Author Topic: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot  (Read 6535 times)

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Offline BBBbbbTopic starter

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Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« on: August 20, 2021, 06:22:52 am »
https://electrek.co/2021/08/19/tesla-bot-humanoid-robot/

The idea itself is not dodgy, but considering his track record and the fact that the announcement looks like a child's wishful thinking really makes me doubt this one is plausible. (oh yeah and how complicated it is to do it, especially from scratch)

I'm actually thinking that he announced it just to distract from the latest fails that are now reaching the public through the media - hyperloop and solar roofs...
 

Offline Haenk

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2021, 08:04:47 am »
It's made from 100% hot air.
Considering how far away Amazons Alexa and Boston Dynamics/Hyundai are from his powerful PowerPoint slides, it's nothing more than wishful thinking - both having years/decades of technology research into AI and robotics.
 

Offline BBBbbbTopic starter

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2021, 08:26:25 am »
It's made from 100% hot air.
Considering how far away Amazons Alexa and Boston Dynamics/Hyundai are from his powerful PowerPoint slides, it's nothing more than wishful thinking - both having years/decades of technology research into AI and robotics.
but but he has dancers:
https://youtu.be/HUP6Z5voiS8?t=56

Take that Boston's parkour-ing robots
 

Offline Cyberdragon

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2021, 08:27:31 pm »
It's made from 100% hot air.
Considering how far away Amazons Alexa and Boston Dynamics/Hyundai are from his powerful PowerPoint slides, it's nothing more than wishful thinking - both having years/decades of technology research into AI and robotics.
but but he has dancers:
https://youtu.be/HUP6Z5voiS8?t=56

Take that Boston's parkour-ing robots

Ah...so a scaled up version of a kid's dancing robot. Would make a nice present for stupidly rich kids...
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Offline fcb

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2021, 08:46:15 pm »
I watched the whole presentation - and understood about 10% of it (if that). Looks like he's taking his physics, ground up approach with AI - pretty successful so far.

My guess is that "Optimus" is not for this planet, but for Mars and the Moon.

Also, I'm wondering why they didn't buy Boston Dynamics, perhaps the rate of iteration is too slow??
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Online wraper

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2021, 09:06:45 pm »
Considering how far away Amazons Alexa and Boston Dynamics/Hyundai are from his powerful PowerPoint slides, it's nothing more than wishful thinking - both having years/decades of technology research into AI and robotics.
Tesla cars are robots on wheels, they have in-house AI chips for driving and now also for AI learning.
 

Offline Microdoser

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2021, 11:41:16 pm »
It's made from 100% hot air.
Considering how far away Amazons Alexa and Boston Dynamics/Hyundai are from his powerful PowerPoint slides, it's nothing more than wishful thinking - both having years/decades of technology research into AI and robotics.
but but he has dancers:
https://youtu.be/HUP6Z5voiS8?t=56

Take that Boston's parkour-ing robots

Yeah, right. Anyone who doesn't think that is just a guy in a suit has never seen a guy in a suit...
 

Online Bud

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2021, 11:56:44 pm »
Tesla bot... = bot controlled by Tesla.
Another invasion channel into people' s privacy.
It won't move its finger without connection to the mothership. And if you are a non- co pliant citizen or missed your monthly subscription fee you will have to lift your grocceries yourself, once the bot is turned off remotely.
Facebook-free life and Rigol-free shack.
 

Online Bud

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2021, 12:04:32 am »
"Automata" movie from 2014 with Antonio Banderas, about relationships of humans with humanoid robots, available on youtube.
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Offline james_s

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2021, 12:24:08 am »
I'm sure they'll manage to make a few prototypes that can walk around and do a few very carefully programmed tasks but it's not going to be a useful general purpose device, not by a long shot, not for decades at least. For all the hype there is about "AI" the vast majority of "AI" I've seen is a joke. As soon as you stray the slightest bit off the beaten path it falls flat on its face.
 
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Offline fcb

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2021, 07:58:35 am »
Musk stated that AI day was about recruiting engineers to work on AI.

The humanoid robot allows them to continually expand and retain staff, long after the full-self-driving is ‘solved’ - very attractive problems to spend you’re life working on.

Likely that Tesla will be known as an AI company in the deep future.
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Offline Kjelt

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2021, 08:05:29 am »
Quote
To carry your groceries
:palm:
What I could need is a powered exosceleton enabling me to lift 200 kg plates, that I would like.
 

