Author Topic: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?  (Read 46634 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #300 on: April 28, 2022, 09:43:20 am »
Dave in San Francisco and surrounding cities have electric busses with overhead wires, electric trollies with an overhead wire, diesel busses, all electric busses, natural gas powered busses, hydrogen powered busses, and busses with fuel cells.

Diesel is by far the worst.  The exhaust, noise and pollution makes them the worst.
You are so right about the overhead electric wires for all of the reasons you mentioned.  You did’t mention what happens when a car hits one of the poles and the wires fall down.

The electric are much quieter and can easily change routes.

You know what was not mentioned was long haul bus routes.  In the US we have Greyhound.  I can’s see those switching to electric anytime soon.

If you think diesel/car exhaust pollution is bad, check out Derek/Veritasium’s video on lead in gasoline.



Here’s a video on how charged particles from the sun and earthquakes.

 

Offline AVGresponding

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #301 on: April 28, 2022, 01:15:22 pm »
There's also "Adam Something"

FYI, I've done a debunking video of one of Adam Something's claims.
Not saying his debunks aren't good, but in this case I think he's wrong.


Yes, I think a lot  of the problem in this regard is when people make sweeping claims like "this is the solution, we should use it everywhere" without looking at what local needs, resources, and obstacles may be.

I understand the desire to find "universal" solutions, but more often than not in my experience a customised local solution is the real long term answer. Of course that usually also requires careful thought and possibly more time, higher initial costs and/or lower profits, making it less attractive to politicians and the modern corporate finance model.
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Online SiliconWizard

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #302 on: April 28, 2022, 05:28:24 pm »
Diesel is by far the worst.  The exhaust, noise and pollution makes them the worst.

Well, yes. Yet, for over two decades, at least in Europe, diesel had been heavily promoted as better for the environment due to the fact a typical diesel engine of the same HP would emit less CO2, the absolute global obsession shadowing almost all other sources of pollution. And there were lots of "experts" and "studies" showing it was "better".

The problem is always to look at the big picture, rather than focus on small, politically-driven details. And the same goes for EVs now. While they are better for the environment on a number of points, the big picture is still far, far from being all that great.

All in all, politically-driven "science" is not science, yet it's now everywhere.
 
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #303 on: April 28, 2022, 11:34:51 pm »
In the US you can hire a team of well pedigreed scientists to say anything you pay them to say including Nobel Prize winners.  It's an entire industry with trade shows, and talks.  In the US there was a book and video called Merchants of Doubt.  (Very good.)  Book/video is worth reading/watching.  There's a related video called "Sugar Coated" that's about the Merchants who where hired by the sugar industry.

I would you be curious to know if in Europe you have corrupt scientists and your own Merchants of Doubt industry.

By any chance did the researchers talk about lead in fuel?  Far worse and more deadly than ionizing radiation.


 

Online SiliconWizard

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #304 on: April 29, 2022, 01:45:54 am »
In the US you can hire a team of well pedigreed scientists to say anything you pay them to say including Nobel Prize winners.

Yes. That's called corruption, and it's literally everywhere.

I would you be curious to know if in Europe you have corrupt scientists and your own Merchants of Doubt industry.

Of course.

And now anyway, due to the global nature of our world, the problem is global. There's a definite global network of corruption. It's not just local anymore.
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #305 on: April 29, 2022, 02:12:03 am »
You know what was not mentioned was long haul bus routes.  In the US we have Greyhound.  I can’s see those switching to electric anytime soon.

It's kinda similar to the EV truck problem and electric jets problem. i.e. the weight in batteries you have to haul. Both are possible but there is going to be a fairly narrow windows of practicality. More so for the electric jet.
EV's actually get poor efficiency on lang haul drivign at speed, I encourted this last weeked and tweeted about it. My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.
 

Offline Black Phoenix

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #306 on: April 29, 2022, 03:15:17 am »

My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.

Because of how urban traffic is with the constants reduction speeds and stops/uses of the electrical engine regeneration who recharges the battery even if midly right?

While in a long haul the profile is constant speed with not a lot of chances to reduce speed to take advantage of such functions right?

I never had an electric car, although I drove some for pontual times.
 

