eevBLAB #63: How Affordable Are Electric Cars?

[TheAmmoniacal]

Driveaway price for the base Model 3 in Norway: 377 020 NOK (= $61 700 AUD)
Driveaway price for the base Model 3 in Australia: $70 376 AUD

"Full-time earnings in Australia averaged $82 436 AUD" (https://www.livingin-australia.com/salaries-australia/)

Average annual wages in Norway is 547 200 NOK/year (= $89 550 AUD) (https://www.ssb.no/arbeid-og-lonn/artikler-og-publikasjoner/lonnsveksten-tar-seg-opp)

In Norway the base Model 3 is 70% of the average annual wages/salary.
In Australia it's 85%.

EDIT: Income inequality in Australia is higher (Gini coefficient of 34.7 vs 26.8 for Norway), so on average there are less Australians that could/can afford one.

[tom66]

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

This just isn't true.  The Model S is heavy, but that's because it's basically a 5-series sized car (and all that steel and aluminium adds up).  My VW Golf GTE PHEV weighs within 50kg of a Nissan Leaf pure-EV; the difference is the PHEV is carrying an 8kWh battery, electric motor, 6 speed gearbox and 1.4L engine, whereas the Leaf is carrying only the motor and 30kWh battery pack. 

The Model S battery pack is about 600kg; it's not lightweight but then again neither is a gearbox, petrol engine, tank, fuel, exhaust, emissions system, etc.

IMHO a Tesla is a particulary bad choice when it comes to maintenance costs (and reliability as well) if you want to drive it until it just stops running. Even the model 3 is basically a high performance car and 18" or 20" tyres are way more expensive  (I'm seeing prices varying from 400 to 1200 euro for replacing 2 tyres on a Model S) to replace compared to 14" or 15" tyres on a standard steel rim. Ditto for the brakes and other parts which are subject to wear. Because Tesla is quite rare compared to other cars be prepared to have to rely on / pay Tesla for the parts instead of cheaper third party after market / OEM parts. If you still plan to buy an EV then look for the established brands like VW, Nissan, Toyota, etc. Chances are parts are exchangeable with ICE based cars so maintenance is likely way cheaper because there are more parts available.

Not sure about the Model S but the Model 3 (base spec, not performance) runs standard 225/40R18 tyres, the same as my GTE, which cost around £350-450 (~same in Euros) for a full set of Michelin Pilot Sport tyres, and much less if you're prepared to put dodgy Chinese rubber on them.   That's about normal for a standard car (heck, my old 1.8 litre Ford Focus used the same tyres).  But, if you are really concerned about the cost of the Model 3's tyres, you could purchase smaller rims and fit smaller tyres to it.  With the torque of the motor, you might find the traction control light flashing a lot more.

[nctnico]

You are writing the same.  I already wrote that a Tesla is a high performance car which is expensive to maintain. Dave's video is about affordable EVs and there are way more sensible choices than Tesla.

[sokoloff]

The cheapest way to own an electric car is probably related to the cheapest way to own an ICE car:  Keep it boring...  buy a popular, proven, and reliable mass market model from a major manufacturer; stay away from the first few years of a new model.

Electric cars have not been around long enough (and have not been popular enough) for this to be possible yet.

And buy a 3-6 year old used car for significant lifecycle savings as well.

Many EVs are available in that age range, though as a happy 2015 LEAF owner, if you want the cheapest motoring, you probably want a 10 year old Honda or Toyota ICE car.

[coppice]

Here in Norway the cheapest Tesla S (comparable to the video) is 61 696 AU$, with the cheapest leaf at 47 114 AU$.

I wonder how much each poor Norwegian tax payer has to subsidise a wealthier person's Tesla? If you buy a Tesla at those highly subsidised prices, can you immediately resell it across the borders in an EU country?

Over the last year the manufacturers have released a lot of professional use cars and vans as well, which will be great for city users that rarely drive very far every day.

There are quite a lot of electric delivery vans, which don't get a lot of attention. They make enormous sense. Throughout the 20th century various specialised delivery activities were served by electric vehicles, loaded with massive arrays of lead acid batteries. Now you find lots of Ford and other vans, which look like any ordinary diesel van of the same make, are electric powered, and doing things like parcel delivery. When the average journey is maybe 200 metres they are a big win.

