eevBLAB #63: How Affordable Are Electric Cars?

[Brumby]

Yes, I know, I'm being lazy. It's common in the industry to drop the h, most of the ads do, and common in EV forums too when talking about a known type.

This from the guy who did EEVblog #1009 - Voltage vs Power vs Energy

[sokoloff]

I don’t think Dave is arguing that what he typed was correct/valid.

[EEVblog]

Yes, I know, I'm being lazy. It's common in the industry to drop the h, most of the ads do, and common in EV forums too when talking about a known type.

This from the guy who did EEVblog #1009 - Voltage vs Power vs Energy

I should clarify, it's common in the EV industry it seems, it's (incorrectly) kW on most of the ads and EV forum posts that I've been reading, I have kW instead of kWh on the brain as a result. Owners know it's kWh, but they just say "I've got a 24kW", just like we say 10k when we mean 10kΩ. So even just shorten in to "24k" in fact, and you need the sentence context to know they mean kWh and not km.

[Brumby]

Hmmm...  I'm inclined to pay that - but, to make a distinction, when we talk about a resistor of 10k - we all know the missing ohms part belongs.

I don't think the same can be said for the EV industry.

[tom66]

Dendrites short the cells.

Not immediately and that is where the problem lies and why looking at the ESR and capacity isn't enough to judge how long the battery pack will last.

I disagree because dendrite formation is a sign of a pack that has been severely mistreated. Either by poor design or by being left in a low discharge state for much of its life.

The gradual capacity loss of a Li-Ion battery is not related to dendrites. And I doubt, short of SEM-analysis of the cells, you will be able to detect them before they start shorting the cell.  Perhaps you might get early high self-discharge if you had fine dendrite build up, but I suspect this would be short lived; the heat produced by the cell would likely lead to thermal runaway.  Probably one of the reasons EV manufacturers are very careful about how the cells are treated.

[tom66]

I should clarify, it's common in the EV industry it seems, it's (incorrectly) kW on most of the ads and EV forum posts that I've been reading, I have kW instead of kWh on the brain as a result. Owners know it's kWh, but they just say "I've got a 24kW", just like we say 10k when we mean 10kΩ. So even just shorten in to "24k" in fact, and you need the sentence context to know they mean kWh and not km.

I don't think it's common at all. I don't see any mainstream ads or brochure material from EV manufacturers that mix the two.
Perhaps used car places do, and obviously owners/enthusiasts/etc do, but it's certainly not "right", and "kWh" is hardly much more to type.
24k would be fine (though I'd argue for a capital K to distinguish it from resistance), I think the problem is when people genuinely don't know the difference between kW and kWh.

[sokoloff]

If anything, I'd think you'd need to distinguish from kilometers, not kilo-ohms for an EV car battery commentary I'd think.

How would capital K distinguish it from resistance anyway (which is using the same system of multiplier adjectives as kilowatts, kilowatt-hours, and kilometers)?

[nctnico]

Dendrites short the cells.

Not immediately and that is where the problem lies and why looking at the ESR and capacity isn't enough to judge how long the battery pack will last.

I disagree because dendrite formation is a sign of a pack that has been severely mistreated. Either by poor design or by being left in a low discharge state for much of its life.

The gradual capacity loss of a Li-Ion battery is not related to dendrites.

You are contradicting yourself here. What I'm trying to point out: when buying a second hand EV you don't know how good/bad the battery has been treated and you can't determine this just from the capacity of the pack because there are other factors at play (dendrites is one example of these factors). The pack may have been fast charged a lot, left in very hot or very cold places, left deeply discharged, etc. You don't know and it is difficult (if not impossible to measure) but it will affect the life expectancy.

[sokoloff]

What I'm trying to point out: when buying a second hand EV you don't know how good/bad the battery has been treated and you can't determine this just from the capacity of the pack because there are other factors at play (dendrites is one example of these factors). The pack may have been fast charged a lot, left in very hot or very cold places, left deeply discharged, etc. You don't know and it is difficult (if not impossible to measure) but it will affect the life expectancy.

In most cases, you can read some of that information from the BMS. On my LEAF, as of this morning, my car has 17,793 miles, and has been quick charged once (prior to delivery) and L1/L2 charged 873 times. (The charge count indicates connect/disconnect cycles, not necessarily the depth of charge each time.)

