looks like home detention as I said earlier... except that we didn't do anything wrong.
I understand this could be much more difficult to enforce in the whole US as it's a very large country, a different mentality and you probably don't have the resources to enforce it either indeed, especially since the country is so spread out geographically.
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I still don't see what they're going to do, the current situation is unsustainable, I happened to read an article today suggesting that the lockdowns and social distancing may need to go on for a year or more but I don't see that working out, sooner or later more and more people will decide they'd rather risk death than be imprisoned in their own home and there's no way we can sustain having millions of people forced out of their livelihood for that long. Even after a couple of weeks of this people are going to start to get very restless. I suspect that under the best of conditions we'll slow down the spread slightly while committing economic suicide, beyond that it's just going to come down to nature doing what it does, a bunch of people will die, most will not, that's just life. Unless we achieve either herd immunity through the natural process or come up with an effective vaccine likely to take a year or more, I don't think the virus is just going to go away, I would guess it will start spreading again as soon as controls are relaxed. Guess we'll see.
Maybe some of what we are seeing is the inevitable government "must be seen to have done all they could", then people breaking the quarantine can be blamed for the inevitable deaths.
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Who knows. I just view it with the attitude that it is mostly futile, those of us who can work from home should, those who can't should take extra precautions not to spread germs, those who are at greater risk should be able to take temporary leave while collecting unemployment. It is pointless and counterproductive to try to shut everything down though, viruses are microscopic, they reproduce in huge numbers, they are easily spread and it is impossible to completely isolate everyone from everyone else, it takes *one* slip up somewhere to bypass all of the draconian containment efforts. The vast majority of us are going to catch this bug sooner or later no matter what. The best we can hope to do is slow down the spread enough that hopefully the medical system doesn't get overwhelmed but loads of people have lost their jobs already which in most cases (in the US) means they have lost their medical coverage and the ability to pay doctor bills, we are going to see a lot of people die of all sorts of different things because they chose to chance staying home vs ending up with a huge hospital bill. Much of these will be difficult to link directly to Covid because they'll be caused by unrelated conditions that could have been caught by preventative care or non-emergency doctor visits. Then when you have people panicking and doing things like hoarding supplies and even stealing masks and stuff from hospitals that all just makes a bad problem so much worse.
One thing it does highlight is the utter lack of preparedness, even having some sort of plan in place to mitigate the damage would have gone a long way. We should have at least a few domestic factories that can manufacture medical supplies and equipment, even if they have to be government subsidized to compete with imported products during normal times, they can be idled when not needed but we NEED the ability to ramp up capacity quickly. I'm skeptical of the usefulness of surgical masks in these cases but none the less there is no good reason we shouldn't be able to produce billions of them, a modern automated production line could pump out hundreds of thousands or millions a day. We need to have the ability to quickly set up temporary hospitals like they do in warzones, we need to have a large pool of people who have had some sort of medical training so they can volunteer at these facilities in emergencies doing tasks that don't really need a fully trained and licensed doctor or nurse. This is all stuff we need to do 10 years ago, not today. I shudder to think what we will do if there is ever another world war, in WWII our factories quickly shifted over to produce vast amounts of equipment for the war effort but today we have virtually no factories to shift over.
In the nearer term, stores should have immediately implemented progressive pricing policies at the first signs of hoarding, buy one at the regular price, pay progressively more for each additional of the same item, that would go a long way toward stemming the hoarding. Then if only our media and politicians would focus on distributing the information without the sensationalism and hype, keeping people calm, reminding them not to panic, how to prepare, not to hoard, etc along with efforts to control the spread rumors and false information on social media. Instead it has been a complete shitshow with the media stirring panic and hype, creating a polarization of people in a panicked frenzy who think the world is coming to and end on one side and people who think the whole thing is a bunch of BS and refusing to take any action on the other. I think we'd be far better off if most people were sensible and composed and just stayed calm and took a few sensible precautions. Panicked and complacent people are both part of the problem and get in the way of those working on solutions.
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With the level of scrutiny the governments have been facing (and some that distort on purpose to gain political points), I think they have no choice but act as if they are doing something - see the enormous backlash that Mexican government is taking from its apparent lack of initiative.
At any rate, my cynical side is piqued strongly when some sort of worldwide consensus is reached: "is the trigger reaction designed to give someone an advantage or is the situation indeed serious?" I honestly don't know and hope the suspicion is misplaced.
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We should also be drilling into people's heads what to do when they get sick, most people by now either know what to do to reduce their chances of spreading it or they are never going to get that message. It's virtually guaranteed that huge numbers of people will get sick and now we need them to know when to seek medical attention and more importantly when NOT to. A vast majority of those infected are likely to recover on their own at home the way we do when we get any other respiratory virus, some remedies will be more helpful than others and some of the rumors that go around are likely to do more harm than good. Everyone who goes to the doctor or ER when they don't need to is one less resource available for someone who really does need it.
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Looks like NSW (my state) and VIC is going into lockdown on Tuesday for "non-essential services", that supposedly is going to include schools. State decision. They have asked for federal approval apparently, don't I don't think they need it.
Don't know what that means to single one-man-band business like mine that don't have employees or the public visit. Good luck locking me out of my lab ;D
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Looks like NSW (my state) and VIC is going into lockdown on Tuesday for "non-essential services", that supposedly is going to include schools. State decision. They have asked for federal approval apparently, don't I don't think they need it.
Don't know what that means to single one-man-band business like mine that don't have employees or the public visit. Good luck locking me out of my lab ;D
If you get it, will you be self-isolating in your lab? You wouldn't want to spread it to your family.
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Coronavirus is the best thing that could happen to engineers really. "Sorry Mrs Whoever, I've got to stay in the lab for 4 weeks now" (said while rubbing hands together)
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Coronavirus is the best thing that could happen to engineers really. "Sorry Mrs Whoever, I've got to stay in the lab for 4 weeks now" (said while rubbing hands together)
Cooking would be fun though. I suppose you could use the reflow oven for pizza, toast and bacon. Just give it a good clean first and don't use one which has previously been used for leaded solder.
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Yep. No frying pan? ESD metal tray with a couple of 25W resistors on it and a bench supply 8)
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Yep. No frying pan? ESD metal tray with a couple of 25W resistors on it and a bench supply 8)
Hot dogs are easy. Two nails and a mains cord. Learned that one when I was a kid.
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I think we'd be far better off if most people were sensible and composed and just stayed calm and took a few sensible precautions. Panicked and complacent people are both part of the problem and get in the way of those working on solutions.
In your fantasy world, where everyone behaves sensibly like you, everything works out fine for the survivors. ("Every man for himself").
In the real world, people are not "sensible and composed and just stayed calm and took a few sensible precautions". Letting thousands of people die needlessly is not an option. Now do you understand the problem?
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I was at home all last week, and our company mandated it on Wednesday. And it will probably continue for the foreseeable future.
And while normally that would be a good thing (partly because I have a REAL computer at home, not the POS they hand out at work), in this environment it's freakin' depressing. Mostly because of the the hysterical click-bait doomsayers in the media, in internet forums, etc. The thought that there's this cloud hanging over and you can't do your normal daily stuff puts a damper on everything. Even if you wouldn't normally be running around doing stuff, just the thought of this big problem makes everything kinda depressing.
On one hand I'll admit the overreaction is a good thing if it gets people to be super cautious and isolate and not spread this thing. But geez, these predictions of doom by self-proclaimed experts who have no clue what they're talking about are just useless, and only serve to upset everyone, and throw rationality out the window.
In my area basically all the stores are closed with the exception of supermarkets, WalMart and other food stores. The local university is operating online only, but when I drive thru it seems like 50% of the dorms are still occupied, with students walking around in groups like nothing's happening.
Strangely, it's guaranteed that when they get a 3 day holiday or spring break the campus is suddenly totally empty. Go figure. But hey, I'm just a boomer, so clearly they know something I don't.
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I feel like this article is worth a read:
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196
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Looks like NSW (my state) and VIC is going into lockdown on Tuesday for "non-essential services", that supposedly is going to include schools. State decision. They have asked for federal approval apparently, don't I don't think they need it.
Don't know what that means to single one-man-band business like mine that don't have employees or the public visit. Good luck locking me out of my lab ;D
It is a good idea to make sure you can continue your business from home (be it at a reduced scale). It is possible someone locks the building your lab is in. One of my customers is in a university building. They have spread the various equipment over people's homes so the company can continue to operate in a distributed manner.
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Looks like NSW (my state) and VIC is going into lockdown on Tuesday for "non-essential services", that supposedly is going to include schools. State decision. They have asked for federal approval apparently, don't I don't think they need it.
Don't know what that means to single one-man-band business like mine that don't have employees or the public visit. Good luck locking me out of my lab ;D
It is a good idea to make sure you can continue your business from home (be it at a reduced scale). It is possible someone locks the building your lab is in. One of my customers is in a university building. They have spread the various equipment over people's homes so the company can continue to operate in a distributed manner.
here the university locked the doors and disabled all keycards
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The local university is operating online only, but when I drive thru it seems like 50% of the dorms are still occupied, with students walking around in groups like nothing's happening.
Strangely, it's guaranteed that when they get a 3 day holiday or spring break the campus is suddenly totally empty. Go figure. But hey, I'm just a boomer, so clearly they know something I don't.
Yeah, they know they will most likely survive.
getting as many as possible infected and immunized might be one way to stop the spread if only we could only keep it away
from those with the biggest risk of serious effects
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I think we'd be far better off if most people were sensible and composed and just stayed calm and took a few sensible precautions. Panicked and complacent people are both part of the problem and get in the way of those working on solutions.
In your fantasy world, where everyone behaves sensibly like you, everything works out fine for the survivors. ("Every man for himself").
In the real world, people are not "sensible and composed and just stayed calm and took a few sensible precautions". Letting thousands of people die needlessly is not an option. Now do you understand the problem?
It is you who completely missed the point of what I was trying to say. Obviously a lot of people are idiots who are utterly incapable of remaining calm during emergencies, I will never understand this. Still we should be trying hard to keep people calm as panic is an additional problem. Now do you understand the problem?
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I was at home all last week, and our company mandated it on Wednesday. And it will probably continue for the foreseeable future.
And while normally that would be a good thing (partly because I have a REAL computer at home, not the POS they hand out at work), in this environment it's freakin' depressing. Mostly because of the the hysterical click-bait doomsayers in the media, in internet forums, etc. The thought that there's this cloud hanging over and you can't do your normal daily stuff puts a damper on everything. Even if you wouldn't normally be running around doing stuff, just the thought of this big problem makes everything kinda depressing.
On one hand I'll admit the overreaction is a good thing if it gets people to be super cautious and isolate and not spread this thing. But geez, these predictions of doom by self-proclaimed experts who have no clue what they're talking about are just useless, and only serve to upset everyone, and throw rationality out the window.
In my area basically all the stores are closed with the exception of supermarkets, WalMart and other food stores. The local university is operating online only, but when I drive thru it seems like 50% of the dorms are still occupied, with students walking around in groups like nothing's happening.
Strangely, it's guaranteed that when they get a 3 day holiday or spring break the campus is suddenly totally empty. Go figure. But hey, I'm just a boomer, so clearly they know something I don't.
The overreaction is a bad thing because everyone who overreacts and flails causes other people to blow off the whole thing as a stupid hysteria over nothing. We would have done a lot better having a plan in place and a calm, measured approach. Stop the panic and you stop the other half of the people from ignoring the threat and going around spreading germs. The news media is as guilty here as anyone, I stopped even reading the news regularly because every day it was flooded with sensationalized headlines engineered to keep people worked up into a frenzy glued to the news. This does NOT HELP, it creates this polarized response that we see.
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The overreaction is a bad thing because everyone who overreacts and flails causes other people to blow off the whole thing as a stupid hysteria over nothing. We would have done a lot better having a plan in place and a calm, measured approach. Stop the panic and you stop the other half of the people from ignoring the threat and going around spreading germs. The news media is as guilty here as anyone, I stopped even reading the news regularly because every day it was flooded with sensationalized headlines engineered to keep people worked up into a frenzy glued to the news. This does NOT HELP, it creates this polarized response that we see.
Agreed.
I'm relatively surprised about how things are going currently over here. French people are not known to be particularly compliant with directives in general, but things are going surprisingly smoothly here actually. The vast majority follows the rules and keeps calm. First day of confinement, some people were still getting out a bit too much, but frankly nothing as bad as we saw in the US, and after the government reminded people that confinement was to be followed more seriously, people basically stopped doing that.
There is no panic that I know of. The media keep bombarding people with news about it of course, but they still keep rather calm and reasonable. Dunno how long that will last though, as it's only been less than a week...
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The overreaction is a bad thing because everyone who overreacts and flails causes other people to blow off the whole thing as a stupid hysteria over nothing. We would have done a lot better having a plan in place and a calm, measured approach.
You mean, like having a Quick Response Pandemic Team?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/)
Good idea.
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The overreaction is a bad thing because everyone who overreacts and flails causes other people to blow off the whole thing as a stupid hysteria over nothing. We would have done a lot better having a plan in place and a calm, measured approach.
You mean, like having a Quick Response Pandemic Team?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/)
Good idea.
You don't have to convince me. I didn't fire the team and I didn't vote for the guy who did, that's water under the bridge though, what's done has been done and there's nothing we can do to change that now.
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The overreaction is a bad thing because everyone who overreacts and flails causes other people to blow off the whole thing as a stupid hysteria over nothing. We would have done a lot better having a plan in place and a calm, measured approach.
You mean, like having a Quick Response Pandemic Team?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/)
Good idea.
You don't have to convince me. I didn't fire the team and I didn't vote for the guy who did, that's water under the bridge though, what's done has been done and there's nothing we can do to change that now.
And it's far from the only country that did similar things.
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Agreed.
I'm relatively surprised about how things are going currently over here. French people are not known to be particularly compliant with directives in general, but things are going surprisingly smoothly here actually. The vast majority follows the rules and keeps calm. First day of confinement, some people were still getting out a bit too much, but frankly nothing as bad as we saw in the US, and after the government reminded people that confinement was to be followed more seriously, people basically stopped doing that.
There is no panic that I know of. The media keep bombarding people with news about it of course, but they still keep rather calm and reasonable. Dunno how long that will last though, as it's only been less than a week...
I've never been to France but I've always pictured French culture as rather calm, polite and organized overall so I'm not all that surprised to hear this. Not all Americans are loud, crude, ignorant self absorbed boobs but I'll be the first to admit that the stereotypes have some basis in reality.
At this point I think nobody really knows what will happen but the data posted earlier suggests that it is largely futile and even the most drastic measures are unlikely to make enough difference to really matter. I've been working from home and have barely left the house in weeks, my partner has what is deemed an essential job so she was going to work until recently when she got sick and now we both have symptoms resembling a very mild cold. Slight fever then she got a sore throat for about a day while mine was just a tickle and now it's sniffles, overall gooey respiratory system and fatigue. She was hit a bit harder than me but is starting to feel a lot better today while I'm still extremely tired but otherwise feel pretty good. I suppose it could be Covid but I can't help but think something this mild can't possibly be that but who knows. No sense in trying to get tested, there are others who need the testing far more than we do and going to any kind of facility seems like a great way to collect any bugs I didn't already have. I was already staying in anyway so I'll continue to do so.
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Still we should be trying hard to keep people calm as panic is an additional problem.
There's a bit of a gulf between keeping calm and making out it's a non-issue, nothing worse than a mild cold. Perhaps some of the people still insisting it's a nothing do so because they are scared to admit to themselves that it's going to be worse than they are comfortable with, kind of like when one has a dentist phobia and would rather suffer toothache and rotting teeth than visit a dentist.
Undoubtedly there are click-bait headlines but not all of them are, and by now we should be able to pick out the facts from the scaremongering. But we are also super-complacent and maybe suffering some form of 'boy who cried wolf' thing. We've had previous serious issues that should have got us pretty scared - from ebola and SARS to Trump precipitating a war, 9/11, 2008, etc - and they've all turned out more or less OK.
Can't speak for anyone else but when this one popped up I thought it would be a repeat of bird flu and barely register on my radar after the first couple of days of scary headlines. It wasn't that I didn't have empathy for the suffering Chinese but that there was nothing I could do for them and TPTB (whoever they are) would make sure it didn't get here. Now it is here and whilst the deniers are keen to point out that few will die that wouldn't have done otherwise, I'll bet they aren't in an at-risk group.
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Something just occurred to me to explain the perceived panic: it might not be the scary headlines but the celebrities. Things tend to be not real when they affect other people because we don't know them, but when a celebrity - many of whom we know intimately - gets KOd by something we realise it's actually there. Just need a couple of biggies to suffer complications and people will really panic.
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That's always been weird to me too, I don't feel like I know any celebrities intimately, I've never met most of them, I've never talked to them, I don't really grasp the connection so many seem to feel to them.
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That's always been weird to me too, I don't feel like I know any celebrities intimately, I've never met most of them, I've never talked to them, I don't really grasp the connection so many seem to feel to them.
For that, we have to leave the realm of rational engineering, and enter into the emotionally driven space.
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We are already there - it affects all of us to some degree. Imagine for a moment if our Dave succumbed: are you suggesting that since we are rational engineers it wouldn't affect us any more than seeing some random name in a newspaper article?
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We are already there - it affects all of us to some degree. Imagine for a moment if our Dave succumbed
Still here ;D
BTW, my logistics person Suse is not coming in any more until this blows over, so it's now just me.
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I rang the hospital today to arrange a couple of outpatient appointments and was told that both the cardiologist and vascular specialist would probably conduct these follow up sessions over the phone instead of an attendance at the hospital. The normal routine is to sit in a crowded waiting room for two to three hours alongside some very sick people which I don't enjoy one bit.
When they do finally call you up it's generally just a five minute chat and perhaps a prescription change so the phone call thing will be a big improvement. This also saves a trip to the hospital and the hassle of trying to find a carpark, in addition it eliminates the risk of catching a bug from other patients or putting the nursing staff and specialists at further risk of the Coronavirus.
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I don't want to get political but I'm very disappointed with my government. They gave up on testing, contact tracing and containment far too early. I appreciate testing might be expensive and they aren't prepared for it, but it will save money. For example, there are those like myself who are off work because they most likely have a mild common cold (a minor cough and no fever) who could be tested and go back to work. I'll probably have to take at least five days off work. I don't even have to bother doing the calculation to know the cost in hours lost, is greater than the price of a Covid-19 test, even at the rip-off prices charged by some private providers. At least those employed in critical sectors such as healthcare should be tested, at the first sign of the mildest symptoms, rather than being sent home and told to self-isolate! It's retarded!
Although I think it's highly unlikely, I hope I have Covid-19, because if it's just going to be a cough for me, I'd be happy to be immune to it and not pass it on. Assuming I don't have it, the only good think about self-isolation is I won't catch i, on top of this cough, which would have made it worse. Now my cough has improved significantly, but I believe I'll still need to continue self-isolation for a couple of days afterwards. Hopefully not. I'll discuss it with my employer tomorrow.
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I disagree. They're doing the best they can in a situation which is effectively a no win whatever containment measures we put in place. The containment measures will actually likely in the long run, according to the Imperial report, actually not improve the outcome significantly because the healthcare system is overwhelmed almost instantly. It might save thousands of lives which in numbers are statistically insignificant but that's worth it.
Not joking but I think I've had / have got this [1] and there is no test available for me as well. Saying that the key issue with testing is volume. It's not trivial to bring up whole labs to run tests so they have to test for critical cases first which are in hospitals i.e. people actually likely to end up in an ICU or are sick. They are ramping up test production as fast as possible. Key issue I understand is reagent supplies and skills. Being told to self-isolate is about reducing impact from the 80%+ of minor cases on people who it is a high risk for, nothing more. They don't have the capacity to test the entire planet. No one does. Simply because it has to be done multiple times.
My takings from this are:
1. Live your life early on, not the carrot of retirement.
2. Take your health seriously.
3. Prepare for the worst (bog roll and beans) and hope for the best (steak and chips :) )
The planet can off us as a species almost instantly if the situation arises and no national government has a plan that can cover all scenarios. Knowing how this year is going already it'll be raining asteroids by July.
[1] lost 4kg weight in last 8 days, had sweats, 40oC temp, really nasty cough, chest infection, feel like shit but am still working (from home). I am self isolating as are my family for ref.
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I agree with you about the the containment measures currently put in place, but don't think they go far enough. For example barbers shops are still open near where I live and people still seem to be crowding. We're better off completely locking down the country and suffering greater short-term stress and economic loss, in return for stopping this thing, which will ultimately save both lives and money in the long run. China have proven it's possible to stop this. It's not too late.
Covid-19 testing and contact tracing are recommended by the world health organisation, have been implemented by China and South Korea and has worked very well over there and Germany is currently doing the same, with some success, so our government not doing it makes no sense. I agree it probably makes less sense for those such as yourself who can work from home and me, who isn't employed by an industry essential to the country's infrastructure, but it's sensible to prioritise testing of healthcare workers at whatever cost.
Yes, I emphatically agree with points #1 to #3, except don't panic buy bog role and beans!
Hope you feel better soon, you really have got it and it's not too bad for you.
By they way, don't take anything to bring your temperature down. It's helping your body fight the disease and will most likely result in a poorer outcome, even if it makes you feel better, in the short term.
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I agree but unfortunately people are arseholes generally and don't give a shit past their own personal circumstances. They have to factor that into the calculations. I've seen packs of joggers going past this morning ffs. :palm:
Yes I haven't taken any medication at all other than chocolate biscuits :-DD. The immune response is to raise body temperature to destroy the virus so I've let it go. Just have to keep hydrated. Feeling better now apart from the chest but if it was that then I've had worse. Full blown chicken pox at the age of 28, for the second time, was much much much worse. Most people are asymptomatic. The kids have been around me past the incubation time and had a sniffy nose and that was it.
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I agree but unfortunately people are arseholes generally and don't give a shit past their own personal circumstances. They have to factor that into the calculations. I've seen packs of joggers going past this morning ffs. :palm:
I just read places in Italy have military on the streets and 5000€ fines for being more than two together or leaving
home with out a valid reason, that shouldn't be needed if people got the message. If that kind force is needed in a
place hit that hard I don't have big hopes for the rest of the world
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The planet can off us as a species almost instantly if the situation arises and no national government has a plan that can cover all scenarios. Knowing how this year is going already it'll be raining asteroids by July.
[1] lost 4kg weight in last 8 days, had sweats, 40oC temp, really nasty cough, chest infection, feel like shit but am still working (from home). I am self isolating as are my family for ref.
Yep. Yesterday in the morning capital of Croatia (Zagreb) had earthquake.... 5,5 Richter scale. It's been shaking since, 57 smaller tremors since.
Government issued no travel order.
Hope you get better soon and that your family is OK.
Sinisa
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By they way, don't take anything to bring your temperature down. It's helping your body fight the disease and will most likely result in a poorer outcome, even if it makes you feel better, in the short term.
Yes. Also, like with many other viral infections, anti-inflammatory drugs are a bad idea in general, as they can make things worse.
If your temperature gets too high to be safe, just call emergency.
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Covid-19 testing and contact tracing are recommended by the world health organisation, have been implemented by China and South Korea ...
Isn't it a numbers game? That is, you can do it if the numbers are low enough that you can achieve it, but once they get too high you can't possibly trace them all and then have to assume it's anyone. In China they isolated everyone so anyone that had it has had it by now, and anyone that isn't suffering doesn't have it. Now they can do contact tracing and make a difference because the numbers are manageable.
Don't know about Germany. If they are contact tracing how do we know it's working if their numbers are still going up?
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Here the government research institute that deals with infectious diseases and the likes is asking to
collect all location data from the phone companies to evaluate how well the "stay at home" works.
The phone are waiting for clarification of of the legality
I guess if they trace back the movements of those who are tested positive it could also help map the spread
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Here the government research institute that deals with infectious diseases and the likes is asking to
collect all location data from the phone companies to evaluate how well the "stay at home" works.
Why not. Although I guess if this is made public, people will know they are traced. And those not willing to really comply/or fearing they might get in trouble being traced could just leave their phones home and get out...
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Covid-19 testing and contact tracing are recommended by the world health organisation, have been implemented by China and South Korea ...
Isn't it a numbers game? That is, you can do it if the numbers are low enough that you can achieve it, but once they get too high you can't possibly trace them all and then have to assume it's anyone. In China they isolated everyone so anyone that had it has had it by now, and anyone that isn't suffering doesn't have it. Now they can do contact tracing and make a difference because the numbers are manageable.
Don't know about Germany. If they are contact tracing how do we know it's working if their numbers are still going up?
Yes, there's a limit to the numbers, but it has been proven to be helpful in other countries with a larger number of cases than the UK.
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Here the government research institute that deals with infectious diseases and the likes is asking to
collect all location data from the phone companies to evaluate how well the "stay at home" works.
Why not. Although I guess if this is made public, people will know they are traced. And those not willing to really comply/or fearing they might get in trouble being traced could just leave their phones home and get out...
Very few young people appear to be able to survive for more than a few milliseconds without their phone...
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I know seniors who are just as glued to their phone as kids. They are addictive devices, though useful. The difference with kids is that they never knew life without mobile phones.
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Here the government research institute that deals with infectious diseases and the likes is asking to
collect all location data from the phone companies to evaluate how well the "stay at home" works.
Why not. Although I guess if this is made public, people will know they are traced. And those not willing to really comply/or fearing they might get in trouble being traced could just leave their phones home and get out...
Very few young people appear to be able to survive for more than a few milliseconds without their phone...
Good point. Those that have been seen to comply the least so far tend to be young people, and unless they were really ill-intentioned and wanted to hide their movements, they are likely to have their phones at all times. You can't completely rule out ill-intentioned people though...
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We are already there - it affects all of us to some degree. Imagine for a moment if our Dave succumbed: are you suggesting that since we are rational engineers it wouldn't affect us any more than seeing some random name in a newspaper article?
Dave participates on the forum, I've interacted with him as have many others, if I had a good reason to contact him I could do that. There's a lot more connection there than most people have with typical celebrities, I mean Dave knows I exist at least, most ordinary people's relationships with celebrities are entirely one-way. So yeah if he died I'd be bummed and miss his presence here, however I don't think I'd mourn the same as if a family member or close personal friend had died. It's all relative.
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however I don't think I'd mourn the same as if a family member or close personal friend had died. It's all relative
:-DD Good one!
I guess you missed the mass grief that Princess Di provoked when she went on her way. It was pretty over the top, but it does show that people do feel a connection even if it's only one way. It is natural for us. Celebrities score high because, well, they're celebrities. How do you think they get to BE celebrities in the first place? Of course, one's susceptibility to this kind of thing ranges from ludicrous (and you'd probably be a stalker) to 0 (and you' probably be a psychopath). But in normal people it is there, and it's why things like 'breaking the ice' work. And cons and scams, of course.
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Here the government research institute that deals with infectious diseases and the likes is asking to
collect all location data from the phone companies to evaluate how well the "stay at home" works.
Why not. Although I guess if this is made public, people will know they are traced. And those not willing to really comply/or fearing they might get in trouble being traced could just leave their phones home and get out...
Very few young people appear to be able to survive for more than a few milliseconds without their phone...
Good point. Those that have been seen to comply the least so far tend to be young people, and unless they were really ill-intentioned and wanted to hide their movements, they are likely to have their phones at all times. You can't completely rule out ill-intentioned people though...
There will be some a-holes around, but they are likely to find out to their cost that people are not quite as stupid as they think...
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however I don't think I'd mourn the same as if a family member or close personal friend had died. It's all relative
:-DD Good one!
I guess you missed the mass grief that Princess Di provoked when she went on her way. It was pretty over the top, but it does show that people do feel a connection even if it's only one way. It is natural for us. Celebrities score high because, well, they're celebrities. How do you think they get to BE celebrities in the first place? Of course, one's susceptibility to this kind of thing ranges from ludicrous (and you'd probably be a stalker) to 0 (and you' probably be a psychopath). But in normal people it is there, and it's why things like 'breaking the ice' work. And cons and scams, of course.
No, I didn't miss it, though I was only a teenager at the time and remember thinking "who cares?" Why Americans seem so interested in the British royal family in general is a total mystery to me. I don't want any of them dead but I really don't give a rat's ass what they are up to on a day to day basis but it's all over the news any time one of them so much as farts.
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Very few young people appear to be able to survive for more than a few milliseconds without their phone...
We give devices which have been very carefully and deliberately devised to "retain attention" to children and they do exactly what's expected?
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Very few young people appear to be able to survive for more than a few milliseconds without their phone...
We give devices which have been very carefully and deliberately devised to "retain attention" to children and they do exactly what's expected?
Neither is true. We give them a device which gives them a social advantage and they use it, then we kick back and whine about it as if they don't have that social advantage while falling into irrelevance ourselves. Not joking but I'm staying at the bleeding edge with them and it has done me very well.
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We are already there - it affects all of us to some degree. Imagine for a moment if our Dave succumbed: are you suggesting that since we are rational engineers it wouldn't affect us any more than seeing some random name in a newspaper article?
Dave participates on the forum, I've interacted with him as have many others, if I had a good reason to contact him I could do that. There's a lot more connection there than most people have with typical celebrities, I mean Dave knows I exist at least, most ordinary people's relationships with celebrities are entirely one-way. So yeah if he died I'd be bummed and miss his presence here, however I don't think I'd mourn the same as if a family member or close personal friend had died. It's all relative.
*cough* *cough*
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*cough* *cough*
As long as gnif keeps the forum's wheels spinning I'm good.
...
...
Kidding, kidding, I'm just kidding ;D
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*cough* *cough*
As long as gnif keeps the forum's wheels spinning I'm good.
He has the keys to the server kingdom.
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Neither is true. We give them a device which gives them a social advantage and they use it, then we kick back and whine about it as if they don't have that social advantage while falling into irrelevance ourselves. Not joking but I'm staying at the bleeding edge with them and it has done me very well.
I don't think there is much question about the addictive nature of smartphones they have by design. We should be mindful to balance advantages against the risks. They can be useful tools but now we're past the initial infatuation we'll need to figure out how to blunt the edge they seem to come with.
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I don't think we're addicted to the smartphones as such. We're addicted to communication as a species and they enable that.
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Pfff, I had to get a webcam for video conferencing but it seems they are low in stock at many shops.
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Yep all gone here as well.
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Electronics shops are closed here. Some supermarkets normally sell webcams but, being non-essential item, I don't know if they'll sell them, even if they have stock.
Looking online is the obvious solution, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're difficult to get now.
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I don't think we're addicted to the smartphones as such. We're addicted to communication as a species and they enable that.
Yeah. A lot of empty communication though, with limited interaction. We're "addicted" to feeling part of society/a community, certainly and I think this is more what it's all about. Communication is one enabler for that, but as I said, I think it's become a lot emptier when using those tools. Ultimately, I don't think we're really that interested in communication itself (as in, sharing and discussing thoughts and information), but we just don't want to feel alone, something smartphones help us achieving (even when it's relatively virtual.)
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And yet there are those that claim that there aren't any Tech jobs available. This pandemic is already creating numerous opportunities for anyone with any skills.
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Looking online is the obvious solution, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're difficult to get now.
You can find some on Amazon but stocks are very low.
Whether we can consider webcams essential is debatable. Whereas anything helping people work and keep in touch in times of confinement should be considered essential IMO, you can do that with voice only. And for deaf people, via online chats/instant messaging...
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And yet there are those that claim that there aren't any Tech jobs available. This pandemic is already creating numerous opportunities for anyone with any skills.
They are out there, but they are hard to find. It's the uncertainty that is paralyzing everything, we are busy but my company has implemented a hiring freeze, the last thing we want to do is onboard a bunch of people and then lay them off in a few months when everything comes crashing down.
At this point I'm not sure why companies all over aren't rushing to mass produce medical equipment and supplies, quite a few companies could be repurposed for the duration, we will need people to man every stage of the supply chain.
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And yet there are those that claim that there aren't any Tech jobs available. This pandemic is already creating numerous opportunities for anyone with any skills.
They are out there, but they are hard to find. It's the uncertainty that is paralyzing everything, we are busy but my company has implemented a hiring freeze, the last thing we want to do is onboard a bunch of people and then lay them off in a few months when everything comes crashing down.
At this point I'm not sure why companies all over aren't rushing to mass produce medical equipment and supplies, quite a few companies could be repurposed for the duration, we will need people to man every stage of the supply chain.
you don't just make medical things, there is tons of red tape involved, for good reasons
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[
you don't just make medical things, there is tons of red tape involved, for good reasons
Really? My step father was an orthapedic surgeon and he had many instruments the he designed and that were custom built for him. A good number of them are now standard instruments in that field including the bone drill that is used to drill holes in bones so that pins can be installed. A friend of mine is a dammed good mechanical engineer and owns his own small machine shop and he's built dozens of specialty devices for various doctors and hospitals.
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[
you don't just make medical things, there is tons of red tape involved, for good reasons
Really? My step father was an orthapedic surgeon and he had many instruments the he designed and that were custom built for him. A good number of them are now standard instruments in that field including the bone drill that is used to drill holes in bones so that pins can be installed. A friend of mine is a dammed good mechanical engineer and owns his own small machine shop and he's built dozens of specialty devices for various doctors and hospitals.
you can also makes an electronic DoThat, for evalution only use in a lab, not for sale, etc.
but if you intend to sell it as a product you will need do all the compliance testing and get all the approvals
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you don't just make medical things, there is tons of red tape involved, for good reasons
Really? My step father was an orthapedic surgeon and he had many instruments the he designed and that were custom built for him. A good number of them are now standard instruments in that field including the bone drill that is used to drill holes in bones so that pins can be installed. A friend of mine is a dammed good mechanical engineer and owns his own small machine shop and he's built dozens of specialty devices for various doctors and hospitals.
That's why they call orthapedic surgeons, carpenters ;D
But yes, probably nothing wrong with having a tool commissioned for you, but selling that tool to others is a whole other world.
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But red tape can be either cut or ignored when the situation is sufficiently dire and the choice is between uncertified equipment or letting people die.
For instance: https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2020/03/19/talking-with-the-italian-engineers-who-3d-printed-respirator-parts-for-hospitals-with-coronavirus-patients-for-free/#2698329978f1 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2020/03/19/talking-with-the-italian-engineers-who-3d-printed-respirator-parts-for-hospitals-with-coronavirus-patients-for-free/#2698329978f1)
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But red tape can be either cut or ignored when the situation is sufficiently dire and the choice is between uncertified equipment or letting people die.
For instance: https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2020/03/19/talking-with-the-italian-engineers-who-3d-printed-respirator-parts-for-hospitals-with-coronavirus-patients-for-free/#2698329978f1 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2020/03/19/talking-with-the-italian-engineers-who-3d-printed-respirator-parts-for-hospitals-with-coronavirus-patients-for-free/#2698329978f1)
Yes, but that is rare. Try do it at any other time, you can't. The current situation is almost unprecedented.
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But red tape can be either cut or ignored when the situation is sufficiently dire and the choice is between uncertified equipment or letting people die.
For instance: https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2020/03/19/talking-with-the-italian-engineers-who-3d-printed-respirator-parts-for-hospitals-with-coronavirus-patients-for-free/#2698329978f1 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2020/03/19/talking-with-the-italian-engineers-who-3d-printed-respirator-parts-for-hospitals-with-coronavirus-patients-for-free/#2698329978f1)
That is my thought exactly, in an emergency when the alternative is many people dying it's acceptable to cut corners.
During WWII we designed new aircraft, put them into service and started mass production in all sorts of factories in an insanely short period of time. Often while the design was still being polished and without any of the red tape and certification processes that would normally be required to build an aircraft. All of that legal stuff can be short circuited, you don't just let a bunch of people die over bureaucratic nonsense. You do it properly when you've got the luxury to do so, but if this virus pandemic is as dire as people say it is then we don't have that luxury, just build stuff, make it as cheap, simple and easy to build as possible and build a whole bunch of them. When we're done with them and replace them with properly built, tested and certified medical equipment they can be scrapped or donated to the third world.
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Case in point: the Swedish Work Environment Authority threatens to sue a 3D printing company for donating face shields:
https://twitter.com/erikcederb/status/1242467321555202048
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I read about this first on Hackaday.
https://e-vent.mit.edu/
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But red tape can be either cut or ignored when the situation is sufficiently dire and the choice is between uncertified equipment or letting people die.
For instance: https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2020/03/19/talking-with-the-italian-engineers-who-3d-printed-respirator-parts-for-hospitals-with-coronavirus-patients-for-free/#2698329978f1 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/amyfeldman/2020/03/19/talking-with-the-italian-engineers-who-3d-printed-respirator-parts-for-hospitals-with-coronavirus-patients-for-free/#2698329978f1)
That is my thought exactly, in an emergency when the alternative is many people dying it's acceptable to cut corners.
During WWII we designed new aircraft, put them into service and started mass production in all sorts of factories in an insanely short period of time. Often while the design was still being polished and without any of the red tape and certification processes that would normally be required to build an aircraft. All of that legal stuff can be short circuited, you don't just let a bunch of people die over bureaucratic nonsense. You do it properly when you've got the luxury to do so, but if this virus pandemic is as dire as people say it is then we don't have that luxury, just build stuff, make it as cheap, simple and easy to build as possible and build a whole bunch of them. When we're done with them and replace them with properly built, tested and certified medical equipment they can be scrapped or donated to the third world.
Not defending the "legal" and bureaucractic process in any way, but would you buy a N95 or a ventilator from Banggood or Aliexpress? Certainly the cut corners criteria would be met.
Sure, a N95 mask is a passive piece of gear, but when there's talk about car manufacturers making ventilators the game is changed. This becomes especially worse if the shortcut is somewhat deliberate due to the lack of proper or tested materials - a gear that has weaker material and can't withstand a 24hr operation, or a lubricant that has toxic components on it, etc.
For us engineers that understand the limitations of design and materials, that is more or less second nature. The issue is when all this is settled and the news organizations get wind of some of these decisions and blow or distort all this to the general public with the consequential outcry and ensuing lawsuits. By this logic, a company would be better off to "donate to the third world" instead, since their ability to sue the company is virtually zero. :palm:
The manufacturers and general population just have to live with the reality that a fraction of people will die of equipment failure. Not many will live with that.
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[
you don't just make medical things, there is tons of red tape involved, for good reasons
Really? My step father was an orthapedic surgeon and he had many instruments the he designed and that were custom built for him. A good number of them are now standard instruments in that field including the bone drill that is used to drill holes in bones so that pins can be installed. A friend of mine is a dammed good mechanical engineer and owns his own small machine shop and he's built dozens of specialty devices for various doctors and hospitals.
Please don't share any more info about him, as he might get in trouble and the doctors implied as well.
::)
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Not defending the "legal" and bureaucractic process in any way, but would you buy a N95 or a ventilator from Banggood or Aliexpress? Certainly the cut corners criteria would be met.
If the choice was between that and dying? Absolutely, it would be better than nothing. I mean I was reading that some hospitals are fabricating gowns out of trash bags and cutting face shields out of soda bottles, people are improvising and doing what they need to do in order to get by.
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Case in point: the Swedish Work Environment Authority threatens to sue a 3D printing company for donating face shields:
https://twitter.com/erikcederb/status/1242467321555202048
Read the rest of the article. They have since backed off of that threat. Also a doctor in Spain has been using 3D printed face shields for weeks and he's very thankful that people are making them and donating them to the hospitals.
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[
you don't just make medical things, there is tons of red tape involved, for good reasons
Really? My step father was an orthapedic surgeon and he had many instruments the he designed and that were custom built for him. A good number of them are now standard instruments in that field including the bone drill that is used to drill holes in bones so that pins can be installed. A friend of mine is a dammed good mechanical engineer and owns his own small machine shop and he's built dozens of specialty devices for various doctors and hospitals.
Please don't share any more info about him, as he might get in trouble and the doctors implied as well.
::)
Stop throwing out bull shit to defend your position. He was one of the top surgeons in the US and has an outstanding reputation. He's also one of the people that hospitals, other doctors and medical associations come to for expert advice. He is a graduate of the US Naval Academy and had his medical training at Georgetown University, one of the top medical schools in this county and he was in the top 1% of all of the gradates in the US. He interned at Bethesda Naval Hospital near the end of WW-II treating soldiers and sailors that had been wounded during the war and has treated everything kind of injury and wound imaginable. He was one of the first to use steel pins for splinting bones and that's where he came up with the idea of a bone drill. Maybe not in the EU, but here in the US doctors routinely choose their own instruments just as a fine woodworker or you electronic geeks would. They also have instruments modified to suit their taste. As long as the doctors are successful in their pursuits, no one asks who made their tools.
BTW during my brief hospital career I repaired all kinds of medical equipment and even modified some of it and no one other than my immediate boss was looking over my shoulder and no approvals were necessary. The hospital that I was in made a small but significant improvement in neonatal respirators after they noticed that infants that used one particular respirator had better results than infants on any of the other respirators. They tore it down and found that one valve wasn't opening fully and it maintained a slight amount of positive air pressure. They modified the other respirators to do the same and found that all of them gave a better survival rate. Since then that modification has become standard in all neonatal respirators. That's how progress is made, not by waiting for a bunch of EU type regulators to approve things that they know nothing about.
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interesting using a 3D printer. Only I don't get how something made of hard plastic will work. A frame for the cloth or N95 material?
I DO like the creativity!
For my part, I have started going around my building wiping down door handles, rails, and other surface our tenants would typically touch. I am using a dilute Bleach mixture. It is mostly to reassure everyone in the building. It may be lame, however, tenants do feel reassured and that what counts...uh, beside all the recommended steps and hygiene.
I am seriously curious how the masks are being created.I my mind, I imagine some huge space helmet. :P ;D
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I've worked from home for a while and avoided crowds most my life so this makes very little impact to my schedule, aside from making more efficient grocery store trips and wasting less money at restaurants.
My wife just started working from home and it is quite entertaining listening to her interrogate people over the phone.
My neighbor is also off work (again) and has been working on his truck outside all week. His favorite tool is the angle grinder and he somehow manages to find hours upon hours of work to do with it.
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They are still beating around the bush at my company, but from what I'm gathering what will happen is whoever is on 8h shift will get to work from home, and whoever is on 12h shift will still need to go to the office. They insist that the office needs 24/7 coverage, which is BS really. It is true that this would be the first time in history that this building has had nobody in it, but really, it's not that critical that someone is there. We monitor over 1000 buildings and most of them are unmanned.
So really we'll still be getting exposed as due to scheduling it can't just be only 2 people that do the day/night rotation as it just does not logically work out, so it will be all of us on rotation basically, as normal scheduling goes. To make matters worse our schedule can be sporadic, you can work 1 8h, 2 12h's, 1 8h, be off for a day, go back on 12hs etc... that will mean dragging equipment back and forth a lot.
But at the end of the day, I'm just happy I work in something considered essential so at least I still HAVE a job, and I'm getting paid. Sad to see so many companies using this as an opportunity to do mass layoffs. Lot of people are going to be jobless after all this is done.
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But at the end of the day, I'm just happy I work in something considered essential so at least I still HAVE a job, and I'm getting paid. Sad to see so many companies using this as an opportunity to do mass layoffs. Lot of people are going to be jobless after all this is done.
Unfortunately that's the reality of business. Majority of businesses do not operate with much cash reserve. So a shutdown of weeks or a month or two could ruin them. They often have no choice but to cut staff in order for the company to survive longer. The business equivalent of "flattening the curve".
For my company it's now kinda fortuitous that David decided to leave last December, as my cash burn rate is now much lower. I probably wouldn't have had to let him go because of this, but he was my biggest company expense and I'm now glad I have less expenses. Particularly as I've now been stuck paying rent on my 100sqm place just for me and my old lab isn't being rented out and I'm paying the outgoings on that. I'm fairly lucky (so far) in that advertisers have decided to stay and people are still buying products, but that could change.
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Stop throwing out bull shit to defend your position.
Chill out.
That's how progress is made, not by waiting for a bunch of EU type regulators to approve things that they know nothing about.
Go start a medical devices company and let us know how you get on avoiding all the red tape.
Just because you might be able to get away with it in a small area of the industry does not extend to industry as a whole.
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But at the end of the day, I'm just happy I work in something considered essential so at least I still HAVE a job, and I'm getting paid. Sad to see so many companies using this as an opportunity to do mass layoffs. Lot of people are going to be jobless after all this is done.
Unfortunately that's the reality of business. Majority of businesses do not operate with much cash reserve. So a shutdown of weeks or a month or two could ruin them. They often have no choice but to cut staff in order for the company to survive longer. The business equivalent of "flattening the curve".
For my company it's now kinda fortuitous that David decided to leave last December, as my cash burn rate is now much lower. I probably wouldn't have had to let him go because of this, but he was my biggest company expense and I'm now glad I have less expenses. Particularly as I've now been stuck paying rent on my 100sqm place just for me and my old lab isn't being rented out and I'm paying the outgoings on that. I'm fairly lucky (so far) in that advertisers have decided to stay and people are still buying products, but that could change.
here the government will pay a substantial part of salaries and also some fixed expenses for businesses
have been forced to stay closed, in return hoping they will try their best to keep people.
They can of course not keep doing that forever and we all know we'll be paying the bill later, but it might
soften the blow
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The hospital that I was in made a small but significant improvement in neonatal respirators after they noticed that infants that used one particular respirator had better results than infants on any of the other respirators. They tore it down and found that one valve wasn't opening fully and it maintained a slight amount of positive air pressure. They modified the other respirators to do the same and found that all of them gave a better survival rate. Since then that modification has become standard in all neonatal respirators. That's how progress is made, not by waiting for a bunch of EU type regulators to approve things that they know nothing about.
And how long ago was this? Nowadays doctors work based on fixed procedures and tools. Very very few have any wiggle room to be 'creative'. Creativity can also lead to more deaths. Do you want your doctor to experiment on you with an unproven method / tool?
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[...] They modified the other respirators to do the same [accidentally discovered improvement] and found that all of them gave a better survival rate. Since then that modification has become standard in all neonatal respirators. That's how progress is made, not by waiting for a bunch of EU type regulators to approve things that they know nothing about.
A lot of progress has been made fortuitously/accidentally... and that will continue. But you shouldn't dismiss the power of regulation, for example regulation has improved emissions of cars dramatically over the decades. It is also wrong to assume that regulators don't know what they are doing - often regulators are senior people from the industry involved, or they draw on industry resources.
For every question, there is an answer that is simple, intuitive, and... wrong. Keep a lookout for those, and you'll do OK!
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Regulation in itself is neither good nor bad. Some regulation is needed, some regulation is better thought out and more effective than other regulation. It's certainly possible to have too much of a good thing and there are certainly examples of people trying to regulate things they know very little about.
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And how long ago was this? Nowadays doctors work based on fixed procedures and tools. Very very few have any wiggle room to be 'creative'. Creativity can also lead to more deaths. Do you want your doctor to experiment on you with an unproven method / tool?
New procedures are developed but generally in conjunction with researchers who see the bigger picture and they're often performed on patients who have exhausted more conventional options or to whom those options don't neatly apply.
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I've been working at home for around a week. Things are getting figured out. Equipment is mostly set up to support the work. Video meeting etiquette and protocol are falling into place. Networking issues are resolved. I'm probably at 90% capability when working remotely. The remaining 10% can be scheduled for later.
Jira is still more of a hindrance than a help.
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Well, I was also already set up at home. But bummer, today morning a call, that there is no work for us, home office cancelled to all. Staying at home with 60% salary. (That is actually a thing based on law available in our country. The employer then may ask the state for the money. We have quite a generous social system).
Not really thrilled by this, but at least, more time for my personal projects. As long, as the supply chain will not fall apart. Usually I have quite special components on order and need PCBs manufactured.
Hopefully shit will not hit the fan round here thaaat bad. :o
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So we are finally all setup to work from home now. They want someone in the office 24/7 though so based on shifts we have someone there. One 12h day/night person stays at office with everyone at home. Downside of this is having to drag PC back and forth from home to work when you switch to a different shift. To save myself a bit of trouble I bought myself 2 28" 4k monitors. Been wanting to upgrade to 4k at home anyway... so it was an excuse to do so. That way my 3 work 4ks stay at work, and at home I can manage with only 2, since the 12h shift guy will open everything while at home we only really need to open what we watch as we divide the tasks. Normally at work we just all open everything anyway but we compromise now working at home. Some people brought one of their work 4ks and will just use 2 at work, some brought everything. Everyone kind of did what they felt was best. I'm the one with no kids that can afford to just go and buy 2 4k monitors. Freaking millennials right? :P
Only worked 2 at home shifts so far since I was working from the office for a bit, but I have to say this is pretty awesome. I wish it became the norm tbh. Not the pandemic :P Just working from home.
I also took the opportunity to redo my cabling setup at home. This is what my setup looks like now:
(http://gal.redsquirrel.me/thumbs/lrg-4901-DSC_2052__1_.jpg) (http://gal.redsquirrel.me/images/other/random/DSC_2052 (1).jpg)
Centre monitor is just a 1K and acts as the primary for work, home and gaming machine so I can use KVM, and right now the two vertical ones are my new 4ks which are dedicated to work.
I could not get 4k out of the work PC if I use display port to HDMI which I need for the KVM so that's why I went that way. Kinda works out anyway since all the stuff that's important is always up while I can be watching YT videos or chatting on forums etc on the middle one.
The other side monitor was originally going to be for just putting on a news stream or whatever but I never realized how slow the Raspberry PI (even 3) is for actual normal usage as a desktop and it will barely do anything. I have a 4 that was originally going to be to replace the one hooked up to my TV but I might keep it for up here instead. Will have a separate mouse so I can be KVMed to the work PC the majority of time and do my browsing or show watching on that one. Still ironing out a few things to make quality of life better but overall it's working out. Really loving working from home.
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I absolutely love working from home, though I prefer to still have an office to go to some of the time. Personally I find that going in 2 days a week is just about perfect, gives me the face to face time with my coworkers and time to have meetings and such, then I get most of my actual work done on the days I'm at home.
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Last week I called the service desk from the postal service. I heard someone having lunch in the background so I asked the lady whether she was working from home and it turned out she did. I also had my first 'friday afternoon drinks' through video conferencing and my very first Skype call ever. Still need to buy a better headset though.
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I don't think staying at home is helping to flatten the curve, in fact I think I've put on a kilo. ::)
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;D
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Mrs EEVblog remarked today that she now talks more regularly with her office co-workers from home than when she was in the office.
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FYI to Chromers: :D
forget the so passe gasolene/petrol bag thing, just go store hopping instead,
free awesome stone/s from all the alco based cleaning fumes,
put some on your hands too, cover the face and go for it :o
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Mrs EEVblog remarked today that she now talks more regularly with her office co-workers from home than when she was in the office.
I can confirm the same. Also idiots who don’t do anything other than talk a lot have nowhere to hide now.
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Mrs EEVblog remarked today that she now talks more regularly with her office co-workers from home than when she was in the office.
we should practice physical distancing not social distancing or we'll all go crazy
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Mrs EEVblog remarked today that she now talks more regularly with her office co-workers from home than when she was in the office.
we should practice physical distancing not social distancing or we'll all go crazy
You need to get in touch with your inner hermit. Normally when we go outside there is a gentle murmuring in the background from a highway that is about a kilometre away. Now when we go outside its so peaceful. Enjoy the solitude.
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Completely agree with that on all points.
The irony being that some of the best places to find proper solitude and safety here will probably get you sent home or fined at the moment. I was considering doing some illegal camping here during the lockdown if I'm honest. I can quite happily lurch around and never be within 100m of another human.
What could be better than spending a night out here? (This is The Ridgeway near Wendover)
(https://imgur.com/GN9m9h3.jpg)
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FYI to Chromers: :D
forget the so passe gasolene/petrol bag thing, just go store hopping instead,
free awesome stone/s from all the alco based cleaning fumes,
put some on your hands too, cover the face and go for it :o
A-ha!
I've always been wondering what substance are you constantly on.
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The irony being that some of the best places to find proper solitude and safety here will probably get you sent home or fined at the moment. I was considering doing some illegal camping here during the lockdown if I'm honest. I can quite happily lurch around and never be within 100m of another human.
If you camp somewhere, doesn't that become your home and make the police unable to move you on right now? :)
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The irony being that some of the best places to find proper solitude and safety here will probably get you sent home or fined at the moment. I was considering doing some illegal camping here during the lockdown if I'm honest. I can quite happily lurch around and never be within 100m of another human.
If you camp somewhere, doesn't that become your home and make the police unable to move you on right now? :)
Good question.
Been looking for an excuse to buy a ghillie suit for a few years as well. Can't move you on if they can't see you :-DD
(https://imgur.com/IMGxW6c.jpg)
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Someone in our company set up a rogue Jitsi server. Works surprisingly well for casual chat and collaboration, too.
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Been looking for an excuse to buy a ghillie suit for a few years as well. Can't move you on if they can't see you :-DD
(https://imgur.com/IMGxW6c.jpg)
Chewie's sister!
You need to get in touch with your inner hermit. Normally when we go outside there is a gentle murmuring in the background from a highway that is about a kilometre away. Now when we go outside its so peaceful. Enjoy the solitude.
Unfortunately highway nearby me seems to be used as a racetrack by motor cyclists. Not happy with the noise.
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You need to get in touch with your inner hermit. Normally when we go outside there is a gentle murmuring in the background from a highway that is about a kilometre away.
Now when we go outside its so peaceful. Enjoy the solitude.
Unfortunately highway nearby me seems to be used as a racetrack by motor cyclists. Not happy with the noise.
Easy fix >:D
spread rumors that police are on the lookout for highway motorbike jackers suspected of being infected with 'C' hiding in ditches,
tossing large tree branches at speeding oncoming bikes,
stealing the bikes to sell whole or for parts,
dumping the unconscious, trashed, or killed riders in the ditch,
move on down the road a bit, and wait for the next one..
Enjoy the solitude,
and you're welcome :D
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No need. According to the news Darwin had a good day without my help. Serves them right. Should have stayed home!
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FYI to Chromers: :D
forget the so passe gasolene/petrol bag thing, just go store hopping instead,
free awesome stone/s from all the alco based cleaning fumes,
put some on your hands too, cover the face and go for it :o
A-ha!
I've always been wondering what substance are you constantly on.
Too fast on the draw :o you beat blueskull to it :clap:
bs is probably busy at another thread, and hopefully not afflicted yet with any 'C' symptoms like the sniffles, red eye, headaches,
or tummy rumbles similar to suss street food effects :scared:
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I looked for a new webcam and they're scooped up, sold out at stores. The decent resolution chinese ones are super expensive for some time now, over $100, with few vendors. Only the crap 640x480 1MP are low cost (why even bother), and they have "50M" or "12MP" fake claims galore.
I notice Digi-Key has been getting cleaned out of some jellybean parts, I suspect someone is stockpiling for the upcoming component shortages. The supply chain is surprisingly weak when you dig into it.
Trump want's no masks sold to Canada yet we supply the paper for them. A lone Canadian pulp mill making medical grade-paper for masks and disposable gowns, they supply the USA and Canada, having the Western Cedar trees. So imagine the supply chain desruption if the pulp mill can't buy masks for their staff to keep making masks :palm:
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A few layers of toilet paper, masking tape, rubber bands, and a few minutes of R+D sizing and testing in the cafeteria,
the staff at the pulp mill can keep working :clap:
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Someone in our company set up a rogue Jitsi server. Works surprisingly well for casual chat and collaboration, too.
Been meaning to play with that and try to maybe convince people to start using it instead of the commercial ones. I hate that everyone is obsessed with Zoom. I don't even want to install that crap on any of my machines, there are too many security and privacy concerns.
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A few layers of toilet paper, masking tape, rubber bands, and a few minutes of R+D sizing and testing in the cafeteria,
the staff at the pulp mill can keep working :clap:
That's old school - the 3D printer crowd is full of mask and ventilator designs, just need the N95 fabric: https://grabcad.com/library (https://grabcad.com/library)
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Good point, accessing toilet paper nowadays can only be from cold dead hands, after the smoke clears :scared:
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Is toilet paper still hard to come by? I haven't bought any since the bulk pack from Costco that I got back in January, I think we have about a month or so remaining depending on usage. I've been under the assumption that by the time I need some I'd be able to stroll in and buy some.
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You have to be a serial dunny paper hoarder to get the stuff here, shelves still always empty |O
not sure what their technique is, or who tips them off, and the hours they are up and about (= no lifers)
and don't care to find out, for now..
otherwise there may some strong words of disgust they won't like from me and co.
and whatever may come next to complement those words, and any bs resentments >:(
The exception is unless you get lucky and stumble upon a late delivery of loo paper at a store or petrol station,
and happen to fill up and walk in and score 'one slab per customer' :clap: before the C freaked parasitic trash in human form rock up to clean the place out,
with low life scum family members going in separately and grabbing a slab of loo paper each
Seriously these assh0les should be photographed and put on an undesirables list for future reference = NO TRUST mofos in sharing and helping in shtf situations
It would not surprise me if they betray, kill and devour themselves once they've done over everyone else.
I would not have believed such a large percentage/ratio of the population were that far gone upstairs
and so-o-o EASY to manipulate
in 2020 :palm:
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I looked for a new webcam and they're scooped up, sold out at stores. The decent resolution chinese ones are super expensive for some time now, over $100, with few vendors. Only the crap 640x480 1MP are low cost (why even bother), and they have "50M" or "12MP" fake claims galore.
I managed to buy a Logitech webcam recently. Price is around $120 but the image quality is very good.
Everyone working from home can get comfortable and buy better furniture & equipment (maybe ask your employer). A group of Dutch experts on pandemics expect the restrictions (lockdown) will need to be in effect for 1 year and maybe even over 2 years (worst case).
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I looked for a new webcam and they're scooped up, sold out at stores. The decent resolution chinese ones are super expensive for some time now, over $100, with few vendors. Only the crap 640x480 1MP are low cost (why even bother), and they have "50M" or "12MP" fake claims galore.
I managed to buy a Logitech webcam recently. Price is around $120 but the image quality is very good.
Everyone working from home can get comfortable and buy better furniture & equipment (maybe ask your employer). A group of Dutch experts on pandemics expect the restrictions (lockdown) will need to be in effect for 1 year and maybe even over 2 years (worst case).
I think the Danish prime-minister went as far as admitting that things would not be back to normal without a vaccine
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Is toilet paper still hard to come by? I haven't bought any since the bulk pack from Costco that I got back in January, I think we have about a month or so remaining depending on usage. I've been under the assumption that by the time I need some I'd be able to stroll in and buy some.
The Costco nearest me in southern California had all the paper products in stock last Wednesday, to my personal knowledge. Limit 1 package of each per customer. They had a sign out front listing the hoard items that they did/didn't have in stock. If you're a senior (60+, I'm 62) they've got a seniors only shopping from 8-9am on Tue/Wed/Thur and will be ahead of the crowd. Even that line was fairly long (spacing people 6 feet apart with carts) by the time they opened, but by showing up at 7:30 I was able to be in the first group of 50 they allowed in the store. Most had masks and gloves of some kind, including me. There was also a line of under-60's starting to form for 9am, so I suspect just strolling may not be so easy, even if the product is there.
Plenty of stock in most things, although typically only one brand choice for popular items. The only thing I really noticed was missing on my list were the pasta products. Kraft mac&cheese was the only pasta in stock. I will live without spaghetti. Need to go back on Thursday to visit the Pharmacy, so will get another look then.
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UK's Boris Johnson who only 3 weeks back was still shaking hands, now joins the remote access crowd from the ....ICU.
Be careful what you wish for.
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Is toilet paper still hard to come by? I haven't bought any since the bulk pack from Costco that I got back in January, I think we have about a month or so remaining depending on usage. I've been under the assumption that by the time I need some I'd be able to stroll in and buy some.
Not too hard to find around here. I went into a local grocery store 13 days ago and they had some so I grabbed another large bundle with 24 rolls. I haven't been back to a store since then so I don't know how available it is now but I think the TP panic is over.
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Still sort of rare around here. But it isn't really all that wondrous. People stay at home mostly instead of taking a dump at work.
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Still sort of rare around here. But it isn't really all that wondrous. People stay at home mostly instead of taking a dump at work.
No such luck around here. You can go to all the supermarkets and fire a chain gun down the paper products and you won't hit anyone or anything. |O
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Still sort of rare around here. But it isn't really all that wondrous. People stay at home mostly instead of taking a dump at work.
No such luck around here. You can go to all the supermarkets and fire a chain gun down the paper products and you won't hit anyone or anything. |O
Yes, what I meant is that _obviously_ the domestic consumption of toilet paper is higher now that people are mostly shitting at home instead of at work.
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Seeing as i work from home I’m still being paid to shit still so I’m happy. Just take longer now to offset the cost of the toilet paper. :-DD
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Shit post deleted. I can restore it, if anyone really wants to know.
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That is what they call an 'over share'.
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I don't know, [...]
TMI :palm:
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Normal talk here. :-DD
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That is what they call an 'over share'.
You're right. It was a shitty post, do I deleted it. I must be showing the signs of social isolation posting crap like that. :palm:
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I think we're all entitled to go a little bit insane at the moment. Just stay away from David Icke :-DD
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Advanced the pharmacy trip to Costco to today, since neighbor stopped by and begged for a ride to/from there (her car is broken). Went during normal hours, line was only about 10 minutes long to get in. The fact it was raining might have been a factor in that. Still flow-control into the store, so wasn't crowded and no lines at checkout. All the paper products were still in stock, but still no spaghetti. They did have the Kirkland 3-pack of orange juice back in stock -- it was missing the previous week.
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Interesting. All our pasta is still gone as well (other than wholemeal linguine so I'm happy as I actually like that). It's all actually made in Italy here (not sure about the US) so I'm wondering if there are supply problems due to lockdown there rather than hoarders.
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I haven't been out to the grocery in over a week, but the last last two trips pasta was pretty well depleted. I figure people buy it up because it keeps pretty well. No bread to be seen either. I ended up buying a bunch of flour tortillas. Been eating burritos for days... hotdog burritos, peanut butter burritos, etc.
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Interesting. All our pasta is still gone as well (other than wholemeal linguine so I'm happy as I actually like that). It's all actually made in Italy here (not sure about the US) so I'm wondering if there are supply problems due to lockdown there rather than hoarders.
The last time that I went to the store was a week ago but pasta was in stock here then but not a lot of it. I bought two boxes of the Barilla (made in Italy) pasta. Oddly there wasn't a lot of choices for the sauces, most of the varieties were sold out but there were plenty of the less popular choices. Hoarding is pretty common around here, it happens every time that a hurricane comes near but this is the first time that I've seen a run on TP or pasta.
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Still sort of rare around here. But it isn't really all that wondrous. People stay at home mostly instead of taking a dump at work.
No such luck around here. You can go to all the supermarkets and fire a chain gun down the paper products and you won't hit anyone or anything. |O
Yes, what I meant is that _obviously_ the domestic consumption of toilet paper is higher now that people are mostly shitting at home instead of at work.
Our building still has plenty of dunny rolls every day. Although someone has been nicking them and breaking the locks on the holders because they have signs up on the door about it now. But I've never seen the ones on my floor empty.
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I’ve just heard rumours that one of my work colleagues had a party at his apartment over the weekend and posted photos of the event on Instagram.
Now, what the guy does on his time off would normally be none of my concern, but he sits at a desk less than 3 meters from mine for 6-8 hours of the day. He’s in his mid-twenties and has worked with us for a few years. He originally started with us as backpacker from England and has now managed to get our employer to sponsor his permanent skilled worker visa to Australia.
There has been a cluster of Coronavirus cases amongst backpackers in the eastern suburbs of Sydney which is where he lives, and other backpackers are also likely to be in his circle of friends.
Over the last few weeks, I have been staying at home as much as possible to try and reduce my exposure to other people as per the government regulations. My 17 year old daughter is off school and is also required to stay home and not have visitors, not easy for a social girl of her age. I now feel that all that effort could be wasted if I need to be around this guy for my job.
I’m feeling very uncomfortable now about having to be in such close proximity for long periods of the day to someone who it seems is obviously flouting the social distancing rules we are supposed to be observing. An elderly co-worker said he has already brought up the issue with the boss and was told there was nothing the company can do.
I only learnt of all this late this afternoon and the boss was not around. I normally don’t like to make any waves but I feel I need to bring this up with the boss in the morning. I’m expecting to be told I’m overreacting and there is nothing that can be done. I would be interested to hear how others would handle the situation.
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Well, still not grasping what's going on?
fear, fear, fear, nothing happens.
Are you still on noodles and toilet paper?
No WHO? No NWO? No Event 201?
man, man, ridiculous, right?
:-DD
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I would be interested to hear how others would handle the situation.
Gearing yourself up with a mask and gloves should be enough to alert others that you have concerns. The other day I told a friend to fuck off after he randomly turned up for a coffee, unfortunately some people still don't get the message even after they have been told.
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To be fair that's normal operating procedure prior to pandemic conditions in my world. Unexpected visitors are never welcome.
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I only have one rule and that is don't turn up unannounced, and during a pandemic don't turn up at all. :rant:
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I only learnt of all this late this afternoon and the boss was not around. I normally don’t like to make any waves but I feel I need to bring this up with the boss in the morning. I’m expecting to be told I’m overreacting and there is nothing that can be done. I would be interested to hear how others would handle the situation.
In the current situation you co-worker's behaviour is unacceptable. I'd take this up with your boss. Maybe you can move your desk further away. But your boss also needs to try and talk some sense into your co-worker. As an employer your boss is responsible for a safe & healthy work environment. Which also means your boss can require people to refrain from activities which puts employees in danger.
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Well, still not grasping what's going on?
fear, fear, fear, nothing happens.
Are you still on noodles and toilet paper?
No WHO? No NWO? No Event 201?
man, man, ridiculous, right?
:-DD
Sorry, I've got no idea what that is supposed to mean, I guess English is not your native language.
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Well, still not grasping what's going on?
fear, fear, fear, nothing happens.
Are you still on noodles and toilet paper?
No WHO? No NWO? No Event 201?
man, man, ridiculous, right?
:-DD
Sorry, I've got no idea what that is supposed to mean, I guess English is not your native language.
I wasn't talking to you specifically. ;)
The protagonists here know exactly what I mean.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmtEGNdee2Y (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmtEGNdee2Y)
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To be fair that's normal operating procedure prior to pandemic conditions in my world. Unexpected visitors are never welcome.
If you are a Brit, expected visitors are only marginally welcome, even in the best of times..... unless they are bringing a large payment. That usually makes them more welcome.
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I prefer a bank transfer :-DD
@hwj-d: Fox news :palm: :palm: :palm: :palm:. Perhaps WHO could remove Fox network staffers and sponsors. They are a far more worrying disease.
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In the current situation you co-worker's behaviour is unacceptable. I'd take this up with your boss. Maybe you can move your desk further away. But your boss also needs to try and talk some sense into your co-worker. As an employer your boss is responsible for a safe & healthy work environment. Which also means your boss can require people to refrain from activities which puts employees in danger.
Yup. And in times of confinement, offices that require people to actually be physically present must already justify this with a reasonable rationale. If the rationale is already questionable, and the employer doesn't even enforce strict rules inside the office, they are completely at fault.
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they are completely at fault
But the question is what to do about it. It is no good in a years time being able to say to them 'told you so' when you are already dead.
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snipped youtube link of Tucker
Realize that Tucker Carlson is a spin-doctor, not a real journalist anymore, if he ever was one. Not the worst one of those on the Fox network, but he spouts a lot of fake news for entertainment and/or political purposes.
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I prefer a bank transfer :-DD
@hwj-d: Fox news :palm: :palm: :palm: :palm:. Perhaps WHO could remove Fox network staffers and sponsors. They are a far more worrying disease.
I know what you think, and I expect nothing less from you. :=\
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Good at least I am clear consistent and not insane then :)
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snipped youtube link of Tucker
Realize that Tucker Carlson is a spin-doctor, ...
oh, nice :-DD
There's nothing ridiculous about that now, is there?
Wait, times change.
soon.
:popcorn:
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Went to the local Spar, plenty of toilet paper in stock, and reasonably priced for Kwikie Mart pricing. Same for Shop Wrong, plenty of white paper, in assorted price ranges, and types of feel and style, from John Wayne to triple ply ultra fluffy.
Out of stock both places of my required plain yoghurt, even the (shudder) low fat and fat free (WHY!) varieties. Luckily new in stock, unsweetened strawberry and cream flavour, so the DT's are held at bay. Not too bad either, will buy again. Even had the Lindt 80% in stock, but not the 90%, and if I want cocoa I will not pay them the price they want for the 99% (and it is 45g as well, in a 100g package with a massive plastic vacuum formed insert) and just use cocoa powder and cream instead to DIY.
They did have tonic water in stock, yummy, plus it keeps the Mozzies at bay. I wiped them out, all 4 bottles.
Went out to help a company with machine queries, and ran into the rozzers on the way back. Papiere bitte mein Herr, but nothing else.
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This is one occasion where being an introvert is an advantage! I spend most of the time on my own anyway, so this situation, in that respect, is no different for me!
Once a week for grocery shopping and very occasionally the odd time to run a errand, that is my sum total of venturing from the house!
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I only learnt of all this late this afternoon and the boss was not around. I normally don’t like to make any waves but I feel I need to bring this up with the boss in the morning. I’m expecting to be told I’m overreacting and there is nothing that can be done. I would be interested to hear how others would handle the situation.
In the current situation you co-worker's behaviour is unacceptable. I'd take this up with your boss. Maybe you can move your desk further away. But your boss also needs to try and talk some sense into your co-worker. As an employer your boss is responsible for a safe & healthy work environment. Which also means your boss can require people to refrain from activities which puts employees in danger.
You should leave work immediately and not return until after you talk to your boss. If your boss fails to take swift and thorough action then I would consider that as an unsafe working environment and I would walk out immediately and file a complaint with the proper work safety organization and I would not return there until the situation is corrected (if ever). Several national governments have already made it clear that workers can not be penalized for refusing to work if their employers can't ensure SAFE working conditions during this pandemic.
If I was the guy's boss I would terminate him immediately. He's putting everyone that he works with in jeoparty and his actions could potentially lead the collapse of that business.
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In the current situation you co-worker's behaviour is unacceptable. I'd take this up with your boss. Maybe you can move your desk further away. But your boss also needs to try and talk some sense into your co-worker. As an employer your boss is responsible for a safe & healthy work environment. Which also means your boss can require people to refrain from activities which puts employees in danger.
Yup. And in times of confinement, offices that require people to actually be physically present must already justify this with a reasonable rationale. If the rationale is already questionable, and the employer doesn't even enforce strict rules inside the office, they are completely at fault.
Yes, actually the boss asked me a few weeks back (when we all thought the there would be a government enforced closure) if I could work from home. My answer was yes, I have a better lab at home than at work. But a lot of other employees in the factory can't work from home so he asked me to keep it quiet and until it is mandated I have to keep going in, even though I don't need to be there. At least they are doing their best to keep everyone employed so far in these difficult times.
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You should leave work immediately and not return until after you talk to your boss. If your boss fails to take swift and thorough action then I would consider that as an unsafe working environment and I would walk out immediately and file a complaint with the proper work safety organization and I would not return there until the situation is corrected (if ever). Several national governments have already made it clear that workers can not be penalized for refusing to work if their employers can't ensure SAFE working conditions during this pandemic.
If I was the guy's boss I would terminate him immediately. He's putting everyone that he works with in jeoparty and his actions could potentially lead the collapse of that business.
Yes, I will be talking to the boss first thing this morning. I hope the guy gets moved out of my office. If just one of us at work were to come down with the virus the whole place would probably be shut down. As you say that could potentially lead to the collapse of that business.
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Yup. And in times of confinement, offices that require people to actually be physically present must already justify this with a reasonable rationale. If the rationale is already questionable, and the employer doesn't even enforce strict rules inside the office, they are completely at fault.
They've been pretty slack so far, they bought a couple of cans of Glen20 disinfectant spray and a packet of disinfectant wipes for a 200m2 factory. Put a few hand washing posters up on the wall and sent an email saying if we need to self quarantine it would come out of annual leave (if you have any). Basically just trying to cover their asses.
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Our building still has plenty of dunny rolls every day. Although someone has been nicking them and breaking the locks on the holders because they have signs up on the door about it now. But I've never seen the ones on my floor empty.
I've been known to pick the locks now and then just for something to do while I'm on the can. The ones I've encountered are not very high tech, I don't think I've ever failed to pick one with a paperclip.
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If I was the guy's boss I would terminate him immediately. He's putting everyone that he works with in jeoparty and his actions could potentially lead the collapse of that business.
Depending on the local laws that might be a very bad idea. Having a party during a pandemic is stupid but what he does on his own time is none of his employer's business from a legal standpoint. You can't fire someone for getting sick, and it's a slippery slope if we allow people to fire someone for engaging in risky behavior outside of the office. I mean where do you draw the line? I've picked up cold and flu viruses many times in my life without having been to a party.
I think it's perfectly reasonable during this time to require someone to stay home if you suspect they may have been exposed but really there's no way to tell. It's entirely possible and even statistically likely that the guy who had the party is not infected. Likewise my partner's brother recently became ill with symptoms suggesting Covid and he has been following all the rules, working from home full time and only leaving the house to buy food. It's a numbers game, you can reduce your chances of getting sick but it's virtually impossible to prevent it entirely.
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If I was the guy's boss I would terminate him immediately. He's putting everyone that he works with in jeoparty and his actions could potentially lead the collapse of that business.
Depending on the local laws that might be a very bad idea. Having a party during a pandemic is stupid but what he does on his own time is none of his employer's business from a legal standpoint. You can't fire someone for getting sick, and it's a slippery slope if we allow people to fire someone for engaging in risky behavior outside of the office. I mean where do you draw the line? I've picked up cold and flu viruses many times in my life without having been to a party.
I think it's perfectly reasonable during this time to require someone to stay home if you suspect they may have been exposed but really there's no way to tell. It's entirely possible and even statistically likely that the guy who had the party is not infected. Likewise my partner's brother recently became ill with symptoms suggesting Covid and he has been following all the rules, working from home full time and only leaving the house to buy food. It's a numbers game, you can reduce your chances of getting sick but it's virtually impossible to prevent it entirely.
Well, I spoke to the boss about it this morning and he understood completely. He spoke with my co-worker and he has been moved out of my office (will see how long it lasts). I know it is unlikely the guy actually has the virus but the fact that he is ignoring the social distancing laws we have here in Australia makes it statistically much more likely he could get infected and thus it increases everyone else's risk that need to work with him. At least he's been moved away from me and other staff. I'm not sure anything more can really be done legally.
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Oh my god, i'm not alone ...
Clearly not alone...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=4vHx-UyIM9M&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=4vHx-UyIM9M&feature=emb_logo)
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Re: Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
Working From Home is all well and good,
and as long as there's an ample supply of dunny paper to keep the show on the road
BUT is anyone actually making MONEY to pay the bills?
and is there real confidence that there will still be a wage to return to, or business to resume,
once Corona has left the building,
and all the other modern viri and old world maladies come back to have another go :-//
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Re: Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
Working From Home is all well and good,
and as long as there's an ample supply of dunny paper to keep the show on the road
BUT is anyone actually making MONEY to pay the bills?
and is there real confidence that there will still be a wage to return to, or business to resume,
once Corona has left the building,
We can't wait for that. With a mix of testing, tracking (apps), keeping distance + hygiene and rotating shifts of who is going to the office when it should be possible to normalize operations. As I wrote before the experts (the real ones) think that we'll need to keep up distancing for at least another year.
Currently we are in damage control & regrouping mode. That needs to change into going into the offensive mode (well prepared & equipped). Over here some shops are re-opening again after making modifications.
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Thread cleaned up.
BD137 and others, quit derailing this thread.
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Thread cleaned up.
BD137 and others, quit derailing this thread.
@bd139, in addition to the post deletions you will also have your VCEO and VBEO derated to 60V until further notice! :-DD
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>:( :-DD
(sorry Dave - I'll keep on topic now)
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This is one occasion where being an introvert is an advantage! I spend most of the time on my own anyway, so this situation, in that respect, is no different for me!
Yes indeed, except that it's bound to make you even more of an introvert in the end. It certainly won't help. But maybe you're already introvert beyond repair, I don't know! ;D
But seriously, I think the situation is going to damage our social skills and behaviors if it lasts, however introvert or extrovert we are.
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This is one occasion where being an introvert is an advantage! I spend most of the time on my own anyway, so this situation, in that respect, is no different for me!
Yes indeed, except that it's bound to make you even more of an introvert in the end. It certainly won't help. But maybe you're already introvert beyond repair, I don't know! ;D
But seriously, I think the situation is going to damage our social skills and behaviors if it lasts, however introvert or extrovert we are.
You write like being an introvert is a bad thing to be fought against. The only reason to fight against it is to be able to function in a society that persecutes the introverted. As society changes to require less and less direct interaction with others, being an introvert is an unbridled good.
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Re: Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus
Working From Home is all well and good,
and as long as there's an ample supply of dunny paper to keep the show on the road
BUT is anyone actually making MONEY to pay the bills?
and is there real confidence that there will still be a wage to return to, or business to resume,
once Corona has left the building,
We can't wait for that. With a mix of testing, tracking (apps), keeping distance + hygiene and rotating shifts of who is going to the office when it should be possible to normalize operations. As I wrote before the experts (the real ones) think that we'll need to keep up distancing for at least another year.
Adam Savage had some wise word on that in one of his recent live streams
https://youtu.be/hIbgY1n5bDo?t=3029
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being an introvert is an unbridled good
Really?
• Psychology: a person predominantly concerned with their own thoughts and feelings rather than with external things. Compare with extrovert.
Isn't that another term for 'self-centered'?
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being an introvert is an unbridled good
Really?
• Psychology: a person predominantly concerned with their own thoughts and feelings rather than with external things. Compare with extrovert.
Isn't that another term for 'self-centered'?
No. Most self centered people seem to be extroverts.
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As an introvert myself I don't see it as a bad thing necessarily, however it certainly does come with disadvantages. Extroverts tend to have an easier time making connections, they tend to be more successful in their careers, they have an easier time with dating and all that stuff. Overall I wouldn't mind being a tad more extroverted however yes, under the current circumstances my introverted tendencies definitely make the situation more tolerable.
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I had to go to the grocery today, been 10 days since the last trip. I wasn't really out of anything, but there's not much food left that I really want to eat. I stayed up extra late so I could get in just as the store opened at 7:00 am. There were already several dozen people there. I was surprised to see over half were wearing masks. I have no idea where they got them. One older guy was wearing a bandana, desperado style, as he drove around in a powered cart. I felt pretty icky just being there and it was difficult to keep any distance from other people. I grabbed a bunch of stuff and got out as fast as I could. I think the odds of catching anything were pretty low but it's still worrisome.
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I had to go to the grocery today, been 10 days since the last trip. I wasn't really out of anything, but there's not much food left that I really want to eat.
I stayed up extra late so I could get in just as the store opened at 7:00 am.
There were already several dozen people there.
I was surprised to see over half were wearing masks. I have no idea where they got them.
One older guy was wearing a bandana, desperado style, as he drove around in a powered cart.
I felt pretty icky just being there and it was difficult to keep any distance from other people.
I grabbed a bunch of stuff and got out as fast as I could. I think the odds of catching anything were pretty low but it's still worrisome.
Not much different here at any time of the day/night,
and 'worrisome' is an understatement to realize that:
99% of the population must be a mixed combo of clueless mis-educated suckers, gullible idiots, ignorant self centered entertainment junkies
0.5% sporting primitive canine DNA, believe it's a dog eat dog world, and network together as a 'pack' to manipulate the 99%,
just because they can, and oh so easily, with zero opposition or competition,
the payoff and benefits are great, with the bonus they get a genuine woody or moist from conning trusting idiots
whilst the remaining disappointed and frustrated 0.5% have no choice but to tolerate both mentally deficient groups,
and play along till periods of slow financial recovery, progress and opportunities resume
..till the 0.5% schemers decide it's time to pull yet another global fear sting
Is it any wonder UFOs nowadays perform a quick scan of the information systems on Earth,
them immediately do a U-Turn and PO back to their less knackered world :scared:
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I had to go to the grocery today, been 10 days since the last trip. I wasn't really out of anything, but there's not much food left that I really want to eat. I stayed up extra late so I could get in just as the store opened at 7:00 am. There were already several dozen people there. I was surprised to see over half were wearing masks. I have no idea where they got them. One older guy was wearing a bandana, desperado style, as he drove around in a powered cart. I felt pretty icky just being there and it was difficult to keep any distance from other people. I grabbed a bunch of stuff and got out as fast as I could. I think the odds of catching anything were pretty low but it's still worrisome.
The queue outside our local supermarket looks long. Then you allow for the people in the queue being 3m apart, with a trolley between each person, and there really aren't that many people there. It only takes a few minutes to get into the store. Within that store they have put a lot of yellow tape markers on the floor, to try to make people flow in particular directions, and help them to maintain some distance.
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The queue outside our local supermarket looks long. Then you allow for the people in the queue being 3m apart, with a trolley between each person, and there really aren't that many people there. It only takes a few minutes to get into the store. Within that store they have put a lot of yellow tape markers on the floor, to try to make people flow in particular directions, and help them to maintain some distance.
And still you get both parents out shopping, with the children running around uncontrolled. And to top it off, one of the parents will walk up right next to you and shout across the store at their completely uncontrolled petri dishes.
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The queue outside our local supermarket looks long. Then you allow for the people in the queue being 3m apart, with a trolley between each person, and there really aren't that many people there. It only takes a few minutes to get into the store. Within that store they have put a lot of yellow tape markers on the floor, to try to make people flow in particular directions, and help them to maintain some distance.
And still you get both parents out shopping, with the children running around uncontrolled. And to top it off, one of the parents will walk up right next to you and shout across the store at their completely uncontrolled petri dishes.
Our local stores won't allow more than two people in a group right now. So, you see a small number of kids with a parent, but no bigger family groups.
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I had to go to the grocery today, been 10 days since the last trip. I wasn't really out of anything, but there's not much food left that I really want to eat. I stayed up extra late so I could get in just as the store opened at 7:00 am. There were already several dozen people there. I was surprised to see over half were wearing masks. I have no idea where they got them.
Yes, I noticed the same over here. I guess many are getting them from online shops. You can find masks on Amazon currently. They may not be good masks, but some are available.
it was difficult to keep any distance from other people. I grabbed a bunch of stuff and got out as fast as I could. I think the odds of catching anything were pretty low but it's still worrisome.
Yes I agree, it's pretty difficult to keep reasonable distance from other people at all times inside the shops, even when there aren't many people in there. The sections in most shops are just too narrow for that. I admit I get a little paranoid too.
Now it's probably unreasonable since (at least from official medical opinion) the odds of catching any significant viral charge is pretty low this way. I think this is really making us paranoid.
I'm worried about the days after the crisis...
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I guess being single helps for me. Been enjoying working from home. I could get used to this. :D
(http://gal.redsquirrel.me/thumbs/lrg-4923-dsc_2078e.jpg) (http://gal.redsquirrel.me/images/other/random/dsc_2078e.jpg)
Now if I can get my cat to face the monitors and watch the alarms for me, I could just go for a nap. :-DD
I don't know if I would want to do this 100% of the time though, I feel I would fall very complacent and never get out of the house. We had some nice weather for a bit though so I was going for short walks on my breaks, and then a longer walk after my shift, now that we have light after 5. But in winter it would take a bit more effort to get out. Saving on gas though, my truck has not moved for at least a week! Of course gas prices are at like 89c a litre last I checked. Have not seen gas go down that low since before 9/11. I think it do go below a buck a few times at some point but it lasted like a day.
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I like working from home and have thought at times that it would be nice to do it fulltime but now I'm wishing I could go into the office at least one day a week.
My car has not moved in close to a month, I went to the pharmacy to pick up a prescription and stopped at the grocery store, that was the last time I went anywhere further than my mailbox. I've been thinking I should probably put a charger on the battery so it doesn't go dead and maybe move it a few feet so the tires don't get flat spots.
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As far as cars go, you should probably drive them a bit every week, at least for long enough to charge up the battery and get the tires warm.
In other news, I heard on the radio last night that drinking on the job has increased to an estimated 38% due to so many now working at home because of the virus.
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My car has not moved in close to a month, I went to the pharmacy to pick up a prescription and stopped at the grocery store, that was the last time I went anywhere further than my mailbox. I've been thinking I should probably put a charger on the battery so it doesn't go dead and maybe move it a few feet so the tires don't get flat spots.
Many modern cars will have dead battery in under a month, because of all the little systems they have running continuously that haven't been designed to be ultra low power.
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As far as cars go, you should probably drive them a bit every week, at least for long enough to charge up the battery and get the tires warm.
Yes. You have to drive a car at least once a week. Because I'm mostly working from home anyway my car has been standing still for weeks and that resulted in flat spots on all tyres. Very annoying to drive with. I already had the rear tyres changed a couple of months ago.
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The queue outside our local supermarket looks long. Then you allow for the people in the queue being 3m apart, with a trolley between each person, and there really aren't that many people there.
It only takes a few minutes to get into the store. Within that store they have put a lot of yellow tape markers on the floor, to try to make people flow in particular directions, and help them to maintain some distance.
And still you get both parents out shopping, with the children running around uncontrolled.
And to top it off, one of the parents will walk up right next to you and shout across the store at their completely uncontrolled petri dishes.
There is no doubt they have many relatives littering living in many parts of Australia ::)
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Concerning cars: start them up once a week (avoid a freezing cold morning) let them idle and run for 15 to 30 minutes,
with an occasional accelerator press to keep it from flooding, stalling or over revving,
with NO heavy draw accessories on like heater, air con. lights etc
radio iis ok if you can bear the noise they play and the childish toilet based coked idiot talk, and generic repetitive bs they spout :palm:
Move the car a few inches to shift any flat spots on the tyres/tires/tar-errrs
and depending on the overall CCA condition of the battery, you're good to go for another week :phew:
and PLEASE, unless you have a death wish or want to beat corona to the finish line,
do not perform this is in an enclosed garage or space :scared:
i.e. take it outside and do it, then park the car back in when done..and turn off the engine asap!
Yes, it's obvious and like 'Oh, DUH..' but there's always that one uninformed car newb
or lazy idiot that may take themselves out,
which would be bad timing as the Darwin Award Prize manufacturer is closed too,
due to the ever versatile multitasking Corona :D
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Hmmm never considered the tires getting flat spots. Was thinking what do they do at dealerships, but guess those cars get moved a lot too to plow the lot and what not.
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I guess being single helps for me. Been enjoying working from home. I could get used to this. :D
(http://gal.redsquirrel.me/thumbs/lrg-4923-dsc_2078e.jpg) (http://gal.redsquirrel.me/images/other/random/dsc_2078e.jpg)
If you shave off your beard you will look like a cute girl ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
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My car has not moved in close to a month, I went to the pharmacy to pick up a prescription and stopped at the grocery store, that was the last time I went anywhere further than my mailbox. I've been thinking I should probably put a charger on the battery so it doesn't go dead and maybe move it a few feet so the tires don't get flat spots.
Many modern cars will have dead battery in under a month, because of all the little systems they have running continuously that haven't been designed to be ultra low power.
Well my "modern" car is 30 years old, that and the '84 have both sat for months at a time in the past while I was driving the other. I let one sit for 6 months and the battery got a little weak but it was still enough to start it. Another advantage of older cars I suppose.
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I have a 30 year old car as well, it sits happily for 6 months of the year (winter). - I do put a small maintenance charger on it, since it makes the batteries last significantly longer if you don't let them run down.
The tires do get flat spots from standing, but it is normally "cured" after about a week of driving...
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The tires do get flat spots from standing, but it is normally "cured" after about a week of driving...
Yes, I wouldn't fret about it too much for just a couple months. Battery either, at worst you'll have to recharge it.
Annoying but it's not the worst ahead of us. Recession will be much more of a problem for many.
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It doesn't affect me. Because of the corona, i have an extra responsibility to take care of my patients. In a pandemic situation, medical staffs have no time to rest.
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I guess being single helps for me. Been enjoying working from home. I could get used to this. :D
(http://gal.redsquirrel.me/thumbs/lrg-4923-dsc_2078e.jpg) (http://gal.redsquirrel.me/images/other/random/dsc_2078e.jpg)
If you shave off your beard you will look like a cute girl ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
Haha yeah that's staying. It was way longer before actually, I wanted to see how big it would get if I grow for a year. Always had short hair and decided to grow it out about 2 years back. I haven't been mistaken for a girl from behind yet, but it's bound to happen lol.
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The good news is no one will try to chat you up due to Social Distancing :phew:
but that's no real guarantee, watch your back mate,
Corona fueled knuckleheads are everywhere, looking for an easy hookup :scared:
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As far as cars go, you should probably drive them a bit every week, at least for long enough to charge up the battery and get the tires warm.
Yes. You have to drive a car at least once a week. Because I'm mostly working from home anyway my car has been standing still for weeks and that resulted in flat spots on all tyres. Very annoying to drive with. I already had the rear tyres changed a couple of months ago.
I had a dead battery after two weeks. Although, there is only a small battery in the Prius (and probably needs replacing). It was enough to boot up the car, but not enough to start the hybrid system, parking break or any of the servos. Or to stop the car. And it started continuously beeping at me, no way to stop it. Funny times.
Its been a month since I started working from home. Been in the shops 3 times, once I could get a grocery pick-up. I've been working in the garden, and on the house to keep myself busy. Luckily I could do pretty much all of my office work from home. It seems to even go faster than usual.
Human contact is missing a lot. I feel depressed sometimes due the lack of it.This isolation is definitely teaching me things, and it is a life changing experience.
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The tires do get flat spots from standing, but it is normally "cured" after about a week of driving...
I tried that but it didn't work. And this was only after leaving the car unused for a couple of weeks. I've read some advice that putting an extra 0.5 bar of pressure in the tyres can help to prevent flat spots.
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The tires do get flat spots from standing, but it is normally "cured" after about a week of driving...
I tried that but it didn't work. And this was only after leaving the car unused for a couple of weeks. I've read some advice that putting an extra 0.5 bar of pressure in the tyres can help to prevent flat spots.
Yeah, are you sure your tires were not slightly under-inflated to begin with?
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This is one occasion where being an introvert is an advantage! I spend most of the time on my own anyway, so this situation, in that respect, is no different for me!
Yes indeed, except that it's bound to make you even more of an introvert in the end. It certainly won't help. But maybe you're already introvert beyond repair, I don't know! ;D
But seriously, I think the situation is going to damage our social skills and behaviors if it lasts, however introvert or extrovert we are.
You write like being an introvert is a bad thing to be fought against.
Oh nope. There was absolutely zero judgement there. And "introvert" is pretty vague. That can describe a whole spectrum of character traits. Past a certain degree, that can certainly make things harder in daily life, and as soon as it can make someone suffer, making it worse by isolating them is probably not the best thing they can experience. That was my point. Likewise, damaging people's social skills doesn't seem to be a good thing per se IMO. We are what we are - no problem. But isolating people is probably not going to help anything much except limit spreading viruses.
The only reason to fight against it is to be able to function in a society that persecutes the introverted. As society changes to require less and less direct interaction with others, being an introvert is an unbridled good.
Persecutes? I may have hit a sore sport here, or something, in which case I apologize. But I think this is a slight exxageration here.
I think by definition, a society is a group of people interacting with one another (else I don't think that would qualify as a society), so you can't blame "society" to favor social interactions. That's what it's all about in a way. But persecuting the introverts? Sounds like a bit much.
Lastly, I think we should make distinctions between things that look related but are not quite.
Being an introvert doesn't necessarily mean being solitary.
It doesn't necessarily mean you don't *need* social interaction - it can also just mean you're not good at it, but would suffer without it. So you may be an introvert but still suffer from this situation.
In the same vein - whether people are introvert, solitary or both, or anything in between, depriving people of their basic freedom of movement is something else entirely. Some may not suffer much from less direct social interaction, or even be kind of happy about it, but being trapped in your own home - I don't wish that to my worst enemy. So let's not confuse different aspects of this situation. IMHO.
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The only reason to fight against it is to be able to function in a society that persecutes the introverted. As society changes to require less and less direct interaction with others, being an introvert is an unbridled good.
Persecutes? I may have hit a sore sport here, or something, in which case I apologize. But I think this is a slight exxageration here.
Persecutes is exactly the right word. Society takes people perfectly content with their own nature, and tries to indoctrinate them into feeling bad about what they are.
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A warm or hot day drive around will wake up any tyre flat spots,
and then a good bash down the freeway sitting on 80 kph will have them warmed up and rolling like new.
Done this like TOO MANY times, and the battery gets a good consistent revs 14.4v charge too.
FAILS to watch out for:
Too low or high air pressure, different pressure on each tyre, or one may be punctured = slow leak
Tyre balance and wheel alignment out, causing vibration at certain speeds on the freeway
and or tyre squeals on hard turns or roundabouts
Damaged, bent or faulty wheel rim/s
Wrong type/size of cheap or used tyres for that car
Old battery or low on water,
loose crusty battery connections that 'look ok' is a punter favorite.. :horse:
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Well I took the truck for a ride today, got some gas for the snowblower since I was low, and there's a big storm coming tonight. 40cm+ with high winds so that will mean lot of drifts. Added air to all the tires too since they were a bit low, I had a warning light and kept neglecting it.
The only reason to fight against it is to be able to function in a society that persecutes the introverted. As society changes to require less and less direct interaction with others, being an introvert is an unbridled good.
Persecutes? I may have hit a sore sport here, or something, in which case I apologize. But I think this is a slight exxageration here.
Persecutes is exactly the right word. Society takes people perfectly content with their own nature, and tries to indoctrinate them into feeling bad about what they are.
That is true, as an introvert myself I see that a lot.
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Working from home is terrible, I'm very tired. I work more than 8 hours, so my children spend all day in gadgets and this is very bad. I look forward to the day when schools will reopen.
Yep, home schooling is tough, let alone school holidays now when you can't take advantage of the usual school holiday activities and programs available.
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A booming trade seems to be security. The local Coles supermarket has no less than three full time security guards controlling flow.
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A booming trade seems to be security. The local Coles supermarket has no less than three full time security guards controlling flow.
That is very much temporary though. As soon as the threat of the virus passes all that security will dry up and there will still be huge numbers of unemployed.
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I'm working from home full-time in precautionary isolation, and have been doing so since the very first days of March. Company took all remotable and critical competences and told them to stay home, and continue working. I've been in to work twice in this time, both were for critical data network incidents, and meant solitary work in the middle of night. I can do almost all my work remotely, so this is business somewhat like, if not as, ususal.
In Sweden, schools aren't closed under the age of 13 (older ages are homework) so my children go to school. My parents are isolating and I'm shopping for them, while keeping distance. We've come to the conclusion that we've probably had the disease already, but fairly mild for all involved; myself mostly asymptotically, the wife spent a week with something like a bad cold; the children were home for a week with similar symptoms. All who are going to work or school of course observed the mandated post-symptom isolation protocols et c.
I must stress that we are getting -- so far -- mostly easily through this. As a family, because we all have work in insensitive organisations, and also, to some extent as a country. This is on a zoomed-out view; I have an ex-colleague who lost his mother (~85yo) to this some 10 days ago. Shit is real.
As for the different paths chosen by our authorities and others, I think it's down to our public office management model. Authorities in Sweden are largely omnipotent within the boundaries set by law and regulations. The government can't micro manage them on a case-by-case basis; it is explicitly forbidden. Therefore, what the scientists and other experts at the Population Health Authority (Folkhälsomyndigheten) say, is what we're working with, statistical insecurities and all. Of course the government supports the work by introducing legislation, to help with restrictions, and to ensure we've got money to do this, as well as trying to support those businesses which of course will be hit.
Also, it is one of those times when having universal access to medical care for a society, without economical barriers to entry, is truly a common good. Sure, the system will experience extreme load conditions (which the exclusive private clinic in the hills will not see), but the nature of a pandemic is that you need to get the population through it as unscathed as possible, if for nothing else to have a society of minions to oppress afterwards.
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A booming trade seems to be security. The local Coles supermarket has no less than three full time security guards controlling flow.
That is very much temporary though. As soon as the threat of the virus passes all that security will dry up and there will still be huge numbers of unemployed.
"As soon as" is not going to be any time soon though. I think those folks will have job for a good year.
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"As soon as" is not going to be any time soon though. I think those folks will have job for a good year.
And then what?
I'd bet that things will start to relax in some areas within the next month or so, for the total threat to go away it will be longer but if we stay in lockdown like this for most of the year we are screwed either way.
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A booming trade seems to be security. The local Coles supermarket has no less than three full time security guards controlling flow.
That is very much temporary though. As soon as the threat of the virus passes all that security will dry up and there will still be huge numbers of unemployed.
"As soon as" is not going to be any time soon though. I think those folks will have job for a good year.
We are on the verge of easing restrictions here.
They will likely stage restrictions, but even then conflicts will remains. For example, if you re-open shops and restaurants then that also forces them to remove the two persons congregating in public rule etc.
But yeah, they have said "social distancing" is likely to remain for the rest of the year. But then how do the handle say restaurants and movie theaters? Do you only allows two people per seat/table separated by X distance. What about food court chairs?
It starts getting ridiculous very fast, and we have already had many examples of police abusing their powers for stupid simple things. They can't keep this up for another year, people will just start to ignore any rules eventually. At the moment it's this novel thing (I'm here are week!), give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.
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give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.
Hopefully this will coincide with reasonable population immunity, so that the cases still to happen are few enough to handle. If you let go too quickly there will be a second surge of cases.
This of course also must be regarded in proportion to lockdown severity level because a very tight lockdown will both cause the care resources to not have to ramp up so much and fuel the desire to get society going again by opening up. Those two conditions combined will stimulate that second wave if poorly managed. Sort of a damped (but hopefully unsustainable) self-oscillation.
I'm betting on that this (slow, paced return whether by exhaustion or scaling back of restrictions) is what people setting the regulations are aiming for.
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give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.
Hopefully this will coincide with reasonable population immunity, so that the cases still to happen are few enough to handle. If you let go too quickly there will be a second surge of cases.
I think there will be a 2nd surge of cases regardless.
The problem is you can't just stop almost the entire society for a year or something, the old "the cure is worse than the disease" thing.
This quarantine has been great for several reasons (apart from the obvious downsides of course):
1) Helped limit the cases to give us time to cope and learn and research the whole thing.
2) Scared the shit out of people and instilled a new culture of hygiene and consciousness of how these things spread.
3) Open up new avenues and a "new normal" for work from home and other scemes.
So any 2nd surge of cases (it's coming on winter here) should not need the same level draconian and quite frankly erosion of rights and freedoms.
IMO more priority for any 2nd round should be better isolation of the vulnerable. i.e. I'd rather see the cops currently ticketing people just sitting isolated in a park, to guarding and restricting access to retirement homes.
This of course also must be regarded in proportion to lockdown severity level because a very tight lockdown will both cause the care resources to not have to ramp up so much and fuel the desire to get society going again by opening up. Those two conditions combined will stimulate that second wave if poorly managed. Sort of a damped (but hopefully unsustainable) self-oscillation.
I can't see it not being a damped response. There are likely already less dangerous asymptomatic variants of the virus going around. Viruses evolve quickly. i.e. a huge number of people seem to be showing no symptoms at all, and this hopefully lends itself to the spread of a less dangerous variant. Although it's hard to get good numbers on that unless you test absolutely everyone.
I'm betting on that this (slow, paced return whether by exhaustion or scaling back of restrictions) is what people setting the regulations are aiming for.
Here in oz they have already publicly stated that is the case.
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I'd bet that things will start to relax in some areas within the next month or so, for the total threat to go away it will be longer but if we stay in lockdown like this for most of the year we are screwed either way.
At some point very shortly this turns into a global depression instead of global recession, and that by itself kills huge numbers of people, potentially more than the virus.
You can't just money print your way out of that either, that'll just prolong the depression.
So it's a fine line that must be towed her. We had our dumb arse NSW Premier come and and state that they won't be releasing social distancing rules "until a vaccine is found". The entire country laughed at her ignorance.
I fear the problem might be the lack of guts on the part of some politicians to ease restrictions, because that's putting your political arse on the line, and that's not something politicians do.
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Yep. Spock had it right...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa6c3OTr6yA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa6c3OTr6yA)
We're just queuing up to burn 99% of the population instead of 1% at the moment. Doesn't seem justifiable. But that's what happens when the media deals in body counts.
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I'd bet that things will start to relax in some areas within the next month or so, for the total threat to go away it will be longer but if we stay in lockdown like this for most of the year we are screwed either way.
So it's a fine line that must be towed her. We had our dumb arse NSW Premier come and and state that they won't be releasing social distancing rules "until a vaccine is found". The entire country laughed at her ignorance.
Actually keeping the social distancing up until there is a vaccine (or even better: a remedy against people's lungs filling up with fluid) is a very good idea. Most of the world is going to do just that. I don't see what is funny about it. If you look at the graphs from the experts you can see getting rid of Covid19 is a long term process. In the order of 1 or 2 years.
What is happening right now is getting shops and factories modified so people can work and keep a distance at the same time. Together with rigorous testing and tracking apps that should be enough to control the outbreak while returning to a business as usual situation. But likely ther advice to work from home as much as possible is going to stand until next year.
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I don't know if it's a good idea or not.
The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet. We don't have accurate health outcome statistics (it has turned into a political shit show) or accurate testing available. Now we get to the plateau of deaths and then the question is: now what? There is actually no way to prove causality between the lockdown and the outcome. For all we know the disease itself may have burned out and we were all quietly infected and we're doing something counterintuitive. No tests, no way of knowing. But the body count vs admission count is pretty high still, which is a statistically useless figure for overall impact analysis. All it does is drive headlines and healthcare capacity (the latter of which was reduced massively by politicians!)
We've already shut down half the health services here so there are going to be secondary outcomes. Mental health (lots of suicides already), routine procedures missing and health outcomes escalated, abuse and rising crime from the desperation of those furloughed and fired. Not to mention economic ruin.
At some point, we cross a line between killing 50,000 here now and 100,000 in the next 10 years. Informal stats put the austerity death toll at around 130,000 here already and that is nothing compared to the next decade of hell we're going to get from this.
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I don't know if it's a good idea or not.
The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet. We don't have accurate health outcome statistics (it has turned into a political shit show) or accurate testing available. Now we get to the plateau of deaths and then the question is: now what? There is actually no way to prove causality between the lockdown and the outcome.
You are wrong here. There is lots of data and virologists use advanced models (which include virus mutation, seasonal influences, mortality, etc, etc) to create reasonably accurate best and worst case predictions of how an outbreak progresses. Just be patient. Lock down is only phase 1 which won't be in effect very long.
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I have been working from home partially since the beginning of March, full time since the middle of March. Had the last week off though. I like my home office.
6 feet of monitors. 2x34" 21:9 UltraWides gives me plenty of neck exercise! Top of the range PC (as of April 2018), better equipment than in work where I have an i5 laptop and two normal monitors.
(http://i.imgur.com/ndwmFpP.jpg) (https://imgur.com/ndwmFpP)
Our CEO did conference calls for each team a few weeks back. Company is still looking good. We do a lot of software for "capital markets", ie. banks and trading companies. Most of our business (in our department) is remote anyway.
So while bonuses and pay rises have been deferred to October and the CEO himself has dropped his salary to £1 per month, it's still mostly ticking along.
He did mention that they were mid planning the "2.0" for the company direction and the fact the company is still thriving while the building is completely closed down has made them change their minds on a lot of things.
A lot of companies who found this new working harder will struggle to adapt, but we already have the skills to do so.
Personally though, it's pretty hard. I have been suffering from depression for years and progressively climbing further and further under my rock with work being my only social interaction on an average week. While I don't mind my own company, doing this for 4 weeks straight now is difficult and I have had to be strict with myself to not turn to alcohol or worse. Trying to force myself to get up and do things, even on my week off. I'm looking forward to starting back to even remote working after a week off now.
My daughter is allowed to visit which helps. It's been the first few times she has been left with me alone, think that means I am actually an adult now? Nah. Silly thoughts.
Stay safe everyone and as we have all been hit hard by this, lets just take the recession on the chin and NO MORE BAIL OUTS! Let them fail. Let them die. If their services are really requried business will spring back and boom anew. New companies will be born to replace those that died. This is perfectly natural and a good way to get rid of those "too big to fail" monsters that hold us all to randsom while paying multi-million salarys and bonuses.
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What is happening right now is getting shops and factories modified so people can work and keep a distance at the same time. Together with rigorous testing and tracking apps that should be enough to control the outbreak while returning to a business as usual situation.
It is not "business as usual" for countless businesses if you can't fill movie theaters and restaurants and food courts etc as you did before.
But likely ther advice to work from home as much as possible is going to stand until next year.
Yep, very likely, and I suspect there will be many business that go "Gee, my business is still running with people working from home. So why am I renting all this office space?" Smart businesses will review the way they have employees work.
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The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet.
One of the data problems is how deaths are reported. So many countries seemingly openly admitting that people are counted regardless of whether it actually caused their death or not.
And accuracy here is important because it sets the zestiest in the public mind of how dangerous this is compared with others seasonal flu's. That then permeates through society and ultimately impacts government policy.
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Yep, very likely, and I suspect there will be many business that go "Gee, my business is still running with people working from home. So why am I renting all this office space?" Smart businesses will review the way they have employees work.
Our CEO said much the same thing. Also a few of our big customers, particularly civil service and government had been saying, "You CAN'T possibly work from home or your own office, we want your staff here dammit!"... well they changed their tone quickly and all those barriers came crashing down.
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And accuracy here is important because it sets the zestiest in the public mind of how dangerous this is compared with others seasonal flu's. That then permeates through society and ultimately impacts government policy.
The data is not fit for purpose if you want to answer those questions. The UK for example is still only testing those who get admitted to a ward and have to be tested so they know which ward. So the current death rate for covid-19 positives on the UK data is massive. Like 30%! Nobody, understandably, seems that bothered with tracking recoveries either.
The UK has started to test medical staff finally. This has revealed a few shocks with 50% of one particular A&E (emergency room) staff testing positive.
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I don't know if it's a good idea or not.
The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet. We don't have accurate health outcome statistics (it has turned into a political shit show) or accurate testing available. Now we get to the plateau of deaths and then the question is: now what? There is actually no way to prove causality between the lockdown and the outcome.
You are wrong here. There is lots of data and virologists use advanced models (which include virus mutation, seasonal influences, mortality, etc, etc) to create reasonably accurate best and worst case predictions of how an outbreak progresses. Just be patient. Lock down is only phase 1 which won't be in effect very long.
I suggest you look deeply into the models used here. Our modelling is actually based on one guy who uses a fully undocumented computer model and refuses to explain it to anyone because he's too busy. No shit. Go do some research. It's a proper shit show.
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The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet.
One of the data problems is how deaths are reported. So many countries seemingly openly admitting that people are counted regardless of whether it actually caused their death or not.
And accuracy here is important because it sets the zestiest in the public mind of how dangerous this is compared with others seasonal flu's. That then permeates through society and ultimately impacts government policy.
Indeed.
I'll cut and paste the problems we have here from another post
I think we need to look at it rationally at the moment. The statistics we are recording here are absolutely not meaningful or useful as they stand and serve only to make the situation sound worse than it currently is. This is being leveraged by the press somewhat and the governments and being relatively poorly extrapolated by our universities into a set of wild assumptions. Granted wild assumptions are the only places we go but presenting them as fact and policy is somewhat disingenuous. Some problems with our recording:
1. We have no antibody tests that are viable therefore we don't have any "numerator" for the total deaths per infection.
2. We're not recording people who left hospital after recovery believe it or not.
3. We're not even recording the actual health outcomes, just the deaths. Not everything kills you even if it messes you up badly.
4. The recording method they use doesn't actually have a causal relation to the mortality as such. If someone comes in after crashing a motorbike, tests positive for covid-19 even if asymptomatic or if the test is contaminated (a big problem apparently!) then they get lumped in with the death statistics.
5. A lot of the statistical outliers are actually reported heavily on such as younger deaths. These are sad but inevitable. My nephew died from the flu a few years back as an example much to the surprise of everyone who wrote it off as "just flu".
6. The current infection testing is a snapshot of the status quo.
7. Some of the mortality risks are amplified by our handling of it and outcome of "viral load" which overwhelms the immune system.
Alas we have no idea what the outcome is going to be and the data we have is mostly trash. We are unfortunately a reactionary experiment at the moment and there's no exit plan other than "now what?" really. We are 12 months off on a vaccination and we don't know what the mortality statistics are, we have no viable testing and damage to society from the side effects from the reaction may outnumber the immediate deaths over a decade span. I suspect the "now what?" is we either burn everyone or some of us and let it run.
But, so far, all risks adjusted against what data we have, the mortality risk is literally just doubling your base line chance of dropping dead at the age you are. Still not desirable but at the end of the day considerably better than the statistics may suggest. But it's stil a shit show. If we have 10x the deaths we have now, which would be ugly, that still only represents a death rate of 0.79% as an end game. We lose 0.91% of our population every year at the moment as well from normal death as a comparison. 10% I doubt it will be.
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Actually keeping the social distancing up until there is a vaccine (or even better: a remedy against people's lungs filling up with fluid) is a very good idea. Most of the world is going to do just that. I don't see what is funny about it.
It's funny because here the police have said these extreme social distancing enforcement powers will not extend beyond 90 days. Yet the NSW premier says they will remain in force "until a vaccine is found".
We aren't talking about voluntary schemes here, we are talking about the current draconian measures were police are fining people for just sitting isolated in a park or in their car, and you aren't allowed to leave your house without a "valid reason".
You can't spend another year or two enforcing such draconian laws, that would be beyond ridiculous. And even if restrictions are eased, the social distancing thing will become all but a joke because it's not compatible with getting businesses back and running.
Take gyms as but one example, are they going to have to force people to use every 2nd machine for the next couple of years? What about group classes? Do you limit the numbers to a quarter and everyone spaces out in the same sweaty room for an hour. Yet the human petri dishes that kids are are allowed back to school to mingle every day 5 days a week?
What about churches and other places were people congregate?
At some point it just gets silly trying to enforce any social distances laws. Sure you can advice to limit where possible, but it enforce it as law will become pointless.
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He did mention that they were mid planning the "2.0" for the company direction and the fact the company is still thriving while the building is completely closed down has made them change their minds on a lot of things.
Yep, this will be the start of countless companies like this re-evaluating their needs.
This could even likely impact commercial realestate as companies down-size offices in the next few years.
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Actually, right now the recovery data for the UK is saying "N/A", which removes the chart showing recoveries versus fatalities. Which was horrible to look at if you didn't realise the data is skewed.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/)
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What is happening right now is getting shops and factories modified so people can work and keep a distance at the same time. Together with rigorous testing and tracking apps that should be enough to control the outbreak while returning to a business as usual situation.
It is not "business as usual" for countless businesses if you can't fill movie theaters and restaurants and food courts etc as you did before.
Not unless people get creative. For example: going to a restaurant at different times so there isn't a single peak. Same for movie theaters. If you go to a movie a couple of weeks after it has been released you have the entire theatre for yourself. I don't have the exact numbers but it wouldn't surprise me that by spreading the people over a longer period movie theatres can still get a similar revenue on average. With people working from home and not being tied to office hours this could work well.
But likely ther advice to work from home as much as possible is going to stand until next year.
Yep, very likely, and I suspect there will be many business that go "Gee, my business is still running with people working from home. So why am I renting all this office space?" Smart businesses will review the way they have employees work.
Yeah. I already told my youngest son -as a joke- that 'his' school has rented the building to shelter refugees. 8) For sure the last people opposed to working from home are getting shock treatment right now.
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The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet.
Doesn't one hope for the best but plan for the worst?
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The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet.
Doesn't one hope for the best but plan for the worst?
Yes. But that depends mostly on the definition of worst which is not necessarily the immediate body count.
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Actually keeping the social distancing up until there is a vaccine (or even better: a remedy against people's lungs filling up with fluid) is a very good idea. Most of the world is going to do just that. I don't see what is funny about it.
It's funny because here the police have said these extreme social distancing enforcement powers will not extend beyond 90 days. Yet the NSW premier says they will remain in force "until a vaccine is found".
We aren't talking about voluntary schemes here, we are talking about the current draconian measures were police are fining people for just sitting isolated in a park or in their car, and you aren't allowed to leave your house without a "valid reason".
What about churches and other places were people congregate?
At some point it just gets silly trying to enforce any social distances laws. Sure you can advice to limit where possible, but it enforce it as law will become pointless.
Well, laws need to be a bit flexible. Over here everyone is allowed to go where they want (the border between NL and Germany isn't closed for example) but the police is actively checking whether people don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd) and keep their distance. Popular places (like parks) get closed down if necessary. This works well without turning the country into a police state. The NL government calls it an 'intelligent lockdown'. In general people seem to adhere to the rules so managing those that don't is doable.
Churches and gyms can also spread people over the day. Modern technology like apps can help to allow people to plan a visit.
However the people depending on tourism are going to be hit hard. I don't see a way around that especially in places where they have to rely on foreigners.
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The thing that gets me is there isn't enough data to draw any conclusions yet.
Doesn't one hope for the best but plan for the worst?
There will be movies, documentaries, millions of YT videos, academic articles, pop songs, books, old wives tales and folklore for a century to come... that's even something worse happens next year.
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But that depends mostly on the definition of worst which is not necessarily the immediate body count.
It's a Y2K thing again. Beat it with decisive and robust action and everyone questions what the issue was. Could be worth reading this article (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account) from The Grauniad, which notes that we in the UK are now suffering what we saw as horrific over in Italy and Spain because we didn't act soon enough in a robust enough way. The problem here is that we can't hold back and see what it's going to do because by the time that's apparent it's too late to do anything about it. It's not a question of is the cure worse than the disease, it's a question of how much we want to bet on an unknown risk level. And we are playing with people's lives, not money or fame or anything.
Intellectually a few hundred thousand dead isn't that big of a deal when you look at the world population (although that's now, with everyone scared shitless enough to take precautions - what would it be if we weren't?). But this is what separates us from animals, isn't it? That we value someone's life more than anything else. Even those old folks who have lost their minds and don't know what's going on, who have serious underlying issues as well, we take care of them and let them die in dignity when, intellectually and monetarily, it would surely be better to off them as soon as they become a net resource sink.
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But that depends mostly on the definition of worst which is not necessarily the immediate body count.
It's a Y2K thing again. Beat it with decisive and robust action and everyone questions what the issue was. Could be worth reading this article (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account) from The Grauniad, which notes that we in the UK are now suffering what we saw as horrific over in Italy and Spain because we didn't act soon enough in a robust enough way. The problem here is that we can't hold back and see what it's going to do because by the time that's apparent it's too late to do anything about it. It's not a question of is the cure worse than the disease, it's a question of how much we want to bet on an unknown risk level. And we are playing with people's lives, not money or fame or anything.
Intellectually a few hundred thousand dead isn't that big of a deal when you look at the world population (although that's now, with everyone scared shitless enough to take precautions - what would it be if we weren't?). But this is what separates us from animals, isn't it? That we value someone's life more than anything else. Even those old folks who have lost their minds and don't know what's going on, who have serious underlying issues as well, we take care of them and let them die in dignity when, intellectually and monetarily, it would surely be better to off them as soon as they become a net resource sink.
Every old person is someone's parent, uncle, or aunt - means something to someone's life. E.g. my grandmother had a lot of influence on me when I was a kid/ teenager. She was just calmer and more far seeing than my parents, and I found she often made more sense... Experience and wisdom is underrated these days.
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Every old person is someone's parent, uncle, or aunt - means something to someone's life. E.g. my grandmother had a lot of influence on me when I was a kid/ teenager. She was just calmer and more far seeing than my parents, and I found she often made more sense... Experience and wisdom is underrated these days.
True but at some point old people are also clever enough to understand that resuscitation and/or being put on a ventilator is not going to make their quality of life better - if they make it-. A couple of days ago I read an article saying many old people are sending DNR / do not ventilate statements to their doctors.
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Churches and gyms can also spread people over the day. Modern technology like apps can help to allow people to plan a visit.
Hardly anyone is going to do that, and you can't enforce it legally, and no business is going to want to enforce it themselves because they know it will limit patronage.
Gyms for example are almost always fit around peoples work/life schedules, e.g. 9:30am classes is the Yummy Mummy hour after they drop the kids off at school. Lunch time classes are work break, 5:30pm-7:00pm is after work etc. These thing won't magically change much.
Churches are Sunday group affairs, always have been always will be, you won't change that.
Bottom line is life has to return to pretty much "normal", and it has to do so fairly quickly whether people like it or not.
People thinking there will be some radical permanent "new normal" are delusional. People are creatures of habit and they will return.
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However the people depending on tourism are going to be hit hard. I don't see a way around that especially in places where they have to rely on foreigners.
Hardest hit by far.
And they are saying international travel restrictions will remain in place until the end of the year and I can believe that, as that's a "no brainer" political decision.
It may also be scheduled, like say essential business travel only before then, but once the flood gates open people will pour back into travel because it will be so cheap.
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Doesn't one hope for the best but plan for the worst?
There will be movies ...
Agreed, that is definitely going to be the worst. :(
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However the people depending on tourism are going to be hit hard. I don't see a way around that especially in places where they have to rely on foreigners.
Hardest hit by far.
And they are saying international travel restrictions will remain in place until the end of the year and I can believe that, as that's a "no brainer" political decision.
Yep. And some countries/regions particularly depend on tourism. This is going to be a complete disaster for them.
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Churches and gyms can also spread people over the day. Modern technology like apps can help to allow people to plan a visit.
Hardly anyone is going to do that, and you can't enforce it legally, and no business is going to want to enforce it themselves because they know it will limit patronage.
Gyms for example are almost always fit around peoples work/life schedules, e.g. 9:30am classes is the Yummy Mummy hour after they drop the kids off at school. Lunch time classes are work break, 5:30pm-7:00pm is after work etc. These thing won't magically change much.
Over here they are allowing a limited number of people inside shops to adhere to governments rules. Works pretty well and it is enforced legally. The same can work for gyms, etc. And don't forget: people who work from home can create their own schedule. They are no longer bound to a '9 to 5' rythm. From a biological standpoint there is no rule which says humans (like to) work best from 9 to 5.
People thinking there will be some radical permanent "new normal" are delusional. People are creatures of habit and they will return.
IMHO you are underestimating the flexibility of people. Sure there will be a very vocal minorty shouting that everything used to be better in the past.
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People thinking there will be some radical permanent "new normal" are delusional. People are creatures of habit and they will return.
I agree. But people thinking/talking about a "new normal" should also ask themselves what they really wish for.
Many are talking about a "better" world with more reasoned economy, less waste, less pollution, less globalization.. all of which seem pretty unlikely past a short-term situation, but that may sound "nice".
What they are consistently omitting though is that the only permanent change, if there is any (which I have no clue about at this point), for the "new normal", is likely to be one of the most severe dent in individual freedom that humankind has ever experienced (excepting slavery). In that regard, I certainly do hope things are going to get back to "normal". If the new normal is to all live in bubbles linked to a giant virtual network, no thanks.
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If the new normal is to all live in bubbles linked to a giant virtual network, no thanks.
We already were. It's just that reality has much higher definition.
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Tourism can return, but there will be safeguards e.g. thermal cameras at airports. Greece had these c. 10 years ago when another epidemic was going on. That takes out a good % of people, because nearly all people will still otherwise travel when ill. They don't want to lose the money. This was hugely evident in Feb/Mar in the Alpine ski scene, when so many still travelled even when an imminent shutdown was obviously likely, and the lack of action on their return spread the virus nicely.
Then there are likely to be test certificates, which may be acceptable if done say within past week. And an immunity certificate will be even better.
The incentive to set this up will be massive. A number of European countries get tens of % of GDP from tourism.
Tourism is not the only thing here. Even going to a gym or fitness classes is a massive infection spreader. The establishments will need to do something otherwise most of their clients will drop out. Classes can be run (and already are) over video but a gym can't :)
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Tourism can return, but there will be safeguards e.g. thermal cameras at airports.
This is nothing new, so we can look at history. During SARS, and swine flu, and bird flu, and MERS IR thermometers and cameras were widely deployed at borders and transport interchanges. They continued to be used after the epidemic went away, but as they aged and failed they were not replaced. So, COVID-19 appeared, and everyone had to re-equip as fast as they could.
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I agree. But people thinking/talking about a "new normal" should also ask themselves what they really wish for.
Many are talking about a "better" world with more reasoned economy, less waste, less pollution, less globalization.. all of which seem pretty unlikely past a short-term situation, but that may sound "nice".
What they are consistently omitting though is that the only permanent change, if there is any (which I have no clue about at this point), for the "new normal", is likely to be one of the most severe dent in individual freedom that humankind has ever experienced (excepting slavery). In that regard, I certainly do hope things are going to get back to "normal". If the new normal is to all live in bubbles linked to a giant virtual network, no thanks.
My grandparents grew up during the great depression and from what I remember them saying, the experience shaped an entire generation and made an impression that lasted the rest of their lives. I think there will certainly be permanent shifts after all this, well as permanent as anything is. It would not surprise me if it all but ends hugging in social situations (fine by me, I hate getting hugged by friends) and severely curtails old customs like shaking hands. Those who know someone who dies are probably going to get a more lasting impression than those who don't.
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We are on the verge of easing restrictions here.
They will likely stage restrictions, but even then conflicts will remains. For example, if you re-open shops and restaurants then that also forces them to remove the two persons congregating in public rule etc.
But yeah, they have said "social distancing" is likely to remain for the rest of the year. But then how do the handle say restaurants and movie theaters? Do you only allows two people per seat/table separated by X distance. What about food court chairs?
It starts getting ridiculous very fast, and we have already had many examples of police abusing their powers for stupid simple things. They can't keep this up for another year, people will just start to ignore any rules eventually. At the moment it's this novel thing (I'm here are week!), give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.
I think there are many compromises that can be made, and places like restaurants I would expect will largely do them voluntarily in order to prevent another forced shutdown. For example they could reduce the number of tables temporarily, remove every other booth table for example, allow groups like families that fit at one table to come in but don't do large group gatherings. As we shift into summer in this region outdoor seating becomes an option at many restaurants and then having something like an attendant who sanitizes door handles and restroom fixtures immediately after use can go a long way toward mitigating the risk.
There is a very large range between "the old way" and the total lockdowns we have today. It's too bad we didn't have the foresight to take such actions ahead of time.
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Another thing to consider is that many people are going through a mourning process due to the sudden change. Seeing any upside is hard in such a condition.
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Bottom line is life has to return to pretty much "normal", and it has to do so fairly quickly whether people like it or not.
That assumes this will end. It won't - this particular pandemic will, but there will be another. And other things - 3 months ago a nuke exchange seemed a possibility 'but not really'. Now, those disaster movies aren't just fiction any more but really happen. We would be reckless if we didn't prepare more, whether that's maintaining central stockpiles at levels they should be, not firing the people that work out what to do and how to do it when there's a disaster, or just putting aside an extra can of beans each week. It's going to be that way at least until the current generation get to be old fuddies doing things their grandkids think silly, just like we don't really appreciate why our old folks keep the skin on carrots and save stale bread, etc.
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Ugh back to the original subject, my ADSL has just started getting wonky. Fun week ahead working from home for me! Starting to look at 4G backup options...
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Ugh back to the original subject, my ADSL has just started getting wonky. Fun week ahead working from home for me! Starting to look at 4G backup options...
Funny you mentioned that. I have 4G backup on my ADSL and it's been switching back and forth for last few weeks. Some of the infrastructure was damaged when there was earthquake in Zagreb some time ago, and 4G backup worked great. Had Internet whole time, seamlessly, while main Internet provider was repairing network, switching between primary and backup sites....
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Yeah it's a good idea to sort out. Need to work out how to set it up so I have 4G but the kids don't if the WAN peer goes down otherwise they'll end up routing netflix down it or something :-DD
Can get an 80Gb SIM for £20 a month here which is good enough for my needs.
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Yeah it's a good idea to sort out. Need to work out how to set it up so I have 4G but the kids don't if the WAN peer goes down otherwise they'll end up routing netflix down it or something :-DD
Can get an 80Gb SIM for £20 a month here which is good enough for my needs.
Mikrotik router ...Firewall zones, multiple access points, QOS, throttling... It has it all..
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That's exactly where I am :-DD. Looking at their hAP ac unit. 5GHz, 4G via USB etc.
Is RouterOS a complete piece of shit or is that an unfounded rumor?
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That's exactly where I am :-DD. Looking at their hAP ac unit. 5GHz, 4G via USB etc.
Is RouterOS a complete piece of shit or is that an unfounded rumor?
Nope. Cisco lovers are just jealous..
It has less bugs that our Cisco core routers.. :-DD
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It's not hard to have less bugs than a Cisco (particulary fucking 5525's which are giving me a right arse ache with IPsec) :-DD
Network plan time 8). Thanks for the feedback
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We are on the verge of easing restrictions here.
They will likely stage restrictions, but even then conflicts will remains. For example, if you re-open shops and restaurants then that also forces them to remove the two persons congregating in public rule etc.
But yeah, they have said "social distancing" is likely to remain for the rest of the year. But then how do the handle say restaurants and movie theaters? Do you only allows two people per seat/table separated by X distance. What about food court chairs?
It starts getting ridiculous very fast, and we have already had many examples of police abusing their powers for stupid simple things. They can't keep this up for another year, people will just start to ignore any rules eventually. At the moment it's this novel thing (I'm here are week!), give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.
I think there are many compromises that can be made, and places like restaurants I would expect will largely do them voluntarily in order to prevent another forced shutdown. For example they could reduce the number of tables temporarily, remove every other booth table for example, allow groups like families that fit at one table to come in but don't do large group gatherings. As we shift into summer in this region outdoor seating becomes an option at many restaurants and then having something like an attendant who sanitizes door handles and restroom fixtures immediately after use can go a long way toward mitigating the risk.
There is a very large range between "the old way" and the total lockdowns we have today. It's too bad we didn't have the foresight to take such actions ahead of time.
I think most restaurants don't have much margin at the best of times so reducing the number of seats might make them unviable
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Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.
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Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.
Theme parks are based on keeping people in queues as much of the time as possible. As long as they rework the queuing areas to have family groups with 2m gaps between them they'll be fine. ;)
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Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.
Well we might have to adjust what is considered viable for a while. Prices may have to be higher, staff might have to be fewer, building rents might have to be lower. People can find a way to adapt, none of these problems are insurmountable.
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Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.
In addition to what james_s wrote: think about what the average seating rate is of a restaurant during the day. Spread the people better during the day and the problem is solved. During Christmas many restaurants have 2 or even 3 time slots to have dinner. The same system can be applied.
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Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.
In addition to what james_s wrote: think about what the average seating rate is of a restaurant during the day. Spread the people better during the day and the problem is solved. During Christmas many restaurants have 2 or even 3 time slots to have dinner. The same system can be applied.
Rush hour traffic, congested restaurants, and many other of the time wasters of modern life stem from the obsession most businesses still have with the 9 to 5 paradigm. Line workers need to follow the same hours, but less and less modern employment is like that. Break the paradigm, and much crowding would disappear.
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I wonder how the few drive-in movie theaters remaining are doing? Surely they could be operating still, the 1950s drive-in movie and diner options are ideally suited for the current situation.
One of the things I've always liked about the tech industry and my current job in particular is the flexible hours. I need to be around for the meetings and stuff but otherwise if I want to take the afternoon off and work from 1am to 9am nobody is going to care as long as the work gets done.
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Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.
In addition to what james_s wrote: think about what the average seating rate is of a restaurant during the day. Spread the people better during the day and the problem is solved. During Christmas many restaurants have 2 or even 3 time slots to have dinner. The same system can be applied.
lots of restaurants already try to spread out people by offering discounts for being early.
Spreading it out is also likely to need more staff hours a big expense.
no matter what it isn't going to be easy
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I think you guys are rebuking something I didn't say. If the income isn't greater than the cost of running business they close. A theme park makes money on tickets, food, and merchandise. They don't care if you stand in a line, that makes them no money.
Also consider the people who can afford to go out less and less. It's great we're all able to work from home or have plenty of money to live on regardless of not being paid but there are a lot who aren't. The ROI is very important for property and if that number goes too low or negative you may be forced to get rid of it. Some large companies may be able to pick it up in hopes they can make money but others won't and everyone renting will be pushed out
Property isn't always a money maker which is why you want many to offset the poorer ones that you bet will come up. Profit for businesses is another necessary. Nobody will run these if they can't afford to live on the profits. Theaters, restaurants, theme parks, retail stores... None are going to be hugely profitable without massively raising prices at which point patronage will drop too. Inflation is going to hurt a lot of people regardless of when this ends. Theaters, restaurants and retail stores are often independent or franchises. They're not really backed by some huge company that may or may not be able to weather the storm
I wonder how the few drive-in movie theaters remaining are doing? Surely they could be operating still, the 1950s drive-in movie and diner options are ideally suited for the current situation.
One of the things I've always liked about the tech industry and my current job in particular is the flexible hours. I need to be around for the meetings and stuff but otherwise if I want to take the afternoon off and work from 1am to 9am nobody is going to care as long as the work gets done.
Considering drive in churches have to sue to stay open I'm betting not well.
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Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.
In addition to what james_s wrote: think about what the average seating rate is of a restaurant during the day. Spread the people better during the day and the problem is solved. During Christmas many restaurants have 2 or even 3 time slots to have dinner. The same system can be applied.
lots of restaurants already try to spread out people by offering discounts for being early.
Spreading it out is also likely to need more staff hours a big expense.
I don't think so. If you are in a restaurant early (like Dutch people tend to do when they visit more southern countries in Europe where they eat later) you'll notice that restaurants manage the people to be there just in time. As more customers start to fill the restaurant you'll see more staff members arriving. Less customers at once means less staff at once. It is simple as that. Restaurants are not paying people to twiddle their thumbs; that isn't going to change.
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Also consider the people who can afford to go out less and less. It's great we're all able to work from home or have plenty of money to live on regardless of not being paid but there are a lot who aren't.
I think this is one of the key points that is overlooked. The massive over reaction shutting down the economy has put a lot of people out of work, many not on government salaries but with jobs are looking at an uncertain further and possibly reduction in pay. People are not going to have the same disposable income and along with increases in prices even for basics like food and housing many of these businesses will not be profitable and they will not be replaced.
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Over here they are allowing a limited number of people inside shops to adhere to governments rules. Works pretty well and it is enforced legally. The same can work for gyms, etc. And don't forget: people who work from home can create their own schedule. They are no longer bound to a '9 to 5' rythm. From a biological standpoint there is no rule which says humans (like to) work best from 9 to 5.
Most people do not work from home and will not in the future. Things aren't going to be that radially different. Yes some business will realise work form home isn't that bad and will move a bit in that direction. But I'm willing to bet that in a few years time when this has all blown over, the world will on average look and work very little different to what it did 3 months ago.
Do you have kids?If not then you likely won't understand why a lot of the daily/weekly routines exist.
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I think you guys are rebuking something I didn't say. If the income isn't greater than the cost of running business they close. A theme park makes money on tickets, food, and merchandise. They don't care if you stand in a line, that makes them no money.
Also consider the people who can afford to go out less and less. It's great we're all able to work from home or have plenty of money to live on regardless of not being paid but there are a lot who aren't. The ROI is very important for property and if that number goes too low or negative you may be forced to get rid of it. Some large companies may be able to pick it up in hopes they can make money but others won't and everyone renting will be pushed out
Property isn't always a money maker which is why you want many to offset the poorer ones that you bet will come up. Profit for businesses is another necessary. Nobody will run these if they can't afford to live on the profits. Theaters, restaurants, theme parks, retail stores... None are going to be hugely profitable without massively raising prices at which point patronage will drop too. Inflation is going to hurt a lot of people regardless of when this ends. Theaters, restaurants and retail stores are often independent or franchises. They're not really backed by some huge company that may or may not be able to weather the storm
So adapt. Like I said, things may need to change. Rents will need to come down, the cost of eating out may go up, people will have less money yes, nobody is disputing this, it's going to take a very long time for things to get back into another boom again. That doesn't mean all is lost though, that doesn't mean restaurants have to stop being a thing. People still want to go out to eat, even with massive unemployment there are still many, many millions of people who are still employed and there is pent up demand. Even before the crash somebody from rural middle America would absolutely balk at the cost of running a restaurant or other business in downtown Seattle or Manhattan, they might say it's impossible to make a living doing that and yet people do.
Things are grim but the ship has nut sunk yet. It seems many people have a tendency to just throw up their hands in despair and give up. Others get creative and find a way to keep going. Adapt, change, do things differently, look at things from a different perspective and stay afloat.
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In some cases trying to adapt can help, in other cases the adaptation is getting rid of a failing investment. There are multiple areas in the US where food banks are failing because too many people are already falling back on them.
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I think this is one of the key points that is overlooked. The massive over reaction shutting down the economy has put a lot of people out of work, many not on government salaries but with jobs are looking at an uncertain further and possibly reduction in pay. People are not going to have the same disposable income and along with increases in prices even for basics like food and housing many of these businesses will not be profitable and they will not be replaced.
It hasn't been overloooked, we are keenly aware of it and it sucks. At one point I agreed that it was an overreaction but since then it has become obvious that it is not. Look at what's happening in the US, we are now far out in the lead in the number of infections and I believe we are now the world leaders in Covid deaths and this is despite the lockdowns. New York in particular is a mess right now. Yes the shutdown is brutal and yes if it goes on too long it will throw us into a massive depression but some drastic action was necessary. Here in the Seattle area we were on trajectory to quickly run out of ventilators which would have forced the sort of triage process that happened in Italy but we managed to avoid this and "only" 500 or so people have died in this state so far. Mind you there are 50 states so 500 in each one would still be 25,000 deaths and the numbers are still increasing. The shutdown is a bit like using chemotherapy to kill cancer, you just have to hope the cancer dies out before the chemo kills the whole body.
We certainly need to get people back to work soon but it needs to be done very carefully, perhaps everyone possible should have protective gear and new protocols. If we are careless about the process it could be the equivalent of taking antibiotics and stopping as soon as you feel better instead of continuing the full prescription, the bacteria can regroup and take over again, this time stronger and more resistant.
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The rebooting of economy in phased manned is the only option. Moreover, we need to adapt and learn how to fight the epidemics and keep the economy running.
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It hasn't been overloooked, we are keenly aware of it and it sucks. At one point I agreed that it was an overreaction but since then it has become obvious that it is not. Look at what's happening in the US, we are now far out in the lead in the number of infections and I believe we are now the world leaders in Covid deaths and this is despite the lockdowns. New York in particular is a mess right now. Yes the shutdown is brutal and yes if it goes on too long it will throw us into a massive depression but some drastic action was necessary.
Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
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Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
Other countries are not Switzerland, it is a tiny nation with a very homogeneous population. The USA has more than 575 times the land area with almost 40 times the population, it's is a network of semi-autonomous states with a highly diverse population of widely varying regional cultures and a narcissistic man-child for a leader. We got caught with our pants down and were utterly unprepared, it was a real eye opener, I had no idea just how unprepared we were. Some of the individual state leaders have shined during this catastrophe while much of the federal government flails helplessly and says something different each day.
I can't really speak for what is happening in other nations, we've got our hands full here and I try not to be the stereotypical American sticking my nose in everyone elses business. Just as what works for Switzerland may not work for us, what works for us may not work for you.
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Death numbers....
People are dying, lots of people. Real people with families, lives, dreams. Saying they would die anyway from <insert statistic> is cold, dark, psychopathic.
The spread...
It spreads faster and further than any seasonal cold or flu. It kills more. Without any restrictions or social distancing it would be spreading even faster. Speculate all you want.
Over running hospital systems...
See comments on "Millennium bug syndrome." Also, see Italy. See Spain. Remember the US is behind them by a few weeks. The US data has been marching steadily upwards. This is NOT over.
Government, power, partisan bullshit...
What the US do with their power, narcissist toddler leader and "FREEDOM!"[tm] capitalism is up to them. Good luck.
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You guys are now spewing politics, whether you admit it or not. Keep it up and this thread will get locked too. Is that your goal?
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Fair point. I nuked my post above.
Back to working from home and internet problems. Today I get told the ISP is having to refer this to OpenReach who have a 2 week lead time at the moment on broadband issues at best. :palm:. So 95 disconnects in the last 24 hours. So it looks like there's a demand problem on this infrastructure. I have backup 4G from my phone for now.
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You guys are now spewing politics, whether you admit it or not. Keep it up and this thread will get locked too. Is that your goal?
Thread cleaned up.
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Over here they are allowing a limited number of people inside shops to adhere to governments rules. Works pretty well and it is enforced legally. The same can work for gyms, etc. And don't forget: people who work from home can create their own schedule. They are no longer bound to a '9 to 5' rythm. From a biological standpoint there is no rule which says humans (like to) work best from 9 to 5.
Most people do not work from home and will not in the future. Things aren't going to be that radially different. Yes some business will realise work form home isn't that bad and will move a bit in that direction. But I'm willing to bet that in a few years time when this has all blown over, the world will on average look and work very little different to what it did 3 months ago.
Do you have kids?If not then you likely won't understand why a lot of the daily/weekly routines exist.
I have kids for over 2 decades. The youngest is getting on-line lessons. I've also been working from home for nearly a decade. The only reason to adhere to a strict schedule is when people really need to work together on the same item at the same time. Now think hard of where that is really really true. In the end the answer is likely meetings and team sports.
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Over here they are allowing a limited number of people inside shops to adhere to governments rules. Works pretty well and it is enforced legally. The same can work for gyms, etc. And don't forget: people who work from home can create their own schedule. They are no longer bound to a '9 to 5' rythm. From a biological standpoint there is no rule which says humans (like to) work best from 9 to 5.
Most people do not work from home and will not in the future. Things aren't going to be that radially different. Yes some business will realise work form home isn't that bad and will move a bit in that direction. But I'm willing to bet that in a few years time when this has all blown over, the world will on average look and work very little different to what it did 3 months ago.
Do you have kids?If not then you likely won't understand why a lot of the daily/weekly routines exist.
I have kids for over 2 decades. The youngest is getting on-line lessons. I've also been working from home for nearly a decade. The only reason to adhere to a strict schedule is when people really need to work together on the same item at the same time. Now think hard of where that is really really true. In the end the answer is likely meetings and team sports.
There's also the element of "random conversation by the water cooler" that can be quite important...
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Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
I'm not exactly sure that Switzerland is a shining example. For a tiny country with a tiny population (8.6M) they still have 26,000 cases. I'm pretty sure if you do the math, you'll find the infection rate per 1000 people is higher in Switzerland than it is in the USA (which isn't exactly a example of how to do things).
Countries that have adopted early, wide-spread stay at home orders have done much better.
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Half my family is Swiss. And they'd be quite happy to piss on the graves of people from another canton. Never use the Swiss as an example for anything other than being pricks as a whole.
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Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
I'm not exactly sure that Switzerland is a shining example. For a tiny country with a tiny population (8.6M) they still have 26,000 cases. I'm pretty sure if you do the math, you'll find the infection rate per 1000 people is higher in Switzerland than it is in the USA (which isn't exactly a example of how to do things).
Countries that have adopted early, wide-spread stay at home orders have done much better.
Nonsense. It is general knowledge that the infection numbers say nothing because they depend on the amount of testing done. And not every country is testing to the same extend. The number of hospitalisations is a much better indicator but still doesn't paint a complete picture.
Just be prepared that social distancing and working from home is going to be the norm for at least another year.
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Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
I'm not exactly sure that Switzerland is a shining example. For a tiny country with a tiny population (8.6M) they still have 26,000 cases. I'm pretty sure if you do the math, you'll find the infection rate per 1000 people is higher in Switzerland than it is in the USA (which isn't exactly a example of how to do things).
Countries that have adopted early, wide-spread stay at home orders have done much better.
Nonsense. It is general knowledge that the infection numbers say nothing because they depend on the amount of testing done. And not every country is testing to the same extend. The number of hospitalisations is a much better indicator.
The number of deaths is probably the most serious indicator... there is a time lag, of course.
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Nonsense. It is general knowledge that the infection numbers say nothing because they depend on the amount of testing done. And not every country is testing to the same extend. The number of hospitalisations is a much better indicator.
You're right about that. It's still very hard to get useful numbers as to the number of infected people in most countries.
Also, we need to take a look at the numbers on a larger time frame. Published day-to-day numbers vary a lot depending on many factors and do not reflect any trend per se, they mainly reflect how each country reports them. And it's not an easy task.
As to Switzerland and the number of cases over the total population, the figures are available. Switzerland has a total of 2,997 cases/per 1 million people, which is actually higher than Italy. But Switzerland also has a ratio of tests/1M people of 22,993 - one of the highest ratios.
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Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
I'm not exactly sure that Switzerland is a shining example. For a tiny country with a tiny population (8.6M) they still have 26,000 cases. I'm pretty sure if you do the math, you'll find the infection rate per 1000 people is higher in Switzerland than it is in the USA (which isn't exactly a example of how to do things).
Countries that have adopted early, wide-spread stay at home orders have done much better.
Nonsense. .....
OK, you don't like testing numbers, how about fatalities ?
Switzerland is still not a shining example; with infection and death rates higher than the USA. Saying it's nonsense is just stupid
Deaths:
Switzerland 1,162, population 8.6M = 135/M
USA 23,709, population 328M = 72/M
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That's exactly where I am :-DD. Looking at their hAP ac unit. 5GHz, 4G via USB etc.
Is RouterOS a complete piece of shit or is that an unfounded rumor?
Nope. Cisco lovers are just jealous..
It has less bugs that our Cisco core routers.. :-DD
Also has less functions. Which is fine if you can cope with that. I can't.
Anyway. Anyone been hit with systematically horrible net connectivity as a consequence of WFH?
Edit: Yes, bd139, I saw your example.
I sat in on an informal meeting with people from all the big ISPs in Sweden, as representative for the TV company where I work. We've seen increases in work-day loads in Sweden, but the peaks still are in the evenings, so we're not running hot anywhere, except, of course, the russians at our largest Internet exchange, but they've been flatlining their connections the last 10 years.
I understand that southern Europe's been another level of crazy. When Telecom Italia opens for settlement-free peering with anyone, you know there's a crisis and a biggun' at that... To get an Oceanic perspective on that; it's as if Telstra whould start giving things away...
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The only problem we’ve seen from people is actually their WiFi to their home offices being shit. It’s difficult to get from a problem of “outlook doesn’t work” to “your WiFi is shit because you’re 20m away from the lowest bidding router you could get with three large kitchen appliances between you and it”. Then when you mail them an Ethernet cable it turns into a nightmare from hell getting them to set that up. Usually because they break the tab off the RJ45 and it spends all day falling out. Or they’ve got 11 kids on Netflix 4K on virgin media and contention galore.
Most issues are human.
Incidentally my internet connection is ok as of 12:00 today. I suspect there was an exchange issue.
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That's exactly where I am :-DD. Looking at their hAP ac unit. 5GHz, 4G via USB etc.