[nctnico]

It wouldn't surprise me if the electric vans are only economically viable due to subsidies. Companies can get even bigger tax cuts on green investments. So when the tax breaks end the electric vans will likely dissapear again.

[tom66]

It wouldn't surprise me if the electric vans are only economically viable due to subsidies. Companies can get even bigger tax cuts on green investments. So when the tax breaks end the electric vans will likely dissapear again.

You say things like this but with no evidence at all to back up your PoV.

Electric vans make a huge deal of sense in busy city centres, a local delivery firm (DPD) has started using them for many of its local deliveries.  The hub and spoke model of delivery centres is actually ideal for this because most of the vans are doing less than 100 miles in a day. So they can fit easily one shift within a full charge.

In the UK, a small electric van costs 3-4p/mile in electric plus requires less maintenance, whereas a diesel van getting 25 mpg will cost almost 17p/mile in electric.  Over 100,000 miles of driving that's £14,000.  That's half the price of the vehicle, and puts a vehicle like a Nissan eNV200 at comparable price to its non-electric brother.

Now add up lower taxes, maintenance costs, brake pads etc (and time out of service due to all of these) and in areas like London an exemption from the congestion charge / toxicity charge and the economics start to become quite clear. 

I wonder, do you ever visit a city like London?  The air there is absolutely toxic, you can taste the pollution. It is a bit like humid air, but then you realise it's 10'C outside and 45% RH so it's not humidity. It makes my nasal congestion go into overdrive.  I am 100% in favour of banning any ICE vehicle from a city centre within 10 years, even if you don't accept the science of climate change and the lower CO2 emissions of an e-car, you must see with your own eyes the harm that the pollution from a hundred thousand cars driving in and out of a city centre every day does to the poor f**kers living there. (Myself, that's one reason I absolutely refuse to live in a city centre.)

I wonder how much each poor Norwegian tax payer has to subsidise a wealthier person's Tesla? If you buy a Tesla at those highly subsidised prices, can you immediately resell it across the borders in an EU country?

AFAIK it's a case of EVs being less expensive than petrol vehicles because new petrol vehicles are (rightly) taxed more. Also the Norwegian equivalent of benefit in kind for EVs is really low, so attractive for business users.

One benefit this subsidy seems to have is that older EVs/PHEVs are depreciating quite rapidly. For instance in the UK, you can buy a Nissan Leaf for under £8,000 if you look around a bit, and decent spec/mileage ones are less than £10,000. The Golf GTE PHEV that I drive is half the price it was new 3 years ago. 

The idea that EVs are proving unpopular once subsidies go away is a bit crap to be honest. There's been no slowdown in Model 3 sales despite the tax credit being only $3,700 now (half what it was a year ago).

[elmo]

I wonder how much each poor Norwegian tax payer has to subsidise a wealthier person's Tesla? If you buy a Tesla at those highly subsidised prices, can you immediately resell it across the borders in an EU country?

The tax loss due to the EV subsidizing in Norway in 2017 was 5,7 billion NOK. About 1083 NOK pr. capita. About double that for each tax payer.
I won't bother calculating what each sold Tesla is costing me, but it is no secret that Tesla is getting a good lump of it, being a fairly popular brand over the last years and being the most expensive, heavy and the most powerful (weight and power are car tax factors in Norway, and also VAT. Non of them payable for an EV).

The numbers aren't that bad all things considered. The government has wasted significantly more money on stupid ideas that went nowhere.

[nctnico]

It wouldn't surprise me if the electric vans are only economically viable due to subsidies. Companies can get even bigger tax cuts on green investments. So when the tax breaks end the electric vans will likely dissapear again.

You say things like this but with no evidence at all to back up your PoV.

Electric vans make a huge deal of sense in busy city centres, a local delivery firm (DPD) has started using them for many of its local deliveries.  The hub and spoke model of delivery centres is actually ideal for this because most of the vans are doing less than 100 miles in a day. So they can fit easily one shift within a full charge.

In the UK, a small electric van costs 3-4p/mile in electric plus requires less maintenance, whereas a diesel van getting 25 mpg will cost almost 17p/mile in electric.  Over 100,000 miles of driving that's £14,000.  That's half the price of the vehicle, and puts a vehicle like a Nissan eNV200 at comparable price to its non-electric brother.