Offline AVGresponding

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2021, 01:34:54 pm »
Musk stated that AI day was about recruiting engineers to work on AI.

The humanoid robot allows them to continually expand and retain staff, long after the full-self-driving is ‘solved’ - very attractive problems to spend you’re life working on.

Likely that Tesla will be known as an AI company in the deep future.

Something they are still nowhere near to achieving, despite the hype.

More likely they'll be exposed for the stoner-led hype-factory that they are, and before anyone jumps in with "oh but they are the most valuable car company in the world", I'd caution you to research what investment bubbles look like.
nuqDaq yuch Dapol?
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Offline fcb

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2021, 02:08:30 pm »
Musk stated that AI day was about recruiting engineers to work on AI.

The humanoid robot allows them to continually expand and retain staff, long after the full-self-driving is ‘solved’ - very attractive problems to spend you’re life working on.

Likely that Tesla will be known as an AI company in the deep future.

Something they are still nowhere near to achieving, despite the hype.

More likely they'll be exposed for the stoner-led hype-factory that they are, and before anyone jumps in with "oh but they are the most valuable car company in the world", I'd caution you to research what investment bubbles look like.

Do you think FSD will NOT happen? Ever? When do you think it will be solved? Or are you imagining the bulk of people still actually driving cars in say 50 years??
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Offline bd139

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2021, 02:19:24 pm »
Tesla Bot will be expensive and entirely be useless and the only notable feature is it will have a mode that makes it fart.

As for self driving I’m with AVGresponding here. It is not going to happen. The world is too difficult to reason about for humans doing this and they have a better sensor system and AI than Tesla will ever achieve.

Technology only works well in fully constrained scenarios and driving is not one of them. You have to start moving society to a planned and constrained model for this to ever work. And if you’re ever going to do that it’s a better investment to solve higher level problems than driving which is mostly a consequence of poor distribution of work and supply.

A good example of a fully constrained system is the Heathrow rapid transit system or DLR. Build that on a country wide scale and throw the whole driving thing out of the window.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2021, 02:23:59 pm by bd139 »
 
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Offline bd139

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2021, 02:20:53 pm »
Quote
To carry your groceries
:palm:
What I could need is a powered exosceleton enabling me to lift 200 kg plates, that I would like.

Only if you can fight aliens with it.
 

Offline madires

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2021, 02:51:23 pm »
The bot which will be as autonomous as the car's "Autopilot" which is just a level 2 assistant system. So you need to be prepared that the bot will hit the wall sooner or later. >:D
 
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Offline BBBbbbTopic starter

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2021, 03:28:36 pm »
I do expect FSD to happen in the next 20 years, probably in the next 5 years there will be some level of automation limited to highways.
I just don't expect it to come from Tesla. Others seem to be taking a much more serious approach.

As for self driving I’m with AVGresponding here. It is not going to happen. The world is too difficult to reason about for humans doing this and they have a better sensor system and AI than Tesla will ever achieve.

Technology only works well in fully constrained scenarios and driving is not one of them. You have to start moving society to a planned and constrained model for this to ever work. And if you’re ever going to do that it’s a better investment to solve higher level problems than driving which is mostly a consequence of poor distribution of work and supply.

A good example of a fully constrained system is the Heathrow rapid transit system or DLR. Build that on a country wide scale and throw the whole driving thing out of the window.

Well that's the thing, don't expect only cars to advance in order to have FSD, infrastructure needs evolution as well.
Look how it was when cars were just starting - pedestrians and cars sharing the street, no split, signalization, slow movement... infrastructure evolved...
 

Online wraper

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2021, 04:13:03 pm »
I do expect FSD to happen in the next 20 years, probably in the next 5 years there will be some level of automation limited to highways.
I just don't expect it to come from Tesla. Others seem to be taking a much more serious approach.
Serious like "technically level 3" from Mercedes on geofenced highway with a 60 km/h (37 mph) speed limit:-DD
Isn't in-house development their own AI ASICs for driving and training not serious enough?
« Last Edit: August 22, 2021, 04:22:12 pm by wraper »
 

Offline fcb

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2021, 05:07:26 pm »
The bot which will be as autonomous as the car's "Autopilot" which is just a level 2 assistant system. So you need to be prepared that the bot will hit the wall sooner or later. >:D
Arguably the version of Tesla FSD that's on limited release now is Level 4 under majority of driving miles. 

