eevBLAB #63: How Affordable Are Electric Cars?

[james_s]

If you need 240 miles of range at 80mph then an EV is not for you. EVs are for commuting, a huge percentage of people commute less than 50 miles a day round trip and 80mph is well above the legal speed limit in most US states. Heck around here you're lucky to average 40mph speed limits aside. For those people EVs work well and are very economical.

[maginnovision]

That's my point, for now EV's aren't even serviceable for everyone, even if costs were equal or lower. If I'm driving down the 210 at 65 MPH, It's going to be scary having cars fly by me the entire time. 80 won't even get you pulled over most of the time the cops just drive by people looking for speeders doing 90+.

[calin]

DOH .. yep 2009. 


Quote from: boffin on Today at 12:51:45 pm

>Quote from: calin on Today at 11:51:07 am

I am with Dave in the Corolla camp . I have a 2019 Corolla LE I got for ~ 13K USD. These Corolla-s just work...period. For the money there is no comparison - total cost of ownership is one of the best you can get. I got over 200K miles on it and the only thing I ever put in/on it was gas, oil and tires. I want to see a Tesla beat that cost / mile - when it does I buy one  .

Completely agree.  The Corolla, (and Honda Civic) are extremely well made and reliable vehicles.  If I were in the market for an ICE vehicle, they'd be on the list.

Although, I do wonder where you found a 2019 Corolla with 200k miles on it for $13k, or did you mean 2009 ?

[f4eru]

Wow, Dave, crazy.
Prius non plugin to model 3 is 3x in Australia ? That's really really crazy. What is this cost difference coming from ? is the vehicle tax so damn non-linear ?

In Austria (Not Australia), the Prius PHEV costs the same than the model 3, and the non plugin is probably like 1.4x

In france whee I live, it's like base prius is 30keuro, base model 3 is 40keuro, so 1,3x only. After 5 years, the model 3 is cheaper to own than a VW golf diesel or gas !

Now where you're wrong is that the cost of batteries is dropping 25% or so every year, and the incentives are in the 10% range, so incentives typically only boost EVs one year, depending on countries.

Now Dave, don't worry, cost parity with ICE will come in 3-4 years for the mid-range cars, and that's purchase price. TCO per km for 5-8 years are already lower in a lot of countries.

[f4eru]

For the skeptics, it will always be "too soon".

EVs are clearly the future: sure, there may be improvements in the technology, but they are mature in many ways

If you look at some countries (Norway, China, California...), then EVs are the present.
In many other countries, they are still unfortunately the future.
But time is coming in a couple of Years.

[Jr460]

Not sue if someone else stated this, but I kept seeing people talk abut Norway and and EV subsidies.   Others asked how much they pay in taxes to support that.....

I'm not from Norway, I have a few friends in Norway, last time I was there was 4 years ago.

Over drinks in in a Oslo bar with my friend and a bunch of locals, i forget the exact subject, bit it ended like this "... yea, we used to care about that, then we got oil, now we don't care."

Norway has massive off shore oil, they are selling it and the government gets a ton of tax revenues from it.   Think about that the next time you read about Norway and public programs or spending.   Not saying they are wrong, but you can not compare them with your country, not even other Scando ones.

[f4eru]

I think it compares.
In my country (France), 62% the pump price of gasoline is tax, while only 27% of it is the price is the cost of raw oil.
So my country potentially gets more tax on that liter of gas than Norway even if the base oil comes 100% from Norway.

And yes, it's financing progress using actual bad pollution as a leverage.
And yes, it means they'll kill their own "gold mine" by incentivising EVs.
But this is urgently necessary to transition to renewables.

