It's a good reply, but not a "perfect refutation" - that would have sources. This had none - just pure speculation.
This is because one doesn’t include source references in normal speech or writing?
I know - I didn't mean that as critique against you, I rarely give any sources myself either. I just disputed the idea that it's "perfect refutation". It isn't that. It's usual chat - speculation - thought-provoking stuff, non-guaranteed correctness - that's all fine. To Analog Kid, it was more than that, because it happened to align with his
feelings.
To me, the idea that 5-10 AI giants would be able to do significant damage by finding books that exist in maybe just ~10-20 of copies seems far-fetched by simple logic. The baseline is, after all, that
anyone can buy those same copies and put them in their own shelf, where no one can ever access it again, anyway. Anthropic does not need 100 copies of the same book. It needs 1. So the damage,
per book, is the same as any random individual buying the same single book. The fact that providers don't share is not many-orders-of-magnitude thing, it's a single order of magnitude thing because there can be roughly ~10 AI giants capable of creating large enough training they need "every book". IOW - if we have 1000 AI companies building large models, we have much bigger questions about energy and resource use.
So
that part of the (implied, and not by you) story does not make sense. What would make the pieces click? Gold rush would explain what you are seeing - not tens, not even hundreds, but
thousands of relatively small companies, backed by some millions of investor money, working in parallel, everyone trying to do poorly planned actions, when in reality they never can produce a working, large AI model. They could total to emptying supply of semi-rare books, from which some hundreds hard-to-find copies exist.
If that theory is correct, I have no solution nor suggestion to it. Forbidding others than Anthropic and OpenAI and Google from developing AI obviously isn't an option, even though those vendors would very much like it.