eevBLAB #63: How Affordable Are Electric Cars?

[EEVblog]

Why doesn't Dave own an electric car?
Let's find out how affordable and available electric cars are in Australia...
How much does a Tesla cost?
How viable are electric cars without government subsidies?

[boffin]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?

here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

[Cliff Matthews]

Gotta love those diesel chargers though..

[nctnico]

Just look at the Netherlands for an example where EVs are quite common and the market has somewhat matured. The government is seriously putting the brakes on electric car subsidies (low tax tarifs) and sales have dropped to near zero levels for the more expensive models (like the Tesla Model S and Jaguar I-pace). Subsidies should create a momentum in a market but for electric cars they don't do it. Everywhere in the world the market for electric cars is artificially created / sustained.

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

IMHO a Tesla is a particulary bad choice when it comes to maintenance costs (and reliability as well) if you want to drive it until it just stops running. Even the model 3 is basically a high performance car and 18" or 20" tyres are way more expensive  (I'm seeing prices varying from 400 to 1200 euro for replacing 2 tyres on a Model S) to replace compared to 14" or 15" tyres on a standard steel rim. Ditto for the brakes and other parts which are subject to wear. Because Tesla is quite rare compared to other cars be prepared to have to rely on / pay Tesla for the parts instead of cheaper third party after market / OEM parts. If you still plan to buy an EV then look for the established brands like VW, Nissan, Toyota, etc. Chances are parts are exchangeable with ICE based cars so maintenance is likely way cheaper because there are more parts available.

Another problem I foresee with buying an electric car and driving it until it stops is progress of technology. Will there still be a charging infrastructure in 15 years or are you left with a dud you can only charge at home (if you have your own drive way) and use for short trips around the house? Battery technology may have improved to a point where you can go to a super charger and charge within 5 minutes or EVs may have gone the way of the Dodo. Nobody knows. There so many unknowns at the moment that buying an electric car is a big financial gamble. With a used car the battery is a big unknown. Recently Mercedes quoted an owner of a second hand 5 year old Smart Fortwo a price of 17000 euro to replace the battery. Needless to say the car is beyond economic repair. If you really want to drive an EV then lease it. At least you'll know the costs upfront and if something is wrong with it you bring it back for a new one.

Also if you are in Australia on coal power then it makes way more sense to buy a hybrid if you care about CO2 emissions as well. The Toyota Prius hybrid may not be a looker but it has an excellent fuel economy compared to any other car.

[johnlsenchak]

The people  who think Dave should get a expensive  electric  car,  don't have two children to support . 


What is the  total cost in  Australasian dollars raising  two  children  for 18 years    ?  The same cost as at that most expensive  Tesla  for  $200, 000?

The  choice is  raise  your kids  right and  spoil them or the luxury  vehicle, you can't do both on  a  set income.

[SilverSolder]

The cheapest way to own an electric car is probably related to the cheapest way to own an ICE car:  Keep it boring...  buy a popular, proven, and reliable mass market model from a major manufacturer; stay away from the first few years of a new model.

Electric cars have not been around long enough (and have not been popular enough) for this to be possible yet.

[boffin]

blah blah...

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

blah blah....

2019 weight VW eGolf: 1567kg (https://www.vwmodels.ca/2019/egolf/specifications?lang=en_ca)
2019 weight VW GTI: 1389kg + 50l fuel = 1426kg (https://www.vwmodels.ca/2019/golf-gti/specifications?lang=en_ca)
less than 10% heavier.

As for countering your argument that somehow tires are more expensive for an electric car vs an ICE one; it's just silly; kind of like your argument how wind resistance has more percentage increase in drag on an EV vs an ICE car back in the old EV thread.

[Jfcarrer]

the nissan leaf starts at 72k AUD in Brazil, because... reasons.   

[bdunham7]

Why doesn't Dave own an electric car?
Let's find out how affordable and available electric cars are in Australia...
How much does a Tesla cost?
How viable are electric cars without government subsidies?

You're right about EVs not being a cost-effective equivalent to an ordinary car for the average person.  Teslas aren't replacing Civics and Corollas.  They're replacing BMWs, Benzes and Ferraris.  And here in Southern California $100K+ cars are all over the place.  Yes, the incentives help--everyone likes free money--but you have to spend quite a bit to get it.  They've tried to adjust the incentives to avoid giving all the credits to rich people, but I don't know how successful that has been.

As far as EV viability for common folk goes, I think there's two options--the two-car solution, a low-range EV and another car (which is what we have) or the single-car solution, a PHEV hybrid with some range, like the Volt.  No amount of EV range is going to ever match the range and convenience of our ICE car  on long trips and no long range EV is ever going to be as affordable (cheap) as our 76-mile Focus Electric.  If you need both of those things--range and reasonable cost--the only EV choice is PHEV. 

As for government incentives, there's a lot more than meets the eye.  The modern EV market was mostly created by a Californian requirement from 20 years or so ago that mandated that any manufacturer selling cars in California had to sell a certain percentage using alternative fuels--electric, CNG, hydrogen, etc.  The manufacturers managed to forestall this for a while claiming impracticability, but eventually they had to comply.  This resulted in an 'incentive' for EVs that goes beyond the $10,450 in credits that we received as consumers--an EV manufacturer can sell their manufacturing credits to another manufacturer to fulfill their EV percentage requirement.  Tesla sold those credits for billions of dollars and they'd likely be broke by now without them.  EVs might actually be approaching viability now without government incentives, but they certainly wouldn't have been viable 5 or 10 years ago.

[james_s]

I don't know why people fixate on Tesla, they're the high end. I know a bunch of people who have EVs, none of them are Teslas. There are several Nissan Leafs, a Chevy Spark, and a couple of Kia Souls, most of them were purchased as lease returns for <$10k at which point they're proving to be very economical. A few of them have been commuting daily in their EVs for several years now and they're still working great, the ~60 mile range is ample because like most people in the US they have multiple car households. I don't know if it makes any sense for Dave to have one or not, as I've stated many times in a number of threads EVs don't make sense for everyone. There are millions of people for whom they work very well for, if you are not one of those people then move along and get something that makes sense for you and stop trying to piss on everyone else's parade.

[EEVblog]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?
here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Doesn't matter when the EV costs 10's of thousands more than an ICE car.

[EEVblog]

I don't know why people fixate on Tesla, they're the high end. I know a bunch of people who have EVs, none of them are Teslas. There are several Nissan Leafs, a Chevy Spark, and a couple of Kia Souls, most of them were purchased as lease returns for <$10k at which point they're proving to be very economical.

I'd pick up a Leaf for $10k if I could but they are double that for a 5yo+ model

[EEVblog]

This resulted in an 'incentive' for EVs that goes beyond the $10,450 in credits that we received as consumers

You can buy a brand new small ICE car with that US$10k 

[EEVblog]

the nissan leaf starts at 72k AUD in Brazil, because... reasons.   

 
I'll race out and buy the bargain $55k version here then!

[sleemanj]

I see  a surprising number of BMW i3 around Christchurch NZ, maybe they just stand out more but there really does seem to be quite a lot of them on the roads, it's especially interesting given NZ's vehicle fleet mostly being used Japanese imports.

Of course I expect the Nissan Leaf is by far the most numerous EV on our roads, shame it is so damn ugly.

[james_s]

I don't know why people fixate on Tesla, they're the high end. I know a bunch of people who have EVs, none of them are Teslas. There are several Nissan Leafs, a Chevy Spark, and a couple of Kia Souls, most of them were purchased as lease returns for <$10k at which point they're proving to be very economical.

I'd pick up a Leaf for $10k if I could but they are double that for a 5yo+ model

Apparently the situation is much more favorable out where I am, there are dozens of clean used EVs for <$10k.


https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/sss?query=nissan+leaf&excats=20-99-3-14-27-1-19-7&sort=rel&max_price=10000

https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/sss?query=chevy+spark&excats=20-99-3-14-27-1-19-7&sort=rel&max_price=10000

https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/sss?query=Fiat+500E&sort=rel&min_price=4000&max_price=10000

[Towger]

We are still waiting for you to fix your current electric car:
https://youtu.be/0EQetm_qWDg

[Kjetil]

Here in Norway the cheapest Tesla S (comparable to the video) is 61 696 AU$, with the cheapest leaf at 47 114 AU$.

Over the last year the manufacturers have released a lot of professional use cars and vans as well, which will be great for city users that rarely drive very far every day.

Since electric cars are so normal now, with approximately 50 % of new cars being electric, they are starting to have to pay for toll roads and ferries, which have previously been free. The levels are still significantly reduced though, so it's still worth while.

Distribution of different car types sold in the country this year:


(Ladbary hybrid = Plug-in hybrid, Bensin = Gasoline, Elektrisitet = Electrical)

Tesla are having major issues with delivery, support and servicing here, being a completely new company without an existing infrastructure, so everything isn't perfect in the Tesla camp, even if they sell a lot of cars.

[tocsa120ls]

German prices:
Full EV, at the moment only the Model3 is sold, that is a nice round €50k
Hybrid, now you have a selection
Yaris (Vitz?) 1.5 - €15k
Hyundai Ioniq - €19.999
KIA Niro - €23k
Corolla wagon 1.8 - €28k
Prius €28k
Outlander PHEV 2.4 - €32k



BTW I just decommissioned a 12yo IBM laptop battery. Left is old cell, right is new. Same size. Same capacity. The only improvement I see is that the newer one has faster charge/discharge. I discourage everybody to buy a full EV unless they only plan to use it in the big city and even then consider that at the moment we have zero, nil, nada recycleable parts in a lithium battery. So consider it very very un-green. Dead-end technology as far as I'm concerned.

[elmo]

Just look at the Netherlands for an example where EVs are quite common and the market has somewhat matured. The government is seriously putting the brakes on electric car subsidies (low tax tarifs) and sales have dropped to near zero levels for the more expensive models (like the Tesla Model S and Jaguar I-pace). Subsidies should create a momentum in a market but for electric cars they don't do it. Everywhere in the world the market for electric cars is artificially created / sustained.

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

In Norway the tax losses are in the order of 5,7 billion NOK, about 0,55% of the states income in 2017 because of EVs. Cars in total contribute with about 44 billions, or 4,27% of the national budget in comparison. The numbers are going to change a lot over the next few years, seeing that about 50% of all new car sales are EVs, meaning that when the total number of EVs start catching up with the total number of ICE cars there need to be a significant increase in taxes somewhere to make up the difference. The national budget is running a deficit of 259 billion NOK, witch they pump petroleum money into, to balance the budget. There is a limit for how much, and I don't see cars being that important in the bigger picture for them to start pumping a significant portion of the petroleum money in to the budget to keep EV owners happy in the long run.

[Psi]

Can always buy a ticket for the Chicago Chesed Fund Tesla Raffle for $100.
1 in 5555 chance to win a Tesla S, X, Y or 3 or 50k cash
AFAIK it's open to intl entries.

1 in 5555 is pretty good odds compared to buying $100 of lotto tickets.
https://www.ccfraffle.com/?utm_source=richrebuilds&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=tesla2019

Can buy 2 tickets for $175 if you use the code Rich Rebuilds.

[tszaboo]

The subsidy is not an evil thing.
This is what happens now with a tesla:
The company makes it for say, 50K. Then they apply import tax 10%. Then they add VAT, 10%, then they apply a Luxury car tax 33%. Then they make you pay some exra fees, like registration, license plate fee, this fee, that fee. Total taxation is about +61% in this case. It is your own greedy government that makes these cars expensive.
If they would subsidize it all they would do is remove some of the tax. You are not taking the money out of the pocket of Joe Average. Norway does this, and they dont "give money" to the people, they just dont take it away.

What is the most infuriating, when a government sets out a enviromental target: we are going to reduce carbon emissions by x% in 5 years. Are they really commited to this target? If they would be, they would just say: OK, guys, no tax for electric cars, and way less for plug in hybrid. And we increase tax on Diesel by 200%, cause NOx is also bad.

Oh, but then where does the money to the government come from? All vehicle related tax accounts for 6 BEUR. It is about 3,5% of the total budget. It is a drop in a budget. It is possible to compensate it, if you tax google amazon facebook etc... with the same rate as local companies.

[TheAmmoniacal]

I think it's inaccurate to equate tax exemptions with subsidies. Norway do not give money to electric car companies.

[nctnico]

What is the most infuriating, when a government sets out a enviromental target: we are going to reduce carbon emissions by x% in 5 years. Are they really commited to this target? If they would be, they would just say: OK, guys, no tax for electric cars, and way less for plug in hybrid. And we increase tax on Diesel by 200%, cause NOx is also bad.

The French tried to increase fuel prices which led to months of extremely violent protests. Increasing fuel prices hits the people who can least afford an EV the hardest. Besides the protests it is political suicide. In the Netherlands the people's support for EV subsidies is eroding quickly and increasing fuel prices even more is political suicide. What the Netherlands did do right IMHO is making cars which use a lot of fuel very expensive (for some cars the tax is 200% or more on top of the list price).

[nctnico]

blah blah...

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

blah blah....

2019 weight VW eGolf: 1567kg (https://www.vwmodels.ca/2019/egolf/specifications?lang=en_ca)
2019 weight VW GTI: 1389kg + 50l fuel = 1426kg (https://www.vwmodels.ca/2019/golf-gti/specifications?lang=en_ca)
less than 10% heavier.

Firstly the taxes are based on an empty vehicle. The difference in tax in the Netherlands for the cars you list is more than 20% and increase exponentially with weight. When compared by weight the road tax for a Tesla model S would be double of that of the regular VW Golf.

As for countering your argument that somehow tires are more expensive for an electric car vs an ICE one; it's just silly;

Read more careful next time. I was writing how Teslas are so horribly expensive to maintain and repair and I was pointing to other brands (like VW especially for you). Just google for 'tesla maintenance costs'. As james_s noted many people focus on Tesla only but there is a whole flurry of other electric car manufacturers out there. If I'm not mistaken Nissan (silently) sells more electric cars than Tesla.

[TheAmmoniacal]

Driveaway price for the base Model 3 in Norway: 377 020 NOK (= $61 700 AUD)
Driveaway price for the base Model 3 in Australia: $70 376 AUD

"Full-time earnings in Australia averaged $82 436 AUD" (https://www.livingin-australia.com/salaries-australia/)

Average annual wages in Norway is 547 200 NOK/year (= $89 550 AUD) (https://www.ssb.no/arbeid-og-lonn/artikler-og-publikasjoner/lonnsveksten-tar-seg-opp)

In Norway the base Model 3 is 70% of the average annual wages/salary.
In Australia it's 85%.

EDIT: Income inequality in Australia is higher (Gini coefficient of 34.7 vs 26.8 for Norway), so on average there are less Australians that could/can afford one.

[tom66]

And there is more bad news at the horizon in the Netherlands for EV owners. EVs are heavier and in the end will have to pay more road taxes compared to an ICE car because heavier cars do more damage to the road. How much is being researched currently. Currently EVs are exempt from road taxes but that situation isn't sustainable. The same goes for fuel taxes. EV owners may possibly be confronted by a road tax based on distance travelled to compensate for the lost taxes on fuel.

This just isn't true.  The Model S is heavy, but that's because it's basically a 5-series sized car (and all that steel and aluminium adds up).  My VW Golf GTE PHEV weighs within 50kg of a Nissan Leaf pure-EV; the difference is the PHEV is carrying an 8kWh battery, electric motor, 6 speed gearbox and 1.4L engine, whereas the Leaf is carrying only the motor and 30kWh battery pack. 

The Model S battery pack is about 600kg; it's not lightweight but then again neither is a gearbox, petrol engine, tank, fuel, exhaust, emissions system, etc.

IMHO a Tesla is a particulary bad choice when it comes to maintenance costs (and reliability as well) if you want to drive it until it just stops running. Even the model 3 is basically a high performance car and 18" or 20" tyres are way more expensive  (I'm seeing prices varying from 400 to 1200 euro for replacing 2 tyres on a Model S) to replace compared to 14" or 15" tyres on a standard steel rim. Ditto for the brakes and other parts which are subject to wear. Because Tesla is quite rare compared to other cars be prepared to have to rely on / pay Tesla for the parts instead of cheaper third party after market / OEM parts. If you still plan to buy an EV then look for the established brands like VW, Nissan, Toyota, etc. Chances are parts are exchangeable with ICE based cars so maintenance is likely way cheaper because there are more parts available.

Not sure about the Model S but the Model 3 (base spec, not performance) runs standard 225/40R18 tyres, the same as my GTE, which cost around £350-450 (~same in Euros) for a full set of Michelin Pilot Sport tyres, and much less if you're prepared to put dodgy Chinese rubber on them.   That's about normal for a standard car (heck, my old 1.8 litre Ford Focus used the same tyres).  But, if you are really concerned about the cost of the Model 3's tyres, you could purchase smaller rims and fit smaller tyres to it.  With the torque of the motor, you might find the traction control light flashing a lot more.

[nctnico]

You are writing the same.  I already wrote that a Tesla is a high performance car which is expensive to maintain. Dave's video is about affordable EVs and there are way more sensible choices than Tesla.

[sokoloff]

The cheapest way to own an electric car is probably related to the cheapest way to own an ICE car:  Keep it boring...  buy a popular, proven, and reliable mass market model from a major manufacturer; stay away from the first few years of a new model.

Electric cars have not been around long enough (and have not been popular enough) for this to be possible yet.

And buy a 3-6 year old used car for significant lifecycle savings as well.

Many EVs are available in that age range, though as a happy 2015 LEAF owner, if you want the cheapest motoring, you probably want a 10 year old Honda or Toyota ICE car.

[coppice]

Here in Norway the cheapest Tesla S (comparable to the video) is 61 696 AU$, with the cheapest leaf at 47 114 AU$.

I wonder how much each poor Norwegian tax payer has to subsidise a wealthier person's Tesla? If you buy a Tesla at those highly subsidised prices, can you immediately resell it across the borders in an EU country?

Over the last year the manufacturers have released a lot of professional use cars and vans as well, which will be great for city users that rarely drive very far every day.

There are quite a lot of electric delivery vans, which don't get a lot of attention. They make enormous sense. Throughout the 20th century various specialised delivery activities were served by electric vehicles, loaded with massive arrays of lead acid batteries. Now you find lots of Ford and other vans, which look like any ordinary diesel van of the same make, are electric powered, and doing things like parcel delivery. When the average journey is maybe 200 metres they are a big win.

[nctnico]

It wouldn't surprise me if the electric vans are only economically viable due to subsidies. Companies can get even bigger tax cuts on green investments. So when the tax breaks end the electric vans will likely dissapear again.

[tom66]

It wouldn't surprise me if the electric vans are only economically viable due to subsidies. Companies can get even bigger tax cuts on green investments. So when the tax breaks end the electric vans will likely dissapear again.

You say things like this but with no evidence at all to back up your PoV.

Electric vans make a huge deal of sense in busy city centres, a local delivery firm (DPD) has started using them for many of its local deliveries.  The hub and spoke model of delivery centres is actually ideal for this because most of the vans are doing less than 100 miles in a day. So they can fit easily one shift within a full charge.

In the UK, a small electric van costs 3-4p/mile in electric plus requires less maintenance, whereas a diesel van getting 25 mpg will cost almost 17p/mile in electric.  Over 100,000 miles of driving that's £14,000.  That's half the price of the vehicle, and puts a vehicle like a Nissan eNV200 at comparable price to its non-electric brother.

Now add up lower taxes, maintenance costs, brake pads etc (and time out of service due to all of these) and in areas like London an exemption from the congestion charge / toxicity charge and the economics start to become quite clear. 

I wonder, do you ever visit a city like London?  The air there is absolutely toxic, you can taste the pollution. It is a bit like humid air, but then you realise it's 10'C outside and 45% RH so it's not humidity. It makes my nasal congestion go into overdrive.  I am 100% in favour of banning any ICE vehicle from a city centre within 10 years, even if you don't accept the science of climate change and the lower CO2 emissions of an e-car, you must see with your own eyes the harm that the pollution from a hundred thousand cars driving in and out of a city centre every day does to the poor f**kers living there. (Myself, that's one reason I absolutely refuse to live in a city centre.)

I wonder how much each poor Norwegian tax payer has to subsidise a wealthier person's Tesla? If you buy a Tesla at those highly subsidised prices, can you immediately resell it across the borders in an EU country?

AFAIK it's a case of EVs being less expensive than petrol vehicles because new petrol vehicles are (rightly) taxed more. Also the Norwegian equivalent of benefit in kind for EVs is really low, so attractive for business users.

One benefit this subsidy seems to have is that older EVs/PHEVs are depreciating quite rapidly. For instance in the UK, you can buy a Nissan Leaf for under £8,000 if you look around a bit, and decent spec/mileage ones are less than £10,000. The Golf GTE PHEV that I drive is half the price it was new 3 years ago. 

The idea that EVs are proving unpopular once subsidies go away is a bit crap to be honest. There's been no slowdown in Model 3 sales despite the tax credit being only $3,700 now (half what it was a year ago).

[elmo]

I wonder how much each poor Norwegian tax payer has to subsidise a wealthier person's Tesla? If you buy a Tesla at those highly subsidised prices, can you immediately resell it across the borders in an EU country?

The tax loss due to the EV subsidizing in Norway in 2017 was 5,7 billion NOK. About 1083 NOK pr. capita. About double that for each tax payer.
I won't bother calculating what each sold Tesla is costing me, but it is no secret that Tesla is getting a good lump of it, being a fairly popular brand over the last years and being the most expensive, heavy and the most powerful (weight and power are car tax factors in Norway, and also VAT. Non of them payable for an EV).

The numbers aren't that bad all things considered. The government has wasted significantly more money on stupid ideas that went nowhere.

[nctnico]

It wouldn't surprise me if the electric vans are only economically viable due to subsidies. Companies can get even bigger tax cuts on green investments. So when the tax breaks end the electric vans will likely dissapear again.

You say things like this but with no evidence at all to back up your PoV.

Electric vans make a huge deal of sense in busy city centres, a local delivery firm (DPD) has started using them for many of its local deliveries.  The hub and spoke model of delivery centres is actually ideal for this because most of the vans are doing less than 100 miles in a day. So they can fit easily one shift within a full charge.

In the UK, a small electric van costs 3-4p/mile in electric plus requires less maintenance, whereas a diesel van getting 25 mpg will cost almost 17p/mile in electric.  Over 100,000 miles of driving that's £14,000.  That's half the price of the vehicle, and puts a vehicle like a Nissan eNV200 at comparable price to its non-electric brother.

Now add up lower taxes, maintenance costs, brake pads etc (and time out of service due to all of these) and in areas like London an exemption from the congestion charge / toxicity charge and the economics start to become quite clear. 

I wonder, do you ever visit a city like London?  The air there is absolutely toxic, you can taste the pollution.

I do visit cities like London. For sure reducing polution is an added benefit for the people living in London but do companies really care about that? You have to factor the higher upfront costs of electric vans as well because these need to be financed one way or another. The congestion charge and subsidies do create an artificial market. Another option would be to push for cleaner vehicles in general by only allowing euro 5 vehicles into the city center (like some German cities have done). The latter likely has a much bigger effect on improving air quality. As far as I can determine the current limit is euro 3 which is very bad. IIRC my old 1999 diesel was euro3.

The idea that EVs are proving unpopular once subsidies go away is a bit crap to be honest. There's been no slowdown in Model 3 sales despite the tax credit being only $3,700 now (half what it was a year ago).

The Netherlands shows different sales figures. Tax breaks on the Tesla Model S stopped and sales dropped to zero. In the years 2016 to 2018 an average of 3100 Tesla Model S where sold anually in the Netherlands. In 2019 120 have been sold so far. That is a drop of over 90%. Other higher end EVs like the Jaguar I-pace show the same trend.

[boffin]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?
here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Doesn't matter when the EV costs 10's of thousands more than an ICE car.

I think what you meant to say is "It doesn't matter to me where I live". 

Here in Western Canada, (even if you remove subsidies), an EV can easily pay for the price premium over the life of the car.

[james_s]

Of course I expect the Nissan Leaf is by far the most numerous EV on our roads, shame it is so damn ugly.

Frankly I have a hell of a time thinking of any modern car that I wouldn't describe as "so damn ugly", in fact I struggle to think of a car made in the last 10-15 years that I would even want if it was offered to me for free. I'd take a free EV regardless of what it looks like for purely utilitarian reasons but automotive design has completely missed the mark in so many ways for me, all you see now are these hideous crossovers. Fake SUVs that all look like the same car with a different enormous badge on them, I think they make the badges so big now because there is almost nothing else to identify the brand which is fine really because brand is virtually irrelevant now. I loathe touchscreens in place of tactile switches and knobs that can be operated without looking, gigantic wheels with rubber band tires that would be fine on a racetrack but give a harsh ride on actual roads and if you hit a pot hole that my current car would take in stride, you'll blow out the tire and bend a $1k rim in even most family sedans these days. The crossover seems to have completely replaced wagons, they are tall and ugly while having less interior space largely due to the swoopy roofs that are all the rage. Beltlines keep rising to the point that I look at cars now and think of the stereotypical old geezer with his pants pulled up to his armpits. Pillars a mile wide and microscopic back windows makes visibility dangerously poor so then we have bandaids over this ridiculous form over function design like backup cameras and other electronic aids that would be completely unnecessary if you could actually see out of the car. Then there are the "bumpers" they use now, what a joke, thin painted plastic parts that do f#$% all to protect the body panels in even a minor collision, the entire front and rear ends are sacrificial structures. I'm strongly of the opinion that any car should be able to survive a low speed bump with little to no damage at all, sacrificial crumple zones should only do their thing in a serious collision. Bumpers should be rugged, unpainted and shock mounted like they were up into the 90s. This is especially true if you're going to style something to look rugged as all those silly crossovers are, though they are not rugged at all.

[Connecteur]

Automobiles were once "too expensive" and before 1906, they were mostly owned by the wealthier members of society.
Ford made them affordable to the middle class, but even then, they weren't cheaper than a horse.  But other factors came into play. Horses left piles of dung lining the streets and needed to be fed constantly.
It's a parallel with today's electric cars.  They are "too expensive" relative to conventional cars, but other factors contribute.  The key to a sustainable future is to get the carbon cycle under control, and weaning ourselves off fossil fuels is the first step in that direction.

[timgiles]

Dave,

Well I have to say that using a Tesla as an example, if you live outside the States, especially in Europe - makes the figures look bad. But - in Sweden - my wife and I have a Kia Niro PHEV and use 90% electric (95% Electric only day to day, long trips down to Stockholm 600km - both). For us the figures we did before getting it 12 months ago have been right on the money. Doing the distance we do (around 4-600km / week), electricity costs charging at home is about 10% that of filling up with petrol to go the same distance - the money we save using electricity to drive almost pays for the car. If we had had the chance to get the fully electric Kia eNiro version - even though it was about 10% more expensive, it would still almost have paid for iself. In comparison, we had a A4 1.8T that was ok, not great when it came to fuel economy - before the Niro.

I am a complete convert on electric cars after doing the figures for my family and owning one. However - the price of a Tesla, which ever model, here if Sweden - I would never be able to justify the cost.

Hoping an eNiro is available in 2 years when we look to change our current car. Or a similar range, priced alternative. With increasing fuel prices that are far outpacing electricity costs - I am certain Sweden will soon be like Norway with majority of car sales being wither part or fully electric.

[Neilm]

I drive 25 k miles a year here in the UK. I ran the numbers including how much I spend on petrol and was surprised with the result.

For what I pay a month on my current car (Toyota hybrid I get about 60 mpg) including petrol I would save money on a Tesla model 3, even if I bought it on a 3 year contract. That includes the extra tax I would have to pay but doesn't include the fact that petrol in the UK has risen by about 5 % a year for the last 5 years. I usually by on a contract so I just look at the monthly payment

[james_s]

It's always been weird to me how often most people seem to replace cars. Back in 2000 I bought a $500 car and drove it daily for 17 years. I'd still be driving it today if I hadn't gotten rear ended by a tanker truck. If you take care of a car and fix problems as the occur it's not hard to keep it running well and looking good for a very long time. I hear people complaining that they don't want to spend more on repairs than a car is worth but that doesn't make sense because no matter what you do, you ultimately spend more on a car than it's worth because with few exceptions it is a depreciating asset. Drive a new car off the lot and you've just lost more than a very expensive repair job.

[tom66]

[...] For sure reducing polution is an added benefit for the people living in London but do companies really care about that? You have to factor the higher upfront costs of electric vans as well because these need to be financed one way or another. The congestion charge and subsidies do create an artificial market.

Of course they don't, but this is the thing about economics and negative externalities.  As a society we all pay the costs of air pollution in the form of greater healthcare costs, but the polluting companies don't.  That's what things like the T-Charge aim to do (£20/day for vehicles to drive into London city centre if they don't meet emissions requirements.)  They are deliberately distorting the market in favour of better options.

The free market is good but it has problems, and handling externalities is one of those.   I am strongly in favour of allowing capitalism to do its thing but pushing it in the right direction with taxes, subsidies and regulation.  In London, the Euro 5 restriction already applies.  I think it might be changing to Euro 6 soon but I've not followed up on the politics for a while.  But still it makes little difference. 100,000 cars travelling at low speed produce plenty of pollution even if they are more efficient or cleaner.

Also worth nothing that the EU will be charging European carmakers a heavy fine per kg(CO2e)/km over a set figure, determined partially by fleet size.  The fines begin in 2020 [1] and could amount to some 34 billion euros. So plenty of incentives there to lower CO2 emissions.  I welcome this, although I fear it is too little too late.

The Netherlands shows different sales figures. Tax breaks on the Tesla Model S stopped and sales dropped to zero. In the years 2016 to 2018 an average of 3100 Tesla Model S where sold anually in the Netherlands. In 2019 120 have been sold so far. That is a drop of over 90%. Other higher end EVs like the Jaguar I-pace show the same trend.

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

I do remember an article a while ago which suggested the typical Prius driver in San Fran found themselves in a Model S next year;  it wasn't that they could really justify the purchase but that they wanted to drive an electric car and the Model S was the first decent vehicle out there.  So wouldn't be surprised if many stretched their finances to the limit to afford what is almost a 100kEUR car, but now cannot justify that when much cheaper options are there.  Now the Model 3 is in vogue, it makes little sense to spend twice as much on an S, when all you want is a clean, efficient long range EV.

They obviously don't work for everyone, but if you're in the market for a reasonably premium car and are prepared to spend ~40,000 EUR on something, the Model 3 is pretty attractive.  I sat in a Polestar 2 recently, when it was on tour in London (unplanned, just happened to see it in a shopping centre.) I rather liked the cockpit a lot, and the overall vehicle design is more attractive to my eyes. Polestar 2 should be priced even more competitively than the Model 3.  Then there's the VW ID.3, which has an order book well into 2021 (at least 20,000 [3] but probably more by now) and the Kia e-Niro, Honda city EV, Peugeot e-208 & e-5008, Vauxhall e-Corsa & various Nissan EVs all due to launch soon ...

If there's a shortage of demand, manufacturers aren't feeling it. 

[1] https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/automakers-risk-massive-fines-co2-target-miss-analysts-say
[2] https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/05/tesla-model-3-jumps-to-1-in-the-netherlands-among-all-cars-cleantechnica-ev-sales-report/
[3] https://insideevs.com/news/353012/volkswagen-id3-reservations-exceed-20000/

[tszaboo]

The French tried to increase fuel prices which led to months of extremely violent protests. Increasing fuel prices hits the people who can least afford an EV the hardest. Besides the protests it is political suicide. In the Netherlands the people's support for EV subsidies is eroding quickly and increasing fuel prices even more is political suicide. What the Netherlands did do right IMHO is making cars which use a lot of fuel very expensive (for some cars the tax is 200% or more on top of the list price).

Global warming doesn't give a damn if you are rich or poor.
I didn't say increase fuel price, they should increase the price of that tractor fuel, that someone decided to put in a passenger car. If you are poor, you are not going to drive a diesel here, we both know why.  If they would increase the tax on diesel just by 20% above benzin, nobody would ever have a reason to buy a diesel car, so that would be solved.

Firstly the taxes are based on an empty vehicle. The difference in tax in the Netherlands for the cars you list is more than 20% and increase exponentially with weight. When compared by weight the road tax for a Tesla model S would be double of that of the regular VW Golf.

Yes, stupidest way to tax a car ever. I saw road taxation many different way.
- Horsepower output
- Purchase price
- engine displacement (1399 ccm engines)
- CO2 output per km (hold on a second, this would actually make sense, right?)
- but weight ??

So what do we end up with? A bunch of 20 year old Ford Ka-s driving around. Seriously, if I look around on the street it is such an eyesore that everyone is driving these shitboxes, clinging to them with the last breath, because buying a newer, more economic, safer, better looking more comfortable car is taxed just a little bit higher.

[David Hess]

Firstly the taxes are based on an empty vehicle. The difference in tax in the Netherlands for the cars you list is more than 20% and increase exponentially with weight. When compared by weight the road tax for a Tesla model S would be double of that of the regular VW Golf.

Yes, stupidest way to tax a car ever. I saw road taxation many different way.
- Horsepower output
- Purchase price
- engine displacement (1399 ccm engines)
- CO2 output per km (hold on a second, this would actually make sense, right?)
- but weight ??

In practice most taxes have nothing to do with external negatives and are just money grabs.  Energy use is close to proportional to damage to the environment and road but so is use of tires which is much easier to track.  The US is of course considering milage taxes so they can track where everybody drives.

- CO2 output per km (hold on a second, this would actually make sense, right?)

Total CO2 output would make sense but this is just a fuel tax which is one of the better ways.  Why would the efficiency matter in a practical way?

[nctnico]

It's always been weird to me how often most people seem to replace cars. Back in 2000 I bought a $500 car and drove it daily for 17 years. I'd still be driving it today if I hadn't gotten rear ended by a tanker truck. If you take care of a car and fix problems as the occur it's not hard to keep it running well and looking good for a very long time. I hear people complaining that they don't want to spend more on repairs than a car is worth but that doesn't make sense because no matter what you do, you ultimately spend more on a car than it's worth because with few exceptions it is a depreciating asset. Drive a new car off the lot and you've just lost more than a very expensive repair job.

Yes. I usually buy a 6 to 8 year old car with around 150k km on it. That costs between 4k and 5k euro plus 1k euro to get it into good shape. Then I drive it to >300k km. My current car from 2006 is over >300k but I decided to see if I can drive this one over 400k because it is still in pretty good condition (unlike my previous cars at that mileage). It costs about 1k euro again to replace the timing belt, shock absorbers and some other minor stuff. The car costs around 18 ct per km all-in to drive and it is not a small clunker.

[nctnico]

Also worth nothing that the EU will be charging European carmakers a heavy fine per kg(CO2e)/km over a set figure, determined partially by fleet size.  The fines begin in 2020 [1] and could amount to some 34 billion euros. So plenty of incentives there to lower CO2 emissions.  I welcome this, although I fear it is too little too late.