Is RouterOS a complete piece of shit or is that an unfounded rumor?
Nope. Cisco lovers are just jealous..
It has less bugs that our Cisco core routers.. :-DD
Also has less functions. Which is fine if you can cope with that. I can't.
Anyway. Anyone been hit with systematically horrible net connectivity as a consequence of WFH?
Edit: Yes, bd139, I saw your example.
I sat in on an informal meeting with people from all the big ISPs in Sweden, as representative for the TV company where I work. We've seen increases in work-day loads in Sweden, but the peaks still are in the evenings, so we're not running hot anywhere, except, of course, the russians at our largest Internet exchange, but they've been flatlining their connections the last 10 years.
I understand that southern Europe's been another level of crazy. When Telecom Italia opens for settlement-free peering with anyone, you know there's a crisis and a biggun' at that... To get an Oceanic perspective on that; it's as if Telstra whould start giving things away...
You seem to confuse us with Internet backbone providers for western Europe. :-DD
Mikrotik has large subset of Cisco functions, and 100% of all the functions you would ever need in small business and home environment.
Catalyst 9600 Series switches are a bit too much for my home network.. ^-^
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Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
I'm not exactly sure that Switzerland is a shining example. For a tiny country with a tiny population (8.6M) they still have 26,000 cases. I'm pretty sure if you do the math, you'll find the infection rate per 1000 people is higher in Switzerland than it is in the USA (which isn't exactly a example of how to do things).
Countries that have adopted early, wide-spread stay at home orders have done much better.
Nonsense. .....
OK, you don't like testing numbers, how about fatalities ?
Switzerland is still not a shining example; with infection and death rates higher than the USA. Saying it's nonsense is just stupid
You are still trying to compare apples with oranges. That is the nonsense part in your posting. This is not some kind game. Projected deaths for the US are currently somewhere between 60k and 80k by August this year. The Corona virus has not dissapeared by then. The bottom line is that the majority of the world's population will become infected at some point. Depending on the measures a country takes this will go faster or slower. When slowed down enough fewer people will die due to lack of medical care. But don't take my word for it: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/what-matters-april-8/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/what-matters-april-8/index.html) Read what the (real) experts say. And they say social distancing is going to be necessary for a very long time. It is not like you can social distance for a few weeks and go back to normal. It doesn't work that way.
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I wonder how the few drive-in movie theaters remaining are doing? Surely they could be operating still, the 1950s drive-in movie and diner options are ideally suited for the current situation.
There's a drive-in theater about a five minute drive from my house. It's currently closed. I would have thought the owners would close the snack bar but keep the theater open, but that's not the case--the whole operation is closed for the duration. I don't know if this was a choice on the part of the owners, or a government mandate. Even with the snack bar closed, people tend to get out of their cars and mingle, so perhaps this had some effect on the decision to close.
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There are 50 states in the USA, and most of them individually have the size, population, economies and governments of countries, and most of the major health decisions are actually being made at the state level, not the federal level. Comparing any individual country in Europe to the USA is like comparing any state in the USA to the entirety of Europe. You're taking a single entity and comparing it to the average of a large collection of entities. Simply not a fair comparison, even if you manage to adjust for virus timelines in progress somehow. Now if you want to compare to individual states, that's another matter. Looking at cases per million population, Switzerland (population 9 million, 2997 cases/million) is doing WAY better than New York State (population 20 million, 10307 cases/million), and WAY worse than California (population 40 million, 624 cases/million). Not to mention that ALL the data is subject to adjustment, likely upward, as testing volume improves. Or much later simply by counting the actual death rate compared the normal death rate.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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Mikrotik has large subset of Cisco functions, and 100% of all the functions you would ever need in small business and home environment.
I work in enterprise settings, with several 100Gbit links close to full at times. Another ball game.
Catalyst 9600 Series switches are a bit too much for my home network.. ^-^
Mine too, so am only upgrading from 4948 to 4500X, to get 10GigE for a few select links, to servers and between switches... :-DD
On-topic question; what would be an established level where you'd upgrade a PNI to another provider? In normal times, that is. We're not normal now. I seem to recall 70% of capacity measured as 5 minute average being a common threshold in Sweden, and I've been told not every market think they can afford that.
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I looked at Cisco 926 ISR for personal use TBH and though hell no I'm not paying that money :-DD
Going back a few years I had a 2600 with ADSL WIC in it as my core router. Also had an Ultra 60. No longer! Can't be arsed with that shit. Give me something cheap and simple.
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There's a drive-in theater about a five minute drive from my house. It's currently closed. I would have thought the owners would close the snack bar but keep the theater open, but that's not the case--the whole operation is closed for the duration. I don't know if this was a choice on the part of the owners, or a government mandate. Even with the snack bar closed, people tend to get out of their cars and mingle, so perhaps this had some affect on the decision to close.
That seems like a poor choice on somebody's part. It would not be difficult to mandate staying in one's car unless absolutely needed such as for restroom use and have an attendant to sanitize the facilities after each use. Many of the risks can be mitigated.
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Mikrotik has large subset of Cisco functions, and 100% of all the functions you would ever need in small business and home environment.
I work in enterprise settings, with several 100Gbit links close to full at times. Another ball game.
Catalyst 9600 Series switches are a bit too much for my home network.. ^-^
Mine too, so am only upgrading from 4948 to 4500X, to get 10GigE for a few select links, to servers and between switches... :-DD
On-topic question; what would be an established level where you'd upgrade a PNI to another provider? In normal times, that is. We're not normal now. I seem to recall 70% of capacity measured as 5 minute average being a common threshold in Sweden, and I've been told not every market think they can afford that.
Unless you have SLA, it's slippery slope...
In my country, there are guidelines from national communications authorities, but generic contracts with providers are vague.. Unless you pay for SLA..
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For those in Australia waiting on parcels and regular mail there might be a delay for 5-7 days longer than normal. I just received an electricity account which is due to be paid in a couple of days, normally they give you couple of weeks to pay but this letter was posted exactly two weeks ago.
https://www.auspost.com.au/about-us/news-media/important-updates/coronavirus (https://www.auspost.com.au/about-us/news-media/important-updates/coronavirus)
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I just found out yesterday that because of the virus, the US Tax Return filing deadline was changed from April 15 to July 15. I guess I need to get out from under my rock more often.
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Over here they are allowing a limited number of people inside shops to adhere to governments rules. Works pretty well and it is enforced legally. The same can work for gyms, etc. And don't forget: people who work from home can create their own schedule. They are no longer bound to a '9 to 5' rythm. From a biological standpoint there is no rule which says humans (like to) work best from 9 to 5.
Most people do not work from home and will not in the future. Things aren't going to be that radially different. Yes some business will realise work form home isn't that bad and will move a bit in that direction. But I'm willing to bet that in a few years time when this has all blown over, the world will on average look and work very little different to what it did 3 months ago.
Do you have kids?If not then you likely won't understand why a lot of the daily/weekly routines exist.
I have kids for over 2 decades. The youngest is getting on-line lessons. I've also been working from home for nearly a decade. The only reason to adhere to a strict schedule is when people really need to work together on the same item at the same time. Now think hard of where that is really really true. In the end the answer is likely meetings and team sports.
No, it's getting kids ready, dropping them off at school, picking them up from school, getting them to swimming and soccer and *insert other events here*, lunch is roughly midday, dinner roughly the same time every night, meals need to be prepared etc etc. Regular life routines, regular as clockwork for the majority of people.
As for the likes of gyms, majority of people don't like to go at random hours, or hours dictated by some social time scheduling guidelines. They want to go to their favorite class with their favorite instructors at the most convenient times to them. Before work, lunch time break, after work etc.
Same for say movies, most people are not going to want to go at say 10am on a workday on their own, they want to go at times that fit their schedule like saturday/sunday mornings or afternoons with their family, or Thursday which is release day, or Friday night with their friends or partner.
People will want to get back to this routine as soon as possible, and the longer they aren't allowed to do that the more pissed of people are going to be. They don't want a "new normal" and will not accept it in the long term, you'll see.
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Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
I'm not exactly sure that Switzerland is a shining example. For a tiny country with a tiny population (8.6M) they still have 26,000 cases. I'm pretty sure if you do the math, you'll find the infection rate per 1000 people is higher in Switzerland than it is in the USA (which isn't exactly a example of how to do things).
Countries that have adopted early, wide-spread stay at home orders have done much better.
Nonsense. It is general knowledge that the infection numbers say nothing because they depend on the amount of testing done. And not every country is testing to the same extend. The number of hospitalisations is a much better indicator.
The number of deaths is probably the most serious indicator... there is a time lag, of course.
And the exact causes of deaths is also highly questionable. Can we please stop talking about the stats on this thread, it's about the impact on our work and business and personal lives etc.
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Over here they are allowing a limited number of people inside shops to adhere to governments rules. Works pretty well and it is enforced legally. The same can work for gyms, etc. And don't forget: people who work from home can create their own schedule. They are no longer bound to a '9 to 5' rythm. From a biological standpoint there is no rule which says humans (like to) work best from 9 to 5.
Most people do not work from home and will not in the future. Things aren't going to be that radially different. Yes some business will realise work form home isn't that bad and will move a bit in that direction. But I'm willing to bet that in a few years time when this has all blown over, the world will on average look and work very little different to what it did 3 months ago.
Do you have kids?If not then you likely won't understand why a lot of the daily/weekly routines exist.
I have kids for over 2 decades. The youngest is getting on-line lessons. I've also been working from home for nearly a decade. The only reason to adhere to a strict schedule is when people really need to work together on the same item at the same time. Now think hard of where that is really really true. In the end the answer is likely meetings and team sports.
No, it's getting kids ready, dropping them off at school, picking them up from school, getting them to swimming and soccer and *insert other events here*, lunch is roughly midday, dinner roughly the same time every night, meals need to be prepared etc etc. Regular life routines, regular as clockwork for the majority of people.
As for the likes of gyms, majority of people don't like to go at random hours, or hours dictated by some social time scheduling guidelines. They want to go to their favorite class with their favorite instructors at the most convenient times to them. Before work, lunch time break, after work etc.
IMHO you are not seeing the upsides. If you work from home then who cares at what time you work? You can go to a movie or gym in the morning or afternoon and work in the evening. Or go for a workout on Monday morning and work on Saturday afternoon. Your favorite gym instructor doesn't work during 1 hour per week (and given the circumstances the gym is likely to alter the schedule). Sure things like getting the kids ready for school and dinner still exist at fixed times but other than that working from home allows a different schedule compared to the typical 9 to 5 schedule. This is exactly what I have been doing the past decade. And it is not a random schedule; it is a schedule which fits me best given the circumstances. Your kids are likely free from school one afternoon. It could be nice to do something fun with your kids instead of working. IOW: when working from home working hours no longer exist. Freedom!
I'm not a person who likes to change routines (I score pretty good on autistic traits) but I have changed my routines due to the Covid19 virus. I don't like it but what is the alternative? Sit in a corner and be angry about it? Normally I go swimming twice a week during the cold season on (pretty much) fixed moments. But since the pools are closed I picked up cycling earlier than usual. I don't really like cycling wearing a winter jacket but I'm starting to get the hang of it (getting the thermal management right so to say). I also bought a thick wetsuit to swim in the lake nearby but somehow my wife is very against me going swimming in the lake right now (which I normally do during the summer anyway).
According to this study from Harvard we even might be facing lock downs until 2022:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793 (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793)
However I do think some countries have implemented lock downs which are way too strict. IMHO Germany and the Netherlands are implementing measures which allow enough freedom of movement to keep daily life and work going on while stopping the virus from spreading too quickly. Over here more and more shops are re-opening (with a modified interior to allow enough distance between people).
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Yes, Switzerland has not been a stellar example. Probably because our elected Leaders were afraid of the economic repercussions and also aware too late. We also have very close ties to Italy, especially the provinces most affected. It is hard to tell. Same can be said about most Western countries.
Half my family is Swiss. And they'd be quite happy to piss on the graves of people from another canton. Never use the Swiss as an example for anything other than being pricks as a whole.
Hmmm..., if anecdotal Evidence is enough for you to judge a whole people I think I will pass on anything you have to say as well. :palm:
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However I do think some countries have implemented lock downs which are way too strict. IMHO Germany and the Netherlands are implementing measures which allow enough freedom of movement to keep daily life and work going on while stopping the virus from spreading too quickly. Over here more and more shops are re-opening (with a modified interior to allow enough distance between people).
Yes, but we're currently ruining our economy with lock-downs, too. Germany is more than just car makers (which are in deep trouble, too, btw), but there's a huge amount of people in gastronomy, culture, tourism, etc) who cannot work. We'll loose most of our restaurants in a short while.
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People will want to get back to this routine as soon as possible, and the longer they aren't allowed to do that the more pissed of people are going to be. They don't want a "new normal" and will not accept it in the long term, you'll see.
Of course. And as I said already, how could they not? If this "new normal" that some are talking about is just switching to a society where you're being constantly told what to do and when you can do it, it looks a lot like home detention. Already said that, but that's currently what we are subjected to. Home detention. Even people under real home detention have more freedom than we currently do. Who would want to live like this forever? Seriously? It's mind-boggling to me that some people seem to see it as OK or even desirable. Please help me understand.
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People will want to get back to this routine as soon as possible, and the longer they aren't allowed to do that the more pissed of people are going to be. They don't want a "new normal" and will not accept it in the long term, you'll see.
Of course. And as I said already, how could they not? If this "new normal" that some are talking about is just switching to a society where you're being constantly told what to do and when you can do it, it looks a lot like home detention. Already said that, but that's currently what we are subjected to. Home detention. Even people under real home detention have more freedom than we currently do. Who would want to live like this forever? Seriously? It's mind-boggling to me that some people seem to see it as OK or even desirable. Please help me understand.
Well, you are in France where they want everyone to stay at home. Such a situation cannot continue. But there are alternatives which are just as effective and don't require people to stay inside. Over here everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd). This effectively means over here we can still do most of the things we always did.
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It is hardly can be considered OK with the country trailing China on the number of deaths and 183 deaths per million as of today.
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People will want to get back to this routine as soon as possible, and the longer they aren't allowed to do that the more pissed of people are going to be. They don't want a "new normal" and will not accept it in the long term, you'll see.
Of course. And as I said already, how could they not? If this "new normal" that some are talking about is just switching to a society where you're being constantly told what to do and when you can do it, it looks a lot like home detention. Already said that, but that's currently what we are subjected to. Home detention. Even people under real home detention have more freedom than we currently do. Who would want to live like this forever? Seriously? It's mind-boggling to me that some people seem to see it as OK or even desirable. Please help me understand.
Well, you are in France where they want everyone to stay at home. Such a situation cannot continue. But there are alternatives which are just as effective and don't require people to stay inside. Over here everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd). This effectively means over here we can still do most of the things we always did.
Confinement is not just in France, FYI. Similar situation in many countries currently. But sure this can't be lasting and will have to end (although it may very well be decided again in the future, much more frequently than it ever did.)
But that's not just what I'm talking about. I was talking about everything people put behind the term "new normal", and everything that we can suppose might be.
"everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd)."
Do you call that normal? Seriously? Do you want to live in a world in which you can't be more than 3? In which you can't get close to anyone, meaning everyone is now a potential threat to anyone else? In which you may have to ask anyone to show you a certificate before getting closer than 1 or 2 m? Seriously?
I'm sure some of you have not thought this through really well, or are just reasoning as though ALL of this was temporary (which we can all hope for really), but here we were talking about what could be *permanent* after that.
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In the UK we got sensible "guidance" first. But a lot of people ignored it completely. So they threatened enforcing it, people ignored them, so they enforced it. They were so vague we had a week of the press asking, "okay, what can I do and what can't i do?", so they just made it "easy to police"... house arrest basically.
No driving around either which confused me. If I'm alone or with members of my household, what difference does it make? I'm at more risk being stopping by the police than just going on my way.
But this is to allow the police the power to stop people congregating enmass at tourist spots and beaches in teh good whether. They claim it's to limit the dangers of breakdowns and accidents. Bullshit I say to that.
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FYI: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/14/business/14reuters-health-coronavirus-amazon-france.html (https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/14/business/14reuters-health-coronavirus-amazon-france.html)
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People will want to get back to this routine as soon as possible, and the longer they aren't allowed to do that the more pissed of people are going to be. They don't want a "new normal" and will not accept it in the long term, you'll see.
Of course. And as I said already, how could they not? If this "new normal" that some are talking about is just switching to a society where you're being constantly told what to do and when you can do it, it looks a lot like home detention. Already said that, but that's currently what we are subjected to. Home detention. Even people under real home detention have more freedom than we currently do. Who would want to live like this forever? Seriously? It's mind-boggling to me that some people seem to see it as OK or even desirable. Please help me understand.
Well, you are in France where they want everyone to stay at home. Such a situation cannot continue. But there are alternatives which are just as effective and don't require people to stay inside. Over here everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd). This effectively means over here we can still do most of the things we always did.
Confinement is not just in France, FYI. Similar situation in many countries currently. But sure this can't be lasting and will have to end (although it may very well be decided again in the future, much more frequently than it ever did.)
But that's not just what I'm talking about. I was talking about everything people put behind the term "new normal", and everything that we can suppose might be.
"everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd)."
Do you call that normal? Seriously? Do you want to live in a world in which you can't be more than 3? In which you can't get close to anyone, meaning everyone is now a potential threat to anyone else? In which you may have to ask anyone to show you a certificate before getting closer than 1 or 2 m? Seriously?
I'm sure some of you have not thought this through really well, or are just reasoning as though ALL of this was temporary (which we can all hope for really), but here we were talking about what could be *permanent* after that.
You have to seperate 2 things here:
1) Working from home: It is likely a lot of people will like this and won't return to going to the office everyday.
2) Keeping distance is not going to be a new normal. That is temporary. And yes some countries are more strict than others. Last week the weather was nice so I met with one of my swim-friends at a beach. Ofcourse we kept a 2m distance but we could still have a normal conversation. OTOH my wife and I don't go shopping together (kinda take turns) and I'm staying away from my parents and older family members just to be sure.
Edit: one addition to distancing: I'm sure this can be done in shops and restaurants too with some extra care like cleaning the chairs, tables and menus after every visitor. Tables and chairs could be covered with a disposable sleeve too. Not ideal but not impossible to do.
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How to use a CAD at home if the server and the license cannot move from the working place?
I have already tried RDP through a VPN: it's practically not usable. I guess I am doomed.
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Take a look at how some other countries like Switzerland have dealt with it. Placing everyone under house arrest is unnecessary, it's not the ONLY way. For countries that have gone that way, now the question is how do you roll it back.
I'm not exactly sure that Switzerland is a shining example. For a tiny country with a tiny population (8.6M) they still have 26,000 cases. I'm pretty sure if you do the math, you'll find the infection rate per 1000 people is higher in Switzerland than it is in the USA (which isn't exactly a example of how to do things).
Countries that have adopted early, wide-spread stay at home orders have done much better.
Nonsense. .....
OK, you don't like testing numbers, how about fatalities ?
Switzerland is still not a shining example; with infection and death rates higher than the USA. Saying it's nonsense is just stupid
Deaths:
Switzerland 1,162, population 8.6M = 135/M
USA 23,709, population 328M = 72/M
Yes, nonsense.
You are comparing time depending phenomena at different points on the time axis.
For instance till few days ago newspapers here in Italy were still writing about the rough fatality rate in Germany (a month ago at 0.38%) as a miracle while that rate had been quickly increasing and now is close to 2.7% (and still growing day after day).
This is a dynamic phenomenon and, besides that, most data are affected by various kind of errors and in some cases are even likely to be just fabricated. Even total number of tests vs. population doesn't take into account if a single person is tested multiple times (e.g. health care staff which should be tested routinely).
You'll be able to compare the performance of various countries only when this will be over and most faulty data will be corrected in some way.
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How to use a CAD at home if the server and the license cannot move from the working place?
I have already tried RDP through a VPN: it's practically not usable. I guess I am doomed.
Do what we did and courier the workstations to our staff. Then VPN in for the license only.
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Do what we did and courier the workstations to our staff. Then VPN in for the license only.
what do you mean with "courier the workstations to our staff". I cannot physically move the computer out of the working place. My boss said something like "no way, the computer must stay here", and I cannot move the license over the internet because it's "node-locked" rather than floating-license and offered by a server that can be reached via a VPN link from home.
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And the exact causes of deaths is also highly questionable. Can we please stop talking about the stats on this thread, it's about the impact on our work and business and personal lives etc.
Well, you closed the general thread about Covid-19.
You also closed the thread about what was good about Covid-19. It almost seems you are afraid of discussion about certain topics (one of my posts there even got deleted because of a joke, I mean... you are in Australia, how close is it to China?
What's the point of having a General Chat if you make topics taboo?
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Do what we did and courier the workstations to our staff. Then VPN in for the license only.
what do you mean with "courier the workstations to our staff". I cannot physically move the computer out of the working place. My boss said something like "no way, the computer must stay here", and I cannot move the license over the internet because it's "node-locked" rather than floating-license and offered by a server that can be reached via a VPN link from home.
Well he's an idiot then. You can show him this comment as well if you want.
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How to use a CAD at home if the server and the license cannot move from the working place?
I have already tried RDP through a VPN: it's practically not usable. I guess I am doom
...
I cannot physically move the computer out of the working place. My boss said something like "no way, the computer must stay here", and I cannot move the license over the internet because it's "node-locked" rather than floating-license and offered by a server that can be reached via a VPN link from home.
Is it a Dell server with iDRAC by any chance? That would probably help if the problem is heavy graphics (hardware encoding handles that with ease), not so much if the problem is network latency.
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Do what we did and courier the workstations to our staff. Then VPN in for the license only.
what do you mean with "courier the workstations to our staff". I cannot physically move the computer out of the working place. My boss said something like "no way, the computer must stay here", and I cannot move the license over the internet because it's "node-locked" rather than floating-license and offered by a server that can be reached via a VPN link from home.
Apparently, your boss likes their computers more than they like their employees doing meaningful work.
I only had to unpack my laptop as I was called by my boss and told to stay home, so for me it was very easy. I also pioneered the concept of "managing complex broadcast networks from home" last winter, so it was more like slipping into same old shoes again. Not all staff, though, did have a portable computer, so the support dept. has been kept busy provisioning computers to people, but everyone that can WFH does that now. Since we're a TV company, some of us need to be in the studio, and since we've come up with a number of new shows (and fat rerun programs) for all those people stranded at home we have work cut out for us.
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Do what we did and courier the workstations to our staff. Then VPN in for the license only.
what do you mean with "courier the workstations to our staff". I cannot physically move the computer out of the working place. My boss said something like "no way, the computer must stay here", and I cannot move the license over the internet because it's "node-locked" rather than floating-license and offered by a server that can be reached via a VPN link from home.
have you tried talking to the supplier of the software? I'm sure most of them a willing to score some cheap points by being helpful with a temporary license or similar
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Do what we did and courier the workstations to our staff. Then VPN in for the license only.
what do you mean with "courier the workstations to our staff". I cannot physically move the computer out of the working place. My boss said something like "no way, the computer must stay here", and I cannot move the license over the internet because it's "node-locked" rather than floating-license and offered by a server that can be reached via a VPN link from home.
Well he's an idiot then. You can show him this comment as well if you want.
He's not necessarily an idiot. If the CAD in question in something like silicon design, companies have huge problems trying to maintain security with their databases. There is a thriving market for stolen silicon IP.
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We have another extra two weeks off school it seems:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-confirms-date-nsw-students-will-return-to-school-classrooms-20200416-p54ka4.html (https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-confirms-date-nsw-students-will-return-to-school-classrooms-20200416-p54ka4.html)
Doesn't mean you can't send your kids at the normal start time, they will take them, but most schools will follow the 'gumnit guidelines.
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Looks like we will be in the same boat here.
If the government lift restrictions next week from the current “Level 4” to “Level 3” they still want kids to be home schooled if possible.
Parents who have to go to work will be able to send their kids to school.
We will find out on Monday if the restriction level is to change on the proposed date of midnight next Wednesday.
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Oh no, Banksy working from home :-DD
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8223057/Banksy-reveals-latest-rat-infested-masterpiece.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8223057/Banksy-reveals-latest-rat-infested-masterpiece.html)
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Do what we did and courier the workstations to our staff. Then VPN in for the license only.
what do you mean with "courier the workstations to our staff". I cannot physically move the computer out of the working place. My boss said something like "no way, the computer must stay here", and I cannot move the license over the internet because it's "node-locked" rather than floating-license and offered by a server that can be reached via a VPN link from home.
Well he's an idiot then. You can show him this comment as well if you want.
He's not necessarily an idiot. If the CAD in question in something like silicon design, companies have huge problems trying to maintain security with their databases. There is a thriving market for stolen silicon IP.
There are products that will basically be remote monitor and keyboard, in a sandbox. You still work on your work computer, remote terminal on steroids..
You can only take a photo of a screen with camera, which you can anyways.
Those that need better security than that, need to be on site....
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Those that need better security than that, need to be on site....
Reminds me of the rooms on the software engineering floors in banks. The rooms you must be in with the door locked to access certain data. Though I think it's more of an SEC rule thing.
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Those that need better security than that, need to be on site....
Reminds me of the rooms on the software engineering floors in banks. The rooms you must be in with the door locked to access certain data. Though I think it's more of an SEC rule thing.
Could be just general banking security regulations. Most people don't know how good IT security in banks is.. In last 10 years it got pretty advanced...
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Could be just general banking security regulations. Most people don't know how good IT security in banks is.. In last 10 years it got pretty advanced...
:-DD
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I was about to post that. They're about 5 years behind everyone else on everything.
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Is it a Dell server with iDRAC by any chance? That would probably help if the problem is heavy graphics (hardware encoding handles that with ease), not so much if the problem is network latency.
yes, the GPU does the most of the work; however when the computer is remotely used via RDP then the latency between when I move the mouse and when I see the reaction is so long that my productivity goes below zero.
I am trying to convince my boss to let me bring the workstation home because Autodesk is not helping with any "temporary" floating-license.
Otherwise, I will have to physically go to work.
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I was about to post that. They're about 5 years behind everyone else on everything.
Not here.. We have pretty stringent laws in Croatia, enforcing security and business continuity at level that are pretty advanced.
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I was about to post that. They're about 5 years behind everyone else on everything.
Not here.. We have pretty stringent laws in Croatia, enforcing security and business continuity at level that are pretty advanced.
We have the same here. Most of it is easy to explain away with paperwork :)
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I am trying to convince my boss to let me bring the workstation home because Autodesk is not helping with any "temporary" floating-license.
are you sure? https://adsknews.autodesk.com/views/covid-19
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yes, the GPU does the most of the work; however when the computer is remotely used via RDP then the latency between when I move the mouse and when I see the reaction is so long that my productivity goes below zero.
Dell iDRAC, which is hardware encoded, does not use RDP, instead it uses its own protocol. Try running a ping in the background while you try the remote desktop to see if it's a network problem (which using hardware encoding won't help) or if it's software encoding not able to keep up with heavy graphics.
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So this is today's office...
(https://i.imgur.com/Z2w3mlt.jpg)
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Wish it was like that here. Overcast and horrible.
In the interests of getting outside and detached from the situation I was going to attempt to cook myself something on the trangia in the garden but I'm not fancying it raining on my head now :-DD
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Dell iDRAC
There is no iDRAC. It's not a Dell, but it's a Windows10 Workstation, and the best I can do is RDP.
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Good photo editing mate :clap:
but we all know UK weather isn't like that ;D
So this is today's office...
(https://i.imgur.com/Z2w3mlt.jpg)
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Good photo editing mate :clap:
but we all know UK weather isn't like that ;D
The UK wheater can be like that. But only for 1 day a year!
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Good photo editing mate :clap:
but we all know UK weather isn't like that ;D
All that picture really shows is its not raining. Even the UK has days like that. It was 2C in the morning here in York a day or two ago, but it looked just like paulca's picture.
This used to be my office some days. Much nicer. No risk of noisy neighbour's kids disturbing your work. Far from the madding crowd, yet just a short walk from refreshments.
(https://www.ddeck.com.hk/icms2/ICMServlet/download/103-8058-10794/Frisbee-4.jpg)
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Looks like we will be in the same boat here.
If the government lift restrictions next week from the current “Level 4” to “Level 3” they still want kids to be home schooled if possible.
Parents who have to go to work will be able to send their kids to school.
We will find out on Monday if the restriction level is to change on the proposed date of midnight next Wednesday.
Even in our current lockdown they have not closed the schools (but we are on normal school holidays at the moment), you can still send your kinds if you need to.
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All that picture really shows is its not raining. Even the UK has days like that. It was 2C in the morning here in York a day or two ago, but it looked just like paulca's picture.
I've only been to the UK once, but 9 of the 10 days I spent in Manchester it was gorgeous and sunny, the day I went home the clouds rolled in and it got stormy. That was late September and I gather it was quite unusual but it was a nice first impression.
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I've only been to the UK once, but 9 of the 10 days I spent in Manchester it was gorgeous and sunny, the day I went home the clouds rolled in and it got stormy. That was late September and I gather it was quite unusual but it was a nice first impression.
On a dry day Manchester has a huge give away to its true nature. Just look how green everything is. It takes a lot of water to achieve that, and it doesn't come from a massive river flowing through the area, in the way that Hanoi is made super green by the massive Mekong River.
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Even in our current lockdown they have not closed the schools (but we are on normal school holidays at the moment), you can still send your kinds if you need to.
Australia have not been as harsh as New Zealand.
We are feeling the pain nationally.
Our dishwasher blew up last Friday. I have repaired it a couple of times in the last 15 years, but this time the fire on the controller board was classed by me as irreparable.
The new one arrived this morning. If the shops had been open on the day it failed I could have had a new one that day. Oh well, a week of hand washing dishes never killed anyone AFAIK.
On the flip side – I have been working from home for the last three and a half weeks.
I am actually enjoying it.
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On a dry day Manchester has a huge give away to its true nature. Just look how green everything is. It takes a lot of water to achieve that, and it doesn't come from a massive river flowing through the area, in the way that Hanoi is made super green by the massive Mekong River.
Well Western Washington where I'm from is known as "The Evergreen State" for similar reasons. I felt quite at home in Manchester, the houses looked different, transformers and motors sounded weird, even riding passenger in a car was a bizarrely disorienting experience and I became oddly aware of my own accent but aside from that it felt quite familiar.
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Our dishwasher blew up last Friday. I have repaired it a couple of times in the last 15 years, but this time the fire on the controller board was classed by me as irreparable.
The new one arrived this morning. If the shops had been open on the day it failed I could have had a new one that day. Oh well, a week of hand washing dishes never killed anyone AFAIK.
Can you find a used one? I've never actually paid for a dishwasher before. The one I've been using for the past decade was free and it was brand new, I got it from someone who bought a house and decided they wanted all new stainless appliances. I've snagged dishwashers for a few family members that were being given away due to minor faults that were easily repaired.
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Can you find a used one? ...
In the current circumstances that would be frowned upon by the authorities.
We are only allowed to leave our homes for the following:
Singular excercise - walking alone in your neighbourhood only.
Going to the supermarket to get food.
Going to a pharmacy or seeking other medical help.
Going to work, only if you work for an approved essential service.
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Well I didn't necessarily mean right now, although I think acquiring a replacement dishwasher could be argued as essential. At least here plumbing and electrical is classified as such, and businesses catering to the trades. You could pick it up from the driveway and pay online or something. No need to cuddle on the sofa with the seller.
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Can you find a used one? ...
In the current circumstances that would be frowned upon by the authorities.
We are only allowed to leave our homes for the following:
Singular excercise - walking alone in your neighbourhood only.
Going to the supermarket to get food.
Going to a pharmacy or seeking other medical help.
Going to work, only if you work for an approved essential service.
If any big brudder bullies pull you over, just tell them you are on a supermarket crawl for dunny paper
Chances are they were too, and decided to earn their pay by pulling you up
If they are nice about it and sort of fess up to having no choice in playing along with the C game,
tell them where there is dunny paper in stock
The few good cops around are an asset to the community :-+
and remember that it's only the police and criminals that have guns.
Well that's how it is here in pants down defenseless gun robbed Australia.
If some armed creeps hit on the front door, the only options are handing over all your cash and DSO/s
or undocumented deployment of gardening and cordless power tools :-*
OTOH five or six Dobermans might mean having to eat less to keep them fed,
but good viewing in a failed home invasion
and the payoff comes upping the proceedings and aftermath on Youtube
i.e. the dogs pay for themselves after one unauthorized visit, and totally legit afaik
Hmmm.. 8)
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...although I think acquiring a replacement dishwasher could be argued as essential...
Yes, it is classed as essential, but not visiting someone elses home to get it.
Problem is that it had to be shipped from Auckland to Nelson and freight is struggling at the moment.
The store I would normally buy from would deliver, but didn't have the model I wanted in stock, hense delivery from Auckland.
Oh, and I am not going to bother with a reply to Electro Detective...
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What difference does it make whether you pick it up from a home or a store? The average home probably has a lot fewer people passing through than even a small store.
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What difference does it make whether you pick it up from a home or a store?
The average home probably has a lot fewer people passing through than even a small store.
Most of the white goods stores and most every other store limit the amount of people going in,
i.e. one goes out one comes in, 2 out 2in etc
and limits on how many allowed in an isle, as well as markers to keep queued people at a distance at checkout counters etc
You can buy/sell used stuff, just don't shake hands,
pass cash in an envelope or direct bank transfer beforehand,
DIY load up, and drive off..
How hard is that ? :-//
wearing gloves and mask throughout the entire transaction is a must, :phew: whether you believe in this latest fear flu scaredemic or not :popcorn:
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I'm in Northern Ireland. It goes like this...
Winter - raining
Spring - raining
Summer - raining
Autumn - raining
Last year we had summer... on a Tuesday.
CovID-19 lock down - SUNNY, SUNNY, SUNNY, 17+*C.
It will probably be sunny all lock down and then go straight to raining if/when we get let out again.
But while getting bread and milk out amongst the zombies I managed to snaffle two disposable BBQs. So I'm having BBQ'd sirloin and pepper for lunch on my own today :)
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wearing gloves and mask throughout the entire transaction is a must, :phew: whether you believe in this latest fear flu scaredemic or not :popcorn:
I just keep my distance, hold my breath if I get close and don't touch my face until I get back in the car and wash my hands and face with alcohol sanitiser. Then I come home, sanitise the car steering wheel and gear knob, go in the house, wash my hands, unpack the shopping wash my hands again. I "should" sanitise the shopping packaging, but I tend not to unless I'm like lifting something immediately to eat.
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I licked my packages clean for a week and got this over with before the hospital capacity issues kicked in. :-DD
(99% certain I have had covid-19)
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Our government has an online remedy for everything but no application for common sense. ::) :o
::) https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-14/coronavirus-app-government-wants-australians-to-download/12148210 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-14/coronavirus-app-government-wants-australians-to-download/12148210)
:o https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-17/paul-kelly-coronavirus-tracing-app/12158854 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-17/paul-kelly-coronavirus-tracing-app/12158854)
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(99% certain I have had covid-19)
The test is simple:
Put your nose deep into an aged organic waste bin.
If you smell nothing it's covid-19.
This is one or my customers from Munich reported me..
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Yes that’s about right. Had that. Also ridiculously high temperature for a week and the cough of doom. Fortunately not enough doom to get me. The lack of taste was horrible. Coffee and chocolate tasted like snarfing an ash tray for a week.
As for the app, NHS here are pressuring Google and Apple to break their APIs and they said “nope” :-DD
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IIRC it's been calculated that, in order to be effective, a contact tracing app would have to be installed on about 80% of smart phones in order to be effective. For some reason, the idea wasn't then immediately abandoned.
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Insta-death-march. That's why :)
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I think it's a good idea, but the implementation will be doomed. Especially if it's a government project.
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I'm not sure it's even a good idea myself. The opportunities for it to go wrong are larger than the ones where it may go right :)
Managed to lift some free Cisco kit on the way to the skip so the earlier comments about Cisco vs Microtik is solved! Got a couple of 2900 ISRs and a couple of 802.11AC AP's so home network fun time once I've worked out what I've actually got :-+. Going to stick the kids on their own VLAN and QoS them to hell, which is really the primary issue with working from home I've had so far :-DD
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The test is simple:
Put your nose deep into an aged organic waste bin.
If you smell nothing it's covid-19.
This is one or my customers from Munich reported me..
I've had chronic allergies my whole life and can't smell much under the best of conditions so I'm not sure how reliable that is. Also Covid seems to have wildly different effects from one person to the next. I had something last month that ticked a lot of boxes symptom-wise but it was very, very mild and lasted only a few days. My partner had all the same symptoms but a bit worse, and hers started and progressed about a day ahead of mine. I'll likely never know what we had. Fever, then sore throat, then turned into what felt like a cold combined with several days of being extremely tired.
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I'm not sure it's even a good idea myself. The opportunities for it to go wrong are larger than the ones where it may go right :)
Managed to lift some free Cisco kit on the way to the skip so the earlier comments about Cisco vs Microtik is solved! Got a couple of 2900 ISRs and a couple of 802.11AC AP's so home network fun time once I've worked out what I've actually got :-+. Going to stick the kids on their own VLAN and QoS them to hell, which is really the primary issue with working from home I've had so far :-DD
Yeeee! Good news. 2900 ISR should be enough.. :-DD
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Yes. However another rabbit hole I probably shouldn’t be going down :-DD
The ISRs have switch and serial modules and cables (!). Just need a VDSL EHWIC now. And there we go :-DD
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Yes that’s about right. Had that. Also ridiculously high temperature for a week and the cough of doom. Fortunately not enough doom to get me.
The lack of taste was horrible. Coffee and chocolate tasted like snarfing an ash tray for a week.
Apologies if inadvertently hosing down any C survivor thunder :( but those are bog standard common cold or generic bug flu symptoms.
Been there many times over the years, and the ash tray snarfing vibe is worse for ex-smokers,
because you get the returning urge during all that rattle headed runny nosed phlegm work, for that one last last LAST :-[ cigarette or diy rollie,
to seal the 'final' willpower deal on 'giving up forever' :horse:
The good news is your immunity levels are now higher, so little risk of catching those sniffles again for a while :clap:
nor any floating or handballed fear flu nasties that many 'misinformed' Jack and Jill newbie hypochondriacs are freaking over,
whilst under voluntary house detention
with a guaranteed 'outbreak' of unemployment and bankruptcy just around the corner, to really make them feel ill. :popcorn:
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Yep aware of that. Probably will never know if it was that or not based on the lack of progress on antibody tests as well.
Never smoked never will. My entire ash tray experience was from an acquaintance of mine who’s room smelled and looked like a volcano had exploded.
Honestly I’m rather enjoying this shit. No one is harping on about coming into the office more often (i worked from home before mostly), I have an massively unfair advantage over new home workers, the shop queues give me a few minutes to listen to some music, the pollution has gone from my street, zero unemployment risk, no school runs to do, car fuel bill has gone to nothing, spend less as a whole, no aeroplanes flying over me (live near Heathrow) and when I go out for a walk or run all you have to do is look at someone and they piss off :-DD
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..and when I go out for a walk or run all you have to do is look at someone and they piss off :-DD
Same sort of deal here too :clap: but noticed lately on cloudless sunny days, it's not me they are fleeing from,
it's their shadows chasing them ___ :scared:___ :scared:___
No shyte ;D
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[...] when I go out for a walk or run all you have to do is look at someone and they piss off :-DD
Try pretending to cough, and see what happens!! :-DD
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Haha, I went to a lab today and even with a mask on everyone stopped what they were doing and watched me after I coughed a couple times.
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Recently in Bunnings 'open' timber yard and got a face full of wood dust and floor crap from a freaky wind gust,
plus the usual healthy dose of petrol and diesel fumes from the tradies and home coronafied DIY wannabees driving in and out,
do you reckon I would dare to cough and clear my throat with all the 24/7 panic mode suckers shoppers around me,
with bored security staff nearby :=\ :=\ :=\ waiting for anything :clap: to happen to make the time pass
I wasn't in any mood for drama or explanations so I just manned up and spluttered up back in the car later, and sorted out the dust tar crap in the nose with tissues
Car windows fully wound up of course, with sun shade in place,
in case some masked idiots just happened to come past right then on the combo of 'deadly' :o cough ups and nose honks ::)
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People will want to get back to this routine as soon as possible, and the longer they aren't allowed to do that the more pissed of people are going to be. They don't want a "new normal" and will not accept it in the long term, you'll see.
Of course. And as I said already, how could they not? If this "new normal" that some are talking about is just switching to a society where you're being constantly told what to do and when you can do it, it looks a lot like home detention. Already said that, but that's currently what we are subjected to. Home detention. Even people under real home detention have more freedom than we currently do. Who would want to live like this forever? Seriously? It's mind-boggling to me that some people seem to see it as OK or even desirable. Please help me understand.
Well, you are in France where they want everyone to stay at home. Such a situation cannot continue. But there are alternatives which are just as effective and don't require people to stay inside. Over here everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd). This effectively means over here we can still do most of the things we always did.
Confinement is not just in France, FYI. Similar situation in many countries currently. But sure this can't be lasting and will have to end (although it may very well be decided again in the future, much more frequently than it ever did.)
But that's not just what I'm talking about. I was talking about everything people put behind the term "new normal", and everything that we can suppose might be.
"everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd)."
Do you call that normal? Seriously? Do you want to live in a world in which you can't be more than 3? In which you can't get close to anyone, meaning everyone is now a potential threat to anyone else? In which you may have to ask anyone to show you a certificate before getting closer than 1 or 2 m? Seriously?
I'm sure some of you have not thought this through really well, or are just reasoning as though ALL of this was temporary (which we can all hope for really), but here we were talking about what could be *permanent* after that.
You have to seperate 2 things here:
1) Working from home: It is likely a lot of people will like this and won't return to going to the office everyday.
2) Keeping distance is not going to be a new normal. That is temporary. And yes some countries are more strict than others. Last week the weather was nice so I met with one of my swim-friends at a beach. Ofcourse we kept a 2m distance but we could still have a normal conversation. OTOH my wife and I don't go shopping together (kinda take turns) and I'm staying away from my parents and older family members just to be sure.
Edit: one addition to distancing: I'm sure this can be done in shops and restaurants too with some extra care like cleaning the chairs, tables and menus after every visitor. Tables and chairs could be covered with a disposable sleeve too. Not ideal but not impossible to do.
I think you may have missed the point of what some are calling "new normal". As I said above, you seem to be reasoning as though the current changes are only going to be temporary, except for things that we can consider as positive, such as less pollution, more work at home, etc.
This looks overly optimistic, and anyway probably NOT what people willing things to get back to "normal" have a problem with. Who would be against less pollution and the ability to work at home if they so wish (as long maybe as it's not MANDATORY, because some people may actually have a problem with being FORCED to work at home if they don't like it)? OTOH, some people are fearing that some of the restrictions we are experiencing now may become permanent (of course in a lighter way as they are now, but still objective restrictions). As I said, I have no clue whatsoever what is going to happen, but from experience and what we can see now, this is not unlikely to happen at all. A very likely scenario is up to a few more months (till the end of 2020 basically as many already say), which is already a pretty long time. But it could last longer than this depending on how we manage to find a cure/vaccine, and other factors.
Now of course this may be all related to what anyone calls temporary. Even a few decades long event is temporary in the grand scheme of things... so yeah.
See how things are evolving and how what I said earlier can already be witnessed: people seeing anyone else as a potential threat. Recent posts show this. You think this is going to magically end from one day to the next?
Point is, you can't really blame anyone for not willing a "new normal", as this new normal is rather likely to be more annoying than fun for the average person. Not that there necessarily is any alternative to that, just a thought.
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Recently in Bunnings 'open' timber yard and got a face full of wood dust and floor crap from a freaky wind gust,
plus the usual healthy dose of petrol and diesel fumes from the tradies and home coronafied DIY wannabees driving in and out,
do you reckon I would dare to cough and clear my throat with all the 24/7 panic mode suckers shoppers around me,
with bored security staff nearby :=\ :=\ :=\ waiting for anything :clap: to happen to make the time pass
I wasn't in any mood for drama or explanations so I just manned up and spluttered up back in the car later, and sorted out the dust tar crap in the nose with tissues
Car windows fully wound up of course, with sun shade in place,
in case some masked idiots just happened to come past right then on the combo of 'deadly' :o cough ups and nose honks ::)
I notice people desperately trying not to clear their throats before talking. I find myself doing it, too. Could we all end up talking in a croaking style, so we never clear our throats at all? :)
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IMHO the "new normal" will be this disease becoming endemic and the medical aspect evolving in two fronts: earlier/more effective detection and cheaper/less resource-hungry treatment. Vaccines only have so much effectiveness (see flu) and at this point it would be hard to convince people to be injected with a novel and highly contagious pathogen on a fast tracked approval process.
Given that some reports are showing comparatively large amounts of asymptomatic people among the general population, and it only takes one person to re-start the process again, no amount of quarantine and isolation will ever be enough. The psychological aspects are starting to show up and some local news are starting to report higher suicide rates and domestic violence in addition to (and sometimes because of) duress caused by economy disruption.
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And in a few more generations, when the few living memories of 2020 are no longer in power, the cycle will repeat with some other event the world is unprepared for.
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People will want to get back to this routine as soon as possible, and the longer they aren't allowed to do that the more pissed of people are going to be. They don't want a "new normal" and will not accept it in the long term, you'll see.
Of course. And as I said already, how could they not? If this "new normal" that some are talking about is just switching to a society where you're being constantly told what to do and when you can do it, it looks a lot like home detention. Already said that, but that's currently what we are subjected to. Home detention. Even people under real home detention have more freedom than we currently do. Who would want to live like this forever? Seriously? It's mind-boggling to me that some people seem to see it as OK or even desirable. Please help me understand.
Well, you are in France where they want everyone to stay at home. Such a situation cannot continue. But there are alternatives which are just as effective and don't require people to stay inside. Over here everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd). This effectively means over here we can still do most of the things we always did.
Confinement is not just in France, FYI. Similar situation in many countries currently. But sure this can't be lasting and will have to end (although it may very well be decided again in the future, much more frequently than it ever did.)
But that's not just what I'm talking about. I was talking about everything people put behind the term "new normal", and everything that we can suppose might be.
"everything is OK for as long as you keep a distance and don't gather in groups (3 is a crowd)."
Do you call that normal? Seriously? Do you want to live in a world in which you can't be more than 3? In which you can't get close to anyone, meaning everyone is now a potential threat to anyone else? In which you may have to ask anyone to show you a certificate before getting closer than 1 or 2 m? Seriously?
I'm sure some of you have not thought this through really well, or are just reasoning as though ALL of this was temporary (which we can all hope for really), but here we were talking about what could be *permanent* after that.
You have to seperate 2 things here:
1) Working from home: It is likely a lot of people will like this and won't return to going to the office everyday.
2) Keeping distance is not going to be a new normal. That is temporary. And yes some countries are more strict than others. Last week the weather was nice so I met with one of my swim-friends at a beach. Ofcourse we kept a 2m distance but we could still have a normal conversation. OTOH my wife and I don't go shopping together (kinda take turns) and I'm staying away from my parents and older family members just to be sure.
Edit: one addition to distancing: I'm sure this can be done in shops and restaurants too with some extra care like cleaning the chairs, tables and menus after every visitor. Tables and chairs could be covered with a disposable sleeve too. Not ideal but not impossible to do.
I think you may have missed the point of what some are calling "new normal". As I said above, you seem to be reasoning as though the current changes are only going to be temporary, except for things that we can consider as positive, such as less pollution, more work at home, etc.
This looks overly optimistic, and anyway probably NOT what people willing things to get back to "normal" have a problem with. Who would be against less pollution and the ability to work at home if they so wish (as long maybe as it's not MANDATORY, because some people may actually have a problem with being FORCED to work at home if they don't like it)? OTOH, some people are fearing that some of the restrictions we are experiencing now may become permanent (of course in a lighter way as they are now, but still objective restrictions). As I said, I have no clue whatsoever what is going to happen, but from experience and what we can see now, this is not unlikely to happen at all. A very likely scenario is up to a few more months (till the end of 2020 basically as many already say), which is already a pretty long time. But it could last longer than this depending on how we manage to find a cure/vaccine, and other factors.
Now of course this may be all related to what anyone calls temporary. Even a few decades long event is temporary in the grand scheme of things... so yeah.
See how things are evolving and how what I said earlier can already be witnessed: people seeing anyone else as a potential threat. Recent posts show this. You think this is going to magically end from one day to the next?
Point is, you can't really blame anyone for not willing a "new normal", as this new normal is rather likely to be more annoying than fun for the average person. Not that there necessarily is any alternative to that, just a thought.
A few points:
1) I don't think a few posts from a few people here are a good measure for the paranoia level of the general public.
2) The number of people being forced to work from home while they don't want it might be equal to the number of people wanting to work from home while they where never allowed to. Likely some people who wanted to work from home end up not liking it and people who didn't want to work from home ended up liking working from home after all. In the end you can't satisfy everyone :) It's hard to predict what they outcome is going to be in the long run.
3) Temporary is likely until somewhere in 2021. But I would be surprised if the house arrest they have in place in several countries in Europe lasts longer than a couple of weeks. The effect on the economy is just to big. Some Americans don't seem to care at all about their elders and go out to protest against the lockdowns.
In general: we are cold-turkied into a new situation. Radical changes in society takes much longer when they can evolve organically. It is natural that there is friction against change but is the end result going to be really worse? Or is that just in our minds? For example: In the Netherlands we have a children's tradition called Sinterklaas which involves black Petes (people with their faces painted black). Now some people call it racist and their voices have become louder during the past decade. Due to that the black Petes are gradually changing but there are fierce & violent protests from both sides. BTW Modern day Christmas is modelled after the Sinterklaas tradition by Coca-Cola; imagine people start to claim the elves are repressed.
To all: Sorry for keeping the long post and adding relatively little but I couldn't snip anything without preserving the context.
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...Some Americans don't seem to care at all about their elders and go out to protest against the lockdowns...
I can't speak for those 'Some Americans' but will say this based on experience and observation:
The elders are more likely to cash out before their allocated time due to Corona induced STRESS, WORRY, LONELINESS and PANIC (in no particular order or context)
especially from 24/7 news media carnivals, way before any corona sniffles, current maladies, accidents due to lowered concentration, or old age expiry takes them out
I could add if their diet, fluids and meds are monitored less, or not at all due to Will waiters family neglect, carer panic/social distancing etc
this won't do them any favors either
I can only assume those 'Some Americans' are on to that too,
and well within their reasoning ability and justifiable rights to demand an immediate end to this preposterous ongoing global fear vending fiasCo
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I know several people who have had this thing now. It got pretty ugly for some of them.
The social distancing is working - R(0) has fallen drastically. The problem is - what happens as we start to interact again?
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...Some Americans don't seem to care at all about their elders and go out to protest against the lockdowns...
If you are referring to the recent protest in Michigan, careful with the Kool-Aid. People are not chest thumping "ma first amendment" (or whatever it is from the bill of rights) just for the sake of it, but instead against absolutely ridiculous measures that bear no resemblance to anything that could be effective against social isolation (lock sections of a department store? Close hardware stores? Blocking the sale of seeds? Forbid people from fishing? Really?).
A judge in a nearby county released a court order authorizing police arrest and fine if you have more than two people in your car. Also, they have to be masked. To me these people are drunk with power.
Also, New York seems to be encouraging people reporting others to the police due to social distancing and other violations. Germany was in these hot waters 80~90 years ago.
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...Some Americans don't seem to care at all about their elders and go out to protest against the lockdowns...
If you are referring to the recent protest in Michigan, careful with the Kool-Aid. People are not chest thumping "ma first amendment" (or whatever it is from the bill of rights) just for the sake of it, but instead against absolutely ridiculous measures that bear no resemblance to anything that could be effective against social isolation (lock sections of a department store? Close hardware stores? Blocking the sale of seeds? Forbid people from fishing? Really?).
A judge in a nearby county released a court order authorizing police arrest and fine if you have more than two people in your car. Also, they have to be masked. To me these people are drunk with power.
Also, New York seems to be encouraging people reporting others to the police due to social distancing and other violations. Germany was in these hot waters 80~90 years ago.
You analogy is so very wrong. It is a big mistake to underestimate the impact the Coronavirus can have. For your sake I hope you are not confronted by hospitals which are overrun with patients and are not able to provide care for everyone. Yes, some measures may look drastic but they are working. The US is behind so they can learn from all the other countries which are further along 'the curve'. I wrote it before: if there is one time to shut the f*ck up and just do as being told in your life then this is the moment. The sooner people comply, the sooner the measures can be relaxed. In the end it is up to the people themselves to do the smart thing. If not then measures will have to become more harsh and being enforced more harshly.
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...Some Americans don't seem to care at all about their elders and go out to protest against the lockdowns...
The elders are more likely to cash out before their allocated time due to Corona induced STRESS, WORRY, LONELINESS and PANIC (in no particular order or context)
especially from 24/7 news media carnivals, way before any corona sniffles, current maladies, accidents due to lowered concentration, or old age expiry takes them out
I could add if their diet, fluids and meds are monitored less, or not at all due to Will waiters family neglect, carer panic/social distancing etc
this won't do them any favors either
Those are good points and currently a source of major concern, albeit still relatively quiet, as the Covid-19 is the enemy to fight and everything else is put on hold, heavily advertised as futile and anyone mentioning them more or less seen as committing high treason.
Many people are going to die from anything else than Covid-19 during, and after this lockdown period, for various reasons including lack of, or very reduced care, high stress, etc. Those will probably be seen as indirect (and unavoidable) casualties.
There's also currently the case of schools reopening which is highly debated. But if it lasts for too long, a significant fraction of kids may become school drop-outs.
That some people are protesting is not necessarily without any sense, and when they see how the crisis was handled worldwide on average (ie.: badly), they don't have many reasons to trust authorities either at this point. It may just be the beginning, as any lasting reduction of individual freedom (as I already talked about) is likely to trigger further protest movements.
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Australia is one of the safest places at the moment. An English friend 'stranded' in Qld is not able to travel now, but I think she is in a 'better place' at the moment, than if she was back in the UK !! with their relative thousands of current deaths!!!
Australia is big. The state of Western Australia is also big! W/A is going through the SAME isolations as the rest of Australia now.
As such, W/A is divided now into 'regions' too, where travel across such inter-W/A boundaries has been stopped.
The 'thing' that we have not really heard about, is WHERE the virus has spread??? (Within W/A).
OBVIOUSLY, the major numbers will be in PERTH, (our Capital), but of all the numbers found/quoted, I can't recall any numbers quoted/found in the numerous REGIONAL areas??? We have many hundreds if not thousands of Kms to various regions of W/A. If say Bunbury/Bussleton/Margaret-River had NO cases, then 'isolation' would mean NO-ONE there WOULD!!! Bring on the vaccine! ;D
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The ban on fishing sounds ridiculous except when you dig a bit deeper it was found that a majority of people who fish travel from other parts of the state to do so, stopping at stores along the way for supplies. The issue is not the fishing, it's the traveling and it's very difficult to enforce a ban on traveling, the state does however have the power to ban fishing.
All of the requirements are there because people demonstrated that they could not be trusted to follow instructions on their own, which is the reason the US has been leading the world in infections and deaths for some time now.
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The ban on fishing sounds ridiculous except when you dig a bit deeper it was found that a majority of people who fish travel from other parts of the state to do so, stopping at stores along the way for supplies. The issue is not the fishing, it's the traveling and it's very difficult to enforce a ban on traveling, the state does however have the power to ban fishing.
All of the requirements are there because people demonstrated that they could not be trusted to follow instructions on their own,
Yes. Not specific to the US. Many of the restrictions were decided due to an inherent difficulty to enforce lighter restrictions.
which is the reason the US has been leading the world in infections and deaths for some time now.
Well, taking the numbers per 1M people, the US is not doing that bad compared to Europe.
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...Some Americans don't seem to care at all about their elders and go out to protest against the lockdowns...
if there is one time to shut the f*ck up and just do as being told in your life then this is the moment.
Thanks for the offer, but I can still think critically.
Besides, my criticism is to your sentence conflating everyone protesting as "not caring for the elders".
I am not against social distancing or staying at home unless caring for essencial tasks, but choking everyone indiscriminately in all fronts is not reasonable, neither doing surreptitious reporting to authorities. Not everyone can afford working from home or have the means to ease the psychological effects of complete isolation.
Anyways, I said my piece. Peace.
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Well...
My working hours have been shortened (in germany this is called "Kurzarbeit"), by a whopping 80%.
This was on the horzon for several week, but i would not have expected that high of a cut. I am now only working one day per week, but with the official support of the government and some additional bonus by the company i work for, i will still earn 80% of the after tax amount that i did before. Money-wise i am not that fazed by that, i do not have to drive to work anymore, and the company canteen was also not cheap. So this is not *that* much of a pay cut.
But now i have time, like a lot of time. The "Kurzarbeit" is scheduled to last the next three months...
Some of that i will use to learn a scripting language, something that will be usefull at work. Since i have backed the EEZ BB3, this will likely be Python. I gues that will be useful there as well ;)
But i am also now thinking about finally starting some electronics projects i have had running around in my mind for so damn long. Maybe i will even get around to repair my Tek 485 :p
I am running out of exuses, but my motivation is low at the moment.
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But now i have time, like a lot of time. The "Kurzarbeit" is scheduled to last the next three months...
I am running out of exuses, but my motivation is low at the moment.
To me it looks like an excellent opportunity to start a side business which could grow into a fulltime self-employed job.
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Thanks for the offer, but I can still think critically.
That is the problem right there. People think they know it better and ignore the rules. In the end this only leads to more stricter rules and more enforcement. If the government can trust people to adhere to a few simple rules then the lockdowns don't need to be that strict. By 'being clever' you only shoot yourself in the foot. The government is not the enemy; it is ignorance.
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Yes, i have thought about stuff like that.
But i think it takes a certain kind of person to be able to establish a business, let alone a successful one. And i am quite sure that i am not that kind of person.
And i actually like my current job, i like my company, and i like my coworkers. Maybe that has made me complacent, but even in the current situation i do not see the company going under. On the contrary, i see a stressfull second half of the year with a significantly increased workload.
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Thought this was a nice article.
https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492
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Thanks for the offer, but I can still think critically.
That is the problem right there. People think they know it better and ignore the rules. In the end this only leads to more stricter rules and more enforcement. If the government can trust people to adhere to a few simple rules then the lockdowns don't need to be that strict. By 'being clever' you only shoot yourself in the foot. The government is not the enemy; it is ignorance.
Government is People... and people are often Ignorant.
Authority should always be questioned, even now.
And as always the ones getting the short straw are those doing self Isolation and mostly trying to adhere to the rules. They are not really going after the really big offenders... at least here in Switzerland i.e the church goers and over protected Minorities who are treated like Children.
And that is something you only see when you go take a look out the Windows, at least where I do. I never read about it in the Media... it just sounds ugly I guess. :phew:
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That is the problem right there. People think they know it better and ignore the rules. In the end this only leads to more stricter rules and more enforcement. If the government can trust people to adhere to a few simple rules then the lockdowns don't need to be that strict.
Who says the lockdowns have to be this strict to begin with? Ok, so not a bad move back when we didn't know jack about this thing.
But let's put that behind us, now look at those lockdowns, are they the only way forward? Are they the best way forward?
Many governments are still talking months worth of lockdowns at a minimum, destroying entire economies.
Is there a better way?
Radical left field thinking here, but perhaps reallocating all the current police effort fining young and healthy people sitting on a beach or in park, to, I don't know, maybe protecting the most vulnerable?
Huge numbers of deaths have come from retirement homes and villages, have any police been allocated to protect them? Just a thought...
The thing with the lockdowns is that we'll never really know how much they contributed to the drop in cases, as there has been effectively no control group. e.g. All of Australia was pretty much locked down at once from the federal level. That makes it very convenient in terms of political liability to keep it going for as long as possible. Because at the end of all this the politicians can always say it was the lockdowns that stopped it all and it's something that we had to to have for so long to save all those lives, and there is likely going to be little to data to contest that argument. At least not on a local level.
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To me it looks like an excellent opportunity to start a side business which could grow into a fulltime self-employed job.
When economic disasters like this strike, and outside of world war times, this is already way beyond anything we have seen before, there are countless golden business opportunities for those who want to and are in a position to take advantage.
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I think you may have missed the point of what some are calling "new normal". As I said above, you seem to be 2) The number of people being forced to work from home while they don't want it might be equal to the number of people wanting to work from home while they where never allowed to. Likely some people who wanted to work from home end up not liking it and people who didn't want to work from home ended up liking working from home after all. In the end you can't satisfy everyone :) It's hard to predict what they outcome is going to be in the long run.
I'll predict it. In a couple of years time you'd be hard pressed see any difference at all in society and work from what we had 3 short months ago.
A small percentage will switch to working from home either permanently or occasionally as some businesses see the benefit of it, but I suspect that would be lucky to crack into the double digit percentage range.
Most industries will be back to normal, schools, restaurants, gyms, airplanes, large events etc. Social distancing will become a distant 2020 memory.
And this will, with any luck, likely happen whether or not a vaccine is ultimately found, as don't underestimate nature in solving this one on it's own.
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[...] i.e the church goers and over protected Minorities who are treated like Children. [...]
They are protected by their God. The rest of us have to rely on science!
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They know how the virus transmits. So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown.
It's a bit like saying "We asked people to not touch any live wires, nobody did, so nobody died.". I don't think you need a control group of people who did touch the live wires and did die.
The only reasonable way out of this is, test, track, trace. We need to find out who has it, who has had it and we need to know quickly.
However it seems that almost everything is being intercepted by the USA to the point that Germany and the UK are sending their air forces to transit PPE and other goods.
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Actually ironically. I was watching a lecture given by the UK's own governmental scientific advisor given in 2018 about pandemics and their control. It was him and his colleges who wrote the book on this. Korea, China and other countries sprung into action actually following his advice and introduced immediate and strict, test, track, isolate and lockdown. They seem to have done much better.
The UK did sod all even when Italy and Spain exploded their advice was "Wash your hands", Ireland and even Northern Ireland took more strict measures before the UK did.
Figure this, but the UK borders are still open in and out.
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They know how the virus transmits. So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown.
Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction. It's almost certainly not going to be a linear thing. e.g drop infected person onto a cruise ship with 1000 other people vs one sitting on a beach (or in an open football stadium) with 1000 other people, and the spread rate is vastly different. We have (obviously) seen this already on cruise ships.
So when it comes to the politics of where we go from here, at some point (very shortly) it's no longer going to make sense to continue to lock down beaches and large open air gatherings like say football matches. In fact there almost has to be an experiment where we open things back up and see what happens, as that will tell us a huge amount about the return spread rate. We can't hold out in full lockdown until we have zero cases in the entire country for a month.
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They know how the virus transmits. So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown.
Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction.
Agreed, but with the logarithmic graphs downward trending compared against epidemiologist predictions it would suggest the lock downs we have are working to some degree.
Anyway, the canary will be put down the mine pretty soon by the US as some states start opening beaches etc. I think we should just wait and see what happens there.
Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down.
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They know how the virus transmits. So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown.
Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction.
Agreed, but with the logarithmic graphs downward trending compared against epidemiologist predictions it would suggest the lock downs we have are working to some degree.
Absolutely no doubt they are working.
Anyway, the canary will be put down the mine pretty soon by the US as some states start opening beaches etc. I think we should just wait and see what happens there.
Yes, someone has to do it.
I'd argue that Australia is a great place to do it. Nearing naff all daily cases, decently high testing rates, great medical system.
https://infogram.com/1pw1pepdlyzrxebv29em2p5z3nu9v5njqpq
Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down.
I haven't heard, data link?
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From the Johns Hopkins web site:
San Francisco County, California; City of San Francisco: 1157 confirmed cases, 20 deaths. Population: 4,700,000.
Minnehaha County, South Dakota; City of Sioux Falls: 1362 confirmed cases, 3 deaths. Population: 169,468.
San Francisco has extensive direct air links to places all over the world, including China. It had cases relatively early. Lot of travel. Very high density. San Francisco resembles New York much more than Sioux Falls.
Sioux Falls is on Highway 90. The nearest international airport is Minneapolis-Saint Paul in Minnesota, a 4 hour drive away.
San Francisco implemented social distancing early on.
The mayor of Sioux Falls wanted to implement social distancing of some type, but the governor of South Dakota won't do anything about it.
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Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down.
I haven't heard, data link?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52336388 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52336388)
And if you check Japan on here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)
The logrithmics are straight lines again :(
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I didn't see anything like this on the curve for Japan's number of cases? If anything, the rise seems to be slowing down a little. What did I miss?
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I didn't see anything like this on the curve for Japan's number of cases? If anything, the rise seems to be slowing down a little. What did I miss?
Well it's straight line on the log graph, but they "only" have 10k cases and only 260 deaths. Of course there is always question over the data.
EDIT: Looking at it another way, at the end of March they had like 2k cases. Now mid april they have 10k
<shurg>
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Thanks for the offer, but I can still think critically.
That is the problem right there. People think they know it better and ignore the rules. In the end this only leads to more stricter rules and more enforcement. If the government can trust people to adhere to a few simple rules then the lockdowns don't need to be that strict. By 'being clever' you only shoot yourself in the foot. The government is not the enemy; it is ignorance.
Only a socialist would argue like that and thumbed up by other socialists! History repeats it self but socialists newer learns
because they want to be in power for eternity because the KNOW BEST precisely what you just said and then went
on lecturing your socialistic know it all's. :palm:
Well you already confessed you where a socialist in another thread so there you go.
If you want to continuing your self imprisonment based on ,as we enlightened people long time knew that covid 19 test
is a fraud not testing for covid19 aparently but all starins (se PCR inventor Kary Mulles notes) the death numbers fudged
(confession by Trompets health minister and various doctors on MSM ) the CCP frauded numbers and knowledge of when
(standard science test by browns method) virus first was known etc and on and on, if you want to base your look down
on this please carry on. Good riddance!
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And now we have this going on near me:
https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/hundreds-gather-in-olympia-to-protest-gov-inslees-stay-home-orders
As if we needed more of this sort of example supporting the stereotype that Americans are stupid |O
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Don't worry. The whole human race is stupid. It's not just you :-DD
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Just have to hope they don't take too many innocent people with them.
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And now we have this going on near me:
https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/hundreds-gather-in-olympia-to-protest-gov-inslees-stay-home-orders
As if we needed more of this sort of example supporting the stereotype that Americans are stupid |O
Some people really don't have money and get upset when they're not allowed to make some. Look at it as early lockdown easing and we'll get some data on how it affects things.
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I didn't see anything like this on the curve for Japan's number of cases? If anything, the rise seems to be slowing down a little. What did I miss?
Well it's straight line on the log graph, but they "only" have 10k cases and only 260 deaths. Of course there is always question over the data.
EDIT: Looking at it another way, at the end of March they had like 2k cases. Now mid april they have 10k
<shurg>
You specifically said "Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down."
That doesn't appear to be backed up by the data, if anything, daily cases are down.
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Australian schools will be back on a staggered roster, one day a week, different grades on different days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526)
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I didn't see anything like this on the curve for Japan's number of cases? If anything, the rise seems to be slowing down a little. What did I miss?
Well it's straight line on the log graph, but they "only" have 10k cases and only 260 deaths. Of course there is always question over the data.
EDIT: Looking at it another way, at the end of March they had like 2k cases. Now mid april they have 10k
<shurg>
You specifically said "Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down."
That doesn't appear to be backed up by the data, if anything, daily cases are down.
For the umpteenth time: number of cases means sh*t because they rely on testing. Testing is erratic at best due to material shortage and test protocols. Based on anti-bodies in donated blood about 3% of the people over 18 in the NL has been infected with Covid19 which in absolute numbers come down to 500k people. The offical number of cases showed somewhere around 20k at the time the 'sample' was taken.
So far deaths are the best indication (and even those can be off by double digit percentages and there is a lag between getting infected and dying). Looking at this data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Japan) it seems Johns Hopkins' data is wrong for Japan.
Australian schools will be back on a staggered roster, one day a week, different grades on different days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526)
I expect the same is about to happen here. Many shops have been converted and are opened or about to open. Maybe gyms will open soon as well (I hope that includes the swimming pools too). In case of gyms I read that they won't allow people to shower and change though.
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Australian schools will be back on a staggered roster, one day a week, different grades on different days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526)
here today all the kids up to fifth grade started back in school etc. like normal. Some types of stores that had been forced to close were
also allowed to open again, so you can now again get a haircut, a tattoo, a massage, a beauty treatment, among other things.
Maybe it is just me but neither of those things seem very critical or easy to do while keeping a distance
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Australian schools will be back on a staggered roster, one day a week, different grades on different days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526)
One day a week... sounds weird.
Over here, they should reopen on the 11th of May as well, although the conditions have not been made clear yet.
It's likely that the partial end of confinement will be associated with measures such as mandatory wearing of masks, at least in some situations like in public transport, etc. Maybe for school teachers as well.
(Oh yeah didn't they claim masks were useless? ;D )
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Australian schools will be back on a staggered roster, one day a week, different grades on different days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526)
here today all the kids up to fifth grade started back in school etc. like normal. Some types of stores that had been forced to close were
also allowed to open again, so you can now again get a haircut, a tattoo, a massage, a beauty treatment, among other things.
Maybe it is just me but neither of those things seem very critical or easy to do while keeping a distance
The other day I had a talk with someone who does dental work. They remoddeled the waiting room (take chairs out), increased the amount of ventilation and manage the patients more strictly (no people coming along). Since the work they are doing already involves taking measures against spreading viral infections like hepatitis, HIV, etc the only thing they added as an extra protection is a full face mask.
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Australian schools will be back on a staggered roster, one day a week, different grades on different days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526)
here today all the kids up to fifth grade started back in school etc. like normal. Some types of stores that had been forced to close were
also allowed to open again, so you can now again get a haircut, a tattoo, a massage, a beauty treatment, among other things.
Maybe it is just me but neither of those things seem very critical or easy to do while keeping a distance
The other day I had a talk with someone who does dental work. They remoddeled the waiting room (take chairs out), increased the amount of ventilation and manage the patients more strictly (no people coming along). Since the work they are doing already involves taking measures against spreading viral infections like hepatitis, HIV, etc the only thing they added as an extra protection is a full face mask.
things like hepatitis, HIV spread in a very different way
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Australian schools will be back on a staggered roster, one day a week, different grades on different days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/coronavirus-return-to-nsw-school-plan-revealed/12166526)
One day a week... sounds weird.
I guess the idea is to spread the kids out around the school and also at the congested pick up and drop off point. e.g. Likely something like Years 1/6/7, 2/8, 3/9, 4/10, 5/11/12 or some such mix, or whatever mix works for each school. They are leaving it up the school to implement. But legally I don't think there is anything stopping any school from opening up fully, especially private ones. Technically the schools have not been closed here, they have just advised parents who can keep their kids at home to do so.
But ultimately it comes down to the political optics of trying to appease as many groups of people as possible.
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You specifically said "Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down."
That doesn't appear to be backed up by the data, if anything, daily cases are down.
For the umpteenth time: number of cases means sh*t because they rely on testing. Testing is erratic at best due to material shortage and test protocols. Based on anti-bodies in donated blood about 3% of the people over 18 in the NL has been infected with Covid19 which in absolute numbers come down to 500k people. The offical number of cases showed somewhere around 20k at the time the 'sample' was taken.
Do you have evidence that Japan has slowed down testing?
The data says they have not:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1100135/japan-number-of-conducted-coronavirus-examinations-by-type-of-patients/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1100135/japan-number-of-conducted-coronavirus-examinations-by-type-of-patients/)
Therefore, with testing rates not dropping and with daily cases also dropping, there seems to be zero evidence that "Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down."
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Here a reporter asked our president about liability issues pertaining to businesses re-opening in our latest covid briefing. I hope this doesn't go a place that matters. Opening 1 day a week is so odd though. Is it basically going to be come in review your work and pick up more work for the week? Can't that be done remotely?
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Therefore, with testing rates not dropping and with daily cases also dropping, there seems to be zero evidence that "Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down."
Here is Australia's current new cases vs testing. IMO this is the best and most useful way to determine what's actually happening and to base decisions on.
And this is why Australia is now starting to open things back up (beaches now open again to "exercisers" for example, plus the new decision today on schools).
When you have declining (esp from the peak) of daily cases, even if remains steady at under 50 cases per day, they were forced to act on partial re-openings.
[attachimg=1]
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[...] Do you have evidence [...]
Evidence?? That sounds a lot like hard work, in the Internet age! ::)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhRQxk9QA-o (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhRQxk9QA-o)
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Some people really don't have money and get upset when they're not allowed to make some. Look at it as early lockdown easing and we'll get some data on how it affects things.
That's totally understandable.
Gathering thousands of people into one physical place for a protest and not wearing any sort of protection is not, that's just stupid. Especially since this kind of behavior could directly lead to lockdowns being extended. If people had followed directions from the start we'd be back open by now.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhRQxk9QA-o (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhRQxk9QA-o)
That video claims that 40% of the workforce is still out there, that's huge. So much for population "lockdown".
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That video claims that 40% of the workforce is still out there, that's huge. So much for population "lockdown".
That sounds about right based on what I've seen based on freeway traffic and other things.
That's still 60% of the population that is not out there spreading things around which is substantial, and the numbers suggest it has been effective. Washington state where I live was the initial epicenter of the US infection but we locked down early and the numbers flatlined. Since then we've watched other states wait too late until numbers explode when it's too late to slow down.
You can't lock down 100%, people need food, medical care, medicine, supplies, delivery, infrastructure, etc. There's a complex supply line behind our most basic necessities, it doesn't run itself.
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That video claims that 40% of the workforce is still out there, that's huge. So much for population "lockdown".
I don't have any official figures for NZ. I will try to find some and edit this post.
However, since the last week of March (Our Level 4 lockdown), petrol stations have dropped fuel take by 80%.
This would suggest that roughly 20% of people in NZ are still at work.
That all changes on Tuesday as we loosen the grip a bit - Level 3 - still with lots of rules.
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You specifically said "Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down."
That doesn't appear to be backed up by the data, if anything, daily cases are down.
For the umpteenth time: number of cases means sh*t because they rely on testing. Testing is erratic at best due to material shortage and test protocols. Based on anti-bodies in donated blood about 3% of the people over 18 in the NL has been infected with Covid19 which in absolute numbers come down to 500k people. The offical number of cases showed somewhere around 20k at the time the 'sample' was taken.
Do you have evidence that Japan has slowed down testing?
I never claimed that. I did however provide data which contradicts the data from Johns Hopkins site (which showed the number of cases in Japan is declining where another source showed an entirely different picture). But still testing also depends on the test protocol (who gets tested). Japan has a relative low number of deaths and cases so selecting a pool of people which aren't infected can have a huge impact on the tested / versus cases ratio. In the end you have to look at the statistical relevance of the numbers (including taking the time delay between infection and developing sympthoms into account) before jumping to any conclusions. Deciding on whether it is safe or not to lift some restricting is work for experts.
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That video claims that 40% of the workforce is still out there, that's huge. So much for population "lockdown".
They claim road traffic in the UK is at around 40% of its normal level, yet the roads seem very quiet. A 60% reduction changes things a lot. I guess 40% of jobs are actually providing the essentials, like food, logistics, utilities, and medical care.
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Remember that 40% of the workforce is not 40% of the drivers. There are a significant number of non-working (in the employment sense) spouses, driving-age teenagers and students, and retired people that are also on the road during normal times.
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That video claims that 40% of the workforce is still out there, that's huge. So much for population "lockdown".
They claim road traffic in the UK is at around 40% of its normal level, yet the roads seem very quiet. A 60% reduction changes things a lot. I guess 40% of jobs are actually providing the essentials, like food, logistics, utilities, and medical care.
I wonder where they are measuring this?? - certainly round here(Suffolk) it is alot more than 60% reduction. I was in London on Saturday (picking up daughter from student halls) - no way was it a 60% reduction, much more like 80%+
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Some people really don't have money and get upset when they're not allowed to make some. Look at it as early lockdown easing and we'll get some data on how it affects things.
That's totally understandable.
Gathering thousands of people into one physical place for a protest and not wearing any sort of protection is not, that's just stupid. Especially since this kind of behavior could directly lead to lockdowns being extended. If people had followed directions from the start we'd be back open by now.
In 08/04/2020 , we made a virtual rally by youtube versus the goverment . I believe that were almost half million of views .
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My employer has been on a work at home as much as you can policy since March 18. Since then, I have maybe been "in" about 1/2 the time. I have a home lab and have been working on one project exclusively there. The other project requires going "in" to use the lab gear there. Skype meetings seem to be working OK. I went "in" this past weekend to get something from the mail room that came in. Otherwise I have not been in for a week. Most coworkers (including my supervisor) I have not seen for over a month.
Today, a memo went out that by this monday (April 27) they will be implementing a fever check at the door for anyone coming in. Also, we will be required to wear face shields most of the time unless working in a isolated spot. This will mostly apply to walking the halls or being in the lab unless by yourself. The production area and lab techs started on this policy last week but now extending to office staff (I think it took more time to get enough PPE).
This does seem a bit over the top in this area given not all that many cases locally but I expect this is a corporate wide policy and we are not the only location by far.
Business was slowing down the past few months even before this all started. I know my immediate management is trying to come up with some filler work if needed to keep everyone busy.
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That video claims that 40% of the workforce is still out there, that's huge. So much for population "lockdown".
In the UK we call them Minimum Wage Heros. But they will still be first to lose their jobs when the economy tanks.
I asked our key-worker delivery man where his maximum wage supervisor was? His response, all management are working from home over Skype. Which is not such a good thing as his team leader is trapped in self-isolation with a new baby, a kid with ADHD, no garden and crap broadband.
I'm just looking up every day at our freakish clear blue sky. From the garden. This is not normal for England.
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I'm just looking up every day at our freakish clear blue sky. From the garden. This is not normal for England.
Pollution levels are way down nearly everywhere with traffic and industry shut down. That may have something to do with it. Nice as that is, it won't last once things start up again.
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This does seem a bit over the top in this area given not all that many cases locally but I expect this is a corporate wide policy and we are not the only location by far.
Normally I'd agree, but having watched the cycle multiple times now in various areas I'm pretty convinced that it's reasonable. This thing spreads so quietly and so easily and has such a long incubation time that by the time you realize anything is wrong the shit really hits the fan and loads of people end up sick. It doesn't work to just keep doing things as usual until you start having a worrying number of sick people, by then it's too late and huge numbers have already been exposed.
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I'm just looking up every day at our freakish clear blue sky. From the garden. This is not normal for England.
Pollution levels are way down nearly everywhere with traffic and industry shut down. That may have something to do with it. Nice as that is, it won't last once things start up again.
Indeed.... but yes this is nice. It's particularly noticeable in areas that are extremely polluted of course (like in India). In some regions, people can actually see things in the landscape they had never been able to see before. Kind of sad in a way, because yes, this positive part of the crisis is likely one that is going not to last for very long, whereas other parts, like travel restriction, are likely to last a lot longer.
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This thing spreads so quietly and so easily and has such a long incubation time that by the time you realize anything is wrong the shit really hits the fan and loads of people end up sick. It doesn't work to just keep doing things as usual until you start having a worrying number of sick people, by then it's too late and huge numbers have already been exposed.
Yes. The long incubation time (up to 2 weeks, but it's suspected to be up to 3 weeks, although currently specialists think the 3-week cases are re-infection cases, but we still don't know for sure) is a major problem. It makes this virus very "sneaky" and hard to deal with, because of the long latency. And between the first symptoms and the detection, that can still be a while.
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I'm just looking up every day at our freakish clear blue sky. From the garden. This is not normal for England.
Pollution levels are way down nearly everywhere with traffic and industry shut down. That may have something to do with it. Nice as that is, it won't last once things start up again.
Indeed.... but yes this is nice. It's particularly noticeable in areas that are extremely polluted of course (like in India). In some regions, people can actually see things in the landscape they had never been able to see before. Kind of sad in a way, because yes, this positive part of the crisis is likely one that is going not to last for very long, whereas other parts, like travel restriction, are likely to last a lot longer.
Living on the East coast of Northern Ireland (Belfast Lough shore), I can usually see Scotland on a clear day. It's about 40-50 miles away. Usually it's only a soft blurry silhouette on the horizon line.
On Tuesday i looked out the window and could see much more of the coast of Scotland and beyond to the mountains behind it.
I got my old Lumix camera with a 10x optical zoom and had a quick look and could see individual buildings and ships along the coast! Though I think the ships where closer.
With the naked eye I could make out the wind turbines on some of the hills.
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It's like that in London. If you get to a high vantage point you can see much further than usual. Getting some decent photos as well as there is less ambient pollution at sunset.
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It's like that in London. If you get to a high vantage point you can see much further than usual. Getting some decent photos as well as there is less ambient pollution at sunset.
Flat Earthers will have a field day posting rubbish curve calculation videos.
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Don't give them ideas they are not qualified to process :-DD
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Don't give them ideas they are not qualified to process :-DD
Is there ANY idea they are qualified to process at all ?
I thought they just randomly generate words...
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How long do honeymooning 'Working From Home'ers think they can keep it up,
before the company eventually has no choice and gives them the boot
and or the 'niche' private work suddenly dries up or dita
and or clients can't pay and you're left holding the bills and private parts :horse:
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Well I’m on year 10 now so long time :-DD
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How long do honeymooning 'Working From Home'ers think they can keep it up,
before the company eventually has no choice and gives them the boot
and or the 'niche' private work suddenly dries up or dita
and or clients can't pay and you're left holding the bills and private parts :horse:
What connection do you see between working from home and getting the boot?
Hint: there ain't one.
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Just had a conference call with the head of delivery. He said,
"Home working is here to stay, even after this. Obviously it was always an option, but now we have proved to our clients we are fully operational with the building closed I don't see why we can't provide it as an option for all employees going forward."
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Yeah that's not going to happen here. We were just moving into a new office block in the middle of this :palm:. So they will want everyone back in after.
It's quite clear we don't need an office block though now.
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I had to go to the medical clinic today to see the GP for prescriptions, specialist referrals and a medical certificate and expected the place to be packed with people. To my surprise there is normally a two hour wait to see a doctor but the place was completely empty and I was able to be seen straight away. It turns out that it's actually a good time to be sick. ::)
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I had to go to the medical clinic today to see the GP for prescriptions, specialist referrals and a medical certificate and expected the place to be packed with people. To my surprise there is normally a two hour wait to see a doctor but the place was completely empty and I was able to be seen straight away. It turns out that it's actually a good time to be sick. ::)
Aren't some of them doing it online now somehow?
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Yeah that's not going to happen here. We were just moving into a new office block in the middle of this :palm:. So they will want everyone back in after.
It's quite clear we don't need an office block though now.
Probably a 5 year lease or something too :scared:
I'm frustrated enough with the remainder of my two year lease.
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I had to go to the medical clinic today to see the GP for prescriptions, specialist referrals and a medical certificate and expected the place to be packed with people.
To my surprise there is normally a two hour wait to see a doctor but the place was completely empty and I was able to be seen straight away.
It turns out that it's actually a good time to be sick. ::)
Hope you're keeping well :-+ but same deal here because there's hardly anyone sick enough to hit on the medical establishments
and or their newly embedded corona FEAR :scared: :scared: :scared: is keeping them self imprisoned at home,
and doing 'social distance' phone consultations instead :phew:
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Some may change their tune when long term "Impacts of Coronavirus' kick in
and companies decide it's not worth the drama weathering this unknown scaredemic, for how much longer ? :-//
and pack it in for the short or long term, or the bank makes that sudden decision for them :o
Let's see where honeymooning 'Working From Home-ites' will be in 6 weeks time, much less 6 months
..or 6 years if the usual suspects drag this out, since it's going so well for them and no competition :clap:
@ bd139, 10 years is good going mate and best of luck keeping it up :-+ but these are different times and stranger agendas afoot
that whatever the deal is going down, you can bet it won't be doing the working battlers and small business any favors, as usual :popcorn:
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Just had a conference call with the head of delivery. He said,
"Home working is here to stay, even after this. Obviously it was always an option, but now we have proved to our clients we are fully operational with the building closed I don't see why we can't provide it as an option for all employees going forward."
Nice! :-+
Not unexpected for smart businesses.
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Yeah that's not going to happen here. We were just moving into a new office block in the middle of this :palm:. So they will want everyone back in after.
It's quite clear we don't need an office block though now.
Probably a 5 year lease or something too :scared:
I'm frustrated enough with the remainder of my two year lease.
Even worse. They bought the building I think.
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Yeah that's not going to happen here. We were just moving into a new office block in the middle of this :palm:. So they will want everyone back in after.
It's quite clear we don't need an office block though now.
Same here, we moved into a new office in October. Spend 100s of thousands on it to.
There are of course team social requirements that will bring people in again to be with their team, but I expect more people will, like me work from home one or two days a week.
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Aren't some of them doing it online now somehow?
Where possible they are trying to keep the regular outpatients away from hospitals because many might now be susceptible or vulnerable in those environments. From what I have seen some of the remote consultation procedures they are trying to implement are causing more of a problem than a solution. ::)
For instance, a few days ago I received text messages from an unknown mobile number with instructions to click on a dodgy url link to verify an appointment. I had no idea what it was about so ignored it and today a nurse called to confirm a video consultation with a specialist on Monday, I told her to stop sending dodgy links to people and she apologised and said the confusion was due to their computer experts. :wtf:
The Australia Post mail delays aren't helping much either. Without a word of a lie at 14:30 today the postman delivered some letters one of which was a notice from the hospital regarding a specialists appointment scheduled for 14:00 today, I rang the hospital immediately and explained that I only just got the letter and could not attend on such short notice. :o
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I had to go to the medical clinic today to see the GP for prescriptions, specialist referrals and a medical certificate and expected the place to be packed with people. To my surprise there is normally a two hour wait to see a doctor but the place was completely empty and I was able to be seen straight away. It turns out that it's actually a good time to be sick. ::)
Depends on where you live exactly. Many doctors have just shut down and only do phone or online for the time being. Not that great depending on what your condition is.
If you're "lucky" to have a clinic nearby where you can go, that's already a lot better. Not everyone does. But the fact the place is almost empty is not particularly a good sign, as nice as it is for those who go there. It means many people are just staying home instead of getting a medical consultation they might actually need.
Over here, it has actually started being a source of concern. If I'm not mistaken, I think there has been 40% less medical consultations since the confinement for GPs and 60% less for specialists. So people not sick because of the Covid-19 are actually worse off. As to hospital consultations, of course they are severely restricted as well to emergencies basically.
So if you have a chronic and stable condition, or just something very mild, this is alright. But if you have something new which doesn't look like an emergency, but could still be concerning, ahem. Less so.
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From my own experience we have it pretty good over here health care wise. I was self employed and kept reasonably fit and healthy for over three decades and rarely if ever got sick or saw a doctor, but when I turned fifty everything failed all at once which now means I am reliant on our health system and the diligence of others. One of the most difficult aspects of being self employed and suffering serious illness is having to tell your long term loyal customers that you are no longer able to provide a service or be of assistance.
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Hope you're keeping well :-+ but same deal here because there's hardly anyone sick enough to hit on the medical establishments
and or their newly embedded corona FEAR :scared: :scared: :scared: is keeping them self imprisoned at home,
and doing 'social distance' phone consultations instead :phew:
So are you suggesting it's ok to do nothing and we'll just lock down once the exponential growth really starts climbing out of control and hospitals are filling up? What part of "that's too late" do you not grasp? Have you watched what has been happening in New York? Do you think the area where you live is somehow fundamentally different?
I thought it was overblown too but I was convinced once I started seeing the numbers grow explosively, and now I'm watching the exact same pattern happen in places all over. People blow it off because there are only a few infections, hospitals are below capacity, etc and then it blows up. Some hospitals near me were real close to having to start triaging and pulling people off ventilators when things started to flatten out, now they're finally getting under control.
Speaking as someone living in what was the epicenter of the infection of the entire nation I can say that by the time you realize you've got a problem, it's too late. You are not invincible.
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Some random ramblings about last week... a customer is hiring so I had to be part of job interviews using video conferencing. I also went to the customer's office for a face-to-face interview with one of the candidates. It was really nice to see some familiar faces in person again. Doing a job interview at a big table with the chairs far apart and taking turns to avoid crowding the room was also new.
The low amount of traffic on the road was also very welcome. Like it is holiday season. Usually I go to that particular customer by train. Looking outside the window at the traffic jam which -more or less- extends from where I live to where my custome resides. Since public transport is a no-go I went by car but without the usual traffic jams getting there was a breeze. Not saying the road wasn't busy though.
Today I went out on my bike. At some point I had to wait for a bridge which was open. Normally people would bundle up in front of the barrier (on the seperate bicycle road) but nowadays (nearly all) people wait in line so there is enough distance between everyone. Kinda interesting to experience but it is also nice to see that people adhere to the distancing rules.
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Just had a conference call with the head of delivery. He said,
"Home working is here to stay, even after this. Obviously it was always an option, but now we have proved to our clients we are fully operational with the building closed I don't see why we can't provide it as an option for all employees going forward."
I've been working from home 2-3 days a week for as long as I've been with this employer, now I'm home fulltime. Eventually I'd like to get back to going into the office a couple days a week but I dread ever having to go in every weekday. I'm really hoping that one positive thing to come of this whole mess is a lot more companies finally realizing that there's no reason to require everyone to be in the office every day, many people can work productively from home or wherever and with the tools we have available these days it's easier than ever. Commuting every single day is a waste of time. Working from home I work more hours on average yet feel less tired from it. Each day that I'm home is ~2 hours I don't spend killing time on a bus.
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Just had a conference call with the head of delivery. He said,
"Home working is here to stay, even after this. Obviously it was always an option, but now we have proved to our clients we are fully operational with the building closed I don't see why we can't provide it as an option for all employees going forward."
I've been working from home 2-3 days a week for as long as I've been with this employer, now I'm home fulltime. Eventually I'd like to get back to going into the office a couple days a week but I dread ever having to go in every weekday. I'm really hoping that one positive thing to come of this whole mess is a lot more companies finally realizing that there's no reason to require everyone to be in the office every day, many people can work productively from home or wherever and with the tools we have available these days it's easier than ever. Commuting every single day is a waste of time. Working from home I work more hours on average yet feel less tired from it. Each day that I'm home is ~2 hours I don't spend killing time on a bus.
Same here. I've been working home 3/5 for a whole while already, now it's 5/5 - we keep in touch through a chat and Jitsi.
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Yep.
One thing to be careful about though is keeping a clear distance between work and private life, which is much harder to do when you work at home.
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Other Impacts of Coronavirus:
Has Sexual Distancing come into force yet?
What are the recommended distances, procedures, protections,
and pre and post wash routines? hopefully a very watered down IPA mix :o
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Other Impacts of Coronavirus:
Has Sexual Distancing come into force yet?
What are the recommended distances, procedures,
and pre and post wash routines? hopefully a very watered down IPA mix :o
Sexual "distancing" is nothing new, it does exist ever since AIDS has been known to be a pandemic. (And other STDs of course, but when you think about it, most people didn't really care about STDs in general before AIDS, except those that got them of course.)
Of course Covid-19 adds to the mix that now you can get infected if you are closer than 1 or 2 meters. People may now be required to wear some kind of latex masks to kiss unless they have both been properly tested not infected. Fun stuff.
But just like with the advent of AIDS, it's likely that there will be an after Covid-19, and people may suddenly care about seasonal flu and even just colds, when most of them really didn't care much before that. Just a random thought. I know you were just kind of trolling.
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My wife send me a highly inappropriate video on that so I won't post it here (no, not of herself but something someone forwarded to her). 8)
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Other Impacts of Coronavirus:
Has Sexual Distancing come into force yet?
What are the recommended distances, procedures,
and pre and post wash routines? hopefully a very watered down IPA mix :o
Sexual "distancing" is nothing new, it does exist ever since AIDS has been known to be a pandemic. (And other STDs of course, but when you think about it, most people didn't really care about STDs in general before AIDS, except those that got them of course.)
Of course Covid-19 adds to the mix that now you can get infected if you are closer than 1 or 2 meters. People may now be required to wear some kind of latex masks to kiss unless they have both been properly tested not infected. Fun stuff.
But just like with the advent of AIDS, it's likely that there will be an after Covid-19, and people may suddenly care about seasonal flu and even just colds, when most of them really didn't care much before that. Just a random thought. I know you were just kind of trolling.
Apples and Weeds comparing real deal AIDS with the current corona panic fest.
i.e. no population self detention and forthcoming economic downturn/Depression was deployed to battle and control AIDS
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Other Impacts of Coronavirus:
Has Sexual Distancing come into force yet?
What are the recommended distances, procedures, protections,
and pre and post wash routines? hopefully a very watered down IPA mix :o
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-sex-guidance.pdf
Don't worry, New York City has you covered!
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Apples and Weeds comparing real deal AIDS with the current corona panic fest.
i.e. no population self detention and forthcoming economic downturn/Depression was deployed to battle and control AIDS
There was no reason to, you can't get AIDS from being in close proximity to infected people. If abstaining from casual sex was enough to prevent the spread of Covid we wouldn't have to take drastic measures to prevent that either.
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I'm quite sure we'll be seeing a large baby-boom by the end of this year.
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I'm quite sure we'll be seeing a large baby-boom by the end of this year.
And a higher than normal divorce rate as well.
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Today I walked up to the local shopping complex and one thing I noticed was almost every store has had acrylic shields installed around each cashiers station. I saw these shields installed at the local Aldi a few weeks ago and now they are everywhere. Installing these barriers would be a good little business to be in about now and probably some good money in it as well.
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yeah, nice little earner for the acrylic producing mob :clap:
and also an indicator that this corona BS is definately going to drag out for months
if not years
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Today I walked up to the local shopping complex and one thing I noticed was almost every store has had acrylic shields installed around each cashiers station. I saw these shields installed at the local Aldi a few weeks ago and now they are everywhere. Installing these barriers would be a good little business to be in about now and probably some good money in it as well.
I noticed the Australia post ones are just stuck down with doubled sided tape brackets. So capital investment would be low. Just a laser cutter, a plastic bender, and a crap ton of sticky brackets.
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Apples and Weeds comparing real deal AIDS with the current corona panic fest.
i.e. no population self detention and forthcoming economic downturn/Depression was deployed to battle and control AIDS
There was no reason to, you can't get AIDS from being in close proximity to infected people. If abstaining from casual sex was enough to prevent the spread of Covid we wouldn't have to take drastic measures to prevent that either.
Yea, but when the AIDS thing was all the rage, wondered if the 'authorities' just didn't want people to know about the possibility? of problems with Mosquitoes piercing/sucking blood, moving from person to person, could result in a transmission! (Likewise with other bugs today) ???
I also wondered about infected (from parents) children in Kindergarten wet sucking/chewing on pencils etc, before the same item gets picked up and put in the mouth of other children then?? (Sharing fluids). We need to be more vigilant, these days... :(
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Today I walked up to the local shopping complex and one thing I noticed was almost every store has had acrylic shields installed around each cashiers station. I saw these shields installed at the local Aldi a few weeks ago and now they are everywhere. Installing these barriers would be a good little business to be in about now and probably some good money in it as well.
I noticed the Australia post ones are just stuck down with doubled sided tape brackets. So capital investment would be low. Just a laser cutter, a plastic bender, and a crap ton of sticky brackets.
Our supermarkets won't pack your bags for you, but will/have-to hand SCAN your selections first!
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I noticed the Australia post ones are just stuck down with doubled sided tape brackets. So capital investment would be low. Just a laser cutter, a plastic bender, and a crap ton of sticky brackets.
Yeah, pretty straight forward job really and probably the first time somebody would be legally allowed to rob retail outlets with nothing more than a screw gun. Or as you said, stick 'em up. 8)
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The combo gas station/convenience store next to the interstate has hung an entire sheet of clear acrylic from the ceiling just above the counter. They also put some stuff in front of the counter to keep you from getting too close.
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A lot of good those acrylics will do once they soon get all filthed up and not so see-through
not to mention staff may get electrostatically zapped if running about and charged up :o
bored sugar pumped kids and teenage idiots pressing their fingers, faces and tongues on it
did I mention even more unnecessary landfill content from these in the future? :--
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Apples and Weeds comparing real deal AIDS with the current corona panic fest.
i.e. no population self detention and forthcoming economic downturn/Depression was deployed to battle and control AIDS
There was no reason to, you can't get AIDS from being in close proximity to infected people. If abstaining from casual sex was enough to prevent the spread of Covid we wouldn't have to take drastic measures to prevent that either.
Obviously.
But if I got it right, Electro Detective seems to be thinking that Covid-19 is just a scam or something. So I don't think discussing the drastic measures that have been taken is going to lead to anything fruitful anyway.
Whereas there are IMO some dark spots in the way the Covid-19 has been handled, I'm wondering what exactly is ED's point. Politicians may be lying, but I don't think thousands of hospitals worldwide would have any interest in lying as well. Or as I said, maybe he's just trolling. Who knows. :popcorn:
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Today I walked up to the local shopping complex and one thing I noticed was almost every store has had acrylic shields installed around each cashiers station. I saw these shields installed at the local Aldi a few weeks ago and now they are everywhere. Installing these barriers would be a good little business to be in about now and probably some good money in it as well.
I noticed the Australia post ones are just stuck down with doubled sided tape brackets. So capital investment would be low. Just a laser cutter, a plastic bender, and a crap ton of sticky brackets.
The acrylic shields have been installed over here too in most shops.
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Today I walked up to the local shopping complex and one thing I noticed was almost every store has had acrylic shields installed around each cashiers station. I saw these shields installed at the local Aldi a few weeks ago and now they are everywhere. Installing these barriers would be a good little business to be in about now and probably some good money in it as well.
Yup. These shields popped up here quickly as well. Some shops have more or less boxed the cashiers in which prompts me to ask the cashier whether they like their aquarium.
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Today I walked up to the local shopping complex and one thing I noticed was almost every store has had acrylic shields installed around each cashiers station. I saw these shields installed at the local Aldi a few weeks ago and now they are everywhere. Installing these barriers would be a good little business to be in about now and probably some good money in it as well.
Yup. These shields popped up here quickly as well. Some shops have more or less boxed the cashiers in which prompts me to ask the cashier whether they like their aquarium.
They probably feel safer this way. Note that those shields are nothing new - they had been already there in some banks, post offices, etc, for a long time (probably more for physical safety reasons than virus spreading).
Wearing a mask all day is much more annoying (IMO) than being behind an acrylic shield. I hate masks. But in many shops currently, cashiers have both...
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They probably feel safer this way. Note that those shields are nothing new - they had been already there in some banks, post offices, etc, for a long time (probably more for physical safety reasons than virus spreading).
Not in Australia, they were rare before this.
There was this big to-do maybe 20+ years ago now about Taxi's in Sydney (and Australia wide?) installing these perspex protective shields around the driver, I think by government mandate after some assault or something. Everyone decried it as "un-Australian", and I'm not sure how long they lasted but I haven't seen one in donkey's years.
These shields will go the same way by the end of the year.
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They probably feel safer this way. Note that those shields are nothing new - they had been already there in some banks, post offices, etc, for a long time (probably more for physical safety reasons than virus spreading).
Not in Australia, they were rare before this.
There was this big to-do maybe 20+ years ago now about Taxi's in Sydney (and Australia wide?) installing these perspex protective shields around the driver, I think by government mandate after some assault or something. Everyone decried it as "un-Australian", and I'm not sure how long they lasted but I haven't seen one in donkey's years.
These shields will go the same way by the end of the year.
Ofcourse. Over here most of the shields are clearly temporary installations. However I think it will be later than the end of the year though before the shields can go. It is wise to assume we'll be dealing with the Corona virus for another 12 months.
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Yea, but when the AIDS thing was all the rage, wondered if the 'authorities' just didn't want people to know about the possibility? of problems with Mosquitoes piercing/sucking blood, moving from person to person, could result in a transmission! (Likewise with other bugs today) ???
I also wondered about infected (from parents) children in Kindergarten wet sucking/chewing on pencils etc, before the same item gets picked up and put in the mouth of other children then?? (Sharing fluids). We need to be more vigilant, these days... :(
HIV isn't transmitted by mosquitoes and it isn't transmitted by saliva. It has to be direct contact between blood or mucus membranes. You can't catch it by sharing a glass or chewing on a pencil, it's extremely rare for it to be transmitted by anything other than sexual contact.
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But if I got it right, Electro Detective seems to be thinking that Covid-19 is just a scam or something. So I don't think discussing the drastic measures that have been taken is going to lead to anything fruitful anyway.
Whereas there are IMO some dark spots in the way the Covid-19 has been handled, I'm wondering what exactly is ED's point. Politicians may be lying, but I don't think thousands of hospitals worldwide would have any interest in lying as well. Or as I said, maybe he's just trolling. Who knows. :popcorn:
Hopefully we aren't reading another story like this about him in a few weeks/months. I can't help being a little amused by the irony.
https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/ohio-man-dies-of-coronavirus-after-calling-it-a-political-ploy.html (https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/ohio-man-dies-of-coronavirus-after-calling-it-a-political-ploy.html)
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He (the Ohio man) asked to be proved wrong and got his wish granted (RIP anyways)
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He lived a productive life if he became a lesson to other humans :-DD
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But if I got it right, Electro Detective seems to be thinking that Covid-19 is just a scam or something. So I don't think discussing the drastic measures that have been taken is going to lead to anything fruitful anyway.
Whereas there are IMO some dark spots in the way the Covid-19 has been handled, I'm wondering what exactly is ED's point. Politicians may be lying, but I don't think thousands of hospitals worldwide would have any interest in lying as well. Or as I said, maybe he's just trolling. Who knows. :popcorn:
Hopefully we aren't reading another story like this about him in a few weeks/months. I can't help being a little amused by the irony.
https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/ohio-man-dies-of-coronavirus-after-calling-it-a-political-ploy.html (https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/ohio-man-dies-of-coronavirus-after-calling-it-a-political-ploy.html)
Hopefully we aren't reading another story like The Emperor's New Clothes when we are all SOON fubar broke (the exception being insiders and paid pro dis-info agents)
and won't be amused by anything anymore,
nor feeling so smart or trusting of authorities and news media,
or proud of ones 'higher education and intelligence'
especially when your wallet's been lifted off you in broad daylight,
after ignoring the tip off that there's a new gang of robbers in suits roaming the streets
fwiw: call this 'trolling' and LOL all you like, and enjoy any short lived amusement while it's still affordable :clap:
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One thing is apparent, the lockdowns, isolation and uncertainty are certainly taking a toll on mental health.
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Yeah we’re developing quite a high secondary death toll here. I suspect it’s going to be a lot higher over time than immediate coronavirus deaths particularly as cancer care is canned for a lot of people so good outcomes turn to bad. They’ll be swept under the carpet while the politicians are labelling themselves as heroes.
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after ignoring the tip off that there's a new gang of robbers in suits roaming the streets
I can't quite grasp what your position is on this. Is it:
- There is no pandemic, or it's just like flu.
- There is a pandemic and it's serious, but the lockdowns, etc, aren't needed.
- There is a pandemic, it's serious and needs lockdowns, but the economy must come first.
And...
- Some people/corps are taking advantage of the situation.
- Some people/corps are promoting panic so that...
- ... they can take monetary advantage of the situation.
- ... they can take a controlling advantage of the situation.
- Some people/corps have engineered the situation so they can either/both the above.
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One thing is apparent, the lockdowns, isolation and uncertainty are certainly taking a toll on mental health.
Yeah, but its going to be boom time for divorce lawyers when the lockdown is lifted.
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Yeah we’re developing quite a high secondary death toll here. I suspect it’s going to be a lot higher over time than immediate coronavirus deaths particularly as cancer care is canned for a lot of people so good outcomes turn to bad.
Over here they are (re)starting regular health service to prevent that from happening. That is possible because the number of Corona patients is declining.
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Lucky. My mother had her chemo cancelled. The hospitals are pretty dead here. I reckon it's going to turn into a shit show beyond all proportion yet.
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Lucky. My mother had her chemo cancelled. The hospitals are pretty dead here. I reckon it's going to turn into a shit show beyond all proportion yet.
It already is a shit show. Have you noticed how much non-corona related deaths have risen in recent weeks?
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I don't get why chemo would be considered non-essential. Here they stopped all elective procedures, as far as I was aware something like chemo was not considered elective but I thankfully have not had a need to find out.
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I don't get why chemo would be considered non-essential. Here they stopped all elective procedures, as far as I was aware something like chemo was not considered elective but I thankfully have not had a need to find out.
My guess would be that some judgement is made on how urgent a treatment is. We are not being told the full story; it is not like urgent health care has stopped. The whole point of the lockdowns is to keep health care going for all treatments needed urgently.
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Lucky. My mother had her chemo cancelled. The hospitals are pretty dead here. I reckon it's going to turn into a shit show beyond all proportion yet.
It already is a shit show. Have you noticed how much non-corona related deaths have risen in recent weeks?
Indeed I have. I actually think the long term (10 year picture) the lockdown may have a worse body count than letting the virus do its thing. That's going to be way easier to bury in statistics when eyes are turned to the task at hand which will here will be Boris' second coming and be all of us being told to do our part through austerity to pay off the temporary concessions everyone had...
I don't get why chemo would be considered non-essential. Here they stopped all elective procedures, as far as I was aware something like chemo was not considered elective but I thankfully have not had a need to find out.
It's purely an overplanning shit show. They transferred nursing staff to covid-19 care which is a one way transfer for infection control reasons. This left the department with minimum staff. Then a couple of the staff got sick so then the department had to close. The covid-19 staff are sitting around doing fuck all most of the time because they are nowhere near capacity, despite the shite being shown on the BBC (half my family is in NHS and has confirmed it directly at three different hospitals).
For the folk outside the UK, the NHS is untouchable here after being a political pawn for decades. You can't criticise it or the staff even if there's bodies everywhere from a gigantic fuck up.
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I don't get why chemo would be considered non-essential. Here they stopped all elective procedures, as far as I was aware something like chemo was not considered elective but I thankfully have not had a need to find out.
I saw a short interview on the news with an ICU doctor who was puzzled by the large drop in the kinds of emergency patients they normally see a steady steam of. Maybe COVID-!9 is magically stopping all other emergencies from occurring. Maybe those people are going directly to the rising non-COVID19 deaths figure.
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I don't get why chemo would be considered non-essential. Here they stopped all elective procedures, as far as I was aware something like chemo was not considered elective but I thankfully have not had a need to find out.
I saw a short interview on the news with an ICU doctor who was puzzled by the large drop in the kinds of emergency patients they normally see a steady steam of. Maybe COVID-!9 is magically stopping all other emergencies from occurring. Maybe those people are going directly to the rising non-COVID19 deaths figure.
More conspiracy theories :palm: In reality the answer is really simple: people don't get into so many accidents if they stay at home. Maybe that ICU doctor isn't the sharpest knife in the cutlery tray. This isn't hard to figure out.
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That and probably the 30 minute wait for 999 around here finishing everyone off.
Remind me why do I pay tax again? :-//
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I don't get why chemo would be considered non-essential. Here they stopped all elective procedures, as far as I was aware something like chemo was not considered elective but I thankfully have not had a need to find out.
I saw a short interview on the news with an ICU doctor who was puzzled by the large drop in the kinds of emergency patients they normally see a steady steam of. Maybe COVID-!9 is magically stopping all other emergencies from occurring. Maybe those people are going directly to the rising non-COVID19 deaths figure.
More conspiracy theories :palm: In reality the answer is really simple: people don't get into so many accidents if they stay at home. Maybe that ICU doctor isn't the sharpest knife in the cutlery tray. This isn't hard to figure out.
He specifically referenced infection issues, not accidents, dumbass.
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For the folk outside the UK, the NHS is untouchable here after being a political pawn for decades. You can't criticise it or the staff even if there's bodies everywhere from a gigantic fuck up.
Even so, I can tell you without question that I would take that shitshow over the spectacularly worse shitshow that is the US healthcare system. Nowhere else in the developed world will you be denied treatment due to lack of insurance, or get a bill for $150k+ for a heart attack. Even with insurance a friend of mine had a mild heart attack a few years ago and was still on the hook for $7k. We had something like 35 million citizens without health insurance even before Covid. Even with good insurance it's still an absolute nightmare to navigate, I rarely seek medical care unless something is really serious because it's so hard to know if I'll get a bill for $50 or for $5,000+, it's extremely difficult to know. Sometimes you end up having to fight with the insurance company because they'll find some bullshit reason to deny coverage and then you're on the hook to contest it or pay up. If I set out to design a more convoluted, inefficient and ridiculous system I'd be hard pressed to do so.
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Yeah yours is much worse. It’s the number one reason I have turned down two US based jobs over the years.
Then again I paid including VAT about £40k of tax last year. :-//
I don’t mind helping other people which appears to be the antithesis of the US healthcare system though.
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Even so, I can tell you without question that I would take that shitshow over the spectacularly worse shitshow that is the US healthcare system. Nowhere else in the developed world will you be denied treatment due to lack of insurance, or get a bill for $150k+ for a heart attack.
I've been surprised how comfortable many Americans are with their health care being tied to their employment. If you say something like "if you are laid off, and the stress brings on a heart attack, what is your next step?" they look confused, and upset.
I have met three Americans who do not live in the US, and say they will never return, after being in bankruptcy over medical bills resulting from accidents.
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Yeah yours is much worse. It’s the number one reason I have turned down two US based jobs over the years.
Then again I paid including VAT about £40k of tax last year. :-//
I don’t mind helping other people which appears to be the antithesis of the US healthcare system though.
We spend FAR more per capita on healthcare than you guys do, I wonder where all that tax money goes? I don't know the exact numbers offhand but I know the US spends twice as much as Canada which is the next runner up. That's per person too so the differing population shouldn't really matter.
A lot of our healthcare costs are less visible though. Since most people get their health insurance through their employer they never see a dollar amount for it. It's part of my compensation but it's not like I can decline it and take the money instead. I have no idea how much my employer pays for my health insurance.
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I don't get why chemo would be considered non-essential. Here they stopped all elective procedures, as far as I was aware something like chemo was not considered elective but I thankfully have not had a need to find out.
I saw a short interview on the news with an ICU doctor who was puzzled by the large drop in the kinds of emergency patients they normally see a steady steam of. Maybe COVID-!9 is magically stopping all other emergencies from occurring. Maybe those people are going directly to the rising non-COVID19 deaths figure.
More conspiracy theories :palm: In reality the answer is really simple: people don't get into so many accidents if they stay at home. Maybe that ICU doctor isn't the sharpest knife in the cutlery tray. This isn't hard to figure out.
He specifically referenced infection issues, not accidents, dumbass.
And where do infection issues come from? Yes, those come from complications from surgery and accidents. Do I really need to explain that? Again, either the ICU doctor isn't the sharpest one or his/her words where taken out of context.
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I don't get why chemo would be considered non-essential. Here they stopped all elective procedures, as far as I was aware something like chemo was not considered elective but I thankfully have not had a need to find out.
I saw a short interview on the news with an ICU doctor who was puzzled by the large drop in the kinds of emergency patients they normally see a steady steam of. Maybe COVID-!9 is magically stopping all other emergencies from occurring. Maybe those people are going directly to the rising non-COVID19 deaths figure.
More conspiracy theories :palm: In reality the answer is really simple: people don't get into so many accidents if they stay at home. Maybe that ICU doctor isn't the sharpest knife in the cutlery tray. This isn't hard to figure out.
He specifically referenced infection issues, not accidents, dumbass.
And where do infection issues come from? Yes, those come from complications from surgery and accidents. Do I really need to explain that? Again, either the ICU doctor isn't the sharpest one or his/her words where taken out of context.
So, you don't think this doctor would notice when he gets an infection case, and the person has been smashed up in an accident? You don't think he'd be making allowance for that?
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From my personal experience with doctors: No, I don't think so. And it is not the job of an ICU doctor to think about cause & effect and doing all kinds of statistics. Like any doctor an ICU doctor just follows the treatment protocol for the given symptoms. Doctors coming up with all kinds of outside-the-box miracle cures only exist in (fictional) TV shows.
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Are there some slight changes in tune and POV here :-//
Have some members popped a quarter or half a Red Pill in the last few hours? :o
FYI + FWIW x YMMV: if it hurts the head a bit at first, and you can't/won't deal with it, or just a scaredy cat and or peer group owned,
then pop two full Blue Pills to quickly counteract the effects :D
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What if you pop two of each?
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Then just use some disinfectant.
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Then just use some disinfectant.
You're too much, I'm going to go take a clorox bath.
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Update on the transparent plastic (?) screens
An ALDI store I popped into yesterday, to get some groceries in a simple, calm, courteous, civilized, non-hoarding manner,
had a spanking new properly rigged up full surround counter operator screen, that stretched out a bit to the conveyer belt
All properly assembled afaict with screws, washers and nuts,
and self drill/tap metal screws where applicable into woodwork and or metal trim
Definitely not a short term install, solid enough for the six months duration 'hinted' ::)
or a stretched out easy peasy to deploy SIX YEAR 'C' sting op, if the screens are maintained with Windex :-+
assuming the dunny paper hoarders don't stock up on that too >:(
EDIT: another ALDI store a few suburbs away has the same setup,
I'd say they'll all be done soon or already have
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I've been following the State Dept. of Health COVID-19 case numbers for weeks now. The number is up close to 6,000 confirmed cases. That number is just going to get bigger forever. I've been wondering why they aren't reporting the number of people that are currently sick? Even an estimate would be better than nothing and much more useful than an ever escalating confirmed cases number.
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I've been following the State Dept. of Health COVID-19 case numbers for weeks now. The number is up close to 6,000 confirmed cases. That number is just going to get bigger forever. I've been wondering why they aren't reporting the number of people that are currently sick? Even an estimate would be better than nothing and much more useful than an ever escalating confirmed cases number.
Most places are quoting confirmed cases, confirmed recoveries and deaths.
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I've been following the State Dept. of Health COVID-19 case numbers for weeks now. The number is up close to 6,000 confirmed cases. That number is just going to get bigger forever. I've been wondering why they aren't reporting the number of people that are currently sick? Even an estimate would be better than nothing and much more useful than an ever escalating confirmed cases number.
The only figure I look at is the new cases daily vs tested daily.
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Is there a key for that? Pink bars are...?
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Most useful information I've found so far is a chart showing that there are just over 600 confirmed cases currently hospitalized. Seems like more than half of the reported cases would be over it by now.
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And where do infection issues come from? Yes, those come from complications from surgery and accidents. Do I really need to explain that? Again, either the ICU doctor isn't the sharpest one or his/her words where taken out of context.
Isolation doesn't just hamper the spread of Covid specifically. It'd be very interesting to see how much isolation impacted various other diseases.
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[
Isolation doesn't just hamper the spread of Covid specifically. It'd be very interesting to see how much isolation impacted various other diseases.
In Hong Kong the concurrent caseload of seasonal influenza went to zero in March.
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Is there a key for that? Pink bars are...?
Pink bars are tests per day.
Black line is daily new cases.
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I believe the reason for stopping Cemo is that it (and the drugs that go with it) suppresses the immune system dramatically. Thus not something you want to doing with a deadly virus around. However, maybe it's been over done.
Below is an interview with a respiratory consultant. Some of it is speculative, but clearly put as such. The bit that interests me is the concept that getting the virus is not digital. It could very much matter what kind of dose you get. There is also believe that while PPE works it's not 100% and health care workers are highly likely to be receiving daily minimal doses of infection.
The other interesting stuff is how infection can be mild or severe condition and what are the risk factors of that. It seems there are some clear markers of risk, but some of more illusive. Age and sex (over twice as many males with severe condition). But others are a bit more confusing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6ob3JIZ2CQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6ob3JIZ2CQ)
The other thing I've seen which is interesting. "Going Korean" on it to get out of lock down is looking like a viable option. That would involve aggressive testing, contact tracing, isolating and reporting cases on apps so that people who shared space with those who test positive can present for testing.
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versus Normal Day To Day sniffles, head colds, bronchitis, smokers cough n splutter, kids -running nose- and high temperature mashup flu,
flying swine flew, exotic bird flu, pick a country flu, mad cow disease flu, 'one flu over the cuckoos nest' believe anything flu,
old age flu from being caged in and stressed,
and any other endorsed FEARASCO flu
SO flu is fake? Viruses are fake?
And what would be the purpose and who would be the driver of such a conspiracy. Is it all a big hoax by NetFlix and Amazon prime to get people to stay home and watch TV and order shit they don't need?
Here's an idea. If you are really sure of your self, it's fairly easy for you to put your money/life where you mouth is and go snort a few supermarket trolley handle.
A safer way would probably be to take a trip down to your local emergency room and tell them you believe it's a hoax and maybe, maybe they might show you what's going on there.
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A safer way would probably be to take a trip down to your local emergency room and tell them you believe it's a hoax and maybe, maybe they might show you what's going on there.
So far Australia hasn't been really hit yet so the situation is far better compared to that of the northern hemisphere... but ya'll know: winter is coming to the southern hemisphere!
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Yes but with global warming and all... winter ... pfft.
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The charts to see are ones displaying Isolation From Money due to Genuine VERIFIED Sniffles Induced From Corona
versus Normal Day To Day sniffles, head colds, bronchitis, smokers cough n splutter, kids -running nose- and high temperature mashup flu,
flying swine flew, exotic bird flu, pick a country flu, mad cow disease flu, 'one flu over the cuckoos nest' believe anything flu,
old age flu from being caged in and stressed,
and any other endorsed FEARASCO flu
It would be handy to know who's actually running the statistics show and their affiliations
Who pays their wages, who distributes it on the internet and news media circus,
details of their stat source network/s etc
Or is that too difficult, and meandering towards verboten conspiracy theory ? :o :scared:
I can see why everyone is just rolling with this on faith and trust, it's a lot easier on the brain isn't it?
hoping it will blow away soon and convinced I'm full of it
Losing Tip: just keep rolling with it and don't stop believin...
Who pays your wages? We have a right to know who owns you. We can't ascertain the relevance of your statements without knowing your affiliations.
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Apparently the Covidsafe bluetooth application is now ready for Australians to download. :-\
They should make it so if you are in close proximity to somebody else for too long your
phone generates an annoyingly loud coughing sound, better to be safe than sick. >:D
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-tracing-app-covidsafe-australia-government-covid-19/12186130 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-tracing-app-covidsafe-australia-government-covid-19/12186130)
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I can see why everyone is just rolling with this on faith and trust, it's a lot easier on the brain isn't it?
hoping it will blow away soon and convinced I'm full of it
I think you've made your point sufficiently clear now. Looking at your recent posts I think you have not brought up a new argument or fact in at least a week if not two (I didn't bother looking back further).
What about keeping your mouth shut for a while instead of constantly trying to derail yet another thread?
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They should make it so if you are in close proximity to somebody else for too long your
phone generates an annoyingly loud coughing sound
That would be an excellent wheeze if it could be done reliably :-+
Black line is daily new cases.
Thanks. Looks good!
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They should make it so if you are in close proximity to somebody else for too long your
phone generates an annoyingly loud coughing sound
That would be an excellent wheeze if it could be done reliably :-+
If the phone makes an excellent wheeze, that would be a more subtle approach than making it cough. :)
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Apparently the Covidsafe bluetooth application is now ready for Australians to download. :-\
They should make it so if you are in close proximity to somebody else for too long your
phone generates an annoyingly loud coughing sound, better to be safe than sick. >:D
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-tracing-app-covidsafe-australia-government-covid-19/12186130 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-tracing-app-covidsafe-australia-government-covid-19/12186130)
Something llike this is being worked on over here as well.
I'll let everyone judge what this means as far as individual freedom and privacy go.
Of course they are all swearing everything will get anonymized.
Of course they are all swearing (well, the talk is already slightly changing now) that installing this will be optional.
That's interesting to see that now "going Korean" seems like a valid option, whereas just a couple weeks ago, when some of us were saying we should take a look at what the countries that managed to get this under control did, many were just saying we had no proof that really worked. (Same thing with masks BTW.) Oh well. Only fools and dead men don't change their minds.
But still, as I already said earlier, I for one am pretty concerned about all those measures and tools that are going to be severely damaging our freedom and privacy.
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What I find annoying is that every country seems to want to develop their own Corona tracking app. In the end the functionality is the same because the problem is exactly the same for everyon so why not use one and the same app? I get the impression some government officials have the pipe dream of developing an app that somehow doesn't need to collect any information :palm:
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I suspect it's going to be very hard to convince many people to install a tracking app from some other country. I know it's not rational, I mean people think nothing of handing over their personal information to social networking sites but anything associated in some way with government and the conspiracy theories start to fly. This is despite the fact that it's called a tracking app and the tracking is laid out right in front of you instead of being obfuscated as is the case with most. I wonder if they could just use the existing social networking apps, they're probably already installed on more phones than a new tracking app ever will be.
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I mean people think nothing of handing over their personal information to social networking sites
Some people do. And those people will probably accept that coronavirus trumps (sorry!) any privacy worries. Which is understandable since they don't have any worries in the first place (otherwise they wouldn't be on Facebook et al.).
but anything associated in some way with government and the conspiracy theories start to fly
Snowden showed us real life trumps (again! sorry) conspiracy theories in that regard.
But the big difference is that social media won't kick down your front door at 6am because their erroneous reading of your intertubes traffic suggests you're a terrorist or kiddy fiddler. You can log out of social media; you can't turn off your local (or higher) PTB.
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Rationally this is true, but people are not rational about these things.
Facebook might not kick in your door, but it should be obvious to anyone with half a brain that the government entities keep close tabs on social networking sites, they can access anything you post on there either by social engineering or with a court order.
I don't let social apps anywhere near my phone. I'd be willing to install a Covid tracking app on a temporary basis though. I'm not interesting enough for someone to actually want to track me but I still don't want to just hand over my data without getting something valuable in return. I consider tracking the spread of a pandemic, determining just how bad it is and quickly identifying outbreaks in order to allow most of us a return to some degree of normalcy to be a pretty significant return. Many don't think like that though.
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What I find annoying is that every country seems to want to develop their own Corona tracking app. In the end the functionality is the same because the problem is exactly the same for everyon so why not use one and the same app? I get the impression some government officials have the pipe dream of developing an app that somehow doesn't need to collect any information :palm:
For what? It is more effective closing the border :-// Today, it is the first day that allow to walk the children. The people have gone out like the chicken meme. I believe that Dance Coffin guys are going to work until end Summer.
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The phone tracking and logging is just google and Apple pushing their "surveillance capitalism" onto people so they can improve their analytics and know where you go, who you associate with, sans permission.
Look at these pictures, a phone app is utterly useless - unless the police get to use it to issue tickets. CCP is right on, having full freedom is dangerous :palm:
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People might want to read up on how it works before actually making that assumption. This is not positional tracking. The governments asked for that and Google and Apple told them to get fucked.
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People might want to read up on how it works before actually making that assumption. This is not positional tracking. The governments asked for that and Google and Apple told them to get fucked.
Correct! The Dutch government even demands the app to be open source so everyone can see inside.
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I understand this as Bluetooth tracking compared with GPS tracking. Converting a Bluetooth UUID (https://www.bluetooth.com/specifications/assigned-numbers/service-discovery/) to an actual person's ID or phone number requires access to private information and your contact list, and who trusts these cheezy app developers to not harvest it all and sell it to third parties ala zuckerburg style and claim it was a hack.
My municipality already uses Bluetooth tracking (https://www.sensysnetworks.com/products/flexid) along freeways and major roadways, where it picks off your BT devices (car NAV, phone, iPad, FitBit etc) and uses their "anonymized MAC address" to determine your travel times for traffic congestion etc. No permissions or app needed. It can also be used in a mall to see where you are and how long you spend in sections of a store, for analytics. As I said, I know the husband's BT UUID and to run when it comes up ;)
I don't see the point in moving towards being a (proximity) surveillance state, every precedent set removing privacy by corporations leads us towards their profit motive of monetizing our private information.
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Apparently the Covidsafe bluetooth application is now ready for Australians to download. :-\
They should make it so if you are in close proximity to somebody else for too long your
phone generates an annoyingly loud coughing sound, better to be safe than sick. >:D
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-tracing-app-covidsafe-australia-government-covid-19/12186130 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-26/coronavirus-tracing-app-covidsafe-australia-government-covid-19/12186130)
They clearly got this idea by reversing what happens in the movie Wedlock. They'll quickly find people cheat, and don't have their phone with them 100% of the time. So, version 2 will require you be fitted with a collar, and if you move too close to someone it will blow your head off. :)
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I understand this as Bluetooth tracking compared with GPS tracking. Converting a Bluetooth UUID (https://www.bluetooth.com/specifications/assigned-numbers/service-discovery/) to an actual person's ID or phone number requires access to private information and your contact list, and who trusts these cheezy app developers to not harvest it all and sell it to third parties ala zuckerburg style and claim it was a hack.
But Corona tracking apps don't work that way. The Bluetooth ID gets hashed (which means converted to a unique fingerprint which cannot be traced back to the original; see SHA256 for example). On your phone you'll have a list with those fingerprints for a couple of weeks. A central server receives messages from phones of which the user says he/she is infected and you get a message saying a fingerprint is infected.
In short: there is no absolute location tracking involved and no personal c.q. traceable information is shared. Also many Corona tracking apps are open source so anyone can see how it works. As bd139 wrote: you should really do some investigation into how Corona tracking apps actually work instead of writing utter nonsense.
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People might want to read up on how it works before actually making that assumption. This is not positional tracking. The governments asked for that and Google and Apple told them to get fucked.
If the app can't trace a person's activity, and who they were near, isn't it just useless feel good fluff?
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As james_s wrote:
It was bd139, actually, but I bet no-one's ever seen them in the same room together :)
As an anti-Googler and not a fan of Apple either, I have to hand it to them that they have got this one exactly right. I'd have no issue either installing the app or allowing the OS to do it all (which it will, eventually, according to their plan). At least, at the moment - no doubt someone will figure out a good hack which will defeat them at some point.
And that embedding in the OS thing should tell us that this is here to stay, so the government version won't be just for a couple of months and then you remove it. After this pandemic there will be another, but hopefully we will be better prepared to mitigate it, via things like this BT feature and non-depleted stockpiles, and it will be much less hassle.
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Another question: how can the app know who is infected? I suppose it entirely relies on each invidual voluntarily declaring this through the app? How reliable would that be really, knowing we are definitely not nearly as obedient/compliant as korean or chinese people?
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and who there were near
Doesn't need to know who they were near. Just that the owner of the phone that handed out such-and-such ID, which was colocated last week, has gone down with it. The only info held centrally is what ID to broadcast as being a dodgy one. Done right, even that central won't know who, or even what phone, it's just some anonymous number.
Having said that, it might be possible for TPTB to take someone's phone and see what IDs they've been next to, and then pick someone elses phone and see if it generated any of those IDs. That'd be really tedious, though, and they'd have to be pretty sure who to try it on with before getting started or they'd be there all week.
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How reliable would that be really, knowing we are
My guess is it will take about 4 hours before someone fakes being infected just for the laughs. And someone really infected might have other things on their mind than dicking around with a phone app. In which case there would have to be some 'official' interaction - perhaps a code that only a doctor confirming an infection will provide to prevent false positive abuse, and 'strong incentive' to set yourself as being infected if/when you are.
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How it works for the uneducated.
https://www.blog.google/documents/57/Overview_of_COVID-19_Contact_Tracing_Using_BLE.pdf (https://www.blog.google/documents/57/Overview_of_COVID-19_Contact_Tracing_Using_BLE.pdf)
The governments want tracking. The smartphone vendors are only allowing anonymous token exchanges over bluetooth LE (token accumuation). In fact the NHS here got all pissy when Apple said not to them.
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@eevForumBloggers:
You can read the full technical Google/Apple contact tracking and tracing over Bluetooth API [draft] specifications here:
Google and Apple are releasing draft documentation for an Exposure Notification system in service of privacy-preserving contact tracing:
https://www.apple.com/covid19/contacttracing/ (https://www.apple.com/covid19/contacttracing/)
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How reliable would that be really, knowing we are
My guess is it will take about 4 hours before someone fakes being infected just for the laughs. And someone really infected might have other things on their mind than dicking around with a phone app. In which case there would have to be some 'official' interaction - perhaps a code that only a doctor confirming an infection will provide to prevent false positive abuse, and 'strong incentive' to set yourself as being infected if/when you are.
Sorry, I fail to see how that could work in practice.
They are all swearing 1/ that people can't be individually traced, 2/ that its use will only be voluntary. What kind of strong incentive are you talking about exactly?
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I understand this as Bluetooth tracking compared with GPS tracking. Converting a Bluetooth UUID (https://www.bluetooth.com/specifications/assigned-numbers/service-discovery/) to an actual person's ID or phone number requires access to private information and your contact list, and who trusts these cheezy app developers to not harvest it all and sell it to third parties ala zuckerburg style and claim it was a hack.
But Corona tracking apps don't work that way. The Bluetooth ID gets hashed (which means converted to a unique fingerprint which cannot be traced back to the original; see SHA256 for example). On your phone you'll have a list with those fingerprints for a couple of weeks. A central server receives messages from phones of which the user says he/she is infected and you get a message saying a fingerprint is infected.
In short: there is no absolute location tracking involved and no personal c.q. traceable information is shared. Also many Corona tracking apps are open source so anyone can see how it works. As bd139 wrote: you should really do some investigation into how Corona tracking apps actually work instead of writing utter nonsense.
How does the hashed Bluetooth ID or beacon get resolved back to the original person for notification?
I'm holding my pitchfork because Canada has does not have the EU GPDR regulation wrt data privacy, so we constantly get Silicon Valley/USA datamining in apps.
"...Once {app} enabled, users’ devices will regularly send out a beacon via Bluetooth that includes a privacy-preserving identifier — basically, a string of random numbers that aren’t tied to a user's identity and change every 10-20 minutes for additional protection. Other phones will be listening for these beacons and broadcasting theirs as well. When each phone receives another beacon, it will record and securely store that beacon on the device."
"At least once per day, the system will download a list of beacons that have been verified as belonging to people confirmed as positive for COVID-19 from the relevant public health
authority. Each device will check the list of beacons it has recorded against the list downloaded from the server. If there is a match between the beacons stored on the device and the positive diagnosis list, the user may be notified and advised on steps to take next."
"In the second phase, available in the coming months, this capability will be introduced at the operating system level to help ensure broad adoption, which is vital to the success of contact tracing."
Let's look at it backwards then, the privacy policy on these lovely nice sweet coronavirus apps:
UK COVID Symptom Tracker (https://covid.joinzoe.com/privacy-notice) Privacy Notice
Third party processors for both kinds of information
We use third parties to process some of your personal data on our behalf. When we allow them access to your data, we do not permit them to use it for their own purposes. We have in place with each processor, a contract that requires them only to process the data on our instructions and to take proper care in using it. They are not permitted to keep the data after our relationship with them has ended.
These processors include:
Amazon Web Services
Google Cloud Platform
SurveyMonkey
Segment
Google Analytics
Mixpanel
Google G-Suite
MailChimp
Mailgun
Intercom
Sentry
Google Firebase
SwiftyBeaver
It's this third-party shit where they get to use your private data for their internal purposes - why I would not participate.
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"In the second phase, available in the coming months, this capability will be introduced at the operating system level to help ensure broad adoption, which is vital to the success of contact tracing."
Yeah, even just that, I'm not sure people have realized what that meant in the long run.
"help ensure broad adoption," means: making it unavoidable. That's politician's talk.
And if that gets deep into operating systems, you can be sure it will be used, reused and abused in the long run.
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Floobydust: We use most of those and we’re fintech and have full control over the data. They are service providers.
Back in the old days the same shit happened but in crates of paper and EDI dial ups...
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The phone tracking and logging is just google and Apple pushing their "surveillance capitalism" onto people so they can improve their analytics and know where you go, who you associate with, sans permission.
They already have that, Google's whole business model is based on compiling massive amounts of information on people, their interests, buying habits and whereabouts. Any kind of Covid tracking is not going to give them anything more useful in their goals of gathering marketing data than what they already have.
I don't really understand why everyone thinks everything is some kind of conspiracy. The surreptitious tracking for marketing data is already widespread, the Covid tracking is a voluntary thing many of us are willing to do in order to try to provide a benefit to society as a whole. The paranoid delusional reaction that seems so widespread is bizarre to me. If you don't want to help then fine, but please stay out of the way and let the rest of us try to make a positive difference.
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If they can put this tracker on a stand alone device that I can carry in my pocket, I'm in. I don't own a smartphone, probably never will.
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Having Bluetooth on constantly is going to kill the battery fast too.
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You're very much in the minority, likely less than 0.001% of the population. The number of people who don't own a smartphone is statistically irrelevant, there's no need to develop a standalone device. If you really wanted to volunteer, I'm sure someone would give you an old smartphone that could be used strictly for the tracking app if that was the desire.
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What kind of strong incentive are you talking about exactly?
Your guess is as good as mine. Could range from absolutely nothing to, say, access to a ventilator. Free beer, maybe. Lots of possibilities!
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You're very much in the minority, likely less than 0.001% of the population. The number of people who don't own a smartphone is statistically irrelevant, there's no need to develop a standalone device. If you really wanted to volunteer, I'm sure someone would give you an old smartphone that could be used strictly for the tracking app if that was the desire.
Uh, yeah. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_smartphone_penetration
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What kind of strong incentive are you talking about exactly?
Your guess is as good as mine. Could range from absolutely nothing to, say, access to a ventilator. Free beer, maybe. Lots of possibilities!
Access to any medical help - they said they would never condition that to the use of the app. Hmm, so far, that is. And I don't think you could, that would certainly be unconstitutional per se in most countries.
I'm not going to guess, I'm just saying it seems completely unrealistic, especially in our western democracies. Unless, of course, they lie about the "voluntary" part.
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Having Bluetooth on constantly is going to kill the battery fast too.
My phone has BT enabled permanently (talks to a smartwatch which samples my heart rate at least every 10 mins, amongst other things). Also has GSM on permanently (though not data). Battery lasts 3/4 days on the phone, 3+weeks on the watch.
OTOH, turn on 5GHz wifi and you can watch the battery drain before your eyes. Lucky if it lasts a day.
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I thought I read recently that about 40% of people in the US lacked a smartphone, but a quick check now indicates it's probably only 25% or so.
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Access to any medical help - they said they would never condition that to the use of the app.
Fine. Use your imagination, then. I did include 'absolutely nothing' as a possibility so you don't have to pick the worst option :)
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I thought I read recently that about 40% of people in the US lacked a smartphone, but a quick check now indicates it's probably only 25% or so.
That's actually a bit shocking. I've been trying to think of anyone I personally know who doesn't have one and I can think of one who didn't for a while but now I don't know whether he does or not. Even my 70 year old parents have them and my partner's nearly 90 year old grandparents. I'm amazed that more than 1% of the population over about the age of 8 doesn't have one.
The link someone else posted said it was 22% in 2018, so it's got to be under 20% now two years later. I'm still blown away by this but maybe some parts of the country have much lower penetration? Given I live only a few miles from Microsoft, Google, Amazon and numerous other tech companies it's likely this area has a higher penetration than most. I can't think of the last time I saw anyone using a non-smartphone, it's been years.
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Having Bluetooth on constantly is going to kill the battery fast too.
My phone has BT enabled permanently (talks to a smartwatch which samples my heart rate at least every 10 mins, amongst other things). Also has GSM on permanently (though not data). Battery lasts 3/4 days on the phone, 3+weeks on the watch.
OTOH, turn on 5GHz wifi and you can watch the battery drain before your eyes. Lucky if it lasts a day.
I get about 3 days life out of an old Galaxy S5 here (modded with a bigger battery). Bluetooth does shorten that down a bit, but I haven't measured the effects.
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
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I get about 3 days life out of an old Galaxy S5 here (modded with a bigger battery). Bluetooth does shorten that down a bit, but I haven't measured the effects.
Yeah, any modern Bluetooth chipset will not draw too much power on 'idle'.
But in this case, if you're frequently in areas with many people, Bluetooth communication will happen frequently and draw significantly more, even though it's apparently using BLE, so that's just unfrequent and small packets.
But between BLE and the required OS, that suggests the app will require minimal hardware & OS version to run - which is likely to further limit the % of people with an adequate smartphone.
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
Yup.
It may not be made mandatory from your government, but private companies MAY make this a prerequisite for accessing their services...
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I get about 3 days life out of an old Galaxy S5 here (modded with a bigger battery). Bluetooth does shorten that down a bit, but I haven't measured the effects.
Yeah, any modern Bluetooth chipset will not draw too much power on 'idle'.
But in this case, if you're frequently in areas with many people, Bluetooth communication will happen frequently and draw significantly more, even though it's apparently using BLE, so that's just unfrequent and small packets.
But between BLE and the required OS, that suggests the app will require minimal hardware & OS version to run - which is likely to further limit the % of people with an adequate smartphone.
Is it actually possible to enable BLE separately from classic Bluetooth? - if not, maybe it is the classic part that is draining the battery, always listening for new devices coming in range etc.
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I get about 3 days life out of an old Galaxy S5 here (modded with a bigger battery). Bluetooth does shorten that down a bit, but I haven't measured the effects.
Yeah, any modern Bluetooth chipset will not draw too much power on 'idle'.
But in this case, if you're frequently in areas with many people, Bluetooth communication will happen frequently and draw significantly more, even though it's apparently using BLE, so that's just unfrequent and small packets.
But between BLE and the required OS, that suggests the app will require minimal hardware & OS version to run - which is likely to further limit the % of people with an adequate smartphone.
Is it actually possible to enable BLE separately from classic Bluetooth?
I don't think so. Never seen a smartphone on which you could.
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You're very much in the minority, likely less than 0.001% of the population. The number of people who don't own a smartphone is statistically irrelevant, there's no need to develop a standalone device. If you really wanted to volunteer, I'm sure someone would give you an old smartphone that could be used strictly for the tracking app if that was the desire.
Have you considered the large number of mostly older people who don't use a smartphone, because they struggle to read them? There are still phone models with big chunky keys and large digits on the display for people with poor sight that sell in considerable quantities. Those older people are a key demographic that most needs monitoring.
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Another question: how can the app know who is infected? I suppose it entirely relies on each invidual voluntarily declaring this through the app? How reliable would that be really, knowing we are definitely not nearly as obedient/compliant as korean or chinese people?
This is one of the reasons local governments/health authorities want more control over any tracing system, so they can have some control over what is marked for tracing.
But that level of control/inspection is only needed for the database of "confirmed" cases. The google/apple model provides the other 90% of the work, but they require the users to have control over when/if they release any data, and what they do with the information. The big picture view of most of these systems:
a) People walk around and share randomly generated identifier numbers with others near them (how often each persons random identifier number changes is a big privacy question)
b) Each device keeps its personal database of which identifiers it has seen (if you include when/where metadata as well then privacy people get unhappy)
the next step is where this all diverges:
c) Government mandates all data is delivered to them for offical uses, and they have the de-identifying data to link any record back to specific people. They promise this is better as they will actively contact and follow up with people who might be infected.
or
c) Users decide if/when they announce they were infected, and upload the history of their recent identifiers to a central store (could be region/locale specific). Other users periodically pull the official list of confirmed identifiers and check if they have recoded contacts in their local data. This relies on the users deciding on what they want to do with the information, some people might not announce they were infected, and others might take no action even if they had a contact match.
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Have you considered the large number of mostly older people who don't use a smartphone, because they struggle to read them? There are still phone models with big chunky keys and large digits on the display for people with poor sight that sell in considerable quantities. Those older people are a key demographic that most needs monitoring.
I don't know these older people.
As I already said, my parents are in their 70s, I have older relatives in their 80s, my partner's grandparents are late 80s-early 90s, a group of their friends we get together with now and then, all of them have smartphones. I genuinely cannot think of anyone I I know, of any age over about 8 who doesn't have one. Smartphones have high contrast settings, zoom and other features specifically for people with poor eyesight and other disabilities.
Obviously there are a lot more out there than I realized, I just don't personally know any of them and have never seen them so I have to guess it's more common somewhere else.
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I understand this as Bluetooth tracking compared with GPS tracking. Converting a Bluetooth UUID (https://www.bluetooth.com/specifications/assigned-numbers/service-discovery/) to an actual person's ID or phone number requires access to private information and your contact list, and who trusts these cheezy app developers to not harvest it all and sell it to third parties ala zuckerburg style and claim it was a hack.
But Corona tracking apps don't work that way. The Bluetooth ID gets hashed (which means converted to a unique fingerprint which cannot be traced back to the original; see SHA256 for example). On your phone you'll have a list with those fingerprints for a couple of weeks. A central server receives messages from phones of which the user says he/she is infected and you get a message saying a fingerprint is infected.
In short: there is no absolute location tracking involved and no personal c.q. traceable information is shared. Also many Corona tracking apps are open source so anyone can see how it works. As bd139 wrote: you should really do some investigation into how Corona tracking apps actually work instead of writing utter nonsense.
How does the hashed Bluetooth ID or beacon get resolved back to the original person for notification?
That is not necessary. Your phone can query a server for infected hashes and if one of these hashes matches your list with contacted hashes then you where near an infected person.
c) Users decide if/when they announce they were infected, and upload the history of their recent identifiers to a central store (could be region/locale specific). Other users periodically pull the official list of confirmed identifiers and check if they have recoded contacts in their local data. This relies on the users deciding on what they want to do with the information, some people might not announce they were infected, and others might take no action even if they had a contact match.
Probably. But the less people use a tracking app properly, the more strict lock-down measures are needed. So in the end it depends on the people whether they prefer their freedom or prefer acting like a kid.
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I understand this as Bluetooth tracking compared with GPS tracking. Converting a Bluetooth UUID (https://www.bluetooth.com/specifications/assigned-numbers/service-discovery/) to an actual person's ID or phone number requires access to private information and your contact list, and who trusts these cheezy app developers to not harvest it all and sell it to third parties ala zuckerburg style and claim it was a hack.
But Corona tracking apps don't work that way. The Bluetooth ID gets hashed (which means converted to a unique fingerprint which cannot be traced back to the original; see SHA256 for example). On your phone you'll have a list with those fingerprints for a couple of weeks. A central server receives messages from phones of which the user says he/she is infected and you get a message saying a fingerprint is infected.
In short: there is no absolute location tracking involved and no personal c.q. traceable information is shared. Also many Corona tracking apps are open source so anyone can see how it works. As bd139 wrote: you should really do some investigation into how Corona tracking apps actually work instead of writing utter nonsense.
How does the hashed Bluetooth ID or beacon get resolved back to the original person for notification?
That is not necessary. Your phone can query a server for infected hashes and if one of these hashes matches your list with contacted hashes then you where near an infected person.
The only thing is... as long as the phone queries a server, the server will get your phone's IP address... right? And can associate it with the queried hashes. And from your IP it should be possible to know who's the phone owner (but of course that would require the phone provider to cooperate.) Just a thought about it being completely anonymous.