Online BrianHG

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #307 on: April 29, 2022, 04:46:08 am »
EV's actually get poor efficiency on lang haul drivign at speed, I encourted this last weeked and tweeted about it. My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.
I wonder is putting gears back into the drive-train would help here.  I know that some electric motor designs have a sweet spot in efficiency just after the initial few hundred RPM.  Though, a 2 or 3 speed automatic transmission may be less efficient in the entire drive train.  The high RPM when operating with a single gear drive train may be tuned for efficiency during initial acceleration as such vehicles may be designed to operate in city traffic.

I know at speed, everything is wind then tire on concrete resistance, but is the electric drive train is something like ~85% at 100km/h while the sweet spot tuning of the motor is ~95% between 5 and 30km/h, traveling at 100km/h for an hour with the high wind resistance, that 10% power efficiency drop will add to your diminished battery performance.
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Offline thinkfat

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #308 on: April 29, 2022, 07:06:28 am »

My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.

Because of how urban traffic is with the constants reduction speeds and stops/uses of the electrical engine regeneration who recharges the battery even if midly right?

While in a long haul the profile is constant speed with not a lot of chances to reduce speed to take advantage of such functions right?

I never had an electric car, although I drove some for pontual times.

Also, because aerodynamic drag increases with speed squared. In the city it's almost negligible, not so on the highway. I have yet to see a Tesla on German Autobahn do more than 130km/h for extended periods. They all come along speeding past me, eventually I find them crawling on the right lane to the next supercharger.
Everybody likes gadgets. Until they try to make them.
 
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Offline EEVblog

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #309 on: April 29, 2022, 08:48:15 am »

My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.

Because of how urban traffic is with the constants reduction speeds and stops/uses of the electrical engine regeneration who recharges the battery even if midly right?

Wind drag at speed, even on my IONIQ which has one of the lowest drag coefficients on the market.

 

Online BrianHG

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #310 on: April 29, 2022, 09:36:32 am »

My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.

Because of how urban traffic is with the constants reduction speeds and stops/uses of the electrical engine regeneration who recharges the battery even if midly right?

Wind drag at speed, even on my IONIQ which has one of the lowest drag coefficients on the market.
Regardless of wind, don't underestimate the level of drag which rubber on concrete generates a huge drag at high speeds.  See example given here @3:20:



Slightly over-inflate your tires and at highway speeds, you will gain a noticeable improvement with electric car's highway range as well as it's range overall.
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Online SiliconWizard

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #311 on: April 29, 2022, 05:10:23 pm »

My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.

Because of how urban traffic is with the constants reduction speeds and stops/uses of the electrical engine regeneration who recharges the battery even if midly right?

While in a long haul the profile is constant speed with not a lot of chances to reduce speed to take advantage of such functions right?

Well, there's just the fact that, as with any other kind of vehicle, the average speed will be much lower in urban traffic, and EVs are pretty efficient in that context. Of course mileage will decrease as speed increases. It's more "linear" with EVs, while efficiency severely drops in urban traffic for ICE vehicles.

I would also consider thermal issues. At elevated speed, batteries and power electronics heat up dramatically and so the overall efficiency decreases.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2022, 05:12:49 pm by SiliconWizard »
 

Offline AVGresponding

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #312 on: April 29, 2022, 05:59:57 pm »

My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.

Because of how urban traffic is with the constants reduction speeds and stops/uses of the electrical engine regeneration who recharges the battery even if midly right?

While in a long haul the profile is constant speed with not a lot of chances to reduce speed to take advantage of such functions right?

Well, there's just the fact that, as with any other kind of vehicle, the average speed will be much lower in urban traffic, and EVs are pretty efficient in that context. Of course mileage will decrease as speed increases. It's more "linear" with EVs, while efficiency severely drops in urban traffic for ICE vehicles.

I would also consider thermal issues. At elevated speed, batteries and power electronics heat up dramatically and so the overall efficiency decreases.

And this is why a well designed hybrid will probably be the best answer for most people for quite some time to come.
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Offline Black Phoenix

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #313 on: April 30, 2022, 12:21:48 am »

My EV battery efficiency dropped by at least 25% due the long haul driving speed compared to city driving.