I also think this is a good incentive. Unfortunately manufacturers use EVs to achieve these goals while EVs aren't exactly zero CO2 emission since a lot of electricity still comes from fossil fuels. It would be better if there wheren't loop holes and new cars have to be way more efficient. As I wrote before in the Netherlands inefficient ICE cars are already hit with a hefty tax. More countries should do the same.

The Netherlands shows different sales figures. Tax breaks on the Tesla Model S stopped and sales dropped to zero. In the years 2016 to 2018 an average of 3100 Tesla Model S where sold anually in the Netherlands. In 2019 120 have been sold so far. That is a drop of over 90%. Other higher end EVs like the Jaguar I-pace show the same trend.

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

The Model 3 sales have indeed jumped up but that is only because it costs less then 50k euro. Next year the limit drops to 45k euro. AFAIK Tesla is even making short range Model 3s to keep the price below these kind of tax break limits.

[boffin]

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

You're not really trying to fight nctnico with facts are you?  That will never work when it comes to electric cars

[james_s]

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

You're not really trying to fight nctnico with facts are you?  That will never work when it comes to electric cars

That or solar roads, those two sacred topics are religion to him, facts be damned.

[tom66]

Also worth nothing that the EU will be charging European carmakers a heavy fine per kg(CO2e)/km over a set figure, determined partially by fleet size.  The fines begin in 2020 [1] and could amount to some 34 billion euros. So plenty of incentives there to lower CO2 emissions.  I welcome this, although I fear it is too little too late.

I also think this is a good incentive. Unfortunately manufacturers use EVs to achieve these goals while EVs aren't exactly zero CO2 emission since a lot of electricity still comes from fossil fuels. It would be better if there wheren't loop holes and new cars have to be way more efficient. As I wrote before in the Netherlands inefficient ICE cars are already hit with a hefty tax. More countries should do the same.

You're not wrong, but electric vehicles are currently the only *practical* way to make private vehicles CO2 neutral.  There is no where near enough land to produce biofuels for every petrol car that wants to do 16000km a year, and hydrogen is a waste of time for many previously stated reasons.

My ideal vehicle would probably be something like the original BMW i3 REx - electric for 120+ miles, petrol range extender for longer journeys but with 20 minute fast charge support (10-90%) so reaching the next fast charger is not too difficult.  It's a shame BMW discontinued the REx but it seems the EU was not too keen on it.

[nctnico]

That's interesting, I wonder if the market just shifted to Model 3 instead.  Because this data shows the Model 3 as selling 2,100 in March 2019 alone [2].  It has some 6% of the new sales market share.

You're not really trying to fight nctnico with facts are you?  That will never work when it comes to electric cars

That or solar roads, those two sacred topics are religion to him, facts be damned.

You are wrong on both accounts but never mind.

[nctnico]

Also worth nothing that the EU will be charging European carmakers a heavy fine per kg(CO2e)/km over a set figure, determined partially by fleet size.  The fines begin in 2020 [1] and could amount to some 34 billion euros. So plenty of incentives there to lower CO2 emissions.  I welcome this, although I fear it is too little too late.

I also think this is a good incentive. Unfortunately manufacturers use EVs to achieve these goals while EVs aren't exactly zero CO2 emission since a lot of electricity still comes from fossil fuels. It would be better if there wheren't loop holes and new cars have to be way more efficient. As I wrote before in the Netherlands inefficient ICE cars are already hit with a hefty tax. More countries should do the same.

You're not wrong, but electric vehicles are currently the only *practical* way to make private vehicles CO2 neutral.  There is no where near enough land to produce biofuels for every petrol car that wants to do 16000km a year, and hydrogen is a waste of time for many previously stated reasons.

It is too soon to draw this conclusion. There is so much develoment and progress in all these areas going on that even the huge companies have no idea what we will end up with. That is also the reason why it is not a good idea to buy an EV for long term (>5 years) use as a private individual if costs are a concern.

[mikeselectricstuff]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?
here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Doesn't matter when the EV costs 10's of thousands more than an ICE car.

With leasing it can still work out cheaper for people who do higher mileages, before you count lower maintainence costs and the convenience of not filling up ( assuming mostly home and/or workplace charging)
More so in areas where there are discounts on things like congestion charges, ferry crossings, parking etc.  These probably won't last forever, but probably long enough to  be worthwhile.

[mikeselectricstuff]

BTW I just decommissioned a 12yo IBM laptop battery. Left is old cell, right is new. Same size. Same capacity. The only improvement I see is that the newer one has faster charge/discharge. I discourage everybody to buy a full EV unless they only plan to use it in the big city and even then consider that at the moment we have zero, nil, nada recycleable parts in a lithium battery. So consider it very very un-green. Dead-end technology as far as I'm concerned.

EV batteries have proven to have good lifetimes - many well over 200K miles. Once the car has died, or capacity reduced too much, it can have a second life as renewables storage for home or grid. That alone could easily offset any end-of-life recycling issues.   
ISTR that some EV battery recycling trials started but had a problem of not enough batteries to recycle as they were lasting so long!

[nctnico]

BTW I just decommissioned a 12yo IBM laptop battery. Left is old cell, right is new. Same size. Same capacity. The only improvement I see is that the newer one has faster charge/discharge. I discourage everybody to buy a full EV unless they only plan to use it in the big city and even then consider that at the moment we have zero, nil, nada recycleable parts in a lithium battery. So consider it very very un-green. Dead-end technology as far as I'm concerned.

EV batteries have proven to have good lifetimes - many well over 200K miles.

In most cases yes but there are also horror stories about battery packs dying just outside the warranty period.

Once the car has died, or capacity reduced too much, it can have a second life as renewables storage for home or grid. That alone could easily offset any end-of-life recycling issues.   
ISTR that some EV battery recycling trials started but had a problem of not enough batteries to recycle as they were lasting so long!

I think the much bigger problem is that the rate of decay of a li-on battery goes down exponentially once the cell is below 80% of it's original capacity. And you'll also need to measure and sort the cells to create packs with cells which are worn identically. It may not make sense to re-use a cell because the remaining useful life is probably very short and the amount of effort is high.

[tom66]

It is too soon to draw this conclusion. There is so much develoment and progress in all these areas going on that even the huge companies have no idea what we will end up with. That is also the reason why it is not a good idea to buy an EV for long term (>5 years) use as a private individual if costs are a concern.

For the skeptics, it will always be "too soon".

EVs are clearly the future: sure, there may be improvements in the technology, but they are mature in many ways.  Concerns about charging stations are misguided.  Type2 CCS is a standard, and it has a long term vision for 350+ kW charging.  It is enshrined in law, the EU requires all new EVs to have CCS as standard (which is why the Model 3 has one and the Model S didn't, although it will soon, and the CCS port can be retrofitted.)   Fundamentally EVs charge on 230V AC for most home usage, high power DC charging is reserved for long trips.  Are you suggesting that we are likely to move away from 230V AC?  Because you might find your EV is the least of your problems then.

Biofuels will not be practical at scale for a simple reason, and that is because to meet carbon targets we need to be building out trees/forests on the land we would use for biofuels, not burning the alcohol or diesel that these crops can produce. The efficiency of photosynthesis is something like 2% so it is laughable to say that we could power the planet from biofuels at anywhere near the current scale we achieve. Solar PV charging EVs would be almost 15x more efficient in land area. Biogas/biodiesel will probably find some use in esoteric applications, e.g. mandated for site generators where grid connection is not viable, or perhaps in aviation.

Hydrogen FCEVs are unlikely to be practical because - well, just look at the technology.  To go 300 miles you need to use half your cargo area up to fit the tanks. You still need a lithium ion battery pack to have regen braking and to provide a power boost because the fuel cell stack can only output 80kW. So to get acceptable performance they add a 5kWh lithium ion battery which is more than half of what you get in a current generation PHEV. 

[Nuts and Proud]

There is a video by Electric Vehicle Man entitled "True Running Costs Of An Electric Car!"

He explains what it costs him in the UK.  Points raised include discounts from the list price when buying a new car.

https://youtu.be/XWg5tGyvq5U

[mikeselectricstuff]

This is another excellent vid on the economics from someone who knows battery chemistry inside out, showing that how EV can work out cheaper than a cheap or free ICE car  - start about 30 mins in.

[nctnico]

It is too soon to draw this conclusion. There is so much develoment and progress in all these areas going on that even the huge companies have no idea what we will end up with. That is also the reason why it is not a good idea to buy an EV for long term (>5 years) use as a private individual if costs are a concern.

For the skeptics, it will always be "too soon".

EVs are clearly the future: sure, there may be improvements in the technology, but they are mature in many ways.  Concerns about charging stations are misguided.  Type2 CCS is a standard, and it has a long term vision for 350+ kW charging.  It is enshrined in law, the EU requires all new EVs to have CCS as standard (which is why the Model 3 has one and the Model S didn't, although it will soon, and the CCS port can be retrofitted.)   Fundamentally EVs charge on 230V AC for most home usage, high power DC charging is reserved for long trips.  Are you suggesting that we are likely to move away from 230V AC?  Because you might find your EV is the least of your problems then.

Biofuels will not be practical at scale for a simple reason, and that is because to meet carbon targets we need to be building out trees/forests on the land we would use for biofuels, not burning the alcohol or diesel that these crops can produce. The efficiency of photosynthesis is something like 2% so it is laughable to say that we could power the planet from biofuels at anywhere near the current scale we achieve. Solar PV charging EVs would be almost 15x more efficient in land area. Biogas/biodiesel will probably find some use in esoteric applications, e.g. mandated for site generators where grid connection is not viable, or perhaps in aviation.

Hydrogen FCEVs are unlikely to be practical because - well, just look at the technology.  To go 300 miles you need to use half your cargo area up to fit the tanks. You still need a lithium ion battery pack to have regen braking and to provide a power boost because the fuel cell stack can only output 80kW. So to get acceptable performance they add a 5kWh lithium ion battery which is more than half of what you get in a current generation PHEV.

Sorry but you are completely wrong. For example: the 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need extra land. Just the parts of the plants we don't eat and there is plenty of such leftovers to make a large quantity of fuel and enough if ICE cars get more efficient (around 80 to 90 grams of CO2 per km). Also the calculated cost for hydrogen infrastructure is 4 times less compared to that needed for electric cars. You should really study the latest state of technology and you'll see the future hasn't been set in stone at all. As I wrote before: even the big companies don't know it so how can you be sure?

[tszaboo]

Hmm, as I can see, the VW Golf GTE is not sold in Australia. Nor the e-Golf. Nor the Passat GTE.

The Renault Zoe is, and it is cheap, compared to here, starting at 37000 AUD. Which is very expensive for a small town car of course.
And the i3 is 78000 AUD 
I think, given the specifics of the country, a plug-in would make more sense than an EV.

There are finally some very interesting cars in the plug-in market. The cheapest Outlander PHEV, 5 year old is sold at 8500 EUR or 14000 AUD. OK, this one has a lot of KM done, but this is the entry.

[nctnico]

This is another excellent vid on the economics from someone who knows battery chemistry inside out, showing that how EV can work out cheaper than a cheap or free ICE car  - start about 30 mins in.

He is leaving a lot of costs out. Who is going to pay for the EV charging infrastructure? Free charging isn't going to be around forever. Also his source to wheel comparison is off. Coal needs to be transported and mined as well. Not to mention CO2 from producing the battery pack. These kind of videos are not good sources of factual correct information. Better rely on peer reviewed scientific reports which use proper statistics and show error ranges on the numbers used.

[coppice]

The Renault Zoe is, and it is cheap, compared to here, starting at 37000 AUD. Which is very expensive for a small town car of course.

When you see a low price for a Zoe its without the battery (i.e. you have to lease the battery, with a monthly charge). It is quite an expensive car when you buy the whole car.

[EEVblog]

This is another excellent vid on the economics from someone who knows battery chemistry inside out, showing that how EV can work out cheaper than a cheap or free ICE car  - start about 30 mins in.

Not in Australia (have not watched the video, but I'm 100% confident), unless you are talking a fairly equivalent ICE car in terms of price, but then it's essentially luxury price car vs luxury price car.
For example, I can buy a practical ICE car for $20-$25k here (heck the cheapest new ICE car here is under $13k). But the cheapest fully electric car option here is around $55k, and that's for a LEAF which is the equivalent car to say a $25k Toyota Corolla in size and features etc.

[tom66]

Sorry but you are completely wrong. For example: the 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need extra land. Just the parts of the plants we don't eat and there is plenty of such leftovers to make a large quantity of fuel and enough if ICE cars get more efficient (around 80 to 90 grams of CO2 per km).

It will be interesting to follow biofuels, no doubt. However, current biofuel production still requires farmland to produce the product.  3rd generation biofuels are still in the R&D stage and investors like Exxon and most other research organisations have dropped algae biofuels.

I do hope algae biofuels succeed, if only for air travel to be long-term sustainable. Giving up aircraft because of CO2 would be a tragedy.

Also the calculated cost for hydrogen infrastructure is 4 times less compared to that needed for electric cars. You should really study the latest state of technology and you'll see the future hasn't been set in stone at all.

Really?

The vast majority of users will be able to charge at home - for the cost of a charge point or even a socket in the garage.  So, relatively little infrastructure required for journeys under ~200 miles. Where fast chargers are required, 50kW fast charging cabinets are now available for less than 15000 EUR each.  7kW AC fast chargers cost less than 400 EUR.

Hydrogen offers no at-home charging solution.  We have to build out "petrol stations" but offering hydrogen instead.  And the hydrogen stations are enormously expensive. About 5 million EUR for a two-car station that can service about 20 cars a day. And that station needs daily hydrogen deliveries on a truck, and costs about £10/kg which is equivalent to running a 25 mpg diesel car.

The big corps may not know exactly where the technology is going but there would need to be a huge number of breakthroughs to get hydrogen cars to the same level as EVs.  Most manufacturers of cars, with the exception of Toyota and Hyundai, have dropped their hydrogen FCEV funding in favour of battery technology and EVs. Spurred but none other than Tesla.

And with the infrastructure as it is, I highly doubt any EV will be obsolete in 10 years time, even if hydrogen cars somehow have this incredible breakthrough and become the dominant technology.  There will still be charging stations and AC mains available.

[Bud]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?

here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Did you include insurance into consideration?

[coppice]

It will be interesting to follow biofuels, no doubt. However, current biofuel production still requires farmland to produce the product.  3rd generation biofuels are still in the R&D stage and investors like Exxon and most other research organisations have dropped algae biofuels.

The picture for algae based fuels is really sad. For a time it seemed like they had enormous promise. They look pretty much dead in the water now. With people having abandoned hope, there are no resources being put into further work. Its unlikely any breakthroughs will occur unless they are a spinoff from some other biological activity.

[coppice]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?

here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Did you include insurance into consideration?

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

[nctnico]

The vast majority of users will be able to charge at home

Which vast majority? In The Netherlands 70% of the people can't charge from their own socket. In cities this rises to about 80% to 90%. These numbers come from a company which is building EV charging infrastructure. Also charging lots of EVs at home will require a massive upgrade of the electricity distribution network.

And 3rd generation bio-fuels are out of the R&D stage. Production in the US is around 400 to 500 million gallons per year. And this is from just a hand full of factories.

[SilverSolder]

The cheapest way to own an electric car is probably related to the cheapest way to own an ICE car:  Keep it boring...  buy a popular, proven, and reliable mass market model from a major manufacturer; stay away from the first few years of a new model.

Electric cars have not been around long enough (and have not been popular enough) for this to be possible yet.

And buy a 3-6 year old used car for significant lifecycle savings as well.

Many EVs are available in that age range, though as a happy 2015 LEAF owner, if you want the cheapest motoring, you probably want a 10 year old Honda or Toyota ICE car.

The Leaf is definitely at an attractive price point, especially used -  but the range is not very good, it seems to me.  Probably need a Honda generator in the trunk in case of emergencies!

[tszaboo]

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

And Teslas are PITA to repair. They use these fancy aluminium welding and other methods that a general purpose shop is not prepared to do. And replacement parts are super expensive. There is a guy online, he had to replace a model S door, and it was 6000 USD.

[coppice]

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

And Teslas are PITA to repair. They use these fancy aluminium welding and other methods that a general purpose shop is not prepared to do. And replacement parts are super expensive. There is a guy online, he had to replace a model S door, and it was 6000 USD.

There are numerous horror stories on YouTube about long delays and high costs for Tesla repairs, both crash repairs and breakdown repairs. In particular, people with minor bumps at the corners seem to end up with a crazy amount of the car being replaced. That's not really an electric car issue, though. Its a Tesla problem.

[tszaboo]

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

And Teslas are PITA to repair. They use these fancy aluminium welding and other methods that a general purpose shop is not prepared to do. And replacement parts are super expensive. There is a guy online, he had to replace a model S door, and it was 6000 USD.

There are numerous horror stories on YouTube about long delays and high costs for Tesla repairs, both crash repairs and breakdown repairs. In particular, people with minor bumps at the corners seem to end up with a crazy amount of the car being replaced. That's not really an electric car issue, though. Its a Tesla problem.

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

[boffin]

I'd be curious to see the operating cost comparisons in AU.  How much is Petrol vs electricity?
here in Metro Vancouver it's  C$1.41/litre and C$0.10/kWh for electricity.  It means the operating costs of my EV is 1/6th of that of an ICE car.

Did you include insurance into consideration?

You need insurance for any car. Some people see high insurance prices for Teslas and think that means EVs are expensive to insure. Actually, its mostly because the Teslas are so fast. Compare insuring of a model 3 with a high performance BMW and the insurance rates are not that different. The insurance rates for luxury cars are all tending to rise because of modern safety systems. They reduce the crash rate, but they make repairs very expensive.

The insurance rates on Teslas in the US did increase dramatically because of the difficulties in repairing them (mostly around availability of parts).  However, that has nothing to do with "EVs" and everything to do with a new manufacturer that doesn't have a handle on how to deal with the other parts of the auto business. (Rich Rebuilds series on buying a pre-owned Tesla should scare anyone away from buying a Tesla)

It is interesting to see how many doom and gloom people are nitpicking at pretty much anything they can think of; without any basis in reality

So far in this thread we've had

• EVs are heavier (10%), but road taxes will go WAAAY up (well in excess of the 10% percentage increase in weight)
• Insurance is more; it's not. It's inline with a similar ICE car
• Most people can't charge at home (debatable at best, when the only numbers thrown out come from a company wanting to install public charging)
• Tires are more expensive (guess what, they're expensive for an E63 AMG too)
• They depreciate faster (they don't, and used prices of Leafs show that)
• Teslas aren't selling in Europe (they are, in record numbers)

Yes, they have shorter range
Yes, they take ½-5hrs to charge (depending on how you feed them electrons)
Yes, they cost more to start with
However, if you drive under 200km/day; they can be VERY VERY VERY inexpensive (1/6th - 1/7th the operating costs before maintenance in my region)

If anyone here actually wants real-world evidence, there's another thread on EEVBlog called Electric Car Experiences (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/electric-car-experiences/) where you can ask real EV owners real questions.

[calin]

I am with Dave in the Corolla camp . I have a 2019 Corolla LE I got for ~ 13K USD. These Corolla-s just work...period. For the money there is no comparison - total cost of ownership is one of the best you can get. I got over 200K miles on it and the only thing I ever put in/on it was gas, oil and tires. I want to see a Tesla beat that cost / mile - when it does I buy one  .


Yeah ... driving a Corolla is neither fun or hip .. but is cheap !!

[thm_w]

The Leaf is definitely at an attractive price point, especially used -  but the range is not very good, it seems to me.  Probably need a Honda generator in the trunk in case of emergencies!

No the range is not good, but for driving around the city its fine, if you plug it in at night you will never have an emergency.
Here if you need long range you can rent a Prius for <$90/day which is reasonable if you only do a few long trips per year. Really depends on your lifestyle. Often people own a certain vehicle type that is really rarely used for that purpose (pickup truck, huge SUV, big camper van, whatever), and it would be cheaper to rent one when needed.

For Aus it would still work for commuting, IF the price wasn't so unobtainable and you had access to another vehicle:

Most Australians still rely on their cars for daily commuting. Aside from long travel distance, traffic congestion is another important factor in increasing commuting times. Encouraging alternative travel modes for commuting could potentially relieve congestion.

The HILDA Survey reveals that close to 28 per cent of workers live and work in the same postcode. About 55% of workers live within 10km of their place of work. This suggests there is a huge potential to promote active travel – cycling and walking – for daily commuting trips. Only for a minority (11 per cent) are the postcodes of the home and place of work 30 or more kilometres apart.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare


I did go on a 240km round trip and throw a 2kW generator in the back just in case, but it was unnecessary, as there was a fast charger about mid-way (Squamish, BC). It works though, and lets you drop the weight of the gas engine when its not needed.

[maginnovision]

Everyone I know requires their vehicle to have at least 240 miles range at about 80 miles per hour(common trips). I suppose you could drive slower but when traffic is moving it's scary not to move with it on our freeways. When I worked at BMW i3 leases were nearly free. Nobody leased one because nobody could make it to and from work(no chargers where employees parked and only a couple for customers/service). Once I can make my normal drives without requiring to stop and charge maybe I'll look into an EV. Until then they aren't worth the price premium. All the price breakdowns I see assume 0 issues ever but I've worked on electric cars and have friends who work for Tesla. Not everything is covered under warranty forever for any vehicle. Powertrain issues are significantly less common than body issues also.

For now if I bought any vehicle with some sort of electric powertrain it'd have to be a hybrid.

[boffin]

I am with Dave in the Corolla camp . I have a 2019 Corolla LE I got for ~ 13K USD. These Corolla-s just work...period. For the money there is no comparison - total cost of ownership is one of the best you can get. I got over 200K miles on it and the only thing I ever put in/on it was gas, oil and tires. I want to see a Tesla beat that cost / mile - when it does I buy one  .

Completely agree.  The Corolla, (and Honda Civic) are extremely well made and reliable vehicles.  If I were in the market for an ICE vehicle, they'd be on the list.

Although, I do wonder where you found a 2019 Corolla with 200k miles on it for $13k, or did you mean 2009 ?

[james_s]

If you need 240 miles of range at 80mph then an EV is not for you. EVs are for commuting, a huge percentage of people commute less than 50 miles a day round trip and 80mph is well above the legal speed limit in most US states. Heck around here you're lucky to average 40mph speed limits aside. For those people EVs work well and are very economical.

[maginnovision]

That's my point, for now EV's aren't even serviceable for everyone, even if costs were equal or lower. If I'm driving down the 210 at 65 MPH, It's going to be scary having cars fly by me the entire time. 80 won't even get you pulled over most of the time the cops just drive by people looking for speeders doing 90+.

[calin]

DOH .. yep 2009. 


Quote from: boffin on Today at 12:51:45 pm

>Quote from: calin on Today at 11:51:07 am

I am with Dave in the Corolla camp . I have a 2019 Corolla LE I got for ~ 13K USD. These Corolla-s just work...period. For the money there is no comparison - total cost of ownership is one of the best you can get. I got over 200K miles on it and the only thing I ever put in/on it was gas, oil and tires. I want to see a Tesla beat that cost / mile - when it does I buy one  .

Completely agree.  The Corolla, (and Honda Civic) are extremely well made and reliable vehicles.  If I were in the market for an ICE vehicle, they'd be on the list.

Although, I do wonder where you found a 2019 Corolla with 200k miles on it for $13k, or did you mean 2009 ?

[f4eru]

Wow, Dave, crazy.
Prius non plugin to model 3 is 3x in Australia ? That's really really crazy. What is this cost difference coming from ? is the vehicle tax so damn non-linear ?

In Austria (Not Australia), the Prius PHEV costs the same than the model 3, and the non plugin is probably like 1.4x

In france whee I live, it's like base prius is 30keuro, base model 3 is 40keuro, so 1,3x only. After 5 years, the model 3 is cheaper to own than a VW golf diesel or gas !

Now where you're wrong is that the cost of batteries is dropping 25% or so every year, and the incentives are in the 10% range, so incentives typically only boost EVs one year, depending on countries.

Now Dave, don't worry, cost parity with ICE will come in 3-4 years for the mid-range cars, and that's purchase price. TCO per km for 5-8 years are already lower in a lot of countries.

[f4eru]

For the skeptics, it will always be "too soon".

EVs are clearly the future: sure, there may be improvements in the technology, but they are mature in many ways

If you look at some countries (Norway, China, California...), then EVs are the present.
In many other countries, they are still unfortunately the future.
But time is coming in a couple of Years.

[Jr460]

Not sue if someone else stated this, but I kept seeing people talk abut Norway and and EV subsidies.   Others asked how much they pay in taxes to support that.....

I'm not from Norway, I have a few friends in Norway, last time I was there was 4 years ago.

Over drinks in in a Oslo bar with my friend and a bunch of locals, i forget the exact subject, bit it ended like this "... yea, we used to care about that, then we got oil, now we don't care."

Norway has massive off shore oil, they are selling it and the government gets a ton of tax revenues from it.   Think about that the next time you read about Norway and public programs or spending.   Not saying they are wrong, but you can not compare them with your country, not even other Scando ones.

[f4eru]

I think it compares.
In my country (France), 62% the pump price of gasoline is tax, while only 27% of it is the price is the cost of raw oil.
So my country potentially gets more tax on that liter of gas than Norway even if the base oil comes 100% from Norway.

And yes, it's financing progress using actual bad pollution as a leverage.
And yes, it means they'll kill their own "gold mine" by incentivising EVs.
But this is urgently necessary to transition to renewables.

[EEVblog]

For me the cost of running an ICE car isn't that much for the amount of use it gets. Assuming recharging is free from my solar (or office building), I'd save maybe $850 a year in petrol costs.
The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV. To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

[wraper]

To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

Not true. https://www.tesla.com/support/car-maintenance

[Skycrane]

Even if the price was closer to affordable for a Tesla, there seems to be (in Australia at least) big question marks over the availability of comprehensive insurance, and the cost of it.  And then even with insurance how easy it is to obtain reliable repairs? and how well someone will fair with the insurance company if they actually make a claim?  Vehicle insurers in Australia seem to have a bad reputation at the best of times when it comes to making a claim, slipping out of them anyway they can.  Insurance availability/cost for a Tesla never seems to get a mention, but if you shell out $100K+ on a vehicle, I'll bet you will want insurance!!

The other negative for me is fire risk.  All those battery cells seem to be at risk of spontaneous combustion... recent Tesla fires are a bit of a worry.  And does the fire risk increase with the age of the vehicle?  I suspect so.  btw, if I were getting a Tesla, I'd make sure my insurance policy (assuming I could get one) actually covers fire ... it wouldn't surprise me if insurance companies start slipping a small-print exemption clause into their Tesla policies excluding cover for "Tesla death by spontaneous combustion".  If that situation is covered, then perhaps that is one of the reasons for the extra large insurance premiums.

Cost aside, for now I'll stick to my trusty ICE vehicle, thanks.

[james_s]

You are aware aren't you, that gasoline powered cars catch fire all the time? I've personally witnessed 3 different cars fully engulfed on the side of the road and those are just the ones I've seen. All it takes is a small fuel leak where it can drip on a hot exhaust manifold.

There is absolutely no evidence that EVs are any more prone to fire than conventional cars. If you claim otherwise then I want to see some data to back it up.

[tom66]

For me the cost of running an ICE car isn't that much for the amount of use it gets. Assuming recharging is free from my solar (or office building), I'd save maybe $850 a year in petrol costs.
The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV. To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

Right now, this is the case because EVs are expensive in Australia.

In the UK I can buy an older Leaf for £7,000. It's ugly as sin, but the girlfriend loves the idea of a car like that to drive around in. And, the annual savings in petrol means the car is "paid off" in 3-4 years of driving, at the same time, we can feel less guilty driving into the busy city centre with it, and we get free parking, tolls, no "road tax", etc.

Personally I'd love a VW e-Up! or even a Renault Twizy for shorter trips; driving the GTE around to go to the shops to pick up milk seems ridiculous!

[f4eru]

Yep, that myth has been debunked also.
EVs catch fire 20x less than ICEs (percentually)

Service costs are not the same, those are typically 1/4 compared to ICE, so you can over the long run save probably 1500/year.
But the model3 price is still astonishing in AUS. What is the "luxury tax" tax rate ?

[Miyuki]

It is not just a price of battery even motors are astonishingly expensive
For example I want to convert one motorcycle to EV, but but electric motor with permanent magnets cost similar cost as motorcycle ICE
I wonder if prices of motors are just today high margin or is it real material cost
As today lithium battery prices goes very close to material prices

I would like to have electric car for commuting, but today it still have no sense, physics and market cannot be fooled, when is something more expensive, then it have more energy input and it is less environmental friendly

[nctnico]

There is absolutely no evidence that EVs are any more prone to fire than conventional cars. If you claim otherwise then I want to see some data to back it up.

The problem is not cars getting on fire in general but EVs with burning batteries are a magnitude squared harder to extuingish.

[nctnico]

To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

Not true. https://www.tesla.com/support/car-maintenance

And how about other brands? Generally speaking you'll need to adhere to the mandated service intervals in order to keep the warranty. BTW on my version of the Tesla website it says that having a Tesla serviced at a non-authorised garage may affect the warranty (which means no warranty if you don't bring it to Tesla for repairs).

Service costs are not the same, those are typically 1/4 compared to ICE, so you can over the long run save probably 1500/year.

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced? With 15k km/year I spend about 100 to 150 euro including the mandatory road safety inspection.

[f4eru]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced? With 15k km/year I spend about 100 to 150 euro including the mandatory road safety inspection.

Nope. 1500Euro  a Year is what I save combined in diesel+maintenance (25 000km/Y). And it's probably more saving, I calculated a pretty conservative figure.
15 000 saving over the 10 Years I plan to own the vehicle, hell Yeah, totally worth it !

150 Euros maintenance a year for an ICE car is really not realistic, even for 15000 km, and even doing everything and the timing belt yourself. That does not even pay two tyres, let alone the occasional failing starter, or leaky injector, replacing a damper pair, or rusty exhaust whatsoever.

An example with a realistic 1300$/Year on a basic car (Maintenance + repair):
https://www.edmunds.com/ford/focus/2015/cost-to-own/#style=200696414

[nctnico]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced? With 15k km/year I spend about 100 to 150 euro including the mandatory road safety inspection.

Nope. 1500Euro  a Year is what I save combined in diesel+maintenance (25 000km/Y)

150 Euros maintenance a year for a car is really not realistic, even for 15000 km, and even doing the timing belt yourself. That does not even pay two tyres, let alone the occasional failing starter, or leaky injector, whatsoever.

Ah, so an EV doesn't need tyres and brakes?
But I'm writing about the two Ford Focus cars we own (both on gas/petrol). It is just a yearly oil change and small stuff like a lamp or an air filter. For the rest they are practically maintenance free (one is at 200k km the other at 300k km). The timing belt interval change is 160k km so the costs per year are very low. At around 15k km per year the timing belt change is more like purchase price than annual price and goes into the write-off.

[f4eru]

Tyres change are pretty much the only maintenance, and yes, they remain.
Brakes don't need service, they are nearly never used.
over 80% of maintenance goes away, so in the ford focus example, you save 1000$ on maintenance, and 1200$ on fuels /year.

10 Year ownership -> 22000$ saving. Yep.

[nctnico]

You have a weird way of telling yourself you get rich.  I think you are letting yourself get ripped off by a car dealer if you pay 1500 euro per year for maintenance of a car.

[mikeselectricstuff]

The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV.

EV servicing costs less (or at least should do) as there are a lot fewer things  to do - no oil change, spark plugs, timing belts, air filters etc.  Also brake discs/pads last way longer as most braking is via regen.

[mikeselectricstuff]

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

PHEVs are a bit of a dead-end- a major advantage of EVs is that they are mechanically simple, a PHEV is the opposite.

Also Toyota should be shot for their "self-charging hybrid" bullshit which has done a lot of damage to public perception and information - people think a HEV is better than a PHEV because they don't need to plug it in 

[EEVblog]

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

PHEVs are a bit of a dead-end- a major advantage of EVs is that they are mechanically simple, a PHEV is the opposite.

Sure, but ICE cars like the Japanese ones are incredibly reliable. 5 year warranty minimum are standard, some 7 years now.

Also Toyota should be shot for their "self-charging hybrid" bullshit which has done a lot of damage to public perception and information - people think a HEV is better than a PHEV because they don't need to plug it in 

Yes, HEV's are just  silly, I can't believe they are making a comeback 

[EEVblog]

The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV.

EV servicing costs less (or at least should do) as there are a lot fewer things  to do - no oil change, spark plugs, timing belts, air filters etc.  Also brake discs/pads last way longer as most braking is via regen.

You don't know where dealers make their money do you 
My Toyota Corolla costs about $170 to service every 6 months or 10,000k
Occasionally higher for a major service interval.
A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k
https://www.drivezero.com.au/cars/tesla/tesla-maintenance-australia-details-and-pricing/

[f4eru]

I think you are letting yourself get ripped off by a car dealer if you pay 1500 euro per year for maintenance of a car.

Nope, that's realistic.
Sure. I had approx 400€ maintenance costs/Y for my old Diesel (and that is a real average figure including everything), because I did most myself.
Let it be done by a small shop, pay double
let it be done by a brand dealer, pay double again.
Buy a German car instead of a Japanese, double that amount again.

A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k

Nope. That inspection is highly optionnal, and nobody does that every year.

for realistic maintenance, here are the true costs :
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/12/tesla-model-3-maintenance-guide-costs-even-lower-than-i-thought/

[coppice]

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

PHEVs are a bit of a dead-end- a major advantage of EVs is that they are mechanically simple, a PHEV is the opposite.

Also Toyota should be shot for their "self-charging hybrid" bullshit which has done a lot of damage to public perception and information - people think a HEV is better than a PHEV because they don't need to plug it in 

You referenced a plug life video. In one of his other videos he compares the environmental effects of various cars, including non-plug in and plug in hybrids. He shows that the non-plug in kind can be better for the environment. The non-plug in hybrids typically have high efficiency Atkinson cycle engines, while the plug ins are mostly a conventional car with a motor added. I expect the plug in Prius is an exception here, as they added more battery capacity to a car with the Atkinson high efficiency framework from other Prius models.

[EEVblog]

A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k

Nope. That inspection is highly optionnal, and nobody does that every year.

So the Tesla warranty is not contingent upon regular servicing?

[f4eru]

So the Tesla warranty is not contingent upon regular servicing?

Bingo !

If I choose not to service my Tesla car, will this void my warranty?
Your New Vehicle Limited Warranty or Used Vehicle Limited Warranty will not be affected if recommended service is not performed.
However, coverage under your Extended Service Agreement may be affected if the recommended service is not performed. See the Tesla Extended Service Plan Terms and Conditions for further details.

