Re-freezing Arctic with a submarine

[dietert1]

Yes, i think i have my house in order. Ten years ago we spent about 50K in photovoltaic generators instead of buying a new car. The monthly return roughly compensates all we spend on electricity, natural gas, water and gasoline, so i think there is a rough balance. At least we tried. We also had to buy two air conditioning units recently for the office and lab to be productive during summer. This summer both units have been running continuously for about six or seven weeks. 2018 it was more like three months. So that balance may change rapidly.

I find that comment about becoming prime minister by "improving the personal career" very stupid, since nowadays prime ministers can do little about industrial CO2 emissions. What will happen if somebody decides to block all imports of fossil fuels and all its derivatives like plastic? The fate of Greta Thunberg and her followers is decided during the next 10 or 20 years. All those aged 50 and above should think very carefully. They will sooner or later find themselves in the hands of those angry young people. They won't just take away your car. It can turn into a real mess.

Regards, Dieter

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

The fate of Greta Thunberg and her followers is decided during the next 10 or 20 years.

There's no way to prove that => it's a theory (or a belief?). Do not state it as fact.



The facts are: 1) thanks to FF we all now live much better than ever 2) We can't stop burning FF because we need the energy 3) Nobody knows what to do when we run out of FF 4) it isn't a political problem because we don't know yet what the solution is going to be, and 5) None of the hundreds of thousands of very well paid public money sucker employees that pretend to be working the problem, e.g. the +30 thousand attending the UN climate summit in Madrid this week, is going to fix a thing, just see what they did in Paris:

All those aged 50 and above should think very carefully. They will sooner or later find themselves in the hands of those angry young people. They won't just take away your car. It can turn into a real mess.

The true disaster will be when we finally begin to run out of FF if we've not yet found a proper substitute, not the AGW.

[Marco]

It is a political problem.

Resource wise going full electric with either PV+wind turbines+PHES OR tons of nuclear is feasible. It will take obscene amounts of labour and natural resources to begin with, but we have enough of both. The problem is redirecting it without triggering economic collapse and WW3 in the process.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

But that's already happening, look, Dieter for example has put PVs on his roof because he has his own roof to put them in and could pay for them, but it's not as easy everywhere for everybody, it's expensive and you can't double or triple the price of the energy, and you can't force everybody to buy a new (EV) car, and also not everything can run off electricity. To be optimistic: it's already happening albeit slowly.

[SiliconWizard]

We also just need to look at realistic figures as to how going fully electric for everything really lowers CO2 emissions (and additionally, doesn't emit other nasty stuff and/or consume scare resources). Because for the time being, a few studies seem to show otherwise.

[dietert1]

Yes, i believe in science and engineering more than in anything else. If anybody stands up and says the complete scientific community is wrong in climate studies, that's very silly.

I remember well when they stopped the breeder reactor project in Kalkar in Germany in 1991 after spending more than seven billion Deutsche Mark. Almost thirty years ago and for me it marks a turning point. Until then everybody thought humans can do what they want - e.g. go to the moon - and technology will solve all problems of mankind, like nutrition, energy etc. Nowadays we know better and we have to be very careful.

Regards, Dieter

[Marco]

you can't double or triple the price of the energy

If we were obedient peons and we just needed to be fed, sheltered and transported to our jobs and we had some AI direct resources optimally and globally you could increase it by far far more.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Yes, i believe in science and engineering more than in anything else. If anybody stands up and says the complete scientific community is wrong in climate studies, that's very silly.

[dietert1]

Today i understood something about climate change. If we want to reduce CO2 emissions during the next 20 or 30 years, we can do something now. If we continue to sell cars that run on gasoline, the owners will drive them and burn fossils for another 10 or 15 years. If we sell heating installations for houses based on natural gas or diesel, their owners will use them and burn fossils for another 30 years.
This consideration demonstrates the importance of shutting down sales of technical equipment based on burning fossils. Introducing the electric car would be a good beginning. Shutting down sales of fossil based equipment will take time, too. So, as long as that won't even start, we know that our governments are unable/unwilling to take care.

Regards, Dieter

[coppice]

Today i understood something about climate change. If we want to reduce CO2 emissions during the next 20 or 30 years, we can do something now. If we continue to sell cars that run on gasoline, the owners will drive them and burn fossils for another 10 or 15 years. If we sell heating installations for houses based on natural gas or diesel, their owners will use them and burn fossils for another 30 years.
This consideration demonstrates the importance of shutting down sales of technical equipment based on burning fossils. Introducing the electric car would be a good beginning. Shutting down sales of fossil based equipment will take time, too. So, as long as that won't even start, we know that our governments are unable/unwilling to take care.