Now add up lower taxes, maintenance costs, brake pads etc (and time out of service due to all of these) and in areas like London an exemption from the congestion charge / toxicity charge and the economics start to become quite clear. 

I wonder, do you ever visit a city like London?  The air there is absolutely toxic, you can taste the pollution.

I do visit cities like London. For sure reducing polution is an added benefit for the people living in London but do companies really care about that? You have to factor the higher upfront costs of electric vans as well because these need to be financed one way or another. The congestion charge and subsidies do create an artificial market. Another option would be to push for cleaner vehicles in general by only allowing euro 5 vehicles into the city center (like some German cities have done). The latter likely has a much bigger effect on improving air quality. As far as I can determine the current limit is euro 3 which is very bad. IIRC my old 1999 diesel was euro3.

The idea that EVs are proving unpopular once subsidies go away is a bit crap to be honest. There's been no slowdown in Model 3 sales despite the tax credit being only $3,700 now (half what it was a year ago).

The Netherlands shows different sales figures. Tax breaks on the Tesla Model S stopped and sales dropped to zero. In the years 2016 to 2018 an average of 3100 Tesla Model S where sold anually in the Netherlands. In 2019 120 have been sold so far. That is a drop of over 90%. Other higher end EVs like the Jaguar I-pace show the same trend.

[boffin]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?
here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Doesn't matter when the EV costs 10's of thousands more than an ICE car.

I think what you meant to say is "It doesn't matter to me where I live". 

Here in Western Canada, (even if you remove subsidies), an EV can easily pay for the price premium over the life of the car.

[james_s]

Of course I expect the Nissan Leaf is by far the most numerous EV on our roads, shame it is so damn ugly.

Frankly I have a hell of a time thinking of any modern car that I wouldn't describe as "so damn ugly", in fact I struggle to think of a car made in the last 10-15 years that I would even want if it was offered to me for free. I'd take a free EV regardless of what it looks like for purely utilitarian reasons but automotive design has completely missed the mark in so many ways for me, all you see now are these hideous crossovers. Fake SUVs that all look like the same car with a different enormous badge on them, I think they make the badges so big now because there is almost nothing else to identify the brand which is fine really because brand is virtually irrelevant now. I loathe touchscreens in place of tactile switches and knobs that can be operated without looking, gigantic wheels with rubber band tires that would be fine on a racetrack but give a harsh ride on actual roads and if you hit a pot hole that my current car would take in stride, you'll blow out the tire and bend a $1k rim in even most family sedans these days. The crossover seems to have completely replaced wagons, they are tall and ugly while having less interior space largely due to the swoopy roofs that are all the rage. Beltlines keep rising to the point that I look at cars now and think of the stereotypical old geezer with his pants pulled up to his armpits. Pillars a mile wide and microscopic back windows makes visibility dangerously poor so then we have bandaids over this ridiculous form over function design like backup cameras and other electronic aids that would be completely unnecessary if you could actually see out of the car. Then there are the "bumpers" they use now, what a joke, thin painted plastic parts that do f#$% all to protect the body panels in even a minor collision, the entire front and rear ends are sacrificial structures. I'm strongly of the opinion that any car should be able to survive a low speed bump with little to no damage at all, sacrificial crumple zones should only do their thing in a serious collision. Bumpers should be rugged, unpainted and shock mounted like they were up into the 90s. This is especially true if you're going to style something to look rugged as all those silly crossovers are, though they are not rugged at all.

[Connecteur]

Automobiles were once "too expensive" and before 1906, they were mostly owned by the wealthier members of society.
Ford made them affordable to the middle class, but even then, they weren't cheaper than a horse.  But other factors came into play. Horses left piles of dung lining the streets and needed to be fed constantly.
It's a parallel with today's electric cars.  They are "too expensive" relative to conventional cars, but other factors contribute.  The key to a sustainable future is to get the carbon cycle under control, and weaning ourselves off fossil fuels is the first step in that direction.