I think the extended service agreement does not even exist for the model3, they did not even bother to try to rip you off.
At delivery, they just said : "call us if you have a problem, you don't need regular maintenance."

[tom66]

HEVs still have some benefits, but only a 10-20% improvement on regular petrol cars as the engine runs more efficiently, you have stop-start that reliably works (unlike the bloody awful stop-start system on most new cars that gives up after the 2nd set of lights, or if it is cold, or if it is hot, or if the battery is low, or if the headlights are on, or if...) and regen can recuperate a bit of energy here and there that would otherwise be wasted.  They still need to always be fueled by petrol though.

PHEVs have a significant benefit over this because not only do you have a hybrid drive train with proper stop-start and low speed maneuvering on the electric system (so no clutch losses), you can also run them on electricity only for short journeys. So my PHEV lets me drive mostly on electric. But as Mike mentions the disadvantage is that there is the mechanical complexity of an engine for 10% of use cases.  Hard to justify that.

I've said it before but I'd like to see an i3 REx again but with a ~36kWh battery and a 15~20kW on board generator.  I think that could be a decent compromise over putting 70kWh batteries in every car. We will probably see economy cars (the Corollas and the like) fitted with these systems that will allow the vehicle to go longer journeys. Perhaps the generator could be a readily-detachable unit that could be lifted from the boot floor to reduce weight and increase capacity, when not needed. Such a generator could also be independently serviced without taking the car out of action when not needed.

[sokoloff]

I think the advantages available of an integrated generator (more exhaust muffling, routing the exhaust reliably outside the trunk/cabin, better heat management, locating more fuel in a convenient location within the car) are likely to outweigh the benefit of easy end-user removability.

[f4eru]

Removable REx ? Seeing the powertrain complexity in an ICE, this will not happen.
Why not a removable battery half ? Would be much simpler, as a stop gap solution before good range gets really cheap, which is only a few years away anyway.

[coppice]

Removable REx ? Seeing the powertrain complexity in an ICE, this will not happen.
Why not a removable battery half ? Would be much simpler, as a stop gap solution before good range gets really cheap, which is only a few years away anyway.

As I understand it, the BMW type Rex is probably not that hard to disconnect from the rest of the car, as its a pure generator set. It just needs unplugging, and perhaps a fuel feed disconnected. However, even a small generator set is pretty heavy. That's the key reason its interesting to be able to take it out of the car (well, that and perhaps increasing storage space). Its not going to be a quick lift in - lift out operation for the consumer.

[EEVblog]

PHEVs have a significant benefit over this because not only do you have a hybrid drive train with proper stop-start and low speed maneuvering on the electric system (so no clutch losses), you can also run them on electricity only for short journeys. So my PHEV lets me drive mostly on electric. But as Mike mentions the disadvantage is that there is the mechanical complexity of an engine for 10% of use cases.  Hard to justify that.

No it's not when that 10% or even 1% can make or break your buying decision.
And like I said, modern ICE cars are ridiculously reliable considering their complexity, that's why they offer 5-7 year warranties with confidence.

[nctnico]

I think you are letting yourself get ripped off by a car dealer if you pay 1500 euro per year for maintenance of a car.

Nope, that's realistic.
Sure. I had approx 400€ maintenance costs/Y for my old Diesel (and that is a real average figure including everything), because I did most myself.

You clearly bought the wrong car then. My previous car was a diesel (from Mazda) as well and that just needed oil and a timing belt every 100k km. Made in Japan and Denso parts for the fuel system. But that was a car from 1999. More modern diesels are maintenance nightmares and are costly to keep running. That is why I bought a gas/petrol car instead.

Before I buy a car I don't go by brand but I make a list with cars which match the requirements and budget. Then I research every car for common problems and how much they cost to fix. Based on that I buy the car with the lowest TCO regardless the brand. That is how you get to figures like 100 to 150 euro per year. The biggest cost I have is the oil change at 20k km / 1 year intervals.

With my very first car I made the mistake to have it serviced at regular intervals. Looking back I wonder why I paid all that money; it didn't add anything to the reliability. Since then what is broken gets fixed and nothing else. You can't cuddle or polish reliability into a car.

[mikeselectricstuff]

A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k
https://www.drivezero.com.au/cars/tesla/tesla-maintenance-australia-details-and-pricing/

Tesla is not representative of "normal" EVs

[nctnico]

A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k
https://www.drivezero.com.au/cars/tesla/tesla-maintenance-australia-details-and-pricing/

Tesla is not representative of "normal" EVs

I agree with this. People will hate me for writing it but Tesla is the 'Apple of cars'.

[nctnico]

PHEVs have a significant benefit over this because not only do you have a hybrid drive train with proper stop-start and low speed maneuvering on the electric system (so no clutch losses), you can also run them on electricity only for short journeys. So my PHEV lets me drive mostly on electric. But as Mike mentions the disadvantage is that there is the mechanical complexity of an engine for 10% of use cases.  Hard to justify that.

No it's not when that 10% or even 1% can make or break your buying decision.

Correct. Often people buy cars for 1% of the use case. Think about towing a caravan or bringing lots of stuff. After owning a sedan I ran back to a station wagon because the sedan didn't have any space at all. But it is not like I drive around with the back of the station car filled to the brim. When it comes to a car you have to buy something which matches 99.9% of your use cases because buying a second or third one is just too expensive. That is why hybrids make so much sense; they keep fuel consumption low so their CO2 emissions are on par with CO2 output of an EV (from the average electricity mix you find in most parts of the world) but have none of the hassles of EVs when you want to make a long trip.

[coppice]

PHEVs have a significant benefit over this because not only do you have a hybrid drive train with proper stop-start and low speed maneuvering on the electric system (so no clutch losses), you can also run them on electricity only for short journeys. So my PHEV lets me drive mostly on electric. But as Mike mentions the disadvantage is that there is the mechanical complexity of an engine for 10% of use cases.  Hard to justify that.

No it's not when that 10% or even 1% can make or break your buying decision.

Correct. Often people buy cars for 1% of the use case. Think about towing a caravan or bringing lots of stuff. After owning a sedan I ran back to a station wagon because the sedan didn't have any space at all. But it is not like I drive around with the back of the station car filled to the brim. When it comes to a car you have to buy something which matches 99.9% of your use cases because buying a second or third one is just too expensive. That is why hybrids make so much sense; they keep fuel consumption low so their CO2 emissions are on par with CO2 output of an EV (from the average electricity mix you find in most parts of the world) but have none of the hassles of EVs when you want to make a long trip.

Outside the US consumers don't own trucks, because in the few cases where they need to move a lot of stuff they can easily rent a truck. However, people don't take the same attitude to the few cases where they need to make a special trip with people, whether its a long range issue or carrying 7 people. They want their car to do everything they ever do that doesn't involve cargo. The psychology of this is interesting.

[tom66]

Correct. Often people buy cars for 1% of the use case. Think about towing a caravan or bringing lots of stuff. After owning a sedan I ran back to a station wagon because the sedan didn't have any space at all. But it is not like I drive around with the back of the station car filled to the brim. When it comes to a car you have to buy something which matches 99.9% of your use cases because buying a second or third one is just too expensive. That is why hybrids make so much sense; they keep fuel consumption low so their CO2 emissions are on par with CO2 output of an EV (from the average electricity mix you find in most parts of the world) but have none of the hassles of EVs when you want to make a long trip.

Really?

Average hybrid - say Toyota Prius.  About 50 miles per gallon or 4.7L/100km on motorway cruise.
Burning 1L petrol produces 2.31kg of CO2.  So, 100km = 10.8kg CO2. (108gCO2/km)  Plus other CO2-equivalents in small volumes like NOx and particulate matter which are mostly negligible.

You have to account for the CO2 required to produce refined petrol from crude oil as well as the extraction, I would be interested in sources on this though. My back of the napkin maths based on [1], [2] indicate about 10% more emissions but this includes other petroleum products and doesn't include transportation or evaporative losses.

Average efficient EV - say VW e-Golf. Around 15kWh/100km. 
1kWh on UK electrical grid = ~240gCO2e.  So, 100km = 3.6kg CO2e.  (36gCO2e/km)

Now imagine you are sensible and charge at night, dominated by wind and nuclear in the UK.  CO2 emissions at night are around 40% lower than those figures above.

We didn't account for the additional petrol refinery costs and the EV still comes out about 3x better.

Worst case. 100% coal grid.  Emissions of ~750gCO2e/kWh.  This puts the EV at about 113gCO2e/km.  About 5% worse than the Prius in the worst case assumption.  (But, with no accounting for distribution or refining costs!)

[1] https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-11/documents/refineries_2013_112516.pdf
[2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32532

[tszaboo]

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

PHEVs are a bit of a dead-end- a major advantage of EVs is that they are mechanically simple, a PHEV is the opposite.

Also Toyota should be shot for their "self-charging hybrid" bullshit which has done a lot of damage to public perception and information - people think a HEV is better than a PHEV because they don't need to plug it in 

Toyota and Lexus is making that ad campaign because they dont have good PHEV cars. The Prius Prime is not a good PHEV. The range is very small, and they just hacked the HEV prius engine to have a little bit more power. The ICE starts with the slightest of acceleration or They have the technology, but they are not going to invest into the regular liquid Li-Ion manufacturing. Solid Li-Ion, changes everything.

I think a PHEV is a good compromise between range and cost. It is an acceptable technology for the upcoming few years. I commute about 15 km per day, and occasionally go a few hundred km.  I would have a charger at work, at home, plug it in every few days.

The regular HEV is a huge improvement over ICE. I have a 3rd gen Prius, it is an ugly car which is extremely reliable, and relaxing to drive. Fuel efficiency is great. And the Atkinson cycle engine is much more efficient than the Otto cycle. So far, that a Prius in Germany makes less pollution than a Tesla (coal power plants). On the other hand I am seriously considering replacing it to a:
BMW 330e
Hyundai Ioniq PHEV
Kia Optima PHEV
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (very very cheap here on the secondhand market)
Probably not the BMW i3, because the REX concept is stupid.

Notice something, there is no Toyota or Lexus on this list. With the plug-in, you can start the air conditioning 20 minutes before leaving, reduce fuel cost to fraction of it, and all you have to do is spend 30 seconds a day plugging in the car. If the Lexus IS or ES would have a plug in version, or even a Toyota Camry or a Corolla, I would go for one in a heartbeat. So yes, in 2019 it is difficult to some parts of the world to justify buying electric car, PHEV is a good compromise, and EVs will take over everything in the recent years.

[boffin]

For me the cost of running an ICE car isn't that much for the amount of use it gets. Assuming recharging is free from my solar (or office building), I'd save maybe $850 a year in petrol costs.
The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV. To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

Actually the service intervals are quite a bit longer for an EV, with basically zero replacement parts.  30,000km service interval is common, and the 1st and only replacement part for me is the cabin pollen air filter

[boffin]

Hey EEVBLOGgers, I think we need to get Dave into a Nissan Leaf (or equiv) for at least a longish term testdrive.  Would make some great videos.

All we really need to do is tweet/instagram/facebook nudge Nissan Australia into the right direction

https://www.facebook.com/nissanaustralia
https://twitter.com/Nissan_Aus
https://www.instagram.com/nissanaustralia

[boffin]

Outside the US consumers don't own trucks, because in the few cases where they need to move a lot of stuff they can easily rent a truck. However, people don't take the same attitude to the few cases where they need to make a special trip with people, whether its a long range issue or carrying 7 people. They want their car to do everything they ever do that doesn't involve cargo. The psychology of this is interesting.

I'm outside the US, and the Ford F150 is the most popular (sold) vehicle in the country.  But yes, people are stupid for the most part, overbuying what they need in the delusion that it's worthwhile for "when they need it".  Weirdly even small pickup trucks have gone by the wayside (although I believe Ford are bringing back the Ranger), but no longer can you buy a small 4cyl pickup from any of the Japanese manufacturers.

[f4eru]

Tesla is not representative of "normal" EVs

With a market share of about 50% in the US and more in some EU countries, Tesla is representative of "normal EVs", because it redefines the new normal with the more affordable model 3.

[boffin]

Tesla is not representative of "normal" EVs

With a market share of about 50% in the US and more in some EU countries, Tesla is representative of "normal EVs", because it redefines the new normal with the more affordable model 3.

No no and no.  Tesla as a company have no idea how to do anything except sell a new car, and that will be their downfall as the existing fleet ages.  Tesla are the Apple of the car world; creating a cult-like following, and producing impossible to fix, overpriced vehicles; with almost zero support for anything except new sales.  Check out the Rich Rebuilds series on trying to buy a 'certified pre-owned Tesla" from Tesla; and then tell me you'd still buy a vehicle from them.

As for affordable, the least expensive Model 3 is still C$20k more than a Leaf, eGolf or Ioniq.  There's supposedly a model 3 where the battery is hobbled to 25kWh under software control, that will be a mere 10k more than the competition. <sigh>

[f4eru]

Yeah. A leaf costs less. For that price it cannot do any long range trips, because it's thermally limited to 1 fast charging per day. The M3 has no long term thermal limit, and is a much better vehicle on all accounts.

Check out the Rich Rebuilds series on trying to buy a 'certified pre-owned Tesla" from Tesla; and then tell me you'd still buy a vehicle from them.

Yep. I watched most of Rich's videos before buying my M3.
Sure, their service sucks. It was much better in the past, and it will probably and hopefully settle with time, once they are back to a more manageable growth rate.
It's seriously bad now.
The thing is: you'll nearly never need service, and that is going to be the new normal for other brands of EVs in 2 years.
Renault, Nissan, and other EV makers still charge for regular "inspections" which are not necessary, out of convenience of keeping alive their obsolete service business model. At your cost.

[linux-works]

I work at an electric car company (not tesla) in the bay area.  there are SO many teslas here, its incredible.  every 20th car seems to be a model S or 3.

for me, it might be worth it to buy or lease a tesla.  many companies are now giving free or cheap e-charging at work; that can offset a lot of your cost.

my commute costs are over $250/mo in gasoline.  if I get free charging at work, that's $250/mo that I can put toward something else (like the car lease).

a model 3 lease seems to be about $450/mo for reasonable options, 3 years duration.

$450-$250 = $200/mo

there's a lot I don't love about the model s, but if you've ever driven one, you know how much accel they have.  its a lot of fun!

free charging at work can be a deal-maker.  in the bay area, its a current trend to install fast chargers at workplaces.

[mikeselectricstuff]

Removable REx ? Seeing the powertrain complexity in an ICE, this will not happen.
Why not a removable battery half ? Would be much simpler, as a stop gap solution before good range gets really cheap, which is only a few years away anyway.

EV batteries are too heavy for this to be practical

[f4eru]

Sure, exchanging a heavy REx or exchanging a heavy battery is a bad concept.
However Chinese maker NIO has this exact concept in series production, and it seems useful with currently 130 swap stations, and probably still outsells Tesla in CN
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/08/13/nios-red-hot-es8-is-already-outselling-tesla-in-china/#399ddfb32b8e

Also, it plans to sell to EU soon. If old school EU and US brands don't want to sell good affordable long range EVs, Chinese companies and Tesla will do.

[maginnovision]

Tesla doesn't sell any affordable car for the masses, long range or short.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passenger-cas-sales-and-leases-since-1990/

The average new car transaction price is something like 35K in the US but most people aren't buying new because they aren't affordable.

[james_s]

I'm outside the US, and the Ford F150 is the most popular (sold) vehicle in the country.  But yes, people are stupid for the most part, overbuying what they need in the delusion that it's worthwhile for "when they need it".  Weirdly even small pickup trucks have gone by the wayside (although I believe Ford are bringing back the Ranger), but no longer can you buy a small 4cyl pickup from any of the Japanese manufacturers.

He probably should have said "outside North America". I have not seen much difference between the vehicles on the road in Canada vs the USA, however I visited England several years ago and I noticed cars on average were much smaller there, I don't recall seeing any pickup trucks at all. Here in the USA on the other hand loads of people buy a gigantic truck because they "need" to tow a trailer once or twice a year and that's pretty silly IMO. I have a station wagon that meets 95% of my cargo hauling needs while being as economical and drivable as an ordinary car because it essentially is an ordinary car. On those occasions when it is not sufficient I borrow a truck.

[thm_w]

It is not just a price of battery even motors are astonishingly expensive
For example I want to convert one motorcycle to EV, but but electric motor with permanent magnets cost similar cost as motorcycle ICE
I wonder if prices of motors are just today high margin or is it real material cost
As today lithium battery prices goes very close to material prices

I would like to have electric car for commuting, but today it still have no sense, physics and market cannot be fooled, when is something more expensive, then it have more energy input and it is less environmental friendly

Retrofitting a car or motorbike with new electric parts hasn't made sense for many years now. The cost of new parts is just too high, especially in single quantity. You either need to be buying salvage or used parts (see rich rebuilds youtube channel, he bought a crashed electric motorcycle, but battery/motor/controller were working).

It still makes sense for electric bicycles though, a retrofit kit is not expensive compared to a new bike.

Correct. Often people buy cars for 1% of the use case. Think about towing a caravan or bringing lots of stuff. After owning a sedan I ran back to a station wagon because the sedan didn't have any space at all. But it is not like I drive around with the back of the station car filled to the brim. When it comes to a car you have to buy something which matches 99.9% of your use cases because buying a second or third one is just too expensive. That is why hybrids make so much sense; they keep fuel consumption low so their CO2 emissions are on par with CO2 output of an EV (from the average electricity mix you find in most parts of the world) but have none of the hassles of EVs when you want to make a long trip.

Yes I mentioned this. One reason why car shares should be encouraged in all large cities. If you need a pickup/van/etc then you rent it for a few hours, otherwise drive your (preferably small) electric car.

[nctnico]

That won't work. One of the use cases where you need space is going on a holiday. And guess what: most people do that at the same moment. You'll need a massive amount of extra cars for that at the same time which otherwise sit idle for the rest of the year. Needless to say this will be too expensive. Spending the extra money to support the 1% use case is usually worth it because the alternative (renting a car) is more expensive.

[EEVblog]

Hey EEVBLOGgers, I think we need to get Dave into a Nissan Leaf (or equiv) for at least a longish term testdrive.  Would make some great videos.
All we really need to do is tweet/instagram/facebook nudge Nissan Australia into the right direction
https://www.facebook.com/nissanaustralia
https://twitter.com/Nissan_Aus
https://www.instagram.com/nissanaustralia

If I could get one I'll drive it to the Electronx show in Melbourne

[EEVblog]

free charging at work can be a deal-maker.  in the bay area, its a current trend to install fast chargers at workplaces.

What happens when even 10% of the work force wants to charge every day?

[EEVblog]

Looks like there are 2nd hand LEAF's in Australia for under $20k
https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/wetherill-park/cars-vans-utes/my-2014-nissan-leaf-only-19364km-english-gps-12-bars-battery-capacity/1221722933
Still 5 years old though.
It's not out the question that I could trade my Corolla for one of those, it's currently worth about $12k on the private market (if I could find a buyer)
The LEAF is about the only choice in Oz BTW for an affordable EV.

BTW, it's looking like a battery storage solution at home might be happening, so an EV starts to make sense to utilise that.

[f4eru]

Then you install solar on the roof, and one standard 10A outlet per parking space. Cheap and good enough.
 No need to get fancier than that, due to power sharing, charging will be slow anyway.
Charging at work makes much sense, esp. in AUS with a lot of sun

[coppice]

free charging at work can be a deal-maker.  in the bay area, its a current trend to install fast chargers at workplaces.

What happens when even 10% of the work force wants to charge every day?

Right now there is a sprinkling of low power (up to 7kW) chargers in all sorts of places - company car parks, supermarkets, retail parks, hotels, restaurants, etc . I assume that as electric cars become more common, the range of cars will increase, and most of these chargers will become less relevant. I certainly can't imagine a time when a high percentage of the spaces in car parks have a charging point. Hotels are probably an exception. People travelling around the country would benefit greatly from, and be prepared to pay for, charging as they sleep each night.

[sokoloff]

Looks like there are 2nd hand LEAF's in Australia for under $20k
https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/wetherill-park/cars-vans-utes/my-2014-nissan-leaf-only-19364km-english-gps-12-bars-battery-capacity/1221722933
Still 5 years old though.
It's not out the question that I could trade my Corolla for one of those, it's currently worth about $12k on the private market (if I could find a buyer)
The LEAF is about the only choice in Oz BTW for an affordable EV.

I drive a LEAF and am generally happy with it, but my range has decreased about 35% from new in ~4.5 years. Contrast this with the liquid cooled batteries in the Smart electrics (not a directly comparable car, of course) which have degraded less than 4% for my parents, who live in a hotter climate and have driven more miles in a comparable time period. My LEAF has one slightly faulty module which isn't faulty enough for Nissan to warranty replace it, so I'm in a middle ground of hoping it gets a fair bit worse soon so they can replace it, or I may have to tackle the replacement myself with a used Ebay part (at which point I'll quite reasonably be tossing out any hope of a factory warranty on the pack). That one faulted cell is what is killing my range so badly. (There's an Android app called "Leaf Spy [Pro]" that can be used to investigate some of the internals of the LEAF battery; I'd recommend buying it and the BT ODB2 dongle and using it on a LEAF you're contemplating buying secondhand.)

Even with the issue, I'm a 7 or 8 out of 10 supporter of the LEAF; it really is a practical, fairly normal "just a car" and the maintenance expenses [aside from the yet unresolved battery issue above on which I've spent $0 so far] have been limited to a set of wiper blades, a tire plug, and a few fills of the washer reservoir in 4.5 years and ~18K miles. If the battery were routine wear (as others on the forums report maybe 2-3% per year decline), I'd be a 10 out of 10 on the car for sure!

[james_s]

That won't work. One of the use cases where you need space is going on a holiday. And guess what: most people do that at the same moment. You'll need a massive amount of extra cars for that at the same time which otherwise sit idle for the rest of the year. Needless to say this will be too expensive. Spending the extra money to support the 1% use case is usually worth it because the alternative (renting a car) is more expensive.

Maybe you should inform all the people out there who do manage to make this work that it in fact does not work?

[linux-works]

free charging at work can be a deal-maker.  in the bay area, its a current trend to install fast chargers at workplaces.

What happens when even 10% of the work force wants to charge every day?

I see all our chargers being in use, the full business day.  you queue up, the phone app (I guess you have to install something) tells you when you need to 'run out of your meeting' (lol) to move your car to the charger slot.  then, when your time is over (2 hours for tesla, I think; diff timings for other cars) you have to run out yet again and move your car back.  seems like a hassle but if it saves me waiting for the gas station and saves me money, I'm willing to try it.  the weather is usually good here, no snow and only rain in the winter, so running out to move your car twice a day isn't the wost I can imagine.

not every company has free charging at work, but more and more do and its being seen as a perk, now.

the electric grid isn't the problem right now; its installed charging stations; and we just ripped up the driveway and installed a few more, just a few weeks ago.  I would bet we'll continue to install more, as our employees convert over to electric more and more.

[tom66]

That won't work. One of the use cases where you need space is going on a holiday. And guess what: most people do that at the same moment. You'll need a massive amount of extra cars for that at the same time which otherwise sit idle for the rest of the year. Needless to say this will be too expensive. Spending the extra money to support the 1% use case is usually worth it because the alternative (renting a car) is more expensive.

The car rental agencies don't seem to have trouble keeping up with people that don't own cars, and just rent them when they need.
There are already car clubs in cities like London that enable that - in a well connected city like London the need for a car is infrequent so paying to have one rust outside is awfully expensive.

[EEVblog]

Seem that there are heaps of imported LEAF's, just this one dealer has dozens:
http://www.sydneycitytraders.com.au/vehicles/nissan-leaf-------

[tszaboo]

free charging at work can be a deal-maker.  in the bay area, its a current trend to install fast chargers at workplaces.

What happens when even 10% of the work force wants to charge every day?

They will make a deal with you. Right now they have to pay 0.19EUR/KM anyway for the commute, at least here. And pay taxes on top of that. If you charge your car at work, you can charge a little bit extra (daily "any other business") and charging would cost them less. Electricity is cheaper for companies than individuals. Governments reach their climate goals. It is a win-win-win scenario.
It will be just part of the employee benefits package.

[tom66]

free charging at work can be a deal-maker.  in the bay area, its a current trend to install fast chargers at workplaces.

What happens when even 10% of the work force wants to charge every day?

I see all our chargers being in use, the full business day.  you queue up, the phone app (I guess you have to install something) tells you when you need to 'run out of your meeting' (lol) to move your car to the charger slot.  then, when your time is over (2 hours for tesla, I think; diff timings for other cars) you have to run out yet again and move your car back.  seems like a hassle but if it saves me waiting for the gas station and saves me money, I'm willing to try it.  the weather is usually good here, no snow and only rain in the winter, so running out to move your car twice a day isn't the wost I can imagine.

not every company has free charging at work, but more and more do and its being seen as a perk, now.

the electric grid isn't the problem right now; its installed charging stations; and we just ripped up the driveway and installed a few more, just a few weeks ago.  I would bet we'll continue to install more, as our employees convert over to electric more and more.

In multi-storey garages in Norway for instance, it is very common for every parking space on several floors, or even all floors, to be fitted with 7kW AC charging. 
Thinking about the grid connection for a full garage is interesting - 1500 cars * 7kW = 10.5MW.  230V, ~16,000A per phase. (I guess at this point you would have 11kV direct to the car park and an on-site transformer.)

At work we have 4 charging spaces and only two users so my car occupies the space all day. But more employees are interested in EVs so this might change.  I get charged 18p/kWh so I don't fully charge my car here, as it's more expensive than home electricity.

Still, my commute works out around 4p/mile right now, about 1/4 of that of my petrol car before.

[mikeselectricstuff]

 Any large scale setup of AC chargers will.have load-sharing, and will be able to limit current at each charger dynamically as load changes, both.due to cars plugging in and out, and reaching end of charge. The charging protiocol makes this simple to implement-it can tell each car how much it can draw , I think the spec says the car must respond within 5 seconds.

[JPortici]

you have to lease the battery, with a monthly charge

and you also have a limit on how many km you can drive, per month or per year.

[SilverSolder]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced?

Just let the car get old enough...   a set of brakes all round can easily cost $1500 to get done on their own, especially if you need calipers as well...   Tires...   Exhaust systems...   Odds and sods...

So budgeting $1000 per year (give or take) to keep an old vehicle that is driven daily in tip top shape is not completely crazy at all.

[coppice]

Any large scale setup of AC chargers will.have load-sharing, and will be able to limit current at each charger dynamically as load changes, both.due to cars plugging in and out, and reaching end of charge. The charging protiocol makes this simple to implement-it can tell each car how much it can draw , I think the spec says the car must respond within 5 seconds.

They might as well save money, have less charging points, and get a higher throughput from each one. Once you are limited by the incoming power capacity all you are doing is sharing out the misery of waiting is slightly different ways.

[nctnico]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced?

Just let the car get old enough...   a set of brakes all round can easily cost $1500 to get done on their own, especially if you need calipers as well...   Tires...   Exhaust systems...   Odds and sods...

So budgeting $1000 per year (give or take) to keep an old vehicle that is driven daily in tip top shape is not completely crazy at all.

Maybe on a high performance or classic car but not on a bog standard car of which millions have been sold and parts are dirt cheap. With my Mazda I noticed parts where getting actually cheaper with increasing age. Probably because some companies where trying to get rid of their stock. But sure at some point a car is worn and no longer worth the cost from a financial point of view. But then you are talking about an age of >20 years. I get rid of a car long before it starts costing serious money to maintain.

[sokoloff]

Any large scale setup of AC chargers will.have load-sharing, and will be able to limit current at each charger dynamically as load changes, both.due to cars plugging in and out, and reaching end of charge. The charging protiocol makes this simple to implement-it can tell each car how much it can draw , I think the spec says the car must respond within 5 seconds.

They might as well save money, have less charging points, and get a higher throughput from each one. Once you are limited by the incoming power capacity all you are doing is sharing out the misery of waiting is slightly different ways.

For an office park situation, I disagree. I want to park my car in the morning and drive away in the evening charged. I don't want to go down and move it middle of the day (possibly twice) just so that the actual charging can be faster.

[sokoloff]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced?

Just let the car get old enough...   a set of brakes all round can easily cost $1500 to get done on their own, especially if you need calipers as well...   Tires...   Exhaust systems...   Odds and sods...

So budgeting $1000 per year (give or take) to keep an old vehicle that is driven daily in tip top shape is not completely crazy at all.

Maybe on a high performance or classic car but not on a bog standard car of which millions have been sold and parts are dirt cheap. With my Mazda I noticed parts where getting actually cheaper with increasing age. Probably because some companies where trying to get rid of their stock. But sure at some point a car is worn and no longer worth the cost from a financial point of view. But then you are talking about an age of >20 years. I get rid of a car long before it starts costing serious money to maintain.

If you take a 10 year old car to a dealership and ask for brakes all around, you're likely going to be into the better part of $1500 in an expensive labor part of the country. Now, whether that's sensible or not is perhaps another question. The parts are likely closer to $300 in the aftermarket and three hours of relatively easy and very straightforward labor in the driveway...

People who only consider one of the two extremes (dealership or DIY) can't comprehend the costs that the "other" side pays.

[james_s]

My partner's 2002 Prius needed a wheel bearing, dealer quoted her $750 and said they might discover the other side was also noisy after replacing the obviously bad one. The pathetic Haynes manual said the job requires special tools and is too difficult to DIY. I decided to try anyway and it was a piece of cake, needed a press but the whole job took less than 2 hours. Turned out it did need the other side so that time around took just over an hour. Paying the dealer would have been $1500 right there vs $250 and 3 hours of my time. Dunno what an indie shop would charge but those aren't cheap around here either.

[Fungus]

The problem is not cars getting on fire in general but EVs with burning batteries are a magnitude squared harder to extuingish.

The gasoline cars I've seen burning at the side of the road didn't look like anything I'd be able to extinguish with a typical car fire extinguisher and seemed like the car would be completely burned up long before the fire brigade could arrive, so... 

(I've seen three or four)

[nctnico]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced?

Just let the car get old enough...   a set of brakes all round can easily cost $1500 to get done on their own, especially if you need calipers as well...   Tires...   Exhaust systems...   Odds and sods...

So budgeting $1000 per year (give or take) to keep an old vehicle that is driven daily in tip top shape is not completely crazy at all.

Maybe on a high performance or classic car but not on a bog standard car of which millions have been sold and parts are dirt cheap. With my Mazda I noticed parts where getting actually cheaper with increasing age. Probably because some companies where trying to get rid of their stock. But sure at some point a car is worn and no longer worth the cost from a financial point of view. But then you are talking about an age of >20 years. I get rid of a car long before it starts costing serious money to maintain.

If you take a 10 year old car to a dealership and ask for brakes all around, you're likely going to be into the better part of $1500 in an expensive labor part of the country. Now, whether that's sensible or not is perhaps another question. The parts are likely closer to $300 in the aftermarket and three hours of relatively easy and very

People who only consider one of the two extremes (dealership or DIY) can't comprehend the costs that the "other" side pays.

Who said anything about considering one of the extremes? I just take my car to a universal garage. But ofcourse I already did the research before buying and bought a car on which the brakes just don't go bad.

[nctnico]

The problem is not cars getting on fire in general but EVs with burning batteries are a magnitude squared harder to extuingish.

The gasoline cars I've seen burning at the side of the road didn't look like anything I'd be able to extinguish with a typical car fire extinguisher and seemed like the car would be completely burned up long before the fire brigade could arrive, so... 

I'm talking about the fire brigade ofcourse. The fire brigade in the Netherlands says an EV needs to be submerged under water for 4 days until it can be declared safe. They have special portable containers with water for that. An ICE fire is put out in less than half an hour after which the car is safe to transport (probably with a drained fuel tank).

[coppice]

Any large scale setup of AC chargers will.have load-sharing, and will be able to limit current at each charger dynamically as load changes, both.due to cars plugging in and out, and reaching end of charge. The charging protiocol makes this simple to implement-it can tell each car how much it can draw , I think the spec says the car must respond within 5 seconds.

They might as well save money, have less charging points, and get a higher throughput from each one. Once you are limited by the incoming power capacity all you are doing is sharing out the misery of waiting is slightly different ways.

For an office park situation, I disagree. I want to park my car in the morning and drive away in the evening charged. I don't want to go down and move it middle of the day (possibly twice) just so that the actual charging can be faster.

I've never seen a company car park with fast chargers, so the power sharing issue doesn't arise there. If companies start equiping their sales forces and delivery people with electric vehicles they might well need fast chargers for those people, but they won't want the energy shared. They will only be installing fast chargers to get fast turnaround for selected people.

[SilverSolder]

[...] I already did the research before buying and bought a car on which the brakes just don't go bad.

What kind of car is that -  I want one!  :-)

[nctnico]

[...] I already did the research before buying and bought a car on which the brakes just don't go bad.

What kind of car is that -  I want one!  :-)

A simple Ford Focus (made in Germany though). My previous Mazda never had problems with the brakes either.

[bdunham7]

  I'm talking about the fire brigade ofcourse. The fire brigade in the Netherlands says an EV needs to be submerged under water for 4 days until it can be declared safe. They have special portable containers with water for that. An ICE fire is put out in less than half an hour after which the car is safe to transport (probably with a drained fuel tank).

An ICE car that burns for half an hour won't need the fuel tank to be drained.

So how did they come up with the 4-day submerge idea?  Is there research to support this?  Is this procedure accepted as standard anywhere else?  And does this apply to cars that have had fires or any accident damage?

Unless there's other support, using one off-the-wall regulatory requirement to support an assertion of risk or inflammability seems specious.  I only know of a very few cases of battery re-ignition after an accident or fire (both have happened) and it isn't clear to me that submerging the vehicles in water would be a good fix for this.  Perhaps Tesla sales are down in the Netherlands because everyone is afraid that your fire brigade will start seizing Teslas and putting them in the tank after every minor fender-bender!

[SilverSolder]

[...] I already did the research before buying and bought a car on which the brakes just don't go bad.

What kind of car is that -  I want one!  :-)

A simple Ford Focus (made in Germany though). My previous Mazda never had problems with the brakes either.

I probably keep my cars a lot longer than I should.  Both my Ford and Mazda are on their n:th set of discs, pads, and calipers.

If you live in an area with a lot of road salt, brake components lead a hard life...  I struggle to keep discs going for more than about 3-5 years.

[sokoloff]

I've never seen a company car park with fast chargers, so the power sharing issue doesn't arise there. If companies start equiping their sales forces and delivery people with electric vehicles they might well need fast chargers for those people, but they won't want the energy shared. They will only be installing fast chargers to get fast turnaround for selected people.

