eevBLAB #63: How Affordable Are Electric Cars?

[mikeselectricstuff]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?
here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Doesn't matter when the EV costs 10's of thousands more than an ICE car.

With leasing it can still work out cheaper for people who do higher mileages, before you count lower maintainence costs and the convenience of not filling up ( assuming mostly home and/or workplace charging)
More so in areas where there are discounts on things like congestion charges, ferry crossings, parking etc.  These probably won't last forever, but probably long enough to  be worthwhile.

[mikeselectricstuff]

BTW I just decommissioned a 12yo IBM laptop battery. Left is old cell, right is new. Same size. Same capacity. The only improvement I see is that the newer one has faster charge/discharge. I discourage everybody to buy a full EV unless they only plan to use it in the big city and even then consider that at the moment we have zero, nil, nada recycleable parts in a lithium battery. So consider it very very un-green. Dead-end technology as far as I'm concerned.

EV batteries have proven to have good lifetimes - many well over 200K miles. Once the car has died, or capacity reduced too much, it can have a second life as renewables storage for home or grid. That alone could easily offset any end-of-life recycling issues.   
ISTR that some EV battery recycling trials started but had a problem of not enough batteries to recycle as they were lasting so long!

[nctnico]

BTW I just decommissioned a 12yo IBM laptop battery. Left is old cell, right is new. Same size. Same capacity. The only improvement I see is that the newer one has faster charge/discharge. I discourage everybody to buy a full EV unless they only plan to use it in the big city and even then consider that at the moment we have zero, nil, nada recycleable parts in a lithium battery. So consider it very very un-green. Dead-end technology as far as I'm concerned.

EV batteries have proven to have good lifetimes - many well over 200K miles.

In most cases yes but there are also horror stories about battery packs dying just outside the warranty period.

Once the car has died, or capacity reduced too much, it can have a second life as renewables storage for home or grid. That alone could easily offset any end-of-life recycling issues.   
ISTR that some EV battery recycling trials started but had a problem of not enough batteries to recycle as they were lasting so long!

I think the much bigger problem is that the rate of decay of a li-on battery goes down exponentially once the cell is below 80% of it's original capacity. And you'll also need to measure and sort the cells to create packs with cells which are worn identically. It may not make sense to re-use a cell because the remaining useful life is probably very short and the amount of effort is high.

[tom66]

It is too soon to draw this conclusion. There is so much develoment and progress in all these areas going on that even the huge companies have no idea what we will end up with. That is also the reason why it is not a good idea to buy an EV for long term (>5 years) use as a private individual if costs are a concern.

For the skeptics, it will always be "too soon".

EVs are clearly the future: sure, there may be improvements in the technology, but they are mature in many ways.  Concerns about charging stations are misguided.  Type2 CCS is a standard, and it has a long term vision for 350+ kW charging.  It is enshrined in law, the EU requires all new EVs to have CCS as standard (which is why the Model 3 has one and the Model S didn't, although it will soon, and the CCS port can be retrofitted.)   Fundamentally EVs charge on 230V AC for most home usage, high power DC charging is reserved for long trips.  Are you suggesting that we are likely to move away from 230V AC?  Because you might find your EV is the least of your problems then.

Biofuels will not be practical at scale for a simple reason, and that is because to meet carbon targets we need to be building out trees/forests on the land we would use for biofuels, not burning the alcohol or diesel that these crops can produce. The efficiency of photosynthesis is something like 2% so it is laughable to say that we could power the planet from biofuels at anywhere near the current scale we achieve. Solar PV charging EVs would be almost 15x more efficient in land area. Biogas/biodiesel will probably find some use in esoteric applications, e.g. mandated for site generators where grid connection is not viable, or perhaps in aviation.

Hydrogen FCEVs are unlikely to be practical because - well, just look at the technology.  To go 300 miles you need to use half your cargo area up to fit the tanks. You still need a lithium ion battery pack to have regen braking and to provide a power boost because the fuel cell stack can only output 80kW. So to get acceptable performance they add a 5kWh lithium ion battery which is more than half of what you get in a current generation PHEV. 

[Nuts and Proud]

There is a video by Electric Vehicle Man entitled "True Running Costs Of An Electric Car!"

He explains what it costs him in the UK.  Points raised include discounts from the list price when buying a new car.

https://youtu.be/XWg5tGyvq5U

[mikeselectricstuff]

This is another excellent vid on the economics from someone who knows battery chemistry inside out, showing that how EV can work out cheaper than a cheap or free ICE car  - start about 30 mins in.