[EEVblog]

For me the cost of running an ICE car isn't that much for the amount of use it gets. Assuming recharging is free from my solar (or office building), I'd save maybe $850 a year in petrol costs.
The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV. To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

[wraper]

To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

Not true. https://www.tesla.com/support/car-maintenance

[Skycrane]

Even if the price was closer to affordable for a Tesla, there seems to be (in Australia at least) big question marks over the availability of comprehensive insurance, and the cost of it.  And then even with insurance how easy it is to obtain reliable repairs? and how well someone will fair with the insurance company if they actually make a claim?  Vehicle insurers in Australia seem to have a bad reputation at the best of times when it comes to making a claim, slipping out of them anyway they can.  Insurance availability/cost for a Tesla never seems to get a mention, but if you shell out $100K+ on a vehicle, I'll bet you will want insurance!!

The other negative for me is fire risk.  All those battery cells seem to be at risk of spontaneous combustion... recent Tesla fires are a bit of a worry.  And does the fire risk increase with the age of the vehicle?  I suspect so.  btw, if I were getting a Tesla, I'd make sure my insurance policy (assuming I could get one) actually covers fire ... it wouldn't surprise me if insurance companies start slipping a small-print exemption clause into their Tesla policies excluding cover for "Tesla death by spontaneous combustion".  If that situation is covered, then perhaps that is one of the reasons for the extra large insurance premiums.

Cost aside, for now I'll stick to my trusty ICE vehicle, thanks.

[james_s]

You are aware aren't you, that gasoline powered cars catch fire all the time? I've personally witnessed 3 different cars fully engulfed on the side of the road and those are just the ones I've seen. All it takes is a small fuel leak where it can drip on a hot exhaust manifold.

There is absolutely no evidence that EVs are any more prone to fire than conventional cars. If you claim otherwise then I want to see some data to back it up.

[tom66]

For me the cost of running an ICE car isn't that much for the amount of use it gets. Assuming recharging is free from my solar (or office building), I'd save maybe $850 a year in petrol costs.
The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV. To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

Right now, this is the case because EVs are expensive in Australia.

In the UK I can buy an older Leaf for £7,000. It's ugly as sin, but the girlfriend loves the idea of a car like that to drive around in. And, the annual savings in petrol means the car is "paid off" in 3-4 years of driving, at the same time, we can feel less guilty driving into the busy city centre with it, and we get free parking, tolls, no "road tax", etc.

Personally I'd love a VW e-Up! or even a Renault Twizy for shorter trips; driving the GTE around to go to the shops to pick up milk seems ridiculous!

[f4eru]

Yep, that myth has been debunked also.
EVs catch fire 20x less than ICEs (percentually)

Service costs are not the same, those are typically 1/4 compared to ICE, so you can over the long run save probably 1500/year.
But the model3 price is still astonishing in AUS. What is the "luxury tax" tax rate ?

[Miyuki]

It is not just a price of battery even motors are astonishingly expensive
For example I want to convert one motorcycle to EV, but but electric motor with permanent magnets cost similar cost as motorcycle ICE
I wonder if prices of motors are just today high margin or is it real material cost
As today lithium battery prices goes very close to material prices

I would like to have electric car for commuting, but today it still have no sense, physics and market cannot be fooled, when is something more expensive, then it have more energy input and it is less environmental friendly

[nctnico]

There is absolutely no evidence that EVs are any more prone to fire than conventional cars. If you claim otherwise then I want to see some data to back it up.

The problem is not cars getting on fire in general but EVs with burning batteries are a magnitude squared harder to extuingish.

[nctnico]

To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

Not true. https://www.tesla.com/support/car-maintenance

And how about other brands? Generally speaking you'll need to adhere to the mandated service intervals in order to keep the warranty. BTW on my version of the Tesla website it says that having a Tesla serviced at a non-authorised garage may affect the warranty (which means no warranty if you don't bring it to Tesla for repairs).

Service costs are not the same, those are typically 1/4 compared to ICE, so you can over the long run save probably 1500/year.

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced? With 15k km/year I spend about 100 to 150 euro including the mandatory road safety inspection.

[f4eru]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced? With 15k km/year I spend about 100 to 150 euro including the mandatory road safety inspection.

Nope. 1500Euro  a Year is what I save combined in diesel+maintenance (25 000km/Y). And it's probably more saving, I calculated a pretty conservative figure.
15 000 saving over the 10 Years I plan to own the vehicle, hell Yeah, totally worth it !