Further, there is a state of health calculation that is run periodically (exact procedure varies by car, but it tends to be "discharge below a certain level, let it rest a few hours to stabilize, then charge it up fully and let it rest a bit to stabilize" at which point the BMS will then update its statistics on the individual cell health). Is it perfect? Of course not. Is it a ton more information than you get from looking at the number of bars of battery capacity on the instrument panel? Absolutely.

I would go so far as to suggest that you can easily get more information about the battery health than you do about the health of an internal combustion engine when shopping for a used car.

[nctnico]

What I'm trying to point out: when buying a second hand EV you don't know how good/bad the battery has been treated and you can't determine this just from the capacity of the pack because there are other factors at play (dendrites is one example of these factors). The pack may have been fast charged a lot, left in very hot or very cold places, left deeply discharged, etc. You don't know and it is difficult (if not impossible to measure) but it will affect the life expectancy.

In most cases, you can read some of that information from the BMS. On my LEAF, as of this morning, my car has 17,793 miles, and has been quick charged once (prior to delivery) and L1/L2 charged 873 times. (The charge count indicates connect/disconnect cycles, not necessarily the depth of charge each time.)

That may seem like a lot of information but it still doesn't say everything you want to know about how the battery has been treated. To make some kind of assessment you want to know the minimum SOC, minimum charge temperature, minimum discharge temperature, maximum SOC, maximum charge temperature, time between charges, etc, etc. The BMS likely has a log of this (or it should have) but can you get to this information as a consumer? And even then it is guess work.

I would go so far as to suggest that you can easily get more information about the battery health than you do about the health of an internal combustion engine when shopping for a used car.

Not really. For an ICE there are several tell-tale signs of engine wear. But even then... worst case a used engine (with half the mileage) for my car is 5 times cheaper compared to a refurbished battery pack for a Nissan Leaf. Which takes the discussion back to affordability / costs. Both with a used EV or ICE car you can get unlucky. The big question is how this translates to monetary loss for the owner.

[maginnovision]

You can do 3 quick tests for an engine that currently runs ok and be reasonably sure it's ok. Cooling system important for ICE and EV alike. Perform a pressure check for 20 Minutes or so to really check. That includes checking the cap. Sometimes small drips can leak out and not show on gauge for some time this is combine with visual checks. Then you can also perform a compression test. This will give you a decent amount of information on the state of the cylinders(and mating components) and the valvetrain. I would give this an hour for most cars. A lot of them will take less time, some V8's will start testing you on the hour since they can be quite compact. After that you can be reasonably sure the engine is ok.

You could also check oil pressure though. This can be terribly variable for time and difficulty but it'll give you a decent idea about the rest of the engines condition.  Unless it's a race engine this is all you really need to check to know everything that matters. There are ancillary tests like fuel pressure, verifying thermostat works normally but those aren't really the engine and don't take much time at all. Like I said earlier, most issues are easy to fix, everything external to the engine is pretty easy even for DIY(assuming it's not turbo charged).

[tom66]

You are contradicting yourself here. What I'm trying to point out: when buying a second hand EV you don't know how good/bad the battery has been treated and you can't determine this just from the capacity of the pack because there are other factors at play (dendrites is one example of these factors). The pack may have been fast charged a lot, left in very hot or very cold places, left deeply discharged, etc. You don't know and it is difficult (if not impossible to measure) but it will affect the life expectancy.

Severely mistreated as in left at a below 0-mile SOC for some time.  Almost no EV pack will be recoverable from this state without some considerable "hacking" of the BMS to even allow charging.

(Tesla Roadster batteries are known to "brick" from owners not using their car all summer, and leaving the car with a dead pack.  Newer cars shut off residual loads so this should be...virtually impossible.  But in any case, even the Roadster batteries need to be repaired before they work again, the BMS will not engage the contactors to allow charging if the pack is under-voltage.)

I am very certain that such abuse will show itself in other ways, such as poor overall battery SOH.

Outside of low SOC environments, dendrite formation in the battery pack is not possible, unless the EV manufacturer is completely incompetent (i.e. allowing supercharging with a freezing pack.) Which, although not impossible, would be likely something you observe with a smaller hobby/kit EV manufacturer, not a large one.  As battery fires, which would be a likely result of spontaneous cell shorts, are not exactly something you want to be happening frequently, as a manufacturer.

Though, you may be interested that my GTE does in fact store much of the data you want: Total hours operation of the battery pack, historical maximum cell temperature, minimum cell temperature, as well as historical minimum/maximum cell voltages and SOCs.

[thm_w]

Still trying to find a used LEAF. It seems to be either sub $20k for a 2014 with 24kW pack, or $33k+ for a 2016 with 30kW pack.