[timgiles]

Dave,

Well I have to say that using a Tesla as an example, if you live outside the States, especially in Europe - makes the figures look bad. But - in Sweden - my wife and I have a Kia Niro PHEV and use 90% electric (95% Electric only day to day, long trips down to Stockholm 600km - both). For us the figures we did before getting it 12 months ago have been right on the money. Doing the distance we do (around 4-600km / week), electricity costs charging at home is about 10% that of filling up with petrol to go the same distance - the money we save using electricity to drive almost pays for the car. If we had had the chance to get the fully electric Kia eNiro version - even though it was about 10% more expensive, it would still almost have paid for iself. In comparison, we had a A4 1.8T that was ok, not great when it came to fuel economy - before the Niro.

I am a complete convert on electric cars after doing the figures for my family and owning one. However - the price of a Tesla, which ever model, here if Sweden - I would never be able to justify the cost.

Hoping an eNiro is available in 2 years when we look to change our current car. Or a similar range, priced alternative. With increasing fuel prices that are far outpacing electricity costs - I am certain Sweden will soon be like Norway with majority of car sales being wither part or fully electric.

[Neilm]

I drive 25 k miles a year here in the UK. I ran the numbers including how much I spend on petrol and was surprised with the result.

For what I pay a month on my current car (Toyota hybrid I get about 60 mpg) including petrol I would save money on a Tesla model 3, even if I bought it on a 3 year contract. That includes the extra tax I would have to pay but doesn't include the fact that petrol in the UK has risen by about 5 % a year for the last 5 years. I usually by on a contract so I just look at the monthly payment

[james_s]

It's always been weird to me how often most people seem to replace cars. Back in 2000 I bought a $500 car and drove it daily for 17 years. I'd still be driving it today if I hadn't gotten rear ended by a tanker truck. If you take care of a car and fix problems as the occur it's not hard to keep it running well and looking good for a very long time. I hear people complaining that they don't want to spend more on repairs than a car is worth but that doesn't make sense because no matter what you do, you ultimately spend more on a car than it's worth because with few exceptions it is a depreciating asset. Drive a new car off the lot and you've just lost more than a very expensive repair job.

[tom66]

[...] For sure reducing polution is an added benefit for the people living in London but do companies really care about that? You have to factor the higher upfront costs of electric vans as well because these need to be financed one way or another. The congestion charge and subsidies do create an artificial market.

Of course they don't, but this is the thing about economics and negative externalities.  As a society we all pay the costs of air pollution in the form of greater healthcare costs, but the polluting companies don't.  That's what things like the T-Charge aim to do (£20/day for vehicles to drive into London city centre if they don't meet emissions requirements.)  They are deliberately distorting the market in favour of better options.

The free market is good but it has problems, and handling externalities is one of those.   I am strongly in favour of allowing capitalism to do its thing but pushing it in the right direction with taxes, subsidies and regulation.  In London, the Euro 5 restriction already applies.  I think it might be changing to Euro 6 soon but I've not followed up on the politics for a while.  But still it makes little difference. 100,000 cars travelling at low speed produce plenty of pollution even if they are more efficient or cleaner.

Also worth nothing that the EU will be charging European carmakers a heavy fine per kg(CO2e)/km over a set figure, determined partially by fleet size.  The fines begin in 2020 [1] and could amount to some 34 billion euros. So plenty of incentives there to lower CO2 emissions.  I welcome this, although I fear it is too little too late.

The Netherlands shows different sales figures. Tax breaks on the Tesla Model S stopped and sales dropped to zero. In the years 2016 to 2018 an average of 3100 Tesla Model S where sold anually in the Netherlands. In 2019 120 have been sold so far. That is a drop of over 90%. Other higher end EVs like the Jaguar I-pace show the same trend.

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

I do remember an article a while ago which suggested the typical Prius driver in San Fran found themselves in a Model S next year;  it wasn't that they could really justify the purchase but that they wanted to drive an electric car and the Model S was the first decent vehicle out there.  So wouldn't be surprised if many stretched their finances to the limit to afford what is almost a 100kEUR car, but now cannot justify that when much cheaper options are there.  Now the Model 3 is in vogue, it makes little sense to spend twice as much on an S, when all you want is a clean, efficient long range EV.