[nctnico]

It is too soon to draw this conclusion. There is so much develoment and progress in all these areas going on that even the huge companies have no idea what we will end up with. That is also the reason why it is not a good idea to buy an EV for long term (>5 years) use as a private individual if costs are a concern.

For the skeptics, it will always be "too soon".

EVs are clearly the future: sure, there may be improvements in the technology, but they are mature in many ways.  Concerns about charging stations are misguided.  Type2 CCS is a standard, and it has a long term vision for 350+ kW charging.  It is enshrined in law, the EU requires all new EVs to have CCS as standard (which is why the Model 3 has one and the Model S didn't, although it will soon, and the CCS port can be retrofitted.)   Fundamentally EVs charge on 230V AC for most home usage, high power DC charging is reserved for long trips.  Are you suggesting that we are likely to move away from 230V AC?  Because you might find your EV is the least of your problems then.

Biofuels will not be practical at scale for a simple reason, and that is because to meet carbon targets we need to be building out trees/forests on the land we would use for biofuels, not burning the alcohol or diesel that these crops can produce. The efficiency of photosynthesis is something like 2% so it is laughable to say that we could power the planet from biofuels at anywhere near the current scale we achieve. Solar PV charging EVs would be almost 15x more efficient in land area. Biogas/biodiesel will probably find some use in esoteric applications, e.g. mandated for site generators where grid connection is not viable, or perhaps in aviation.

Hydrogen FCEVs are unlikely to be practical because - well, just look at the technology.  To go 300 miles you need to use half your cargo area up to fit the tanks. You still need a lithium ion battery pack to have regen braking and to provide a power boost because the fuel cell stack can only output 80kW. So to get acceptable performance they add a 5kWh lithium ion battery which is more than half of what you get in a current generation PHEV.

Sorry but you are completely wrong. For example: the 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need extra land. Just the parts of the plants we don't eat and there is plenty of such leftovers to make a large quantity of fuel and enough if ICE cars get more efficient (around 80 to 90 grams of CO2 per km). Also the calculated cost for hydrogen infrastructure is 4 times less compared to that needed for electric cars. You should really study the latest state of technology and you'll see the future hasn't been set in stone at all. As I wrote before: even the big companies don't know it so how can you be sure?

[tszaboo]

Hmm, as I can see, the VW Golf GTE is not sold in Australia. Nor the e-Golf. Nor the Passat GTE.

The Renault Zoe is, and it is cheap, compared to here, starting at 37000 AUD. Which is very expensive for a small town car of course.
And the i3 is 78000 AUD 
I think, given the specifics of the country, a plug-in would make more sense than an EV.

There are finally some very interesting cars in the plug-in market. The cheapest Outlander PHEV, 5 year old is sold at 8500 EUR or 14000 AUD. OK, this one has a lot of KM done, but this is the entry.

[nctnico]

This is another excellent vid on the economics from someone who knows battery chemistry inside out, showing that how EV can work out cheaper than a cheap or free ICE car  - start about 30 mins in.

He is leaving a lot of costs out. Who is going to pay for the EV charging infrastructure? Free charging isn't going to be around forever. Also his source to wheel comparison is off. Coal needs to be transported and mined as well. Not to mention CO2 from producing the battery pack. These kind of videos are not good sources of factual correct information. Better rely on peer reviewed scientific reports which use proper statistics and show error ranges on the numbers used.

[coppice]

The Renault Zoe is, and it is cheap, compared to here, starting at 37000 AUD. Which is very expensive for a small town car of course.

When you see a low price for a Zoe its without the battery (i.e. you have to lease the battery, with a monthly charge). It is quite an expensive car when you buy the whole car.

[EEVblog]

This is another excellent vid on the economics from someone who knows battery chemistry inside out, showing that how EV can work out cheaper than a cheap or free ICE car  - start about 30 mins in.

Not in Australia (have not watched the video, but I'm 100% confident), unless you are talking a fairly equivalent ICE car in terms of price, but then it's essentially luxury price car vs luxury price car.
For example, I can buy a practical ICE car for $20-$25k here (heck the cheapest new ICE car here is under $13k). But the cheapest fully electric car option here is around $55k, and that's for a LEAF which is the equivalent car to say a $25k Toyota Corolla in size and features etc.

[tom66]

Sorry but you are completely wrong. For example: the 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need extra land. Just the parts of the plants we don't eat and there is plenty of such leftovers to make a large quantity of fuel and enough if ICE cars get more efficient (around 80 to 90 grams of CO2 per km).

It will be interesting to follow biofuels, no doubt. However, current biofuel production still requires farmland to produce the product.  3rd generation biofuels are still in the R&D stage and investors like Exxon and most other research organisations have dropped algae biofuels.