150 Euros maintenance a year for an ICE car is really not realistic, even for 15000 km, and even doing everything and the timing belt yourself. That does not even pay two tyres, let alone the occasional failing starter, or leaky injector, replacing a damper pair, or rusty exhaust whatsoever.

An example with a realistic 1300$/Year on a basic car (Maintenance + repair):
https://www.edmunds.com/ford/focus/2015/cost-to-own/#style=200696414

[nctnico]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced? With 15k km/year I spend about 100 to 150 euro including the mandatory road safety inspection.

Nope. 1500Euro  a Year is what I save combined in diesel+maintenance (25 000km/Y)

150 Euros maintenance a year for a car is really not realistic, even for 15000 km, and even doing the timing belt yourself. That does not even pay two tyres, let alone the occasional failing starter, or leaky injector, whatsoever.

Ah, so an EV doesn't need tyres and brakes?
But I'm writing about the two Ford Focus cars we own (both on gas/petrol). It is just a yearly oil change and small stuff like a lamp or an air filter. For the rest they are practically maintenance free (one is at 200k km the other at 300k km). The timing belt interval change is 160k km so the costs per year are very low. At around 15k km per year the timing belt change is more like purchase price than annual price and goes into the write-off.

[f4eru]

Tyres change are pretty much the only maintenance, and yes, they remain.
Brakes don't need service, they are nearly never used.
over 80% of maintenance goes away, so in the ford focus example, you save 1000$ on maintenance, and 1200$ on fuels /year.

10 Year ownership -> 22000$ saving. Yep.

[nctnico]

You have a weird way of telling yourself you get rich.  I think you are letting yourself get ripped off by a car dealer if you pay 1500 euro per year for maintenance of a car.

[mikeselectricstuff]

The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV.

EV servicing costs less (or at least should do) as there are a lot fewer things  to do - no oil change, spark plugs, timing belts, air filters etc.  Also brake discs/pads last way longer as most braking is via regen.

[mikeselectricstuff]

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

PHEVs are a bit of a dead-end- a major advantage of EVs is that they are mechanically simple, a PHEV is the opposite.

Also Toyota should be shot for their "self-charging hybrid" bullshit which has done a lot of damage to public perception and information - people think a HEV is better than a PHEV because they don't need to plug it in 

[EEVblog]

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

PHEVs are a bit of a dead-end- a major advantage of EVs is that they are mechanically simple, a PHEV is the opposite.

Sure, but ICE cars like the Japanese ones are incredibly reliable. 5 year warranty minimum are standard, some 7 years now.

Also Toyota should be shot for their "self-charging hybrid" bullshit which has done a lot of damage to public perception and information - people think a HEV is better than a PHEV because they don't need to plug it in 

Yes, HEV's are just  silly, I can't believe they are making a comeback 

[EEVblog]

The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV.

EV servicing costs less (or at least should do) as there are a lot fewer things  to do - no oil change, spark plugs, timing belts, air filters etc.  Also brake discs/pads last way longer as most braking is via regen.

You don't know where dealers make their money do you 
My Toyota Corolla costs about $170 to service every 6 months or 10,000k
Occasionally higher for a major service interval.
A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k
https://www.drivezero.com.au/cars/tesla/tesla-maintenance-australia-details-and-pricing/

[f4eru]

I think you are letting yourself get ripped off by a car dealer if you pay 1500 euro per year for maintenance of a car.

Nope, that's realistic.
Sure. I had approx 400€ maintenance costs/Y for my old Diesel (and that is a real average figure including everything), because I did most myself.
Let it be done by a small shop, pay double
let it be done by a brand dealer, pay double again.
Buy a German car instead of a Japanese, double that amount again.

A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k

Nope. That inspection is highly optionnal, and nobody does that every year.

for realistic maintenance, here are the true costs :
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/12/tesla-model-3-maintenance-guide-costs-even-lower-than-i-thought/