Because of how urban traffic is with the constants reduction speeds and stops/uses of the electrical engine regeneration who recharges the battery even if midly right?

While in a long haul the profile is constant speed with not a lot of chances to reduce speed to take advantage of such functions right?

Well, there's just the fact that, as with any other kind of vehicle, the average speed will be much lower in urban traffic, and EVs are pretty efficient in that context. Of course mileage will decrease as speed increases. It's more "linear" with EVs, while efficiency severely drops in urban traffic for ICE vehicles.

I would also consider thermal issues. At elevated speed, batteries and power electronics heat up dramatically and so the overall efficiency decreases.

Thank you everyone for all the insights about that.

And this is why a well designed hybrid will probably be the best answer for most people for quite some time to come.

I was exactly thinking that, a Hybrid with a somewhat good battery range (like 100Km) for city use on battery that you can then change to ICE for the times you need to do longer trips at an increased high speed while recharging the batteries at the same time.

It really comes into consideration now because here in Mainland China currently this is the last year of benefits of anyone who wants to buy an electric car, so brands are currently pricing them very aggressively.

I'm also in the market for a car, but since I never owned an hybrid or electric, just normal ICE ones, my experience is limited to test drives and small ownership like renting for a week.

Currently electric are in big expansion here, but after the end of the benefits for buying one this year is when I'm going to see how then the sales go and how many brands are going to go bankrupt.
 

Online SiliconWizard

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #314 on: April 30, 2022, 02:43:09 am »
Nice...

 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #315 on: April 30, 2022, 06:51:34 pm »
Chevy is having issues....  Look up the Volt's "Shift to Park" issue.   A bleeping $1.50 rendered switch rendered my car useless and I have to have to towed to the dealership spending $1,500 and waiting 2 months to get the car back.  It appears the switches are getting damaged by a voltage spike from the shifting gear solenoid.  There should be a recall to install a zener diode.  But NO, they are sticking it to the customer.  Some dealers are selling that $1.50 switch for $425.00.

As far as the Volts, they could be Spinlaunched into space.

 
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Offline Rick Law

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #316 on: May 01, 2022, 09:50:09 pm »
Chevy is having issues....  Look up the Volt's "Shift to Park" issue.   A bleeping $1.50 rendered switch rendered my car useless and I have to have to towed to the dealership spending $1,500 and waiting 2 months to get the car back.  It appears the switches are getting damaged by a voltage spike from the shifting gear solenoid.  There should be a recall to install a zener diode.  But NO, they are sticking it to the customer.  Some dealers are selling that $1.50 switch for $425.00.

As far as the Volts, they could be Spinlaunched into space.

There is a class-action law suit going on about this "shift to park issue" in Illinois.  It may expand to cover the whole USA if enough people from other states want to jump in.

EVs are viable products and is not in the same class of ideas such as city/nation wide pipe-delivery (pipe-dreams) or spinlaunch.  SpinLaunch and Pipe-Dream are products by it's very own design while technically feasible but impractical and with little to no possibility of ever becoming viable.  SpinLaunch could engineer all the launching problems away at great cost, but the Laws of Physics dictates that your payload must be able to withstand (approx) 11,000g centrifugal force at the current 100meter diameter spinner and mach3 launch.  The time and cost to harden the payload to withstand 11000g makes it non-viable.   EVs can be practical - just not long lasting enough.

Per SiliconWizard's earlier reply, a 5 year old car without a replacement battery says something about attitude of the manufacturers.  While it is outside the scope of the "shift to park" law suit, it is a problem caused by the same manufacturers' attitude:  "We are in a throw-away world and manufacturers are here to take your money.  You brought it and it's your problem now."

While all parts in the car are expected to died sooner or later, the battery pack being such a huge percentage of cost makes buying or selling used EV's a very big question.  10 year old cars are fairly common and typical for average American middle-class and first time purchasers.  Perhaps in time, EV's can have cross-manufacturer standardized smaller sub-packs, like 100x 18650's in a sub-pack to make up the whole battery pack for the car.  People can swap out the worst few sub-packs and regain some usage of the car.  That would make it a lot more viable.