Regards, Dieter

Some people like to complain that industry isn't moving fast enough, without thinking through the reasons things change at a certain pace. If you tried to equip the whole planet with the kinds of electric cars being built in the last 10 years, you would quickly run out of some key raw materials. When industry talks about the reducing costs of batteries, and the need for them to get even cheaper to become a mass market, what lies behind that is an unsustainable demand for key materials in the existing designs. Tesla has changed its batteries quite a lot in the last 10 years, mostly reducing the scale of the materials problem, but what is usually reported is just that their batteries are getting cheaper. There is equivalence here.

[Marco]

Today i understood something about climate change. If we want to reduce CO2 emissions during the next 20 or 30 years, we can do something now. If we continue to sell cars that run on gasoline, the owners will drive them and burn fossils for another 10 or 15 years. If we sell heating installations for houses based on natural gas or diesel, their owners will use them and burn fossils for another 30 years.
This consideration demonstrates the importance of shutting down sales of technical equipment based on burning fossils. Introducing the electric car would be a good beginning. Shutting down sales of fossil based equipment will take time, too. So, as long as that won't even start, we know that our governments are unable/unwilling to take care.

I've seen environmentalists make this argument about replacing polluting coal power plants with less polluting ones and they do have a point. Once you have a spiffy "clean" coal powered plant, you're going to use it till the end of its working life. We have plenty of old equipment we can patch up for decades, it might be slightly dirtier than the newest fossil fueled equipment ... but just patching them up is cleaner than building new.

Gas turbines could conceivably be converted to run on hydrogen from power to gas storage though ... so the equation is foggier there, if that's where we are going then starting to move now is helpful.

[dietert1]

Yes, i wrote that shutting down sales of fossil fuel using equipment will take time, too. Anyway that's the action to start with.

With regard to the slow introduction of electric cars: In Germany a senior scientist (Prof. Schuh) in Aachen founded a factory for small electric cars (e.Go mobile). They were meant to be delivered at the end of 2018. Then Volkswagen entered into the project to "help" and nothing happened. This year Volkswagen presented their own concept of an electric car, but i haven't seen a single one on the streets. I guess, as long as they are allowed to sell fossil based cars, they won't sell electric cars.

And it's not only about cars, it's about ships, airplanes whatsoever. For example the latest "action" of the German government did not even mention trucks. A real shame. Maybe being forced to buy an electric car will keep existing cars in operation some extra years, which will also be a good thing to reduce CO2 emissions. Maybe some people won't be able to afford an electric car and use public transportation instead. I noticed that for new private homes in Germany the majority now have electrical heat pumps instead of burning natural gas.

About patching existing equipment: I think that sooner or later gas stations will disappear and owning a fossil burning car will be something like a special hobby. Like owning a cathode ray based scope.

Regards, Dieter

[PlainName]

With regard to the slow introduction of electric cars

They've only recently become viable, and even now aren't suitable for many purposes. You can't expect things to swap over in 6 months, so it will always be a slow start and gather momentum over time. Once technology improves them some more and/or people make allowances or figure the pluses outweigh the practical disadvantages, more of them will be shifted. Once we hit the long tail (which could be a long way off) it then becomes feasible for the governments to start making it disadvantageous to use fossil-fuel vehicles.

[coppice]

This year Volkswagen presented their own concept of an electric car, but i haven't seen a single one on the streets.

What VW presented this year is the ID3, which is supposed to be in pilot production now, but won't be on sale until Spring or Summer 2020 when they say they will have their supply lines operating in volume. If you haven't seen any VW electric cars on the streets, perhaps you haven't been looking. They don't sell in huge numbers, but the e-Golf and the e-Up and been in production for some time now. I think they were mostly developed as compliance cars for California, but they do sell in Europe.

[m12lrpv]

LOL this thread is insane.

Thunderf00t did a couple of great videos recently about the true numbers regarding climate change, man's contribution to it, what true impact there is and what can really be done about it.

It should be mandatory viewing because it ignores the political, "religious" and fantasy based hysteria of climate change and deals with the facts particularly in regards to meaningful action to "reverse" it.

[PlainName]

It should be mandatory viewing

If it's anything like his normal videos, only in penal institutions as non-marking punishment.

[coppice]

It should be mandatory viewing

If it's anything like his normal videos, only in penal institutions as non-marking punishment.

Isn't that cruel and unusual punishment?