I do hope algae biofuels succeed, if only for air travel to be long-term sustainable. Giving up aircraft because of CO2 would be a tragedy.

Also the calculated cost for hydrogen infrastructure is 4 times less compared to that needed for electric cars. You should really study the latest state of technology and you'll see the future hasn't been set in stone at all.

Really?

The vast majority of users will be able to charge at home - for the cost of a charge point or even a socket in the garage.  So, relatively little infrastructure required for journeys under ~200 miles. Where fast chargers are required, 50kW fast charging cabinets are now available for less than 15000 EUR each.  7kW AC fast chargers cost less than 400 EUR.

Hydrogen offers no at-home charging solution.  We have to build out "petrol stations" but offering hydrogen instead.  And the hydrogen stations are enormously expensive. About 5 million EUR for a two-car station that can service about 20 cars a day. And that station needs daily hydrogen deliveries on a truck, and costs about £10/kg which is equivalent to running a 25 mpg diesel car.

The big corps may not know exactly where the technology is going but there would need to be a huge number of breakthroughs to get hydrogen cars to the same level as EVs.  Most manufacturers of cars, with the exception of Toyota and Hyundai, have dropped their hydrogen FCEV funding in favour of battery technology and EVs. Spurred but none other than Tesla.

And with the infrastructure as it is, I highly doubt any EV will be obsolete in 10 years time, even if hydrogen cars somehow have this incredible breakthrough and become the dominant technology.  There will still be charging stations and AC mains available.

[Bud]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?

here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Did you include insurance into consideration?

[coppice]

It will be interesting to follow biofuels, no doubt. However, current biofuel production still requires farmland to produce the product.  3rd generation biofuels are still in the R&D stage and investors like Exxon and most other research organisations have dropped algae biofuels.

The picture for algae based fuels is really sad. For a time it seemed like they had enormous promise. They look pretty much dead in the water now. With people having abandoned hope, there are no resources being put into further work. Its unlikely any breakthroughs will occur unless they are a spinoff from some other biological activity.

[coppice]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?

here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Did you include insurance into consideration?

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

[nctnico]

The vast majority of users will be able to charge at home

Which vast majority? In The Netherlands 70% of the people can't charge from their own socket. In cities this rises to about 80% to 90%. These numbers come from a company which is building EV charging infrastructure. Also charging lots of EVs at home will require a massive upgrade of the electricity distribution network.

And 3rd generation bio-fuels are out of the R&D stage. Production in the US is around 400 to 500 million gallons per year. And this is from just a hand full of factories.

[SilverSolder]

The cheapest way to own an electric car is probably related to the cheapest way to own an ICE car:  Keep it boring...  buy a popular, proven, and reliable mass market model from a major manufacturer; stay away from the first few years of a new model.

Electric cars have not been around long enough (and have not been popular enough) for this to be possible yet.

And buy a 3-6 year old used car for significant lifecycle savings as well.

Many EVs are available in that age range, though as a happy 2015 LEAF owner, if you want the cheapest motoring, you probably want a 10 year old Honda or Toyota ICE car.

The Leaf is definitely at an attractive price point, especially used -  but the range is not very good, it seems to me.  Probably need a Honda generator in the trunk in case of emergencies!

[tszaboo]

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

And Teslas are PITA to repair. They use these fancy aluminium welding and other methods that a general purpose shop is not prepared to do. And replacement parts are super expensive. There is a guy online, he had to replace a model S door, and it was 6000 USD.

[coppice]

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

And Teslas are PITA to repair. They use these fancy aluminium welding and other methods that a general purpose shop is not prepared to do. And replacement parts are super expensive. There is a guy online, he had to replace a model S door, and it was 6000 USD.

There are numerous horror stories on YouTube about long delays and high costs for Tesla repairs, both crash repairs and breakdown repairs. In particular, people with minor bumps at the corners seem to end up with a crazy amount of the car being replaced. That's not really an electric car issue, though. Its a Tesla problem.

[tszaboo]

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

And Teslas are PITA to repair. They use these fancy aluminium welding and other methods that a general purpose shop is not prepared to do. And replacement parts are super expensive. There is a guy online, he had to replace a model S door, and it was 6000 USD.

There are numerous horror stories on YouTube about long delays and high costs for Tesla repairs, both crash repairs and breakdown repairs. In particular, people with minor bumps at the corners seem to end up with a crazy amount of the car being replaced. That's not really an electric car issue, though. Its a Tesla problem.

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

[boffin]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?
here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Did you include insurance into consideration?