We have Chargepoint L2 chargers at work. 6.6kW (27.5A @ 240VAC single-phase). That's not what people consider "fast chargers" nowadays, but as adoption expands, a few score of them in a single lot may benefit from power management.

[David Hess]

I always do my own brakes and this provides a good opportunity to check for other things like worn wheel bearings and suspension issues before they become critical.

[tom66]

A 7.2kW charger (32A, 240V) is usually sufficient for a day's work - can fully charge a battery in that time.

Some vehicles have fast AC chargers on board.  The original Model S can accept 22kW 3ph if configured, I believe the newer one is limited to around 11kW.  This requires relatively little hardware at the charging station to support.

50kW fast DC chargers are available for relatively little money.  Tesla has installed a few private superchargers for taxi companies in the Netherlands. These are often power limited due to local grid limitations, but sufficient for shift changes.

I know that a local bus company was demoing their new Volvo electric bus a few months ago.  750kW overhead gantry charging.  Unfortunately, because they don't have the infrastructure available yet, it was running off a 1MVA diesel genset in the car park... hmm

[boffin]

I know that a local bus company was demoing their new Volvo electric bus a few months ago.  750kW overhead gantry charging.  Unfortunately, because they don't have the infrastructure available yet, it was running off a 1MVA diesel genset in the car park... hmm

Looking forward to our electric buses here. They just installed this at our local transit station, but the buses haven't arrived yet

[james_s]

In Seattle we've had electric busses that run off overhead wires for decades. Some are hybrid designs that run off the wires on routes that have those and from a conventional Diesel engine elsewhere.

[nctnico]

[...] I already did the research before buying and bought a car on which the brakes just don't go bad.

What kind of car is that -  I want one!  :-)

A simple Ford Focus (made in Germany though). My previous Mazda never had problems with the brakes either.

I probably keep my cars a lot longer than I should.  Both my Ford and Mazda are on their n:th set of discs, pads, and calipers.

If you live in an area with a lot of road salt, brake components lead a hard life...  I struggle to keep discs going for more than about 3-5 years.

They put tons of salt on the roads over here but so far I have replaced brake disks after 300k km. Then again I don't brake that much to begin with; I use engine braking a lot. I did need one new caliper on my '94 Toyota Corolla at >300k km but that car is long gone.

[nctnico]

I know that a local bus company was demoing their new Volvo electric bus a few months ago.  750kW overhead gantry charging.  Unfortunately, because they don't have the infrastructure available yet, it was running off a 1MVA diesel genset in the car park... hmm

Looking forward to our electric buses here. They just installed this at our local transit station, but the buses haven't arrived yet

They are already in service over here. According to my son the bus drivers and/or passengers had to get used to them. In the beginning they would pull up so fast that the passengers standing fell. Can't say they are more quiet though. The diesel ones are very quiet already so it is just a different sound.

[orin]

My partner's 2002 Prius needed a wheel bearing, dealer quoted her $750 and said they might discover the other side was also noisy after replacing the obviously bad one. The pathetic Haynes manual said the job requires special tools and is too difficult to DIY. I decided to try anyway and it was a piece of cake, needed a press but the whole job took less than 2 hours. Turned out it did need the other side so that time around took just over an hour. Paying the dealer would have been $1500 right there vs $250 and 3 hours of my time. Dunno what an indie shop would charge but those aren't cheap around here either.

Nothing unusual about that for any car.  Whatever tool you buy probably pays for itself with one use.  I've done enough VW/Audi front wheel bearings myself.  I had the Schley tool (I wonder where it went to...), but I don't see it being available any more.  However, Harbor Freight have a similar tool: https://www.harborfreight.com/front-wheel-bearing-adapters-63728.html  Grease the threads well before using it and it should do fine if it has the appropriate adapters.

I occasionally had trouble getting the old bearing race off the hub - helps to have a friend with press and a bearing separator in that case... or a new hub.

Edit: Even with a hydraulic press, you need the appropriate cups and plates to press out the bearing/press the new one in - tools like the Schley or HF one let you do it with the strut still on the car - no need to unbolt/disconnect anything that affects the alignment.

[mikeselectricstuff]

50kW fast DC chargers are available for relatively little money.

Looking at Alibaba as a guide to the lowest end ,  you're looking at $5-10K, plus installation. 

[tom66]

50kW fast DC chargers are available for relatively little money.

Looking at Alibaba as a guide to the lowest end ,  you're looking at $5-10K, plus installation.

Yup. Which, when you think about it, is pretty small change.  Every supermarket/restaurant/etc car park should have a number of 50kW CCS spaces as standard.  And if you spend more than £X at the establishment, they can give you free or discounted charging.   I could see this really taking off, but it needs more people to use EVs, bit of chicken and egg.

[f4eru]

Why fast charging ?
For the price of one single DC charger, a supermarket can install 10 AC chargers. That's obviously a better solution, plus they don't want you to stay only 20 min.

[nctnico]

Why fast charging ?
For the price of one single DC charger, a supermarket can install 10 AC chargers. That's obviously a better solution, plus they don't want you to stay only 20 min.

That only works if you go to the supermarket at all (using a car) or stay longer than 20 minutes. Grocery delivery is a booming business over here.

[coppice]

Why fast charging ?
For the price of one single DC charger, a supermarket can install 10 AC chargers. That's obviously a better solution, plus they don't want you to stay only 20 min.

That only works if you go to the supermarket at all (using a car) or stay longer than 20 minutes. Grocery delivery is a booming business over here.

There is a lot of home delivery in the UK, too, but it looks like it may have reached equilibrium. The people I've talked to who regularly use home delivery are people without a car - e.g. students really like home delivery.  If we were shopping only for pre-packaged food I'd probably use home delivery more. However, ordering fruit, veg and meat on line is a crap shoot. I was to pick the best of what's on display.

[JPortici]

How the hell do you spend 1500/year on a car to have it serviced?

Just let the car get old enough...   a set of brakes all round can easily cost $1500 to get done on their own, especially if you need calipers as well...   Tires...   Exhaust systems...   Odds and sods...

So budgeting $1000 per year (give or take) to keep an old vehicle that is driven daily in tip top shape is not completely crazy at all.

Maybe on a high performance or classic car but not on a bog standard car of which millions have been sold and parts are dirt cheap. With my Mazda I noticed parts where getting actually cheaper with increasing age. Probably because some companies where trying to get rid of their stock. But sure at some point a car is worn and no longer worth the cost from a financial point of view. But then you are talking about an age of >20 years. I get rid of a car long before it starts costing serious money to maintain.

aha, the final year i had my punto i spent at least 1200 euros in manteinance
for starters, brakes and tires set me back about 650euros
- 250 for a new set of breaks.. almost every 1.5years, because i run, i do above average mileage for this kind of car, mostly on mountains)
- 400 for a new set of good tires, should have lasted me about three to four years
then
- 150 for the usual manteinance
then
- 100 for the unexpected pt1, the clucth cable broke in an intersection. Lucily, 2nd gear was in.
- 150 for the unexpected pt2, for a new windshield motor+gears
then
- 150 for the unexpected pt3, for a new steering weel contact plate, luckily the airbag light came up and the honk wasn't working anymore so i caught it on time, or it could have ended very badly (both my father and a friend's father in the company's croma had the steering wheel stop working on the highway. Accidents, but no consequences at least. Two other friends on regular roads couldn't turn anymore. Basically at some point the servo doesn't work anymore because some contacts are corroded and you don't have enough time to react)

and i NEVER use AC or i would have had to recharge the freon tank (another 100 or so)

And the irony in that: I was really pissed off, but hey i don't really want to buy a new car and at only 220k km i can go at least another 100k if i do regular manteinance as i was doing.. the next big expense would have been the clutch the following year and the dirstribution chain the year after, then i'd been okay for the next three years at least but a few weeks after i got everything in order i had an accident by myself due to icy road so i was looking to another 1.5k or so, car wasn't worth it and i really needed something bigger so i pulled the trigger

[SilverSolder]

aha, the final year i had my punto i spent at least 1200 euros in manteinance

Yes, that's another issue with older cars:  the standard deviation of the maintenance budget can be rather large, so some years can be really terrible while others are very cheap.

To stay somewhat on topic:  Many maintenance expenses will be similar on electric as ICE cars.  -  You lose the exhaust system and oil changes as recurring expenses.   That said, exhaust systems tend to last a long time these days,  I just changed the original exhaust on a car that had just hit 200,000 miles - not bad!  -  so over the life of a car, exhaust replacements are probably not something to worry too much about.

[boffin]

In Seattle we've had electric busses that run off overhead wires for decades. Some are hybrid designs that run off the wires on routes that have those and from a conventional Diesel engine elsewhere.

Likewise, we have electric trolley buses closer to the centre of the city, but they stop at the Vancouver city-limits.  Everything past that is diesel of one sort or another; although that includes a fair number of experimental non pure-Diesel such as CNG, Diesel hybrid, fuel-cell hybrid, etc.  The pure EV bus is the latest in that group of experiments, and I'm just lucky I happen to use that route occasionally.  Although the route it's going to operate on is mostly flat, I would have thought the gains would have been better on a hilly route.

Oh, and and to head off all the "but you have to generate the electricity" comments (which inevitably will occur, because there are luddites), more than 90% of our electricity is hydro-electric to the extent that the electricity utility is called BCHydro

[boffin]

  I just changed the original exhaust on a car that had just hit 200,000 miles - not bad!  -  so over the life of a car, exhaust replacements are probably not something to worry too much about.

it depends a lot on how far you drive your car at a time.  Short trips are killer on exhaust systems, as it doesn't have enough chance to really get up to temperature and burn off the water.  I used to have a 3km commute, and I would go through a muffler (lifetime warranty) every year.

[SilverSolder]

A short commute is probably the ideal use case for an electric car at the present time.

[Neilm]

A short commute is probably the ideal use case for an electric car at the present time.

Depends where you are. I commute 100 miles a day. Petrol costs about £1.30 per liter or £4.55 per gallon (UK) that means £7.59 per day to get to work. With electriciy as cheap as 5p per kWhr on cheap rate an efficiancy of 3 miles /kWhr reduces the daily commute cost to £1.68 saving £5.91 a DAY.

An electric car that can meet that will save me almost £1,400 per year on fuel.

[lpickup]

Jumping in pretty late to the conversation here.

I think Dave made his point about EVs being affordable (or really, NOT) in Australia, so they don't work for him.  This is understandable.  Every area is going to have a different perspective on this based on available subsidies, tax credits, exchange rates, availability of certain EVs, infrastructure support, etc.  I think it's fair to say that in August 2019, they work well in some areas, and not so much in others.

But we are heading in a direction where EVs are getting more affordable and infrastructure is improving.  if EVs are not currently working in your area, they will be soon.

But let me disagree with two points Dave raised in the video.  Point 1 is that is when it comes to battery cost improvements.  Dave stated a single digit percent annual improvement in battery tech, if that.

Maybe the tech is not improving much, and maybe we can't count on any new technologies suddenly emerging on the scene, but the cell costs of plain old vanilla Li-ion cells have been pretty consistently falling at a rate of 19% per year, simply due to economies of scale.  No new tech required.  And 19% per year has enabled costs to fall an order of magnitude, from $1000/kWh to $100/kWh since the Nissan LEAF and Chevy Volt were released in late 2010.

Now since then, most of those cost savings has manifested itself in carmakers just adding more battery to their "expensive" EVs to give them more range and allow for faster charging, while keeping the price of the vehicle roughly the same.  But as we get to 280-300 miles of range, it starts to make little or no sense to just keep adding battery.  This is going to be the point where we finally see the price of EVs start to fall and EVs start to compete in the more affordable vehicle segments.  Give it another 4 years and we are going to truly see affordable EVs.  It seems like the legacy automakers are resisting this, but if they won't do it, there are plenty of Chinese companies that will.

And this leads me to my other objection, and that is "charge times", or at least charge times on trips.  The story Dave quoted mentioned you'd have 2 hours to ponder the cost of EVs while waiting for them to charge.  And they may really have needed to wait at those charging stations for the full hour as they were only getting a trickle of charge as the battery approached full.  But with the right car, you are almost never charging it to a high SOC...you are only keeping it plugged in at low SOC to maximize charging speed.

Okay, well first let me say that for long trips, I believe the sweet spot is about 280 miles of range, and 150kW charging speed.  These 2 metrics kind of go hand in hand, since bigger batteries will generally support faster charging.  If you are going to take arbitrarily long road trips, this is where you need to be at at a minimum.  Maybe you never go farther than 300 or so miles, then fine, a 200 mile Nissan LEAF might work well.  But if you need to go farther, then that is the minimum spec most people will need.  You also need adequate fast charging infrastructure along the routes you travel.  Yes, it's not everywhere yet.  But if it's not in your area, it's coming.

With this, you won't be "waiting for the car to charge".  The car will likely be waiting for you.

I recently took two long distance road trips.  One 1914 miles, with a return leg of 806 miles done in one day.  I only had to stop twice.  The first stop (after 278 miles, 4 hours and 28 minutes), was 46 minutes, while I ate lunch.  I didn't actually need to stop for that long, but the restaurant I went to had a broken men's room and a broken soda fountain, so I went to an adjacent restaurant after lunch to use the bathroom and get a drink.  I had gotten a warning from my car that charging was almost complete and that I would need to move my car to avoid idle fees...I was probably only getting about 40kW at that point, hardly even worth keeping it plugged in, but that's how long it took me to eat.  The next stop, after another 4 hours in the car (268 miles), was for 42 minutes while I had dinner and checked my phone.  Admittedly, this was a bit soon after my late lunch to have dinner, but it looked like I could actually make this trip with 2 stops, so I decided to try.  I made it home after another 4 hours and 18 minutes of driving (260 miles).  13 hours of total driving, with 88 minutes of charge time.  When my wife is with me, we usually stop for a total of 2 hours and 15 minutes altogether.  The car is not the limiting factor.

I just returned from a 1331 mile trip, the return leg done in one day was 569 miles.  This time my wife was with me.  We had two charging stops:  27 minutes and 14 minutes.  Total driving time was a hair under 9 hours.

I know that there are some of you who will swear that they stop for only 10 minutes every 400 miles when on a trip.  Great.  Most poeple don't...they stop every couple of hours to get out and use the restroom or grab something to eat and drink.  Compared to your Cannonball Run, bladder busting travel pattern, I spent a whole extra 20-30 minutes out of 9 hours on this trip.  And now I don't have to waste my time week after week taking a special trip to a gas station to fill up my gas car.  Seems like a pretty reasonable tradeoff to me.

[mikeselectricstuff]

A short commute is probably the ideal use case for an electric car at the present time.

Depends where you are. I commute 100 miles a day. Petrol costs about £1.30 per liter or £4.55 per gallon (UK) that means £7.59 per day to get to work. With electriciy as cheap as 5p per kWhr on cheap rate an efficiancy of 3 miles /kWhr reduces the daily commute cost to £1.68 saving £5.91 a DAY.

An electric car that can meet that will save me almost £1,400 per year on fuel.

3 miles/kwh is pretty poor. My Kona will do 4.4 at motorway speeds, up to 5 with careful,slower driving. It's really hard to get below 4

[Fungus]

A short commute is probably the ideal use case for an electric car at the present time.

Depends where you are. I commute 100 miles a day. Petrol costs about £1.30 per liter or £4.55 per gallon (UK) that means £7.59 per day to get to work. With electriciy as cheap as 5p per kWhr on cheap rate an efficiancy of 3 miles /kWhr reduces the daily commute cost to £1.68 saving £5.91 a DAY.

An electric car that can meet that will save me almost £1,400 per year on fuel.

It shouldn't be difficult to find an electric car that can do 100 miles. The most basic Nissan leaf will do 150.

[nctnico]

In which conditions? In winter conditions and driving on the highway the range of an EV is way less than it says on the sticker. Add an 'acceptable' loss of 20% to 30% of battery capacity to that and you'll know that you need way more range to keep an EV useful in every circumstance. Basically you'll need an EV with at least twice the distance of your daily commute on the sticker to be sure it will serve your purpose. There will be a day you can't charge it at home or at the office.

[thm_w]

It shouldn't be difficult to find an electric car that can do 100 miles. The most basic Nissan leaf will do 150.

New car yeah.
The older dirt cheap leafs are about 80 miles. Lower of course if battery is degraded (avoid those ones unless its crazy cheap).

In which conditions? In winter conditions and driving on the highway the range of an EV is way less than it says on the sticker. Add an 'acceptable' loss of 20% to 30% of battery capacity to that and you'll know that you need way more range to keep an EV useful in every circumstance. Basically you'll need an EV with at least twice the distance of your daily commute on the sticker to be sure it will serve your purpose. There will be a day you can't charge it at home or at the office.

Yeah, sure, twice distance of commute plus another 50% or so. Which based on the average commute even the oldest leaf with a degraded battery is fine for 60%+ of people. In Sydney/Vancouver at least (stats mentioned above) you'd need ~25-45km range which is nothing.

[james_s]

If I wasn't able to take the bus, I'd seriously consider picking up an older Leaf as a commuter. My commute is 22 miles each way and I've got 240V in my garage and a driveway I can park in. My partner has a Prius we tend to use for longer trips anyway. 60 mile range with overnight charging at home is more than enough. I wouldn't even need to charge anywhere else.

[nctnico]

In which conditions? In winter conditions and driving on the highway the range of an EV is way less than it says on the sticker. Add an 'acceptable' loss of 20% to 30% of battery capacity to that and you'll know that you need way more range to keep an EV useful in every circumstance. Basically you'll need an EV with at least twice the distance of your daily commute on the sticker to be sure it will serve your purpose. There will be a day you can't charge it at home or at the office.

Yeah, sure, twice distance of commute plus another 50% or so. Which based on the average commute even the oldest leaf with a degraded battery is fine for 60%+ of people. In Sydney/Vancouver at least (stats mentioned above) you'd need ~25-45km range which is nothing.

But now you are going down the rabbit hole where you try to make a Leaf fit where it isn't economically viable. The cheapest Nissan Leaf I can find here right now is 10k euro (including battery) from 2011 with 85k km. However due to the small range and limited fast charging abilities you'd need a second car as well to travel longer distances. The Leaf just isn't suitable for long distances; it has been designed as a short range roundabout second car.  However for 11k euro I can buy a used Toyota Prius from 2010 with 88k km which serves both usages in a single car AND has a good fuel economy. Buying one car is likely cheaper than two even if one of them has low 'fuel' costs.

[SilverSolder]

[...]   I can buy a used Toyota Prius from 2010 with 88k km which serves both usages in a single car AND has a good fuel economy. Buying one car is likely cheaper than two even if one of them has low 'fuel' costs.

I did the math on the Prius versus various EVs and found that the regular hybrid Prius is so good that it is within reach of the least efficient EVs (when fuel is cheap, e.g. USA).
 

[thm_w]

But now you are going down the rabbit hole where you try to make a Leaf fit where it isn't economically viable. The cheapest Nissan Leaf I can find here right now is 10k euro (including battery) from 2011 with 85k km. However due to the small range and limited fast charging abilities you'd need a second car as well to travel longer distances. The Leaf just isn't suitable for long distances; it has been designed as a short range roundabout second car.  However for 11k euro I can buy a used Toyota Prius from 2010 with 88k km which serves both usages in a single car AND has a good fuel economy. Buying one car is likely cheaper than two even if one of them has low 'fuel' costs.

2011 is a really bad year but: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used-Nissan-Leaf-Seattle-d2077_L37788#listing=249033242 

Buying one is cheaper than two for sure, although the average US household has 1.8 cars. Which means having one short range one long range could be viable.

[james_s]

I don't know anyone who lives in the suburbs and has only one car in the household, virtually every family has two, those with kids of driving age usually have at least 3 cars. The only reason the national average is that low is because vast numbers of people in cities like New York and Chicago rely on public transit and have no car at all.

[tom66]

I feel sorry for anyone who has a 100 mile commute.

But almost any EV nowadays e.g. the Nissan Leaf with the 40kWh pack will be able to do that.

The effect in cold weather is much less if the vehicle has heated seats, heated steering wheel and a heatpump - both more efficient ways to keep you warm. 

I wonder if EVs will start including better insulation.  In -3C weather my car is pulling 3kW just keeping the cabin at 19'C.  The windscreen and metal body are surely quite poor at retaining that heat.

[tom66]

But now you are going down the rabbit hole where you try to make a Leaf fit where it isn't economically viable. The cheapest Nissan Leaf I can find here right now is 10k euro (including battery) from 2011 with 85k km. However due to the small range and limited fast charging abilities you'd need a second car as well to travel longer distances. The Leaf just isn't suitable for long distances; it has been designed as a short range roundabout second car.  However for 11k euro I can buy a used Toyota Prius from 2010 with 88k km which serves both usages in a single car AND has a good fuel economy. Buying one car is likely cheaper than two even if one of them has low 'fuel' costs.

It really depends on what you need from a car. The majority of couples in the UK both work and because public transit in this country is s#*t, they generally both own cars.

For me and my girlfriend, the Golf GTE and the Nissan Leaf serve us fine.  The GTE is petrol for longer trips, the Leaf is fine for her shorter trips. She doesn't like driving on motorways anyway.  I can borrow it now and then if I'm doing a trip that's a bit longer than the GTE's range but will fit within the Leaf's range.  Together that has reduced our fuel consumption by 95%.

My neighbour owns a Nissan Qashqai and a Nissan Micra; I doubt they take the Micra on long journeys, and she asked me recently and I recommended a Leaf as a replacement for it.  Colleague at work is about to replace their Fiat 500 with a Renault Zoe as we have at work charging and she can plug it in on the weekends at her garage.

There are many cars that *tomorrow* could be replaced with EVs. You can keep going on about the tiny corner cases where EVs don't work but for 99% of people for 99% of driving they will work fine. With all the savings on petrol you could afford to rent a car for that slither of a time that they don't work out.  Do you complain when your hatchback can't fit the sofa you just bought from Ikea in it?  No, you rent a van, because driving a van around for that tiny percentage of the time you need the utility would be silly.

I note that you didn't reply to my comprehensive debunking of the CO2 emissions claim (EVs are about 3x lower emissions than the best hybrid ICE Prius) or the cost of operation claims.   It's almost as if you have some kind of ill-thought towards EVs but can't actually justify it.

[SilverSolder]

So much depend on where you live.  For example, if you are in the USA and drive the national average of 12,000 miles per year with your half decent ICE or hybrid car averaging 30mpg, your annual fuel consumption is 400 gallons, at $3 per gallon it makes $1200 total.   So, even if you found a car that has no energy costs at all, the most you can save is $1200 per year or $100 per month compared with a 30mpg ICE.

That level of saving isn't enough to justify a second car as the sole reason,  but it could be enough to influence your decision if you are changing the old car anyway.

[sokoloff]

There are many cars that *tomorrow* could be replaced with EVs. You can keep going on about the tiny corner cases where EVs don't work but for 99% of people for 99% of driving they will work fine.

I'm pro-EV and daily drive a LEAF as our household second car (and definitely "my" car). I've driven it about 18K miles in 4.5 years and it's mostly great. There's no way in hell that it covers 99% of my driving. I've absolutely had to borrow my wife's car for at least 1000 miles of driving over that time, meaning at best the LEAF only worked for about 95% of my driving (my case is a near ideal case for a low-end EV and I'm probably forgetting other times when we had to switch cars).

With all the savings on petrol you could afford to rent a car for that slither of a time that they don't work out.  Do you complain when your hatchback can't fit the sofa you just bought from Ikea in it?  No, you rent a van, because driving a van around for that tiny percentage of the time you need the utility would be silly.

I note that you didn't reply to my comprehensive debunking of the CO2 emissions claim (EVs are about 3x lower emissions than the best hybrid ICE Prius) or the cost of operation claims.   It's almost as if you have some kind of ill-thought towards EVs but can't actually justify it.

At MA gas and electricity prices, my wife's car costs about $0.13/mile for propulsion (fuel and oil) and my car costs about $0.06/mile (electricity only, including charging losses). Over that 4.5 years, the LEAF has perhaps saved me $25/mo on energy costs. Buying a couple year old Prius back in 2014 would certainly have resulted in a lower total cost of motoring and less need to coordinate range/switch cars.

I bought an EV because I wanted one, not because it was the cheapest solution nor because I thought it could do 99% of my driving.

[nctnico]

I note that you didn't reply to my comprehensive debunking of the CO2 emissions claim (EVs are about 3x lower emissions than the best hybrid ICE Prius) or the cost of operation claims.   It's almost as if you have some kind of ill-thought towards EVs but can't actually justify it.

Your 'debunking' contained too many ifs that there just wasn't enough meat to sink my teeth into. For example the assumption that at night most power comes from nuclear. How about charging during the day at work? Also you choose an unrealistically low EV power consumption figure. The reasons people get low power consumption for EVs is because they mostly use them for short non-highway trips. But in those cases a hybrid will also be much more efficient.

See the reply from sokoloff to address the other points. He sums it up nicely.

[boffin]

I note that you didn't reply to my comprehensive debunking of the CO2 emissions claim (EVs are about 3x lower emissions than the best hybrid ICE Prius) or the cost of operation claims.   It's almost as if you have some kind of ill-thought towards EVs but can't actually justify it.

At MA gas and electricity prices, my wife's car costs about $0.13/mile for propulsion (fuel and oil) and my car costs about $0.06/mile (electricity only, including charging losses). Over that 4.5 years, the LEAF has perhaps saved me $25/mo on energy costs. Buying a couple year old Prius back in 2014 would certainly have resulted in a lower total cost of motoring and less need to coordinate range/switch cars.
[/quote]
My fuels savings are probably in the C$100/month range, with a 20k (ea way) commute.  Perhaps a little more.  It will pay for the relatively small premium that the EV version of my car was over an ICE version in 5 years approx.

[floobydust]

What is the cost per recharge, in terms of battery life? I don't see it taken into consideration. ICE refueling cost is zero, but with an EV you are using battery life.

For numbers, I used 1,600 cycle life $7,600 replacement cost 30kWhr pack and 80% DOD.
Electricity at $0.10 kwhr is $2.40 per recharge.
Battery wear cost is (1/1600)*$7,600 = $4.75,  twice the electricity cost, so actual recharge cost is $7.15
Is this reasonable?

[wraper]

What is the cost per recharge, in terms of battery life? I don't see it taken into consideration. ICE refueling cost is zero, but with an EV you are using battery life.

For numbers, I used 1,600 cycle life $7,600 replacement cost 30kWhr pack and 80% DOD.
Electricity at $0.10 kwhr is $2.40 per recharge.
Battery wear cost is (1/1600)*$7,600 = $4.75,  twice the electricity cost, so actual recharge cost is $7.15
Is this reasonable?

No, because ICE cars wear out but you assume they are not. Replacing engine with new is usually beyond economical repair unless car is still rather new. Which basically excludes engine failure due to normal wear. So usually it is replaced with engine salvaged from scrap or car is sold for scrap itself. If we look at oldest Tesla cars, data shows battery replacement due to wear will never be needed during vehicle lifetime. Even 8 year old cars have 90+% of battery capacity left. Of course if you buy crappy Nissan Leaf without battery thermal management, you'd better take battery wear in consideration.

[f4eru]

What is the cost per recharge, in terms of battery life? I don't see it taken into consideration.

The cost is simply factored in the price of the car, as the cost of an ICE engine is also, without a replacement.
Batteries don't get replaced by the owner for modern EVs, because, if you have 320km of range, 1600*320km = 1/2 million km.
And that's kind of worst case, if  you charge every day 80%, which nobody does. In normal "non taxi" use, EV batteries will last a million km.

OK, unless you have a LEAF, which has abnormal battery  wear when used with DC fast charging, due to the bad thermal design.

[maginnovision]

Most ICE vehicles don't require engine replacements. When there is a major problem specific components can be replaced rather than the whole thing. That's mostly NOT going to be the case with the electric motors or batteries. I'm interested in seeing how they fare over 250K miles. I've never had a car have such major issues they needed an engine. I have seen a couple when working on them but generally stupid people doing stupid things and they can do that just as well with an electric car. That's also seeing over 300 cars a day for many years so it's a reasonable sample size. Mostly a single brand though. E46 3/5 series 6 cylinders were the worst because the coolant system ran backwards and could ruin blocks instead of heads.

[wraper]

Most ICE vehicles don't require engine replacements. When there is a major problem specific components can be replaced rather than the whole thing. That's mostly NOT going to be the case with the electric motors or batteries.

Really? That only happens when engine still has low mileage. When it's over 100k-150k miles or often even less, most modern engines become irreparable scrap.

[wraper]

https://insideevs.com/news/339110/highest-mileage-tesla-now-has-over-420000-miles/

Highest Mileage Tesla Now Has Over 420,000 Miles

[maginnovision]

Most ICE vehicles don't require engine replacements. When there is a major problem specific components can be replaced rather than the whole thing. That's mostly NOT going to be the case with the electric motors or batteries.

Really? That only happens when engine still has low mileage. When it's over 100k-150k miles or often even less, most modern engines become irreparable scrap.

That's the most unintelligent thing you've ever written and has no basis in reality.

https://insideevs.com/news/339110/highest-mileage-tesla-now-has-over-420000-miles/

Highest Mileage Tesla Now Has Over 420,000 Miles

I'm actually looking for more cars to actually get data out of it, not a 1 off. Maybe in a few years or so we'll have a better idea. Even the old ones aren't that old and don't have a ton of miles. I know a while back you could find a bunch of older honda hybrids(I forget exact model) for cheap because the batteries were no longer any good and they were just heavy hondas.

[james_s]

Properly taken care of, virtually any modern ICE or EV battery will last the life of the car, so this is a non-issue. Especially these days when bumpers are a joke and the entire front and rear of the car are sacrificial. Then there are all the stupid integrated touchscreen electronics that will be hopelessly out of date, imagine trying to use a 15 year old smartphone. The days of doing what I do and keeping a car indefinitely are pretty much over.

[bdunham7]

Most ICE vehicles don't require engine replacements. When there is a major problem specific components can be replaced rather than the whole thing. That's mostly NOT going to be the case with the electric motors or batteries.

Really? That only happens when engine still has low mileage. When it's over 100k-150k miles or often even less, most modern engines become irreparable scrap.

I had an old (1980) Volvo 240 that the odometer broke on just short of 400K miles.  I sold it and the new owner had it for about 5 years and then I got it back, still running but beyond repair for other reasons.  I've ridden in Priuses (Prii?) used as airport shuttles that were into the 400K mile range.  If you take a more or less ordinary car and use it a lot and maintain it a bit, you can rack up a lot of miles. 

[wraper]

Most ICE vehicles don't require engine replacements. When there is a major problem specific components can be replaced rather than the whole thing. That's mostly NOT going to be the case with the electric motors or batteries.

Really? That only happens when engine still has low mileage. When it's over 100k-150k miles or often even less, most modern engines become irreparable scrap.

I had an old (1980) Volvo 240 that the odometer broke on just short of 400K miles.  I sold it and the new owner had it for about 5 years and then I got it back, still running but beyond repair for other reasons.  I've ridden in Priuses (Prii?) used as airport shuttles that were into the 400K mile range.  If you take a more or less ordinary car and use it a lot and maintain it a bit, you can rack up a lot of miles.

Because it was old Volvo. It's a bit different in US but in EU it's most common that a lot of power is salvaged from least engine volume. Such engines last only if impeccably maintained and not stressed (usually does not happen) and even then not that durable. Of course there are still engines which last but many do not. Cylinder boring (with all it comes with) on worn out engine to extend lifetime is possible but it's expensive, especially in 1st world countries. It certainly does not qualify as simply "when there is a major problem specific components can be replaced rather than the whole thing". Often may consider just as beyond economical repair.

[james_s]

I had an old (1980) Volvo 240 that the odometer broke on just short of 400K miles.  I sold it and the new owner had it for about 5 years and then I got it back, still running but beyond repair for other reasons.  I've ridden in Priuses (Prii?) used as airport shuttles that were into the 400K mile range.  If you take a more or less ordinary car and use it a lot and maintain it a bit, you can rack up a lot of miles.

I'm on my second interior on my '84 240, it's only got about 230k on it though. I had a '87 740 Turbo that had 330k on it when I was rear ended by a semi. My mom still has the '86 240 she bought new, it's also on the second interior but with 350k miles the engine has never been opened. Those old Volvo redblock engines were bulletproof.

[tom66]

Your 'debunking' contained too many ifs that there just wasn't enough meat to sink my teeth into. For example the assumption that at night most power comes from nuclear. How about charging during the day at work? Also you choose an unrealistically low EV power consumption figure. The reasons people get low power consumption for EVs is because they mostly use them for short non-highway trips. But in those cases a hybrid will also be much more efficient.

I didn't make that assumption at all.

I simply took the UK carbon-dioxide average for CO2 per kWh of electricity (at the plug socket) which is around 250g per kWh.  At night, CO2 emissions *generally* fall. This is because, in part, demand at night is lower, so the available renewable and nuclear energy can support it with much lower carbon intensity. However, the calculation wasn't made with the assumption that you charge at night; that's simply a possible bonus. 

I then compared two efficient vehicles, for their given class - a Prius and an e-Golf.  So I'm giving the petrol car its best chance by selecting one of the more efficient, common petrol vehicles. The e-Golf is far from the most efficient EV.  It's not bad, but mostly its efficiency comes from being a relatively average hatchback.  If you want to run the comparison with the less efficient Leaf, then sure, it's a little worse, but only 10% or so more. 

The EV only loses out when you take something like a Tesla Model S, a large and heavy vehicle, run it off 100% coal, and then compare it to a 0.9L VW up!.  The Tesla might be about 25% worse then, but that's a ridiculous comparison. If you were to compare it to something more reasonable, a vehicle in its class such as a BMW 530d, which has emissions of 140gCO2/km, then it's *still* better than that, *even if it is powered entirely by coal*.

I'll run another comparison:

Burning 1L of petrol produces 2.31kg of CO2.  There are other emissions that aren't accounted for in this figure, such as the emissions produced in the production/extraction/refinement of petrol, and the distribution, usually by tanker truck. And I couldn't get an accurate figure for these.   But it's going to be worse than the stoichiometric figures.

VW e-Up! vs VW up! 1.0L petrol 75PS

11.7kWh/100km [1] vs 4.5L/100km [2].

CO2 emissions for 100km are therefore (on UK domestic electricity) 2.92kg vs 10.4kg.  A reduction of ~72%.

[1] https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/e-up-3497
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Up#Engines

[sokoloff]

Properly taken care of, virtually any modern ICE or EV battery will last the life of the car, so this is a non-issue.

This is a little bit like saying "virtually any human heart will last the life of a person."

[EEVblog]

Still trying to find a used LEAF. It seems to be either sub $20k for a 2014 with 24kW pack, or $33k+ for a 2016 with 30kW pack.

[tom66]

Still trying to find a used LEAF. It seems to be either sub $20k for a 2014 with 24kW pack, or $33k+ for a 2016 with 30kW pack.

