eevBLAB #63: How Affordable Are Electric Cars?

[EEVblog]

Why doesn't Dave own an electric car?
Let's find out how affordable and available electric cars are in Australia...
How much does a Tesla cost?
How viable are electric cars without government subsidies?

[boffin]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?

here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

[Cliff Matthews]

Gotta love those diesel chargers though..

[nctnico]

Just look at the Netherlands for an example where EVs are quite common and the market has somewhat matured. The government is seriously putting the brakes on electric car subsidies (low tax tarifs) and sales have dropped to near zero levels for the more expensive models (like the Tesla Model S and Jaguar I-pace). Subsidies should create a momentum in a market but for electric cars they don't do it. Everywhere in the world the market for electric cars is artificially created / sustained.

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

IMHO a Tesla is a particulary bad choice when it comes to maintenance costs (and reliability as well) if you want to drive it until it just stops running. Even the model 3 is basically a high performance car and 18" or 20" tyres are way more expensive  (I'm seeing prices varying from 400 to 1200 euro for replacing 2 tyres on a Model S) to replace compared to 14" or 15" tyres on a standard steel rim. Ditto for the brakes and other parts which are subject to wear. Because Tesla is quite rare compared to other cars be prepared to have to rely on / pay Tesla for the parts instead of cheaper third party after market / OEM parts. If you still plan to buy an EV then look for the established brands like VW, Nissan, Toyota, etc. Chances are parts are exchangeable with ICE based cars so maintenance is likely way cheaper because there are more parts available.

Another problem I foresee with buying an electric car and driving it until it stops is progress of technology. Will there still be a charging infrastructure in 15 years or are you left with a dud you can only charge at home (if you have your own drive way) and use for short trips around the house? Battery technology may have improved to a point where you can go to a super charger and charge within 5 minutes or EVs may have gone the way of the Dodo. Nobody knows. There so many unknowns at the moment that buying an electric car is a big financial gamble. With a used car the battery is a big unknown. Recently Mercedes quoted an owner of a second hand 5 year old Smart Fortwo a price of 17000 euro to replace the battery. Needless to say the car is beyond economic repair. If you really want to drive an EV then lease it. At least you'll know the costs upfront and if something is wrong with it you bring it back for a new one.

Also if you are in Australia on coal power then it makes way more sense to buy a hybrid if you care about CO2 emissions as well. The Toyota Prius hybrid may not be a looker but it has an excellent fuel economy compared to any other car.

[johnlsenchak]

The people  who think Dave should get a expensive  electric  car,  don't have two children to support . 


What is the  total cost in  Australasian dollars raising  two  children  for 18 years    ?  The same cost as at that most expensive  Tesla  for  $200, 000?

The  choice is  raise  your kids  right and  spoil them or the luxury  vehicle, you can't do both on  a  set income.

[SilverSolder]

The cheapest way to own an electric car is probably related to the cheapest way to own an ICE car:  Keep it boring...  buy a popular, proven, and reliable mass market model from a major manufacturer; stay away from the first few years of a new model.

Electric cars have not been around long enough (and have not been popular enough) for this to be possible yet.

[boffin]

blah blah...

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

blah blah....

2019 weight VW eGolf: 1567kg (https://www.vwmodels.ca/2019/egolf/specifications?lang=en_ca)
2019 weight VW GTI: 1389kg + 50l fuel = 1426kg (https://www.vwmodels.ca/2019/golf-gti/specifications?lang=en_ca)
less than 10% heavier.

As for countering your argument that somehow tires are more expensive for an electric car vs an ICE one; it's just silly; kind of like your argument how wind resistance has more percentage increase in drag on an EV vs an ICE car back in the old EV thread.

[Jfcarrer]

the nissan leaf starts at 72k AUD in Brazil, because... reasons.   

[bdunham7]

Why doesn't Dave own an electric car?
Let's find out how affordable and available electric cars are in Australia...
How much does a Tesla cost?
How viable are electric cars without government subsidies?

You're right about EVs not being a cost-effective equivalent to an ordinary car for the average person.  Teslas aren't replacing Civics and Corollas.  They're replacing BMWs, Benzes and Ferraris.  And here in Southern California $100K+ cars are all over the place.  Yes, the incentives help--everyone likes free money--but you have to spend quite a bit to get it.  They've tried to adjust the incentives to avoid giving all the credits to rich people, but I don't know how successful that has been.

As far as EV viability for common folk goes, I think there's two options--the two-car solution, a low-range EV and another car (which is what we have) or the single-car solution, a PHEV hybrid with some range, like the Volt.  No amount of EV range is going to ever match the range and convenience of our ICE car  on long trips and no long range EV is ever going to be as affordable (cheap) as our 76-mile Focus Electric.  If you need both of those things--range and reasonable cost--the only EV choice is PHEV. 