They obviously don't work for everyone, but if you're in the market for a reasonably premium car and are prepared to spend ~40,000 EUR on something, the Model 3 is pretty attractive.  I sat in a Polestar 2 recently, when it was on tour in London (unplanned, just happened to see it in a shopping centre.) I rather liked the cockpit a lot, and the overall vehicle design is more attractive to my eyes. Polestar 2 should be priced even more competitively than the Model 3.  Then there's the VW ID.3, which has an order book well into 2021 (at least 20,000 [3] but probably more by now) and the Kia e-Niro, Honda city EV, Peugeot e-208 & e-5008, Vauxhall e-Corsa & various Nissan EVs all due to launch soon ...

If there's a shortage of demand, manufacturers aren't feeling it. 

[1] https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/automakers-risk-massive-fines-co2-target-miss-analysts-say
[2] https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/05/tesla-model-3-jumps-to-1-in-the-netherlands-among-all-cars-cleantechnica-ev-sales-report/
[3] https://insideevs.com/news/353012/volkswagen-id3-reservations-exceed-20000/

[tszaboo]

The French tried to increase fuel prices which led to months of extremely violent protests. Increasing fuel prices hits the people who can least afford an EV the hardest. Besides the protests it is political suicide. In the Netherlands the people's support for EV subsidies is eroding quickly and increasing fuel prices even more is political suicide. What the Netherlands did do right IMHO is making cars which use a lot of fuel very expensive (for some cars the tax is 200% or more on top of the list price).

Global warming doesn't give a damn if you are rich or poor.
I didn't say increase fuel price, they should increase the price of that tractor fuel, that someone decided to put in a passenger car. If you are poor, you are not going to drive a diesel here, we both know why.  If they would increase the tax on diesel just by 20% above benzin, nobody would ever have a reason to buy a diesel car, so that would be solved.

Firstly the taxes are based on an empty vehicle. The difference in tax in the Netherlands for the cars you list is more than 20% and increase exponentially with weight. When compared by weight the road tax for a Tesla model S would be double of that of the regular VW Golf.

Yes, stupidest way to tax a car ever. I saw road taxation many different way.
- Horsepower output
- Purchase price
- engine displacement (1399 ccm engines)
- CO2 output per km (hold on a second, this would actually make sense, right?)
- but weight ??

So what do we end up with? A bunch of 20 year old Ford Ka-s driving around. Seriously, if I look around on the street it is such an eyesore that everyone is driving these shitboxes, clinging to them with the last breath, because buying a newer, more economic, safer, better looking more comfortable car is taxed just a little bit higher.

[David Hess]

Firstly the taxes are based on an empty vehicle. The difference in tax in the Netherlands for the cars you list is more than 20% and increase exponentially with weight. When compared by weight the road tax for a Tesla model S would be double of that of the regular VW Golf.

Yes, stupidest way to tax a car ever. I saw road taxation many different way.
- Horsepower output
- Purchase price
- engine displacement (1399 ccm engines)
- CO2 output per km (hold on a second, this would actually make sense, right?)
- but weight ??

In practice most taxes have nothing to do with external negatives and are just money grabs.  Energy use is close to proportional to damage to the environment and road but so is use of tires which is much easier to track.  The US is of course considering milage taxes so they can track where everybody drives.

- CO2 output per km (hold on a second, this would actually make sense, right?)

Total CO2 output would make sense but this is just a fuel tax which is one of the better ways.  Why would the efficiency matter in a practical way?

[nctnico]

It's always been weird to me how often most people seem to replace cars. Back in 2000 I bought a $500 car and drove it daily for 17 years. I'd still be driving it today if I hadn't gotten rear ended by a tanker truck. If you take care of a car and fix problems as the occur it's not hard to keep it running well and looking good for a very long time. I hear people complaining that they don't want to spend more on repairs than a car is worth but that doesn't make sense because no matter what you do, you ultimately spend more on a car than it's worth because with few exceptions it is a depreciating asset. Drive a new car off the lot and you've just lost more than a very expensive repair job.

Yes. I usually buy a 6 to 8 year old car with around 150k km on it. That costs between 4k and 5k euro plus 1k euro to get it into good shape. Then I drive it to >300k km. My current car from 2006 is over >300k but I decided to see if I can drive this one over 400k because it is still in pretty good condition (unlike my previous cars at that mileage). It costs about 1k euro again to replace the timing belt, shock absorbers and some other minor stuff. The car costs around 18 ct per km all-in to drive and it is not a small clunker.