It's kWh, not kW.  The motor in the Leaf is rated for 80kW in the older models, but EV batteries are always capacity rated in kWh or Ah. 

I think the issue is that the Leaf was introduced very late into the Aussie market, so there's many fewer used examples.  I can find a used 2011 Leaf for £7,000 GBP - about $13,000 AUS.  But the market is saturated because many were given away on very generous lease/contract purchase deals (a colleague of mine was leasing one, all in, for £99 a month, 8000 miles per annum, cheaper than even the cheapest petrol cars.)  I don't think the same think happened in Australia.

[Towger]

Still trying to find a used LEAF. It seems to be either sub $20k for a 2014 with 24kW pack, or $33k+ for a 2016 with 30kW pack.

If you want to pay shipping, here is a 2015 for under 8k euro. If you don't mind high mileage.

http://www.adverts.ie/18678533

[coppice]

But the market is saturated because many were given away on very generous lease/contract purchase deals (a colleague of mine was leasing one, all in, for £99 a month, 8000 miles per annum

Do you know how that worked? I know people in the US who got deals like that. "$110 a month, no fuel costs, I can park at the chargers at work, avoiding a long walk across the car park, and we get an extra car for use around town" seemed like an irresistible offer to some people who were not even looking for an extra car. I don't see how that price makes sense to Nissan, though, even with lots of government incentives.

[nctnico]

Most ICE vehicles don't require engine replacements. When there is a major problem specific components can be replaced rather than the whole thing. That's mostly NOT going to be the case with the electric motors or batteries.

Really? That only happens when engine still has low mileage. When it's over 100k-150k miles or often even less, most modern engines become irreparable scrap.

That's the most unintelligent thing you've ever written and has no basis in reality.

I agree. This might have been true in the 70's but nowadays you can get 300k km from any car engine if you replace the oil in time and don't do stupid stuff like continue driving when there is a red alarm light on.

[coppice]

Most ICE vehicles don't require engine replacements. When there is a major problem specific components can be replaced rather than the whole thing. That's mostly NOT going to be the case with the electric motors or batteries.

Really? That only happens when engine still has low mileage. When it's over 100k-150k miles or often even less, most modern engines become irreparable scrap.

That's the most unintelligent thing you've ever written and has no basis in reality.

I agree. This might have been true in the 70's but nowadays you can get 300k km from any car engine if you replace the oil in time and don't do stupid stuff like continue driving when there is a red alarm light on.

300k km == 187.5k miles, which doesn't seem a whole lot bigger than the original poster's 150k mile figure.

Car engine life has a lot to do with usage patterns. In the US, where the average journey is longer than in Europe or Asia, you see many many cars with extreme mileage figures that are still performing well.

[nctnico]

100k miles = 160k km. Half of 300k so no, Wrapers numbers are way off.

[wraper]

Still trying to find a used LEAF. It seems to be either sub $20k for a 2014 with 24kW pack, or $33k+ for a 2016 with 30kW pack.

30 kWh battery is complete crap which degrades very fast. Much worse even than not that good 24 kWh battery. There is very high chance there will be less capacity left than if you buy older car with 24 kWh battery.

[wraper]

100k miles = 160k km. Half of 300k so no, Wrapers numbers are way off.

FWIW many engines die even faster if not properly maintained. Maybe my numbers are a bit low, but they were meant in general, not proper care scenario. Then there also is transmission which wears out too.

[tom66]

But the market is saturated because many were given away on very generous lease/contract purchase deals (a colleague of mine was leasing one, all in, for £99 a month, 8000 miles per annum

Do you know how that worked? I know people in the US who got deals like that. "$110 a month, no fuel costs, I can park at the chargers at work, avoiding a long walk across the car park, and we get an extra car for use around town" seemed like an irresistible offer to some people who were not even looking for an extra car. I don't see how that price makes sense to Nissan, though, even with lots of government incentives.

I think they were losing money on every car leased.  There were some benefits in getting tradeable carbon certificates but I doubt ultimately worth it.

The idea was to get the cars out there so people recognised them and saw that EVs (particularly EVs from Renault-Nissan) will be viable.  And it has worked, to an extent; they are the best-selling EVs in the world, Tesla just behind.

Almost an opposite of the Roadster model (start high and then go lower.)

[tom66]

30 kWh battery is complete crap which degrades very fast. Much worse even than not that good 24 kWh battery. There is very high chance there will be less capacity left than if you buy older car with 24 kWh battery.

This is why I would never buy a Nissan EV or any EV without liquid-cooled batteries with intention of using it as a primary vehicle. For low mileage low stress driving it is viable, but not high mileage.  Ford had the same issue in the USA with their PHEV Energi batteries.  Air cooled and as a result, at 50% SOH after 5 years, unacceptable.

Air cooling means a fan to blow air over the cell stack, but does very little for internal heat production.  Liquid cooling in most EVs implies metal cooling plates between each cell or at least each pair of cells to remove the heat directly from the cells.

Then add in Rapidgate - Nissan batteries that don't like fast charging more than twice - hmm...

Tesla batteries last.  So far the LG Chem batteries in other EVs last well too.   Nissan batteries don't seem to last, at all.

Leaf is a city EV; treat it as any more and you'll have a bad time I think.

[james_s]

Properly taken care of, virtually any modern ICE or EV battery will last the life of the car, so this is a non-issue.

This is a little bit like saying "virtually any human heart will last the life of a person."

Perhaps a bit, but my point is that most cars get scrapped with the engine still in serviceable condition. They are scrapped because the paint is shot, the interior is falling to bits, transmission is acting up, accessories are broken, body rust or any number of other "death by a thousand pinpricks" situations where it would cost more to repair all the minor problems they have allowed to stack up than they perceive the car being worth. Then there are all the cars damaged by accidents. If a car is scrapped when the engine is still usable then the engine has lasted the life of the car and a longer lasting engine would not have extended the life of the vehicle.

I think you would find very few cars are junked because the engine is bad, and with most that are it is not really worn out but was destroyed by catastrophic incidents like a broken timing belt or loss of oil or coolant.

[floobydust]

I find a car's life is limited by body rust, in Canada salt and sand are applied to icy winter roads and the body corrodes faster than say near the ocean, or wet tropical climates. The ICE seems to die around the same time ~300,000km looking at dead cars in the wrecking yard. DeLorean was right using SS 
So an EV's extra drivetrain life is probably not usable. Hmm.

EV batteries with a lifetime rated in miles seems silly. You don't know if the miles were soft and easy or hard and fast. I can't make distance relevant to discharge depth and rate and number of cycles and heat the battery has experienced.
I'm interested in ESR testers for batteries and wouldn't they tell you a lot about the pack's health? Before you buy used, one test to do instead of speculative psychology, hope and optimism.

[nctnico]

I'm interested in ESR testers for batteries and wouldn't they tell you a lot about the pack's health?

I have looked into this a couple of years ago. The problem is that there are several aging mechanisms at play and you can't just look at the ESR (or even better: complex impedance) to see what the battery pack's health is. At most you can do a full cycle test and see how much of the capacity is still there and based on the mileage of the car try to extrapolate how much more you can get from the battery pack. However wear on a battery pack is severely influenced by how it is charged, how it is discharged and at what temperatures this happened. So you can get to a number with +/-30% accuracy.

[sokoloff]

I'm interested in ESR testers for batteries and wouldn't they tell you a lot about the pack's health? Before you buy used, one test to do instead of speculative psychology, hope and optimism.

Most of the EVs do a periodic battery health evaluation and store the results in the battery management system.

Many of these have been reverse engineered and you can get a readout using 3rd party tools (in addition to and often with more detail than what's displayed on the vehicle instrument cluster).

[tom66]

I'm interested in ESR testers for batteries and wouldn't they tell you a lot about the pack's health?

I have looked into this a couple of years ago. The problem is that there are several aging mechanisms at play and you can't just look at the ESR (or even better: complex impedance) to see what the battery pack's health is. At most you can do a full cycle test and see how much of the capacity is still there and based on the mileage of the car try to extrapolate how much more you can get from the battery pack. However wear on a battery pack is severely influenced by how it is charged, how it is discharged and at what temperatures this happened. So you can get to a number with +/-30% accuracy.

EVs manage to measure battery capacity just fine by coloumb counting. To do this accurately, the pack needs to be fully charged and fully discharged periodically.

Issues occur when the pack remains mostly in the middle SOC environment because it is never fully charged or fully discharged and so the BMS hasn't been able to sort weak cells (which generally define the lowest discharge voltage) or measure overall capacity. To get the most accurate range measurement from an EV pack it is probably best to subject it to a long, relatively high load motorway drive (to represent higher average power draw from the pack) until it is as depleted as reasonably possible.  Testing on a dyno is also possible, but would take a relatively long time. 

[nctnico]

I'm interested in ESR testers for batteries and wouldn't they tell you a lot about the pack's health?

I have looked into this a couple of years ago. The problem is that there are several aging mechanisms at play and you can't just look at the ESR (or even better: complex impedance) to see what the battery pack's health is. At most you can do a full cycle test and see how much of the capacity is still there and based on the mileage of the car try to extrapolate how much more you can get from the battery pack. However wear on a battery pack is severely influenced by how it is charged, how it is discharged and at what temperatures this happened. So you can get to a number with +/-30% accuracy.

EVs manage to measure battery capacity just fine by coloumb counting. To do this accurately, the pack needs to be fully charged and fully discharged periodically.

You are missing the point. The pack's health goes way beyond just the capacity. What you want to know is how much wear the cells have experienced and how soon they will break. Ideally you want to know this for each individual cell because like it or not each cell will wear in a slightly different way; they aren't 100% identical. The weakest cell in a string (say a sub section of a battery pack) will determine how long the string will remain working. There is still a lot of research going on in this area and we are likely to see way more sophisticated battery management hardware.

A capacity measurement is just a momentary measurement. It will say nothing about the growth of dendrites for example.

[tom66]

Dendrites short the cells.  That's fatal.  But no pack should be forming dendrites at all, because that indicates charging has exceeded rated temperatures (usually too fast of a charge when cold.) 

Pack health is dominated by capacity and ESR.  Both of these are measured by the BMS system, but require the pack to be discharged to find the weakest cells, as the ESR of li-ion cells has a SOC-dependent characteristic (voltage drop is higher when state of charge is lower.) And to measure the overall capacity you then need to charge the pack up again.

[nctnico]

Dendrites short the cells.

Not immediately and that is where the problem lies and why looking at the ESR and capacity isn't enough to judge how long the battery pack will last.

[EEVblog]

Leaf is a city EV; treat it as any more and you'll have a bad time I think.

You can't really treat it as anything more, it doesn't have the range.

[EEVblog]

Still trying to find a used LEAF. It seems to be either sub $20k for a 2014 with 24kW pack, or $33k+ for a 2016 with 30kW pack.

It's kWh, not kW.  The motor in the Leaf is rated for 80kW in the older models, but EV batteries are always capacity rated in kWh or Ah. 

Yes, I know, I'm being lazy. It's common in the industry to drop the h, most of the ads do, and common in EV forums too when talking about a known type.

[Brumby]

Yes, I know, I'm being lazy. It's common in the industry to drop the h, most of the ads do, and common in EV forums too when talking about a known type.

This from the guy who did EEVblog #1009 - Voltage vs Power vs Energy

[sokoloff]

I don’t think Dave is arguing that what he typed was correct/valid.

[EEVblog]

Yes, I know, I'm being lazy. It's common in the industry to drop the h, most of the ads do, and common in EV forums too when talking about a known type.

This from the guy who did EEVblog #1009 - Voltage vs Power vs Energy

I should clarify, it's common in the EV industry it seems, it's (incorrectly) kW on most of the ads and EV forum posts that I've been reading, I have kW instead of kWh on the brain as a result. Owners know it's kWh, but they just say "I've got a 24kW", just like we say 10k when we mean 10kΩ. So even just shorten in to "24k" in fact, and you need the sentence context to know they mean kWh and not km.

[Brumby]

Hmmm...  I'm inclined to pay that - but, to make a distinction, when we talk about a resistor of 10k - we all know the missing ohms part belongs.

I don't think the same can be said for the EV industry.

[tom66]

Dendrites short the cells.

Not immediately and that is where the problem lies and why looking at the ESR and capacity isn't enough to judge how long the battery pack will last.

I disagree because dendrite formation is a sign of a pack that has been severely mistreated. Either by poor design or by being left in a low discharge state for much of its life.

The gradual capacity loss of a Li-Ion battery is not related to dendrites. And I doubt, short of SEM-analysis of the cells, you will be able to detect them before they start shorting the cell.  Perhaps you might get early high self-discharge if you had fine dendrite build up, but I suspect this would be short lived; the heat produced by the cell would likely lead to thermal runaway.  Probably one of the reasons EV manufacturers are very careful about how the cells are treated.

[tom66]

I should clarify, it's common in the EV industry it seems, it's (incorrectly) kW on most of the ads and EV forum posts that I've been reading, I have kW instead of kWh on the brain as a result. Owners know it's kWh, but they just say "I've got a 24kW", just like we say 10k when we mean 10kΩ. So even just shorten in to "24k" in fact, and you need the sentence context to know they mean kWh and not km.

I don't think it's common at all. I don't see any mainstream ads or brochure material from EV manufacturers that mix the two.
Perhaps used car places do, and obviously owners/enthusiasts/etc do, but it's certainly not "right", and "kWh" is hardly much more to type.
24k would be fine (though I'd argue for a capital K to distinguish it from resistance), I think the problem is when people genuinely don't know the difference between kW and kWh.

[sokoloff]

If anything, I'd think you'd need to distinguish from kilometers, not kilo-ohms for an EV car battery commentary I'd think.

How would capital K distinguish it from resistance anyway (which is using the same system of multiplier adjectives as kilowatts, kilowatt-hours, and kilometers)?

[nctnico]

Dendrites short the cells.

Not immediately and that is where the problem lies and why looking at the ESR and capacity isn't enough to judge how long the battery pack will last.

I disagree because dendrite formation is a sign of a pack that has been severely mistreated. Either by poor design or by being left in a low discharge state for much of its life.

The gradual capacity loss of a Li-Ion battery is not related to dendrites.

You are contradicting yourself here. What I'm trying to point out: when buying a second hand EV you don't know how good/bad the battery has been treated and you can't determine this just from the capacity of the pack because there are other factors at play (dendrites is one example of these factors). The pack may have been fast charged a lot, left in very hot or very cold places, left deeply discharged, etc. You don't know and it is difficult (if not impossible to measure) but it will affect the life expectancy.

[sokoloff]

What I'm trying to point out: when buying a second hand EV you don't know how good/bad the battery has been treated and you can't determine this just from the capacity of the pack because there are other factors at play (dendrites is one example of these factors). The pack may have been fast charged a lot, left in very hot or very cold places, left deeply discharged, etc. You don't know and it is difficult (if not impossible to measure) but it will affect the life expectancy.

In most cases, you can read some of that information from the BMS. On my LEAF, as of this morning, my car has 17,793 miles, and has been quick charged once (prior to delivery) and L1/L2 charged 873 times. (The charge count indicates connect/disconnect cycles, not necessarily the depth of charge each time.)

Further, there is a state of health calculation that is run periodically (exact procedure varies by car, but it tends to be "discharge below a certain level, let it rest a few hours to stabilize, then charge it up fully and let it rest a bit to stabilize" at which point the BMS will then update its statistics on the individual cell health). Is it perfect? Of course not. Is it a ton more information than you get from looking at the number of bars of battery capacity on the instrument panel? Absolutely.

I would go so far as to suggest that you can easily get more information about the battery health than you do about the health of an internal combustion engine when shopping for a used car.

[nctnico]

What I'm trying to point out: when buying a second hand EV you don't know how good/bad the battery has been treated and you can't determine this just from the capacity of the pack because there are other factors at play (dendrites is one example of these factors). The pack may have been fast charged a lot, left in very hot or very cold places, left deeply discharged, etc. You don't know and it is difficult (if not impossible to measure) but it will affect the life expectancy.

In most cases, you can read some of that information from the BMS. On my LEAF, as of this morning, my car has 17,793 miles, and has been quick charged once (prior to delivery) and L1/L2 charged 873 times. (The charge count indicates connect/disconnect cycles, not necessarily the depth of charge each time.)

That may seem like a lot of information but it still doesn't say everything you want to know about how the battery has been treated. To make some kind of assessment you want to know the minimum SOC, minimum charge temperature, minimum discharge temperature, maximum SOC, maximum charge temperature, time between charges, etc, etc. The BMS likely has a log of this (or it should have) but can you get to this information as a consumer? And even then it is guess work.

I would go so far as to suggest that you can easily get more information about the battery health than you do about the health of an internal combustion engine when shopping for a used car.

Not really. For an ICE there are several tell-tale signs of engine wear. But even then... worst case a used engine (with half the mileage) for my car is 5 times cheaper compared to a refurbished battery pack for a Nissan Leaf. Which takes the discussion back to affordability / costs. Both with a used EV or ICE car you can get unlucky. The big question is how this translates to monetary loss for the owner.

[maginnovision]

You can do 3 quick tests for an engine that currently runs ok and be reasonably sure it's ok. Cooling system important for ICE and EV alike. Perform a pressure check for 20 Minutes or so to really check. That includes checking the cap. Sometimes small drips can leak out and not show on gauge for some time this is combine with visual checks. Then you can also perform a compression test. This will give you a decent amount of information on the state of the cylinders(and mating components) and the valvetrain. I would give this an hour for most cars. A lot of them will take less time, some V8's will start testing you on the hour since they can be quite compact. After that you can be reasonably sure the engine is ok.

You could also check oil pressure though. This can be terribly variable for time and difficulty but it'll give you a decent idea about the rest of the engines condition.  Unless it's a race engine this is all you really need to check to know everything that matters. There are ancillary tests like fuel pressure, verifying thermostat works normally but those aren't really the engine and don't take much time at all. Like I said earlier, most issues are easy to fix, everything external to the engine is pretty easy even for DIY(assuming it's not turbo charged).

[tom66]

You are contradicting yourself here. What I'm trying to point out: when buying a second hand EV you don't know how good/bad the battery has been treated and you can't determine this just from the capacity of the pack because there are other factors at play (dendrites is one example of these factors). The pack may have been fast charged a lot, left in very hot or very cold places, left deeply discharged, etc. You don't know and it is difficult (if not impossible to measure) but it will affect the life expectancy.

Severely mistreated as in left at a below 0-mile SOC for some time.  Almost no EV pack will be recoverable from this state without some considerable "hacking" of the BMS to even allow charging.

(Tesla Roadster batteries are known to "brick" from owners not using their car all summer, and leaving the car with a dead pack.  Newer cars shut off residual loads so this should be...virtually impossible.  But in any case, even the Roadster batteries need to be repaired before they work again, the BMS will not engage the contactors to allow charging if the pack is under-voltage.)

I am very certain that such abuse will show itself in other ways, such as poor overall battery SOH.

Outside of low SOC environments, dendrite formation in the battery pack is not possible, unless the EV manufacturer is completely incompetent (i.e. allowing supercharging with a freezing pack.) Which, although not impossible, would be likely something you observe with a smaller hobby/kit EV manufacturer, not a large one.  As battery fires, which would be a likely result of spontaneous cell shorts, are not exactly something you want to be happening frequently, as a manufacturer.

Though, you may be interested that my GTE does in fact store much of the data you want: Total hours operation of the battery pack, historical maximum cell temperature, minimum cell temperature, as well as historical minimum/maximum cell voltages and SOCs.

[thm_w]

Still trying to find a used LEAF. It seems to be either sub $20k for a 2014 with 24kW pack, or $33k+ for a 2016 with 30kW pack.

30 kWh battery is complete crap which degrades very fast. Much worse even than not that good 24 kWh battery. There is very high chance there will be less capacity left than if you buy older car with 24 kWh battery.

https://pushevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Nissan-Leaf-battery-SOH-data.png.webp

This was "debunked" by Nissan themselves. They changed the 2016+ firmware and the SOH no longer degrades this quickly. Whether or not you trust them, not sure, I don't believe its been proven either way yet.
Anyway 2014 has been proven to be a excellent battery in mild climates, hotter regions not so much.

To pay 65% more for 25% extra range is not a great value proposition.

[SilverSolder]

To pay 65% more for 25% extra range is not a great value proposition.

Depends -  if the smaller battery is just that little bit too small to get you to the office, even an extra tiny bit would be valuable!

[Brumby]

To pay 65% more for 25% extra range is not a great value proposition.

Depends -  if the smaller battery is just that little bit too small to get you to the office, even an extra tiny bit would be valuable!

Absolutely.  If a product does not achieve a minimum threshhold, then it has to be eliminated from consideration.

That extra 25% could be the difference between exclusion and inclusion, in which case the 65% figure will, essentially, be irrelevant.

[EEVblog]

Perhaps used car places do, and obviously owners/enthusiasts/etc do, but it's certainly not "right", and "kWh" is hardly much more to type.
24k would be fine (though I'd argue for a capital K to distinguish it from resistance), I think the problem is when people genuinely don't know the difference between kW and kWh.

I'm not saying it's right, just pointing out that it's common and that's where my brain was after reading countless ads and EV forum posts.

[edy]

Hey Dave, Great eevBLAB by the way!!! You hit the nail right on the head!

To add my 2 cents here it goes...

1) I drive a Honda CR-V, it's now going on 8 years (2011 model) and around 65,000 km.
2) I've started biking to work, which is about 5 km away, takes me 20 minutes.

I've looked at electric cars and really the use-case scenario depends on a complex formula involving your yearly driving mileage, types of activities and haulage you do, the cost differential of electric vs. gas vs. hybrid in your area, and the price of gas, weather, price of the car (affordability) and many other factors. To believe that ELECTRIC is going to overtake GAS for everybody is INSANE!!!!   

Just like every other technology, I see electric as a nice option that will reach an equilibrium and perhaps suit the needs of a certain percentage of the population, but ultimately increasing adoption will be the result of changes in the various factors I mentioned above and re-evaluation by consumers at each step of their life to see if it makes sense or not. But I don't see an electric vehicle suiting my needs any time soon.

My car:


For one, my ridiculously low mileage annually and the fact that I am also trying to put in a decent number of bike days in my daily commute to work would *seemingly* make me want to buy a low-range electric? As paradoxical as that sounds, it is actually better for me to own the Honda. The stats show about 10 km/L fuel economy, which is basically a drive to work and back. The tank holds 40 L, so theoretically it should last me 40 days, but in actuality I need to fill up about every 2-3 weeks because of other trips. Let's say 2 weeks. Cost of gas these days is $1.15/L, so let's say $50 a tank, biweekly, or $1300 a year in fuel ($50 x 26). To cross-reference the math, let's say I use 40L biweekly, that's 1040 L per year. So at 10km/L I would be able to travel about 10,400 km annually. This is within reason as my car has under 70,000 km and it's a 2011 model I've had for 8 years so yes I actually do less than 10,000 km per year on it. And that's not even with biking, which I only started recently... Imagine how many fewer days I would use the car when I bike!!!!

The NISSAN LEAF in Canada starts at $42,298. My Honda CR-V with leather and alloy wheels (almost top model just 1 step below, missing built-in GPS Nav) cost me about $35,000. The base model starts at $27,690, and they have a hell of a good retention value because they last and have low maintenance.

Leaf:


Not that you can compare APPLES and ORANGES here. I wouldn't be able to throw nearly as much into the back of a Nissan Leaf as I can into my Honda CR-V where the entire back seats drop and the hatch-back can swallow up bikes, lumber, patio stones, etc... no problem. But even the price alone differential between the Leaf and base CR-V is $42,298 - $27,690 = $14,608 Loonies!!!! (That's Canadian bucks for you). 

So based on the cost of gasoline for me, even at say $1400/year, I would have to drive over 10 years at the current rate JUST TO gain a return on investment on fuel savings, and that's not even including the cost of electricity for 10 years which I'd need to spend on the Nissan Leaf. So I have this...

Honda CR-V + 10 years worth of gas = Nissan Leaf + free electricity for 10 years   

What would the cost be to charge a Nissan Leaf, to go 10,000 km a year? How many KwH and at what Canadian charging rate (let's say the cost of hydro at night during low-peak hours) would it cost me in electricity per hour? What are the maintenance costs going to be on a Leaf? Higher? Lower?

You see, IT MAKES NO FREAKING SENSE for me to buy even one of the CHEAPEST electric cars on the planet. I can take the CR-V on long road trips no problem, handle snow and get serviced almost anywhere no problem. It is a no-brainer. And I didn't even mention the FREEZING Canadian winters here where you will see that Leaf battery range dwindle severely, and try handling some snow in that little thing.

Even if I were to ever get a new car, I'd probably get a Hybrid with minimal range-electric to jump back and forth to work, but have the capacity to fuel long-distance drives. But even so, any plug-in hybrids are fairly pricey. One honda.ca you can find the Clarity plug-in Hybrid MSRP $40,100 but it says government incentives up to $13,000, so potentially you could get if for about $27,100 (although I highly doubt that, if anything maybe $5,000... either way it would probably be in the mid-$30k's). Anyways, this car has a 76km range which would suit my needs a full week before I have to plug it in. I could theoretically never use the gas in it. And total driving range is about 500km on a tank.

Incidentally, a Telsa Model 3 which is the cheapest Tesla base price Canada is $54,990.    That is almost 2 Honda CR-V's. Definitely off my radar.

I'm not sure whether its "eco-friendly" delusion/euphoria or "keep up with the Jones's" (not Dave, but you know the saying) happening but if one jumps in on an electric vehicle purchase without doing these calculations it could be a costly mistake. It's always good to think about electric/hybrid and be nice to our planet but you may be able to find other ways to do it, and get your "carbon credits" somewhere else in your lifestyle behaviour patterns. It really depends on your motivation and goals behind the purchase, and why you are choosing electric or not.

[thm_w]

For one, my ridiculously low mileage annually and the fact that I am also trying to put in a decent number of bike days in my daily commute to work would *seemingly* make me want to buy a low-range electric? As paradoxical as that sounds, it is actually better for me to own the Honda. The stats show about 10 km/L fuel economy, which is basically a drive to work and back.

No thats the opposite of someone who should financially justify a low-range electric. Someone who drives a lot, yearly speaking, but not in terms of single long distance trips, is the person it makes most sense for. eg a 60km round trip commute 5 times per week, plus some km on the weekends, etc.

Biking/walking to work daily and having a reasonably fuel efficient vehicle for longer trips is about as good as you can get $ wise. Arguably you'd be better off with a car share or renting when needed for long trips, but that won't be as convenient as some here are accustomed to.

Good to hear you are biking though.

[tom66]

@edy
This is why more low-cost EVs need to come onto the market.

The average new car purchase is US$35,000 - around the same price as your base CR-V.

If the Model 3 was available for around that (it's gone up from that price because Tesla has discontinued the base model) in Canada then it could be a very compelling car for some.
The Bolt is also worth looking at, not sure they sell it in Canada, but some people have got them for under $25k, as GM is desperate to shift them. 

Once EVs are under the $25k mark for a ~200 mile range car, I think there's going to be little argument from customers. 
It will be necessary to start applying luxury taxes on ICE cars to account for the pollution they cause, and eventually outright prohibiting new sales except for very specific industry requirements.

[nctnico]

Once EVs are under the $25k mark for a ~200 mile range car, I think there's going to be little argument from customers. 

Don't think so. Other electric vehicles like electric mopeds and bicycles are good alternatives for many as well. Most of the food delivery services I see in the NL use electric bikes. A car with a 200 mile range is a crutch. If it can't replace a normal ICE car then it is only good as a short range (second car) roundabout which won't see much kilometers. In turn this makes the TCO per km very high. Another problem with short range EVs is that they don't do the kilometers to have any significant effect to reduce CO2 emissions. To me it seems an EV is a solution looking for a problem. It just makes more sense to buy an efficient (hybrid) ICE car which can do both long and short trips efficient.

Also take a look at this German well-to-wheel study (comparing VW Golf sizes cars):
https://www.adac.de/verkehr/tanken-kraftstoff-antrieb/alternative-antriebe/co2-treibhausgasbilanz-studie/

In Germany an EV does next to nothing to reduce CO2 emissions:

A car running on CNG (compressed natural gas) offers the most reduction in CO2 emissions. For completeness they also included graphs in case the EV is powered from 0 emission electricity. But even in that case the break even point is at 30k km.

[sokoloff]

Once EVs are under the $25k mark for a ~200 mile range car, I think there's going to be little argument from customers. 

Don't think so. Other electric vehicles like electric mopeds and bicycles are good alternatives for many as well. Most of the food delivery services I see in the NL use electric bikes. A car with a 200 mile range is a crutch. If it can't replace a normal ICE car then it is only good as a short range (second car) roundabout which won't see much kilometers. In turn this makes the TCO per km very high. Another problem with short range EVs is that they don't do the kilometers to have any significant effect to reduco CO2 emissions. To me it seems an EV is a solution looking for a problem.

For the most part, people have a use case for the car and buy a car to fit, rather than buying a car and adjusting their use case to it. Plenty of people have a lifestyle that rarely drives beyond the range of an electric. My wife's car is gas and she averages about 5K miles per year. My car is electric and I average about 4K miles per year. I bought an electric because I was already only driving about 4K miles per year. If I sold it and bought a gas car, I would probably continue to drive about 4K miles per year. My parents have two electric smarts and a Mercedes diesel. They struggle to drive two full tanks of diesel per year in the Merc, doing 95% of their driving in the electrics.

If I drove more, it's true that my TCO per mile/km would go down. That doesn't make it sensible for me to drive more.

We get it. You think electric cars are dumb. Therefore, you probably shouldn't buy one as I'm sure you'd be quite unhappy with it.

[nctnico]

Once EVs are under the $25k mark for a ~200 mile range car, I think there's going to be little argument from customers. 

Don't think so. Other electric vehicles like electric mopeds and bicycles are good alternatives for many as well. Most of the food delivery services I see in the NL use electric bikes. A car with a 200 mile range is a crutch. If it can't replace a normal ICE car then it is only good as a short range (second car) roundabout which won't see much kilometers. In turn this makes the TCO per km very high. Another problem with short range EVs is that they don't do the kilometers to have any significant effect to reduco CO2 emissions. To me it seems an EV is a solution looking for a problem.

For the most part, people have a use case for the car and buy a car to fit, rather than buying a car and adjusting their use case to it. Plenty of people have a lifestyle that rarely drives beyond the range of an electric. My wife's car is gas and she averages about 5K miles per year. My car is electric and I average about 4K miles per year.

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

[sokoloff]

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

It depends on what the alternate reference car would be.

I replaced a rusted-out diesel Mercedes. (Great car; terrible water-based "environmentally friendly" primer and paint system that lead to premature rusting of the car in New England winter conditions. Drivetrain going strong at 210K miles; body unsafe structurally.)

What am I going to replace it with?

I could replace it with a LEAF (what I ultimately did) at about $22K ($32K-$10K in government handouts), financed at 0% for 60 months.
I could replace it with a comparable sized new car (something I'd never have considered) at a higher cost than that.
I could replace it with another used car (the actual alternative).

The LEAF is cheaper to buy, own, and operate than another new car.
It's more expensive to buy, own, and operate than a 5 year older used car.
None of that should be shocking.

We have an ICE car for medium range trips.
We have an airplane for longer trips.

I bought an electric because I wanted one, was curious about it, and could easily afford it. It's been more enjoyable and lower hassle than I expected.

[boffin]

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

You just showed that after driving a mere 30,000km an EV is better on the environment. 
At 5000mi (8000km)/yr, in just over 6 years, it's better for the environment.

So the answer to your own question, using your own data, is YES, it's better for the environment after just 4 yrs.

Thanks for finally admitting you agree with us.

[nctnico]

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

You just showed that after driving a mere 30,000km an EV is better on the environment. 
At 5000mi (8000km)/yr, in just over 6 years, it's better for the environment.

You really don't read at all do you? As a reference the graph shows a case where the electricity comes from a 100% renewable energy source but in Germany (and in most parts of the world) such a source doesn't exist.    The green line marked by E Auto (1) is the case for Germany.

What the graph does show is that EVs do much less or even very little for the environment which is opposite to what the environmentalists like us to believe.

Add to that that most car manufacturers seem to concentrate on short range EVs it is obvious that EVs are not going to result in any significant CO2 emission reduction. The biggest problem is the battery pack which causes a lot of CO2 emissions to produce and basically doubles the CO2 output for the production of a car.

[boffin]

But now do the math: does the additional cost of the EV give you any financial benefit? Does your EV do anything for the environment? Given your low mileage the answer in both cases is very likely no (unless you live in an area with lots of hydro power).

You just showed that after driving a mere 30,000km an EV is better on the environment. 
At 5000mi (8000km)/yr, in just over 6 years, it's better for the environment.

You really don't read at all do you? As a reference the graph shows a case where the electricity comes from a 100% renewable energy source but in Germany (and in most parts of the world) such a source doesn't exist.    The green line marked by E Auto (1) is the case for Germany.

What the graph does show is that EVs do much less or even very little for the environment which is opposite to what the environmentalists like us to believe.

Add to that that most car manufacturers seem to concentrate on short range EVs it is obvious that EVs are not going to result in any significant CO2 emission reduction. The biggest problem is the battery pack which causes a lot of CO2 emissions to produce and basically doubles the CO2 output for the production of a car.

My point is a blanket statement saying EV=BAD is a generalization that shouldn't be made

maybe that's your world, that's not my world (where 90%+ is Hydroelectric).

My EV starts being CO2 friendlier at 30,000km, and my costing (car+fuel) results in my EV being cheaper overall starting around 60,000km. (and that doesn't take into account lower maintenance costs)

[nctnico]

I never made a blanket statement. I only countered the blanket statement (belief) that EVs are green and cheaper to run by definition by defining the window where this is the case and where it isn't.

[f4eru]

Every EV on the road reduces CO2 emissions by about 2 Tons/Year on average.
Meanwhile, Trolls continue to troll.

[Miyuki]

There is nothing like 0 CO2 energy, it will be free
Price of any energy is directly related to its CO2 output or in deep its energy needed to get this energy

Solar might be best today in this terms as it have relative low maintenance, but is very seasonal in most places. Geothermal is interesting in suitable location.
But wind and hydro have high maintenance cost and are destructive to land and animals.

It is not a defense for fosil burning, just need to take everything in all consequences.

If something needs less energy > CO2, then it is cheaper.

[EEVblog]

For one, my ridiculously low mileage annually and the fact that I am also trying to put in a decent number of bike days in my daily commute to work would *seemingly* make me want to buy a low-range electric? As paradoxical as that sounds, it is actually better for me to own the Honda. The stats show about 10 km/L fuel economy, which is basically a drive to work and back.