30 kWh battery is complete crap which degrades very fast. Much worse even than not that good 24 kWh battery. There is very high chance there will be less capacity left than if you buy older car with 24 kWh battery.

https://pushevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Nissan-Leaf-battery-SOH-data.png.webp

This was "debunked" by Nissan themselves. They changed the 2016+ firmware and the SOH no longer degrades this quickly. Whether or not you trust them, not sure, I don't believe its been proven either way yet.
Anyway 2014 has been proven to be a excellent battery in mild climates, hotter regions not so much.

To pay 65% more for 25% extra range is not a great value proposition.

[SilverSolder]

To pay 65% more for 25% extra range is not a great value proposition.

Depends -  if the smaller battery is just that little bit too small to get you to the office, even an extra tiny bit would be valuable!

[Brumby]

To pay 65% more for 25% extra range is not a great value proposition.

Depends -  if the smaller battery is just that little bit too small to get you to the office, even an extra tiny bit would be valuable!

Absolutely.  If a product does not achieve a minimum threshhold, then it has to be eliminated from consideration.

That extra 25% could be the difference between exclusion and inclusion, in which case the 65% figure will, essentially, be irrelevant.

[EEVblog]

Perhaps used car places do, and obviously owners/enthusiasts/etc do, but it's certainly not "right", and "kWh" is hardly much more to type.
24k would be fine (though I'd argue for a capital K to distinguish it from resistance), I think the problem is when people genuinely don't know the difference between kW and kWh.

I'm not saying it's right, just pointing out that it's common and that's where my brain was after reading countless ads and EV forum posts.

[edy]

Hey Dave, Great eevBLAB by the way!!! You hit the nail right on the head!

To add my 2 cents here it goes...

1) I drive a Honda CR-V, it's now going on 8 years (2011 model) and around 65,000 km.
2) I've started biking to work, which is about 5 km away, takes me 20 minutes.

I've looked at electric cars and really the use-case scenario depends on a complex formula involving your yearly driving mileage, types of activities and haulage you do, the cost differential of electric vs. gas vs. hybrid in your area, and the price of gas, weather, price of the car (affordability) and many other factors. To believe that ELECTRIC is going to overtake GAS for everybody is INSANE!!!!   

Just like every other technology, I see electric as a nice option that will reach an equilibrium and perhaps suit the needs of a certain percentage of the population, but ultimately increasing adoption will be the result of changes in the various factors I mentioned above and re-evaluation by consumers at each step of their life to see if it makes sense or not. But I don't see an electric vehicle suiting my needs any time soon.

My car:


For one, my ridiculously low mileage annually and the fact that I am also trying to put in a decent number of bike days in my daily commute to work would *seemingly* make me want to buy a low-range electric? As paradoxical as that sounds, it is actually better for me to own the Honda. The stats show about 10 km/L fuel economy, which is basically a drive to work and back. The tank holds 40 L, so theoretically it should last me 40 days, but in actuality I need to fill up about every 2-3 weeks because of other trips. Let's say 2 weeks. Cost of gas these days is $1.15/L, so let's say $50 a tank, biweekly, or $1300 a year in fuel ($50 x 26). To cross-reference the math, let's say I use 40L biweekly, that's 1040 L per year. So at 10km/L I would be able to travel about 10,400 km annually. This is within reason as my car has under 70,000 km and it's a 2011 model I've had for 8 years so yes I actually do less than 10,000 km per year on it. And that's not even with biking, which I only started recently... Imagine how many fewer days I would use the car when I bike!!!!

The NISSAN LEAF in Canada starts at $42,298. My Honda CR-V with leather and alloy wheels (almost top model just 1 step below, missing built-in GPS Nav) cost me about $35,000. The base model starts at $27,690, and they have a hell of a good retention value because they last and have low maintenance.

Leaf:


Not that you can compare APPLES and ORANGES here. I wouldn't be able to throw nearly as much into the back of a Nissan Leaf as I can into my Honda CR-V where the entire back seats drop and the hatch-back can swallow up bikes, lumber, patio stones, etc... no problem. But even the price alone differential between the Leaf and base CR-V is $42,298 - $27,690 = $14,608 Loonies!!!! (That's Canadian bucks for you). 

So based on the cost of gasoline for me, even at say $1400/year, I would have to drive over 10 years at the current rate JUST TO gain a return on investment on fuel savings, and that's not even including the cost of electricity for 10 years which I'd need to spend on the Nissan Leaf. So I have this...