[coppercone2]

can they refreeze by launching their missiles to cause nuclear winter? the method presented is convoluted for no reason. The technology appears to already be on the shelf

classic case of not knowing the market

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Thunderf00t did a couple of great videos recently [...] It should be mandatory viewing because it ignores the political, "religious" and fantasy based hysteria of climate change and deals with the facts particularly in regards to meaningful action to "reverse" it.

I've watched this one:



He claims 1W/m² of warming due to CO2/AGW, but with those numbers, it would take only 1.4 years (*) to increase the atmosphere temp by 1ºC. Shirley shumthing is wrong because that's clearly not happening. And the not happening part is the problem, because what the data we have tells us is that the problems the models predict don't exist, and that's been being the norm since the 90's, year after year and model after model of bogus theories from the IPCC.

The reason why TF is a believer is that as everybody knows very well, in every university around the world, if you want your piece of the Climate Change budget pie, to keep getting funds for your projects you better be a believer.

(*) Warming power 1.13e14 Watts, mass of the atmosphere 5.11e15 tons, specific heat 1.012 J/ºk/g =>

5.11e15*1e3*1e3*1.012/1.13e14/60/60/24/365.25 = 1.4 years.

[BravoV]

can they refreeze by launching their missiles to cause nuclear winter? the method presented is convoluted for no reason. The technology appears to already be on the shelf

classic case of not knowing the market

You mean like your president that want to nuke a hurricane to stop it ? 

[coppercone2]

can they refreeze by launching their missiles to cause nuclear winter? the method presented is convoluted for no reason. The technology appears to already be on the shelf

classic case of not knowing the market

You mean like your president that want to nuke a hurricane to stop it ? 

would you prefer america wastes money on a contract to put fly swatters on submarines instead? its efficient to use nukes in this case

[coppice]

Thunderf00t did a couple of great videos recently [...] It should be mandatory viewing because it ignores the political, "religious" and fantasy based hysteria of climate change and deals with the facts particularly in regards to meaningful action to "reverse" it.

I've watched this one:



He claims 1W/m² of warming due to CO2/AGW, but with those numbers, it would take only 1.4 years (*) to increase the atmosphere temp by 1ºC. Shirley shumthing is wrong because that's clearly not happening. And the not happening part is the problem, because what the data we have tells us is that the problems the models predict don't exist, and that's been being the norm since the 90's, year after year and model after model of bogus theories from the IPCC.

The reason why TF is a believer is that as everybody knows very well, in every university around the world, if you want your piece of the AGW budget pie, to keep getting funds for your projects you better be a believer.

(*) Warming power 1.13e14 Watts, mass of the atmosphere 5.11e15 tons, specific heat 1.012 J/ºk/g =>

5.11e15*1e3*1e3*1.012/1.13e14/60/60/24/365.25 = 1.4 years.

The extra heat doesn't just heat the atmosphere. Most of the heat seems to be going into the ocean right now, although the land of obviously heating up too.

[dietert1]

Yes, and Superman will protect the USA, Australia and Brazil from global heating. Thunderf00t must be his uncle and this afternoon he will explain to the President what it's all about. Holy ...

Regards, Dieter

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

(*) Warming power 1.13e14 Watts, mass of the atmosphere 5.11e15 tons, specific heat 1.012 J/ºk/g =>

5.11e15*1e3*1e3*1.012/1.13e14/60/60/24/365.25 = 1.4 years.

The extra heat doesn't just heat the atmosphere. Most of the heat seems to be going into the ocean right now, although the land of obviously heating up too.

With that power it would take 1536 years to elevate the oceans' temp by 1ºC: Oceans volume 1332000000 km³, specific heat 4 J/ºk/g, density 1028 kg/m³ =>

(1332000000*1e3*1e3*1e3*1028*1e3*4)/1.13e14/60/60/24/365.25= 1536 years.

[Kilrah]

Maybe being forced to buy an electric car will keep existing cars in operation some extra years, which will also be a good thing to reduce CO2 emissions. Maybe some people won't be able to afford an electric car and use public transportation instead.

You're suggesting people would somehow just accept not being able to afford personal transportation as if it was nothing. No way in hell, you'd be starting a revolution and the government who led to that would end up in jail or shot down...

Something like this will never work unless it's smooth. The smooth transition is on the way and has been for a decade, but it'll take another 2 before it can really happen without public outcry.
People don't want change, so people who will bring it are those who were bathed into the whole matter since they were kids. When those kids are 30 and can start pushing things the way that's been hammered into their head since they were born then you'll get some change. By then the old farts who've had it their way for their whole life and would not change a thing ever will be retired and not have a say anymore, and those in the middle who aren't so partial to any will follow the change as long as it's smooth enough.