No thats the opposite of someone who should financially justify a low-range electric. Someone who drives a lot, yearly speaking, but not in terms of single long distance trips, is the person it makes most sense for. eg a 60km round trip commute 5 times per week, plus some km on the weekends, etc.

If it's purely economics you are after, at present the economics of EV's only work in oz in that scenario if you would be buying a relatively expensive ICE car in the first place.
Like I said, for just a round the city car you can buy an ICE under $20k new (as low as $14k if you want a small manual). But the cheapest EV option is $50k+
YMMV in your country.

I'm still looking for a used LEAF...

[bdunham7]

YMMV in your country.

I'm still looking for a used LEAF...

I'd say so! 

https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf-2019/?pth=5&dcp=psn.58700004658395136&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI5Myhmf-s5AIVjMDACh1nqgdUEAAYASAAEgLqdPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

And in California, anyone with an income where they would even worry about the price will receive a total of $10,450 in credits and incentives, so $20K for a 150-mile range Leaf, $6500 more for 226 miles.

And as for used:

https://www.carmax.com/cars/nissan/leaf?location=chicago+il

And that's CarMax, a chain retailer.  If you are willing to settle for an older model with 10 or 11 bars on the battery, under $10K is easily found.

It must be the left hand drive that makes it cheaper! 

[tom66]

Germany's electric grid is a textbook case of failure to manage renewable and greener energy sources.

The grid still has a large coal dependency because the Germans switched off much of their nuclear power.

And now they have still about 40% coal on the grid.

If you take the European kWh average, around 300gCO2e/kWh [1] then EVs make a lot of sense.  Some other countries are better; the UK at 250gCO2e/kWh and Norway at <20gCO2e/kWh.

Germany is one of the worst offenders... at around 500gCO2e/kWh.   So I'm sure it's easy to draw negative conclusions by cherry-picking one country.   Maybe German members would be better driving a diesel in the meantime.

Despite this I do suggest that at even 500gCO2e/kWh emissions the EV will be greener though the payback time will be longer.  See my previous analysis of various other vehicles which show that EVs in-use emissions are much lower.

But for MOST people in MOST countries EVs will be much better in terms of CO2 emissions.

[1] eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/co2-emission-intensity-5

[EEVblog]

Been hearing ads on the radio for the new model LEAF. First time I've ever seen or heard an ad for an EV in this country.

[sokoloff]

Been hearing ads on the radio for the new model LEAF. First time I've ever seen or heard an ad for an EV in this country.

Could be the first time, or could just be the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon.

[tom66]

They are very regularly advertising electric vehicles on TV here.  Leaf, e-Golf,  Outlander PHEV,  i3/i8 etc.
Probably one or two every day that I see.

[mikeselectricstuff]

They are very regularly advertising electric vehicles on TV here.  Leaf, e-Golf,  Outlander PHEV,  i3/i8 etc.
Probably one or two every day that I see.

Also Renault & Hyundai

[james_s]

My point is a blanket statement saying EV=BAD is a generalization that shouldn't be made

maybe that's your world, that's not my world (where 90%+ is Hydroelectric).

My EV starts being CO2 friendlier at 30,000km, and my costing (car+fuel) results in my EV being cheaper overall starting around 60,000km. (and that doesn't take into account lower maintenance costs)

You're trying to use logic to win a religious debate, it's a waste of time. Logic, reason and facts are useless against an emotional belief that is not based on logic in the first place. The belief here is that EV=bad, so any and all evidence against this belief will simply be ignored, deflected, subject changed, move the goalpost, wash, rinse, repeat. It's all entirely predictable by now.

[coppice]

They are very regularly advertising electric vehicles on TV here.  Leaf, e-Golf,  Outlander PHEV,  i3/i8 etc.
Probably one or two every day that I see.

Also Renault & Hyundai

If Hyundai are advertising, its purely image building. They are unable to actually sell you a car right now.

[SilverSolder]

[...] any and all evidence against this belief will simply be ignored [...]

If there is any conclusion possible from this thread so far, it has to be:  Horses for courses!   Blanket statements whether EV=bad or EV=good are very dependent on the assumptions made.

[maginnovision]

I'd agree with that. I much prefer gasoline/petrol cars because EV's aren't suitable. That doesn't mean I think they're BAD, they just aren't good for me. The only religion is the Tesla one. It was either Electrek or CleanTechnica that recently had an article about how Teslarians should stop shit talking every other EV because they're still EV's. Most people not driving them aren't doing so because it doesn't make sense for them. If it makes sense for you, go for it. Shaming other people and claiming everyone who doesn't have one and isn't preaching their greatness thinks they're bad is ridiculous.

[boffin]

They are very regularly advertising electric vehicles on TV here.  Leaf, e-Golf,  Outlander PHEV,  i3/i8 etc.
Probably one or two every day that I see.

Also Renault & Hyundai

If Hyundai are advertising, its purely image building. They are unable to actually sell you a car right now.

you realize the person you just quoted drives an electric Hyundai, right ?

[coppice]

They are very regularly advertising electric vehicles on TV here.  Leaf, e-Golf,  Outlander PHEV,  i3/i8 etc.
Probably one or two every day that I see.

Also Renault & Hyundai

If Hyundai are advertising, its purely image building. They are unable to actually sell you a car right now.

you realize the person you just quoted drives an electric Hyundai, right ?

And the relevance of that is? Try buying one in the UK right now, and you'll be on such a long waiting list you will need another to tide you over until it arrives. The idea that Hyundai would be advertising to drive sales is absurd.

[mikeselectricstuff]

They are very regularly advertising electric vehicles on TV here.  Leaf, e-Golf,  Outlander PHEV,  i3/i8 etc.
Probably one or two every day that I see.

Also Renault & Hyundai

If Hyundai are advertising, its purely image building. They are unable to actually sell you a car right now.

you realize the person you just quoted drives an electric Hyundai, right ?

And the relevance of that is? Try buying one in the UK right now, and you'll be on such a long waiting list you will need another to tide you over until it arrives. The idea that Hyundai would be advertising to drive sales is absurd.

I think the Ioniq is reasonably available but Konas are still very rare, and at least 9 months leadtime. My guess is the advertising is about image building as much as anything.
They do seem to be more available in some other countries though - I've seen reports of some US dealers having some ex-stock

[tom66]

They're also trying to push the PHEV and hybrid Konas like wild;  I've had two calls from Hyundai dealers months after I test drove the PHEV version.

[coppice]

I think the Ioniq is reasonably available but Konas are still very rare, and at least 9 months leadtime. My guess is the advertising is about image building as much as anything.
They do seem to be more available in some other countries though - I've seen reports of some US dealers having some ex-stock

I've heard of low mileage second hand Ioniqs going for more than list price in the UK, which doesn't make them sound very available.

Aren't the ex stock Konas their compliance cars, and only available in certain states?

[mikeselectricstuff]

I think the Ioniq is reasonably available but Konas are still very rare, and at least 9 months leadtime. My guess is the advertising is about image building as much as anything.
They do seem to be more available in some other countries though - I've seen reports of some US dealers having some ex-stock

I've heard of low mileage second hand Ioniqs going for more than list price in the UK, which doesn't make them sound very available.

There are 12 ioniq electrics in the Hyundai used dealer network with under 2K miles, so they are available to some extent if you wanted one now. There is a new version soon, so that may affect availability - the website implies you can still order the 2019.
One factor on the "used more than list" issue is that when used, you don't get the £3500 government grant, so the list price is artificially low when comparing the two.
 

[mikeselectricstuff]

They're also trying to push the PHEV and hybrid Konas like wild;  I've had two calls from Hyundai dealers months after I test drove the PHEV version.

Well they don't need as many batteries to build those, so they can probably make more profit on them at the moment.

[edy]

The Smart Car Electric is the cheapest all-electric I can find here new in Canada. If anyone can tell me differently, please let me know. The Nissan Leaf starts around $40,000. This one seems to be priced just under $30,000:

https://www.smart.com/ca/en/index/smart-eq-fortwo-453.html

We no longer have any incentives in our province of Ontario. You can see the page here:

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/vehicles/electric/electric-vehicle-incentive-program.shtml

They discontinued the incentive, but that is I believe the cheapest all-electric and it's a tiny little car at that. Would be ok for some people who drive about town and don't need anything larger. Is it just me or does their website look incomplete, missing information and pretty opaque in getting answers about many important things:

https://www.smart.com/ca/en/index/smart-eq-fortwo-453/technical-data.html

Google reveals a 93km battery. Here is one of the reviews:

https://www.drivingelectric.com/smart/fortwo-coupe

Now compare to a tiny compact ICE car like the Nissan Micra at about $10,500 for the manual version:

https://www.nissan.ca/buildyournissan/modelLine/build/2019/MIC/?lang=en&tool=model.vlp.build.button

Depending on your driving habits and usage case scenario, again it will have to be factored in.... Save close to $20,000 and by the Micra for ~$10k (4 passenger), or spend $20,000 more and by the cheapest smallest all-electric car that I can find... a Smart Twofor EV for $30k (2 passenger)? What is the return on investment? Purely economic reasons or environmental benefit? Could I put that extra $20k into something more impactful on the environment (e.g. installing a roof-top solar system for my house)?

EV's at least in that low end range are just not anywhere close to being economically reasonable. I understand once you are ready to fork down $80k for a luxury sedan then you may wish to go for a Tesla vs. a Mercedes or BMW.... I get it... But in the low end of the range for normal people, EV's just don't make sense no matter how you cut it.

[sokoloff]

You can get a 2016 (or '15/'14) Smart 451 ED (the prior model) for $6-7K USD (slightly less for the older ones) and the batteries on those models typically experience very little degradation due to very good thermal management. They are 60 mile electrics without much, if any, drama.

[thm_w]

Depending on your driving habits and usage case scenario, again it will have to be factored in.... Save close to $20,000 and by the Micra for ~$10k (4 passenger), or spend $20,000 more and by the cheapest smallest all-electric car that I can find... a Smart Twofor EV for $30k (2 passenger)? What is the return on investment? Purely economic reasons or environmental benefit? Could I put that extra $20k into something more impactful on the environment (e.g. installing a roof-top solar system for my house)?

EV's at least in that low end range are just not anywhere close to being economically reasonable. I understand once you are ready to fork down $80k for a luxury sedan then you may wish to go for a Tesla vs. a Mercedes or BMW.... I get it... But in the low end of the range for normal people, EV's just don't make sense no matter how you cut it.

If you care about financials, you buy a used vehicle and not a new one. If you only buy new things (which has its own environmental impact), then yes the money can be better spent elsewhere (home insulation, solar, etc.).
New EVs prices will still be higher for a while, although VW expects price equalization to come soon for their models.

You can get a 2016 (or '15/'14) Smart 451 ED (the prior model) for $6-7K USD (slightly less for the older ones) and the batteries on those models typically experience very little degradation due to very good thermal management. They are 60 mile electrics without much, if any, drama.

I don't know what their mindset is, price matters but buying a new car is somehow the only option on the table.
BTW I can't see many cases where I'd want a smart over a leaf, you get less space with almost all else being equal (unless the price has come down recently).

[Bud]

Edy leave those EVs to the people who are on a mission to save the planet. 

[edy]

Yes you are correct, buying NEW electric is NOT the way to go. Buy USED and maybe you have a chance. That only proves that there is a huge depreciation on EV's the minute they are driven off the lot. Why do they not retain their value? Or perhaps they were better deals previously when government incentives kicked in and helped subsidize the cost?

I had a look at the Nissan Micra and it turns out they even have a the Nissan Micra Cup in Canada which is the cheapest race league you can participate in. $20,000 gets you the racing version of the Micra, which is still one of the cheapest cars you can buy in Canada ($10k) and for about $40k you can run a whole season on average of racing. That's cheap, and quite fun to drive especially when you get the base manual version!

The Nissan Micra Cup:  https://www.micracup.com/About-Micra-Cup-Nissan-series

ABOUT THE SERIES

Presented by JD Promotion & Competition Inc in collaboration with Nissan Canada, the Nissan Micra® Cup consists of races across six week-ends in Ontario and Quebec. From May to September, over 30 Nissan Micras® are star in this series, unique to Canada.

Each racing weekend includes a 30-minute trial, a 30-minute qualifying session and two 40-minute races. That's over 2 hours of track-time, adrenaline and fun!

And the fun of going through something like this:     (I hope nobody got hurt)

[sokoloff]

BTW I can't see many cases where I'd want a smart over a leaf, you get less space with almost all else being equal (unless the price has come down recently).

The Smart has a much better battery longevity story (liquid cooled, loses capacity very slowly empirically). The Smart is rear drive and "cuter". The uncertainty around Smart's participation in the US market has depressed the prices of used Smarts (and likelihood to buy new ones).

The LEAF is a way better "normal car" and I went to test drive a Smart that my dad was considering buying and then immediately afterwards a LEAF. It was chalk and cheese difference in favor of the LEAF, so I bought one (and my dad bought two Smarts, though not the one I drove).

I'm quite happy with mine, though my LEAF happens to be at Nissan waiting on an EV battery cell replacement [under warranty] at the moment, so I'm not sure my true capacity loss once that's rectified [no pun intended].

[james_s]

Buying new cars is never the way to go, unless you have so much money that it doesn't matter or you really want something specific that is not available used.

If I didn't love my older car so much (and if I still drove much) I'd seriously consider an EV if only to never have to deal with the hassle of getting gas again. I absolutely hate taking a special trip or driving out of my way to get gas and breathing the stinky fumes. If I could just plug in when I get home and have a "full tank" the next morning that would be fantastic. That is the #1 thing all the people I know who have EVs rave about.

[sokoloff]

Yes you are correct, buying NEW electric is NOT the way to go. Buy USED and maybe you have a chance. That only proves that there is a huge depreciation on EV's the minute they are driven off the lot. Why do they not retain their value? Or perhaps they were better deals previously when government incentives kicked in and helped subsidize the cost?

In Massachusetts USA, most new EVs depreciate $10K (in government incentives) the minute the paperwork is signed. Is that really depreciation? I would say it's not, because that money comes into a buyer's pocket in literal cash. So my $35K sticker ($32K signed) ($22K net) car might be worth $12K now. If you go by MSRP, it's lost an eye-watering 65% of value in 4 years. If you go by my actual costs, it's lost a much more reasonable 45% in 4 years.

Interestingly, either of those figures are within the typical range:
https://www.gigacalculator.com/calculators/car-depreciation-calculator.php

[nctnico]

You can get a 2016 (or '15/'14) Smart 451 ED (the prior model) for $6-7K USD (slightly less for the older ones) and the batteries on those models typically experience very little degradation due to very good thermal management. They are 60 mile electrics without much, if any, drama.

However the battery can fail on these cars and then you are 17k euro in the hole for just the battery pack. Fitting a new pack comes on top of that.

I've also read some articles saying Mercedes is going to stop making small cars (including the Smart) because they are not profitable. The same goes for several other major car manufacturers.

[sokoloff]

You can get a 2016 (or '15/'14) Smart 451 ED (the prior model) for $6-7K USD (slightly less for the older ones) and the batteries on those models typically experience very little degradation due to very good thermal management. They are 60 mile electrics without much, if any, drama.

However the battery can fail on these cars and then you are 17k euro in the hole.

Um, unless you're an absolute moron, the worst case is you'd be $6-7K in the hole minus what you could get for scrapping the car (which has easily re-usable body panels due to the design).

[nctnico]

You can get a 2016 (or '15/'14) Smart 451 ED (the prior model) for $6-7K USD (slightly less for the older ones) and the batteries on those models typically experience very little degradation due to very good thermal management. They are 60 mile electrics without much, if any, drama.

However the battery can fail on these cars and then you are 17k euro in the hole.

Um, unless you're an absolute moron, the worst case is you'd be $6-7K in the hole minus what you could get for scrapping the car (which has easily re-usable body panels due to the design).

And how much do you get for a car which doesn't run? $500 tops. At that point it simply is scrap. Or are you seriously suggesting to take the car apart on the street and sell the parts on Ebay one by one?

[sokoloff]

You can get a 2016 (or '15/'14) Smart 451 ED (the prior model) for $6-7K USD (slightly less for the older ones) and the batteries on those models typically experience very little degradation due to very good thermal management. They are 60 mile electrics without much, if any, drama.

However the battery can fail on these cars and then you are 17k euro in the hole.

Um, unless you're an absolute moron, the worst case is you'd be $6-7K in the hole minus what you could get for scrapping the car (which has easily re-usable body panels due to the design).

And how much do you get for a car which doesn't run? $500 tops. At that point it simply is scrap. Or are you seriously suggesting to take the car apart on the street and sell the parts on Ebay one by one?

I like my plan to sell it for $500 for scrap one hell of a lot better than your plan to put a $18K USD battery into it!

[nctnico]

You can get a 2016 (or '15/'14) Smart 451 ED (the prior model) for $6-7K USD (slightly less for the older ones) and the batteries on those models typically experience very little degradation due to very good thermal management. They are 60 mile electrics without much, if any, drama.

However the battery can fail on these cars and then you are 17k euro in the hole.

Um, unless you're an absolute moron, the worst case is you'd be $6-7K in the hole minus what you could get for scrapping the car (which has easily re-usable body panels due to the design).

And how much do you get for a car which doesn't run? $500 tops. At that point it simply is scrap. Or are you seriously suggesting to take the car apart on the street and sell the parts on Ebay one by one?

I like my plan to sell it for $500 for scrap one hell of a lot better than your plan to put a $18K USD battery into it!

But you still lose over $5k. I wouldn't call that an acceptable loss or wise gamble. The bottom line is: buying a (used) EV which doesn't have warranty on the battery is a huge risk because a new battery likely costs several times more than the car is actually worth.

[sokoloff]

But you still lose over $5k. I wouldn't call that an acceptable loss or wise gamble. The bottom line is: buying a (used) EV which doesn't have warranty on the battery is a huge risk.

You can buy two of them for thousands less than what a new one costs. That mitigates the risk significantly, especially since you only need to buy the second one if the first one comes in the worst 0.1% of outcomes.

[nctnico]

But you still lose over $5k. I wouldn't call that an acceptable loss or wise gamble. The bottom line is: buying a (used) EV which doesn't have warranty on the battery is a huge risk.

You can buy two of them for thousands less than what a new one costs. That mitigates the risk significantly, especially since you only need to buy the second one if the first one comes in the worst 0.1% of outcomes.

But how does that compare to buying a car on gas/petrol? $5k buys me a (common) car which I can drive for another 10 years and 100k miles without chance of costly problems. Even if the engine goes bad the costs for a used engine are less than $1k (especially on an older model). Part of buying a car should include risk assessment to look for and avoid potential money sinks. Risk assessment is the main reason I switched from diesel to gas/petrol.

[sokoloff]

If one is overly concerned with the 99.9th percentile worst-case outcome, buying an EV is not for them.
(If you're concerned about those outliers, buying a small, light car is also not a good idea as you're probably statistically much more likely to be involved in an accident than to experience a traction battery failure, so buying a big, heavy tank-like car is a good plan.)

I think we've well established by now that EVs are not for you, for any number of reasons that you've communicated extensively.

[james_s]

I think we've well established by now that EVs are not for you, for any number of reasons that you've communicated extensively.

 

[nctnico]

If one is overly concerned with the 99.9th percentile worst-case outcome, buying an EV is not for them.
(If you're concerned about those outliers, buying a small, light car is also not a good idea as you're probably statistically much more likely to be involved in an accident than to experience a traction battery failure, so buying a big, heavy tank-like car is a good plan.)

That is a rather foolish comparison. Getting into an accident is either your own fault or when it isn't the insurance of the other party will cover your costs. A failure in a battery (or any other manufacturing defect) just happens; it is a roll of the dice.

And by your own admission: your Leaf needs to have the battery fixed. It would be interesting to know how much that would have cost you outside the warranty.

[sokoloff]

If one is overly concerned with the 99.9th percentile worst-case outcome, buying an EV is not for them.
(If you're concerned about those outliers, buying a small, light car is also not a good idea as you're probably statistically much more likely to be involved in an accident than to experience a traction battery failure, so buying a big, heavy tank-like car is a good plan.)

That is a rather foolish comparison. Getting into an accident is either your own fault or when it isn't the insurance of the other party will cover your costs. A failure in a battery (or any other manufacturing defect) just happens; it is a roll of the dice.

The concern I have in an accident is physical injuries to occupants, not cost. I can write a check for any car I own without flinching.
The case of an accident is far more common than a battery fault.

And by your own admission: your Leaf needs to have the battery fixed. It would be interesting to know how much that would have cost you outside the warranty.

I looked into it. It would be about $200-250 for the failed module but unfortunately a strong 8-10 hours of labor and some work near high DC voltage to replace it.
Under the 8 year/100K mile warranty, let Nissan deal with it and keep the warranty intact is the obvious play.

[tom66]

But you still lose over $5k. I wouldn't call that an acceptable loss or wise gamble. The bottom line is: buying a (used) EV which doesn't have warranty on the battery is a huge risk because a new battery likely costs several times more than the car is actually worth.

Er, but if the battery fails (which it's very unlikely to do so outright, but let's go with that) then you'd be able to buy another Smart for $6k.
Only an idiot would buy a ~$18k battery for a $6k car. 

[maginnovision]

But you still lose over $5k. I wouldn't call that an acceptable loss or wise gamble. The bottom line is: buying a (used) EV which doesn't have warranty on the battery is a huge risk because a new battery likely costs several times more than the car is actually worth.

Er, but if the battery fails (which it's very unlikely to do so outright, but let's go with that) then you'd be able to buy another Smart for $6k.
Only an idiot would buy a ~$18k battery for a $6k car.

Unless you needed the car to be reliable, then it may be better to go new. A new battery would have a warranty so you're covered if anything were to happen sooner than later.

Some people do run into those situations where a small chance of an issue keeps getting them. My mom had this issue with one of her cars 15 years ago or so. One after the other until giving up on that make/model. The odds are low but if it happens then a person might be reasonably risk averse and avoid the chance of that issue entirely. We've all had batteries, rechargeable or not, die on us. Obviously nico doesn't like that and would rather prepare for worst case.

[james_s]

I've known multiple people who bought brand new cars that early on spent more time in the shop than they did on the road so new is no guarantee. These days I think most cars are more reliable than they were 30 years ago, although far more difficult and expensive to fix. I don't think I will ever own a car newer than about 2005 and even that is well into the era of bloat.

[EEVblog]

I've known multiple people who bought brand new cars that early on spent more time in the shop than they did on the road so new is no guarantee.

My brand new Holden (Opal) Vectra was horrible. No less than 7 major cooling system faults, including having to get the entire engine block re-machined, blown timing belt, faulty sensors that ground the car to a halt, and a whole bunch of smaller stuff. Sure quite a lot of it got fixed under warranty, but it was constantly breaking down and so inconvenient to get fixed. Had to get it towed several times.
In about 8 years the car had become a "death trap" (the exact words used by my mechanic) and was traded in for $750.

[maginnovision]

I've known multiple people who bought brand new cars that early on spent more time in the shop than they did on the road so new is no guarantee. These days I think most cars are more reliable than they were 30 years ago, although far more difficult and expensive to fix. I don't think I will ever own a car newer than about 2005 and even that is well into the era of bloat.

I was strictly talking a new battery. It's true though, sometimes you get a lemon.

[coppice]

My brand new Holden (Opal) Vectra was horrible.

That's what most people find. Why does anyone buy them? There is lots of material on line about GM's withdrawal from Europe, but none of it gets to the basic point that over the decades Opal product development went down hill very badly.

[mikerj]

I've known multiple people who bought brand new cars that early on spent more time in the shop than they did on the road so new is no guarantee.

My brand new Holden (Opal) Vectra was horrible. No less than 7 major cooling system faults, including having to get the entire engine block re-machined, blown timing belt, faulty sensors that ground the car to a halt, and a whole bunch of smaller stuff. Sure quite a lot of it got fixed under warranty, but it was constantly breaking down and so inconvenient to get fixed. Had to get it towed several times.
In about 8 years the car had become a "death trap" (the exact words used by my mechanic) and was traded in for $750.

The same (Vauxhall branded) car in the UK was a pile of crap as well.

[SilverSolder]

I've known multiple people who bought brand new cars that early on spent more time in the shop than they did on the road so new is no guarantee. These days I think most cars are more reliable than they were 30 years ago, although far more difficult and expensive to fix. I don't think I will ever own a car newer than about 2005 and even that is well into the era of bloat.

Agree about the bloat.  That said, moving a lot of the precision functionality into electronics (instead of mechanical components) is a net reliability plus.  For example, an engine management system has a very good chance of keeping an engine more or less in perfect tune for hundreds of thousands of miles.  Compare that with the bad old days of points/condensers, carburetters, etc. which needed constant tweaking to keep things humming smoothly.  Of course, the trade-off is that the car has become harder to understand...  so if something does go wrong, you need to know more than before.

[james_s]

Agree about the bloat.  That said, moving a lot of the precision functionality into electronics (instead of mechanical components) is a net reliability plus.  For example, an engine management system has a very good chance of keeping an engine more or less in perfect tune for hundreds of thousands of miles.  Compare that with the bad old days of points/condensers, carburetters, etc. which needed constant tweaking to keep things humming smoothly.  Of course, the trade-off is that the car has become harder to understand...  so if something does go wrong, you need to know more than before.

There's a very large gap between points/condensers/carburetors and modern bloat. Even my '84 is injected with electronic ignition, the last cars sold in the US with a carburetor were very low end stuff I think up to 1990 when injection was mandated and by the mid 90s engine management had matured to a quite modern state. I think the early to mid 90s are about the pinnacle of automotive engineering where all the modern useful tech and creature comforts had been developed but they hadn't all become bloated luxury cars.

Whenever I drive a newish car I'm shocked at the amount of useless gadgets and technology for the sake of technology. Nice cleanly laid out tactile switches replaced by silly touchscreens with multi-level menus, integrated entertainment gadgets that encourage people to focus on doing anything other than driving the car, and then various electronic nags that try to mitigate that but just end up being annoying. The simple and highly effective mixer valve has been universally replaced by hokey climate control systems that love to turn the fan up to full blast and utterly fail at the futile task of regulating the cabin temperature of an uninsulated greenhouse when they should be regulating the air temperature coming out the vents since that's primarily what you feel. Then there's the pretty much universally horrible visibility requiring a bunch of cameras and electronic aides when simply having large windows, narrower pillars and lower beltlines would accomplish far more. Bumpers are a thing of the past and the entire front and back ends of the car are sacrificial structures that are enormously expensive to repair after even a minor accident. I feel like cars have gone far into form over function and it keeps getting worse.

[sokoloff]

Bumpers are a thing of the past and the entire front and back ends of the car are sacrificial structures that are enormously expensive to repair after even a minor accident. I feel like cars have gone far into form over function and it keeps getting worse.

Cars also get much better fuel mileage (in part from aero improvements) and are much more survivable in accidents (due in part to improved crumple zone design and energy absorption). It's quite likely that the fuel savings from improved mpg more than pays for the higher crash damage figures from minor accidents (not for everyone who has an accident, but on a fleet-wide basis).

I don't love that lots of cars all look the same and don't love the gee-whizary in lots of new cars, but there are some advantages that have come from body-integrated bumpers alongside the negatives.

[james_s]

It's entirely possible to have excellent safety and good aerodynamics without having fake bumpers that are body painted flimsy plastic panels with all kinds of expensive stuff directly in/behind them. I would gladly give up some of the heavy bloat in exchange for having real bumpers that are shock mounted like the ones on my Volvo. It has crumple zones and a legendary safety record but the bumpers are sturdy and mounted on gas shocks, multiple times I have been hit hard enough that it practically destroyed the car that hit me with only a bit of paint transfer on mine. Sure I only get 25 mpg but I suspect that's largely down to the engine being a modest refinement of a rather utilitarian 1975 design.

[tom66]

I've managed to get my hands on an e-Golf for a 24 hour test drive.

Initial impressions are good.  The off-the-line torque is much better than my GTE and the lack of gear shifts mean that the car puts down some serious torque for quite some time.  Output power is around 140hp so about 33% less than my GTE in sport-hybrid mode.   

I'm about to go 90 miles from home with the intention of using a fast charger at a nearby restaurant.  The claimed range is 120 miles.  This will be my first long-distance EV drive so I'm slightly nervous, but I think it'll all be fine.

It didn't help that the dealer didn't include any Type2 cable with the loan car. I was able to use mine, but it was only rated at 16 amps. So 3.6kW max charge rate.  They eventually found a Type2 32A cable (3ph as well, although the e-Golf doesn't support it, but it makes it heavy) which unlocked the full 7.2kW onboard charge rate.

I've got about a 1000ft climb up the Pennines, but back down again, which should be an interesting test. I'll keep the speed to ACC at 75 mph.

[sokoloff]

If you start projecting to come up a little short at 75 mph, slowing to 70 or 65 mph will pretty dramatically increase the range (saving you time on balance).

[tom66]

Well, I made it both ways with 25% of battery remaining so range seems pretty much dead on.

Fast charger was able to 100% charge car in time for first course at restaurant. (Quite a decent one as well.)

15.9kWh/100km on way there at 70-75 mph average
18.2kWh/100km on way back at 80 mph+ (uh, no, officer, just below that)

Total cost of 160 miles was £7 - or 4.3p/mile.

You have to plan a little bit more, but I think once every restaurant/point of interest has a fast charger & banks of 7kW type2 sockets, it'll be hard to argue against EVs being equally convenient, even with ranges around 150 miles.  Personally I'd like a 200 mile range EV, but could live with a 150 mile one.  e-Golf is probably a little short for now, but almost there.

[maginnovision]

Those are absolutely massive average speed numbers. I can't manage that going to Vegas in my gas engine vehicle. The acceleration must be god like.

[mikeselectricstuff]

Those are absolutely massive average speed numbers. I can't manage that going to Vegas in my gas engine vehicle. The acceleration must be god like.

Outside of very busy times, 70-80mph is a very realistic avarage speed on most UK motorways

[tom66]

Yes, I stopped three times in total because the restaurant was off the A55, and the route was M56+M60+M62 so pretty much all free flowing interchanges which can all be done at 70 mph. Also I live about 1 mile from the M62.
 
With the ACC on the car, just sit back, let the cruise control do the work, when you feel the acceleration starting to reduce, check mirrors & indicate and the cruise control automatically accelerates for you (not sure if this is standard on other cars but the VW-Audi system is fantastic.)

Sadly I only had the car for 24hr, so had to hand keys back, but definitely a good car.

Will see if I can get an i3 loaner as that's probably the most compelling "available" EV right now (given Model 3, Kona, and ID have huge order books.)

One interesting thing is that when the e-Golf gets below 25% it seems to force you into an eco mode that limits top speed to 75 mph and climate control to about 1kW total.  I hit this on the last few miles of the journey. It might be possible to override it. When I pulled in the total power limit was at 90%.

But I found that the climate control at 18'C was fine for both me and SWMBO with the heated seats making up for this.   Not sure if this model had the heat pump. Think it's standard so I assume so.  But maximum power consumption with climate on Hi was 6kW which makes for quite a chunky compressor if so (~48000 BTU?); that's about the same as my GTE which doesn't have a heatpump.  Perhaps it has a resistive heater as a boost so that the air con system doesn't need to be quite as powerful, and it runs the heatpump as much as possible.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

And the cabin fan is at least 300 .. 400W, and the condenser fan (outside) another so much. Don't ask me why but still today most cars tend control the fan speeds with beefy resistors in series so the fan in low does not consume as much less as it should.

[tom66]

And the cabin fan is at least 300 .. 400W, and the condenser fan (outside) another so much. Don't ask me why but still today most cars tend control the fan speeds with beefy resistors in series so the fan in low does not consume as much less as it should.

I can confirm the cabin fan on my Golf GTE pulls about 150W on full speed (and the airflow is faster than any other car I've owned) and it is PWM controlled according to the service manual.  Normally just using on the lower two speeds is sufficient, which probably means around 20-30W usage.

At normal driving speed, the condenser fan shuts off. It's only used when in traffic and extra airflow is needed over the condenser.

There is a small software bug/limitation I've noticed with this though.  The car will turn on the condenser/engine fan immediately when you request air con if you are stationary. As soon as the car moves, it switches off - until it determines it has warmed too much. I'm not sure why they don't switch it on when a condenser temperature setpoint is reached (therefore it probably wouldn't be needed for at least 5 minutes of stationary usage), but perhaps they feel the need to start airflow immediately when stationary.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

WOW that's a tiny fan, in my Kuga it's 344W according to autodoc.de.

[bdunham7]

WOW that's a tiny fan, in my Kuga it's 344W according to autodoc.de.

For the HVAC fan, not the condenser fan?  That would be 24.5 amps continuous at 14V, a bit more on startup.  How big is the fuse for the circuit?

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

WOW that's a tiny fan, in my Kuga it's 344W according to autodoc.de.

For the HVAC fan, not the condenser fan?  That would be 24.5 amps continuous at 14V, a bit more on startup.  How big is the fuse for the circuit?

IDK, must be more than that :-) look: https://www.autodoc.de/search?keyword=8EW+351+150-611

[tom66]

The Kuga is a fairly large car with large rear seating.  Perhaps like my Golf it has rear vents. You may find you can turn those off, which will reduce the power consumption of the fan for any given required airflow. (It should also slightly improve the efficiency of heating or air con, although probably not all that much.)

[bdunham7]

WOW that's a tiny fan, in my Kuga it's 344W according to autodoc.de.

For the HVAC fan, not the condenser fan?  That would be 24.5 amps continuous at 14V, a bit more on startup.  How big is the fuse for the circuit?

IDK, must be more than that :-) look: https://www.autodoc.de/search?keyword=8EW+351+150-611

(Attachment Link)

I'm not doubting your ability to read (although you did miss a bit... ) I'm wondering where the number comes from.  An HVAC fan with that continuous power would be pretty powerful.  Checking the fuse rating will sort of tell you whether that number is real or means something else or is an outright error.  Perhaps your fan is a monster!

[coppice]

I have a 16" fan across the room from me. It creates a blast of air stronger than anything in a car, and consumes about 45W. Why do these car fans consume 344W?

[nctnico]

I have a 16" fan across the room from me. It creates a blast of air stronger than anything in a car, and consumes about 45W. Why do these car fans consume 344W?

It (obviously) is a typo. Webshops are the worst places to get good technical information for parts.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

The fuse is #1 40 amps, or #10 30 amps, I'm not sure both say fan.

Edit: 40 amps is the radiator/condenser (outside) fan, 30 amps the cabin/evaporator (interior) fan.

An HVAC fan with that continuous power would be pretty powerful.  Checking the fuse rating will sort of tell you whether that number is real or means something else or is an outright error.  Perhaps your fan is a monster!

Yes it is pretty powerful, a monster. Very good for the summers in the south of España.

[maginnovision]

Those are absolutely massive average speed numbers. I can't manage that going to Vegas in my gas engine vehicle. The acceleration must be god like.