As for government incentives, there's a lot more than meets the eye.  The modern EV market was mostly created by a Californian requirement from 20 years or so ago that mandated that any manufacturer selling cars in California had to sell a certain percentage using alternative fuels--electric, CNG, hydrogen, etc.  The manufacturers managed to forestall this for a while claiming impracticability, but eventually they had to comply.  This resulted in an 'incentive' for EVs that goes beyond the $10,450 in credits that we received as consumers--an EV manufacturer can sell their manufacturing credits to another manufacturer to fulfill their EV percentage requirement.  Tesla sold those credits for billions of dollars and they'd likely be broke by now without them.  EVs might actually be approaching viability now without government incentives, but they certainly wouldn't have been viable 5 or 10 years ago.

[james_s]

I don't know why people fixate on Tesla, they're the high end. I know a bunch of people who have EVs, none of them are Teslas. There are several Nissan Leafs, a Chevy Spark, and a couple of Kia Souls, most of them were purchased as lease returns for <$10k at which point they're proving to be very economical. A few of them have been commuting daily in their EVs for several years now and they're still working great, the ~60 mile range is ample because like most people in the US they have multiple car households. I don't know if it makes any sense for Dave to have one or not, as I've stated many times in a number of threads EVs don't make sense for everyone. There are millions of people for whom they work very well for, if you are not one of those people then move along and get something that makes sense for you and stop trying to piss on everyone else's parade.

[EEVblog]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?
here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Doesn't matter when the EV costs 10's of thousands more than an ICE car.

[EEVblog]

I don't know why people fixate on Tesla, they're the high end. I know a bunch of people who have EVs, none of them are Teslas. There are several Nissan Leafs, a Chevy Spark, and a couple of Kia Souls, most of them were purchased as lease returns for <$10k at which point they're proving to be very economical.

I'd pick up a Leaf for $10k if I could but they are double that for a 5yo+ model

[EEVblog]

This resulted in an 'incentive' for EVs that goes beyond the $10,450 in credits that we received as consumers

You can buy a brand new small ICE car with that US$10k 

[EEVblog]

the nissan leaf starts at 72k AUD in Brazil, because... reasons.   

 
I'll race out and buy the bargain $55k version here then!

[sleemanj]

I see  a surprising number of BMW i3 around Christchurch NZ, maybe they just stand out more but there really does seem to be quite a lot of them on the roads, it's especially interesting given NZ's vehicle fleet mostly being used Japanese imports.

Of course I expect the Nissan Leaf is by far the most numerous EV on our roads, shame it is so damn ugly.

[james_s]

I don't know why people fixate on Tesla, they're the high end. I know a bunch of people who have EVs, none of them are Teslas. There are several Nissan Leafs, a Chevy Spark, and a couple of Kia Souls, most of them were purchased as lease returns for <$10k at which point they're proving to be very economical.

I'd pick up a Leaf for $10k if I could but they are double that for a 5yo+ model

Apparently the situation is much more favorable out where I am, there are dozens of clean used EVs for <$10k.


https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/sss?query=nissan+leaf&excats=20-99-3-14-27-1-19-7&sort=rel&max_price=10000

https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/sss?query=chevy+spark&excats=20-99-3-14-27-1-19-7&sort=rel&max_price=10000

https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/sss?query=Fiat+500E&sort=rel&min_price=4000&max_price=10000

[Towger]

We are still waiting for you to fix your current electric car:
https://youtu.be/0EQetm_qWDg

[Kjetil]

Here in Norway the cheapest Tesla S (comparable to the video) is 61 696 AU$, with the cheapest leaf at 47 114 AU$.

Over the last year the manufacturers have released a lot of professional use cars and vans as well, which will be great for city users that rarely drive very far every day.

Since electric cars are so normal now, with approximately 50 % of new cars being electric, they are starting to have to pay for toll roads and ferries, which have previously been free. The levels are still significantly reduced though, so it's still worth while.

Distribution of different car types sold in the country this year:


(Ladbary hybrid = Plug-in hybrid, Bensin = Gasoline, Elektrisitet = Electrical)

Tesla are having major issues with delivery, support and servicing here, being a completely new company without an existing infrastructure, so everything isn't perfect in the Tesla camp, even if they sell a lot of cars.

[tocsa120ls]

German prices:
Full EV, at the moment only the Model3 is sold, that is a nice round €50k
Hybrid, now you have a selection
Yaris (Vitz?) 1.5 - €15k
Hyundai Ioniq - €19.999
KIA Niro - €23k
Corolla wagon 1.8 - €28k
Prius €28k
Outlander PHEV 2.4 - €32k



BTW I just decommissioned a 12yo IBM laptop battery. Left is old cell, right is new. Same size. Same capacity. The only improvement I see is that the newer one has faster charge/discharge. I discourage everybody to buy a full EV unless they only plan to use it in the big city and even then consider that at the moment we have zero, nil, nada recycleable parts in a lithium battery. So consider it very very un-green. Dead-end technology as far as I'm concerned.