 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #317 on: May 02, 2022, 02:50:04 am »
Chevy is having issues....  Look up the Volt's "Shift to Park" issue.   A bleeping $1.50 rendered switch rendered my car useless and I have to have to towed to the dealership spending $1,500 and waiting 2 months to get the car back.  It appears the switches are getting damaged by a voltage spike from the shifting gear solenoid.  There should be a recall to install a zener diode.  But NO, they are sticking it to the customer.  Some dealers are selling that $1.50 switch for $425.00.

As far as the Volts, they could be Spinlaunched into space.

There is a class-action law suit going on about this "shift to park issue" in Illinois.  It may expand to cover the whole USA if enough people from other states want to jump in.

There's already a nation wide class action lawsuit against GM for this issue. The law firm handling the case is Morgan and Morgan. 
It's quite a law firm, and claim they have one over $31 Billion for their clients.  The guy sure knows how to market himself.

 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #318 on: August 08, 2022, 04:10:26 am »
Real Engineering has done a full on doco about Spin Launch.

Their pinned comment is:
Quote
This has been in the works for about 3 months now. Our first full documentary shoot. There is a lot of negativity in the comments from people who have not even watched the video yet. This channel is about being positive about engineering. Encouraging and inspiring the next generation of engineers. If you are looking for a channel that focuses on being negative and adds nothing to world, you have come to the wrong place. It's so much easier to point out what's hard, than using your brain to think of solutions. That's not what engineers do. We find problems, and then we find solutions. If you don't think a company that's trying to throw satellites into space, and has already built a 1/3rd prototype, isn't insanely cool. I don't know what to do for ye. That's badass. Whether they succeed or not is irrelevant. It's not your investment money they are using, chill out.

I tried to post a comment under this pinned comment but Youtueb wouldn't allow me  :-// "We weren't able to add your reply. Please try again."

« Last Edit: August 08, 2022, 04:46:33 am by EEVblog »
 
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Offline madires

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #319 on: August 08, 2022, 10:05:33 am »
In this case 'Real Engineering' should be renamed to 'Real Marketing' to reflect the intended purpose of their YT channel.
 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #320 on: August 08, 2022, 10:50:10 am »
I don't think my comment is showing up. Does he have comment approvals turned on?
I listed by newest comments first and my comment was 6 hours ago, and it didn't show up in all the comment from the last 10 hours.  :-//
 
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Online wraper

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #321 on: August 08, 2022, 10:52:49 am »
Can be just youtube doing their usual - placing normal comments into spam.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #322 on: August 08, 2022, 01:36:38 pm »
If a Youtuber wants to put some proper resources into a debunking, I'd like to see a to first approximation calculation of the forces on the central spindle bearing at the moment of release at orbital velocities from a mechanical engineer and the yield strength the material would need to not deform.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2022, 01:47:44 pm by Marco »
 

Offline rob77

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #323 on: August 08, 2022, 02:26:54 pm »
If a Youtuber wants to put some proper resources into a debunking, I'd like to see a to first approximation calculation of the forces on the central spindle bearing at the moment of release at orbital velocities from a mechanical engineer and the yield strength the material would need to not deform.

the question here is completely different, the basic physics and maths checks out for spinlaunch, so there is nothing to debunk there. the practicality is the questionable part.
they're in front of a giant mountain of a task to make stuff work... the question is whether or not it makes any sense.

in the documentary they calculate the cost per launch using the cost of electricity for industries... but on the other hand they mention they will have to bring their own power to the remote launch site... but they don't mention it means the cost of electricity will be a order of magnitude higher.

from my perspective i would say it's technically possible but the practicality is extremely questionable... it's not in the "hyperloop class" but pretty darn close :)
 

Offline Marco

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #324 on: August 08, 2022, 02:36:02 pm »
the basic physics and maths checks out for spinlaunch

Maybe, but I'd like to see some independent confirmation, which is a bit of actual work I'm not able to perform.

That counterweight in imbalance at orbital velocity puts a lot of leveraged force on the spindle, it's clearly the heaviest stressed part of the machine and intuitively I don't trust it to not deform (and/or self destruct).

PS. how about putting it in the desert and combining it with a huge solar plant, at a couple times over necessary capacity a few clouds won't interrupt launch. When you're not launching, sell the power.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2022, 02:42:44 pm by Marco »
 


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