The stuff on path planning and analysing/predicting what everyone else is going to do was mind-blowing. Did anyone actually watch the whole presentation???
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Online wraper

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2021, 07:02:08 pm »
 

Offline BBBbbbTopic starter

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2021, 09:56:33 pm »
Serious like "technically level 3" from Mercedes on geofenced highway with a 60 km/h (37 mph) speed limit:-DD
Isn't in-house development their own AI ASICs for driving and training not serious enough?
Serious like not ditching radars, so you don't have to solve some issues with it, at the expense of added safety. Radars are useful even in non-autonomous cars.
Serious like not using customers as QA. I would have expected the issue of Teslas crashing into emergency vehicles to have been caught in testing. or ensuring your driver can not use a simple trick to sleep behind the wheel.
Take a deeper look at what how Waymo has progressed. I am also quite interested in what Honda's lvl3 looks like outside of Japan, as they are far from Tesla's approach of overpromising  and underdelivering.

The thing with the German OEMs, if one of them advances, others will follow, as they are intertwined quite a lot through their suppliers.

Regarding the AI ASIC inhouse development - so what? the point is in having (not promising) a quality product. Musk is huge on vertical integration, something automotive industry has evolved away from, spinning off their parts into tier 1 suppliers in order to increase efficiency. Not sure such high level of vertical integration Tesla is aiming for is a good thing. What guaranties success of what NVIDIA will offer? or many other AI ASIC startups popping all over for the past several years?
 

Offline james_s

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2021, 05:20:22 am »
Do you think FSD will NOT happen? Ever? When do you think it will be solved? Or are you imagining the bulk of people still actually driving cars in say 50 years??

I don't think it will happen ever with the current hardware, a handful of cheap video cameras is a woefully inadequate sensor array for anything more than advanced driver assistance under near ideal conditions. I think it's virtually certain that the majority of people will be manually driving cars in 50 years, that is not really that far away and we are AT LEAST a decade or two from a viable self driving car that does not need a human driver to be ready to take over. A major problem with that is it is fundamentally flawed to expect a human driver to be ready to take over. There are few things more boring than supervising a machine that almost never needs you do do anything and it is a proven fact that the mind finds other things to focus on. Unless someone can fundamentally modify human psychology that is an insurmountable fault in the idea. Tesla has gotten about 70% there but what they don't seem to acknowledge is that each of the next 10% increments is about an order of magnitude more difficult than the last.

Personally I really don't see the appeal of owning a self driving car, the whole point of owning a car is that I get to drive it myself. I already have access to a self driving car when I don't feel like driving, it's called a "bus" and I don't have to find a place to park it, deal with payments, licensing fees, insurance, maintenance or anything else. I just hop on board, scan my pass and it takes me where I want to go. If I want something a little more personal there are rideshare and taxi services. I wish Tesla would focus on the powertrain and battery development because they're already off to a great start there. I've driven a Tesla a handful of times and it was fantastic, I really enjoyed the silky smooth and absolutely insanely powerful drivetrain, I really liked being able to charge it up with 300 miles for about $10 worth of electricity, it was great fun to drive. I absolutely hated the touchscreen interface in lieu of almost all physical controls though, that's a deal breaker for me and I wouldn't buy one for that reason alone. The self driving stuff is just a waste of time, it's a gimmick that I don't need or want, especially in a car that is such fantastic fun to drive yourself. If you're going to have self driving it may as well be a Prius, a reliable and efficient but incredibly boring transportation appliance.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2021, 05:31:18 pm by james_s »
 
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Offline mnementh

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2021, 02:34:38 pm »
Quote
To carry your groceries
:palm:
What I could need is a powered exoskeleton enabling me to lift 200 kg plates, that I would like.

Only if you can fight aliens with it.

Heinlein thought of this already; and as he predicted, we now have people-controlled "Waldoes" doing all sorts of remote presence and force multiplication tasks. Disney developed tech based on the idea for its Animatronics products, and even modern medicine has benefited from the idea.

I guess my question for Musk is the same one we should all have:

Is it 3 Laws Safe...?

mnem
 :-/O
« Last Edit: August 23, 2021, 02:43:30 pm by mnementh »
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Offline bd139

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Re: Half man half announcement - Musk announces Tesla Bot
« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2021, 02:38:21 pm »
Monty Python already discussed that particular facet of this topic in immaculate scientific detail

 
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