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And can associate it with the queried hashes.
No. The phone sends nothing. The server sends the hash of the infected phone, your phone just uses that to see if it matches any hash stored only on the phone. All the server can tell is that you have the app installed, nothing else (until or unless you get infected and elect to let people know that).
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Please pardon this brief intrusion folks \$\Omega\$
I can see why everyone is just rolling with this on faith and trust, it's a lot easier on the brain isn't it?
hoping it will blow away soon and convinced I'm full of it
I think you've made your point sufficiently clear now. Looking at your recent posts I think you have not brought up a new argument or fact in at least a week if not two (I didn't bother looking back further).
What about keeping your mouth shut for a while instead of constantly trying to derail yet another thread?
Dear thinkfat, I missed that you are the OP, and apologize if I've derailed your thread,
and for not creating a new argument and bin the old one, to appease you
stay tuned mate, working on something new now.. :)
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
The free market will ultimately take care of that. But they already know who sat next to who, so no need for that.
And government and businesses are slowly losing the ability to capitalise on people's fear, all this stuff isn't going to last too much longer, people's patience is already starting to wear thin. Imagine what it'll be like in 6-12 months time time trying to push this stuff.
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The only thing is... as long as the phone queries a server, the server will get your phone's IP address... right? And can associate it with the queried hashes. And from your IP it should be possible to know who's the phone owner (but of course that would require the phone provider to cooperate.) Just a thought about it being completely anonymous.
No. The phone sends nothing. The server sends the hash of the infected phone, your phone just uses that to see if it matches any hash stored only on the phone. All the server can tell is that you have the app installed, nothing else (until or unless you get infected and elect to let people know that).
SiliconWizard,
In the most private option being suggested (please read the explanation I provided above) the centralised store is sending out the lists of identifiers associated with infections to everyone equally, an excellent privacy standpoint as there is no difference between any of the users doing this part. The only identification would be choosing to "announce" as infected and uploading your recent identifiers, which indeed could be linked to the user/location back through the network connections. It would be possible to improve that step but I've not seen any proposals for an air gap/sneaker net in that part.
But the key difference in ideologies here is the being forced to do announce or not, particularly being forced to announce links constantly when you aren't infected.
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Actually the list with infected hashes can also be distributed using a decentralised system like in a peer-to-peer network. That way it is very hard to trace an 'I'm infected' hash back to it's origin.
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
The free market will ultimately take care of that. But they already know who sat next to who, so no need for that.
At that point it is too late. There is a delay between getting infected and becoming contagious. One of the points of using an app is to get an announcement you have been in touch with an infected person a couple of days ago. Maybe the level of contacts has to be more than one level deep though to get an early warning (but that is something to figure out by virologists). Anyway, with an app we can literally get ahead of the virus.
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Actually the list with infected hashes can also be distributed using a decentralised system like in a peer-to-peer network. That way it is very hard to trace an 'I'm infected' hash back to it's origin.
The verification still poses a bottleneck, anonymising test results etc.
The main point is to separate out identification and/or tracking of someone who is known to be infected and choosing to co-operate, vs just tracking everyone all the time.
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And government and businesses are slowly losing the ability to capitalise on people's fear, all this stuff isn't going to last too much longer, people's patience is already starting to wear thin.
Maybe. I mean, you're right that people are getting restless and if it all blew over right now we'd be back to where we were pretty soon. But that assumes it will blow over. Suppose we all start going back to work and it blows up again, like it's doing in Singapore - people will start to get the message that it's not an easy fix and that social distancing is actually pretty important. It wouldn't take too long for there to be new norms if we can just stick it out long enough to get over the 'strangeness' speed bump. If you look at, say, Hong Kong where masks are a normal part of life, that essentially came about through SARS, which was only 7 years ago.
There are other examples, both pretty significant (like sewers and flush loos) and not so much. Bidets are apparently all the rage in the US now, which they previously definitely weren't, and where they're being installed I reckon they'll be still be used when the novelty has worn off, and gradually permeate the rest of the country. It could also be a while before one allows one's stock of toilet paper to dwindle to one roll before seeking more.
So there are two new minor norms that could easily continue. It will no doubt massively depend on what happens next, and no-one really knows that at this point.
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
The free market will ultimately take care of that. But they already know who sat next to who, so no need for that.
At that point it is too late. There is a delay between getting infected and becoming contagious. One of the points of using an app is to get an announcement you have been in touch with an infected person a couple of days ago.
It's called tracing app for a reason. It traces who you have been intact with. In the plane example, they already have mandatory contact tracing, in fact it's already one of the best forms of contact tracing currently available. Adding a tracing app adds little value when it comes to airline travel.
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And government and businesses are slowly losing the ability to capitalise on people's fear, all this stuff isn't going to last too much longer, people's patience is already starting to wear thin.
Maybe. I mean, you're right that people are getting restless and if it all blew over right now we'd be back to where we were pretty soon. But that assumes it will blow over. Suppose we all start going back to work and it blows up again, like it's doing in Singapore
That's the 2nd time someone here has claimed it's flaring back up in places that have eased lockdowns. Do you have data for that? Because it looks like that's not the case, daily case totals have not increased.
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Putting aside my hate and distrust for google, apple, facebook and their monetizing our private data...
I'm still skeptical this tracking is bullshit, despite our hopes and wishes and the need for tech to save humanity.
An app can't know your distance to another person with any crude accuracy without GPS.
If I'm stopped at a red light, nearby cars or the transit bus passengers beside me- will get proximity logged despite the glass.
People living in the same apartment building, living above, next door, below - there's a wall between us but an app would consider the people within a few metres of each other. A cashier at the grocery store sees hundreds of customers, behind PPE.
So I see many false proximity events being recorded.
Coronavirus tests are doing poor for accuracy, 15% false negatives (Abbott ID NOW) and false positives are there too. No test has been approved by the Canadian government, many countries returning contaminated test kits to china.
The signal/noise ratio will not be enough to make it helpful. Logistics on undoing a false positive test result, after notifications have been sent out, well- people are screwed because a false +ve can propagate far unless you are known hikikomori.
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Putting aside my hate and distrust for google, apple, facebook and their monetizing our private data...
I'm still skeptical this tracking is bullshit, despite our hopes and wishes and the need for tech to save humanity.
An app can't know your distance to another person with any crude accuracy without GPS.
If I'm stopped at a red light, nearby cars or the transit bus passengers beside me- will get proximity logged despite the glass.
People living in the same apartment building, living above, next door, below - there's a wall between us but an app would consider the people within a few metres of each other. A cashier at the grocery store sees hundreds of customers, behind PPE.
So I see many false proximity events being recorded.
Yep, and apart from the obvious well earned distrust of our government when it comes to security, that's the other reason why I refuse to use it. I won't contribute to a flawed solution.
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
The free market will ultimately take care of that. But they already know who sat next to who, so no need for that.
At that point it is too late. There is a delay between getting infected and becoming contagious. One of the points of using an app is to get an announcement you have been in touch with an infected person a couple of days ago.
It's called tracing app for a reason. It traces who you have been intact with. In the plane example, they already have mandatory contact tracing, in fact it's already one of the best forms of contact tracing currently available. Adding a tracing app adds little value when it comes to airline travel.
When i wrote that i meant the airline at the boarding gates may consider you a higher risk because since you did not have the app you were not aware of notification that you could met with sick people before.
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If I'm stopped at a red light, nearby cars or the transit bus passengers beside me- will get proximity logged despite the glass.
People living in the same apartment building, living above, next door, below - there's a wall between us but an app would consider the people within a few metres of each other. A cashier at the grocery store sees hundreds of customers, behind PPE.
So I see many false proximity events being recorded.
I take the objective of this initiative as a generic statistic based reconnaissance trying to identify hot spot areas. Big numbers do not lie. Proximity or not, if many positives come from an area it is better to look into it what is going on.
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Putting aside my hate and distrust for google, apple, facebook and their monetizing our private data...
I'm still skeptical this tracking is bullshit, despite our hopes and wishes and the need for tech to save humanity.
An app can't know your distance to another person with any crude accuracy without GPS.
If I'm stopped at a red light, nearby cars or the transit bus passengers beside me- will get proximity logged despite the glass.
People living in the same apartment building, living above, next door, below - there's a wall between us but an app would consider the people within a few metres of each other. A cashier at the grocery store sees hundreds of customers, behind PPE.
So I see many false proximity events being recorded.
Coronavirus tests are doing poor for accuracy, 15% false negatives (Abbott ID NOW) and false positives are there too. No test has been approved by the Canadian government, many countries returning contaminated test kits to china.
The signal/noise ratio will not be enough to make it helpful. Logistics on undoing a false positive test result, after notifications have been sent out, well- people are screwed because a false +ve can propagate far unless you are known hikikomori.
Neither with gps, now you imagine that pass below of building of 9 plants or subterranean peatonal pass. The gps won't work
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
The free market will ultimately take care of that. But they already know who sat next to who, so no need for that.
At that point it is too late. There is a delay between getting infected and becoming contagious. One of the points of using an app is to get an announcement you have been in touch with an infected person a couple of days ago.
It's called tracing app for a reason. It traces who you have been intact with. In the plane example, they already have mandatory contact tracing, in fact it's already one of the best forms of contact tracing currently available. Adding a tracing app adds little value when it comes to airline travel.
When i wrote that i meant the airline at the boarding gates may consider you a higher risk because since you did not have the app you were not aware of notification that you could met with sick people before.
I knew you'd say that.
So why wouldn't other businesses that currently have zero or lesser current tracing ability also reject people? Like movie theaters, concerts/events, gyms etc anywhere that has people congregating in close confines for at least several hours. There is nothing special about airlines here. It would be commercial suicide to even try and they know it. Not going to happen.
The whole point is pretty moot anyway when you could have (more easily) picked up something from a surface touching anything on your way in, nothing to do with proximity for a given time at all.
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I knew you'd say that.
So why wouldn't other businesses that currently have zero or lesser current tracing ability also reject people? Like movie theaters, concerts/events, gyms etc anywhere that has people congregating in close confines for at least several hours. There is nothing special about airlines here. It would be commercial suicide to even try and they know it. Not going to happen.
There is one thing that is "special" about airlines that doesn't apply to other businesses. When you walk into a movie theater, concert, gym or other venue while infected with a virus, you don't walk out hundreds if not thousands of miles away, potentially in a different country or even continent along with all the people you've infected. Airlines are a special case, without airlines it's unlikely that Covid would have ever escaped from China and the surrounding areas.
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And government and businesses are slowly losing the ability to capitalise on people's fear, all this stuff isn't going to last too much longer, people's patience is already starting to wear thin.
Maybe. I mean, you're right that people are getting restless and if it all blew over right now we'd be back to where we were pretty soon. But that assumes it will blow over. Suppose we all start going back to work and it blows up again, like it's doing in Singapore
That's the 2nd time someone here has claimed it's flaring back up in places that have eased lockdowns. Do you have data for that? Because it looks like that's not the case, daily case totals have not increased.
Depends what graph you look at, people were lauding Singapore early on when they kept the local transmission under control and stabilised at 100 cases (see log plot from wikipedia below).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-25/singapore-hoped-they-contained-coronavirus-but-second-wave-hit/12172446 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-25/singapore-hoped-they-contained-coronavirus-but-second-wave-hit/12172446)
https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/what-did-singapore-and-hong-kong-do-to-control/12065046 (https://www.abc.net.au/7.30/what-did-singapore-and-hong-kong-do-to-control/12065046)
https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/how-singapore-connected-the-dots-on-coronavirus/ (https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/how-singapore-connected-the-dots-on-coronavirus/)
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I knew you'd say that.
So why wouldn't other businesses that currently have zero or lesser current tracing ability also reject people? Like movie theaters, concerts/events, gyms etc anywhere that has people congregating in close confines for at least several hours. There is nothing special about airlines here. It would be commercial suicide to even try and they know it. Not going to happen.
There is one thing that is "special" about airlines that doesn't apply to other businesses. When you walk into a movie theater, concert, gym or other venue while infected with a virus, you don't walk out hundreds if not thousands of miles away, potentially in a different country or even continent along with all the people you've infected. Airlines are a special case, without airlines it's unlikely that Covid would have ever escaped from China and the surrounding areas.
Of course, but it was a government directive that closed airline travel, not the airlines.
Once the government(s) clear air travel again airlines are going to be doing everything they can to get people back flying. The last thing they are going to do is independently decide to turn away passengers that don't have a tracing app installed, that's madness.
As for the government mandating compulsory use of the app for airline passengers, that's not going to happen either. Doing so would be political suicide, as the people and the airlines would be dead set against it.
It's already been seen here in Australia, our PM hinted that the app could become compulsory, and everyone went instantly "!@#$ that!" and he was forced to back down and make it very clear the app would never be made mandatory.
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People might want to read up on how it works before actually making that assumption. This is not positional tracking. The governments asked for that and Google and Apple told them to get fucked.
If the app can't trace a person's activity, and who they were near, isn't it just useless feel good fluff?
Your phone knows who you have been near by recording IDs it has seen in proximity for longer than a moment or two. Periodically it downloads a list of "reported infected" hash IDs. If you have been near any of them it lets YOU know. That's all. That's enough. "The System" online is literally just a list of infected hashes. Nothing more. No location, no identify (beyond the BT hash).
It seemed to work pretty well for South Korea who never really did do mass lockdowns.
As long as it's temporary, doesn't ask for out-of-proportion permissions on the phone and it's voluntary I'd install it.
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I'm not going to install it myself because of "feature creep" and the fact iOS auto updates everything. That's my only worry.
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I knew you'd say that.
So why wouldn't other businesses that currently have zero or lesser current tracing ability also reject people? Like movie theaters, concerts/events, gyms etc anywhere that has people congregating in close confines for at least several hours. There is nothing special about airlines here. It would be commercial suicide to even try and they know it. Not going to happen.
There is one thing that is "special" about airlines that doesn't apply to other businesses. When you walk into a movie theater, concert, gym or other venue while infected with a virus, you don't walk out hundreds if not thousands of miles away, potentially in a different country or even continent along with all the people you've infected. Airlines are a special case, without airlines it's unlikely that Covid would have ever escaped from China and the surrounding areas.
Of course, but it was a government directive that closed airline travel, not the airlines.
Once the government(s) clear air travel again airlines are going to be doing everything they can to get people back flying. The last thing they are going to do is independently decide to turn away passengers that don't have a tracing app installed, that's madness.
As for the government mandating compulsory use of the app for airline passengers, that's not going to happen either. Doing so would be political suicide, as the people and the airlines would be dead set against it.
It's already been seen here in Australia, our PM hinted that the app could become compulsory, and everyone went instantly "!@#$ that!" and he was forced to back down and make it very clear the app would never be made mandatory.
The UK being slimey business-comes-first Tories, did NOT direct airlines to stop flying. They simply put out advisories to discourage travel. The borders are still fully open and never closed. You are free to fly anywhere you like still, though I believe you will be questioned as to why you believe it's essential. The reason behind this is that all airlines and tour operators would have had to issue refunded or insurance companies pay out cancellation costs if they made it mandatory. So my £1400 holiday I was lucky the operator allowed me to reschedule it in October. But it's still not secure. In October if it's still not wise to travel the airline could put the onus of cancellation onto me and I lose the whole £1400 as a result.
On "air travel made the pandemic worse". The effect of international air travel is over stated. There are many instances of pandemic before air travel. Air travel is not the cause of it spreading internationally, it just makes it faster. Getting on a ship that takes 2 weeks to cross the atlantic with 1 infected person, means the ship docks with 100s or of infected.
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I don't know about the other Covid-Virus applications elsewhere but our newly released version of Covidsafe currently has precise location marked as GPS and Network Based in the permissions section. Also Dave posted a link to a youtube video which shows some initial bugs in the Apple version.
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.health.covidsafe (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=au.gov.health.covidsafe)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZabVCR456Q (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZabVCR456Q)
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
The free market will ultimately take care of that. But they already know who sat next to who, so no need for that.
At that point it is too late. There is a delay between getting infected and becoming contagious. One of the points of using an app is to get an announcement you have been in touch with an infected person a couple of days ago.
It's called tracing app for a reason. It traces who you have been intact with. In the plane example, they already have mandatory contact tracing, in fact it's already one of the best forms of contact tracing currently available. Adding a tracing app adds little value when it comes to airline travel.
It does because with 'airline contact tracing' you can only act after the fact. With an app you can deny people to board who have been in contact with an infected person in the last couple of days. Same for cinemas and other crowded places.
You have to divide the process of dealing with the Corona virus in phases. Phase 1 is the initial outbreak. The end of phase 1 is in sight and things are getting under control. Phase 2 is getting back to a situation where the virus is contained; this means keeping track of the outbreak and isolating infected people. There won't be a 100% coverage but that isn't needed. For as long as the reproduction factor of the virus is below 1 health care doesn't come crashing down.
In phase 3 there will be herd immunity so the virus won't spread that fast naturally. Assuming a worst case scenario Corona outbreaks will become seasonal for the next few years. I would not be surprised if the southern hemisphere is going to show an increase in Corona infections during the winter.
So in the end the choice is simple: Covid tracking app or full lock-down. Pick your poison. I don't like it too but at some point you just have to make the best of a bad situation. Calling it a hoax, a government ploy, etc is not going to make Corona go away. That is just sticking your head in the sand. Also be very careful with interpreting numbers by yourself trying to wish the problem away. Modelling viral outbreaks is a science in itself.
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You're very much in the minority, likely less than 0.001% of the population. The number of people who don't own a smartphone is statistically irrelevant, there's no need to develop a standalone device. If you really wanted to volunteer, I'm sure someone would give you an old smartphone that could be used strictly for the tracking app if that was the desire.
The problem with exaggeration is how silly it looks if you actually do the math: 0.001% = 0.00001 * the population, which in the case of the USA comes out to a mere 3300 people. Enough said, you're way low.
Here are some actual stats for last year, with demographic breakdowns. Top statistic was 81% smart phone penetration with another 15% using cell phones that don't qualify as smart, for a total of 96%. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ (https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/)
I've got two separate elderly neighbors who don't own smartphones. They both have tracfones they keep powered off in their car for emergency situations, but otherwise have not become part of the connected society. One of them (she's almost 90) doesn't even own a computer.
Me, I have a smart phone and can use it. But in reality, I only make sure to keep it with me when I take long-distance trips. It generally stays at home on local trips. And at home, it's really just a phone, even if it's smart. I'd rather use my desktop for everything at home.
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You're very much in the minority, likely less than 0.001% of the population. The number of people who don't own a smartphone is statistically irrelevant, there's no need to develop a standalone device. If you really wanted to volunteer, I'm sure someone would give you an old smartphone that could be used strictly for the tracking app if that was the desire.
The problem with exaggeration is how silly it looks if you actually do the math: 0.001% = 0.00001 * the population, which in the case of the USA comes out to a mere 3300 people. Enough said, you're way low.
Here are some actual stats for last year, with demographic breakdowns. Top statistic was 81% smart phone penetration with another 15% using cell phones that don't qualify as smart, for a total of 96%. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ (https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/)
I've got two separate elderly neighbors who don't own smartphones. They both have tracfones they keep powered off in their car for emergency situations, but otherwise have not become part of the connected society. One of them (she's almost 90) doesn't even own a computer.
Me, I have a smart phone and can use it. But in reality, I only make sure to keep it with me when I take long-distance trips. It generally stays at home on local trips. And at home, it's really just a phone, even if it's smart. I'd rather use my desktop for everything at home.
That is true but it doesn't factor in what people will do if they see a good reason to own / bring a smart phone. Just like you I leave my smartphone mostly at home and only bring it if there is some added value to bringing it along.
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The tracer app being done in Germany is not designed to prevent transmissions as such, no realtime alarm, no Zaphod-style blackening of sunglasses. It's allowing faster tracking of potential transmissions to help with containment. Since we're not under total lockdown (like Spain and Italy or France have been), the app will only alarm you after the fact. Infected people are not expected to break quarantine, though it has happened (recently there was a big "Razzia" in an apartment building where two quarantined infected families were repeatedly leaving home and roaming about. All inhabitants were mass-tested).
The app will be useful only to guide people to seek medical assistance if a past contact has been recently tested positive. No GPS positions will be tracked, no geofencing like in South Korea.
But as usual, we first have to discuss the potential data protection implications for another fortnight or two :palm:
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Because it looks like that's not the case, daily case totals have not increased
Yes, I'd have to agree with you. And here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore) where that last step could be mistaken for a new start. Seems that most of these are in foreign workers too.
However, that doesn't negate the point I was raising. There seems to be a consensus by actual experts that a second wave should be expected (as happened in all previous pandemics - I can probably source links if you need them) if we aren't careful, and come out of preventative measures too soon. IF that happens, which was what I was saying, then we could see a different scenario to the one you proposed.
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So why wouldn't other businesses that currently have zero or lesser current tracing ability also reject people?
Strange how we see things differently. I took his airlines thing to be a single example - other examples would apply, but the forum page isn't long enough to list them all explicitly, and if a single one were missed it would no doubt be flagged and argued over. His 'say' would be my 'for example'.
And, actually, this kind of thing is already done. Some insurance companies stiff young drivers unless they have in-car trackers fitted (sure, they say it's a discount, but that's like the 'discount' you get for paying a fine early). Some companies charge you what they think you can afford to pay, so they are keen to know what social class you are in before quoting a price.
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This shit may quickly become weaponized... Say, airlines may deny you boarding the flight if you do not have the app installed.
The free market will ultimately take care of that. But they already know who sat next to who, so no need for that.
At that point it is too late. There is a delay between getting infected and becoming contagious. One of the points of using an app is to get an announcement you have been in touch with an infected person a couple of days ago.
It's called tracing app for a reason. It traces who you have been intact with. In the plane example, they already have mandatory contact tracing, in fact it's already one of the best forms of contact tracing currently available. Adding a tracing app adds little value when it comes to airline travel.
That's true, although the app could still help, not for tracing per se, but for detecting infected passengers. Of course airlines have names and seats of all passengers, so everything to trace them, but they won't necessarily know who is or isn't infected...
And then, there are other settings in which it could be that some private services require that too, although it seems a bit unpractical.
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The last thing they are going to do is independently decide to turn away passengers that don't have a tracing app installed, that's madness.
You may be right, we'll see. At this point I'm not completely sure.
As I said earlier, I'm looking at what happened for fighting terrorism. There were a number of things that changed regarding boarding planes after that, and that are here to stay. Granted that those measures are only mildly annoying for the passengers, so if something like that was decided for fighting virus spreading, that would have to be relatively light as well. But at this point, I'm not completely rejecting the idea that at least something is going to change for traveling, especially in planes. Just don't know what.
Maybe nothing will change in the end, and maybe this parallel with anti-terrorism is not quite relevant, but I'm really still wondering.
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The signal/noise ratio will not be enough to make it helpful. Logistics on undoing a false positive test result, after notifications have been sent out, well- people are screwed because a false +ve can propagate far unless you are known hikikomori.
I agree with this, and as said earlier, had already concerns about how/why infected people would declare it through the app to begin with. We still have no idea. It sounds like something responsible to do? But there could be also myriads of reasons for not doing so.
And then, even if enough people do this, there's the false detection ratio as you said.
Another related thought - if someone is tested infected, IMO they should NOT get out. As I remember, I think in South Korea, people tested infected would be quarantined - either at home if this is possible (and a quarantine is not just confinement, you don't get out at all), or in hotel rooms if you can't stay at home. I admit I haven't really completely understood how the tracing app worked in SK, but I know they had this quarantine thing.
If we just allow infected people to move around freely - even if there is a high enough probabilty of tracing whoever gets in contact with them (obviously not 100%), this may be questionable.
Yet another point - by the time someone would be tested infected, they may already have been for a little while, without anyone being able to know.
Many dark spots in this thing IMO.
Again it seems to be inspired by some asian initiatives such as in SK, but, while I admit I don't completely know what exactly what the system in SK, I'm sure it was a lot more effective (but a lot more problematic for privacy too), and just one thing among a lot of measures. For instance, I've seen over there, they would disinfect public transports several times a day, something that's probably not possible in many other countries. As to the app itself, it did report everything to central servers so that people could actually look at maps in advance, seeing which spots could be more or less risky to go to. That's prevention, and more effective than just getting out anywhere waiting to be close enough to someone. But yeah it poses major privacy issues.
All in all, the benefit/drawback ratio of this app thing is largely questionable IMO, especially in the way we are thinking of implementing it in the West.
And deeply embedding contact tracing in OSs for future use is a privacy concern, nothing tells us it will be only temporary (it likely won't be).
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I still think you miss understand what the proposed apps do.
Having the app installed would not help airlines or anyone else for that matter. It's not an immunity nor "clean" passport. It will tell you nothing.
The best you could do as an airline is ask to the see the notifications the contact tracer warned you about. To which the response would be, fuck off.
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Yet another point - by the time someone would be tested infected, they may already have been for a little while, without anyone being able to know.
That's the entire point about this thing. You could have been spreading it for up to two weeks before you got symptoms, tested, and then alerted(panic) everyone though the app.
The infected person almost certainly potentially spread it more by touching stuff than just being near people.
Heck, many people get triggered and have breakdowns because they saw a tweet that offended them, imagine what will happen to these poor souls if they are alerted they have came into contact with someone positive...
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Heck, many people get triggered and have breakdowns because they saw a tweet that offended them, imagine what will happen to these poor souls if they are alerted they have came into contact with someone positive...
They get an unceremonious slap in the face by reality and there is no-one to bitch to about it?
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Perhaps these kinds of apps are best seen in the same light as security theater? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_theater (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_theater)
One of the big problems once the pandemic cools off will be to get people to feel comfortable about interacting with the world again, just like people have to be made comfortable to use planes again after a major terrorist incident.
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Yet another point - by the time someone would be tested infected, they may already have been for a little while, without anyone being able to know.
That's the entire point about this thing. You could have been spreading it for up to two weeks before you got symptoms, tested, and then alerted(panic) everyone though the app.
The infected person almost certainly potentially spread it more by touching stuff than just being near people.
Heck, many people get triggered and have breakdowns because they saw a tweet that offended them, imagine what will happen to these poor souls if they are alerted they have came into contact with someone positive...
The jury is still out on that one... Person-to-person transmission still seems the predominant and most likely source of infections.
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There were a number of things that changed regarding boarding planes after that, and that are here to stay.
That's a good point. Nowadays we are limited to 100ml of liquid (is it? Been a while since I flew) and check-in 2 hours before boarding. The cynic in me says the airports love this since it boosts sales of drinks gate-side, and the extra hours of waiting has to be worth a lot of coffee and shop browsing. Indeed, you're forced to walk the gauntlet of a shopping mall in many airports to get from outside to your gate.
I would be suspicious that any measure brought in now that can be monetized is likely to stick around long after the current pandemic 'just to be safe'.
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Yet another point - by the time someone would be tested infected, they may already have been for a little while, without anyone being able to know.
That's the entire point about this thing. You could have been spreading it for up to two weeks before you got symptoms, tested, and then alerted(panic) everyone though the app.
The infected person almost certainly potentially spread it more by touching stuff than just being near people.
Heck, many people get triggered and have breakdowns because they saw a tweet that offended them, imagine what will happen to these poor souls if they are alerted they have came into contact with someone positive...
Exactly.
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There were a number of things that changed regarding boarding planes after that, and that are here to stay.
That's a good point. Nowadays we are limited to 100ml of liquid (is it? Been a while since I flew) and check-in 2 hours before boarding. The cynic in me says the airports love this since it boosts sales of drinks gate-side, and the extra hours of waiting has to be worth a lot of coffee and shop browsing. Indeed, you're forced to walk the gauntlet of a shopping mall in many airports to get from outside to your gate.
I would be suspicious that any measure brought in now that can be monetized is likely to stick around long after the current pandemic 'just to be safe'.
Yup.
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So it seems the UK government thinks it will choose what people actually install.
They want the full centralized contact matching service. I'm probably going to say, no to this one. I've worked in big data.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428)
The risk here is that a lot of people will reject this, then some people will install and begin using Google's offering instead, dividing the data and watering down it's effectiveness.
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So it seems the UK government thinks it will choose what people actually install.
They want the full centralized contact matching service. I'm probably going to say, no to this one. I've worked in big data.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428)
The risk here is that a lot of people will reject this, then some people will install and begin using Google's offering instead, dividing the data and watering down it's effectiveness.
Oh, great. So we have to decide which scum bags we distrust the least.
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LOL UK gov can get to fuck. I hope Apple bans their app :-DD
“ Experts from GCHQ's National Cyber Security Centre have aided the effort “
Translated. Using a previously unreported iOS vulnerability....
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Glad i no longer use or own any type of mobile phone.
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Same here: zero chance that's going to be installed on anything I access, or my partner's kit.
The benefit to the NHS is having centralised data in order to do Big Numbers analysis of spread shouldn't be underestimated, but there is no trust there - they've already sold medical data to Google without a by-your-leave and despite many people explicitly opting out several times. And the "give notifications to people who are most at risk of having got infected, and not to people who are much lower risk" should kill it stone dead - who decides which participant is worthy or being notified?
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https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_a_global_pandemic_calls_for_global_solutions?language=en (https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_a_global_pandemic_calls_for_global_solutions?language=en)
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It's interesting to see that despite this crisis showing the limits and risks of our overly globalized world, some people still want more of that as a solution.
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It's interesting to see that despite this crisis showing the limits and risks of our overly globalized world, some people still want more of that as a solution.
Globalised capitalism != global cooperation. It's more global exploitation. They even use that word.
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It's interesting to see that despite this crisis showing the limits and risks of our overly globalized world, some people still want more of that as a solution.
First of all this isn't the first pandemic ever so there is no real relation between the current crisis and a globalized world. Quite the opposite; because sharing information is much easier nowadays there is much more details on how the pandemic spreads before it hits.
The longer I think about the Corona apps the more I'm convinced Google & Apple should come up with something. These companies have experience dealing with the various privacy laws and the technical implications. Governments usually suck at IT solutions and suffer from the not-invented-here-syndrom too; let the governments just handle the legal side of it. At least in the EU there is a good privacy protection framework in place already. Also it would be good when Corona apps work universally so they can be used across borders as well.
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It would be a bit shit to open up and let Google/Apple run the show and then fine them later for 5 Billion for a technicality GDPR violation.
I think we should campaign strongly for a fully open sourced solution regardless of where it comes from.
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I think we should just put the stupid idea where it belongs.
Just because we can do something doesn’t mean we should. Smartphone apps are a shitty hammer for most problems.
Edit: What really happened was:
1. Sick people
2. Can we contact trace?
3. Someone public sector saw opportunity to leverage it for citizen tracking data
4. Private sector said no because they didn’t want to be responsible for the shit show.
5. Peer pressure
6. Tech companies provide a solution which is balanced
7. Public sector throws shit around and calls Murdoch.
8. Google and Apple are cancer suddenly
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I think we should just put the stupid idea where it belongs.
Just because we can doesn’t mean we should. Smartphone apps are a shitty hammer for most problems.
Agreed.
And, as I said above, we are just trying to mimick a solution that's now believed to have worked for others, but without getting the whole picture, including WHY it worked (as part of a bigger solution.)
Meanwhile, it just looks like the usual political stuff. Let's just do something so we can sell people we did something, and move on.
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So why be told what to do. Why not grass roots it?
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I think we should campaign strongly for a fully open sourced solution regardless of where it comes from.
That seems to be the general idea anyway.
And people who are worried about governments sharing information: this already happens on a large scale. There are many treaties in place for this already. A Corona app is not going to add any new ability for governments.
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campaign strongly for a fully open sourced solution
The issues surrounding this have nothing to do with the source, open or closed. Being open source yet still having a central repository is still no-go. Closed source with no central would be OK if you didn't distrust the author.
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Open source doesn't make one shit of a difference for stuff deployed to a closed binary only app store. There's no guarantee that what is in the source repo wasn't patched before it got to the app store and you can't use reproducible builds in a closed source app store either AFAIK as the signing key would have to be disclosed.
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Open source doesn't make one shit of a difference for stuff deployed to a closed binary only app store. There's no guarantee that what is in the source repo wasn't patched before it got to the app store and you can't use reproducible builds in a closed source app store either AFAIK as the signing key would have to be disclosed.
Not true. You can do a compare between a build from an open source repository and the binary provided in the app-store. These have to be identical.
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In theory. It's not that easy though.
The problem is mostly however that the binaries are signed at Apple's end so you can't side load them. To do that you require access to the signing key that apple hold. You don't have access to that signing key so you can't actually determine if what arrived at the app store and what is downloaded from the app store are the same build because of the nature of the distribution of keys in the keyspace.
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The last thing they are going to do is independently decide to turn away passengers that don't have a tracing app installed, that's madness.
You may be right, we'll see. At this point I'm not completely sure.
As I said earlier, I'm looking at what happened for fighting terrorism. There were a number of things that changed regarding boarding planes after that, and that are here to stay.
Again, those measures were not put in place by the airlines, it was mandated by government authority.
Granted that those measures are only mildly annoying for the passengers, so if something like that was decided for fighting virus spreading, that would have to be relatively light as well. But at this point, I'm not completely rejecting the idea that at least something is going to change for traveling, especially in planes. Just don't know what.
They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.
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So it seems the UK government thinks it will choose what people actually install.
They want the full centralized contact matching service. I'm probably going to say, no to this one. I've worked in big data.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428)
The risk here is that a lot of people will reject this, then some people will install and begin using Google's offering instead, dividing the data and watering down it's effectiveness.
You can understand the vagueness up to now as a way to allow exploration of ideas and not have to publicly backtrack/backdown on previously announced plans. But, the UK (NHS?) official announcements were so painfully massaged it was clear they were intentionally hiding the unpalatable parts until its too late to change them.
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The last thing they are going to do is independently decide to turn away passengers that don't have a tracing app installed, that's madness.
You may be right, we'll see. At this point I'm not completely sure.
As I said earlier, I'm looking at what happened for fighting terrorism. There were a number of things that changed regarding boarding planes after that, and that are here to stay.
Again, those measures were not put in place by the airlines, it was mandated by government authority.
Fair point. If governments do no mandate this kind of thing, there's little reason airlines would on their own. But that could be government-mandated measures.
Granted that those measures are only mildly annoying for the passengers, so if something like that was decided for fighting virus spreading, that would have to be relatively light as well. But at this point, I'm not completely rejecting the idea that at least something is going to change for traveling, especially in planes. Just don't know what.
They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
If this is what will be, I'm good with that. I like having my personal space in planes. But this sure would prevent filling planes, and would lead to further losses for airlines... for who knows how long.
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Gents, please excuse if my inconvenient math is incorrect
but just how is are the airlines going to keep prices low or affordable,
when planes are flown deliberately half empty or half full ?
that's just begging for a cheap takeover acquisition/s and who knows how the new owners may/will seek to cut costs,
or what their priority thinking is relating to servicing of the planes
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Gents, please excuse if my inconvenient math is incorrect
but just how is are the airlines going to keep prices low or affordable,
when planes are flown deliberately half empty or half full ?
that's just begging for a cheap takeover acquisition/s and who knows how the new owners may/will seek to cut costs,
or what their priority thinking is relating to servicing of the planes
they are not flying anywhere, they are all bankrupt or will be very soon
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This is not going to be pretty, even without this half-filling plane thing. Several airlines have already said this could be several years from now until they can serve dividends again, which is likely to put off quite a few shareholders. And if enough of them sell, I'll let you imagine what happens next.
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but just how is are the airlines going to keep prices low or affordable,
Fuel is very nearly free at the moment, so the airlines costs are not what they were. Whether that reduction is enough to cover losing a third of the passengers I don't know, but what's killing the airlines right now (and has already done for some small outfits) is not flying anywhere.
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If there is such mandate, there'll be bailouts. In other words, you and I will foot the bill on one hand, while paying a lot more per ticket on the other.
Regarding the app... I agree with the opinion the silent contagion phase may make it quite innocuous or way too dangerous due to the amount of tracking data gathered about one person's life. Besides, the data proessing engine for all that may be quite expensive and I don't trust Google or Apple to handle that.
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They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
If this is what will be, I'm good with that. I like having my personal space in planes. But this sure would prevent filling planes, and would lead to further losses for airlines... for who knows how long.
You can bet the airlines won't do it willingly without it still being official government advice, thy will want to pack out the planes as quickly as possible, to get them out of extinction of course, but to also capitalise on the low fuel costs at present.
They know that people who fly will want to fly regardless. And this whole hype will die down very quickly in places like Australia with single digit cases unless there is another huge flare-up and media beat-up. The air inside an airplane cabin is actually very clean, it's HEPA filtered and exchanged constantly. So the actual chances of picking up something aren't that high if everyone follows good hygiene and sick people don't come on board and start coughing or sneezing.
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Gents, please excuse if my inconvenient math is incorrect
but just how is are the airlines going to keep prices low or affordable,
when planes are flown deliberately half empty or half full ?
that's just begging for a cheap takeover acquisition/s and who knows how the new owners may/will seek to cut costs,
or what their priority thinking is relating to servicing of the planes
a) Fuel is incredibly cheap at present.
b) The goal is to encourage people back flying again with extremely low airfares, even if they don't make a profit on a route, it's better than going out of business. The airline business is a long term play.
c) The continued flying of planes regardless of number of passengers is vitally important in order to keep pilots certified without requiring simulator time and re-certification. You can't just shut down and airline completely for a couple of months and then just start up again the next day, you'd have no recently active pilots left, they wouldn't be allowed to fly unless you a special exemption.
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This is not going to be pretty, even without this half-filling plane thing. Several airlines have already said this could be several years from now until they can serve dividends again, which is likely to put off quite a few shareholders. And if enough of them sell, I'll let you imagine what happens next.
For every seller there has to be a matching buyer.
But yeah, they will all be hurting for several years at a minimum.
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I'll buy some airline stock if it drops down low enough, I've been eyeing Boeing stock too. I'm in for the long haul and I know it'll come back up eventually.
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They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.
Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.
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I'll bet the win win corporats are currently flying about in their private jets
to 'secret' meetings with other respected fellow dirtbags, behind closed doors in swank hotels
to discuss who gets what part of the crumbled world pie very soon,
at bargain basement prices.. maybe a dollar or two just above FREE
and this time Corona gets the blame for the 'global economic downturn', and no one else,
how do you prosecute and imprison Mr/Ms Corona, right? ;)
Bastards thought of every angle this time around,
even the conspiracy theorist clowns will have no evidence to work with, real or imagined :horse:
oh well, 1930 Reloaded...
we can tell the grandkids in 2066 how we copped it sweet in the Great/est Depression of 2020/21/22
and tell em they have the easy life..
FlashForward to 2066:
"Sorry to hear that grandpa, but our Edu-Phone history app states the lot of you were fear riddled suckers and troll herded idiots,
and deserved what you got for not seeking alternative information, nor bothering to verify the information given or their sources.
So save us the old schooler battler bs Gramps, and hurry up and cash out,
so we can stick your whining med junkie ass in the ground,
and flog off this dump you call home and split the dough,
or build some high rise shoe box apartments and live pretty"
Wait till they find out Gran and Grandpa blew the house at the pokies, and paying rent.. Priceless :D
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The only people I wish this virus on are the people who deny it exists or that it's not serious. Them and orange toddler Trump.
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Wish hard mate, nothing short of deliberate mass poisoning is going to make anything like that happen
Time is running out for the perps, people everywhere are beginning to get fed up and will want BS vendor blood soon :scared:
Not good being on the receiving end of short stick people with knackered businesses, losing their homes put up as security, debt owing on top,
no immediate employment prospects, and trashed family relationships as a result
There'll be a LOT of unhappy campers like that everywhere, the perps better start filling their ancestors dusty carpetbags asap, and hire a fast boat to.. ? :popcorn:
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Nor is it nice hearing about the people you knew dying.
I'm literally currently listening to a work college who has been knocked for 6 by it. Some c*** coughed over him in the supermarket. It's the only thing he can put it down to, but hits 9 out of 10 checklist items for CovId19. He has a wife and 3 kids.
EDIT: and another friend just posted on FB a family member has lost their battle with Covid this morning.
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Hint: There's a "Don't show <idiot> posts" feature in here. Works a treat for those of us who can resist clicking the "Show me <idiot> post" button.
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Back to the original topic: If there's one thing I can see as a plus in the current situation, it is that my cooking has improved a lot, now that I'm preparing all meals for the family every day. Doesn't help my waist line, though, it has also "improved" a lot ;)
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They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.
Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.
It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
Many airlines have already gone bust or will soon go bust regardless of what happens. Any some are already in receivership, in which case getting back operational in any reduced capacity is still good.
Also, most airlines also carry cargo, which is at a premium price at the moment. Less people on a flight means more commercial cargo they can carry on that flight. Some airlines are buying old 747's to press into service as cargo planes to stay in business. So reduced passenger numbers doesn't automatically mean they go bust.
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c) The continued flying of planes regardless of number of passengers is vitally important in order to keep pilots certified without requiring simulator time and re-certification. You can't just shut down and airline completely for a couple of months and then just start up again the next day, you'd have no recently active pilots left, they wouldn't be allowed to fly unless you a special exemption.
For pilots, the mass loss of certification happens about 3 months after they stop flying. Which hasn't happened yet for most of them, but it's coming up fast. Others will be kept current by being rotated in on the remaining flights or with simulator time (if they are lucky enough to be quarantined in the same area as the simulators). Many senior captains will likely be taking early retirement offers, since they face mandatory retirement at age 65 anyway. At least in the case of the large or state-supported airlines. For smaller airlines, this may be an extinction event.
It's not just the people, it's also the planes. Most of the ones that aren't still flying are parked with some level of maintenance mothballing. It'll take time and manpower to reverse the process, inspect and re-certify them for service again when the time comes. If the time comes...airlines are advancing retirement plans for planes as well.
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They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.
Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.
It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
Many airlines have already gone bust or will soon go bust regardless of what happens. Any some are already in receivership, in which case getting back operational in any reduced capacity is still good.
Also, most airlines also carry cargo, which is at a premium price at the moment. Less people on a flight means more commercial cargo they can carry on that flight. Some airlines are buying old 747's to press into service as cargo planes to stay in business. So reduced passenger numbers doesn't automatically mean they go bust.
they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive
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Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc.
I don't think so. I have rarely flown anyone else, and most of the people around me seem to be travelling alone. I assume I would have seen a different picture on flights to holiday resorts, but I don't know what percentage of flights those are.
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They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.
Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.
It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
Maybe you do, but I still don't know for sure what the exact rules will be, and how long they will last.
Over here, the rules for after May 11th have been announced - and apparently, for all transports, the rule will be every other seat in public transports will be empty - so that effectively cuts the capacity in half. Of course they didn't state anything specifically for planes, but if the same rule applies, there won't be this grouping thing.
Note that applying a group approach in planes with 1 seat between "groups" may make it pretty hard (or even almost intractable) to properly distribute the seats in planes to keep them balanced, so I'm not too sure how that would be workable in practice. Just a thought.
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This is not going to be pretty, even without this half-filling plane thing. Several airlines have already said this could be several years from now until they can serve dividends again, which is likely to put off quite a few shareholders. And if enough of them sell, I'll let you imagine what happens next.
For every seller there has to be a matching buyer.
Yeah, but you might not like the end result much.
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so I'm not too sure how that would be workable in practice.
Planes often have rows of three, so it will mean the middle seat is empty, thus reducing by only a third. It would only reduce by a half when there are an even number of seats per row.
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they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive
They sure are nice to fly on though, and significantly faster than the large twins that are taking over those routes. I'll be really sad to see the 747s go.
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so I'm not too sure how that would be workable in practice.
Planes often have rows of three, so it will mean the middle seat is empty, thus reducing by only a third. It would only reduce by a half when there are an even number of seats per row.
In this case, people are not grouped, and the whole point about groups not being workable is valid. You'd never have 2 people next to one another, even if they are of the same group, if you leave the middle seat empty. That was my whole point - considering groups would be a headache, and not really workable. But if you allow "groups" to use the 3 seats, and otherwise leave middle seats empty, that becomes a headache for balancing the planes, which was my point. So, that was for the group thing.
Now regarding the fill ratio, true that wouldn't be -50%. That would be typically -30% if you leave all middle seats empty. Still a significant hit.
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Leaving just the middle seat empty will not give you the necessary separation. Especially not with air nozzles blowing down from the ceiling and distributing the virus aerosole in the entire cabin.
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Leaving just the middle seat empty will not give you the necessary separation. Especially not with air nozzles blowing down from the ceiling and distributing the virus aerosole in the entire cabin.
Fair point, air nozzles would be a problem. Airlines could decide to disable all air nozzles temporarily though. (I suppose you're talking about the individual air nozzles above each seat?)
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Leaving just the middle seat empty will not give you the necessary separation. Especially not with air nozzles blowing down from the ceiling and distributing the virus aerosole in the entire cabin.
Fair point, air nozzles would be a problem. Airlines could decide to disable all air nozzles temporarily though. (I suppose you're talking about the individual air nozzles above each seat?)
Yes, shutting off the air nozzles might be doable. But IMHO, the whole design of ventilating airplane cabins needs overhauling. Creating a controlled draft that moves air upwards or downwards only, not sideways, would certainly be helpful.
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they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive
They sure are nice to fly on though, and significantly faster than the large twins that are taking over those routes. I'll be really sad to see the 747s go.
afaict the 747 is only slightly faster than the modern twins, isn't it just the airlines just flying slower to save fuel?
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they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive
They sure are nice to fly on though, and significantly faster than the large twins that are taking over those routes. I'll be really sad to see the 747s go.
afaict the 747 is only slightly faster than the modern twins, isn't it just the airlines just flying slower to save fuel?
Wikipedia says:
- 747-400: Mach 0.855
- 777: Mach 0.84
- 787: Mach 0.85
Their maximum speeds vary a bit more, but these cruise speeds are very close. I think the idea that speeds are dropping may come from the extremely long routes operated with 777s and A350s, where they need to optimise for consumption to get the range they need on a 20 hour flight. Boeing abandoned plans for a faster aircraft, because of weak response from the airline industry. There isn't that much point in higher speeds when so many hours are consumed by the journey on the ground at each end.
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My recollection was that the 747 was about 50mph faster than most of the twins, a few years ago my friend was on a 747 going from England to the US and the captain mentioned at one point that they were overtaking the 777 that took off some time before from the same airport. I don't actually know the reasons, just that the 747 is typically flown a bit faster.
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I'll buy some airline stock if it drops down low enough, I've been eyeing Boeing stock too. I'm in for the long haul and I know it'll come back up eventually.
Most stock is good to buy nowadays; now is a good time to put money into an investment fund. I just added some money to my (investment fund based) retirement plan.
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I work indirectly for a fund. Spot on. It's utterly fucked now and it will go up. I actually pulled my cash out Q3 last year and blew it on the remains of my mortgage so I am utterly pissing myself with joy at the moment :-DD.
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My recollection was that the 747 was about 50mph faster than most of the twins, a few years ago my friend was on a 747 going from England to the US and the captain mentioned at one point that they were overtaking the 777 that took off some time before from the same airport. I don't actually know the reasons, just that the 747 is typically flown a bit faster.
the rated cruise speeds is 933km/h vs. 903km/h so while it is faster it's not going to make much of a difference even
on a 12 hour flight
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I work indirectly for a fund. Spot on. It's utterly fucked now and it will go up.
I actually pulled my cash out Q3 last year and blew it on the remains of my mortgage so I am utterly pissing myself with joy at the moment :-DD.
:clap: Staying one step ahead or behind (? ) powder indulging economic optimists
and tossing one's potential swindle candidate funds towards a payed off solid roof over your head till this panic fest blows over in.. 2022? :-//
rates high on the list of best options during this custom engineered public 'DIY chaos 'n quarantine'
fwiw I reckon 'Chaos n Quarantine' would be an awesome name for an R n B band 8)
you heard it here first folks :D
BOT: the real fun is coming soon when some news media showcased/featured 'expert' clown/s will predict, forecast, trend, or bring up similar circumstances in past swindles 'downturns'
and the 'better off' middle classes will panic and do a RUN on the banks, supers, air shares, dump stock and assets etc as they do when their cigars fizzle out,
and shaft us all into yet another Depression oblivion for years
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Thanks in Advance :-+
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It was obvious our disaster capitalists were up to something based on some stock tanking and our eminent exit from the EU so I figured being the rat I am I’d jump off the sinking ship ASAP. Didn’t bet on the rest. That was just luck, from my perspective anyway.
The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.
The shit show hasn’t actually begun yet. Watch the slow unwinding and marketing. Will see what we have lost an about 5 years I reckon. Keeping on topic I suggest a lot of us will never return to an office and a lot of us will never return to work. So that’s a whole new problem to deal with which isn’t going to fit into neoliberal ideology.
The take home for me from all this is stay healthy and assume that there is no safety net.
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The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.
You won't know until mass testing for immune globuline reveals the true spread and whether it was enough to build any kind of herd immunity. But when I look at the current mortality figures especially for England, boy, that's not looking good. Something has started eating into the 15-64 year age bracket worse than any influenza in the past years. I hope it's the lockdown working when the curve flattens.
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It was obvious our disaster capitalists were up to something based on some stock tanking and our eminent exit from the EU so I figured being the rat I am I’d jump off the sinking ship ASAP. Didn’t bet on the rest. That was just luck, from my perspective anyway.
The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.
The shit show hasn’t actually begun yet. Watch the slow unwinding and marketing. Will see what we have lost an about 5 years I reckon.
Keeping on topic I suggest a lot of us will never return to an office and a lot of us will never return to work.
So that’s a whole new problem to deal with which isn’t going to fit into neoliberal ideology.
The take home for me from all this is stay healthy and assume that there is no safety net.
That's a good 'safety' gig mate :-+
The lower level pooliticals aka 'in public view cannon fodder', are shafted either way, they let it play out way too long.
so whether they pull the plug now (YES PLEASE ffs)
or keep rolling with it because their mates in businesses and govs that have invested or stupidly borrowed big, to quickly catch the wave to play the crisis supply game,
will be caught with their pants down with no more crisis supply demand, and looking for poolitical heads to roll
or something like that..
i.e. it's coming and won't be pretty for them, or us
btw do these polyticks clowns even wear masks, scrub their hands, one seat space gaps in limos,
and practice Safe Social Distancing at the Lodge bar? :-//
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They sure are nice to fly on though, and significantly faster than the large twins that are taking over those routes. I'll be really sad to see the 747s go.
Got to fly one for the last time late last year on a return flight from Melbourne. Flights into Sydney were being cancelled because of high wind, so we were delayed most of the day. In the end the airline said "bugger this, bring in a 747" and they allowed that to fly in. They actually publicly announced that as the reason they switched planes.
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My recollection was that the 747 was about 50mph faster than most of the twins, a few years ago my friend was on a 747 going from England to the US and the captain mentioned at one point that they were overtaking the 777 that took off some time before from the same airport. I don't actually know the reasons, just that the 747 is typically flown a bit faster.
They use a metric called "Cost Index" on the flight management computer to control the speed or rather power settings for different phases. They also have de-rates for takeoff and climb power. For take off this is about using the maximum power required to be able to reject a take off and stop on the runway, but still make it safely into the air. These are more about saving the engines which suffer more wear at higher EPR and RPM settings.
Cost Index is a 0-1.0 co-efficient between the cost of operating the aircraft per hour and the cost of fuel per hour. If fuel is very expensive on a route, they might fly with it closer to 0.0. If time is more expensive they might fly with it set to 1.0.
Due to the jet stream on atlantic crossings they typlically use 1.0 while heading west into the wind and 0.0 when heading east with the wind.
Even at that the difference in speed between 0.0 and 1.0 at cruise is not that much. There is not much speed available to play with. In cruise config a 747 might have a minimum safe cruise speed of 250knots IAS but at 38,000ft their "Mach limit of 0.86" is only something like 290kts IAS (excuse me not looking it up).
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The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.
You won't know until mass testing for immune globuline reveals the true spread and whether it was enough to build any kind of herd immunity. But when I look at the current mortality figures especially for England, boy, that's not looking good. Something has started eating into the 15-64 year age bracket worse than any influenza in the past years. I hope it's the lockdown working when the curve flattens.
It's mostly because we're in a right state. Smoking, drinking, rampant obesity, poverty and 40 years of marketing sedentary activities and shite food. Nothing to do with the healthcare or the government response. I suspect austerity and crack smoking mismanagement of our two main parties over the last 40 years does have a chunk of responsibility.
And yes the testing will be interesting but AFAIK it doesn't exist with the sensitivity, reproducibility or reliability yet to be viable despite the marketing to the contrary.
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It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
Something like 80% of air fights are taken by 20% of passengers: business travelers, primarily. This will be a huge problem for airlines, as you suggest they might offer incentives if you can book seats in a family grouping but I'd still expect 50% of the aircraft to be empty and many fewer flights.
We really don't know how long this situation could last, and I fully expect to see several major, big name airlines go bust over it.
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It was obvious our disaster capitalists were up to something based on some stock tanking and our eminent exit from the EU so I figured being the rat I am I’d jump off the sinking ship ASAP. Didn’t bet on the rest. That was just luck, from my perspective anyway.
The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.
The shit show hasn’t actually begun yet. Watch the slow unwinding and marketing. Will see what we have lost an about 5 years I reckon.
Keeping on topic I suggest a lot of us will never return to an office and a lot of us will never return to work.
So that’s a whole new problem to deal with which isn’t going to fit into neoliberal ideology.
The take home for me from all this is stay healthy and assume that there is no safety net.
That's a good 'safety' gig mate :-+
The lower level pooliticals aka 'in public view cannon fodder', are shafted either way, they let it play out way too long.
so whether they pull the plug now (YES PLEASE ffs)
or keep rolling with it because their mates in businesses and govs that have invested or stupidly borrowed big, to quickly catch the wave to play the crisis supply game,
will be caught with their pants down with no more crisis supply demand, and looking for poolitical heads to roll
or something like that..
i.e. it's coming and won't be pretty for them, or us
btw do these polyticks clowns even wear masks, scrub their hands, one seat space gaps in limos,
and practice Safe Social Distancing at the Lodge bar? :-//
Your last point actually made me laugh. Firstly because that's exactly how our political elite all ended up with this. We had Boris shaking hands with people in hospital and basically being a wally.
Secondly, because I had a run in with the masons a few years ago. They are complete bastards and need to be eliminated from the planet.
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It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
Something like 80% of air fights are taken by 20% of passengers: business travelers, primarily. This will be a huge problem for airlines, as you suggest they might offer incentives if you can book seats in a family grouping but I'd still expect 50% of the aircraft to be empty and many fewer flights.
I wonder how many business travellers travel alone? If they travel as a team, with colleagues, will they be treated like a family unit, who can sit close together? Wouldn't it be strange to see holiday resort routes become the only profitable ones, because they offer better loading rate.
We really don't know how long this situation could last, and I fully expect to see several major, big name airlines go bust over it.
I wonder what that really means? It seems most American airlines are perpetually in Chapter 11, and treat this as normal. In this state they buy new planes and engage in mergers and acquisitions like they were on solid financial ground. Its a weird setup.
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It will go the same as it always does. The risks will be the public's (aka bailouts), but the profits will be private, aka bonuses, dividends and insane salaries.
Unless we take a stand and demand "No more bail outs!"
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(Re: Last few pages)
Flights??!! Why aren't there NONE at the moment!!! (Except for very special circumstances/emergencies).
Half the World doesn't really take this seriously. Oh... numbers are down, so let's RELAX everything...
Yay... bring on the 2nd wave. The U.S. now has over A MILLION affected! Most states here in Australia
now have 1 or ZERO new cases for 1 or 2 days??? Hmmm... I wonder why! :P
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Something like 80% of air fights are taken by 20% of passengers: business travelers, primarily. This will be a huge problem for airlines, as you suggest they might offer incentives if you can book seats in a family grouping but I'd still expect 50% of the aircraft to be empty and many fewer flights.
We really don't know how long this situation could last, and I fully expect to see several major, big name airlines go bust over it.
Didn't know business travelers were the biggest troublemakers, but I guess the heavy drinking probably has something to do with it ;)
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This April the United Kingdom recorded the sunniest April on record. No flights and clear skies a coincidence? The global reduction in global dimming has led to the discovery of a new colour all over the world. Blue. Enjoy.
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I live near Heathrow and it's dead too with blue sky (well grey and pissing it down). Just cargo planes!
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Yes, there are almost no plane trails in the sky anymore. Interesting how much they can clutter up the sky in some areas when there's normal traffic.
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Close to Amsterdam Schiphol, we had plains flying over us every 3 mins / 24hours... now its 1 or less an hour.
but not complaining... i also do fly.....
but must say its a lot nicer being in the garden and able to talk ;-)
:-DD
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Flights??!! Why aren't there NONE at the moment!!! (Except for very special circumstances/emergencies).
The freighters are still flying, although I think even their numbers are down.
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This April the United Kingdom recorded the sunniest April on record. No flights and clear skies a coincidence? The global reduction in global dimming has led to the discovery of a new colour all over the world. Blue. Enjoy.
Nope. The skies are always relatively clear in the spring (in Europe).
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This April the United Kingdom recorded the sunniest April on record. No flights and clear skies a coincidence? The global reduction in global dimming has led to the discovery of a new colour all over the world. Blue. Enjoy.
Nope. The skies are always relatively clear in the spring (in Europe).
Maybe in your part of Europe that is true. Its not true of the UK, especially around Easter. The skies have been really blue for the last few weeks, although we finally have the more usual 100% cloud cover and rain right now.
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This April the United Kingdom recorded the sunniest April on record. No flights and clear skies a coincidence? The global reduction in global dimming has led to the discovery of a new colour all over the world. Blue. Enjoy.
Nope. The skies are always relatively clear in the spring (in Europe).
There's a reason for the term 'april showers' - we're used to varied weather with bursts of sunlight in April. We've had a remarkably clear month. I'm not about to conclude it's down to air travel, however.
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This April the United Kingdom recorded the sunniest April on record. No flights and clear skies a coincidence? The global reduction in global dimming has led to the discovery of a new colour all over the world. Blue. Enjoy.
Nope. The skies are always relatively clear in the spring (in Europe).
There's a reason for the term 'april showers' - we're used to varied weather with bursts of sunlight in April. We've had a remarkably clear month. I'm not about to conclude it's down to air travel, however.
We had the same phenomenon when that Islandic volcano with the unspeakable name erupted a couple of years ago and completely stopped air traffic all around Europe. The most boring sunsets I've ever seen.
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There's a reason for the term 'april showers'
It depends what kind of websites you are visiting. :-DD
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There's a reason for the term 'april showers' - we're used to varied weather with bursts of sunlight in April. We've had a remarkably clear month. I'm not about to conclude it's down to air travel, however.
Nonsense. "April showers" are named after the yearly month we shower.
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There's a reason for the term 'april showers' - we're used to varied weather with bursts of sunlight in April. We've had a remarkably clear month. I'm not about to conclude it's down to air travel, however.
Nonsense. "April showers" are named after the yearly month we shower.
No. Its the month when we don't need to shower, because the rain does an adequate job.
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No. Its the month when we don't need to shower, because the rain does an adequate job.
As if people would shower 11 months of the year. Imagine the decadence!
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No. Its the month when we don't need to shower, because the rain does an adequate job.
As if people would shower 11 months of the year. Imagine the decadence!
People are decadent these days. They even expect their showers to be heated.
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No. Its the month when we don't need to shower, because the rain does an adequate job.
As if people would shower 11 months of the year. Imagine the decadence!
not showering ought to help with social distancing
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not showering ought to help with social distancing
Lazy people just buy a spray can with sweat stench.
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I work at a large tech company as a software validation engineer and have the luxury of working from home. However, I'm starting to miss my co-workers after being stuck at home for almost two months and counting!
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With all this freaking out on masks and shopping trolley handle dangers :scared: :scared:
has anyone discussed Corona embedded flatulence yet?
you know the thing > f**ts (hint: not 'facts')
Seriously, YES seriously! when people release internal cesspool corkers they can no longer restrain without pain, in a public place,
it's got better distance and knockdown potential than anything escaping the sides of 'ER Ward wannabee' $2 Shop masks
Come on, think about it, so much for the 'experts' and their 'statistics' overlooking this potential corona-geddon kickstarter
it appears they're earning their paychecks either doing a halfassed job of it or full of shyte and not qualified at all ::)
Sweat and BO/body odors carry well too as they woft over, no one is touching on that topic either
fwiw I looked up 'april showers' www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=April%20Shower (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=April%20Shower)
and will stick with warm H20 and soap during April and beyond, thank you,
YMMV
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fwiw I looked up 'april showers' www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=April%20Shower (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=April%20Shower)
and will stick with warm H20 and soap during April and beyond, thank you,
YMMV
:-DD
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I work at a large tech company as a software validation engineer and have the luxury of working from home. However, I'm starting to miss my co-workers after being stuck at home for almost two months and counting!
We've been doing some virtual happy hour events with our teams, hop on a video chat, have a beer and talk to each other, it's not quite the same as hanging out face to face but it has the advantage that I can wear comfy pajama pants and my colleagues are none the wiser.
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And government and businesses are slowly losing the ability to capitalise on people's fear, all this stuff isn't going to last too much longer, people's patience is already starting to wear thin.
Maybe. I mean, you're right that people are getting restless and if it all blew over right now we'd be back to where we were pretty soon. But that assumes it will blow over. Suppose we all start going back to work and it blows up again, like it's doing in Singapore
That's the 2nd time someone here has claimed it's flaring back up in places that have eased lockdowns. Do you have data for that? Because it looks like that's not the case, daily case totals have not increased.
Just saw this picture in the news:
[attachimg=1]
According to the article the lockdown was released on the 19th of March and 2 weeks later infections started to rise at a faster pace than before.
Just looking at a country as a whole is not a good idea. Even in small countries (like the Netherlands) the number of infections vary wildly between areas so the epidemic flaring up in one area can easely get lost in the noise of the country's total.
Generic disclaimer: you have to be very careful with trying to interpret Corona numbers yourself; it is easy to get to the wrong conclusions.
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I work at a large tech company as a software validation engineer and have the luxury of working from home. However, I'm starting to miss my co-workers after being stuck at home for almost two months and counting!
We do a morning video call at 09:15 everyday. It's completely informal, not project specific, just our wider team. It can help you stay feeling like you are in the loop. Some mornings it's a good laugh. Funny stories, banter, anecdotes, Netflix recommendations etc. Then a basic management "state of play update", basically company and project news which takes about 2 minutes.
If you don't have something like this already, throw some initiative at it and either set it up yourself or propose it.
Also, opening a group IM chat every morning with everyone in your team is always a good way to stay connected and team work.
I have basically been working remotely for the last 3 or 4 years as I have been working in one or more Belfast offices on a computer in London for an American company. If you include split region teams, it's more like the last 8 years.
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Just saw this picture in the news:
(Attachment Link)
According to the article the lockdown was released on the 19th of March and 2 weeks later infections started to rise at a faster pace than before.
Just looking at a country as a whole is not a good idea. Even in small countries (like the Netherlands) the number of infections vary wildly between areas so the epidemic flaring up in one area can easely get lost in the noise of the country's total.
Very true. Look at New York compared to the USA. Hokkaido, being an island, has a certain amount of insularity from the rest of Japan. Its more rural (think of the famous Hokkaido cattle industry), which you might think would give them natural social distancing. I wonder of that second wave of covid-19 cases is actually concentrated in higher population places like Sapporo?
Generic disclaimer: you have to be very careful with trying to interpret Corona numbers yourself; it is easy to get to the wrong conclusions.
You need to have fairly detailed local knowledge to make much sense of any of the available data. It tends to look puzzling when its about somewhere you don't know well. This is especially true when you don't know about some of the crazy recommendations people have been given by local short sighted politicians. When its about somewhere you do know well its easier to see a bunch of plausible reasons for the data.
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I'll be following the state of Georgia with interest, they've been the most aggressive at relaxing the restrictions recently and I think it will be a good indication of the result of doing so. I hope it all works out for the best and other states can follow however I am concerned that loosening up too early will result in a second wave and result in a second wave of lockdowns considerably more painful than just doing it all in one go.
The UW has recently developed what is apparently a fairly reliable antibody test which is now available to the public. I'm considering getting checked to find out if what I had a while back was a mild case of Covid or something else. I've now had several coworkers with confirmed Covid infections though none that I've been in proximity to in months and so far none with serious complications. One said he felt horrible for a week and a half and still isn't 100% back to normal but I'm pretty sure he'll be ok.
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find out if what I had a while back was a mild case of Covid or something else.
Suppose it turns out you did have it. Would you be going back to work (although you don't normally, I think, so rephrase that to, may, hanging out down the pub)? I don't think there is confirmation yet that having it confers future immunity, so there is still a small chance you could catch it and/or pass it on again.
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Suppose it turns out you did have it. Would you be going back to work (although you don't normally, I think, so rephrase that to, may, hanging out down the pub)? I don't think there is confirmation yet that having it confers future immunity, so there is still a small chance you could catch it and/or pass it on again.
I'm working from home anyway so I'm not going to go back to the office for a while, it would be nice to see my coworkers but I really don't mind working from home and am content to do so almost indefinitely. There is very little I can do at the office that I can't do from home so even if the risk is low so is the reward.
I would however feel a lot more comfortable doing things like going to the hardware store to pick up lumber and supplies for some projects around my house, going over to visit my mom, maybe having a friend over for a beer in the back yard or heading to the park to fly model airplanes. I'm not going to just full on go jump into a big crowd of people but it would be useful information in the risk analysis involved in day to day life. Nothing is ever completely safe, the risk is never zero, but if it turns out I've already had Covid then I can be reasonably confident of having at least *some* degree of immunity, as well as that would suggest that I'm unlikely to get seriously ill even if I do get it again since I was only mildly sick with whatever I did have. Sure it's possible it could hit me much harder and kill me but I could croak at any time for any number of reasons, it's all about informed decisions and calculated risk.
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Off-topic posts removed.
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Off-topic posts removed.
You forgot most of ED's posts.
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We found out yesterday that the shelter in place has been lifted here in Florida but doesn't actually start Monday. There will be a phase one where retail stores can reopen to 25% of capacity. Restaurants can use outdoor seating if it is 6 feet apart. Elective surgeries will be resumed. However, Barber shops, hair and nail salons are not allowed to open yet as are gyms and bars. There is no mention when phase 2 will begin. I assume that will depend on how phase 1 works. No word right now on state and local government office openings though it seems some will start opening on Monday.
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Working from home, where data exchange is the key to communication, works fine.
The digital video part of video conferencing works well enough. Still images like computer screens are transferred just fine. Adjustable video quality works well enough, particularly since it isn't all that vital anyway.
However, the deficiencies of the digital audio part of video conferencing are clearly being revealed. Long-distance users in particular often aren't clear, depending on the way the multiple digital voice streams are added together.
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However, the deficiencies of the digital audio part of video conferencing are clearly being revealed. Long-distance users in particular often aren't clear, depending on the way the multiple digital voice streams are added together.
It is best if everyone uses a good quality headset. On or multiple phones in hands free mode is asking for trouble.
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We found out yesterday that the shelter in place has been lifted here in Florida but doesn't actually start Monday.
Similar scenario here in Texas, but it started on May 1st (yesterday). Store traffic was higher than normal, but most everyone was using mask.
However, the deficiencies of the digital audio part of video conferencing are clearly being revealed. Long-distance users in particular often aren't clear, depending on the way the multiple digital voice streams are added together.
It is best if everyone uses a good quality headset. On or multiple phones in hands free mode is asking for trouble.
I always had trouble with the digital stream delays and distortions to voice, and the higher usage nowadays does not improve things at all.
We use Webex and, even when the system calls are done directly to everyone's cellphone, voice is still routed to IP (the Webex software detects activity and controls mute per individual).
A per peeve of mine was always the lack of interest in expanding the bandwidth of the voice channel when digitalization became the de facto standard. You can understand a person in front of you much better than over a phone, and the need to spell words or repeat things like phone numbers is much less needed in person.
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However, the deficiencies of the digital audio part of video conferencing are clearly being revealed. Long-distance users in particular often aren't clear, depending on the way the multiple digital voice streams are added together.
It is best if everyone uses a good quality headset. On or multiple phones in hands free mode is asking for trouble.
It is best if the moderator is aggressive about cutting off the audio from anyone who doesn't take reasonable care. Conference calls are regularly ruined by an idiot letting things like background noise in their room create a mix that's hard for everyone on the call to understand.
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We use Webex and, even when the system calls are done directly to everyone's cellphone, voice is still routed to IP (the Webex software detects activity and controls mute per individual).
This seems to be mostly a Webex problem, rather than an IP audio problem. Other systems do much better. Many companies who use Webex only use it for the shared desktop functionality, and use another approach for sharing audio.
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We use Webex and, even when the system calls are done directly to everyone's cellphone, voice is still routed to IP (the Webex software detects activity and controls mute per individual).
This seems to be mostly a Webex problem, rather than an IP audio problem. Other systems do much better. Many companies who use Webex only use it for the shared desktop functionality, and use another approach for sharing audio.
Agreed. Google hangouts and Goto meeting for example offer excellent sound quality. Needing to repeat yourself is definitely a thing of the past unless you use a crappy service or your internet connection is really bad.
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I stumbled on this video showing the empty streets of Paris:
https://youtu.be/XgafnMKTuGU
Normally the streets in Paris are freakishly busy so seeing them empty like this is so surreal that it is a bit scary.
Oh, and try to spot the hommage to Hergé 8)
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I stumbled on this video showing the empty streets of Paris:
https://youtu.be/XgafnMKTuGU (https://youtu.be/XgafnMKTuGU)
Normally the streets in Paris are freakishly busy so seeing them empty like this is so surreal that it is a bit scary.
Oh, and try to spot the hommage to Hergé 8)
If you want to make a post apocalyptic movie, this is your chance. It won't be long before those streets fill up again.
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If you want to make a post apocalyptic movie, this is your chance. It won't be long before those streets fill up again.
I've been tempted to head into the city with camera and a big PRESS vest ;D
But I think the peak of it is well over in Sydney now, I missed my chance.
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We found out yesterday that the shelter in place has been lifted here in Florida but doesn't actually start Monday.
Similar scenario here in Texas, but it started on May 1st (yesterday). Store traffic was higher than normal, but most everyone was using mask.
I am still using a mask and gloves as I am one of those 'at risk' being a diabetic and I had a fairly serious operation about a month and a half ago. What I do see is a growing number of idiots wearing masks below their nose. Really? Ron White said it correctly, you can't fix stupid.
It is best if the moderator is aggressive about cutting off the audio from anyone who doesn't take reasonable care. Conference calls are regularly ruined by an idiot letting things like background noise in their room create a mix that's hard for everyone on the call to understand.
We just shifted to Microsoft Team Meeting. I always mute my phone myself unless I need to speak. I have dogs and no one needs to hear them barking. Regularly, someone is getting muted because of background noise. You would think after years of weekly conference calls everyone would get the hang of this. We're field services techs, we're supposed to understand this stuff. :palm:
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On conference calls a good quality noise cancelling headset is a must. In work (and at home) I use a Logitec headset. On calls it can be spooky that the people using them are so clear is sounds like they are sitting beside you and they don't carry the office (or home) noise either.
When people show up on calls with their iPhone headphones I cringe. Total trash.
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We just shifted to Microsoft Team Meeting. I always mute my phone myself unless I need to speak.
Yep, that's what I do. Except one day, for some reason I didn't. Not realising I was not muted, I decided to burp. People on the call halted for just a second and then carried on and that was when I noticed I wasn't muted! I figured they didn't know which one of did it, but it was very funny.
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I was thinking this morning, how fortunate it is this didn't happen over 30 years ago, when I was my nephew's age. Back then, the Internet was in its infancy and few people could work from home so the economic impact would have been worse. On the other hand, some of the people who experienced the 1918 pandemic would have still been around and would been able to provide advice and support to deal with it, fewer people flew around the world spreading the virus and a large part of the world was still sealed off by the iron curtain.
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I was thinking this morning, how fortunate it is this didn't happen over 30 years ago, when I was my nephew's age. Back then, the Internet was in its infancy and few people could work from home so the economic impact would have been worse. On the other hand, some of the people who experienced the 1918 pandemic would have still been around and would been able to provide advice and support to deal with it, fewer people flew around the world spreading the virus and a large part of the world was still sealed off by the iron curtain.
This happened in 1957. This happened in 1968. We just lived with what was happening, and got on with our lives. Suspiciously, if you look up either of those pandemics they say a million people died. The same round number being quoted for 2 events sounds suspiciously like hand waving, so its hard to know how much to trust the numbers. The death toll would no doubt be higher this time without some isolation, as there are more people around, living closer, and there has been a huge increase in the number of elderly people in the world, who are showing a high death rate from covid-19.
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I was thinking this morning, how fortunate it is this didn't happen over 30 years ago, when I was my nephew's age. Back then, the Internet was in its infancy and few people could work from home so the economic impact would have been worse. On the other hand, some of the people who experienced the 1918 pandemic would have still been around and would been able to provide advice and support to deal with it, fewer people flew around the world spreading the virus and a large part of the world was still sealed off by the iron curtain.
This happened in 1957. This happened in 1968. We just lived with what was happening, and got on with our lives. Suspiciously, if you look up either of those pandemics they say a million people died.
I did some reading into these pandemics. It seems these where multi-year events and it is not like people wheren't travelling at all back then. My parents have not mentioned these pandemics so far because appearantly no drastic measures where taken. If you look at the mortality rate of the Covid-19 virus which seems to be around the 0.5% to 1% we could be looking at 10 million to 100 million dead world wide. Remember most parts of the world are just 2 months in.
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This happened in 1957. This happened in 1968. We just lived with what was happening, and got on with our lives. Suspiciously, if you look up either of those pandemics they say a million people died.
I did some reading into these pandemics. It seems these where multi-year events and it is not like people wheren't travelling at all back then. My parents have not mentioned these pandemics so far because appearantly no drastic measures where taken. If you look at the mortality rate of the Covid-19 virus which seems to be around the 0.5% to 1% we could be looking at 10 million to 100 million dead world wide. Remember most parts of the world are just 2 months in.
No drastic measures were taken in 1957 or 1968. We just went on with our lives. I was a toddler in 1957, but I was in high school in 1968 and well aware of what was going on. Schools didn't use any special procedures to reduce infection. Neither did businesses. Travel in 1957 was quite limited, but by 1968 the airline industry was big enough to spread everything everywhere quite quickly. I wouldn't call the 1968 one multi-year, but things definitely spread slower back then, even the normal annual flu strains.
If 1% of people is up 100 million, you seem to think that up to 10 billion people will be infected. There are only 8 billion people, so where are the other 2 billion going to come from? ;) People get freaked out by the idea of biological warfare, but if you look at publicly available research nothing ever proves infectious enough for everyone to get it.
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The 1918 pandemic was a world-wide event because there was a war going on. Massive troop movements by all involved on crowded land and sea transports are an excellent way to spread disease.
I was an infant in 1957. Supposedly it came to the US via Navy personnel.
Similarly, the 1968 pandemic probably was brought to the US by returning Vietnam troops.
This time around, we didn't need the military. We civilians were doing plenty of international travel.
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The 1918 pandemic was a world-wide event because there was a war going on. Massive troop movements by all involved on crowded land and sea transports are an excellent way to spread disease.
I was an infant in 1957. Supposedly it came to the US via Navy personnel.
Similarly, the 1968 pandemic probably was brought to the US by returning Vietnam troops.
This time around, we didn't need the military. We civilians were doing plenty of international travel.
These things get spread by numerous vectors. The 1968 pandemic appeared to start in Hong Kong. Hong Kong was becoming a major air transport hub by that time, and was already a major sea transport hub. Most long distance ocean liners called into HK at that time, and there were quite a lot of those, not all of them pleasure boats. People emigrating from Europe to Australia still mostly went by sea, and called into HK, at that time. Of course, there were also the US troops passing through HK on their way to and from Vietnam. All of this was enough to spread the virus everywhere quite fast.
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If 1% of people is up 100 million, you seem to think that up to 10 billion people will be infected. There are only 8 billion people, so where are the other 2 billion going to come from? ;)
You missed 10 million to 100million. Not just 100million. My numbers are an order of magnitude estimate just to try and compare the severity of the current pandemic versus those of starting in 1957 and 1968.
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That's called a "Herald wave" when you have a small epidemic one year and then most of the mortality hits the next. I don't think that anybody knows what is likely to happen. Some people with the novel coronavirus also get sick again. There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened. Hopefully by next year they will know more.
All the kids around here are out of school, and you cant stop kids from playing.
So the kids are out and about somewhat, although its muted. There is also this custom around here in sururbia of parents driving their kids is caravans together for kids birthday parties, in separate cars, every few days there will be one, they all honk their horns like a wedding. That way they dont feel imprisoned. I can understand that. People are managing the best they can, going to the grocery the bare minimum number of times, etc. .
I'm glad that I don't have kids, If I did, I'd be concerned about them missing so much school.
The area where I live is in the midst of it now and lots of people are dying. Medical staff are burning out. But still acting very professionally. We need a cure that works, badly.
They did close down a lot during the 1917-1919 flu pandemic.
I did some reading into these pandemics. It seems these where multi-year events and it is not like people wheren't travelling at all back then. My parents have not mentioned these pandemics so far because appearantly no drastic measures where taken. If you look at the mortality rate of the Covid-19 virus which seems to be around the 0.5% to 1% we could be looking at 10 million to 100 million dead world wide. Remember most parts of the world are just 2 months in.
I have a good question, What are the best home internet setups for good computer security and low latency?
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There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened.
I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!)
If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work?
Maybe the answer is obvious, and if so, I'm going to learn something about vaccines.
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There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened.
I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!)
If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work?
Maybe the answer is obvious, and if so, I'm going to learn something about vaccines.
Some viruses don't act predictably, this new one being an example. Its obvious that its extremely unpredictable and thats why this particular epidemic is taking a deep toll on doctors and nurses.
I have been trying to figure out a good answer that expresses what I feel I know with accuracy, while not overreaching.
One area where there is a lot of activity is imune system adjuvants. There were discovered by looking at the way that some substances magnify the ability of the immune system to remember some things when they present themselves to the immune system the same time as something else.
These are substances that make the body remember a substance with an extra kick.. But from what little I know that can also be very problematic, its very complicated, the thing that seems to be killing people so frequently with covid 19 is an immune response thats delayed too long and then its too strong, the delayed, overstrong immune response is part of what is killing people.
>:(
Some viruses basically just effect peoples immune systems they deplete certain kinds of cells in the immune system. Example: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23087407 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23087407)
This is an interesting article about the virus vaccine industry which explains why lots of viruses still have no vaccines.
Why are vaccines against many human viral diseases still unavailable; an historic perspective?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7166819/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7166819/)
Here is another one on the situation in 2006. (Right around the time of SARS-CoV-1 )
New viral vaccines.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16364754 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16364754)
I'm not qualified to take much of a stab at this, as thats a subject I know very little on. What I know could be summarized in a few pragraphs. There are lots of reasons why a vaccine, even if it is available might not work in everybody or certain groups, even groups of the same age..
One thought - there are big moral and liability issues, a vaccine might be effective in some situations but not in others, if so, they likely dont want people to think they are protected when they are not. Also some vaccines seem (from what Ive read) actually make things worse if you get some other similar illness, it seems this happened with HPV vaccines made a few years ago The vaccine many people got was adquate protection for some strains but it put people at higher risk for HPV and I think also some cancers if they got others, So now there is a debate about what they should do.
There is a lot of focus on vaccines because at least in the past that was the most common way of fighting viral diseases.
But the economics of vaccines may not be what they want, take for example Gilead's treatment for hepatitis C. It cured the very costly disease but it was itself insanely costly.
With coronaviruses, they mutate very quickly, many coronaviruses mutate so much there is a very real chance that they would mutate into something else enough for a vaccine you got now to no longer to be effective against a very similar virus a few years from now.
Here is a good unknown question, why do people on ships tend to get it in such high numbers? Is it just them being confined in fairly close quarters? Because it seems those cuise ships were pretty spacious and once the coronavirus became an issue on some ships everybody was confined to quarters. But they still continued to have more and more people test positive. Maybe there is some aspect of ships that they all share that makes them an ideal environment for coronavirus transmission?
You won't know until mass testing for immune globuline reveals the true spread and whether it was enough to build any kind of herd immunity. But when I look at the current mortality figures especially for England, boy, that's not looking good. Something has started eating into the 15-64 year age bracket worse than any influenza in the past years. I hope it's the lockdown working when the curve flattens.
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There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened.
I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!)
If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work?
Maybe the answer is obvious, and if so, I'm going to learn something about vaccines.
Nobody knows if a vaccine will be feasible, and if it's feasible whether it will be very effective. The development of vaccines has always been rather patchy. When they say 18 months to a vaccine you need to check carefully which end of their anatomy the statement came from.
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There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened.
I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!)
If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work?
If I add up all the information I have read so far I think there are a couple things to be aware off:
1) The flu symptoms caused bij Covid-19 are not that bad.
2) It is the immune system going into overdrive what is causing the deaths.
3) The Covid-19 virus is probably going to become a seasonal recurring 'flu' for the next couple of years.
So in my opinion what is needed is a 2 pronged approach:
1) A vaccine which dampens the flu effects like a regular flu vaccine
2) Medicines to stop the immune system from damaging the healthy tissue.
And that is what is already happening. There is research going on to create a vaccine to combat the virus and doctors are experimenting with (existing) medicines to keep the immune system in check. Both still need a lot of research because how the virus works isn't fully understood yet.
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There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened.
I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!)
If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work?
Maybe the answer is obvious, and if so, I'm going to learn something about vaccines.
Nobody knows if a vaccine will be feasible, and if it's feasible whether it will be very effective. The development of vaccines has always been rather patchy. When they say 18 months to a vaccine you need to check carefully which end of their anatomy the statement came from.
Alright then - that's what I thought as well.
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There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened.
I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!)
If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work?
If I add up all the information I have read so far I think there are a couple things to be aware off:
1) The flu symptoms caused bij Covid-19 are not that bad.
Yeah. Well, according to some that have had it, it's no picnic either. No idea the percentage of people for whom it's light or bad, and if this % is similar to seasonal flu.
2) It is the immune system going into overdrive what is causing the deaths.
That's what I've understood too. Which would also explain why being slightly immunodepressed, as counter-intuitive as it looked, seems to actually help NOT getting into this state, and why some of the possible drugs that are currently being tested are immunomodulators.
3) The Covid-19 virus is probably going to become a seasonal recurring 'flu' for the next couple of years.
I don't think we have a clue about that. I don't think that happened with the previous SARS-CoV, for instance? (I may be wrong about this, I actually don't remember much of it.)
So in my opinion what is needed is a 2 pronged approach:
1) A vaccine which dampens the flu effects like a regular flu vaccine
Maybe, but I don't know how that works. That's maybe where my knowledge stops. If it ever happened that the immune system could not get immunity (as hypothesized by some), a vaccine is not likely to work, and I don't know if it could work to "dampen" things then. Of course that's the worst-case scenario.
2) Medicines to stop the immune system from damaging the healthy tissue.
Yeah, as far as treatment goes, that'll probably be either some antiviral that works against it, or some immunomodulator, or a combination of both.
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At the same time, there are strategies that might prove to be useful against lots and lots of viruses, (or maybe not!) (Example of how this might work (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6164078/))
More general overview (https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2015/184241/)
This might help a lot of people come through this alive (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6079135/)
I do intend to keep on being paranoid until the number of sick people falls to a lot lower than it is now. People have died in my neighborhood. Not people I knew but people nontheless.
I'm avoiding contact as best as I can. When I get stuff in the mail, I just put it aside for a couple of days, then open it.
It sure would suck to go on like this forever.
Nobody knows if a vaccine will be feasible, and if it's feasible whether it will be very effective. The development of vaccines has always been rather patchy. When they say 18 months to a vaccine you need to check carefully which end of their anatomy the statement came from.
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From what I've been seeing, the symptoms are mild to moderate for the vast majority of people who get it, with apparently a large but as of yet unknown percentage possibly as high as 50% who have no symptoms at all, or symptoms so mild they don't realize they're sick.
But for a not insignificant percentage of people the symptoms are severe and there's no way to know ahead of time what it will be like for any given person. If it was contracted by numbers similar to the seasonal flue it wouldn't be so bad, but this thing is being contracted by huge numbers of people.
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Anyone knows why it spreads so easily compared to seasonal flu?
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Youre right, it does seem to spread more.
Thats quite possibly just the normal exponential rate of increase. There is a number based on how many people its expected to be spread to which varies - its related to how well we are preventing transmission. In a city like New York without social distancing in normal times its virtually impossible to not spread a virus like this because people spend a lot of time indoors next to other people. many buildings dont have windows that open. If somebody sneezes elements of whatever virus they expel remain in the air for a significant amount of time if the building doesnt have powered ventilation that can exchange the air in the rooms several times an hour. Also, the optium temperature for corona virus is kind of cool. Hot weather reduces transmission a lot. The next cold winter people are going to have to find a balance between heating and ventilation and or getting sick. Not using the heat to save energy is going to make the likelihood of illness higher. As will constant use of AC.
The "Harald Wave" is the first season and then there may be one next winter-spring and sometimes even the one after that. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=herald+wave (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=herald+wave)
And government and businesses are slowly losing the ability to capitalise on people's fear, all this stuff isn't going to last too much longer, people's patience is already starting to wear thin.
Maybe. I mean, you're right that people are getting restless and if it all blew over right now we'd be back to where we were pretty soon. But that assumes it will blow over. Suppose we all start going back to work and it blows up again, like it's doing in Singapore
That's the 2nd time someone here has claimed it's flaring back up in places that have eased lockdowns. Do you have data for that? Because it looks like that's not the case, daily case totals have not increased.
Just saw this picture in the news:
(Attachment Link)
According to the article the lockdown was released on the 19th of March and 2 weeks later infections started to rise at a faster pace than before.
Just looking at a country as a whole is not a good idea. Even in small countries (like the Netherlands) the number of infections vary wildly between areas so the epidemic flaring up in one area can easely get lost in the noise of the country's total.
Generic disclaimer: you have to be very careful with trying to interpret Corona numbers yourself; it is easy to get to the wrong conclusions.
Once the free healthcare ends here in the US, (when the emergency ends and people can go back to work, getting sick with COVID disease will go back to being just like any disease, insanely expensive, really unaffordable for almst everybody, even those with health insurance. ) everything may change. Infection rate will rocket up again because they have not, in fact can not change anything. Both candidates are pretending they can but they cant they signed away the right to do so decades ago.
there is a reason why the numbers are so bad here and its structural aspects of the system that are carved in stone forever in Geneva.
This web page is a useful resource. Its the John Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
But keep in mind that its quite possible that the lions share of the people dying from COVID-19 are not in those statistics because they die at home .
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Anyone knows why it spreads so easily compared to seasonal flu?
There are some reasonable thoughts on that.
As has been stated, Covid-19 SARS-CoV-2 can produces almost no symptoms in some people and very mild symptoms in other people, which may not even show up for many days. The duration of the symptoms can last what, 14 days or more? In all of those situations, you may be contagious.
Those, it seems to me, are all differences from what we generally call the "seasonal flu" (of which there are several varieties or strains, as I understand).
When you know you have the flu, you are not going anywhere for the most part and you are extra careful about infecting others (most people are).
Nevertheless, a longer duration with symptoms offers more opportunities to spread the infection.
I think, however, (but don't know), that a big difference is that in all cases of infection (let's say after 1 day) that are asymptomatic, the individual is contagious and they don't even know they are infected.
Well, that is all you need to spread so easily, compared to the "seasonal flu".
I have not seen any real data that it has a greater airborne capability or that it can be absorbed more easily through skin and we know something about its short viability on surfaces, so I don't think any of those factors are major reasons.
That is my understanding anyways.
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These are substances that make the body remember a substance with an extra kick.. But from what little I know that can also be very problematic, its very complicated, the thing that seems to be killing people so frequently with covid 19 is an immune response thats delayed too long and then its too strong, the delayed, overstrong immune response is part of what is killing people.
This is the same behaviour as the original SARS in 2003. Maybe if they'd kept working on a vaccine for that they would have the ground work in place for tackling this virus, but I guess funding for the development of treatments and vaccines dried up with the infection suddenly went away. Well, you know, having got over it, it was obviously never going to come back in a modified form to bite us. Right?
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Perhaps the regular/seasonal flu does spread as easily from person to person, but gets another "hop" far less often because a lot of people are immune to it.
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Anyone knows why it spreads so easily compared to seasonal flu?
I think it's a combination of things that creates a perfect storm.
For one thing it's a novel virus, it has not been spreading around human populations until recently so none of us have any immunity.
The incubation period is exceptionally long, up to 2 weeks between infection and the onset of symptoms during which time a person can be quite contagious. They may feel perfectly find and have no idea they've been infected and spend anywhere up to 2 weeks infecting other people. There are only so many degrees of separation and most of us are connected to most others through a chain of only a handful of people.
Then there are the asymptomatic carriers or those with very mild symptoms who go to work or out in public even though they know they're sick but don't realize they have something so dangerous to some.
On top of all that there may be other factors. Perhaps the virus is exceptionally adept at getting into the body and establishing an infection. Maybe it floats in the air unusually well, maybe it survives on surfaces longer than most viruses, a lot of this we really don't know yet.
I do hope that this pandemic results in more people staying home if they're sick. Here in the US at least we've long had a culture where people try to show how tough or hard working they are and come to work when they're clearly horribly ill. I've seen it happen so many times, someone hacking and coughing at their desk and in meetings and a week later a dozen people are out sick. It's like people worry that if they stay home sick someone will think they're faking it.
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This story shows why infections are likely to spike way up in the US as soon as companies go back to work.
https://theintercept.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-warehouse-deaths-broadridge/
Just like many other countries now, the US has a multitiered labor system where poor people and legal guest workers increasingly staff companies for very low, hourly wages and they work with no benefits in dangerous conditions. We're told in the trade literature that this is the future.
Well this future treats workers like their lives dont matter one bit. the owners have said as much. They are very angry at Mexico for treating the workers like human beings whose lives matter.
US companies and officials have been threatening Mexico for closing many of the Maqiladora factories (the factories built under the NAFTA trade agreement) along the border because of high numbers of people getting sick in them. the US companies that assemble products with their sub assemblies (putting a Made in USA label on them) want them to go back to work. Some of these factories have lost lots of workers, one factory has had 18 workers die. these buildings are cramped and crowded and not safe in any way as designed under the new conditions..
My guess is they may move the factories to Africa or South Asia where wages are lower and safety conditions less restrictive, perhaps. But they may be surprised.
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James, one time many many years ago I worked for a major US bank for just a few days, writing a web application. During the time I was there, somebody in my department literally died at their desk and the other workers didnt notice it until lunchtime when he didn't move and somebody a few desks away saw that something was not right. An ambulance came but he had been dead for so long that they didn't even try to revive him.
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That happens surprisingly often. It was only a couple of months ago a friend of mine went 8 stops on a tube train next to a dead guy. It was only when he fell off the seat people knew something was up.
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A lot of illness comes from work..But you can't live without it either. But soon we will have to figure out a way to.
I got into a discussion about the statistics yesterday with my Chinese friend, she told me that "All the (deaths and hospitalization) figures from China are totally fake" She says that all Chinese people "just know that they all are totally fake" and she feels that I should just totally ignore all of them. I kind of am inclined to agree.
and that the real death figures are much much higher. How could they not be. I doubt if its as bad here but still lots and lots and lots of people are dying and never diagnosed or counted as COVID-19 including a fair number of young people.
Also looking at the JHU dashboard, the figures in my little county (of which I live in the least urbanized part) are higher than all of Los Angeles. So they are doing much better out in California. IF the figures are to be trusted (certainly more than China's) I am close to NYC. Just a short ride away. (Yes, the busses and trains are still running!)
I think we are in the worst area in the world right now.
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There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened.
I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!)
If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work?
If I add up all the information I have read so far I think there are a couple things to be aware off:
1) The flu symptoms caused bij Covid-19 are not that bad.
Yeah. Well, according to some that have had it, it's no picnic either. No idea the percentage of people for whom it's light or bad, and if this % is similar to seasonal flu.
According to many reliable reports, the majority of people that get it will get it have no symptoms, or symptoms mild enough not to even seriously suspect they have it (i.e. so that's likely less serious symptoms than the flu)
If it's not the majority then it certainly seems to be a very high percentage.
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Perhaps the regular/seasonal flu does spread as easily from person to person, but gets another "hop" far less often because a lot of people are immune to it.
The good thing about this whole affair is the awareness level of hygiene has reached hyper levels in practically all the population. This should help reduce the transmission of all sorts of stuff in the coming years.
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Also, the optium temperature for corona virus is kind of cool. Hot weather reduces transmission a lot.
Might we be jumping to erroneous conclusions there? Hot weather means people aren't cooped up in a small room trying to keep warm for so long, and probably spending a significant amount of time outside (which will 'social distance' you even if you're reasonably close to someone just because of the wind). I don't think it's safe to say that warmth is bad (for the virus) just on the basis of seasonal cases - as pointed out previously, your insides are warmer than most environments and it's there that this thing lasts longest.
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The good thing about this whole affair is the awareness level of hygiene has reached hyper levels in practically all the population. This should help reduce the transmission of all sorts of stuff in the coming years.
LOL ... I wish you are right, but as a famous aussie once said ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufqlbaurJPw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufqlbaurJPw)
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Perhaps the regular/seasonal flu does spread as easily from person to person, but gets another "hop" far less often because a lot of people are immune to it.
The good thing about this whole affair is the awareness level of hygiene has reached hyper levels in practically all the population. This should help reduce the transmission of all sorts of stuff in the coming years.
and an explosion in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mysophobia
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There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened.
I have already heard that, and am asking one question. (Sorry if this is naive, I'm no virology expert!)
If the above happened to be true, how could a vaccine for it ever work?
If I add up all the information I have read so far I think there are a couple things to be aware off:
1) The flu symptoms caused bij Covid-19 are not that bad.
Yeah. Well, according to some that have had it, it's no picnic either. No idea the percentage of people for whom it's light or bad, and if this % is similar to seasonal flu.
According to many reliable reports, the majority of people that get it will get it have no symptoms, or symptoms mild enough not to even seriously suspect they have it (i.e. so that's likely less serious symptoms than the flu)
If it's not the majority then it certainly seems to be a very high percentage.
Well, that is a big issue. The only reports that we have come from complete testing of "closed" populations. These are situations where everybody in a sample was tested. For example, everyone on a cruise ship or in a nursing home.
Look at the table in this article https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/ (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/) that reviews those situations. The proportions are all over the place. I believe that most are valid, but none of the numbers can be generalized to populations with much confidence.
Many folks, including myself, are in favor of some degree of random testing (both for evidence of infection and immunity as well as a self reporting of symptoms) in countries to specifically address the issue because it is integral to a response strategy.
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I just saw this today and it is the first time I see comorbidity numbers, reducing the number of deaths by ~40%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1xKt19EwyxwqGeRRMiaXCXdyyIBJ1FmLS6-m24EJapcW_JUrI8AtwwraQ (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1xKt19EwyxwqGeRRMiaXCXdyyIBJ1FmLS6-m24EJapcW_JUrI8AtwwraQ)
Given the text mentions the number of deaths may increase due to delays in reporting (it says one to eight weeks), how is the current 60k death toll really being counted?
This whole thing is terribly confusing and, with such data deviations, there is no right answer if one option is better than the other due to the criticality/lethality of this disease.
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Perhaps the regular/seasonal flu does spread as easily from person to person, but gets another "hop" far less often because a lot of people are immune to it.
The good thing about this whole affair is the awareness level of hygiene has reached hyper levels in practically all the population. This should help reduce the transmission of all sorts of stuff in the coming years.
No. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger; IOW: if you stay in a sterile environment your immune system doesn't get any training. Most vaccines work by training your immune system to a weaker variant of a virus so it is ready for when the real deal hits.
Many folks, including myself, are in favor of some degree of random testing (both for evidence of infection and immunity as well as a self reporting of symptoms) in countries to specifically address the issue because it is integral to a response strategy.
They are already doing that in several countries by testing donated blood for Covid-19 virus anti-bodies. This gives a statistically relevent sample (which can be split by ages groups). From the last numbers I've seen the percentage of people in the Netherlands and Belgium that have had the Covid-19 virus is about 4% on average.
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The good thing about this whole affair is the awareness level of hygiene has reached hyper levels in practically all the population. This should help reduce the transmission of all sorts of stuff in the coming years.
No. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger; IOW: if you stay in a sterile environment your immune system doesn't get any training. Most vaccines work by training your immune system to a weaker variant of a virus so it is ready for when the real deal hits.
Unless you are one of the hundreds of thousands of people who die every year from the flu alone. 1M+ in a bad year. I guess is just sucks to be one of them.
Or the countless others that die or get seriously ill from a myriad of difference viruses and diseases caused by poor community and personal hygiene.
Arguing against improvements in societal and personal hygiene is one of the most asinine arguments I've ever heard.
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I just saw this today and it is the first time I see comorbidity numbers, reducing the number of deaths by ~40%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1xKt19EwyxwqGeRRMiaXCXdyyIBJ1FmLS6-m24EJapcW_JUrI8AtwwraQ (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1xKt19EwyxwqGeRRMiaXCXdyyIBJ1FmLS6-m24EJapcW_JUrI8AtwwraQ)
Given the text mentions the number of deaths may increase due to delays in reporting (it says one to eight weeks), how is the current 60k death toll really being counted?
This whole thing is terribly confusing and, with such data deviations, there is no right answer if one option is better than the other due to the criticality/lethality of this disease.
Admittedly, my position right now is "US-centric", because that is where I am at.
I agree with you on the complexity of the problem, but I resist the "no one right answer" idea - but let me say why because I am not so much saying you are wrong as explaining what I have come to believe.
At one end of the continuum are folks who scream "open it up" and let "herd immunity" run the natural course. This is unacceptable to me. It would, likely (based on what we already know) result in near term deaths in the millions. Additionally, it would unquestionably strain medical resources beyond the breaking point (we already know that has happened in select areas). It is distinctly similar to the political view that is linked to providing medical care to only those who can afford to pay. It is simply not the mark of a civilized society and that is something we should strive to achieve.
At the other end, is the assumption that folks not in the first camp must believe that we want everything locked down until a vaccine is developed and deployed (at minimum a year away and with issues at that), resulting in the complete and continued destruction of the economy. It is a false assumption. That we still do not have sufficient testing (nowhere near sufficient testing), is abominable and inexcusable to me. I complained about this months ago in the thread that was closed, and I feel more strongly now then I did then.
As we s l o w l y start experiencing the boundaries of "opening up", the need for maybe 100 times (a number I am guessing at because all I really know is that we don not have enough) the testing capability we currently have is going to be necessary. Easy and cheap testing for infection and immunity. Comprehensive and localized contact tracing that does not further erode our exploited privacy. Those are the immediate challenges that I see that should be a national referendum, not the usual "us vs. them" divisiveness that we have seen so much of over the last several years.
In my view, we blew it and blew it big time from the start. When I look at the new case distributions for S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and other places, for example, I think - wow, why couldn't the US be like that. Sure, they are smaller (much smaller in some cases) with different population density distributions and so on. Still, when more successful strategies are around you, why can't we learn?
In my state, we have had a very large increase in new cases in the last week. Instead of going down, the rate of change has gone up... and this is May! Did we "open up" irresponsibly? No, we bought and began using a large number of tests - bought from another country!. Even in hard hit states like Washington, you can see "light at the end of the tunnel" and it is accompanied by a good deal of testing. In the face of all that collective evidence, we continue the "us against them" politics and that HAS to change.
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The good thing about this whole affair is the awareness level of hygiene has reached hyper levels in practically all the population. This should help reduce the transmission of all sorts of stuff in the coming years.
No. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger; IOW: if you stay in a sterile environment your immune system doesn't get any training. Most vaccines work by training your immune system to a weaker variant of a virus so it is ready for when the real deal hits.
Unless you are one of the hundreds of thousands of people who die every year from the flu alone. 1M+ in a bad year. I guess is just sucks to be one of them.
Or the countless others that die or get seriously ill from a myriad of difference viruses and diseases caused by poor community and personal hygiene.
Arguing against improvements in societal and personal hygiene is one of the most asinine arguments I've ever heard.
You are not getting the point. Getting infected by a Corona virus (any type) during your life is inevitable so your body better be prepared (hence vaccinations). Sure a lot of people die from the flu but these aren't healthy people and it is highly questionable whether these people would have lived much longer if they didn't got the flu. So in the end better hygiene doesn't help you against Corona virusses. Not saying personal hygiene is bad but overdoing it is also not good either. There are a lot of useful bacteria on and in your body and a healthy portion of virusses keeps your immune system alert.
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Did people see the post I made a few days ago about the custom made graphene FET COVID-19 biosensor?
It looks very promising. Its extremely simple, but also quite sensitive and selective, and it gives instant results. Not 3 hours, not 3 days, it gives results in real time.
That really could be helpful.
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This is the effect of resveratrol on the viral lifecycle of a bunch of different viruses. (inhibits replication, typically) We know it inhibits MERS and likely also SARS, why dont we - now 5 months in, know what it does with COVID-19?
Also, resveratrol is extremely useful against sepsis and many respiratory diseases as well, also the worst lung problems in COVID-19 are caused by things resveratrol has a good chance of addressing, seems to me, based on what I know about how it behaves in other conditions.
It may be able to be both antiviral and immunomodulator. Probably not but suppose it was?
But I am not a doctor or a pharmacologist, or immunologist. So, anxiously waiting to hear some kind of research results.
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I guess is just sucks to be one of them
Only briefly.
Sure a lot of people die from the flu but these aren't healthy people and it is highly questionable whether these people would have lived much longer if they didn't got the flu.
Er, wrong. People continue to be productive when they have things wrong with them, even long-term and quite serious things. On paper I would have been in your questionable class for over a decade, and yet I am still here, doing pretty good and being productive, not to mention of some direct benefit to society.
Undoubtedly there will be more than a few people where some illness is the straw that does for them, but just having a serious or long-term illness doesn't mean you are on the shitheap within the next 6 months.
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According to many reliable reports, the majority of people that get it will get it have no symptoms, or symptoms mild enough not to even seriously suspect they have it (i.e. so that's likely less serious symptoms than the flu)
If it's not the majority then it certainly seems to be a very high percentage.
That's part of the reason I'm curious to get the antibody test. My partner and I both had something in late March, my symptoms were about 2 days behind hers. Started out with a mild fever for about a day, then turned into what felt like a bit of a cold for a few days followed by feeling extremely tired for around a week. I didn't feel sick at that point, I just didn't have the energy to do anything, I drank about 5 cans of caffeinated soda just to get through the work (at home) day. She was significantly sicker than I was but it was still only a day that she completely took the day off and slept most of the day. Whatever we got was highly contagious because we both had it in such quick succession despite all the precautions everyone has been taking and the symptoms match but it was so mild that at the time I was very skeptical.
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Sure a lot of people die from the flu but these aren't healthy people and it is highly questionable whether these people would have lived much longer if they didn't got the flu.
Er, wrong. People continue to be productive when they have things wrong with them, even long-term and quite serious things. On paper I would have been in your questionable class for over a decade, and yet I am still here, doing pretty good and being productive, not to mention of some direct benefit to society.
Then you are not in the class of people I was writing about. The proof is that you are still here despite several flu pandemics in the past decade. Your health is not that bad.
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Cumulative exposure to nitrogen dioxide, an important kind of air pollution, may also be important to coronavirus mortality.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151460/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151460/)
https://www.windy.com/-NO2-no2 (https://www.windy.com/-NO2-no2)
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Also, the optium temperature for corona virus is kind of cool. Hot weather reduces transmission a lot.
Might we be jumping to erroneous conclusions there? Hot weather means people aren't cooped up in a small room trying to keep warm for so long, and probably spending a significant amount of time outside (which will 'social distance' you even if you're reasonably close to someone just because of the wind). I don't think it's safe to say that warmth is bad (for the virus) just on the basis of seasonal cases - as pointed out previously, your insides are warmer than most environments and it's there that this thing lasts longest.
Yes, I doubt temperature makes that much difference. COVID-19 has spread to some tropical countries and on board cruise ships, which would have been pretty well heated. UVB radiation will destroy the virus, but it will only make a difference to picking up the virus on surfaces outdoors, so I doubt the UV index makes that much of a difference.
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The proof is that you are still here despite several flu pandemics in the past decade. Your health is not that bad.
No, because I get the flu vaccination and haven't had it, so you and I have no idea how I might survive getting it. However, I am very sure that had I got it at the start of my issue, over a decade ago, I wouldn't be here now.
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How are people handling their Internet connectivity requirements? I'd like to hear how people are handing the networking aspect of working at home, particularly network latency (important for interactive services) and security. My internet connection has taken a nose dive recently, and at times its almost unusable.
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No problem here atm. VDSL link with close to 90Mbit down and 20 MBit uplink. But my direct neighborhood is completely void of power users. Suburb with mostly old people.
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Yes, I doubt temperature makes that much difference. COVID-19 has spread to some tropical countries and on board cruise ships, which would have been pretty well heated. UVB radiation will destroy the virus, but it will only make a difference to picking up the virus on surfaces outdoors, so I doubt the UV index makes that much of a difference.
There are a couple of studies that show a good correlation between case loads and a particular temperature range, but correlation doesn't ensure causality. Remember that most of those warms places with significant case loads were hit early in Spring. Singapore is hot for the whole year, but has so many overworking air cons that you can spend long periods at unreasonably low temperatures there.
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How are people handling their Internet connectivity requirements? I'd like to hear how people are handing the networking aspect of working at home, particularly network latency (important for interactive services) and security. My internet connection has taken a nose dive recently, and at times its almost unusable.
Our ISP says their traffic is up 30% since the start of the lockdown. So far, performance hasn't shown an obvious change.
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My internet connection has taken a nose dive recently, and at times its almost unusable.
Same here. It has almost since the beginning of confinement.
Typical downstream close to what we had with ADSL 512K almost 20 years ago during the day (=> 50KB/s to 100KB/s) and long ping times (whereas I have ~1.4MB/s normally). Gets even worse near the end of the day. Gets back to normal at night after midnight or so. Clearly saturated.
People complaining. ISPs not saying a word.
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The kids are hammering our connection hard and absolutely no problems so far. This is on Zen ADSL in UK. Look at traffic increase for Mar/Apr...
(https://imgur.com/DaLHYOZ.jpg)
Connection is running 59 down 15 up.
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We use Webex and, even when the system calls are done directly to everyone's cellphone, voice is still routed to IP (the Webex software detects activity and controls mute per individual).
This seems to be mostly a Webex problem, rather than an IP audio problem. Other systems do much better. Many companies who use Webex only use it for the shared desktop functionality, and use another approach for sharing audio.
Agreed. Google hangouts and Goto meeting for example offer excellent sound quality. Needing to repeat yourself is definitely a thing of the past unless you use a crappy service or your internet connection is really bad.
It actually was Webex that we were using. The participant from far away originally connected using computer audio, which was very distorted like a combination of low bit rate and really bad echo cancellation. The quality really wasn't any better after he disconnected and called in over the telephone link. However, other Webex meetings with distant participants were fine. Perhaps issues vary depending on the local routing.
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Yes, I doubt temperature makes that much difference. COVID-19 has spread to some tropical countries and on board cruise ships, which would have been pretty well heated. UVB radiation will destroy the virus, but it will only make a difference to picking up the virus on surfaces outdoors, so I doubt the UV index makes that much of a difference.
There are a couple of studies that show a good correlation between case loads and a particular temperature range, but correlation doesn't ensure causality. Remember that most of those warms places with significant case loads were hit early in Spring. Singapore is hot for the whole year, but has so many overworking air cons that you can spend long periods at unreasonably low temperatures there.
The missing bit of information to consider is the serum vitamin D levels in a population and its positive impact on immune response. Levels vary considerably per season in northern countries versus someplace like Australia. The instinct to get some sun in the springtime is strong for Canadians, which I think is driven by underlying biology.
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People should be able to claim a refund if they are not getting the bandwidth they are paying for and it doesnt resolve fairly soon.
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The biggest issue I've seen is with coworkers who live in apartments that have WiFi, there's no way around the fact that the air has a finite amount of bandwidth. Get that many people with that many devices all using it at once and things are gonna slow down.
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It is, the underlying biology is quite important. The substance you get isnt just Vitamin D, you also get a very interesting hormone called Alpha-MSH. Look it up! It seems to act as an aphrodisiac in women. It might in men too, we're more similar than we think. Its also involved with the tanning process. (the M stands for melanocyte)
Yes, I doubt temperature makes that much difference. COVID-19 has spread to some tropical countries and on board cruise ships, which would have been pretty well heated. UVB radiation will destroy the virus, but it will only make a difference to picking up the virus on surfaces outdoors, so I doubt the UV index makes that much of a difference.
There are a couple of studies that show a good correlation between case loads and a particular temperature range, but correlation doesn't ensure causality. Remember that most of those warms places with significant case loads were hit early in Spring. Singapore is hot for the whole year, but has so many overworking air cons that you can spend long periods at unreasonably low temperatures there.
The missing bit of information to consider is the serum vitamin D levels in a population and its positive impact on immune response. Levels vary considerably per season in northern countries versus someplace like Australia. The instinct to get some sun in the springtime is strong for Canadians, which I think is driven by underlying biology.
the peak temperature for COVID-19 transmission according to some Chinese research I have read was found to be around 10 degrees centigrade in China during the first few months when people were dying in large numbers in Wuhan especially. But as somebody said, other factors could easily be in there that nobody had figured into the mix . For example, a lot of young people caught COVID-19 here in the US over spring break, then bringing it back to communities all around the country.
presumably in the bright sunshine and warm conditions. (But no doubt also going back to air conditioned hotel rooms, not smart but .... )
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I passed the local library while driving to a grocery store some weeks back and i saw the parking lot was full. I thought -interesting, do we have libraries open as essential business , that seemed weird to me. It was several days later that i realized the reason was : free WiFi. Apparently all those cars parked had peoples sitting in them and using the library's WiFi, some "working from home".
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The missing bit of information to consider is the serum vitamin D levels in a population and its positive impact on immune response. Levels vary considerably per season in northern countries versus someplace like Australia. The instinct to get some sun in the springtime is strong for Canadians, which I think is driven by underlying biology.
I always thought it was ridiculous in Britain where police forced people from sunbathing outdoors back into their houses , even did not allow to be outside on their front lawns. It seemed so stupid. Don't they know in Britain that you need sunlight to produce vitamine D naturally.
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The good thing about this whole affair is the awareness level of hygiene has reached hyper levels in practically all the population. This should help reduce the transmission of all sorts of stuff in the coming years.
No. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger; IOW: if you stay in a sterile environment your immune system doesn't get any training. Most vaccines work by training your immune system to a weaker variant of a virus so it is ready for when the real deal hits.
Unless you are one of the hundreds of thousands of people who die every year from the flu alone. 1M+ in a bad year. I guess is just sucks to be one of them.
Or the countless others that die or get seriously ill from a myriad of difference viruses and diseases caused by poor community and personal hygiene.
Arguing against improvements in societal and personal hygiene is one of the most asinine arguments I've ever heard.
You are not getting the point. Getting infected by a Corona virus (any type) during your life is inevitable so your body better be prepared (hence vaccinations). Sure a lot of people die from the flu but these aren't healthy people and it is highly questionable whether these people would have lived much longer if they didn't got the flu. So in the end better hygiene doesn't help you against Corona virusses. Not saying personal hygiene is bad but overdoing it is also not good either. There are a lot of useful bacteria on and in your body and a healthy portion of virusses keeps your immune system alert.
Sorry, you don't get a get out of jail free card.
I said that better hygiene will come as result of this and you flatly said No, implying that was not a good thing.
By your response I now presume that you actually agree with me that better hygiene is not a bad thing?
I understand your point about over hygiene, but now you are digging your hole deeper by saying "oh well, those people weren't going to live long anyway" :palm:
Your position has gone from asinine to downright callous.
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This is an article asking that people who have engineering and science skills try to apply them to making this situation more bearable and especially safer for everybody.
This shows why sanitation is important!
(Enveloped viruses means a group of viruses including COVID-19)
Environmental Engineers and Scientists Have Important Roles to Play in Stemming Outbreaks and Pandemics Caused by Enveloped Viruses
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7099656/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7099656/)
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I always thought it was ridiculous in Britain where police forced people from sunbathing outdoors back into their houses , even did not allow to be outside on their front lawns. It seemed so stupid.
That's not the rule here, though it may have been an overzealous reaction from one particular officer shortly after the lockdown was introduced. Some police forces did go way beyond what the rules required people to do, and received a strong backlash from both the public and senior legal professionals for it.
It doesn't help that there have been major discrepancies between government guidelines - which they confusingly call "rules" or "instructions" - and the actual law which is the The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made).
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I always thought it was ridiculous in Britain where police forced people from sunbathing outdoors back into their houses , even did not allow to be outside on their front lawns. It seemed so stupid.
That's not the rule here, though it may have been an overzealous reaction from one particular officer shortly after the lockdown was introduced. Some police forces did go way beyond what the rules required people to do, and received a strong backlash from both the public and senior legal professionals for it.
It doesn't help that there have been major discrepancies between government guidelines - which they confusingly call "rules" or "instructions" - and the actual law which is the The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made).
Yes it was a combination of overzealous enforcement and confusing rules. When measures were first introduced a lot of people either shrugged or went "Don't tell me what to do!". So they had to make it enforcable by the police. They over shot considerably in a few cases, but in the end to make the rules "simple to enforce", they actually got much stricter.
There have been quite a few garden and house parties broken up by police because it was clear it was not one household, but loads of people congregating in one house/garden. They told people to go home, drove off, came back an hour later and fined everyone who didn't live at the house, because most of them simply came back.
The action on people sun bathing is caused by people driving to local tourist/beauty spots. They think, "Well it's empty, nobody else will go to <insert prime sunny day out spot>" when in fact they became literally bunged with thousands of people. Now police ask you what you are doing, where you live and if you are adhering to distancing and not more than a reasonable distance from your home, they leave you alone.
We can still go shopping, even for non-essentials in some cases, hardware stores and catalog stores like Argos are open. Basically anything that can be delivered or "click and collected" is open for business.
EDIT: One more thing to be aware of in the UK is that it has 3 (or more) semi-devolved regions. England and Wales are governed together, but Scotland and Northern Ireland have devolved health governance and the rules do differ between them somewhat.
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I live completely alone. At home I don't see a single sole from one day to the next. This has been that way for maybe 10 years as I suffer with social anxiety and depression it suited me. Work was my only real socialising. However now I'm in lock down I have had to bend one of the rules. I share an isolation space between two households. My household of me and my daughters household of her and her mother. This is just for "needs must" sake.
Children are allowed to be exchanged between households with separated parents and in the first few instances we literally did "Hand her over at the door", but we relaxed that a bit. So I had a family BBQ in the back yard on Saturday.
If any of you have a toddler you will understand when I say, if they have it, you have it. My little one has sneezed in my face more than once already. What are you going to do, they don't understand.
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There are different regulations in England vs Wales too. For example, one of the "rules" is that outdoor exercise is permitted exactly once per day, but this is only actually law in Wales ref. s 8.2.b (http://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/353/regulation/8/made). In England we're still being told this is a "rule", but it isn't law.
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I understand your point about over hygiene, but now you are digging your hole deeper by saying "oh well, those people weren't going to live long anyway"
That is a cultural thing. Recently I read an interview with a Dutch doctor who works in a hospital in New York (US). He noticed that (mostly) relatives are hell bound on trying anything to prolong the life of a person even if from a medical standpoint it is totally useless. That didn't sit well with him; at some point it is just inhumane to let people suffer. In the Netherlands a lot of older people (my own elderly relatives included) have 'do not resuscitate' / 'do not ventilate' statements. They rather die in dignity (in their own home) than suffering in a hospital and then dying with a lot of tubes sticking out of them OR survive but being stuck in a bed, wheelchair, etc. In the Netherlands it is becoming more and more common that elderly people die on their own terms instead of sticking around to just please their family members. The how and when is heavily debated by politicians. Probably some people will now chime in and say 'Oh, they are killing the elderly in the NL' but that isn't the case but I understand it may be a difficult concept to wrap your head around. The Netherlands is quite progressive compared to the rest of the world. I've had some dealings with people in my surrounding who choose not to be treated because treatment would in the end cause more suffering. But it doesn't mean I'm liking the idea; for a healthy person it is counter intuitive.
Specific to the Covid-19 pandemic and ending up in an ICU: The thing people overlook is that you don't walk out of the ICU after being ventilated for a longer period of time. Your body will have a lot of damage and quality of life will be less for a long time and probably for the rest of your life. I don't have the exact numbers but our PM noted that there are significantly less old people in the ICUs in the Netherlands compared to other countries due to Covid-19. This is not due to a shortage of ICU beds but due to old people not wanting to be ventilated.
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I understand your point about over hygiene, but now you are digging your hole deeper by saying "oh well, those people weren't going to live long anyway"
That is a cultural thing. *snip*....
aaaaand deeper. All because you are trying to defend the ridiculous position that improved hygiene because of this whole crisis thing is not good thing.
Give up.
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I understand your point about over hygiene, but now you are digging your hole deeper by saying "oh well, those people weren't going to live long anyway"
That is a cultural thing. *snip*....
aaaaand deeper. All because you are trying to defend the ridiculous position that improved hygiene because of this whole crisis thing is not good thing.
Give up.
Now you move the goalposts again after stating you agree with overdoing hygiene. But I'll play along: Try to explain how improved hygiene will help. Put some numbers on it.
The fact is that improved hygiene only takes you so far and we are way past the point where extra hygiene brings us some extra. You're trying to get more from an empty box. I'd say people in general are doing just fine in the so called 2nd world countries where I'd say hygiene is less well established; they aren't dying by the millions as your assumption seems to suggest. Or are you implying we should keep the lock down measures in place forever? In the end that would lead to self extinction... boy meets girl is not going to happen if everyone stays locked up.
We (humans) already need the aid of medicines like anti-biotics and anti viral vaccines to keep the population healthy. Vaccination grades need to be at 90% or more to stop measles and smallpox (both very contagious viral infections) effectively.
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(Back generally, to the topic!)... :-+
Generally today, in this computer oriented world, there must be/are SO many facets
of 'work', that CAN now be done from home, as opposed to the 'olden' days!
Of course this does not include the vast majority of people like production-line workers
or a StorePerson etc. etc. Although obvious private sector people like Architects or
graphic designers or countless Media personnel can work 99% from home...
As a (slight!) variation to all that, I'm annoyed at some Govt/State feelings about KIDS
being home from School!! :o Do they think that a MERE 3, 5, 10 weeks away from the
'school' is going to leave them as destitute uneducated yobbos of our future ?? :(
They DON'T teach them like in the old ways/times like daring to learn the likes of Times-
Tables, and basic formulas in say maths/science/physics, as they relate everything with
computers now. Virtually all students here, now, must have/use Laptops & Tablets, and
are set up to have access from home too, for use with 'HomeWork' (haha..) too. Obviously
though, 'parents' must ensure their up-and-comming 'rug-rats' stay on track in their fields.
Then there is the OTHER side of 'isolation' of kids. (Covid-19). They SAY that such young
people are not affected dramatically, in the same way. HOWEVER, that does NOT mean,
(though they can't tell us expertly yet), that they may be CARRIERS that can/may spread
it to those more vulnerable!!?? At this date/time, it's better to be safe than sorry!......
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Then there is the OTHER side of 'isolation' of kids. (Covid-19). They SAY that such young
people are not affected dramatically, in the same way. HOWEVER, that does NOT mean,
(though they can't tell us expertly yet), that they may be CARRIERS that can/may spread
it to those more vulnerable!!?? At this date/time, it's better to be safe than sorry!......
The data from China and many other countries suggest that children are not (significantly) spreading Covid-19. Usually they get it from the parents and not the other way around.
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First day back to the office.. the so called "phase two" has started today. Working from home was nice for a change, i'd like to be able to continue that in the future..
but i was starting to lose it: basically i would never come out of the bedroom where i had set up the temporary lab.
On another note, tonight i will be able to see my girlfriend of many years and not commit a felony while doing it
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Hi
Sorry to change the subject, back to the OP subject really,
Some of you may know that I am a volunteer at The National Museum of Computing.
The lock down is having servere financial impacts to charites and museums.
The National Museum of Computing is a Not for profit organisation and set up as a charity.
The income from ticket sales has dried up but the bills for rent still have to be paid.
So please can I ask EEVBlog forum member to dig deep and help support the National Museum of Computing :
https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/fuelling-the-future-powering-the-past?tk=b26125afe72adc6ed9d367aa05e86964ed1b9641 (https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/fuelling-the-future-powering-the-past?tk=b26125afe72adc6ed9d367aa05e86964ed1b9641)
I know that some of you have already visited, For those that have not, I look foward to seeing you after the lock down is lifted.
Thanks you to you all and stay stafe.
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Then there is the OTHER side of 'isolation' of kids. (Covid-19). They SAY that such young
people are not affected dramatically, in the same way. HOWEVER, that does NOT mean,
(though they can't tell us expertly yet), that they may be CARRIERS that can/may spread
it to those more vulnerable!!?? At this date/time, it's better to be safe than sorry!......
The data from China and many other countries suggest that children are not (significantly) spreading Covid-19. Usually they get it from the parents and not the other way around.
My 'problem' would be the "Data from China" part, sorry... I just wouldn't believe them. :(
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Then there is the OTHER side of 'isolation' of kids. (Covid-19). They SAY that such young
people are not affected dramatically, in the same way. HOWEVER, that does NOT mean,
(though they can't tell us expertly yet), that they may be CARRIERS that can/may spread
it to those more vulnerable!!?? At this date/time, it's better to be safe than sorry!......
The data from China and many other countries suggest that children are not (significantly) spreading Covid-19. Usually they get it from the parents and not the other way around.
My 'problem' would be the "Data from China" part, sorry... I just wouldn't believe them. :(
Who would you believe? Most governments and media have continuously lied through this event. e.g. are masks good or bad?
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The good thing about this whole affair is the awareness level of hygiene has reached hyper levels in practically all the population. This should help reduce the transmission of all sorts of stuff in the coming years.
No. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger; IOW: if you stay in a sterile environment your immune system doesn't get any training. Most vaccines work by training your immune system to a weaker variant of a virus so it is ready for when the real deal hits.
Unless you are one of the hundreds of thousands of people who die every year from the flu alone. 1M+ in a bad year. I guess is just sucks to be one of them.
Or the countless others that die or get seriously ill from a myriad of difference viruses and diseases caused by poor community and personal hygiene.
Arguing against improvements in societal and personal hygiene is one of the most asinine arguments I've ever heard.
You are not getting the point. Getting infected by a Corona virus (any type) during your life is inevitable so your body better be prepared (hence vaccinations). Sure a lot of people die from the flu but these aren't healthy people and it is highly questionable whether these people would have lived much longer if they didn't got the flu. So in the end better hygiene doesn't help you against Corona virusses. Not saying personal hygiene is bad but overdoing it is also not good either. There are a lot of useful bacteria on and in your body and a healthy portion of virusses keeps your immune system alert.
Basically, there are two kinds of virus responses:
- -A- those for which your body is able to maintain proteins produced in response to and counteracting a specific antigen. This "antibodies" combine chemically with substances that the body recognizes as alien, such as bacteria, viruses, and foreign substances in the blood.
- -B- those for which your body is not able to maintain these proteins
There is a common infectious viral disease causing fever and a red rash on the skin, typically occurring in childhood, and your body is able to maintain the protein produced in response to it, hence you won't counteract measles again.
There is also a common infection called "common cold", and it doesn't matter how many times you counteract it, your body is not able to maintain a "biological memory" of the protein produced in response to it.
- -A- measles
- -B- common cold
COVID19 looks more similar to a common cold from this point of view, hence increasing conditions or practices conducive to maintaining health and preventing disease, especially through cleanliness looks like a great logical idea to me.
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I am no more sure bats are classifiable as mammals.
Bats are immune to a lot of viruses at a deep cellular level. Bats do fly, but there is a weird behavior with their oxygen reduction in order to allow them to fly. They are not as light as birds, they are a lot heavier, even their bones are heavier too, and their ability to fly requires a lot of more energy, and, due to the cellular stress to produce this huge amount of energy, it must happen something at the cellular level, something that is actually completely unknown because if we apply this to "a common mammal" it will for sure cause a lot of serious DNA damages that are impossible to repair, and for sure cancer will arise.
Yet it doesn't happen in bats. Why?
What does make their DNA so strong? What do bats use to repair their DNA? And how can they be so immune to viruses?
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I am no more sure bats are classifiable as mammals.
Bats are immune to a lot of viruses at a deep cellular level. Bats do fly, but there is a weird behavior with their oxygen reduction in order to allow them to fly. They are not as light as birds, they are a lot heavier, even their bones are heavier too, and their ability to fly requires a lot of more energy, and, due to the cellular stress to produce this huge amount of energy, it must happen something at the cellular level, something that is actually completely unknown because if we apply this to "a common mammal" it will for sure cause a lot of serious DNA damages that are impossible to repair, and for sure cancer will arise.
Yet it doesn't happen in bats. Why?
What does make their DNA so strong? What do bats use to repair their DNA? And how can they be so immune to viruses?
If I'm not mistaken this is what "The Lab" in Wuhan has been doing research on ;)
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I am no more sure bats are classifiable as mammals.
Bats are immune to a lot of viruses at a deep cellular level. Bats do fly, but there is a weird behavior with their oxygen reduction in order to allow them to fly. They are not as light as birds, they are a lot heavier, even their bones are heavier too, and their ability to fly requires a lot of more energy, and, due to the cellular stress to produce this huge amount of energy, it must happen something at the cellular level, something that is actually completely unknown because if we apply this to "a common mammal" it will for sure cause a lot of serious DNA damages that are impossible to repair, and for sure cancer will arise.
Yet it doesn't happen in bats. Why?
What does make their DNA so strong? What do bats use to repair their DNA? And how can they be so immune to viruses?
Most mammals are largely unaffected by infections that afflict other species. From my reading, what makes bats an extreme case is their ability to distribute things they collect which don't harm them.
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I am no more sure bats are classifiable as mammals.
Bats are classified as mammals: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat
not only that, they are placental mammals, just like us.
Bats are immune to a lot of viruses at a deep cellular level.
Their particularly effective immune system makes them very resistant to all kinds of pathogens, not just viruses, which, unfortunately, makes them very effective carriers.
That makes studying them pretty interesting. I don't think we quite understand yet what their "secret sauce" really is.
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If bats didn't have a weird immune systems they probably wouldn't exist as they tend to hang in dense groups in the order of millions.
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If bats didn't have a weird immune systems they probably wouldn't exist as they tend to hang in dense groups in the order of millions.
Yeah, we need to get them to engage in social distancing. :)
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The biggest issue I've seen is with coworkers who live in apartments that have WiFi, there's no way around the fact that the air has a finite amount of bandwidth. Get that many people with that many devices all using it at once and things are gonna slow down.
The bandwidth of the air is virtually infinite, but the hardware that uses it can only work with a tiny fraction of that. Not that better hardware will help by very much when demand will quickly expand to make up for it. What will help is use of millimeter wave and infrared, which are heavily attenuated between rooms and therefore allow much more frequency reuse.
I wonder how many have figured out that going wired significantly boosts performance.
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If I'm not mistaken this is what "The Lab" in Wuhan has been doing research on ;)
Chineses are not the only bio-engineers on this :D
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If bats didn't have a weird immune systems they probably wouldn't exist as they tend to hang in dense groups in the order of millions.
It seems a consequence of their ability to fly.
They are heavy, and each cell must produce a lot of energy to sustain the flying. This means a lot of stress at the cellular level, which implies a lot of DNA damages, and it's precisely here where nature gave them the trick. And as a consequence of this mechanism, they also become immune to viruses.
A virus to reproduce itself needs to use the DNA of a target, but the DNA in bats gets always repaired in a smart way.
The good news is that these researching activities get more interest and attention, and it may be also interesting to understand how bats are immune to develop cancer. Maybe the world after COVID/19 will put more funds into this research.
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Maybe the world after COVID/19 will put more funds into this research.
What and let the rich take a hit on their bonuses? Unlikely.
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I understand your point about over hygiene, but now you are digging your hole deeper by saying "oh well, those people weren't going to live long anyway"
That is a cultural thing. *snip*....
aaaaand deeper. All because you are trying to defend the ridiculous position that improved hygiene because of this whole crisis thing is not good thing.
Give up.
Now you move the goalposts again after stating you agree with overdoing hygiene. But I'll play along: Try to explain how improved hygiene will help. Put some numbers on it.
Wow, how dumb is this. Ok, Let's a say million people die of the flu every year, not to mention the untold numbers who catch it and have to stay off work or whatever. Huge impact on society, and that's just he seasons flu. To think that improved personal and societal hygiene standards and habits isn't going to help with this and other things is just completely asinine. It's beyond dumb to think that.
The fact is that improved hygiene only takes you so far and we are way past the point where extra hygiene brings us some extra.
Now YOU get to back that up with numbers. Go ahead and try and prove that better hygiene in society is not going to help things. Go on, please big your hole even further.
I'm not taking your other bait and will not debate this further with you, but respond if you want.
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Alright - this is getting silly indeed.
Whereas excessive hygiene (but we are talking really EXCESSIVE here) may weaken our immune systems in the long run, from what I had read, this is really true for babies - first couple years of life basically. I'm not sure there is any proof that once our immune system is mature, excessive hygiene may weaken it. You'd really have to live inside a bubble to be exposed to so few pathogens that your immune system would eventually get into some kind of sleep mode anyway.
Now some pathogens like seasonal flu viruses are particularly "annoying"... our immune systems can never really get immune to them, they mutate constantly. So for them, more hygiene certainly helps. Even just washing your hands regularly during the day does help a lot.
We're not talking about putting people in isolated bubbles either. At least, I hope not! ::)
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Some of you may know that I am a volunteer at The National Museum of Computing.
The lock down is having servere financial impacts to charites and museums.
The National Museum of Computing is a Not for profit organisation and set up as a charity.
The income from ticket sales has dried up but the bills for rent still have to be paid.
So please can I ask EEVBlog forum member to dig deep and help support the National Museum of Computing :
https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/fuelling-the-future-powering-the-past?tk=b26125afe72adc6ed9d367aa05e86964ed1b9641 (https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/fuelling-the-future-powering-the-past?tk=b26125afe72adc6ed9d367aa05e86964ed1b9641)
I know that some of you have already visited, For those that have not, I look foward to seeing you after the lock down is lifted.
Wow, yeah, that sucks, would be countless places like that that would be impacted. It will be impossible to know the final numbers of failed businesses and other things from all this mandatory lock down stuff.
And it will likely be impossible to know to exactly how effective were the lock downs, as there is basically no direct control group to compare with.
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It will be impossible to know the final numbers of failed businesses and other things from all this mandatory lock down stuff.
True, but it will be possible to compare the number of failed businesses from the start of the crisis up to the next couple of years, and compare this to the numbers in the last 10 years for instance. That will be no proof, but should give us an idea.
And it will likely be impossible to know to exactly how effective were the lock downs, as there is basically no direct control group to compare with.
Indeed. Lock downs have not been exactly the same from country to country, but their respective population, geography, climate, etc are also different. So there is no valid control group to speak of.
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Alright - this is getting silly indeed.
Whereas excessive hygiene (but we are talking really EXCESSIVE here) may weaken our immune systems in the long run, from what I had read, this is really true for babies - first couple years of life basically. I'm not sure there is any proof that once our immune system is mature, excessive hygiene may weaken it. You'd really have to live inside a bubble to be exposed to so few pathogens that your immune system would eventually get into some kind of sleep mode anyway.
Now some pathogens like seasonal flu viruses are particularly "annoying"... our immune systems can never really get immune to them, they mutate constantly. So for them, more hygiene certainly helps. Even just washing your hands regularly during the day does help a lot.
We're not talking about putting people in isolated bubbles either. At least, I hope not! ::)
Nailed it.
These are demonstrable facts.
And yep, I'm all for kids eating dirt.
Mrs EEVblog and I have always been quite vigilant with the kids in terms of basic hygiene, we've always carried a disinfectant spray bottle before it became trendy for example. But they are still massive petri dishes, it's just unavoidable. Good hygiene helps a lot though. To think we were already at "peak hygiene" is so :-DD
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In the Netherlands a lot of older people (my own elderly relatives included) have 'do not resuscitate' / 'do not ventilate' statements. They rather die in dignity (in their own home) than suffering in a hospital and then dying with a lot of tubes sticking out of them OR survive but being stuck in a bed, wheelchair, etc. In the Netherlands it is becoming more and more common that elderly people die on their own terms instead of sticking around to just please their family members.
Same here, Mrs GreyWoolfe and I have DNR statements filed with our primary care physician. This way, if either of us in incapacitated, our wishes will be followed. Neither of us want to be a burden on the other and family.
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It will be impossible to know the final numbers of failed businesses and other things from all this mandatory lock down stuff.
True, but it will be possible to compare the number of failed businesses from the start of the crisis up to the next couple of years, and compare this to the numbers in the last 10 years for instance. That will be no proof, but should give us an idea.
I'm sure he jump on the graph will be order of magnitude level stuff.
And it will likely be impossible to know to exactly how effective were the lock downs, as there is basically no direct control group to compare with.
Indeed. Lock downs have not been exactly the same from country to country, but their respective population, geography, climate, etc are also different. So there is no valid control group to speak of.
That won't stop governments and other actors claiming this though, beware of dodgy long term fake analyses to try and prove their decisions were the rights ones.
But the politicians aren't dumb, they know it's no-lose for them to do whatever lock downs measures they like. When the numbers do drop, they can claim that's the reason and you'll have little if any data to prove otherwise. If numbers don't drop for some reason, they can just claim the sheeple didn't follow the rules enough. Clever.
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But the politicians aren't dumb, they know it's no-lose for them to do whatever lock downs measures they like. When the numbers do drop, they can claim that's the reason and you'll have little if any data to prove otherwise. If numbers don't drop for some reason, they can just claim the sheeple didn't follow the rules enough. Clever.
People in power are always right. Until they get their heads chopped off.
Likewise, in countries where lock downs have been less stringent, and economy has been less impacted, politicians will brag they were right about it too.
Unfortunately, predicting how an epidemic will evolve is a very complex matter. Models are always simplified. It's probably not as complex, but similar to predicting climate changes. So in the same vein, politicians manage to be always right, whereas in reality we are probably ALL wrong.
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448690/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448690/)
"Too clean, or not too clean: the Hygiene Hypothesis and home hygiene"
It's been researched for quite a while. Certainly in the disguise of children's allergy increase.
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But the politicians aren't dumb, they know it's no-lose for them to do whatever lock downs measures they like. When the numbers do drop, they can claim that's the reason and you'll have little if any data to prove otherwise. If numbers don't drop for some reason, they can just claim the sheeple didn't follow the rules enough. Clever.
If they screw up the economy so badly people start losing their homes and going hungry they might find they can lose, whatever happens to the death rate from COVID-19.
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If they screw up the economy so badly people start losing their homes and going hungry they might find they can lose, whatever happens to the death rate from COVID-19.
The economy would have taken a serious hit either way.
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So in the same vein, politicians manage to be always right, whereas in reality we are probably ALL wrong.
Oddly enough the latter is precisely what the PM of the Netherlands is saying. He stated "It is impossible to avoid errors in the middle of a crisis; we are going to evaluate later".
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But the politicians aren't dumb, they know it's no-lose for them to do whatever lock downs measures they like. When the numbers do drop, they can claim that's the reason and you'll have little if any data to prove otherwise. If numbers don't drop for some reason, they can just claim the sheeple didn't follow the rules enough. Clever.
If they screw up the economy so badly people start losing their homes and going hungry they might find they can lose, whatever happens to the death rate from COVID-19.
I don't know. With your higher minimum wage, etc. it seems Australia has for a long time trying to attract a slightly better kind of international investment, but then again, Ive never been to Australia. But to me it seems like a really nice place, kind of how California used to be decades ago, before it turned into the battleground it is now.
The world has changed, sigificantly. We have to adapt to it and be better world citizens. Better safe than sorry.
The problem is, money rules now, over voters, Our leaders have very quietly set up a "rules based trading system" that has actually made the kinds of safety and policy behaviors we now need from governments arguably illegal for those governments to step in and do, unless its the very bare minimum regulation. Even in "emergencies" the rules are very explicit. Especially when it comes to things that might be construed as having "protectionist" motives. Any kind of social assistance or governments helping people is likely prohibited.
(Although this may have changed somewhat, because its so insanely stupid, only time and some legal challenges, will tell.)
But those legal challenges woud only happen somewhere else, (than the US)
(Unless they are pre-rigged, then they are likely to happen here)
I mean proceedings in the WTO. Like, a few years ago Australia was brought into trade court over tobacco labeling rules.
The United States of today would never have enacted the tobacco rules we did in the 70s and 80s.
Because we want to be able to sell dog food as meat. (maybe not literally but you get the idea, the current owners of this franchise are much more pro business than they let on. All of them.)
So that means we're fucked, because my guess is, seeing more of these epidemics in the future they will clamp down hard so that companies investments will not be diminunated by global pandemics. That will mean the worst kinds of health policies.
Factories that were built to support a pre-coronavirus level of staffing? They would rather move to some Third World country, than change how they operate.
I guess we'll see.
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But the politicians aren't dumb, they know it's no-lose for them to do whatever lock downs measures they like. When the numbers do drop, they can claim that's the reason and you'll have little if any data to prove otherwise. If numbers don't drop for some reason, they can just claim the sheeple didn't follow the rules enough. Clever.
If they screw up the economy so badly people start losing their homes and going hungry they might find they can lose, whatever happens to the death rate from COVID-19.
Oh yeah, the politicians are already feeling the heat on the restrictions and have been forced by public opinion to ease restrictions. And our PM copped so much slack over suggesting the CovidSafe app might be mandatory that he had to publicly back down.
My fear is that lock downs will be a "new normal" and now that they have felt the lust of the power it gives them, they will enact it again at the drop of a hat. This must be resisted.
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My remedial massage place just reopened :-+
That was a lifting of government restrictions BTW.
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Consistent with many peoples suspicion, and counter to official govern-mental 'evidence', France has confirmed it's first medically proven Covid19 case was in late December.
BBC News: Coronavirus: France's first known case 'was in December'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554)
France24:A French hospital which has retested old samples from pneumonia patients discovered that it treated a man who had Covid-19 as early as Dec. 27, nearly a month before the French government confirmed its first cases. https://www.france24.com/en/20200505-france-s-first-known-covid-19-case-was-in-december (https://www.france24.com/en/20200505-france-s-first-known-covid-19-case-was-in-december)
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Consistent with many peoples suspicion, and counter to official govern-mental 'evidence', France has confirmed it's first medically proven Covid19 case was in late December.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. 1 doctor, 1 test is not extraordinary. I'll wait till this is investigated, peer reviewed and checked out.
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Consistent with many peoples suspicion, and counter to official govern-mental 'evidence', France has confirmed it's first medically proven Covid19 case was in late December.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. 1 doctor, 1 test is not extraordinary. I'll wait till this is investigated, peer reviewed and checked out.
I don't quite see what extraordinary evidence this should be. A patient was tested positive. Apart from a contaminated sample, nothing can change that to be a non-evidence.
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I'm gonna be working from home for a while, so I just might have to get used to the idea. Miss my desk, though, must admit that I'm a lot more productive when I work at the office. Had to put in extra hours to compensate since I've been working from home.
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Consistent with many peoples suspicion, and counter to official govern-mental 'evidence', France has confirmed it's first medically proven Covid19 case was in late December.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. 1 doctor, 1 test is not extraordinary. I'll wait till this is investigated, peer reviewed and checked out.
I don't quite see what extraordinary evidence this should be. A patient was tested positive. Apart from a contaminated sample, nothing can change that to be a non-evidence.
It's evidence, but not enough evidence. Tests are not 100% accurate. Contaminated, miss labelled samples etc.
But it's not impossible for someone to have travelled from Wuhan to France late december either.
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Consistent with many peoples suspicion, and counter to official govern-mental 'evidence', France has confirmed it's first medically proven Covid19 case was in late December.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. 1 doctor, 1 test is not extraordinary. I'll wait till this is investigated, peer reviewed and checked out.
I don't quite see what extraordinary evidence this should be. A patient was tested positive. Apart from a contaminated sample, nothing can change that to be a non-evidence.
I agree. Lately this thread seems to have been taken over by government conspiracy theorists.
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Consistent with many peoples suspicion, and counter to official govern-mental 'evidence', France has confirmed it's first medically proven Covid19 case was in late December.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Why would that claim be extraordinary? It's of no surprise what so ever. Wuhan had cases all through December, and we have these amazing things called airplanes that transport viruses around the world within days.
https://www.flightconnections.com/flights-from-wuhan-wuh (https://www.flightconnections.com/flights-from-wuhan-wuh)
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By the end of December the disease was already becoming problematic in Wuhan and many international businesses have operations there so people normally are flying in and out of Wuhan all of the time.
Globalization means many more coronaviruses and other illnesse will travel all over the globe, rapidly.
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I am resistivity to it precisely because it plays right into the narrative of the conspiracy theorists.
"It's all China's fault."
"China withheld data."
"It came from a Chinese lab".
Right along with the,
"They are lying; I had Coronavirus in November!"
and so on. Just wait, I guarantee you this will be picked up by them and used to sing their BS.
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You asked about airlines.
Here is the Monday morning Belfast to Heathrow service.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-52539141 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-52539141)
Plane 95% full.
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There's nothing to do atm, but I like tearing apart parts for my partsbin. Lots of stuff are being crapped out atm. Fired up my hobby so pull out all the parts!
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You asked about airlines.
Here is the Monday morning Belfast to Heathrow service.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-52539141 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-52539141)
Plane 95% full.
Social distancing will not be viable on planes it seems. Ryan Air for example have said they won't/can't do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHt6GI72JR0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHt6GI72JR0)
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Ryan air. LOL. If Ryan air could tip people into a cargo container and load them all into the hold they would.
You know Leery applied for a taxi license so that him and his wife could drive in the bus lanes in Dublin?
The same company who want to charge you to use the toilet.
I do NOT recommend flying with them, but if you ever have to and you are over 5ft high, get an isle seat, so you have somewhere to put your legs. I flew a 3 hour flight with RA and ended up with badly bruised knees.
You know the menu/shop card you get on board that lists the food and drink? Ryan air give you one per row and ask for it back at the end of the flight. They sell beers at full airline price (Around 8 Euro) but when you get it, it's a miniture 200ml can.
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"Scott Morrison says it's time to get Australians back to work after coronavirus shutdown"
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown)
Translation: "I'm sick of this crap too, let's get back to work, but make it appear slow because I have a lot of pissed of Karen's on social media who will kick up a stink, so I have to keep them happy."