[elmo]

Just look at the Netherlands for an example where EVs are quite common and the market has somewhat matured. The government is seriously putting the brakes on electric car subsidies (low tax tarifs) and sales have dropped to near zero levels for the more expensive models (like the Tesla Model S and Jaguar I-pace). Subsidies should create a momentum in a market but for electric cars they don't do it. Everywhere in the world the market for electric cars is artificially created / sustained.

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

In Norway the tax losses are in the order of 5,7 billion NOK, about 0,55% of the states income in 2017 because of EVs. Cars in total contribute with about 44 billions, or 4,27% of the national budget in comparison. The numbers are going to change a lot over the next few years, seeing that about 50% of all new car sales are EVs, meaning that when the total number of EVs start catching up with the total number of ICE cars there need to be a significant increase in taxes somewhere to make up the difference. The national budget is running a deficit of 259 billion NOK, witch they pump petroleum money into, to balance the budget. There is a limit for how much, and I don't see cars being that important in the bigger picture for them to start pumping a significant portion of the petroleum money in to the budget to keep EV owners happy in the long run.

[Psi]

Can always buy a ticket for the Chicago Chesed Fund Tesla Raffle for $100.
1 in 5555 chance to win a Tesla S, X, Y or 3 or 50k cash
AFAIK it's open to intl entries.

1 in 5555 is pretty good odds compared to buying $100 of lotto tickets.
https://www.ccfraffle.com/?utm_source=richrebuilds&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=tesla2019

Can buy 2 tickets for $175 if you use the code Rich Rebuilds.

[tszaboo]

The subsidy is not an evil thing.
This is what happens now with a tesla:
The company makes it for say, 50K. Then they apply import tax 10%. Then they add VAT, 10%, then they apply a Luxury car tax 33%. Then they make you pay some exra fees, like registration, license plate fee, this fee, that fee. Total taxation is about +61% in this case. It is your own greedy government that makes these cars expensive.
If they would subsidize it all they would do is remove some of the tax. You are not taking the money out of the pocket of Joe Average. Norway does this, and they dont "give money" to the people, they just dont take it away.

What is the most infuriating, when a government sets out a enviromental target: we are going to reduce carbon emissions by x% in 5 years. Are they really commited to this target? If they would be, they would just say: OK, guys, no tax for electric cars, and way less for plug in hybrid. And we increase tax on Diesel by 200%, cause NOx is also bad.

Oh, but then where does the money to the government come from? All vehicle related tax accounts for 6 BEUR. It is about 3,5% of the total budget. It is a drop in a budget. It is possible to compensate it, if you tax google amazon facebook etc... with the same rate as local companies.

[TheAmmoniacal]

I think it's inaccurate to equate tax exemptions with subsidies. Norway do not give money to electric car companies.

[nctnico]

What is the most infuriating, when a government sets out a enviromental target: we are going to reduce carbon emissions by x% in 5 years. Are they really commited to this target? If they would be, they would just say: OK, guys, no tax for electric cars, and way less for plug in hybrid. And we increase tax on Diesel by 200%, cause NOx is also bad.

The French tried to increase fuel prices which led to months of extremely violent protests. Increasing fuel prices hits the people who can least afford an EV the hardest. Besides the protests it is political suicide. In the Netherlands the people's support for EV subsidies is eroding quickly and increasing fuel prices even more is political suicide. What the Netherlands did do right IMHO is making cars which use a lot of fuel very expensive (for some cars the tax is 200% or more on top of the list price).

[nctnico]

blah blah...

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

blah blah....

2019 weight VW eGolf: 1567kg (https://www.vwmodels.ca/2019/egolf/specifications?lang=en_ca)
2019 weight VW GTI: 1389kg + 50l fuel = 1426kg (https://www.vwmodels.ca/2019/golf-gti/specifications?lang=en_ca)
less than 10% heavier.

Firstly the taxes are based on an empty vehicle. The difference in tax in the Netherlands for the cars you list is more than 20% and increase exponentially with weight. When compared by weight the road tax for a Tesla model S would be double of that of the regular VW Golf.

As for countering your argument that somehow tires are more expensive for an electric car vs an ICE one; it's just silly;

Read more careful next time. I was writing how Teslas are so horribly expensive to maintain and repair and I was pointing to other brands (like VW especially for you). Just google for 'tesla maintenance costs'. As james_s noted many people focus on Tesla only but there is a whole flurry of other electric car manufacturers out there. If I'm not mistaken Nissan (silently) sells more electric cars than Tesla.