Honda CR-V + 10 years worth of gas = Nissan Leaf + free electricity for 10 years   

What would the cost be to charge a Nissan Leaf, to go 10,000 km a year? How many KwH and at what Canadian charging rate (let's say the cost of hydro at night during low-peak hours) would it cost me in electricity per hour? What are the maintenance costs going to be on a Leaf? Higher? Lower?

You see, IT MAKES NO FREAKING SENSE for me to buy even one of the CHEAPEST electric cars on the planet. I can take the CR-V on long road trips no problem, handle snow and get serviced almost anywhere no problem. It is a no-brainer. And I didn't even mention the FREEZING Canadian winters here where you will see that Leaf battery range dwindle severely, and try handling some snow in that little thing.

Even if I were to ever get a new car, I'd probably get a Hybrid with minimal range-electric to jump back and forth to work, but have the capacity to fuel long-distance drives. But even so, any plug-in hybrids are fairly pricey. One honda.ca you can find the Clarity plug-in Hybrid MSRP $40,100 but it says government incentives up to $13,000, so potentially you could get if for about $27,100 (although I highly doubt that, if anything maybe $5,000... either way it would probably be in the mid-$30k's). Anyways, this car has a 76km range which would suit my needs a full week before I have to plug it in. I could theoretically never use the gas in it. And total driving range is about 500km on a tank.

Incidentally, a Telsa Model 3 which is the cheapest Tesla base price Canada is $54,990.    That is almost 2 Honda CR-V's. Definitely off my radar.

I'm not sure whether its "eco-friendly" delusion/euphoria or "keep up with the Jones's" (not Dave, but you know the saying) happening but if one jumps in on an electric vehicle purchase without doing these calculations it could be a costly mistake. It's always good to think about electric/hybrid and be nice to our planet but you may be able to find other ways to do it, and get your "carbon credits" somewhere else in your lifestyle behaviour patterns. It really depends on your motivation and goals behind the purchase, and why you are choosing electric or not.

[thm_w]

For one, my ridiculously low mileage annually and the fact that I am also trying to put in a decent number of bike days in my daily commute to work would *seemingly* make me want to buy a low-range electric? As paradoxical as that sounds, it is actually better for me to own the Honda. The stats show about 10 km/L fuel economy, which is basically a drive to work and back.

No thats the opposite of someone who should financially justify a low-range electric. Someone who drives a lot, yearly speaking, but not in terms of single long distance trips, is the person it makes most sense for. eg a 60km round trip commute 5 times per week, plus some km on the weekends, etc.

Biking/walking to work daily and having a reasonably fuel efficient vehicle for longer trips is about as good as you can get $ wise. Arguably you'd be better off with a car share or renting when needed for long trips, but that won't be as convenient as some here are accustomed to.

Good to hear you are biking though.

[tom66]

@edy
This is why more low-cost EVs need to come onto the market.

The average new car purchase is US$35,000 - around the same price as your base CR-V.

If the Model 3 was available for around that (it's gone up from that price because Tesla has discontinued the base model) in Canada then it could be a very compelling car for some.
The Bolt is also worth looking at, not sure they sell it in Canada, but some people have got them for under $25k, as GM is desperate to shift them. 

Once EVs are under the $25k mark for a ~200 mile range car, I think there's going to be little argument from customers. 
It will be necessary to start applying luxury taxes on ICE cars to account for the pollution they cause, and eventually outright prohibiting new sales except for very specific industry requirements.

[nctnico]

Once EVs are under the $25k mark for a ~200 mile range car, I think there's going to be little argument from customers. 

Don't think so. Other electric vehicles like electric mopeds and bicycles are good alternatives for many as well. Most of the food delivery services I see in the NL use electric bikes. A car with a 200 mile range is a crutch. If it can't replace a normal ICE car then it is only good as a short range (second car) roundabout which won't see much kilometers. In turn this makes the TCO per km very high. Another problem with short range EVs is that they don't do the kilometers to have any significant effect to reduce CO2 emissions. To me it seems an EV is a solution looking for a problem. It just makes more sense to buy an efficient (hybrid) ICE car which can do both long and short trips efficient.

Also take a look at this German well-to-wheel study (comparing VW Golf sizes cars):
https://www.adac.de/verkehr/tanken-kraftstoff-antrieb/alternative-antriebe/co2-treibhausgasbilanz-studie/

In Germany an EV does next to nothing to reduce CO2 emissions:

A car running on CNG (compressed natural gas) offers the most reduction in CO2 emissions. For completeness they also included graphs in case the EV is powered from 0 emission electricity. But even in that case the break even point is at 30k km.