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Ryan air. LOL. If Ryan air could tip people into a cargo container and load them all into the hold they would.
You know Leery applied for a taxi license so that him and his wife could drive in the bus lanes in Dublin?
The same company who want to charge you to use the toilet.
I do NOT recommend flying with them, but if you ever have to and you are over 5ft high, get an isle seat, so you have somewhere to put your legs. I flew a 3 hour flight with RA and ended up with badly bruised knees.
You know the menu/shop card you get on board that lists the food and drink? Ryan air give you one per row and ask for it back at the end of the flight. They sell beers at full airline price (Around 8 Euro) but when you get it, it's a miniture 200ml can.
Ahah yes. Took one Ryanair flight once. It was exactly like this. But sure the price was just incredibly low. Except there wasn't even one luggage allowed with that AFAIR, and I hadn't paid attention, so I had to pay 20 euros extra when I checked in. Ahah.
Didn't they say there were thinking about having passengers flying standing up for short flights? :-DD
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For the record, many people in my part of Lancashire in the UK, experienced from late November and throughout December, corona virus-like symptoms; cough, fever, breathing problems, loss of taste, etc. This pattern was repeated across the UK, as observed by a Covid symptom tracking app run by a research team from King's College London.
With or without having received a flu jab, those who did see a doctor where told they either just "had a flu virus" or, were given antibiotics to treat a throat or chest infection. Most people just had a "strange" or "troublesome" cold, and got over it. Brexit dominated the UK news agenda then, so a mystery bug would have gained little media attention.
Also at this time, the politicos would have had only the scientific evidence of the day to go on, which was, there is NO pandemic. A prognosis the British Prime Minister came to regret first hand.
As @eevblog points out, there were many international flights from Wuhan and associated cantons, including flights to Manchester, our local airport. btw Manchester, Liverpool and Preston have substantial Chinese resident and student populations.
So was Covid-19 outside of China before any official anouncement by the WHO? It would be a hard sell in my neighbourhood convincing people that Covid-19 was not already circulating in the UK before Christmas 2019.
Now all people want to know is, did I have it? An antibody testing programme would be more effective for easing the lockdown than having to rely on a "really smart" BLE phone app.
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"Scott Morrison says it's time to get Australians back to work after coronavirus shutdown"
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown)
Translation: "I'm sick of this crap too, let's get back to work, but make it appear slow because I have a lot of pissed of Karen's on social media who will kick up a stink, so I have to keep them happy."
I had to look that up - A "Karen" is typically used to refer to an entitled mum, who can be a bit irritating with her frequent requests to "talk to the manager." She may also have a giant bob haircut and drive a Volvo. https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/how-to-know-if-you-re-a-karen-and-other-terms-your-kids-have-adopted-20191120-p53cfa.html (https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/how-to-know-if-you-re-a-karen-and-other-terms-your-kids-have-adopted-20191120-p53cfa.html)
Daily New Cases in Australia
[attachimg=2]
Daily New Cases in USA
[attachimg=1]
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Interesting video on effects on airlines and air cargo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2oPk20OHBE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2oPk20OHBE)
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New SARS-Cov-2 mutation reported to be more transmissible https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1.full.pdf)
Preliminary, not peer-reviewed, not cause for panic.
Now we get to talk about Blue and Orange varieties. Mutations are not unusual and would certainly be expected as a virus circulates around. A biologically significant mutation, however, can be another matter. That is, with some 30,000 base pairs of RNA (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7161481/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7161481/)) nobody is surprised to find some differences as time goes on. In this case, the EARLY report suggests that the difference is biological significant.
Here is a decent discussion thread https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256422856436613126 (https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256422856436613126)
Here is still one of the best of those NYT 3-D articles reviewing the proteins and what they are thought to do. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/science/coronavirus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Health (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/science/coronavirus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Health)
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Could it have started in the UK?
For the record, many people in my part of Lancashire in the UK, experienced from late November and throughout December, corona virus-like symptoms; cough, fever, breathing problems, loss of taste, etc. This pattern was repeated across the UK, as observed by a Covid symptom tracking app run by a research team from King's College London.
With or without having received a flu jab, those who did see a doctor where told they either just "had a flu virus" or, were given antibiotics to treat a throat or chest infection. Most people just had a "strange" or "troublesome" cold, and got over it. Brexit dominated the UK news agenda then, so a mystery bug would have gained little media attention.
Also at this time, the politicos would have had only the scientific evidence of the day to go on, which was, there is NO pandemic. A prognosis the British Prime Minister came to regret first hand.
As @eevblog points out, there were many international flights from Wuhan and associated cantons, including flights to Manchester, our local airport. btw Manchester, Liverpool and Preston have substantial Chinese resident and student populations.
So was Covid-19 outside of China before any official anouncement by the WHO? It would be a hard sell in my neighbourhood convincing people that Covid-19 was not already circulating in the UK before Christmas 2019.
Now all people want to know is, did I have it? An antibody testing programme would be more effective for easing the lockdown than having to rely on a "really smart" BLE phone app.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The UK as well as the US are situations where the numbers have not fallen much. So IMHO its too early to end it here.
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Could it have started in the UK?
That's it though. Does it matter? Does it matter if it originated in my Ma's back yard? Does it even matter if it was someone's fault? Will that change anything? Will that make it any better?
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Over here we're pretty sure the virus was not already in circulation in Germany. As soon as the PCR test was available, it was was deployed through the influenza monitoring network. People with flu-like symptoms were also tested for Sars2. It never showed up.
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Could it have started in the UK?
That's it though. Does it matter? Does it matter if it originated in my Ma's back yard? Does it even matter if it was someone's fault? Will that change anything? Will that make it any better?
Of course it does, don't be ridiculous with your anti-science crap. Do you ever have a project fail and say who cares why or who did what? I hope not! If you don't know what happened or why you have 0 chance of preventing it next time or fixing the cause.
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Could it have started in the UK?
That's it though. Does it matter? Does it matter if it originated in my Ma's back yard? Does it even matter if it was someone's fault? Will that change anything? Will that make it any better?
Of course it does, don't be ridiculous with your anti-science crap. Do you ever have a project fail and say who cares why or who did what? I hope not! If you don't know what happened or why you have 0 chance of preventing it next time or fixing the cause.
I should have added. "Right now." You are totally correct for when the consensus comes together and "history" gets written.
I simple meant will knowing the precious details of who did what, why and when and putting blame will, right now, help anything. Will it stop people dying? Will it stop a "second wave"?
Please do NOT accuse me of anti-science shit. All I see here are people spitting outliers. I'm probably guilty too. This is expected, it's the peer-review vacuum. Science takes time, but people want answers NOW! So there is a vacuum of "complete" science and only individual preliminary experiments being published to help other scientists do better ones.
It will be much like war. History will be written afterwards by the victors.
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@DrG thanks for the links. The New York Times article is very informative. The functions of the RNA encoded proteins are reminiscent of a malware rootkit!
@cdev One suggestion, locally we experienced a 'pre-virus', where the coronavirus was not producing dangerous viral loads. Although highly contageous, the necessary mutation or critical infection mass was yet to come. Or it was something else that went extinct in January. WE JUST DON'T KNOW!
@paulca WE JUST DON'T KNOW!
@thinkfat Germany got a handle on the virus from day zero. Today the UK death toll exeeded Spain, Italy and France, placing Britain second to the USA.
@eevblog Siri's real name is Aussie Karen (true/false)?
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I should have added. "Right now."
Might do. If it was circulating for a couple of months before we thought, the hyperbolic graph of cases would have a somewhere different meaning, wouldn't it? That is, the contagiousness of it is either lower than we think or it's changed since it was first around.
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@thinkfat Germany got a handle on the virus from day zero. Today the UK death toll exeeded Spain, Italy and France, placing Britain second to the USA.
That illustrates how the general public likes to processes numbers, without weighting for population. Probably part of that it feels good say, "Look, we're not as bad as the USA". However, if one looks at deaths per million population, the UK (67 million) death rate is about double the USA (330 million). Then again, if you look at the worst spot inside the USA, the state of New York (20 million) has about triple the death rate of the UK. Similarly, I suspect England has a higher death rate than the other countries in the UK, but I don't have those numbers.
Give it time, however. A large chunk of the USA is farther back on the curve then Europe, so the numbers are going to change in the coming months. Especially in those states that never shut down or are choosing to reopen for economic or political reasons.
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Interesting video on effects on airlines and air cargo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2oPk20OHBE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2oPk20OHBE)
on similar note, ..
https://youtu.be/qlofy7ar2w8 (https://youtu.be/qlofy7ar2w8)
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Interesting video on effects on airlines and air cargo.
That was BIG boost for the train freight to/from China. Even China Post finally switched 'Air Mail' into 'Train Mail'. 2000 tons of delayed e-commerce packets are coming!
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Scary article about India's "reopening", infections there are already starting to climb up again, and India has precious little public health infrastructure even during the best of times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/world/asia/india-coronavirus-lockdown-infections.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/world/asia/india-coronavirus-lockdown-infections.html)
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It's supposedly mutating now. According to this Los Alamos preprint.
Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more
transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2
Korber B 1 , Fischer WM 1 , Gnanakaran S 1 , Yoon H 1 , Theiler J 1 , Abfalterer W 1 , Foley
B 1 , Giorgi EE 1 , Bhattacharya T 1 , Parker MD 3 , Partridge DG 4 , Evans CM 4 , Freeman
TM 3 , de Silva TI 4,5 , on behalf of the Sheffield COVID-19 Genomics Group # ,
LaBranche CC 2 , and Montefiori DC 2
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054
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"Scott Morrison says it's time to get Australians back to work after coronavirus shutdown"
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown)
Translation: "I'm sick of this crap too, let's get back to work, but make it appear slow because I have a lot of pissed of Karen's on social media who will kick up a stink, so I have to keep them happy."
As long as we keep YOU happy Dave, and maintain your HIGHness & lack of responsibility...
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It's supposedly mutating now. According to this Los Alamos preprint.
...
That's a very interesting set of graphs with some important conclusions. They show why Germany was able to supress the outbreak so effectively, because it was not facing the same R0 value as Italy. And then why Germany experienced a second more deadly peak. Also, why the UK and New York State have been so badly hit. I would be interested to see the curves for Belgium, as they've the worse per capita death rate. Australia is also fighting the 'weaker' strain, so reducing the lock down would make sense, but. Japan is an illustration of why our guard should not be dropped just to suit the news cycle. This outbreak is far too nuanced to fit into a sound bite.
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It's supposedly mutating now. According to this Los Alamos preprint.
...
That's a very interesting set of graphs with some important conclusions. They show why Germany was able to supress the outbreak so effectively, because it was not facing the same R0 value as Italy. And then why Germany experienced a second more deadly peak. Also, why the UK and New York State have been so badly hit. I would be interested to see the curves for Belgium, as they've the worse per capita death rate. Australia is also fighting the 'weaker' strain, so reducing the lock down would make sense, but. Japan is an illustration of why our guard should not be dropped just to suit the news cycle. This outbreak is far too nuanced to fit into a sound bite.
I don't believe that those are safe assumptions at all (different R0 values) at this point.
When I posted the link to that study, https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/working-from-home-impacts-of-coronavirus/msg3051026/#msg3051026 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/working-from-home-impacts-of-coronavirus/msg3051026/#msg3051026)
I tried to make the point that mutations are to be expected. Even I am aware of several documented mutations and I think it is a safe bet that there are more.
The issue is whether this mutation is biologically significant. The author's argued that this one (the mutated SARS-Cov-2) made the virus more transmissible. The data for that contention are distinctly underwhelming. At this point, many do not agree with their conclusion in that regard. In my original post, I linked a thread that explicitly discussed that point.
That it is a valid "mutation" is not at issue.
Non-biologically significant mutations can still prove to be valuable for tracking the virus.
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It's supposedly mutating now. According to this Los Alamos preprint.
...
That's a very interesting set of graphs with some important conclusions. They show why Germany was able to supress the outbreak so effectively, because it was not facing the same R0 value as Italy. And then why Germany experienced a second more deadly peak. Also, why the UK and New York State have been so badly hit. I would be interested to see the curves for Belgium, as they've the worse per capita death rate. Australia is also fighting the 'weaker' strain, so reducing the lock down would make sense, but. Japan is an illustration of why our guard should not be dropped just to suit the news cycle. This outbreak is far too nuanced to fit into a sound bite.
There was no second wave in Germany. We had one tiny initial group that was easily contained, and then we imported a lot of virus from Ischgl. That explains the high infection count in Bavaria. It spread in the western areas through carnival and through the clubs in the big cities, like Berlin. Other regions are hardly affected at all. My city has no more than 210 total cases. The whole Corona thing is a very regional event over here. We have some hotspots, but by and large it wasn't a big problem.
In fact it was so little a problem that people are now protesting the restrictions. Many don't understand that, had we done nothing, we'd be mourning many more deaths by now.
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That's the inherent problem with restrictions. When they work, it creates the impression that they were not needed. People don't think about the fact that it's because of the restrictions that there is not a high infection rate.
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There may be no second wave yet, but I'd say it's too early to say there won't be one before the year is over.
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That's the inherent problem with restrictions. When they work, it creates the impression that they were not needed. People don't think about the fact that it's because of the restrictions that there is not a high infection rate.
Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)
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There may be no second wave yet, but I'd say it's too early to say there won't be one before the year is over.
I expect a "2nd wave" here in Australia, but I'd be very surprised if it's not greatly reduced amplitude.
Heck, our numbers are already so low that all it takes is one location like a nursing home and one careless worker there to single handedly double or triple our national numbers.
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Here in the UK, it's a bit of a war zone, and I would not wish this on our Aussie cousins. So ease back slowly. Up here we're heading into summer, but you guys are approaching flu season? Talk of a second wave kind of prompted me to think of this classic Aussie movie, The Last Wave https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Wave
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Just a heads up, the drug industry here is gearing up for a "once in a lifetime business opportunity" like never before.
And they fully intend to make a killing.
https://theintercept.com/2020/03/13/big-pharma-drug-pricing-coronavirus-profits/
https://greenworld.org.uk/article/patented-covid-19-vaccine-could-price-out-millions
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Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)
Absolutely, the same applies to all of those things, how do you really know which action contributed by how much? It stands to reason that if someone is isolated then they will not contract a virus or spread it to someone else, but how much do less drastic methods help? It's very difficult to know, it's not like we can really have a large control group that does nothing, and various groups that try different methods.
No matter what we do to slow the spread, if it works, it will appear to many that it was not necessary. I certainly don't have all the answers, I thought the whole thing was hype until I saw the dramatically increasing infection numbers.
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Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)
Absolutely, the same applies to all of those things, how do you really know which action contributed by how much? It stands to reason that if someone is isolated then they will not contract a virus or spread it to someone else, but how much do less drastic methods help? It's very difficult to know, it's not like we can really have a large control group that does nothing, and various groups that try different methods.
No matter what we do to slow the spread, if it works, it will appear to many that it was not necessary. I certainly don't have all the answers, I thought the whole thing was hype until I saw the dramatically increasing infection numbers.
Also let's not forget that something like >40% of the population were not isolated and in lockdown (I've seen numbers up to 50%). Everyone might feel like the entire country/city is in lockdown and no one is going out, but there are massive amounts of "essential" workers who's lives didn't change apart from increased hygiene and "social distancing".
It's a shame we may never have real concrete numbers on this because I fear that governments will do lock downs again at the drop of a hat, and if that's based on incomplete or just assumed data, then that's bad.
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Culture and also living density make a lot of difference. People in NYC live in tiny places. They travel by public transport where lots of people are crammed together. You are lucky if you can find a seat. Lots and lots of people all moving very fast. Workplaces are almost always crowded there. If you want quiet you either have to get a meeting room to talk, or leave, go outside. If youre lucky there is some open space... on the roof.
So basically in places like NYC, when people are not under lockdown, "social distancing" is literally impossible. Its impossible to go about your daily business without getting physically close to people because you get crammed next to people everywhere. For example, when you wait to cross the street. A lot of the time in NYC when I want to get somewhere fast, and I am not going that far, say from a subway stop to whatever building I a going to, I will step off the curb and walk in the street instead of on the sidewalk against the traffic, so I can see it. Its faster because the people clog the sidewalk. I havent been to NYC in over three months. I havent been there since before this whole thing started.
I'm not eager to go either. I really love NYC and previous to this still felt more at home there then I do in the town I live in now.
But I sure am glad I dont live there now. Especially people who are on their own and/or poor. Not being able to work and still having to pay that huge rent. It must be absolutely horrible. I bet you that whenever this settles down a lot of people who are struggling now will opt to, or in many cases be forced to move somewhere else.
Its hard to say what will happen. As far as NYC they had absolutely no choice but to do something like this. Or it would have been much much worse. They are doing the bare minimum now that they can. There is not much you can do besides keep people indoors and away from one another when you have 10 million people.
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We wont know until next flu season (the winter) if there is a second wave here in the Northwern hemisphere. There is the herald wave and then the real wave. The term is borrowed from tsunamis.
For some example usage and accounts of how it works, go to PubMed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=%22herald%20wave%22 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=%22herald%20wave%22)
Also, this looks interesting
A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23701386 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23701386)
We describe a multiple strain Susceptible Infected Recovered deterministic model for the spread of an influenza subtype within a population. The model incorporates appearance of new strains due to antigenic drift, and partial immunity to reinfection with related circulating strains. It also includes optional seasonal forcing of the transmission rate of the virus, which allows for comparison between temperate zones and the tropics. Our model is capable of reproducing observed qualitative patterns such as the overall annual outbreaks in the temperate region, a reduced magnitude and an increased frequency of outbreaks in the tropics, and the herald wave phenomenon. Our approach to modelling antigenic drift is novel and further modifications of this model may help improve the understanding of complex influenza dynamics.
AMS Subject Classification: 92D30; 92D15
Keywords: influenza, antigenic drift, cross-immunity, multiple strains, seasonality
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Culture and also living density make a lot of difference. People in NYC live in tiny places. They travel by public transport where lots of people are crammed together. You are lucky if you can find a seat. Lots and lots of people all moving very fast. Workplaces are almost always crowded there. If you want quiet you either have to get a meeting room to talk, or leave, go outside. If youre lucky there is some open space... on the roof. So basically in places like NYC, when people are not under lockdown, "social distancing" is literally impossible. Its impossible to go about your daily business without getting physically close to people because you get crammed next to people everywhere. For example, when you wait to cross the street. A lot of the time in NYC when I want to get somewhere fast, and I am not going that far, say from a subway stop to whatever building I a going to, I will step off the curb and walk in the street instead of on the sidewalk against the traffic, so I can see it. Its faster because the people clog the sidewalk.
It's nuts compared to Sydney.
1.6M people live in Manhatten (59sqkm), compared to Sydney that isn't even on the list.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_proper_by_population_density
But compared to say Inner Western Sydney that has 200,000 for 35sqkm, so scaling that to match Manhatten would be 337,000, or around 1/5th the population density here in our of our most densely populated parts of Sydney.
https://profile.id.com.au/inner-west/about
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Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)
Absolutely, the same applies to all of those things, how do you really know which action contributed by how much? It stands to reason that if someone is isolated then they will not contract a virus or spread it to someone else, but how much do less drastic methods help? It's very difficult to know, it's not like we can really have a large control group that does nothing, and various groups that try different methods.
No matter what we do to slow the spread, if it works, it will appear to many that it was not necessary. I certainly don't have all the answers, I thought the whole thing was hype until I saw the dramatically increasing infection numbers.
Also let's not forget that something like >40% of the population were not isolated and in lockdown (I've seen numbers up to 50%). Everyone might feel like the entire country/city is in lockdown and no one is going out, but there are massive amounts of "essential" workers who's lives didn't change apart from increased hygiene and "social distancing".
It's a shame we may never have real concrete numbers on this because I fear that governments will do lock downs again at the drop of a hat, and if that's based on incomplete or just assumed data, then that's bad.
You will get no argument from me on the challenges that need to be met. We do know how to answer many of those questions with regard to what works and doesn't work, but we can't ever run those experiments because they are immoral, unethical and illegal - and we all know that.
I don't know what "assumed data" are. The data are the data and the data, so long as they are not simply faked, are always right- I so believe. Our analyses, understanding and interpretation of the data, however, are frequently wrong.
Data we are collecting now will be analyzed for decades and by many people. What I think I can ask is for Governments to make evidence-based decisions - and obviously with consultation with scientists. When it is clear that the evidence is insufficient for some desirable / acceptable level of confidence, there is still the burden of making a decision, even if it is to do nothing. Since none of these decisions are without cost (including doing nothing), they will be scrutinized for many years. Hopefully, correct consequences can be attributed to the decisions, but as pointed out already, that is not so easy in many cases. Still, we need to try.
Well into Covid-19 we were being told that there was no point in wearing face masks - even to the extent that some said you would actually enhance your chance of infection wearing one (apparently because you were more likely to touch your face). How do you think that "decision" will be scored? Admittedly, I have not seen irrefutable evidence that wearing the typical cheap face mask has any significant effect on the likelihood of infection. Once we know, however, that the virus can spread through droplets (cough / sneeze / say and spray), do we need to run the experiment to have some level of confidence that if you are infected (symptomatic or asymptomatic) it is beneficial to wear a face mask to mitigate spreading your virus-filled droplets?
I know that some have said that the early decision to not recommend wearing masks was for other reasons (i.e., leaving no masks for critical workers), but that is hardly being truthful and it made little or no sense or, was downright disingenuous and hiding a different problem.
Then, it all changed and many places in the US that are open, now do not allow entry without a face covering. I think it is the correct decision and delaying that decision was costly - but I can't prove that, at least not yet.
I was scrolling through this list of the top 20 epidemics / pandemics https://www.livescience.com/worst-epidemics-and-pandemics-in-history.html (https://www.livescience.com/worst-epidemics-and-pandemics-in-history.html) and thinking about where we stand in regard to handling them.
I am afraid that we don't always seem to do so well, but we are getting better as we learn more and more.
HIV/AIDS is a good example. Today, people with AIDS do not have to die from AIDS. For quite a while, that was simply not true. But, it has taken many years to advance our knowledge to that point. Progress is painfully slow. Slower if we abandon the pursuit of knowledge.
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Re: AIDS. Bill Haddad died recently, he was that rare person, a pharma company exec who tried to do what he could to improve the world.
About Bill Haddad
William F. Haddad: Chairman/CEO, Biogenerics, Inc., has been a pharmaceutical executive since 1986. As Chairman of the generic trade association, he initiated and negotiated Hatch-Waxman, the legislation that opened the door to generics in the United States. He was CEO of a major generic manufacturing company. Earlier he worked with Jack and Robert Kennedy and Senator Estes Kefauver. He was one of the founders of both the U.S. Peace Corps and the Office of Economic Opportunity (poverty program) and served as the Inspector General or both organizations. As a newsman at the NY Herald Tribune and the NY Post, he won a dozen awards for investigative reporting. He also learned about the wiretapping of Watergate three weeks before the break-in and reported it to the Democratic leadership. He exposed the worldwide tetracycline cartel by locating secret cartel minutes in two Latin American countries, destroying the cartel and leading to a $200,000,000 fine for Pfizer. He also found the secret minutes of the Uranium cartel that led to Congressional hearings conducted by then Congressman Albert Gore and Haddad. Using New York State’s subpoena he uncovered of the role of the New York banks in profiting from the collapse of the City’s financial system; located and exposed secret state police files that contained the names of a million citizens almost all had neither been accused of or committed a crime; he investigated organized crime’s role in sports; and he subpoenaed the major television networks to explain covert arrangements with advertisers in advertising to children. As a volunteer, he worked with Cipla to remove the barriers to the use of generic AIDS medicines. He has published several books. He was a merchant marine officer at sea when he was sixteen.
http://billhaddad.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html (http://billhaddad.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html)
If you dig a bit there (its the only other story on his blog) there is also what seems to be his description of the AIDS crisis and the US pharmaceutical industry. Some of it is about the events that were depicted in the film "Fire in the Blood".
http://billhaddad.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-aids-story-you-may-not-have-heard.html?view=sidebar (http://billhaddad.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-aids-story-you-may-not-have-heard.html?view=sidebar)
What a mess..
They should be investigating approaches more like resveratrol because they may make us more resistant to viruses in a general way,
(See https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=resveratrol+virus (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=resveratrol+virus) )
while vaccines only give you immunity against a very narrow number of potential viruses and are likely to be expensive and quite possibly useless eventually due to viruses mutating making the immunity less effective.
This is worth reading too:
Sirtuins Are Evolutionarily Conserved Viral Restriction Factors
https://mbio.asm.org/content/mbio/5/6/e02249-14.full.pdf (https://mbio.asm.org/content/mbio/5/6/e02249-14.full.pdf)
Unless we do the research we won't know if it helps, even though there seems to be a good chance that it does.
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Regarding the effects of the lock downs, social distance, etc, if that is really necessary or not, we need to check the numbers.
Its almost concensus that herd immunity occurs when around 70% of the population get the virus.
The mortality rate of covid19 is being estimated between 0.5% and 1% (one of the best guess we have is the city of NY, where is estimated that 25% of population were infected and they have around 14 K deaths). Let's consider a mortality rate of 0.7%.
Then, the number of expected deaths is 0.5% of the population.
If nothing is done, all that deaths will occur in 2 to 5 months. With social distancing measures we extend this period. But at the end the deaths number will be the same 0.5% of the population.
Why extend this period:
1- to not collapse the health system, otherwise the mortality rate increases significantly, and more than 0.5% of the population will die;
2- a vaccine can be found before we reach the herd immunity, and less people will die;
3- a treatment that reduces the mortality rate can be found, and less people will die.
The first point is more important because its impacts are immediate, so the social distancing measures should be guided by the health system capabilities.
The later two are our best desires, but it's hard to justify the economic loss of a long lock down waiting for a vaccine or treatment that we don't know if is viable or how long it will take.
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The later two are our best desires, but it's hard to justify the economic loss of a long lock down waiting for a vaccine or treatment that we don't know if is viable or how long it will take.
Many governments (including ours) were literally saying "These lockdown laws will stay in effect until a vaccine is found", until a week or two later when the reality dawned on them that's the dumbest idea in history.
Protect and isolate both the vulnerable and infected, educate everyone and get most of society back on track as quickly as possible.
The thing with the 0.X% mortality rate is that it disproportionally impacts the elderly and other certain at risk people, so one could rightly argue that forced lockdowns for otherwise very low risk people maybe wasn't the best idea, especially given that circa 40% of the population weren't locked down anyway because they were too busy keeping society going.
But again, forced lockdowns were probably the most sensible option at the time given we knew very little about it, this could change next time around. I don't think the governments will get the same leeway they did this time when they have to lock down again (and you can bet it's going to happen again, because it's the "new normal"), and governments get drunk on power like that.
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The later two are our best desires, but it's hard to justify the economic loss of a long lock down waiting for a vaccine or treatment that we don't know if is viable or how long it will take.
Many governments (including ours) were literally saying "These lockdown laws will stay in effect until a vaccine is found", until a week or two later when the reality dawned on them that's the dumbest idea in history.
You have to add some nuances to that. You'll see that most countries will bring things back to normal in the next few months with the exception that large scale events will remain forbidden, staying and working at home (as much as possible) and social distancing will be required. Unless it turns out that stricter rules are necessary to keep Covid-19 spreading at a limited rate but at this point nobody knows exactly where the tipping point lies. So yes, the lockdown laws will remain in effect but the rules won't be as strict. IMHO it is unlikely we'll see total lockdowns agains. Countries like the Netherlands and Sweden have shown that keeping people locked inside isn't necessary to prevent an exponential spread of Covid-19.
It is kind of like testing when a fuse blows without going through a whole box of fuses. If you start at 100A and step down you'll likely need to test many fuses. If you start at 1mA and slowly ramp up, you'll only blow one fuse.
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Well into Covid-19 we were being told that there was no point in wearing face masks - even to the extent that some said you would actually enhance your chance of infection wearing one (apparently because you were more likely to touch your face). How do you think that "decision" will be scored? Admittedly, I have not seen irrefutable evidence that wearing the typical cheap face mask has any significant effect on the likelihood of infection. Once we know, however, that the virus can spread through droplets (cough / sneeze / say and spray), do we need to run the experiment to have some level of confidence that if you are infected (symptomatic or asymptomatic) it is beneficial to wear a face mask to mitigate spreading your virus-filled droplets?
I know that some have said that the early decision to not recommend wearing masks was for other reasons (i.e., leaving no masks for critical workers), but that is hardly being truthful and it made little or no sense or, was downright disingenuous and hiding a different problem.
The Dutch team of experts (about 40 scientists) which gives advice to the government is still at the position that wearing a face mask in general has no value in the grand scheme of things. However since a face mask has a limited positive effect when used temporary, wearing one will be mandatory in public transport from next month. Using a face mask right is a big issue. I just spotted a photo showing a woman selling flowers in Mexico. She had a nice floral face mask which didn't cover her nose.
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Australia did very well, according with the available data, and deserves slowly going back to the normal. Looking at new cases per day, it started increasing, reaching a local maximum, and decreased to very low numbers. Now it will start to relaxing and at one point the cases will start to increase again, and more restrictive measures will be necessary.
Here in Brazil we started with social distance measures very well, it was early and through all the country. But when the new cases curve started to stabilize we relaxed, before the decrease of new cases. The consequence is a very high (out of control) increase of new cases, and various states are now facing the health system collapse, requiring a total lock down to remedy the situation. But as the system has a delay of about two weeks, even with a effective lock down now we will suffer a lot in the next two or more weeks. Unfortunately, maybe our government will not take this seriously and the situation will be worse.
To be clear, the health system collapse means that regardless of your financial situation, if you have a health insurance or not, if you get sick and need an ICU, you will not have. It's when the doctors must choose who will have treatment, and who will send back to die in home. No one wants to be in that situation.
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IMHO it is unlikely we'll see total lockdowns agains. Countries like the Netherlands and Sweden have shown that keeping people locked inside isn't necessary to prevent an exponential spread of Covid-19.
And again, there never was a total lock down anywhere, as typically circa 40% of people were still out of their home doing essential work.
So yeah, not surprising that you don't necessarily need to lock people in their homes.
I think just general awareness and good hygiene is likely enough to curtail true exponential spread in the general population.
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Australia did very well, according with the available data, and deserves slowly going back to the normal. Looking at new cases per day, it started increasing, reaching a local maximum, and decreased to very low numbers. Now it will start to relaxing and at one point the cases will start to increase again, and more restrictive measures will be necessary.
It's going to be hard to justify another shutdown unless daily cases increase by an order of magnitude here. We are currently oscillating around 20 cases a day, usually as the result of a few particular specific locations like a famous nursing home here where 16% of our deaths nation wide have come from.
It's fascinating the study the data on this stuff, it's rather addictive.
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Here in the UK we didn't do a lockdown but were asked to be sensible in doing social distancing. The result? We have the highest numbers of deaths in Europe and had to have an enforced lockdown. The simple fact is that people en mass are dicks and will do whatever the hell they want if not forced to do something else. Just look at how quickly the rule of law breaks down when there's a disaster - Katrina, for instance. So whilst lockdowns to combat the virus may not be necessary and we could do it gently and sensibly in theory, they are essential just to get down to even those 40% you mention.
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Where are the FET COVID-19 biosensor meters (https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c02823)?
(which give instant testing results, and could make it possible to ramp up the amount of testing)
Citation: Rapid Detection of COVID-19 Causative Virus (SARS-CoV-2) in Human Nasopharyngeal Swab Specimens Using Field-Effect Transistor-Based Biosensor | ACS Nano
(https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c02823)
Here in the UK we didn't do a lockdown but were asked to be sensible in doing social distancing. The result? We have the highest numbers of deaths in Europe and had to have an enforced lockdown. The simple fact is that people en mass are dicks and will do whatever the hell they want if not forced to do something else. Just look at how quickly the rule of law breaks down when there's a disaster - Katrina, for instance. So whilst lockdowns to combat the virus may not be necessary and we could do it gently and sensibly in theory, they are essential just to get down to even those 40% you mention.
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Where are the FET COVID-19 biosensor meters (https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c02823)?
(which give instant testing results, and could make it possible to ramp up the amount of testing)
Citation: Rapid Detection of COVID-19 Causative Virus (SARS-CoV-2) in Human Nasopharyngeal Swab Specimens Using Field-Effect Transistor-Based Biosensor | ACS Nano
(https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c02823)
Here in the UK we didn't do a lockdown but were asked to be sensible in doing social distancing. The result? We have the highest numbers of deaths in Europe and had to have an enforced lockdown. The simple fact is that people en mass are dicks and will do whatever the hell they want if not forced to do something else. Just look at how quickly the rule of law breaks down when there's a disaster - Katrina, for instance. So whilst lockdowns to combat the virus may not be necessary and we could do it gently and sensibly in theory, they are essential just to get down to even those 40% you mention.
No such thing as instant testing results. Even the article only claims rapid testing. The "> 1 min" result time in that last chart doesn't inspire confidence...there's a LOT of room above 1 minute. ("instantaneous measurement" when used by scientists refers to data at a particular point in time, not how fast it takes to produce/process that data.)
In any case, technology takes time and engineering to move from a lab to prototypes that can be used in the real world. And assuming that's successful, a lot more time to produce in sufficient numbers to have any real effect. In normal conditions, we're typically talking years. Even in pandemic conditions with a blank check and assuming the science isn't flawed, ramping up production, quality control and distribution won't happen overnight. (If the science was tested enough to justify a blank check from some government, we'd probably be hearing about it by now.)
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Might even be able to turn this technology into a Covid breathalyzer?
A bit more on how graphene biosensors function:
https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-sensors (https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-sensors)
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Thank you!
See also:
https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-frontiers-gfet-chemical-sensor-explained (https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-frontiers-gfet-chemical-sensor-explained)
"The company is currently targeting two main applications: early detection of Lyme disease and cancer detection. Graphene Frontiers will first enter the research-use-only (RUO) market with a basic, customizable product. This is a limited volume market (orders may reach a few hundreds of chips), but later on they want to also enter the diagnostic and consumer health markets - which may require tens of millions of chips.
In the first stage, the company aims to produce those GFET-based sensors on 4" wafers in low-volume (few wafers per day) in-house. The chip itself is about 5x5 mm in size, and will come in multiplex/array of about 10 devices. Each chip is expected to cost a "few dollars". Later in 2014 they will partner with a MEMS fab for mass-scale 4" wafer production. By 2015, they plan to be able to produce tens of millions of chips per year."
So it was supposed to be quite affordable at that stage, a few years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbgTco9S9E (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbgTco9S9E)
Presumably this kind of meter is how they propose to do something like analyzing feces in the sewer system for COVID-19, presumably to gather aggregate data on peoples health status .
Instant testing would allow them to focus more on the aspects of the COVID-19 situation that could make it less of a problem now. (like better, inexpensive diagnosis and treatments, in this case, instant testing that could get people into treatment earlier.)
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IMHO it is unlikely we'll see total lockdowns agains. Countries like the Netherlands and Sweden have shown that keeping people locked inside isn't necessary to prevent an exponential spread of Covid-19.
And again, there never was a total lock down anywhere, as typically circa 40% of people were still out of their home doing essential work.
So yeah, not surprising that you don't necessarily need to lock people in their homes.
I think just general awareness and good hygiene is likely enough to curtail true exponential spread in the general population.
I disagree, please see below.
Australia did very well, according with the available data, and deserves slowly going back to the normal. Looking at new cases per day, it started increasing, reaching a local maximum, and decreased to very low numbers. Now it will start to relaxing and at one point the cases will start to increase again, and more restrictive measures will be necessary.
It's going to be hard to justify another shutdown unless daily cases increase by an order of magnitude here. We are currently oscillating around 20 cases a day, usually as the result of a few particular specific locations like a famous nursing home here where 16% of our deaths nation wide have come from.
It's fascinating the study the data on this stuff, it's rather addictive.
It's a great achievement, excellent number. While that number remains stable, you are good.
Here in the UK we didn't do a lockdown but were asked to be sensible in doing social distancing. The result? We have the highest numbers of deaths in Europe and had to have an enforced lockdown. The simple fact is that people en mass are dicks and will do whatever the hell they want if not forced to do something else. Just look at how quickly the rule of law breaks down when there's a disaster - Katrina, for instance. So whilst lockdowns to combat the virus may not be necessary and we could do it gently and sensibly in theory, they are essential just to get down to even those 40% you mention.
Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.
[attachimg=1]
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IMHO it is unlikely we'll see total lockdowns agains. Countries like the Netherlands and Sweden have shown that keeping people locked inside isn't necessary to prevent an exponential spread of Covid-19.
And again, there never was a total lock down anywhere, as typically circa 40% of people were still out of their home doing essential work.
So yeah, not surprising that you don't necessarily need to lock people in their homes.
In Belgium, Italy and the UK they have/had pretty strict lock downs where people wheren't allowed outside without a good reason (buying food or going to work). Also the people who are going to the shops or work have to keep a distance. A Belgian friend of mine wasn't even allowed to visit his next door neighbour. That sounds like a total lock down to me but this is getting into semantics.
I think just general awareness and good hygiene is likely enough to curtail true exponential spread in the general population.
I know you strongly wish this to be true (I wish it was true too; nobody is having a good time right now) but realistically it isn't. Transmission through air is also an important way to spread the virus and that isn't stopped by washing your hands, disinfecting door knobs or wearing face masks. My estimate is that until there is a vaccine and / or herd immunity at least social distancing is necessary to slow the spread of Covid19 down to a rate where health care can keep up. Only time will tell what else is necessary but it is going to be more than washing your hands for sure. If extra hygiene was enough then the outbreak would not have spiraled out of control the way it has. As I stated before: at some point extra hygiene doesn't add anything to preventing the spread of 'flu' virusses (Corona, Influeze, Rhino). These are so contagious that only full isolation helps. But that has other problems long term; look at how severely isolated tribes can be affected by the flu because they have no immunity at all.
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That's the inherent problem with restrictions. When they work, it creates the impression that they were not needed. People don't think about the fact that it's because of the restrictions that there is not a high infection rate.
Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)
No one knows. It might also be due to less pollution, making people less susceptible to the disease.
Yes public awareness will help to prevent a second wave, even when governments ease restrictions, but my fear is people will become complacent. I don't know about Australia, but I think it will be awhile before we can safely reopen more risky areas of the economy such as hairdressers, nightclubs, pubs and restaurants.
IMHO it is unlikely we'll see total lockdowns agains. Countries like the Netherlands and Sweden have shown that keeping people locked inside isn't necessary to prevent an exponential spread of Covid-19.
And again, there never was a total lock down anywhere, as typically circa 40% of people were still out of their home doing essential work.
So yeah, not surprising that you don't necessarily need to lock people in their homes.
I think just general awareness and good hygiene is likely enough to curtail true exponential spread in the general population.
True, there has never been a lockdown in most countries. Only regions in certain countries with very high death-tolls, such as Wuhan and a place in Italy I can't remember. People were literally sealed in their houses and food was delivered to their doors. Here in the UK only the relatively high risk businesses had to close. Areas such as construction and manufacturing were allowed to continue, even if they weren't essential, although many companies chose to close anyway. Recently many businesses which were never compelled to close have reopened and I think we should wait to see what will happen, before any further easing of restrictions.
I don't think the governments will get the same leeway they did this time when they have to lock down again (and you can bet it's going to happen again, because it's the "new normal"), and governments get drunk on power like that.
I doubt most governments will enforce unnecessary lockdowns, as they tend to cut tax revenues which cost them a lot of money.
Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.
I wouldn't trust those graphs much, as they're subject to levels of testing.
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Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.
I wouldn't trust those graphs much, as they're subject to levels of testing.
Me too, you're correct. But it's the only data we have. Other than that, we will be only guessing.
Even with poor data, is better to be data driven than be based only in personal opinions.
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https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-frontiers-gfet-chemical-sensor-explained (https://www.graphene-info.com/graphene-frontiers-gfet-chemical-sensor-explained)
...ETC...
Instant testing would allow them to focus more on the aspects of the COVID-19 situation that could make it less of a problem now. (like better, inexpensive diagnosis and treatments, in this case, instant testing that could get people into treatment earlier.)
I checked out Graphene Frontiers and the company seems quiescent. Not much info or activity after 2016. But then they are a tiny research startup.
gFET family detectors could make diagnosis of Covid19 rapid (within 90 minutes?) and in an operator friendly package :) The consumable parts of a testing rig would be cheap, say $1 each. Maybe a test subject just licks a plastic tab containing the chip?
Could rapid diagnosis be the breakthrough 'killer application' that graphene has long been searching for?
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Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.
I wouldn't trust those graphs much, as they're subject to levels of testing.
Me too, you're correct. But it's the only data we have. Other than that, we will be only guessing.
Even with poor data, is better to be data driven than be based only in personal opinions.
I disagree.
Poor data is no better than opinion. It also depends on how well informed the opinion is. For example, I'd trust the opinion of a clinician, over data from the governement. if an emergency doctor believes COVID-19 cases are increasing because they're treating more and more people with an unknown repository disease and they can't test everyone, yet the government are reporting a decrease in COVID-19 cases, then I'd certainly believe the doctor, over the government.
We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.
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Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.
I wouldn't trust those graphs much, as they're subject to levels of testing.
Me too, you're correct. But it's the only data we have. Other than that, we will be only guessing.
Even with poor data, is better to be data driven than be based only in personal opinions.
I disagree.
Poor data is no better than opinion. It also depends on how well informed the opinion is. For example, I'd trust the opinion of a clinician, over data from the governement. if an emergency doctor believes COVID-19 cases are increasing because they're treating more and more people with an unknown repository disease and they can't test everyone, yet the government are reporting a decrease in COVID-19 cases, then I'd certainly believe the doctor, over the government.
We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.
Ok, but that clinician opinion in your example is data driven. And if you want a local picture of the situation I believe there is no better source than that.
I heard somewhere that in a pandemia, the better thermometer of the situation is the gravedigger.
That same issue with death data you cited is happening in UK, is happening here in Brazil too.
Unfortunately, if you want a big picture instead of a local one, we only have that poor data.
Although poor, I want to believe that data is above the noise floor.
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Exactly! Here in Brazil we started well with everyone in home, but we relaxed the social isolating early. Then, even with much better general awareness and good hygiene, see what happened compared with Australia. Please pay attention that Brazil and Australia have much in common, like south hemisphere, weather, dimensions, etc.
I wouldn't trust those graphs much, as they're subject to levels of testing.
Me too, you're correct. But it's the only data we have. Other than that, we will be only guessing.
Even with poor data, is better to be data driven than be based only in personal opinions.
I disagree.
Poor data is no better than opinion. It also depends on how well informed the opinion is. For example, I'd trust the opinion of a clinician, over data from the governement. if an emergency doctor believes COVID-19 cases are increasing because they're treating more and more people with an unknown repository disease and they can't test everyone, yet the government are reporting a decrease in COVID-19 cases, then I'd certainly believe the doctor, over the government.
IMHO it is very important to look whether information is based on the opinion of one person riding a high horse versus a group of scientists which has produced a balanced view on a subject based on facts. In times like these there are lots of doctors and scientists (not necessarily experts in the field) looking to get their 15 minutes of fame.
We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.
That is true. In the Netherlands there are also more people dying compared to long term averages. This data is collected by the government statistics bureau.
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We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.
That is true. In the Netherlands there are also more people dying compared to long term averages. This data is collected by the government statistics bureau.
In the Brazilian city Manaus, state of Amazonas, hit hard by Covid19, the number of deaths in the last days was 108% above the average of the last 4 years in the same period. Of that 108%, 19% was reported as Covid19 and 89% not. Almost certainly we have underreported heavy, like for each 5 Covid19 deaths only 1 was reported.
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This is happening all around the US, endless heartbreaking stories where it emerges people who attempted to get medical care were sent home and them dying at home shortly afterward.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html)
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Doesn't surprise me. Medical care is absolutely shitty even here in UK. And honestly the "clap for the carers" shit is doing my head in after various near misses over the years.
They actually sent my father-in-law home twice with pneumonia. His youngest daughter drove him to the hospital the third time after his kidneys gave out and he died in hospital covid positive. SPO2 was down at 55% when they admitted him 3rd time. I imagine a shit load of people didn't get a second or third go at hospital care either because either they couldn't or didn't feel like they'd be treated seriously. :-- :-- :--
I reckon they're going to be finding more isolated dead people still in a couple of years after this has passed.
Edit: just to allay any fears he was diabetic, in his 70s, had major heart problems, smoked like a chimney and had run out of lives several times over already.
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That's the inherent problem with restrictions. When they work, it creates the impression that they were not needed. People don't think about the fact that it's because of the restrictions that there is not a high infection rate.
Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)
No one knows. It might also be due to less pollution, making people less susceptible to the disease.
Yes public awareness will help to prevent a second wave, even when governments ease restrictions, but my fear is people will become complacent. I don't know about Australia, but I think it will be awhile before we can safely reopen more risky areas of the economy such as hairdressers, nightclubs, pubs and restaurants.
In Melbourne the "shutdown" restrictions haven't been eased but measures of mobility (vehicle,bicycle,pedestrian counters, map service requests etc) have been slowly trending upward. There is noticeable complacency on the basic measures, and anecdotal examples such as people standing in groups at the shops to have a social chat.
How much impact would a request to improve hygiene have been without the simultaneous shutdowns/restrictions. Just asking people to wash their hands and be more careful would likely be a small impact, and have low uptake/compliance.
Trying to simplify the solution as improved hygiene is nonsense, the only strategies seriously considered include isolation/quarantine of suspected and known cases, and then consider social distancing and other measures on top of that.
"Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand"
https://dsprdpub.cc.ic.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482 (https://dsprdpub.cc.ic.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482)
"Impact of COVID-19 in Australia – ensuring the health system can respond"
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/impact-of-covid-19-in-australia-ensuring-the-health-system-can-respond (https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/impact-of-covid-19-in-australia-ensuring-the-health-system-can-respond)
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The NHS(x) source code is out and there is of course controversy.
https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues/16
Due to how BLE works on Android the phone asks for location permissions for the app. Granting this permission allows location tracking by BLE using beacons with predetermined locations, but also allows GPS access, although the app does not directly access the GPS. If I am reading things correctly. However it does have remote pathways or JS injection that can reveal your precise device location.
I also note they do not publish the code for the central contact matching server.
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BTW the NHSX source code is likely not what appears in the app exactly. They suggest it’s pushed to their own internal branch first. On top of that the guy who runs NHSX is a former Israel diplomat with links to military intelligence companies (NICE Ltd). Nope from me.
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Although poor, I want to believe that data is above the noise floor.
It's more likely the figures just reflect what your government want you to believe.
We had an issue in the UK with COVID-19 mortality data, which previously only included deaths in hospitals, not in care homes and the community. What gave the game away was that the total number of deaths was higher, than average for the same point in the year. If your government doesn't properly record deaths, then there may be other sources of more reliable information such as the records of local undertakers.
That is true. In the Netherlands there are also more people dying compared to long term averages. This data is collected by the government statistics bureau.
In the Brazilian state Manaus, hit hard by Covid19, the number of deaths in the last days was 108% above the average of the last 4 years in the same period. Of that 108%, 19% was reported as Covid19 and 89% not. Almost certainly we have underreported heavy, like for each 5 Covid19 deaths only 1 was reported.
Those figures are more likely.
This is happening all around the US, endless heartbreaking stories where it emerges people who attempted to get medical care were sent home and them dying at home shortly afterward.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/us/coronavirus-florida-medical-examiner-records.html)
That's also true, but there will be fewer deaths on the road, so it's not that simple.
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Although poor, I want to believe that data is above the noise floor.
It's more likely the figures just reflect what your government want you to believe.
I was referring to the global data available, used to compares Australia and Brazil numbers, where Australia controlled the transmissions and Brazil not, after a very similar starting.
No my government specific.
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Although poor, I want to believe that data is above the noise floor.
It's more likely the figures just reflect what your government want you to believe.
I was referring to the global data available, used to compares Australia and Brazil numbers, where Australia controlled the transmissions and Brazil not, after a very similar starting.
No my government specific.
The numbers on those graphs are provided by the countries' respective governments.
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Although poor, I want to believe that data is above the noise floor.
It's more likely the figures just reflect what your government want you to believe.
I was referring to the global data available, used to compares Australia and Brazil numbers, where Australia controlled the transmissions and Brazil not, after a very similar starting.
No my government specific.
The numbers on those graphs are provided by the countries' respective governments.
Exactly. And they come from nurses and local doctors, to the cities health administration, then to all states/provinces, and are consolidated by federal government. It's similar in all countries.
If all that data is being manipulated, that are too much people involved. At least in democratic countries where the people have access to hospitals data, cities data and states/provinces data to check the consolidated federal data. One of those that is doing a great job in scrutinize that data is the press, as well as universities, research groups, etc.
I believe more in incompetence to deal with such pandemia, all around the world, as almost none country were prepared to deal with it. Included in this incompetence are inadequate informatics systems, not centralized data systems, fewer test kits than necessary, untrained staff, and so on.
And specifically in Brazil, what the government wants that the population believes is exactly the opposite of the picture shown by the available data.
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"Never attribute to malice..."
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"Never attribute to malice..."
The usual missing half of that line is "that which can be explained by incompetence". However, in the case of statistics gathering its really about laziness. Its really hard to gather good, solid, meaningful information and its not usually a core activity for those gathering it. So, they just get lazy.
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That's the inherent problem with restrictions. When they work, it creates the impression that they were not needed. People don't think about the fact that it's because of the restrictions that there is not a high infection rate.
Sure, but how much? How much is due to the lockdown, and how much was simple hygiene, awareness, and staying home when you are sick?
It would be be incredibly foolish (indeed, demonstrably wrong) to say there is no contribution from the later things.
It's easy and logical to assume that the lock down is the thing that did all the wonders, but where is the direct A/B comparison data to actually prove it? (and no, don't compare different countries)
No one knows. It might also be due to less pollution, making people less susceptible to the disease.
Yes public awareness will help to prevent a second wave, even when governments ease restrictions, but my fear is people will become complacent. I don't know about Australia, but I think it will be awhile before we can safely reopen more risky areas of the economy such as hairdressers, nightclubs, pubs and restaurants.
In Melbourne the "shutdown" restrictions haven't been eased but measures of mobility (vehicle,bicycle,pedestrian counters, map service requests etc) have been slowly trending upward. There is noticeable complacency on the basic measures, and anecdotal examples such as people standing in groups at the shops to have a social chat.
How much impact would a request to improve hygiene have been without the simultaneous shutdowns/restrictions. Just asking people to wash their hands and be more careful would likely be a small impact, and have low uptake/compliance.
Trying to simplify the solution as improved hygiene is nonsense, the only strategies seriously considered include isolation/quarantine of suspected and known cases, and then consider social distancing and other measures on top of that.
"Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand"
https://dsprdpub.cc.ic.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482 (https://dsprdpub.cc.ic.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/77482)
"Impact of COVID-19 in Australia – ensuring the health system can respond"
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/impact-of-covid-19-in-australia-ensuring-the-health-system-can-respond (https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/impact-of-covid-19-in-australia-ensuring-the-health-system-can-respond)
I think a similar thing has happened in the UK, perhaps to a lesser extent, but I think the government should wait and see what happens, before changing anything.
We mustn't forget the obvious: if R > 1 then exponential growth, if R < 1 then linear decay. It's very important not to lose sight of the fact that it's easy to slip and let cases run into the thousands per day, but very difficult to claw back to levels the health system can cope with.
Although poor, I want to believe that data is above the noise floor.
It's more likely the figures just reflect what your government want you to believe.
I was referring to the global data available, used to compares Australia and Brazil numbers, where Australia controlled the transmissions and Brazil not, after a very similar starting.
No my government specific.
The numbers on those graphs are provided by the countries' respective governments.
Exactly. And they come from nurses and local doctors, to the cities health administration, then to all states/provinces, and are consolidated by federal government. It's similar in all countries.
If all that data is being manipulated, that are too much people involved. At least in democratic countries where the people have access to hospitals data, cities data and states/provinces data to check the consolidated federal data. One of those that is doing a great job in scrutinize that data is the press, as well as universities, research groups, etc.
I believe more in incompetence to deal with such pandemia, all around the world, as almost none country were prepared to deal with it. Included in this incompetence are inadequate informatics systems, not centralized data systems, fewer test kits than necessary, untrained staff, and so on.
And specifically in Brazil, what the government wants that the population believes is exactly the opposite of the picture shown by the available data.
I agree with all of that.
I'm not saying the government is directly manipulating the figures, but it's possible it's by indirect means such as: lack of testing, only recording deaths in hospital and of those who have actually tested positive, rather than on clinical signs and symptoms etc. which will all give lower figures than the real ones the government really don't want people to know about. Because testing and recording methods differ considerably between countries, it's impossible to make meaningful comparisons.
The NHS(x) source code is out and there is of course controversy.
https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues/16 (https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues/16)
Due to how BLE works on Android the phone asks for location permissions for the app. Granting this permission allows location tracking by BLE using beacons with predetermined locations, but also allows GPS access, although the app does not directly access the GPS. If I am reading things correctly. However it does have remote pathways or JS injection that can reveal your precise device location.
I also note they do not publish the code for the central contact matching server.
People are understandably anxious about gathering data and tracking, but it's the only viable method of controlling it at this point, compared to strict blanket measures restricting people's freedoms. There's no way it will be made compulsory, but I hope enough people will use it for it to be effective.
Will it work without being continuously connected to the Internet? I hope so. I'd like to use it, but my phone is only ever connected to my own Wi-Fi. I don't' bother with a data package, because I'll hardly ever use it.
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This situation demands a huge global collaboration to fix this problem - nothing less. This risk may remain forever if we dont rise to the challenge now, cutting huge numbers of peoples lives short.
Here in the US (and in a great many other countries) this epidemic is only beginning in most of the country. There is no large scale testing program in place as there should be. There is no certainty that even if we develop a vaccine that it will work, it may be impossible to eradicate it totally from peoples bodies or - more likely, there will need to be new things learned before we are successful, like happened with HIV, so that the illness cannot remain in the body indefinitely like some other viruses do.
The thing we do need to understand is, we can't go back to living as we did in the recent past right now if we want to be successful. Thats basically giving up, and consigning large numbers of poor people to death, unless we change a great many things, ramp up our health care response. change the way we do a lot of things on a fundamental level.
This starts with the economics. Profiteering off this illness is not okay. What about vaccine cost? We need to vaccine 7.5 billion people in order to eradicate COVID-19. They also should figure out ways to test everybody, rapidly.
The whole idea that they could award some kind of testing certificate to some people and deem them able to be certified as free of COVID-19 is lacking any scientific basis because we are not certain that illness conveys permanent immunity, that it cant come back, as far as I know the science behind that assumption is unclear. Also, this illness in its current state often leaves people with permanent health issues. (Because in a subset of cases, it invades the brain.)
Also the newer "G614" (which has a glycine at position 614) variant, is claimed to have a higher case fatality rate (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32374903).
We need a better approach, one that doesn't run into this issue of the virus making some tiny change and getting more virulent.
All that said, I think we, the human race could do this, but not without some deep realizations that its not going to happen as long as people think its just going to go away on its own like some irresponsible, inexplicably important people are claiming.
We're way past that stage where it could or would. Its not helpful to pretend its business as usual as some are doing.
Especially, they shouldn't send people into employment situations (crowded workplaces and factories) that put people into danger. Also, people should be able to wear whatever PPE they want in any work situation. Especially the underinsured and uninsured.
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Although poor, I want to believe that data is above the noise floor.
It's more likely the figures just reflect what your government want you to believe.
I was referring to the global data available, used to compares Australia and Brazil numbers, where Australia controlled the transmissions and Brazil not, after a very similar starting.
No my government specific.
The numbers on those graphs are provided by the countries' respective governments.
Exactly. And they come from nurses and local doctors, to the cities health administration, then to all states/provinces, and are consolidated by federal government. It's similar in all countries.
If all that data is being manipulated, that are too much people involved. At least in democratic countries where the people have access to hospitals data, cities data and states/provinces data to check the consolidated federal data. One of those that is doing a great job in scrutinize that data is the press, as well as universities, research groups, etc.
I believe more in incompetence to deal with such pandemia, all around the world, as almost none country were prepared to deal with it. Included in this incompetence are inadequate informatics systems, not centralized data systems, fewer test kits than necessary, untrained staff, and so on.
And specifically in Brazil, what the government wants that the population believes is exactly the opposite of the picture shown by the available data.
I agree with all of that.
I'm not saying the government is directly manipulating the figures, but it's possible it's by indirect means such as: lack of testing, only recording deaths in hospital and of those who have actually tested positive, rather than on clinical signs and symptoms etc. which will all give lower figures than the real ones the government really don't want people to know about. Because testing and recording methods differ considerably between countries, it's impossible to make meaningful comparisons.
Not meaningful in absolute numbers, but the trend can be observed.
For example in the graph below, where we can see the consequences of the brazillian relaxing isolating measurements while Australia, with a similar scenario, remained adherent to the isolation. Now Australian can afford slowly relaxing and Brazil must go to lockdown:
[attachimg=1]
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A lot, perhaps most businesses are based on activities which I suspect may not be popular in a post COVID-19 environment. Like anything that puts people together in large numbers, especially indoors, or many kinds of purchasing that I think people not knowing how their economic prospects are, seem unlikely to pursue.
But who knows, people also desperately crave human contact. What do I know?
I suspect that the risk when you are outdoors is likely to be much lower than indoors, especially if it is sunny and bright, unless you are literally right next to people or touch them.
Also, in some countries families all live together three generations under one roof. That would seem to be a dangerous situation for viral infection because kids are efficient spreaders of this virus it seems, even though they rarely show symptoms. When school is in session they pick it up at school and bring it home. The same applies to large workspaces. All schools and large workplaces should install UVC lamps and at night, or when they are closed, they could flood the area with UVC to disinfect it.
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So is this the end of the world yet?
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The NHS(x) source code is out and there is of course controversy.
...ETC...
Just taken a look at that dump of code today. The NHSX developers are responding to the issues that the app enables the full android location class and, the private key is generated by the external server and not the user device as, it's done this way by design. And they took the lifeboats off the Titanic, by design.
The UK goverment rejected the Google api because it did not provide them with a centralised dataset that could be shared for the "public interest."
Google knows the user has installed the app, along with a ton of other Google Play info. Which makes complete privacy from third parties a moot point. One poster on Github suggested the app has another privacy policy to cover the play store privacy policy.
I noted a reference to "com.microsoft.appcenter.analytics.Analytics". This is MS App Center Analytics for understanding user and app interaction. Likely just some innocent development fluff.
Difficulty is the NHSX app is trying to work in a way that all other apps in the play store do not. Not recording as much about your activity as possible. Welcome to the world of public sector I.T.
Still wondering what this line if code does, must be something to do with social distancing?
private fun configureBouncyCastleProvider() {
// Remove existing built in Bouncy Castle
:) bouncy
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For those playing at home...
BBC News Online
Coronavirus doctor's diary: The strange case of the choir that coughed in January
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449)
It wouldn't be surprising if this has been around for much longer, than currently accepted. The trouble is, many of the symptoms are similar to other viruses, so without an antibody test, there's no way of knowing for sure.
Another worrying thing is there's an increased risk of death in ethnic minorities, especially in black people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52602467 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52602467)
It's really frustrating the media seem to be jumping to the immediate conclusion that social and economic factors are the reason for this, rather than something biological. It's widely accepted men are more likely to die from COVID-19, than women, given equal risk factors such as age and co-morbidities and this is likely to be genetic, so why is it unacceptable to consider this might be possible for other ethic groups?
I think vitamin D deficiency could be a significant factor. People with darker skin make vitamin D less efficiently than those with light skin and vitamin D is important for proper function of the immune system. Vitamin supplements are cheap and giving them free to non-whites would no doubt save lives.
Going back on topic. Employers should focus more on protecting those more at risk from COVID-19, than those in lower risk groups. Older, non-white men should be given priority for working from home, or in roles which don't require mixing with others, over those in lower risk groups, such as younger white women. Supermarkets should try to move as many of their higher risk employees to non-customer facing roles, such as working in the warehouse, rather than at a checkout. So what if that means customers notice more younger, white female staff on the shop floor and checkouts, than older black men? It will save lives. I'm all for giving people equal opportunities, but this virus doesn't give everyone the same opportunity for life! Fuck political correctness - it's now costing lives!
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The Challenges of Phased Re-Opening.
In many places, this is going to be treacherous.
Take the state of Georgia, in the US:
[attachimg=1]
The majority of the state has a low incidence rate but the largest cities show a different situation. Let's say bars and restaurants in the low-incidence counties open up, but not in the high-incident areas. Where are folks in the hard hit areas going to go?
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The Challenges of Phased Re-Opening.
It gets more challenging when you considered neighboring states in the US.
Here is a county map for Maryland:
[attachimg=3]
And here is the southern neighbor, Virginia.
[attachimg=1]
Those high-incidence areas in the N-NE border Maryland with the territory of Washington DC between the two.
How can just one county open up? How can just one of these states open up?
Here I have plotted the new daily cases for all three combined.
[attachimg=2]
Taken together, there is no way one can rationally argue that there is a decline in incidence, even though some counties in Maryland or Virginia are low incidence.
So, the situation is, indeed, complicated. Folks in local Governments look at the data too and, at least sometimes, publicly communicate that even if the state opens up, the county can't - https://wtop.com/montgomery-county/2020/05/we-have-a-caseload-which-is-still-growing-montgomery-co-may-not-follow-marylands-phase-1-reopening/
I expect to see situations like in South Korea, where some segment is opened up and then quickly closed as incidents rise.
Of course, that takes testing and a lot of testing.
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The Challenges of Phased Re-Opening.
Even low-incidence countries that are relatively "isolated" have the same challenge...one territory has many times the number of cases than another.
[attachimg=1]
I'm hoping that with accurate and shared data and a whole lot of testing, that we can learn from all the different areas world-wide. I worry that go-and-stop restrictions will be very difficult to adjust to, but I don't see how they are avoidable.
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I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.
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I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.
I believe you when you say that you don't understand the points of the maps and graphs.
Have you not read the PLANS that States and local Governments use and the FEDERAL guidelines for opening up? Do you not understand that the US is not going to have a ribbon cutting for Opening Back Up Day (despite the head clown's Easter fantasy). Do you understand the concept of PHASED reopening? If you did, then you understand that the point of all those many maps and graphs that made your head hurt is to illustrate the difficulty of the challenge.
I also believe that you think "That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything". Did you not understand the concept of overwhelming health care resources and to avoid that situation (which has been experienced already in the US and is not simply a model prediction) might very well involve re-restricting "strategically"
We are coming from very different perspectives and the distance between them means to me that I can't discuss the issue with you. I am saying so, because it represents a personal change where I simply don't have the patience to "discuss" certain topics with certain people. You are entitled to your opinion and so am I.
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I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.
I agree. In the UK and Europe we have some very highly populated areas. It's these regions where most people live, work, commute and are economically productive. Covid-19 infections and deaths are a function of population density. It's hard to sell the lockdown to Aussies who live in a country the size of Europe with a population half that of England. It is also hard to un-sell the lockdown to Londoners who live in an area similar to Gran Canaria with a population twice that of New Zealand. For high density population zones, reinfection is inevitable.
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I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.
I agree. /--/ For high density population zones, reinfection is inevitable.
How much is inevitable? What is the proportion of possible reinfection that is inevitable - all of it? Be specific - everybody knows that SOME additional infections will occur (I don't even know what you mean by 'reinfection' because that literally means an individual who had been infected became infected again), but how much? Seriously, please answer the question. You sound like a representative of the "The Herd Immunity Crowd-Think".
C'mon man, we should be able to do better than that.
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I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.
I agree. In the UK and Europe we have some very highly populated areas. It's these regions where most people live, work, commute and are economically productive. Covid-19 infections and deaths are a function of population density. It's hard to sell the lockdown to Aussies who live in a country the size of Europe with a population half that of England. It is also hard to un-sell the lockdown to Londoners who live in an area similar to Gran Canaria with a population twice that of New Zealand. For high density population zones, reinfection is inevitable.
If this where true then the virus would have stayed in China. In reality virusses spread by people getting in close contact with eachother. Population density only matters to the point of the number of people potentially having close contacts.
Take the population density (on the left) versus the Covid-19 infection rates (on the right) in the Netherlands for example:
[attachimg=1 width=300] [attachimg=2 width=300]
There is no clear relation between infections and density. There is some background information which explains the Covid-19 concentrations though. From the south-west to the north-east there is an area we call the 'Bible-belt' where a more than average number of people go to the church. In the south-east part there is an annual spring carnaval involving many indoor festivities which takes place in -you guessed it- Februari. This region extends into Germany which also has a high concentration of Covid-19 infections.
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An important variable is global connectivity. Cities that are international are at a greater risk than those where everyone stays inside the citidel.
Another variable is sociability. Football matches and festivals are the popularist culprits in the spread of Covid-19. Social distancing only works if a society can go without clubbing.
Maybe another variable is the 'mix density'? That's how close people have to be to get from A to B. If everyone travels alone by car the mix density is 0. If everyone travels by bus, the mix density is 1.
These would all be multipliers in a complex model.
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There are thousands of coronaviruses and other viruses in bats and other animals so we can expect new ones every couple of years. Thats a sobering thought.
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No need to inflate this out of proportion either. The common cold is also due to a coronavirus. Coronaviruses are actually very common.
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Rhinoviruses and coronaviruses. But youre right, many are coronaviruses and those coronaviruses rarely become life thretening except in the severaly iummunocompromised, or very young people. Its only SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) that are.
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Well, they were planning on a massive world-wide downsizing anyway, before the epidemic. Its part of the WTO. They had been negotiating the terms off and on since the 80s. "Services" basically 80% of the economy. So its going to be huge. Right now its claimed they are throwing away trillions of dollars in wages that are too high.
This is the real reason they can't/wont fix anything.
I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.
I agree. /--/ For high density population zones, reinfection is inevitable.
How much is inevitable? What is the proportion of possible reinfection that is inevitable - all of it? Be specific - everybody knows that SOME additional infections will occur (I don't even know what you mean by 'reinfection' because that literally means an individual who had been infected became infected again), but how much? Seriously, please answer the question. You sound like a representative of the "The Herd Immunity Crowd-Think".
C'mon man, we should be able to do better than that.
Actually, there is no certainty that people who have been infected wont get infected again. Its not certain because a lot of people who tested okay got reinfected or reactivated, so they simply dont know. It may end up being like some other viruses where the virus reactivates. At least that is what I have read recently. Recent events in Wuhan might be helpful in figuring that out. But, who can you trust. Governments are likely to spin news to support going back to the way it was before irregardless of what the science says they should do. Because they are being pressured by investors to reopen their factories. Its all about foreign investment, here too. They spend billions on a factory, they definitely dont want to leave it stting idle.
They will bring in people from other countries to do those jobs that the expensive Americans quit...
Which is what they were planning to do anyway. Since 1986. Thats a long time.
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Rhinoviruses and coronaviruses. But youre right, many are coronaviruses and those coronaviruses rarely become life thretening except in the severaly iummunocompromised, or very young people. Its only SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) that are.
I wonder what will be invented first: a useable nuclear fusion reactor or a universal flu vaccine. I put my money on the first. And even if a universal flu vaccine gets invented there will be another disease which causes a pandemic. It is a sobering thought that your body is continously battling with virusses and bacteria that try to kill it.
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a lot of people who tested okay got reinfected or reactivated
The hypothesis is that those people were merely still coughing up original debris from their lungs, which would trigger a positive test even though they weren't reinfected (nor still infected).
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Most of the places planning to reduce restrictions are doing so fully planning to reintroduce restrictions if the spread starts heading towards overwhelming the healthcare system. Restrictions will likely come and go periodically for some time to come, as finding the balancing point where healthcare demand matches supply is very difficult (non-deterministic system, long lag time, etc).
For countries with more control that will likely include localised interventions/restrictions with better granularity.
The larger picture is countries/regions considering different values on human life.
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I don't understand the point of the maps and graphs. The more people in a place, the more people that have the disease. You talk about "reopening" as if counties and states have an on or off button. People going back to work physically will cause a rise in the number of people with the disease, obviously. That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything.
I believe you when you say that you don't understand the points of the maps and graphs.
Have you not read the PLANS that States and local Governments use and the FEDERAL guidelines for opening up? Do you not understand that the US is not going to have a ribbon cutting for Opening Back Up Day (despite the head clown's Easter fantasy). Do you understand the concept of PHASED reopening? If you did, then you understand that the point of all those many maps and graphs that made your head hurt is to illustrate the difficulty of the challenge.
I also believe that you think "That doesn't mean re-restricting "strategically" will help anything". Did you not understand the concept of overwhelming health care resources and to avoid that situation (which has been experienced already in the US and is not simply a model prediction) might very well involve re-restricting "strategically"
We are coming from very different perspectives and the distance between them means to me that I can't discuss the issue with you. I am saying so, because it represents a personal change where I simply don't have the patience to "discuss" certain topics with certain people. You are entitled to your opinion and so am I.
Why do I feel like this strategic re-restricting is just "send everyone back to work, if the hospitals fill up, send them home again" :-//
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It is a sobering thought that your body is continously battling with virusses and bacteria that try to kill it.
I think pandemics like this put us firmly in our place. I say it's enough of this "Earth was created for man" BS spun by religions. Man is but part of nature, not the other way around.
The romanticising of nature is something only those in rich cultures with good health care can afford. Those that are protected from most of the wrath and brutality of nature celebrate it and seek "natural" this and that. Those who are not protected from it would take your synthetic this or that at the drop of a hat.
Most of the world is currently being dipped into the bath of the later. Realising that we are just part of nature and nature is a right fucking bitch most of the time. It's time to get off our high horses and realise this, rather than staying firmly up our own arses.
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Well, as forecasted many weeks ago, we are all still here and in good health, and it seems many none the wiser
some or many? of us not fortunate to have a cushy 'Working From Home' gig,
now have one foot in the poor house along with local battlers
and businesses who have tossed in the towel and shut shop,
with the no rent/debt riddled landlords and suppliers getting screwed on the deal too
But that's oh so boring and repetitive, right? Agreed! :-+
So without further ado, it's giggle time to ease the disappointment and frustration
Please note either or both Youtube videos are STRICTLY for Sir Tom Jones fans and admirers :clap:
with a sense of humor and open mind
youtube.com/watch?v=IwOtWmmKZlU
youtube.com/watch?v=18ex_0yMFhw
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Only one new case in our state yesterday, and that was someone who returned form the UK. And I believe the majority of our daily cases country wide have now been coming from one source in Victoria. And remember, this is a still with hundreds of thousands of people not locked down still out and about doing essential work. Pretty amazing.
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I think pandemics like this put us firmly in our place. I say it's enough of this "Earth was created for man" BS spun by religions. Man is but part of nature, not the other way around.
No. No. The Earth was created for man, but by a God who is a real scumbag.
Seriously the issue of suffering in religious doctrine amuses me. Ancient religions used to have an answer - humans live at the mercy of a bunch of scumbag Gods. Modern religions are so wedded to the idea that God must be nice they just leave the issue suffering hanging.
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Looking at what disheveled information the UK government are willing to release in a confusing mishmosh of UK data and England only data you can see a linear decline in cases in england that will hit bottom in just over a week:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=utlas&map=rate
But there is a lot of confusion here with mixed messages. Stay at home has been replaced with stay alert but we are to stay home for 3 weeks more. Apparently people are now encouraged to return to work if they can't work from home but then they never told people not to go to work only to work from home if posible.
If the UK government tried to put their statements into a program they would get as many unexpected results and compile errors as the public is confused.
Oh yea tips can open but only rubbish that is unsafe to keep at home should be taken. But you can't take harmful waste to a tip without a commercial licence. It's a complete mess.
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Seriously the issue of suffering in religious doctrine amuses me. Ancient religions used to have an answer - humans live at the mercy of a bunch of scumbag Gods. Modern religions are so wedded to the idea that God must be nice they just leave the issue suffering hanging.
Well, seems true that ancient, non-monotheist religions tended (there are still some on Earth currently) to put the harshness of "nature" in the center of daily life - with various cults, but still imaging how harsh our environment was, and making man live with that.
Monotheist religions OTOH seem to have introduced a completely different approach, in which "nature" is not inherently harsh anymore per se. When it turns "against" man, it becomes because man did something "wrong". And so yes, man progressively lost the notion that our environment was inherently harsh, and acquired the notion of actually feeling guilty if nature suddenly seemed to be against us.
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but then they never told people not to go to work only to work from home if posible
So what was the furlough business all about? I can't imagine they would pay half the workforce to stay off work if it was just 'work from home if possible'.
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but then they never told people not to go to work only to work from home if posible
So what was the furlough business all about? I can't imagine they would pay half the workforce to stay off work if it was just 'work from home if possible'.
No, people who can work from home do so. Those tat do manufacturing or work that cannot be done at home go to work where they should have adaptions to keep people apart.
But if an employer is loosing business and has no work for you they can put you on hold. The government in this case will pay 80% of your pay so you still have a job but your employer is not having to pay you but you are not left without money or made redundant.
21 where I work are furloughed.
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but then they never told people not to go to work only to work from home if posible
So what was the furlough business all about? I can't imagine they would pay half the workforce to stay off work if it was just 'work from home if possible'.
No, people who can work from home do so. Those tat do manufacturing or work that cannot be done at home go to work where they should have adaptions to keep people apart.
But if an employer is loosing business and has no work for you they can put you on hold. The government in this case will pay 80% of your pay so you still have a job but your employer is not having to pay you but you are not left without money or made redundant.
Same thing basically over here. The number of people who have been put on hold is pretty large.
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We all live in just in time economies, as soon as one cog pair has a wedge thrown in the whole mechanism grinds to a halt which is why they had to just draw a universal line under it for everyone.
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Vox had an interesting video on the idea here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaraFkhonFo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaraFkhonFo)
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In the US at least, it doesn't seem like the government actually did anything to force businesses to lay off workers- people stopping buying their products due to fears of the virus, so when they laid off workers due to lost money, they said it was to "protect our workers from the virus." It seems like all the government did was incite more panic than anything.
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They forced businesses to close, that stops the income and forces them to lay people off. It's hugely expensive to keep idled employees around, you've still got to pay their health insurance and other benefits.
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Where as in the UK they have tried at least to pay 80% of the salaries of workers who can't work and their company want's to "furlough" them. As an aside I wonder if "furloughing" comes from farming where you plough the crop back into the field.
The theory is, it tries to put the economy on "Pause", rather than shut it down. At great cost they are effectively saying "Sleep" or "Suspend" in Windows, rather than shutting it down. They hope they can just poke it and it will fire back up.
I pay health insurance in the UK. My work provides a group policy with Bupa. It's about £120 a month and is taxable. Basically I visit my normal NHS GP and if a condition is identified I can ask for a "referral" which allows me to transfer to private care.
Sometimes the private care is in the same hospitals and only the food is different, but it gets your much faster access to specialist consultants.
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A huge downsizing and then outsourcing/offshoring of jobs now has been planned for a very long time to occur now. It has nothing to do with coronavirus.
Way back in 1986 (September 15-20, 1986) in Punta Del Este, Uruguay, what was then the GATT met and among the things they agreed upon was that they decided to outsource lots of jobs -they started the process to make services "tradable" which became the Uruguay Round and led to the creation of the WTO.
The service jobs which are framed as a "balancing factor" which means they give the countries leverage over one another they would not otherwise have. Oftentimes the leverage involves things that never see the light of day, like drug pricing or similar things not in the public interest.
This is why everything is being gradually privatized and globalized. To put those services into play. (Its refered to as a big game, with reports describing the state of play, etc.)
A vast deal between North and South that both props up the lower wage countries and helps the Northern countries be more profitable by allowing them to reduce wages, and shed jobs, which they frame as "efficiency gains". This is basically the economics of all trade in services deals and its promoted as if its carved in stone and the result of a democratic process, although its not as shown by the fact that actual people dont even know about it. We operate on assumptions of our leaderships having abilities to fix things which have not been true since the late 80s or early 90s. They deliberately put large swatches of policy space out of their own reach, putting them in the hands of the WTO and other global governance organizations. (which they control, however, in certain areas what they clearly want is an agenda thats very bad for most people, but great for the biggest corporations.)
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They forced businesses to close, that stops the income and forces them to lay people off. It's hugely expensive to keep idled employees around, you've still got to pay their health insurance and other benefits.
These businesses (the big ones, anyway) don't seem to make it clear whether or not they are furloughing for monetary or government restriction reasons, but at this point it's a chicken or the egg problem anyway, as the economy is actually crap now. However, I did find that several governors are ordering small businesses to close, which seems odd to me as they just kissed their re-election goodbye.
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I think pandemics like this put us firmly in our place. I say it's enough of this "Earth was created for man" BS spun by religions. Man is but part of nature, not the other way around.
No. No. The Earth was created for man, but by a God who is a real scumbag.
Don't pamper to their mass insanity with any grandeur or acceptance. I don't think the concept that the universe was created for "Man" has the slightest bearing of truth, asides pure philosophy of consciousness.
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the problem is that people only care for themselves so have to be told what to do for society and people only elect people that will benefit them personally in a direct way rather than indirectly by providing a better society to live in.
The British PM talks about "good old british common sense" the mere concept is a joke. He has done nothing but mince his words so that other get blamed for reality and his mistakes.
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Yea OK cdev, remember what the topic is about. I know this is your "thing" but it will overwhelm the topic as it has in the past.
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Around here (NE US) they actually did close most large businesses down. Many businesses are still closed.
And make no mistake about it, it is a genuine emergency around here, with lots and lots of people getting very sick and dying.
I personally would like to see less analysis of who is to blame and more activity to prevent people getting sick and ideally, cure them, in a way they can afford.
In the US at least, it doesn't seem like the government actually did anything to force businesses to lay off workers- people stopping buying their products due to fears of the virus, so when they laid off workers due to lost money, they said it was to "protect our workers from the virus." It seems like all the government did was incite more panic than anything.
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the problem is that people only care for themselves so have to be told what to do for society and people only elect people that will benefit them personally in a direct way rather than indirectly by providing a better society to live in.
The British PM talks about "good old british common sense" the mere concept is a joke. He has done nothing but mince his words so that other get blamed for reality and his mistakes.
Maybe if he used a hair comb in the morning, people would take him seriously.
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I've had to clean up recent posts this thread. Please stay on topic.
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Post Impacts Of Corona Virus:
When this blows over or downgraded till the next wave,
are there any laws or regulations, in any countries with a few grams of integrity left,
that will prosecute profiteers that milked the situation,
as well as clamping down on all the exaggerated and or unsupported reporting and comment by news media, politicians, medical authorities etc
after giving them a fair go to prove beyond any doubt they had solid data to support what was going on,
rather than just rolling with what was and still is going on.
i.e. loads of networking and cash for comment parroting on this deal, why should they be allowed to do a runner with pockets full,
holding cushy well paid positions during the entire ordeal,
while the rest of us are left to man up and 'join together to rebuild'
or what they really mean is, to put it bluntly, 'do it tough and stfu'
The lot of them need to be rounded up so that this never happens again, or on such a grand scale,
and that includes the idiots that started the entire fiasco playing with test tubes,
apparently containing bat droppings that somehow got into some downstairs party finger food..? :o or some variation on the 'story'
Please... :palm:
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The British PM talks about "good old british common sense" the mere concept is a joke.
At risk of Dave treating this as expendable, despite it going to be about returning to work (and when he allows the off-topic rabid trolling from ED)...
I think Boris is trying to play a straight bat. Sure, people want rock solid rules to follow, but the situation doesn't really allow that. The plan would be to get people back to work to save the economy, but at the same time not making things worse at a health level, and I don't think you can be very precise about that.
Suppose he says, Right, from Monday the cafes can open. We know what would happen - come Monday 00:01 they will be chokka with people who will risk getting infected because they can then blame Boris for opening up too soon. The kind of questions he was asked demonstrated that mindset. If you're talking to your mate from 2m away in the park and you both see another mate, can you talk to him to? The obvious answer is to use your common sense. Why do you think you are standing 2m away, and how is another mate 2m away going to be different from a shopping queue? That shouldn't be a problem, but obviously a bunch of you going to the park for a conflab would be.
I think we either accept that given some basic guidelines we use our commonsense to fill in the gaps as they turn up, or we require micro-managing. The first option means we can go out sunbathing so long as we keep our distance. The second means they can't risk letting us do that (give us an inch and we want all eight) so it's 1 hour of exercise within half a mile, once a day, etc.
Now translate that to the business thing where we're not talking about a single thing like being out in a park, but there are many different types of business with different requirements. A couple of brickies working outside next to each other probably isn't as bad as two office types sitting 10 feet apart in a closed-windowed office, but try to explain that on the TV news and imagine the headlines the next day. And the silly questions.
At some point we have to get back to business and it is going to require some commonsense to make it work. I think it's reasonable at this point to more or less say, well, we are doing good enough to think about getting back to (the new) normal so let's give it a try, but be prepared to back off some if it starts going titsup. And by being less precise about what, who, where, when we get a gradual drift instead of massed ranks.
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Pretty decent information about risk of infection. Particularly relevant in these "opening up" times. Written by an immunologist. With references. A 12 min read and no video. From 5 days ago (but updated since). Worthwhile in my view.
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR0 (https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR0)
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These businesses (the big ones, anyway) don't seem to make it clear whether or not they are furloughing for monetary or government restriction reasons, but at this point it's a chicken or the egg problem anyway, as the economy is actually crap now. However, I did find that several governors are ordering small businesses to close, which seems odd to me as they just kissed their re-election goodbye.
I'm not so sure about that. I don't want to see businesses forced to close without good reason but it is important to try to slow the spread. Here in the Seattle area they've succeeded in dramatically flattening the curve and while I was not exactly a fan of our governor in the first place I think he has done a reasonably good job and his approval rating on handling the pandemic was around 85% last I read. In this area which is a hotspot of education and wealth people overwhelmingly support the efforts that have been taken, there is quite clear evidence that it has worked.
My hope is just that the numbers don't spike back up because we really do need to get things opened back up. It's frustrating to think that a complete coordinated lockdown for just a few weeks could have stopped the spread.
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My hope is just that the numbers don't spike back up because we really do need to get things opened back up. It's frustrating to think that a complete coordinated lockdown for just a few weeks could have stopped the spread.
But even in full lock down you still have something like 40% of the workforce still out there and deployed in essential services.
When you are locked down at home it seems like everyone else is locked down too, but they aren't.
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The lot of them need to be rounded up so that this never happens again
LOL. Not going to happen, humans will continue to do selfish/stupid/*insert whatever term you want* human things.
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But even in full lock down you still have something like 40% of the workforce still out there and deployed in essential services.
When you are locked down at home it seems like everyone else is locked down too, but they aren't.
Well it was more hypothetical than realistic, although I'm sure they could have locked down a lot more people than they did and with the benefit of hindsight it would have been much better than dragging it out.
While politically constitutionally difficult in the US, we could have closed borders of states, counties or some arbitrary divisions early on to isolate it to those areas. Not that it matters now, it's spread all over.
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But even in full lock down you still have something like 40% of the workforce still out there and deployed in essential services.
When you are locked down at home it seems like everyone else is locked down too, but they aren't.
Well it was more hypothetical than realistic, although I'm sure they could have locked down a lot more people than they did and with the benefit of hindsight it would have been much better than dragging it out.
While politically constitutionally difficult in the US, we could have closed borders of states, counties or some arbitrary divisions early on to isolate it to those areas. Not that it matters now, it's spread all over.
Well, most countries in the world seem to be in 'controlled burn mode'. Staying locked down until there is a vaccine is not really an option although I assume this is what China is doing at the moment. But at least they seem to have contained Covid19 for now. They can't resume international travel until the majority of the Chinese is immune through vaccination or has been through a Covid-19 infection.
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Don't hold your breath waiting for a vaccine :horse:
Decades later they are still working on magic cures for the common cold, re-badged flu, hay fever, winter morning sniffles,
and everyones favorite no go demise app, cancer
i.e. corona/covid better take a ticket and get in the queue.. :popcorn:
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But even in full lock down you still have something like 40% of the workforce still out there and deployed in essential services.
When you are locked down at home it seems like everyone else is locked down too, but they aren't.
Well it was more hypothetical than realistic, although I'm sure they could have locked down a lot more people than they did and with the benefit of hindsight it would have been much better than dragging it out.
They could have, but it wouldn't have lasted more than a week before the supply chains ground to a halt and people start starving, not to mention other services.
People underestimate what resources and manpower is required to keep society feed and functioning. They couldn't have locked down much more in terms of percentage of working population.
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The purpose of the lockdown is/was to enforce distancing. There is no need to stop work, just keep a distance and wash your hands, so 40% or even 50% is a nonsense figure because it implies nothing. What keeping the other 60% at home did was show people this was very serious, and those at work kept their distance as much as they could, so the aim of the lockdown was achieved even if your figures weren't as extreme as you want.
Without the lockdown people would have been much more lax (in fact, as shown here in the UK, they were and had to have the lockkdown enforced before they took the issue seriously). In Australia you were lucky you get there soon enough to make it count. You can see from other places that they were less lucky. But just because your place got away with it doesn't mean the lockdown was pointless or useless, and you can't say that you would have coped fine without it.
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But even in full lock down you still have something like 40% of the workforce still out there and deployed in essential services.
When you are locked down at home it seems like everyone else is locked down too, but they aren't.
Well it was more hypothetical than realistic, although I'm sure they could have locked down a lot more people than they did and with the benefit of hindsight it would have been much better than dragging it out.
While politically constitutionally difficult in the US, we could have closed borders of states, counties or some arbitrary divisions early on to isolate it to those areas. Not that it matters now, it's spread all over.
Regarding your last sentence, (mainly)...
Why would it be 'difficult' constitutionally?? Can't your President 'Mandate' what is to be done, like our Prime minister? I would have assumed that there are special 'bylaws' that cover certain times like 'Wars' (and this present scenario!) that Military Law etc can be in effect!??
As to 'Boundaries', yes, in the USA it has spread all over, but please consider this!!...
Our State of Western-Australia is quite large, so apart from Interstate travel restrictions/blocks, our state is divided up (NOW!) into multiple areas, for boundary/isolation. Now, Perth, our main City, is virtually where ALL the cases are!! 200kms South of Perth, are multiple major townships/areas like Bunbury, Bussleton, Margaret-River etc etc are in our own isolated area here in W.A. where we can not travel to the likes of Perth, and visa versa. Now we have NO infections in our 'zone', so as long as no-one crosses into our 'zone', then NO-ONE here WILL !! This must eventually govern 'our' restrictions here?
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But even in full lock down you still have something like 40% of the workforce still out there and deployed in essential services.
When you are locked down at home it seems like everyone else is locked down too, but they aren't.
Well it was more hypothetical than realistic, although I'm sure they could have locked down a lot more people than they did and with the benefit of hindsight it would have been much better than dragging it out.
While politically constitutionally difficult in the US, we could have closed borders of states, counties or some arbitrary divisions early on to isolate it to those areas. Not that it matters now, it's spread all over.
Regarding your last sentence, (mainly)...
Why would it be 'difficult' constitutionally?? Can't your President 'Mandate' what is to be done, like our Prime minister? I would have assumed that there are special 'bylaws' that cover certain times like 'Wars' (and this present scenario!) that Military Law etc can be in effect!??
/---/
Your Liberty To Spread Your Virus Ends Just Where My Nose Begins
(with apologies https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/10/15/liberty-fist-nose/) (https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/10/15/liberty-fist-nose/))
:)
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Don't hold your breath waiting for a vaccine :horse:
Decades later they are still working on magic cures for the common cold, re-badged flu, hay fever, winter morning sniffles,
(...)
Sorry for being naive maybe here, I certainly do not know all vaccines in existence. But do we actually have any working vaccine to protect effectively against any coronavirus at this point?
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A stilbenoid polyphenol, resveratrol, which is found in a great many plants, looks to me like it might be helpful. (But it might not be, too)
People have used RESV to inhibit numerous other viruses and it does show in vitro activity against MERS and SARS.
Also, a number of medical informatics programs scanning for promising lead molecules point it out because it seems to have affinity to the spike protein of COVID-19.
It may be a good representative of a whole new way to approach viruses (https://mbio.asm.org/content/mbio/5/6/e02249-14.full.pdf).
But we don't know. (It could do nothing, or even make it worse) It needs the research community's attention.
It did help with MERS (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5307780/). (related virus)
It can be aerosolized (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5454880/). It helps with acute lung injury (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6079135/) caused by a standard inflammatory substance (LPS which is found in the large intestine, its a toxin made by bacteria) .
It would be helpful if any of you are doctors, or knew doctors, if you could get them to read those links. Smart doctors will read them, not take a position first. (unless they actually know the answer, which it appears to me that nobody does)
It just seems to me like we may be ignoring a substance with great potential to help people.
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It just seems to me like we may be ignoring a substance with great potential to help people.
It is of no consequence on the grand scale if the few us here ignore it. I do wonder, very much so, what drives your insistence in this being the right forum for shilling grape seed and red wine.
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You're misunderstanding me completely. I'm sorry. As I sit here I am listening to a Senate committee hearing which is talking about the US's response to COVID-19. I know a lot about functional foods, and have since I was young. I'm trying to help.
All ideas with any merit at all should be evaluated. Especially inexpensive, easy to implement ones.
The science is solid.
I don't know what else to say. It might help. And then again it might not.
I have no financial stake in anything. Shilling implies selling. I have nothing I'm selling.
It just seems to me like we may be ignoring a substance with great potential to help people.
It is of no consequence on the grand scale if the few us here ignore it. I do wonder, very much so, what drives your insistence in this being the right forum for shilling grape seed and red wine.
Grapes and wine, as far as I know, even if it did help, I suspect its likely grapes and wine would not contain enough resveratrol to be that useful. Since we all want to see people be able to return to normalcy we need to respond to this illness. Actually, we do know that RESV is helpful with some kinds of influenza. Low dose RESV may help build immunity when combined with vaccines.
Look on PubMed and you'll see its a very unique substance immunologically.
What we MAY be able to do is something like this.
Antiviral Effect of Resveratrol in Piglets Infected with Virulent Pseudorabies Virus
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6164078/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6164078/)
I have no idea if it would work. I am just saying that they should investigate it in the COVID-19 context. This investigation is urgently needed.
because there is a real chance that it might work and because it would be so easy to implement if it does work.
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cdev, this is like the fifth thread where you've mentioned resveratrol. Several relating to COVID-19 but also anything relating to health.
I understand you believe in it as a cure-all, but, if some compound/chemical/"extract" or supplement appears to help with a wide range of problems, then its probably bollocks. I don't understand your obsession with it. If you search the forum for "resveratrol" you'll find quite a few results, all by you (surprisingly, my post replying to yours in an earlier thread isn't there).
You link to a study on resveratrol vs a pseudorabies virus - what makes you think that virus is anything like this latest coronavirus?
Simply stating "it might be helpful, it might not" isn't really saying anything. Eating two cucumbers a day might help with, I dunno, arthiritis.. then again, it might not.
As I said in a previous thread, there is little evidence for any benefit to supplementation. No-one, as far as I can see, is suggesting its completely ineffective for anything, just that, I have yet to find any credible evidence for a benefit.
I'm sure there are thousands investigating the many drugs that have already been proven to be safe, and just look at what happens when people ignore the evidence and go with what they believe in? https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/covid-19-out-of-control-science-and-bypassing-science-based-medicine/
Time and resources (and in some cases lives) were wasted because people liked the idea that there was this random drug that magically cured people, rather than follow the evidence.
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Regarding your last sentence, (mainly)...
Why would it be 'difficult' constitutionally?? Can't your President 'Mandate' what is to be done, like our Prime minister? I would have assumed that there are special 'bylaws' that cover certain times like 'Wars' (and this present scenario!) that Military Law etc can be in effect!??
As to 'Boundaries', yes, in the USA it has spread all over, but please consider this!!...
Our State of Western-Australia is quite large, so apart from Interstate travel restrictions/blocks, our state is divided up (NOW!) into multiple areas, for boundary/isolation. Now, Perth, our main City, is virtually where ALL the cases are!! 200kms South of Perth, are multiple major townships/areas like Bunbury, Bussleton, Margaret-River etc etc are in our own isolated area here in W.A. where we can not travel to the likes of Perth, and visa versa. Now we have NO infections in our 'zone', so as long as no-one crosses into our 'zone', then NO-ONE here WILL !! This must eventually govern 'our' restrictions here?
The constitution includes a right to travel which prevents things like locking down state borders. The president has very little real authority, contrary to what the one we currently have in office likes to think. They cannot simply suspend the constitutional rights of citizens without doing something very extreme like declaring martial law. It's the sort of thing likely to incite an armed revolt in this country. It's not impossible, but it would be difficult and a political death sentence in the more conservative areas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_under_United_States_law
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You're misunderstanding me completely. I'm sorry. As I sit here I am listening to a Senate committee hearing which is talking about the US's response to COVID-19. I know a lot about functional foods, and have since I was young. I'm trying to help. All ideas with any merit at all should be evaluated. Especially inexpensive, easy to implement ones. The science is solid. I don't know what else to say. It might help.
It just seems to me like we may be ignoring a substance with great potential to help people.
It is of no consequence on the grand scale if the few us here ignore it. I do wonder, very much so, what drives your insistence in this being the right forum for shilling grape seed and red wine.
Grapes and wine, as far as I know, even if it did help, I suspect its likely grapes and wine would not contain enough resveratrol to be that useful.
"Did help with MERS" - the study you linked is about resveratrol being effective in vitro against the MERS-CoV. It's a bit of a stretch to say it "helped" when it was not clinically tried. The study found that a certain dosis of the substance prolonged cell culture survival and acknowledges that no in vivo considerations have been made.
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It seems to me likely that you arent understanding what I'm saying because you ignored what I said and instead youre trying to put words in my mouth.
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This is right on topic, and its new. Note that it says that more research is needed.
J Biomol Struct Dyn. 2020 Apr 29:1-16. doi: 10.1080/07391102.2020.1762743. [Epub ahead of print]
Stilbene-based Natural Compounds as Promising Drug Candidates against COVID-19.
Wahedi HM1, Ahmad S2, Abbasi SW1.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32345140 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32345140)
Abstract
The pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) presents a great threat to public health. Currently, no potent medicine is available to treat COVID-19. Quest for new drugs especially from natural plant sources is an area of immense potential. The current study aimed to repurpose stilbenoid analogs, reported for some other biological activities, against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and human ACE2 receptor complex for their affinity and stability using molecular dynamics simulation and binding free energy analysis based on molecular docking. Four compounds in total were probed for their binding affinity using molecular docking. All of the compounds showed good affinity (> -7 kcal/mol). However, fifty nanoseconds molecular dynamic simulation in aqueous solution revealed highly stable bound conformation of resveratrol to the viral protein: ACE2 receptor complex. Net free energy of binding using MM-PBSA also affirmed the stability of the resveratrol-protein complex.
Based on the results, we report that stilbene based compounds in general and resveratrol, in particular, can be promising anti-COVID-19 drug candidates acting through disruption of the spike protein. Our findings in this study are promising and call for further in vitro and in vivo testing of stiblenoids, especially resveratrol against the COVID-19.
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19; MM-PBSA; Molecular docking; Molecular dynamic simulations; Stilbene-based natural compounds
PMID: 32345140 DOI: 10.1080/07391102.2020.1762743
---------------------------------
There needs to be research because if it helps, it will be very useful, but it may not help, if thats the case, we need to know that too. People shouldnt try this themselves. The research community needs to investigate it.
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It seems to me likely that you arent understanding what I'm saying because you ignored what I said and instead youre trying to put words in my mouth.
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This is right on topic, and its new. Note that it says that more research is needed.
Which means: we have no cure or anything remotely useful at all but just wanted our 15 minutes of fame. It seems the daily radically new battery invention hoax has been replaced by a daily radically new Covid-19 cure hoax.
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Isn't it wise, if somebody is an engineer, to solve each problem by the most straightforward, simple means that exists?
"Did help with MERS" - the study you linked is about resveratrol being effective in vitro against the MERS-CoV. It's a bit of a stretch to say it "helped" when it was not clinically tried. The study found that a certain dosis of the substance prolonged cell culture survival and acknowledges that no in vivo considerations have been made.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=resveratrol+virus (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=resveratrol+virus) << Search to get the big picture.
That is what I am saying that we need. Testing in animals. Soon.
The study with resveratrol, piglets and pseudorabies virus that I cited was to show you that the basic concept is sound, even with a virus that infects the brain. (COVID-19 also infects the brain, and its invasion of the CNS is most likely why people stop breathing. So that paper shows that it can and does kill this other substantially more virulent virus in the piglets' CNS. "in vivo"
if resveratrol inhibits replication of the COVID-19 virus as its possible it will (see my previous posts) - its time to test it with animal models.
After doing a great deal of reading on the side effects of other drugs being tested, and their results so far, I think there actually is a possibility that - if it works, it may be the best alternative. Because it may help address many other symptoms of COVID-19. Sepsis, pulmonary fibrosis, various coagulopathies, it may be neuroprotective, nobody knows if it can prevent the propagation of the coronavirus up axons to infect the brain stem. It would be easy to test. ) But it may do much more because of the situation with sepsis and cytokines and chemokines causing sudden changes in the integrityof the respiratory epithelium. Injuring the parts of the lung that do the breathing. Resveratrol helps the lungs recover quite a bit in that situation, acute lung injury and ARDS. It also helps other organs from various kinds of sepsis including polymicrobial sepsis.
There also is a way it could be
aerosolized, like n-acetyl-cysteine has been. Using beta-glucan.
A slight reformulation might make it useful in the lower respiratory tract infection, with its pneumonia.as an aerosol- it would get the substance to where it would do the most use quickly.
Sometimes pneumonia is caused by injuries that cause a lot of damage, because when cells die they release cytokines. This is also what happens when people suffer any abdominal injury such as blunt force trauma. That causes large amount of cytokie release and the sunbequent injury can become life threatening very quickly. That kind of injury can become an emergency for similar reasons as covid-19 often does even though the cause seems completely different, it really isnt.
From what I have read, resveratrol may prevent the pneumonia devolving into acute lung injury or ARDS.
in that kind of situation. Its possible that that is what is happening, large numbers of cells may be dying and releasing cytokines/chemokines for a similar reason, cell deaths. If that is the case, resveratrol might be a dramatic help. It may prevent blood clotting and reduce strokes, as it does elsewhere, and reduce the size of infarcts when strokes do occur, as its known to do that. It may be helpful in kawasaki disease coagulopathy in children.
But this is all speculation whether it would in COVID-19.
It MAY be both an antiviral and an immunomodulator in one. That could be a very good thing.
And then again it may not be. But it seems it has potentials that none of the other proposed therapies have, and more of a track record as far as we already know it may have use in some of its symptoms, when caused by other (biologically diverse) pathogens including viruses. Whether it would help with them is a long shot, but you can do this yourself, investigate on pubmed if various COVID-19 pathologies return any results when you add the word resveratrol. But this investigation needs to be done in animal models, not people.
And let me make it clear here, I'm not a doctor, I am just speculating here, and its a long shot because there are so many variables. But I would be lying if I didnt say that it seems as if there MAY be a path to a unique solution to this huge problem - and it just seems worth trying. If it works, and again, many IFs exist, but IF it works in its simplest form, it could be a huge help, even if it simply lowered the severity of the infection a small amount, because by starting sooner, even low dose resveratrol (which is actually a food, not a drug) might help keep a significant number of infected people out of the hospital and ICU.
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I repeat: this is the wrong place.
PS:
Wahedi HM1, Ahmad S2, Abbasi SW1.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32345140 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32345140)
Full text is here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07391102.2020.1762743 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07391102.2020.1762743)
You must be kidding: This is not even in vitro. This is a molecular simulation study.
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I repeat: this is the wrong place.
PS:
Wahedi HM1, Ahmad S2, Abbasi SW1.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32345140 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32345140)
Full text is here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07391102.2020.1762743 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07391102.2020.1762743)
You must be kidding: This is not even in vitro. This is a molecular simulation study.
Can I ask you something? why are you arguing with me when I'm just suggesting we investigate this.
Why are you afraid of- having more knowledge?
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Yes, and there are a lot of them.
I repeat: this is the wrong place.
PS:
Wahedi HM1, Ahmad S2, Abbasi SW1.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32345140 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32345140)
Full text is here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07391102.2020.1762743 (https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07391102.2020.1762743)
You must be kidding: This is not even in vitro. This is a molecular simulation study.
Can I ask you something? why are you arguing with me when I'm just suggesting we investigate this.
Why are you afraid of- having more knowledge?
I don't think it is a fear of "having more knowledge" but rather having discussion (and if shows promise, "research") squandered on poor solutions just because someone believes in a cure-all. If you were some authority that had to allocate man-hours and resources researching possible treatments, you would first follow lines of inquiry that have some evidence of efficacy, regardless of personal beliefs. They might be dead ends, but you start with what you know, eliminating them one by one until you're left with less plausible avenues. If there was ample evidence for what you're suggesting, surely others would have picked up on it? It's not like a brand new compound, it has been studied a fair bit.
You can't just "try anything and see what works" on a whim, because it would take forever. I'm sure authorities aren't resistant to the idea of certain drugs being effective just because of some dogma, or "big pharma", it is almost always because there just isn't sufficient evidence to warrant further investigation.
Also, AFAIK, we are all engineers, not doctors, and whilst perhaps there are some biochemists and specialists on the forum, I doubt any are in a position or start animal testing of a compound that has shown little promise:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resveratrol (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resveratrol)
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/resveratrol-of-mice-and-men/ (https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/resveratrol-of-mice-and-men/)
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Can I ask you something? why are you arguing with me when I'm just suggesting we investigate this.
Why are you afraid of- having more knowledge?
I'm arguing the "we". This is not the right audience to plead your case.
Just look at the studies you're presenting. Nobody here has the knowledge to critically appraise them. This is all far, very far from any clinical application. Many of the recent papers, especially when the subject is COVID-19 are not even peer reviewed yet and if you listen to the actual experts in the field - there's a tonne of papers being published right now by who-knows, "publish or perish" is the game. This is not "more knowledge", this is just noise, "techno-babble", to my ears.
You say you're not a doctor. You most certainly are not a virologist or molecular biologist or any applicable -ist and if you think you understand what these papers are about and what they represent in the overall landscape of covid-19 research, I believe you're fooling yourself. Would you know what a 125µM dose of resveratrol represents when applied to a cell culture (I took this from the MERS paper)? Would you know that a 1µM dose is already called "extreme"? Is this a concentration that can be achieved through medication at all? How high would you have to dose it in an aerosol? How high in a "pill"? Is this even feasible, without killing the patient?
None of this will have any relevance for medical treatment for the next couple of _years_. Yes, it's "promising", from the point of view of the research team, because it promises more funding. But that's about it.
PS: The often-cited study on the effect of Hydroxychloroquine on virus replication in a cell culture mentioned 50% inhibition with a dose of 1µM. Just to put things into perspective.
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Don't hold your breath waiting for a vaccine :horse:
Decades later they are still working on magic cures for the common cold, re-badged flu, hay fever, winter morning sniffles,
(...)
Sorry for being naive maybe here, I certainly do not know all vaccines in existence.
But do we actually have any working vaccine to protect effectively against any coronavirus at this point?
You're far from naive mate :-+ application for 'sorry' acceptance has been declined ;D
The long :=\ and short answer is a NO, but test tube incompetents and or crooks desperate to stay in business will say YES for a colored water placebo 'trial release'
or wimp out with 'getting closer to a breakthrough..' anyway, as they have done so-o-o many times before.. which few choose to remember
to keep us hanging on, like watching a cliff hanger movie :popcorn:
or a classic DJ Youtube video with a big dollar dumpster score on the bench > will it work, easy fix,
or magic smoke, sparks n flames? :scared:
anyone with a clue about how symptoms, diseases, viri/viruses, and how the body immune system works, reacts, accepts and rejects, would know it's impossible,
and not everyone has the same physiology and tolerance to afflictions, and or drugs pumped into them to combat symptoms or ailments.
and that's aside from the shady science and pharma companies keeping the little people and gubbermint departments in the dark about ALL such matters
and or milking any situation involving the latest greatest 'hitherto unknown and UNSEEN' corona/covid badged mortality maker for all it's worth
Most drug companies originated back in the 1800s (perhaps earlier?) as street dope dealers, mickey finn muggers, and snake oil floggers
then became 'legit' with all the money and property they ripped off the hard working faith suckers over decades,
look up their 'history', that's if they haven't sent in their Wiki and Google well paid 'moderator' trolls yet, to 'censor' it up a bit, or soften the dark bits accordingly
Any landslide or diversionary comments, silly charts and cash for comment 'science' goon bully talk to sway and confuse,
won't ever change that fact that there will be NO zip nada nein etc working vaccine for corona, camry, corolla, Hi-Lux, Swine,
Mad Cow, Fat Cow, Bird Flu, Pig Flu, Bat Flu, 'pick a Country' Flu, Hollywood Flu, Stupid Flu, (enter your fav flu here), any time soon
The only current working vaccines and preventative medicine drugs are the old school boring stuff > eat well, stay healthy in body/mind and be reasonably fit,
and only indulge in pain relief poppers or booze when absolutely necessary
and hope the bastards don't poison your community's water supply or food chain (old school 'OUTBREAK')
or stick you with a 'mandatory vaccine' the administers would not dare jab themselves with
or their family, friends and cohorts,
because that suss stuff is reserved only for clean tax payer guinea pigs,
not the filthy minded rats in human form trading as.. well you can probably guess by now
--------------------------
I think I gabbed it too much again :-\ so getting set for the conspiracy deniers to pummel me once more,
= troll calling, baiting, off topic, chasing off new members, report, hassle the admin, ousted,
all that good stuff, for whatever it takes to suppress any boat rockers popping questions
I'll admit they are good at it, versatile, discrete teamwork play, extremely persistent, so credit given where due :clap:
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Don't hold your breath waiting for a vaccine :horse:
Decades later they are still working on magic cures for the common cold, re-badged flu, hay fever, winter morning sniffles,
(...)
Sorry for being naive maybe here, I certainly do not know all vaccines in existence. But do we actually have any working vaccine to protect effectively against any coronavirus at this point?
Nope. They were working on a SARS vaccine when SARS was infecting people. When SARS went away they stopped work, even though a mutation of SARS was highly likely to return.
Prevention may be better than cure, but cures are where the money is. That has been the history of vaccines in general.
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But just because your place got away with it doesn't mean the lockdown was pointless or useless, and you can't say that you would have coped fine without it.
I have never said that, in fact I have said the opposite.
What I have said is that there is no real data to quantify how much of a difference it actually made, because (obviously) there was no control group. Again, not implying anything by that, and certainly not implying it made no difference. I'm just sick of all the people who categorically state or imply it was the sole reason behind our good results, I'm calling BS on that viewpoint, it's a contributor.
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While we've been here this whole major drama has been playing out over IP and coronavirus. If they put one tenth of the energy into finding a cure for coronavirus as they are into all defending their turf we would have a cure by now. What are the stakes? I hghly recommend people watch the film "Fire in the Blood (https://fireintheblood.com/)" - which is about the HIV epidemic and poor countries and areas like Africa, india South America. And about the worth of human lives. Also see the web page of Bill Haddad who died last week. . Its very sad because he was a great person by all accounts (http://billhaddad.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-aids-story-you-may-not-have-heard.html?view=timeslide)!
Now the debate is who gete the money from these yet to be discovered vaccines and drugs, should they be able to ask what the market will bear, or will it bear it?
There is a growing consensus in many countries, that Big Pharma should not be able to charge extortionate prices for COVID-19 drugs.
BUT- Look at the recent situation with Gilead's Hepatitis C treatment. the price was based on the cost to treat hepatitis C over a lifetime (https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnlamattina/2016/12/08/gileads-ceo-apologetic-about-sovaldis-1000-per-pill-price-tag/) in a Western hospital.
Some people thought $1000 a pill was excessive.
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From Clinical Research Memes https://www.facebook.com/groups/1664725823783443/permalink/2606776812911668/ (https://www.facebook.com/groups/1664725823783443/permalink/2606776812911668/)
A lot of people have been asking me what it's like being on the COVID wards in the hospital, so I figured I'd share what a typical day looks like for me:
6am - Wake up. Roll off of my pile of money that Big Pharma gave me. Softly weep as it doesn’t put a dent in my medical school loans
6:30am - Make breakfast, using only foods from the diet that gives me everlasting life by avoiding all fats, sugars, carbs, and proteins. For details buy my book and check out my shop.
7am - Get to work, load up my syringes with coronavirus before rounds.
8am - See my patients for the day. Administer the medications that the government tells me to. Covertly rub essential oils on the ones I want to get better.
9:30am - Call Bill Gates to check how 5G tower construction is going, hoping for more coronavirus soon. He tells me they’re delayed due to repairs on the towers used to spread the Black Plague. Curse the fact that this is the most efficient way to spread infectious diseases.
10am - One patient tells me he knows “the truth” about coronavirus. I give him a Tdap booster. He becomes autistic in front of my eyes. He’ll never conspire against me again.
11am - Tend to the secret hospital garden of St. John’s wort and ginkgo leaves that we save for rich patients and donors.
12:30pm - Pick up my briefcase of money from payroll, my gift from Pfizer for the incomprehensible profits we make off of the free influenza vaccine given every year.
1pm - Conference call with Dr. Fauci and the lab in Wuhan responsible for manufacturing viruses. Tell them my idea about how an apocalypse-style zombie virus would be a cool one to try for the next batch.
2pm - A patient starts asking me about getting rid of toxins. I ask her if she has a liver and kidneys. She tells me she knows “the truth” about Big Anatomy and that the only way to detoxify herself is to eat nothing but lemon wedges and mayonnaise for weeks. I give her a Tdap booster.
2:45pm - Help the FBI, CIA, and CDC silence the masses. Lament the fact that I can only infringe on one or two of their rights. Oh well, there’s always tomorrow.
4pm - One of my rich patients begins to crash. Laugh as I realize I’ve mismatched her spirit animal and zodiac moon sign. I switch out the Purple Amethyst above her bed for a Tiger’s Eye geode. She stabilizes. I throw some ginkgo leaves on her for good measure
6pm - Go onto YouTube and see coronavirus conspiracy videos everywhere. Curse my all powerful government for how inept they are at keeping people from spreading “the truth”
6:10pm - Go onto Amazon and see that a book about “the truth” is the #1 seller this week. Question the power of my all powerful government. Make a reminder to myself to get more Tdap boosters from the Surgeon General next time we talk.
7pm - Time to go home. Before I leave, sacrifice a goat to Dr. Fauci and say three Hippocratic Oaths.
9pm - Take a contented sigh as I snuggle under the covers made of the tinfoil hats of my enemies, realizing that my 4 years of medical school and 3 years of residency training have been put to good use today.
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I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
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Apparently the plan here in LA County is to keep the lockdown going until August. Wife is going to lose her mind before that, I think.
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I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
Plenty to compare it to. CV19 isn't over yet, but so far we haven't even come close to the death toll from the 1918 pandemic (675,000 US, 50 million worldwide). Remember the US population at the time was a bit over 100 million, so that's a pretty significant death ratio....at least 6000 per million.
If you want more recent, at least within my lifetime, the 1957 and 1968 pandemics each killed at least 100,000 in the US. CV19 has the potential to beat that, but isn't there yet.
And the 2009 one on Obama's watch, which turned out to be wimpy (only 13K died) compared to Covid19, but one doesn't know that beforehand. Which is why Obama left pandemic playbooks and human resources for the Trump administration. Which were then eliminated, shelved, ignored, and the still-working warning systems were attributed to political action rather than actual danger.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html)
Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it. While not always true, there's a lot of truth in that saying.
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I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group."
There are many small "control groups". Places like care homes, ships, island communities. There was the aircraft carrier parked in Japan. You can't do lock down on a navy ship.
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It just seems to me like we may be ignoring a substance with great potential to help people.
It is of no consequence on the grand scale if the few us here ignore it. I do wonder, very much so, what drives your insistence in this being the right forum for shilling grape seed and red wine.
Personally, I don't need much convincing that red wine is good for you! :D
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Apart from the epidemiology, the financial issue is what is the most problematic for people.
They can't evict everybody. I think they should freeze all bills relating to housing (mortgages and rents and similar) At least for small landlords and low income tenants. (Because it's an unprecedented situation)
in a freeze for both tenants and landlords. Because in many areas, people just dont have the money. Many small landlords may be in a similar situation too, financially. The rent is the big one for many people, and landlords often have substantial ongoing bills too. Small landlords are the people who rent to most "small" tenants and more often than not they are not evil people they are just small businesspeoople. Some are bad landlords, but there are not so many of them, unfortunately, the ones that exist,, cause a lot of problems.
They should just freeze those bills for the duration, not eliminate them, not have a balloon payment either. That is the most fair to everybody and doesn't put the taxpayers on the line for the money either. That way a few months is tacked on at the end of the mortgage or similar. And they cannot evict people for nonpayment, nor is a big lump sum due as soon as the emergency ends. Similar with healthcare bills. (health insurance co pays and deductibles, which can be huge). People should also remember that once foreign corporations are involved in anything, (foreign banks, which may have invested here anticipating lots of foreclosures, really! Or foreign health insurers. The government is only allowed to pay these bills in a bona-fide emergency because of trade policy! A very very dumb trade policy. All that talk about Medicare for all, could only happen after we pulled out of that agreement. Otherwise, healthcare policy can only go one way. towards privatization and less govt involvement and more globalization.)
I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
Plenty to compare it to. CV19 isn't over yet, but so far we haven't even come close to the death toll from the 1918 pandemic (675,000 US, 50 million worldwide). Remember the US population at the time was a bit over 100 million, so that's a pretty significant death ratio....at least 6000 per million.
If you want more recent, at least within my lifetime, the 1957 and 1968 pandemics each killed at least 100,000 in the US. CV19 has the potential to beat that, but isn't there yet.
And the 2009 one on Obama's watch, which turned out to be wimpy (only 13K died) compared to Covid19, but one doesn't know that beforehand. Which is why Obama left pandemic playbooks and human resources for the Trump administration. Which were then eliminated, shelved, ignored, and the still-working warning systems were attributed to political action rather than actual danger.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html)
Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it. While not always true, there's a lot of truth in that saying.
Amen. Lets not forget, this right now is likely only the "Herald wave" with the big epidemic coming next year, next flu season, at least thats how it worked with influenza.
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There is no guide to how to minimize death and injury. We're figuring it out as we go along. So we should try to keep people on track. And realize that contact tracing and improving hygeine is where we need to get better. I personally think that if we want large workplaces to reopen, we have to wait until we have a means of preventing large scale illness. Because here in the US, in low wage industries, large numbers of poor people will die if we send them back to work in those kinds of businesses. Because they are too close to one another. Also ventilation needs to be examined in a lot of settings. Heating and cooling systems that recycle stale air will need to be replaced by fresh air ventilation. They should also freeze LNG export because its the only affordable energy source for that. We were lucky because the winter was abnormally warm and of course, COVID-19 basically eliinated the biggest consumers needs for the late winter and spring this year and probably reduced needs for the next as well, but that is not going to last forever, but the lack of business this year might mean that the winters will get colder. Nobody knows where energy prices will end up but we have to be aware, exporting LNG means substantially higher energy prices if everything else remained the same. And natural gas is the way most Americans heat and cook, electricity is much more expensive and likely to get more if the price of gas rises a lot. (The EIA projections say it will track natural gas prices) Millions of buildings are not insulated well enough for a permanent spike in gas prices. Especially not if there is a requirement for more, powered ventilation. They will need energy retrofits and landlords are going to be keen to raise rents and replace tenants -eliminating rent control. That adds up to a major housing problem for the US, especially large cities with lots of postwar multiunit housing. We cant handle that all right now, it would be a sucker punch to the poor to force them to find new housing in the midst of all this.
I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group."
There are many small "control groups". Places like care homes, ships, island communities. There was the aircraft carrier parked in Japan. You can't do lock down on a navy ship.
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Heating and cooling systems that recycle stale air will need to be replaced by fresh air ventilation.
Just adding (non ozone) UVC lamps to the air handlers would be a much cheaper way to prevent HVAC systems from spreading diseases.
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I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
Plenty to compare it to. CV19 isn't over yet, but so far we haven't even come close to the death toll from the 1918 pandemic (675,000 US, 50 million worldwide). Remember the US population at the time was a bit over 100 million, so that's a pretty significant death ratio...
Well now I know how useful my history class in high school was! More people died from the Spanish flu than the war, and that disease was worse in every way, and lasted two years.Yet it gets glossed over, as they jump straight to the roaring twenties.
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I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
Plenty to compare it to. CV19 isn't over yet, but so far we haven't even come close to the death toll from the 1918 pandemic (675,000 US, 50 million worldwide). Remember the US population at the time was a bit over 100 million, so that's a pretty significant death ratio...
Well now I know how useful my history class in high school was! More people died from the Spanish flu than the war, and that disease was worse in every way, and lasted two years.Yet it gets glossed over, as they jump straight to the roaring twenties.
That decade was generally awful.
Lets hope that this one does not attempt to surpass it. :wtf:
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I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
I think Dave meant something else; more like putting half a country in lockdown and the other halve not to see what the difference is. IMHO China and Italy provide enough data to know what the outcome of the latter will be. There are more countries on the world and the US isn't a special case.
The underlying problem is that a virus spreads exponentially if the reproduction ratio R0 is above 1. This means there is a very sensitive tipping point and doing too little results in an out-of-control situation quickly. So in order to stop a virus outbreak you have to start with maximum measures and then slowly relax while keeping R0 below 1. Countries which where quick to implement maximum measures stopped the outbreak quickly and can also relax the isolation measures sooner and get to 'controlled burn mode'.
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Pet peev but R0 is only relevant to patient 0. We have 4 million+ patients, so we are not at R0. The 0, as I understand it is the iteration number and is used to categorise the virus. Rn might not be equal to R0 because the 4000000 infected may not get infected again so the R value will decrease as the virus runs out of victims.
But I get what people mean, just being a pedant and pretending like I know what I'm talking about.
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I think Dave meant something else; more like putting half a country in lockdown and the other halve not to see what the difference is. IMHO China and Italy provide enough data to know what the outcome of the latter will be. There are more countries on the world and the US isn't a special case.
The underlying problem is that a virus spreads exponentially if the reproduction ratio R0 is above 1. This means there is a very sensitive tipping point and doing too little results in an out-of-control situation quickly. So in order to stop a virus outbreak you have to start with maximum measures and then slowly relax while keeping R0 below 1. Countries which where quick to implement maximum measures stopped the outbreak quickly and can also relax the isolation measures sooner and get to 'controlled burn mode'.
What about the huge investments in all the infrastructure and equipment? Every second it sits unused costs money. In the old days they would have bought all-risk insurance. But now they don't have to.
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As a nicer story. In Belfast with money, equipment and staff being thrown at the NHS the kidney transplant team used the opportunity to clear their waiting list for transplants and have achieved a record 20 transplants since this shit started.
The NHS management in general clearly sucks, but I say they should keep who ever manages that department.
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Pet peev but R0 is only relevant to patient 0. We have 4 million+ patients, so we are not at R0. The 0, as I understand it is the iteration number and is used to categorise the virus. Rn might not be equal to R0 because the 4000000 infected may not get infected again so the R value will decrease as the virus runs out of victims.
Yes, but 4M people is still a pretty low figure compared to the 7B+ people in total. Of course we don't really know how many people have been infected, not counted and are now possibly immune to it - overall, possibly a much larger figure than 4M. But we just don't know.
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/------/
Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it. While not always true, there's a lot of truth in that saying.
Yes!
While some find it impossible to think how the US should have handled this, others, including leading scientists and even Senators within the US Government, have a very different take.
From yesterday's Senate hearing - you can watch it for yourself:
https://www.help.senate.gov/hearings/covid-19-safely-getting-back-to-work-and-back-to-school (https://www.help.senate.gov/hearings/covid-19-safely-getting-back-to-work-and-back-to-school)
0:53:23 Adm. Giriou (HHS, basically in charge of testing) states (proudly) that the US has now more than doubled the number of tests (per capita) conducted in S. Korea.
Note that the population of the US is ~6.36 TIMES the population of S. Korea. Note also that the virus showed up in SK and the US at the same time.
2:27.60 Senator Kaine (D) accurately notes that in March, SK had conducted 40X the amount of tests as the US.
3:44.47 Senator Romney (R) accurately notes that by March 5, SK had conducted 140,000 tests while the US had conducted 2000.
Now, the projection is that the US will be testing 40-50 MILLION / month by Sept (0:56:48) or 25-30 MILLION / month when school opens up in the fall (1:07:00) with the qualification, IF needed (2:33.45).
One can dwell on the differences between the two countries, but to do so only to rationalize is an error, in my view.
Part of learning from history is understanding what has and has not happened in the present. Yes, there are those that would say that it is better to not focus on "mistakes" made in the past and look forward. I think we should look at the past and look at the present BEFORE we look ahead.
It does not have to be a political party, us against them, issue. You do not have to be an MD, an immunologist or a scientist, but you do have to pay attention and you have to be willing to try to be a critical thinker. But if we (in the US) do not face up to what has happened and the failing (if not inexcusable bungling) of what has happened, we will be making this much worse.
SK New Cases
[attachimg=2]
US New Cases
[attachimg=1]
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Are they still only counting as "cases" people who tested positive for Covid-19? And as deaths people who were tested before they die, or died in a hospital?
Large numbers of people are dying at home and many, probably most were never tested. Also, its possible that single people without an active support network may have died at home and people may not realize they have died until the smell or something else causes a problem. (the sherriff shows up to evict them for unpaid rent?)
What I am saying is that the curve may still be rising. Perhaps not exponentially as before, but its impossible to tell.
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Are they still only counting as "cases" people who tested positive for Covid-19? And as deaths people who were tested before they die, or died in a hospital?
Large numbers of people are dying at home and many, probably most were never tested. Also, its possible that single people without an active support network may have died at home and people may not realize they have died until the smell or something else causes a problem. (the sherriff shows up to evict them for unpaid rent?)
What I am saying is that the curve may still be rising. Perhaps not exponentially as before, but its impossible to tell.
This point was asked by a Senator and addressed by Fauci (I don't have the time code). My memory is that he simply explained why the mortality figure is probably underestimated (including the example cases that you mentioned), that is, he answered why most SMEs think that it is underestimated, but, of course, he correctly, did not speculate on a different number.
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I wonder what they are going to do if it continues to grow.
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I wonder what they are going to do if it continues to grow.
Coming from a speaker with no country code, that's an especially meaningless question if you don't define "they". There are so many "they"s that nearly all the likely answers will be reality in the worldwide context.
Even WITH a country code, "they" is pretty ambiguous, especially in a place like the USA....federal, state, county, city. Many of the most important decisions are happening at the state level. There are 50 of those, D.C., and several territories, many of which will follow different paths. Also Indian reservations, which have their own governments at a state-like level (to the endless frustration of the states they reside in, of course).
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I think Dave had a good point when he said "there's no control group." It's impossible for me to think of how the U.S. should have handled this, when there's nothing to compare it to. The U.S. has never actually tackled a disease this dangerous before. I guess it's better to have a bunch of poor people than a bunch of dead people.
Plenty to compare it to. CV19 isn't over yet, but so far we haven't even come close to the death toll from the 1918 pandemic (675,000 US, 50 million worldwide). Remember the US population at the time was a bit over 100 million, so that's a pretty significant death ratio...
Well now I know how useful my history class in high school was! More people died from the Spanish flu than the war, and that disease was worse in every way, and lasted two years.Yet it gets glossed over, as they jump straight to the roaring twenties.
and it mostly killed young adults, I guess everyone was used to lots of death from the WW1 meat grinder
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and it mostly killed young adults, I guess everyone was used to lots of death from the WW1 meat grinder
Recently I did some reading about how immunity against flu virusses works. It seems that you are immune forever to the first type of virus that hits you and build up partial immunity (which wears off) to the virusses which come next. According to the paper I found this can be an explaination for why age groups are affected differently by a certain flu virus.
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They can't evict everybody. I think they should freeze all bills relating to housing (mortgages and rents and similar) At least for small landlords and low income tenants. (Because it's an unprecedented situation)
in a freeze for both tenants and landlords. Because in many areas, people just dont have the money. Many small landlords may be in a similar situation too, financially. The rent is the big one for many people, and landlords often have substantial ongoing bills too. Small landlords are the people who rent to most "small" tenants and more often than not they are not evil people they are just small businesspeoople. Some are bad landlords, but there are not so many of them, unfortunately, the ones that exist,, cause a lot of problems.
They should just freeze those bills for the duration, not eliminate them, not have a balloon payment either. That is the most fair to everybody and doesn't put the taxpayers on the line for the money either. That way a few months is tacked on at the end of the mortgage or similar. And they cannot evict people for nonpayment, nor is a big lump sum due as soon as the emergency ends. Similar with healthcare bills. (health insurance co pays and deductibles, which can be huge). People should also remember that once foreign corporations are involved in anything, (foreign banks, which may have invested here anticipating lots of foreclosures, really! Or foreign health insurers. The government is only allowed to pay these bills in a bona-fide emergency because of trade policy! A very very dumb trade policy. All that talk about Medicare for all, could only happen after we pulled out of that agreement. Otherwise, healthcare policy can only go one way. towards privatization and less govt involvement and more globalization.)
The potential problem with this is that one person's rent or bill payment is another person's paycheck. While it's true that some landlords are corporations with deep pockets, plenty of others are just ordinary people who own a second property that they rent out or in some cases an extra room in their home which is something I used to do to make ends meet back in the first several years after I bought my house. It's easy to say just freeze rent payments but that doesn't freeze the need of the property owner to eat, pay property taxes, perform maintenance and other expenses. Everything is connected, if you want to freeze one person's bill, you have to freeze the expenses of the next person in the chain, and the next and the next, somebody has to be left holding the bag.
I'd be in a real mess if I were renting a home to someone who lost their ability to pay and I couldn't evict them to get someone in there who can pay. Also it's going to be ugly when all these people who live paycheck to paycheck are several months behind on rent even if they are allowed to pause that many of them are never going to get caught up again. A shocking number of people seem to be perpetually behind already and seem to live on the assumption that they'll have more money later than they have today. I have friends who are always broke and gradually accruing more and more debt while deluding themselves that they'll pay it back "later". One guy in particular was coasting along for years waiting to strike it rich, I finally lost touch with him after it became obvious that he was just going to keep waiting forever for success to land in his lap.
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They can't evict everybody. I think they should freeze all bills relating to housing (mortgages and rents and similar) At least for small landlords and low income tenants. (Because it's an unprecedented situation)
in a freeze for both tenants and landlords. Because in many areas, people just dont have the money. Many small landlords may be in a similar situation too, financially. The rent is the big one for many people, and landlords often have substantial ongoing bills too. Small landlords are the people who rent to most "small" tenants and more often than not they are not evil people they are just small businesspeoople. Some are bad landlords, but there are not so many of them, unfortunately, the ones that exist,, cause a lot of problems.
They should just freeze those bills for the duration, not eliminate them, not have a balloon payment either. That is the most fair to everybody and doesn't put the taxpayers on the line for the money either. That way a few months is tacked on at the end of the mortgage or similar. And they cannot evict people for nonpayment, nor is a big lump sum due as soon as the emergency ends. Similar with healthcare bills. (health insurance co pays and deductibles, which can be huge). People should also remember that once foreign corporations are involved in anything, (foreign banks, which may have invested here anticipating lots of foreclosures, really! Or foreign health insurers. The government is only allowed to pay these bills in a bona-fide emergency because of trade policy! A very very dumb trade policy. All that talk about Medicare for all, could only happen after we pulled out of that agreement. Otherwise, healthcare policy can only go one way. towards privatization and less govt involvement and more globalization.)
The potential problem with this is that one person's rent or bill payment is another person's paycheck. While it's true that some landlords are corporations with deep pockets, plenty of others are just ordinary people who own a second property that they rent out or in some cases an extra room in their home which is something I used to do to make ends meet back in the first several years after I bought my house. It's easy to say just freeze rent payments but that doesn't freeze the need of the property owner to eat, pay property taxes, perform maintenance and other expenses. Everything is connected, if you want to freeze one person's bill, you have to freeze the expenses of the next person in the chain, and the next and the next, somebody has to be left holding the bag.
I'd be in a real mess if I were renting a home to someone who lost their ability to pay and I couldn't evict them to get someone in there who can pay. Also it's going to be ugly when all these people who live paycheck to paycheck are several months behind on rent even if they are allowed to pause that many of them are never going to get caught up again. A shocking number of people seem to be perpetually behind already and seem to live on the assumption that they'll have more money later than they have today. I have friends who are always broke and gradually accruing more and more debt while deluding themselves that they'll pay it back "later". One guy in particular was coasting along for years waiting to strike it rich, I finally lost touch with him after it became obvious that he was just going to keep waiting forever for success to land in his lap.
There are small lenders as well. I (as an individual, not a bank) hold a property recorded mortgage on a property with three houses. The owner/landlord lives in one and rents out the other two. So two tenants play the landlord, who uses about half of that income to pay me every month and the other half for maintenance and personal expenses. This arrangement has been quite successful for 18 years so far. As it happens, I won't be in pain if that rather substantial chunk of cash flow is suspended for a while, but others may not be so well off.
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James, it seems you didnt read, or didn't understand, what I said.
What is large scale services liberalization? Its a giant displacement of people in developing countries (the carved in stone - long planned "losers" of globalization) who have worked their entire lives, because they are suddenly more expensive than the new workforce. After training it the old workers (who may be young or old) are dismissed. By the millions. They are free to go.
Really, since this was planned for a long time (32 years, actually, since the meeting in Punta Del Este, Uruguay of September 15-20 1986, or perhaps even earlier, as two trade activists who had been at those meetings insisted to me, they said its roots went back to 1982.) The coronavirus must have been the answer to the rich's prayers. Providing a plausibe excuse and explanation. But the scheme is hardly new.
Its been hanging over our heads for a long time.
Look, I dont want to devolve into the usual mush people emit. But, people have to realize that the very rich are not rich because they worked especially hard and earned all that money themselves.
I didn't read it all, frankly it's a bit of a wall of text that bounces from one topic to the next and a lot of it is not stuff that particularly interests me.
I'm also not sure what the very rich have to do with this, I never said anything about the very rich having worked hard to get there, I agree that the huge and growing wealth gap is a very real problem, and people like CEOs and massively overpaid and that a lot of them got there by exploiting others, but this isn't really about them. This is about everyone else, there's an entire supply chain of sorts supporting housing and everything else. Take for example freezing rent or mortgage payments, is that going to come out of the pocket of the super rich guy at the top of the corporation that owns their apartment complex or the bank that owns the mortgage? Absolutely not, instead they'll lay off some of the underlings, property management, maintenance, suppliers, office staff, tellers, customer service, etc. Cut pay, cut benefits, cut corners, outsource, as income drops off it's only going to impact all the ordinary people who you're trying to help. If you have it out for the top you can't attack them from the bottom and expect that to accomplish anything useful because the top will be the absolute last to suffer, just look at any large corporation that has imploded and see how things worked out for the executives compared to the rest of the employees. Nothing exists in isolation, it's all connected and there's no easy fix.
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BBC News: Coronavirus antibody test a 'positive development'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808)
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How many more off-topic posts do I have to delete in this thread before get the message to stay on topic?
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This is a very good read, thank you for posting that. Saved and going to print it out and put it in a page protector to have it handy.
Pretty decent information about risk of infection. Particularly relevant in these "opening up" times. Written by an immunologist. With references. A 12 min read and no video. From 5 days ago (but updated since). Worthwhile in my view.
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR0 (https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR0)
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BBC News: Coronavirus antibody test a 'positive development'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808)
My wife managed to procure a few Covid-19 antibody tests (according to the documentation they should be 90% accurate) because we got a flu in the beginning of March. We both tested negative but the procedure is more involved than simply putting a drop of blood in a test. The tests needs quite a large amount of blood and I'm still not sure whether I followed the procedures correctly. So no conclusive results. All in all I can't really recommend buying a test. Better wait for a government test program. Oh, and sticking a needle in your finger to draw blood sucks.
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BBC News: Coronavirus antibody test a 'positive development'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808)
My wife managed to procure a few Covid-19 antibody tests (according to the documentation they should be 90% accurate) because we got a flu in the beginning of March. We both tested negative but the procedure is more involved than simply putting a drop of blood in a test. The tests needs quite a large amount of blood and I'm still not sure whether I followed the procedures correctly. So no conclusive results. All in all I can't really recommend buying a test. Better wait for a government test program. Oh, and sticking a needle in your finger to draw blood sucks.
I am interested, how did they define the 90% accuracy? Hope this isn't viewed as off-topic, but it really does interest me and has a lot of bearing on how these tests are advertised.
To many people 90% accurate suggests this result:
[attachimg=3]
But, one can, legitimately, operationally define 90% accuracy to include this result:
[attachimg=1]
I know it seems ridiculous, but there are tests that lean toward the latter result AND they are acceptable if they are very cheap and better tests exists. In that case, they are something along the lines of a cheap screen to select candidates for the more expensive and better test. Also, depending on the the beta weights for the 4 quadrants, the latter result can be quite useful if the cost of a 'miss' is many times the cost of a 'false alarm'
Anybody remember the old Signal Detection Theory stuff with sensitivity and bias?
[attachimg=2]
edit: attachments
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BBC News: Coronavirus antibody test a 'positive development'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808)
My wife managed to procure a few Covid-19 antibody tests (according to the documentation they should be 90% accurate) because we got a flu in the beginning of March. We both tested negative but the procedure is more involved than simply putting a drop of blood in a test. The tests needs quite a large amount of blood and I'm still not sure whether I followed the procedures correctly. So no conclusive results. All in all I can't really recommend buying a test. Better wait for a government test program. Oh, and sticking a needle in your finger to draw blood sucks.
I am interested, how did they define the 90% accuracy? Hope this isn't viewed as off-topic, but it really does interest me and has a lot of bearing on how these tests are advertised.
The instruction leaflet says 'based on a clinical trial' but I have not been able to find any approval for official use. Only a Canadian government page which says 'under review'.
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How many more off-topic posts do I have to delete in this thread before get the message to stay on topic?
The whole thread is largely what I'd consider off topic under normal circumstances, but given the extremely broad impacts of what is going on in the world right now I don't know that it's a bad thing necessarily although it would be nice to keep all of the Covid related discussion in one thread rather than having it seeping into everything. Personally I'd be happy to have the entire thread wiped out once this pandemic blows over and things settle into something resembling normal.
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I just want to clarify that I was NOT suggesting a one way deferment of rent and mortgage payments only for tenants, I was saying that efforts should be made to push those kinds of monthly, income dependent bills for everybody into the future, including landlords payments on their mortgages. In particular efforts should be made to prevent large scale disruptions for people rather than forcing people into unsafe situations. (Or burying people in medical debt).
Suppose they did start evicting poor eople for nonpayment of rent, when they couldnt work out onto the streets. Adding large numbers of families, including children, retired people, everybody who doesnt have the money, becoming homeless and likely losing everything they own, unless they can afford a storage space to the disaster. Already, huge numbers of people have lost their jobs and healthcare coverage.
And it will also make the epidemic far worse because people in homeless shelters cant social distance, they don't have the personal space people living in a home do.
Whatever society asks people to do, it must make sense and be fair. It shouldnt be based on rigid inflexible rules. Because this is an unprecedented situation.
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BBC News: Coronavirus antibody test a 'positive development'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52656808)
My wife managed to procure a few Covid-19 antibody tests (according to the documentation they should be 90% accurate) because we got a flu in the beginning of March. We both tested negative but the procedure is more involved than simply putting a drop of blood in a test. The tests needs quite a large amount of blood and I'm still not sure whether I followed the procedures correctly. So no conclusive results. All in all I can't really recommend buying a test. Better wait for a government test program. Oh, and sticking a needle in your finger to draw blood sucks.
I am interested, how did they define the 90% accuracy? Hope this isn't viewed as off-topic, but it really does interest me and has a lot of bearing on how these tests are advertised.
The instruction leaflet says 'based on a clinical trial' but I have not been able to find any approval for official use. Only a Canadian government page which says 'under review'.
oic The wave has started, as we all knew it would. I did some looking around and found this test for $169 https://www.healthlabs.com/covid-19-antibody-test?pid=9007812&iid=&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvq_4m5S06QIVhOiGCh0NwgQuEAAYAyAAEgKsw_D_BwE (https://www.healthlabs.com/covid-19-antibody-test?pid=9007812&iid=&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvq_4m5S06QIVhOiGCh0NwgQuEAAYAyAAEgKsw_D_BwE)
Their description of the accuracy....
The accuracy of a lab test is measured in "sensitivity" and "specificity". Sensitivity is the test's ability to correctly identify those with antibodies (true positives) and specificity is the test's ability to identify those without the antibodies (true negatives). According to independent studies from Abbott Labs, Quest Diagnostics and the University of Washington, this test has a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 99.6% making it the most accurate COVID-19 antibody test currently available.
...which *sounds* pretty darn good to me.
Seems you go to one of their "Over 4,500 CLIA-Certified Labs U.S. Labs" and get a blood draw. No, you can't use your health insurance, but you can use PayPal.
BTW: ducking out of the page gets you a 10% discount offer.
I just don't know how good this is and I also don't know what these products/services are going to be like in the next few months...I do know we will be seeing a whole lot more of them.
Way back when (Apr 3) https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2997418/#msg2997418 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2997418/#msg2997418) We were talking about the idea of a so-called immunity certificate - looks like it is here.
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Still a test only shows if you have had it or not. There is no guarantee you won't be infected again and if so that you'll survive the next time too. Curiosity though... The bottom line is that I'll still need to plan for some 'down time'.
For sure antibody testing will be a big thing in the near future.
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How many more off-topic posts do I have to delete in this thread before get the message to stay on topic?
The whole thread is largely what I'd consider off topic under normal circumstances, but given the extremely broad impacts of what is going on in the world right now I don't know that it's a bad thing necessarily although it would be nice to keep all of the Covid related discussion in one thread rather than having it seeping into everything.
Yes, but people just can't help themselves by getting into a politics and other rubbish.
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How many more off-topic posts do I have to delete in this thread before get the message to stay on topic?
The whole thread is largely what I'd consider off topic under normal circumstances, but given the extremely broad impacts of what is going on in the world right now I don't know that it's a bad thing necessarily although it would be nice to keep all of the Covid related discussion in one thread rather than having it seeping into everything.
Yes, but people just can't help themselves by getting into a politics and other rubbish.
Yes, I suppose that is true. It is almost impossible for some level of politics [not] to come into it because, well, Governments handle pandemics and the entire planet is impacted by this one.
If the topic has to go, I will not whine. I will say this, in all honesty, I have read so much about this topic in so many places, I can't even believe how many hours that I have spent doing so.
As far as any EE or similar forum...This place has been BY FAR the most open and the place that has had the most up-to-date content posted and with the most intelligent discussion. I stress the most open and the most tolerant of wide viewpoints (some of them so offensive to me personally that I have wretched a bit when reading them). This was also true in a previous thread that was closed.
The only thing worse than closing the thread or the topic would be to only allow a certain viewpoint. I have seen plenty of that, including on EE forums.
I get signal-to-noise ratios and if it gets locked, so be it and sorry if I contributed to the reason.
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Things can get a little too open-minded. Don't forget that if you open your mind far enough, you risk the contents falling out! ;)
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Re anticipated vaccine chat above
When they release the two working corona vaccines required,
one for confirmed affected victims
and a related one for prevention of corona
I will be glad to queue up first and give the latter a go :-+
since I haven't copped a winter sniffle yet, nor has anyone for miles around afaik,
and YT sneezing and coughing just doesn't happen anymore
due to sheer willpower and lots of practice in social distance practicing public gatherings, whilst acquiring essential items,
even in the most extreme dusty conditions
But before I volunteer for that 'do the right thing' concerned citizen activity,
I'll take a random sample acquired to an independent testing lab or three, unaware of what it is,
and await their reports
I'm confident it's all legit, and a waste of holiday money I'll never get to spend now anyway,
so how much can it cost to do one's own verification before getting jabbed?
It's not much different to testing a few suspect label rated no name fuses in a bulk buy,
or other electronics components that may or may not quite do what's written on the tin
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Still a test only shows if you have had it or not. There is no guarantee you won't be infected again and if so that you'll survive the next time too.
Well I'm glad you have such a positive outlook ;D
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I think this pandemic is really having a good effect on our work...
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I think this pandemic is really having a good effect on our work...
Less of the meeting rubbish, more of the doing stuff kind. If only I could avoid all the distractions of the home environment... That's my biggest detriment to productivity right now.
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I think this pandemic is really having a good effect on our work...
Less of the meeting rubbish, more of the doing stuff kind. If only I could avoid all the distractions of the home environment... That's my biggest detriment to productivity right now.
Be careful what you wish for. I have no distractions. No contact. I also have depression and while it probably helped the first 2-4 weeks, my routines have begun to slowly evaporate. My sleep has become problematic. My motivation dropping to near zero. But I have project managers breathing down my neck asking me for progress on a project that they put me on because it required an experienced developer... but it's not a development project, it's just that management are too stupid to realise that. I have barely the slightest clue what I'm doing.
And while I still look forward to 5 o'clock to "get out of work". When that time comes and I close all the work windows and browser tabs, I'm left sitting alone in silence again with nothing to do and no motivation to do it anyway.
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Exercise helps. After eating dinner I go for a walk for a couple of hours. Then I come back and shitpost on here, buy something I don’t need off amazon and go to bed and watch YouTube for an hour.
Next day I am wired and full of energy again.
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I think this pandemic is really having a good effect on our work...
Less of the meeting rubbish, more of the doing stuff kind. If only I could avoid all the distractions of the home environment... That's my biggest detriment to productivity right now.
Be careful what you wish for. I have no distractions. No contact. I also have depression and while it probably helped the first 2-4 weeks, my routines have begun to slowly evaporate. My sleep has become problematic. My motivation dropping to near zero. But I have project managers breathing down my neck asking me for progress on a project that they put me on because it required an experienced developer... but it's not a development project, it's just that management are too stupid to realise that. I have barely the slightest clue what I'm doing.
And while I still look forward to 5 o'clock to "get out of work". When that time comes and I close all the work windows and browser tabs, I'm left sitting alone in silence again with nothing to do and no motivation to do it anyway.
Do some exercise - get some hand weights, do some pushups, situps, go for a walk. You will feel 1,000,000,000 x 10^22 times better!
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Great minds think alike, @bd139!
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Don't hold your breath waiting for a vaccine :horse:
Decades later they are still working on magic cures for the common cold, re-badged flu, hay fever, winter morning sniffles,
(...)
Sorry for being naive maybe here, I certainly do not know all vaccines in existence.