Outside of very busy times, 70-80mph is a very realistic avarage speed on most UK motorways

For a motorway, ok. I thought this was for the trip which usually includes non-highway/motorway driving. Most places I go I can do 90-100mph on the highway and still not manage 70-80mph for the actual trip.

[james_s]

I have a 16" fan across the room from me. It creates a blast of air stronger than anything in a car, and consumes about 45W. Why do these car fans consume 344W?

Because they have to push air through a compact high density AC evaporator and heater core, through small twisty-turny ducts, dampers and vents. It takes a lot more energy to push enough air through the HVAC system in a car, there is nowhere near enough space for efficient ducting.

[amspire]

I'm still looking for a used LEAF...

This one is probably going cheap:

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

This is Leach's boss: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=carlos+ghosn+arrested

[EEVblog]

I'm still looking for a used LEAF...

This one is probably going cheap:

 

[Bud]

If Nissan said the battery was fine why was the offer to replace the battery. If it was not the battery and some fault in the system what was the point to replace the battery, how would that  help. This story is shady.

[sokoloff]

I had a much better service/warranty experience on mine.

[coppice]

If Nissan said the battery was fine why was the offer to replace the battery. If it was not the battery and some fault in the system what was the point to replace the battery, how would that  help. This story is shady.

I think this is a huge problem with electric car warranties right now. The industry needs some kind of standards for what constitutes a normally degraded battery, and what constitutes an unreasonably degraded battery. Without that, warranties are meaningless. "Your battery is fine according to our proprietary internal rather arbitrary criteria" is no basis for a proper interaction between supplier and customer.

[mikeselectricstuff]

According to this, Nissan is offering battery replacement for $6-8K US depending on size
https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/nissan-leaf-battery-pack-replacement-program/

So not sure how they got ot $30K, though I've heard some stories of very poor service from Nissan.
But warranties are part of the contract of sale, so if the facts are as stated, shouldn't be hard to win in court for failure to honour the warranty.

[sokoloff]

I would have to work hard to get less than 3.5 miles per kWh in my LEAF in typical usage.
I typically get 4.2-4.3 miles per kWh in the summer and 4.0-4.1 per kWh in the winter.

(Those are "from the battery" numbers; to get to "from the plug" numbers, probably decrease 10%.)

[mikeselectricstuff]

I had a much better service/warranty experience on mine.

Did they pay for the fuel you used on the loan car ?

[SilverSolder]

I've attempted to graph the efficiencies/costs of electric vs gasoline, taking the price of energy into account.

Basically, each vehicle corresponds to a line on the graph depending on its fuel economy (find the closest match for an idea of where a specific make/model fits in the picture).

Interestingly, it doesn't seem to be clear cut that electric always beats gasoline on energy costs...  it depends on the make and model of vehicle.  A Prius appears to be very competitive with electric...  at least in the range of US based energy prices considered.

[sokoloff]

I had a much better service/warranty experience on mine.

Did they pay for the fuel you used on the loan car ?

No; why would they? That's energy that I used for my benefit.
I guess you could argue that the miles I drove specifically to/from the dealer in the loaner should be "their obligation", but that's miniscule. Or that I was previously motoring for $0.05/mile and now was in a car that took $0.08/mile. Across 400 miles, that cost me $12 extra, hardly worth mentioning.

I bought gas twice in the three week period (including right before returning it). It was a reminder of how nice it is to not have to have done that very often in the last 4.5 years.

[thm_w]

I've attempted to graph the efficiencies/costs of electric vs gasoline, taking the price of energy into account.

Basically, each vehicle corresponds to a line on the graph depending on its fuel economy (find the closest match for an idea of where a specific make/model fits in the picture).

Interestingly, it doesn't seem to be clear cut that electric always beats gasoline on energy costs...  it depends on the make and model of vehicle.  A Prius appears to be very competitive with electric...  at least in the range of US based energy prices considered.

Nice graph, for here gas costs are off the top of the scale ($4.30/gal) and electricity cost is off the bottom (9c/kWh) 

[SilverSolder]

I've attempted to graph the efficiencies/costs of electric vs gasoline, taking the price of energy into account.

Basically, each vehicle corresponds to a line on the graph depending on its fuel economy (find the closest match for an idea of where a specific make/model fits in the picture).

Interestingly, it doesn't seem to be clear cut that electric always beats gasoline on energy costs...  it depends on the make and model of vehicle.  A Prius appears to be very competitive with electric...  at least in the range of US based energy prices considered.

Nice graph, for here gas costs are off the top of the scale ($4.30/gal) and electricity cost is off the bottom (9c/kWh) 

Lucky!   

[EEVblog]

According to this, Nissan is offering battery replacement for $6-8K US depending on size
https://electrek.co/2018/03/26/nissan-leaf-battery-pack-replacement-program/

So not sure how they got ot $30K, though I've heard some stories of very poor service from Nissan.
But warranties are part of the contract of sale, so if the facts are as stated, shouldn't be hard to win in court for failure to honour the warranty.

We have very good consumer protection laws here, so yeah, likely to win if pushed.
Should there be a government mandated battery pack recycling program?

[linux-works]

I finally joined the ev club.

I'm still in an apartment and there's no charging here; but I'm going to see what its like to survive on (mostly) free work-based charging and supplimental supercharging.

at work, we charge at about 25mi/hour and we have 2 hour slots.  if the queue empties up and you want another slot, its ok to take one.  after 5.30pm, most of the stalls are open, as well.

I work at an EV company and wanted to know, first-hand, what the pros and cons are.  I'll certainly learn the direct way via 'eating your own dogfood'

ultimately, I want to get a house and garage, but that won't happen for a while; so I'll live the life of a non-home charger and see if its manageable enough.

the supercharger sites around the bay area are plentiful.  its a peaceful and quiet 'fill-up'.  a half hour will put almost half the charge into my model 3; and there's no gas smell, people are not coming and going like they would at a gas station and its actually not all that bad to sit there for half an hour and do work on a laptop or go to a coffee shop nearby, etc.

my last 2 supercharger costs were about $5 each and they gave me about 1/3 of a 'tank'.  seems quite cheap to me, actually.  fill-ups here tend to be closer to $70 for gas on a 16 gallon car tank.

[SilverSolder]

Should there be a government mandated battery pack recycling program?

Pretty much everything on a car is subject to government mandated recycling...  from the material the bumpers are made of, and everything between!

Battery packs won't be able to escape from the realities of waste management; there will be programs in place, eventually (when we get to the stage where the car parc has a significant numbers of older vehicles).

[SilverSolder]

  fill-ups here tend to be closer to $70 for gas on a 16 gallon car tank.

$4.38 per gallon?

[mikeselectricstuff]

Should there be a government mandated battery pack recycling program?

No need - the batteries have enough value as grid/home storage that they're not going to end up in landfill.
Nissan and Renault already have battery re-use programmes, and Renault's battery lease model means they will usually get them back.

[nctnico]

Should there be a government mandated battery pack recycling program?

No need - the batteries have enough value as grid/home storage that they're not going to end up in landfill.

I'd like to see some real numbers on that. Usually there is not much remaining life in a worn Li-ion cell to make it worthwhile to use in grid storage. A Li-ion cells deteriorates exponentially as a function of the number of charge / discharge cycles. Also the use case for grid storage may be better served using a different kind of cell (there are a gazillion different Li-ion cells out there each with pros & cons to meet a certain use case). Last but not least: to put a mass-product in the market you need a steady supply of equal quality raw materials in order to keep the manufacturing process going smoothly and achieve a constant quality level for the end product. All in all re-using worn li-ion cells from EVs sounds like a myth to me.

[thm_w]

I'd like to see some real numbers on that. Usually there is not much remaining life in a worn Li-ion cell to make it worthwhile to use in grid storage. A Li-ion cells deteriorates exponentially as a function of the number of charge / discharge cycles. Also the use case for grid storage may be better served using a different kind of cell (there are a gazillion different Li-ion cells out there each with pros & cons to meet a certain use case). Last but not least: to put a mass-product in the market you need a steady supply of equal quality raw materials in order to keep the manufacturing process going smoothly and achieve a constant quality level for the end product. All in all re-using worn li-ion cells from EVs sounds like a myth to me.

If you can keep the DOD low, maximum voltage and temperature down, then the response is almost linear.

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Modeling-of-Lithium-Ion-Battery-Degradation-for-Xu-Oudalov/09b0c41c2f131e1acebd65297799990368cc3cab
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41601-018-0076-2 (lifepo4 40% DOD)
https://web.calce.umd.edu/batteries/projects.html (lifepo4, 20-80%)

[nctnico]

I see now I wasn't very clear. By numbers I mean actual battery packs you can buy which are made from used battery cells from EVs. I know the idea of re-using cells is popular but if you dig deeper into how the actual production process should look like there are many issues to be solved. I have a feeling that it makes much more sense to recycle the batteries into raw materials and make new cells from those materials.

[linux-works]

  fill-ups here tend to be closer to $70 for gas on a 16 gallon car tank.

$4.38 per gallon?

california prices, yes, often exceed $4/gallon. 

[maginnovision]

About 4.70 here right now. Still not as bad as 08.

[Miyuki]

About 4.70 here right now. Still not as bad as 08.

That is damn cheap when seen from Europe 
We have 5 - 6 All the time

And for battery reusing, I am in contact with people doing it for domestic use
It depends on chemistry:
LiFePo4 gain resistance over time, so cannot supply power for car but remain capacity for grid storage for ages
LiTiO have unlimited cycles but aggressive electrolyte and die after some time even without cycling
Most LiIon chemistries have problem with uneven cells aging, so must be disassembled and sorted for good ones and bad ones, and even as commonly dont have that much cycle life, for classic grid storage with one cycle per day it is still many years of life for this refurbished cells

[SilverSolder]

$2.50 is realistic on the East Coast at the moment, so the incentive for an electric car is not great, sadly, as a Prius will pretty much match an electric car when fuel is so cheap.

Prices hit about $4.00 in '08,  people were so angry we came close to a second Boston Tea Party! 

[nctnico]

Most LiIon chemistries have problem with uneven cells aging, so must be disassembled and sorted for good ones and bad ones, and even as commonly dont have that much cycle life, for classic grid storage with one cycle per day it is still many years of life for this refurbished cells

One cycle a day means 365 cycles per year. Many cells are specified at 500 to 1000 cycles to a degradation of 80% or even 70%. After that the capacity diminishes rapidly with each cycle. So maybe you'll get an average of 30% of the original capacity in the next 400 cycles or so. Many years is likely to be just one year.

[Miyuki]

Most LiIon chemistries have problem with uneven cells aging, so must be disassembled and sorted for good ones and bad ones, and even as commonly dont have that much cycle life, for classic grid storage with one cycle per day it is still many years of life for this refurbished cells

One cycle a day means 365 cycles per year. Many cells are specified at 500 to 1000 cycles to a degradation of 80% or even 70%. After that the capacity diminishes rapidly with each cycle. So maybe you'll get an average of 30% of the original capacity in the next 400 cycles or so. Many years is likely to be just one year.

But this is cycles with heavy over and under charging as used in consumer equipment with high currents
Storage use very low currents C2-5 at moderate temperatures say up to 35°C and keeping voltage reasonable you are again in thousands of cycles
Plus degradation is more or less linear, reason why common battery packs diminishes capacity quickly is because they do not use voltage monitoring and balancing, cells are very sensitive to voltage at booth sides of charge and without "expensive" monitoring at charging and discharging can be killed really quick

In most devices with single cell is degradation caused mostly by temperature with quick charging
In multicell mostly by lack of balance and protection circuit + sometimes complicated temperature management as we can see at some EVs

I borrow here one picture

with lower current is life even longer
4.2-3V range seems reasonable for most cells

And most devices ramp voltage much higher


With this in mind you can use storage for ages
Batteries without cell level monitoring or just basic charge ballancer have really short cycle life

//edited image

[thm_w]

One cycle a day means 365 cycles per year. Many cells are specified at 500 to 1000 cycles to a degradation of 80% or even 70%. After that the capacity diminishes rapidly with each cycle. So maybe you'll get an average of 30% of the original capacity in the next 400 cycles or so. Many years is likely to be just one year.

Not really sure why you posted this when I quoted you with links pointing out this is not always the case.

I don't disagree its going to be hard to re-use car packs, but at least post some scientific data to back up your claims.

[nctnico]

One cycle a day means 365 cycles per year. Many cells are specified at 500 to 1000 cycles to a degradation of 80% or even 70%. After that the capacity diminishes rapidly with each cycle. So maybe you'll get an average of 30% of the original capacity in the next 400 cycles or so. Many years is likely to be just one year.

Not really sure why you posted this when I quoted you with links pointing out this is not always the case.

I don't disagree its going to be hard to re-use car packs, but at least post some scientific data to back up your claims.

That doesn't matter. Nobody is going to scrap an EV battery which still has over 70% or 80% (*) of it's rated capacity. For home storage you'd typically install a pack which is as small (cheap) as possible. In turn this means this pack will be fully charged and discharged every day. Likely there will be a financial optimum to charge and discharge less than full capacity but it still means that starting with heavily degraded cells a home storage unit will need to be way oversized (and heavy) compared to using brand new cells.

* Whatever is specified by the manufacturer.

[sleemanj]

Prices hit about $4.00 in '08,  people were so angry we came close to a second Boston Tea Party! 

Heaven!  Here in NZ converted to US units currently the cheapest really-only-recommended-for-your-lawn-mower 91  will cost about $5 US per Gallon, and 98 will be at least $6 US per Gallon.

[SilverSolder]

Prices hit about $4.00 in '08,  people were so angry we came close to a second Boston Tea Party! 

Heaven!  Here in NZ converted to US units currently the cheapest really-only-recommended-for-your-lawn-mower 91  will cost about $5 US per Gallon, and 98 will be at least $6 US per Gallon.

In the US, gasoline typically has octane ratings of 87 (regular), 88–90 (midgrade), and 91–94 (premium).   98 octane is the subject of hot rod fantasy dreams! 

87 octane is probably just right for the Ford Model T,  with its compression ratio of 4.5 to 1...

[boffin]

Prices hit about $4.00 in '08,  people were so angry we came close to a second Boston Tea Party! 

Heaven!  Here in NZ converted to US units currently the cheapest really-only-recommended-for-your-lawn-mower 91  will cost about $5 US per Gallon, and 98 will be at least $6 US per Gallon.

In the US, gasoline typically has octane ratings of 87 (regular), 88–90 (midgrade), and 91–94 (premium).   98 octane is the subject of hot rod fantasy dreams! 

87 octane is probably just right for the Ford Model T,  with its compression ratio of 4.5 to 1...

Octane is measured differently in North America vs Europe. (RON or R is the Research Octane Number,  MON is the Motor Octane Number)

in North America; it's   R+M / 2
whereas the rest of the world uses R alone.

This results in European numbers being typically 5-6 higher than the north american numbers.

[sleemanj]

In the US, gasoline typically has octane ratings of 87 (regular), 88–90 (midgrade), and 91–94 (premium).   98 octane is the subject of hot rod fantasy dreams! 

87 octane is probably just right for the Ford Model T,  with its compression ratio of 4.5 to 1...

As per boffin, 98 in NZ is equivalent about 93-94 for you guys in the US, our 91 is equivalent to your 87.

We can also get 95 (equiv 90), and in a few places 100 (equiv 95-96) if you're in a spendy mood.

[SilverSolder]

Octane is measured differently in North America vs Europe. (RON or R is the Research Octane Number,  MON is the Motor Octane Number)

in North America; it's   R+M / 2
whereas the rest of the world uses R alone.

This results in European numbers being typically 5-6 higher than the north american numbers.

Interesting, another opportunity for the USA to get on board with modern units of measurement...   once we're done with Fahrenheit, inches, quarts, teaspoons, cups, and the like!  :-)

[orion242]

Is there any solid data on how the long the batteries last and what the replacement costs are?

Seen a few cases now showing quotes to replace in excess of $30K.  If that's the case, its a death sentence for the car.  If the battery is 50% the cost of the car, its going to need to last the lifetime of a normal ICE which these days 200K miles isn't uncommon.  Replacing an engine or trany is a nothing burger compared to $30K and either of those are likely a trip to the crusher for ICE.

First hint of the cost


Digging a bit on the googles, came across a telsa forum post with about the same cost out of warranty.  One could replace ICE engine and trany for less, yet no one would.

[maginnovision]

I'm more curious to see how much registration costs go up here when they decide the lack of gas taxes for electric cars isn't working anymore. I'd assume a couple thousand dollars a year. Right now it's just another subsidy.

[orion242]

Gas tax money will not be lost, that's for sure.

They will get from some other bucket, bet it registration, tolls, property, income...whatever.  Taxes almost never go down, something has to maintain the roads or wasted on whatever it is currently.

[tszaboo]

Anyone still wondering: The VW e-golf is now 300 EUR per month for leasing. Regular golf is 400 EUR
Which happened even faster than I predicted.

[coppice]

Anyone still wondering: The VW e-golf is now 300 EUR per month for leasing. Regular golf is 400 EUR
Which happened even faster than I predicted.

Interesting. Are you comparing similar trim levels for the Golf and the e-Golf? I just tried looking at the VW UK web site. I don't know how the base trim of the Golf compares to the trim of the e-Golf, but they give £596.82 rental in advance and £198.94 per month over 36 months for the base Golf, and £1,876.62 rental in advance and £312.77 per month over 36 months for the e-Golf.

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/offers-and-finance/finance-calculator#!/view/screen-2?servicePlan=NOPLAN&rentalsInAdvance=3&annualMileage=10&periodOfMonths=36&modelId=30316&trimId=30316-11356&derivativeId=BQ137V-2020-GPDAPDA-GPF2PF2-GPLAPLA-GPNDPND-GPRCPRC-GPU2PU2-GPX1PX1-GWD1WD1-GW9GW9G-GYOIYOI-GYOWYOW-GZEDZED-MCDR7RE-MNES8WH-MAUD9WX&pageIndex=0&customerType=business

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/offers-and-finance/finance-calculator#!/view/screen-2?servicePlan=NOPLAN&rentalsInAdvance=6&annualMileage=10&periodOfMonths=36&modelId=30316&trimId=30316-2986&derivativeId=BE23D1-2020-MASMGM2-GPF3PF3-GPLAPLA-GWD1WD1-GW18W18-GW19W19-GYOZYOZ-MASE6XQ-MEPH7X2-MSBR8SK&pageIndex=0&customerType=business

[maginnovision]

I am told I have to contact a dealer to get any pricing details

[tszaboo]

It is the "from" price for both cars. The e-golf base price is more expensive at 34KEUR vs 29KEUR, I guess you save everything on the tax + service and whatnot. I've read somewhere in the news, that they have huge deals on the e-golf in Germany, since the id3 will be so much better deal.

[coppice]

It is the "from" price for both cars. The e-golf base price is more expensive at 34KEUR vs 29KEUR, I guess you save everything on the tax + service and whatnot. I've read somewhere in the news, that they have huge deals on the e-golf in Germany, since the id3 will be so much better deal.

The base trim often varies between countries, but in the UK the Golf starts at £22k, and the e-Golf at £31k. Perhaps what you are seeing is clearance sale prices for an overstock e-Golfs. Its interesting if that is the case, considering the serious under-supply of many interesting electrics cars right now.

[boffin]

Is there any solid data on how the long the batteries last and what the replacement costs are?

Seen a few cases now showing quotes to replace in excess of $30K.  If that's the case, its a death sentence for the car.  If the battery is 50% the cost of the car, its going to need to last the lifetime of a normal ICE which these days 200K miles isn't uncommon.  Replacing an engine or trany is a nothing burger compared to $30K and either of those are likely a trip to the crusher for ICE.

First hint of the cost


Digging a bit on the googles, came across a telsa forum post with about the same cost out of warranty.  One could replace ICE engine and trany for less, yet no one would.

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison.

To put it in perspective, there's a common Mercedes engine that fails commonly with bad head-bolts, and the replacement/install price is US $57k

[boffin]

Anyone still wondering: The VW e-golf is now 300 EUR per month for leasing. Regular golf is 400 EUR
Which happened even faster than I predicted.

Well, of course you're not explaining why that is; so I'll explain to the people here.
On a 4 year lease, you're still required to pay 100% of the registration taxes for hat new car (on the full price).
On the gasoline model it's 20+% in the Netherlands, whereas on an electric it's currently only 4%.

But being transparent about the numbers you project in your anti-ev sentiment has never been one of your strong suits, has it.

Here are the retail prices for VWs in the Netherlands

Volkswagen Golf Highline Vanaf €28.775
Volkswagen Golf e-Golf CTA Vanaf €34.296

The EV continues to be 5k+ more expensive than the gasoline variant, and there's so huge demand in Europe that VW's new electric production (ID) is already sold out for the 1st two years IIRC.

[SilverSolder]

I'm looking forward to all the ICE bargains as they become obsolete!

[maginnovision]

I'm looking forward to all the ICE bargains as they become obsolete!

Hell yea, make them obsolete and get rid of smog. I'll get my supras back, and the new one!

[tszaboo]

Anyone still wondering: The VW e-golf is now 300 EUR per month for leasing. Regular golf is 400 EUR
Which happened even faster than I predicted.

Well, of course you're not explaining why that is; so I'll explain to the people here.
On a 4 year lease, you're still required to pay 100% of the registration taxes for hat new car (on the full price).
On the gasoline model it's 20+% in the Netherlands, whereas on an electric it's currently only 4%.

But being transparent about the numbers you project in your anti-ev sentiment has never been one of your strong suits, has it.

Here are the retail prices for VWs in the Netherlands

Volkswagen Golf Highline Vanaf €28.775
Volkswagen Golf e-Golf CTA Vanaf €34.296

The EV continues to be 5k+ more expensive than the gasoline variant, and there's so huge demand in Europe that VW's new electric production (ID) is already sold out for the 1st two years IIRC.

I'm pro EV. I'm not pro Tesla. And I actually wrote down the prices above.
Yes, taxes are definitely changing the habit's of people, and what kind of cars they are driving. Here it forces people to drive tiny cars. In Denmark , the car tax is 105% and 180% (not a typo), and everyone is driving shitboxes. In Belgium everyone goes for leased company car, as it is (almost) tax free income.
My point is that suddenly here it is more economical to have an EV than an ICE, from the same model, probably very similar package. Without magic calculations about km/year, graphs when is it more economical. It is plain simple, EV is suddenly cheaper to own than the ICE.

The base trim often varies between countries, but in the UK the Golf starts at £22k, and the e-Golf at £31k. Perhaps what you are seeing is clearance sale prices for an overstock e-Golfs. Its interesting if that is the case, considering the serious under-supply of many interesting electrics cars right now.

Sure, I've even seen the same cars sold with different engine in different countries.

[nctnico]

My point is that suddenly here it is more economical to have an EV than an ICE, from the same model, probably very similar package. Without magic calculations about km/year, graphs when is it more economical. It is plain simple, EV is suddenly cheaper to own than the ICE.

Something doesn't add up. How can a more expensive car be cheaper to lease? After all leasing is just renting. So either VW is taking a loss on the e-Golf or they are expecting a higher resale value. Keep in mind that EU car manufacturers must sell a certain amount of EVs in order to reduce (at least on paper because the reality is different) the average CO2 emission of all the vehicles they sell. If they don't meet this then the manufacturers will face hefty fines. So what is cheaper? Selling a car at a loss or pay the fine?

[tszaboo]

The lease price a flat fee you are paying for:
car + tax + mandatory service + tax + insurance + tax + insurance + tax + insurance + tax...
Even though the car is more expensive, everything else must be cheaper.

[orion242]

Is there any solid data on how the long the batteries last and what the replacement costs are?

Seen a few cases now showing quotes to replace in excess of $30K.  If that's the case, its a death sentence for the car.  If the battery is 50% the cost of the car, its going to need to last the lifetime of a normal ICE which these days 200K miles isn't uncommon.  Replacing an engine or trany is a nothing burger compared to $30K and either of those are likely a trip to the crusher for ICE.

First hint of the cost


Digging a bit on the googles, came across a telsa forum post with about the same cost out of warranty.  One could replace ICE engine and trany for less, yet no one would.

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison.

To put it in perspective, there's a common Mercedes engine that fails commonly with bad head-bolts, and the replacement/install price is US $57k

I had a chrysler concorde that I bought and six months later the trany puked < 100K miles.  There was no choice other than replacement given my investment in the car and it was under $3k to replace.  So whats a battery @ 100K?  Bought the car with something like 75K on the clock, sold it round 200K.  Still got my money out of it.

Is a motor or trany cheap.  Nope.  Still seems minor to a battery replacement at the numbers I'm seeing.

[tocsa120ls]

So.. early Teslas started dying because of the eMMC flash in the ECU reaches the end of their lifecycle, thanks to the fact the computer writes a lot of self-diagnostic logs to it. If Musk is right, the problem is fixed in later cars, but if so, _how_ is it fixed? Did they simply reduce log granularity or changed the write routine?

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2019/10/tesla-troubles-models-bricking-over-flash-memory-problem/

[sokoloff]

They put in a larger eMMC, allowing for more wear-leveling I think.

[thm_w]

So.. early Teslas started dying because of the eMMC flash in the ECU reaches the end of their lifecycle, thanks to the fact the computer writes a lot of self-diagnostic logs to it. If Musk is right, the problem is fixed in later cars, but if so, _how_ is it fixed? Did they simply reduce log granularity or changed the write routine?

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2019/10/tesla-troubles-models-bricking-over-flash-memory-problem/

There is a link in your article with the information: https://insideevs.com/news/376037/tesla-mcu-emmc-memory-issue/

[tocsa120ls]

Doesn't seem to me they fixed the original problem, just delayed it.
And of course it's not a simple "desolder - duplicate - solder a new one in" job, so you're looking at anywhere between $1700-$4000 if your California Ferrari croaks.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

If they didn't get that that flash was gonna wear out, makes me wonder, what other things are they missing?

[thm_w]

Doesn't seem to me they fixed the original problem, just delayed it.
And of course it's not a simple "desolder - duplicate - solder a new one in" job, so you're looking at anywhere between $1700-$4000 if your California Ferrari croaks.

Every device that uses NAND is going to have a failure mode, its just a matter of how long it takes. Delay is fine if the delay is 10+ years.
Should be possible to repair for <$200 in parts, but of course, the average owner is not going to be capable of this.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/preventive-emmc-replacement-on-mcu1.152489/

If they didn't get that that flash was gonna wear out, makes me wonder, what other things are they missing?

So many companies have had issues with flash (keysight for example), its very hard to do it right. Question is how they respond to the problem.

[linux-works]

guys, this was an EASY thing to fix.  cause is laziness and 'schedule push' that we all face (in this industry), sad to say.

I've seen this first hand in other cars.  its somewhat common.  junior developers think that syslog is 'free' and they never start off with vebose=0 mode.  bugs the crap out of me, but junior guys don't get it (it seems) and mgmt doesn't care.

the fix is incredibly simple.  but again, mgmt has to see the return on the developer's time and often, mgmt is not being promoted on bugfixes, only new FEATURES, so features come first; and bugfixes lag and sometimes never get fixed.

when time-to-market matters too much and there are more things to do than time allowed, this happens.

[linux-works]

So.. early Teslas started dying because of the eMMC flash in the ECU reaches the end of their lifecycle, thanks to the fact the computer writes a lot of self-diagnostic logs to it. If Musk is right, the problem is fixed in later cars, but if so, _how_ is it fixed? Did they simply reduce log granularity or changed the write routine?

the stories I hear from ex-tesla employees tell a real horror story.  basically, it does not sound like its GOOD to be working there (good for resume, but not for work/life balance).  very few last very long and that's one of the problems in this industry.  its like a meat grinder; people come and go and there is not enough continuity in how much info is transferred before employees have 'had enough' and leave on their own (or musk decides to fire another round of them, to boost profits, sigh).

I've heard that the model X was almost entirely designed by INTERNS (college students).  I can't verify that, but I've heard it from more than one source who used to work there.

there's a saying about laws and sausages: you don't want to witness either one being 'made'.  I would say the same about some industries.  the auto industry has some nasty little secrets that car owners may not really want to hear..

[Bud]

I've heard that the model X was almost entirely designed by INTERNS (college students).  I can't verify that, but I've heard it from more than one source who used to work there.

I do not believe that. In my office we have interns and i can say they are not substitution for  experienced full time employees. None of serious work can be done by them, only simple entry level stuff.

[linux-works]

I've worked with some really good interns, in both hw and sw, in previous jobs.  and given tesla's pay style, its been related to me that interns can even make MORE income (during their stay) than fulltime engineers.  the way the pay works (overtime and hourly for interns) it can be better for them.  this may attract better candidates.

again, this is from people that I know that worked there.  its not something I 'just read online'.  believe it or not; won't bother me any, but I have no reason to make this up.  again, I love my tesla car and I recommend the model 3 to others.  I just don't recommend the model X and that has been echo'd by many people that used to work there when it was being designed.

[nctnico]

I agree that some interns can do quite useful work with a minimum amount of supervision. It only gets hairy with things you only learn by experience. Like calculating the endurance of flash memories and thinking about software maintenance, version control and deployment. I too have had the joy & privilege to work with several very bright young people.

Either way... when it comes to cars: don't buy the first version of a model! It will have teething problems.

[maginnovision]

I have 2 first year 4 door Civic si's And no problems. Granted they came out 6-12 months after the 2 doors. Having worked at a dealer I'll say every year has issues(every year for every make and model)

[orion242]

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison

I had no choice but to buy a new tranny on a petrol car, installed was under $3K.

What's a battery cost?

[mikeselectricstuff]

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison

I had no choice but to buy a new tranny on a petrol car, installed was under $3K.

What's a battery cost?

batteries aren't going to completely fail - individual cells can usually be replaced.

[coppice]

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison

I had no choice but to buy a new tranny on a petrol car, installed was under $3K.

What's a battery cost?

batteries aren't going to completely fail - individual cells can usually be replaced.

How much does it cost to get to that individual cell, and replace it? It might now be as much as $3k, but neither is it a couple of hundred bucks.

[tocsa120ls]

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison

I had no choice but to buy a new tranny on a petrol car, installed was under $3K.

What's a battery cost?

batteries aren't going to completely fail - individual cells can usually be replaced.

How much does it cost to get to that individual cell, and replace it? It might now be as much as $3k, but neither is it a couple of hundred bucks.

Well, you have to disconnect and remove the battery. Open the battery cover. If you have diagnostics for it - great, if not, you're looking at an afternoon of measuring ~1000 18650 cells, careful that you don't short two together, then remove the busted one, solder (?) in a new one, reprogram the BMS so it knows you replaced the bad cell, and, as the evergreen Haynes manual says: reassembly is the reverse of disassembly. 

[sokoloff]

I just faced that possibility (it ended up being 100% covered by Nissan). The warranty repair (as near as I can tell from reading the work order) was ~9 hours book labor and used modules are about $140 delivered for a single. At $120/hr, and allowing $250 for misc supplies, that's a $1500 repair.

That 9 hours is two techs for a half day. I strongly suspect that the actual labor is closer to 5-6 hours and at an independent, you might be looking at a figure just over $1000 today.

DIY, it would be a long day and $200.

[sokoloff]

How much does it cost to get to that individual cell, and replace it? It might now be as much as $3k, but neither is it a couple of hundred bucks.

Well, you have to disconnect and remove the battery. Open the battery cover. If you have diagnostics for it - great, if not, you're looking at an afternoon of measuring ~1000 18650 cells, careful that you don't short two together, then remove the busted one, solder (?) in a new one, reprogram the BMS so it knows you replaced the bad cell, and, as the evergreen Haynes manual says: reassembly is the reverse of disassembly. 

Most of the batteries are modular; the BMS inquiry tool that I used cost me ~$25 ($15 for the app and $10 for the ODB2 dongle) and I took the car into the Nissan dealer telling them which cell was bad.
The repair involved no soldering and while I can't be sure whether Nissan did or did not connect to the BMS, many successful DIY repairs have been without doing so.

https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=30380

[nctnico]

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison

I had no choice but to buy a new tranny on a petrol car, installed was under $3K.

What's a battery cost?

batteries aren't going to completely fail - individual cells can usually be replaced.

That seems unlikely to me because the (most often used) 18650 cells are welded into a pack for reliability reasons. Taking one out is not easy to say the least. Also replacing a single cell is not a good idea because it won't match the other cells which are from a different badge & aged differently. It is more likely a battery from an EV consists of modules each with their own BMS and that you can replace modules. Things are different if larger Li-ion cells are used which are (usually) bolted into place (the Nissan Leaf seems to use these kind of large cells). Still not all EVs seem to be designed for partial battery replacement or for being serviceable at that level by a dealer.

[tocsa120ls]

How much does it cost to get to that individual cell, and replace it? It might now be as much as $3k, but neither is it a couple of hundred bucks.

Well, you have to disconnect and remove the battery. Open the battery cover. If you have diagnostics for it - great, if not, you're looking at an afternoon of measuring ~1000 18650 cells, careful that you don't short two together, then remove the busted one, solder (?) in a new one, reprogram the BMS so it knows you replaced the bad cell, and, as the evergreen Haynes manual says: reassembly is the reverse of disassembly. 

Most of the batteries are modular; the BMS inquiry tool that I used cost me ~$25 ($15 for the app and $10 for the ODB2 dongle) and I took the car into the Nissan dealer telling them which cell was bad.
The repair involved no soldering and while I can't be sure whether Nissan did or did not connect to the BMS, many successful DIY repairs have been without doing so.

https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=30380

Cool! I'm going to read your story. (I have a guy that fixes Prius batteries, he told me the same thing, I just wanted to exaggerate a bit)

[mikeselectricstuff]

Well, you have to disconnect and remove the battery. Open the battery cover. If you have diagnostics for it - great, if not, you're looking at an afternoon of measuring ~1000 18650 cells, careful that you don't short two together, then remove the busted one, solder (?) in a new one, reprogram the BMS so it knows you replaced the bad cell, and, as the evergreen Haynes manual says: reassembly is the reverse of disassembly. 

Current EV batteries tend to be more modular than that.

[orion242]

Current EV batteries tend to be more modular than that.

Agree, most I have seen the innards of, it looks like smaller modules that makeup the pack.  Still would be a project to drop, crack open, swap and reinstall.  ~9hrs seems reasonable.  Used module, so its a roll on the battery roulette wheel.  I sure as hell wasn't putting a factory new tranny in a used car with 75K on it.

Wasn't really what I was thinking of though either.  ICE needs a new injector, you don't replace the whole engine either.

Be it wear, accident, etc and the pack needs replacement.

Lets say little johnny and his friends take the model 3 out for a little off road session and lands the pack on a sharp rock pile / tree stump etc.  Battery is BER.  Johnny gets lucky the pack doesn't go nuclear, but its cactus.

