Author Topic: One of 99 red baloons goes by...  (Read 15839 times)

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Online SiliconWizard

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #50 on: February 07, 2023, 07:58:05 pm »
Balloon image may not be to scale - Unless the Chinese have invented extra light helium

Hydrogen is lighter than helium, and unlike helium it is renewable. Seems like a no-brainer for unmanned balloons where the flammability isn't an issue.

Uh, weight is certainly a factor, but renewable? Does that even matter for fricking surveillance balloons? I certainly hope it never does. ::)
 
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Offline Gyro

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #51 on: February 07, 2023, 08:26:28 pm »
Helium was once a virtually useless and unregarded gas. With the advent of cryogenics, superconductors, MRI machines etc. It is now a precious and limited resource.
Best Regards, Chris
 
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Offline SeanB

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #52 on: February 07, 2023, 09:13:23 pm »
Hydrogen fill is not an issue, just it means it is a little touchy at launch, but the extra payload capacity is likely well worth it, as it is anyway a disposable item, and having it with extra bouyancy, and the ability to cut away ballast as needed is a big advantage. Plus there is no shortage of the gas in ultra pure form, and if you lose one or two during launch the blast is not really bad, over 95% hydrogen just burns at the interface, and very fast. You might even still be able to reuse the payload, as all the flash will be rising up rapidly.
 
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Offline TimFox

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #53 on: February 07, 2023, 09:36:59 pm »
Helium was once a virtually useless and unregarded gas. With the advent of cryogenics, superconductors, MRI machines etc. It is now a precious and limited resource.

The name "helium" comes from the fact that before any helium gas was found on Earth, the element had been noted in the optical spectrum of the Sun (helios in Greek).
 
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Offline floobydust

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #54 on: February 07, 2023, 09:47:31 pm »
Rocket propulsion uses a shit ton of helium, although some claim party balloons are a huge waster. Can't take helium for granted. Nixie lives matter.

I was going to calculate the balloon's buoyancy and then wondered how it controlled its altitude, that seemed to be the malfunction it was flying too low.
 
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Offline james_s

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #55 on: February 07, 2023, 10:00:07 pm »
Uh, weight is certainly a factor, but renewable? Does that even matter for fricking surveillance balloons? I certainly hope it never does. ::)

Helium is a very valuable substance, when released it floats out of the atmosphere and is lost forever. It is created through radioactive decay but that process takes a very long time. I haven't heard much recently but there was some panic a while back as our strategic helium reserves were being sold off, apparently we're going to run out at some point. Prices did go way, way up.

Hydrogen on the other hand is plentiful, it can be extracted from water or hydrocarbons. We're not in any danger of running out. It's a superior lifting gas too, the only issue, albeit a serious one for manned vehicles is flammability.
 
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Offline TimFox

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #56 on: February 07, 2023, 10:09:10 pm »
When the importance of helium was first understood in the period between the wars, the only known source was helium trapped in natural gas deposits in Oklahoma and nearby.
The American government imposed mandatory recovery and conservation, and refused to sell it to the Nazis for dirigibles.  Helium Act of 1925, 50 USC § 161
During the craze for deregulation (in the Clinton administration), this was replaced by the Helium Privatization Act of 1996, just as MRI was catching on.
Public Law 104–273 was enacted as an amendment to the previous helium laws.
110 STAT. 3318 PUBLIC LAW 104–273—OCT. 9, 1996

Among other features of this privatization law:

Section 8 is amended to read as follows:
‘‘SEC. 8. ELIMINATION OF STOCKPILE.
‘‘(a) STOCKPILE SALES.—
‘‘(1) COMMENCEMENT.—Not later than January 1, 2005,
the Secretary shall commence offering for sale crude helium
from helium reserves owned by the United States in such
amounts as would be necessary to dispose of all such helium
reserves in excess of 600,000,000 cubic feet on a straight-
line basis between such date and January 1, 2015.
‘‘(2) TIMES OF SALE.—The sales shall be at such times
during each year and in such lots as the Secretary determines,
in consultation with the helium industry, to be necessary to
carry out this subsection with minimum market disruption.
‘‘(3) PRICE.—The price for all sales under paragraph (1),
as determined by the Secretary in consultation with the helium
industry, shall be such price as will ensure repayment of the
amounts required to be repaid to the Treasury under section
6(c).
‘‘(b) DISCOVERY OF ADDITIONAL RESERVES.—The discovery of
additional helium reserves shall not affect the duty of the Secretary
to make sales of helium under subsection (a).’’
 