But do we actually have any working vaccine to protect effectively against any coronavirus at this point?
You're far from naive mate :-+ application for 'sorry' acceptance has been declined ;D
The long :=\ and short answer is a NO, but test tube incompetents and or crooks desperate to stay in business will say YES for a colored water placebo 'trial release'
or wimp out with 'getting closer to a breakthrough..' anyway, as they have done so-o-o many times before.. which few choose to remember
to keep us hanging on, like watching a cliff hanger movie :popcorn:
or a classic DJ Youtube video with a big dollar dumpster score on the bench > will it work, easy fix,
or magic smoke, sparks n flames? :scared:
anyone with a clue about how symptoms, diseases, viri/viruses, and how the body immune system works, reacts, accepts and rejects, would know it's impossible,
and not everyone has the same physiology and tolerance to afflictions, and or drugs pumped into them to combat symptoms or ailments.
and that's aside from the shady science and pharma companies keeping the little people and gubbermint departments in the dark about ALL such matters
and or milking any situation involving the latest greatest 'hitherto unknown and UNSEEN' corona/covid badged mortality maker for all it's worth
Most drug companies originated back in the 1800s (perhaps earlier?) as street dope dealers, mickey finn muggers, and snake oil floggers
then became 'legit' with all the money and property they ripped off the hard working faith suckers over decades,
look up their 'history', that's if they haven't sent in their Wiki and Google well paid 'moderator' trolls yet, to 'censor' it up a bit, or soften the dark bits accordingly
Any landslide or diversionary comments, silly charts and cash for comment 'science' goon bully talk to sway and confuse,
won't ever change that fact that there will be NO zip nada nein etc working vaccine for corona, camry, corolla, Hi-Lux, Swine,
Mad Cow, Fat Cow, Bird Flu, Pig Flu, Bat Flu, 'pick a Country' Flu, Hollywood Flu, Stupid Flu, (enter your fav flu here), any time soon
The only current working vaccines and preventative medicine drugs are the old school boring stuff > eat well, stay healthy in body/mind and be reasonably fit,
and only indulge in pain relief poppers or booze when absolutely necessary
and hope the bastards don't poison your community's water supply or food chain (old school 'OUTBREAK')
or stick you with a 'mandatory vaccine' the administers would not dare jab themselves with
or their family, friends and cohorts,
because that suss stuff is reserved only for clean tax payer guinea pigs,
not the filthy minded rats in human form trading as.. well you can probably guess by now
--------------------------
I think I gabbed it too much again :-\ so getting set for the conspiracy deniers to pummel me once more,
= troll calling, baiting, off topic, chasing off new members, report, hassle the admin, ousted,
all that good stuff, for whatever it takes to suppress any boat rockers popping questions
I'll admit they are good at it, versatile, discrete teamwork play, extremely persistent, so credit given where due :clap:
WOW!!!!.... Now I really know what a 'TROLL' is. Says nothing positive in life, knocks & abuses everyone & everything, solves nothing with their 'views', and contributes nothing except rants of self appraisal and bitterness. Why are they so ANGRY in 'life' ?? :scared:
(https://www.howtogeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-internet-troll.png)
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WOW!!!!.... Now I really know what a 'TROLL' is. Says nothing positive in life, knocks & abuses everyone & everything, solves nothing with their 'views', and contributes nothing except rants of self appraisal and bitterness. Why are they so ANGRY in 'life' ?? :scared:
Just add people to your ignore list.
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Exercise helps. After eating dinner I go for a walk for a couple of hours. Then I come back and shitpost on here, buy something I don’t need off amazon and go to bed and watch YouTube for an hour.
Next day I am wired and full of energy again.
LOL! :-DD
I just came back from the swimming pool which has been open since yesterday. Lots of happy faces.
I've never been very sporty and considering me a sportive person would be an insult to every sportive person but I have to admit being physically active benefits my work productivity. I've made some new friends in the process too.
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I've been trying to motivate to go for a cycle once a day, but so far it's been every other day and only about 2 miles / 5 minutes.
Haven't cycled in years.
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I've been trying to motivate to go for a cycle once a day, but so far it's been every other day and only about 2 miles / 5 minutes.
Haven't cycled in years.
Aim to go out for at least 20 minutes and try to find something interesting to cycle to. I do cycling as well but slow and preferably over different routes.
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I keep trying to buy a bike but can't get what I want because everyone has decided to do exactly the same thing and has bought them all >:(. On a positive note this means I'm being pushed back to when all the people who bought nice ones during the covid-19 are trying to shift them on ebay >:D
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Exercise helps. After eating dinner I go for a walk for a couple of hours. Then I come back and shitpost on here, buy something I don’t need off amazon and go to bed and watch YouTube for an hour.
Next day I am wired and full of energy again.
LOL! :-DD
I just came back from the swimming pool which has been open since yesterday. Lots of happy faces.
I've never been very sporty and considering me a sportive person would be an insult to every sportive person but I have to admit being physically active benefits my work productivity. I've made some new friends in the process too.
Same here, sad that it took a pandemic to discover basics like this!
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Just to clarify: I was already swimming regulary long before the Covid-19 pandemic. But pandemic or no pandemic: sitting in your home by yourself day after day is depressing.
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This shouldn't need to be said ... and I'm sure I'm not the only one to make this mistake...
Turning to alcohol doesn't work. Sure one night a week maybe. But it's so easy to slip into the habbit of drinking night after night. It gets you short term gains in the fact you stop giving a fuck for while and chill out, but you really do pay for it and it's accumulative and will wear you down badly.
Not wise either as you are just showing 'rona your hand.
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I've always limited myself to drinking no more than two evenings in the same week and only when we've done virtual happy hour events with coworkers or friends. Doesn't sound like much fun to just sit around and drink on my own.
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Swimming in an outdoor chlorinated pool is extremely good low impact exercise and because of the chlorine, it's likely that it's pretty safe if you go straight into the pool. (an outdoor shower is of course fine too)
In the past I've twice, had pool access through work. which is great in the summer. I really enjoy it. Have not swam recently, though, unfortunately.
:(
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Swimming in an outdoor chlorinated pool is extremely good low impact exercise and because of the chlorine, it's likely that it's pretty safe if you go straight into the pool. (an outdoor shower is of course fine too)
Being from Northern Ireland, water is something that exists, in nature, in "Fucking freezing." form only.
Heated pools are lies! Lies!
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People soup :--
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Sadly for me I've been unable to even exercise since going on lockdown due to a medical issue that actually occured the day California went into lockdown. Once I can though I'll be back in my garage hitting the weights and rowing machine. My sleep and schedule have been pretty much ruined since this started. Still 2.5 months to go so I'm sure I'll get it all sorted before things go back to normal.
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Northern California is like that too, except in El Nino years, when suddenly they get dolphins jumping and you see barracuda and bonito and all sorts of crazy tropical fish. Every couple of years.
Most of the time, though, you go in and swiftly come out. Wincing in pain. Even (especially) in the (foggy and often cold) summer.
Being from Northern Ireland, water is something that exists, in nature, in "Fucking freezing." form only.
Heated pools are lies! Lies!
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@eevblog <- Dave, you're a fitness instructor? How about a workout video for EE's and other people who don't (normally) do work outs? You know, middle aged guys who think a high impact work out is dropping their multimeter on the floor, by accident :popcorn:
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Swimming in an outdoor chlorinated pool is extremely good low impact exercise and because of the chlorine, it's likely that it's pretty safe if you go straight into the pool. (an outdoor shower is of course fine too)
I went to an indoor pool. They have re-organised the swimming pool so there is a one way all the way through the pool building. Fortunately the layout of the pool I went to has the possibility to seperate the dressing cabins in two sections (incoming and outgoing). You enter through the front door, pay cash-less with a debit card and then undress in open dressing cabins. It is mandatory to put your swimwear on at home. No showering and directly into the pool. The pool is now divided in 3 wide lanes for various swimming speeds (slow, fast and insane). This actually is a better setup compared to the narrow lanes they normally have . Afterwards no shower and use the other (outgoing) dressing rooms to dry , put your clothes on and leave through the back door. There are fixed one hour time slots for lane swimming with 50 minutes of actual swim time and a maximum of 8 people per lane. Reservation is mandatory.
I stopped a bit early so I had a short chat with the (young) lady supervising the swimmers. At some point I had to use a 'get away from me' hand gesture to make her move away from me. We both had a laugh about it. People keep getting closer to you when you are having a conversation.
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You couldn't have made this up. This is what happens when a country spends too many days in lock down.
Coronavirus: Dutch singletons advised to seek ‘sex buddy’*
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52685773?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cvenzmgywd2t/netherlands&link_location=live-reporting-story (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52685773?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cvenzmgywd2t/netherlands&link_location=live-reporting-story)
* Provided they are free from Covud-19, but not necessarily other viruses.
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You couldn't have made this up. This is what happens when a country spends too many days in lock down.
Coronavirus: Dutch singletons advised to seek ‘sex buddy’*
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52685773?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cvenzmgywd2t/netherlands&link_location=live-reporting-story (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52685773?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cvenzmgywd2t/netherlands&link_location=live-reporting-story)
* Provided they are free from Covud-19, but not necessarily other viruses.
The Dutch talk about (and do) what the rest of us dream of! :D
They are borderline too liberal even for Scandinavians...
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"Friends with benefits"
You couldn't have made this up. This is what happens when a country spends too many days in lock down.
Coronavirus: Dutch singletons advised to seek ‘sex buddy’*
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52685773?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cvenzmgywd2t/netherlands&link_location=live-reporting-story (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52685773?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cvenzmgywd2t/netherlands&link_location=live-reporting-story)
* Provided they are free from Covud-19, but not necessarily other viruses.
The Dutch talk about (and do) what the rest of us dream of! :D
They are borderline too liberal even for Scandinavians...
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WOW!!!!.... Now I really know what a 'TROLL' is.
Says nothing positive in life, knocks & abuses everyone & everything, solves nothing with their 'views', and contributes nothing except rants of self appraisal and bitterness.
Why are they so ANGRY in 'life' ?? :scared:
(https://www.howtogeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-internet-troll.png)
Thanks mate, such comment from concerned fellow aussies is always appreciated, and helpful to all our patriots in these confusing trying times :clap:
I was trying my best to inform the very learned and helpful folks at this electronics forum, they are being duped by millions of networking professionals
spread across all the nations, especially now that communication is easy via international mobile phone coverage, skype, zoom and the like,
with full financial and decisive control over all the information outlets, news media carnivals etc. > welcome to verify that for yourselves if that smells like conspiracy instead of 'investment'
I wrongly assumed many here have the knack to smell the obvious corona bandwagon convid-19 BS, and investigate it thoroughly from all the angles,
especially with all the expertise demonstrated at other thread posts at this forum,
going to town on conspiracy theories, flat earthers, startup project money grabbing scams,
and awesome knowledge of manufacturers original parts and spotting fakes easily etc etc etc
It appears I grossly misjudged and assumed electronics enthusiasts with good diagnostic ability in general,
also had a fair level of street smarts too, to suspect foul play going on, or smell the odor of a good con going down.
I sincerely apologize if my barn door kicking style has upset any members and put me on the troll radar,
as well as brought me to the attention of any closet censor group, making me a target to be ridiculed, ignored and ousted.
If that is the game being played, so be it,
I've watched it happen to others that cared enough to question the international criminal syndicate behavior running rampant again.
this time testing the waters to the extreme, for whatever they have planned next,
which I can guarantee them will be uncontested and unquestioned, and an easy gig/s to pull off, time and time again
Have a good laugh at this comment, troll call or twist it about as before, but please remember who's at home going broke and or frustrated/depressed/bored, or soon will be,
stressing if/when the cushy 'Working From Home' honeymoon period dries up,
questioning by now (SURELY!?) what's really going on, and for how long,
if it's being handled correctly and not now a newly established 'industry'
dragging this out to squeeze a bit more juice..
and spare some kind thoughts who's still making and counting serious money during this ordeal, with no gloves or mask on,
with the ability to buy mortgaged homes, business properties, assets and freeholds for a song soon
Maybe they'll toss some casual work in the bankrupt business once proudly owned,
if you work cheap enough :popcorn:
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I keep trying to buy a bike but can't get what I want because everyone has decided to do exactly the same thing and has bought them all >:(.
Guilty as charged!
My usual sport is archery, but as with all other sports, that's been cancelled for the last couple of months even though it's something that can be done with no close contact between participants at all.
So, instead, I've been getting out on my bike, which I've been reminded is a 10 yr old MTB that's no doubt much more capable than I am over rough ground, but hard work on the road. I've found that recording my rides on Strava (https://www.strava.com/) has been a useful motivator - and a good excuse to design and 3D print a phone mount too.
New bikes are indeed pretty thin on the ground, but I was pleased to discover that the Giant (https://www.giant-bicycles.com/gb) web site usefully shows which retailers have stock of any given model and size. I pick up my Revolt Advanced 2 (https://www.giant-bicycles.com/gb/revolt-advanced-2) next week and I can't wait!
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I've always found it strange why so many people have mountain bikes and only ever use them on the road. There was a craze in the 90s, with heavy steel frame bikes, marketed as mountain bikes, but were rubbish for hills, as they were so heavy. I got a road bike and never looked back. Now I have a gravel bike, as well as a road bike, which has drop handlebars but thicker tyres, so is good for the rough roads.
I wish I could work from home more. People just can't or won't follow the social distancing. Most people just forget, but there are a few people who don't care. It's very worrying to go into work and see it.
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I've always found it strange why so many people have mountain bikes and only ever use them on the road. There was a craze in the 90s, with heavy steel frame bikes, marketed as mountain bikes, but were rubbish for hills, as they were so heavy.
Modern mountain bikes are pretty light, mine was a mid range bike with aluminium alloy frame and wheels.
While they are far less efficient to ride on tarmac, they do open your options massively. For urban cycling, curbs and small steps can be negotiated with ease, especially with suspension. The larger tyre absorbs impacts with pot holes and curbs so you don't get blow outs, pinched tubes and buckled wheels. But when the tarmac runs out and you are on forest trails, coastal scenic paths or gravel paths the road bikes just get left behind.
Where I live in Ireland I'm about a mile away from one of the most beautiful coast lines in the UK, some of it is tarmac, a lot gravel. We also have many miles of "Ulster Way" signposted walking/cycling routes which are 99% gravel.
(looks for the off-topic hammer to come down)
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I’m after a gravel bike or tourer here. Need something which doesn’t wreck you on tow paths and actually goes somewhere on roads :). I did this in the 90s on an old galaxy and it was again good for mental health.
Alas no bikes as mentioned so isolation activity is now “couch to 5k”. So I’m currently looking like a dickhead in tights, some cheap trainers with Jo Wiley shouting at me for the next few weeks instead :-\
https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/exercise/couch-to-5k-week-by-week/ (https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/exercise/couch-to-5k-week-by-week/)
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I've always found it strange why so many people have mountain bikes and only ever use them on the road. There was a craze in the 90s, with heavy steel frame bikes, marketed as mountain bikes, but were rubbish for hills, as they were so heavy.
Modern mountain bikes are pretty light, mine was a mid range bike with aluminium alloy frame and wheels.
While they are far less efficient to ride on tarmac, they do open your options massively. For urban cycling, curbs and small steps can be negotiated with ease, especially with suspension. The larger tyre absorbs impacts with pot holes and curbs so you don't get blow outs, pinched tubes and buckled wheels. But when the tarmac runs out and you are on forest trails, coastal scenic paths or gravel paths the road bikes just get left behind.
Where I live in Ireland I'm about a mile away from one of the most beautiful coast lines in the UK, some of it is tarmac, a lot gravel. We also have many miles of "Ulster Way" signposted walking/cycling routes which are 99% gravel.
(looks for the off-topic hammer to come down)
Yes, modern mountain bikes are much better than the old steel frame ones.
Another thing I dislike about MTBs is the gears are often stupidly low, especially the more modern ones. The top gear is too low to do any decent speed on the road and the lowest gears are still useless off road because I'm quite strong and the back wheel just spins round, if I try to go up too steeper hill in a low gear.
Decent puncture proof tyres are a must on a road bike. Keep them well inflated to minimise pinch punctures and buckled wheels.
I’m after a gravel bike or tourer here. Need something which doesn’t wreck you on tow paths and actually goes somewhere on roads :). I did this in the 90s on an old galaxy and it was again good for mental health.
Alas no bikes as mentioned so isolation activity is now “couch to 5k”. So I’m currently looking like a dickhead in tights, some cheap trainers with Jo Wiley shouting at me for the next few weeks instead :-\
https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/exercise/couch-to-5k-week-by-week/ (https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/exercise/couch-to-5k-week-by-week/)
Yes gravel bikes are good, much better than a mountain bike if you only right on the road, but the surface is a bit rough and ropey.
Here's a link to the one I have. It's got disc brakes which stop quickly, almost puncture proof tyres, a nice, high top gear for going fast downhill and the lowest gear will get you up most hills. If you spend most of the time on the road, it's great, but in my case the tyres, rather than gears limit the off road hill climbing, due to wheelspin, as I found by trying to climb a steep grass bank near my house. I got it from GO Outdoors. I've just tried their website to see if they have them in stock, but it's not working at the moment.
https://www.konaworld.com/rove.cfm (https://www.konaworld.com/rove.cfm)
EDIT:
This place has the 52cm frame size in stock, at a reduced price, so you go for it, if it's the right size for you and you want a gravel bike.
https://www.singletrackbikes.co.uk/m1b116s23p79607/Kona_Rove_2020/Gravel_and_CX_Bikes/RS_GB/189268?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIv4e48ey46QIVTe7tCh3HFAh-EAYYBCABEgIe4fD_BwE (https://www.singletrackbikes.co.uk/m1b116s23p79607/Kona_Rove_2020/Gravel_and_CX_Bikes/RS_GB/189268?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIv4e48ey46QIVTe7tCh3HFAh-EAYYBCABEgIe4fD_BwE)
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I've always found it strange why so many people have mountain bikes and only ever use them on the road. There was a craze in the 90s, with heavy steel frame bikes, marketed as mountain bikes, but were rubbish for hills, as they were so heavy.
Modern mountain bikes are pretty light, mine was a mid range bike with aluminium alloy frame and wheels.
While they are far less efficient to ride on tarmac, they do open your options massively. For urban cycling, curbs and small steps can be negotiated with ease, especially with suspension. The larger tyre absorbs impacts with pot holes and curbs so you don't get blow outs, pinched tubes and buckled wheels. But when the tarmac runs out and you are on forest trails, coastal scenic paths or gravel paths the road bikes just get left behind.
In the end it always depends. A couple of years ago I bought a normal bike although one with suspension. It can deal with some off-road terrain but I wouldn't take it for a long tour on forrest trails. I wish it had steel rims though. I already managed to damage the rim on the front wheel but I'm not sure whether it is due to a bicycle stand where you put the front wheel in or a big hole. I never had problems before with steel rims except for a broken spoke every now and then.
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TV series also start to suffer. Today I was watching an episode where they filled in the missing scenes (about 20%) of the episode with animations.
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Some productions are trying to get back to work in/around Hollywood. Not much though, still very dead.
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Talking about the impact of the virus on business - according to the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52689372):
"Lockdown has certainly prompted a boom in bike sales.
At one point this week shares in Halfords, the country's biggest chain of cycle shops, had jumped 17%.
The company said sales of some cycling equipment had risen 500% since the government ordered us all to stay at home on March 23rd.
Ken Foster says his bike shop, Foster's Cycles, in the Manchester suburb of Chorlton-cum-Hardy, is the busiest it has been since his grandfather opened it back in 1954.
But it has been exceptionally good weather. "
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TV series also start to suffer. Today I was watching an episode where they filled in the missing scenes (about 20%) of the episode with animations.
If you think that's bad, post-Covid Japanese anime (animation) movies will now be a static image of a character just blinking, for 20 minutes. Which isn't any different to pre-Covid come to think of it.
We may have to get used to NOT binge watching box sets, just to make the episodes last to Christmas. Sorry Netflix.
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Lockdown has certainly prompted a boom in bike sales
Just what our essential HGV drivers need, lycra clad families wondering all over the road - as they livestream on Zoom. It's bad enough for our HGV drivers having to remember to use hand sanitiser once a day, but avoiding a MAMIL who last rode a bike 30 years ago, is taking social distancing too far! I'm writing to Boris. Hang on, that MAMIL is Boris!
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If you think that's bad, post-Covid Japanese anime (animation) movies will now be a static image of a character just blinking, for 20 minutes. Which isn't any different to pre-Covid come to think of it.
We may have to get used to NOT binge watching box sets, just to make the episodes last to Christmas. Sorry Netflix.
There's ~60 years of TV shows out there in the world, most of which any one of us have likely never seen before. I still haven't seen any shows made within about the last 3-4 years.
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Lockdown has certainly prompted a boom in bike sales
Just what our essential HGV drivers need, lycra clad families wondering all over the road - as they livestream on Zoom. It's bad enough for our HGV drivers having to remember to use hand sanitiser once a day, but avoiding a MAMIL who last rode a bike 30 years ago, is taking social distancing too far! I'm writing to Boris. Hang on, that MAMIL is Boris!
Cycling isn't that dangerous, it's mixing bikes with motor vehicles which is the problem. The government have said there will be more cycle tracks and some roads closed to motor vehicles, so more people can cycle safely.
I hope they stick to this and do it properly. One of the problems I've had is some cycle lanes are narrow strips along the side of the road and are often more dangerous to use, than cycling on the road. The trouble is the cycle lane is on the left hand side of the road, meaning cyclists will undertake slow moving traffic, for those in other counties we drive on the left here, causing accidents when motorists have to turn left and don't see the cyclist because they're in their blind spot. I just cycle along the middle of the road, when the traffic is slowly moving and nothing is coming the other direction, or the road is wide enough to safely do so.
Cyclists should be separated from motor vehicles, as much as possible and ideally kept away from pedestrians: I've had a near miss with pedestrians on a cycle track because it's dark, windy and pouring with rain and they're dressed in black. I didn't hit them because I had the sense to have nice, bright lights. Some idiots cycle in the dark, with no lights, dressed in black. What's more silly is there's enough room to make the path wider and put a fence in the middle to separate the pedestrians and cyclists.
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@Zero999: thanks for the pointer to the Kona. That's a pretty nice bike for the money. May look in that direction :-+.
@Syntax Error: Better a MAMIL than a Covid statistic :-DD
Anyway on topic again for a minute. OpenReach are digging up the bloody road again today, on a Sunday. Third time this year now. There is nothing more anxiety-building at this point in time than an a couple of OR vans parked up the road when you're a home worker. For the non UK residents, they are the guys here who manage the "last mile" from the exchange to our houses. POTS, ADSL, Copper, fibre, the lot. They consist of a few thoroughly competent individuals and an army of morlocks. A few years back I had a line fault (noise) and the guy came out and buggered the entire line. Said he'd just go back to the van and be back in a minute and drove off. :palm: :palm: :palm:
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Talking about the impact of the virus on business - according to the BBC (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52689372):
"Lockdown has certainly prompted a boom in bike sales.
I went to several bikes shops the other weekend looking for a new bike for Sagan, lines were out onto the street and they were turning away all bike servicing customers. One store hired a new employee just to answer the phone full time, and she couldn't even keep up with the volume. One big chain store has suspended all inter-store deliveries and on-line orders, they just couldn't keep up.
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A year from now I bet you'll be able to find a smoking deal on any number of lightly used bikes. I'd wager at least 30% of the ones being bought right now will be ridden a handful of times and then parked in the garage.
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A year from now I bet you'll be able to find a smoking deal on any number of lightly used bikes. I'd wager at least 30% of the ones being bought right now will be ridden a handful of times and then parked in the garage.
I was looking for a new 2nd hand bike recently, but I think I'll wait... ;D
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One big chain store has suspended all inter-store deliveries and on-line orders, they just couldn't keep up.
It's been quite interesting to see how different bike stores are dealing with being open for business.
One major chain's web site says "You will not be allowed to enter the store but our colleagues will be on hand to pick products for you". Similarly, another says "Please stay within the marked customer area. Unfortunatly, access to the wider shopfloor is not permitted. Let a member of the team know which items you require and we will locate them for you".
Both mention that they're really only open to provide essential services to keep key workers moving, which may be absolutely true, or may be a PR statement to try and deflect criticism over whether or not they "should" be open at all. Either way, I took the hint, and didn't even bother visiting either.
Independent stores were operating much closer to business as usual. Clearly there's a major difference between the answers to "how can we open for business" vs "how can we ask our staff to open for business".
All the independent stores were all limiting the number of customers in store at any given time, so there was some queueing outside, but all the usual services were on offer - advice, fitting, test rides and so on. Both staff and customers are still clearly trying to learn and adapt to what the "new normal" will be... where to stand, can I do 'X' from 2m away, is it OK to touch this - and there's no consensus just yet on what constitutes "safe enough".
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- and there's no consensus just yet on what constitutes "safe enough".
Here in England, having observed the lack of self discipline on display this last weekend, I would say the general public has taken the goverment's "unlimited exercise" directive as meaning, carry on as if nothing had ever happened.
Social distance, follow the arrows, don't crowd, you wot???
I would not be surprised if the R0 number is 1.5 by Friday.
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While the rest of the UK sit around eating popcorn and watching the canary that is England.
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https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/16/857379338/5-uss-roosevelt-sailors-test-positive-for-covid-19-again (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/16/857379338/5-uss-roosevelt-sailors-test-positive-for-covid-19-again)
The U.S. Navy says 13 sailors from the USS Theodore Roosevelt who had apparently recovered from the coronavirus and had received negative test results have now tested positive for a second time.
In a statement released earlier on Saturday when five sailors were found to have retested positive, the Navy said the sailors had "met rigorous recovery criteria, exceeding CDC guidelines," including testing negative for the virus at least twice, but have now retested positive. The statement said the sailors had been monitoring their health and adhered to social-distancing protocols while on board the Roosevelt, which has been docked in Guam following an outbreak infecting hundreds of crew members.
"These five Sailors developed influenza-like illness symptoms and did the right thing reporting to medical for evaluation," the statement said.
At first glance, this seems to be saying that having had CV19 does not make one immune. Unless there's some other explanation.
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It is possible to get tested positive again if you are subjected to enough virus particles to overwhelm the immune system or the immune system is in the process of fighting it off. Also possible to be tested positive again if it's a PCR test and is contaminated or you have bits of dead non-viable virus fragments all over you.
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WOW!!!!.... Now I really know what a 'TROLL' is.
Says nothing positive in life, knocks & abuses everyone & everything, solves nothing with their 'views', and contributes nothing except rants of self appraisal and bitterness.
Why are they so ANGRY in 'life' ?? :scared:
(https://www.howtogeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-internet-troll.png)
Thanks mate, such comment from concerned fellow aussies is always appreciated, and helpful to all our patriots in these confusing trying times :clap:
I was trying my best to inform the very learned and helpful folks at this electronics forum, they are being duped by millions of networking professionals
spread across all the nations, especially now that communication is easy via international mobile phone coverage, skype, zoom and the like,
with full financial and decisive control over all the information outlets, news media carnivals etc. > welcome to verify that for yourselves if that smells like conspiracy instead of 'investment'
I wrongly assumed many here have the knack to smell the obvious corona bandwagon convid-19 BS, and investigate it thoroughly from all the angles,
especially with all the expertise demonstrated at other thread posts at this forum,
going to town on conspiracy theories, flat earthers, startup project money grabbing scams,
and awesome knowledge of manufacturers original parts and spotting fakes easily etc etc etc
It appears I grossly misjudged and assumed electronics enthusiasts with good diagnostic ability in general,
also had a fair level of street smarts too, to suspect foul play going on, or smell the odor of a good con going down.
I sincerely apologize if my barn door kicking style has upset any members and put me on the troll radar,
as well as brought me to the attention of any closet censor group, making me a target to be ridiculed, ignored and ousted.
If that is the game being played, so be it,
I've watched it happen to others that cared enough to question the international criminal syndicate behavior running rampant again.
this time testing the waters to the extreme, for whatever they have planned next,
which I can guarantee them will be uncontested and unquestioned, and an easy gig/s to pull off, time and time again
Have a good laugh at this comment, troll call or twist it about as before, but please remember who's at home going broke and or frustrated/depressed/bored, or soon will be,
stressing if/when the cushy 'Working From Home' honeymoon period dries up,
questioning by now (SURELY!?) what's really going on, and for how long,
if it's being handled correctly and not now a newly established 'industry'
dragging this out to squeeze a bit more juice..
and spare some kind thoughts who's still making and counting serious money during this ordeal, with no gloves or mask on,
with the ability to buy mortgaged homes, business properties, assets and freeholds for a song soon
Maybe they'll toss some casual work in the bankrupt business once proudly owned,
if you work cheap enough :popcorn:
Dear Electro Detective. Thank you for your reply. Let's be honest, (including myself!), unless 'we' (forum people) have direct and faultless understandings of each other here, the fact remains that 'we' don't really 'know' each other from the Proverbial "Bar-Of-Soap". We can ONLY assume things, from what they 'write'.
'I' myself, have been judged over the years... And that's OK!! Not everyone understands where I'm 'Coming From'...
I think that my 'Dig' stemmed from the fact that I'm an 'Aussie' too, and don't want the 'world' to judge us negatively, or place us all in the proverbial "Same-Basket"... It just seems that, (EVEN in your last reply!) that you are repeatedly so 'negative' about all in general ?
At times like this, we all need to work together, and not to alienate everyone in a power struggle?? Be peaceful man...
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(Electro Detective)...
Let's bury the hatchet, and move on !!! ;D
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It is possible to get tested positive again if you are subjected to enough virus particles to overwhelm the immune system or the immune system is in the process of fighting it off. Also possible to be tested positive again if it's a PCR test and is contaminated or you have bits of dead non-viable virus fragments all over you.
Yes, I guess the same applies to almost any other virus, actually.
So being tested positive "again" doesn't mean you are not immune to it.
If you are "immune" to some pathogen, that means your immune system is able to fight it effectively - which is going to be detectable while it's fighting, or am I missing anything?
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Exactly.
The gutter press likes to omit those facts when scaremongering readers for clicks or sales however.
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It is possible to test positive again after testing negative.
Its rare but it has happened with COVID-19, and they still dont know why it seems more common in some places than others.
I am pretty certain they don't know why.
Some viruses never go away. You immune system usually keeps them in check, but if you get an illness that requires you take immunosuppressant drugs or there are environmental causes too, then you become more suceptible to those viruses or if you already have them they may reactivate.
It is possible to get tested positive again if you are subjected to enough virus particles to overwhelm the immune system or the immune system is in the process of fighting it off. Also possible to be tested positive again if it's a PCR test and is contaminated or you have bits of dead non-viable virus fragments all over you.
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It is possible to test positive again after testing negative.
Its rare but it has happened with COVID-19, and they still dont know why it seems more common in some places than others.
I am pretty certain they don't know why.
Some viruses never go away. You immune system usually keeps them in check, but if you get an illness that requires you take immunosuppressant drugs or there are environmental causes too, then you become more suceptible to those viruses or if you already have them they may reactivate.
It is possible to get tested positive again if you are subjected to enough virus particles to overwhelm the immune system or the immune system is in the process of fighting it off. Also possible to be tested positive again if it's a PCR test and is contaminated or you have bits of dead non-viable virus fragments all over you.
Just because someone tests positive, it doesn't mean they're infectious. As he said, the test is sensitive enough to pick up old, inactive virus particles tucked away in the tissues.
Tests can also come back false negative, but as long as that's rare enough, it will have minimal impact on mitigating the spread.
I think we as engineers like to rely on certainties, but in medicine they are rarely any. In a large scale system such as a pandemic, something only needs to work most of the time, in order for it to be effective.
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Thought Emporium has an interesting video on the PCR variant tests. Basically it's a live stream where he actually creates a PCR test for Speckled tobacoo virus to find out if his plants have it. It's very obvious it would pick up broken shards of viral RNA/DNA by how the tests work. It only takes 1 or 2 particles containing the primer sequence to exist in the sample and the enzyme(?) will copy that sequence millions of times any amplify it. So the test only tells you the particular sequence was present, usually only a small section, enough to uniquely identify the virus. It cannot tell you if the piece came from a complete RNA/DNA viral component or from fragment. Nor can it tell you how much of that RNA/DNA was in the sample.
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PCR tests can tell how much is there by a process of progressive dilution. They describe it in terms of "titers" (as in titration). If SARS-CoV-2 RNA titers are described as high that means that the presence of the virus still registered positive through many successive dilutions (of the substance under test). However, if a test is in short supply, it stands to reason that instead of doing multiple tests to determine stength of a virus, they might simply go for a positive or negative, because determining the titer is too resource intensive for an emergency situation.
Thought Emporium has an interesting video on the PCR variant tests. Basically it's a live stream where he actually creates a PCR test for Speckled tobacoo virus to find out if his plants have it. It's very obvious it would pick up broken shards of viral RNA/DNA by how the tests work. It only takes 1 or 2 particles containing the primer sequence to exist in the sample and the enzyme(?) will copy that sequence millions of times any amplify it. So the test only tells you the particular sequence was present, usually only a small section, enough to uniquely identify the virus. It cannot tell you if the piece came from a complete RNA/DNA viral component or from fragment. Nor can it tell you how much of that RNA/DNA was in the sample.
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On immunity from CovId after infection. Will that stop you getting infected, forever, in all circumstances? I'd doubt it. It's not a playground shield, "But I have shield!" Nahnahnahnah!". If you have a measles vaccine are you completely immune to measles? No. If you have been infected, recovered and now show as having antibodies, then you're not immortal, and possibly not even completely immune, but you certainly have much more than the rest of us do in real terms.
The number of coronavirus infections we receive each year is very probably extremely high. Considering most of them are common colds. It's the three deadlier ones we need to watch out for now.
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Following Trump and his followers I have come to the conclusion we need a solution for the majority of people, so I came up with this:
Sodium Hydroxide enema.
It will regulate your sodium levels. It will regulate your cell oxygen levels and of course it will hydrate you.
Look at it this way, you don't want low sodium, it could effect your immune system's response to the virus.
See:
http://chemocare.com/chemotherapy/side-effects/hyponatremia-low-sodium.aspx?fbclid=IwAR1Tl5_ibz67329hdy3DxwjWAIpuWFc4wjBdvoc0OoPhCCmMwdYAR_EzEQg (http://chemocare.com/chemotherapy/side-effects/hyponatremia-low-sodium.aspx?fbclid=IwAR1Tl5_ibz67329hdy3DxwjWAIpuWFc4wjBdvoc0OoPhCCmMwdYAR_EzEQg)
Nor do you want low oxygen, it could lower your immune system and cause you to get CovId19!:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4064601/?fbclid=IwAR3pYcYFeY_O1eZNWgjmmJd4MHSTWPSwkWOv-CtMmI1xP8ru0aN5R7KT2Bg (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4064601/?fbclid=IwAR3pYcYFeY_O1eZNWgjmmJd4MHSTWPSwkWOv-CtMmI1xP8ru0aN5R7KT2Bg)
And you really, don't want to become dehydrated as it will effect your whole bodies response to pathogens.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/dehydration/?fbclid=IwAR2GlFwL69uRWwryHV7pd69ripPlN17pVnEIlJL_AFZzolEOPF-bTXl7Kdk (https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/dehydration/?fbclid=IwAR2GlFwL69uRWwryHV7pd69ripPlN17pVnEIlJL_AFZzolEOPF-bTXl7Kdk)
So. Sodium Hydroxide up the bum is the best way to protect yourself.
Note:
Only works if you do it to yourself.
Does not work on children.
Does not work on those really smart people you know. Yes, them.
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The Trumpster. I feel sorry for those Secret Service agents who right now are left wondering who is the greatest threat to the President?! One could also try taking polyethylene glycol electrolyte solution, aka Moviprep. Possibly the most reactive laxative in the known universe. Or just take viagra like a normal 70+ CEO.
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PCR tests can tell how much is there by a process of progressive dilution. They describe it in terms of "titers" (as in titration). If SARS-CoV-2 RNA titers are described as high that means that the presence of the virus still registered positive through many successive dilutions (of the substance under test). However, if a test is in short supply, it stands to reason that instead of doing multiple tests to determine stength of a virus, they might simply go for a positive or negative, because determining the titer is too resource intensive for an emergency situation.
For quantitative PCR, you only need to perform titration to create a calibration curve.
Here's a good description:
https://www.sigmaaldrich.com/life-science/molecular-biology/molecular-biology-products.html?TablePage=9620611 (https://www.sigmaaldrich.com/life-science/molecular-biology/molecular-biology-products.html?TablePage=9620611)
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I was SURPRISED the other day on TV. (Can't remember what Country...) ???
They were showing the 'Flashing' of the insides of Trains/Buses? with high intensity UltraViolet.
I 'assume' this intensity meant that no people were in them at the time?
It wasn't a continuous 'illumination', but was like a set number of very high power flashes
from a Camera Flash, but of a frequency that guarantees killing the Virus, from everywhere
inside the cabins, without the need for physical cleaning of surfaces!! Looks good, if it works.. 8)
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I've caught that too. Seems suspicious to me. The trains looked like New York subway carts to me. A quick Google confirms it:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/20/21265221/nyc-mta-ultraviolet-light-uvc-coronavirus-disinfect-puro-pictures (https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/20/21265221/nyc-mta-ultraviolet-light-uvc-coronavirus-disinfect-puro-pictures)
If you read the article more carefully it doesn't make much sense. It sounds like a good money sink to me to cash in on the hype. The effect hasn't been scientifically proved and it won't help to prevent human-to-human transmission of virusses much.
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:-+ It smells like a money sinker for sure,
someone spray some Glen20 on that **** before disease spreading flies and mosquitoes rock up :scared:
If it was a true pathogen that had specific frequencies to target and pulse without too much damage to everything else,
that may be a potential to research and trial further.
Been done already last century, many reports of the technique/s apparently working
and dumped, or made illegal by the money shifters of that period, who are now trading in hot stocks in hell,
as will this current lot, and their helpers who are 'doing ok looking out for Number #1'
But because it's a 6 months (and counting...) obvious 'trial scam' being flogged to the clueless public,
and a good one :clap: well worth beating down on any skeptics, deniers, proof seekers, and troll calling them with forum ban requests >:( :rant:
there's no real point in such a time and R+D resource wasting exercise,
except to keep stringing the billions of masked IPA sniffing suckers along, who will soon have the usual winter sniffles
and old age ailments and mortality thing,
so the deceivers will give corona even more cred
Talk to any vintage human being with serious health issues, constant pain, inconvenience and loneliness,
and they'll tell you that cashing out 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, or 1 year earlier just isn't a problem,
whatever brings it on
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UV light does kill pathogens. Its one of the ways that municipalities disinfect water. So if it didnt work many of us would probably have cholera or something like that. We use it every day. Also, the Sun is why we aren't buried in germs. Exposure to sunlight kills a lot of germs.
Hanging your laundry out to dry in bright sunlight (if you live somewhere thats sunny and dry) effectively disinfects it too. And it saves energy.
Some places are so dry that you can wash your clothes, hang them out to dry, take a shower and your clothes are dry before you are done.
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So anyway, I just read this distressing article on the US's pandemic response. WTF?
https://www.nextgov.com/analytics-data/2020/05/how-could-cdc-make-mistake/165565/ (https://www.nextgov.com/analytics-data/2020/05/how-could-cdc-make-mistake/165565/)
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Yup, I think you are right, and it seems the experts are hedging their bets whenever this is discussed now.
They dont seem to be at all sure how long immunity from coronavirus lasts - after somebodty recovers from infection. If it only lasts a short time, making vaccines may not be the right approach. I'd certainly be surprised if immunity from any vaccine lasted longer than immunity from actually surviving infection by the pathogen itself.
The wrong vaccine may even make subsequent infections worse.
On immunity from CovId after infection. Will that stop you getting infected, forever, in all circumstances? I'd doubt it. It's not a playground shield, "But I have shield!" Nahnahnahnah!". If you have a measles vaccine are you completely immune to measles? No. If you have been infected, recovered and now show as having antibodies, then you're not immortal, and possibly not even completely immune, but you certainly have much more than the rest of us do in real terms.
The number of coronavirus infections we receive each year is very probably extremely high. Considering most of them are common colds. It's the three deadlier ones we need to watch out for now.
Some people seem to get sick from those bugs a lot, other people rarely get them. i wonder why?
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UV light does kill pathogens. Its one of the ways that municipalities disinfect water. So if it didnt work many of us would probably have cholera or something like that. We use it every day. Also, the Sun is why we aren't buried in germs. Exposure to sunlight kills a lot of germs.
I guess you didn't read the article. It clearly says the method of using UV to clean subway cars has not been scientifically proven. What else is there to say? You also have to realise that they intend to use the UV light during cleaning. Not during driving around so while the car is in service it will get dirty and people will transfer virusses. So in the end it is just a different way of disinfecting a subway car.
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Seems to me the fall off of UV light intensity from any kind of bulb or tube makes them impractical for disinfecting most things. You'd probably need someone manually moving the light over every surface at a distance of just a few inches to do any good at all. Commercial water sterilizers use jacketed tubes where the water flows past relatively close to the UV emitter.
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If they say it hasnt been proven that really is almost a confession that they know it won't work.
I recently saw a patent for a robotic disenfector, presumably thats what it does it automates the process.. But, Id still expect it to take a long time to do a big subway car.
Arrgh... what a mess..
I have a huge double bulb UV lamp that I have had for decades its very bright. But it is a black light, UVB which is not very good for disinfection, I am pretty sure. It may not even work at all. Nor is it good for tanning.
OTOH, UVA is good for tanning and okay for disinfection, although not as good as UVC.
I have a small handheld UVA lamp that I have used for a number of different things, microscopy, minerals, photography. Its a short wavelength lamp so you need to protect your eyes from it if you are using it for a long time.
I totally agree with you, when a disinfecting light is claimed to kill germs, IMHO they likely have to demonstrate effectiveness. And yes, water is disinfected by passing it through plates of glass where the light intensity is very high..
UV light does kill pathogens. Its one of the ways that municipalities disinfect water. So if it didnt work many of us would probably have cholera or something like that. We use it every day. Also, the Sun is why we aren't buried in germs. Exposure to sunlight kills a lot of germs.
I guess you didn't read the article. It clearly says the method of using UV to clean subway cars has not been scientifically proven. What else is there to say? You also have to realise that they intend to use the UV light during cleaning. Not during driving around so while the car is in service it will get dirty and people will transfer virusses. So in the end it is just a different way of disinfecting a subway car.
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UV light does kill pathogens. Its one of the ways that municipalities disinfect water. So if it didnt work many of us would probably have cholera or something like that. We use it every day. Also, the Sun is why we aren't buried in germs. Exposure to sunlight kills a lot of germs.
I guess you didn't read the article. It clearly says the method of using UV to clean subway cars has not been scientifically proven. What else is there to say? You also have to realise that they intend to use the UV light during cleaning. Not during driving around so while the car is in service it will get dirty and people will transfer virusses. So in the end it is just a different way of disinfecting a subway car.
You're overstating it as a total negative rather than a process with strong potential. UV-C is a proven disinfectant method that's been shown to be very effective against all sorts of things, including other coronaviruses. The only thing that's not proven is how effective it is on CV-19. And, of course, whether it's being applied correctly in this case. Note that it's very unhealthy to be in the same area as an operating UV-C lamp, so the method is not practical to use while the car is occupied.
Sunlight is also useful, but it takes a LOT longer than a germicidal lamp. Very little UV-C reaches the surface of the earth...most is blocked by the atmosphere. If it did, you'd have a lot more people with serious skin and eye conditions.
https://sites.nationalacademies.org/BasedOnScience/covid-19-does-ultraviolet-light-kill-the-coronavirus/index.htm
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UV light, besides giving plaque covered teeth a white and shiny appearance at nightclubs and retro disco parties 8)
keeps already sterilized surgery gear that way for long periods.
UV can only _suppress_ at best, any active pathogens lurking in filth, good luck killing anything long term
What's needed for serious train cleansing
(and bus, car, truck, tram, ferry, plane, jet, helicopter, horse buggy, canoe, dog sled, space shuttle, and rickshaw modes of travel)
is pressure hose down the trains inside and out with IPA
and Glen20, Windex, Mortein and elbow grease, to wipe out any stray mutations or blobs attempting escape spotted by UV.
Once dry and totally sterile, all commuters are only permitted to travel in full sized vacuum sealed prophylactic suits
with Scuba or Nasa Approved breathing gear, all tested and tagged at authorized outlets and kiosks before each trip.
= farewell corona local and internationally in 6 years or less > 'don't call us, we'll call you..' :D
The good news for lucky 'Working From Home' people is, you won't won't have to do any of that 'Stay Sealed, Save Lives' thing just yet.
But better prep up mentally and shop around for a good deal on all that gear on Ebay and Ali,
for when that cushy 'it can't/won't affect me..' ??? Working From Home gig dries up and blows away.
Come on guys, nothing lasts forever, including cushy job flexibility when the boss has to begin pruning wages and salaries,
and or consider a shut down till further notice,
or close down and get out while the getting's good :phew:
i.e. flog the boutique bike/s, hoarded test gear and previous job 'goodbye' gold (?!) watch now,
before they are worth less than a slab of 3 ply toilet paper :palm:
Disclaimer: if some unemployed bankrupt homeless 'down with big brudder and their corona b!tch' T-Shirted unshaved *err0rist group jacks a train
and threatens to rip open a commuters prophylactic suit, whilst streaming the proceedings to Youtube and Facebook,
things might get messy,
and other more secure sterilization options may have to be considered,
after they pay off the *err0rist group with back pay, forward pay, stfu pay
and new 'Have A Nice Day Sukkas' :) T-Shirts
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Seems to me the fall off of UV light intensity from any kind of bulb or tube makes them impractical for disinfecting most things. You'd probably need someone manually moving the light over every surface at a distance of just a few inches to do any good at all. Commercial water sterilizers use jacketed tubes where the water flows past relatively close to the UV emitter.
I read a study a while back where they tested with a 4' 32W UVC germicidal tube and found that it was effective at a distance of 8 feet with an exposure time of 30 minutes. This was not for Covid-19 as it was not around yet but for some other pathogens, a bacteria I think. These lamps have been used for many years to disinfect hospital facilities, I remember back when I was in school the shop and science classrooms had cabinets for the safety glasses that had a germicidal tube in it to sterilize the glasses between classes.
They're practical for disinfecting things but it takes time, it's not like you can just pass the light over the surface and have everything die. Also they produce quite large amounts of ozone and the UV rapidly degrades many polymers, fades dye, etc.
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If they say it hasnt been proven that really is almost a confession that they know it won't work.
BS. Science requires rigor. Science takes time. A lot of what is being "hedged" by experts these times is exactly due to the fact that science takes time and claiming something works before it is rigorously tested, published and then peer tested, repeated by many others, is dangerous. That is what Trump does.
When scientists say "We don't know", for a lot of things, it means, "We haven't got enough data, we haven't tested enough and what has been tested has not been peer reviewed. So we are not risking people's lives or their trust in science by prematurely coming out to say it works."
Normally these processes take years. Without proper funding decades. Accelerating it in a crisis to taking months is one thing, asking for the same to be done in a few weeks is just not going to happen.
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Scientist:
H0 = Our default state is it doesn't work but we're testing
H1 = We tested and we're confident within X limits it works
Politician:
H0 = It works
H1 = I told you so
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Medical experts now say coronavirus ‘does not spread easily’ via surfaces
https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/medical-experts-now-say-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-surfaces-c-1052650
In other news, Isopropyl prices plummet.
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The experts also said that meat prices would drop by around 30% due to an over supply and restaurants being closed. I went to town on a new barbecue with all the accessories and the meat prices didn't drop. I now feel like a silly sausage. :D ;D
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Meat prices definitely fell here. I'm getting bored of steak now :-DD
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The experts also said that meat prices would drop by around 30% due to an over supply and restaurants being closed. I went to town on a new barbecue with all the accessories and the meat prices didn't drop. I now feel like a silly sausage. :D ;D
We don't actually live in a "free market", no matter what we have been told. Prices are never allowed to drop under any circumstances... everyone from the central bank on down are pushing a 2% inflation target that the whole system depends on!
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Medical experts now say coronavirus ‘does not spread easily’ via surfaces
https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/medical-experts-now-say-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-surfaces-c-1052650
In other news, Isopropyl prices plummet.
I've been saying this all the time. There was no evidence of viable virus on surfaces, ever. The studies never tried infecting cell culture, only tried detecting the virus via the PCR test kits, which is totally bogus because it detects dead virus fragments just fine.
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Meat prices definitely fell here. I'm getting bored of steak now :-DD
There is usually a period of 2 or 3 weeks each spring when we can buy lamb at beef at half price in the local supermarkets. That didn't happen this year. I haven't seen any low meat prices, and now pork and chicken seem to be rising. I live near York.
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Asda are pretty much throwing it out here. :-//
I'm getting sirloins on last BB day for £1.20 after they were already reduced twice.
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Zoom meeting trolling.
Use your webcam/laptop cam to take a photo of you standing in your room behind where you normally have video meetings.
Set this as your meeting video background.
Freak out value +1.
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UV light can only kill what it shines upon for an adequate length of time. In NYC, recent cutbacks have left subway cars uncleaned because they don't have staff to clean them and because they now have problems with homeless people who have increased substantially in number due to COVID-19 sleeping in them. So even under the best of conditions UV lights might not shine everywhere, but under these conditions it would seem to be futile to expect UV lights to do the job. They should invest that money in restoring the previous level of staffing and more frequent cleaning.
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UV lights might not shine everywhere
Just needs to shine where you've going to be touching - coronavirus doesn't have legs or wings :)
(Obviously, assuming the UVC exposure would be sufficient where it does shine.)
It's a bit unfair that it might take very intensive effort to even barely affect this thing with light, when just a blink of an accidental laser reflection does for us!
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Use undoped mercury lamps which produce shorter wavelength UVC that make ozone, which can disinfect surfaces not exposed to the radiation.
Medical experts now say coronavirus ‘does not spread easily’ via surfaces
https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/medical-experts-now-say-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-surfaces-c-1052650
In other news, Isopropyl prices plummet.
I thought that was the case: that the main path of transmission is via the air. I wish people at work would focus more on social distancing, rather than cleaning. My workplace is generally low risk, but some departments are finding it more difficult than others. Some people are close friends outside of work and seem to be finding it difficult to keep apart. There seems to also be a difference between gender: women tend to forget and men are more inclined to consciously break the rules.
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Use undoped mercury lamps which produce shorter wavelength UVC that make ozone, which can disinfect surfaces not exposed to the radiation.
Medical experts now say coronavirus ‘does not spread easily’ via surfaces
https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/medical-experts-now-say-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-surfaces-c-1052650
In other news, Isopropyl prices plummet.
I thought that was the case: that the main path of transmission is via the air. I wish people at work would focus more on social distancing, rather than cleaning.
The article clearly states we should still clean our surfaces. What is the main path of transmission is highly sensitive to context. If people keep a distance then surfaces automatically become a more significant path of transmission. The real question then is: is transmission through surfaces a big enough problem? Given that the experts still say that cleaning surfaces is necessary it seems the answer to that question is 'yes'.
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It's probably well to remember that we are learning on the go, and making it up as we go along. Nothing wrong with that per se - as we find out more we can make better decisions. That can mean that earlier decisions, made with the benefit of what we knew then, may seem overly conservative or reckless based on what we've learned since.
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The article clearly states we should still clean our surfaces. What is the main path of transmission is highly sensitive to context. If people keep a distance then surfaces automatically become a more significant path of transmission. The real question then is: is transmission through surfaces a big enough problem? Given that the experts still say that cleaning surfaces is necessary it seems the answer to that question is 'yes'.
Of course, no different to regular cleaning of surfaces in places like gyms for example where people share equipment all the time.
That was common practice before the whole coronovirus thing, no surprise at all that general health advice on that isn't going to change.
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The experts also said that meat prices would drop by around 30% due to an over supply and restaurants being closed. I went to town on a new barbecue with all the accessories and the meat prices didn't drop. I now feel like a silly sausage. :D ;D
Ours were down for a while but prices on some meats have gone up lately. We had several cases of meat processing plants where most of the workforce, hundreds of people tested positive for Covid and in at least one case three of them died and the plant was shut down for a period. I haven't checked the prices on cows but they don't magically turn into steaks without a little help.
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The Kroger here limits purchase of fresh meats. Also, a lot of stuff has still not come back to normal stock levels. They did finally get some alcohol based hand cleaner in stock, which apparently comes from a local distillery, but the price is around $16 per liter.
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Use undoped mercury lamps which produce shorter wavelength UVC that make ozone, which can disinfect surfaces not exposed to the radiation.
Medical experts now say coronavirus ‘does not spread easily’ via surfaces
https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/medical-experts-now-say-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-surfaces-c-1052650
In other news, Isopropyl prices plummet.
I thought that was the case: that the main path of transmission is via the air. I wish people at work would focus more on social distancing, rather than cleaning.
The article clearly states we should still clean our surfaces. What is the main path of transmission is highly sensitive to context. If people keep a distance then surfaces automatically become a more significant path of transmission. The real question then is: is transmission through surfaces a big enough problem? Given that the experts still say that cleaning surfaces is necessary it seems the answer to that question is 'yes'.
Yes cleanliness is important, but what bothers me is when people spend time cleaning tools someone else has used, or worry about sharing stationary, only to talk with one another face-to-face, at much less than 2m distance, especialy when it could be easily avoided. I know there's a risk of getting infected by lending an infected person my screwdriver, then using it myself, without washing it first, but it's only significant if I touch my eyes, mouth, or pick my nose etc. but I have a much higher risk of getting infected talking to them, at too closer distance.
I know we have to get the job done, whist minimising risk, which will always be greater than zero, and that some tasks may take longer, but it's important people are aware of which activities pose the greater risk and prioritise accordingly.
People who are obviously close friends should be moved to different shifts. I know that might be counterproductive work-wise, as friends might work better together, but cutting the risk of spread is more important at the moment. There are also instances of two or more sharing an office, when there are spare offices available. I asked the boss about this and he said the people felt as though they could share an office, whilst maintaining social distancing, but I'm cynical. I think it would be better to force people to have separate offices, whenever possible. The virus can still spread to someone >2m away, so separate offices makes sense. We've been told that if one person in the department is infected, the rest of the team don't need to self-isolate or get tested, as the managers think the current measures are effective, but I know it's impractical for them to be followed all the time, so close colleagues of an infected person should self-isolate, until they test negative. If someone who I work with is infected, I will self-isolate, get tested and only return to work, if it's negative. I don't care whether it's company policy or not.
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I've caught that too. Seems suspicious to me. The trains looked like New York subway carts to me. A quick Google confirms it:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/20/21265221/nyc-mta-ultraviolet-light-uvc-coronavirus-disinfect-puro-pictures (https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/20/21265221/nyc-mta-ultraviolet-light-uvc-coronavirus-disinfect-puro-pictures)
If you read the article more carefully it doesn't make much sense. It sounds like a good money sink to me to cash in on the hype. The effect hasn't been scientifically proved and it won't help to prevent human-to-human transmission of virusses much.
Yes, it was a Page ago... sorry!!...
Thanks for that addition. Yea, whether U.V. is an aid or not, obviously this article has nothing to do with "Person-to-person" transmission per se'... Except in a way it IS! Dave said on the next page of this discussion, that it seems that contact with surfaces may not be as much of a problem. I disagree. Was proven to 'live' on surfaces from 3 to 5 days. Anyway... IF a surface is infected, and someone else touches that surface in the next train-load of passengers, then it's going to be transferred !!
They KEEP talking about people 'washing-their-hands' at home. This is because of the number of things we take for granted, when outside. A few steps with a banister rail. Countless door knobs/handles. Elevator push-buttons. Shopping carts, etc etc. It's NOT just about shaking hands, hugs & kisses!! ALL these devices & more need cleaning, on top of the actual 'person to person' stuff.
If 'U.V.' is another proverbial 'Iron In The Fire', then why not use it also! ???
Then again... 'electro detective' s immediate comment after this reply of yours, unfortunately reminded me AGAIN (embarrassingly) how some people are just so NEGATIVE about EVERYTHING! What is it that makes that guy so ANGRY in life?? There are SO many constructive ways in life, to participate & share knowledge, and help, on countless facets. I think knowing when you die changes a lot!!! 8)
In the end... There are 'Aussies', and there are 'Aussies'. Don't tar us all with the same brush! :-+
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Seems that a "change" in the thinking/guidance regarding SARS-CoV-2 surface spread story was a misinterpretation of the US CDC changing some text on their site pages https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/22/861193550/advice-on-surface-spread-of-covid-19-has-not-changed-cdc-says. (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/22/861193550/advice-on-surface-spread-of-covid-19-has-not-changed-cdc-says.)
They (the CDC) says that they have not changed their position on the ways that SARS-CoV-2 can be spread https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html)
I think it has always been the case that the belief has been that if you touch, with your hand for example, a surface containing sufficient SARS-CoV-2 AND then transfer it to your nose/mouth/eyes, by touching your nose/mouth/eyes, you can get infected.
I don't remember anyone saying or providing evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 can easily penetrate intact skin. Of course if you have a nice fresh cut on your skin, I would expect any self-respecting virus to infect upon having a free ride into your blood stream - but that is a different story.
As far as what I have read, the belief remains that the primary way of spread is through expelled droplets - like from a cough or a sneeze (usually distinguished from truly being airborne).
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Seems that a "change" in the thinking/guidance regarding SARS-CoV-2 surface spread story was a misinterpretation of the US CDC changing some text on their site pages https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/22/861193550/advice-on-surface-spread-of-covid-19-has-not-changed-cdc-says. (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/22/861193550/advice-on-surface-spread-of-covid-19-has-not-changed-cdc-says.)
They (the CDC) says that they have not changed their position on the ways that SARS-CoV-2 can be spread https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html)
I think it has always been the case that the belief has been that if you touch, with your hand for example, a surface containing sufficient SARS-CoV-2 AND then transfer it to your nose/mouth/eyes, by touching your nose/mouth/eyes, you can get infected.
I don't remember anyone saying or providing evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 can easily penetrate intact skin. Of course if you have a nice fresh cut on your skin, I would expect any self-respecting virus to infect upon having a free ride into your blood stream - but that is a different story.
As far as what I have read, the belief remains that the primary way of spread is through expelled droplets - like from a cough or a sneeze (usually distinguished from truly being airborne).
In relation to your sentence that I made Bold, above... I have never talked about 'Skin' transfer, but the fact that most people end up wiping/moving their hands/fingers to their face/nose/mouth at some stage, and there-in lies the problem.
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Seems that a "change" in the thinking/guidance regarding SARS-CoV-2 surface spread story was a misinterpretation of the US CDC changing some text on their site pages https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/22/861193550/advice-on-surface-spread-of-covid-19-has-not-changed-cdc-says. (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/22/861193550/advice-on-surface-spread-of-covid-19-has-not-changed-cdc-says.)
They (the CDC) says that they have not changed their position on the ways that SARS-CoV-2 can be spread https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html)
I think it has always been the case that the belief has been that if you touch, with your hand for example, a surface containing sufficient SARS-CoV-2 AND then transfer it to your nose/mouth/eyes, by touching your nose/mouth/eyes, you can get infected.
I don't remember anyone saying or providing evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 can easily penetrate intact skin. Of course if you have a nice fresh cut on your skin, I would expect any self-respecting virus to infect upon having a free ride into your blood stream - but that is a different story.
As far as what I have read, the belief remains that the primary way of spread is through expelled droplets - like from a cough or a sneeze (usually distinguished from truly being airborne).
In relation to your sentence that I made Bold, above... I have never talked about 'Skin' transfer, but the fact that most people end up wiping/moving their hands/fingers to their face/nose/mouth at some stage, and there-in lies the problem.
I agree with you and did not think that you (or anyone) had suggested a trans-cutaneous infection route.
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I'm okay with whatever needs to be done to keep the most people alive, (forcing people to wear masks/gloves, spacing, and even screwing the economy) but the media's reaction to this, as well as the public's, has been abysmal. I saw a car in a supermarket parking lot that was packed liked a sardine can with groceries, so much so that I didn't even realize there was someone IN the car before I was finished taking a picture. Not to mention the toilet paper, which I guess is just people being stupid because they're scared. What I don't understand is why the media has to scare the crap out of everybody, if there's no cure. If they thought it would suddenly make everyone aware and conscious, and super meticulous at containing the disease, than they were wrong.
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The biggest disappointment for me has been how incredibly politicized this has been. I don't know about other nations but in the USA it has become a split right down the party lines. At the beginning I thought at least one good aspect of the pandemic is that we could put aside politics for a while and all work together with a common goal against a common threat, I mean liberal, conservative and everything in between, I'd have thought we would all like to stay alive and healthy and keep our older relatives alive and healthy but apparently not. It's fine to disagree on how to handle it but it should not be a political matter.
It has also shown how irrational and self centered the average person is, the hoarding is just one symptom of that. The media has not impressed me either, in the eternal quest for ratings they have missed no opportunity to stir people up, if they're not stirring up fear of infection they're stirring up fear of big evil government taking away our rights.
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The media has not impressed me either, in the eternal quest for ratings they have missed no opportunity to stir people up, if they're not stirring up fear of infection they're stirring up fear of big evil government taking away our rights.
Yeah, our media has been having a field day trying to misinterpret and make the President look bad. I expect any human to eventually break down when faced with that kind of scrutiny and pressure 8 hours a day for weeks on end.
But the media isn't trying to scare us away from big government. Are you kidding? They're for big government. Government that will take care of everyone.
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The media has not impressed me either, in the eternal quest for ratings they have missed no opportunity to stir people up, if they're not stirring up fear of infection they're stirring up fear of big evil government taking away our rights.
Yeah, our media has been having a field day trying to misinterpret and make the President look bad. I expect any human to eventually break down when faced with that kind of scrutiny and pressure 8 hours a day for weeks on end.
But the media isn't trying to scare us away from big government. Are you kidding? They're for big government. Government that will take care of everyone.
That reply was 90% political opinion. Wrong forum for that. Keep it neutral or don't say it at all.
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The Politicization of this Catastrophe here in Switzerland was not as bad as in the US, especially in the start it seemed to be a mutual effort between all parties involved and no real finger pointing.
Only in the recent few weeks as the Issue got better it has started to evolve into a fight as to how to proceed and go back to normal.
I am surprised how smooth things went on the Official level here TBH,... Legacy Media however did not disappoint to disappoint (especially the typical tabloids) thus I only took Official Information somewhat serious anyways.
Personally this Information only took me to be a bit more careful with hygiene and sorroundings, everything else was the same and can't see the harm in that.
That said and looking at US Media what I do find appalling is the absolute lack of empathy now towards young and middle aged people who just had their existences destroyed or future massively hampered. Sure we have to protect the elderly and find solutions, but the portrayal of those wanting to go back to work as dumb rednecks to be put on pillory as I've observed Media/Social Media leaves me without words.
I am afraid to look at the statistics of suicide next few months but I guess who gives a shit about young peoples families as long as you can smear the opposition. :rant:
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Unless I'm 'Dumb'.... (There's a fish-line & hook for some people! hahaha!!)...
UNTIL there is a 'Vaccine', how can we relax rules, and start going "back to normal" ??
OK, we are reducing the possibilities of transmission, due to the actions we(most!) are taking, but beyond that,
what am I missing about 'relaxations' eventually leading to a major 2nd wave, or 3rd!! due to complacency! ??
As an example, just the other day, some, (don't know who, or in what area) Church in Germany decided to re-
open their doors to the masses, and now 40 of them are infected!! What is it they don't understand???
The often quoted, "for the duration", must/should mean "when there's a vaccine"
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It was a Baptist church, not far from here. They claim to have held safe distance, but didn't wear face masks and were singing a lot. Meanwhile over 100 people were tested positive.
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That said and looking at US Media what I do find appalling is the absolute lack of empathy now towards young and middle aged people who just had their existences destroyed or future massively hampered. Sure we have to protect the elderly and find solutions, but the portrayal of those wanting to go back to work as dumb rednecks to be put on pillory as I've observed Media/Social Media leaves me without words.
It depends on how people protest. If they keep a safe distance it is OK but being close and touching eachother on purpose -> enter trumb redneck territory.
And when it comes to existences being destroyed: that is the system without social security they voted for in the US. And yet; if you are able and sound of mind you can always find something or somewhere else to make money. A pandemic offers lots of new businiess opportunities which need workforce.
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It was a Baptist church, not far from here. They claim to have held safe distance, but didn't wear face masks and were singing a lot. Meanwhile over 100 people were tested positive.
I have a hard time understanding the church thing. I won't claim to be any sort of expert on theological matters but I thought most of the mainstream gods people believe in are supposed to be omnipotent and ever-present. That being the case, I don't really grasp the dire importance of having everyone return to a specific building as soon as possible. Surely people can worship at home and sermons or whatever can be broadcast via various internet mediums? Allowing dozens or hundreds of people to gather in the same building seems like an exceptionally high risk activity with very little benefit. Sure there is the social/community aspect but how is that fundamentally different than gathering at a pub? :-//
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For the religious their core values include religion. They need it just like their family. My grandparents were Catholics until the day they died and they went to church at least once a day. A priest was with my grandmother for months until she died. You don't have to understand it, just understand they NEED it. They don't see it as optional. I'm surprised they stayed closed as long as they did.
The shutdowns were never about keeping people from getting sick. It was to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. Right now, in the US, job done. After that you start opening up with enough restrictions to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. People get annoyed when they're not seeing the apocalypse they've been told about. They get annoyed when they see places opening that also aren't all of a sudden having thousands dead in the street. If you don't get it, that's ok, but surely you can understand they don't see the threat.
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It was a Baptist church, not far from here. They claim to have held safe distance, but didn't wear face masks and were singing a lot. Meanwhile over 100 people were tested positive.
I have a hard time understanding the church thing. I won't claim to be any sort of expert on theological matters but I thought most of the mainstream gods people believe in are supposed to be omnipotent and ever-present. That being the case, I don't really grasp the dire importance of having everyone return to a specific building as soon as possible. Surely people can worship at home and sermons or whatever can be broadcast via various internet mediums? Allowing dozens or hundreds of people to gather in the same building seems like an exceptionally high risk activity with very little benefit. Sure there is the social/community aspect but how is that fundamentally different than gathering at a pub? :-//
The act of coming together in communion is deeply ingrained in all religion. It's an act of reassurance, beneficial for the community on a social level. It is comforting for people especially in a crisis, to be with other people who share the same value system. Unfortunately, many don't realize that the threat is quite real and that our understanding of dangerous behavior is limited. It appears now that being in the same room and singing loudly transmits the virus quite efficiently, even if you keep a 1.5m distance and wash your hands. Astonishing is the rate of spread, though. The transmission chains are not completely understood yet (this will be excellent study material), but it appears that a single spreader sparked this whole cluster.
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Unless I'm 'Dumb'.... (There's a fish-line & hook for some people! hahaha!!)...
UNTIL there is a 'Vaccine', how can we relax rules, and start going "back to normal" ??
OK, we are reducing the possibilities of transmission, due to the actions we(most!) are taking, but beyond that,
what am I missing about 'relaxations' eventually leading to a major 2nd wave, or 3rd!! due to complacency! ??
As an example, just the other day, some, (don't know who, or in what area) Church in Germany decided to re-
open their doors to the masses, and now 40 of them are infected!! What is it they don't understand???
The often quoted, "for the duration", must/should mean "when there's a vaccine"
The idea is to use contact tracing, which is nothing new and has been used to control infections diseases in the past such as polio and HIV. If someone develops symptoms of COVID-19, the first thing they need to do is self-isolate, until they're tested. If the test comes back positive, everyone they've had contact with needs to be traced, contacted and tested and those who test positive need to do the same. Done well, this should break the chain of transmission by only isolating those who are, or stand a high chance, of being infected, rather than everyone.
Unfortunately contact tracing requires large numbers of trained professionals to access the level of risk of the contact, thus who's worth contacting and testing. There was no way it could have been implemented in places such as the UK a couple of months ago, when the number of cases vastly exceeded test and trace capacity. Some people are also concerned about privacy, not just from tools such as the contact tracing app, but having what can be only described as detectives tracking them. Fortunately it will work, as long as most cooperate. Hopefully governments have being building test capacity and training contact tracers during lockdown, so it can be eased without a second wave.
I have mixed feelings about the UK. I'm confident the NHS will be able to deal with a second wave, but I'm not convinced enough has been invested in contact tracing and testing. I think we'll need some social distancing measures in place for some time yet.
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It was a Baptist church, not far from here. They claim to have held safe distance, but didn't wear face masks and were singing a lot. Meanwhile over 100 people were tested positive.
I have a hard time understanding the church thing. I won't claim to be any sort of expert on theological matters but I thought most of the mainstream gods people believe in are supposed to be omnipotent and ever-present. That being the case, I don't really grasp the dire importance of having everyone return to a specific building as soon as possible. Surely people can worship at home and sermons or whatever can be broadcast via various internet mediums? Allowing dozens or hundreds of people to gather in the same building seems like an exceptionally high risk activity with very little benefit. Sure there is the social/community aspect but how is that fundamentally different than gathering at a pub? :-//
Wherever people connect up with their support networks, and friends, there often is no online alternative, they are very important for people. People are just social animals, we start going crazy without human contact.
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That said and looking at US Media what I do find appalling is the absolute lack of empathy now towards young and middle aged people who just had their existences destroyed or future massively hampered. Sure we have to protect the elderly and find solutions, but the portrayal of those wanting to go back to work as dumb rednecks to be put on pillory as I've observed Media/Social Media leaves me without words.
It depends on how people protest. If they keep a safe distance it is OK but being close and touching eachother on purpose -> enter trumb redneck territory.
And when it comes to existences being destroyed: that is the system without social security they voted for in the US. And yet; if you are able and sound of mind you can always find something or somewhere else to make money. A pandemic offers lots of new businiess opportunities which need workforce.
1. It is easy to point at the extremists to portray a bad Image. This is something people profusely Ideological do all the time because it is easier than arguing and thus should never be taken without a big grain of salt.
2. Not really, I still do not get why people believe the US has absolutely no security net. That is simply not correct.
But this is besides the point anyways as this Problem of future existences threatened also extends to countries with very big security nets - such as Germany.
Many, many people will lose their Job or their businesses and future prospects and no, not everyone is happy with pity State handouts in the long term. Id argue very very few people are happy with that.
People want Careers, Families and maybe even some Property. I do not think the state can replace these desires, even if some people are very adamant in trying to prove that otherwise - and objectively failing.
3. Sure, Crisis also brings Opportunity for some.
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People want Careers, Families and maybe even some Property. I do not think the state can replace these desires, even if some people are very adamant in trying to prove that otherwise - and objectively failing.
You have to put some numbers on it. For example: the economy of Germany is expected to shrink by 6.6% in 2020. That means that 93.4% of the businesses are still running. Other countries show similar numbers and the economic contraction is on par to that of credit-crunch of 2008. All in all the impact of the Covid19 pandemic is not the economic catastrophy people think it is. A few sectors like airlines, restaurants/bars are hit hard but others can continue. Since public transport is a no-go for many there is a boom in car sales around the corner.
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People want Careers, Families and maybe even some Property. I do not think the state can replace these desires, even if some people are very adamant in trying to prove that otherwise - and objectively failing.
You have to put some numbers on it. For example: the economy of Germany is expected to shrink by 6.6% in 2020. That means that 93.4% of the businesses are still running. Other countries show similar numbers and the economic contraction is on par to that of credit-crunch of 2008. All in all the impact of the Covid19 pandemic is not the economic catastrophy people think it is. A few sectors like airlines, restaurants/bars are hit hard but others can continue. Since public transport is a no-go for many there is a boom in car sales around the corner.
Hmmm..., I am always careful with predictions... I still remember the absolute mess and struggle for people in 2008-9+years after. I lived in Spain back then as well and there it really was a shitshow for young people. I guess this makes me take a bit more emotional approach than only looking at the numbers. I am really worried.
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Just a few points:
Regarding the church: perhaps it was too early to reopen, but at least the contact tracing and tescting capacity is now good enough to link the outbreak to the church. If the desease isn't too widespread, then clusters can be isolated by only locking down small towns or just closing places, where there's a high concentration of cases. If this is just an isolated outbreak, then just close the local churches, rather than all of them.
One of the myths about COVID-19 is it only affects old people and those with pre-existing health problems. Whilst it's true, the mortality rate is much higher for older people, a lot of relatively young and healthy people become very sick and will die without medical attention. At the moment one of my colleague's daughers is very ill in hospital with pnumonia due to COVID-19, at the young age of 21. The data we have gives an infection mortality rate of around 1%, but this in places with good universal heathcare such as China: without medical attention it could easilly be around five times that. Other deases don't stop because of the pandemic. If hospitals are overwhelmed, then plenty of others with easilly treatable illness will die. At the very least, it's important to keep the rate of infections below the healthcare capacity.
Yes there are people who will make more money from the pandemic, making gloves, masks, UVC lamps etc. and there will be those who will have saved money, as they continiued to work, but not had the same opportunity to spend, since all the resturaunts and bars have been closed. Hopefully when everything finally does open back up again, those who have profited and saved will spend more, stimulating the recovery. Unfortunately since economies are linked internationally, the impact of local governments' decisions will depend on what happens to the rest of the world.
Interestinly it seems that the pandemic itself will damage the economy, possibly more than any lockdown, if nothing is done. A study into the 1918 pandemic showed that cities which reacted earlier and had longer restrictions, recovered more quickly economically, than those which did less. Yes I accept there are flaws in the study: low frequency data, the cities weren't comparable with one another and things are different now, as back then the economy was less focused on services, than it is to day, but we should always learn from history and the negative effects of the pandemic itself shouldn't be ignored.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing)
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Just a few points:
Regarding the church: perhaps it was too early to reopen, but at least the contact tracing and tescting capacity is now good enough to link the outbreak to the church. If the desease isn't too widespread, then clusters can be isolated by only locking down small towns or just closing places, where there's a high concentration of cases. If this is just an isolated outbreak, then just close the local churches, rather than all of them.
One of the myths about COVID-19 is it only affects old people and those with pre-existing health problems. Whilst it's true, the mortality rate is much higher for older people, a lot of relatively young and healthy people become very sick and will die without medical attention. At the moment one of my colleague's daughers is very ill in hospital with pnumonia due to COVID-19, at the young age of 21. The data we have gives an infection mortality rate of around 1%, but this in places with good universal heathcare such as China: without medical attention it could easilly be around five times that. Other deases don't stop because of the pandemic. If hospitals are overwhelmed, then plenty of others with easilly treatable illness will die. At the very least, it's important to keep the rate of infections below the healthcare capacity.
Yes there are people who will make more money from the pandemic, making gloves, masks, UVC lamps etc. and there will be those who will have saved money, as they continiued to work, but not had the same opportunity to spend, since all the resturaunts and bars have been closed. Hopefully when everything finally does open back up again, those who have profited and saved will spend more, stimulating the recovery. Unfortunately since economies are linked internationally, the impact of local governments' decisions will depend on what happens to the rest of the world.
Interestinly it seems that the pandemic itself will damage the economy, possibly more than any lockdown, if nothing is done. A study into the 1918 pandemic showed that cities which reacted earlier and had longer restrictions, recovered more quickly economically, than those which did less. Yes I accept there are flaws in the study: low frequency data, the cities weren't comparable with one another and things are different now, as back then the economy was less focused on services, than it is to day, but we should always learn from history and the negative effects of the pandemic itself shouldn't be ignored.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing)
It seems pretty clear that population density matters a lot - out in the countryside, the virus has less opportunity to spread than in dense urban environments.
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Anyone know how this electrostatically applied disinfectant works?
Train firm using disinfectant which ‘will kill coronavirus for up to 30 days’
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/05/26/train-firm-using-disinfectant-which-will-kill-coronavirus-for-up-to-30-days/ (https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/05/26/train-firm-using-disinfectant-which-will-kill-coronavirus-for-up-to-30-days/)
How likely is it to be quickly worn off frequently handled surfaces such as grab rails etc?
If it is effective for such a long period why isn't it more widely used in hospitals, catering kitchens etc? Is it because there might be some health risk due to exposure to agents which are biologically active for prolonged periods?
It also talks about using anti-viral cleaning products that protect surfaces for 24 hours. Is this the norm for typical household cleaners (until rinsed off perhaps) or are they referring to specialized long lasting products?
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That quote was of the title, which itself was quoting a phrase. More complete quote, from the article:
Britain’s largest rail franchise is using disinfectant which it claims will kill coronavirus on surfaces for up to 30 days.
Keywords: "claims", and especially "up to"
Which leaves a lot of wiggle room in real-world applications. If it fails after 2 days for whatever reason, they've still met their claim.
In any case, the implication is that this is something fairly new. A health-care or food setting is going to have to wait for safety certifications before using it.
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You have to put some numbers on it. For example: the economy of Germany is expected to shrink by 6.6% in 2020. That means that 93.4% of the businesses are still running. Other countries show similar numbers and the economic contraction is on par to that of credit-crunch of 2008. All in all the impact of the Covid19 pandemic is not the economic catastrophy people think it is. A few sectors like airlines, restaurants/bars are hit hard but others can continue. Since public transport is a no-go for many there is a boom in car sales around the corner.
The economy isn't a rational state machine, though. Small things can have a huge impact, even if it's ridiculous in every way.
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This is why the UK coronavirus app, and similar that use a centralised database, are going to fail:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/26/chinese-city-plans-to-turn-coronavirus-app-into-permanent-health-tracker (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/26/chinese-city-plans-to-turn-coronavirus-app-into-permanent-health-tracker)
Fact is, we don't trust out PTB. They turned RIPA from something that would only be used in direst circumstances to combat terrorists into something the local council uses to make sure parents aren't cheating in placing kids at school. And the proof this weekend that out elite government see us as expendable fallguys only reinforces that inkling that once they have a toe in the door they'll wedge it wide open.
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That quote was of the title, which itself was quoting a phrase. More complete quote, from the article:
Britain’s largest rail franchise is using disinfectant which it claims will kill coronavirus on surfaces for up to 30 days.
Keywords: "claims", and especially "up to"
Which leaves a lot of wiggle room in real-world applications. If it fails after 2 days for whatever reason, they've still met their claim.
In any case, the implication is that this is something fairly new. A health-care or food setting is going to have to wait for safety certifications before using it.
This claim "for up to 30 days", intrigued me. Intuitively, if it is going to do that it means it has to persist in the environment for 30 days and at an effective concentration.
The GTA quote has been carried by a number of news outlets and, as many have noticed, there is precious little about what the product is. I found one article that added, "...that sticks to surfaces..." https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-05-26/new-viruscide-being-used-by-govia-thameslink-to-kill-coronavirus-on-surfaces/ (https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-05-26/new-viruscide-being-used-by-govia-thameslink-to-kill-coronavirus-on-surfaces/) . OK, I am starting to get an idea of how this could work - imagine some chewing gum under the the table that had a whole lot of virucide in it that that does not evaporate readily - is it something like that?
Then I read this article https://www.fox13news.com/news/cleaning-product-continues-killing-novel-coronavirus-30-days-after-application-company-claims (https://www.fox13news.com/news/cleaning-product-continues-killing-novel-coronavirus-30-days-after-application-company-claims) - not about the GTA but a US Port (Tampa, Florida..cruise ships, that kind of thing)..... and they showed a bottle of the stuff and the name is in thee article, along with the 30-day claim...mPale aha, getting closer.
So I go to the product site http://www.mpactusa.com/ (http://www.mpactusa.com/) and I see this message:
Due to significant increased web traffic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and residual web searches for our mPact™ Antimicrobial System, we have disabled our website temporarily. Please contact our headquarters for further inquiries regarding mPerial™ + mPale™ products.
ok, ok, settle down, let's not assume quackery, if it is a commercial product in the US, we should be able to find it with (or without) certifications and with an associated MSDS.
AT this point, I don't know where the 30-day claim appears or what evidence is cited if it does appear.
Here is an MSDS for the product http://www.cms-clean.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/mPale-MSDS-Sheets.pdf (http://www.cms-clean.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/mPale-MSDS-Sheets.pdf)
Here is a labeling revision for the EPA (from last year) https://www3.epa.gov/pesticides/chem_search/ppls/083129-00001-20190312.pdf (https://www3.epa.gov/pesticides/chem_search/ppls/083129-00001-20190312.pdf)
The label does clearly tout durability but I still don't see a written 30-day claim. Note, however, that in the video, someone is identified, by name, as being from the company.
Adding the name to the search, I find another article https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/2020/03/10/kill-coronavirus-with-microscopic-spikes-port-tampa-bay-says-yes/ (https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/2020/03/10/kill-coronavirus-with-microscopic-spikes-port-tampa-bay-says-yes/) where the mode of action is described:
When mPact’s antimicrobial treatment, known as mPale, is applied to a disinfected surface and is allowed to dry, the company says, it leaves a thin film of molecules that have a unique spiked structure and a positive electrical charge. Those microscopic spikes do two things, mPact says.
First, they bond with virtually any surface, though they are much too small to be seen or felt by human touch. Second, they attract bacteria, viruses, mold and fungi, which carry an opposite negative charge, into physical contact. On contact, the spikes punch through the cell walls of the microbes.
“It punctures the membrane," Evans said. "It does not allow it to attach to a host. It does not allow it to propagate. It’s thinking about disinfection in a different way.”
Then, I see it!
“It’s absolutely safe,” Evans said. “It stays on for 30 days at the nano level. You can’t see it. You can’t feel it. It’s not something you can touch, but it continues to kill for 30 days. ... It’s a very effective disinfectant."
...and also...
Three weeks ago, mPact sent its product to a German lab, which Evans said determined that it’s effective in eliminating 99.99 percent of the new coronavirus, known as COVID-19, which is short for “coronavirus disease 2019.”
So, I guess some data does exists for the claim, but I am reserving comment until I can see those data (i.e., somebody who knows more than me evaluates those data).
The article also notes that the product is not on the EPA list of "Coronavirus" killers, to which the response was:
The company’s products are not on a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency list of antimicrobial products for use against the new coronavirus, but Evans said the company was on a call Monday with the U.S. Commerce Department, which he said was interested in getting the company in touch with a coronavirus task force that includes EPA officials.
OK, that exceeds my interest in the matter and I apologize if I got something wrong.
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On contact, the spikes punch through the cell walls of the microbes.
I guess you wouldn't want to breathe in too much of it then. I guess it must be pretty safe given that apparently it was used at the temporary Nightingale hospital in London.
There is at least one other contender however which can last even longer:
[urlhttps://www.extremetech.com/extreme/309865-new-disinfectant-can-kill-coronavirus-on-surfaces-for-90-days][/url]
MAP-1 is a spray that coats and evaporates on surfaces, but it’s much more advanced than bleach or alcohol. The spray carries millions of polymer nanocapsules that adhere to surfaces and remain there after the carrier liquid has dried. These non-toxic capsules contain a disinfectant that remains in suspension until touched. The heat from a hand or moisture activates the capsules, releasing disinfectant onto the surface.
They claim you'll be able buy it yourself soon; I wonder how long it takes to get approval for such novel new anti-bacterial/virus products and how rigorous the process is? Anything dangerous to bacteria and virus particles probably isn't good for human cells either.
Germagic will begin selling MAP-1 directly to consumers in 50-200ml bottles soon. The company says those will cost between $9 and $32.
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OK, that exceeds my interest in the matter and I apologize if I got something wrong.
It's good that someone has the stamina to do this - most can't be bothered to follow it that far (including myself for most things). It is the reason marketing claims for products (especially in health) often run-away unchecked, because few can really go down the rabbithole, and those that do aren't always listened to. Your time and effort is appreciated :-+
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[...] So I go to the product site http://www.mpactusa.com/ (http://www.mpactusa.com/) and I see this message:
Due to significant increased web traffic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and residual web searches for our mPact™ Antimicrobial System, we have disabled our website temporarily. Please contact our headquarters for further inquiries regarding mPerial™ + mPale™ products.
[...]
You can run, but you can't hide...
https://web.archive.org/web/20190812125109/http://www.mpactusa.com/ (https://web.archive.org/web/20190812125109/http://www.mpactusa.com/)
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The act of coming together in communion is deeply ingrained in all religion. It's an act of reassurance, beneficial for the community on a social level. It is comforting for people especially in a crisis, to be with other people who share the same value system. Unfortunately, many don't realize that the threat is quite real and that our understanding of dangerous behavior is limited. It appears now that being in the same room and singing loudly transmits the virus quite efficiently, even if you keep a 1.5m distance and wash your hands. Astonishing is the rate of spread, though. The transmission chains are not completely understood yet (this will be excellent study material), but it appears that a single spreader sparked this whole cluster.
I can absolutely understand the desire to get together with a group of people one is accustomed to getting together with, I mean even as an introvert I'd like to go out to a pub and meet up with some friends for a beer. I don't see it as an essential activity though, I'm flexible and adaptable, I can find other ways to maintain social connections during a period of inconvenience that while much longer than I had anticipated, is still a temporary situation.
I think the people who expect to see bodies stacking up in the streets are the same people who lap up conspiracy theories when they don't see recognizable remains of an airplane that has slammed directly into something at 400mph having seen pictures of other crashes that could be described as very hard landings. They don't understand math, and cannot make the connection between the numbers and the physical world. There are a bit under 20,000 cities/towns/villages in the USA, for 100,000 deaths that's an average of only 5 per town, even if a million die, I suspect that most of us will not personally know one of them closely.
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On the economy, at least in the UK with the current government, the losses and risks will be nationalised in bailouts, austerity and taxes while the profits gained switching the economy back on will be privatised and quickly off-shored to tax havens.
You gotta keep the rich rich so they can filter away their cash and not have to do "trickle down economics" at all.
Read recently, no evidence that the billionaires of the USA have already netted a 450 billion profit since the pandemic started. That's more than $1000 per head of US population.
Again, gotta keep the rich, rich and the plebs knowing their place.
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On the economy, at least in the UK with the current government, the losses and risks will be nationalised in bailouts, austerity and taxes while the profits gained switching the economy back on will be privatised and quickly off-shored to tax havens.
You gotta keep the rich rich so they can filter away their cash and not have to do "trickle down economics" at all.
Read recently, no evidence that the billionaires of the USA have already netted a 450 billion profit since the pandemic started. That's more than $1000 per head of US population.
Again, gotta keep the rich, rich and the plebs knowing their place.
Not really news, right? - sadly. The good news is that the poor today are generally much richer than the poor of yesteryear...
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It seems pretty clear that population density matters a lot - out in the countryside, the virus has less opportunity to spread than in dense urban environments.
Population density probably makes a difference, but I think how close knit the community is matters too. If most people in a village know one another and regularly meet in one place such as a pub or church, then it guarantees spread. On the other hand, in a more densely populated commuter town few people may even know their neighbours and if they mostly drive to work in the neighbouring large town, rather than use public transport there might be less spread. I think culture and lifestyle matter as well as population density.
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It seems pretty clear that population density matters a lot - out in the countryside, the virus has less opportunity to spread than in dense urban environments.
Population density probably makes a difference, but I think how close knit the community is matters too. If most people in a village know one another and regularly meet in one place such as a pub or church, then it guarantees spread. On the other hand, in a more densely populated commuter town few people may even know their neighbours and if they mostly drive to work in the neighbouring large town, rather than use public transport there might be less spread. I think culture and lifestyle matter as well as population density.
The progress of Covid19 in the Netherlands seems to underline that. Less densily populated areas with a lot of church visitors and close communities got hit relatively hard. Now Covid19 is on the rise in the bigger cities.
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A Columbian firm have developed a cardboard based hospital bed that doubles as a coffin.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/colombia-coronavirus-cardboard-hospital-beds-coffins (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/colombia-coronavirus-cardboard-hospital-beds-coffins)
Here in the US the virus is just starting to hit many parts of the country, while places like where I live new cases are now declining a lot, making the overall trend for the US deceptive because in many areas the deaths are rising, in some of them substantially, but here they are falling so much it makes it look like the country has stabilized - which isnt true if you start looking at states and county level.
This is only because people have been staying indoors a lot. Its still very quiet here, with people not going to church or bars etc. Small groups I think are allowed to meet now but I dont think many are.
However, these seems to be some kind of group that drives around in their cars all at once, maybe a couple of dozen of them - they all have SUVs and pickup trucks. -lots and lots of people honking their horns. Its probably good for their sanity, people do have to get out and do something social, even if they remain in cars.
I dont think we are at the Mad Max stage just yet.
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However, these seems to be some kind of group that drives around in their cars all at once, maybe a couple of dozen of them - they all have SUVs and pickup trucks. -lots and lots of people honking their horns. Its probably good for their sanity, people do have to get out and do something social, even if they remain in cars.
That sure wouldn't be good for my sanity as a bystander. There are few things I find more annoying than blaring car horns, I think it ought to be illegal to sound one outside of an emergency or a situation where you need to get someone's attention. Thankfully they're rarely used around here but in some parts of the country people seem to honk constantly, it's crazy.
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I find it appalling that their are, (was expected though!), both Religious factions, as well as 'Rights'
activists ETC!, that still talk about their 'Rights', for what ever reason/law, to do what they 'want'
without prejudice or judgement, but they are still SOOOO missing the point !!
Without having to revert to 'Martial Law' etc, do these 'people' think that global authorities are
dictating what they are, because of new laws/thoughts etc about 'Religious' people ????
NO!!! It is an across the board regulation for the benefit/safety of EVERYONE !!! ???, NOW !!!
COMPLACENCY has always been the biggest killer of/in humanity. Time will tell..
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Lots of governments have being lifting their lockdowns over the last month, or have plans to do so in June. Obviously this will result in more cases of COVID-19. Hopefully other measures such as contact tracing and testing will be able to control the spread, without having massive lockdowns.
I've felt quite anxious shortly after returning to work. I was off from mid-March, to late-April. At first I was happy to return to work, but then I gradually became more anxious, especially as some of my colleagues struggle with social distancing. I'm not too worried about getting it myself, although I am aware that I could get very ill and potentially die from it, but my parents are in their 70s and have underlying health conditions, making them vulnerable. I've struggled a bit to deal with my emotions, especially at work. I've found myself losing my temper, being snappy and a couple of weeks ago, I was in tears at my desk, when I thought about my parents dying. I know others where I work are much worse off: as I mentioned before someone's daughter is in a coma, with pneumonia, due to complications from COVID-19, but I seem to be more emotionally unstable. Fortunately I'm able to talk about how I feel, which is the only thing stopping me losing it altogether.
Is anyone else here struggling with this? It turns out there's a name for this: post lockdown anxiety. I suppose this makes sense: we were told to stay in, because there's a dangerous virus circulating and now we're supposed to go out, even though the virus is still out there. I just cling on to the hope the contact tracing will work and I know the NHS will be able to cope.
Is anyone else finding it hard to return to work?
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Lots of governments have being lifting their lockdowns over the last month, or have plans to do so in June. Obviously this will result in more cases of COVID-19. Hopefully other measures such as contact tracing and testing will be able to control the spread, without having massive lockdowns.
Over here they start mass testing from today. So those still watching the numbers will likely see a huge peak in the infection numbers for the NL in a couple of days.
I've felt quite anxious shortly after returning to work. I was off from mid-March, to late-April. At first I was happy to return to work, but then I gradually became more anxious, especially as some of my colleagues struggle with social distancing. I'm not too worried about getting it myself, although I am aware that I could get very ill and potentially die from it, but my parents are in their 70s and have underlying health conditions, making them vulnerable.
Same here. What is frustrating to me is the sense you have little control over the situation. The only thing you can do is keep yourself and other family members away.
Is anyone else finding it hard to return to work?
Normally I'd go to a customer 2 days a week. I have cut that back to 1 day. On one hand it is nice to go back to a 'normal' rythm and it is also necessary to discuss with people face to face but it still is a risk. Normally I'd use public transport to get there but due to the risk of infection in public transport and the lack of parking spaces (this customer is located at the worst place to go by car) the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.
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This program was just on television down here and I thought it might be of interest to others. A credit to the ABC and Australian Story.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YmOnJim5wU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YmOnJim5wU)
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[...]
...the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.
Is it an option to throw a bike in the back of the car, and park a 'bicycleable' distance away?
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[...]
...the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.
Is it an option to throw a bike in the back of the car, and park a 'bicycleable' distance away?
Yes and no. It still means cycling 5km to 10km from a free parking zone into the business park. Likely more people will have this idea and consume the available parking space quickly. But still people will need to own a car and some don't (some can't even park a car where they live).
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[...]
...the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.
Is it an option to throw a bike in the back of the car, and park a 'bicycleable' distance away?
Yes and no. It still means cycling 5km to 10km from a free parking zone into the business park. Likely more people will have this idea and consume the available parking space quickly. But still people will need to own a car and some don't (some can't even park a car where they live).
5-10km is really not that bad? Several people in my family think nothing of cycling 50Km - 100Km a day! :D Personally, I'd reach for a motorcycle, e-bike, or moped long before those kinds of numbers came on my bicycling radar...
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Is anyone else here struggling with this? It turns out there's a name for this: post lockdown anxiety. I suppose this makes sense: we were told to stay in, because there's a dangerous virus circulating and now we're supposed to go out, even though the virus is still out there. I just cling on to the hope the contact tracing will work and I know the NHS will be able to cope.
Is anyone else finding it hard to return to work?
I'm planning to work from home indefinitely, especially now since there are riots going on all over, those worry me a lot more than Covid ever did and I suspect will directly result in a lot of new infections. Otherwise no, I haven't really been worried at all, the uncertainty and economic impacts are a big concern but staying home all the time just kind of feels normal to me now and I've saved a ton of money between transportation and not eating out. I haven't put gas in my car in months and I haven't eaten from a restaurant since mid March. I actually looked at my bank account last night and thought "wow, where did all this money come from?" Even being fiscally conservative in general I hadn't realized how much I was spending on lunch and commuting.
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We are driving so little now, that I have had to dig out the battery charger to deal with the fact that the batteries slowly run down from just sitting there!
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The sunrises where I live have sometimes been really colorful, usually when the usual pollution is in the air they are just gray,
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We are driving so little now, that I have had to dig out the battery charger to deal with the fact that the batteries slowly run down from just sitting there!
Yea I got hit by that pretty early on. 3 year old battery that has survived many thousand starts couldn't cope and ran flat and once that happens to an old battery it will never be the same. 2 weeks later I had to replace it. New one is holding up fine to 1 or 2 short trips a week.
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Lots of governments have being lifting their lockdowns over the last month, or have plans to do so in June. Obviously this will result in more cases of COVID-19. Hopefully other measures such as contact tracing and testing will be able to control the spread, without having massive lockdowns.
Over here they start mass testing from today. So those still watching the numbers will likely see a huge peak in the infection numbers for the NL in a couple of days.
I've felt quite anxious shortly after returning to work. I was off from mid-March, to late-April. At first I was happy to return to work, but then I gradually became more anxious, especially as some of my colleagues struggle with social distancing. I'm not too worried about getting it myself, although I am aware that I could get very ill and potentially die from it, but my parents are in their 70s and have underlying health conditions, making them vulnerable.
Same here. What is frustrating to me is the sense you have little control over the situation. The only thing you can do is keep yourself and other family members away.
Is anyone else finding it hard to return to work?
Normally I'd go to a customer 2 days a week. I have cut that back to 1 day. On one hand it is nice to go back to a 'normal' rythm and it is also necessary to discuss with people face to face but it still is a risk. Normally I'd use public transport to get there but due to the risk of infection in public transport and the lack of parking spaces (this customer is located at the worst place to go by car) the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.
Yes, I feel similar, especially has I have no control over it. Cycling is good, it'll keep you fit, boosting your immune system, reducing the chance of you getting ill from anything, let along COVID-19.
[...]
...the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.
Is it an option to throw a bike in the back of the car, and park a 'bicycleable' distance away?
Yes and no. It still means cycling 5km to 10km from a free parking zone into the business park. Likely more people will have this idea and consume the available parking space quickly. But still people will need to own a car and some don't (some can't even park a car where they live).
I normally cycle about 7km to work. Before the pandemic, I used to do a 9.5km ride at lunchtime, I found it revealed stress, but I didn't start again since returning to work, at the end of April and just go for a walk instead. More people cycling will reduce pollution and the spread of diseases.
Is anyone else here struggling with this? It turns out there's a name for this: post lockdown anxiety. I suppose this makes sense: we were told to stay in, because there's a dangerous virus circulating and now we're supposed to go out, even though the virus is still out there. I just cling on to the hope the contact tracing will work and I know the NHS will be able to cope.
Is anyone else finding it hard to return to work?
I'm planning to work from home indefinitely, especially now since there are riots going on all over, those worry me a lot more than Covid ever did and I suspect will directly result in a lot of new infections. Otherwise no, I haven't really been worried at all, the uncertainty and economic impacts are a big concern but staying home all the time just kind of feels normal to me now and I've saved a ton of money between transportation and not eating out. I haven't put gas in my car in months and I haven't eaten from a restaurant since mid March. I actually looked at my bank account last night and thought "wow, where did all this money come from?" Even being fiscally conservative in general I hadn't realized how much I was spending on lunch and commuting.
The riots are a big problem and will spread the virus, which proportionally kills more African Americans.
I didn't find staying at home too much of a big deal. It was a bit boring and I did worry a bit about my job, but knew it wouldn't last forever. My anxiety picked up shortly after returning to work. Fortunately I'm feeling a bit better now.
Yes, I've also saved money, by not going out and socialising. I hope when this is all over, many will have more disposable income they can spend and stimulate the economy.
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Normally I'd use public transport to get there but due to the risk of infection in public transport and the lack of parking spaces (this customer is located at the worst place to go by car) the only real alternative is to go by bicycle.
You're lucky that's even an option to consider.
As soon as the lockdown was announced I told myself that I'd come out of it better off in at least some way, and since going for a bike ride was one of the very few remaining permitted activities, that's what I decided to do - more exercise.
So, I discovered Strava and starting recording my daily activity. I've ridden about 10 miles most days, discovered some great cycle tracks within just a couple of miles of home, and have done some much longer days without major issues. I wouldn't call myself "fit" by any means, and certainly not in a competitive sense, but I figure I'm as capable as a middle aged nerd can reasonably be expected to be.
My last customer visit was 60 miles each way with an HP 4395A... try doing that on a bike.
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We are in good company. Even the queen of the Netherlands travels by bike for work related visits nowadays:
[attachimg=1 width=600]
The security detail isn't visible though but they are there.
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Normally I'd use public transport to get there but due to the risk of infection in public transport and the lack of parking spaces (this customer is located at the worst place to go by car) the only real alternative is to go by bicycle.
You're lucky that's even an option to consider.
As soon as the lockdown was announced I told myself that I'd come out of it better off in at least some way, and since going for a bike ride was one of the very few remaining permitted activities, that's what I decided to do - more exercise.
So, I discovered Strava and starting recording my daily activity. I've ridden about 10 miles most days, discovered some great cycle tracks within just a couple of miles of home, and have done some much longer days without major issues. I wouldn't call myself "fit" by any means, and certainly not in a competitive sense, but I figure I'm as capable as a middle aged nerd can reasonably be expected to be.
My last customer visit was 60 miles each way with an HP 4395A... try doing that on a bike.
Yes, cycling is good. Over a couple of years, I lost weight, from a BMI of 28 to 23, just by cycling 14 miles per day, without adjusting my diet, in fact I've being eating more, rather than less and not all of it is healthy! I think you have to do a reasonable pace to lose weight: fast enough to work up a sweat and get out of breath.
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Pace doesn't matter. Just burn energy. Some say you start burning fat after 20 minutes. I lost weight too in the past half decade by being more active.
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We are in good company. Even the queen of the Netherlands travels by bike for work related visits nowadays:
(Attachment Link)
The security detail isn't visible though but they are there.
These pictures always show cycling under ideal conditions. A dry sunny day, that's neither too hot or too cold. Few people mind cycling a reasonable distance under those conditions. However, they are a small percentage of all days for most people. This queen has no fear cycling, as the moment rain starts her security detail can put her in a car, and probably some sucker in the detail will have to take her bike and get wet.
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These pictures always show cycling under ideal conditions. A dry sunny day, that's neither too hot or too cold. Few people mind cycling a reasonable distance under those conditions. However, they are a small percentage of all days for most people. This queen has no fear cycling, as the moment rain starts her security detail can put her in a car, and probably some sucker in the detail will have to take her bike and get wet.
That's certainly the case here. The weather is crap 80% of the year. Cycling is great on a nice day, but if it's 40F, pissing down rain and windy or if it's 95F under the blistering sun it's just plain miserable. Add to that the fact that around here there are hills everywhere, and I don't mean the little humps you see in some regions but HILLS with hundreds of feet of elevation gain and you have to be really hard core into cycling to use it as transportation. Riding on the road with cars is also absolutely terrifying, it's bad enough in another car but on a bicycle it's a death wish with everyone driving around looking down at their phone.
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That's what's good about the UK. The weather is always sort of "okish". If it's pissing it down it's usually warm enough for it not to be too bothersome. If it's hot it's not usually hot enough for it to be bothersome. Most of the time it's just overcast. Also where I am in London it's mostly flat and littered with cycle lanes :)
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That's what's good about the UK. The weather is always sort of "okish". If it's pissing it down it's usually warm enough for it not to be too bothersome. If it's hot it's not usually hot enough for it to be bothersome. Most of the time it's just overcast. Also where I am in London it's mostly flat and littered with cycle lanes :)
Bloody South East Englanders. Right up their own arse. Completely forget the rest of the UK exists. Nothing changes.
:P
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We pay for your nice roads with all that tax ...
https://www.roads.org.uk/road-schemes?title=&route=All&status%5B0%5D=0&status%5B1%5D=1&status%5B2%5D=2&type=All&class=All®ion=All&order=field_region&sort=asc (https://www.roads.org.uk/road-schemes?title=&route=All&status%5B0%5D=0&status%5B1%5D=1&status%5B2%5D=2&type=All&class=All®ion=All&order=field_region&sort=asc)
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I work from home, but our company is losing money and making cuts. I think I'm going to lose my job soon and I don't know what I'm going to do next.
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Gyms reopen here in two weeks. All kids back at school full time country-wide. AirBnB (non-interstate travel) have gone nuts as people want a weekend away. Kids soccer training started again. Football has started again (without crowds).
We haven't had a new community transmitted case in many days in NSW now, our handful of cases have all come from travelers coming in.
All but big gatherings are back open, like concerts and public football matches.
Basically it's starting to feel like no one gives a frig any more, get back to it.
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Time will tell if that is a good idea or not.
We've just been told we're working from home until September earliest. Possibly not even going back until new year. Turned out the office just cost a lot of money and we don't really need it :-DD
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Time will tell if that is a good idea or not.
We've just been told we're working from home until September earliest. Possibly not even going back until new year. Turned out the office just cost a lot of money and we don't really need it :-DD
We are getting similar, but possibly start of July. Even the CEO and exec teams say they don't want to return to working in the office 5 days a week. This presents a problem though. Obviously we don't need as many desks and it would be very wasteful to assign people a desk. So all desks become "hot desks" and you would have to book a desk on the days you want to come in. That gets complex if teams want to have days when all team members are in.... if a lot of teams want to be in on Monday it would require more desks that would sit unused the rest of the week.
They were suggesting using the parking booking app to book desks LOL
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That's what's good about the UK. The weather is always sort of "okish". If it's pissing it down it's usually warm enough for it not to be too bothersome. If it's hot it's not usually hot enough for it to be bothersome. Most of the time it's just overcast. Also where I am in London it's mostly flat and littered with cycle lanes :)
This must be a different London from the one where I grew up. Cycling to school was a miserable experience for most of the year. The problems with staying dry on a bike in the rain meant I gave up the bike and walked to school. It a lot easier to walk in the kind of clothes that will keep you dry, and you can use an umbrella on the days where the wind is not too strong. Cycling in London even makes London Transport look attractive... if London Transport actually operates in the direction you need to go.
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Gyms reopen here in two weeks. All kids back at school full time country-wide. AirBnB (non-interstate travel) have gone nuts as people want a weekend away. Kids soccer training started again. Football has started again (without crowds).
We haven't had a new community transmitted case in many days in NSW now, our handful of cases have all come from travelers coming in.
All but big gatherings are back open, like concerts and public football matches.
Basically it's starting to feel like no one gives a frig any more, get back to it.
Here's hoping it all works out and things don't flare up again. It would be great to see things start getting back to normal and we have to open things back up at some point but I also think it's important to remain on guard and keep expanding testing. A huge resurgence in infections would be disastrous from both a public health and economic standpoint.
Things were really starting to look optimistic here in the Seattle area very recently, but then all these protests and riots broke out so I would not be surprised if we see a massive resurgence. If I were trying to think of a way to spread Covid to as many people as possible, a massive protest with thousands of people in close proximity screaming and yelling and marching all over a major city sounds like an absolutely ideal way to do it. Perhaps I should clarify, I'm not suggesting some kind of conspiracy or intent here, only that what is going on is close to the absolute worst case behavior people could be engaging in when there's still a virus going around killing people. Especially when the hardest hit communities with the highest Covid death rates are precisely those that the protests and riots are advocating for. It's just a bad situation any way you look at it.
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https://retractionwatch.com/2020/06/01/top-journal-retracts-study-claiming-masks-ineffective-in-preventing-covid-19-spread/ (https://retractionwatch.com/2020/06/01/top-journal-retracts-study-claiming-masks-ineffective-in-preventing-covid-19-spread/)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine.html)
NY times is sort of behind a paywall.
Some quotes from the article.
Data from Africa indicate that nearly 25 percent of all Covid-19 cases and 40 percent of all deaths in the continent occurred in Surgisphere-associated hospitals which had sophisticated electronic patient data recording,” the scientists wrote. “Both the numbers of cases and deaths, and the detailed data collection, seem unlikely.
Another of the critics’ concerns was that the data about Covid-19 cases in Australia was incompatible with government reports and included “more in-hospital deaths than had occurred in the entire country during the study period.”
Scientists who wrote and signed the letter criticizing the study included clinicians, researchers, statisticians and ethicists from academic medical centers, including Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the University of Pennsylvania, Vanderbilt University and Duke University.
Dr. Sapan S. Desai, the owner and founder of Surgisphere and one of the paper’s authors, vigorously defended the findings and the authenticity and validity of the company’s database. He said official counts of coronavirus cases and deaths often lagged behind actual cases, which might explain some discrepancies.
The other paper is about a retraction of a paper about the effectiveness of masks.
The paper only involved four participants. Apparently, the authors thought a correction — adding more patients — would be enough
From retraction watch:
The article joins our ever-growing list of retracted COVID-19 studies. It is a reminder that for all of the alarm over publicity of preprints, because they are not peer-reviewed, “Peer-Reviewed Studies Also Require Caution.”
Perhaps the real problem is speed, not peer-review status. If only someone had warned us.
That last quote has quite a lot of links to interesting stuff.
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Figured it was relevant to put this here.
I know a lot of people are using Teams, Zoom and other video conference/chat platforms for work these days.
I had a small epiphany last night, did a bit of googling and you can indeed use OBS to produce a virtual camera image which both Teams and Zoom will pick up as a webcam. It's just a standard Windows video input so I imagine anything that uses a camera will work with it.
I'll post an article link below, but the TLDR is ...
1. Install OBS (http://obsproject.com/ (http://obsproject.com/))
2. Install the Virtual camera plugin (https://obsproject.com/forum/resources/obs-virtualcam.539/ (https://obsproject.com/forum/resources/obs-virtualcam.539/) )
3. Enable the virtual camera output in OBS (Tools->Virtual Camera)
4. Now add some sources, move, resize, change stacking order etc.
5. Open Teams/Zoom and select the OBS Camera as your video input device.
Now spend all day playing with different sources. I recommend "Window Capture" rather than "Display capture" for business use as this will lock to the window contents and not display any popups or appearances such as facebook notifications that appear. It will even display the window contents if you move another window over it.
Each source can be scaled, if you select Default scaling it will automatically scale the source to fit your OBS screen, even if you change the size of the source window "live" it will rescale the output. You can also crop/pad sources, which is handy to remove, for example your browsers address/bookmark bars etc.
You can switch sources in and out "live". You can also define "Scenes" and switch between those with tranisitons etc.
You can of course use your existing camera as a source and put your self in the corner of your presentation. If you are such inclined it supports color keying, so if you put a green or blue sheet behind you, you can make your background transparent and have your presentation appear around you seemlessly to the point you can point at things with your hands or appear in exotic locations.
Beyond that, just have fun. Be careful with your personal desktop it is very easy to share something you didn't intend to. For example if you want to share your browser and enable it in your scene, but forget it's on your facebook tab... then your meeting members will see you facebook! So be careful! Also why I don't recommend using "Display capture" or capturing an area of your desktop.
https://collab365.community/using-obs-studio-with-microsoft-teams/ (https://collab365.community/using-obs-studio-with-microsoft-teams/)
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Obviously shifting to distance education is a big change.
A hot new thing there is virtual labs/simulated labs.
For example, here its described in a Nature article.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06831-1 (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06831-1)
It seems to me as if despite electronics getting a huge head start with tons of EDA software already being available, that it would be hard to take any discipline and adequately simulate it because certain things just have to be learned by experiencing them.
But what do I know? Maybe I am just being old fashioned.
I like tinkering, thats the big draw of electronics for me.
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Obviously shifting to distance education is a big change.
Most evidence to date says distance education just won't work. Really smart people do great with distance learning. Most people struggle - i.e. all those people who would typically get some assistance from the really smart people in the group when they learn together. MOOCs were flavour of the month for a while, but despite trying various strategies they are struggling to stay relevant.
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Big parts of the US, rural areas, dont even have broadband in any form yet! The providers just dont see it as profitable. That also may mean no phone coverage too.
It seems like putting in a national brodband network might have been a really good idea in Australia.
Obviously shifting to distance education is a big change.
Most evidence to date says distance education just won't work. Really smart people do great with distance learning. Most people struggle - i.e. all those people who would typically get some assistance from the really smart people in the group when they learn together. MOOCs were flavour of the month for a while, but despite trying various strategies they are struggling to stay relevant.
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Things were really starting to look optimistic here in the Seattle area very recently, but then all these protests and riots broke out so I would not be surprised if we see a massive resurgence. If I were trying to think of a way to spread Covid to as many people as possible, a massive protest with thousands of people in close proximity screaming and yelling and marching all over a major city sounds like an absolutely ideal way to do it.
The outdoor transmission rate is very, very low. There's so much more air to dilute the droplets.
(Around here, the protesters are very conscientious about wearing masks, but it probably doesn't matter.)
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The outdoor transmission rate is very, very low. There's so much more air to dilute the droplets.
(Around here, the protesters are very conscientious about wearing masks, but it probably doesn't matter.)
I hope so, but I'm not exceedingly confident. If Covid does start spreading like wildfire again we'll be right back where we started and I don't know that we could go through another round of months of lockdowns without suffering a total economic collapse.
On the other hand, if the protests don't result in a large spike in infections then we can be a lot more confident in opening things back up, at least outdoor things. Even under the best of circumstances we're going to be feeling the effects of the pandemic for a decade or more. Once things reopen there will be a huge rebound of pent up demand for things but eventually reality of the enormous debt accrued will catch up to us. Even as things stand, all the people who have fallen behind on their rent and mortgages are going to have to pay the piper. The eviction moratoriums will expire eventually and most people who are months behind will never be able to catch up.
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Pace doesn't matter. Just burn energy. Some say you start burning fat after 20 minutes. I lost weight too in the past half decade by being more active.
Yes and of course you need to burn more energy than your intake to lose weight. There are other positive effects of high intensity, such as improving fitness and reduced insulin resistance, which you don't get from low intensity. There seems to be lots evidence supporting high-intensity, low-volume interval training, for improving insulin sensitivity, which means your body will burn energy more efficiently, rather storing it as fat, enabling you to eat what you want, without gaining fat.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29197155/
That's what's good about the UK. The weather is always sort of "okish". If it's pissing it down it's usually warm enough for it not to be too bothersome. If it's hot it's not usually hot enough for it to be bothersome. Most of the time it's just overcast. Also where I am in London it's mostly flat and littered with cycle lanes :)
This must be a different London from the one where I grew up. Cycling to school was a miserable experience for most of the year. The problems with staying dry on a bike in the rain meant I gave up the bike and walked to school. It a lot easier to walk in the kind of clothes that will keep you dry, and you can use an umbrella on the days where the wind is not too strong. Cycling in London even makes London Transport look attractive... if London Transport actually operates in the direction you need to go.
Of he has different preferences for cycling weather? I like cool weather for cycling, preferably around 10oC, which is fortunately quite close to the average annual temperature where I live in Eastern England. I don't mind light rain, but the wind is more annoying.
Time will tell if that is a good idea or not.
We've just been told we're working from home until September earliest. Possibly not even going back until new year. Turned out the office just cost a lot of money and we don't really need it :-DD
We are getting similar, but possibly start of July. Even the CEO and exec teams say they don't want to return to working in the office 5 days a week. This presents a problem though. Obviously we don't need as many desks and it would be very wasteful to assign people a desk. So all desks become "hot desks" and you would have to book a desk on the days you want to come in. That gets complex if teams want to have days when all team members are in.... if a lot of teams want to be in on Monday it would require more desks that would sit unused the rest of the week.
They were suggesting using the parking booking app to book desks LOL
Hot desks aren't ideal in a pandemic, because the office needs to be thoroughly cleaned between one user and the next.
The outdoor transmission rate is very, very low. There's so much more air to dilute the droplets.
(Around here, the protesters are very conscientious about wearing masks, but it probably doesn't matter.)
I hope so, but I'm not exceedingly confident. If Covid does start spreading like wildfire again we'll be right back where we started and I don't know that we could go through another round of months of lockdowns without suffering a total economic collapse.
On the other hand, if the protests don't result in a large spike in infections then we can be a lot more confident in opening things back up, at least outdoor things. Even under the best of circumstances we're going to be feeling the effects of the pandemic for a decade or more. Once things reopen there will be a huge rebound of pent up demand for things but eventually reality of the enormous debt accrued will catch up to us. Even as things stand, all the people who have fallen behind on their rent and mortgages are going to have to pay the piper. The eviction moratoriums will expire eventually and most people who are months behind will never be able to catch up.
Yes, the infection doesn't spread as effectively outside, but huge crowds will definitely increase the spread, especially with lots of people shouting and moving around a lot. Black lives matter, indeed all lives do, so stay at home, where possible and avoid large crowds, like the plague.
The irony is COVID-19 disproportionally affects African Americans. No one knows why. It's odd how there seems to be a focus on socioeconomic factors, which are probably valid, but it could also be biological: genetics and vitamin D deficiency, which is higher in those with darker skin. I think they have an agenda? It's odd how East Asians seem to be less affected by COVID-19, than other ethnic minorities. I wonder if that's because the virus originated over there, there have been similar viruses in East Asia in the past, so people have evolved some immunity?
It's possible the lockdown was overkill, but some overkill was necessary. The R number needed to fall significantly below 1, to bring the number of cases down to a point when they could be managed and buy some time to build testing a contact tracing capacity. Hopefully things can reopen and the disease can be controlled with more targeted measures.
I think landlords will have to write off some of the rent and banks extend mortgages. Evictions are expensive, it can be difficult to get new tenants and sell property. Hopefully there will be an upturn, as people who've continued to work and saved, during the pandemic start spending more. How well the global recovery progresses will depend on whether other countries such as the US, decide to punish China, by putting up trade barriers or not.
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Time will tell if that is a good idea or not.
We've just been told we're working from home until September earliest. Possibly not even going back until new year. Turned out the office just cost a lot of money and we don't really need it :-DD
Lots of companies in that boat. Expect to see drops in the commercial realestate market.
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The irony is COVID-19 disproportionally affects African Americans. No one knows why. It's odd how there seems to be a focus on socioeconomic factors, which are probably valid, but it could also be biological: genetics and vitamin D deficiency, which is higher in those with darker skin. I think they have an agenda? It's odd how East Asians seem to be less affected by COVID-19, than other ethnic minorities. I wonder if that's because the virus originated over there, there have been similar viruses in East Asia in the past, so people have evolved some immunity?
Oddly that was not the case in this region, though the last I read it certainly was elsewhere. This suggests to me that socioeconomic factors are a major contributor. There are not a lot of African Americans in this region but those that are here are largely middle class professionals that live among everyone else. We don't have the large swaths of majority black and/or majority low income ghettos that you see in some areas. Apparently the percentage of people who think Covid is a scam is much higher in those communities and then there are all the usual health issues associated with poverty.
It's possible that cultural factors have helped the Asians, I remember when Covid was first starting to spread I started seeing a lot of Asians wearing masks back before anyone else was, parts of Asia have dealt with pandemics enough times before so it's probably more socially acceptable/expected to wear a face mask out in public. My sample size is far too small to for anything more than idle speculation though.
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The irony is COVID-19 disproportionally affects African Americans. No one knows why. It's odd how there seems to be a focus on socioeconomic factors, which are probably valid, but it could also be biological: genetics and vitamin D deficiency, which is higher in those with darker skin. I think they have an agenda? It's odd how East Asians seem to be less affected by COVID-19, than other ethnic minorities. I wonder if that's because the virus originated over there, there have been similar viruses in East Asia in the past, so people have evolved some immunity?
Oddly that was not the case in this region, though the last I read it certainly was elsewhere. This suggests to me that socioeconomic factors are a major contributor. There are not a lot of African Americans in this region but those that are here are largely middle class professionals that live among everyone else. We don't have the large swaths of majority black and/or majority low income ghettos that you see in some areas. Apparently the percentage of people who think Covid is a scam is much higher in those communities and then there are all the usual health issues associated with poverty.
It's possible that cultural factors have helped the Asians, I remember when Covid was first starting to spread I started seeing a lot of Asians wearing masks back before anyone else was, parts of Asia have dealt with pandemics enough times before so it's probably more socially acceptable/expected to wear a face mask out in public. My sample size is far too small to for anything more than idle speculation though.
The case for vitamin D, rather than socioeconomics is quite strong.
A study has been done in the UK which tries to correct for socioeconomic factors contributing to the higher COVID-19 death rate in BAME (Black and Minority Ethnicities).
(https://www.ons.gov.uk/resource?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/coronavirusrelateddeathsbyethnicgroupenglandandwalesmethodology/bb583ebc.png)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/coronavirusrelateddeathsbyethnicgroupenglandandwalesmethodology (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/coronavirusrelateddeathsbyethnicgroupenglandandwalesmethodology)
Vitamin D deficiency is more common in people with darker skin, as well as the obese, as it's a fat soluble vitamin and adipose tissue locks it up.
https://www.jabfm.org/content/29/2/226 (https://www.jabfm.org/content/29/2/226)
And there's evidence to support lower serum vitamin D levels, increasing the risk of COVID-19 complications.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-020-01570-8 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-020-01570-8)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/10/2020.04.08.20058578.full.pdf?mod=article_inline (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/10/2020.04.08.20058578.full.pdf?mod=article_inline)
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So what is the problem, it is an easy fix. Got to the nearest pharmacy and buy vitamin D.
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It's possible that cultural factors have helped the Asians, I remember when Covid was first starting to spread I started seeing a lot of Asians wearing masks back before anyone else was, parts of Asia have dealt with pandemics enough times before so it's probably more socially acceptable/expected to wear a face mask out in public. My sample size is far too small to for anything more than idle speculation though.
In the UK, I lived through the Hong Kong flu epidemic in 1969 and 1970. Everybody worried, but nobody took any precautions. A lot of services were interrupted, but not because of shutdowns. People were just calling in sick in large numbers. The death toll was several times the toll from a typical year's flu, mostly killing the elderly. SARS and avian flu didn't touch the UK, and swine flu turned out to be a damp squib. People have become complacent.
In Hong Kong in the 2000s we lived through SARS, 2 rounds of avian flu, and a minor issue with swine flu. We became used to using masks and clamping down on hygiene issues at the first sign of trouble. We also became used to massive public support for the government taking quick and decisive action.
I live in the UK again now. When covid-19 started, the bulk of people here seemed really indifferent about their health. I guess this is what happens when the only people who remember what an epidemic can do are nearing retirement or have lived abroad. I expect a lot of people of East Asian origin in western countries have enough family contact with people in East Asia to have learned to be cautious. I imagine, like us, they have looked on the bulk of the people around them as careless fools.
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It's possible that cultural factors have helped the Asians, I remember when Covid was first starting to spread I started seeing a lot of Asians wearing masks back before anyone else was, parts of Asia have dealt with pandemics enough times before so it's probably more socially acceptable/expected to wear a face mask out in public. My sample size is far too small to for anything more than idle speculation though.
In the UK, I lived through the Hong Kong flu epidemic in 1969 and 1970. Everybody worried, but nobody took any precautions. A lot of services were interrupted, but not because of shutdowns. People were just calling in sick in large numbers. The death toll was several times the toll from a typical year's flu, mostly killing the elderly. SARS and avian flu didn't touch the UK, and swine flu turned out to be a damp squib. People have become complacent.
In Hong Kong in the 2000s we lived through SARS, 2 rounds of avian flu, and a minor issue with swine flu. We became used to using masks and clamping down on hygiene issues at the first sign of trouble. We also became used to massive public support for the government taking quick and decisive action.
I live in the UK again now. When covid-19 started, the bulk of people here seemed really indifferent about their health. I guess this is what happens when the only people who remember what an epidemic can do are nearing retirement or have lived abroad. I expect a lot of people of East Asian origin in western countries have enough family contact with people in East Asia to have learned to be cautious. I imagine, like us, they have looked on the bulk of the people around them as careless fools.
I definitely agree with your sentiments about why the west has not reacted very well to this and that East Asians are more careful, due to their recent history of epidemics.
It's interesting how Australia have done much better than Europe and America, even though they have closer links to China, which paradoxically could be why. China seems like a far away land for Europeans yet it's on Australia's doorstep, so it's not surprising they too more decisive action.
I remember being more worried about swine flu, at the start of that pandemic, than I was when this one started. People were very worried about swine flu because was a strain of the 1918 flu, which killed many more people. SARS‑CoV‑2 didn't bother me because the last version back in 2003 wasn't a big deal for us. It took most people by surprise.
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So what is the problem, it is an easy fix. Got to the nearest pharmacy and buy vitamin D.
It's an easy fix once people actually know about it.
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It's interesting how Australia have done much better than Europe and America, even though they have closer links to China, which paradoxically could be why. China seems like a far away land for Europeans yet it's on Australia's doorstep, so it's not surprising they too more decisive action.
Don't ignore the climate factor. Most of these infections do not spread well in warm weather, and covid-19 hit Australia in the summer.
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All that sunshine. Vitamin D again?
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All that sunshine. Vitamin D again?
The sun might help with vitamin D levels, but the main factor is having a warm nose. You can reduce your chances of getting many viral infections in the winter by making sure you keep your nose warm when you go out..... or in affluent parts of Asia, when the weather is hot but the air con is set to a crazy low temperature. ;)
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All that sunshine. Vitamin D again?
The sun might help with vitamin D levels, but the main factor is having a warm nose. You can reduce your chances of getting many viral infections in the winter by making sure you keep your nose warm when you go out..... or in affluent parts of Asia, when the weather is hot but the air con is set to a crazy low temperature. ;)
It's not just Asians that seem to like setting the A/C to refrigerated storage levels! - what's wrong with about 24C - 25C... as long as the house is not humid you'll be comfortable and save $$$!
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It's not just Asians that seem to like setting the A/C to refrigerated storage levels! - what's wrong with about 24C - 25C... as long as the house is not humid you'll be comfortable and save $$$!
That's much too warm for me. I can tolerate it during the day but when I go to bed I find if the room is much over 71F/21C I have trouble falling asleep. In the summer I crank up the AC before I go to bed. Doesn't really cost much at all, during the peak summer months AC adds maybe $20/mo to my electric bill.
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So what is the problem, it is an easy fix. Got to the nearest pharmacy and buy vitamin D.
Because it isn't as simple as taking Vitamin D supplements = less risk of severe COVID 19. There is a link, but it could be that those who get less dietary Vitamin D also dont' get enough other nutrients that can affect outcomes. Or, it's a sign that one goes outside less, and therefore, isn't as active, that affects outcomes. Every time the media publishes a link between a nice simple food/supplement/vitamin and a risk or something, it is assumed that one causes the other. There isn't a consensus on what a "normal" blood serum level of Vitamin D should be, as it varies by an order of magnitude depending on country, or even that it is a valid measure for anything more than checking for severe deficiency (read: ricketts )
The danger is that some may believe themselves to be less likely to contract the corona-virus, or have mild symptoms if they take Vitamin D - and therefore behave less cautiously, putting themselves and others at risk.
If the past few months have taught us anything its that rushed studies, jumping to conclusions, and poor fact checking by both the media and governments leads to poor decisions and outcomes.
That said, as long as you don't take too much (like >500ui) some see it as an insurance that at worst, is just a waste of money. That and finding a brand that is trust worthy, because in most EU countries, and the US, supplements are regulated as food, and as such, have no real obligation to contain the amount of active ingredient they claim to have, and can even have far too much:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190408114319.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190408114319.htm)
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Recently I also read an article saying there is a correlation (but remember correlation is not equal to causality!) between low vitamin K levels and being severely affected by Covid-19. Vitamin K comes in two flavours; one kind is obtained from green vegetables and the other from bacteria in your intestines.
And Buriedcode is right to note that vitamin supplements aren't always the answer. None of them contain normal dosages; they are all way over what is necessary and some even contain unhealthy amounts. Unless you have an illness which causes vitamin shortage eathing a normal diet seems to be the best way to get all your vitamins. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/healthy-diet (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/healthy-diet)
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That implies afro americans do not eat normal diet? . :-//
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All that sunshine. Vitamin D again?
The sun might help with vitamin D levels, but the main factor is having a warm nose. You can reduce your chances of getting many viral infections in the winter by making sure you keep your nose warm when you go out..... or in affluent parts of Asia, when the weather is hot but the air con is set to a crazy low temperature. ;)
It's not just Asians that seem to like setting the A/C to refrigerated storage levels! - what's wrong with about 24C - 25C... as long as the house is not humid you'll be comfortable and save $$$!
Dehumidify the house and it feels comfy well above 25C. A dehumidifier is cheaper to run than an air con.
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I'll just run the AC and get lower humidity and lower temp. I can go outside when I want it to be hot and humid. I'd have to run the AC anyway because without it'll easily hit 35C indoors.
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That implies afro americans do not eat normal diet? . :-//
That could be a conclusion (although I'd say a 'healthy diet'). If you compare numbers between various countries you can spot a pattern where people with the shittiest jobs and lowest income are hit the hardest. In the US it seems to be the Afro-American, in the UK black people and those from Bangladesh & Pakistan and in the Netherlands it is the East-Europeans, Turkisch and Morrocan people.
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It's interesting how Australia have done much better than Europe and America, even though they have closer links to China, which paradoxically could be why. China seems like a far away land for Europeans yet it's on Australia's doorstep, so it's not surprising they too more decisive action.
Don't ignore the climate factor. Most of these infections do not spread well in warm weather, and covid-19 hit Australia in the summer.
That hasn't stopped it from spreading through sunny Brazil like wildfire.
I doubt warm weather will help to curb the spread, but it's probably true cold is likely to make it worse, not just due to cold noses and low vitamin D, which incidently is only really a factor later on in winter as the body stores it, but because people tend to socialise more indoors, when it's cold.
COVID-19 also hit South Korea in winter and they did a pretty good job of containing it, even though they have fairly cold winters in many parts of the country, compared to western Europe.
Good public health measures seem to be more important than climate, in the management of COVID-19.
So what is the problem, it is an easy fix. Got to the nearest pharmacy and buy vitamin D.
Because it isn't as simple as taking Vitamin D supplements = less risk of severe COVID 19. There is a link, but it could be that those who get less dietary Vitamin D also dont' get enough other nutrients that can affect outcomes. Or, it's a sign that one goes outside less, and therefore, isn't as active, that affects outcomes. Every time the media publishes a link between a nice simple food/supplement/vitamin and a risk or something, it is assumed that one causes the other. There isn't a consensus on what a "normal" blood serum level of Vitamin D should be, as it varies by an order of magnitude depending on country, or even that it is a valid measure for anything more than checking for severe deficiency (read: ricketts )
The danger is that some may believe themselves to be less likely to contract the corona-virus, or have mild symptoms if they take Vitamin D - and therefore behave less cautiously, putting themselves and others at risk.
If the past few months have taught us anything its that rushed studies, jumping to conclusions, and poor fact checking by both the media and governments leads to poor decisions and outcomes.
That said, as long as you don't take too much (like >500ui) some see it as an insurance that at worst, is just a waste of money. That and finding a brand that is trust worthy, because in most EU countries, and the US, supplements are regulated as food, and as such, have no real obligation to contain the amount of active ingredient they claim to have, and can even have far too much:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190408114319.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190408114319.htm)
If you look at the studies done, vitamin D does have a biochemical role in moderating the immune response in diseases such as COVID-19 and influenza. I admit, I'm not a doctor or biologist, so I don't fully understand it, but it's more than just a correlation.
The main source of vitamin D is from the skin exposed to sunlight, rather than diet, as most foods are poor sources of vitamin D.
Yes, I agree that supplements have risks, but they're minimal, as long as one sticks to the recommended dose. They're cheap, so it makes sense to hand them out freely to those who'll most likely benefit from them.
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Many vitamins, including vitamin D, are easily eliminated by the body when in excess, so unless you take absurd doses, or you have a specific health issue (renal insufficiency or something), it's pretty safe.
Now of course you should ask for medical advice anyway before taking that, and have a blood analysis to see where you stand.
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So what is the problem, it is an easy fix. Got to the nearest pharmacy and buy vitamin D.
It's an easy fix once people actually know about it.
But then there won't be any left to buy on account of panic buying. Again.
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Got an email from corporate that we can expect to work from home until at very least end of summer. I'm ok with that. They still insist that 1 person is in the office though, so we chose that the 12h shift stays as it just makes it easier. 12h day and 12h night and we just arranged it so we work more of those in a row to avoid moving equipment back and forth. I volunteered to go on mostly 12s since it means more time off so I'm usually at the office, but I did get to work from home too a few times when I was on 8h shifts. Could get used to that! Though being alone in the office is kind of nice too. The 4pm guy always cooks up some nasty stuff and stinks up the whole office and he's not around to do that now. Man whatever he cooks up is so potent, the smell usually lingers for several hours. It even makes it into the equipment rooms. Would not surprise me it gets sucked up by the air dryer and the cable guys get a whiff of that if they need to open up a cable splice box.
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Many vitamins, including vitamin D, are easily eliminated by the body when in excess, so unless you take absurd doses, or you have a specific health issue (renal insufficiency or something), it's pretty safe.
Now of course you should ask for medical advice anyway before taking that, and have a blood analysis to see where you stand.
Unfortunately fat soluble vitamins such as D aresn't easilly eliminated from the body, when there's an excess, but recommended daily does is a tiny fraction of what's harmful and should be safe to take, even without medical advice. If there was a significant risk from taking the standard dose sold in pharmacies, then it would only be available on prescription.
If a certain demographic is known to have a high prevelance of vitamin D deficiency, it makes more sense to just give them free suplements, rather than testing every one of them, which would be expensive. Fortification of food is another posibility, but it needs to be a staple part of their diet, contain, or be eaten with fat to be effective. In the US, milk is widely fortified with vitamin A & D, but they tend to have fat free milk, so it's not that effective, unless it's consumed with a fatty food. Here in the UK fresh milk isn't fortified and semiskimmed milk is the most popular type, so fortification would make a lot of sense.
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If there was a significant risk from taking the standard dose sold in pharmacies, then it would only be available on prescription.
That is wishfull thinking. A while ago I read a test in a consumer magazine and they found that there where several types of vitamin tablets which had harmful doses. If it isn't regulated it isn't regulated.
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I watched an interesting video with GPs discussing things you can do to make CovId infections less severe.
There were no surprises. It was basically a GP top list of "healthy living". Diet, sleep, exercise, reduce stress, blood pressure, alcohol, drugs, mental health etc. etc.
In particular "Fat" or adipose tissue was mentioned to contain a protein which was very similar to the spikes on Covid, which was suspected to cause the immune system to overreact leading to potential liver and or kidney complications, leading to more severe reactions in obese people.... allegedly.
Can we stop saying "boost your immune system". It doesn't work like that. You don't "boost" your immune system. To do so would cause auto-immune syndromes. What you can do is make sure you are not suppressing your immune system with poor diet, alcohol, drugs, vitamin deficiency, over weight, stress etc. etc. etc.
The other thing that I still don't think gets mentioned enough is "getting covid" is not digital. It's analogue. It depends on your initial viral dose or over sustained exposure your viral load. Obvious proof of this will take months to boil down if it ever can be, but data suggested that households who got infections tended to get the same "level" of infection. When one person had a severe reaction the people they lived with had a potential of a severe reaction too. So if, like a health worker in PPE you got a very minimal exposure (but some exposure) you might not even get sick as the virus might not get a hold. However if a person with a severe case coughed in your face and you inhaled a lung full, you are more likely to have a severe reaction.
The reason this should be mentioned more often is to stop people shrugging and saying, "I'm probably
being/been exposed, I'll stop taking care." So even if social distancing and good hygiene might not ultimately stop you getting covid, it could lower your overall exposure and give your immune system more of a fighting chance early on and lead to a less severe reaction.
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Spot on. Nice to hear some sanity.
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I watched an interesting video with GPs discussing things you can do to make CovId infections less severe.
There were no surprises. It was basically a GP top list of "healthy living". Diet, sleep, exercise, reduce stress, blood pressure, alcohol, drugs, mental health etc. etc.
In particular "Fat" or adipose tissue was mentioned to contain a protein which was very similar to the spikes on Covid, which was suspected to cause the immune system to overreact leading to potential liver and or kidney complications, leading to more severe reactions in obese people.... allegedly.
Can we stop saying "boost your immune system". It doesn't work like that. You don't "boost" your immune system. To do so would cause auto-immune syndromes. What you can do is make sure you are not suppressing your immune system with poor diet, alcohol, drugs, vitamin deficiency, over weight, stress etc. etc. etc.
The other thing that I still don't think gets mentioned enough is "getting covid" is not digital. It's analogue. It depends on your initial viral dose or over sustained exposure your viral load. Obvious proof of this will take months to boil down if it ever can be, but data suggested that households who got infections tended to get the same "level" of infection. When one person had a severe reaction the people they lived with had a potential of a severe reaction too. So if, like a health worker in PPE you got a very minimal exposure (but some exposure) you might not even get sick as the virus might not get a hold. However if a person with a severe case coughed in your face and you inhaled a lung full, you are more likely to have a severe reaction.
The reason this should be mentioned more often is to stop people shrugging and saying, "I'm probably
being/been exposed, I'll stop taking care." So even if social distancing and good hygiene might not ultimately stop you getting covid, it could lower your overall exposure and give your immune system more of a fighting chance early on and lead to a less severe reaction.
It makes sense that the total quantity of "poison" that you inhale matters to the immune system's ability to deal with it.
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If there was a significant risk from taking the standard dose sold in pharmacies, then it would only be available on prescription.
That is wishfull thinking. A while ago I read a test in a consumer magazine and they found that there where several types of vitamin tablets which had harmful doses. If it isn't regulated it isn't regulated.
In the UK and perhaps the EU, vitamin supplements are regulated. They mustn't contain anything harmful or make any false claims. No doubt there are harmful doses available, but there are plenty of people selling things which are dangerous and don't comply with the relevant regulations. Buy from a reputable pharmacy and you should be fine.
https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/foodsupplementsenglish_0.pdf (https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/foodsupplementsenglish_0.pdf)
If you're in a country which lacks proper regulations, then import from a reputable pharmacy in country which does.
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Can we stop saying "boost your immune system". It doesn't work like that. You don't "boost" your immune system. To do so would cause auto-immune syndromes. What you can do is make sure you are not suppressing your immune system with poor diet, alcohol, drugs, vitamin deficiency, over weight, stress etc. etc. etc.
Thank you. This myth simply will not die. A "boosted" immune system is an inflammatory immune system: good in the short term for dealing with infection/injury, but causes collateral damage, and in the long term can significantly damage the circulatory system. Thankfully, one cannot actually "boost" it, short of being exposed to lots of pathogens. As as you alluded to, taking a supplement isn't going to improve an immune system that is hindered by poor diet, sleep etc..
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If there was a significant risk from taking the standard dose sold in pharmacies, then it would only be available on prescription.
That is wishfull thinking. A while ago I read a test in a consumer magazine and they found that there where several types of vitamin tablets which had harmful doses. If it isn't regulated it isn't regulated.
In the UK and perhaps the EU, vitamin supplements are regulated. They mustn't contain anything harmful or make any false claims. No doubt there are harmful doses available, but there are plenty of people selling things which are dangerous and don't comply with the relevant regulations. Buy from a reputable pharmacy and you should be fine.
https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/foodsupplementsenglish_0.pdf (https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/foodsupplementsenglish_0.pdf)
If you're in a country which lacks proper regulations, then import from a reputable pharmacy in country which does.
They don't have to make claims - notice how an ad in the UK says "now with Turmeric!". Or " added magnesium to support normal functioning. The fact these ingredients are added implies that they have a purpose and some efficacy. Water supports normal functioning. CO2 supports normal functioning. My point is, supplements are not medicine in a legal sense, and provided no specific claims are made, they can be implied. This is why you no longer hear about "anti-oxidants" "helping to protect against cancer" but rather the more subtle "as part of a healthy diet".
The regulations aren't particularly strict - I mean you can buy homeopathic "remedies" at pharmacies still, because ultimately, its peoples choice, and it isn't in any way a medicine, just lactose and colouring.
In the US, some have found to contain contaminants: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-warns-homeopathic-firms-putting-patients-risk-significant-violations-manufacturing-quality (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-warns-homeopathic-firms-putting-patients-risk-significant-violations-manufacturing-quality)
I@m not anti-supplement. Just that they are supplements, not a substitute for a poor diet, merely there to prevent severe deficiency for those who cannot get enough through diet.
The other myth I rant about (sorry) is the idea that with nutrients... not enough is bad, some is good... so more must be better?
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Can we stop saying "boost your immune system". It doesn't work like that. You don't "boost" your immune system. To do so would cause auto-immune syndromes. What you can do is make sure you are not suppressing your immune system with poor diet, alcohol, drugs, vitamin deficiency, over weight, stress etc. etc. etc.
Thank you. This myth simply will not die. A "boosted" immune system is an inflammatory immune system: good in the short term for dealing with infection/injury, but causes collateral damage, and in the long term can significantly damage the circulatory system. Thankfully, one cannot actually "boost" it, short of being exposed to lots of pathogens. As as you alluded to, taking a supplement isn't going to improve an immune system that is hindered by poor diet, sleep etc..
This reminds me... Someone I talk to in the local swimming pool every now and then pointed me to a (what turned out to be) anti-carbohydrates video (which is utter nonsense BTW). One of the things they brought up in the video is that a shocking number of people have absolutely no clue what a healthy diet is. They showed some people who where eating food which could be best described as sweetened & salted card board. No wonder these people started to feel better when they started eating real food and not stomage filling. Another example: a while ago I read an article about a teenage boy somewhere in the UK which got permanently blind because he was only eating hamburgers. IOW: don't assume people know what they should eat to stay healthy.
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If there was a significant risk from taking the standard dose sold in pharmacies, then it would only be available on prescription.
That is wishfull thinking. A while ago I read a test in a consumer magazine and they found that there where several types of vitamin tablets which had harmful doses. If it isn't regulated it isn't regulated.
In the UK and perhaps the EU, vitamin supplements are regulated. They mustn't contain anything harmful or make any false claims. No doubt there are harmful doses available, but there are plenty of people selling things which are dangerous and don't comply with the relevant regulations. Buy from a reputable pharmacy and you should be fine.
https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/foodsupplementsenglish_0.pdf (https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/foodsupplementsenglish_0.pdf)
Yes, same over here. There are some vitamin supplements that are not regulated (sold as food basically), but I'm sure there is a regulation about doses, and whatever else that can classify them as food complements instead. (Would have to look that up.)
I may be wrong, but the typical food complements containing vitamins usually contain vitamins B*, C, maybe E, but I think I've rarely seen them containing vitamin D.
Anyway, I don't know for sure about the UK, but over here, another factor is that if under a prescription, vitamin supplements will be at least partly reimbursed by social security, so that's one more incentive to seek medical advice instead of self-medicating.
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I@m not anti-supplement. Just that they are supplements, not a substitute for a poor diet, merely there to prevent severe deficiency for those who cannot get enough through diet.
I have a collection of "supplementary vitamins and mineral". Except for the vitamin C they are very lose doses and I don't take them everyday, actually maybe once a fortnight.
I use them to supplement my diet. Just in case for whatever reason I didn't quite get all the rarer ones.
I have Vitamin C, which are like 3000% recommended daily requirement. LOL So they make you pee Vitamin C. I rarely use these and maybe have one if I feel run down or a bad hangover, not that they help.
I also have mixed vitamins and a specific iron supplement. These I "use", in frequently, but it's because I know I don't eat enough greens.
I also have vitamin D, which I try to take at least once a week during winter when I barely see the sun for weeks at a time.
If I ate more greens and more veg and got outside more often I could probably do without any of them. For what I use of them these days, the same bottles have lasted me for several years.
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I@m not anti-supplement. Just that they are supplements, not a substitute for a poor diet, merely there to prevent severe deficiency for those who cannot get enough through diet.
This is getting slightly off-topic. The Dutch government health department does advice colored people to take vitamin D supplements from the age of 4 and all women from 50 and all men from 70 (ofcourse this is localised advice influenced by the Dutch climate).
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If there was a significant risk from taking the standard dose sold in pharmacies, then it would only be available on prescription.
That is wishfull thinking. A while ago I read a test in a consumer magazine and they found that there where several types of vitamin tablets which had harmful doses. If it isn't regulated it isn't regulated.
In the UK and perhaps the EU, vitamin supplements are regulated. They mustn't contain anything harmful or make any false claims. No doubt there are harmful doses available, but there are plenty of people selling things which are dangerous and don't comply with the relevant regulations. Buy from a reputable pharmacy and you should be fine.
https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/foodsupplementsenglish_0.pdf (https://www.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/document/foodsupplementsenglish_0.pdf)
If you're in a country which lacks proper regulations, then import from a reputable pharmacy in country which does.
They don't have to make claims - notice how an ad in the UK says "now with Turmeric!". Or " added magnesium to support normal functioning. The fact these ingredients are added implies that they have a purpose and some efficacy. Water supports normal functioning. CO2 supports normal functioning. My point is, supplements are not medicine in a legal sense, and provided no specific claims are made, they can be implied. This is why you no longer hear about "anti-oxidants" "helping to protect against cancer" but rather the more subtle "as part of a healthy diet".