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

The insurance rates on Teslas in the US did increase dramatically because of the difficulties in repairing them (mostly around availability of parts).  However, that has nothing to do with "EVs" and everything to do with a new manufacturer that doesn't have a handle on how to deal with the other parts of the auto business. (Rich Rebuilds series on buying a pre-owned Tesla should scare anyone away from buying a Tesla)

It is interesting to see how many doom and gloom people are nitpicking at pretty much anything they can think of; without any basis in reality

So far in this thread we've had

• EVs are heavier (10%), but road taxes will go WAAAY up (well in excess of the 10% percentage increase in weight)
• Insurance is more; it's not. It's inline with a similar ICE car
• Most people can't charge at home (debatable at best, when the only numbers thrown out come from a company wanting to install public charging)
• Tires are more expensive (guess what, they're expensive for an E63 AMG too)
• They depreciate faster (they don't, and used prices of Leafs show that)
• Teslas aren't selling in Europe (they are, in record numbers)

Yes, they have shorter range
Yes, they take ½-5hrs to charge (depending on how you feed them electrons)
Yes, they cost more to start with
However, if you drive under 200km/day; they can be VERY VERY VERY inexpensive (1/6th - 1/7th the operating costs before maintenance in my region)

If anyone here actually wants real-world evidence, there's another thread on EEVBlog called Electric Car Experiences (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/electric-car-experiences/) where you can ask real EV owners real questions.

[calin]

I am with Dave in the Corolla camp . I have a 2019 Corolla LE I got for ~ 13K USD. These Corolla-s just work...period. For the money there is no comparison - total cost of ownership is one of the best you can get. I got over 200K miles on it and the only thing I ever put in/on it was gas, oil and tires. I want to see a Tesla beat that cost / mile - when it does I buy one  .


Yeah ... driving a Corolla is neither fun or hip .. but is cheap !!

[thm_w]

The Leaf is definitely at an attractive price point, especially used -  but the range is not very good, it seems to me.  Probably need a Honda generator in the trunk in case of emergencies!

No the range is not good, but for driving around the city its fine, if you plug it in at night you will never have an emergency.
Here if you need long range you can rent a Prius for <$90/day which is reasonable if you only do a few long trips per year. Really depends on your lifestyle. Often people own a certain vehicle type that is really rarely used for that purpose (pickup truck, huge SUV, big camper van, whatever), and it would be cheaper to rent one when needed.

For Aus it would still work for commuting, IF the price wasn't so unobtainable and you had access to another vehicle:

Most Australians still rely on their cars for daily commuting. Aside from long travel distance, traffic congestion is another important factor in increasing commuting times. Encouraging alternative travel modes for commuting could potentially relieve congestion.

The HILDA Survey reveals that close to 28 per cent of workers live and work in the same postcode. About 55% of workers live within 10km of their place of work. This suggests there is a huge potential to promote active travel – cycling and walking – for daily commuting trips. Only for a minority (11 per cent) are the postcodes of the home and place of work 30 or more kilometres apart.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare


I did go on a 240km round trip and throw a 2kW generator in the back just in case, but it was unnecessary, as there was a fast charger about mid-way (Squamish, BC). It works though, and lets you drop the weight of the gas engine when its not needed.

[maginnovision]

Everyone I know requires their vehicle to have at least 240 miles range at about 80 miles per hour(common trips). I suppose you could drive slower but when traffic is moving it's scary not to move with it on our freeways. When I worked at BMW i3 leases were nearly free. Nobody leased one because nobody could make it to and from work(no chargers where employees parked and only a couple for customers/service). Once I can make my normal drives without requiring to stop and charge maybe I'll look into an EV. Until then they aren't worth the price premium. All the price breakdowns I see assume 0 issues ever but I've worked on electric cars and have friends who work for Tesla. Not everything is covered under warranty forever for any vehicle. Powertrain issues are significantly less common than body issues also.

For now if I bought any vehicle with some sort of electric powertrain it'd have to be a hybrid.

[boffin]

I am with Dave in the Corolla camp . I have a 2019 Corolla LE I got for ~ 13K USD. These Corolla-s just work...period. For the money there is no comparison - total cost of ownership is one of the best you can get. I got over 200K miles on it and the only thing I ever put in/on it was gas, oil and tires. I want to see a Tesla beat that cost / mile - when it does I buy one  .

Completely agree.  The Corolla, (and Honda Civic) are extremely well made and reliable vehicles.  If I were in the market for an ICE vehicle, they'd be on the list.

Although, I do wonder where you found a 2019 Corolla with 200k miles on it for $13k, or did you mean 2009 ?