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Offline BravoV

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #57 on: February 08, 2023, 01:51:24 pm »
Funny sidenote: Former chancellor Helmut Kohl knew decades ago, that all of his phones were tapped, so while on the road to some meeting, he directed his driver to drive some random route and stop at a random phone booth (literally everywhere to be found in the 80s) and then did his important calls. He even joked about it when meeting with communist politicians in his guest house. So they knew that he knew.

Occupied country don't have the luxury of so called sovereignty.

Another funny sidenote : These balloon's effect on superpower as US impressed Zelensky so much, that after asking for German Leopard tanks, he specifically requested the singer "Nena" to contribute to the war with Russia.  >:D

Yes, there are clues (military tactics) in this video on the balloon thingies, Pentagon generals need to watch too.  :-DD



 
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Offline Zero999

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #58 on: February 08, 2023, 10:48:35 pm »
I'm baffled as to why they didn't shoot it down before it got to the ocean, it would likely make it a lot easier to recover and analyze, and throughout a large portion of its trip across the country the population is so sparse that the chance of it hitting someone or even damaging their property is negligible.

As far as possibly ticking off China, if we go with their story that it's a weather platform then it's already far off course and thus has either completed its mission or failed. Since it's a free flying balloon it's obviously expendable so they would have no legitimate reason to complain about it being shot down. Whatever it was intended to do, it almost certainly already did it and sent back the data.
I believe China. It's a rogue weather balloon. It doesn't appear to have a steering or propulsion system. Look at its trajectory. It matches the prevailing wind direction, which is from the south west over the North Pacific, then north-west over North America.

https://etc.usf.edu/maps/pages/4300/4374/4374.htm

 

Offline james_s

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #59 on: February 08, 2023, 10:53:19 pm »
If that's the case why would they be asking for the wreckage back? Surely it's expendable. Seems like it also would have been in the best interest of international diplomacy to proactively reach out and let the US government know it blew off course and was coming, and share technological details of the payload. I suspect if we had something similar that passed over China they would make a big show of shooting it down and accuse us of spying.
 

Offline RJSV

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #60 on: February 08, 2023, 11:19:37 pm »
I could make up LESS RIDICULOUS stories.
Made up:
   The squirrels are 'spying' on my backyard.  Occasionally engage in 'light' sabatoge...oh heck, I can't make up crap anywhere near to the ballo
 

Offline Stray Electron

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #61 on: February 08, 2023, 11:22:13 pm »
I'm baffled as to why they didn't shoot it down before it got to the ocean, it would likely make it a lot easier to recover and analyze, and throughout a large portion of its trip across the country the population is so sparse that the chance of it hitting someone or even damaging their property is negligible.

As far as possibly ticking off China, if we go with their story that it's a weather platform then it's already far off course and thus has either completed its mission or failed. Since it's a free flying balloon it's obviously expendable so they would have no legitimate reason to complain about it being shot down. Whatever it was intended to do, it almost certainly already did it and sent back the data.
I believe China. It's a rogue weather balloon. It doesn't appear to have a steering or propulsion system. Look at its trajectory. It matches the prevailing wind direction, which is from the south west over the North Pacific, then north-west over North America.

https://etc.usf.edu/maps/pages/4300/4374/4374.htm



   A couple of things. 1) Just because it followed the prevailing ind patterns doesn't mean that it's a weather balloon.  Ask yourself, how many of these have we seen flying over China or any of it's neighboring counties? 

   2) The news a few nights ago reported that US officials have already recovered part of the wreckage and they stated that there were explosives found in the wreckage. presumably self-destruct charges.  I don't think that weather balloons typically carry self-destruct charges.
 

Offline Kim Christensen

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #62 on: February 09, 2023, 12:34:20 am »
   2) The news a few nights ago reported that US officials have already recovered part of the wreckage and they stated that there were explosives found in the wreckage. presumably self-destruct charges.  I don't think that weather balloons typically carry self-destruct charges.

The only thing I saw was the US Navy saying they were treating it as if it might have explosives as a precautionary measure. This is standard procedure.
 

Offline james_s

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #63 on: February 09, 2023, 02:39:48 am »
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough, personally I would be very surprised if it had explosives on board, that could be taken as an act of war.

I'm betting this is far from the first of its kind. I suspect there have been numerous others like it, this one malfunctioned and flew much lower than intended which resulted in detection.
 

Offline Ed.Kloonk

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #64 on: February 09, 2023, 03:00:12 am »
I'm sure we'll find out soon enough, personally I would be very surprised if it had explosives on board, that could be taken as an act of war.


It also depends on how loose the description of explosives is and in what context.
iratus parum formica
 

Offline lyxmoo

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #65 on: February 09, 2023, 03:05:58 am »
Oh, My God, US is threaten by a white soft-baloons

Must fight back by a F22 and 11 Carrieres, all air-force go~!
 