The regulations aren't particularly strict - I mean you can buy homeopathic "remedies" at pharmacies still, because ultimately, its peoples choice, and it isn't in any way a medicine, just lactose and colouring.
In the US, some have found to contain contaminants: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-warns-homeopathic-firms-putting-patients-risk-significant-violations-manufacturing-quality (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-warns-homeopathic-firms-putting-patients-risk-significant-violations-manufacturing-quality)
I@m not anti-supplement. Just that they are supplements, not a substitute for a poor diet, merely there to prevent severe deficiency for those who cannot get enough through diet.
The other myth I rant about (sorry) is the idea that with nutrients... not enough is bad, some is good... so more must be better?
I'm not talking about silly added ingredients which some believe have health benefits, or homeopathic remedies, but plain old vitamin supplements, i.e. pills containing chemicals which are essential for the human body to function properly. Yes, they are covered by food, rather than medical regulations, which state they must not contain anything harmful. Consumer protection laws state that anything sold, must be as described, so they can't legally sell pills stating they contain 5µg of D3, when they're just potato starch, colouring and beeswax. And duh, some bad actors sell contaminated products and the same has been true for food: remember the Chinese baby milk scandal?
Of course one should eat a balanced diet, but most foods are a poor source of vitamin D, so you won't get enough if you hardly go outside, or if you have dark skin and live far away from the equator. Why do you think people living at higher latitudes evolved lighter coloured skin? Vitamin D of course. If it was readily available from food, we'd all be black, because the protection from the sun would still be important, especially in summer. The only evolutionary advantage to being white is extra vitamin D.
The site links below lists 7 foods high in vitamin D, well not quite, in reality it's four, since few foods in the UK are fortified with vitamin D, cod liver oil is more of a supplement, than a food and most mushrooms sold in shops are grown in the dark, thus contain virtually no vitamin D. Note that it's nearly all seafood, which is quite expensive here. Unless you mostly eat fish, as your main protein source, you wont meet your vitamin D requirements from food. It's just not practical. For those who can't make up the rest of their vitamin D requirements from sunlight, supplements are the only way.
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/9-foods-high-in-vitamin-d (https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/9-foods-high-in-vitamin-d)
Yes, there is such thing as too much, especially the fat soluble vitamins which don't get excreted from the human body, but as long as one sticks to the recommended dose, there's no risk of having too much.
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I agree I've helped steer this off topic a bit. But there is so much bull around supplements and diet, I'm surprised not more companies have used this pandemic to promote their products.
Zero999, whilst I don't doubt many supplements contain the stated ingredients (which says nothing about bio-availability, efficacy, or any actual health benefits, such as magnesium oxide, which can't be absorbed), not all contain what they claim: https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/03/revealed-vitamin-supplements-that-dont-contain-what-they-say/ (https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/03/revealed-vitamin-supplements-that-dont-contain-what-they-say/) If they don't contain the specified ingredients, it isn't really a scandal, as there is no direct harm, except perhaps the idea that taking supplements is somehow a substitute for a reasonable healthy lifestyle, preventing people from making changes.
You've pointed out quite a bit of info about vitamin D, its sources, and deficiency, but that implies that you/we know what a deficiency is. I agree those with darker skin or those less exposed to sunlight will make lower amounts, but, does that means that many people are deficient? How many? And what effects does a mild or moderate deficiency have? These are questions I haven't found answers to (either because we just don't know, or I'm crap at googling). Again, I just don't know, I'm not talking about severe deficiency, which in modern times is extremely rare.
The only websites I've seen claiming that there's an epidemic of Vitamin D deficiency were either "wellness" pseudoscience blogs, or ones promoting...ta dah.. their own brand of supplements. So I haven't found what constitutes a deficiency, because quoted blood serum levels vary wildly from less-than-trustworthy websites.
nctnico: That boy in the UK did indeed lose his sight. It was a scandal, and national news because it is so rare that someone would have a deficiency for so long as to cause such harm. You could live on junk food and pretty much get "enough" nutrients to at least not cause severe problems. But apparently had such a restrictive diet that lived on crisps and chips (other food would make him vomit), refused to take supplements (which would have been enough to save his sight at least). But it's also a scandal because the medical authorities let it happen. There could have been many interventions taken, but no-one kept track of the patient for years. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49551337 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49551337)
As for COVID-19, in terms of health myths, this pandemic has had some positive effect - it seems many of those who believe in woo like essential oils have been highlighted as being dangerous by those who are genuinely worried. It won't stop the media and social media jumping the gun with fad diets and "ways to beat covid 19!", but hopefully the seriousness of the situation will make the public less inclined to swallow such crap.
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I agree I've helped steer this off topic a bit. But there is so much bull around supplements and diet, I'm surprised not more companies have used this pandemic to promote their products.
Zero999, whilst I don't doubt many supplements contain the stated ingredients (which says nothing about bio-availability, efficacy, or any actual health benefits, such as magnesium oxide, which can't be absorbed), not all contain what they claim: https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/03/revealed-vitamin-supplements-that-dont-contain-what-they-say/ (https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/03/revealed-vitamin-supplements-that-dont-contain-what-they-say/) If they don't contain the specified ingredients, it isn't really a scandal, as there is no direct harm, except perhaps the idea that taking supplements is somehow a substitute for a reasonable healthy lifestyle, preventing people from making changes.
Well we're talking about vitamin D here and the type found in most supplements is D3, which has excellent bioavailability, especially if it's taken with fatty food, hence why cod liver oil is so popular. It's minerals such as iron and magnesium, as you've mentioned which often have poor bioavailability, not just in some supplements, but also foods: most vitamins are generally readily absorbed.
If the supplement doesn't contain what's listed on the packet, then they're committing fraud, no different to those fake germicidal UV lamps and the authorities should take action.
You've pointed out quite a bit of info about vitamin D, its sources, and deficiency, but that implies that you/we know what a deficiency is. I agree those with darker skin or those less exposed to sunlight will make lower amounts, but, does that means that many people are deficient? How many? And what effects does a mild or moderate deficiency have? These are questions I haven't found answers to (either because we just don't know, or I'm crap at googling). Again, I just don't know, I'm not talking about severe deficiency, which in modern times is extremely rare.
The only websites I've seen claiming that there's an epidemic of Vitamin D deficiency were either "wellness" pseudoscience blogs, or ones promoting...ta dah.. their own brand of supplements. So I haven't found what constitutes a deficiency, because quoted blood serum levels vary wildly from less-than-trustworthy websites.
Yes the optimum vitamin D level is subject to debate, but just stick with the general recommended daily allowance, as a guideline.
As hinted before, we need a the correct immune response. Too much and there's an inflammatory reaction, which harms healthy tissue, too little and the virus wins. It's a fine balance and vitamin D seems to be good at optimising it.
Stick to proper, peer reviewed medical papers, not sites selling things. I admit, I'm not much good at Googling either, some of the papers I linked to previously, were taken from medical YouTubers and not the fake ones but real doctors and nurses.
I agree, there's probably little benefit in taking supplements, if you already have adequate vitamin D levels, but if you're in an at risk group, then it's probably a good idea, unless you've been tested and found to not be deficient.
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The official line on this:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/phe-publishes-new-advice-on-vitamin-d (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/phe-publishes-new-advice-on-vitamin-d)
which says:
PHE advises that in spring and summer, the majority of the population get enough vitamin D through sunlight on the skin and a healthy, balanced diet. During autumn and winter, everyone will need to rely on dietary sources of vitamin D. Since it is difficult for people to meet the 10 microgram recommendation from consuming foods naturally containing or fortified with vitamin D, people should consider taking a daily supplement containing 10 micrograms of vitamin D in autumn and winter.
My emphasis. Additionally, and again my emphasis:
People whose skin has little or no exposure to the sun, like those in institutions such as care homes, or who always cover their skin when outside, risk vitamin D deficiency and need to take a supplement throughout the year. Ethnic minority groups with dark skin, from African, Afro-Caribbean and South Asian backgrounds, may not get enough vitamin D from sunlight in the summer and therefore should consider taking a supplement all year round.
Note that this is pre-covid19 so would apply to normal, healthy people. You can do the maths if, now, we're told we need a bit more than normal to help us along.
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COVID-19 is a once in a lifetime opportunity for drug companies to profit they say. Nothing not nothing is going to rain on their parade.
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I agree, there's probably little benefit in taking supplements, if you already have adequate vitamin D levels, but if you're in an at risk group, then it's probably a good idea, unless you've been tested and found to not be deficient.
The problem with relying on sufficient/deficient levels is that these levels are based on average population data etc. They don't take into account any individual persons immune and other bodily systems, not that you can really determine those to any degree of correlation anyway.
And also levels change very quickly with daily changes in diet etc. Where's the data on what happens if you don't get any sun for a week and also don't happen to eat suitable foods that week, and you get whatever thing is going around. I'd be surprised is that data exists.
Taking supplements even if you have been tested as having "sufficient" levels is just cheap insurance. If you can afford it, it's a no-brainer.
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We get sun here for maybe 2-3 months of the year, so I tend to take vitamin D tablets for a good part of the year then stop in summer. I've experimented with UV-B lamps but I'm not sure what kind of eye protection I should be wearing and never got around to looking further into it so I don't really use it often. I wanted to build a contraption I stick my arms into so it's just shielded from the rest of the environment and just got side tracked and never ended up building it. Not sure how well it would really work anyway and kind of hard to test so I'd be reluctant to stop taking the vitamin D.
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I would hate to be an ISP during this. This is impact of having 4 people at home rather than the usual 1...
(https://imgur.com/aZkoyVR.jpg)
Also free Epic Games :-DD
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Taking supplements even if you have been tested as having "sufficient" levels is just cheap insurance. If you can afford it, it's a no-brainer.
Not quite. Some vitamin supplements are chemical equivalents which don't react exactly the same compared to natural vitamins and your body may reject the natural ones if your body senses it has enough. The very best thing to do is eat healthy with enough sources for natural vitamins and only supplement those which show low levels.
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Also free Epic Games :-DD
Civilization VI FTW! B)
(this is a true time waster for me...)
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So I wanted to stick to the topic of the impacts on our work/businesses by this, and what plans you and your business might have.
Well, if we can generalize "our work" to include anything I feel like doing, whenever I feel like doing it, regardless of what anyone else says thinks or does [the retirement credo that some, like myself, are fortunate enough to live by].... I was reminded of the impact recently.
Where I am at, we are still very much impacted by covid. We are in the initial stages of so-called opening up and have only recently seen a positivity rate drop to under 10%. Many have it much worse and if you have it much better, be thankful and I hope it doesn't change except for the better no matter where you are.
I am building a particular kind of food dehydrator - the description and explanation is too long for this message. But, I was at a point in the build in which I needed to attach some "shelf inserts" into the dehydration chamber.
[attachimg=2]
So, I went to find a tube of silicone cement and I had one that I had used several years ago...
[attachimg=1]
Nothing came out, even after poking whatever I could find down the spout, but I could still feel some plyable content in the tube. Against my better judgement, I cut into the bottom of the tube (you can see the cut in the pick by the brand logo) and sure enough, there was plenty of the stuff to use for the shelf inserts. Except, I learned something ... old silicon glue, while it looks like new silicone glue, does not dry. I mean, literally 10 days later it is still so tacky it can't hold for squat. I don't know the chemistry behind that, maybe the "hardener" chemicals are gone...I don't much care. I had to remove it all and I ended up using some cyanoacrylate and it works...so far.
What does this have to do with covid? Well, pre-covid, I would have tossed the old tube and simply gone to the hardware store and picked up a new tube. In the pandemic, I simply do not do these things ike I used to. Yes, I am adapting and have increased my market trips to one-a-week from one every two weeks and have even met with friends for an outside lunch (with all of the sanitation and distancing). And yes, I have added a tube to my basket for my next mail order. So, it may be a bit of a stretch as an impact on "work", but it has now been enough months that the impact has bled into my current idea of work which includes a much larger mail-order component.
Personally, I believe that we will have an effective monoclonal antibody (MOA) available before this fall (i.e., about 4-5 months). Lilly just went into phase 1 and concurrently ramped up production. MOAs have a history of working and I feel very strongly that they will work against covid. When we actually have an effective treatment (*vir drugs have very limited efficacy in my opinion and please, don't even go on about chloroquine drugs).
Additionally, there is a window for companies to clean up on an MOA that closes significantly with an effective vaccine. Now, who pays for them and how much they pay, well, that is another matter.
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[attachimg=3]
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Lilly is making a gamble by going into production before they know if it works. If the trials fail, what they've produced is worthless. Starting production early does NOT improve the chances of success! If the trials do succeed, they've cut out the usual delay between research and production and they have the only supply, which translates to a huge win.
Shelf life of Silicone Caulk is not much more than 1 year. When buying sealants, it's worth finding the expiration date if you can so you don't get old stuff off the shelf. It's not like food where stretching the date doesn't matter too much. Too-old Silicone doesn't cure properly, as you've found out.
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(Attachment Link)
Er... what's "TP"? Asking for a friend, obvs.
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(Attachment Link)
Er... what's "TP"? Asking for a friend, obvs.
umm TP=toilet paper and the answer to your friend's next question is...I don't know, I'm not from Texas ;D
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I'm back to getting out of the lab for videos, going to interview someone about quantum computing! :-+
Technically their lab is still in "lockdown", so meeting somewhere else.
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Can we stop saying "boost your immune system". It doesn't work like that. You don't "boost" your immune system. To do so would cause auto-immune syndromes. What you can do is make sure you are not suppressing your immune system with poor diet, alcohol, drugs, vitamin deficiency, over weight, stress etc. etc. etc.
Thank you. This myth simply will not die. A "boosted" immune system is an inflammatory immune system: good in the short term for dealing with infection/injury, but causes collateral damage, and in the long term can significantly damage the circulatory system. Thankfully, one cannot actually "boost" it, short of being exposed to lots of pathogens. As as you alluded to, taking a supplement isn't going to improve an immune system that is hindered by poor diet, sleep etc..
This reminds me... Someone I talk to in the local swimming pool every now and then pointed me to a (what turned out to be) anti-carbohydrates video (which is utter nonsense BTW). One of the things they brought up in the video is that a shocking number of people have absolutely no clue what a healthy diet is. They showed some people who where eating food which could be best described as sweetened & salted card board. No wonder these people started to feel better when they started eating real food and not stomage filling. Another example: a while ago I read an article about a teenage boy somewhere in the UK which got permanently blind because he was only eating hamburgers. IOW: don't assume people know what they should eat to stay healthy.
Back in the day (60's) this was taught in school... I still remember the food pyramid, all the different groups you should eat from to stay healthy, etc. - perhaps nowadays teaching this kind of stuff would offend somebody, somewhere, so they don't do it any longer?
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I'm back to getting out of the lab for videos, going to interview someone about quantum computing! :-+
Technically their lab is still in "lockdown", so meeting somewhere else.
Look forward to seeing/hearing that. If ever a subject needed to be explained in a clear and sober way... this is it!
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I agree, there's probably little benefit in taking supplements, if you already have adequate vitamin D levels, but if you're in an at risk group, then it's probably a good idea, unless you've been tested and found to not be deficient.
The problem with relying on sufficient/deficient levels is that these levels are based on average population data etc. They don't take into account any individual persons immune and other bodily systems, not that you can really determine those to any degree of correlation anyway.
And also levels change very quickly with daily changes in diet etc. Where's the data on what happens if you don't get any sun for a week and also don't happen to eat suitable foods that week, and you get whatever thing is going around. I'd be surprised is that data exists.
Taking supplements even if you have been tested as having "sufficient" levels is just cheap insurance. If you can afford it, it's a no-brainer.
My doctor says they can clearly see it in the blood tests - pretty much everyone has Vitamin D deficiency in the winter half of the year, and are OK in summer.
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I would hate to be an ISP during this. This is impact of having 4 people at home rather than the usual 1...
(https://imgur.com/aZkoyVR.jpg)
I'm actually surprised our NBN here has coped with all the video demand.
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TP=toilet paper
My friend says "Duh!" and "Thanks".
Thanks :)
[OK, I fib - my 'friend' is actually my partner, but did say the above really!]
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I'm back to getting out of the lab for videos, going to interview someone about quantum computing! :-+
Technically their lab is still in "lockdown", so meeting somewhere else.
Offtopic: Cool. Maybe you can get a good, clear answer on how quantum computing is supposed to work. A good question would be: how to calculate 1+1 on a quantum computer. That is still unclear to me but I'll admit I did not dive very deep into quantum computing yet.
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I'm actually surprised our NBN here has coped with all the video demand.
In Europe, Netflix has slashed video bitrates to around 1/3rd of what they were to keep up with the added demand.
Makes some 1080p content look really pretty poor.
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1080p from "other sources" is still good :-DD
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how to calculate 1+1 on a quantum computer.
Easy - you calculate n + n, then disregard all the results for which n!=1 :-DD
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Offtopic: Cool. Maybe you can get a good, clear answer on how quantum computing is supposed to work. A good question would be: how to calculate 1+1 on a quantum computer. That is still unclear to me but I'll admit I did not dive very deep into quantum computing yet.
Conventional math will be likely left with conventional computers. Quantum deals with probabilities. You'd probably (no pun intended) don't want to receive an answer in a form of bunch of variants along with probability numbers for each one for being a correct result. ::)
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Offtopic: Cool. Maybe you can get a good, clear answer on how quantum computing is supposed to work. A good question would be: how to calculate 1+1 on a quantum computer. That is still unclear to me but I'll admit I did not dive very deep into quantum computing yet.
Conventional math will be likely left with conventional computers. Quantum deals with probabilities. You'd probably (no pun intended) don't want to receive an answer in a form of bunch of variants along with probability numbers for each one for being a correct result. ::)
So, 1 + 1 is probably 2? :-//
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Dave's interview should be interesting (hopefully), as I'm still not completely sure or convinced "quantum computing" will really be of any practical use, at least before several decades from now.
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Conventional math will be likely left with conventional computers. Quantum deals with probabilities. You'd probably (no pun intended) don't want to receive an answer in a form of bunch of variants along with probability numbers for each one for being a correct result. ::)
So, 1 + 1 is probably 2? :-//
It is going to be highly probable that the result is 2 :D
As Dave says, "Confidence is High, I repeat: confidence is High"
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As Dave says, "Confidence is High, I repeat: confidence is High"
True. I've found people who are high show a massive amount of confidence. :)
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As Dave says, "Confidence is High, I repeat: confidence is High"
True. I've found people who are high show a massive amount of confidence. :)
Your mates do coke?
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As Dave says, "Confidence is High, I repeat: confidence is High"
True. I've found people who are high show a massive amount of confidence. :)
Your mates do coke?
Nah. Everyone has migrated away from using coke to reduce their carbon footprint.
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Here is a real-world example about how covid has changed work. This week I went for a haircut, which I had not had since very early March. It was either get a haircut or start wearing a ponytail or a man bun. The general consensus by my entire environment was that neither of those alternatives was a good idea.
I had tried a bit of self-barbering, but it turned out to be a decidedly poor idea. Having a 'friend' cut my hair was risky, not just covid risk. :)
In the last month, I received two text messages from the place (more of a salon than a bloody pole barbershop - but not too upscale) which I have been going to for many years - they were simply saying that they will reopen as soon as they can. I appreciated the texts because you just don't know whether retail independents have survived "shutdown" (there is the first thing they did right).
I make the appointment and briefly discuss the "changes". I washed my hair before going so that I did not have to have my hair washed as normal. I wore a mask as did the stylist who has cut my hair for several years.
They took my temperature using a non-contact thermometer when I came in - I smiled and silently wondered if they bought it on eBay. There was a large bottle of sanitizer (hand crank) and I could smell the vegetable-based, poorly distilled (my opinion), isopropyl that is now common place. I had brought my own ethyl and they had no problem with me using it instead. I forgot to bring latex or nitrile gloves, but that was not a rule. You could buy masks (which were required) at the counter for US$2.00 - they were the cheapos and that is within the range of the going price around here.
Then I had to answer a bunch of written questions affirmatively and sign the paper. This was basically a promise that I would not sue, that I understood that there was a risk of infection and I had to adhere to all the rules. I know the owner, who was there, and there is no way on earth she came up with any of that. She clearly had simply followed guidance provided by the local government (it wasn't written well enough to be made by a private lawyer).
They had makeshift barriers around the customers and there were only two (including me) at the time.
I wore my mask the whole time, lowering the ear strap when needed. We chatted briefly and he chuckled and said he remembered the last time I was there and how I was telling him that everything was about to change and that I would likely not see him for a while. He also laughed when noticing my self-barbering attempts.
No blow dry and I was in and out quickly. I gave him the usual tip and included the tip for the person who usually washes my hair.
Some might think that these new procedures were ridiculous, unnecessary and ineffective. I note that, as usual, we had more new cases today, in the tiny state in which I live, than the entire country of Canada.
I was happy with everything they were doing and told the owner so...and I also said I will see you soon as I left. Next week, we are scheduled for phase 2 of reopening.
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I had a similar experience at the dentist - first appointment since the crisis. Forms to fill in, temperature taken on arrival, dental staff wearing face shields while working, but the patient (me!) was not wearing a mask for obvious reasons! :-DD
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I had a similar experience at the dentist - first appointment since the crisis. Forms to fill in, temperature taken on arrival, dental staff wearing face shields while working, but the patient (me!) was not wearing a mask for obvious reasons! :-DD
Is a dentist wearing a face shield something new for you? Many have been wearing them since the AIDS epidemic first struck.
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I had a similar experience at the dentist - first appointment since the crisis. Forms to fill in, temperature taken on arrival, dental staff wearing face shields while working, but the patient (me!) was not wearing a mask for obvious reasons! :-DD
Is a dentist wearing a face shield something new for you? Many have been wearing them since the AIDS epidemic first struck.
I wondered about that also and had to think back. Seems like it depends on what they were doing because sometimes they are wearing magnifying ocular devices and not a face shield and other times a face shield. The assisting person would normally be wearing a face shield by my recollection.
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I had a similar experience at the dentist - first appointment since the crisis. Forms to fill in, temperature taken on arrival, dental staff wearing face shields while working, but the patient (me!) was not wearing a mask for obvious reasons! :-DD
Is a dentist wearing a face shield something new for you? Many have been wearing them since the AIDS epidemic first struck.
I don't recall anything more serious than a normal mask. Often enough, not even that.
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Here is a real-world example about how covid has changed work. This week I went for a haircut, which I had not had since very early March. It was either get a haircut or start wearing a ponytail or a man bun. The general consensus by my entire environment was that neither of those alternatives was a good idea.
I had tried a bit of self-barbering, but it turned out to be a decidedly poor idea. Having a 'friend' cut my hair was risky, not just covid risk. :)
My haircuit was less involved. Just a disposable plastic sheet to catch the hair and the hair dresser was wearing a mask. Next week the dentist... they are more serious though. I had to fill out an online form.
And it turns out mink are susceptible to Covid-19 as well and can transfer it onto humans too. They killed over half a million of these animals in the NL during the past few days in order to get rid of the infection hazard. And since breeding mink is going to be banned in the next couple of years it looks like mink farming came to an abrupt end for some farmers due to Covid-19. The article didn't say what they where going to do with the infected cats on the farm.
Part of the story in English:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/coronavirus-rips-through-dutch-mink-farms-triggering-culls-prevent-human-infections (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/coronavirus-rips-through-dutch-mink-farms-triggering-culls-prevent-human-infections)
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Mink might be a good experimental animal to test COVID-19 therapies in. They need better animal models. That would speed up progress a lot I suspect.
And it turns out mink are susceptible to Covid-19 as well and can transfer it onto humans too. They killed over half a million of these animals in the NL during the past few days in order to get rid of the infection hazard. And since breeding mink is going to be banned in the next couple of years it looks like mink farming came to an abrupt end for some farmers due to Covid-19. The article didn't say what they where going to do with the infected cats on the farm.
Part of the story in English:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/coronavirus-rips-through-dutch-mink-farms-triggering-culls-prevent-human-infections (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/coronavirus-rips-through-dutch-mink-farms-triggering-culls-prevent-human-infections)
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Aus government have just announced that Chinese students (in limited numbers, but still a LOT) will be allowed to enter back into the country within a couple of weeks.
Will be interesting to see what happens in a months time.
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I am sure the universities are overjoyed because the funds they receive from foreign students, particularly Chinese students are substantial. Plus, if indeed they have reduced their numbers as much as they claim, the chances of them being sick is smaller than Europeans, South Americans or especially, Americans.
I think the chances of a random American testing positive now are likely higher now than a random Chinese, seriously. And I see photos of people behaving very foolishly so I am sure this epidemic will be with us for a long time to come.
Far more than 1000 people have died in my (small) county alone.
I live in an area that has seen a lot of COVID-19 which is now on the decline, but its only because the area is still - if no longer officially under lockdown, people are still behaving carefully, for the most part, with some exceptions. This area has such a large population, which is now reducing the new infection rate, contains so many of us that it makes the US numbers look far better than they would if you simply removed us from the statistics. And if you want by those numbers, they would be alarming.
But the rest of the US- especially considering that is warmer and transmission is lower when its warm, its scary. I understand some states are basically just pretending its over in them when the epidemic really is just beginning for them, and without testing, they won't know it unless people have better access to tests than they do today. When the weather cools down in the fall we'll likely see the effect of that and it will be very hard to control unless they have better drugs.
Here, people are still staying in, it seems.
Roads still have far less traffic than they had in the recent past. (This area used to have a very bad traffic problem) Now its easy to get around and the restrictions are lifted. But people are not doing what they used to this time of year. they are having "staycations"
For example, most beach towns have put severe restrictions on visitors.
You can tell just from the noise level outdoors. usually there is a constant low level din from traffic and just general activity, now its very quiet and you can hear birds and other animals vocalizations, instead of a constant roar of cars and trucks on the highways.
Its anybody's guess what wil happen, it could go either way. Some other countries where they relaxed restrictions are seeing new cases and deaths rise again.
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Back in the day (60's) this was taught in school... I still remember the food pyramid, all the different groups you should eat from to stay healthy, etc. - perhaps nowadays teaching this kind of stuff would offend somebody, somewhere, so they don't do it any longer?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yCeFmn_e2c (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yCeFmn_e2c)
(/Humor!)
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I am sure the universities are overjoyed because the funds they receive from foreign students, particularly Chinese students are substantial. Plus, if indeed they have reduced their numbers as much as they claim, the chances of them being sick is smaller than Europeans, South Americans or especially, Americans.
I think the chances of a random American testing positive now are likely higher now than a random Chinese, seriously. And I see photos of people behaving very foolishly so I am sure this epidemic will be with us for a long time to come.
Far more than 1000 people have died in my (small) county alone.
I live in an area that has seen a lot of COVID-19 which is now on the decline, but its only because the area is still - if no longer officially under lockdown, people are still behaving carefully, for the most part, with some exceptions. This area has such a large population, which is now reducing the new infection rate, contains so many of us that it makes the US numbers look far better than they would if you simply removed us from the statistics. And if you want by those numbers, they would be alarming.
But the rest of the US- especially considering that is warmer and transmission is lower when its warm, its scary. I understand some states are basically just pretending its over in them when the epidemic really is just beginning for them, and without testing, they won't know it unless people have better access to tests than they do today. When the weather cools down in the fall we'll likely see the effect of that and it will be very hard to control unless they have better drugs.
Here, people are still staying in, it seems.
Roads still have far less traffic than they had in the recent past. (This area used to have a very bad traffic problem) Now its easy to get around and the restrictions are lifted. But people are not doing what they used to this time of year. they are having "staycations"
For example, most beach towns have put severe restrictions on visitors.
You can tell just from the noise level outdoors. usually there is a constant low level din from traffic and just general activity, now its very quiet and you can hear birds and other animals vocalizations, instead of a constant roar of cars and trucks on the highways.
Its anybody's guess what wil happen, it could go either way. Some other countries where they relaxed restrictions are seeing new cases and deaths rise again.
They are hoping for a vaccine and/or a treatment by the fall, I guess. It's a gamble, but it is not impossible that it could pay off.
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They are hoping for a vaccine and/or a treatment by the fall, I guess. It's a gamble, but it is not impossible that it could pay off.
These are the kind of people who keep lotteries in business.
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In the US, we are seeing some sharp rises in daily new cases in some places – sometimes the new case counts are the highest ever observed and with positivity rates well above 10%. News media selectively makes the attributions quickly or, on the other “side”, seemingly ignores it altogether.
[attachimg=1]
(from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage))
In the US, the perceived risk is clearly delineated by political party. Republicans are far more likely to downplay the risk and to desire a speedy and complete reopening. Democrats estimate the risk as being greater, and while wanting reopening also, they want it to be slower and to be more systematic/cautious. State and Local governments also vary widely on when they “closed” and when they “reopened” and by how much.
The case fatality rate, however, continues to decline. Around the time that the US hit 100K fatalities, a study reported that 40K deaths were related to nursing homes, long term care facilities and the like. That amazed me as I knew that the elderly are the most vulnerable population, but I had not realized that institutionally, it made up 40% of the fatalities (not all elderly people are in rest homes). I think that we finally have a handle on that situation - isolation, testing and tracing - and maybe combined with some better triage and treatment protocols.
It will be morbidly interesting to see if fatality rates rise along with new cases in those areas where we are seeing them. I don't think the increase will be as proportional as earlier.
As I stated earlier, I do think that we will have a monoclonal antibody treatment by the fall (by the end of the fall). It will be effective and it will be something of a game changer particularly with respect to school openings for the new year. Within a few months of the first, there will be several more, but with some big issues surrounding costs. This, I predict, will be a big election issue as part of healthcare that people can relate to easily. Who gets them and who pays and how much?
An effective vaccine is much further down the road in my view (I hope I am wrong).
It will also be morbidly interesting to see if we observe any rollbacks in opening up. I would think that this is going to, again, fall along political lines.
As long as we keep some integrity in the data collection, I think we will be able to refine how we re-open Even in my own behavior, I am adjusting my acceptable risk and I think everybody is to some extent. I mentioned getting a haircut earlier and yesterday I went to a hardware store to get parts to fix a dripping faucet (three hours of online research and then get in and get out), I didn’t want to wait a week or two for the wrong part to arrive.
There may be more home cooking and gardening in the US than ever.
I can’t even keep up with what is happening in places like Brazil and elsewhere. It is stressful and I cope by trying to restrict my interests to more local concerns and limit the number of study reports that I read.
I also think that high unemployment and the summer weather, combined with lower likelihood of hospitalization for young adults, does a lot toward reinforcing a lot of fears that I have.
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Can we stop saying "boost your immune system". It doesn't work like that. You don't "boost" your immune system. To do so would cause auto-immune syndromes. What you can do is make sure you are not suppressing your immune system with poor diet, alcohol, drugs, vitamin deficiency, over weight, stress etc. etc. etc.
Thank you. This myth simply will not die. A "boosted" immune system is an inflammatory immune system: good in the short term for dealing with infection/injury, but causes collateral damage, and in the long term can significantly damage the circulatory system. Thankfully, one cannot actually "boost" it, short of being exposed to lots of pathogens. As as you alluded to, taking a supplement isn't going to improve an immune system that is hindered by poor diet, sleep etc..
This reminds me... Someone I talk to in the local swimming pool every now and then pointed me to a (what turned out to be) anti-carbohydrates video (which is utter nonsense BTW). One of the things they brought up in the video is that a shocking number of people have absolutely no clue what a healthy diet is. They showed some people who where eating food which could be best described as sweetened & salted card board. No wonder these people started to feel better when they started eating real food and not stomage filling. Another example: a while ago I read an article about a teenage boy somewhere in the UK which got permanently blind because he was only eating hamburgers. IOW: don't assume people know what they should eat to stay healthy.
Back in the day (60's) this was taught in school... I still remember the food pyramid, all the different groups you should eat from to stay healthy, etc. - perhaps nowadays teaching this kind of stuff would offend somebody, somewhere, so they don't do it any longer?
The food pyramid makes sense, even though it has received some criticism in recent years especially because it contains dairy, which isn't necessary and many people believe humans didn't evolved to eat grains, which they deem to be responsible for the obesity epidemic. In reality, humans have consumed dairy and grains long before obesity became widespread.
Many people fuss a lot about diet, but the human body is very adaptable and can be fuelled by a wide range of diets. All that's needed is adequate, but not excessive energy intake, whether this is mostly from fats or carbohydrates makes little difference, enough protein and essential micronutrients. As long as you don't overdose on toxins, fat soluble vitamins or have severe imbalances in some minerals you'll be fine.
The amount of fat vs carbohydrate in the diet has historically depended on the latitude of the population, with those living nearer the pole consuming most of their energy in the form of fat, to carbohydrates in the tropics.
I agree, there's probably little benefit in taking supplements, if you already have adequate vitamin D levels, but if you're in an at risk group, then it's probably a good idea, unless you've been tested and found to not be deficient.
The problem with relying on sufficient/deficient levels is that these levels are based on average population data etc. They don't take into account any individual persons immune and other bodily systems, not that you can really determine those to any degree of correlation anyway.
And also levels change very quickly with daily changes in diet etc. Where's the data on what happens if you don't get any sun for a week and also don't happen to eat suitable foods that week, and you get whatever thing is going around. I'd be surprised is that data exists.
Taking supplements even if you have been tested as having "sufficient" levels is just cheap insurance. If you can afford it, it's a no-brainer.
I wholeheartedly agree. Even though we don't have 100% proof in the form of a double blind, randomised, placebo, controlled trial on vitamin D and COVID-19, there's no harm in taking the recommended dose and there's plenty of evidence to support it reducing the risk of severe disease.
One interesting thing about skin colour, vitamin D and latitude is how the inuits are darker skinned than Europeans, because their diet is high in vitamin D, they kept their nice golden skin colour, which no doubt protects them against sun burn, in the short summer season. I suppose Europeans also have plenty of time in the spring for us to build a protective tan for summer, whist more polar regions tend to only have a few weeks of warm enough weather for people to take enough of their clothes off to burn.
https://scienceline.org/2007/06/ask-dricoll-inuiteskimos/
Some of the pictures of their fur coats on Wikipedia look great.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inuit#/media/File:Inuit-Kleidung_1.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inuit#/media/File:Inupiat_Family_from_Noatak,_Alaska,_1929,_Edward_S._Curtis_(restored).jpg
EDIT: I'm not endorsing fur. They would have used the whole of the animal, rather than just killing for furn.
Anyway back on topic: I'm still struggling a bit at work, especially keeping away from some of my colleagues who seem to have regular corona parties. The health and safety manager did send out an email remaining everyone of social distancing and that the virus has not gone away. Although in theory whole teams shouldn't need to go off to self-isolate, just because one of them has tested positive, I think in reality they will need to, due to the lack of social distancing. To be fair sometimes it's impossible to do a job, whilst maintaining an adequate distance. Masks are provided, but there's only a limited supply. On the other hand one department I know of has lots of members of staff who are very close friends and can't seem to social distance. I'd be in favour of breaking them up, whenever possible.
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The food pyramid makes sense, even though it has received some criticism in recent years especially because it contains dairy, which isn't necessary and many people believe humans didn't evolved to eat grains, which they deem to be responsible for the obesity epidemic. In reality, humans have consumed dairy and grains long before obesity became widespread.
Offtopic: not just that. The people against grains confuse inventing agriculture with actually eating grains which likely happened forever otherwise agriculture wouldn't have been invented. :palm: 5G loonies are nothing in comparison.
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The food pyramid makes sense.
The key problem with the food pyramid is the name. Pyramid suggests a really large pile of food, which is exactly the interpretation the people who most need education about their diet are predisposed to see. :).
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As I stated earlier, I do think that we will have a monoclonal antibody treatment by the fall (by the end of the fall). It will be effective and it will be something of a game changer particularly with respect to school openings for the new year. Within a few months of the first, there will be several more, but with some big issues surrounding costs. This, I predict, will be a big election issue as part of healthcare that people can relate to easily. Who gets them and who pays and how much?
An effective vaccine is much further down the road in my view (I hope I am wrong).
It will also be morbidly interesting to see if we observe any rollbacks in opening up. I would think that this is going to, again, fall along political lines.
End of Fall (September 22 to December 21st in the USA) is too late for it to be much of a election issue. Election ends November 3rd, but many votes will get cast by mail or early voting days to weeks before that, so even the start of Fall may be too late for election purposes.
As for who should get them first if it works: First responders and healthcare workers. And if schools are opening, the teachers, unless you don't mind not having enough teachers showing up to operate schools.
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Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?
In the US, we are seeing some sharp rises in daily new cases in some places – sometimes the new case counts are the highest ever observed and with positivity rates well above 10%. News media selectively makes the attributions quickly or, on the other “side”, seemingly ignores it altogether.
(Attachment Link)
(from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage))
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Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?
Lots of older people who are vulnerable, lots of conservatives who think Covid is a liberal conspiracy, lots of dense retirement communities which have typically been especially hard hit in other areas. That's my speculation anyway.
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As I stated earlier, I do think that we will have a monoclonal antibody treatment by the fall (by the end of the fall). It will be effective and it will be something of a game changer particularly with respect to school openings for the new year. Within a few months of the first, there will be several more, but with some big issues surrounding costs. This, I predict, will be a big election issue as part of healthcare that people can relate to easily. Who gets them and who pays and how much?
An effective vaccine is much further down the road in my view (I hope I am wrong).
It will also be morbidly interesting to see if we observe any rollbacks in opening up. I would think that this is going to, again, fall along political lines.
End of Fall (September 22 to December 21st in the USA) is too late for it to be much of a election issue. Election ends November 3rd, but many votes will get cast by mail or early voting days to weeks before that, so even the start of Fall may be too late for election purposes.
As for who should get them first if it works: First responders and healthcare workers. And if schools are opening, the teachers, unless you don't mind not having enough teachers showing up to operate schools.
I think that things can happen well before mail voting starts - as long as positive effects are being found, which could be as early as August.
It is a healthcare issue and what if the doses are 1K each and you need 2-3 (I am COMPLETELY guessing)? Do only people with the $$$ get it or only people with the right healthcare, or some healthcare can get it for a $20 co-pay? I don't even want to think about prioritizing a list.
But yes, I am just guessing about these things and when they might show up and I am trying to be optimistic.
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Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?
Lots of older people who are vulnerable, lots of conservatives who think Covid is a liberal conspiracy, lots of dense retirement communities which have typically been especially hard hit in other areas. That's my speculation anyway.
...and things like this that get reported loudly....
Arizona Governor Won't Require Mask Use as Coronavirus Cases Spike, Says People Need to 'Learn to Live' With Virus https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-governor-wont-require-mask-use-coronavirus-cases-spike-says-people-need-learn-live-1510713 (https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-governor-wont-require-mask-use-coronavirus-cases-spike-says-people-need-learn-live-1510713)
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Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?
Lots of older people who are vulnerable, lots of conservatives who think Covid is a liberal conspiracy, lots of dense retirement communities which have typically been especially hard hit in other areas. That's my speculation anyway.
...and things like this that get reported loudly....
Arizona Governor Won't Require Mask Use as Coronavirus Cases Spike, Says People Need to 'Learn to Live' With Virus https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-governor-wont-require-mask-use-coronavirus-cases-spike-says-people-need-learn-live-1510713 (https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-governor-wont-require-mask-use-coronavirus-cases-spike-says-people-need-learn-live-1510713)
It seems like Arizona's mistake was to simply remove the stay at home order. More successful governments have gradually eased restrictions on social distancing, replacing them with other more targetted measures such as test and trace.
Mask wearing should be part of living with the virus, limiting its spread and protecting the vulnerable.
Anyway, I heard some good news the other day. My colleague's daughter who's nearly 21, had no underlying health conditions, yet was hospitalised with severe pneumonia, due to secondary bacterial infection, as a result of a weakened immune system from COVID-19, is returning home this weekend. It was touch and go whether she'd see her 21st birthday at one stage, but fortunately she pulled through. Hopefully she'll make a full recovery, but it'll take time. She was worried about not being able to finish hew dissertation, but the university know about her illness and have given her an extension.
The young shouldn't be complacent. The case fatality rate is probably 0.1% in the 20 year old, female demographic, but that's with access to good healthcare and that percentage would still lead to a large number of excess deaths, if COVID-19 were left to run riot.
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Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?
In the US, we are seeing some sharp rises in daily new cases in some places – sometimes the new case counts are the highest ever observed and with positivity rates well above 10%. News media selectively makes the attributions quickly or, on the other “side”, seemingly ignores it altogether.
(Attachment Link)
(from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage))
It isn't often we get to see in near real time, the effects of policy decisions...
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Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?
Lots of older people who are vulnerable, lots of conservatives who think Covid is a liberal conspiracy, lots of dense retirement communities which have typically been especially hard hit in other areas. That's my speculation anyway.
Is it because the snow birds are migrating?
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This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...
UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.
"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models)
"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."
https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues (https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues)
Fail > :-BROKE
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It really is an incredible failure given Google/Apple had said the NHS solution was "unworkable" 3 months ago. Hey, perhaps listen to the experts? Mr. Gove has told us in the past though that we are "sick of listening to the experts"...
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This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...
UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.
"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models)
"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."
https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues (https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues)
Fail > :-BROKE
Probably not the fault of NHS developers. Apple bluetooth stuff is fairly closed and Apple engineers will always have "first dibs" at making things work, so if there is a big market for something, it won't be the third party developers that get the easiest ride.
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This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...
UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.
"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models)
"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."
https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues (https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues)
Fail > :-BROKE
Probably not the fault of NHS developers. Apple bluetooth stuff is fairly closed and Apple engineers will always have "first dibs" at making things work, so if there is a big market for something, it won't be the third party developers that get the easiest ride.
They were told 3 months ago why they would fail, and they proposed no cunning plan to workaround the problem they were presented with.
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Mr. Gove has told us in the past though that we are "sick of listening to the experts"...
What he acutally said was:
I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.
Which is rather different to the misquote you are (hopefully) unwittingly promulgating. Given the context in which he was speaking, your version is even more adrift from reality.
He is, IMO, a shameless and disloyal toad (even for a politician) but sticking made-up stuff on him just dilutes his the real stuff.
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This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...
UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.
"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models)
"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."
https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues (https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues)
Fail > :-BROKE
Probably not the fault of NHS developers. Apple bluetooth stuff is fairly closed and Apple engineers will always have "first dibs" at making things work, so if there is a big market for something, it won't be the third party developers that get the easiest ride.
They were told 3 months why they would fail, and they proposed no cunning plan to workaround the problem they were presented with.
Winners never quit, and Quitters never win - but if you never quit and you never win, you are an idiot!
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Mr. Gove has told us in the past though that we are "sick of listening to the experts"...
What he acutally said was:
I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.
Which is rather different to the misquote you are (hopefully) unwittingly promulgating. Given the context in which he was speaking, your version is even more adrift from reality.
He is, IMO, a shameless and disloyal toad (even for a politician) but sticking made-up stuff on him just dilutes his the real stuff.
The problem with Gove's statement is - what is the alternative? Non-expert, populist politicians saying that they know what is best... and getting it consistently wrong?
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And now for something completely different...
Months ago I ordered a ton of stuff on AliExpress and I expected it to never show up. The shipping window (before being eligible for a refund) was closing. All of a sudden I get two items yesterday (magnifying lamp and aluminzed ESD bags) and another one (FY6900 60 MHz AWG) today. Ha! A couple of days ago I got tired of waiting so I bought a Rigol DG1022 20 MHz AWG off of eBay.
Looks like there's going to be a function generator shoot-out in the duckduck lab ;-)
My point in writing this post is to speculate about shipping from China. Maybe they are starting to catch up now, or a plane-load hit (or a boat-load?)?
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This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...
UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.
"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models)
"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."
https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues (https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues)
Fail > :-BROKE
Probably not the fault of NHS developers. Apple bluetooth stuff is fairly closed and Apple engineers will always have "first dibs" at making things work, so if there is a big market for something, it won't be the third party developers that get the easiest ride.
They were told 3 months ago why they would fail, and they proposed no cunning plan to workaround the problem they were presented with.
Many phones purposely randomize their MAC to avoid being tracked..
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The uk track n trace wasnt a failure,it made a nice wedge of cash for a few and gave them access to lots of data they can sell off to the highest bidder.
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A concise report on the UK's covid app u-turn from MacWorld:
Apparently the original app was able to judge the distance between two users, but wasn’t good at identifying iPhones - it was only capturing details from 4% of iPhones compared to 75% of Android handsets.
The Apple/Google option, on-the-other-hand, logged 99% of Androids and iPhones
https://www.macworld.co.uk/news/apple/how-covid-tracing-will-work-on-your-iphone-protect-your-privacy-3787408/ (https://www.macworld.co.uk/news/apple/how-covid-tracing-will-work-on-your-iphone-protect-your-privacy-3787408/)
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Many phones purposely randomize their MAC to avoid being tracked..
The failure was down to apps not working in the background on Apple devices, hence not being able to sniff BT devices unless the phone is awake and the screen on. Nothing to do with the MAC (a GUID was used to identify passing phones).
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Many phones purposely randomize their MAC to avoid being tracked..
The failure was down to apps not working in the background on Apple devices, hence not being able to sniff BT devices unless the phone is awake and the screen on. Nothing to do with the MAC (a GUID was used to identify passing phones).
My understanding is there is no official API to allow that to happen, but - magically - the Apple developed software is able to do it. No abuse of monopoly position there, then.
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For those who don't like the idea of tracking, wouldn't it be fairly easy to build a device that can receive the tracking signal from a much greater range than intended and then repeat the signal for a much greater range than intended? Then have those devices participate in a mesh network and spread the signal even further. Basically break it by generating tons of false positives.
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For those who don't like the idea of tracking, wouldn't it be fairly easy to build a device that can receive the tracking signal from a much greater range than intended and then repeat the signal for a much greater range than intended? Then have those devices participate in a mesh network and spread the signal even further. Basically break it by generating tons of false positives.
I've found the best way to deal with the intrusiveness is to just turn the phone off! Then deal with the voicemail and messages when you turn it back on. Makes the battery last much longer too!
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UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.
Typical uk goverbent,they always forget tiny little details,like talking to apple.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53105642 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53105642)
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BBC: "However, the BBC has discovered that one of the main reasons the initiative is running behind schedule is that developers are having problems using Bluetooth as a means to estimate distance."
Yup, thats what the inventors of BTLE were saying too.. that it was literally impossible to use it how they claimed they were going to.
China must have been bullshitting people.
UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.
Typical uk goverbent,they always forget tiny little details,like talking to apple.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53105642 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53105642)
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Yup, thats what the inventors of BTLE were saying too.. that it was literally impossible to use it how they claimed they were going to.
That must be why the Proximity Profile spec is really hard to find, then.
Oh, wait... PXP at bluetooth.org (https://www.bluetooth.org/DocMan/handlers/DownloadDoc.ashx?doc_id=303199)
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For anyone playing at home, the BBC offers a timeline into the failure of the UK's Covid tracking app development.
Coronavirus: What went wrong with the UK's contact tracing app? By Rory Cellan-Jones
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53114251 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53114251)
Meanwhile on Github, contributors to the NHSX covid iOS app are wondering why the new wonder "hybrid" app is not in a public repo? https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-iOS-BETA/issues/33 (https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-iOS-BETA/issues/33)
Back in April there was a workable api platform and developers who would have built a tracking app for free. Instead months later and millions of pounds spent, all that has been achieved is yet another British public sector I.T. project failure :palm:
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For anyone playing at home, the BBC offers a timeline into the failure of the UK's Covid tracking app development.
Coronavirus: What went wrong with the UK's contact tracing app? By Rory Cellan-Jones
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53114251 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53114251)
Meanwhile on Github, contributors to the NHSX covid iOS app are wondering why the new wonder "hybrid" app is not in a public repo? https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-iOS-BETA/issues/33 (https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-iOS-BETA/issues/33)
Back in April there was a workable api platform and developers who would have built a tracking app for free. Instead months later and millions of pounds spent, all that has been achieved is yet another British public sector I.T. project failure :palm:
When ideology comes into the picture, pragmatism often evaporates.
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Why did they spend all this time and energy on an idea that a 10 year old could have told them at the beginning wouldn't work? (and it seems Apple and Google recently told them but they are trying to spin it so it wouldnt be as obvious how stupid they were)
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Thats what they said in the other thread and I linked to it in the very first post, and if you read this most recent article Apple and Google said it too, that its impossible to tell if people were close enough to catch covid 19 indoors or not. Sources doesnt get any more authoritative than authors of the protocol.
Something thats used for medical use is a lot different than something thats used to unlock your screensaver or ring your mobile when you are at your desk
Yup, thats what the inventors of BTLE were saying too.. that it was literally impossible to use it how they claimed they were going to.
That must be why the Proximity Profile spec is really hard to find, then.
Oh, wait... PXP at bluetooth.org (https://www.bluetooth.org/DocMan/handlers/DownloadDoc.ashx?doc_id=303199)
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Yup, thats what the inventors of BTLE were saying too.. that it was literally impossible to use it how they claimed they were going to.
That must be why the Proximity Profile spec is really hard to find, then.
Oh, wait... PXP at bluetooth.org (https://www.bluetooth.org/DocMan/handlers/DownloadDoc.ashx?doc_id=303199)
Shame how on Apple iOS it doesn't work unless the app is on and in focus on the screen 100% of the time, which is how 0% of people use their phone.
That was one of the huge issues that made the Aussie tracing app useless.
There was talk that Apple had to release some sort or toolkit to allow it but had not done so last I heard.
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Yup, thats what the inventors of BTLE were saying too.. that it was literally impossible to use it how they claimed they were going to.
That must be why the Proximity Profile spec is really hard to find, then.
Oh, wait... PXP at bluetooth.org (https://www.bluetooth.org/DocMan/handlers/DownloadDoc.ashx?doc_id=303199)
Shame how on Apple iOS it doesn't work unless the app is on and in focus on the screen 100% of the time, which is how 0% of people use their phone.
That was one of the huge issues that made the Aussie tracing app useless.
There was talk that Apple had to release some sort or toolkit to allow it but had not done so last I heard.
Apple's Bluetooth (BLE) implementation is very restrictive. Android is better, but can be flaky and there are quite big differences in real world behaviour between different phones and OS revisions. BLE isn't yet "industrial strength".
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Over here the contact tracking app is about to be field tested. BTW In the NL the lockdown will be ended next week except for clubs and large events. This is much sooner than expected; so far the dot on the horizon was set at the 1st of September. Social distancing, testing and contact tracing will be used to prevent & monitor spread of Covid-19.
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We also just released our own Covid-App... which is voluntary... and may cause you to loose Income if you have to go quarantine because you were linked with someone who has had it without being sick yourself.
:palm: :palm: :palm:
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Shame how on Apple iOS it doesn't work unless the app is on and in focus on the screen 100% of the time, which is how 0% of people use their phone.
That was one of the huge issues that made the Aussie tracing app useless.
There was talk that Apple had to release some sort or toolkit to allow it but had not done so last I heard.
That's weird because when the phone is linked via BT with a device that's on, in range and connected (*), the MAC is visible and there's no way to avoid it IIANM.
On the other hand, if BT is enabled but there's no active BT connection, that's when the iPhones randomize the MAC to avoid being tracked, or at least that's what I've heard.
(*) Usually those white worms that pop out of the ears of all apple fanboyz.
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Not sure if everyone will get this short clip, but it is clever, I think. On the old TV sit-com Parks and Recreation, they had a reoccurring plot scenario of a town hall meeting where all these outrageous characters expressed themselves. That is what is going on here EXCEPT spliced in our actual scenes from a Town Hall Meeting where a face covering mandate was passed...in a county in Florida, a state that had almost 9000 new cases today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbF-LAJPwDA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbF-LAJPwDA)
and let me not forget my Brit friends, seen here, exemplifying both the need for wearing face coverings and social distancing:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/football/liverpool-fans-police-criticize-gathering-anfield-title-win-spt-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/football/liverpool-fans-police-criticize-gathering-anfield-title-win-spt-intl/index.html)
Yep, we got this thing licked!
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I thought we were still working under the assumption that everyone will catch it and we just want hospitals available for when people need them? If that's still the modus operandi then I don't see how new cases matter. We can have a million cases a day if they don't overwhelm the hospitals.
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I thought we were still working under the assumption that everyone will catch it and we just want hospitals available for when people need them? If that's still the modus operandi then I don't see how new cases matter. We can have a million cases a day if they don't overwhelm the hospitals.
Because it's a boogeyman, and people from all walks of life and the media and especially politicians have realised that fear gives them various powers, and people like power and being seen to "do things". And of course it can kill the elderly and other vulnerable people (just like the flu), so if you don't support all draconian measures to stop it then you must like people dying, obviously.
No one was thinking that when millions died of the flu every year, because, reasons...
My state NSW has single digit cases a day (and many zero days recently), yet it's still managed as if it's a crisis that will spiral out of control and infect everyone and kill X percent of those if it's not micro managed. This could go on for years. Open your borders and you are guaranteed a little spike again and the cycle repeats.
Most of the stuff was justified at the start because we knew very little about it, but as time goes on and we learn more, at some point we are just going to have to start treating this as just yet another seasonal flu type thing, otherwise we require that "new normal" society were no one shakes hands or hugs any more etc, and that's depressing. I don't see that happening in practice though, eventually people are just going to say "bugger it" and life will return to relative normality.
But yes, realistically it seems that everyone will eventually catch it whether they know it or not.
Quite some time back I tweeted about those "social distancing" floor stickers in shopping centres etc and pondered what we'll think in 20-30 years time if you find one in an old abandoned shopping mall and you think, "wow, remember back when social distancing was a thing!"
Of course, YMMV. Easy to say in a country that has had little impact from this of course.
I'm not sure about overseas, but here practically zero resources have been spent on protecting the vulnerable. All the effort seems to go into stopping Joe Average getting it. Seems arse backwards to me :-//
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I thought we were still working under the assumption that everyone will catch it and we just want hospitals available for when people need them? If that's still the modus operandi then I don't see how new cases matter. We can have a million cases a day if they don't overwhelm the hospitals.
Hospitals in hot spots ARE being filled to capacity.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospital-capacity-crosses-tipping-point-in-u-s-coronavirus-hot-spots-11585215006 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospital-capacity-crosses-tipping-point-in-u-s-coronavirus-hot-spots-11585215006) https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/florida-doctor-covid-hospitals-now.html (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/florida-doctor-covid-hospitals-now.html) or just do a search for hospital capacity in hot spots.
I don't know who you mean by "we", but here is an alternative to your assumption "that everyone will catch it and we just want hospitals available for when people need them".
Lets test a whole lot of people and identify who has the virus and make sure that they are quarantined and hospitalized if necessary / possible. Let's trace all of their recent contacts and test them and do the same with the positives.
Let's practice reasonable NPI which includes social distancing and face coverings to minimize the infections.
Let's keep going like that until we have more effective treatments and an effective vaccine, knowing that doing so for a relatively short time means that an economic recovery will occur much quicker and failing to do so will just extend the misery and destruction.
That is what I thought 'we' wanted.
Of course, the 9000 new cases in Florida just today are more than 1000 the number of cases than Australia has ever seen over the entire course of the pandemic. Yet, seeing a few double digit outbreaks starts people there thinking about a second wave https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0626/1149750-australia-toilet-roll/. (https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0626/1149750-australia-toilet-roll/.)
Here, it just means that it is time to go to the beach. So, I guess it just all depends on the who the 'we' are.
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Unidentified pronouns such as "we" and "they" don't belong in serious subjects on international forums. It's absolutely guaranteed that a significant portion of the readers will not know which group you are referring to. Just say who you mean directly.
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My state NSW has single digit cases a day (and many zero days recently), yet it's still managed as if it's a crisis that will spiral out of control
You're beginning to sound like Trump when, with just 15 cases nationwide, he said it would miraculously disappear, not a problem, just a bit of flu.
As an engineer you should realise that this is a great example of delayed feedback. There is around 2 weeks between stuffing a beach with bodies and seeing an increase in cases. So, yes, to prevent it going out of control you do have to hit it hard early since if you react when it's bad it's going to end up MUCH worse than you thought. Our 60+K excess deaths in six months shows what can happen if you dither for a week or so before getting your act in gear.
New Zealand shows that if you don't fuck about being wishy-washy you can return to real normality pretty quickly.
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My state NSW has single digit cases a day (and many zero days recently), yet it's still managed as if it's a crisis that will spiral out of control
You're beginning to sound like Trump when, with just 15 cases nationwide, he said it would miraculously disappear, not a problem, just a bit of flu.
Bugger off with your ridiculous comparison, they aren't even remotely comparable statements.
As an engineer you should realise that this is a great example of delayed feedback. There is around 2 weeks between stuffing a beach with bodies and seeing an increase in cases.
I'm well aware of that. We have had schools back fully for almost a month now, and gyms back for two weeks, plus a ton of other stuff open, people packing restaurants again for many weeks now. essentially zero new cases.
The great fear was schools, being the germ breeding ground that they are, but nothing has happened so far after that time, so seem to be saying something.
Based on the data we have now and the measures in place and general awareness (and fear), I can't really see any major wave up again here. But we'll no doubt be playing whack-a-mole for a long time. Although if we let 100,000 Chinese students back in, well...
Most of our new cases for the last month have been overseas travelers coming in, except for a recent spat in Victoria in the last few days.
If anyone is going to propose some 2nd wave doomsday scenario here based on the data we have now and the size and circumstances of our first wave, then they'd want to come up with a damn good hypothesis of how that's going to magically happen.
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Our 60+K excess deaths in six months shows what can happen if you dither for a week or so before getting your act in gear.
If there is one thing this whole saga has shown it's that you can't and shouldn't compare countries. There seems to be a slew of parametric differences between countries, cultures, cities, and even possible physiological differences etc.
Again, we had a peak of 200 new cases a day here in NSW before it was knocked on the head very quickly and dropped away to bugger-all, and that's with our general she'll-be-right attitude here (e.g. hardly any masks, yobbo's still packing out beaches during the peak of it etc). If someone wants to propose it's going to much worse than that a 2nd time around then please present the hypothesis why and how that might happen.
This isn't some denial about it all, or wishful thinking, just based on the existing data here. YMMV greatly.
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As an engineer you should realise that this is a great example of delayed feedback. There is around 2 weeks between stuffing a beach with bodies and seeing an increase in cases.
I'm well aware of that. We have had schools back fully for almost a month now, and gyms back for two weeks, plus a ton of other stuff open, people packing restaurants again for many weeks now. essentially zero new cases.
The great fear was schools, being the germ breeding ground that they are, but nothing has happened so far after that time, so seem to be saying something.
Based on the data we have now and the measures in place and general awareness (and fear), I can't really see any major wave up again here. But we'll no doubt be playing whack-a-mole for a long time. Although if we let 100,000 Chinese students back in, well...
Most of our new cases for the last month have been overseas travelers coming in, except for a recent spat in Victoria in the last few days.
If anyone is going to propose some 2nd wave doomsday scenario here based on the data we have now and the size and circumstances of our first wave, then they'd want to come up with a damn good hypothesis of how that's going to magically happen.
Yep. You can take Germany as an example: they have localised areas where Covid-19 flares up again but with lots of testing in place it is possible to do targeted local lock-downs which seem to be effective (combined with social distancing in general). All in all I tend to agree a second wave is unlikely to happen in countries which have Covid-19 under control and people adhere to social distancing rules and do large scale testing. For a second wave to happen a really large number of people will have to abandon the social distancing.
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One really interesting thing is that the WHO are supposedly now saying that transmission via surfaces is uncommon, as is transmission from asymptomatic people. If so then that should make it pretty easy to contain in places that have already contained it through whatever mechanism.
Although again, there seems to great differences between counties that doesn't seem correlate with that, so it's still puzzling. I don't get the US stats at all, they seem crazy high, and from what I gather everyone over there is wearing masks like crazy.
I think there is likely to be a whole lot more going on with how this whole mechanism works that we don't know about yet, and why countries like Australia have been hardly hit at all. It's not like we have small cities and are ultra-paranoid about it, quite the opposite.
It's fascinating stuff, an analytical statisticians wet dream.
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The case rate for Florida doesn't look great:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/
4th July is coming up, too. And people are protesting over the requirement to wear masks (the fact that POTUS has said they are "stupid" really doesn't help)
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One really interesting thing is that the WHO are supposedly now saying that transmission via surfaces is uncommon, as is transmission from asymptomatic people. If so then that should make it pretty easy to contain in places that have already contained it through whatever mechanism.
Although again, there seems to great differences between counties that doesn't seem correlate with that, so it's still puzzling. I don't get the US stats at all, they seem crazy high, and from what I gather everyone over there is wearing masks like crazy.
You have to realise that a mask only helps against transmitting Covid-19; it doesn't help against receiving it because a mask doesn't cover your eyes. Eyes are (internally) directly connected to the nose. In theory one infected person without a mask can infect several people wearing a mask. For example if they travel together in a bus or visit a crowded place. I suspect that a large number of people are still attending large gatherings like churches in the US. Ofcourse the total lack of leadership in the US doesn't help either to make people understand what they should or shouldn't do.
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All praise sneezus 8)
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You have to realise that a mask only helps against transmitting Covid-19; it doesn't help against receiving it because a mask doesn't cover your eyes. Eyes are (internally) directly connected to the nose. In theory one infected person without a mask can infect several people wearing a mask. For example if they travel together in a bus or visit a crowded place. I suspect that a large number of people are still attending large gatherings like churches in the US. Ofcourse the total lack of leadership in the US doesn't help either to make people understand what they should or shouldn't do.
If a mask doesn't give 100% protection its useless is really dumb thinking. Most infections start through the nose, so even if you haven't protected your eyes you have still reduced the likelihood of getting infected when you apply a suitable mask correctly, especially of you make the mask fit snuggly above your nose, ensuring the air flow due to breathing is not being drawn past your eyes. Partial protection is all any single measure gives you. Some reduce it a lot. Some reduce it a little. A surgeon doesn't say "I've got gloves on, so I don't need to wash my hands" (well, perhaps a few do, but I'd really try to avoid them letting them treat me). A mask on an infected person reduces their transmission rate far more than a mask on a healthy person protects them, but they both help. Because no one measure is 100% effective, you eliminate these infectious diseases by a package of measures that aggregate to a very low transmission rate.
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I suspect that a large number of people are still attending large gatherings like churches in the US. Ofcourse the total lack of leadership in the US doesn't help either to make people understand what they should or shouldn't do.
I live and work within a stones throw from the Hillsong mothership church here in Sydney, filled with thousands of hugging touchy feely christian teenagers (most American students BTW) every day, and they all live and work in the local shopping center next door. I was absolutely sure we'd get a hotspot there, but it never happened, not a single case, I was stunned. Still can't explain why.
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You have to realise that a mask only helps against transmitting Covid-19; it doesn't help against receiving it because a mask doesn't cover your eyes. Eyes are (internally) directly connected to the nose. In theory one infected person without a mask can infect several people wearing a mask. For example if they travel together in a bus or visit a crowded place. I suspect that a large number of people are still attending large gatherings like churches in the US. Ofcourse the total lack of leadership in the US doesn't help either to make people understand what they should or shouldn't do.
If a mask doesn't give 100% protection its useless is really dumb thinking.
You are mistaken. Just read up on the how and why of masks and what kind of protection they offer. The key reasons to make masks mandatory is to prevent infected persons to spray the virus around. But since you don't know who is infected or not everyone should wear them. The non-medical / surgical masks are not designed / intended to keep stuff out. Try and use one while drilling in or grinding concrete and check your nose afterwards. You'll see it will do very little for keeping the dust out. Now imagine how well it works to keep a virus out.
I suspect that a large number of people are still attending large gatherings like churches in the US. Ofcourse the total lack of leadership in the US doesn't help either to make people understand what they should or shouldn't do.
I live and work within a stones throw from the Hillsong mothership church here in Sydney, filled with thousands of hugging touchy feely christian teenagers (most American students BTW) every day, and they all live and work in the local shopping center next door. I was absolutely sure we'd get a hotspot there, but it never happened, not a single case, I was stunned. Still can't explain why.
With only a few infections out there the chance is low. But it isn't zero. It only takes one infected person to attend. There are plenty of examples to be found world wide where people wheren't so lucky. In the Netherlands one of the hot-spots is an area with a relatively high number of religious people.
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Many people in America think wrapping any random piece of just about anything across your face counts as a mask. A new fashion industry has sprung up making masks by attaching elastic strips to stylishly printed and colorful cloth. The ability to contain aerosol spray from the mouth or trap incoming matter is not a consideration.
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Many people in America think wrapping any random piece of just about anything across your face counts as a mask. A new fashion industry has sprung up making masks by attaching elastic strips to stylishly printed and colorful cloth. The ability to contain aerosol spray from the mouth or trap incoming matter is not a consideration.
Some of the "fashion masks" have double lining and a pocket to put a filter in...
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One really interesting thing is that the WHO are supposedly now saying that transmission via surfaces is uncommon, as is transmission from asymptomatic people. If so then that should make it pretty easy to contain in places that have already contained it through whatever mechanism.
Although again, there seems to great differences between counties that doesn't seem correlate with that, so it's still puzzling. I don't get the US stats at all, they seem crazy high, and from what I gather everyone over there is wearing masks like crazy.
I think there is likely to be a whole lot more going on with how this whole mechanism works that we don't know about yet, and why countries like Australia have been hardly hit at all. It's not like we have small cities and are ultra-paranoid about it, quite the opposite.
It's fascinating stuff, an analytical statisticians wet dream.
The WHO backed off, or reinterpreted, their statements on the asymptomatic issue https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/)
They have done these re-interpretations several times, most notably with face coverings https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks) I am still steamed about that issue because we were initially told NOT to wear masks beacuse they wouldn't do any good and would make things worse because you would touch your face. The truth was, there were not enough medical masks and the fear was that those needing them the most, would not be able to have them. That situation was NOT unique to the WHO. Also, I expect guidance to be evidence-based and with more evidence, guidance can certainly change.
One problem with the asymptomatic issue is, as usual, a lack of operational definition.
Take an infected individual who will show symptoms. We know that there will be some period of time (an incubation period, if you will) where they have not yet shown symptoms. They *should* be capable of spreading the infection by virtue of their viral load, but they are not sneezing and snorting and coughing, so there spreading ability is different than the symptomatic infector.
Then there are those individuals who stay asymptomatic for the duration of the infection. Same questions can be asked about their ability to infect. I do remember that several cases have been shown to have viral loads equivalent to symptomatic individuals. Then also, one can safely assume that some asymptomatic cases (of all kinds) have, at least at some point, some very mild symptoms.
It does seem like the estimated proportion of asymptomatic individuals that have a significant role in spreading the infection, differs between the USA team and the WHO. The former saying as high as 20% and the latter much lower (by my recollection).
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I thought we were still working under the assumption that everyone will catch it and we just want hospitals available for when people need them? If that's still the modus operandi then I don't see how new cases matter. We can have a million cases a day if they don't overwhelm the hospitals.
Because it's a boogeyman, and people from all walks of life and the media and especially politicians have realised that fear gives them various powers, and people like power and being seen to "do things". And of course it can kill the elderly and other vulnerable people (just like the flu), so if you don't support all draconian measures to stop it then you must like people dying, obviously.
No one was thinking that when millions died of the flu every year, because, reasons...
My state NSW has single digit cases a day (and many zero days recently), yet it's still managed as if it's a crisis that will spiral out of control and infect everyone and kill X percent of those if it's not micro managed. This could go on for years. Open your borders and you are guaranteed a little spike again and the cycle repeats.
Most of the stuff was justified at the start because we knew very little about it, but as time goes on and we learn more, at some point we are just going to have to start treating this as just yet another seasonal flu type thing, otherwise we require that "new normal" society were no one shakes hands or hugs any more etc, and that's depressing. I don't see that happening in practice though, eventually people are just going to say "bugger it" and life will return to relative normality.
But yes, realistically it seems that everyone will eventually catch it whether they know it or not.
Quite some time back I tweeted about those "social distancing" floor stickers in shopping centres etc and pondered what we'll think in 20-30 years time if you find one in an old abandoned shopping mall and you think, "wow, remember back when social distancing was a thing!"
Of course, YMMV. Easy to say in a country that has had little impact from this of course.
I'm not sure about overseas, but here practically zero resources have been spent on protecting the vulnerable. All the effort seems to go into stopping Joe Average getting it. Seems arse backwards to me :-//
Australia has done a very good job of containing the disease, so it's understandable many who live there won't be able to see what all the fuss is about and think it's all been a big overreaction.
This is still a new illness. One of the concerning potential issues is the long term effects and whether this virus can later on bite you on the bum, like polio, which is also a mild illness for most people. There have been reports of lung scaring, damage to the kidneys, heart and brain and very delayed effect on children, who originally had an asymptomatic or very mild illness, only later going on to develop paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome several weeks later.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paediatric_multisystem_inflammatory_syndrome
I understand your concern about governments having too much power, but even the most authoritarian regime isn't going to close off a large proportion of the economy, it costs enormous amounts in lost tax revenues.
I agree with you about protecting the most vulnerable, but older people catch it from the young, so we need to limit community spread to protect them. I'm moderately worried about catching COVID-19. Although I'm in a relatively low risk group, no underlying conditions, fix, active and in the healthy weight range, I worry about spreading it to others and there's still a risk I could die from it. As I mentioned in another post, I know of a 20 year old woman, with no co-morbidities nearly dying of COVID-19 and she still might have long term health problems: it's far too soon to know.
I don't know what we should do. Clearly we can't all lock ourselves away forever, but letting the disease run riot is also not an option either. We need a happy medium between keeping the number of infections down and being able to go about our daily lives.
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I think that localities, including as large as countries, can be meaningfully compared by the measure of positive rate, toward understanding how the infection can be controlled in one place and yet be so out of control in another.
The strategy of identification by testing and quarantine, contact tracing (and testing) is a sound one. Add to that social distancing, sanitary practices, and yes, face coverings, and we (everybody) have the means to control the infection until more effective treatments, including effective vaccines become available. We WILL have effective treatments like plasma-based and monoclonal antibodies and we WILL have vaccines.
Positive rate is simply the number of positive tests as a percentage of total tests administered. Look here, for this measure in each US state https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa
[attachimg=2]
Here is the state of Maryland. New cases rose, positive rates increased to well over 10%, they installed NPI, then testing dramatically increased and stayed increased. positive rate dropped to ~5% and new cases to 300-400. They still have a ways to go, but it is under some level of control and a slow and cautious reopening is in progress.
Here is the state of Florida. Clearly it became untethered and they have an unacceptably high positive rate and daily new case rate.
[attachimg=1]
I have a pretty good idea of what happened - lapsing or otherwise insufficient NPI. Whether I am right or not about that is not the most relevant issue. The critical issue is that they are not doing enough testing.
Wherever it is, if the positive rate is high, not enough testing is being done to allow the strategy of identification (by testing) and quarantine, contact tracing (and testing), social distancing, sanitary practices, and yes, face coverings, to be successful. THAT is what we are seeing in the US. The most powerful country in the world (IMO) and we can't master testing four months into the greatest pandemic the country has seen in 100 years.
I don't give a rat's ass that the US has done more testing than anyone else in the world, it is distinctly irrelevant.
In Wyoming, maybe the infections are under control and their testing is sufficient - and you don't see 10% positive rates. In Australia positive rates are less than 1%. Good for them, I am happy for the folks in all of those areas.
It is not that everybody has to do the same amount of testing, it is that if the positive rate in a locale is too high, you need to do MUCH more testing. Period, beginning, middle and end of issue. I ulcerate hearing all the subterfuge and obfuscation around some very simple and basic concepts.
If you do not do enough testing, you can't control the spread. It is not rocket science. The virus is not alive, it is a hunk of crap that does exactly what it does without fail (except for some mutating).
Yet, in the US we tolerate BS at the highest levels that say we should slow down testing or that testing will produce more cases so we shouldn't be concerned about a rise in cases. Or that it is our constitutional right of assembly, so we are supposed to be fine having political rallys in hot spots.
Pure unadulterated bullshit. Bullshit that smells so bad, you would never accept something like that in the EE world, yet it is met with far too much acceptance. Let's just wait for herd immunity and resign ourselves to the idea that everybody will get infected....while the economy and healthcare get flushed down the toilet...and it really doesn't have to be that way.
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You have to realise that a mask only helps against transmitting Covid-19; it doesn't help against receiving it because a mask doesn't cover your eyes. Eyes are (internally) directly connected to the nose. In theory one infected person without a mask can infect several people wearing a mask. For example if they travel together in a bus or visit a crowded place. I suspect that a large number of people are still attending large gatherings like churches in the US. Ofcourse the total lack of leadership in the US doesn't help either to make people understand what they should or shouldn't do.
If a mask doesn't give 100% protection its useless is really dumb thinking.
You are mistaken. Just read up on the how and why of masks and what kind of protection they offer. The key reasons to make masks mandatory is to prevent infected persons to spray the virus around. But since you don't know who is infected or not everyone should wear them. The non-medical / surgical masks are not designed / intended to keep stuff out. Try and use one while drilling in or grinding concrete and check your nose afterwards. You'll see it will do very little for keeping the dust out. Now imagine how well it works to keep a virus out.
Virus laden aerosol isn't dry dust. Estimates vary, not least because mask quality varies. Much of the garbage out there is governments trying to make masks look useless because they have a shortage of them. If you look for studies quoting real data a typical properly manufactured and worn mask seems to reduce the risk of causing infection to about 3% to 5% of the risk without a mask. The same mask reduces the risk of getting an infection to about 50% to 70% of the risk without a mask. So, the mask is not super effective for the person trying not to get infected, but combine that modest reduction with a spacing and other precautions, and the benefits really add up. Where things get more problematic is people thinking any of piece of cloth vaguely covering their mouth constitutes a meaningful medical mask.
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50% to 70% is still worse than a 1 in 4 chance. Besides that I wonder if those studies only looked at the mask and not the combination where the eyes are left unprotected. And then there is the matter of wearing it correctly. It seems you are ending up with the exact same conclusion as I wrote a few posts earlier.
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"Some". I don't doubt that is true. However, the ones I've seen for sale at the checkout counter in gas stations/convenience stores for $1.99 are just a single layer of cloth. I have actually seen people wearing folded bandanas, western movie desperado style, instead of a real mask. Better than nothing I suppose.
Many people in America think wrapping any random piece of just about anything across your face counts as a mask. A new fashion industry has sprung up making masks by attaching elastic strips to stylishly printed and colorful cloth. The ability to contain aerosol spray from the mouth or trap incoming matter is not a consideration.
Some of the "fashion masks" have double lining and a pocket to put a filter in...
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I think that localities, including as large as countries, can be meaningfully compared by the measure of positive rate, toward understanding how the infection can be controlled in one place and yet be so out of control in another.
The strategy of identification by testing and quarantine, contact tracing (and testing) is a sound one. Add to that social distancing, sanitary practices, and yes, face coverings, and we (everybody) have the means to control the infection until more effective treatments, including effective vaccines become available. We WILL have effective treatments like plasma-based and monoclonal antibodies and we WILL have vaccines.
Yes, testing, contact tracing and quarantine are effective, as well as social distancing but I'm cynical about how well people will cooperate, especially in areas where people don't trust the authorities. Most people in the UK have complied with the social distancing so far, but recently it's started to deteriorate, with the disgraceful no lives matter chaos and this week people crowding the beeches on the first 90°F day of the summer. Even if people do comply with contact tracing, large crowds can quickly lead to greater infection rates, than any contact tracing system can cope with. Hopefully the increase in infections will be mitigated somewhat by the fact that most gatherings have been outdoors, which carries a low risk. The test will be during the run up to Christmas, when everyone will want to party indoors, when it'll be pouring with rain.
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I live in LA county(California) in the San Fernando valley and everything is still basically closed. I go out to Riverside, San Diego, SLO... Only thing you notice is some people wearing masks. By and large it's all back to normal. It's like going to another country when I leave the county.
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Around here pretty much no-one wears a mask now. Even the little lady in the supermarket who would have a fit if you had line of sight of her without at least one layer of perspex in the way seemingly doesn't care now.
The exception is the health service. I happened to warrant a sound'n'lights trip to the local A&E the other night and the paramedics were very conscientious about maintaining both distance and masks. I got given a disposable en route and, frankly, my Amazon washable seemed to be better (didn't have a chance to grab it though).
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Given that everyone capable has been able to go back to work for like a month now here in Sydney. I note that in three commercial building carparks I frequent in my business park, the number of cars is still about half of what it was pre-covid.
And I note an uptick in offices for lease and know of several companies downsizing (plus myself). Although we won't see the real numbers on vacant commercial offices for at least 6-12 months as more leases come up for renewal. I suspect there are many companies that wish they could get out of their long term leases as they realise the world didn't end when people worked from home and are happy to continue doing so.
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A major newspaper here has reported that the government expects that people who can work from home will be requested to do so until at least the end of the year.
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I think that localities, including as large as countries, can be meaningfully compared by the measure of positive rate, toward understanding how the infection can be controlled in one place and yet be so out of control in another.
The strategy of identification by testing and quarantine, contact tracing (and testing) is a sound one. Add to that social distancing, sanitary practices, and yes, face coverings, and we (everybody) have the means to control the infection until more effective treatments, including effective vaccines become available. We WILL have effective treatments like plasma-based and monoclonal antibodies and we WILL have vaccines.
Yes, testing, contact tracing and quarantine are effective, as well as social distancing but I'm cynical about how well people will cooperate, especially in areas where people don't trust the authorities. Most people in the UK have complied with the social distancing so far, but recently it's started to deteriorate, with the disgraceful no lives matter chaos and this week people crowding the beeches on the first 90°F day of the summer. Even if people do comply with contact tracing, large crowds can quickly lead to greater infection rates, than any contact tracing system can cope with. Hopefully the increase in infections will be mitigated somewhat by the fact that most gatherings have been outdoors, which carries a low risk. The test will be during the run up to Christmas, when everyone will want to party indoors, when it'll be pouring with rain.
Yes, re: cynicism. The usual response to that is to point to the leadership, or lack of leadership. In the US, the messaging is so incredibly divisive that to wear a mask, means that you are a Democrat and refusing to wear a mask, means that you are a Trump Republican. I know that is simplistic, but mask wearing has become just that in the US. The same divisiveness holds true for re-opening - how soon and how much. Rather than using evidence-based decisions, it was too often made along political lines, at least to a some extent.
A tipping point may result from the new hot spots. That is, the US is now entering a new stage of "cooperation", as you put it. where many states have had to pause their reopening schedules and some have rolled back restrictions to some degree, e.g., the Texas Governor admitting that maybe he opened up the bars too soon...and in other news, water is wet.
I should also clarify my earlier post a bit. I do think that we (all of us) have only the strategy of identification by testing and quarantine, contact tracing (and testing), social distancing, sanitary practices, and yes, face coverings, to successfully control the virus. That will change at some point, but for now if any of those pieces are failing, the whole circuit will suffer. I view testing as the CPU of the circuit. If the testing component fails, the circuit will fail.
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Any reasonable person, viewing the latest US data, would come to the realization that we are losing the battle. The number of cases is continuing to grow without bound (Florida had 5000 new cases yesterday) and in my backward county we are similarly out of control at a smaller scale.
We closed the country in early March when the new cases per day (nationwide) was around 2000. Now that the new cases per day is around 40,000, people are whining about wearing a mask and the government is scrambling to open things back up. People are stupid! Not just ignorant, that could be cured but factually stupid for which there is no cure.
Anybody notice the spike in cases within 2 weeks of Memorial Day? Nobody will attribute the newest outbreaks to the protests but it is happening anyway.
i don't know if masks are effective and we sure got mixed messages early on re: whether to wear masks but at this point I think the health care people are unanimous: Wear a mask!
If you look at the US data, you can see where daily cases start to pick up on June 12th, just about 2 weeks after Memorial Day.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)
In some ways, it is Karma. That bunch of kids that simply had to spend their spring break in Mexico brought back 64 cases of Covid-19. I wonder if it was worth it...
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6926e1.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6926e1.htm)
Maybe Covid-19 is Mother Nature's way of adding Chlorine to the gene pool. In the meantime, I'll continue to wear a mask when I'm out and about. It may not protect me but it might prevent me from infecting someone else. If everybody worked the same way, masks would suddenly become effective. Everybody protecting each other!
Not going to happen! We have to remember: We are all in this separately!
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Yes it's not looking good, and it's frustrating how poorly we have done as a nation. It didn't take long for it to become extremely politicized and partisan which makes no sense at all to me, a virus doesn't care about anyone's political views. The complete lack of coordination between states and lack of coherent leadership is appalling. The utter failure of the USA to deal with a pandemic that is far less deadly than a virus could be is disappointing, in fact it's massively embarrassing. It's the sort of thing I'd expect to see in some 3rd world dump run by an inept and self serving dictator. The protests strike me as absolutely stupid when there's a virus spreading around killing thousands of people, especially when that virus is hitting those the protests claim to advocate for the hardest. Then the political rallies are equally stupid and arguably far less necessary. I don't really understand the point of those at all, we've already narrowed down the field to the two final contenders, anyone who is going to go to a Trump rally during a pandemic is obviously already going to vote for him anyway so what's the point of a rally? Is he hoping to kill off as many of his fans as possible?
At this point my view is that we failed, the war is lost. All there is to do now is look out for ourselves as best we can and watch the body count climb.
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That seems to have been the worst thing about the pandemic in the USA.
Responses to the crisis have varied considerably across states, with certain states not locking down anywhere nearly as seriously as others, and the President refuses to wear a mask in public which would set a good tone for the rest of the country.
I have no idea why it has become so politicised but I suspect by the time it has torn through the country it will be easily 500k deaths, ICUs will be overloaded and there will be nearly a million other "related" deaths as the consequences of lockdown, family/business breakdown due to loss of key members/staff, and economic stress take their toll.
I also don't see transatlantic flights resuming any time soon if the USA does not control the epidemic.
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IMHO if the US managed to suppress Covid-19 like many of the other western and rich Asian countries did they would also have bought time to get people vaccinated. My gut feeling is that 50% to 75% of the fatalities that have occured and the many more that are likely to follow in the next months could have been avoided. Hindsight will tell but it is so sad to whitness.
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Only in the US would I be required to wear a mask to the grocery store but not to a protest or political rally. It truly is insane!
Back to the topic: My wife has been working from home for the last couple of months. The company is trying to get their people back in the office and, right out of the gate, somebody tested positive. It has yet to be determined how many others were affected and 'contact tracing' is a joke because the American With Disabilities Act prevents disclosing WHO is infected so you can't really report whether you interacted with them of not!! There has been some resistance to coming back to the office (incubator).
If a positive case is identified in the workplace, the employer is encouraged to investigate the exposure of others in the workplace without disclosing the name of the individual or any personally identifiable information about the person.
So, when you ask employees about their contacts, you are relying on their memory of an unremarkable encounter. If you could ask "Were you in contact with Joe?" it might pull up an entirely different memory of contacts. But that question can't be asked.
See 3rd bullet under Confidentiality under the ADA
https://www.natlawreview.com/article/covid-19-what-employers-need-to-know-about-hipaa (https://www.natlawreview.com/article/covid-19-what-employers-need-to-know-about-hipaa)
Yup! We're insane!
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IMHO if the US managed to suppress Covid-19 like many of the other western and rich Asian countries did they would also have bought time to get people vaccinated. My gut feeling is that 50% to 75% of the fatalities that have occured and the many more that are likely to follow in the next months could have been avoided. Hindsight will tell but it is so sad to whitness.
Sorry, that's overly optimistic. Antibody tests show the percentage of the population infected in areas with relatively high levels of infection, such as the UK, is under 10%. The UK's Office for National Statics study estimates just under 6.8% of the population had been exposed to COVID-19 at the end of May. It'll be a little higher now, but not much, due to social distancing, so let's say 7%. This means we're only at 10% of the 70% required for herd immunity, so we can expect a huge increase in deaths, before we get a vaccine or a decent therapeutic. Hopefully dexamethasone will mean ten times the current number of deaths won't happen, even if we don't get a vaccine or any new therapeutics.
As of 24 May 2020, 6.78% (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%) of individuals from whom blood samples were taken tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus (COVID-19). This is based on blood test results from 885 individuals since the start of the study on 26 April 2020.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020)
EDIT: Just reread your post and if our governments handle this properly, then I suspect your gut feeling is right: we're at around 50% to 75% of the total fatality rate for COVID-19. This might be true in Europe and perhaps the richer Asian countries, but I doubt it's the case worldwide, as most countries are much poorer. Hopefully the US government will sort it out soon.
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... I suspect by the time it has torn through the country it will be easily 500k deaths, ...
I don't think so. Obviously, we both hope that you are wrong, but I think that the calculated case fatality rate (that is, number of fatalities as a proportion of confirmed cases) has been steadily declining and will continue to do so. I have thought about it a lot and I think that there are three main reasons for that drop...
First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities - an incredibly sobering statistic. There are plenty of vulnerable elderly who are not in those kinds of facilities but it is clear to me that those very vulnerable folks (and some workers) were just incredibly hard hit.
Second is an improvement in the SOP practiced by medical personnel. This has been aided by a couple of drugs with at least some efficacy - we are learning to treat cases a bit better.
Third is that I think we are seeing a change in the distribution of documented cases toward the lower end of the age groups and they are less vulnerable. Of course, as we all know, they can and do infect others.
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....
At this point my view is that we failed, the war is lost. All there is to do now is look out for ourselves as best we can and watch the body count climb....
I try to remain optimistic and, like many folks, I have my good days and bad days with that. I am optimistic because of some solid successes in the some areas of the US and because I believe that we will have some good treatments coming and vaccines following shortly thereafter. This, despite some of the spectacular failures we are seeing.
... Then the political rallies are equally stupid and arguably far less necessary. I don't really understand the point of those at all...
Hopefully, it is the farewell tour. [sorry, I just couldn't resist]
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... I suspect by the time it has torn through the country it will be easily 500k deaths, ...
I don't think so. Obviously, we both hope that you are wrong, but I think that the calculated case fatality rate (that is, number of fatalities as a proportion of confirmed cases) has been steadily declining and will continue to do so. I have thought about it a lot and I think that there are three main reasons for that drop...
First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities - an incredibly sobering statistic. There are plenty of vulnerable elderly who are not in those kinds of facilities but it is clear to me that those very vulnerable folks (and some workers) were just incredibly hard hit.
Second is an improvement in the SOP practiced by medical personnel. This has been aided by a couple of drugs with at least some efficacy - we are learning to treat cases a bit better.
Third is that I think we are seeing a change in the distribution of documented cases toward the lower end of the age groups and they are less vulnerable. Of course, as we all know, they can and do infect others.
I hope you're right, but I think 500k deaths is a reasonable estimate. The R is above one in many areas, so it's growing exponentially again. People seem to be complying less with the social distancing. As someone who has never stepped foot in the country, I'm only going by news coverages, so I could be wrong and hope I am. I'm also worried that hospitals will become overwhelmed and have heard that's already the case in some areas. Without treatment, the IFR will be several times higher than it is.
Hopefully the authorities will get a handle on enforcing social distancing and contact tracing, until a vaccine or better therapeutic comes along. If this never happens, then 500k deaths is on the optimistic end of the spectrum.
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... I suspect by the time it has torn through the country it will be easily 500k deaths, ...
I don't think so. Obviously, we both hope that you are wrong, but I think that the calculated case fatality rate (that is, number of fatalities as a proportion of confirmed cases) has been steadily declining and will continue to do so. I have thought about it a lot and I think that there are three main reasons for that drop...
First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities - an incredibly sobering statistic. There are plenty of vulnerable elderly who are not in those kinds of facilities but it is clear to me that those very vulnerable folks (and some workers) were just incredibly hard hit.
Second is an improvement in the SOP practiced by medical personnel. This has been aided by a couple of drugs with at least some efficacy - we are learning to treat cases a bit better.
Third is that I think we are seeing a change in the distribution of documented cases toward the lower end of the age groups and they are less vulnerable. Of course, as we all know, they can and do infect others.
I hope you're right, but I think 500k deaths is a reasonable estimate. The R is above one in many areas, so it's growing exponentially again. People seem to be complying less with the social distancing. As someone who has never stepped foot in the country, I'm only going by news coverages, so I could be wrong and hope I am. I'm also worried that hospitals will become overwhelmed and have heard that's already the case in some areas. Without treatment, the IFR will be several times higher than it is.
Hopefully the authorities will get a handle on enforcing social distancing and contact tracing, until a vaccine or better therapeutic comes along. If this never happens, then 500k deaths is on the optimistic end of the spectrum.
Even the dumbest, thickest people will "get the message" once family members start to die off - It was easy enough to be brave and "free" while the disease hadn't reached their neck of the woods yet.
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Only in the US would I be required to wear a mask to the grocery store but not to a protest or political rally. It truly is insane!
Honestly I think it's just being pragmatic. I mean if you've got a massive lawless angry mob that is behaving entirely emotionally, torching buildings and police cars and physically assaulting cops are you going to try to demand they wear masks? Likewise the political rallies, if the president is refusing to wear a mask and not requiring attendees to wear them who is going to make that requirement? It's pretty clear to me that control of the situation was entirely lost and the powers that be simply gave up. Like everything else, masks became political with the decision to wear or not wear one becoming another form of virtue signalling. Ordinary law abiding people going to the grocery store are a lot more likely to behave rationally and comply with mask requirements than angry mobs that are already out of control.
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Even the dumbest, thickest people will "get the message" once family members start to die off - It was easy enough to be brave and "free" while the disease hadn't reached their neck of the woods yet.
If you look at it mathematically I don't think there are going to be enough of them for everyone to get the message. Looking at just the USA, we have 330 million people. If the death count hits 500k, that's 1 out of every 660 people in the country dying. Even that big number of deaths is small enough that a majority of us will probably not have someone we personally know well die from it. 500k is a lot of people, but we'd probably need 10 times that many dead before the effects are immediately visible to the majority of the population.
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First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities
As sad as that is, if you are talking correct numbers then you should probably subtract the numbers of elderly that would have died from flu like viruses annually anyway. In effect just lumping covid in as another one of the infectious respiratory illnesses which is what it technically is. In my mum's small retirement village alone there are half a dozen deaths a year due to the flu, they "drop like flies every flu season" to use my mum's words.
Yes, I've been saying from the start that this whole thing is arse-backwards in terms of who's being protected. There should be police and a testing station and a system in place at the entry to every retirement village.
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Wait we SHOULDN'T put covid patients into retirement facilities? Geez... We did mess this up.
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It's the staff that quickly spread it around- they work shifts at multiple care facilities.
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First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities
As sad as that is, if you are talking correct numbers then you should probably subtract the numbers of elderly that would have died from flu like viruses annually anyway.
And add the numbers they left out (if any). People doing those studies aren't stupid. World wide you can see spikes in death rates which are far higher compared to the regular death rates.
For example; this is the graph with death rates in the NL from the Dutch government statistics bureau:
[attachimg=1 width=800]
For clarity they plotted the expected death rate in their as well. And if you add the excess deaths up then you'll see that you reach a much higher number than the official number of Covid-19 deaths!
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First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities
As sad as that is, if you are talking correct numbers then you should probably subtract the numbers of elderly that would have died from flu like viruses annually anyway. In effect just lumping covid in as another one of the infectious respiratory illnesses which is what it technically is. In my mum's small retirement village alone there are half a dozen deaths a year due to the flu, they "drop like flies every flu season" to use my mum's words.
Yes, I've been saying from the start that this whole thing is arse-backwards in terms of who's being protected. There should be police and a testing station and a system in place at the entry to every retirement village.
The way the information has been presented is somewhat unclear, but what I have seen suggests UK nursing home death rates this spring have been about 1/3 higher than last year, which was considered a fairly typical year. People look at the high death rate attributed to COVID-19 and think its awful. They miss just how many people are elderly and in care homes in western countries. There is a strong continuous flow of people coming into those homes, when its finally clear they can no longer cope on their own, and heading out to the mortuary.
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It's the staff that quickly spread it around- they work shifts at multiple care facilities.
That's why I said they should have put effort into putting protection systems in place for the vulnerable. Just in Australia this thing was costing us around $4BN a week, that buys you a lot of protection measures.
At the very least I would have liked to have seen a cop stationed at the entry to every retirement village restricting access, but it never happened, at least not here.
One plus side of all of this is that people are more vigilant now, so that should help reduce spread of covid and all the other viruses. I would expect a reduction of flu related deaths this season because of this (we are in flu season here now).
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First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities
As sad as that is, if you are talking correct numbers then you should probably subtract the numbers of elderly that would have died from flu like viruses annually anyway. In effect just lumping covid in as another one of the infectious respiratory illnesses which is what it technically is. In my mum's small retirement village alone there are half a dozen deaths a year due to the flu, they "drop like flies every flu season" to use my mum's words.
Yes, I've been saying from the start that this whole thing is arse-backwards in terms of who's being protected. There should be police and a testing station and a system in place at the entry to every retirement village.
You will get no argument from me on how backwards this has been. The worst of what happened I think was at the medicaid-type facilities. Folks who have no money left for much of anything. That might also mean the most lower-skilled labor and the less sufficient amount of labor. Maybe I am being to pessimistic, but I think that they had only later Government involvement and the numbers were already staggering.
In one state, the Governor went out and bought 500K testing kits from, and get this, South Korea. After a while people wanted to know where all the deployment was and he told them - to cover the State's nursing homes.
As just a technical matter, they track documented corona deaths. There has been a lot of discussion about that and we (in the US) started added 'probable' deaths, but they make up a much smaller percentage. So, yeah, many of these folks were very vulnerable to a lot of things like all of the usual flu strains, but this is what was documented for that bin.
Nobody with much SME thinks that those documented case numbers are inflated - that is, most everyone thinks it is a low estimate.
But they got a handle on it eventually. People are basically not allowed to visit and some cases where the family looks through the window and with a phone is how they are spending their last days and it is heart wrenching.
Here is today's graph of corona deaths in the US showing what I was saying before regarding the decrease.
[attachimg=1]
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This means we're only at 10% of the 70% required for herd immunity, so we can expect a huge increase in deaths, before we get a vaccine or a decent therapeutic.
Whilst we'll get a large number, the rate will tail off as the herd becomes immune, won't it? So overall the number would be large but it would be spread out, and be a decreasing rate.
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Whilst we'll get a large number, the rate will tail off as the herd becomes immune, won't it? So overall the number would be large but it would be spread out, and be a decreasing rate.
I hope so, but I don't think anybody really knows for sure yet.
In hindsight the lockdown was probably futile as we didn't do it in a coordinated and complete enough fashion to really help in the long run. The constitution makes it virtually impossible to ban all travel between states, counties or other arbitrary boundaries and the leadership at the top was clearly not interested in orchestrating anything. A less drastic lockdown combined with much more aggressive measures such as masks, sanitation, distancing where possible and other changes likely could have provided similar benefits without quite as drastic of an economic impact and perhaps more importantly the mental health impact. I strongly suspect that the combination of general anger/frustration/stress, uncertainty and large scale unemployment is a very significant contributor to the riots and unrest. People who are employed and busy don't have time to camp downtown for weeks at a time and are much less inclined to burn down the businesses that employ them.
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This means we're only at 10% of the 70% required for herd immunity, so we can expect a huge increase in deaths, before we get a vaccine or a decent therapeutic.
Whilst we'll get a large number, the rate will tail off as the herd becomes immune, won't it? So overall the number would be large but it would be spread out, and be a decreasing rate.
The death rate will be dramatic once the health system becomes overwhelmed and doesn't have the capacity to save many of those that could have been saved. Which will happen long before we get to 70% in many places if things aren't slowed down. Never mind the fact that many of those coming out of hospital alive will have permanent organ damage from either the disease or the treatment. The desirable route to herd immunity remains vaccination, when one is developed that works. But otherwise you're right...the death rate will decrease when the most vulnerable people are dead.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808 (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808)
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Whilst we'll get a large number, the rate will tail off as the herd becomes immune, won't it? So overall the number would be large but it would be spread out, and be a decreasing rate.
I hope so, but I don't think anybody really knows for sure yet.
In hindsight the lockdown was probably futile as we didn't do it in a coordinated and complete enough fashion to really help in the long run. The constitution makes it virtually impossible to ban all travel between states, counties or other arbitrary boundaries and the leadership at the top was clearly not interested in orchestrating anything. A less drastic lockdown combined with much more aggressive measures such as masks, sanitation, distancing where possible and other changes likely could have provided similar benefits without quite as drastic of an economic impact and perhaps more importantly the mental health impact. I strongly suspect that the combination of general anger/frustration/stress, uncertainty and large scale unemployment is a very significant contributor to the riots and unrest. People who are employed and busy don't have time to camp downtown for weeks at a time and are much less inclined to burn down the businesses that employ them.
The lockdown has worked well in some states - e.g. CT has gone from one of the worst, to one of the best.
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First is that we have a much better grip on how to lock down nursing homes/LTC facilities. Around the time that the US hit 100K a study showed that 40K deaths were associated with those facilities
As sad as that is, if you are talking correct numbers then you should probably subtract the numbers of elderly that would have died from flu like viruses annually anyway.
And add the numbers they left out (if any). People doing those studies aren't stupid. World wide you can see spikes in death rates which are far higher compared to the regular death rates.
The excess deaths figure may be rather more subtle than first appears. Sure, the numbers directly attributable to covid19 (that is, those who died because they caught it) bump the graph up, but there could be significant numbers indirectly attributable. Dave points out those that would have died anyway, but not mentioned much are those that essentially died through being scared of covid19.
One factor in health services not being overwhelmed as they were predicted to be may have been that people were just unwilling to risk going to hospital. There was a significant dip in A&E attendance figures, and it's known that some people delayed seeking treatment until their issue was much further along that would otherwise have been the case. Had there not been a pandemic scare, many would have survived simply because they sought treatment sooner.
Additionallly, there was a big fuss about cancer patients not receiving their normal treatment. That wouldn't've done their prospects much good at all, and probably some of them are yet to die early because of covid19 albeit not because they caught it.
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The lockdown has worked well in some states - e.g. CT has gone from one of the worst, to one of the best.
As it has also here in Washington. Unfortunately it only takes one person from some more infected area to set off another outbreak here and put us right back where we started. The lockdown indeed worked but with it not being coordinated between states and with nothing to prevent people from freely moving across state lines it's a bit like trying to keep all the pee in one part of the swimming pool.
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One really interesting thing is that the WHO are supposedly now saying that transmission via surfaces is uncommon, as is transmission from asymptomatic people.
This was a bit of a f*** up on many counts.
The first report I seen from WHO said, "Less likely than previously thought", but this got reworded by every news agency and quickly became "very unlikely" a significantly different quantifier.
When pressed WHO admitted they had no data on asymptomatic transmission.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/)
Currently their website says:
Can COVID-19 be caught from a person who has no symptoms?
COVID-19 is mainly spread through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing or has other symptoms such as fever or tiredness. Many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true in the early stages of the disease. It is possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has just a mild cough and does not feel ill.
Some reports have indicated that people with no symptoms can transmit the virus. It is not yet known how often it happens. WHO is assessing ongoing research on the topic and will continue to share updated findings.
Source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses) 29/06/2020
I think we are seeing a wide spread of cases and death rates across different locations. My own local has currently emptied ICU wards of CovId patients and had several days with no new cases. However, the airports are open and England is seeing spots of increase again in some places and yet flights operate back and forward for business travellers every day.
My point is... if your county/locale has only a handful of cases, coming in contact with these is rare, so spread is very slow. However it may not take long for that to change. This is not over by far. It would be a shame to ruin it all and see cases rising rapidly in places that have beaten them down so well.
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Even the dumbest, thickest people will "get the message" once family members start to die off - It was easy enough to be brave and "free" while the disease hadn't reached their neck of the woods yet.
If you look at it mathematically I don't think there are going to be enough of them for everyone to get the message. Looking at just the USA, we have 330 million people. If the death count hits 500k, that's 1 out of every 660 people in the country dying. Even that big number of deaths is small enough that a majority of us will probably not have someone we personally know well die from it. 500k is a lot of people, but we'd probably need 10 times that many dead before the effects are immediately visible to the majority of the population.
Fortuntely people don't have to die for others to get the message, just very ill will do. In the UK, 43k have died from COVID-19, which is a tiny fraction of the 68 million population. The official number of cases is 311k, which again is still small, compared to the population, but this is due to lack of testing during the peak, so the actual number will be around ten times that or I hope so, because the case fatality rate would be very high. This mean most people know of at least one person who's had it, with a good number of them being sick enough to worry. Unfortunately, once the number of infections reaches this level, getting them down to managable levels requires taking drastic measures.
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The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread. What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available.
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The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread. What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available.
So, you expect some amount of lockdown to continue for years, and perhaps indefinitely? All the "vaccine is just around the corner" claims ignore that vaccines have always taken years to reach the market, and effective vaccines for rapidly changing virii have generally defeated the vaccine industry. Any plan based on a vaccine appearing is not really a plan at all. Its wishful thinking. A real plan has to work without a vaccine, with the appearance of a vaccine being a nice bonus that makes life easier.
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The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread. What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available.
So, you expect some amount of lockdown to continue for years, and perhaps indefinitely? All the "vaccine is just around the corner" claims ignore that vaccines have always taken years to reach the market, and effective vaccines for rapidly changing virii have generally defeated the vaccine industry. Any plan based on a vaccine appearing is not really a plan at all. Its wishful thinking. A real plan has to work without a vaccine, with the appearance of a vaccine being a nice bonus that makes life easier.
Well no, not quite, once the numeber of cases has fallen to low enough levels, the lockdown can be largely replaced with, contact tracing, testing and isolation of infected people. Unfortunately, I think we'll need some social distancing measures to be in place for quite some time. In the UK, so far we've managed to get most shops open and people back to work, without a resurgence in cases. The next step will whether we can reopen hairdressers and pubs, without the R going above 1, which I think is possible, as long as the proposed measures are implemented, which involve keeping groups of people apart and no lound music, so people don't have to shout. I'm cynical about nightclubs reopening and large parties taking place, without a second wave.
My worry is the second wave will occur during the run up to Chrismas. If we want to avoid a second wave, this Chrismas should be different. People should only visit their immediate family. There should be no massive parties, with people getting drink and dancing with one another. Companies should organise separate parties for individual teams and not permit them to bring guests. We can enjoy ourselves without all of that bollocks.
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We can enjoy ourselves without all of that bollocks.
Yes grandpa.
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The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread. What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available.
So, you expect some amount of lockdown to continue for years, and perhaps indefinitely? All the "vaccine is just around the corner" claims ignore that vaccines have always taken years to reach the market, and effective vaccines for rapidly changing virii have generally defeated the vaccine industry. Any plan based on a vaccine appearing is not really a plan at all. Its wishful thinking. A real plan has to work without a vaccine, with the appearance of a vaccine being a nice bonus that makes life easier.
What is the alternative? These countries (UK and US) have screwed up and failed to contain the virus. It is wild in the community. If we say ~70,000 deaths due to CV19 (40k reported, 30k other) in the UK, but only 7% of the general population has had the virus, then to let it rip through the rest of the UK would mean we expect around 1 million deaths in the UK alone. That is worse than Spanish Flu. (228,000 dead in UK estimated.)
If we were New Zealand or S.Korea we could look at opening borders with the requirement for virus testing upon entry (at traveller's expense). Tests already exist that can give a positive result within 10 minutes, so it is believably practical to do that at the airport and allow tourists back into the country cautiously.
But we can't do that. And neither can be sustain (economically and socially) total lockdown endlessly. But some form of lockdown is going to be needed for the next year at least, and possibly longer. As you say, vaccines are not an overnight affair. It's going to hurt. Some hospitality businesses may never recover.
This government is already talking about opening up air corridors - I just cannot see that going well. One infected person on an aircraft with recirculated air is suddenly 200 infected visitors.
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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-hospitals-hit-100-base-ICU-capacity-15372256.php (https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-hospitals-hit-100-base-ICU-capacity-15372256.php)
Texas Medical Center hospitals stopped updating key metrics showing the stress rising numbers of COVID-19 patients were placing on their facilities for more than three days, rattling policymakers and residents who have relied on the information to gauge the spread of the coronavirus.
The institutions — which together constitute the world’s largest medical complex — reported Thursday that their base intensive care capacity had hit 100 percent for the first time during the pandemic and was on pace to exceed an “unsustainable surge capacity” of intensive care beds by July 6.
Texas's biggest problem is in Houston (population about 2.4 million), which is going to be worth watching as they fall into the rabbit hole.
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Tests already exist that can give a positive result within 10 minutes, so it is believably practical to do that at the airport and allow tourists back into the country cautiously.
I think the downside with those 10 minute tests is they are single test machines. So to test a single 747 with 350 passengers... unless you have dozens of machines, it might take some time.
Expanding those numbers out hypothetically. If you had 100 machines, it would take roughly 35-40 minutes to test a flight. More like an hour. Large airports land 747s every 5 minutes.
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I believe we need to move to localising restrictions. Each borough or area has it's own status level. From LOW with 1m distancing, pubs and clubs open to HIGH, total lockdown.
These can be broadcast on local radio stations during the news. Reports like:
"West Cumbria has issued a Covid-19 warning and status of MEDIUM today after a surge of 112 cases in the last 2 days. People are advised not to travel to or from West Cumbria and full 2m social distancing is in effect. Hospitality is closed. " etc. etc.
We can also stop saying "The UK has lost control". It's quite clear it is only England (and possibly Wales) who have lost control. Scotland, Northern Ireland and most of the isles have it under control, currently.
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Large airports land 747s every 5 minutes.
That's all in the past, at least in passenger service. Most of the 747's still flying today only carry cargo, not passengers. The rest are mostly parked, and many will never see passenger service again. Most of the much newer and more efficient wide-body jets (like B777 or A380) are also parked. Expect narrow-body jets to carry passenger load between most points. It will take years, no joke, for the demand to return to previous levels.
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It's sort of depressing. With so much confusion going on in the Western world right now, particularly in the states and with the US and UK easing lock downs etc. It is easy to become complacent and think this is over.
I haven't been looking at any of the data for a few weeks, but checking John Hopkins data this morning it looks like it's increasing again in daily cases. It could even go properly exponential again. The world daily new cases is accelerating as is the US and probably the UK/England.
On vaccines. I have two competing thoughts.
Coronaviruses are not new, most of the ones we know of cause a mild cold. Nobody has managed to cure or vacinate against the common cold yet. What are their chances of doing so now?
The competing thoughts are that there is less incentive to cure the common cold that a coronavirus that kills 1%+ of people. So maybe with enough funding they will find one.
The other two SARS/MERS outbreaks didn't produce a vaccine that I'm aware of, once they outbreaks went away funding was probably pulled.
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It will take years, no joke, for the demand to return to previous levels.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics)
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It will take years, no joke, for the demand to return to previous levels.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics)
Which is counting all kinds of flights, not number of passengers being transported or what size planes are being used when they are. I was referring to passenger demand.
Try:
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) for daily figures on passengers passing through security in the USA. Yesterdays number was 633,810. A year ago on the same day it was 2,632,030.
Or:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/)
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Try:
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) for daily figures on passengers passing through security in the USA.
Who in their right mind would want to go there? Have you not seen the news?
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It's sort of depressing. With so much confusion going on in the Western world right now, particularly in the states and with the US and UK easing lock downs etc. It is easy to become complacent and think this is over.
I haven't been looking at any of the data for a few weeks, but checking John Hopkins data this morning it looks like it's increasing again in daily cases. It could even go properly exponential again. The world daily new cases is accelerating as is the US and probably the UK/England.
On vaccines. I have two competing thoughts.
Coronaviruses are not new, most of the ones we know of cause a mild cold. Nobody has managed to cure or vacinate against the common cold yet. What are their chances of doing so now?
The competing thoughts are that there is less incentive to cure the common cold that a coronavirus that kills 1%+ of people. So maybe with enough funding they will find one.
The other two SARS/MERS outbreaks didn't produce a vaccine that I'm aware of, once they outbreaks went away funding was probably pulled.
Take a look at this database / tracker https://covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org/#treatment_antibodies
Today's counts: 257 treatments, 172 vaccines
We will get there.
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The lockdown will be still successful even if inter-state travel is allowed, because people working from home and avoiding contact will reduce the spread. What you can't do is go back to normal until there's a vaccination or antiviral available.
So, you expect some amount of lockdown to continue for years, and perhaps indefinitely? All the "vaccine is just around the corner" claims ignore that vaccines have always taken years to reach the market, and effective vaccines for rapidly changing virii have generally defeated the vaccine industry. Any plan based on a vaccine appearing is not really a plan at all. Its wishful thinking. A real plan has to work without a vaccine, with the appearance of a vaccine being a nice bonus that makes life easier.
What is the alternative? These countries (UK and US) have screwed up and failed to contain the virus. It is wild in the community. If we say ~70,000 deaths due to CV19 (40k reported, 30k other) in the UK, but only 7% of the general population has had the virus, then to let it rip through the rest of the UK would mean we expect around 1 million deaths in the UK alone. That is worse than Spanish Flu. (228,000 dead in UK estimated.)
1 million deaths in the UK, at the end of the epidemic, would only happen if something goes horribly wrong, such as a massive runaway infection causing the hospitals to choke up. 70k excess deaths so far already sounds pessimistic, it's probably more like 60k, but 65k is what was reported a week ago, so let's assume that's correct for now.
https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/excess-deaths-in-uk-pass-65000-what-the-latest-covid-19-figures-tell-us/ (https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/excess-deaths-in-uk-pass-65000-what-the-latest-covid-19-figures-tell-us/)
If we assume the Office for National Statistics antibody testing report giving an infection rate of 6.8% of the population, then we can say we've roughly had 4.6million cases so far, leading to an average excess death rate of 1.4% per case, weather this be direct or indirect.
As of 24 May 2020, 6.78% (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%) of individuals from whom blood samples were taken tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus (COVID-19). This is based on blood test results from 885 individuals since the start of the study on 26 April 2020.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020)
Fortunately, it's highly unlikely the entire population will become infected, because as more people develop immunity, the R number will gradually fall, until it drops below 1, since even those who haven't being exposed to it will be surrounded by those who are immune and will never get infected. This is why it's so important to prioritise the most vulnerable groups of people: older, male, and of black and minority ethnicity. It's generally accepted 70% of the population will need to have been exposed to gain herd immunity, so assuming that's right, 70% of 68 million is 47.6 million and the excess death rate is 1.4% per case, giving a total of 2/3 million excess deaths.
I think if we're successful in containing the outbreak, the total will be around around double the number of deaths is expected. This new drug will help to reduce the case fatality rate and hospital capacity won't be exceeded, so they're shouldn't be any more deaths due to cancellations or fear of going to hospital and getting COVID-19.
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If you had 100 machines, it would take roughly 35-40 minutes to test a flight. More like an hour.
The UK airports would luuurve that. Not only would they have enforced stays in shopping malls on the outward journey, they get to implement it on the inbound too! Think of the spondulicks.
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It must really suck for people whose jobs involve a lot of confined places and breathing other people's air.
Try:
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) for daily figures on passengers passing through security in the USA.
Who in their right mind would want to go there? Have you not seen the news?
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That reminds me of Dockweiler Beach in LA, which is right underneath the filight path for LAX, one of the busiest airports in the US. I wonder what its like today?
Large airports land 747s every 5 minutes.
That's all in the past, at least in passenger service. Most of the 747's still flying today only carry cargo, not passengers. The rest are mostly parked, and many will never see passenger service again. Most of the much newer and more efficient wide-body jets (like B777 or A380) are also parked. Expect narrow-body jets to carry passenger load between most points. It will take years, no joke, for the demand to return to previous levels.
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Large airports land 747s every 5 minutes.
That's all in the past, at least in passenger service. Most of the 747's still flying today only carry cargo, not passengers. The rest are mostly parked, and many will never see passenger service again. Most of the much newer and more efficient wide-body jets (like B777 or A380) are also parked. Expect narrow-body jets to carry passenger load between most points. It will take years, no joke, for the demand to return to previous levels.
This is being exacerbated by COVID-19, but it was happening anyway. The 747 and A380 have been rapidly dying off in recent years, in favour of the 777, 787 and A350.
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70% of 68 million is 47.6 million and the excess death rate is 1.4% per case, giving a total of 2/3 million excess deaths
JH reports 10m worldwide infections, 500K deaths. On that basis, 47m infected would be worth 2m deaths.
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70% of 68 million is 47.6 million and the excess death rate is 1.4% per case, giving a total of 2/3 million excess deaths
JH reports 10m worldwide infections, 500K deaths. On that basis, 47m infected would be worth 2m deaths.
No, that's a totally unrealistic estimate, because the number of infections worldwide is much higher than that. Antigen testing (this is whether the person has it at the time or not) is heavily biased in favour of those who have symptoms, or have been exposed to those who are ill. We know that most people experience a very mild illness and some people never experience any symptoms. No one will bother to get tested, if they feel fine and haven't come into contact with a sick person. It's true the number of deaths will also be higher, than the number reported, but not by the same ratio, as the infection rate. The numbers I gave are more realistic, because the number of infections is based on a random sample of antibody tests, which test whether or not someone has had the virus in the past and will include asymptomatic cases. If we do the same as you have done for the UK, which has 311,965 cases and 43,575 deaths, then we get a case fatality rate of nearly 14%, which is more than a factor of ten greater than the real number, because the randomly sampled antibody tests show a much greater proportion of the population has been infected than the antigen tests show.
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Due to heart attacks and strokes I worked from home; June 2012 through my retirement on March 31, 2016. I was fortunate to have an employer (the State of Florida) with work-at-home policies in place, and that considered my work to be of sufficient value so as to allow me to do it. I even got a gigabit fiber optic line into my home office, that lives on to this day but just at 250 Mbs...
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Vaccines likely are not the right approach.
Modulating the sirtuin system probably is.
On vaccines. I have two competing thoughts.
Coronaviruses are not new, most of the ones we know of cause a mild cold. Nobody has managed to cure or vacinate against the common cold yet. What are their chances of doing so now?
The competing thoughts are that there is less incentive to cure the common cold that a coronavirus that kills 1%+ of people. So maybe with enough funding they will find one.
The other two SARS/MERS outbreaks didn't produce a vaccine that I'm aware of, once they outbreaks went away funding was probably pulled.
N-Acetylcysteine is also quite useful.
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No, that's a totally unrealistic estimate, because the number of infections worldwide is much higher than that. Antigen testing (this is whether the person has it at the time or not) is heavily biased in favour of those who have symptoms, or have been exposed to those who are ill. We know that most people experience a very mild illness and some people never experience any symptoms. No one will bother to get tested,
Not quite. Over here they test donated blood for Covid-19 anti-bodies. This give a reasonable accurate view on the number of infections. And since blood is donated continuously it is possible to establish a time line on how the infection grew. I'm not sure whether they are registering the areas where the blood was donated though.
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No, that's a totally unrealistic estimate, because the number of infections worldwide is much higher than that. Antigen testing (this is whether the person has it at the time or not) is heavily biased in favour of those who have symptoms, or have been exposed to those who are ill. We know that most people experience a very mild illness and some people never experience any symptoms. No one will bother to get tested,
Not quite. Over here they test donated blood for Covid-19 anti-bodies. This give a reasonable accurate view on the number of infections. And since blood is donated continuously it is possible to establish a time line on how the infection grew. I'm not sure whether they are registering the areas where the blood was donated though.
Blood donation is better than swab tests, but will still be subject to selection bias. Randomly testing people for antibodies eliminates any selection bias, but you have a point that the sample size will be smaller, than blood donation.
Sewage is also another way to test for the virus in large populations, but levels will also depend on other factors such as rainfall, which will dilute the samples.
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That is worse than Spanish Flu.
People love comparing any new infection with Spanish flu, but most of those comparisons miss something important. In 1920 most people worked almost to the point of death. They were typically fit enough to work until some point where they went downhill rapidly and were gone. Most people didn't spend years in a weak and vulnerable state, perhaps in care home, at the end of their lives. Now, retirement and care homes are a huge industry. We don't need something as powerful as Spanish flu to rip through a substantial section of the population. Any half assed infection novel enough to become widespread is a huge risk to the elderly, and new infections are popping up all the time. Just a couple of days ago I read about a new form of swine flu, while we are still in the middle of the COVID-19 problem. The inevitability of new pathogens needs to be factored into how society functions. Remember that Beijing was a large city when the largest cites in Europe were much smaller, and limited by their infection related death rates. Beijing was big through a single innovation in Chinese culture - hygiene. They didn't clean up the place because of an understanding of biology. It was mostly a cultural thing, because the city folk had to be more refined than the plebs in the countryside, but it worked. Civil engineering has done more to make the modern world healthy than any medical care. We need to up our hygiene game once again.
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That is worse than Spanish Flu.
People love comparing any new infection with Spanish flu, but most of those comparisons miss something important. In 1920 most people worked almost to the point of death. They were typically fit enough to work until some point where they went downhill rapidly and were gone. Most people didn't spend years in a weak and vulnerable state, perhaps in care home, at the end of their lives. Now, retirement and care homes are a huge industry. We don't need something as powerful as Spanish flu to rip through a substantial section of the population. Any half assed infection novel enough to become widespread is a huge risk to the elderly, and new infections are popping up all the time. Just a couple of days ago I read about a new form of swine flu, while we are still in the middle of the COVID-19 problem. The inevitability of new pathogens needs to be factored into how society functions. Remember that Beijing was a large city when the largest cites in Europe were much smaller, and limited by their infection related death rates. Beijing was big through a single innovation in Chinese culture - hygiene. They didn't clean up the place because of an understanding of biology. It was mostly a cultural thing, because the city folk had to be more refined than the plebs in the countryside, but it worked. Civil engineering has done more to make the modern world healthy than any medical care. We need to up our hygiene game once again.
I agree, we can't compare COVID-19 to the Spanish flu, because the health of the human population and level of medical care aren't equal.
The Spanish flu disproportionately affected younger people, whislt COVID-19 tends to kill the old, as most viruses do. This could be because conditions favoured more spread in sicker, young patients. Normally when people get flu, the sicker they become, the more likely they'll stay in and not go to work, thus transmitting it to fewer people, than those who have a milder illness, which tends to make it less deadly, over time. In the case of the Spanish flu, there are large outbreaks on the battlefield and the sickest people were transported to hospital, allowing the infection to be transmitted to medical personnel, who spreaded it further. As with COVID-19, lots of the damage is caused by the immune response, so younger people with strong immune systems were disproportionately affected. Unfortunately we don't know why the same isn't the case with COVID-19.
We now have better treatments and people are more well fed, than back in 1918, which would have made the Spanish flu more deadly, than if the same disease would occur today. One of the reasons why the Asian flu pandemic of 1958 wasn't as bad, was probably due to better diets, healthcare and a vaccine being developed.
Unfortunately if COVID-19 mutates, I suspect it will be to increase the length of the asymptomatic period, rathar than becomming less deadly, because we're quarantining people.
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Unfortunately if COVID-19 mutates, I suspect it will be to increase the length of the asymptomatic period, rathar than becomming less deadly, because we're quarantining people.
The virus mutates with some regularity. Question becomes whether there are biologically significant mutations and do they become dominant. There is some compelling evidence that the D614G mutation is both https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/06/29/coronavirus-mutation-science/?arc404=true (https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/06/29/coronavirus-mutation-science/?arc404=true)
It is speculative, but there is some evidence/belief that the mutation effect speeds transmission.
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One of the biggest reasons the Spanish Flu spread in younger populations was because men were on the front lines and were returning home. Men of fighting age (18 ~ 30(?)) will have been most badly affected because of this. The secondary issue is that governments of the time covered up the virus because it was so devastating to morale. So people didn't take precautions as seriously as they should have. The name "Spanish Flu" comes from neutral Spain being the only country to regularly report on the virus so people believed it to be of Spanish origin. It was likely a mutated form of Russian Flu. This could also indicate a third reason as many older individuals had the milder Russian Flu during the 1890 pandemic, and had effectively gained immunity to Spanish Flu being so similar.
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It's official. Here in LA you can protest but you can not celebrate Independence day since fireworks are outlawed, no exceptions. You are allowed to stay home though, I guess that's nice.
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The idiocy of certain local governments astonishes me...
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I suspect that preventing people from protesting is difficult because the right to peaceful assembly is protected by the consitution, while fireworks and celebrating holidays are not constitutionally protected rights. I don't think the founding fathers were thinking about the threat of a global pandemic when they wrote the constitutional rights. Perhaps they didn't feel it necessary as anyone with any sense would take measures to protect themselves and others from infection but things seem to have changed. I suspect it's a combination of having a population that is too large, modern technology that spreads information around the world in seconds rather than uprisings and outrage being more isolated, and the fact that we've enjoyed generations of life being easier and more cushy than any point in human history.
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We also have the right to trade our labor as we please and they put a stop to that. There is absolutely zero consistency. They're threatening to revoke restaurant licenses if they offer goods and services too. I don't understand why you like to pick and choose which rights are good and which we can throw out. It's pure statism dictating the actions of supposedly free people. Did you know our tax money went towards the fireworks shows we're no longer allowed to have? You don't have to gather in large groups for fireworks because they're in the sky.
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We also have the right to trade our labor as we please and they put a stop to that. There is absolutely zero consistency. They're threatening to revoke restaurant licenses if they offer goods and services too. I don't understand why you like to pick and choose which rights are good and which we can throw out. It's pure statism dictating the actions of supposedly free people. Did you know our tax money went towards the fireworks shows we're no longer allowed to have? You don't have to gather in large groups for fireworks because they're in the sky.
Where did I say I like to pick and choose? I'm just stating reasons it may be difficult to prevent some things from a legal and logistical standpoint. If it were up to me I'd institute a consistent lockdown across the nation, close off state or county borders, close all non-essential gathering including churches and political rallies and ban the protesting too but it's not up to me and I don't know how you'd ever enforce it. They can't even keep people from burning down police stations and rampaging through cities destroying federal property and private businesses, the US government has utterly failed at it's most basic duties from the top down. The entire response to the pandemic and resulting unrest has been a chaotic train wreck mired in partisan bickering. It's a complete and utter shitshow, the rest of the world is looking at us with pity and disbelief.
I'd love to see a good fireworks show but you know as well as I do that there would be massive gatherings in every park within view. People are already crowding the parks and beaches any time the sun is out, there's no way they're going to spread out and behave at a large attraction like that, at least not with the geography in my area.
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the rest of the world is looking at us with pity and disbelief
Actually, we're grateful for the demo of how anywhere could be slightly worse here :-\
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(...)
I'd love to see a good fireworks show but you know as well as I do that there would be massive gatherings in every park within view. People are already crowding the parks and beaches any time the sun is out, there's no way they're going to spread out and behave at a large attraction like that, at least not with the geography in my area.
...and isn't that a right to assemble protected by the constitution as well? :-DD
Sure, maybe fireworks wouldn't happen, but if people want to go out on their Americana gear and celebrate, they can't be stopped.
Not only that, but chances of a 4th of July celebration assembly is much more likely to be peaceful than a protest.
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We also have the right to trade our labor as we please[...]
I don't think that has been completely true for a very long time. We all get put in little boxes and a lot of effort goes into making sure we stay there.
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We also have the right to trade our labor as we please[...]
I don't think that has been completely true for a very long time. We all get put in little boxes and a lot of effort goes into making sure we stay there.
We also have national minimum wage and that inhibits it, more micro management of it in some states/areas limits the ability further as well. Some trades are illegal(hired killer, prostitute in many areas, drug dealer etc...) but they're not strictly illegal it's just that in the course you're going to break the law. The idea is still there that the government can't/shouldn't tell me how I choose to trade my labor which is definitely being violated in its entirety for many people.
I'm high risk so I'm staying home anyway but I don't see how so many of these decisions change anything. The sheriffs have already said they won't enforce the beach bans and for the sake of liberty I hope the people who have already purchased the fireworks choose to have their show anyway. Just for the sake of liberty, the fireworks themselves are incidental.
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Somehow I don't think the framers of the constitution considered a global pandemic in a world with affordable mass transit in cars/buses/trains, and aircraft to spread any infection, when they were writing it.
There's an obsession with the constitution in the USA. No doubt it is important, having the right to free speech so emphasised in law is clearly useful and prevents many authoritarian behaviours from the government (e.g. banning flag burning.) But in the case of a pandemic, norms don't apply any more.
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Somehow I don't think the framers of the constitution considered a global pandemic in a world with affordable mass transit in cars/buses/trains, and aircraft to spread any infection, when they were writing it.
Since it was pandemics which allowed Europeans to settle North America so easily, I imagine the possibility of further pandemics rapidly spread by efficient travel technologies wouldn't have been too far from their minds.
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Somehow I don't think the framers of the constitution considered a global pandemic in a world with affordable mass transit in cars/buses/trains, and aircraft to spread any infection, when they were writing it.
There's an obsession with the constitution in the USA. No doubt it is important, having the right to free speech so emphasised in law is clearly useful and prevents many authoritarian behaviours from the government (e.g. banning flag burning.) But in the case of a pandemic, norms don't apply any more.
I admire the American constitution, but I don't understand why such an old document is not being kept up-to-date as time goes and society changes - surely America has moved on in 200 odd years...
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Somehow I don't think the framers of the constitution considered a global pandemic in a world with affordable mass transit in cars/buses/trains, and aircraft to spread any infection, when they were writing it.
There's an obsession with the constitution in the USA. No doubt it is important, having the right to free speech so emphasised in law is clearly useful and prevents many authoritarian behaviours from the government (e.g. banning flag burning.) But in the case of a pandemic, norms don't apply any more.
I admire the American constitution, but I don't understand why such an old document is not being kept up-to-date as time goes and society changes - surely America has moved on in 200 odd years...
Two issues there. One is they have changed it numerous times. That's what all the amendments do. The second is the whole point of a constitution is to be a framework that is damned hard to change. If it were easier it would just be some laws, and provide no framework at all.
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I admire the American constitution, but I don't understand why such an old document is not being kept up-to-date as time goes and society changes - surely America has moved on in 200 odd years...
See the 27 amendments to the US C over the years https://www.insider.com/what-are-all-the-amendments-us-constitution-meaning-history-2018-11#the-fifth-amendment-is-the-source-of-the-common-phrase-i-plead-the-fifth-5 (https://www.insider.com/what-are-all-the-amendments-us-constitution-meaning-history-2018-11#the-fifth-amendment-is-the-source-of-the-common-phrase-i-plead-the-fifth-5) and, of course, the many interpretations by the Judicial branch.
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Two issues there. One is they have changed it numerous times. That's what all the amendments do. The second is the whole point of a constitution is to be a framework that is damned hard to change. If it were easier it would just be some laws, and provide no framework at all.
Yes, it should not be completely immutable but it needs to be extremely difficult to change. Constitutional amendments should be given a great deal of thought and crafted very carefully. They should never be the product of emotion and never written in haste. It is the fundamental foundation on which all of our other laws are based, it cannot be in a constant state of flux.
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Never, EVER, taunt a virus.
[attachimg=1]
20-May-2020, Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantos, boasts about how well Florida was doing with Corona Virus and how the partisan media was going on and on about how Florida would be a hot spot opening up...
02-July-2020 Florida reports OVER 10,000 new cases today and 5,000-10,000 new cases every day for the last seven days.
Now, one could take some pride in how a State is doing, knocking on wood, calling for vigilance, telling everyone to keep it up and that things will get better eventually, but we are not out of the woods and we have to keep our guard up, you know, all that rational, non-partisan stuff....but Noooooooooooooooo.
More complete news conference viewable below in case it is too hard to believe...you can't make this stuff up and it is sad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qm6yjTrGkLc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qm6yjTrGkLc)
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20-May-2020, Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantos, boasts about how well Florida was doing with Corona Virus and how the partisan media was going on and on about how Florida would be a hot spot opening up...
02-July-2020 Florida reports OVER 10,000 new cases today and 5,000-10,000 new cases every day for the last seven days.
This illustrates what I've been trying to tell people for months now. I live in what was the epicenter for Covid infection in the entire US, it happened here first and then the same thing has gone on to happen throughout other parts of the country. Covid is no big deal, only a few infections, nothing to see here, then suddenly the shit hits the fan and the infection rate goes almost vertical, by the time you realize anything is wrong it's way too late to stop. We've seen this over and over again, I don't know what makes people think their area will somehow be different.
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20-May-2020, Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantos, boasts about how well Florida was doing with Corona Virus and how the partisan media was going on and on about how Florida would be a hot spot opening up...
02-July-2020 Florida reports OVER 10,000 new cases today and 5,000-10,000 new cases every day for the last seven days.
This illustrates what I've been trying to tell people for months now. I live in what was the epicenter for Covid infection in the entire US, it happened here first and then the same thing has gone on to happen throughout other parts of the country. Covid is no big deal, only a few infections, nothing to see here, then suddenly the shit hits the fan and the infection rate goes almost vertical, by the time you realize anything is wrong it's way too late to stop. We've seen this over and over again, I don't know what makes people think their area will somehow be different.
Hmmm... trying to think of a word that means the opposite of intelligent.... :D
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We also have national minimum wage and that inhibits it, more micro management of it in some states/areas limits the ability further as well. Some trades are illegal(hired killer, prostitute in many areas, drug dealer etc...) but they're not strictly illegal it's just that in the course you're going to break the law. The idea is still there that the government can't/shouldn't tell me how I choose to trade my labor which is definitely being violated in its entirety for many people.
That looks like a rather skewed definition of liberty. More like being anti-social / without respect for other people's wellbeing. The basic principle is that your freedom ends where another person's freedom starts. So you might want to argue that you are 'free' to do what you want but if that ends up hurting someone you have overstepped your boundaries. You might choose to become a hitman or drug-dealer but I'm quite sure you are aware that such professions end up hurting other people. The same goes for ignoring Covid-19 restrictions; you end up hurting other people.
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We also have national minimum wage and that inhibits it, more micro management of it in some states/areas limits the ability further as well. Some trades are illegal(hired killer, prostitute in many areas, drug dealer etc...) but they're not strictly illegal it's just that in the course you're going to break the law. The idea is still there that the government can't/shouldn't tell me how I choose to trade my labor which is definitely being violated in its entirety for many people.
That looks like a rather skewed definition of liberty. More like being anti-social / without respect for other people's wellbeing. The basic principle is that your freedom ends where another person's freedom starts. So you might want to argue that you are 'free' to do what you want but if that ends up hurting someone you have overstepped your boundaries. You might choose to become a hitman or drug-dealer but I'm quite sure you are aware that such professions end up hurting other people. The same goes for ignoring Covid-19 restrictions; you end up hurting other people.
Those professions, again, are illegal because you'll do illegal things in the course of them. I don't see the problem or why that's anti social? Same with restrictions that don't change end results. Fireworks for instance don't even require people to group up to enjoy them so what is the harm? How about a beach, in the sterilizing sun(as far as covid is concerned), where people typically don't want to be on top of each other anyway(maybe your beaches are different)? What about wearing a mask on my own property just because I'm outside, does that really make sense? I'm sure you can justify any restrictions but you could also just live in China and not have to think for yourself at all.
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hose professions, again, are illegal because you'll do illegal things in the course of them. I don't see the problem or why that's anti social?
If you knew you have HIV, would it be OK to express your freedom to have sex with whoever you want without telling them of your status?
And as often-cited, freedom of speech doesn't mean you can shout 'Fire!' in a packed theatre without consequences.
Neither of those involve illegal acts, so why is your freedom to pass covid19 around greater than someones freedom to not die prematurely because of your behaviour?
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It's literally legal here to have aids and not tell someone before you have unprotected sex. To me that's a criminal act but the US at large apparently disagrees. When did I ever say you should do these things or spread a disease? I'm saying restrictions which don't do anything aren't just idiotic but anti-america. However people at a long term care facility are commonly walking around my neighborhood during breaks with no masks which they should wear because they're constantly around high risk people and walking by people they couldn't know if they're carriers.
Again we're expecting everyone to catch it so protect those at risk and leave everyone else to their own devices. It'll sort itself out in a month rather than dragging it on forever. My local hospital would appreciate it if the constant mailers saying please come in are anything to go by.
Again, I'm high risk so I stay home. I'm honestly more worried about the government passing more trillion+ dollar bills than the Coronavirus.
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It's literally legal here to have aids and not tell someone before you have unprotected sex. To me that's a criminal act but the US at large apparently disagrees. /--/
Although laws vary by states, what you say there is not true. You can be held criminally libel for transmitting HIV in all sorts of ways, including various acts and not telling the other person of your status. That is how I read the laws here https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/policies/law/states/exposure.html (https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/policies/law/states/exposure.html)
Did you mean to say it that way?
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Again we're expecting everyone to catch it so protect those at risk and leave everyone else to their own devices.
Everyone's at risk, it's just a matter of what level of risk the line is drawn at. Since covid19 risk is rather higher than a vaccine risk, you'd expect a third of the US to be hiding under the bedclothes.
Again, I'm high risk so I stay home.
Well, that's easy for you. Typically, higher risk people are those that are forced to be exposed through poverty and such like.
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Clearly not everyone is at risk or there would be no asymptomatic cases, right? I wouldn't expect people who live here to be hiding, I'd expect them to take the precautions they consider necessary because what they do is on them. Yea, it's easy for me to not go to parties, protests, and restaurants because... Why? I'm not rich, I have no income right now as a matter of fact so I don't think poverty has anything to do with it. You're not prevented from taking the precautions you'd like because you're poor since there is very little you can do that costs a bunch of money.
(HIV)Yea, in some states you can. In my home state it was a felony... Right up until they made it a misdemeanor about two years ago. UP TO 6 months for it. So you give someone a death penalty(and certainly a new way of life) and all you potentially suffer is 6 months? It's not even an HIV/AIDS law, it's just spreading communicable diseases. Yea, seems about right. The other issues is the lack of disclosure laws. Without requiring people to disclose people can't even make informed decisions.
For me I'd rather people make their own informed choices. The informed part is difficult with all the flip-flopping and lying but using best available data you do what seems right. Business doesn't require masks? Don't go there if that makes you uncomfortable. Every hospital I've been to requires a mask since this started. Don't go to parties if it makes you uncomfortable, don't go to a restaurant if it worries you. If your employer doesn't require masks ask for time off, find a new job if you're able, or just take precautions you can.
You can't even buy masks right now because of the institutional hoarding but if they hadn't panicked everyone it likely wouldn't have happened and they'd be available for everyone. The suppliers only ran out because everyone was expecting new york numbers(alternatively italy number) everywhere. They can still use the masks but with lots of hospitals not seeing "normal" numbers of patients they would have been better off not purchasing so many to begin with.
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For me I'd rather people make their own informed choices. The informed part is difficult with all the flip-flopping and lying but using best available data you do what seems right. Business doesn't require masks? Don't go there if that makes you uncomfortable. Every hospital I've been to requires a mask since this started. Don't go to parties if it makes you uncomfortable, don't go to a restaurant if it worries you. If your employer doesn't require masks ask for time off, find a new job if you're able, or just take precautions you can.
That sounds great in theory except it doesn't work. Ok so I choose not to go to a business that doesn't require masks, but some other person does choose to go there and then they infect me and 5 other people, and then I infect 5 other people before I know I'm sick, and each of those 5 people infect other people, pretty soon everyone is sick. People have demonstrated time after time after time that they don't make informed decisions, either out of ignorance or they willfully don't care about anyone but themselves. If people DID behave sensibly we wouldn't need all these requirements, the requirements came after people already were not taking precautions. It's not a matter of protecting everyone from themselves, it's protecting the rest of us from people who don't protect themselves. We don't all live in isolation, what everyone does affects everyone they come into contact with, this is not a matter of personal choice.
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You can't even buy masks right now because of the institutional hoarding
That was true early on, but you're out of date, at least in California (which I believe is your location also). I've seen them on the shelves, or you can order them: https://www.walmart.com/browse/health/face-coverings-masks/976760_3386211 (https://www.walmart.com/browse/health/face-coverings-masks/976760_3386211)
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You can't even buy masks right now because of the institutional hoarding
That was true early on, but you're out of date, at least in California (which I believe is your location also). I've seen them on the shelves, or you can order them: https://www.walmart.com/browse/health/face-coverings-masks/976760_3386211 (https://www.walmart.com/browse/health/face-coverings-masks/976760_3386211)
I should have specified. I meant masks that can protect the wearer(n/p/r). I usually keep stock of p95 masks for my own uses but since this started it's been all but impossible to get them. I've been using them and some sealed motorcycle sunglasses for all my doctor's appts(hospitals and specialists) and when I needed new tires installed(I can't balance single sided swingarm at home). I've started postponing my doctor appointments since I can't replenish my stock. Since the mask mandate the cheap masks that are more effective in protecting others have been available and cheap.
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I admire the American constitution, but I don't understand why such an old document is not being kept up-to-date as time goes and society changes - surely America has moved on in 200 odd years...
YOU CAN'T CHANGE THE Nth AMENDMENT.
Dumbest thing ever said.... em.... it's an amendment.
It's like looking at a datasheet with an erratum and saying, "You can't change the 5th erratum!"
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The US constitution is literally designed to be hard to change.
You need 2/3rd of senators and house members to agree. Then to ratify it, 3/4ths of states have to agree. Given most of the senate and states would disagree which day of the week it was to spite the other, I don't see anything but the most broadly-supported amendments passing. Sadly.
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If you knew you have HIV, would it be OK to express your freedom to have sex with whoever you want without telling them of your status?
And as often-cited, freedom of speech doesn't mean you can shout 'Fire!' in a packed theatre without consequences.
Neither of those involve illegal acts, so why is your freedom to pass covid19 around greater than someones freedom to not die prematurely because of your behaviour?
It is in fact illegal to knowingly pass HIV in the many states of the USA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criminal_transmission_of_HIV_in_the_United_States
It strikes me that COVID-19 should be similar.
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The US constitution is literally designed to be hard to change.
You need 2/3rd of senators and house members to agree. Then to ratify it, 3/4ths of states have to agree. Given most of the senate and states would disagree which day of the week it was to spite the other, I don't see anything but the most broadly-supported amendments passing. Sadly.
The fact that it's very hard to change is by design. We've never had a monarch who could be the final deciding factor, the constitution is quite literally the foundation on which the entire framework is built upon. If it was easier to change things would be chaotic, we already have problems in this era of social media mobs and rapid (mis)information flow of the sides shifting more and more toward polarized extremes, flipping from one to the other as people get sick of whichever side is in power and vote in the other side. The constitution provides inalienable fundamental rights, it is in a sense sacred.
The dysfunction you noted is a serious problem though, stemming from the ever increasing polarization and I don't really know how to solve that. I'd really like to see much of the current government replaced with mature adults, people who have a pragmatic approach and some willingness to work together rather than viewing anyone on the other side as the enemy. I've never really understood the fanaticism and devotion so many people show toward their political party, both sides are occasionally right and often wrong, extremism is at risk of destroying us.
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Our Victorian government has made some stupid mistakes lately so a lot more people will be working from home very soon. They have allowed the selfish and irresponsible public (about 98% of shoppers) to not social distance and not wear masks :palm:. The public's ideology is to do WTF they want and to hell with everyone else. Testing, wearing masks and not keeping 1.5m distance in public is optional here, but it should be it should be mandatory and policed with heavy penalties with the help of the military. By the end of July this entire state of 6.4 million people will most likely be in full lock down once again. So very soon it will back to work from home for most Victorians.
Its used to be (to the tune of the seven dwarfs' song):
" I owe, I owe, it's off to work I go."
Soon it will be:
"Oh no, oh no, its work from home oh no."
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I admire the American constitution, but I don't understand why such an old document is not being kept up-to-date as time goes and society changes - surely America has moved on in 200 odd years...
YOU CAN'T CHANGE THE Nth AMENDMENT.
Dumbest thing ever said.... em.... it's an amendment.
It's like looking at a datasheet with an erratum and saying, "You can't change the 5th erratum!"
It's case law that matters, not the exact wording of the Constitution. The Supreme Court decides if case law is reasonably consistent with the Constitution or their interpretation of the intent of the Constitution. The sc is also in charge of deciding if new case law is consistent with old case law.
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And even with the best of intentions, one cannot change human nature even if you put it in the Constitution. The obvious example are the 18th and 21st amendments. The former created prohibition of liquor in 1919, and the latter repealed it in 1933 as a failure. Alcohol consumption merely went underground rather than going away, and created more organized crime and political corruption. (And worst of all, loss of revenue from all those sinners -- illegal alcohol is also untaxed alcohol.)
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And even with the best of intentions, one cannot change human nature even if you put it in the Constitution. The obvious example are the 18th and 21st amendments. The former created prohibition of liquor in 1919, and the latter repealed it in 1933 as a failure. Alcohol consumption merely went underground rather than going away, and created more organized crime and political corruption. (And worst of all, loss of revenue from all those sinners -- illegal alcohol is also untaxed alcohol.)
Parallels with the legalisation of marijuana?
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Parallels with the legalisation of marijuana?
There are a lot of parallels there, both are widely used recreational drugs, both have similar effects, alcohol is arguably much more harmful of the two. It should have been legalized decades ago, or never been illegal in the first place as it's a plant that grows naturally. It's fine for it to be illegal to be high in public just as it's illegal to be drunk in public but what someone does in privacy is their own business. Stoned people are typically not violent, they're rarely out driving around, too lazy to be out causing trouble. I don't really understand why alcohol is so much more widely accepted, it's extremely harmful stuff but people are gonna drink it anyway. Prohibition doesn't work and never has.
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I don't really understand why alcohol is so much more widely accepted, it's extremely harmful stuff but people are gonna drink it anyway.
money,not just from lost alcohol revenue,but also the oil and paper industry's were afraid they'd lose out to hemp.
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money,not just from lost alcohol revenue,but also the oil and paper industry's were afraid they'd lose out to hemp.
That doesn't really make any sense. They legalized the stuff here in my state a few years ago and it has become a multibillion dollar industry and a huge tax windfall for the state. If hemp became popular as a base for paper I see no reason the existing paper industry couldn't jump on board with it.
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That doesn't really make any sense. They legalized the stuff here in my state a few years ago and it has become a multibillion dollar industry and a huge tax windfall for the state.
If you've invested a large lump of money in forestry and lumber mills,or in the latest breakthroughs in oil based products like nylon would you be happy about this weed called hemp,that can grow almost anywhere that threatens to make your product less valuable,or would you have a quiet word with your mate,who may have shares in your company, to see if they might be able to do something about the threat to there investments.
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395.5 million out of 22.28 Billion is not what I'd call a windfall.
https://tre.wa.gov/portfolio-item/washington-state-marijuana-revenues-and-health/
https://ballotpedia.org/Tax_policy_in_Washington
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If you've invested a large lump of money in forestry and lumber mills,or in the latest breakthroughs in oil based products like nylon would you be happy about this weed called hemp,that can grow almost anywhere that threatens to make your product less valuable,or would you have a quiet word with your mate,who may have shares in your company, to see if they might be able to do something about the threat to there investments.