[sokoloff]

Once EVs are under the $25k mark for a ~200 mile range car, I think there's going to be little argument from customers. 

Don't think so. Other electric vehicles like electric mopeds and bicycles are good alternatives for many as well. Most of the food delivery services I see in the NL use electric bikes. A car with a 200 mile range is a crutch. If it can't replace a normal ICE car then it is only good as a short range (second car) roundabout which won't see much kilometers. In turn this makes the TCO per km very high. Another problem with short range EVs is that they don't do the kilometers to have any significant effect to reduco CO2 emissions. To me it seems an EV is a solution looking for a problem.

For the most part, people have a use case for the car and buy a car to fit, rather than buying a car and adjusting their use case to it. Plenty of people have a lifestyle that rarely drives beyond the range of an electric. My wife's car is gas and she averages about 5K miles per year. My car is electric and I average about 4K miles per year. I bought an electric because I was already only driving about 4K miles per year. If I sold it and bought a gas car, I would probably continue to drive about 4K miles per year. My parents have two electric smarts and a Mercedes diesel. They struggle to drive two full tanks of diesel per year in the Merc, doing 95% of their driving in the electrics.

If I drove more, it's true that my TCO per mile/km would go down. That doesn't make it sensible for me to drive more.

We get it. You think electric cars are dumb. Therefore, you probably shouldn't buy one as I'm sure you'd be quite unhappy with it.

[nctnico]

Once EVs are under the $25k mark for a ~200 mile range car, I think there's going to be little argument from customers. 

Don't think so. Other electric vehicles like electric mopeds and bicycles are good alternatives for many as well. Most of the food delivery services I see in the NL use electric bikes. A car with a 200 mile range is a crutch. If it can't replace a normal ICE car then it is only good as a short range (second car) roundabout which won't see much kilometers. In turn this makes the TCO per km very high. Another problem with short range EVs is that they don't do the kilometers to have any significant effect to reduco CO2 emissions. To me it seems an EV is a solution looking for a problem.

For the most part, people have a use case for the car and buy a car to fit, rather than buying a car and adjusting their use case to it. Plenty of people have a lifestyle that rarely drives beyond the range of an electric. My wife's car is gas and she averages about 5K miles per year. My car is electric and I average about 4K miles per year.

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

[sokoloff]

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

It depends on what the alternate reference car would be.

I replaced a rusted-out diesel Mercedes. (Great car; terrible water-based "environmentally friendly" primer and paint system that lead to premature rusting of the car in New England winter conditions. Drivetrain going strong at 210K miles; body unsafe structurally.)

What am I going to replace it with?

I could replace it with a LEAF (what I ultimately did) at about $22K ($32K-$10K in government handouts), financed at 0% for 60 months.
I could replace it with a comparable sized new car (something I'd never have considered) at a higher cost than that.
I could replace it with another used car (the actual alternative).

The LEAF is cheaper to buy, own, and operate than another new car.
It's more expensive to buy, own, and operate than a 5 year older used car.
None of that should be shocking.

We have an ICE car for medium range trips.
We have an airplane for longer trips.

I bought an electric because I wanted one, was curious about it, and could easily afford it. It's been more enjoyable and lower hassle than I expected.

[boffin]

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

You just showed that after driving a mere 30,000km an EV is better on the environment. 
At 5000mi (8000km)/yr, in just over 6 years, it's better for the environment.

So the answer to your own question, using your own data, is YES, it's better for the environment after just 4 yrs.

Thanks for finally admitting you agree with us.

[nctnico]

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

You just showed that after driving a mere 30,000km an EV is better on the environment. 
At 5000mi (8000km)/yr, in just over 6 years, it's better for the environment.

You really don't read at all do you? As a reference the graph shows a case where the electricity comes from a 100% renewable energy source but in Germany (and in most parts of the world) such a source doesn't exist.    The green line marked by E Auto (1) is the case for Germany.

What the graph does show is that EVs do much less or even very little for the environment which is opposite to what the environmentalists like us to believe.

Add to that that most car manufacturers seem to concentrate on short range EVs it is obvious that EVs are not going to result in any significant CO2 emission reduction. The biggest problem is the battery pack which causes a lot of CO2 emissions to produce and basically doubles the CO2 output for the production of a car.