Online coppercone2

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #66 on: February 09, 2023, 03:51:09 am »
well it seems that they have a bearing on the balloon command and control center, in Hainan. I want to see if the wreckage has equipment not characteristic of weather data.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3850024-chinese-spy-balloon-part-of-larger-surveillance-program-us-intel/

 

Offline james_s

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #67 on: February 09, 2023, 07:31:35 am »
Oh, My God, US is threaten by a white soft-baloons

Must fight back by a F22 and 11 Carrieres, all air-force go~!

Let's fly a balloon with cameras on it over any other country, maybe Russia or China would be a good choice, and see how non-threatened they are. I bet either one would go ballistic. The balloon itself isn't the issue, it's the payload.
 

Offline BravoV

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #68 on: February 09, 2023, 08:12:02 am »
Let's fly a balloon with cameras on it over any other country, maybe Russia or China would be a good choice, and see how non-threatened they are. I bet either one would go ballistic. The balloon itself isn't the issue, it's the payload.

C'mon .. here to enlighten you further .. Why spy on "banana" ? ...  :-DD

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bYmoX3oHweM


Ok, on serious note, feel threatened ? Then US just has few minutes or even seconds to react if they want to use the balloon thingy.  >:D

Read an article here -> Balloon With 3 Hypersonic Missiles Tested By China In 2018


-> Chinese state-owned television aired footage of a high-altitude balloon dropping hypersonic weapons in 2018.


 
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Offline Zero999

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #69 on: February 09, 2023, 08:42:59 am »
It's too big and obvious for it to be a spy balloon and why would they send a spy balloon to just go whether the wind takes it?

I don't really trust what the US authorities say either.  They could easily use this to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment and support for some form of retaliation.

I think we should keep an open mind until, an in depth analysis and pictures of the load are in the public domain.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2023, 09:41:00 am by Zero999 »
 

Online coppercone2

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #70 on: February 09, 2023, 08:49:51 am »
Not sure if you are familiar with balloons but they are capable of being steered. The most basic ones, if you lower and raise height, you go into different wind current, like a hot air balloon, you can decrease or increase the flame to find a favorable wind current. It has a dual chamber, so basically you suck in extra air to weigh it down, and expel air to lift it up, and combine this with metro logical data to make a navigation path. The chinese balloon had an air pump and sat com, which it could use to find favorable winds maybe, via weather satellite.


Similar to how a ship has a ballast.

That's how people use balloons for transport. Its not reliable or very maneuverable, but they can take you where you wanna go. People use clouds for navigation since you can tell how they are being pushed and at what altitude.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2023, 08:53:02 am by coppercone2 »
 

Offline BravoV

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #71 on: February 09, 2023, 09:02:51 am »
... use this to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment and support for some form of retaliation.

Thats exactly what is happening, and just watch the recent diplomatic hostilities toward China for the last 36 months, all just to prepare the whole country for war by the warmongering neocons in Washington and Pentagon.

Remember, US motto ... A day without war, is a day wasted.

After Afghanistan war money dried up, now the MIC and US congress will rejoice, as bigger money is coming ... YAY !  >:D

Offline Zero999

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #72 on: February 09, 2023, 09:54:16 am »
Not sure if you are familiar with balloons but they are capable of being steered. The most basic ones, if you lower and raise height, you go into different wind current, like a hot air balloon, you can decrease or increase the flame to find a favorable wind current. It has a dual chamber, so basically you suck in extra air to weigh it down, and expel air to lift it up, and combine this with metro logical data to make a navigation path. The chinese balloon had an air pump and sat com, which it could use to find favorable winds maybe, via weather satellite.


Similar to how a ship has a ballast.

That's how people use balloons for transport. Its not reliable or very maneuverable, but they can take you where you wanna go. People use clouds for navigation since you can tell how they are being pushed and at what altitude.
It's very limited. The fact it took the path of the prevailing wind shows there wasn't much control over it. If they want to spy, there are more effective and discrete methods than a giant balloon.
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #73 on: February 09, 2023, 05:15:08 pm »
I think we should keep an open mind until, an in depth analysis and pictures of the load are in the public domain.

Your open mind was probably why you said:

Quote
I believe China. It's a rogue weather balloon.
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: One of 99 red baloons goes by...
« Reply #74 on: February 09, 2023, 05:16:31 pm »
Quote
If they want to spy, there are more effective and discrete methods than a giant balloon.

OTOH, a common or garden weather balloon in plain sight is pretty effective at being invisible. And deniable.
 


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