I wouldn't be worried at all. There is a huge market for wood, IMO it's a waste to use it for producing paper if there is any alternative. Lumber has gotten very expensive, virtually all houses in this region are made of wood. Oil is another resource that has virtually unlimited demand, plastics, paints, foams, lubricants, it's used either directly or indirectly in the manufacture of practically everything. No amount of alternative products are going to make a significant long term dent in the value of resources like wood or oil.
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395.5 million out of 22.28 Billion is not what I'd call a windfall.
https://tre.wa.gov/portfolio-item/washington-state-marijuana-revenues-and-health/
https://ballotpedia.org/Tax_policy_in_Washington
You don't consider almost half a billion dollars for one single industry out of a total of only 22.3 billion for the entire state tax revenue to be a windfall? :-// I'd consider that HUGE.
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Alcohol can't be banned, because it's a very simple chemical, which can be fermented from any carbohydrate. Cannabis is more more tricky to produce.
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Oil is another resource that has virtually unlimited demand, plastics, paints, foams, lubricants, it's used either directly or indirectly in the manufacture of practically everything
At the time the law was introduced the full potential of oil was only just being discovered,lots of money invested no one had bothered to research the potential of hemp.
Cannabis is more more tricky to produce
:-DD
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Cannabis is more more tricky to produce
:-DD
Why is that funny, or are you just trolling? I can make alcohol from ingredients I already have in my kitchen cupboard. If I want to grow cannabis I have to get hold of the seeds first and I wouldn't know where to start.
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395.5 million out of 22.28 Billion is not what I'd call a windfall.
https://tre.wa.gov/portfolio-item/washington-state-marijuana-revenues-and-health/
https://ballotpedia.org/Tax_policy_in_Washington
You don't consider almost half a billion dollars for one single industry out of a total of only 22.3 billion for the entire state tax revenue to be a windfall? :-// I'd consider that HUGE.
Apparently taxes for 2019 were 25.74 billion so it's even smaller a percentage(https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Docs/Reports/2019/Tax_Statistics_2019/Tax_Statistics_2019.pdf). So 1.5% of total tax revenue... No I don't think that's a windfall. It's fine to disagree. I'm not for or against marijuana(unless it's in my house). That goes for cigarettes and tobacco too. Alcohol was just barely beat out by marijuana and cigarettes and tobacco beat out both. All 3 together only made up 4.6% of tax revenue.
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Why is that funny, or are you just trolling? I can make alcohol from ingredients I already have in my kitchen cupboard.
And how did you find out how to make alcohol?someone told you,or you read it somewhere, you've researched the theory.You decide to grow weed,you research ,once youve the seeds it can be as simple as chuck em in the ground and wait,much easier than brewing even the most basic rotgut hooch.
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Cannabis is more more tricky to produce
:-DD
Why is that funny, or are you just trolling? I can make alcohol from ingredients I already have in my kitchen cupboard. If I want to grow cannabis I have to get hold of the seeds first and I wouldn't know where to start.
Google... :palm: Or in my case the girl in front of me when I was in school over 30 years ago :-DD
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Apparently taxes for 2019 were 25.74 billion so it's even smaller a percentage(https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Docs/Reports/2019/Tax_Statistics_2019/Tax_Statistics_2019.pdf). So 1.5% of total tax revenue... No I don't think that's a windfall. It's fine to disagree. I'm not for or against marijuana(unless it's in my house). That goes for cigarettes and tobacco too. Alcohol was just barely beat out by marijuana and cigarettes and tobacco beat out both. All 3 together only made up 4.6% of tax revenue.
1.5% of the *total* tax revenue collected by the state from *everything* from just *one* niche industry? That's big! It's almost as much as is collected on alcohol and that's available in every grocery store, corner shop, bar, most restaurants, etc.
I mean personally I could take it or leave it, but I think it's ridiculous to classify it the same as hard drugs. Pot can absolutely ruin a person's life, ironically from the legal consequences of being caught with a bit of the stuff in some parts of the country. Sure overuse can lead to a person being a lazy burnout stoner and I've known a few of those however I've known a LOT more hardcore alcoholics, including a few who literally drank themselves to death.
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Getting back on track (and off the illegal drugs crap), it is possible working from home will become the norm.
Companies in Australia are now realising it is much cheaper for employees to work from home. The energy bills are all paid for by the employee and over here it is an attractive tax deduction of 80 cents per hour worked from home. Even so, most electronics professionals lack decent test equipment of their own, so they have to go into the lab on site at the company. Software programmers can work form home.
The advantages are many in working from home: less road traffic, less air pollution, no travel time, less change of a burglary on your home because it is occupied, more time with the wife and kids, less time having to work physically with people you might not like, more profits for the company. And for many electronics engineers, isolation is nothing new as they lack people skills and have no friends :D.
So it seems the pros outweigh the cons.
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Getting back on track (and off the illegal drugs crap), it is possible working from home will become the norm.
Companies in Australia are now realising it is much cheaper for employees to work from home. The energy bills are all paid for by the employee and over here it is an attractive tax deduction of 80 cents per hour worked from home. Even so, most electronics professionals lack decent test equipment of their own, so they have to go into the lab on site at the company. Software programmers can work form home.
The advantages are many in working from home: less road traffic, less air pollution, no travel time, less change of a burglary on your home because it is occupied, more time with the wife and kids, less time having to work physically with people you might not like, more profits for the company. And for many electronics engineers, isolation is nothing new as they lack people skills and have no friends :D.
So it seems the pros outweigh the cons.
It would be good to have a mix of office and home working - that sounds like the ideal solution, where you have some of the benefits of both.
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It would be good to have a mix of office and home working - that sounds like the ideal solution, where you have some of the benefits of both.
Before the pandemic I was going into the office twice, occasionally three days a week and working from home the other days, that was just about perfect for me. Working from home full time has been nice though, at first the isolation kind of bothered me but now it just feels normal. I've saved a ton of money overall, I haven't been eating out for lunch 2-3 days a week, I haven't been spending $15-$20 a week on bus fare, I haven't put gas in my car since February. Regardless of what the pandemic does I don't plan on going downtown until all the civil unrest has fizzled out, I loathe crowds and angry mobs are absolutely terrifying.
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[...] Working from home full time has been nice though, at first the isolation kind of bothered me but now it just feels normal. [...]
I miss going to the office, there is a "randomness factor" missing from the genetic algorithm of work and life, as a result!
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Why is that funny, or are you just trolling? I can make alcohol from ingredients I already have in my kitchen cupboard.
And how did you find out how to make alcohol?someone told you,or you read it somewhere, you've researched the theory.You decide to grow weed,you research ,once youve the seeds it can be as simple as chuck em in the ground and wait,much easier than brewing even the most basic rotgut hooch.
No, I made alcohol accidentally. No books, Internet or research were required. When I was a teenager, I discovered unpasteurised apple juice would turn into cider if left for long enough. I didn't know why at the time, but now I know it's because the natural yeast on the fruit skin caused it to ferment into alcohol.
Alcohol forms naturally on its own in piles of rotting fruit. It's impossible to ban, because unlike other drugs such as cannabis or opium, it doesn't require a specific plant to make. It doesn't require any land or light and can be made in a cupboard, where no one can see. I bet prisoners growing weed is much more rare than making hooch.
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Try distilling your own poteen in the UK and see how long it takes for you to find out it's banned.
Anyway, on both cases:
Chucking some apples in a barrel and hoping to get beautiful scumpy jack.
Throwing some seeds in the dirt and waiting.
Will most likely not produce what you wanted. To get quality worth your effort you need to go quite a bit further.
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Try distilling your own poteen in the UK and see how long it takes for you to find out it's banned.
Anyway, on both cases:
Chucking some apples in a barrel and hoping to get beautiful scumpy jack.
Throwing some seeds in the dirt and waiting.
Will most likely not produce what you wanted. To get quality worth your effort you need to go quite a bit further.
I agree. The cider I wasn't good, but at least it got me drunk which was the desired result. Alcohol can be made with any food containing carbohydrates, such as bread. The same can't be said for cannabis. You can't ban a substance which is so easy to make and even forms on its own.
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You can't ban a substance which is so easy to make and even forms on its own.
But you 'can' ban one that exists naturally in the wild with or without human intervention?
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Used to make cider with bread yeast and carton apple juice when I was a kid :-//. Requires some 2L coke bottles, lots of sugar, some condoms and some tape. Oh and a few hours when the parents are off out. Where there’s a will there’s a way :-DD
You can make vodka with toilet rolls as well.
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You can make vodka with toilet rolls as well.
NileRed?
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Used to make cider with bread yeast and carton apple juice when I was a kid :-//. Requires some 2L coke bottles, lots of sugar, some condoms and some tape. Oh and a few hours when the parents are off out. Where there’s a will there’s a way :-DD
You can make vodka with toilet rolls as well.
Yes, but would you WANT to? :D
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No, I made alcohol accidentally. No books, Internet or research were required.
and you can grow hemp accidentally without knowledge if your careless with your bird seed or fishing bait
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-29301803 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-29301803)
I bet prisoners growing weed is much more rare than making hooch.
simple logistics,its easier to smuggle an 1/8 of weed in than it is a bottle of hooch,to get the same monetary return youd be looking at a minimum of half a bottle of spirts
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You can make vodka with toilet rolls as well.
NileRed?
My chemistry teacher beat him by about 25 years but it did jog the memory.
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No, I made alcohol accidentally. No books, Internet or research were required.
and you can grow hemp accidentally without knowledge if your careless with your bird seed or fishing bait
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-29301803 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-29301803)
I've heard of similar stories before, but you're missing the point. Alcohol is much easier to produce than weed, so it's much harder to ban.
I bet prisoners growing weed is much more rare than making hooch.
simple logistics,its easier to smuggle an 1/8 of weed in than it is a bottle of hooch,to get the same monetary return youd be looking at a minimum of half a bottle of spirts
On the other hand, alcohol can be made from ingredients in the kitchen: no smuggling necessary.
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Both/either are probably pretty easy to make/grow for an enterprising person...
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Both/either are probably pretty easy to make/grow for an enterprising person...
If I were to grow an illegal drug, it would be opium. Poppies are less fussy, than cannabis. The seed can be sown in the Autumn and the poppies will flower the following year. After they've flowered, cut grooves in the seed heads, the sap will flow out and dry forming opium.
I don't drink alcohol, nor do drugs, except for coffee and energy drinks nowadays, so there's no point in me doing either and it's not worth the risk doing it to sell.
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Regeneron starts Phase 3 trial of Covid antibody drug that might treat and prevent infection, company says
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/regeneron-coronavirus-antibody-drug-bn/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/regeneron-coronavirus-antibody-drug-bn/index.html)
Headline is a bit ambitious as they are about to start both Phase 2 and Phase 3. Still, it is very encouraging as they made it past Phase 1 (safety).
Background:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/15/science.abd0827 (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/15/science.abd0827)
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/15/science.abd0831 (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/15/science.abd0831)
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It's the staff that quickly spread it around- they work shifts at multiple care facilities.
That's why I said they should have put effort into putting protection systems in place for the vulnerable. Just in Australia this thing was costing us around $4BN a week, that buys you a lot of protection measures.
At the very least I would have liked to have seen a cop stationed at the entry to every retirement village restricting access, but it never happened, at least not here.
One plus side of all of this is that people are more vigilant now, so that should help reduce spread of covid and all the other viruses. I would expect a reduction of flu related deaths this season because of this (we are in flu season here now).
"I would expect a reduction of flu related deaths this season because of this (we are in flu season here now)."
Australia sees huge decrease in flu cases due to coronavirus measures...
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/)
(of course that is a report that is 6 weeks old, but still good news)
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Today some protesters against the lock-down measures in the Netherlands demonstrated how well they are informed. They held a protest in front of a building of a newspaper. Only problem for them was: the newspaper moved 8 years ago :-DD
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It's the staff that quickly spread it around- they work shifts at multiple care facilities.
That's why I said they should have put effort into putting protection systems in place for the vulnerable. Just in Australia this thing was costing us around $4BN a week, that buys you a lot of protection measures.
At the very least I would have liked to have seen a cop stationed at the entry to every retirement village restricting access, but it never happened, at least not here.
One plus side of all of this is that people are more vigilant now, so that should help reduce spread of covid and all the other viruses. I would expect a reduction of flu related deaths this season because of this (we are in flu season here now).
"I would expect a reduction of flu related deaths this season because of this (we are in flu season here now)."
Australia sees huge decrease in flu cases due to coronavirus measures...
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/)
(of course that is a report that is 6 weeks old, but still good news)
I doubt that. It is like unplugging the internet cable from your computer. Look, no more malware. But the anti-malware updates also stop. As I wrote before: resistance against mild flu virusses wears off over time so the longer you are getting no updates in the form of mild flu the harder you'll be hit.
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It's the staff that quickly spread it around- they work shifts at multiple care facilities.
That's why I said they should have put effort into putting protection systems in place for the vulnerable. Just in Australia this thing was costing us around $4BN a week, that buys you a lot of protection measures.
At the very least I would have liked to have seen a cop stationed at the entry to every retirement village restricting access, but it never happened, at least not here.
One plus side of all of this is that people are more vigilant now, so that should help reduce spread of covid and all the other viruses. I would expect a reduction of flu related deaths this season because of this (we are in flu season here now).
"I would expect a reduction of flu related deaths this season because of this (we are in flu season here now)."
Australia sees huge decrease in flu cases due to coronavirus measures...
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/)
(of course that is a report that is 6 weeks old, but still good news)
Well it's good news that less people are dying from flu.
I doubt that. It is like unplugging the internet cable from your computer. Look, no more malware. But the anti-malware updates also stop. As I wrote before: resistance against mild flu virusses wears off over time so the longer you are getting no updates in the form of mild flu the harder you'll be hit.
I doubt immunity wears off that quickly. I believe it lasts for a couple of years after exposure. It will be interesting to see what happens next flu season.
Another factor might be vaccination. Are more people getting the flu jab, than normal? In the UK, the government are going to be investing extra in flu vaccinations because they don't want people becoming infected with both flu and COVID-19, which will result in a much higher mortality rate.
My employer offers all workers the flu vaccine for free. I normally don't bother, since I consider myself to be low risk and would rather those who need it more get it, but this year I might even pay for a vaccination, as I don't want both. Another thing is, I don't want to spread either virus. This pandemic has changed my attitude to illnes. In the past I've gone out when ill and spread it to more vulnerable people. A couple of years ago I went swimming with my nephews, sister and brother in law, when I felt a bit ill. I remember shivering in the pool and felt terrible afterwards. I probably had one day off work, at most, before I was well enough to return, but my brother in law soon fell ill and had to go to hospital. My sister blamed me for giving it to him, but I doubted it at the time. Now I think it's likely I had flu, but because I'm fit and healthy and he's obese, I had a much milder illness than him. I'll still be more careful, even when this COVID-19 pandemic is over.
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I was simply commenting that what Dave speculated might happen, may, in fact, be happening - based on that one news report and accompanying graph.
I was not thinking about immunity issues at all but rather that it is due to an increased awareness of better sanitary habits - being careful not to spread your germs - a vigilance.
Immunity from flu shots seems to be reported at about 6 months (https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp (https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp)).
Immunity from actually having the flu is less well known, but is much more likely to be much longer (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/ (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/)).
Of course, all that immunity needs to be qualified as to whether immunity from one type generalizes to another variety.
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I was simply commenting that what Dave speculated might happen, may, in fact, be happening - based on that one news report and accompanying graph.
I was not thinking about immunity issues at all but rather that it is due to an increased awareness of better sanitary habits - being careful not to spread your germs - a vigilance.
Immunity from flu shots seems to be reported at about 6 months (https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp (https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp)).
Immunity from actually having the flu is less well known, but is much more likely to be much longer (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/ (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/)).
Immunity from the first flu is only against that particular virus strain. Any other flu virus (Corona, Influenza and Rhino strains) causes temporary immunity. This immunity wears off after a couple of years.
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I live in the state of Victoria which is about to become the world's biggest "prison" of 6.6 million people for the next six weeks at least. We are in lock down as of 12pm tomorrow night. New South Wales border will be fortified with police and the military. Movement between states can only be done with a special pass, which is not available as yet.
The cause for this massive lock down is twofold:
1. Government not policing social distancing, not enforcing mask wearing, not policing quarantine hotels (a debacle), and allowing tens of thousands of BLM "concerned citizens" and the Greenies to protest march.
2. Reckless citizens. Crowds at shopping centres, not social distancing and not wearing masks. I have witnessed it. About half the people requested to be tested in hotspots declined. The BLMers and Greenies demonstrated their contempt for their fellow citizens. Selfish and irresponsible public in general.
The solution:
1. Authoritarian government that can make hard and wise decisions.
2. Punishment for citizens who do not obey the strict rules.
Work wise, I will be working mostly on PCBA development and documentation from my office. I will cope quite well considering the amount of work I have.
I feel sorry for the school kids who have to take more time off school and be in isolation. And the vulnerable. It is not fair to them.
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I live in the state of Victoria which is about to become the world's biggest "prison" of 6.6 million people for the next six weeks at least. We are in lock down as of 12pm tomorrow night. New South Wales border will be fortified with police and the military. Movement between states can only be done with a special pass, which is not available as yet.
The cause for this massive lock down is twofold:
1. Government not policing social distancing, not enforcing mask wearing, not policing quarantine hotels (a debacle), and allowing tens of thousands of BLM "concerned citizens" and the Greenies to protest march.
2. Reckless citizens. Crowds at shopping centres, not social distancing and not wearing masks. I have witnessed it. About half the people requested to be tested in hotspots declined. The BLMers and Greenies demonstrated their contempt for their fellow citizens. Selfish and irresponsible public in general.
The solution:
1. Authoritarian government that can make hard and wise decisions.
2. Punishment for citizens who do not obey the strict rules.
Work wise, I will be working mostly on PCBA development and documentation from my office. I will cope quite well considering the amount of work I have.
I feel sorry for the school kids who have to take more time off school and be in isolation. And the vulnerable. It is not fair to them.
Last week our Premier (NSW) told us not to welcome Victorians into our houses. I thought "Yep. Them and homosexuals"
;)
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I was simply commenting that what Dave speculated might happen, may, in fact, be happening - based on that one news report and accompanying graph.
I was not thinking about immunity issues at all but rather that it is due to an increased awareness of better sanitary habits - being careful not to spread your germs - a vigilance.
Immunity from flu shots seems to be reported at about 6 months (https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp (https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp)).
Immunity from actually having the flu is less well known, but is much more likely to be much longer (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/ (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/)).
Immunity from the first flu is only against that particular virus strain. Any other flu virus (Corona, Influenza and Rhino strains) causes temporary immunity. This immunity wears off after a couple of years.
Corona and Rhino viruses are not related to flu.
Immunity is not binary. Someone who's been exposed to or immunised against a certain virus doesn't suddenly lose all of their immunity after a set period such as six months. They might get the same virus again, but have a much milder illness this time, because they will still have some immunity.
I live in the state of Victoria which is about to become the world's biggest "prison" of 6.6 million people for the next six weeks at least. We are in lock down as of 12pm tomorrow night. New South Wales border will be fortified with police and the military. Movement between states can only be done with a special pass, which is not available as yet.
The cause for this massive lock down is twofold:
1. Government not policing social distancing, not enforcing mask wearing, not policing quarantine hotels (a debacle), and allowing tens of thousands of BLM "concerned citizens" and the Greenies to protest march.
2. Reckless citizens. Crowds at shopping centres, not social distancing and not wearing masks. I have witnessed it. About half the people requested to be tested in hotspots declined. The BLMers and Greenies demonstrated their contempt for their fellow citizens. Selfish and irresponsible public in general.
The solution:
1. Authoritarian government that can make hard and wise decisions.
2. Punishment for citizens who do not obey the strict rules.
Work wise, I will be working mostly on PCBA development and documentation from my office. I will cope quite well considering the amount of work I have.
I feel sorry for the school kids who have to take more time off school and be in isolation. And the vulnerable. It is not fair to them.
None of that surprises me and don't get me started on the BML movement, who've lost all credability with many people. If they really cared about anyone's life, they wouldn't have acted in such a wrecless manner. They're mostly a load of pathetic social justice warriors who are pissed off because they've not been allowed to socialise during lockdown and needed a release. I'm all of wiping out racism, but this is not the way to do it.
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I was simply commenting that what Dave speculated might happen, may, in fact, be happening - based on that one news report and accompanying graph.
I was not thinking about immunity issues at all but rather that it is due to an increased awareness of better sanitary habits - being careful not to spread your germs - a vigilance.
Immunity from flu shots seems to be reported at about 6 months (https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp (https://www.immunize.org/askexperts/experts_inf.asp)).
Immunity from actually having the flu is less well known, but is much more likely to be much longer (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/ (https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/)).
Immunity from the first flu is only against that particular virus strain. Any other flu virus (Corona, Influenza and Rhino strains) causes temporary immunity. This immunity wears off after a couple of years.
Corona and Rhino viruses are not related to flu.
Technically speaking not but they all cause the same symptoms for a sickness called 'the flu' or 'cold' in general.
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In the caring UK our very nice taxman has decided if your company pays for your corona test its a taxable benefit,how nice of them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53324101 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53324101)
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Cunts!
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Cunts!
Couldn't have put it better myself
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if your company pays for your corona test its a taxable benefit
!
That's scraping the barrel a bit, to put it mildly. However, I would argue that it is a business expense since its primary effect is to the business (that is, whether they can give you work or have other employees isolate). The benefit to the employee is only incidental.
Next, they'll consider PPE to be a taxable benefit whereas it should be a tool required to do your job (hence a person should get a tax refund if they've bought some).
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if your company pays for your corona test its a taxable benefit
!
That's scraping the barrel a bit, to put it mildly. However, I would argue that it is a business expense since its primary effect is to the business (that is, whether they can give you work or have other employees isolate). The benefit to the employee is only incidental.
Next, they'll consider PPE to be a taxable benefit whereas it should be a tool required to do your job (hence a person should get a tax refund if they've bought some).
Obviously a COVID-19 test benifits society, not just the employer, so taxing it is stupid, especially when such tests are handed out freely by the NHS.
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if your company pays for your corona test its a taxable benefit
!
That's scraping the barrel a bit, to put it mildly. However, I would argue that it is a business expense since its primary effect is to the business (that is, whether they can give you work or have other employees isolate). The benefit to the employee is only incidental.
Next, they'll consider PPE to be a taxable benefit whereas it should be a tool required to do your job (hence a person should get a tax refund if they've bought some).
We have a free health care system in the UK. If your employer pays for additional private health care that is consider a perk, and taxed. The government hasn't specifically decided to tax COVID-19 tests. They just tax private health care perks. They would have needed to take specific action NOT to tax these tests.
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Why would you want to tax individuals health care with a socialized system? I get you do it if you can but I'd think that you'd want to promote that since then they pay in to the system but take less out.
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if your company pays for your corona test its a taxable benefit
!
That's scraping the barrel a bit, to put it mildly. However, I would argue that it is a business expense since its primary effect is to the business (that is, whether they can give you work or have other employees isolate). The benefit to the employee is only incidental.
Next, they'll consider PPE to be a taxable benefit whereas it should be a tool required to do your job (hence a person should get a tax refund if they've bought some).
We have a free health care system in the UK. If your employer pays for additional private health care that is consider a perk, and taxed. The government hasn't specifically decided to tax COVID-19 tests. They just tax private health care perks. They would have needed to take specific action NOT to tax these tests.
That's a valid point. I have private healthcare from my employer and am taxed on it.
This seems like an oversight, as it does seem stupid to tax something so benefical to society.
Why would you want to tax individuals health care with a socialized system? I get you do it if you can but I'd think that you'd want to promote that since then they pay in to the system but take less out.
I agree, it does seem silly. On the other hand, employers give people perks, rather than higher pay, so they could just up their salary.
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Why would you want to tax individuals health care with a socialized system? I get you do it if you can but I'd think that you'd want to promote that since then they pay in to the system but take less out.
Why would you expect those in the UK with private health care insurance to take less out of the public health care system? Private health care in the UK has mostly been a way to queue jump into the public system, who then pick up the bulk of the bills.
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None of that surprises me and don't get me started on the BML movement, who've lost all credability with many people. If they really cared about anyone's life, they wouldn't have acted in such a wrecless manner. They're mostly a load of pathetic social justice warriors who are pissed off because they've not been allowed to socialise during lockdown and needed a release. I'm all of wiping out racism, but this is not the way to do it.
Agreed. Where were the protesters 1 year ago? 10 years ago? When John Pat was bashed by the Western Australian police and killed 37 years ago? All missing in action. Whilst BLM is an important issue, the BLM protesters here in Australia are way out of line. Most of them did not wear a mask and failed to distance themselves. They could not give a rats arse if they spread COVID-19 as they marched as self-proclaimed heroes for justice. In technical terms, they are classed as "First Class Wankers".
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None of that surprises me and don't get me started on the BML movement, who've lost all credability with many people. If they really cared about anyone's life, they wouldn't have acted in such a wrecless manner. They're mostly a load of pathetic social justice warriors who are pissed off because they've not been allowed to socialise during lockdown and needed a release. I'm all of wiping out racism, but this is not the way to do it.
I think that's part of it, but it also has the appearance of being largely an anti-capitalism and anti-authority movement. In my area much of what was going on felt just like the old Occupy movement that fizzled out several years ago. People capitalizing on a tragic event to get the masses on board with a movement that a lot of people otherwise wouldn't be on board with. It's far easier to drum up support when you can just call anyone who isn't a fanatical supporter a racist. Between the pandemic and other events there was a perfect storm that created a nearly ideal environment to try to cultivate a revolution. Like happened with the Occupy movement, I suspect it will get fragmented and fizzle out eventually. They start out with a noble goal but then it becomes chaotic and disorganized and more people try to piggyback their own pet agendas.
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Where were the protesters 1 year ago? 10 years ago?
More easily placated or ignored by the authorities. Fortunately, mobs don't go full nuclear each and every time but require stoking and momentum building.
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Where were the protesters 1 year ago? 10 years ago?
More easily placated or ignored by the authorities. Fortunately, mobs don't go full nuclear each and every time but require stoking and momentum building.
It requires an easily understandable injustice of some kind, like videos circulating of those retarded cops killing the suspect while arresting him.
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None of that surprises me and don't get me started on the BML movement, who've lost all credability with many people. If they really cared about anyone's life, they wouldn't have acted in such a wrecless manner. They're mostly a load of pathetic social justice warriors who are pissed off because they've not been allowed to socialise during lockdown and needed a release. I'm all of wiping out racism, but this is not the way to do it.
I think that's part of it, but it also has the appearance of being largely an anti-capitalism and anti-authority movement. In my area much of what was going on felt just like the old Occupy movement that fizzled out several years ago. People capitalizing on a tragic event to get the masses on board with a movement that a lot of people otherwise wouldn't be on board with. It's far easier to drum up support when you can just call anyone who isn't a fanatical supporter a racist. Between the pandemic and other events there was a perfect storm that created a nearly ideal environment to try to cultivate a revolution. Like happened with the Occupy movement, I suspect it will get fragmented and fizzle out eventually. They start out with a noble goal but then it becomes chaotic and disorganized and more people try to piggyback their own pet agendas.
We need more moderates to stand up and say, it's possible to dissagree with the many of the BLM's objectives and thier behaviour without being racist. Worryingly there seems to be a fair number of them who are extremists who hate white people. There are numerous videos of them harassing white people, getting them to apologise for being white. If they did that to me, I'd like to say, I'd tell them to bugger off, but in reality, I'd just ignore them, pretend I don't speak English, or something, to avoid being set upon by an angry mob.
The authorities need to clamp down on them for their criminal acts ranging from vandalism and theft, to breaking the rules on social distancing.
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None of that surprises me and don't get me started on the BML movement, who've lost all credability with many people. If they really cared about anyone's life, they wouldn't have acted in such a wrecless manner. They're mostly a load of pathetic social justice warriors who are pissed off because they've not been allowed to socialise during lockdown and needed a release. I'm all of wiping out racism, but this is not the way to do it.
I think that's part of it, but it also has the appearance of being largely an anti-capitalism and anti-authority movement. In my area much of what was going on felt just like the old Occupy movement that fizzled out several years ago. People capitalizing on a tragic event to get the masses on board with a movement that a lot of people otherwise wouldn't be on board with. It's far easier to drum up support when you can just call anyone who isn't a fanatical supporter a racist. Between the pandemic and other events there was a perfect storm that created a nearly ideal environment to try to cultivate a revolution. Like happened with the Occupy movement, I suspect it will get fragmented and fizzle out eventually. They start out with a noble goal but then it becomes chaotic and disorganized and more people try to piggyback their own pet agendas.
We need more moderates to stand up and say, it's possible to dissagree with the many of the BLM's objectives and thier behaviour without being racist. Worryingly there seems to be a fair number of them who are extremists who hate white people. There are numerous videos of them harassing white people, getting them to apologise for being white. If they did that to me, I'd like to say, I'd tell them to bugger off, but in reality, I'd just ignore them, pretend I don't speak English, or something, to avoid being set upon by an angry mob.
The authorities need to clamp down on them for their criminal acts ranging from vandalism and theft, to breaking the rules on social distancing.
What stirred it all up, was videos of obscene police brutality against a black person being widely circulated. You do get that, right? We wouldn't be having this discussion if that hadn't happened.
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None of that surprises me and don't get me started on the BML movement, who've lost all credability with many people. If they really cared about anyone's life, they wouldn't have acted in such a wrecless manner. They're mostly a load of pathetic social justice warriors who are pissed off because they've not been allowed to socialise during lockdown and needed a release. I'm all of wiping out racism, but this is not the way to do it.
I think that's part of it, but it also has the appearance of being largely an anti-capitalism and anti-authority movement. In my area much of what was going on felt just like the old Occupy movement that fizzled out several years ago. People capitalizing on a tragic event to get the masses on board with a movement that a lot of people otherwise wouldn't be on board with. It's far easier to drum up support when you can just call anyone who isn't a fanatical supporter a racist. Between the pandemic and other events there was a perfect storm that created a nearly ideal environment to try to cultivate a revolution. Like happened with the Occupy movement, I suspect it will get fragmented and fizzle out eventually. They start out with a noble goal but then it becomes chaotic and disorganized and more people try to piggyback their own pet agendas.
We need more moderates to stand up and say, it's possible to dissagree with the many of the BLM's objectives and thier behaviour without being racist. Worryingly there seems to be a fair number of them who are extremists who hate white people. There are numerous videos of them harassing white people, getting them to apologise for being white. If they did that to me, I'd like to say, I'd tell them to bugger off, but in reality, I'd just ignore them, pretend I don't speak English, or something, to avoid being set upon by an angry mob.
The authorities need to clamp down on them for their criminal acts ranging from vandalism and theft, to breaking the rules on social distancing.
What stirred it all up, was videos of obscene police brutality against a black person being widely circulated. You do get that, right? We wouldn't be having this discussion if that hadn't happened.
No. What stirred it up was millions almost trapped in their homes for months until they were grumpy and ready for trouble. Many of us were just wondering what spark would actually trigger social unrest, especially as we moved into summer, when most rioting occurs. The video showing police brutality was just the right spark at the right time. Many other gruesome videos have come and gone without more than a little grumbling in the press. If George Floyd hadn't been killed there would have been something else to trigger rioting. Bad things happen with enough regularity there's always another just around the corner.
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I definitely think the being locked up was a huge part. The other thing is this is one of the very few instances where BLM actually found an incident that was very clearly wrong. There are still some issues with it but he didn't have a gun, he didn't beat any cops... He was not actively endangering anyone the cops there just didn't seem to care and wanted him to be 100% complacent. He should have been too but if he was on drugs, and had his other issues I can see where the problems came from. Unlike most every other incident BLM rioted(no I can't use another word, there is ALWAYS violence in response) about though he wasn't going to hurt anyone and didn't even seem to have that intention. He sure as hell wasn't going to run away either.
You can see now virtually any police action is met with more protest or riots, more violence within the affected communities which is really awful. If the cops show up they'll be attacked or fired so they don't. The fact that BLM is an oxymoron doesn't help(they only care about blacks killed by police, most black lives they couldn't give a shit about). God help us(just a turn of phrase) this stuff is still going on if Donald Trump gets elected again... Or if Joe Biden is. We just need people to think logically for a minute relax and see what we can make happen and see if it does anything. However I think some of these potential "fixes" are bad like sending social workers to domestic incidents(the most unpredictable as they are VERY passionate incidents). Even if people do stop rioting and protesting and attacking vehicles I'm not sure how things get better at this point.
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A lot of things can be improved at relatively modest cost. For domestic incidents, send trained police AND social worker(s), together. Weed out bad cops from the force, incidents like we saw are unnecessary and should never occur with a modern professional police force in a democratic country.
What stirred it [the rioting] up was millions almost trapped in their homes for months until they were grumpy and ready for trouble. Many of us were just wondering what spark would actually trigger social unrest, especially as we moved into summer, when most rioting occurs. The video showing police brutality was just the right spark at the right time. Many other gruesome videos have come and gone without more than a little grumbling in the press. If George Floyd hadn't been killed there would have been something else to trigger rioting. Bad things happen with enough regularity there's always another just around the corner.
Are you saying it is OK to have a steady stream of injustices from an undisciplined and unprofessional police force as long as there are no riots?
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A lot of things can be improved at relatively modest cost. For domestic incidents, send trained police AND social worker(s), together. Weed out bad cops from the force, incidents like we saw are unnecessary and should never occur with a modern professional police force in a democratic country.
Many countries have massively reduced support for those with mental issues in recent decades, like this magically makes them go away. The result is that much of the homeless population of major cities are people with mental health issues, who end up as troublemakers through no fault of their own. Instead of trained mental health professionals dealing with them, the police end up dealing with them. Not only are the police not trained for this, it must piss them off. I'm sure most of the police who deal with these problems feel sorry for the people they are dealing with, but there isn't much they can do. The last thing these people need is social workers. They need proper health professionals. This isn't cheap, through. The whole reason proper services were defunded is it saved a lot.
Frequently when one of these brutal videos gets picked up by the media it turns out the key policeman in the video has a track record of brutal treatment of suspects, typically being an equal opportunity thug who has beaten up suspects of all races. There seems to be much more an issue of rogue violent police in the US than racist ones. Blame the city governments. They oversee the police, and if they have not addressed these long term problems they clearly don't care. Right now we see so many US mayors acting like they are pawns in the game.
What stirred it [the rioting] up was millions almost trapped in their homes for months until they were grumpy and ready for trouble. Many of us were just wondering what spark would actually trigger social unrest, especially as we moved into summer, when most rioting occurs. The video showing police brutality was just the right spark at the right time. Many other gruesome videos have come and gone without more than a little grumbling in the press. If George Floyd hadn't been killed there would have been something else to trigger rioting. Bad things happen with enough regularity there's always another just around the corner.
Are you saying it is OK to have a steady stream of injustices from an undisciplined and unprofessional police force as long as there are no riots?
What a stupid response.
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Weed out bad cops from the force, incidents like we saw are unnecessary
Easier said than done. Before world+dog carried live cameras 24/7, any problem would basically boil down to the cop's word against whoever, and since the cop is notionally completely trustworthy (else he wouldn't be a cop) and the other person likely a perp (otherwise he wouldn't be nicked) it's obvious who is likely to be believed. The cop probably has backup from his colleagues too.
Also bear in mind that not every put upon person is playing a straight bat. Give your average tea leaf half and inch and he'll take all eight. The reason they are criminals is because they have no compunction about breaking the rules, so you'd expect a lot of complaints about the police to be malicious and/or just trying it on because there's nothing to lose.
The big problem has been that genuine grievances just got lost in the noise of routine petty point scoring. The difference now is that when someone falls down the stairs we might get to see them being pushed or tripped, although there have been famous cases of such being caught on camera and nothing being done about it. However, those tended to be isolated incidents so easily passed off as just a bad apple thing, whereas currently we're seeing that there are far more of these apples than we imagined.
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Are you saying it is OK to have a steady stream of injustices from an undisciplined and unprofessional police force as long as there are no riots?
I don't see anything even remotely suggesting that in what he said.
His statement was a simple fact, bad things happen in the world on a regular basis because bad people exist, a few of those bad people are police officers, most are not. A few of the bad things involve the police, most do not. Acknowledging that something happens is not the same as saying that it's "ok" for bad things to happen. We should strive to minimize this sort of thing but it would be naive to suggest that it will ever be zero. It is fundamentally impossible to have a society in which there are no bad people. All we can do is continuously try to weed them out as they are caught.
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Are you saying it is OK to have a steady stream of injustices from an undisciplined and unprofessional police force as long as there are no riots?
I don't see anything even remotely suggesting that in what he said.
His statement was a simple fact, bad things happen in the world on a regular basis because bad people exist, a few of those bad people are police officers, most are not. A few of the bad things involve the police, most do not. Acknowledging that something happens is not the same as saying that it's "ok" for bad things to happen. We should strive to minimize this sort of thing but it would be naive to suggest that it will ever be zero. It is fundamentally impossible to have a society in which there are no bad people. All we can do is continuously try to weed them out as they are caught.
I guess I got caught up in this sentence, "The video showing police brutality was just the right spark at the right time. Many other gruesome videos have come and gone without more than a little grumbling in the press."
What he called a "spark" was actually an outrageous act of injustice carried out against a defenseless person, by agents of the state. One reason people riot is because they have lost faith in justice being done in cases like this. We have seen in the past how bad cops got let off the hook - it isn't a slam dunk that police brutality results in a bad outcome for the cops.
The fact that other acts of great injustice could also cause have caused rioting is beside the point.
Injustice begets more injustice, and lays the foundations for the next riot.
I don't see any evidence that would suggest riots would happen anyway, without these kinds of incidents.
Thankfully, it also works the other way round - the situation will respond well to quick and efficient prosecutions, with fair outcomes.
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Thankfully, it also works the other way round - the situation will respond well to quick and efficient prosecutions, with fair outcomes.
No it doesn't. Originally the outrage was he(the officer) wasn't arrested, then it was that the other officers weren't arrested, now it's that there are any police at all.
Same with the statues. They illegally pull down statues they don't like but start with confederates. Then they go to founding fathers, then even black abolitionists and they're targeting mount rushmore now. It literally is not ending and the only response we're seeing is more demands and more outrage.
Edit: This is not a political post(I didn't vote last cycle for either loser, and I won't this time either). This is giving more examples of the spreading COVID madness and continous outrage due to it.
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Same with the statues. They illegally pull down statues they don't like but start with confederates. Then they go to founding fathers, then even black abolitionists and they're targeting mount rushmore now. It literally is not ending and the only response we're seeing is more demands and more outrage.
WOW.
It's a Impact of Corona Virus on Work thread not a pathetic pandering to the Orange Fungus thread. Are you trying to get the thread closed to avoid reading the reality about how phenomenally incompetent and bizarre the administration has mishandled the greatest pandemic in 100 years?
Nobody cares about a bunch of ^%$ing statues - they are WAYYYYYY down on the list pal - no matter how much you desperately need to create a a deception that THEY are out to get US and are statues.
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Nobody cares about a bunch of ^%$ing statues - they are WAYYYYYY down on the list pal - no matter how much you desperately need to create a a deception that THEY are out to get US and are statues.
A lot of us care quite a bit about statues, even those of us who have long openly criticized the orange one. I'm personally worried because I abhor senseless vandalism and I wonder where it will end. Don't fall into the trap of believing there are only two camps and that you speak for everyone in one of them.
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Nobody cares about a bunch of ^%$ing statues - they are WAYYYYYY down on the list pal - no matter how much you desperately need to create a a deception that THEY are out to get US and are statues.
A lot of us care quite a bit about statues, even those of us who have long openly criticized the orange one. I'm personally worried because I abhor senseless vandalism and I wonder where it will end. Don't fall into the trap of believing there are only two camps and that you speak for everyone in one of them.
I speak for myself - ALWAYS. Don't presume to tell me what kind of trap I am going to fall into - while you are telling me how much you "AND A LOT OF US" care about statues - exactly whom are you speaking for with the "LOT OF US" - what a load of self-righteous sanctimonious BS You want to talk about statues - start a thread about statues.
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Thankfully, it also works the other way round - the situation will respond well to quick and efficient prosecutions, with fair outcomes.
No it doesn't. Originally the outrage was he(the officer) wasn't arrested, then it was that the other officers weren't arrested, now it's that there are any police at all.
Same with the statues. They illegally pull down statues they don't like but start with confederates. Then they go to founding fathers, then even black abolitionists and they're targeting mount rushmore now. It literally is not ending and the only response we're seeing is more demands and more outrage.
It took way too long to arrest the Keystone Cops in the first instance... they were only arrested after the city was on fire. Where's the sense in that?
Once this kind of thing is rolling, it can be very hard to put it back in the bottle, as we can see.
The "trick" is that justice has to be fair, otherwise it loses the support of the population, and - here we are.
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(https://i.imgur.com/PgYuniD_d.webp?maxwidth=728&fidelity=grand)
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I speak for myself - ALWAYS. Don't presume to tell me what kind of trap I am going to fall into - while you are telling me how much you "AND A LOT OF US" care about statues - exactly whom are you speaking for with the "LOT OF US" - what a load of self-righteous sanctimonious BS You want to talk about statues - start a thread about statues.
Wow, it seems that I've hit a nerve. :o
I don't particularly want to talk about statues, I was only responding to that other comment that seems to have really set you off. I had no idea that statues were such a hot button topic that would trigger somebody like that. You said right there "Nobody cares about a bunch of ^%$ing statues" which is objectively false, myself and many others do in fact care about statues, you were not speaking for yourself, you didn't say "I don't care about statues", you said "nobody cares about statues".
"Us" = people including myself who care about statues, not to imply that statues are the only thing we care about but I do think it is a stunning display of ignorance to tear down statues of abolitionists and union generals in the name of racial equality. I mean it sends a pretty strong message that this is just a bunch of clueless angry people indiscriminately vandalizing public property and it harms an otherwise noble cause rather than helping. "A lot", ie virtually everyone I associate with, mosf of whom are left of center.
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I speak for myself - ALWAYS. Don't presume to tell me what kind of trap I am going to fall into - while you are telling me how much you "AND A LOT OF US" care about statues - exactly whom are you speaking for with the "LOT OF US" - what a load of self-righteous sanctimonious BS You want to talk about statues - start a thread about statues.
Wow, it seems that I've hit a nerve. :o
I don't particularly want to talk about statues, I was only responding to that other comment that seems to have really set you off. I had no idea that statues were such a hot button topic that would trigger somebody like that. You said right there "Nobody cares about a bunch of ^%$ing statues" which is objectively false, myself and many others do in fact care about statues, you were not speaking for yourself, you didn't say "I don't care about statues", you said "nobody cares about statues".
"Us" = people including myself who care about statues, not to imply that statues are the only thing we care about but I do think it is a stunning display of ignorance to tear down statues of abolitionists and union generals in the name of racial equality. I mean it sends a pretty strong message that this is just a bunch of clueless angry people indiscriminately vandalizing public property and it harms an otherwise noble cause rather than helping. "A lot", ie virtually everyone I associate with, mosf of whom are left of center.
Yeah yeah, you hit a nerve, you really got me upset blah blah blah....you said this and I said that and you caught me doing exactly what I accused you of doing and I am left of center and squirt and puke. IT IS NOT A THREAD ABOUT STATUES but there you are talking about US and THEM and statues. I don't care if you are left of the moon. I don't even care about your position on statues. If I did, I would contribute to your thread on statues - please go make one and I will be happy not to contribute to it and that will make you happy. Enough.
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Does this have anything to do with "statutory rights", or is that something else? ::)
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IT IS NOT A THREAD ABOUT STATUES but there you are talking about US and THEM and statues.
It kind of is, because the statues thing is an indicator of problems that do (or will) affect us at work. The underlying problem is showing up in the other thread where pretty soon we won't be able to use the b***k word in even comments, never mind code or pin names. Statues is another manifestation of that.
Whether any of this is because of coronavirus is difficult to say. The suggestion earlier that it's happened because we have too much time on our hands along with cabin fever, not to mention decent weather (although you can't blame the virus for that one) may have legs.
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Listen I really have to apologize. I was just way out of line and I am truly sorry so let me go on record here as sincerely sorry to snap like that.
Yes, we need to talk about statues more and yes, the thread is certainly about statues - anybody can see that, I don't know what was wrong with me, but I have seen the statue.
Please share with me your passions about statues, stories about statues that may have fallen on your head when you were young, catching your parents in bed with statues, whatever it is, please know that I really want to hear about it because it is important and because I care - I feel your statue pain, your anxieties about statues, your despair over statues. Humanity is being corrupted by Automatonophobia. If I am elected, I promise that we will have more statues and they will be cleaned often. We will never let them take our statues! :) :) :) :)
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Nobody cares about a bunch of ^%$ing statues - they are WAYYYYYY down on the list pal - no matter how much you desperately need to create a a deception that THEY are out to get US and are statues.
A lot of us care quite a bit about statues, even those of us who have long openly criticized the orange one. I'm personally worried because I abhor senseless vandalism and I wonder where it will end. Don't fall into the trap of believing there are only two camps and that you speak for everyone in one of them.
IMHO you are both right. In the light of the Corona pandemic statues are the last thing we should be concerned about and people shouldn't go out and tear statues (or anything else) down.
Statues of people should also be put in the right perspective and that is often lost in history. A more recent example is the statue of Arthur 'Bomber' Harris. The English RAF commander who was in charge of large bombardments of German cities which caused a great number of civilian cassualties in WW2. Some people say those bombings where uncalled for. I had the chance to ask my grandfather's opinion. Since he witnessed the horrors of the war first hand while being a forced laborer in Berlin he had a good view on what was actually happening and why. His opinion: 'They should have dropped more bombs. Anyone claiming otherwise is a complete and utter moron.'
But this is getting wildly offtopic. I'm calling Godwin's law since we ended up with nazis >:D
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Please share with me your passions about statues, stories about statues...
Let me tell you about D&D then...
Realistically the outrage culture we're seeing right now, in any form it takes, is likely to be spurred on by COVID lockdowns, loneliness, depression, etc... They have nothing else to think about so it's all some people do. You start perceiving slights that aren't real, seeing racism in statues of black men, demanding people change their "racist" language so they don't spread racism like COVID. This will all filter back to peoples work if it hasn't already. I know Google, Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube employees are definitely going to change things with their work due to the spreading COVID madness. It could be unrelated but seeing these things wax and wane over the years repeatedly this time seems different and it's definitely more widespread.
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Realistically the outrage culture we're seeing right now, in any form it takes, is likely to be spurred on by COVID lockdowns, loneliness, depression, etc... They have nothing else to think about so it's all some people do. You start perceiving slights that aren't real, seeing racism in statues of black men, demanding people change their "racist" language so they don't spread racism like COVID. This will all filter back to peoples work if it hasn't already. I know Google, Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube employees are definitely going to change things with their work due to the spreading COVID madness. It could be unrelated but seeing these things wax and wane over the years repeatedly this time seems different and it's definitely more widespread.
This sums it up pretty well. My thought on the statues is a bit like my thought on a mysterious lump that shows up on my body somewhere or a soft spot in the wood structure of my house. I don't actually have any real attachment to most statues and such, I could live with a random benign lump and my house won't fall down due to a little soft spot. However random lumps are rarely benign, and a little soft spot is usually the tip of the iceberg on a larger onset of rot lurking below the surface. They are symptoms of much larger and deeper problems which will fester and get far worse left unchecked. Today someone is knocking down a statue over some perceived wrong the person it honors once committed, tomorrow they are torching your house or slaughtering your dog over something your wife's cousin's friend wrote in an essay back in 4th grade. Knocking down the statue doesn't solve anything, whatever problem they are dealing with is still there so what are they going to do next? People have a tendency to believe that if something didn't work they just need to try harder. On top of all that, covid is unlikely to be going away any time soon so this is all likely to keep getting worse unless people put a stop to it now. Going out and protesting or rioting in large groups is quite literally going to both kill large numbers of people and increase the need for lockdowns and other restrictions, as well as creating further economic setbacks that will increase and prolong unemployment, it's all creating a positive feedback loop.
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IT IS NOT A THREAD ABOUT STATUES but there you are talking about US and THEM and statues.
This is a thread about the impacts of covid on working from home, please stick to that.
I don't want to have to lock this or start deleting posts.
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It seems true that one impact of COVID and working from home is that it can be hard to avoid going crazy.
Everyone probably has different coping mechanisms but I have found physical exercise and eating healthily to be essential for remaining sane during lockdown. I've never been fitter, and it is ridiculous that it took a pandemic to get me to figure this out, but there you go...
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Statues of people should also be put in the right perspective and that is often lost in history. A more recent example is the statue of Arthur 'Bomber' Harris. The English RAF commander who was in charge of large bombardments of German cities which caused a great number of civilian cassualties in WW2. Some people say those bombings where uncalled for. I had the chance to ask my grandfather's opinion. Since he witnessed the horrors of the war first hand while being a forced laborer in Berlin he had a good view on what was actually happening and why. His opinion: 'They should have dropped more bombs. Anyone claiming otherwise is a complete and utter moron.'
Bomber Harris is a perplexing example. At the time most people in the know either thought his bombing program was immoral or was an ineffective use of resources. Some thought both. People like Winston Churchill were deeply troubled by what was going on, so even those in ultimate control were not proponents of the program. Still, nothing changed. This lesson of inaction in the face of a clearly screwed up program should have resonance right now.
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The supply chain of major home appliances seems to be affected by the current situation. My neighbor had her old refrigerator fail a couple weeks ago, and when she went down to buy a new one at Home Depot nothing of interest was in stock and the floor models weren't for sale. She ordered one and it took 10 days to arrive, which happened yesterday.
She didn't lose much food...I had room for her frozen stuff in my chest freezer, and most of her refrigerator stuff was drinks and condiments that didn't actually require refrigeration.
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The supply chain of major home appliances seems to be affected by the current situation. My neighbor had her old refrigerator fail a couple weeks ago, and when she went down to buy a new one at Home Depot nothing of interest was in stock and the floor models weren't for sale. She ordered one and it took 10 days to arrive, which happened yesterday.
She didn't lose much food...I had room for her frozen stuff in my chest freezer, and most of her refrigerator stuff was drinks and condiments that didn't actually require refrigeration.
Did she look into having the old one fixed? I've fixed several refrigerators for people, most recently my mom. The most common problem by far that I've seen cause it to stop cooling is a failed PTC starter on the compressor. It's a ~$20-$40 part that takes 5 minutes to install and you're back in business. I've never understood why so many people are so quick to just write off a major appliance over a simple fault.
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I've never understood why so many people are so quick to just write off a major appliance over a simple fault.
Cost. You pay £50 for the guy to call out, take it apart and go, "Hmm, dodgy mate, gonna cost ya gov!"
They will then tell you the part you need is £50 and it will another £50 to fit ... and he can't get the part for at least a week.
... or you could buy a whole new fridge for £200.
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Cost. You pay £50 for the guy to call out, take it apart and go, "Hmm, dodgy mate, gonna cost ya gov!"
They will then tell you the part you need is £50 and it will another £50 to fit ... and he can't get the part for at least a week.
... or you could buy a whole new fridge for £200.
Any consumer who knows how to use a screwdriver can pop a new PTC in there and see if that gets it going, it just plugs onto the compressor and it's a cheap enough part that it's worth trying. I'm not saying people should try replacing parts of the hermetic system or doing major surgery but I've seen an awful lot of things thrown out over trivial problems that anyone capable of tying their own shoes ought to be able to fix with a little advice. Simple home repairs just seems like a basic life skill that everyone should have at least a little bit of.
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If it's over 6 years old just replace it. If it's not, at least here, there's a 6 year fit for purpose law under CRA 2015 which is worth exercising. I got a full unconditional refund from Zanussi when their dryer wore through a bearing after 3 years when I quoted that after they sent me a callout invoice. And then there's the old chargeback on the credit card if you bought it on that. Retailers and manufacturers are starting to take that seriously now.
Repair guy is a dead job and it should be. When you pay for something you should be paying for something that isn't a lemon regardless of the price point and that means service, support and repairs for a reasonable lifetime of the device.
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I'd like to see repair guy as a job come back. IMO appliances should cost at least 3-4 times what they do, they should be built to last and built to be repaired. My fridge is 18 years old and going strong, the fridge at our cabin was made in 1972 and it's still doing great too. My washer, dryer and dishwasher are all at least 15 years old, the washer and dryer were broken when I got them and I fixed them. The disposable society is crazy and the cost of products like this does not reflect their total cost to the environment.
People used to keep all this stuff much longer, when I was growing up it was not uncommon to see 15-20 year old white goods and TV sets and such in active use.
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Do you test that PTC with a meter? How you determine it has gone bad?
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I'd like to see repair guy as a job come back. IMO appliances should cost at least 3-4 times what they do, they should be built to last and built to be repaired. My fridge is 18 years old and going strong, the fridge at our cabin was made in 1972 and it's still doing great too. My washer, dryer and dishwasher are all at least 15 years old, the washer and dryer were broken when I got them and I fixed them. The disposable society is crazy and the cost of products like this does not reflect their total cost to the environment.
People used to keep all this stuff much longer, when I was growing up it was not uncommon to see 15-20 year old white goods and TV sets and such in active use.
I’m not sure I agree. If you look at the supply chain required for managing spares for everything it had a larger environmental and trash output than scrapping the devices and introducing recycling legislation and restricting hazardous substances and difficult to recycle parts. I had a job once of running a van clearing out a warehouse of parts for pumps which were replaced by recyclable units. 225 metric tons of toxic landfill came out of that building. That’s the legacy of the 40s-80s thinking.
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We all could do more for the environnment by buying less and fixing more than a LOT of other things which make the news frequently.
James, I am totally with you on this issue.
Did she look into having the old one fixed? I've fixed several refrigerators for people, most recently my mom. The most common problem by far that I've seen cause it to stop cooling is a failed PTC starter on the compressor. It's a ~$20-$40 part that takes 5 minutes to install and you're back in business. I've never understood why so many people are so quick to just write off a major appliance over a simple fault.
Many people are afraid that jobs will go away if we stop buying as much useless junk. Well, guess what, jobw will go away in large numbers in the coming years NOMATTER WHAT WE DO.
Sothe lext time somebody says "do this or we'll lose so many jobs, think long and hard and deep about what theyre saying. And keep in mind that we'll lose the jobs anyway. Many jobs are literally gone already, people just dont know it. These are jobs that we already know how to automate and we lose nothing because of it.
Except the jobs. We need to start discussing how we deal with the economics of a work sparse future.
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I doubt the future will be "work sparse", but it will very likely be "menial task sparse".
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People used to keep all this stuff much longer, when I was growing up it was not uncommon to see 15-20 year old white goods and TV sets and such in active use.
How old is your phone? Still doing OK on that 8086-based PC browsing t'web?
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On German TV there was a report that in cities like Frankfurt companies are downsizing their office areas. They are trying to rent smaller buildings and move. In another report they showed a bank manager who said: "Right now we have 60 000 people working for us at home. Nobody could have imagined that will work, but there we are." As far as i understand, Covid19 may have a persistent impact simplifying the life of many. Of course some people will have difficulties to adapt, so it will take time. My hope would be that individual traffic as well as CO2 emissions will stay low. And yes, spending time to fix things instead of waiting in a traffic jam is an improvement.
Regards, Dieter
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I'd like to see repair guy as a job come back. IMO appliances should cost at least 3-4 times what they do, they should be built to last and built to be repaired.
But you are not considering the savings by replacing an old appliance earlier. Newer appliances are more energy efficient so in the end you likely end up with a device which costs less to use. Which in turn means it needs less energy. In the end you pay for energy costs to produce something.
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I'd like to see repair guy as a job come back. IMO appliances should cost at least 3-4 times what they do, they should be built to last and built to be repaired. My fridge is 18 years old and going strong, the fridge at our cabin was made in 1972 and it's still doing great too. My washer, dryer and dishwasher are all at least 15 years old, the washer and dryer were broken when I got them and I fixed them. The disposable society is crazy and the cost of products like this does not reflect their total cost to the environment.
I like things to be built like Clive's washing machine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUHuFeFfCdA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUHuFeFfCdA)
That is, individual modules that are easily serviceable. I understand, things go wrong. Make the parts available, and not too difficult to replace, and an appliance can be kept running for decades.
The charging port on my VW Golf GTE has started to play up. For some godforsaken reason VW integrated the charging port lock into the main wiring harness, whereas BMW put it on a separate connector. So to replace that to "Dealer Standard" would be a new wiring harness plus labour, because it is "HV system" it will likely cost more than £600 for what is a £10 actuator. I'm gonna fix it myself somehow, because I refuse to bow down to that crap.
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But you are not considering the savings by replacing an old appliance earlier. Newer appliances are more energy efficient so in the end you likely end up with a device which costs less to use. Which in turn means it needs less energy. In the end you pay for energy costs to produce something.
Got data to back that up?
Refrigerators had a very significant efficiency boost sometime around 30-40 years ago due to new insulation technology. Washing machine efficiency increased when the front loading machines became popular. These significant bumps are rare though, things like clothes dryers from a few years ago are virtually indistinguishable inside from clothes dryers made 50 years ago. Replacing a 30 year old appliance with a modern one may result in a significant efficiency boost, but replacing one that is 10 years old likely won't, unless it happens to cross one of those occasional breakthroughs where efficiency is bumped up. The "upgrading now will save you money" is largely a lie pushed by salespeople, if you look at the actual energy efficiency ratings and compare it to the one from the appliance you're replacing you'll likely find it to be underwhelming.
Given the total cost of running my refrigerator (I've measured the consumption over several days with a kill a watt) even if I upgraded to a new one that consumed zero energy it would take around 5 years to pay for itself. In reality a new refrigerator is going to consume much more than zero energy, a more realistic number is perhaps a 20% reduction which puts the break even time well beyond a decade. That's completely ignoring the environmental cost of transporting and scrapping the old fridge, extracting and refining the materials to build a new one and then transporting that.
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The "upgrading now will save you money" is largely a lie pushed by salespeople,
or bureaucrats who limit the power of devices to "save the planet" but fail to mention half the power takes double the time,so energy used is still the same
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These significant bumps are rare though, things like clothes dryers from a few years ago are virtually indistinguishable inside from clothes dryers made 50 years ago.
I don't think heat pump dryers existed 50 years ago.
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I don't think heat pump dryers existed 50 years ago.
Yes and no. Dedicated heat pump dryers are not that old, but many people have been drying clothes with heat pump based dehumidifers since they were first introduced. There are some pretty old dehumidifiers with steerable vents specifically for drying clothes.
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I don't think heat pump dryers existed 50 years ago.
Yes and no. Dedicated heat pump dryers are not that old, but many people have been drying clothes with heat pump based dehumidifers since they were first introduced. There are some pretty old dehumidifiers with steerable vents specifically for drying clothes.
I used to do this when I lived in a flat. I used my mobile air-con unit. I pointed the warm exhaust at the clothing rack and allowed the air-con unit keep the humidity under control.
When I forgot to wash my favourite jeans for a night out, I was able to wash them in 30 minutes and by stuffing the exhaust hose up the jeans directly they were dried in 20 minutes.
EDIT: On white goods longevity. There have been changes proposed by the industry recently (last few years). Previously they were manufacturing goods with a 10 year warranty and building things to last that long or be repaired to last that long.. or longer.
However the industry are claiming that as people are tending more often now to changing things around in their kitchens, like SWMBO wants silver fronts or black fronts for whatever reason. They are opting to build them cheaper and only give them a 5 year warranty and virtually no options to repair them.
So instead of a washing machine that costs £350 and lasts 10 years with repair options and part available, you can now pick one up for £180 that lasts 5 years and cannot be repaired... or is certainly not economical to repair. They are obviously receiving flak for this, rightfully so.
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You blokes have been warned... this thread is about to be LOCKED, after devolving into a rambling mess not related to the topic. LOCKING COMMENCING - 10...9...8...7...
Speaking of which many Melburnians are now in lock down, working from home for at least another six weeks, after the second wave has started. Those whinging, whining and moaning we are in lock down again should have a damn good look at themselves in the mirror because they are part of the problem for not socially distancing or wearing masks in public.
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I'm just waiting for the second wave in the UK. It's not gone away.
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People used to keep all this stuff much longer, when I was growing up it was not uncommon to see 15-20 year old white goods and TV sets and such in active use.
How old is your phone? Still doing OK on that 8086-based PC browsing t'web?
No, but at home I use an Intel dueo of 2007 vintage, for browsing the web. Imagine using a 13 year old machine to browse the web, back in 2007. It's no longer necessary to upgrade every three years, like it was in the 1990s/2000s.
I'm just waiting for the second wave in the UK. It's not gone away.
I expect that will happen during the run up to Christmas.
Interestingly many governments will be ramping flu vaccinations this year, as flu+COVID-19 = really bad disease, but there's some evidence to suggest having a flu jab may increase the risk of getting more severe COVID-19. I don't have the research links handy, but will post them later and edit this post, if necessary.
EDIT Research papers:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3404712/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3404712/)
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932/rr-15 (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932/rr-15)
https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m810/rr-0 (https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m810/rr-0)
Nothing definitive, but more research is required, before flu vaccination is rolled out to everyone.
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Here's a thing for our UK members and others. I learned today of a family friend who was hospitalised with Covid-like symptoms in mid-December last year. He lives and works in Liverpool, and recently tested positive for Corana virus antibodies. So did he have Covid19 before xmas 2019? No-one is willing to say because this would kind of blow a hole in the official timeline. Suffice to say, when he originally went to his doctor with breathing problems, he was given antibiotics (sic). A few days later he was in the ICU. He made a full recovery, but is rightly sceptical of his 'pneumonia' diagnosis.
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Yeah we lost a huge number of staff at the start of Jan to a similarly defined mystery illness. Everyone recovered.
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Yeah we lost a huge number of staff at the start of Jan to a similarly defined mystery illness. Everyone recovered.
There now seems to be an overwhelming dataset of anecdotal evidence to suggest that in the UK in December 2019, a Covid19-like pathogen was established and circulating widely. Any inquiry would have to consider this but, this as a conclusion might suggest certain medical agencies and goverment departments were asleep on watch. Allegedly.
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What is troubling me right now is "They think it's all over". The UK is dropping quarantine for travellers, relaxing lock down even more. Northern Ireland had it under control, but they too are relaxing traveller quarantine.
However globally the virus is accelerating not dropping. It will not end well.
We went into lock down when there was 20k new cases per day. Now there are 200k and we open the borders and tell people to come on in and mix, go to the pub have parties.
(https://i.imgur.com/MRseUk9.png)
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What is troubling me right now is "They think it's all over". The UK is dropping quarantine for travellers, relaxing lock down even more. Northern Ireland had it under control, but they too are relaxing traveller quarantine.
However globally the virus is accelerating not dropping. It will not end well.
We went into lock down when there was 20k new cases per day. Now there are 200k and we open the borders and tell people to come on in and mix, go to the pub have parties.
I think the policy is to maximise the economic damage with a lock down, and then maximise the number of elderly cleared out of care homes to reduce the bills and cover the cost of the economic damage.
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I think the policy is to maximise the economic damage with a lock down, and then maximise the number of elderly cleared out of care homes to reduce the bills and cover the cost of the economic damage.
The banks are not suffering economic damage a lot of them are reporting extremely high profits this quarter.
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I think the policy is to maximise the economic damage with a lock down, and then maximise the number of elderly cleared out of care homes to reduce the bills and cover the cost of the economic damage.
The banks are not suffering economic damage a lot of them are reporting extremely high profits this quarter.
The banks are an exception - aren't they usually? They had a government mandated scheme to make extra profits during the shutdown, squeezing businesses on survival loans.
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I think the policy is to maximise the economic damage with a lock down, and then maximise the number of elderly cleared out of care homes to reduce the bills and cover the cost of the economic damage.
The banks are not suffering economic damage a lot of them are reporting extremely high profits this quarter.
The banks are an exception - aren't they usually? They had a government mandated scheme to make extra profits during the shutdown, squeezing businesses on survival loans.
It's not that. Unrest causes market instability. Market instability makes traders profit. Traders trade through and with investment banks. It's basically vulture capitalism.
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What is troubling me right now is "They think it's all over". The UK is dropping quarantine for travellers, relaxing lock down even more. Northern Ireland had it under control, but they too are relaxing traveller quarantine.
However globally the virus is accelerating not dropping. It will not end well.
We went into lock down when there was 20k new cases per day. Now there are 200k and we open the borders and tell people to come on in and mix, go to the pub have parties.
I think the policy is to maximise the economic damage with a lock down, and then maximise the number of elderly cleared out of care homes to reduce the bills and cover the cost of the economic damage.
Consider also that any younger person they manage to off is one less elderly person to care for in the future - bonus! :-DD
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Here's a thing for our UK members and others. I learned today of a family friend who was hospitalised with Covid-like symptoms in mid-December last year. He lives and works in Liverpool, and recently tested positive for Corana virus antibodies. So did he have Covid19 before xmas 2019? No-one is willing to say because this would kind of blow a hole in the official timeline. Suffice to say, when he originally went to his doctor with breathing problems, he was given antibiotics (sic). A few days later he was in the ICU. He made a full recovery, but is rightly sceptical of his 'pneumonia' diagnosis.
Yes, there is plenty of evidence to suggest it arrived in the UK well before the official timeline state. It's true, the UK authoraties have made numerous blunders, but I wouldn't blame them for missing the early cases, as many of the symptoms are simular to other diseases, especially flu.
Pneumonia just means inflammation of the lungs. It can be caused by many things: bacteria, fungi, inhaling chemicals, as well as viruses such as flu and COVID-19.
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Pneumonia just means inflammation of the lungs. It can be caused by many things: bacteria, fungi, inhaling chemicals, as well as viruses such as flu and COVID-19.
And one of the most common "death by natural causes" in care homes. When old people get a bacterial or viral lung infection their immune system can't cope, antibiotics/virals might not work, at that stage they usually get the morphine syringe driver and the family summoned.
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I think the policy is to maximise the economic damage with a lock down, and then maximise the number of elderly cleared out of care homes to reduce the bills and cover the cost of the economic damage.
Consider also that any younger person they manage to off is one less elderly person to care for in the future - bonus! :-DD
Its no use losing them while you can still get some work and taxes out of them. You need to get rid of them as they turn from asset to burden.
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Ah care homes. Like a cruise, as deadly as a cruise but crap scenery and the destination is a hole in the ground.
The whole concept is broken.
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Ah care homes. Like a cruise, as deadly as a cruise but crap scenery and the destination is a hole in the ground.
The whole concept is broken.
The care homes I've been in feel like the zombie apocalypse is upon us.
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The whole concept is broken.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USADM5Gk9Gs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USADM5Gk9Gs)
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It all made sense... Until Box. Funniest line in the whole movie. First time I saw it I laughed for at least 10 minutes.
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Ah care homes. Like a cruise, as deadly as a cruise but crap scenery and the destination is a hole in the ground.
The whole concept is broken.
What would be a better (workable) solution?
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What is troubling me right now is "They think it's all over". The UK is dropping quarantine for travellers, relaxing lock down even more. Northern Ireland had it under control, but they too are relaxing traveller quarantine.
However globally the virus is accelerating not dropping. It will not end well.
We went into lock down when there was 20k new cases per day. Now there are 200k and we open the borders and tell people to come on in and mix, go to the pub have parties.
I wouldn't say that most people here feel that it's all over.
On the surface, it may seem as though the UK is going back to normal, but look a little deeper and it's not the case. Pubs and restaurants are only allowed to open, if they meet strict criteria, quarantine is only relaxed for those travelling from countries with low COVID-19 figures and gatherings of more than 30 people are still against the law.
It can be argued that the drastic lockdowns seen in most of the world were overkill. Sweden came under a lot of criticism for not implementing a full lockdown, as most other countries did, but it's not true they did nothing. Secondary schools were closed, public gatherings limited to less than 50 and people were advised against non-essential travel. Although lots of the criticism aimed at Sweden was valid, mainly the lack of protection of the elderly, they did flatten the curve. Now it seems as though many other European countries, such as the UK have moved in a similar direction to Sweden by opening up most of the economy, whilst maintaining some social distancing.
Unfortunately it's too early to say who was right and who was wrong. We'll only know that at the end of the pandemic.
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Secondary schools were closed
Over-16s only, so basically those about to leave or heading into further education. Below 16 they were all open.
they did flatten the curve
Highest per capita death rate in Europe. Worse than ours, even!
Source (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376)
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Secondary schools were closed
Over-16s only, so basically those about to leave or heading into further education. Below 16 they were all open.
they did flatten the curve
Highest per capita death rate in Europe. Worse than ours, even!
Source (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376)
Yes, I've read that article before. Like in the UK, many of the deaths were in care homes and could have easily been prevented. The UK had many excess deaths due to cancelled appointments and people scared of going to hospital. I don't know if that was the case in Sweden.
My expectation is by the end of the summer, the UK's social distancing policies will be similar to Sweden's. Whether or not we should have just implemented the measures we currently have, from day one, rather than going for a full lockdown is an interesting question. One thing to note is we've not yet had a massive second wave, since the easing of the lockdown, so does this mean that it was unnecessary to begin with?
It's still too early to say, whether Sweden did right, or wrong. We're still nearer to the start, than the end of the pandemic. I remain open minded about whether the lockdowns were right or wrong: I don't have enough information to make an informed opinion.
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Secondary schools were closed
Over-16s only, so basically those about to leave or heading into further education. Below 16 they were all open.
they did flatten the curve
Highest per capita death rate in Europe. Worse than ours, even!
Source (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376)
Yes, I've read that article before. Like in the UK, many of the deaths were in care homes and could have easily been prevented. The UK had many excess deaths due to cancelled appointments and people scared of going to hospital. I don't know if that was the case in Sweden.
My expectation is by the end of the summer, the UK's social distancing policies will be similar to Sweden's. Whether or not we should have just implemented the measures we currently have, from day one, rather than going for a full lockdown is an interesting question. One thing to note is we've not yet had a massive second wave, since the easing of the lockdown, so does this mean that it was unnecessary to begin with?
It's still too early to say, whether Sweden did right, or wrong. We're still nearer to the start, than the end of the pandemic. I remain open minded about whether the lockdowns were right or wrong: I don't have enough information to make an informed opinion.
You'll never be a good populist, if you keep talking like that! :D
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it's too early to say who was right and who was wrong
Thats simple to answer,regardless of any outcome,boris/donald/insert leader of choice was right everybody else was wrong
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Whether or not we should have just implemented the measures we currently have, from day one, rather than going for a full lockdown is an interesting question.
The technical answer would probably be 'no'. But we are dealing with actual people, many of whom are bloody-minded just for the sake of it, and some just plain bonkers. It would take something like a complete lockdown to impress on them that this isn't a game. So the practical answer would probably be 'yes'.
A more pertinent question might be what it would take to convince people to act reasonably in order that a full lockdown wasn't necessary. (Or, at least, most people - the ones that burn down 3G towers because covid is caused by 5G are beyond reason.)
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Secondary schools were closed
Over-16s only, so basically those about to leave or heading into further education. Below 16 they were all open.
they did flatten the curve
Highest per capita death rate in Europe. Worse than ours, even!
Source (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2376)
Yes, I've read that article before. Like in the UK, many of the deaths were in care homes and could have easily been prevented. The UK had many excess deaths due to cancelled appointments and people scared of going to hospital. I don't know if that was the case in Sweden.
My expectation is by the end of the summer, the UK's social distancing policies will be similar to Sweden's. Whether or not we should have just implemented the measures we currently have, from day one, rather than going for a full lockdown is an interesting question. One thing to note is we've not yet had a massive second wave, since the easing of the lockdown, so does this mean that it was unnecessary to begin with?
It's still too early to say, whether Sweden did right, or wrong. We're still nearer to the start, than the end of the pandemic. I remain open minded about whether the lockdowns were right or wrong: I don't have enough information to make an informed opinion.
You'll never be a good populist, if you keep talking like that! :D
That's good, because I don't want to be one.
I've looked at all of the extremist points on COVID-19: ranging from "Blah, it's just the flu, no excuse for the Marxists to copy China's lockdown!", to "Hell we all need to shelter in place, because the world could end!", but I listen to virologists, epidemiologists, doctors, nurses more.
Obviously the kind of lockdown we've had in many countries is unsustainable. It was an emergency measure to stop the hospitals becoming overwhelmed. Unfortunately it's taken it's toll on the economy and the mental health of many, such as myself. A couple of months ago, just after I went back to work, I went through a period of extreme emotional instability, even for me (I do have a bit of a reputation for being irritable and have suffered from anxiety before). I had blazing rows with a couple of my colleagues and once broke down in tears at my desk. Fortunately I got better, otherwise I would have been sent home sick. One of my colleagues who I reached out to, suggested I take some time off, but didn't want to, as I found being off work more depression.
Ultimately we need to adapt to this virus and live with it, without it getting out of control, or closing down half the economy. We need sustainable social distancing, contact tracing and the capacity to boost intensive care capacity, in case of any flare ups.
Whether or not we should have just implemented the measures we currently have, from day one, rather than going for a full lockdown is an interesting question.
The technical answer would probably be 'no'. But we are dealing with actual people, many of whom are bloody-minded just for the sake of it, and some just plain bonkers. It would take something like a complete lockdown to impress on them that this isn't a game. So the practical answer would probably be 'yes'.
A more pertinent question might be what it would take to convince people to act reasonably in order that a full lockdown wasn't necessary. (Or, at least, most people - the ones that burn down 3G towers because covid is caused by 5G are beyond reason.)
Perhaps, but again we don't know. Cultures vary from one country to another, but that doesn't seem to be the case in Sweden, where most people followed the advice.
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Sweden has one of the highest death rates per capita in Europe. I think it will take time until everybody knows somebody who died or remained with severe health problems after infection. That's one of the failures of the media: Counting the dead. Also in a war there are a hundred times more people who return with severe damages or psychological problems and who cannot continue their previous life.
Everybody somewhat awake will try to avoid infection until there will be vaccines. Hope that happens later this year.
Regards, Dieter
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Sweden has one of the highest death rates per capita in Europe. I think it will take time until everybody knows somebody who died or remained with severe health problems after infection. That's one of the failures of the media: Counting the dead. Also in a war there are a hundred times more people who return with severe damages or psychological problems and who cannot continue their previous life.
Everybody somewhat awake will try to avoid infection until there will be vaccines. Hope that happens later this year.
Regards, Dieter
Yes, that's true and is why excess deaths is probably a better measure, but you're right it doesn't account for long term health problems due to COVID-19.
Looking at the numbers of dead at this point in the pandemic is pretty meaningless. We don't know how many people will die in other countries in the near future due to COVID-19. Have the lockdown measures actually saved any lives, or just postponed deaths by a few months? The answer to this question will depend on whether a safe and effective vaccine is developed or not. If we never have a vaccine, then Sweden's approach might be more sensible, since herd immunity will gradually develop, even though that might not have been the goal. The countries who had big lockdowns will still have a large number of people who are not immune, so what will they do then? Impose lockdowns every time there's a flare up? That will prove unsustainable. The lockdown approach only works, if there's a hope of eradicating the virus, or a vaccine being developed.
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Totally agree on the body count being irrelevant. It's simply about nations desperately trying to look less bad than other ones rather than any actual meaningful statistics.
I suspect the politicians are running scared and that's why we're hearing a lot about it.
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Totally agree on the body count being irrelevant. It's simply about nations desperately trying to look less bad than other ones rather than any actual meaningful statistics.
I suspect the politicians are running scared and that's why we're hearing a lot about it.
We'll only know when the pandemic is over, which will be when we either have herd immunity, be it naturally, or due to a vaccine, or a cheap marvellous new treatment which stops the virus doing any harm. Then, I think the best metric will be number of socioeconomic-disability adjusted, human life-years lost, rather than the number of lives, which will apply more weight to younger lives lost, not just to COVID, but because they didn't get treated for other illnesses, due to lockdowns, or care capacity being filled by COVID-19 patients.
At the moment we need to edge towards something resembling the Swedish model of sustainable social distancing and contact tracing, to keep the number of cases manageable levels. If we have good enough contact tracing and do enough testing, perhaps even mandate it for workplaces where there's a high risk of the virus spreading, such as care homes, hospitals and meat processing plants, then any quarantines can be very small and localised.
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Indeed. Unfortunately I suspect that entire process will be immediately broken by the sheer number of stupids out there :palm:
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when we either have herd immunity, be it naturally, or due to a vaccine
There is a suggestion neither will happen (at least, usefully):
immunity to covid 19 could be lost in months uk study suggests (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests)
But, so what - it'll be just like flu or a cold. Except that dying may not be the biggest problem:
as covid 19 persists around the world death is not the only outcome to fear (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jul/13/as-covid-19-persists-around-the-world-death-is-not-the-only-outcome-to-fear)
In a war, the most effective weapon is not the one that kills your opponents but the one that maims them and ties up your opponents resources.
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The technical answer would probably be 'no'. But we are dealing with actual people, many of whom are bloody-minded just for the sake of it, and some just plain bonkers. It would take something like a complete lockdown to impress on them that this isn't a game. So the practical answer would probably be 'yes'.
Yea, the UK tied that. People went, "Meh" and ignored it. So they increased the restrictions like saying, "No we are serious!" and people went "Meh", and trotted off to the beach in their 1000s. So the government went, right then, stay in you fucking homes and the police can enforce it!
Then people went.. "Why didn't you do this earlier?"
You can't fix stupid.
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as covid 19 persists around the world death is not the only outcome to fear (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jul/13/as-covid-19-persists-around-the-world-death-is-not-the-only-outcome-to-fear)
It's a bit hand wavy, "We just don't know", but it could, or it might and people are saying and my brother's friends uncle said....
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as covid 19 persists around the world death is not the only outcome to fear (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jul/13/as-covid-19-persists-around-the-world-death-is-not-the-only-outcome-to-fear)
It's a bit hand wavy, "We just don't know", but it could, or it might and people are saying and my brother's friends uncle said....
They say that you shouldn't leave the house if you wanna be safe. But statically, I am more likely to do myself a mischief at home. Especially when ladders are involved. And tree pruners.
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Yeah stay at home, very good, but most people don't get the pay if they stay at home. Private businesses go bankrupt without customers, so except for the usual public tit suckers that live in a parallel reality, that isn't a viable solution.
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when we either have herd immunity, be it naturally, or due to a vaccine
There is a suggestion neither will happen (at least, usefully):
immunity to covid 19 could be lost in months uk study suggests (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests)
But, so what - it'll be just like flu or a cold. Except that dying may not be the biggest problem:
as covid 19 persists around the world death is not the only outcome to fear (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jul/13/as-covid-19-persists-around-the-world-death-is-not-the-only-outcome-to-fear)
In a war, the most effective weapon is not the one that kills your opponents but the one that maims them and ties up your opponents resources.
Confirmed
The Hospitalet(Barcelona) rest home already accumulates 10 positives, five of them reinfected.
https://www.elnacional.cat/es/salud/residencia-hospitalet-acumula-10-positivos-cinco-reinfectados_521841_102.html (https://www.elnacional.cat/es/salud/residencia-hospitalet-acumula-10-positivos-cinco-reinfectados_521841_102.html)
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when we either have herd immunity, be it naturally, or due to a vaccine
There is a suggestion neither will happen (at least, usefully):
immunity to covid 19 could be lost in months uk study suggests (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests)
But, so what - it'll be just like flu or a cold. Except that dying may not be the biggest problem:
as covid 19 persists around the world death is not the only outcome to fear (https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jul/13/as-covid-19-persists-around-the-world-death-is-not-the-only-outcome-to-fear)
In a war, the most effective weapon is not the one that kills your opponents but the one that maims them and ties up your opponents resources.
It's true the number of antibodies fall drastically after recovery, but we don't how many antibodies are required for immunity? I'm not an immunologist, but I do believe the immune system does have some sort of memory and will produce antibodies much more quickly, if it encounters the same antigen again, so the same level of disease is unlikely next time.
Immunity will decline over time, but at the moment, it's commonly believed it will last for at least six months. I'd be very surprised if it wanes much sooner and if people who've previously had severe COVID-19 get reinfected, it's anywhere near as bad as it was the first time. Of course this is a new disease, so I could be wrong. This is a coronavirus, which is related to the common cold and there is no vaccine for that, although that could be that colds kill only kill people who are already very immunocompromised.
Confirmed
The Hospitalet(Barcelona) rest home already accumulates 10 positives, five of them reinfected.
https://www.elnacional.cat/es/salud/residencia-hospitalet-acumula-10-positivos-cinco-reinfectados_521841_102.html (https://www.elnacional.cat/es/salud/residencia-hospitalet-acumula-10-positivos-cinco-reinfectados_521841_102.html)
I can't read Spanish.
These is the first cases of reinfection I've heard of, so I question their validity.
Are these genuine reinfections, or lingering dead virus particles which have been picked up by the test? I've heard plenty of reports of people testing positive again, after recovery, but so far, they have all turned out to be the latter.
Suppose I'm wrong and those are reinfections. What do we do then? Can we really keep social distancing forever?
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These is the first cases of reinfection I've heard of, so I question their validity.
You obviously haven't been looking, then. You can question their validity, but there are plenty of reports. There are also reports of studies of antibody measurements after people have recovered, showing the antibodies seem to tail off quickly.
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Biology isn't my "bag"... so, do we keep getting the common cold because we lose immunity, or is it because the common cold keeps mutating?
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Biology isn't my "bag"... so, do we keep getting the common cold because we lose immunity, or is it because the common cold keeps mutating?
A combination of things. There are numerous viruses that cause upper respiratory diseases collectively referred to as "the common cold".
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These is the first cases of reinfection I've heard of, so I question their validity.
You obviously haven't been looking, then. You can question their validity, but there are plenty of reports. There are also reports of studies of antibody measurements after people have recovered, showing the antibodies seem to tail off quickly.
1) I've read about the reports of supposed reinfections, but haven't heard of concrete cases. So far they're all just people who've falsely tested positive, as tests pick up dead virus particle. This is not new.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/infection-control/recovered-covid-19-patients-who-retest-positive-aren-t-infectious-study-finds.html (https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/infection-control/recovered-covid-19-patients-who-retest-positive-aren-t-infectious-study-finds.html)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8295495/EXPLAINER-S-Korean-findings-suggest-reinfected-coronavirus-cases-false-positives.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8295495/EXPLAINER-S-Korean-findings-suggest-reinfected-coronavirus-cases-false-positives.html)
2) So what? Antibodies will tail off quickly, but their presence, or lack of doesn't always indicate immunity.
Someone who has previously had COVID-19 might have few antibodies, but that doesn't mean they'll catch it again of get as sick, as their immune system might still remember the antigen and produce more antibodies. On the other hand, they still might have antibodies, yet still lack immunity. It's a complex subject, which isn't fully understood.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunological_memory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunological_memory)
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nice to see the uk goverbent moving with there usual speed,face masks in shops to be compulsory
tomorrow in 11 days time
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Can we really keep social distancing forever?
We might have to. The bigger question is whether we can do lockdowns again. On the news right now it's saying California has just shut down...
I think we should recognise that this is no longer about covid19, which is just a manifestation of the scare stories various people in the know have been harping on about for years. We're going to see similar again and probably worse, so maybe we should be thinking about how we're going to cope.
One problem right now is the High Street getting pruned, with shops not being allowed to open, or having distancing requirements, etc. That's clearly not sustainable, but mainly because of the way we're used to shopping. Prior to this year the shops have been struggling as people move to shopping online, and it's been on the cards that at some point bricks and mortar just won't be able to compete on price, and the majority of people will be buying online. Covid19 might just be hastening that process along rather faster than expected.
Businesses seem to have twigged that working from home is actually not a bad idea, and now the government want people back at work (so they go to the shops) there's pushback from companies that don't actually want their employees back in an office. Those shops will include cafes and the like which have only sprung up to cater for loads of people being employed in town centers - it's not like people choose to work at a place because a Costa is next door. Perhaps it would be better to just go with the flow and accept that town centers are not going to be full to overflowing, that employees are spread over the suburbs, and then when the next pandemic hits we won't have to go through the "don't go shopping" and then "please go shopping" phases again.
It seems that currently the emphasis is to get back to where we were, doing what we did, 7 months ago. Fine if this was a one-off but a bit short-sighted if it's not. So, if not actual 'social distancing', masks when out and about should become normal, probably. Even if there's no pandemic they should help with flu and colds.
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Can we really keep social distancing forever?
If you are truly British you have always socially distanced. Why would you ever stop? Just to be difficult, in true British style?
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If you are truly British you have always socially distanced. Why would you ever stop? Just to be difficult, in true British style?
My heritage is about 3/4 British, maybe that's why the social distancing part hasn't bothered me too much. :D
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Can we really keep social distancing forever?
We might have to. The bigger question is whether we can do lockdowns again. On the news right now it's saying California has just shut down...
I think we should recognise that this is no longer about covid19, which is just a manifestation of the scare stories various people in the know have been harping on about for years. We're going to see similar again and probably worse, so maybe we should be thinking about how we're going to cope.
One problem right now is the High Street getting pruned, with shops not being allowed to open, or having distancing requirements, etc. That's clearly not sustainable, but mainly because of the way we're used to shopping. Prior to this year the shops have been struggling as people move to shopping online, and it's been on the cards that at some point bricks and mortar just won't be able to compete on price, and the majority of people will be buying online. Covid19 might just be hastening that process along rather faster than expected.
Businesses seem to have twigged that working from home is actually not a bad idea, and now the government want people back at work (so they go to the shops) there's pushback from companies that don't actually want their employees back in an office. Those shops will include cafes and the like which have only sprung up to cater for loads of people being employed in town centers - it's not like people choose to work at a place because a Costa is next door. Perhaps it would be better to just go with the flow and accept that town centers are not going to be full to overflowing, that employees are spread over the suburbs, and then when the next pandemic hits we won't have to go through the "don't go shopping" and then "please go shopping" phases again.
It seems that currently the emphasis is to get back to where we were, doing what we did, 7 months ago. Fine if this was a one-off but a bit short-sighted if it's not. So, if not actual 'social distancing', masks when out and about should become normal, probably. Even if there's no pandemic they should help with flu and colds.
That sounds right to me. The world has moved on to a "new normal" already, the politicians just haven't caught up yet.
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Los Angeles, and to some degree all of California, has just about gone back to full lockdown as of today. Having income coming from Hollywood it's pretty sad.
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Can we really keep social distancing forever?
If you are truly British you have always socially distanced. Why would you ever stop? Just to be difficult, in true British style?
For all they that call me such a nihilist, I must say that one positive to take away from all this madness is that standing in a queue is better now that I'm not surrounded my mouth breathers.
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Being brutal, just as nature is. The No. 1 problem the planet has is too many humans. Nature is starting to take care of that. If there were less of us, it would be easier to deal with - less population density.
The opposition to this is that capitalism requires an expanding population so that the growth junkies in suits can keep their graphs going up even when markets are saturated. Just breed more customers.
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Los Angeles, and to some degree all of California, has just about gone back to full lockdown as of today. Having income coming from Hollywood it's pretty sad.
Yeah. I'm starting to notice new episodes of TV shows getting delayed.
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Being brutal, just as nature is. The No. 1 problem the planet has is too many humans. Nature is starting to take care of that. If there were less of us, it would be easier to deal with - less population density.
The opposition to this is that capitalism requires an expanding population so that the growth junkies in suits can keep their graphs going up even when markets are saturated. Just breed more customers.
For years I was saying lets put something in the water and you blokes wouldn't listen.
;)
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Being brutal, just as nature is. The No. 1 problem the planet has is too many humans. Nature is starting to take care of that. If there were less of us, it would be easier to deal with - less population density.
The opposition to this is that capitalism requires an expanding population so that the growth junkies in suits can keep their graphs going up even when markets are saturated. Just breed more customers.
For years I was saying lets put something in the water and you blokes wouldn't listen.
;)
I think they already did! :D
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Being brutal, just as nature is. The No. 1 problem the planet has is too many humans. Nature is starting to take care of that. If there were less of us, it would be easier to deal with - less population density.
The opposition to this is that capitalism requires an expanding population so that the growth junkies in suits can keep their graphs going up even when markets are saturated. Just breed more customers.
For years I was saying lets put something in the water and you blokes wouldn't listen.
;)
They did put something in the water, just not in the public supply. Maybe you were not specific enough. :)
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Los Angeles, and to some degree all of California, has just about gone back to full lockdown as of today. Having income coming from Hollywood it's pretty sad.
Yeah. I'm starting to notice new episodes of TV shows getting delayed.
Yea... My wife and I may need new fast food careers. Turns out we can't survive without any income. :palm:
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Can we really keep social distancing forever?
If you are truly British you have always socially distanced. Why would you ever stop? Just to be difficult, in true British style?
Tell that to those pissheads who used to go to nightclubs and pubs, spreading various diseases, back when they were properly open, with no social distancing.
Can we really keep social distancing forever?
We might have to. The bigger question is whether we can do lockdowns again. On the news right now it's saying California has just shut down...
I think we should recognise that this is no longer about covid19, which is just a manifestation of the scare stories various people in the know have been harping on about for years. We're going to see similar again and probably worse, so maybe we should be thinking about how we're going to cope.
One problem right now is the High Street getting pruned, with shops not being allowed to open, or having distancing requirements, etc. That's clearly not sustainable, but mainly because of the way we're used to shopping. Prior to this year the shops have been struggling as people move to shopping online, and it's been on the cards that at some point bricks and mortar just won't be able to compete on price, and the majority of people will be buying online. Covid19 might just be hastening that process along rather faster than expected.
Businesses seem to have twigged that working from home is actually not a bad idea, and now the government want people back at work (so they go to the shops) there's pushback from companies that don't actually want their employees back in an office. Those shops will include cafes and the like which have only sprung up to cater for loads of people being employed in town centers - it's not like people choose to work at a place because a Costa is next door. Perhaps it would be better to just go with the flow and accept that town centers are not going to be full to overflowing, that employees are spread over the suburbs, and then when the next pandemic hits we won't have to go through the "don't go shopping" and then "please go shopping" phases again.
It seems that currently the emphasis is to get back to where we were, doing what we did, 7 months ago. Fine if this was a one-off but a bit short-sighted if it's not. So, if not actual 'social distancing', masks when out and about should become normal, probably. Even if there's no pandemic they should help with flu and colds.
Well the UK government have announced to date that masks will be mandated in shops by the 24th July.
I agree with your points about the pandemic accelerating the move to online shopping and that many will continue with working from home, even when this is over. Regardless of the pandemic, the government should be encouraging working from home, where possible, because it will reduce pollution and CO2 emissions.
We have a housing shortage, so why not convert those empty shops to homes? Counceles are reluctant to do this because they get business rates from shops, but if they're empty, they'd be better off getting council tax from people living there, rather than nothing.
Working from home and shopping online will cost jobs in the short term, but in the long run, they'll be good for society.
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We have a housing shortage, so why not convert those empty shops to homes?
Because someone owns those shops, it's commercial property, it does not belong to the government.
That's like saying my old lab that I own is currently vacant, so the government can just come and take it and give it to someone. Err, nope.
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I don't think he implied the government would just take them. The landlords likely wouldn't care where their rent comes from so long as it's comparable, and the reason many commercial properties aren't luxury abodes is down to zoning rules. Relax those, let the rich gits live in the city centers and that frees up affordable housing away from town.
Or probably not, but the government can induce change-of-use without actually wrenching properties from their owners.
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I don't think he implied the government would just take them. The landlords likely wouldn't care where their rent comes from so long as it's comparable, and the reason many commercial properties aren't luxury abodes is down to zoning rules. Relax those, let the rich gits live in the city centers and that frees up affordable housing away from town.
Or probably not, but the government can induce change-of-use without actually wrenching properties from their owners.
Commercial rents are really high, so owners are not going to repurpose property as residential unless they have lost all hope of revitalising some kind of commercial use. Where owners have really lost hope for commercial use of their property it has already become residential. For example, most of the traditional corner shops, pubs and many churches in the UK are now someone's home.
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Here in the UK retail has been struggling for years now; both commercial rent and business rates (property tax) are still set at levels which reflect how profitable retail space used to be. They've not been reduced in proportion to the actual profit that a given retail site can now be expected to generate.
Unfortunately that means there are a lot of retail spaces becoming (and, crucially, remaining) vacant. The law of supply and demand might mean that commercial rent will come down in time, but that doesn't really apply to taxes.
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Corner shops were already residential - they are basically homes with a shop in the front room, except where they used to be like that and got refurbished as mini-supermarkets.
But for a landlord charging high-value rents, a lower rent is surely better than none. Don't forget that this is coming about because people are working from home and some companies will be offloading empty offices.
I haven't rented a commercial property, so don't know who pays what. Does the rent cover taxes (in which case it's not such a good deal for the landlord) or does the tenant pay the rates and the landlord just creams off megabucks for zero effort?
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Here in the UK retail has been struggling for years now; both commercial rent and business rates (property tax) are still set at levels which reflect how profitable retail space used to be. They've not been reduced in proportion to the actual profit that a given retail site can now be expected to generate.
Unfortunately that means there are a lot of retail spaces becoming (and, crucially, remaining) vacant. The law of supply and demand might mean that commercial rent will come down in time, but that doesn't really apply to taxes.
In the UK retail has several elements in conflict with each other. A key one is that retail parks around the edge of towns have been sucking customers out of city centre retail locations for decades. Now people tend to just focus on the effects of on-line purchases, but retail has been evolving, with changing winners and losers, since cities began.
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Corner shops were already residential - they are basically homes with a shop in the front room, except where they used to be like that and got refurbished as mini-supermarkets.
Most corner shops in the UK were built to be corner shops, zoned and taxed as such. The shopkeeper frequently lived above and/or behind the shop. Again this was frequently planned into the design of the building, which often doesn't have a security barrier between the shop area and the home area. There are, however, quite a lot where the shop and the accommodation were built to be used as completely separate entities. I think those are mostly later built ones, where the shop keeper could make enough money to be living in a nicer area. Now that the entire building is residential its usually easy to see from the facade what its origins were, as they tend to do these conversions at minimal cost.
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I don't think he implied the government would just take them. The landlords likely wouldn't care where their rent comes from so long as it's comparable, and the reason many commercial properties aren't luxury abodes is down to zoning rules. Relax those, let the rich gits live in the city centers and that frees up affordable housing away from town.
Or probably not, but the government can induce change-of-use without actually wrenching properties from their owners.
Commercial rents are really high, so owners are not going to repurpose property as residential unless they have lost all hope of revitalising some kind of commercial use. Where owners have really lost hope for commercial use of their property it has already become residential. For example, most of the traditional corner shops, pubs and many churches in the UK are now someone's home.
Unless it's a standalone commercial property on it's own land with a single owner, it will be strata owned (at least that's how it works here). And it's almost against strata policy for anyone to live in a commercial premises. So even if the government wanted to pay it would require the majority of the strata committee to agree. And as you say, most owners are not going to give up long term commercial rental gain for short term rent. And once people start living in it then "there goes the neighborhood" so to speak.
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Unfortunately that means there are a lot of retail spaces becoming (and, crucially, remaining) vacant. The law of supply and demand might mean that commercial rent will come down in time, but that doesn't really apply to taxes.
People who own commercial property usually have a very long term outlook on things. Going without rent for 6 month to a year between tenants is not uncommon. This is why most commercial owners want the longest lease possible.
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Unfortunately that means there are a lot of retail spaces becoming (and, crucially, remaining) vacant. The law of supply and demand might mean that commercial rent will come down in time, but that doesn't really apply to taxes.
People who own commercial property usually have a very long term outlook on things. Going without rent for 6 month to a year between tenants is not uncommon. This is why most commercial owners want the longest lease possible.
But in the end you'll need tenants. Over here online shopping is killing retail and the Corona crisis has accellerated that. Many older people who used to go to shops are now shopping online and it remains to be seen whether they will be going back to the shops now they found out about online shopping (which usually has a much much wider choice compared to a shop).
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Don't confuse commercial property with retail property. Totally different markets. The latter is a shit show and always has been. The last 6 months have really killed it dead though. Commercial property is very different and still in massive demand.
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But in the end you'll need tenants. Over here online shopping is killing retail and the Corona crisis has accellerated that. Many older people who used to go to shops are now shopping online and it remains to be seen whether they will be going back to the shops now they found out about online shopping (which usually has a much much wider choice compared to a shop).
In the 80s every new supermarket in the UK was huge, and it usually caused 2 or 3 smaller supermarkets in the area to close. My uncle fitted out point of sale systems in those places, and it seemed every time I saw him they had just done another store with more checkouts than anything before it. Now the big supermarket chains all operate a network of mini-supermarkets alongside their massive ones. A lot of retail patterns are fashion based and go around in circles. Right now there are still enough shops to go an see a product before buying it on line. When enough shops have been killed, maybe people will see greater value in stores again. I mostly buy products I'm pretty familiar with on line. I want to see and touch most other things.
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I haven't rented a commercial property, so don't know who pays what. Does the rent cover taxes (in which case it's not such a good deal for the landlord) or does the tenant pay the rates and the landlord just creams off megabucks for zero effort?
In the UK, the tenant pretty much exclusively pays taxes; residential or commercial. There are rate relief schemes for certain tenants, so for instance non-profits pay lower business rates, but generally speaking they are based on property value.
I think if landlords had to pay this tax then suddenly there would be huge pressure to reduce it!
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But in the end you'll need tenants. Over here online shopping is killing retail and the Corona crisis has accellerated that. Many older people who used to go to shops are now shopping online and it remains to be seen whether they will be going back to the shops now they found out about online shopping (which usually has a much much wider choice compared to a shop).
In the 80s every new supermarket in the UK was huge, and it usually caused 2 or 3 smaller supermarkets in the area to close. My uncle fitted out point of sale systems in those places, and it seemed every time I saw him they had just done another store with more checkouts than anything before it. Now the big supermarket chains all operate a network of mini-supermarkets alongside their massive ones. A lot of retail patterns are fashion based and go around in circles. Right now there are still enough shops to go an see a product before buying it on line. When enough shops have been killed, maybe people will see greater value in stores again. I mostly buy products I'm pretty familiar with on line. I want to see and touch most other things.
I want to get them delivered, see them and touch them, then send them back if they're a pile of crap. And that's what I've been doing for ages without incurring parking fees, travel fees and diseased folk. :-//
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Here in the UK retail has been struggling for years now; both commercial rent and business rates (property tax) are still set at levels which reflect how profitable retail space used to be. They've not been reduced in proportion to the actual profit that a given retail site can now be expected to generate.
Unfortunately that means there are a lot of retail spaces becoming (and, crucially, remaining) vacant. The law of supply and demand might mean that commercial rent will come down in time, but that doesn't really apply to taxes.
In the UK retail has several elements in conflict with each other. A key one is that retail parks around the edge of towns have been sucking customers out of city centre retail locations for decades. Now people tend to just focus on the effects of on-line purchases, but retail has been evolving, with changing winners and losers, since cities began.
Technology has being driving that change. Everyone getting cars was responsible for the migration of retail out of towns and cities and now we have the Internet which is driving bricks and mortor retail out of business. We'll keep food retail, as most people still prefer to physically buy it, but it'll be more from smaller shops, in town, than superstores.
We have a housing shortage, so why not convert those empty shops to homes?
Because someone owns those shops, it's commercial property, it does not belong to the government.
That's like saying my old lab that I own is currently vacant, so the government can just come and take it and give it to someone. Err, nope.
It's odd how everyone thinks everything in other countries is the same, as where they live. . .
Many of the shops in the UK are owned by the councils and could easily be converted into residential. The government spends lots of money to house people in private properties, so a lot of money could be saved by converting empty shops, to homes for those who desperately need them.
And if you leave your property for too long, the government can come and get it and sell it to someone else. You will receive some money for it, but probably not much. https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/news/article/508/council_seizes_seven_empty_properties (https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/news/article/508/council_seizes_seven_empty_properties)
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It's odd how everyone thinks everything in other countries is the same, as where they live. . .
Many of the shops in the UK are owned by the councils and could easily be converted into residential. The government spends lots of money to house people in private properties, so a lot of money could be saved by converting empty shops, to homes for those who desperately need them.
It's not really that odd, people base their perspective on whatever they're familiar with.
One of the problems with the proposal at least where I am is that a substantial portion of the homeless population are drug addicts and/or mentally ill. Just give them a place to live and it will quickly be trashed and become a hot spot for drug use and crime, nobody wants to live next door to that and for valid reasons. Neighboring businesses will soon leave as crime rages and drives away customers and you get a cascading effect. Many of the people who desperately need a place to live also desperately need help with their illness/addiction.
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And if you leave your property for too long, the government can come and get it and sell it to someone else
but its fine to leave your holiday home empty for months whilst the locals are priced out of the market
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Here in the UK retail has been struggling for years now; both commercial rent and business rates (property tax) are still set at levels which reflect how profitable retail space used to be. They've not been reduced in proportion to the actual profit that a given retail site can now be expected to generate.
Unfortunately that means there are a lot of retail spaces becoming (and, crucially, remaining) vacant. The law of supply and demand might mean that commercial rent will come down in time, but that doesn't really apply to taxes.
In the UK retail has several elements in conflict with each other. A key one is that retail parks around the edge of towns have been sucking customers out of city centre retail locations for decades. Now people tend to just focus on the effects of on-line purchases, but retail has been evolving, with changing winners and losers, since cities began.
Technology has being driving that change. Everyone getting cars was responsible for the migration of retail out of towns and cities and now we have the Internet which is driving bricks and mortor retail out of business. We'll keep food retail, as most people still prefer to physically buy it, but it'll be more from smaller shops, in town, than superstores.
Sure, but what comes next? There's always something coming next, and people never see it coming or what its consequences will be. They just explain post hoc with the attitude that it was always obvious. ;)
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And if you leave your property for too long, the government can come and get it and sell it to someone else
but its fine to leave your holiday home empty for months whilst the locals are priced out of the market
I wonder how much a personal holiday home brings into the local community, versus a holiday home owned by the locals that is rented out? The large number of people passing through the rented out home suggests they have the bigger financial impact. However, the personally owned home brings in property tax from outside, and will see some erratic use throughout the year. I think most of the rented out homes are completely dead for several months a year. Its complex.
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And if you leave your property for too long, the government can come and get it and sell it to someone else
but its fine to leave your holiday home empty for months whilst the locals are priced out of the market
I wonder how much a personal holiday home brings into the local community, versus a holiday home owned by the locals that is rented out? The large number of people passing through the rented out home suggests they have the bigger financial impact. However, the personally owned home brings in property tax from outside, and will see some erratic use throughout the year. I think most of the rented out homes are completely dead for several months a year. Its complex.
This one is interesting as I'm about to buy one.
I'm not taking anything from the local economy in the short term. I am bringing tourist income as I intend to rent it out peak season and occasionally crash in it myself when I want to go hiking etc. I am paying council tax for a property which will have low service impact on schools, refuse collection etc. I'm not polluting. I'll end up living in it when I retire. Is that a problem? :-//
The locals are priced out of the market only because the ancestors of the locals sold off their entire local industry to make some coin rather than looked at the long term. Now it's fungible service roles which command a low price because anyone can do the work. Do I owe them anything?
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Don't confuse commercial property with retail property. Totally different markets. The latter is a shit show and always has been. The last 6 months have really killed it dead though. Commercial property is very different and still in massive demand.
I wouldn't be so sure about that either. Recently I spoke someone who works at a big bank. When I asked how long she had to work from home her answer was 'indefinitely'. She wasn't laid off but the bank has seen the positive sides of working from home and is now downsizing the amount of office space.
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Yeah that's the same here but they tend to convert offices into housing here. Retail is slightly different. A lot of the retail outlets are mixed purpose and leasehold here which means changing purpose is harder and most of the buildings aren't built to fire regulations required for housing.
We're probably only going to have skeleton office after this too and lease the rest of the building out.
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But in the end you'll need tenants. Over here online shopping is killing retail and the Corona crisis has accellerated that. Many older people who used to go to shops are now shopping online and it remains to be seen whether they will be going back to the shops now they found out about online shopping (which usually has a much much wider choice compared to a shop).
In the 80s every new supermarket in the UK was huge, and it usually caused 2 or 3 smaller supermarkets in the area to close. My uncle fitted out point of sale systems in those places, and it seemed every time I saw him they had just done another store with more checkouts than anything before it. Now the big supermarket chains all operate a network of mini-supermarkets alongside their massive ones. A lot of retail patterns are fashion based and go around in circles. Right now there are still enough shops to go an see a product before buying it on line. When enough shops have been killed, maybe people will see greater value in stores again.
The problem is that shops don't have a wide variety; they mostly carry generic stuff. I basically stopped visiting shops because I left empty handed too many times. When I buy clothes I usually start with a selection of 5000 to 7000 items (shirts for example). That gets reduced to a short list of 20 from which I order 6 and keep 2 or 3.
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We have a housing shortage, so why not convert those empty shops to homes?
Because someone owns those shops, it's commercial property, it does not belong to the government.
That's like saying my old lab that I own is currently vacant, so the government can just come and take it and give it to someone. Err, nope.
No, but the government can invent a tax for empty offices which then makes the choice for the owner to convert it to homes 'easier'.
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The holiday homes i meen are those that get used for a long weekend between trips to the skiing chalet and taking the yacht down to the monaco, that are exempt from council tax and sit empty for most of the year.As for converting town center property into housing,fine,but dont start complaining when the long established town center business is keeping you awake at midnight.
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It's odd how everyone thinks everything in other countries is the same, as where they live. . .
Many of the shops in the UK are owned by the councils and could easily be converted into residential. The government spends lots of money to house people in private properties, so a lot of money could be saved by converting empty shops, to homes for those who desperately need them.
It's not really that odd, people base their perspective on whatever they're familiar with.
One of the problems with the proposal at least where I am is that a substantial portion of the homeless population are drug addicts and/or mentally ill. Just give them a place to live and it will quickly be trashed and become a hot spot for drug use and crime, nobody wants to live next door to that and for valid reasons. Neighboring businesses will soon leave as crime rages and drives away customers and you get a cascading effect. Many of the people who desperately need a place to live also desperately need help with their illness/addiction.
Yes that's true for some homeless people, especially those who live on the street, but it's more often not the case. Quite often there are homeless people who don't live on the street, but their housing conditions/living arrangements are poor. They might float from different friends/relatives houses, or live in an overcrowded property. That might not be too bad for single people, but it's quite bad for children. It's also bad for a couple with a young family to be living with their parents, especially with COVID-19 around.
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The problem is that shops don't have a wide variety; they mostly carry generic stuff. I basically stopped visiting shops because I left empty handed too many times. When I buy clothes I usually start with a selection of 5000 to 7000 items (shirts for example). That gets reduced to a short list of 20 from which I order 6 and keep 2 or 3.
I still shop locally occasionally, it's nice when I want something NOW or when I'm getting things like produce or lumber where I want to pick through the pile and select exactly the items I want. I've gotten fed up on many occasions though when a store doesn't have what I want in stock and their response is they can order it for me. If I wanted to order it I could do that at home instead of driving to the store and then driving back again to collect the item when it comes in.
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I still shop locally occasionally, it's nice when I want something NOW or when I'm getting things like produce or lumber where I want to pick through the pile and select exactly the items I want. I've gotten fed up on many occasions though when a store doesn't have what I want in stock and their response is they can order it for me. If I wanted to order it I could do that at home instead of driving to the store and then driving back again to collect the item when it comes in.
Yep, we're digging our own grave.
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This one is interesting as I'm about to buy one.
Buy to let is exactly the issue. Has been for a while and it's got quite serious. It's nothing more than landlords buying up all the properties and then renting them back out at twice (or higher) the mortgagable rate to make profit.
I just moved from a 2 bed apartment in a 3 apartment/3 shop complex paying £600 a month, to a full 3 bed semi-detached house with front and rear gardens and drive/garage.... Mortgage + rates = £550 a month.
But those on lesser income will not get a mortgage so they get stuck paying higher and higher rents. Calls to regulate the landlord business to cap rents and force landlords to provide "quality of service" and "minimal living standards" in their properties, was voted out in parliament. Everyone of the Tories who voted against it... you guessed it... have multiple properties to let. No conflict of interest at all. I want that vote taken again, but anyone who has a for-let property be banned from voting.
With the UK crawling further and further into bed with the US and with Brexit removing very rapidly our human rights bill and employement rights this will just get worse. When the employement rights go getting a mortgage will become much, much harder, so only the affluent will have the capital to leverage a mortgage, meaning the rich will own all the property and the poor will pay rent and jump to their landlords whim.
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This one is interesting as I'm about to buy one.
Buy to let is exactly the issue. Has been for a while and it's got quite serious. It's nothing more than landlords buying up all the properties and then renting them back out at twice (or higher) the mortgagable rate to make profit.
I just moved from a 2 bed apartment in a 3 apartment/3 shop complex paying £600 a month, to a full 3 bed semi-detached house with front and rear gardens and drive/garage.... Mortgage + rates = £550 a month.
But those on lesser income will not get a mortgage so they get stuck paying higher and higher rents. Calls to regulate the landlord business to cap rents and force landlords to provide "quality of service" and "minimal living standards" in their properties, was voted out in parliament. Everyone of the Tories who voted against it... you guessed it... have multiple properties to let. No conflict of interest at all. I want that vote taken again, but anyone who has a for-let property be banned from voting.
With the UK crawling further and further into bed with the US and with Brexit removing very rapidly our human rights bill and employement rights this will just get worse. When the employement rights go getting a mortgage will become much, much harder, so only the affluent will have the capital to leverage a mortgage, meaning the rich will own all the property and the poor will pay rent and jump to their landlords whim.
:=\ Evil landlords want to get us back to Feudalism!!! EU - save us!!!
Look, I understand your grievance but you should listen to yourself and maybe read some other sources as well before typing such hyperbolic blanket statements.
The Housing Market is already over regulated in most places including Switzerland and that is the main reason for unhappy renters AND Landlords.
That, the broken competition via regulation and the massive Influx of people to hotspots i.e major Cities natural and artificial produces places with quite unaffordable rent.
Berlin is a placed where I lived for a few years which exemplified this Problem and they had a Left, Far Left and Greens in Power for years (almost 20 now) and they only managed to make it worse for everyone involved.
And No - I am not renting out Property.
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This one is interesting as I'm about to buy one.
Buy to let is exactly the issue. Has been for a while and it's got quite serious. It's nothing more than landlords buying up all the properties and then renting them back out at twice (or higher) the mortgagable rate to make profit.
I just moved from a 2 bed apartment in a 3 apartment/3 shop complex paying £600 a month, to a full 3 bed semi-detached house with front and rear gardens and drive/garage.... Mortgage + rates = £550 a month.
But those on lesser income will not get a mortgage so they get stuck paying higher and higher rents. Calls to regulate the landlord business to cap rents and force landlords to provide "quality of service" and "minimal living standards" in their properties, was voted out in parliament. Everyone of the Tories who voted against it... you guessed it... have multiple properties to let. No conflict of interest at all. I want that vote taken again, but anyone who has a for-let property be banned from voting.
With the UK crawling further and further into bed with the US and with Brexit removing very rapidly our human rights bill and employement rights this will just get worse. When the employement rights go getting a mortgage will become much, much harder, so only the affluent will have the capital to leverage a mortgage, meaning the rich will own all the property and the poor will pay rent and jump to their landlords whim.
:=\ Evil landlords want to get us back to Feudalism!!! EU - save us!!!
Look, I understand your grievance but you should listen to yourself and maybe read some other sources as well before typing such hyperbolic blanket statements.
The Housing Market is already over regulated in most places including Switzerland and that is the main reason for unhappy renters AND Landlords.
That, the broken competition via regulation and the massive Influx of people to hotspots i.e major Cities natural and artificial produces places with quite unaffordable rent.
Berlin is a placed where I lived for a few years which exemplified this Problem and they had a Left, Far Left and Greens in Power for years (almost 20 now) and they only managed to make it worse for everyone involved.
And No - I am not renting out Property.
The reason rents (and house prices) are so high is because people are willing to pay that much - basically, the price is "what the market is willing (and able) to pay".
This is compounded by most people wanting "somewhere nice" to live, so they stretch what they are able to pay to the max.
Most people are not professional buyers in their day time jobs, they just look at what everyone else is (over)paying and go along with that (what else can they really do).
So you end up with a vicious circle of uninformed buyers that plow as much of their salaries as they can into their dwellings, while crying about lack of disposable income all the while.
We all have the choice of living in a more modest place and using the money saved for something else, but few elect to do that...
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We all have the choice of living in a more modest place
Really? When there is a housing shortage it's just a game of musical chairs where those with money get a seat and those without being fucked. The reason there aren't more people on the street is because of couch surfing and living with parents. Plus even if you can afford a place to live, if that's soaking up the majority of your income then you're basically living in poverty.
'What the market is willing to pay' is inappropriate here. You could say the same about food, and sure enough if you're skint you can buy ridiculously cheap frozen ready-meals. Which have very little nutritional value and not that much better for you than eating sugared cardboard. But, hey, that's your choice if you don't have the money, right? Fresh food, fruit, vegs... just luxury items and if you can't afford to play the game, well, that's what the market is willing to pay.
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IN Australia, the primary reason for high rents and exhorbitant housing prices here is gross economic mismanagement by state and federal governments who are addicted to high immigration rates and feeding the tax breaks for housing investors. Most politicians have investment properties and use it for tax minimisation. In this city, homelessness is a growing problem mainly because the homeless cannot afford to live anywhere. Meanwhile there are 80,000 empty properties in this city that are mostly owned by foreigners hiding money here - another government debacle. The government are 100% to blame and deserve utter contempt, or worse. They are the cause of a lowering birth rate, kids left in expensive child care as mum is forced to work to make ends meet.
This housing Ponzi scheme is close to crashing thanks to COVID-19 and the greedy "mum and dad" housing investors will hopefully lose, so that young Australians can afford their first home. We need a major paradigm shift in government policy where houses are viewed as homes, and not speculative investment products.
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However, if you are disabled, ill, or just unemployed the government offer you something pathetic like £60 a week towards your rent and about the same to live on. If you live somewhere that costs more, like anywhere out side of a council provided house, the might pay you a bit more, but if you a single living in a 2 bed apartment, they will "tax" you for the unused room.
The lack of affordable homes for the poor is an issue that goes someway to causing homelessness and definately provides a way for rich landlords to syphon money out of the welfare state.
The issues are that a second home (or renting out your original apartment) when you upgrade, results in you the landlord paying two mortgages. So the mortgage for your apartment might still be £400 a month, to cover maintenance, rates and make a profit you need to charge £800 a month. Putting that out of many people's markets.
But that isn't the worst. Say the government do build 100,000 affordable homes costing £100-£150k to own. The property tycoons are straight in there and buy the majority of them off plan. By the time they are ready to live in, rather than a lower class family being about to get a £400 month mortgage on one of the, the tycoons are renting them out for £800 and sitting on a beach somewhere. Worse, in a lot of cases they will chop the house up into 2 apartments and rent each out for £600 a month.
This already happened. Most of the council housing stock was allowed to be sold to private owners in the 80s/90s. I can go onto a local rag here and find properties which were council houses with £60 a week rent being rented for £700 a month.
*Prices dependant on the area you live, for London, add a 0
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As Dave said to someone else, before locking them out...
EEVBLOG
Please STOP posting Covid threads on this forum.
Locked.
Unless of course it is HIS thread, with over 87000 views
and nearly 2000 replies.
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In case you hadn't noticed, this is Dave's forum and since there apparently isn't a democratic steering committee, nor even any investors to pander to, he can do whatever the hell he likes, including not just one rule for him and another for the rest but a separate rule for every individual poster. And then ignore them if he wants.
There are alternative windmills, where a result is possible, if you must tilt at one.
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We all have the choice of living in a more modest place
Really? When there is a housing shortage it's just a game of musical chairs where those with money get a seat and those without being fucked. The reason there aren't more people on the street is because of couch surfing and living with parents. Plus even if you can afford a place to live, if that's soaking up the majority of your income then you're basically living in poverty.
'What the market is willing to pay' is inappropriate here. You could say the same about food, and sure enough if you're skint you can buy ridiculously cheap frozen ready-meals. Which have very little nutritional value and not that much better for you than eating sugared cardboard. But, hey, that's your choice if you don't have the money, right? Fresh food, fruit, vegs... just luxury items and if you can't afford to play the game, well, that's what the market is willing to pay.
For the purposes of this discussion, I am assuming you have a job and are making enough money that you are in a position to buy or rent a place. If you are not yet in that position, it is a whole different discussion.
My observation over the years with family and friends, is pretty consistent: people always buy or rent the absolute max house they can possibly afford. They do the same with their car, and their phone, and, and, .... Nothing but the best for my family!
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However, if you are disabled, ill, or just unemployed the government offer you something pathetic like £60 a week towards your rent
And very little chance of help with the deposit ,and as payments are made in arrears no chance of paying the one month upfront either.
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As Dave said to someone else, before locking them out...
EEVBLOG
Please STOP posting Covid threads on this forum.
Locked.
Unless of course it is HIS thread, with over 87000 views
and nearly 2000 replies.
It's one things contained to one thread, and another to have people like you starting new covid and other off-topic threads all the time. Just stop it.
I deleted your latest covid thread.
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We all have the choice of living in a more modest place
Really? When there is a housing shortage it's just a game of musical chairs where those with money get a seat and those without being fucked. The reason there aren't more people on the street is because of couch surfing and living with parents. Plus even if you can afford a place to live, if that's soaking up the majority of your income then you're basically living in poverty.
'What the market is willing to pay' is inappropriate here. You could say the same about food, and sure enough if you're skint you can buy ridiculously cheap frozen ready-meals.
I fully agree. Too expensive housing is killing any chance for young people to have a decent place to live. Currently there is a movement going towards 'tiny houses'. Oh so cute but realistically it is just poverty with a thin layer of chrome on top to make it shiny.
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../
In this city /..
Which city, mate?
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We all have the choice of living in a more modest place
Really? When there is a housing shortage it's just a game of musical chairs where those with money get a seat and those without being fucked. The reason there aren't more people on the street is because of couch surfing and living with parents. Plus even if you can afford a place to live, if that's soaking up the majority of your income then you're basically living in poverty.
'What the market is willing to pay' is inappropriate here. You could say the same about food, and sure enough if you're skint you can buy ridiculously cheap frozen ready-meals.
I fully agree. Too expensive housing is killing any chance for young people to have a decent place to live. Currently there is a movement going towards 'tiny houses'. Oh so cute but realistically it is just poverty with a thin layer of chrome on top to make it shiny.
Doesn't population growth factor into it? There is only so much land...
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As Dave said to someone else, before locking them out...
EEVBLOG
Please STOP posting Covid threads on this forum.
Locked.
Unless of course it is HIS thread, with over 87000 views
and nearly 2000 replies.
It's one things contained to one thread, and another to have people like you starting new covid and other off-topic threads all the time. Just stop it.
I deleted your latest covid thread.
Whilst I appreciate the full-time job of maintaining the forum to a certain degree, we need to realise that covid is all that is happening from a news standpoint, so it's all that some want to talk about. We are bombarded by rubbish on TV and twittter.
I suggest going after these lying, fuckhead Journos on twitter. It's not Dave's fault for any of this. If you care that much, attack the problem at the source.
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I fully agree. Too expensive housing is killing any chance for young people to have a decent place to live. Currently there is a movement going towards 'tiny houses'. Oh so cute but realistically it is just poverty with a thin layer of chrome on top to make it shiny.
If you want house prices to come down get interest rates back up to where they were when housing was cheaper. Buying a house will always be financially painful. It was damned hard to buy a house in the 70s and 80s, when house prices were relatively low, but interest rates on a mortgage could be eye watering. If you reduce interest rates, house prices naturally rise until the eye watering readjusts to its old level. Only in places like Texas, where there is a lot more land than people, do you see long term lowish house prices. Even there things are now being distorted in places like Plano by companies fleeing California, who bring with them a bunch of people with a huge pile of cash from selling their overpriced homes in California.
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Doesn't population growth factor into it? There is only so much land...
It plays in a lot, but the largest generation (still) are the boomers. The millennial generation was quite small.
It's to be expected that the largest generation would vote the way it wants the world to be.
Unfortunately that is not exactly what the future generations needs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A&t=50s)
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Doesn't population growth factor into it? There is only so much land...
It plays in a lot, but the largest generation (still) are the boomers. The millennial generation was quite small.
It's to be expected that the largest generation would vote the way it wants the world to be.
Unfortunately that is not exactly what the future generations needs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A&t=50s)
Everything's the Boomer's fault, huh?
:)
Edit: I didn't watch the 47min vid, but that vid title is provocative enough. Esp when posed as a question.
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Edit: I didn't watch the 47min vid, but that vid title is provocative enough. Esp when posed as a question.
It's the Royal Institute Lecturers. Done in the same very lecturer theatre as people like Faraday gave their lecturers. I believe that desk IS the SAME desk.
And, "fault", no sure, but they have a momentum in society that allows them to pull society with them and continue to favour them.
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I fully agree. Too expensive housing is killing any chance for young people to have a decent place to live. Currently there is a movement going towards 'tiny houses'. Oh so cute but realistically it is just poverty with a thin layer of chrome on top to make it shiny.
If you want house prices to come down get interest rates back up to where they were when housing was cheaper. Buying a house will always be financially painful. It was damned hard to buy a house in the 70s and 80s, when house prices were relatively low, but interest rates on a mortgage could be eye watering. If you reduce interest rates, house prices naturally rise until the eye watering readjusts to its old level. Only in places like Texas, where there is a lot more land than people, do you see long term lowish house prices. Even there things are now being distorted in places like Plano by companies fleeing California, who bring with them a bunch of people with a huge pile of cash from selling their overpriced homes in California.
I remember paying 18% interest on the mortgage... yes, houses were cheaper, but...
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We all have the choice of living in a more modest place
Really? When there is a housing shortage it's just a game of musical chairs where those with money get a seat and those without being fucked. The reason there aren't more people on the street is because of couch surfing and living with parents. Plus even if you can afford a place to live, if that's soaking up the majority of your income then you're basically living in poverty.
I think what it comes down to is there are just way too many people. I've watched the population in the area where I live explode throughout my lifetime and tens of thousands more people keep pouring in all the time, I don't even know where they're all coming from. There are far more people than there are nice locations where people want to live, as long as that's the case there will be housing shortages and people priced out of the market. We can't build our way out of this either, the more housing they build and the more affordable they make it, the more people flood in to fill it. It's like where they widen the roads over and over adding lanes and traffic never gets better.
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As Dave said to someone else, before locking them out...
EEVBLOG
Please STOP posting Covid threads on this forum.
Locked.
Unless of course it is HIS thread, with over 87000 views
and nearly 2000 replies.
It's one things contained to one thread, and another to have people like you starting new covid and other off-topic threads all the time. Just stop it.
I deleted your latest covid thread.
Yes, Covid is kind of inescapable and all-encompassing right now, it is affecting all of us and is essentially impossible to avoid. It's nice to have a place to discuss things related to it and I think for the most part things have remained very civil. On the same note, I completely agree that it should be contained to ONE thread. It has already permeated all parts of day to day life, I don't want it to permeate all parts of every forum I'm on too.
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Doesn't population growth factor into it? There is only so much land...
Yeah, what we need is something like a global pandemic to thin them out a bit.
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Yes, Covid is kind of inescapable and all-encompassing right now, it is affecting all of us and is essentially impossible to avoid.
It extremely relevant to an electronics forum, as I am starting to hear from more and more hardware and software engineers who are now searching for a job in a terrible market. The past one or two weeks seems to have been the crunch point where many people have moved from working at home or furloughed, to laid off.
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Yes, Covid is kind of inescapable and all-encompassing right now, it is affecting all of us and is essentially impossible to avoid.
It extremely relevant to an electronics forum, as I am starting to hear from more and more hardware and software engineers who are now searching for a job in a terrible market. The past one or two weeks seems to have been the crunch point where many people have moved from working at home or furloughed, to laid off.
I don't want to seem to be cold, but where I am, there is work. Whilst I understand those who graduated would prefer a particular station in life, the fact is right now the industries, such as supermarkets, cannot secure willing staff because accepting even casual work affect their welfare benefit status.
Now, I understand there a number who find that statement egregious, what I fail to understand is why young, fit people cannot see that the last thing you want when you're active and youthful is a desk job.
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As a software engineer I fear I may be sat on a step having watched lots of industries fall harshly, now dangling my feet over that edge my smile is fading.
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It plays in a lot, but the largest generation (still) are the boomers. The millennial generation was quite small.
The millennial generation wasn't small, it's just that the boomer generation was huge. Not anymore. Enough boomers have died off that millennials took the numerical lead last year, at least in the US. Boomers are still the larger voting block, simply because a higher percentage of them actually vote, but time will change that too, soon enough. If you combine Millennials with Gen X and voting-age Gen Z, they easily outnumber the boomer and remaining silent generation.
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It plays in a lot, but the largest generation (still) are the boomers. The millennial generation was quite small.
The millennial generation wasn't small, it's just that the boomer generation was huge. Not anymore. Enough boomers have died off that millennials took the numerical lead last year, at least in the US. Boomers are still the larger voting block, simply because a higher percentage of them actually vote, but time will change that too, soon enough. If you combine Millennials with Gen X and voting-age Gen Z, they easily outnumber the boomer and remaining silent generation.
If we can present them something to vote for... and kick them on their arse to get out to vote.
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As a software engineer I fear I may be sat on a step having watched lots of industries fall harshly
Well, while you're navel gazing, think about whose fault all this really is. (not saying it's you, btw)
, now dangling my feet over that edge my smile is fading.
Life is like driving a truck. There's a hill ahead? Start thinking about switching gears before the engine stalls.
Some of you might have heard about economic recovery forecast graphs. And the assigned letter of the alphabet that corresponds to how speculators think things will go.
Some suggest it will be a 'V' recovery. Some think it will be an "L" :palm:
An interesting one that's just come out is the "K" recovery.
That means they think that the economy will dimorph. Some things that are allowed to prosper will go gangbusters. Other things, not so much.
The question is, which horse are you going to ride?
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The question is, which horse are you going to ride?
I'm a software engineer. I make everything work. Bitches. :D :-DD
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The question is, which horse are you going to ride?
I'm a software engineer. I make everything work. Bitches. :D :-DD
Where were you in my scope firmware thread?
:P
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Doesn't population growth factor into it? There is only so much land...
Yeah, what we need is something like a global pandemic to thin them out a bit.
The thing is, even under catastrophic conditions covid would wipe out "only" around 1% of the population. That's a staggering number of lives on an individual level, but a 1% reduction is not exactly going to alleviate overpopulation.
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It extremely relevant to an electronics forum, as I am starting to hear from more and more hardware and software engineers who are now searching for a job in a terrible market. The past one or two weeks seems to have been the crunch point where many people have moved from working at home or furloughed, to laid off.
I would try to stay optimistic. It is a temporary situation, even though we cannot really see the light at the end of the tunnel yet. Lingering effects will likely drag on for years, perhaps a decade or more but prosperity will gradually return. We made it through the two dot-com busts, the housing/banking crisis and other smaller downturns. There will be a lot of people looking for jobs, but there are also likely to be a lot of unemployed people founding new companies as things start to improve. Opportunities will rise from the rubble.
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Software (business/financial) market is fine here in UK. In fact we can't get anyone and have had to hire in a shit load of contractors. :--
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even under catastrophic conditions covid would wipe out "only" around 1% of the population
Just a practice run to fine-tune things.
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Doesn't population growth factor into it? There is only so much land...
Yeah, what we need is something like a global pandemic to thin them out a bit.
The thing is, even under catastrophic conditions covid would wipe out "only" around 1% of the population. That's a staggering number of lives on an individual level, but a 1% reduction is not exactly going to alleviate overpopulation.
I think people are more worried about the long term health effects, more than deaths now.
The fertility rate is below the replacement rate in many western countries and it will become that way in many developing countries, in the near future, so we're in for more of a population crash, than overpopulation.
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Software (business/financial) market is fine here in UK. In fact we can't get anyone and have had to hire in a shit load of contractors. :--
Have you considered paying them well? Recruitment never seems to be a problem when the price is right, as attested by your ability to find contractors. :)
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I think people are more worried about the long term health effects, more than deaths now.
The fertility rate is below the replacement rate in many western countries and it will become that way in many developing countries, in the near future, so we're in for more of a population crash, than overpopulation.
It will take 60-100 years before that really starts to be noticeable. It is going to be an unpleasant but very necessary adjustment, at over 7 Billion and growing there are way too many humans and nature is going to make some adjustments since we have not. The earth cannot sustain anywhere near that many people at a typical Western standard of living. What we have now is simply not sustainable, with any system that relies on infinite expansion on a finite planet it's ultimately going to be time to pay the piper.
Also a lot could happen between now and then. We could easily have one or more major world wars, nations could collapse or be conquered, there is a non-zero chance of some major world restructuring and/or catastrophic events that could completely change the course.
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Have you considered paying them well? Recruitment never seems to be a problem when the price is right, as attested by your ability to find contractors. :)
Or offer other perks. My employer doesn't pay all that great, but they offered flexible hours, work from home even prior to Covid, "unlimited" PTO which means essentially that as long as your work gets done you can just take time off whenever you need it. All in all it's been a very low stress environment where I'm given a tremendous amount of freedom to manage myself, own my areas and handle them as I see fit. When I first joined it sounded rather chaotic but being generally self motivated it has been a really good fit for me and quite a few other smart people.
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Or offer other perks. My employer doesn't pay all that great, but they offered flexible hours, work from home even prior to Covid, "unlimited" PTO which means essentially that as long as your work gets done you can just take time off whenever you need it.
Altium used to have free food (breakfast, lunch, and dinner), make your own hours, free gym membership, free car washing, free concierge errand service (i.e. get someone to go to the shop to buy something for you etc) and other stuff. Still couldn't get staff because of the shitty location, probably the worst spot in Sydney for a tech company.
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Software (business/financial) market is fine here in UK. In fact we can't get anyone and have had to hire in a shit load of contractors. :--
Have you considered paying them well? Recruitment never seems to be a problem when the price is right, as attested by your ability to find contractors. :)
Our pay is top notch plus we have the best bonus and pension contribution scheme in the entire industry. The issue is we’re not Facebook or Google and the location isn’t central London and it’s not a trendy startup or big brand name so we have to compete with a lot of companies that tick those boxes.
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UK sees spike in IT job advertisements as lockdown eases
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53438262 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53438262)
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Our pay is top notch plus we have the best bonus and pension contribution scheme in the entire industry. The issue is we’re not Facebook or Google and the location isn’t central London and it’s not a trendy startup or big brand name so we have to compete with a lot of companies that tick those boxes.
Our company has resorted to "Shortage of skills Visas" and importing entire families from India. Not something I fully support. It artificially increases the labour force during the boom which can lead to problems when the inevitable bust comes.
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I dealt with Indian outsources for a few years. Yup. No thanks. Not to say there aren’t skilled folk out there but it’s difficult to get through the layers to find them.
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UK sees spike in IT job advertisements as lockdown eases
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53438262 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53438262)
That's hardly surprising, given more people shopping and working from home. There are always winners and losers. The government wants people to return to work by the start of August, but I suspect many employers will still want to keep remote working in place. It suits many people and social distancing will still be in force, which will mean it's illegal to cram as many people in an office, as it was before and many companies simply don't have enough space for everyone.
Or offer other perks. My employer doesn't pay all that great, but they offered flexible hours, work from home even prior to Covid, "unlimited" PTO which means essentially that as long as your work gets done you can just take time off whenever you need it.
Altium used to have free food (breakfast, lunch, and dinner), make your own hours, free gym membership, free car washing, free concierge errand service (i.e. get someone to go to the shop to buy something for you etc) and other stuff. Still couldn't get staff because of the shitty location, probably the worst spot in Sydney for a tech company.
Did they consider working from home, when possible?
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Our pay is top notch plus we have the best bonus and pension contribution scheme in the entire industry. The issue is we’re not Facebook or Google and the location isn’t central London and it’s not a trendy startup or big brand name so we have to compete with a lot of companies that tick those boxes.
A job being in Central London is a huge disadvantage. Nobody wants to work there, with all the commuting hassle. If you are out of London you have real advanatages. You seem to be making excuses.
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Our pay is top notch plus we have the best bonus and pension contribution scheme in the entire industry. The issue is we’re not Facebook or Google and the location isn’t central London and it’s not a trendy startup or big brand name so we have to compete with a lot of companies that tick those boxes.
Our company has resorted to "Shortage of skills Visas" and importing entire families from India. Not something I fully support. It artificially increases the labour force during the boom which can lead to problems when the inevitable bust comes.
Shortage of skills visas, and similar things like H1Bs in the US, are a fraud, unless they are used to deal with short term issues. The only thing there is a long term shortage of is rewards big enough to attract capable people into a field and keep them there.
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Our pay is top notch plus we have the best bonus and pension contribution scheme in the entire industry. The issue is we’re not Facebook or Google and the location isn’t central London and it’s not a trendy startup or big brand name so we have to compete with a lot of companies that tick those boxes.
Our company has resorted to "Shortage of skills Visas" and importing entire families from India. Not something I fully support. It artificially increases the labour force during the boom which can lead to problems when the inevitable bust comes.
Shortage of skills visas, and similar things like H1Bs in the US, are a fraud, unless they are used to deal with short term issues. The only thing there is a long term shortage of is rewards big enough to attract capable people into a field and keep them there.
Those kinds of visas are time limited, so almost by definition can only be used to solve short term issues? (depending on the definition of "short term"... I would say 6 years go pretty quick, in the bigger scheme of things?).
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Those kinds of visas are time limited, so almost by definition can only be used to solve short term issues? (depending on the definition of "short term"... I would say 6 years go pretty quick, in the bigger scheme of things?).
In theory they are time limited. In practice you see some strange behaviours. Some years ago in India there was a thing in the news about the number of chopped up Visa and Mastercards found in the waste bins of major international airports. Investigation of the cause found most of these belonged to people who had just left India on an H1B visa. They had got the card, run it up to its credit limit getting stuff for their new life in the US, and just chopped it up as they left. They had no expectation of ever being forced to return to India and face the consequences of committing fraud, because only those who screwed up badly in the US ever had to return to India.
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Those kinds of visas are time limited, so almost by definition can only be used to solve short term issues? (depending on the definition of "short term"... I would say 6 years go pretty quick, in the bigger scheme of things?).
In theory they are time limited. In practice you see some strange behaviours. Some years ago in India there was a thing in the news about the number of chopped up Visa and Mastercards found in the waste bins of major international airports. Investigation of the cause found most of these belonged to people who had just left India on an H1B visa. They had got the card, run it up to its credit limit getting stuff for their new life in the US, and just chopped it up as they left. They had no expectation of ever being forced to return to India and face the consequences of committing fraud, because only those who screwed up badly in the US ever had to return to India.
Having "enjoyed" an H1B visa myself at one time in the past, I can assure you, it is NOT easy to get an extension - and applying for permanent residence in the USA requires applying from outside the USA! It is not as easy as it looks (and it doesn't look easy!).
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chopped up Visa and Mastercards found in the waste bins of major international airports
I am finding it hard to believe that isn't a dead granny. If you're going to stop using a card, why neatly cut it up at your point of exit? Surely just binning it anywhere would do, leaving it whole would be fine. You might want to keep it 'just in case' too.
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Our company has resorted to "Shortage of skills Visas" and importing entire families from India. Not something I fully support. It artificially increases the labour force during the boom which can lead to problems when the inevitable bust comes.
There are a lot of H1B's from India in software so I've worked with a lot of them. Generally speaking they've been very good, a few duds but that's true of people from anywhere. My problem with the H1B system is the way it is often abused. At a former place I worked with had a guy who was here on a H1B, he'd been in the country for years, had a young daughter who was growing up and going to school here, but I was talking to him one day and found out that his visa was tied to his job at that specific company, if he got let go or quit he would have to either find a new sponsor or go back to India. Now the reason this all came up is that we had a hiring freeze in place but somebody noticed an open position in our group advertised our careers page. So we found out that the company had a fraudulent job listing posted for the position that was already filled by my colleague. We weren't trying to hire somebody to replace him, they had the job listing simply to prove that they were "trying" to find a US citizen to fill the role. All the applications that came in went straight to the trash.
Personally I think the H1B program should be strictly for either temporary help when needed, or a sort of "try before you buy" path to citizenship. If we bring somebody in and they turn out to be a good fit and we want to keep them then I say give them citizenship so they enjoy the same benefits and protections as everyone else. As it stands they are practically an indentured worker, tying their visa to a specific company sponsor means the company can effectively treat them like crap and hold deportation over their head, it's crap.
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I know we have a no new COVID thread rule, so I thought I'd ask this here.
Does anyone think they've had COVID-19?
I'm pretty sure I've had it. Back in mid-March I had a cough, which slowly got worse. People at work started making comments, but I didn't take them seriously, until the team leader told me not to come in the following day. I spent a week off at home, keeping away from others, but still went for a cycle ride every day. The cough went and I called work asking if I could return, but they told me they were closing the company at the end of the week, as we were going into lockdown, so I stayed at home and kept away from others. I then noticed my toes felt sore and were covered in blisters, which turned out to be chilblains and the cleared up with in a week or so. At the time, I didn't think much of it. I thought they were caused by my house being quite chilly, sitting still at the computer and cycling and they cleared up as the weather warmed in spring.
Now I've seen evidence to suggest skin rashes such as chilblains are a common symptom of COVID-19, especially milder cases, which makes me believe I've had COVID-19.
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/skin-rash-should-be-considered-fourth-key-symptom-of-covid (https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/skin-rash-should-be-considered-fourth-key-symptom-of-covid)
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Who cares? If you had a positive test you can assume you had it, if not assume you haven't.
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Who cares? If you had a positive test you can assume you had it, if not assume you haven't.
Good point. Just to be clear, I'm not sure enough that I've had it, that I believe I'm immune and would take any risks. I've just seen my nephews for the first time since lockdown and still kept my distance from them, because they live with their grandparents who are vulnerable.
I'm still interested about whether I've had it though. Unfortunately it's too long ago for an antibody test to confirm it.
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Who cares? If you had a positive test you can assume you had it, if not assume you haven't.
Yes and op top of that you can't be sure you won't get it again. Can I have a Gilles de la Tourette attaque right now? I sure feel like it. Anyway... I'll be going on a holiday shortly. See how that goes in hotels and restaurants. I had to be in Amsterdam today and it is overrun with tourists as usual. Just no Chinese and American people.
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Even if you know for sure that you had it, acting as if you are immune is a dangerous assumption in the case of CV19. That's not yet understood or proven. There are some data points that suggest that either any immunity can be short-lived or that a prior infection can reactivate.
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I think what it comes down to is there are just way too many people. I've watched the population in the area where I live explode throughout my lifetime and tens of thousands more people keep pouring in all the time, I don't even know where they're all coming from. There are far more people than there are nice locations where people want to live, as long as that's the case there will be housing shortages and people priced out of the market. We can't build our way out of this either, the more housing they build and the more affordable they make it, the more people flood in to fill it. It's like where they widen the roads over and over adding lanes and traffic never gets better.
Agreed. It does not help when government is addicted to immigration, like a druggo is addicted to heroin. They are looking for their next hit, a flood of cashed up "refugees" from Hong Kong. This will unfortunately keep housing prices high which the politicians see as a bonus for them personally. Irrespective of this Hong Kong issue, a rich foreigner can purchase permanent residency here legally, but the poor have no such "entitlement". This is shameful policy in this so-called egalitarian country. Our politicians don't give a rats arse about housing affordability. As long as their own nests are feathered.
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Just no Chinese and American people.
There is a loophole in that reality for those that hold the right passport, so you might run into a few.
For example, I know an American-born mother and daughter who have also have Italian citizenship by descent. As it happens, the daughter was planning to move and work in Italy pre-covid...and that's still happening next month. The American ban doesn't affect her at all.
And now that I stop to think, I believe I know a few dozen people living in the US that are also citizens of an EU country. In some cases, legal residents in the USA that don't have US citizenship at all.
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Just no Chinese and American people.
There is a loophole in that reality for those that hold the right passport, so you might run into a few.
Those are not tourists! :palm:
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Even if you know for sure that you had it, acting as if you are immune is a dangerous assumption in the case of CV19. That's not yet understood or proven. There are some data points that suggest that either any immunity can be short-lived or that a prior infection can reactivate.
I'd still feel better knowing I'd already had it, that would suggest that it is not likely to be serious for me if it happens again. Of course nothing is guaranteed. Apparently the tests are not super accurate though, a false positive in the antibody test would be worse than not knowing.
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The Victorian govt in Australia has just announced mask wearing in public is to be compulsory from midnight next Wednesday, else cop a $200 fine. That is great news. Strong authoritarian government is a good thing in the right context. At the other end of the scale we have the USA, which has weak and disunited government with many Americans refusing to wear a mask based upon selfishness and the fantasy of freedom.
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The Victorian govt in Australia has just announced mask wearing in public is to be compulsory from midnight next Wednesday, else cop a $200 fine. That is great news. Strong authoritarian government is a good thing in the right context. At the other end of the scale we have the USA, which has weak and disunited government with many Americans refusing to wear a mask based upon selfishness and the fantasy of freedom.
Which mask are they specifying? If it's N95 then it's silly.
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The Victorian govt in Australia has just announced mask wearing in public is to be compulsory from midnight next Wednesday, else cop a $200 fine. That is great news. Strong authoritarian government is a good thing in the right context. At the other end of the scale we have the USA, which has weak and disunited government with many Americans refusing to wear a mask based upon selfishness and the fantasy of freedom.
Where do you live? We've had a mask fine of $300USD, for a first offence, for a while where I live in California(Far and away the most populous state and significantly higher than all of Australia). I went for a walk today and I was the only person without a mask. It's been that way since before the fine was implemented... How many people do you estimate feel there is no freedom with a mask? I feel fairly confident you don't know what's going on here in America.
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Here in the UK we get a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop next week (but apparently a takeaway is OK since a cabinet member was photographed not wearing one - simpler to change the law than admit to being a dick). Anyway, so masks are going to be mandatory.
Yesterday I was in a local Aldo and maybe half of the patrons wore a mask. Today I was in a local Lidl a no-one wore a mask (well, two: me and the cashier). Depending on where I shopped I could honestly say the (forthcoming) rules were being completely ignored or mostly adhered to. And those shops were less than a mile apart.
I feel fairly confident you don't know what's going on here in America
He might know more than you if he's going from a (reliable) source that sees things country-wide as opposed to you that sees the local view. Certainly, your description doesn't quite mesh with people being murdered for wearing a mask, or the police shooting a man that stabbed someone else because of a difference of view about masks.
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Where do you live? We've had a mask fine of $300USD, for a first offence, for a while where I live in California(Far and away the most populous state and significantly higher than all of Australia). I went for a walk today and I was the only person without a mask. It's been that way since before the fine was implemented... How many people do you estimate feel there is no freedom with a mask? I feel fairly confident you don't know what's going on here in America.