[nctnico]

Also worth nothing that the EU will be charging European carmakers a heavy fine per kg(CO2e)/km over a set figure, determined partially by fleet size.  The fines begin in 2020 [1] and could amount to some 34 billion euros. So plenty of incentives there to lower CO2 emissions.  I welcome this, although I fear it is too little too late.

I also think this is a good incentive. Unfortunately manufacturers use EVs to achieve these goals while EVs aren't exactly zero CO2 emission since a lot of electricity still comes from fossil fuels. It would be better if there wheren't loop holes and new cars have to be way more efficient. As I wrote before in the Netherlands inefficient ICE cars are already hit with a hefty tax. More countries should do the same.

The Netherlands shows different sales figures. Tax breaks on the Tesla Model S stopped and sales dropped to zero. In the years 2016 to 2018 an average of 3100 Tesla Model S where sold anually in the Netherlands. In 2019 120 have been sold so far. That is a drop of over 90%. Other higher end EVs like the Jaguar I-pace show the same trend.

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

The Model 3 sales have indeed jumped up but that is only because it costs less then 50k euro. Next year the limit drops to 45k euro. AFAIK Tesla is even making short range Model 3s to keep the price below these kind of tax break limits.

[boffin]

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

You're not really trying to fight nctnico with facts are you?  That will never work when it comes to electric cars

[james_s]

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

You're not really trying to fight nctnico with facts are you?  That will never work when it comes to electric cars

That or solar roads, those two sacred topics are religion to him, facts be damned.

[tom66]

Also worth nothing that the EU will be charging European carmakers a heavy fine per kg(CO2e)/km over a set figure, determined partially by fleet size.  The fines begin in 2020 [1] and could amount to some 34 billion euros. So plenty of incentives there to lower CO2 emissions.  I welcome this, although I fear it is too little too late.

I also think this is a good incentive. Unfortunately manufacturers use EVs to achieve these goals while EVs aren't exactly zero CO2 emission since a lot of electricity still comes from fossil fuels. It would be better if there wheren't loop holes and new cars have to be way more efficient. As I wrote before in the Netherlands inefficient ICE cars are already hit with a hefty tax. More countries should do the same.

You're not wrong, but electric vehicles are currently the only *practical* way to make private vehicles CO2 neutral.  There is no where near enough land to produce biofuels for every petrol car that wants to do 16000km a year, and hydrogen is a waste of time for many previously stated reasons.

My ideal vehicle would probably be something like the original BMW i3 REx - electric for 120+ miles, petrol range extender for longer journeys but with 20 minute fast charge support (10-90%) so reaching the next fast charger is not too difficult.  It's a shame BMW discontinued the REx but it seems the EU was not too keen on it.

[nctnico]

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

You're not really trying to fight nctnico with facts are you?  That will never work when it comes to electric cars

That or solar roads, those two sacred topics are religion to him, facts be damned.

You are wrong on both accounts but never mind.

[nctnico]

Also worth nothing that the EU will be charging European carmakers a heavy fine per kg(CO2e)/km over a set figure, determined partially by fleet size.  The fines begin in 2020 [1] and could amount to some 34 billion euros. So plenty of incentives there to lower CO2 emissions.  I welcome this, although I fear it is too little too late.

I also think this is a good incentive. Unfortunately manufacturers use EVs to achieve these goals while EVs aren't exactly zero CO2 emission since a lot of electricity still comes from fossil fuels. It would be better if there wheren't loop holes and new cars have to be way more efficient. As I wrote before in the Netherlands inefficient ICE cars are already hit with a hefty tax. More countries should do the same.

You're not wrong, but electric vehicles are currently the only *practical* way to make private vehicles CO2 neutral.  There is no where near enough land to produce biofuels for every petrol car that wants to do 16000km a year, and hydrogen is a waste of time for many previously stated reasons.

It is too soon to draw this conclusion. There is so much develoment and progress in all these areas going on that even the huge companies have no idea what we will end up with. That is also the reason why it is not a good idea to buy an EV for long term (>5 years) use as a private individual if costs are a concern.