I don't really understand the freedom angle personally. "Freedom" doesn't mean we can all just do whatever the hell we want everywhere at all times. IMHO "Freedom" means you should be able to do whatever you want in your own home or on your own property so long as it doesn't negatively impact others beyond reason. Ok so now the government is forcing you to wear a mask in public because not wearing one has potentially serious consequences to others, they force you to wear pants in public too for similar reasons and have been for as long as the government has existed. Ironically I suspect the most "freedom loving" highly conservative areas would be some of the quickest to punish a person for walking around town in their birthday suit, and the punishment is probably a lot worse than a fine. I don't want to sit on a bus or restaurant seat with a skid mark on it and I don't want to sit next to someone who is potentially sick and not wearing a mask. When a person is at home they're free to go mask-less (and/or pants-less) if they so desire, it's a "free" country. Except people can still go to jail or even prison for engaging in certain activities in their own home. Can't smoke crack, snort a line of coke or many other drugs, not saying that should be allowed but the point is you don't have the freedom to do that in your own home even if you hypothetically do it responsibly. Some states even still have laws that regulate who you sleep with or what activities you engage in within your own bed, freedom, I guess.
So masks? Whatever, I can see the reasoning behind requiring them, people are required to wear a mask for the same reason they're required to stop at stop signs and aren't allowed to shoot guns up into the air in populated areas. The government is just performing their primary duty of protecting the citizens. If wearing a mask was only to protect the wearer then I'd feel differently, we don't need laws to protect everyone from themselves, we need laws to protect everyone from all the people who otherwise can't be bothered to care about anyone else.
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Search youtube Mark Dice Masks
:(
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Here in the UK we get a £100 fine for not wearing a mask in a shop next week (but apparently a takeaway is OK since a cabinet member was photographed not wearing one - simpler to change the law than admit to being a dick). Anyway, so masks are going to be mandatory.
Yesterday I was in a local Aldo and maybe half of the patrons wore a mask. Today I was in a local Lidl a no-one wore a mask (well, two: me and the cashier). Depending on where I shopped I could honestly say the (forthcoming) rules were being completely ignored or mostly adhered to. And those shops were less than a mile apart.
I feel fairly confident you don't know what's going on here in America
He might know more than you if he's going from a (reliable) source that sees things country-wide as opposed to you that sees the local view. Certainly, your description doesn't quite mesh with people being murdered for wearing a mask, or the police shooting a man that stabbed someone else because of a difference of view about masks.
Except what I myself see isn't all there is and I know that. Where as I suspect HAM(sorry on a phone) has very few sources. You also can't look at a couple of stories about crazy people and extrapolate that to mean any significant portion of the country is looking to stab each other over silly things.
I have read very little about people going berserk over masks. If it were a real thing it would be common but even in our(US) biased media there aren't many examples. I also agree freedom doesn't mean do whatever you like and I'm pretty sure most people get that.
Even the people I know who don't want to wear a mask carry one with them if they need it. To really get a good idea you need to scour local media though, not national. National is 100% about ratings and local generally report on many many more individual stories. Of course doing that for say every large city and their smaller papers is not feasible for a normal person. However if I see that as many people are absolute non mask as there are BLM people I'd start to consider it could even be as high as .1% of the country.
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However if I see that as many people are absolute non mask as there are BLM people I'd start to consider it could even be as high as .1% of the country
Seems to be 59% (although that's deffos - only 14% say never and the rest are... who knows):
A Detailed Map of Who Is Wearing Masks in the U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/17/upshot/coronavirus-face-mask-map.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=The%20Upshot)
The map shows broad regional patterns: Mask use is high in the Northeast and the West, and lower in the Plains and parts of the South. But it also shows many fine-grained local differences. Masks are widely worn in the District of Columbia, but there are sections of the suburbs in both Maryland and Virginia where norms seem to be different. In St. Louis and its western suburbs, mask use seems to be high. But across the Missouri River, it falls.
But research from a team that includes Shana Gadarian, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, has found that your political party is a better predictor of mask use than any other factor they measured. Her team compared people of the same age and living in the same ZIP code, and found partisan differences in mask behavior.
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The Victorian govt in Australia has just announced mask wearing in public is to be compulsory from midnight next Wednesday, else cop a $200 fine. That is great news. Strong authoritarian government is a good thing in the right context. At the other end of the scale we have the USA, which has weak and disunited government with many Americans refusing to wear a mask based upon selfishness and the fantasy of freedom.
Where do you live? We've had a mask fine of $300USD, for a first offence, for a while where I live in California(Far and away the most populous state and significantly higher than all of Australia). I went for a walk today and I was the only person without a mask. It's been that way since before the fine was implemented... How many people do you estimate feel there is no freedom with a mask? I feel fairly confident you don't know what's going on here in America.
I probably know more about some aspects of the US that you might not because we have very broad TV and radio media coverage here that goes way beyond just our borders. I have travelled many times to the USA. In fact I lived in Austin, Texas. Your culture which is similar but not the same as ours. There are some subtle differences, but in general we are very much alike.
I live here in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia where the mask law is about to come in. Trumps religious and redneck followers refuse to wear masks at his rallies. A class of fools, without doubt.
As for freedom, just ask the many (mostly black) exonerees who in many states are treated like lepers after exoneration. Blokes who have lost 20 or 30 years of their lives due to corrupt cops, mistaken identity, or prejudicial justice will tell you there is no freedom. The USA has the highest level of incarceration on the planet. And no, we don't have a perfect record here either. In fact, we do not have free speech here, but you do to a much greater extent.
On a lighter note, according to the briliant BBC documentary, "The History of Rock and Roll", the mention of the word "freedom " in lyrics increases the probability of the song being a hit.
The person who says it is dangerous to breath in your own carbon monoxide is going "up there" :palm:...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BrpGoYSKT8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BrpGoYSKT8)
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Ignorance all 'round apparently.
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https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2020/06/17/fauci-masks-n2570789
At the start of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S., federal officials told the public they did not need to wear face masks. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said they only made people feel better but were pretty much pointless.
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As for freedom, just ask the many (mostly black) exonerees who in many states are treated like lepers after exoneration. Blokes who have lost 20 or 30 years of their lives due to corrupt cops, mistaken identity, or prejudicial justice will tell you there is no freedom. The USA has the highest level of incarceration on the planet. And no, we don't have a perfect record here either. In fact, we do not have free speech here, but you do to a much greater extent.
The person who says it is dangerous to breath in your own carbon monoxide is going "up there" :palm:...
You can't fix stupid. Unfortunately a mask only works for to catching outgoing particles. The stupid who are not wearing a mask when mandatory and not adhering to any precautions are more likely to catch Covid-19 and then spread it as well. A while ago someone posted numbers saying that a mask catches over 90% of the outgoing particles but only catches 50% of the incoming (and likely not taking into account you can get particles in your eyes and hands). Now that may sound nice until you start to figure out how to add to probabilities properly. You'd say a mask would catch half of the 10% that a mask is letting through. Wrong! You can't just add probabilities like this because they are related. You have subtract the probability that both probabilities occur at the same time. Now with a 90% probability that an outgoing particle is caught it is clear that using a mask for incoming particles adds very little protection. IOW: you are not wearing a mask to protect yourself but to protect others.
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The effect of masks can be proven just by comparing numbers from China and USA. There must be a factor 100 more virus activity per capita in the US. I think that discussion is over. What Dr. Fauci said and what our German minister of health said in the beginning was the usual western arrogance (and they tried to hide being ill-prepared). I think people in China were much more aware of the risks due to the first SARS outbreak, especially the Chinese government.
Regards, Dieter
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The effect of masks can be proven just by comparing numbers from China and USA. There must be a factor 100 more virus activity per capita in the US. I think that discussion is over. What Dr. Fauci said and what our German minister of health said in the beginning was the usual western arrogance (and they tried to hide being ill-prepared). I think people in China were much more aware of the risks due to the first SARS outbreak, especially the Chinese government.
That is complete nonsense. You can't make a comparison like that. For starters China enforced a much stricter lock-down and offered way better medical care. China nipped the Covid-19 outbreak in the butt where the US failed miserably. You can't put that all on wearing masks. The fact is that many western countries have managed to suppress the Covid-19 outbreak without using masks. There are several downsides of using masks too; the general public may become too relaxed about keeping distance and getting together. Usually you wear a mask to protect against incoming 'threats' but in this case it is the other way around. It is easy for people to get fooled into a false sense of security.
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All these problems of wearing masks did not happen in China. Wearing masks inside closed rooms like shops, offices makes the differences. We did not know that in the beginning, but we know now. The keyword is "Aerosol". And like James_S explained above: A well made, reusable mask has two layers of cotton and it is like socks or trousers. You need like 10 or more to have a fresh one each day and you wash them with your clothes and pass them hot. That's about it.
Of course, if you prefer a complete lockdown over wearing masks, you can stay at home - as long as money lasts.
Regards, Dieter
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All these problems of wearing masks did not happen in China. Wearing masks inside closed rooms like shops, offices makes the differences. We did not know that in the beginning, but we know now. The keyword is "Aerosol". And like James_S explained above: A well made, reusable mask has two layers of cotton and it is like socks or trousers. You need like 10 or more to have a fresh one each day and you wash them with your clothes and pass them hot. That's about it.
Of course, if you prefer a complete lockdown over wearing masks, you can stay at home - as long as money lasts.
Regards, Dieter
Yes, that's true. I support a law enforcing masks in enclosed public spaces such as shops, but would disagree with one mandating them outside, unless it's in a crowd. I wouldn't want to have to wear a mask cycling to work, because there's no risk of me passing it on to anyone. I often see no pedestrians or other cyclists on my journey to work, so all a mask would do is make me more hot and sweaty and harder to breath, once it becomes damp.
Even if you know for sure that you had it, acting as if you are immune is a dangerous assumption in the case of CV19. That's not yet understood or proven. There are some data points that suggest that either any immunity can be short-lived or that a prior infection can reactivate.
I'd still feel better knowing I'd already had it, that would suggest that it is not likely to be serious for me if it happens again. Of course nothing is guaranteed. Apparently the tests are not super accurate though, a false positive in the antibody test would be worse than not knowing.
Unfortunately I didn't get tested and it's too long ago for an antibody test, so I'll never know, unless a quick memory T cell test becomes available. It's possible the cough was the common cold and my chilblains were the result of cycling in cold, wet weather and sitting still in a cool room, for hours on end. Lastly, even if I had it, it's not 100% proven I won't get it again, although it'd would be highly unlikely. Given this level of uncertainty, it would be foolish for me to presume I'm immune and ignore social distancing regulations.
At the moment, the majority of evidence seems to suggest that if someone has had it, they will have some level of immunity so are unlikely to get it again and if they do, the chances are it won't be as bad the next time, as is the case for most viral infections. Now that might not be true. It could be like polio which can come back later, but no other coronaviruses do that, so it seems unlikely. Either way, we need to err on the side of caution.
It's interesting there's less interest in the idea of immunity certificates, than there was a few weeks ago. I believe this is more to do with the fact they would encourage people in low risk groups to deliberately get infected and declared immune, so they'll have greater employment opportunities, than those who haven't had it. Unfortunately there's evidence to suggest the level of exposure also determines the severity of illness, so people who deliberately infect themselves by engaging in highly risky behaviours such as deliberately coughing on one another, kissing and other sexual activity, will become more ill, than those who catch it by picking it up off a supermarket trolley.
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You can't fix stupid. Unfortunately a mask only works for to catching outgoing particles. A while ago someone posted numbers saying that a mask catches over 90% of the outgoing particles but only catches 50% of the incoming...
Panademic makes some shocking barrier protection devices with a high level of silly doping with little resistance. :-DD
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There are several downsides of using masks too; the general public may become too relaxed about keeping distance and getting together. Usually you wear a mask to protect against incoming 'threats' but in this case it is the other way around. It is easy for people to get fooled into a false sense of security.
Around here, I see people who wear masks being more cautious, not less... it's a constant reminder of the need to keep away from other people. (Then there's the fact that the non-mask wearers are idiots.)
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This guy seems convinced, and has supporting data.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgJ8_K6WCiw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgJ8_K6WCiw)
Moderator note: it is assumed that this is posted tongue in cheek as this is yet another sudo science juncky that YouTube seem to have trouble banning.
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There are several downsides of using masks too; the general public may become too relaxed about keeping distance and getting together. Usually you wear a mask to protect against incoming 'threats' but in this case it is the other way around. It is easy for people to get fooled into a false sense of security.
Around here, I see people who wear masks being more cautious, not less... it's a constant reminder of the need to keep away from other people. (Then there's the fact that the non-mask wearers are idiots.)
On the other hand, it could be argued that those who are more likely to wear masks will be those who are more cautious.
I can see your point though. I probably would remember social distancing more, if people wore masks, although I might become desensitised after awhile. It's not always easy to predict, even ones own behaviour.
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If I wear a mask people keep away from me, which is what i want! I expect the effect will wear off though.
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Just upgrade your mask and it’s sorted
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07GS7KC77/ (https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07GS7KC77/)
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However if I see that as many people are absolute non mask as there are BLM people I'd start to consider it could even be as high as .1% of the country
Seems to be 59% (although that's deffos - only 14% say never and the rest are... who knows):
A Detailed Map of Who Is Wearing Masks in the U.S. (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/17/upshot/coronavirus-face-mask-map.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=The%20Upshot)
The map shows broad regional patterns: Mask use is high in the Northeast and the West, and lower in the Plains and parts of the South. But it also shows many fine-grained local differences. Masks are widely worn in the District of Columbia, but there are sections of the suburbs in both Maryland and Virginia where norms seem to be different. In St. Louis and its western suburbs, mask use seems to be high. But across the Missouri River, it falls.
But research from a team that includes Shana Gadarian, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, has found that your political party is a better predictor of mask use than any other factor they measured. Her team compared people of the same age and living in the same ZIP code, and found partisan differences in mask behavior.
So you're quoting this on some lousy polls? You realize those aren't going to be accurate, don't you? The question also had nothing to do with whether they would, only if they did(you don't have to in some areas and if you don't have to I wouldn't be surprised you didn't). That doesn't mean you're ANTI mask. Only certain people even take part in these polls(I'm one of them). I think one telling issue is a lack of links to the actual data. YouGov usually releases results I can't say that's true of dynata though. YouGov said it was 1507 people that responded in a country of 330M and these results are pretty typical of polling(Don't forget Hillary Clinton also polled very well). One bit of data said they counted people at a grocery store in Wisconsin(oddly enough what I'd consider the most reliable data, even if terribly localized)... If you're going to trust these numbers I couldn't possibly reason with you. Some areas you'll find people aren't worried at all because it's not even affecting their area. You can argue those types of people should wear a mask when going out but I definitely wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. The best I think you could do is looking at individual areas since they'll be more regular with their standards. Polling without any regularities in local rules, laws, and actual covid impact is silly when your sample size is ridiculously low.
For masks... Even some of my family members(JPL engineers included) think their paper masks are going to protect them. It's difficult to convince them otherwise.
Just upgrade your mask and it’s sorted
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07GS7KC77/ (https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07GS7KC77/)
My Dad had worn a proper full face gas mask with cartridge filters(uses it for work) and the security at the post office stopped to question him. Before they told him he wasn't allowed there without a mask. At the time he needed to post something but only had the one mask. Trying times...
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My Dad had worn a proper full face gas mask with cartridge filters(uses it for work) and the security at the post office stopped to question him. Before they told him he wasn't allowed there without a mask. At the time he needed to post something but only had the one mask. Trying times...
And likely that mask has a vent to let air out while bypassing the filters :palm:
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Just upgrade your mask and it’s sorted
but expect a visit from the police,even though no laws are being broken
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-52456180 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-52456180)
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I’d probably ask them to leave. Wouldn’t be the first time.
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My Dad had worn a proper full face gas mask with cartridge filters(uses it for work) and the security at the post office stopped to question him. Before they told him he wasn't allowed there without a mask. At the time he needed to post something but only had the one mask. Trying times...
And likely that mask has a vent to let air out while bypassing the filters :palm:
It has a particulate filter for the exhaust. If I lived near him I'd get the number for you but it's a 4 hour ride there and back.
EDIT:
I know this will make some of you happy:
https://nypost.com/2020/07/19/kentucky-couple-who-wont-self-quarantine-put-under-house-arrest/
House arrest and ankle bracelets for not signing self-quarantine order.
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My Dad had worn a proper full face gas mask with cartridge filters(uses it for work) and the security at the post office stopped to question him. Before they told him he wasn't allowed there without a mask. At the time he needed to post something but only had the one mask. Trying times...
And likely that mask has a vent to let air out while bypassing the filters :palm:
It has a particulate filter for the exhaust.
That is better than expected!
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[attachimg=1]
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Why didn't they just shoot it?
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Just upgrade your mask and it’s sorted
but expect a visit from the police,even though no laws are being broken
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-52456180 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-52456180)
It's worse round here, a pretty Estonian girl is knocking on doors trying to sell tutoring services for children and the local forum (nextdoor.co.uk) is going wild with accusations of it's illegal to door knock, why isn't she wearing a mask (unlike the thousands of delivery drivers that don't), be careful, they (they group she is part of doing this) have been to america and so on, just because she is no british.
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It's worse round here, a pretty Estonian girl is knocking on doors trying to sell tutoring services for children and the local forum (nextdoor.co.uk) is going wild with accusations of it's illegal to door knock, why isn't she wearing a mask (unlike the thousands of delivery drivers that don't), be careful, they (they group she is part of doing this) have been to america and so on, just because she is no british.
The delivery drivers around here don't wear masks, but there is no particular reason they should. They are putting our packages on the doorstep, pressing the door bell, stepping back a few metres and waiting for us to open the door. They aren't getting us to sign for anything. They just don't get near us at all.
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Driving or exercising with a mask, especially if N95, is a mistake. I recall seeing quite a few references showing lower oxygen levels on a person with a mask. That and a few lethal accidents where the driver passed out while wearing a mask.
It is summer here and the use of a mask outside is very noticeable. For the delivery drivers and their open trucks (no AC), I think it would be a very dangerous combination.
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Driving or exercising with a mask, especially if N95, is a mistake. I recall seeing quite a few references showing lower oxygen levels on a person with a mask. That and a few lethal accidents where the driver passed out while wearing a mask.
Who are you, Nino Vitale?
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Driving or exercising with a mask, especially if N95, is a mistake. I recall seeing quite a few references showing lower oxygen levels on a person with a mask. That and a few lethal accidents where the driver passed out while wearing a mask.
It is summer here and the use of a mask outside is very noticeable. For the delivery drivers and their open trucks (no AC), I think it would be a very dangerous combination.
masks do not block the airflow that much and are you seriously saying that a mask that was produced for ones safety and passed the standards is dangerous? grow up! N95 masks are also a waste of time unless your a doctor or otherwise bio-hazard trained. I have a dust mask for working in my loft with twin filters and it does not restrict breathing at all. Workers in hazardous environments like asbestos removal wear these a lot and no one to date has died of it!
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It's worse round here, a pretty Estonian girl is knocking on doors trying to sell tutoring services for children and the local forum (nextdoor.co.uk) is going wild with accusations of it's illegal to door knock, why isn't she wearing a mask (unlike the thousands of delivery drivers that don't), be careful, they (they group she is part of doing this) have been to america and so on, just because she is no british.
The delivery drivers around here don't wear masks, but there is no particular reason they should. They are putting our packages on the doorstep, pressing the door bell, stepping back a few metres and waiting for us to open the door. They aren't getting us to sign for anything. They just don't some near us at all.
They do collections too
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It's worse round here, a pretty Estonian girl is knocking on doors trying to sell tutoring services for children and the local forum (nextdoor.co.uk) is going wild with accusations of it's illegal to door knock, why isn't she wearing a mask (unlike the thousands of delivery drivers that don't), be careful, they (they group she is part of doing this) have been to america and so on, just because she is no british.
The delivery drivers around here don't wear masks, but there is no particular reason they should. They are putting our packages on the doorstep, pressing the door bell, stepping back a few metres and waiting for us to open the door. They aren't getting us to sign for anything. They just don't some near us at all.
They do collections too
Sure, but they are handling these in a similar way. "Please madame, put the package on the ground. Step back. Do NOT approach the package. We will handle this situation.". Out comes the sterilising spray gun.
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They don’t. Neither my Hermes or UPS guys bother with that. Hand it person to person.
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It varies and they are under pressure. In my case they stand well back, they are practically turning to leave when I open the door and just want quick confirmation of my name.
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Driving or exercising with a mask, especially if N95, is a mistake. I recall seeing quite a few references showing lower oxygen levels on a person with a mask. That and a few lethal accidents where the driver passed out while wearing a mask.
It is summer here and the use of a mask outside is very noticeable. For the delivery drivers and their open trucks (no AC), I think it would be a very dangerous combination.
This has be debunked about 1000 times.
The videos people are putting up to show it depletes oxygen levels are measuring the exhaled air.
If your air goes in at 20% O2 and comes back out at 20% O2 you are... well... dead.
Thus it is perfectly normal for air to go in at 20% O2 and come back out at around 18.5% O2.
Even the concentration of air trapped behind the mask rising in CO2 concentration and dropping in O2 concentration is a bit dumb to consider. You breath well over a litre of air each breath, the handful of cm3 of air behind the mask will not cause any issues.
Go and watch the dozens of videos of doctors, nurses and fitness specialists testing this with Blood O2 saturation meters on people, themselves and on athelites on tread mills wearing masks.
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for 30 quid you can buy an oximeter that is put on your finger, prove it for yourself if you have to
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It has some validity outside the described conditions. You have to breath more often and harder with a respirator to maintain o2 sats. This is an issue with various conditions that affect lung capacity. Normal healthy folk, non issue.
But you know, those folk should be shielding.
Masks, not so much of an issue.
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It's a problem for a small number of people who should not be going out at all, and that is not even where the theory started, it started from dumb retards who can't think straight with or without a suffocating mask and all the oxygen they need.
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It's a problem for a small number of people who should not be going out at all, and that is not even where the theory started, it started from dumb retards who can't think straight with or without a suffocating mask and all the oxygen they need.
I think we should tell them that the only reason these masks are proposed is that the Bill Gates, 5G can get through them. They should instead use a plastic bag over the mouth and nose or better yet cover their hole head in tinfoil and seal it up with tight tape round their neck.
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It's a problem for a small number of people who should not be going out at all, and that is not even where the theory started, it started from dumb retards who can't think straight with or without a suffocating mask and all the oxygen they need.
I think we should tell them that the only reason these masks are proposed is that the Bill Gates, 5G can get through them. They should instead use a plastic bag over the mouth and nose or better yet cover their hole head in tinfoil and seal it up with tight tape round their neck.
I don't think we are far away from seeing tactics like this coming into use - a bit like a mother "managing" an obstinate child...
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It has some validity outside the described conditions. You have to breath more often and harder with a respirator to maintain o2 sats. This is an issue with various conditions that affect lung capacity. Normal healthy folk, non issue.
But you know, those folk should be shielding.
Masks, not so much of an issue.
It's a problem for a small number of people who should not be going out at all, and that is not even where the theory started, it started from dumb retards who can't think straight with or without a suffocating mask and all the oxygen they need.
If the mask gets too damp, then it will become harder to breathe, but it should be changed by then.
I agree, anyone who can't wear a mask, due to an underlying health problem should stay in, but if they must go shopping, they should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask, or scarf. There's no excuse for not wearing a face covering.
I wonder if motorcycle helmets are an acceptable face covering? Shops have tended to deny those wearing them entry, for security reasons, but a helmet, with screen and visor, will provide good protection both against spreading and contracting COVID-19, so should be acceptable. When the law comes into force, I'll try wearing a motocycle helmet in my local shop. If I really wanted to shoplift, I'd disguise myself as a Muslim woman, rather than wear a helmet.
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
I can't explain, since unlike some, I'm not so smug to consider myself an expert following a twitter visit. ;)
Go to a Men's Shed or similar and operate a metal grinder. Learn the power of hard protection.
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
As with any form of protection, it needs to be approprately fitted and depends on the person using it properly.
Nothing is certain with CV19 and opinions vary considerably, but after Googling for a bit, the consensus seems to be: a visor appears to provide more protection for the user, than a mask, but isn't as effective at preventing the user spreading the virus. It helps to protect the wearer's eyes from virus-laden droplets and should also reduce spread to some degree by reducing the momentum of a cough or sneeze, but the bottom is still open, so some of it will fall onto objects below.
Ideally people should wear both a visor and a mask, but if someone can't wear the mask, then they should wear a visor. I would think a long visor, extending well below the chin and a scarf around the neck, to fill the gap, even if it doesn't cover the face, would also provide more protection to others, by stopping droplets from falling on surfaces below.
I think my motorcycle helmet will protect me more than a mask and should also do a decent job of preventing me spread it, as it's well-fitted and there's some fabrick under the chin. Lots of this seems to be common sense.
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
As with any form of protection, it needs to be approprately fitted and depends on the person using it properly.
Nothing is certain with CV19 and opinions vary considerably, but after Googling for a bit, the consensus seems to be: a visor appears to provide more protection for the user, than a mask, but isn't as effective at preventing the user spreading the virus. It helps to protect the wearer's eyes from virus-laden droplets and should also reduce spread to some degree by reducing the momentum of a cough or sneeze, but the bottom is still open, so some of it will fall onto objects below.
Ideally people should wear both a visor and a mask, but if someone can't wear the mask, then they should wear a visor. I would think a long visor, extending well below the chin and a scarf around the neck, to fill the gap, even if it doesn't cover the face, would also provide more protection to others, by stopping droplets from falling on surfaces below.
I think my motorcycle helmet will protect me more than a mask and should also do a decent job of preventing me spread it, as it's well-fitted and there's some fabrick under the chin. Lots of this seems to be common sense.
It all depends how you keep your hands away from these barriers.
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
As with any form of protection, it needs to be approprately fitted and depends on the person using it properly.
Nothing is certain with CV19 and opinions vary considerably, but after Googling for a bit, the consensus seems to be: a visor appears to provide more protection for the user, than a mask, but isn't as effective at preventing the user spreading the virus. It helps to protect the wearer's eyes from virus-laden droplets and should also reduce spread to some degree by reducing the momentum of a cough or sneeze, but the bottom is still open, so some of it will fall onto objects below.
Ideally people should wear both a visor and a mask, but if someone can't wear the mask, then they should wear a visor. I would think a long visor, extending well below the chin and a scarf around the neck, to fill the gap, even if it doesn't cover the face, would also provide more protection to others, by stopping droplets from falling on surfaces below.
I think my motorcycle helmet will protect me more than a mask and should also do a decent job of preventing me spread it, as it's well-fitted and there's some fabrick under the chin. Lots of this seems to be common sense.
It all depends how you keep your hands away from these barriers.
A visor should do a better job of preventing someone from touching their face, than a mask, which will harbour the virus, when it becomes damp.
I'm not sure if that makes that much difference though. It's true, people touching their mouthes and noses helps spred the virus and was originally believed to be the main mode of transmission, but now droplets suspended in the air is thought to be more likely.
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
As with any form of protection, it needs to be approprately fitted and depends on the person using it properly.
Nothing is certain with CV19 and opinions vary considerably, but after Googling for a bit, the consensus seems to be: a visor appears to provide more protection for the user, than a mask, but isn't as effective at preventing the user spreading the virus. It helps to protect the wearer's eyes from virus-laden droplets and should also reduce spread to some degree by reducing the momentum of a cough or sneeze, but the bottom is still open, so some of it will fall onto objects below.
Ideally people should wear both a visor and a mask, but if someone can't wear the mask, then they should wear a visor. I would think a long visor, extending well below the chin and a scarf around the neck, to fill the gap, even if it doesn't cover the face, would also provide more protection to others, by stopping droplets from falling on surfaces below.
I think my motorcycle helmet will protect me more than a mask and should also do a decent job of preventing me spread it, as it's well-fitted and there's some fabrick under the chin. Lots of this seems to be common sense.
It all depends how you keep your hands away from these barriers.
A visor should do a better job of preventing someone from touching their face, than a mask, which will harbour the virus, when it becomes damp.
I'm not sure if that makes that much difference though. It's true, people touching their mouthes and noses helps spred the virus and was originally believed to be the main mode of transmission, but now droplets suspended in the air is thought to be more likely.
You touch the outside of the visor to lift it up. The first thing you do is rub yer nose. Bingo.
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I wonder if motorcycle helmets are an acceptable face covering? Shops have tended to deny those wearing them entry, for security reasons, but a helmet, with screen and visor, will provide good protection both against spreading and contracting COVID-19, so should be acceptable.
We already have mask laws here and the couple of times I've been places I haven't taken my helmet(with chin curtain installed) off and I haven't had any problems. Nobody says anything. However, when I took a walk with my kids without a mask(it was an impromptu walk when we were already playing outside our home) I walked by the police station and parked police cars with police inside and nobody said anything then either. I guess it depends on how strongly enforced it all is. If they go full authoritarian you'll probably need a mask with your head isolated in a helmet.
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Learn the power of hard protection
Floating aerosols aren't even a little bit like shit thrown off a grinder or whatever. Would a visor be OK to stop your lungs filling with sawdust? Of course not.
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It helps to protect the wearer's eyes from virus-laden droplets
That was my initial thought, and why medical professionals wear them, and why they are a useful additions to masks. But my puzzlement is where they are used on their own - airflow is just going to go around the sides.
I think my motorcycle helmet will protect me more than a mask
Would it protect you from sawdust in a workshop? Briefly, I would suggest.
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Rather than fantasy: When you pass by a lady and sense her perfume, you know she may have infected you. That is the meaning of "aerosol". Now you have a simple test for whatever you want to use.
Glasses are useful for checking how air-proof the mask is around the nose. The masks my wife made have a strong metal wire to keep the gaps closed that tend to form on both sides of the nose. That was my contribution..
Regards, Dieter
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Another factor is viral dose.
For other viruses it is not generally sufficient to only get 1 or 2 viral particles to cause an infection. It is not known if SARS-CoV-2 is different, but it seems unlikely. You need to get a relatively moderate dose in order to enable the infection to spread. And, if you get a smaller dose, you are more likely to experience a milder illness. The theory here is that the virus has to spend longer in the body before it spreads to a more critical mass, by which time the immune system has time to fight it off. If you have a much larger dose, which has sadly happened to many healthcare workers without adequate PPE, then the virus hits you hard and fast, before your immune system has time to respond.
And this is where the mask helps - even if you are not completely shielded from the virus, it significantly reduces the chances of you getting a serious dose, and it also reduces asymptomatic spread.
WHO has a lot of questions to answer over why they advised against masks though.
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WHO has a lot of questions to answer over why they advised against masks though.
I think that's obvious. It was not known at the time whether masks were going to be of much benefit to people on the street, but they did know that there was a struggle to get enough masks and other PPE for vital healthcare workers. If you can't get enough for healthcare workers then the last thing you want is people hoarding masks and wearing them around needlessly.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRD-9-STnvQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRD-9-STnvQ)
:-+
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
As with any form of protection, it needs to be approprately fitted and depends on the person using it properly.
Nothing is certain with CV19 and opinions vary considerably, but after Googling for a bit, the consensus seems to be: a visor appears to provide more protection for the user, than a mask, but isn't as effective at preventing the user spreading the virus. It helps to protect the wearer's eyes from virus-laden droplets and should also reduce spread to some degree by reducing the momentum of a cough or sneeze, but the bottom is still open, so some of it will fall onto objects below.
Ideally people should wear both a visor and a mask, but if someone can't wear the mask, then they should wear a visor. I would think a long visor, extending well below the chin and a scarf around the neck, to fill the gap, even if it doesn't cover the face, would also provide more protection to others, by stopping droplets from falling on surfaces below.
I think my motorcycle helmet will protect me more than a mask and should also do a decent job of preventing me spread it, as it's well-fitted and there's some fabrick under the chin. Lots of this seems to be common sense.
It all depends how you keep your hands away from these barriers.
A visor should do a better job of preventing someone from touching their face, than a mask, which will harbour the virus, when it becomes damp.
I'm not sure if that makes that much difference though. It's true, people touching their mouthes and noses helps spred the virus and was originally believed to be the main mode of transmission, but now droplets suspended in the air is thought to be more likely.
You touch the outside of the visor to lift it up. The first thing you do is rub yer nose. Bingo.
But that's not something one would do unconsciously. The visor will mean it takes more effort to touch ones face, so it would reduce the frequency them doing it.
It helps to protect the wearer's eyes from virus-laden droplets
That was my initial thought, and why medical professionals wear them, and why they are a useful additions to masks. But my puzzlement is where they are used on their own - airflow is just going to go around the sides.
But it will protect against a direct hit to the face, which is more important. Imagine someone squirting you in the face, with a water pistol. You'll get much more water in your eyes and mouth without a visor, than you would if you wore one.
I think my motorcycle helmet will protect me more than a mask
Would it protect you from sawdust in a workshop? Briefly, I would suggest.
I'd suspect the helmet I have would provide quite a bit of protection against sawdust, for an extended period. It would certainly reduce the level of exposure.
Another factor is viral dose.
For other viruses it is not generally sufficient to only get 1 or 2 viral particles to cause an infection. It is not known if SARS-CoV-2 is different, but it seems unlikely. You need to get a relatively moderate dose in order to enable the infection to spread. And, if you get a smaller dose, you are more likely to experience a milder illness. The theory here is that the virus has to spend longer in the body before it spreads to a more critical mass, by which time the immune system has time to fight it off. If you have a much larger dose, which has sadly happened to many healthcare workers without adequate PPE, then the virus hits you hard and fast, before your immune system has time to respond.
And this is where the mask helps - even if you are not completely shielded from the virus, it significantly reduces the chances of you getting a serious dose, and it also reduces asymptomatic spread.
WHO has a lot of questions to answer over why they advised against masks though.
Exactly. Getting infected isn't binary.
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<Anonymous YouTube link>
:-+
Neat! Took you about 10 seconds to post that, and in return you expect me (not to mention everyone else) to waste more than 5 minutes viewing it. But it's worth it because... well, why?
What is it about?
What point is he going to make?
Who the hell is he?
Why should his opinion on whatever it is be relevant or meaningful?
Assuming all the above are attention-grabbing, why do we have to waste 5 minutes watching a video to understand whatever it is he's wibbling on about instead of, say, you posting a 3-line precis we can cover in a few seconds. Oh, that's right, it would waste your time rather than ours.
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<Anonymous YouTube link>
:-+
Neat! Took you about 10 seconds to post that, and in return you expect me (not to mention everyone else) to waste more than 5 minutes viewing it. But it's worth it because... well, why?
What is it about?
What point is he going to make?
Who the hell is he?
Why should his opinion on whatever it is be relevant or meaningful?
Assuming all the above are attention-grabbing, why do we have to waste 5 minutes watching a video to understand whatever it is he's wibbling on about instead of, say, you posting a 3-line precis we can cover in a few seconds. Oh, that's right, it would waste your time rather than ours.
It's not a tutorial on how to mince words, I can tell you that much.
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Why are most assuming that wearing a mask is about protecting the wearer from infection? When it is far more important in preventing the wearer potentially spreading the virus...
Your "risk" isn't entirely down to your actions, a fair chunk of it is how others behave, and likewise, their risk, is at least partly down to your behavior.
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Why are most assuming that wearing a mask is about protecting the wearer from infection?
Because protecting others from oneself is an alien concept1. At least, if it involves any more than slight hassle it is. Given that, why else would anyone wear one but to protect themselves? Ergo, masks protect the wearer.
Add to that the fact that masks are normally seen in medical establishments, and the assumption there has to be it protects the medical professionals. So, masks obviously protect the wearer.
Which they do, of course. The real question is: by how much. It might not be very much at all, but every little helps :)
[1] Thought experiment: you've been notified that you were associated with someone who subsequently tested positive. The correct thing to do is to self-isolate for 10 days, but doing so will cause you serious aggro - you won't get paid and you might lose your job because of the time off. Do you, nevertheless, self-isolate or justify not doing that because you feel fine and promise to hold your breath when speaking to anyone anyway?
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Easy for me I'm not allowed to work anyway. I also wear R95 masks that fit so should have both way protection. I get tested soon for COVID since I need a negative result to get VO2 max so time will tell if it has worked(or if I haven't been around enough people with COVID).
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I wonder if motorcycle helmets are an acceptable face covering? Shops have tended to deny those wearing them entry, for security reasons, but a helmet, with screen and visor, will provide good protection both against spreading and contracting COVID-19, so should be acceptable.
We already have mask laws here and the couple of times I've been places I haven't taken my helmet(with chin curtain installed) off and I haven't had any problems. Nobody says anything. However, when I took a walk with my kids without a mask(it was an impromptu walk when we were already playing outside our home) I walked by the police station and parked police cars with police inside and nobody said anything then either. I guess it depends on how strongly enforced it all is. If they go full authoritarian you'll probably need a mask with your head isolated in a helmet.
It might also depend on the situation. There's little point in wearing a mask outside, unless it's crowded, but it's more important indoors. I don't wear one outside and the law which is going to come into force at the end of the week, in the UK, will only apply to shops. If mask wearing outdoors, as well as indoors, is compulsory where you live, they're probably less likely to enforce it outside, especially if you're not in a crowd.
Why are most assuming that wearing a mask is about protecting the wearer from infection?
Because protecting others from oneself is an alien concept1. At least, if it involves any more than slight hassle it is. Given that, why else would anyone wear one but to protect themselves? Ergo, masks protect the wearer.
Add to that the fact that masks are normally seen in medical establishments, and the assumption there has to be it protects the medical professionals. So, masks obviously protect the wearer.
Which they do, of course. The real question is: by how much. It might not be very much at all, but every little helps :)
I think most people are aware that face coverings are to protect others, rather than the wearer.
Medical professionals don't wear surgical masks to protect themselves, but their patients.
[1] Thought experiment: you've been notified that you were associated with someone who subsequently tested positive. The correct thing to do is to self-isolate for 10 days, but doing so will cause you serious aggro - you won't get paid and you might lose your job because of the time off. Do you, nevertheless, self-isolate or justify not doing that because you feel fine and promise to hold your breath when speaking to anyone anyway?
Fortunately that's not the case for me, as I'd get sick pay, but it is for many people. Attitudes also change. If you'd asked me that four months ago, I would have said no. I only self-isolated when I got a cought before lockdown, because my team leader told me not to come in the following day. Now I would still self-isolate, even if I lost a considerable amount of money, because I know it's the right thing to do.
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I think most people are aware that face coverings are to protect others, rather than the wearer.
Well, no. The issues arise because they don't realise that.
Medical professionals don't wear surgical masks to protect themselves, but their patients.
Yes, indeed, but my point was that people don't realise that, thus they must be protection for the wearer.
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I think most people are aware that face coverings are to protect others, rather than the wearer.
Well, no. The issues arise because they don't realise that.
Medical professionals don't wear surgical masks to protect themselves, but their patients.
Yes, indeed, but my point was that people don't realise that, thus they must be protection for the wearer.
I don't think either of us can really speak for most people, because from our perspective, who most people are, will depend on who we are around most of the time. Opinion polls and questionnaires are better sources of information about what most people think, but are still not perfect.
Assuming you're right that most people think masks are mostly to protect the wearer, how is that a bad thing? If it encourages people to wear them and they help stop the spread, it's still a good thing.
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Assuming you're right that most people think masks are mostly to protect the wearer, how is that a bad thing?
Because then you get people feeling fully justified in saying they're prepared to risk catching whatever because they just don't like masks, can't breathe, makes them look girly, whatever.
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Put simply, if you use public transport, you'll realise just how disgusting your fellow travellers are. Oi mate, do you really need to lower your face mask, lick your sticky fingers and then hold the strap? What, because that's what you always did before you had to wear a facemask?
Wearing gloves and using hand sanitiser is recommended at the best of times. Face masks will not only make you a good citizen, but protect you from the morons who still don't or, just cannot be bothered to get it.
What is more worrying is that public transport operators are now sanitising their fleets to keep them safe... so what the hell were they doing before coronavirus? I already know the answer :-//
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Put simply, if you use public transport, you'll realise just how disgusting your fellow travellers are. Oi mate, do you really need to lower your face mask, lick your sticky fingers and then hold the strap? What, because that's what you always did before you had to wear a facemask?
Wearing gloves and using hand sanitiser is recommended at the best of times. Face masks will not only make you a good citizen, but protect you from the morons who still don't or, just cannot be bothered to get it.
What is more worrying is that public transport operators are now sanitising their fleets to keep them safe... so what the hell were they doing before coronavirus? I already know the answer :-//
They were "saving money" by not cleaning anything.
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What is more worrying is that public transport operators are now sanitising their fleets to keep them safe... so what the hell were they doing before coronavirus?
If you want to know what 10 years of accumulated grime minus 10 years of the cleaning effect of just using something, and rubbing away the grime, looks like, look at a 10 year old bus that hasn't been used since February. :)
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What is more worrying is that public transport operators are now sanitising their fleets to keep them safe... so what the hell were they doing before coronavirus?
If you want to know what 10 years of accumulated grime minus 10 years of the cleaning effect of just using something, and rubbing away the grime, looks like, look at a 10 year old bus that hasn't been used since February. :)
I can smell the mould... are those mushrooms growing on the back seat?
An issue with socially distanced seating is people are being forced to sit in the same seat as everyone else... Just use the car.
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Assuming you're right that most people think masks are mostly to protect the wearer, how is that a bad thing?
Because then you get people feeling fully justified in saying they're prepared to risk catching whatever because they just don't like masks, can't breathe, makes them look girly, whatever.
I was nieve. I didn't think people could be that stupid. Even so, any fool should be able to see that if they catch it, they'll probably be fine, but the poor old sod they infect might not be so lucky. Unfortunately we need to have laws to protect people from their own stupidity: seatbelts being a prime example.What is more worrying is that public transport operators are now sanitising their fleets to keep them safe... so what the hell were they doing before coronavirus?
If you want to know what 10 years of accumulated grime minus 10 years of the cleaning effect of just using something, and rubbing away the grime, looks like, look at a 10 year old bus that hasn't been used since February. :)
When I was child I took the bus to school. Before I got off, many of my peers would whack the bus seats, which would fill the bus with dust, smelling of vomit and stale cigarette smoke. I remember the driver complaining on one occasion and a child told him to clean the bloody bus, if he didn't like it.
What is more worrying is that public transport operators are now sanitising their fleets to keep them safe... so what the hell were they doing before coronavirus?
If you want to know what 10 years of accumulated grime minus 10 years of the cleaning effect of just using something, and rubbing away the grime, looks like, look at a 10 year old bus that hasn't been used since February. :)
I can smell the mould... are those mushrooms growing on the back seat?
An issue with socially distanced seating is people are being forced to sit in the same seat as everyone else... Just use the car.
The school bus used to have a thick layer of mould growing on the rubber window seals, which weren't replaced, when they perished. My brother and sister used to play corners which involved moving next to the window, when the bus went round a corner. One day a window fell out. Fortunately no one was hurt, especially as this was on the top deck.
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The school bus used to have a thick layer of mould growing on the rubber window seals, which weren't replaced, when they perished. My brother and sister used to play corners which involved moving next to the window, when the bus went round a corner. One day a window fell out. Fortunately no one was hurt, especially as this was on the top deck.
This is British school buildings and equipment in a nutshell. They spend lots acquiring and building them, but think they need no budget for upkeep.
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
Yes, it's bollocks:
https://www.insider.com/face-shields-did-not-protect-people-from-coronavirus-swiss-outbreak-2020-7 (https://www.insider.com/face-shields-did-not-protect-people-from-coronavirus-swiss-outbreak-2020-7)
A health department in Switzerland is now warning against wearing plastic face shields without a mask after a recent outbreak in which those wearing only shields were infected with coronavirus, while people wearing masks were fine.
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Just use the car.
And those who cant drive due to medical or financial reasons ?
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should wear a visor, which provides more COVID-19 protection than a surgical mask
I noticed that many people wear these visors instead of masks, often at an angle such that it barely comes level with their chin, and wonder how on earth that's providing any protection for the wearer or whoever they are projectile-breathing at. Can you explain?
Yes, it's bollocks:
https://www.insider.com/face-shields-did-not-protect-people-from-coronavirus-swiss-outbreak-2020-7 (https://www.insider.com/face-shields-did-not-protect-people-from-coronavirus-swiss-outbreak-2020-7)
A health department in Switzerland is now warning against wearing plastic face shields without a mask after a recent outbreak in which those wearing only shields were infected with coronavirus, while people wearing masks were fine.
Oh, so it looks like visors don't provide as much protection as I origionally thought. It also implies masks provide more protection for the wearer, than I thought too. I'm happy to admit I'm wrong about this.
I'll wear both a mask and visor then. Actually I think I'll skip the visor and wear some goggles, which will easilly fit in my bag.
I wonder if a scarf wrapped round the neck, to fill the gap around the visor would have helped? It might be more comfortable, than a face covering and offer a similar level of protection.
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Oh, so it looks like visors don't provide as much protection as I origionally thought. It also implies masks provide more protection for the wearer, than I thought too. I'm happy to admit I'm wrong about this.
Visors provide a high degree of protection, but not from breath. Dentists have been wearing them since AIDS first appeared, to catch spray from working on a patient's mouth. When you look at the amount of spray they catch, its surprising dentists didn't always wear these things just to keep clean. Nurses and other medical people have been wearing them for years, because again they are at risk from spray coming from patients during procedures.
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I wonder if motorcycle helmets are an acceptable face covering? Shops have tended to deny those wearing them entry, for security reasons, but a helmet, with screen and visor, will provide good protection both against spreading and contracting COVID-19, so should be acceptable.
We already have mask laws here and the couple of times I've been places I haven't taken my helmet(with chin curtain installed) off and I haven't had any problems. Nobody says anything. However, when I took a walk with my kids without a mask(it was an impromptu walk when we were already playing outside our home) I walked by the police station and parked police cars with police inside and nobody said anything then either. I guess it depends on how strongly enforced it all is. If they go full authoritarian you'll probably need a mask with your head isolated in a helmet.
It might also depend on the situation. There's little point in wearing a mask outside, unless it's crowded, but it's more important indoors. I don't wear one outside and the law which is going to come into force at the end of the week, in the UK, will only apply to shops. If mask wearing outdoors, as well as indoors, is compulsory where you live, they're probably less likely to enforce it outside, especially if you're not in a crowd.
I was actually indoors. One time I had to get some brake fluid from the auto parts store, one time I had to get kids tylenol from the pharmacy, and another I had to go to the grocery store I don't even remember what I got. The rest of the times I was going to the bank.
I actually think an R\N95 mask and safety glasses with a foam gasket(often used with motorcycles so your eyes don't dry out) are pretty reasonable protection assuming you don't go home, take your stuff off, and pick your nose or teeth. Of course you can't buy those masks right now(around here anyway). I just hope we can get through this before I lose my house.
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Actually I think I'll skip the visor and wear some goggles
That would get my vote too since, as you say, they are more easily stored and carried.
I wonder if a scarf wrapped round the neck
My understanding is it depends. Typically, no, because you want more than one layer and each layer to be a different weave. Ideally with a non-woven layer sandwiched, too.
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Oh, so it looks like visors don't provide as much protection as I origionally thought. It also implies masks provide more protection for the wearer, than I thought too. I'm happy to admit I'm wrong about this.
Visors provide a high degree of protection, but not from breath. Dentists have been wearing them since AIDS first appeared, to catch spray from working on a patient's mouth. When you look at the amount of spray they catch, its surprising dentists didn't always wear these things just to keep clean. Nurses and other medical people have been wearing them for years, because again they are at risk from spray coming from patients during procedures.
Yes that's all true and whether a visor protects against COVID-19 or not, depends on the main mode of transmission, which I thought was droplets, in the form of spray from coughs, sneezes and when people are talking, but if it's air-bourn, it won't do much. Unfortunately it's becoming more likely the main mode of transmission is air-bourn, hence why visors don't help much.
I don't know why dentists wore visors to protect against HIV, which is not transmitted by spray, or was that in the early days, when not much was known about it? The last time I saw my dentist, they didn't wear a visor, just a mask, but it was before the COVID-19 was known to be present in the UK. I'd imagine that's changed since.
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My wife was just told by her CEO that they're letting go of ~85% of their employees. They've all been working from home and I think they find out at the end of the month.
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Oh, so it looks like visors don't provide as much protection as I origionally thought. It also implies masks provide more protection for the wearer, than I thought too. I'm happy to admit I'm wrong about this.
Visors provide a high degree of protection, but not from breath. Dentists have been wearing them since AIDS first appeared, to catch spray from working on a patient's mouth. When you look at the amount of spray they catch, its surprising dentists didn't always wear these things just to keep clean. Nurses and other medical people have been wearing them for years, because again they are at risk from spray coming from patients during procedures.
Every dentist I have ever been to has worn a face shield during any procedure that produces aerosols - like drilling.
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My wife was just told by her CEO that they're letting go of ~85% of their employees. They've all been working from home and I think they find out at the end of the month.
What industry?
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Oh, so it looks like visors don't provide as much protection as I origionally thought. It also implies masks provide more protection for the wearer, than I thought too. I'm happy to admit I'm wrong about this.
Visors provide a high degree of protection, but not from breath. Dentists have been wearing them since AIDS first appeared, to catch spray from working on a patient's mouth. When you look at the amount of spray they catch, its surprising dentists didn't always wear these things just to keep clean. Nurses and other medical people have been wearing them for years, because again they are at risk from spray coming from patients during procedures.
Every dentist I have ever been to has worn a face shield during any procedure that produces aerosols - like drilling.
I've never had my teeth drilled before, so that would explain why I've not seen a dentist wear a visor.
My wife was just told by her CEO that they're letting go of ~85% of their employees. They've all been working from home and I think they find out at the end of the month.
What does she do and how has her job been impacted by the pandemic?
I think if we have a long term recession, it will be due to trade barriers, rather than the pandemic.
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My wife was just told by her CEO that they're letting go of ~85% of their employees. They've all been working from home and I think they find out at the end of the month.
What industry?
Entertainment in Hollywood(Movies and TV both foreign and domestic). They're almost entirely unable to get things done right now due to California going into shutdown #2. The original paycheck protection plan was the only reason it took this long. It would probably be a total closure if it weren't for some states still trying to get things done although the work is very minimal. I personally suspect that if the CEO didn't have other businesses they would've closed completely but this was his first business and he probably doesn't want to see it be another covid death.
My wife is pretty upset because some people she knew had significant life events coming up(weddings, kids, etc...) And this will definitely put a damper on all of that.
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My wife was just told by her CEO that they're letting go of ~85% of their employees. They've all been working from home and I think they find out at the end of the month.
What industry?
Entertainment in Hollywood(Movies and TV both foreign and domestic). They're almost entirely unable to get things done right now due to California going into shutdown #2. The original paycheck protection plan was the only reason it took this long. It would probably be a total closure if it weren't for some states still trying to get things done although the work is very minimal. I personally suspect that if the CEO didn't have other businesses they would've closed completely but this was his first business and he probably doesn't want to see it be another covid death.
My wife is pretty upset because some people she knew had significant life events coming up(weddings, kids, etc...) And this will definitely put a damper on all of that.
Sucks! :(
Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
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The USA really is a bizarre test case for what happens when you basically stick your fingers in your ears for several months and pretend COVID is not a thing. Whaddya know, cases climb even faster.
I think the sad thing is if they had locked down really hard for 2-3 months instead of the weak-willed lockdown where some states still had bars and restaurants open, they would have been in a situation similar to the UK, and would be cautiously reopening with screening at the borders and social distancing/mask requirements.
But now they've turned into one of a few countries in the world, that every other country wants to ban tourism and visits to.
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My wife was just told by her CEO that they're letting go of ~85% of their employees. They've all been working from home and I think they find out at the end of the month.
What industry?
Entertainment in Hollywood(Movies and TV both foreign and domestic). They're almost entirely unable to get things done right now due to California going into shutdown #2. The original paycheck protection plan was the only reason it took this long. It would probably be a total closure if it weren't for some states still trying to get things done although the work is very minimal. I personally suspect that if the CEO didn't have other businesses they would've closed completely but this was his first business and he probably doesn't want to see it be another covid death.
My wife is pretty upset because some people she knew had significant life events coming up(weddings, kids, etc...) And this will definitely put a damper on all of that.
Sucks! :(
Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
Yea, CA is pretty big. I've talked about this here before but in LA we've basically never left lockdown since March(I could be wrong I was stuck in bed for 2 months starting mar 17) but lots of other counties have including most around LA. There is also an issue that even if they were to hard enforce lockdowns we literally don't have enough police to manage it. Even worse I also got work through her company. The manufacturing companies I work with are mostly holding off on anything non critical too.
One shop laid off 50% of their techs(the Indies I work with are holding on so far) most manufacturing companies have cut most or all temps(varies but still a significant number of people) to manage social distancing and costs. CA is probably going to be in trouble come the next year, we're going to have a massive deficit.
I forgot to mention Disneyland. They brought a ton of people back in anticipation of a "reopening"(the plans were bad even if the lockdown didn't return) that never happened and they aren't getting rid of them again. Park is a money pit right now.
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My wife was just told by her CEO that they're letting go of ~85% of their employees. They've all been working from home and I think they find out at the end of the month.
What industry?
Entertainment in Hollywood(Movies and TV both foreign and domestic). They're almost entirely unable to get things done right now due to California going into shutdown #2. The original paycheck protection plan was the only reason it took this long. It would probably be a total closure if it weren't for some states still trying to get things done although the work is very minimal. I personally suspect that if the CEO didn't have other businesses they would've closed completely but this was his first business and he probably doesn't want to see it be another covid death.
My wife is pretty upset because some people she knew had significant life events coming up(weddings, kids, etc...) And this will definitely put a damper on all of that.
Sucks! :(
Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
Yea, CA is pretty big. I've talked about this here before but in LA we've basically never left lockdown since March(I could be wrong I was stuck in bed for 2 months starting mar 17) but lots of other counties have including most around LA. There is also an issue that even if they were to hard enforce lockdowns we literally don't have enough police to manage it. Even worse I also got work through her company. The manufacturing companies I work with are mostly holding off on anything non critical too.
One shop laid off 50% of their techs(the Indies I work with are holding on so far) most manufacturing companies have cut most or all temps(varies but still a significant number of people) to manage social distancing and costs. CA is probably going to be in trouble come the next year, we're going to have a massive deficit.
I forgot to mention Disneyland. They brought a ton of people back in anticipation of a "reopening"(the plans were bad even if the lockdown didn't return) that never happened and they aren't getting rid of them again. Park is a money pit right now.
Things are looking grim, for sure. I'm not sure all this impending pain is baked into the cake yet, in terms of the impact this will all have....
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Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
One of those statistics that misrepresents reality because it's not population adjusted. Go here and sort by Total case / 1M population. See where California is on that list (you may need to scroll). How about Arizona and Florida?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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Or offer other perks. My employer doesn't pay all that great, but they offered flexible hours, work from home even prior to Covid, "unlimited" PTO which means essentially that as long as your work gets done you can just take time off whenever you need it.
Altium used to have free food (breakfast, lunch, and dinner), make your own hours, free gym membership, free car washing, free concierge errand service (i.e. get someone to go to the shop to buy something for you etc) and other stuff. Still couldn't get staff because of the shitty location, probably the worst spot in Sydney for a tech company.
I was around in those days when that region was (on paper) poised to be another Chatswood. That's why the Bunnings (Hardware House) was put there, to feed the construction of the new metropolis.
One of my good payers used his powers as CEO and moved his company HQ in there with the same aspirations as, I'm sure, Altium had.
The idea was to sort of spread out in all four directions with a kind of less dense approach that would appease the existing local residents. One such resident was a certain Dick Head ;) who, like several others, had a bad case of the NIMBY's. So the project got stifled somewhat.
In the opposite direction down the hill towards froggy forrest, was seen as a fertile gold mine, ready to explode. That's why that overpass/underpass got built.
There were other factors that frightened the next wave of investors after the first ones had done so much. All three levels of bastardy if you catch my drift, I'll spare ya the gory details. ;)
Most commercial entities who weren't locked in choofed-off to Parra, Chatty or Nth Sydney. And that was that.
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Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
One of those statistics that misrepresents reality because it's not population adjusted. Go here and sort by Total case / 1M population. See where California is on that list (you may need to scroll). How about Arizona and Florida?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
I am yet to be convinced that dividing the cases by the population makes a lot of sense. - After all, it only takes one infected person to cause a problem, even if the population is 1.4Bn as in China.
Seen from that perspective, the important number is how many "carriers" are on the loose and potentially infecting the healthy population (whether the healthy population is 10K or 10Gig persons doesn't matter).
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Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
One of those statistics that misrepresents reality because it's not population adjusted. Go here and sort by Total case / 1M population. See where California is on that list (you may need to scroll). How about Arizona and Florida?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
I am yet to be convinced that dividing the cases by the population makes a lot of sense. - After all, it only takes one infected person to cause a problem, even if the population is 1.4Bn as in China.
Seen from that perspective, the important number is how many "carriers" are on the loose and potentially infecting the healthy population (whether the healthy population is 10K or 10Gig persons doesn't matter).
The point is sound but the hysterical news media cannot make up their minds which approach to take, so they err on the side of running with the one that is most likely to frighten the daylights out of people.
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Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
One of those statistics that misrepresents reality because it's not population adjusted. Go here and sort by Total case / 1M population. See where California is on that list (you may need to scroll). How about Arizona and Florida?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
I am yet to be convinced that dividing the cases by the population makes a lot of sense. - After all, it only takes one infected person to cause a problem, even if the population is 1.4Bn as in China.
Seen from that perspective, the important number is how many "carriers" are on the loose and potentially infecting the healthy population (whether the healthy population is 10K or 10Gig persons doesn't matter).
You divided cases by population when you compared two states to each other in the first place. You just failed to mention the fact that California has twice the population of New York state.
But let's go with your argument. If what counts is the number of carriers, then Total cases is still the wrong metric, since that's counting a LOT of people who aren't currently carriers, including those that are dead and those who are fully recovered. I'd suggest that population density matters as well. Did you know that the densest parts of the NYC metro area are actually in New Jersey? New Jersey actually beats New York and leads the nation when it comes to Deaths / 1M population.
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Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
One of those statistics that misrepresents reality because it's not population adjusted. Go here and sort by Total case / 1M population. See where California is on that list (you may need to scroll). How about Arizona and Florida?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
I am yet to be convinced that dividing the cases by the population makes a lot of sense. - After all, it only takes one infected person to cause a problem, even if the population is 1.4Bn as in China.
Seen from that perspective, the important number is how many "carriers" are on the loose and potentially infecting the healthy population (whether the healthy population is 10K or 10Gig persons doesn't matter).
You divided cases by population when you compared two states to each other in the first place. You just failed to mention the fact that California has twice the population of New York state.
But let's go with your argument. If what counts is the number of carriers, then Total cases is still the wrong metric, since that's counting a LOT of people who aren't currently carriers, including those that are dead and those who are fully recovered. I'd suggest that population density matters as well. Did you know that the densest parts of the NYC metro area are actually in New Jersey? New Jersey actually beats New York and leads the nation when it comes to Deaths / 1M population.
It doesn't help that there are reports floating around that cause of death was adjusted to achieve extra funding.
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Apparently California just today passed New York as the state with the highest number of Covid19 cases. Exponential functions are a b!tch...
One of those statistics that misrepresents reality because it's not population adjusted. Go here and sort by Total case / 1M population. See where California is on that list (you may need to scroll). How about Arizona and Florida?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
I am yet to be convinced that dividing the cases by the population makes a lot of sense. - After all, it only takes one infected person to cause a problem, even if the population is 1.4Bn as in China.
Seen from that perspective, the important number is how many "carriers" are on the loose and potentially infecting the healthy population (whether the healthy population is 10K or 10Gig persons doesn't matter).
You divided cases by population when you compared two states to each other in the first place. You just failed to mention the fact that California has twice the population of New York state.
But let's go with your argument. If what counts is the number of carriers, then Total cases is still the wrong metric, since that's counting a LOT of people who aren't currently carriers, including those that are dead and those who are fully recovered. I'd suggest that population density matters as well. Did you know that the densest parts of the NYC metro area are actually in New Jersey? New Jersey actually beats New York and leads the nation when it comes to Deaths / 1M population.
Well, total cases would include the number of carriers (i.e. they were carriers at some point... not necessarily now, and they may not even be alive any longer). I agree it isn't a super useful number.
More useful would be to estimate the number of currently active carriers from the number of daily new cases over the most recent 2 weeks.
That would make the daily number of new cases the most important metric - is the number of active carriers going up or down?
Seen from this angle, we can then talk about what drives the daily number of new cases. The previous two week's number of carriers is the biggest factor, followed by things like population density, hygiene, mask wearing, and the rest of it. The Asian countries understood this from the get-go and went after the carriers early on, with zero tolerance - it is how they wiped the virus out.
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That would make the daily number of new cases the most important metric.
Only if you make it relative, such as a percentage increase or decrease. Absolute numbers would be meaningless.
Edit: but even percentages would be wrong. Whatever numbers you come up with you'd probably need to take account of population density (100 people spread out are going to have a lower R than the same number all in the same street, for instance). And the density distribution - several dense ares, like towns, would skew the numbers in a different way to the same numbers over the same area but evenly spread.
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That would make the daily number of new cases the most important metric.
Only if you make it relative, such as a percentage increase or decrease. Absolute numbers would be meaningless.
Edit: but even percentages would be wrong. Whatever numbers you come up with you'd probably need to take account of population density (100 people spread out are going to have a lower R than the same number all in the same street, for instance). And the density distribution - several dense ares, like towns, would skew the numbers in a different way to the same numbers over the same area but evenly spread.
So if we had 200 new cases yesterday and 220 new ones today, we would presumably agree that the trend is going the wrong direction and we need to reverse it. No matter what the other factors are.
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The USA really is a bizarre test case for what happens when you basically stick your fingers in your ears for several months and pretend COVID is not a thing. Whaddya know, cases climb even faster.
I think the sad thing is if they had locked down really hard for 2-3 months instead of the weak-willed lockdown where some states still had bars and restaurants open, they would have been in a situation similar to the UK, and would be cautiously reopening with screening at the borders and social distancing/mask requirements.
But now they've turned into one of a few countries in the world, that every other country wants to ban tourism and visits to.
The US is a vast country. Some states have done better than others. The problem is it's difficult to limit people travelling from one state to another. The central government should have emergency powers to restrict interstate travel.
As far as lockdowns are concerned, it's not binary. At one extreme is a total lockdown, when everyone is confined to their homes, are not allowed to go out for any reason and have essential items such as food rations delivered to their doors, by the authorities. This has been proven to completely eliminate COVID-19, from the area within a few weeks, but it only works in relatively small areas, because it requires a huge level of enforcement and people to deliver supplies. There are only to examples of complete lockdowns, I know of: Wuhan, China and Vo, Italy. At the other end of the spectrum, most things stay open, with only large gatherings of people prohibited. Sweden did the latter and whist it did have more deaths, than comparable countries, cases in the country have still fallen and they've faired better than much of the US.
Most of Europe had a fairly extensive lockdown, when people were only allowed to leave their homes for food and if they couldn't work from home, although lots of business were closed anyway. Now most countries have eased their lockdowns, whist keeping some social distancing measures in place and implementing contact tracing and isolation. Most US states seem to have made the mistake of easing the lockdowns too quickly and not implementing other measures to control the spread. The authorities should find out where most of the spread is occurring and focus their efforts of those areas, rather than applying blanket lockdowns.
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US Americans are very self confident and slow to accept their fate. When you look at the statistics web site linked above, there are few states with more than 1000 dead from Covid19 per million people. And those are the states with the lowest number of new infections, which indicates low virus activity. So people are learning it the hard way. In this sense Trump and his government are representative.
Regards, Dieter
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So if we had 200 new cases yesterday and 220 new ones today, we would presumably agree that the trend is going the wrong direction and we need to reverse it. No matter what the other factors are.
In a one-word answer, yes.
But... in a population of 300m those figures are nothing. For a village of 1000 it's pretty disastrous. And if the previous day was, say, 170 and the day before 100 then it might be the wrong direction but it's coming around.
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So if we had 200 new cases yesterday and 220 new ones today, we would presumably agree that the trend is going the wrong direction and we need to reverse it. No matter what the other factors are.
In a one-word answer, yes.
But... in a population of 300m those figures are nothing. For a village of 1000 it's pretty disastrous. And if the previous day was, say, 170 and the day before 100 then it might be the wrong direction but it's coming around.
Because of exponential growth, even 1 single case is not "nothing" because you know everyone will eventually be infected if the spread is not curbed.
So we are right back to looking at the daily numbers... whether they are in the tens or the ten thousands, we need them to be trending down.
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because you know everyone will eventually be infected if the spread is not curbed
In a large population with high density areas dotted around, you might have a better chance of stopping the spread than with a small population where a third of them already have it. So, no, I don't think it's necessarily a given that everyone will eventually be infected. New Zealand shows that it can be stopped.
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Another way to see the daily new cases is to look at the slope of the totals.
If you look at the slopes for CA, FL, TX you can see that this is heading for a monumental disaster unless something changes soon.
[attachimg=1]
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because you know everyone will eventually be infected if the spread is not curbed
In a large population with high density areas dotted around, you might have a better chance of stopping the spread than with a small population where a third of them already have it. So, no, I don't think it's necessarily a given that everyone will eventually be infected. New Zealand shows that it can be stopped.
Small areas are much easier to manage though. New Zealand is relatively remote, with little international travel, so it's not surprising they've managed to contain it. Some of the British isles are now COVID-free Guernsey and the Isle of Man spring to mind, but I'm sure there are others.
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because you know everyone will eventually be infected if the spread is not curbed
In a large population with high density areas dotted around, you might have a better chance of stopping the spread than with a small population where a third of them already have it. So, no, I don't think it's necessarily a given that everyone will eventually be infected. New Zealand shows that it can be stopped.
Small areas are much easier to manage though. New Zealand is relatively remote, with little international travel, so it's not surprising they've managed to contain it. Some of the British isles are now COVID-free Guernsey and the Isle of Man spring to mind, but I'm sure there are others.
Whilst there are a number of clangers NZ had during their so-called handling of this, much of the severity that was curbed can be attributed to the pre-existing paranoid agriculture protection systems already in place.
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Trying to grasp how much more the prolonged stay at home stuff will be in place, the far right keeps pointing out that the covid cases spike should be blamed on the riots, since Americans aren't allowed to do anything else.
It leaves me with two questions. Are the riots really causing a spike and indeed preventing the drop in cases? Can the bullshit hounds on here sit though a 3.5 minute video and actually debunk the presented, cherry-picked I'm sure, 'facts'?
The graph at 0:25s:
[attach=1]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD2Sehrga4k (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD2Sehrga4k)
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What are you, racist? The protests have slowed COVID. Thank whoever you like that they decided to start protesting or you'd really see what COVID could do.
https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/covid-blm-protests-link (https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/covid-blm-protests-link)
https://coloradosun.com/2020/06/30/police-protests-coronavirus-spread/ (https://coloradosun.com/2020/06/30/police-protests-coronavirus-spread/)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html)
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On the left, mass protests... on the right, refusing to wear masks etc.
Only the long suffering moderate middle Americans will make it through to the other side intact! :D
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What are you, racist? The protests have slowed COVID. Thank whoever you like that they decided to start protesting or you'd really see what COVID could do.
https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/covid-blm-protests-link (https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/covid-blm-protests-link)
https://coloradosun.com/2020/06/30/police-protests-coronavirus-spread/ (https://coloradosun.com/2020/06/30/police-protests-coronavirus-spread/)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html)
It's plausible that more people will stay indoors whilst there's unrest and the protesters represented a relatively small proportion of the population, but:
1) Those articles are around a month old, which is ancient history, as far as the pandemic is concerned.
2) The studies they're based on were also not peer reviewed, so don't take them as solid evidence.
Meanwhile, in the UK, the government has reintroduced quarantine for people travelling from Spain. Unfortunately, many people have booked holidays there and will lose money, as they won't be able to return to work for two weeks. This comes after months of lockdown and now we're having one of the coolest and wettest summers in recent years, so more people want to escape to the sun.
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Meanwhile, in the UK, the government has reintroduced quarantine for people travelling from Spain. Unfortunately, many people have booked holidays there and will lose money, as they won't be able to return to work for two weeks. This comes after months of lockdown and now we're having one of the coolest and wettest summers in recent years, so more people want to escape to the sun.
We are having a cool and wet July, but June was much nicer than usual. Overall, we have been able to dine in the garden a lot more this year than last year (which to me seems like a reasonable measure of warm dry weather).
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Meanwhile, in the UK, the government has reintroduced quarantine for people travelling from Spain. Unfortunately, many people have booked holidays there and will lose money, as they won't be able to return to work for two weeks. This comes after months of lockdown and now we're having one of the coolest and wettest summers in recent years, so more people want to escape to the sun.
We are having a cool and wet July, but June was much nicer than usual. Overall, we have been able to dine in the garden a lot more this year than last year (which to me seems like a reasonable measure of warm dry weather).
Yes spring and early summer were nice, but the weather seems to have taken a nosedive since lockdown lifted, at least where I live: bloody typical!
Anyway, back on topic, it seems like long term immunity to COVID-19 is becoming increasingly likely.
People who were previously infected with the original SARS back in 2003 still have high levels of T cells which also are likely to make them immune to COVID-19. It's also possible mild coronaviruses which cause the common cold might provide crossimmunity to COVID-19, which could explain why there are asymptomatic infections, which never progress to even a mild illness.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z)
https://www.ft.com/content/5cf2ee49-df7a-4990-b337-860cf7737b2f (https://www.ft.com/content/5cf2ee49-df7a-4990-b337-860cf7737b2f)
I doubt the authorities will acknowledge this, even it does become proven it's not possible to get COVID-19 more than once, because some silly people will deliberately get infected. :palm:
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[...] because some silly people will deliberately get infected. :palm:
That's all a vaccination is, when all is said and done...
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Bill Gates' vaccine: "Resistance is futile, you will be vaccinated"
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Bill Gates' vaccine: "Resistance is futile, you will be vaccinated"
We've all seen his software and the quality therein.
God help us.
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Yeah I’m waiting for SP6a
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Yeah I’m waiting for SP6a
If the vaccine comes with a free browser, I'll shoot myself.
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People who were previously infected with the original SARS back in 2003 still have high levels of T cells which also are likely to make them immune to COVID-19. It's also possible mild coronaviruses which cause the common cold might provide cross immunity to COVID-19, which could explain why there are asymptomatic infections, which never progress to even a mild illness.
Having been in Hong Kong during the SARS outbreak, and having travelled in and out of China multiple times a week during the peak of the outbreak, for a key project, I have been wondering whether I am even susceptible to COVID-19. However, the recent uptick in cases in HK is making me think I probably don't have any immunity.
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[...] because some silly people will deliberately get infected. :palm:
That's all a vaccination is, when all is said and done...
Well no because not all vaccines are a crippled virus, or even an inactivated virus.
Bill Gates' vaccine: "Resistance is futile, you will be vaccinated"
I'm not sure what to make of this.. are you suggesting that a vaccine is a bad thing? Or that we shouldn't vaccinate 85%+ of the population to provide herd immunity? Or that Bill Gates' foundation efforts haven't prevented countless unnecessary deaths from preventable diseases? I really don't understand that hate Bill Gates gets for his vaccine efforts - the only complaints I've read have been from anti-vaxxers who misinterpret science and are paranoid that they are somehow being controlled.
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[...] because some silly people will deliberately get infected. :palm:
That's all a vaccination is, when all is said and done...
Well no because not all vaccines are a crippled virus, or even an inactivated virus.
Bill Gates' vaccine: "Resistance is futile, you will be vaccinated"
I'm not sure what to make of this.. are you suggesting that a vaccine is a bad thing? Or that we shouldn't vaccinate 85%+ of the population to provide herd immunity? Or that Bill Gates' foundation efforts haven't prevented countless unnecessary deaths from preventable diseases? I really don't understand that hate Bill Gates gets for his vaccine efforts - the only complaints I've read have been from anti-vaxxers who misinterpret science and are paranoid that they are somehow being controlled.
I can give you 2 reasons.
His software was shit.
When on TV discussing his dire predictions of the pandemic, he chuckles eerily.
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[...] because some silly people will deliberately get infected. :palm:
That's all a vaccination is, when all is said and done...
Well no because not all vaccines are a crippled virus, or even an inactivated virus.
Bill Gates' vaccine: "Resistance is futile, you will be vaccinated"
I'm not sure what to make of this.. are you suggesting that a vaccine is a bad thing? Or that we shouldn't vaccinate 85%+ of the population to provide herd immunity? Or that Bill Gates' foundation efforts haven't prevented countless unnecessary deaths from preventable diseases? I really don't understand that hate Bill Gates gets for his vaccine efforts - the only complaints I've read have been from anti-vaxxers who misinterpret science and are paranoid that they are somehow being controlled.
I can give you 2 reasons.
His software was shit.
When on TV discussing his dire predictions of the pandemic, he chuckles eerily.
...But had a big impact on the world... including on those who thinks his software was shit! :D
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will billy's vaccine insist its the only vaccine that can be installed,and will it render other vaccines inoperable if its not installed first? Also will it phone home every few hours to make sure its got the latest virus updates ?
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The real worry is if it would crash the system, unexpectedly.
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Well no because not all vaccines are a crippled virus, or even an inactivated virus.
Bill Gates' vaccine: "Resistance is futile, you will be vaccinated"
I'm not sure what to make of this.. are you suggesting that a vaccine is a bad thing? Or that we shouldn't vaccinate 85%+ of the population to provide herd immunity? Or that Bill Gates' foundation efforts haven't prevented countless unnecessary deaths from preventable diseases? I really don't understand that hate Bill Gates gets for his vaccine efforts - the only complaints I've read have been from anti-vaxxers who misinterpret science and are paranoid that they are somehow being controlled.
I can give you 2 reasons.
His software was shit.
When on TV discussing his dire predictions of the pandemic, he chuckles eerily.
Ok.. what does his software have to do with providing funds for vaccinations? He has no influence on the biology of the vaccine, and the measures countries have taken in the past few months, in part, were influenced by the warnings/findings from event 201 which was partly from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
But no, you didn't like Windows Vista, ergo: vaccines bad.
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Well no because not all vaccines are a crippled virus, or even an inactivated virus.
Bill Gates' vaccine: "Resistance is futile, you will be vaccinated"
I'm not sure what to make of this.. are you suggesting that a vaccine is a bad thing? Or that we shouldn't vaccinate 85%+ of the population to provide herd immunity? Or that Bill Gates' foundation efforts haven't prevented countless unnecessary deaths from preventable diseases? I really don't understand that hate Bill Gates gets for his vaccine efforts - the only complaints I've read have been from anti-vaxxers who misinterpret science and are paranoid that they are somehow being controlled.
I can give you 2 reasons.
His software was shit.
When on TV discussing his dire predictions of the pandemic, he chuckles eerily.
Ok.. what does his software have to do with providing funds for vaccinations? He has no influence on the biology of the vaccine, and the measures countries have taken in the past few months, in part, were influenced by the warnings/findings from event 201 which was partly from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
But no, you didn't like Windows Vista, ergo: vaccines bad.
You want his vaccine? Have at it.
And if you're vaccinated, you need not worry whether or not I have had it.
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I can give you 2 reasons.
His software was shit.
When on TV discussing his dire predictions of the pandemic, he chuckles eerily.
Ok.. what does his software have to do with providing funds for vaccinations? He has no influence on the biology of the vaccine, and the measures countries have taken in the past few months, in part, were influenced by the warnings/findings from event 201 which was partly from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
But no, you didn't like Windows Vista, ergo: vaccines bad.
Blimey. You do seem upset enough about something to miss a blindingly obvious pisstake. Hope it isn't/wasn't a life-changing event.
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What are you, racist? The protests have slowed COVID. Thank whoever you like that they decided to start protesting or you'd really see what COVID could do.
https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/covid-blm-protests-link (https://www.inverse.com/mind-body/covid-blm-protests-link)
https://coloradosun.com/2020/06/30/police-protests-coronavirus-spread/ (https://coloradosun.com/2020/06/30/police-protests-coronavirus-spread/)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html)
It's plausible that more people will stay indoors whilst there's unrest and the protesters represented a relatively small proportion of the population, but:
1) Those articles are around a month old, which is ancient history, as far as the pandemic is concerned.
2) The studies they're based on were also not peer reviewed, so don't take them as solid evidence.
Meanwhile, in the UK, the government has reintroduced quarantine for people travelling from Spain. Unfortunately, many people have booked holidays there and will lose money, as they won't be able to return to work for two weeks. This comes after months of lockdown and now we're having one of the coolest and wettest summers in recent years, so more people want to escape to the sun.
I'd recommend reading the paper in full. I'm not trying to be a cryptic asshole, I just have some work to do. If I get some time later I'll get some cliffs notes.
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You want his vaccine? Have at it.
And if you're vaccinated, you need not worry whether or not I have had it.
How is it "his" vaccine?
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One might suspect this vaccine will come with a baffling product name (obJekt311) and have a never ending series of service packs that will close the viruses zero day exploits. This will spawn a whole industry of vaccine add-ons with features dependent on your health care package. As for intellectual property violations, China and Mexico will shove out identicate clones by the container ship load.
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One might suspect this vaccine will come with a baffling product name (obJekt311) and have a never ending series of service packs that will close the viruses zero day exploits. This will spawn a whole industry of vaccine add-ons with features dependent on your health care package. As for intellectual property violations, China and Mexico will shove out identicate clones by the container ship load.
The clones will cost $0.0001 per dose, and the "protected" products will cost $12,000 per dose, to be paid only by Americans because they have the best system! :D
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If I want to travel, what should I get the Home Edition or the Pro?
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The clones will cost $0.0001 per dose, and the "protected" products will cost $12,000 per dose, to be paid only by Americans because they have the best system! :D
The protected products come in a box with an authenticating hologram and a QR code. The clones just come in a box.
If I want to travel, what should I get the Home Edition or the Pro?
Swallow the Tablet Edition.
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You want his vaccine? Have at it.
And if you're vaccinated, you need not worry whether or not I have had it.
It's not "his" vaccine, he's just somebody with more money than he's able to ever spend who is actually doing something to give back to the world. You're confusing the source of funding with the actual development process, or just making stuff up, I really don't know.
Clearly you do not understand how vaccines work, yes, it does matter whether most people have had it, it cannot work unless enough people have had it that we achieve herd immunity.
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This thread had better get back on topic now...
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I wonder how long the current situation (virus), is going to remain for ?
I probably need to measure a 'piece of string' and multiply it by a random number, to find out.
Will we all just have to get used to it, on a very long term basis ?
Yes/maybe, see above.
Will the Electronics and Computing industries, stay the same, expand or decline, as a result, in the longer term ?
It's unlikely to expand, as sales are probably dropping, as people buy less and/or can't afford to buy so much, in this climate.
Will countries be more likely to buy electronics, made from their own local businesses, rather than from foreign countries, as a result ?
If so, that would prop up sales, locally, which should improve the local technical sector, jobs market.
But in practice, I don't think there will be that much of a shift in buying practices. I think cheaper prices, are the over-riding factor here.
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I'm going to keep deleting posts here until people get the message to stay at least reasonably on-topic.
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I wonder how long the current situation (virus), is going to remain for ?
I probably need to measure a 'piece of string' and multiply it by a random number, to find out.
Will we all just have to get used to it, on a very long term basis ?
Yes/maybe, see above.
That's today's big media discussion here in Australia, with headlines like "Should we eliminate the virus, or just learn to live with it?"
You can't eliminate the virus, it's going to be impossible unless you completely isolate your borders forever, and even then you still need to let trade through and other important things.
You have to get back to normal levels of travel eventually, society will demand it.
Will the Electronics and Computing industries, stay the same, expand or decline, as a result, in the longer term ?
It's unlikely to expand, as sales are probably dropping, as people buy less and/or can't afford to buy so much, in this climate.
My sales have actually increased during the lockdown, presumably as bored people buy stuff online. But as a whole, yeah, countless companies decimated. Probably won't know the real impact for a while longer.
Will countries be more likely to buy electronics, made from their own local businesses, rather than from foreign countries, as a result ?
Already happening.
But in practice, I don't think there will be that much of a shift in buying practices. I think cheaper prices, are the over-riding factor here.
Depends how long this whole thing lasts at a serious enough level.
It can take years to get local manufacturing humming again after decades of destroying local industries and relying on China.
So might be easy to revert "back to normal" (i.e. everything comes from China) if this thing passes before local industries can rebuild.
But there does seem to be at least some amount of a permanent "onshoring" mentality and some anti-China rhetoric from most governments now.
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I wonder how long the current situation (virus), is going to remain for ?
I probably need to measure a 'piece of string' and multiply it by a random number, to find out.
Will we all just have to get used to it, on a very long term basis ?
Yes/maybe, see above.
That's today's big media discussion here in Australia, with headlines like "Should we eliminate the virus, or just learn to live with it?"
You can't eliminate the virus, it's going to be impossible unless you completely isolate your borders forever, and even then you still need to let trade through and other important things.
You have to get back to normal levels of travel eventually, society will demand it.
I agree.
But I think there are a number of possible developments (ironically, some of them, electronic), which may well be able to eliminate the virus.
[]-Successful virus vaccine development + ability to very large mass scale produce it, and that most of the world can afford it. Herd immunity will mop up (remove), even more of the virus as well.
[]-Have a cheap, reliable and fast/easy test, to see who has or hasn't got it. Sooner or later, the test should be developed, to be like that. E.g. Takes 2 minutes to detect, 99.9999% reliable, $0.15 per test strip, using a low cost, hand held device.
[]-Improve the contact tracing systems. Not going to eliminate the virus by itself, but can improve the situation.
[]-The virus may die out and disappear, all by itself. I think, many new virus's, do just that.
[]-Successful/reliable treatments, may be created. Which although the virus may still be around, if you can treat it, and the death rate, becomes very small. That would be a good work around as well. (Plan B).
Will the Electronics and Computing industries, stay the same, expand or decline, as a result, in the longer term ?
It's unlikely to expand, as sales are probably dropping, as people buy less and/or can't afford to buy so much, in this climate.
My sales have actually increased during the lockdown, presumably as bored people buy stuff online. But as a whole, yeah, countless companies decimated. Probably won't know the real impact for a while longer.
That doesn't surprise me. All this 'free time' and/or 'indoor time' and/or 'not going out anywhere', situation. Seems to make peoples hobby activities (which many of your sales, are related to), dramatically increase.
Suddenly the mythical, 'Month of Sundays', has magically appeared and is actively running, for months on end.
Will countries be more likely to buy electronics, made from their own local businesses, rather than from foreign countries, as a result ?
Already happening.
But in practice, I don't think there will be that much of a shift in buying practices. I think cheaper prices, are the over-riding factor here.
Depends how long this whole thing lasts at a serious enough level.
It can take years to get local manufacturing humming again after decades of destroying local industries and relying on China.
So might be easy to revert "back to normal" (i.e. everything comes from China) if this thing passes before local industries can rebuild.
But there does seem to be at least some amount of a permanent "onshoring" mentality and some anti-China rhetoric from most governments now.
I don't think it would take that long, for electronics manufacturing, to return, to the West. Especially, if there is lots of investment, and Government interest (grants, tax cuts, red-tape/rule relaxation, free loans, other help).
If/when big businesses (and small ones), think there is beginning to be a new (brought back), market. Which they think is growing, and will continue to grow in the future. They can start new electronic factories, which can roll out, Resistors, Capacitors, probably basic semiconductors, PCBs and other things.
But, big Integrated Circuit plants, take much longer, cost a huge fortune to make, and probably won't return in a big way. But, they were/are made outside of China, in lots of places (I'm not sure of the split between China and the rest of the world, as regards IC manufacturing plants) E.g. Samsung/S.Korea, already.
So, that could shift as well.
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[]-Successful/reliable treatments, may be created. Which although the virus may still be around, if you can treat it, and the death rate, becomes very small.
The death rate is already very small, comparable to a normal flu (650k/yr), and less that half the deaths/yr in car accidents (1400k/yr).
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year
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[]-Successful/reliable treatments, may be created. Which although the virus may still be around, if you can treat it, and the death rate, becomes very small.
The death rate is already very small, comparable to a normal flu (650k/yr), and less that half the deaths/yr in car accidents (1400k/yr).
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year
It is not quite that simple.
If we went back to 100% life as normal, i.e. like things were in 2018.
The car death rates, would stay around the same.
The flu death rates would stay around the same.
But, the Coronavirus, death rate, would exponentially climb, until (experts seem to say), something like 70% to 80%+, of the population is infected, when so called herd immunity, will (hopefully) kick in and naturally combat the R number.
But additionally, hospitals, would likely be over-whelmed, which would be likely to lead to hospitals having to make very hard decisions, and ration, who can and can't be treated. E.g. Viable Ventilators would run out, hospital staff would get exhausted, hospital beds would run out, vital medicines would run low and run out. Etc etc.
The combination of those two factors combined, could lead to something like x20 to x80, of the current death rates. I.e. exponentially more infected, multiplied by up to 10 times worse death rate, because of the shortage of hospital facilities.
We could argue with the figures. But I hope we can agree, that they would be massively worse than they are now, especially in countries that have nicely brought the illness under control.
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We could argue with the figures. But I hope we can agree, that they would be massively worse than they are now, especially in countries that have nicely brought the illness under control.
Maybe. Maybe not. Look at Sweden. We'll see. But keep destroying normal peoples' businesses and incomes and we'll have a problem much worse yet.
And as always, don't forget to ask who wins, and follow the money, please.
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Maybe. Maybe not. Look at Sweden. We'll see. But keep destroying normal peoples' businesses and incomes and we'll have a problem much worse yet.
And as always, don't forget to ask who wins, and follow the money, please.
The combination of working from home, social distancing, common use of face masks, improved hand hygiene. Plus all the other measures, are hopefully reducing (the R number), and keeping the virus at bay. While not as badly, economically damaging countries, compared with the early weeks of the Coronavirus outbreak.
So, to a reasonable extent, things are going back to normal, and the worst parts of the lockdown, are hopefully over now. Unless we get a second wave. Depending on where you live.
I'm not good enough at economics, to know if it is a good thing or not. That essentially, all of the world, has been hit by this virus, and the economic fallout, that is developing.
If the economic problems, had only hit certain countries, that would worry me much more (if I lived in those countries), and still bother me, if I didn't. Anyway, these days, because of globalisation, there would have still been big/huge economic fallout, if part of the world was suddenly and unexpectedly, in bad economic times.
I.e. It would have soon spread and affected, most/all of the rest of the world, with economic issues.
Although, those wouldn't be too bad.
unless some big players, were really badly struggling, in which case it probably would be very bad then, world wide.
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Look, all the europeans now owe 750 billion euros more than last week, to begin with. How good is that in your opinion?
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Look, all the europeans now owe 750 billion euros more than last week, to begin with. How good is that in your opinion?
That is a lot of money. I guess we need to hope for, and create, a much better economic future for ourselves. To minimise the impact, of such huge financial hits.
If we ignore money for the second, and look at it from a practical point of view.
In 2020 so far, because of the Coronavirus, and the various lockdowns/shutdowns, that there have been, world-wide.
A huge number of items/goods that were going to be produced in 2020, haven't been, and won't be.
So all sorts of cars, computers, kitchen equipment, etc. Haven't been made.
Similarly, all sorts of buildings, like houses and bigger. Haven't been built.
So, however nicely you dress up the situation. The numerous people who those items/goods were destined for, are not going to get them, in 2020.
At best, they will be delayed, at worst, they will be never made.
I.e. (Made up figures, as I don't have the real ones to hand). Let's say, there are going to be twenty million cars, less produced, because of the virus.
Then perhaps, 20 million people, round the world, are potentially going to be unhappy, when they attempt to get a new car.
So, somehow, there (presumably), will be huge shortages, of some things and/or they may be too expensive. to keep the demand under check.
But in practice, the possible shortages (due to recent production slowdowns, in 2020), and possible dramatic price increases (speculation), of a huge range of world wide goods. Doesn't bow well for the future.
EDIT: We don't seem to be seeing these shortages (except toilet paper :-DD ), so maybe the big reduction in demand, also because of the shutdowns/lockdowns, and general downturn etc. Is coping with the reduction in manufacturing. I'm not sure how that will pan out, in later years.
Will it just get absorbed, or will that, also cause an impact.
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Look, all the europeans now owe 750 billion euros more than last week, to begin with. How good is that in your opinion?
Not that big a deal. Quite genuinely, people get very bent out of shape over large emergency borrowing because of the making the classic "My country is like my household error". The way to look at it is: "What happens if we don't borrow this?". The analogy would be the marshall plan in the aftermath of the Second World War. We know what happened after the First World War to nations which had been hit hard by the conflict. France, Germany, the Low Countries and the UK had serious economic trauma for two decades, only made worse by the 1929 crash. Compared to the aftermath of the Second World War where a huge package of loans was used to rebuild those economies. That huge debt slowly bled away into insignificance over the next thirty years. The UK paid the tail end of ours off in the 2000s. That huge amount of money went towards building industries, keeping people employed and stopping the flow of money from grinding to a halt, and it worked. In this case government borrowing rates are very low because of all the spooked investors out there (A company can go bust tomorrow, but short of war a G20 economy is unlikely to blow up any time soon). A 30 year gilt is at like, 0.6% right now. If the government does nothing its tax revenue collapses and it can't service its debt. If it borrows money cheaply to stimulate the economy it can support as much of that revenue stream as it can (while saving a lot of jobs and livelihoods) and the debt gets slowly abraded away by growth and inflation over the three decades it takes the bond to mature. That isn't to say there's no danger in borrowing heavily. Some secondary effect could turn up that destabilises the system anyway, but you don't fix the problem that might happen, you fix the problem in front of you right now.
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The analogy would be the marshall plan in the aftermath of the Second World War. We know what happened after the First World War to nations which had been hit hard by the conflict. France, Germany, the Low Countries and the UK had serious economic trauma for two decades, only made worse by the 1929 crash. Compared to the aftermath of the Second World War where a huge package of loans was used to rebuild those economies. That huge debt slowly bled away into insignificance over the next thirty years. The UK paid the tail end of ours off in the 2000s. That huge amount of money went towards building industries, keeping people employed and stopping the flow of money from grinding to a halt, and it worked.
From "How to become the world's #1 power, chapter 1"
"First we bomb Europe, then we bill them for the bombs and the bullets, and after that we give them a loan on the condition that they buy the goods from US to rebuild everything that we have destroyed. And by the way, lest they recover too quickly, we better divide it in two halves. Let's make sure the east ends in the hands of that communist assassin."
:-)
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[]-Successful/reliable treatments, may be created. Which although the virus may still be around, if you can treat it, and the death rate, becomes very small.
The death rate is already very small, comparable to a normal flu (650k/yr), and less that half the deaths/yr in car accidents (1400k/yr).
Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year
650k is the upper estimate for flu and as mentioned above, COVID-19 is on top of that, with a load of mittigation slapped on top. Co-infection with flu and COVID-19 is also likely to increase the fatality rate, above the sum of the two diseases. There's also the possibility of long term health problems, due to COVID-19, even in those who have a relatively mild illness.
We could argue with the figures. But I hope we can agree, that they would be massively worse than they are now, especially in countries that have nicely brought the illness under control.
Maybe. Maybe not. Look at Sweden. We'll see. But keep destroying normal peoples' businesses and incomes and we'll have a problem much worse yet.
And as always, don't forget to ask who wins, and follow the money, please.
Contrary to popular belief, Sweden have introduced mandatory social distancing measures to control their epedemic such as cancelling large events and banning gatherings of more than 50. They've just been a lot lighter, than other European countries, who are now moving towards similar measures as Sweden. You could be right: it's possible the extensive lockdowns were unnecessary and lighter measures would've worked, abeit taken much longer to take effect and resulted in more deaths. It's also possible the lockdowns in Europe just moved deaths into the future. On the other hand, the economic effects of this might also be more short term, than many fear and countries with strick lockdowns might end up with fewer deaths. It's too early to say whether Sweden got it right or wrong.
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Look, all the europeans now owe 750 billion euros more than last week, to begin with. How good is that in your opinion?
Not that big a deal. Quite genuinely, people get very bent out of shape over large emergency borrowing because of the making the classic "My country is like my household error". The way to look at it is: "What happens if we don't borrow this?". The analogy would be the marshall plan in the aftermath of the Second World War. We know what happened after the First World War to nations which had been hit hard by the conflict. France, Germany, the Low Countries and the UK had serious economic trauma for two decades, only made worse by the 1929 crash. Compared to the aftermath of the Second World War where a huge package of loans was used to rebuild those economies. That huge debt slowly bled away into insignificance over the next thirty years. The UK paid the tail end of ours off in the 2000s. That huge amount of money went towards building industries, keeping people employed and stopping the flow of money from grinding to a halt, and it worked. In this case government borrowing rates are very low because of all the spooked investors out there (A company can go bust tomorrow, but short of war a G20 economy is unlikely to blow up any time soon). A 30 year gilt is at like, 0.6% right now. If the government does nothing its tax revenue collapses and it can't service its debt. If it borrows money cheaply to stimulate the economy it can support as much of that revenue stream as it can (while saving a lot of jobs and livelihoods) and the debt gets slowly abraded away by growth and inflation over the three decades it takes the bond to mature. That isn't to say there's no danger in borrowing heavily. Some secondary effect could turn up that destabilises the system anyway, but you don't fix the problem that might happen, you fix the problem in front of you right now.
This all makes total sense but there must be a point where the amount of debt becomes so large that it is totally unsustainable - for example, as happened to Greece. It seems the "unsustainable" level is somewhere between 130% and 180% of GDP. I know you can't directly compare with family economics, but it is roughly equivalent to having maxed out your credit card.
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This all makes total sense but there must be a point where the amount of debt becomes so large that it is totally unsustainable - for example, as happened to Greece. It seems the "unsustainable" level is somewhere between 130% and 180% of GDP. I know you can't directly compare with family economics, but it is roughly equivalent to having maxed out your credit card.
The issue is not really the size of the new debt. Its the interval between problems. This current problem has happened before most countries were able to work through the aftermath of the last big problem, and clear that debt.
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Another problem of public debt is that out of 100 euros, 95 sublimate on their way to the intended purpose.
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The whole concept of public debt is nonsense made up by bankers to en-debt the public too them and the politicians who pocketed by supporting the same.
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The whole concept of public debt is nonsense made up by bankers to en-debt the public too them and the politicians who pocketed by supporting the same.
Those who get to print and distribute money are obviously in a cushy position, no matter what! :D
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The whole concept of public debt is nonsense made up by bankers to en-debt the public too them and the politicians who pocketed by supporting the same.
Those who get to print and distribute money are obviously in a cushy position, no matter what! :D
Those who get to print and distribute the world's reserve current are obviously in a cushy position, unless cracks start to form. The rest are in a much less cushy position, on a steeply sliding scale.
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Is it true that Bill Gates wants to "alter our DNA"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ri-dJ1pHLUg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ri-dJ1pHLUg)
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Is it true that Bill Gates wants to "alter our DNA"?
No.
Another one on the ignore list.
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Is it true that Bill Gates wants to "alter our DNA"?
No.
Another one on the ignore list.
You sure?
https://thedailycoin.org/2020/05/17/bill-gates-explains-that-the-covid-vaccine-will-use-experimental-technology-and-permanently-alter-your-dna/
A new generation of vaccines is emerging as we speak. At present there are no DNA and RNA vaccines approved for human use, but as Gates says in the following post from his personal blog, the time for trying these out on everyone has come. In the following comment he explains the difference between traditional vaccines and DNA/RNA vaccines, which, again, have never been approved for human use
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Is it true that Bill Gates wants to "alter our DNA"?
No.
Another one on the ignore list.
You sure?
https://thedailycoin.org/2020/05/17/bill-gates-explains-that-the-covid-vaccine-will-use-experimental-technology-and-permanently-alter-your-dna/
A new generation of vaccines is emerging as we speak. At present there are no DNA and RNA vaccines approved for human use, but as Gates says in the following post from his personal blog, the time for trying these out on everyone has come. In the following comment he explains the difference between traditional vaccines and DNA/RNA vaccines, which, again, have never been approved for human use
Yes and when you follow the link in that article to the FULL article you find an apology because they were full of shit and got called out.
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I don't know, it's the first hit I got in google, here's another one:
Europe was already planning for a Vaccine ID Passport from the 3rd quarter of 2019. The real question is what is a vaccine. Gates has been funding a vaccine that is totally different. Instead of introducing a sample of a disease, he has been funding a vaccine that is in part nanobots that target to change and alter your DNA to prevent disease. This is already being met with approval and is highly questionable as to what are the long-term effects of changing someone’s DNA
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/vaccines-that-change-your-dna-gates-italian-experiment/ (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/vaccines-that-change-your-dna-gates-italian-experiment/)
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Yes and when you follow the link in that article to the FULL article you find an apology because they were full of shit and got called out.
Why do you lie? That's not what it says when you follow the link! Look:
"It does appear that there is some contention over the potential that DNA vaccines may permanently change a person’s DNA, as highlighted in this white paper from biotech company Moderna, a leading developer of RNA vaccine technology:
(Figure 5) The key challenge associated with DNA vaccines is that they must penetrate the cell nucleus (crossing two membranes; the cytoplasm and the nucleus). The DNA must then be transcribed in the nucleus into mRNA before moving to the cytoplasm to stimulate antigen production. This core complex pathway often requires both larger doses and special, often painful delivery devices using electric shocks or gold microspheres into person’s skin to deliver the DNA vaccine. Once inside the nucleus, DNA vaccines have a risk of permanently changing a person’s DNA. "
Moderna is the company that's developing Gates' vaccine.
Also:
"Two new technologies are in the COVID testing pipeline as we speak: DNA and RNA vaccines. They have never been released for public use. DNA technology is actually gene therapy. Genes are injected into the body, and they permanently alter the genetic makeup of the recipient in unknown ways. RNA vaccines would carry the danger of triggering autoimmune reactions, meaning the body basically goes to war against itself.
The vaccine that is being tapped by the US government… under its National Institutes of Health…through drug company Moderna…HAS NEVER BEEN USED ON THE PUBLIC BEFORE. IT IS NOT LICENSED FOR PUBLIC USE.
RNA VACCINES AND THE TECHNOLOGY THEY USE ARE ENTIRELY EXPERIMENTAL.
AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF VACCINE BEING RUSHED INTO EXISTENCE IN 90 DAYS.
What in the world could possibly go wrong?
One way to find out is to unleash it on millions of people, stand back, and see.” ~Jon Rappoport
Are you ready for your family and your children to be used as guinea pigs in the largest global health experiment ever conducted?"
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it's the first hit I got in google
Google hits mean nothing. Not even the first one, or the first page. Anyone citing a google search as meaningful (particularly as in "1,000,000,000,000 hits - must be true then", but other contexts apply) has lost the plot.
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it's the first hit I got in google
Google hits mean nothing. Not even the first one, or the first page. Anyone citing a google search as meaningful (particularly as in "1,000,000,000,000 hits - must be true then", but other contexts apply) has lost the plot.
You can even get a crazy (confirmation bias), situation.
E.g. (Not necessarily tried this, but trying to show a concept).
Google search "Absolute 100% proof, the Earth Really, really is flat. 100% definitely right. Definitive Scientific Proof ONLY".
The first 10/20 results, may indeed be crazy/crackpot/nonsense, not entirely 100% accurate/right, websites, which claim it really is true.
I.e. Google thinks you want websites that claim the Earth is flat, because of your search terms. Even though, those websites might be junk.
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https://www.wakingtimes.com/2020/05/15/bill-gates-explains-that-the-covid-vaccine-will-use-experimental-technology-and-permanently-alter-your-dna/ (https://www.wakingtimes.com/2020/05/15/bill-gates-explains-that-the-covid-vaccine-will-use-experimental-technology-and-permanently-alter-your-dna/)
CORRECTION: This article was recently reviewed by Politifact, and out of respect for their efforts to stop the spread of misinformation on Facebook, we have decided to issue this correction. Their comments can be read, here. At issue specifically were two claims that we made.
Firstly, that Gates said for certain the new vaccine will use RNA or DNA technology. We should have stated that Gates implied that there is a very good chance that this technology will be used, but that they don’t yet know for certain.
Secondly, our claim that an RNA or DNA vaccine will permanently alter your DNA is disputed on the grounds that some research into these vaccines shows that vaccines degrade naturally and do not alter DNA.
A quote from Politifact:
Gates never said that the first licensed COVID-19 vaccine would use experimental technology or permanently alter DNA; he said specifically that “we don’t know yet what the COVID-19 vaccine will look like.” The most recent research also shows that RNA vaccines, which are being tested for COVID-19 right now, do degrade naturally and don’t alter DNA permanently.
It does appear that there is some contention over the potential that DNA vaccines may permanently change a person’s DNA, as highlighted in this white paper from biotech company Moderna, a leading developer of RNA vaccine technology:
“DNA vaccine work began thirty years ago, but as yet there are no licensed DNA vaccines and most remain in Phase 1 testing.
(Figure 5) The key challenge associated with DNA vaccines is that they must penetrate the cell nucleus (crossing two membranes; the cytoplasm and the nucleus). The DNA must then be transcribed in the nucleus into mRNA before moving to the cytoplasm to stimulate antigen production. This core complex pathway often requires both larger doses and special, often painful delivery devices using electric shocks or gold microspheres into person’s skin to deliver the DNA vaccine. Once inside the nucleus, DNA vaccines have a risk of permanently changing a person’s DNA. ” [Source]
Given the current state of world affairs, we felt that providing this correction and explanation was the best way to bring clarity and another perspective to this important issue. For any comments or questions, please contact editor@wakingtimes.com.
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it's the first hit I got in google
Google hits mean nothing. Not even the first one, or the first page. Anyone citing a google search as meaningful (particularly as in "1,000,000,000,000 hits - must be true then", but other contexts apply) has lost the plot.
You can even get a crazy (confirmation bias), situation.
E.g. (Not necessarily tried this, but trying to show a concept).
Google search "Absolute 100% proof, the Earth Really, really is flat. 100% definitely right. Definitive Scientific Proof ONLY".
The first 10/20 results, may indeed be crazy/crackpot/nonsense, not entirely 100% accurate/right, websites, which claim it really is true.
I.e. Google thinks you want websites that claim the Earth is flat, because of your search terms. Even though, those websites might be junk.
The only problem with googling for "The earth is flat" is that for the next 6 months, you will be trailed by ads trying to sell you the Brooklyn Bridge at a 30% discount! :D
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The only problem with googling for "The earth is flat" is that for the next 6 months, you will be trailed by ads trying to sell you the Brooklyn Bridge at a 30% discount! :D
Yes, there are some complete fools, you need to look out for them.
30% off, that actually is rather tempting. I might get back to you, about it.
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Oh, if only some sort of technology existed that would allow us to copy entire pieces of an article and paste it. This would assuredly be a huge boon to communication!
From the linked article in question:
https://www.wakingtimes.com/2020/05/15/bill-gates-explains-that-the-covid-vaccine-will-use-experimental-technology-and-permanently-alter-your-dna/ (https://www.wakingtimes.com/2020/05/15/bill-gates-explains-that-the-covid-vaccine-will-use-experimental-technology-and-permanently-alter-your-dna/)
...
Alex Pietrowski, Staff Writer
Waking Times
CORRECTION: This article was recently reviewed by Politifact, and out of respect for their efforts to stop the spread of misinformation on Facebook, we have decided to issue this correction. Their comments can be read, here. At issue specifically were two claims that we made.
Firstly, that Gates said for certain the new vaccine will use RNA or DNA technology. We should have stated that Gates implied that there is a very good chance that this technology will be used, but that they don’t yet know for certain.
Secondly, our claim that an RNA or DNA vaccine will permanently alter your DNA is disputed on the grounds that some research into these vaccines shows that vaccines degrade naturally and do not alter DNA.
A quote from Politifact:
Gates never said that the first licensed COVID-19 vaccine would use experimental technology or permanently alter DNA; he said specifically that “we don’t know yet what the COVID-19 vaccine will look like.” The most recent research also shows that RNA vaccines, which are being tested for COVID-19 right now, do degrade naturally and don’t alter DNA permanently.
It does appear that there is some contention over the potential that DNA vaccines may permanently change a person’s DNA, as highlighted in this white paper from biotech company Moderna, a leading developer of RNA vaccine technology:
“DNA vaccine work began thirty years ago, but as yet there are no licensed DNA vaccines and most remain in Phase 1 testing.
(Figure 5) The key challenge associated with DNA vaccines is that they must penetrate the cell nucleus (crossing two membranes; the cytoplasm and the nucleus). The DNA must then be transcribed in the nucleus into mRNA before moving to the cytoplasm to stimulate antigen production. This core complex pathway often requires both larger doses and special, often painful delivery devices using electric shocks or gold microspheres into person’s skin to deliver the DNA vaccine. Once inside the nucleus, DNA vaccines have a risk of permanently changing a person’s DNA. ” [Source]
...
etc.
It does help if you actually include the "CORRECTION:" bit right at the top of the article.
So yeah, I concur with paulca's "full of shit" label for this quality piece of information.
And on the topic of quality information, I took a semi-random sample from their "Trending now" articles:
https://www.wakingtimes.com/2020/07/08/the-mask-is-the-mark-of-the-beast-in-larval-form/ (https://www.wakingtimes.com/2020/07/08/the-mask-is-the-mark-of-the-beast-in-larval-form/)
The article gets introduced with this header:
NOTE TO FACT CHECKERS: This is an editorial piece. It is my personal opinion. Nothing in the following collection of words can cause physical harm to anyone, nor can any of it be taken as offensive or be considered hate speech by any rational person. As a sovereign being I am entitled to express the thoughts in my head without censorship, punishment, reprisal, or threats against my livelihood. Please respect my right to free speech and self-expression, and respect the rights of those who wish to read this. This is not fake news. It is not misinformation. It is not dangerous, and it certainly is not racist. It is merely one man’s opinion expressed in editorial form. So please, whoever has ears, let them hear.
Dylan Charles, Editor
Waking Times
Translation: Leave me alone, all I am doing is writing some mythical Santa Claus fanfiction! Don't bother me with your pesky attempts at rationality. Bah, humbug!
And besides, RNA/DNA vaccination is sooooo simple and boring. Lets go full honey bee and use horizontal gene transfer. Way cooler!
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3534371/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3534371/)
PS: RNA medication has huge potential, so personally I am all for more research in that area. Now if Homo sapiens could get a fucking grip on its fear of the unknown we could actually be getting somewhere. We've got the Homo part sorted by very definition, but the sapiens part still needs some work.
Yes and when you follow the link in that article to the FULL article you find an apology because they were full of shit and got called out.
Why do you lie? That's not what it says when you follow the link! Look:
"It does appear that there is some contention over the potential that DNA vaccines may permanently change a person’s DNA, as highlighted in this white paper from biotech company Moderna, a leading developer of RNA vaccine technology:
(Figure 5) The key challenge associated with DNA vaccines is that they must penetrate the cell nucleus (crossing two membranes; the cytoplasm and the nucleus). The DNA must then be transcribed in the nucleus into mRNA before moving to the cytoplasm to stimulate antigen production. This core complex pathway often requires both larger doses and special, often painful delivery devices using electric shocks or gold microspheres into person’s skin to deliver the DNA vaccine. Once inside the nucleus, DNA vaccines have a risk of permanently changing a person’s DNA. "
Moderna is the company that's developing Gates' vaccine.
Also:
"Two new technologies are in the COVID testing pipeline as we speak: DNA and RNA vaccines. They have never been released for public use. DNA technology is actually gene therapy. Genes are injected into the body, and they permanently alter the genetic makeup of the recipient in unknown ways. RNA vaccines would carry the danger of triggering autoimmune reactions, meaning the body basically goes to war against itself.
The vaccine that is being tapped by the US government… under its National Institutes of Health…through drug company Moderna…HAS NEVER BEEN USED ON THE PUBLIC BEFORE. IT IS NOT LICENSED FOR PUBLIC USE.
RNA VACCINES AND THE TECHNOLOGY THEY USE ARE ENTIRELY EXPERIMENTAL.
AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF VACCINE BEING RUSHED INTO EXISTENCE IN 90 DAYS.
What in the world could possibly go wrong?
One way to find out is to unleash it on millions of people, stand back, and see.” ~Jon Rappoport
Are you ready for your family and your children to be used as guinea pigs in the largest global health experiment ever conducted?"
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DNA vaccines have a risk of permanently changing a person’s DNA.
Probably worth pointing out, though it shouldn't be necessary, that 'have a risk' is not the same as 'will' or 'intended to'. Indeed, the article starts with "The key challenge associated with DNA vaccines..." which says to me that changing DNA is one of the issue they are working to prevent.
Reading that in the way george has is the same as thinking electricity can fry your brains, therefore anyone promoting electronics kit must be intending to execute you. It's more likely they're working on the reverse.
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I hope that I am not reading kindling for an antivax thread derailment.
A safe and effective vaccine would certainly mitigate the impact of Covid on working from home and in virtually all areas of work, and there are currently some 199 vaccines in development. https://covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org/#vaccines_intro
There are representatives from the following vaccine approaches: DNA-Based, Inactivated Virus, Live Attenuated Virus, Non-Replicating Viral Vector, Protein Subunit, Replicating Viral Vector, RNA-Based, Virus-Like Particle, and a few others which are only in preclinical development.
The Moderna RNA vaccine has entered Phase III, although Phase II and III are being conducted concurrently.
My understanding of an RNA vaccine is that it is really quite similar to a virus EXCEPT that there is no self-replication. The idea is that the vaccine will function to have a cell produce a protein that is recognized as an antigen, thus stimulating immune activity. By selecting production of the “right” protein creation, the stimulated immune activity will be effective against the targeted virus (CoVid19).
While there has never been a licensed RNA vaccine, a good deal of preclinical and clinical research has taken place in the Cancer area. What I gather is that in that research, the aim is for a customized tumor-specific “vaccine” of sorts.
Here is a nice, easy to understand, article explaining RNA vaccines. https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/five-things-you-need-know-about-mrna-vaccines.html
Vaccine safety starts at the preclinical phase and continues in ALL clinical phases. Phase 1 clinical research is specifically for safety (healthy normal volunteers), but II, III, IV and V all target safety.
Phase II is the first clinical trial for efficacy. Phase III being a larger efficacy trial. Again, my understanding is that licensing can be applied for after completion of a successful Phase III trial, but it is not a done deal at that point. For example, there may be limited or no testing of sub-populations like the elderly or very young. Approval could be restricted. Phases IV and V continue regardless of whether it is under the branding of pharmacovigilance, i.e., post release evaluation. Of course, the extent of efficacy is also a factor.
A couple of vaccines are listed as being in Phase III, including Moderna’s.
With nearly 200 vaccines in development, there is a lot of very exciting research going on and the best mitigation against a culture of grievance and ignorance is one of evidence and education.
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DNA vaccines have a risk of permanently changing a person’s DNA.
Probably worth pointing out, though it shouldn't be necessary, that 'have a risk' is not the same as 'will' or 'intended to'. Indeed, the article starts with "The key challenge associated with DNA vaccines..." which says to me that changing DNA is one of the issue they are working to prevent.
It seems that there's a risk that the vaccine's RNA that's programmed to attach to a sequence (of the virus?), mistakenly attaches instead to a similar sequence somewhere else in your DNA => blue screen of death. Or something like that :o
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That's also one of those things, much like data corruption, that won't be noticed until it is far far far too late to do anything about it. Maybe years down the line.
I'm very worried that the social pressure that Covid has placed on the science community, plus the general shit show that academia and research is at the moment, that an important corner is going to be cut somewhere. Add to that the current political optics and objectivity and safety go out of the window. And that may have an excessively large impact on the population.
We've done it before with thalidomide and that was a fairly narrow portion of the population (pregnant women) and caused 80,000 deaths and 20,000 life changing outcomes.
To point out I'm no anti-vaxxer but I distrust the human race to do things properly when given a short time to do it in.
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I guess the safest type of vaccine would be one that we understand well, and already use versions of elsewhere... meaning, quantum computer powered vaccines are probably not the first thing we should be reaching out for! :D
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I guess the safest type of vaccine would be one that we understand well, and already use versions of elsewhere... meaning, quantum computer powered vaccines are probably not the first thing we should be reaching out for! :D
No, the safest vaccine is one that does nothing at all. Edited to add: ...and that nobody thinks it does anything at all.
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I guess the safest type of vaccine would be one that we understand well, and already use versions of elsewhere... meaning, quantum computer powered vaccines are probably not the first thing we should be reaching out for! :D
No, the safest vaccine is one that does nothing at all.
Not if people think it works. :palm:
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I guess the safest type of vaccine would be one that we understand well, and already use versions of elsewhere... meaning, quantum computer powered vaccines are probably not the first thing we should be reaching out for! :D
No, the safest vaccine is one that does nothing at all.
Not if people think it works. :palm:
Please PM me, I have some magic beans to sell you ;D
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I guess the safest type of vaccine would be one that we understand well, and already use versions of elsewhere... meaning, quantum computer powered vaccines are probably not the first thing we should be reaching out for! :D
No, the safest vaccine is one that does nothing at all.
Not if people think it works. :palm:
The latest research says that placebos work - even if you know it's a placebo! :D
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The latest research says that placebos work - even if you know it's a placebo! :D
Depends on how you define "work". They don't have any biological impact/effect, it's purely psychological. That's why the effect (well, "effects" because there isn't just one) is most pronounced on ailments that have only subjective measures: pain, discomfort, "mood". It's why the effects have been recruited by those selling snake oil - "well, even if it only works as a placebo, it still WORKS right?", which for something like, heart disease or cancer, the answer is "no".
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A placebo might help stop your headache, but it's not going to prevent you from contracting a virus.
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A placebo might help stop your headache, but it's not going to prevent you from contracting a virus.
Yes, the idea a placebo will stop you catching a virus is bollocks. SilverSolder was joking. He's clearly not retarded enough to believe that. It's obvious someone who believes there immune, when there's not, is more likely to catch the virus, than someone who knows they're susceptible, because they'll not bother with social distancing or mask wearing. :palm:
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I guess the safest type of vaccine would be one that we understand well, and already use versions of elsewhere... meaning, quantum computer powered vaccines are probably not the first thing we should be reaching out for! :D
No, the safest vaccine is one that does nothing at all.
Not if people think it works. :palm:
The latest research says that placebos work - even if you know it's a placebo! :D
A placebo vaccine could, conceivably, lead to an increased likelihood of infection. If the individual became confident of their perceived immunity, they might engage in high risk behavior that would increase the likelihood of contact with the pathogen and, therefore, increase the likelihood of infection.
It is more of a stretch to conceive of how a placebo vaccine could actually protect against infection. The rationale would likely be some idea that the placebo effect increased the individual’s affect, resulting in an increased resilience. A variation on the “happy people have better immune system functioning than miserable people”.
In either case, you would be very hard-pressed to ever find any legitimate research suggesting either.
The point that I was trying to raise was that all vaccines have risks associated with them. In my view, our job (be us virologists, drug companies or consumers) is to understand the risks to enable us to make evidenced-based decisions.
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The latest research says that placebos work - even if you know it's a placebo! :D
Depends on how you define "work". They don't have any biological impact/effect, it's purely psychological. That's why the effect (well, "effects" because there isn't just one) is most pronounced on ailments that have only subjective measures: pain, discomfort, "mood". It's why the effects have been recruited by those selling snake oil - "well, even if it only works as a placebo, it still WORKS right?", which for something like, heart disease or cancer, the answer is "no".
“They don't have any biological impact/effect, it's purely psychological” I hear and read this sentiment a lot. I contend that it simply makes no sense. Psychological effects, be they pure or otherwise, are physical events; biological, neurological, chemical and so on.
In modern science, there is no logical reason to differentiate a psychological event from a biological event in that manner.
You basically have two choices; psychological effects exist in the physical world or they don’t, that is, they are unreal or perhaps ethereal. The latter is faith-based and with that exception (which could apply to any/all events), I would defy anyone to explain an event that is psychological but not physical (biological, neurological, chemical and so on – the point being that the event resides in the physical world).
You might think that I am being picky, but if you made that statement to a group of neuroscientists, I think you would hear some objections. I hope that many EEs would also see the problem. Yes, sure, this is casual conversation, but even in casual conversation, I don't think that you could stand on a "you know what I mean" defense, because I really don't.
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Psychological effects, be they pure or otherwise, are physical events; biological, neurological, chemical and so on.
In modern science, there is no logical reason to differentiate a psychological event from a biological event in that manner.
I think you are conflating cause and effect. A psychological issue might be the effect of a physical cause, but can't itself be a physical event. A physical effect can be the result of physical event and itself be a physical event.
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I think working from home increases trolling. Some of you are actively trolling, while others are placebos.
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Psychological effects, be they pure or otherwise, are physical events; biological, neurological, chemical and so on.
In modern science, there is no logical reason to differentiate a psychological event from a biological event in that manner.
I think you are conflating cause and effect. A psychological issue might be the effect of a physical cause, but can't itself be a physical event. A physical effect can be the result of physical event and itself be a physical event.
No, I am not conflating cause and effect or anything else. There is no reason to play with words here either. Psychological events are real events in the physical world and there is absolutely no reason to separate them from real events in the physical world. Whether they are patterns of firing neurons in particular pathways or a particular configuration of proteins on the surface of a single neuron or patterns of increases and decreases in the biochemistry of the CNS or many other physical events - most of which is poorly understood but many advancements have been made. Regardless, they are real events in the physical world, whether they are understood well or not at all.
When you remember something that happened to you in your childhood, that memory is a physical entity. It resides in your brain as a physical entity that can be studied and understood. The same goes for what you might call emotions, rainbows, music, art, beauty, and so on.
When you hear a bell, it is not a psychological event (whether you salivate or not) that is somehow outside the realm of the physical world. The sound pressure waves falling on your sensors is the simplest part of hearing that bell - in fact, I can stimulate parts of your brain and you will see and hear things in the absence of any sound and light.
Again, if "psychological" events are not real events in the physical world, then it is incumbent on you to explain to me where/how psychological events exist. Without the exception previously noted, you can't do that, so why try to separate the psychological world from the physical world. It makes no sense because they are not separate worlds.
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When you remember something that happened to you in your childhood, that memory is a physical entity.
It is physical in the sense that some physical event caused it. It is not physical in the sense that it can affect anything (except another psychological state).
What we are talking about here is not what something is made of (i.e. psychological events are made of chemicals, etc) but what something affects downstream (i.e. what taking a poison would do to your body).
That's why I said I think you are conflating things - what something is made of vs what something can do.
When you hear a bell, it is not a psychological event
Actually, it can be.I am profoundly deaf but I hear things all the time. Show me a switch and I'll hear it click, despite being physically incapable of doing so. That's what we understand as a psychological effect, despite some physical chemical event that produces the illusion of hearing.
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When you remember something that happened to you in your childhood, that memory is a physical entity.
It is physical in the sense that some physical event caused it. It is not physical in the sense that it can affect anything (except another psychological state).
What we are talking about here is not what something is made of (i.e. psychological events are made of chemicals, etc) but what something affects downstream (i.e. what taking a poison would do to your body).
That's why I said I think you are conflating things - what something is made of vs what something can do.
I am sorry, but you simply do not make sense to me at all and I mean that sincerely and without hostility. I will repeat, "Again, if "psychological" events are not real events in the physical world, then it is incumbent on you to explain to me where/how psychological events exist". If you want to coin a term "psychological state" and claim that it is not something that exists in the physical world that can be studied and can be understood, I can't relate to you. If you want to disregard the initial statement that I responded to [“They don't have any biological impact/effect, it's purely psychological” ], I can't relate to you.
In short, I am probably done with this part of the discussion because I just don't think it would be productive. I stand by what I said. I received my PhD many years ago and worked successfully for decades as, what you would likely call, a neuroscientist. This is not a new area for me. None of that, by itself, makes me right, but it means that I have been through this discussion with about 50 or so EEs and some of them simply do not want to open their minds to this concept and they will actively fight against understanding the concept. I am ok with that, but I still try, just not as hard as I used to try.
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What about the psychological affect of people partying on as if corona virus had never happend? It looks as if Europe is spiralling close to a 'Covid 2.0' sequel, with a spike in new infections mostly in the 28 to 40 demograph.
Meanwhile in Pommieland, inspired by Britain's lycra fan Prime Minister, the UK Government is encouraging the English to get the economy moving by offering £50 vouchers to repair unloved bicycles, so citizens can "embrace cycling". After all, you'd need to be a nut to use public transport... cough cough cough.
Sounds too good to be true? At time of writing, there are NO vouchers available because there are not enough cycle repair shops or 'qualified mechanics' signed up to implement the scheme. This de-railer is possibly because those who would sign up, are unwilling or unable to indeminify their recon' work to the sum of (from) £2M.
So carry on using the bus, on balance it's safer than being hit by one.
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Or just stay the fuck at home if you can where you don’t have to go on a disease ridden shit box. Incidentally I called them that before Covid :)
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Yeah. Public transport is the ideal place to spread whatever virus is around. I doubt I'll be able to avoid it any longer though but I'm worried what August is going to bring regarding Covid-19 spreading numbers. I (kinda) intend to start using the train again in September but I'm not convinced it is a good idea.
Meanwhile I'm on a holiday in (mostly) France. Face masks and disinfecting hands is required inside shops, restaurants and hotels. I'm wondering what all the hand desinfectant is going to do long term. The measures in hotels are all over the place. Some have the breakfast buffets open as usual, some reduce the number of people at the buffet, others serve breakfast like in a old style shop (point what you want and they put it on your plate) and others require to fill in a form and tell what time you want to have breakfast. At breakfast you get a pre-defined table and a tray with what your ordered.
Biggest problem now is that there is a curfew in Belgium right in the area we need to cross to get home and that same area has been labelled as a no-go zone for people from the NL. I guess we'll just need to make sure to fuel up the car and don't stop anywhere in Belgium.
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all this co v id 19 stuff is simply not making any sense, any more, with all the fearmongering in the mainstream media
just 3o minutes of this type of Tv news , is enough to make most people depressed.
will my privacy be violated if I shop at one of your _____ stores?
so will I be confronted by barrier tape & witches hats at the doorway?
will I be harassed by your team members for not wearing a hazmat suit or balaclava?
will I be refuse service if I do not look like a bank robber?
government recommendations are just that a recommendation, not compulsory
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government recommendations are just that a recommendation, not compulsory
Why do you think they have recommendations? They want to achieve some effect and that will (probably) happen if people follow the recommendations. If people ignore them because they are not compulsory then whatever they want to achieve (probably) won't occur.
Recommendations tend to be a short-term more-or-less requirement. If you prefer, I'm sure they could waste time and effort on drafting yet another law which will be unenforceable and come into force just after the horse has bolted and then remain on the books to catch you out.
A recommendation is preferable over a mandatory requirement because you can have special exceptions without problems. But they have to be special - if you basically ignore it all just because, then it's likely to be made mandatory and lead to hassle for everyone. Not to mention, in the 'co v id 19' case, ignore-able by those who have got fucked in the meantime.
The only issue should be: is this a reasonable way to achieve that end, and is it an end I want to be part of. Yes? Just do what they recommend.
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all this co v id 19 stuff is simply not making any sense, any more, with all the fearmongering in the mainstream media
just 3o minutes of this type of Tv news , is enough to make most people depressed.
will my privacy be violated if I shop at one of your _____ stores?
so will I be confronted by barrier tape & witches hats at the doorway?
will I be harassed by your team members for not wearing a hazmat suit or balaclava?
will I be refuse service if I do not look like a bank robber?
government recommendations are just that a recommendation, not compulsory
Will you anything???
Simple, just DOWNLOAD THE APP. The App will protect us. It's big tech from BIG TECH COMPANIES like Twister, Grindr and Facemask.
And WORK FROM HOME, unless you're the Amazon or Deliveroo pony. But those kids are always under 30 and IMMUNE from corona virus by their social media associations. Maybe not imune from COVID-2.0 the sequel, but you're always safe working from home with an App and always wearing a FACEMASK. A facemask will protect zoom office workers when the virus goes online through the 5G network. And make your wife wear a face covering HIJAB, because she kind of looks hot that way. Also prepare to be QUARANTINED for 14 days, should the idiot from across the street be stupid enough to cross over the white line drawn down the middle of the street. Finally, complete a CONTACT TRACING FORM, just in case the your teenage son thought the hand sanitizer bottle you hid under the crypto-mining rig was extra sticky vodka shots... and you can no longer wash the zombie blood stains off your trembling gun hand.
Where the ********** were we all this time last year :-//
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At time of writing, there are NO vouchers available because there are not enough cycle repair shops or 'qualified mechanics' signed up to implement the scheme. This de-railer is possibly because those who would sign up, are unwilling or unable to indeminify their recon' work to the sum of (from) £2M.
any business dealing with the public without public liability insurance is rather stupid.One factor for the lack of mechanics signing up is the usual goverbents IT skills,the link to sign up to register as a mechanic takes you to a page for claiming the vouchers,not to register as a mechanic
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all this co v id 19 stuff is simply not making any sense, any more, with all the fearmongering in the mainstream media
just 3o minutes of this type of Tv news , is enough to make most people depressed.
Every one I know is saying the same thing. They have now stopped watching the news entirely, it's just too depressing, it's just non-stop covid coverage, all of it just stoking fear.
My mum said she'd just go insane if she watches a minute more of it.
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If anyone in southern California has needed a COVID test but been unable to get one... I'm in the ER right now and they're doing them, seemingly, for the hell of it. So I guess head there with some BS symptoms. I've been trying for weeks to get sleep and stress tests done but unable because I couldn't get tested anywhere. Guess today that'll change. :-+
EDIT: My neighbor here has covid like pneumonia (results of x-ray)... STAY AWAY FROM THE HOSPITALS. Haha, just my luck I get near COVID guy and I have constant lung issues.
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all this co v id 19 stuff is simply not making any sense, any more, with all the fearmongering in the mainstream media
just 3o minutes of this type of Tv news , is enough to make most people depressed.
Every one I know is saying the same thing. They have now stopped watching the news entirely, it's just too depressing, it's just non-stop covid coverage, all of it just stoking fear.
My mum said she'd just go insane if she watches a minute more of it.
Best advice if you are bored enough to watch the news. Buy a bottle of scotch. Everytime the word "Coronavirus" is said, take a shot.
You'll not care anymore in no time at all.
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Burp.
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I heard a psychologist explain that human will is like a muscle: Even a strong muscle fails under continuous strain, it's a matter of time.
Resisting the temptation to be sloppy with anti-infection rules will become very difficult for all of us, but there are differences. Lockdowns were meant to help people forget and relax, but again there are differences. Some people just don't want to understand and keep banging their head against the wall. That's such a waste. Soon vaccines may open a door in that wall.
Regards, Dieter
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"Scott Morrison says it's time to get Australians back to work after coronavirus shutdown"
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/05/scott-morrison-says-its-time-to-get-australians-back-to-work-after-coronavirus-shutdown)
Translation: "I'm sick of this crap too, let's get back to work, but make it appear slow because I have a lot of pissed of Karen's on social media who will kick up a stink, so I have to keep them happy."
I had to look that up - A "Karen" is typically used to refer to an entitled mum, who can be a bit irritating with her frequent requests to "talk to the manager." She may also have a giant bob haircut and drive a Volvo. https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/how-to-know-if-you-re-a-karen-and-other-terms-your-kids-have-adopted-20191120-p53cfa.html (https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/how-to-know-if-you-re-a-karen-and-other-terms-your-kids-have-adopted-20191120-p53cfa.html)
/-----/
So, back in May, I didn't know what a "Karen" was. Since then it has become quite a popular term in the US, but it slowly began to take on a different meaning - at least different than the definition that I cited - search for "karen+on+a+rampage"
Today, I read this news report: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/business/dominos-new-zealand-karen-offer-scli-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/business/dominos-new-zealand-karen-offer-scli-intl/index.html)
In NZ and Aus., Domino's pizza chain (I'm truly sorry that the other side of the globe also has to be insulted by that "pizza", but that's another topic) ran a "Karen" pizza deal (good Karens only - "all "mask wearing, law abiding Karens... that aren't, well, 'Karens'" were eligible to enter online for a chance to win a free pizza.").
Now, they had to cancel it and apologize in NZ (but apparently it is still active in Aus.) - usual if-then story.
Oh the humanity!
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We have plenty of Karens in my locale. Our street cafes are crammed with them on a sunny day, along with their bottoxed mothers - and randomly parked 4x4s. Often refusing to use hand sanitiser when entering a store because, for real quote, poor Karen "can't be bothered."
It is now the law in the UK to wear a face covering in ALL stores. A law to which even Karen abides, especially if the face mask is (fake) Dolche&Gabbana. No guys, it's Karen's teenage kids that the rules never apply to. Never a face mask, never social distancing, never a freakin clue. To them they are more at risk from Chlamydia than Covid19. And that's no issue with antibiotics. Just pehaps Karen's kids might listen to the social media influencers they follow, because their brains are in neutral when it comes to any other form of messaging.
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We have plenty of Karens in my locale. Our street cafes are crammed with them on a sunny day, along with their bottoxed mothers - and randomly parked 4x4s. Often refusing to use hand sanitiser when entering a store because, for real quote, poor Karen "can't be bothered."
Its sad the name Karen has become associated with "woman with a superiority complex". It must be horrible for the many perfectly nice decent Karens out there.
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Its sad the name Karen has become associated with "woman with a superiority complex". It must be horrible for the many perfectly nice decent Karens out there.
So true. One of the best EE's that I've ever known is a Karen. In the UK the name Stacey might be used instead.
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We have plenty of Karens in my locale. Our street cafes are crammed with them on a sunny day, along with their bottoxed mothers - and randomly parked 4x4s. Often refusing to use hand sanitiser when entering a store because, for real quote, poor Karen "can't be bothered."
Its sad the name Karen has become associated with "woman with a superiority complex". It must be horrible for the many perfectly nice decent Karens out there.
Where were you for the name "Dick"? :-DD
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We have plenty of Karens in my locale. Our street cafes are crammed with them on a sunny day, along with their bottoxed mothers - and randomly parked 4x4s. Often refusing to use hand sanitiser when entering a store because, for real quote, poor Karen "can't be bothered."
Its sad the name Karen has become associated with "woman with a superiority complex". It must be horrible for the many perfectly nice decent Karens out there.
Where were you for the name "Dick"? :-DD
Why should I have sympathy with someone who is Rich by another name?.
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We have plenty of Karens in my locale. Our street cafes are crammed with them on a sunny day, along with their bottoxed mothers - and randomly parked 4x4s. Often refusing to use hand sanitiser when entering a store because, for real quote, poor Karen "can't be bothered."
Its sad the name Karen has become associated with "woman with a superiority complex". It must be horrible for the many perfectly nice decent Karens out there.
Where were you for the name "Dick"? :-DD
Why should I have sympathy with someone who is Rich by another name?.
Karen entered the English language from Danish, where it has been a short form of "Katherine" since medieval times. It became popular in the English-speaking world in the 1940s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_(name) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_(name))
Ahhh, so it is a sexist thing...no sympathy for a Dick who is a Richard, but sympathy for a Karen who is a Katherine. I am so outraged ;)
Here is a history (or one view) about the evolution (at least in US) that I spoke about. https://www.insider.com/karen-meme-origin-the-history-of-calling-women-karen-white-2020-5 (https://www.insider.com/karen-meme-origin-the-history-of-calling-women-karen-white-2020-5)
I think Dominos got caught with their meme consultant with his pants down (skirt up?).
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Here is a history (or one view) about the evolution (at least in US) that I spoke about. https://www.insider.com/karen-meme-origin-the-history-of-calling-women-karen-white-2020-5 (https://www.insider.com/karen-meme-origin-the-history-of-calling-women-karen-white-2020-5)
Its interesting how fast these name based memes flip. When I was growing up in 1960s North London, every girl I'd met called Sharon was from an affluent family. By the 80s this name had become a UK meme for someone low class.
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You can thank Viz for that with the fat slags.
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what do you call an overreaction? not sick , not dying , not deceased , only 3 or 5 positive tests,
wow mass panic, :scared: 80,000 tourists evacuated from a Vietnamese city because of only 3 or 5 positive cases. :o
is this nonsensical human behavior,
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html (https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html)
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what do you call an overreaction? not sick , not dying , not deceased , only 3 or 5 positive tests,
wow mass panic, :scared: 80,000 tourists evacuated from a Vietnamese city because of only 3 or 5 positive cases. :o
is this nonsensical human behavior,
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html (https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html)
Allow me the pleasure of saying "told you so" when, back in March, I posted:
And in some ways this is going to be like Y2K: a potentially serious issue but some big efforts made to contain it so nothing really bad happens, and then people say well, what's the fuss? It wasn't anything.
Look at Brazil for what these 'over-reacted' but currently relatively virus-free places could become if precautions aren't taken early and hard.
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what do you call an overreaction? not sick , not dying , not deceased , only 3 or 5 positive tests,
wow mass panic, :scared: 80,000 tourists evacuated from a Vietnamese city because of only 3 or 5 positive cases. :o
is this nonsensical human behavior,
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html (https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html)
I don't know why some people seem to fail to understand basic exponentials. If one person on average passes the disease on to more than one other person, then it will spread rapidly. We call the average number of people, a single person infects, the R number, with R0 being when nothing is done: social distancing, mask wearing, contact tracing etc. In the case of COVID-19, R0 is typically around 3, so it doesn't take a genius to conclude it can spread very quickly.
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If everyone were infected tomorrow, that would be the best thing that could happen.
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If everyone were infected tomorrow, that would be the best thing that could happen.
Be very carefull what you wish for.
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If everyone were infected tomorrow, that would be the best thing that could happen.
Find help.
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If everyone were infected tomorrow, that would be the best thing that could happen.
7,800,000,000 in the world.
Assume a TENTH of a percent mortality (one could certainly claim a defensible 1%, but let's go with one tenth of that).
So, your input is that 7,800,000 deaths is the best thing that could happen. Are you up for a troll of the week award or just a poster child for mental health?
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Vietnam has been very good at keeping infections down, also as of a few days ago they had no deaths, I think they may now have had just one. Thats a country of around 90 million people, population wise. Compare that to the US. Vietnam has a much higher population density than the US, also.
Australia is similar culturally, but again, much much mucjh lower rates of infection and deaths.
Why is it so high here? Its as if we are deliberately doing everything wrong.
what do you call an overreaction? not sick , not dying , not deceased , only 3 or 5 positive tests,
wow mass panic, :scared: 80,000 tourists evacuated from a Vietnamese city because of only 3 or 5 positive cases. :o
is this nonsensical human behavior,
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html (https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html)
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all this co v id 19 stuff is simply not making any sense, any more, with all the fearmongering in the mainstream media
just 3o minutes of this type of Tv news , is enough to make most people depressed.
Every one I know is saying the same thing. They have now stopped watching the news entirely, it's just too depressing, it's just non-stop covid coverage, all of it just stoking fear.
My mum said she'd just go insane if she watches a minute more of it.
Yes this is non-stop. But this is on some level even worse than during the peak period, when people were mostly confined. Sure that was also non-stop back then, but the situation was felt as exceptional. Why worse now IMO? Reason is simple - that was drastic, but most people were thinking this was just a temporary thing and were seeing this as kind of a "fight" period, after which we would have "won" and the whole thing would be over. That's called hope.
Now were are in the second phase - we could call it the "chronic" phase. Every new case makes the headlines (barely exxagerating here). As the situation is getting "chronic", it's thus becoming unclear when or if this is ever really going to be over. Of course this is depressing. There's nothing worse than the loss of hope, and everything in the media kind of conveys that feeling.
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If everyone were infected tomorrow, that would be the best thing that could happen.
7,800,000,000 in the world.
Assume a TENTH of a percent mortality (one could certainly claim a defensible 1%, but let's go with one tenth of that).
So, your input is that 7,800,000 deaths is the best thing that could happen.
And what makes you think that they won't die the same when they get infected later?
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Going back to the Karen thing for just a sec, and how it came to be. I thought it was simply a less egregious version of what they are: K Hunts.
Funny that the name Richard was referred to. It's just a more sophisticated type of playground name calling.
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Vietnam has been very good at keeping infections down, also as of a few days ago they had no deaths, I think they may now have had just one. Thats a country of around 90 million people, population wise. Compare that to the US. Vietnam has a much higher population density than the US, also.
Australia is similar culturally, but again, much much mucjh lower rates of infection and deaths.
Why is it so high here? Its as if we are deliberately doing everything wrong.
what do you call an overreaction? not sick , not dying , not deceased , only 3 or 5 positive tests,
wow mass panic, :scared: 80,000 tourists evacuated from a Vietnamese city because of only 3 or 5 positive cases. :o
is this nonsensical human behavior,
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html (https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/around-80000-tourists-evacuated-from-vietnamese-city-due-to-coronavirus.html)
How I see it is that too many people are pointing to the wrong over-reactions. I am unfamiliar with @jonovid but there is a point there but it is overshadowed by far more over-reactions.
Here are new cases for Australia:
[attachimg=1]
I used to tout Australia as a country that the US should be trying to emulate with regard to their handling. What happened? An over-reaction or an under-reaction? Make no mistake about it, I would dye my nut hairs orange and wear a MAGA hat if I could get Florida, California, Texas, Arizone and several other states in the US to look like that.
The problem is not the "over-reactions" that @jonovid mention it is the ongoing "over-reactions" in the other direction.
Not just the Karen who, in a hissy fit, throws her groceries on the floor because someone has the audacity to tell her that masks are required. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZQXoZRO7FM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZQXoZRO7FM)
But the US Congressman, a rabid anti-masker, who upon learning that he tested positive (because he had access to a fast test that is nearly unavailable six months into the pandemic of the century, to all but the most elite, despite the ability of the most powerful country in the world that has specific provisions to allow the POTUS to literally direct companies to manufacture emergency equipment) had the unmitigated audacity to say that he can't help believe that he got infected BECAUSE he was wearing a mask. Something so outrageous that I complained about it four months ago to the day https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2992420/#msg2992420 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2992420/#msg2992420)
But he also REQUIRES his staff to show up in person (how's that for the impact of covid19 on working from home - you don't get to do that for appearances) and his staff is berated if they wear a mask.
It is a POTUS who STILL touts a drug that has been investigated thoroughly and found to NOT have efficacy against Covid19 and where the CDC revoked emergency use authorization. But still, he want physicians to prescribe it, with the inherent liabilities and based, apparently on the recommendations of physicians like this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LxcTueCnwA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LxcTueCnwA)
(and yes, she can sing a slightly different, but still unscientific, tune
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZjzKbl13y0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZjzKbl13y0)
You know I can go one because those are typical of the over-reactions that we get ever day.
The TS recently posted about how depressing the news was and I envy the ability of those to "turn it off". I expect the media to over broadcast everything, including the greatest pandemic of the century. But NO legitimate person has claimed that we need these restrictions for the next 10 years. NO legitimate person is saying that we have to live in a depression-era economy for the next 10 years.
What most people know is that we have to live with these restrictions for a TEMPORARY amount of time - until therapeutics become available and are successfully deployed. THAT is how this story ends. But our grievance culture means that far too many people will REFUSE to do what the majority knows must be done and that worsens the pandemic in every sense.
You bet it is depressing, it is a chronic stressor that meets the requirement for causing exogenous depression in any normal person. It is also frustrating and aggravating and demoralizing and significantly decreases my faith in people to behave in a way that they must, to help everybody.
And then, of course, are the folks who have become very sick and the families of those who have died....and the ones that are yet to come.
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If everyone were infected tomorrow, that would be the best thing that could happen.
7,800,000,000 in the world.
Assume a TENTH of a percent mortality (one could certainly claim a defensible 1%, but let's go with one tenth of that).
So, your input is that 7,800,000 deaths is the best thing that could happen.
And what makes you think that they won't die the same when they get infected later?
If lots of people get COVID-19, at the same time, hospitals will be overwhelmed and won't be able to treat everyone. If the same number of people are infected, over a much longer period, then hospitals will be able to treat everyone and save most of them. The difference between the two case fatality rates could be as much as a factor of ten, then there are all of the other people who have other treatable illnesses, who won't be saved. During the peak, in the UK, there were a good number of excess deaths from other illnesses because the hospitals were too busy dealing with COVID-19 patients.
Another thing to bear in mind is the severity of the illness is dependant on infectious dose. If you only come into contact with one sick person and get infected, then you'll have a much milder disease, than if you were to be infected by many people, as would be the case if a huge proportion of the population were infected.
Then there's the fact that a large number of young, healthy people can take awhile to get over it. If everyone were to get infected, over a very short period of time, things could go very badly.
In a multistate telephone survey of symptomatic adults who had a positive outpatient test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection, 35% had not returned to their usual state of health when interviewed 2–3 weeks after testing. Among persons aged 18–34 years with no chronic medical conditions, one in five had not returned to their usual state of health.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm)
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If everyone were infected tomorrow, that would be the best thing that could happen.
7,800,000,000 in the world.
Assume a TENTH of a percent mortality (one could certainly claim a defensible 1%, but let's go with one tenth of that).
So, your input is that 7,800,000 deaths is the best thing that could happen.
And what makes you think that they won't die the same when they get infected later?
NO, I am not going to indulge you because that is what you want - attention to an offensive contrarian view that is, frankly, TFS to indulge with anything other than this:
[attachimg=1]
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If lots of people get COVID-19, at the same time, hospitals will be overwhelmed and won't be able to treat everyone. If the same number of people are infected, over a much longer period, then hospitals will be able to treat everyone and save most of them. The difference between the two case fatality rates could be as much as a factor of ten, then there are all of the other people who have other treatable illnesses, who won't be saved. During the peak, in the UK, there were a good number of excess deaths from other illnesses because the hospitals were too busy dealing with COVID-19 patients.
Another thing to bear in mind is the severity of the illness is dependant on infectious dose. If you only come into contact with one sick person and get infected, then you'll have a much milder disease, than if you were to be infected by many people, as would be the case if a huge proportion of the population were infected.
Then there's the fact that a large number of young, healthy people can take awhile to get over it. If everyone were to get infected, over a very short period of time, things could go very badly.
Look:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/u5LagTrnHltz/ (https://www.bitchute.com/video/u5LagTrnHltz/)
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https://theprepared.com/blog/dr-ericksons-viral-covid-19-briefing-video-is-dangerously-wrong/ (https://theprepared.com/blog/dr-ericksons-viral-covid-19-briefing-video-is-dangerously-wrong/)
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g731sd/dr_erickson_covid19_briefing/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g731sd/dr_erickson_covid19_briefing/)
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/29/health/california-doctors-coronavirus-claims/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/29/health/california-doctors-coronavirus-claims/index.html)
There's a reason YouTube took that down.
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Sorry but I've had enough of covid on this forum, people just cannot help themselves to stay on topic so this last remaining thread on the topic is now locked.
Please do not post any more covid related stuff on the forum, it's had it's run.