Also is there any real data on the lifespan of battery pack on the current production EVs?  Are they still useful with 175-200K on them or needing full replacement prior to that.

[coppice]

It seems its not just Australia where Nissan are trying to charge crazy prices for replacement Leaf batteries.

https://insideevs.com/news/379055/nissan-30000-euros-leaf-battery/

[sokoloff]

Also is there any real data on the lifespan of battery pack on the current production EVs?  Are they still useful with 175-200K on them or needing full replacement prior to that.

The liquid cooled battery equipped models seem to do pretty well.

There are Tesla Model S with over 450K miles. That one had two battery warranty replacements (at 194K and 324K miles)

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/bremsx/review_of_the_highest_mileage_tesla_in_the_world/

YouTube link to a portion of the video that discusses long-term maintenance and costs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhbD44jXffY&feature=youtu.be&t=165

[orion242]

There are Tesla Model S with over 450K miles. That one had two battery warranty replacements (at 194K and 324K miles)

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/bremsx/review_of_the_highest_mileage_tesla_in_the_world/

YouTube link to a portion of the video that discusses long-term maintenance and costs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhbD44jXffY&feature=youtu.be&t=165

450K is amazing if that is the case.  Not sure reddit is anything I'm going to take as gospel either.  If that is correct, assuming its someone putting on 100K+/yr and not really representative of a 150-200K 8+yr old pack either.

 There are outfits tracking registrations, surly they can figure out when X isn't renewed anymore and can assume EOL.  EV vs ICE where is the avg mileage at EOL?  IMO that's the first metric I want to evaluate before I can process does this make cents.

[orion242]

So this Telsa went through 3x batteries and a front drive unit.  So ~150K / battery which was covered under warranty in that specific case.

Would note that this extended warranty cost isn't accounted for in their maintenance costs.  Doesn't even seem one can get this unlimited millage warranty anymore or extended warranty on the battery regardless.

What is the Tesla Extended Service Agreement?
Extended Service Agreements cover the repair or replacement necessary to correct defects in the materials or workmanship of most parts manufactured or supplied by Tesla during the coverage period, excluding the car’s lithium-ion battery and drive unit, which have their own separate warranty.

What am I missing here?  That car under some grandfathered warranty program that no longer exists?  Doesn't appear there is much of any warranty past 100k.

If that's the case, lets recalc the costs for what your actually on the hook for.

Almost $3k for headlights 

[sokoloff]

Almost $3k for headlights 

That's for 2, and isn't unheard of in the industry by any means.

Porsche 911: $2.1K MSRP part cost (for one): https://parts.byersporsche.com/p/Porsche__911/Headlight-Assembly/64797449/99163123506.html
Lexus LC: $1.7K MSRP part cost (for one): https://parts.lexusofenglewood.com/p/Lexus__LC-500/UNIT-ASSEMBLY---HEADLAMP---LEFT/69489632/8118511050.html
Acura NSX: the bargain of the bunch at $1.3K MSRP part cost (for one): https://www.acurapartsworld.com/oem-parts/acura-headlight-unit-l-hid-33151sl0a04

$2800 for 2, including labor seems reasonable in light of the comps above.
(It's absurd in absolute terms, but that's the price of fancy looking and functioning lighting in the luxury/sport coupe world.)

[orion242]

Honda Accord - $150-500/ea

https://www.carid.com/2019-honda-accord-headlights/

Likely plentiful at a scrap yard for a cheap as well.

Guess its just another added cost of "luxury" cars.

[coppice]

Honda Accord - $150-500/ea

https://www.carid.com/2019-honda-accord-headlights/

Likely plentiful at a scrap yard for a cheap as well.

Guess its just another added cost of "luxury" cars.

Most of the really pricy headlights are adaptive beam LED ones. The prices are certainly crazy, but the product is a lot more complex than that Honda Accord headlight.  For a simple headlight $150 to $500 is pretty crazy. Such is the effect of monopoly supply.

[orion242]

Still...

Given it seems that warranty is not available, their numbers are fairy tail land today.

2x batteries & front drive unit out of pocket, guessing that thing is bound for the crusher before that happens.  This also says nothing to the long term lifetime (aka years / mainstream use case) of the car.

Make sure to pull the headlights before scrapping though!

[MadScientist]

As an owner of a 30kwh leaf 2016  that now has 185,000km on it , I’d said it’s been a very successful vehicle , charging at home 6 nights a week , for €0.085 per kWh at night rate , and free workplace charging

As for eco arguments, ICE proponents don’t factor in the environmental costs of oil production, and the damage that’s caused by massive oils spills, so factoring in issues with electricity production is equally nonsense. All you can compare is the point source environmental emissions. I have no control over anything else. Hence EVs WiLL reduce urban pollution , irrespective  of the global position and it’s the local pollution that’s largely the health issue.

On a cost to me basis , insurance is lower then equivalent ice , motor tax is on the lowest band , there have been a cheap servicing , no faults , and the savings over my previous petrol car ( which was a small car) was such that it paid for the new  car ( and I got the benefit of driving a new car with all the mod cons)

EVs don’t make sense for low mileage users , or people that have to rely on paid for third party charging and yes they are  relatively expensive , however my leaf was not significantly dearer after the 10k rebate was applied. Again the sustainability of the tax position into the future is irrelevant. I can’t predict or know the future makeup of the tax system , the subsidy , etc and it’s just idle speculation as to what taxation and gov policy may bring. All you can do if deal with the here and now

For me , it’s a nicer drive , hence both my wife and tend to do long journeys in it .

Yes EVs arnt  currently for everyone , the car choice  is restricted and they get expensive fast, but if they fall within the zone, ie significant mileage , but within the cars range, it works very well.

Leafs have been on the road here since late 2010, I know several people with 7 year old versions quite happily motoring around.

I’ve owned all sorts of cars , and some of them equally cost a fortune to repair , I had a range rover that went through 2 gearboxes out of warranty , that’s was 6K a pop each time !!

A car no matter what is a wasting asset. It’s also for most people also a partial lifestyle choice , so absolute affordability is a rather ridiculous concept as few people buy cars on such a basis anyway. If it was we’d all be driving Fiat 500s

[EEVblog]

As for eco arguments, ICE proponents don’t factor in the environmental costs of oil production

http://www.lithiummine.com/lithium-mining-and-environmental-impact

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

As for eco arguments, ICE proponents don’t factor in the environmental costs of oil production, and the damage that’s caused by massive oils spills, so factoring in issues with electricity production is equally nonsense.

Not so fast my friend, because electricity generation burns fossil fuels too, ergo the environmental costs of FF extraction and distribution apply as well, but with extra well to wheel steps in the case of EVs, because once you've got the fossil fuels burnt (1) and converted into (heat +) mechanical energy (which is the last step in the case of ICEs), you still have to transform it (=> losses) into something else (electricity), feed it into the grid for distribution (=> more losses), convert it to DC (=> more losses) to store in a battery (=> more losses) to finally transform it back (with more losses) into mechanical energy again, in the EV.

And, when in the winters you use the heater, that energy in the case of ICEs comes at no additional expense whatsoever, 100% gratis from step (1), but EVs have to suck it all from the battery, at more than 2x the total energy cost compared to ICEs. By the way a decent cabin heater may well suck up to 6 kW => more than 12kW of additional power is the cost for EVs (*). Eco-conscious EV users should never turn it on! 

(*) 6 kW thrown away at step (1) + 6kW+ losses due to extra W2W steps, sucked from the battery.

[nctnico]

Not just that but fossil fuel power plants also produce a lot of nasty stuff like NOx and SO2. These emissions are the ones which are bad for our health!

Emission limits for power plants are much more relaxed compared to ICE cars. When run from the electricity mix in the Netherlands the average EV is barely meeting the EURO6 limit for NOx. This is without taking the emissions caused during production of the EV into account. If you care about your health and the environment then a hybrid is by far the best choice given the current situation. EVs are dead anyway. China is already moving towards Hydrogen quickly due to the emissions for electricity generation, shortage of battery materials and range limits.

[orion242]

That aside.

What's the EV battery recycle program look like?  The green aspect seems the weakest argument IMO.  If they cannot outlast, or the typical maintenance parts are a nightmare, its a nothing burger if the input is not squeaky clean which its almost never.

I buy used and don't normally find the maintenance costs discharge an ICE till 200K miles or more.  The one exceptional battery case with documentation, flunked batteries 3x @ ~150K.  That really changes the cost vs benefit calc on buying an EV IMO.

Lack of fast chargers so I don't have to piss around for hours, another huge problem.

[linux-works]

EVs are dead anyway. China is already moving towards Hydrogen quickly due to the emissions for electricity generation, shortage of battery materials and range limits.

what fantasy world do you live in?

china gov is flip flopping and while they did fund all their local EV companies (I work for one of them, fwiw), the 'switch' of the goverment's favor toward alternate fuels can easily switch back again.  they are a random element that can't be counted on, for incentive backing - we've seen this and know it.  but that does not mean EV is being de-emphasized.  the market is growing, the ice market is shrinking and especially in china where the pollution is so high, they MUST switch away from petrol based engines.  they really have no choice and they know it; that's why so much EV work is being done in china and by china based companies who are in the US.

[mikeselectricstuff]

That aside.

What's the EV battery recycle program look like? 

AIUI ,pretty non-existent at the moment as there aren't enough end-of-life batteries to recycle - they're lasting longer than expected, and getting re-purposed for renewables storage or broken into modules to repair other batteries.

[linux-works]

topgear article on battery swapping in china:

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/big-reads/power-shift-battery-swapping-our-way-across-china

time will tell if batt swap is a success or not.

[nctnico]

EVs are dead anyway. China is already moving towards Hydrogen quickly due to the emissions for electricity generation, shortage of battery materials and range limits.

china gov is flip flopping and while they did fund all their local EV companies (I work for one of them, fwiw), the 'switch' of the goverment's favor toward alternate fuels can easily switch back again.  they are a random element that can't be counted on, for incentive backing - we've seen this and know it.  but that does not mean EV is being de-emphasized.  the market is growing, the ice market is shrinking and especially in china where the pollution is so high, they MUST switch away from petrol based engines. 

But oddly enough a hybrid ICE (euro6) beats an EV running from fossil fuels hands down if you look at CO2 and harmfull pollution. So if you want to reduce pollution an EV is not the best choice. If you are not convinced then look up NOx and SO2 emissions in China from electricity production. Also the CO2 savings are highly debatable. Just run the numbers and you'll see an EV only makes sense if you can produce & power it from near 100% hydro, solar, wind or nuclear directly (IOW: without CO2 emission rights trading). Otherwise an EV will cause more pollution and damage to the environment overall. Ofcourse the 'EV boat' still has momentum but I recon the chances are 80% that EVs will be abandoned in the next 10 years. That may seem strong now but people also called me crazy when I told them diesels would be banned in the near future. And see where we are now...

[coppice]

china gov is flip flopping and while they did fund all their local EV companies (I work for one of them, fwiw), the 'switch' of the goverment's favor toward alternate fuels can easily switch back again.  they are a random element that can't be counted on, for incentive backing - we've seen this and know it.  but that does not mean EV is being de-emphasized.  the market is growing, the ice market is shrinking and especially in china where the pollution is so high, they MUST switch away from petrol based engines.  they really have no choice and they know it; that's why so much EV work is being done in china and by china based companies who are in the US.

Incentives are always a complex issue, that need to adapt as the market develops, because people will always game the rules. Places like Beijing have both pollution and congestion issues they need to solve. EVs help with the city pollution, but are just as big a congestion issue as any other kind of car. So, they have a balancing game they need to play, encouraging both a reduction in the growth of car numbers, and a reduction in car pollution. They will obviously need to alter various incentives and quotas, as people learn the games they can play.

[coppice]

If you are not convinced then look up NOx and SO2 emissions in China from electricity production.

NOx and SOx aerosols are really bad in cities, but in the general atmosphere they are part of the aerosol mix that is dimming the sun and limiting temperature rises. Until atmospheric CO2 can be substantially reduced, it would be dangerous to cause a big drop in these dimming aerosols. What we need is to keep high concentrations of them away from people's lungs. EVs for cities are mostly powered by plants well away from the cities, so they have real benefits even if they are only NOx/SOx neutral.

[nctnico]

If you are not convinced then look up NOx and SO2 emissions in China from electricity production.

NOx and SOx aerosols are really bad in cities, but in the general atmosphere they are part of the aerosol mix that is dimming the sun and limiting temperature rises. Until atmospheric CO2 can be substantially reduced, it would be dangerous to cause a big drop in these dimming aerosols. What we need is to keep high concentrations of them away from people's lungs. EVs for cities are mostly powered by plants well away from the cities, so they have real benefits even if they are only NOx/SOx neutral.

This reasoning doesn't fly. Emitting many times more pollution a few kilometers away doesn't make it better. Actually it makes the air quality worse for a lot more people. In the EU (IOW large parts of Europe) fuel is free from Sulfur so ICE based transport doesn't emit SO2. But power plants to generate electricity do. For example: in the Netherlands the power plants alone emit about 73000 metric tonnes of Sulfur into the air annually. In which world is that better?

[thm_w]

As for eco arguments, ICE proponents don’t factor in the environmental costs of oil production

http://www.lithiummine.com/lithium-mining-and-environmental-impact

Leaf has about 4kg of lithium. Approximately 120MJ energy is used to mine this. Or the equivalent energy in 4 liters of gas.
An average car might last 8 years and 240,000 km.
Over this time it will consume 16,800 liters of gas (~7L/100km). Add to that the inefficiency of the refinery (90%) and the energy costs of pulling it from the ground (?).

Not to mention the lithium can be recycled at the end of the vehicles life.
Its not even comparable.

edit: of course in your case the electric car will use coal/gas via electricity generation, in my case it will not.

[nctnico]

As for eco arguments, ICE proponents don’t factor in the environmental costs of oil production

http://www.lithiummine.com/lithium-mining-and-environmental-impact

Leaf has about 4kg of lithium. Approximately 120MJ energy is used to mine this. Or the equivalent energy in 4 liters of gas.
An average car might last 8 years and 240,000 km.
Over this time it will consume 16,800 liters of gas (~7L/100km). Add to that the inefficiency of the refinery (90%) and the energy costs of pulling it from the ground (?).

Not to mention the lithium can be recycled at the end of the vehicles life.
Its not even comparable.

Because you are using the wrong numbers. Every well-to-wheel analysis shows that producing an EV emits at least twice the amount of CO2 compared to an equivalent ICE car. And most of the extra CO2 comes from producing the battery. This puts an EV behind an efficient ICE based car. Compared to an efficient ICE car like a diesel or a hybrid the EV won't make up for the extra CO2 emitted during it's production (based on the CO2 emissions from the average electricity mix). Take the higher emission limits of the typical fossil fuel power plants into account and an EV is even a step back.

I already ran all the numbers and EVs are a solution looking for a problem. It is a total dead end from every angle you look at it given the current state and near future state of technology and energy production.

[thm_w]

Not so fast my friend, because electricity generation burns fossil fuels too, ergo the environmental costs of FF extraction and distribution apply as well, but with extra well to wheel steps in the case of EVs, because once you've got the fossil fuels burnt (1) and converted into (heat +) mechanical energy (which is the last step in the case of ICEs), you still have to transform it (=> losses) into something else (electricity), feed it into the grid for distribution (=> more losses), convert it to DC (=> more losses) to store in a battery (=> more losses) to finally transform it back (with more losses) into mechanical energy again, in the EV.

And, when in the winters you use the heater, that energy in the case of ICEs comes at no additional expense whatsoever, 100% gratis from step (1), but EVs have to suck it all from the battery, at more than 2x the total energy cost compared to ICEs. By the way a decent cabin heater may well suck up to 6 kW => more than 12kW of additional power is the cost for EVs (*). Eco-conscious EV users should never turn it on! 

(*) 6 kW thrown away at step (1) + 6kW+ losses due to extra W2W steps, sucked from the battery.

You haven't used any actual numbers, other than the heater, because you have no hard data to back up your argument.

I'll assume hes in England, because I didn't see a country specified:
- Put on a jacket instead of heating the car, its not that cold.
- 25% of their electricity comes from renewable sources. So you've already cut fossil fuel usage by 25%, even if the electric car somehow used as much energy as an ICE (hint, it does not).



Efficiencies:
Gas plant efficiency can be as high as 60%.
An ICE vehicle is about 20% efficient (gas -> motion).
An electric car is about 70% efficient (battery -> motion).

Worse case we are talking 26% for electric vs 20% for the ICE (https://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/alternative-fuels/fuel-cell4.htm). If the plant is 60% efficient (40% was used in that article, eg coal), and 25% of the countries electricity comes from renewable sources, we are talking more in the realm of 50% for the electric and 20% for the ICE.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/10/electric-car-myth-buster-efficiency/

[thm_w]

Because you are using the wrong numbers. Every well-to-wheel analysis shows that producing an EV emits at least twice the amount of CO2 compared to an equivalent ICE car. And most of the extra CO2 comes from producing the battery. This puts an EV behind an efficient ICE based car. Compared to an efficient ICE car like a diesel or a hybrid the EV won't make up for the extra CO2 emitted during it's production (based on the CO2 emissions from the average electricity mix). Take the higher emission limits of the typical fossil fuel power plants into account and an EV is even a step back.

I already ran all the numbers and EVs are a solution looking for a problem. It is a total dead end from every angle you look at it given the current state and near future state of technology and energy production.

At no point did I mention building the car, I was simply discussing the energy use of mining the lithium, which was what was quoted. 
Fossil fuel power plants are more efficient than vehicle engines, by about 3x, there is no question of that.

Either way I don't care because my energy does not come from a fossil fuel power plant.

[nctnico]

At no point did I mention building the car, I was simply discussing the energy use of mining the lithium, which was what was quoted. 
Fossil fuel power plants are more efficient than vehicle engines, by about 3x, there is no question of that.

And yet an EV loses by about 2 times when powered from a coal power plant. An efficient ICE based car emits around 100 grams of CO2 per km. An EV powered from a coal power plant sits over 200 grams of CO2 per km (a typical coal power plant emits 1000 grams of CO2 per kWh). At (a conservative) 200Wh/km an EV sits at 200 grams of CO2. Please explain again how power plants are more efficient?

And you should care how your EV is made. The chances are high that your net CO2 emission is still more compared to an efficient ICE based car due to the enormous amount of energy needed to produce your car.

[thm_w]

And yet an EV loses by about 2 times when powered from a coal power plant. An efficient ICE based car emits around 100 grams of CO2 per km. An EV powered from a coal power plant sits over 200 grams of CO2 per km (a typical coal power plant emits 1000 grams of CO2 per kWh). At (a conservative) 200Wh/km an EV sits at 200 grams of CO2. Please explain again how power plants are more efficient?

And you should care how your EV is made. The chances are high that your net CO2 emission is still more compared to an efficient ICE based car due to the enormous amount of energy needed to produce your car.

At no point did I mention coal plant efficiency, and no you cannot drive an ICE car on coal. Yet somehow you shift the discussion there because you realize you've hit a dead end.
Coal is terrible, we are comparing GAS in a vehicle to GAS in a power plant.

Typical thermal efficiency for utility-scale electrical generators is around 37% for coal and oil-fired plants,[6] and 56 – 60% (LEV) for combined-cycle gas-fired plants.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_power_station

[coppice]

If you are not convinced then look up NOx and SO2 emissions in China from electricity production.

NOx and SOx aerosols are really bad in cities, but in the general atmosphere they are part of the aerosol mix that is dimming the sun and limiting temperature rises. Until atmospheric CO2 can be substantially reduced, it would be dangerous to cause a big drop in these dimming aerosols. What we need is to keep high concentrations of them away from people's lungs. EVs for cities are mostly powered by plants well away from the cities, so they have real benefits even if they are only NOx/SOx neutral.

This reasoning doesn't fly. Emitting many times more pollution a few kilometers away doesn't make it better. Actually it makes the air quality worse for a lot more people. In the EU (IOW large parts of Europe) fuel is free from Sulfur so ICE based transport doesn't emit SO2. But power plants to generate electricity do. For example: in the Netherlands the power plants alone emit about 73000 metric tonnes of Sulfur into the air annually. In which world is that better?

Reasoning has little to do with it. When Volvo launched the V90 and S90 in 2016 the British government was go keen on the low CO2 output of diesel cars, Volvo didn't even offer a gasoline version in the UK. A year later the government started turning anti-diesel, because NOx output in the cities was the concern of the day, so things have moved heavily towards gasoline cars. This rather ignores that most of the gasoline powered cars are now turbocharged, run hotter, and produce more NOx than older gasoline cars, and might not be much cleaner than diesel. Some UK cities recently decided they want to ban diesel cars from their centres in 2021, even the latest and cleanest ones. That knee jerk reaction gives very little time for people who recently bought a new diesel car to take reasonable replacement action. There is no plan. Just a lot of inconsistent emotional reactions that are the biggest threat we face.

That 73k tonnes of sulphur going into the air each year, which you referred to,  is helping to dim the sun, and reduce the effects of CO2, so its not all bad.

[Fungus]

And yet an EV loses by about 2 times when powered from a coal power plant.

Maybe, but coal is on the way out so it's not a reason to halt development of electric cars.

[nctnico]

And yet an EV loses by about 2 times when powered from a coal power plant.

Maybe, but coal is on the way out so it's not a reason to halt development of electric cars.

Coal (and fossil fuels in general) will die later than electric cars. And natural gas isn't much better when looking at NOx output. Natural gas also contains Sulfur which 'burns' to SO2. The way things are looking the 20's will very likely be the decade of the demise of the electric cars.

Just ask yourself why Toyota still hasn't announced their own electric car yet (besides a 3 wheeler motorcycle similar to the Renault Twizy) . Toyota says they are making electric cars but if you read carefully you'll see that they mean hydrogen + electric motor or ICE + electric motor (hybrid) and have no plans to diverge from that path. Toyota is also the only car manufacturer which has managed to reduce to CO2 emissions of the average car they sold in the EU.

[linux-works]

electric cars won't go away until there is something better to replace them.

if you have driven an electric, you know about the immense torque those cars tend to have.

SO MUCH FUN!

no transmission gear changes, no redline, passing power that only supercars used to have.

e-cars are not going away, dude.  they are only going to go up.

betting against electric is the dumb move.  ALL the car companies are winding down on gas engine development.  that is a fact.

[nctnico]

betting against electric is the dumb move.

And yet Toyota is doing exactly that!

The real problem is that many car manufacturers (especially the ones in Europe) where under the impression that they could:
A) bully & scam their way out of stricter emissions regulations for NOx and CO2
B) manufacture and sell enough electric cars to compensate for CO2 emissions.

Neither is happening. The 'sticking their heads in the sand / too-big-to-fail' trick didn't work. So in a knee-yerk reaction they claim to make electric cars to safe face but the reality is that in Europe the number of electric cars sold is still extremely low and there aren't enough materials to make electric cars anyway. The only way out is hybrid. Toyota has realised this in time and the rest will follow shortly. Just look at how many hybrid models are announced. There is no other option within the given time frame. Based on the average CO2 emissions of the cars sold in Europe in 2019 the car manufacturers together face a projected fine of about 35 billion euro for 2020 (VW alone is good for 9 billion euro) if they don't lower the CO2 emissions of the average car they sell in 2020. Toyota has to pay the lowest (projected) amount of all.

By the time batteries and infrastructure are good enough 3rd and 4th generation bio-fuels have bridged the gap and hydrogen has already caught up. Germany and China have already accellerated building hydrogen infrastructure; it makes no sense to invest in an electric charging infrastructure in parallel (hydrogen infrastructure is also much cheaper).

[lpickup]

Coal (and fossil fuels in general) will die later than electric cars.

Really, then why is coal on a drastic downward trend while electric cars are on an upward trend?

Especially when you actually look at 2019.  For example, you like to base your thesis on a report from ADAC (which by the way, like our AAA in the US has very strong ties to the oil industry, so is it really any surprise that their research is biased in favor of oil consuming cars?) which illustrates how EVs in Germany, because the German grid is so heavily coal-based, apparently do no better than gas and diesels.  That report was supposedly based on 2018 "data" (more on that later).  But take a look at what happened to coal consumption in Germany in 2019:

Or how about the UK:

Or the US, where we have a president who apparently is actively trying to prop up coal.  The result?  A 19% decline in 2019:
America’s Coal Consumption Entered Free Fall in 2019
Australia:


Sure, China and India still make up the lion's share of world coal consumption, so EVs in those areas are perhaps not as clean as in other parts of the world, but even they seem to have turned the corner.

Coal is dying. 
EVs are ramping:

2019 make take a bit of a hit in the uptake of EVs (mainly due to economic slowdown in China)

It is a brave statement to make that you expect coal to outlive (in any significant fashion) EVs and relies significantly on false statements such as "limited raw materials", assuming that the grid never gets any cleaner than it is today, and using cherry picked data that can easily be shown to be wrong.  For example, the CO2/kWh in Germany from your ADAC report quotes a figure of 580gCO2/kWh as calculated by the Federal Environment Agency (although no link is provided), whereas this report by the same agency shows a figure of 489gCO2/kWh: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/coal-task-force-postponed-yet-again-source-fracking-commission/co2-emissions-kilowatt-hour-down-36-percent-between-1990-and-2017-germany (the provided link to the German report is broken, but here is the fixed one:
 https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/1410/publikationen/2018-05-04_climate-change_11-2018_strommix-2018_0.pdf)

And of course the statement that hydrogen infrastructure is somehow cheaper than electric infrastructure seems completely absurd. 

[nctnico]

Just wait and see what happens. Especially when the markets for EVs are no longer artificially maintained/created by subsidies and tax incentives.

On a large scale EV sales are still a drop in the bucket. It is like Windows phone versus Android. A 50% increase for Windows phone may seem like a lot but with a marginal market share it still amounts to nothing. Don't get fooled by big numbers without the big picture.

And yes, hydrogen infrastructure is cheaper. Look it up yourself; it is about 4 times cheaper according to a German study. Not to mention convenient range and quick fueling.

[lpickup]

Just wait and see what happens. Especially when the markets for EVs are no longer artificially maintained/created by subsidies and tax incentives.

I will.  Because thanks to the fact that battery costs continue to fall each year, subsidies are eventually not needed (unlike the fossil fuel industry which still to this day relies on deep subsidies and tax breaks because those oil & gas wells are not getting easier to find).

On a large scale EV sales are still a drop in the bucket. It is like Windows phone versus Android. A 50% increase for Windows phone may seem like a lot but with a marginal market share it still amounts to nothing.

Don't get fooled by big numbers without the big picture.

Yeah, this is the nature of practically any new technology.  It's not like it goes from 0 to 50% in a single year.  Especially with something like automobiles, which are large investments and have relatively long lifetimes.  I understand I need to explain this fact to the average layperson, but I didn't figure I would need to explain the effect of compound growth rates on an engineering forum. Don't get fooled by small numbers without the big picture (i.e. look at the trend, not just a snapshot in time).

And yes, hydrogen infrastructure is cheaper. Look it up yourself; it is about 4 times cheaper according to a German study. Not to mention convenient range and quick fueling.

Great, another German study.

My understanding is that a single hydrogen fuel station would cost between US$1-1.5 million.  Compare that to an 8-stall Tesla Supercharger site that costs about US$250,000.  And then finally consider the fact that not only could you build 4 Supercharger sites for each one H2 station, but you don't even need as many because most people will be able to charge at home or work and will only need a $500 L2 charging station, or like many people, just plug their mobile EVSE into a household outlet.  If I'm wrong, please show me the data and don't ask me to "look it up myself".

[SilverSolder]

Hydrogen has some "user acceptance issues" (think Hindenburg) that would need to be overcome, and proven in real world use, before this technology has a chance of displacing EVs.

If you have nuclear, hydro, geothermal, wind, etc. power, an EV seems a sound choice.

[Red Squirrel]

I would love an EV myself.   I recently got a new vehicle, a (used) F150... so not exactly the best thing for the planet, but I wanted a truck since I do lot of stuff around the house like construction stuff where it's nice to have.   If I could get an electric used truck for the same price as gas I would go electric in a heart beat.  The issue with electric is that they arn't making enough or making them attractive financially.  Go on any car lot, how many cars on there are electric?  You'll be lucky to find a single one.  They arn't promoting them at all.   This is something that needs to change, they need to make EVs a normal regular thing instead of a niche thing.   I can't justify the cost of buying new and will always buy used.   If there's hardly any EVs on the new market then it will be even longer until there are some on the used market.

Eventually I would love to get more into working on cars (need to buy a bigger property first) and one project I'd like to take on is an EV conversion.   The issue is sourcing out lithium cells though... very hard to find any reputable sites that sell them especially here in Canada.   You can get used Tesla battery packs off ebay but at the prices they are asking + shipping you may as well just buy a new Tesla.

[linux-works]

a lot of companies provide free charging at work.  how would that work with hydrogen?

people can home-charge in their garage, with electric.  again, same question to you.

and I said it before, people LOVE the torque you get from electric motors.  no one drives one and hates it.  not. a. single.  person.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

and I said it before, people LOVE the torque you get from electric motors.  no one drives one and hates it.  not. a. single.  person.

I like my diesel more than my EV. You surely don't know it because in the USA ~ nobody drives diesel cars, but diesels have plenty of torque as well. It only takes two minutes to fill the tank and with a tank I can do ~ 1000 km. A similar SUV EV would have costed me 4x as much, has 1/3 the range (in theory), takes "an eternity" to recharge, and there are almost no places anywhere to refill.

EV Pros:
-Better "fuel" price per km, but, if and only if you can recharge at home (I can).

EV Cons:
-Car price begins at about 2x as much, SUVs at 4x.
-Can't recharge almost nowhere.
-Takes forever to recharge.
-No cheap third party parts => parts are expensive.
-Not easy to fix yourself => repairs are expensive.

EVs are only good for EV fans and early adopters and only as a second car. And you must have an excess of $ to spare because economically it doesn't make sense.

[linux-works]

I would disagree about the ev price.  it depends on what ev you are looking at.

the most common one in the bay area is the model 3 and its incredible how many you see around here.  and while the other teslas *are* truely overpriced and 'rich mans toys', the model 3 is normally priced.  I was driving a vw passat for the past 16 years and when I finally sold it and went with a model 3, the cost of the car was about the same as my vw.  car insurance was LOWER with my tesla.  ownership price is probably going to be lower.  and for bay area fueld costs, its definitely cheaper to drive and electric (and if you get free charging at work, which is more and more common, now, then its not even close, anymore).

its definitely not for everyone and every area of the world.  for me, being in the bay area, it was not a hard decision.  its my only car, I don't have a 2nd one and I don't even have home charging; but I'm not planning on going back to ICE, ever, if I can avoid it.

is there 'range anxiety' for those that don't have home charging?  yes, to some degree.  I don't wake up every day with a fully charged car; but I'm close enough to work that I can get there, recharge there and even have enough juice to be able to run home during the day for any random errand, run back to work and still have enough for the commute home and back again.

definitely an adjustment.  you do have to be good at planning.  but I think its totally worth it and very glad I converted over.

[Red Squirrel]

The other pro of EV is that it's more green, and we need to move to a world where we stop relying on burning fossil fuel if we want to try to stop climate change.  It's probably a lost cause at this point though. changes need to happen at large scale.   ex: big ships.

[nctnico]

The other pro of EV is that it's more green, and we need to move to a world where we stop relying on burning fossil fuel if we want to try to stop climate change.  It's probably a lost cause at this point though. changes need to happen at large scale.   ex: big ships.

But that is the problem. EVs aren't green today. They are way worse compared to an efficient hybrid (you have to take pollution from SO2 and NOx into account as well). And that isn't going to change very soon either. The whole EV mantra hinges on the pipe dream that one day we'll have electricity from renewable sources and batteries don't need materials which are mined by children.

[coppice]

and I said it before, people LOVE the torque you get from electric motors.  no one drives one and hates it.  not. a. single.  person.

When I first drove an (experimental) electric car in the early 90s the torque felt amazing.... but only the first few times I tried it. Then the novelty faded. The people around me who were developing the car (more specifically developing chunks of electronics - this was within Motorola Semiconductors) wanted everyone who visited to feel that surge the high torque provided. They all enjoyed it, but they all found the novelty quickly faded.

[SilverSolder]

and I said it before, people LOVE the torque you get from electric motors.  no one drives one and hates it.  not. a. single.  person.

When I first drove an (experimental) electric car in the early 90s the torque felt amazing.... but only the first few times I tried it. Then the novelty faded. The people around me who were developing the car (more specifically developing chunks of electronics - this was within Motorola Semiconductors) wanted everyone who visited to feel that surge the high torque provided. They all enjoyed it, but they all found the novelty quickly faded.

It's like owning a powerful gas (petrol) car, though, isn't it?  You don't flog it every time you leave an intersection, but once in a while when the little devil with the pitchfork stabs your shoulder...

[tszaboo]

The whole EV mantra hinges on the pipe dream that one day we'll have electricity from renewable sources

I've counted 49 countries, where more than 50% of electricity is made out of renewable sorces.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production_from_renewable_sources

North Korea solved it better than here. While here they are playing around with solar bicycle paths and other nonsense, instead of giving instant 1000 EUR tax break to everyone who puts solar on the roof. No, I think we should just wait, until half the country will be under water.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

You don't flog it every time you leave an intersection

No??? 

but once in a while when the little devil with the pitchfork stabs your shoulder...

The EV you just floor it and yee hawwww, most ICEs lose the race changing gears. But many diesels can pull out very well in 2nd gear, and 2nd gear goes up to almost 90 km/h... 

[coppice]

The whole EV mantra hinges on the pipe dream that one day we'll have electricity from renewable sources

I've counted 49 countries, where more than 50% of electricity is made out of renewable sorces.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production_from_renewable_sources

North Korea solved it better than here. While here they are playing around with solar bicycle paths and other nonsense, instead of giving instant 1000 EUR tax break to everyone who puts solar on the roof. No, I think we should just wait, until half the country will be under water.

I don't know how accurate that chart is overall. The first thing I looked at was the UK, and the figures there make no sense at all. However, assuming its mostly accurate I note that most of the countries with a really good percentage of renewable energy get most of it from hydro power. That's not scalable. Some countries are blessed with the required natural resources, and some aren't. If you can find a similar chart from 30 years ago the hydro figures wouldn't be dramatically different. Its a low hanging fruit among renewables that was heavily exploited long ago.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

But now they can pump the water back to the reservoir with renewables, no?

[nctnico]

The whole EV mantra hinges on the pipe dream that one day we'll have electricity from renewable sources

I've counted 49 countries, where more than 50% of electricity is made out of renewable sorces.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production_from_renewable_sources

And most of those countries have almost no people living in there. So meh...

[lpickup]

But that is the problem. EVs aren't green today. They are way worse compared to an efficient hybrid (you have to take pollution from SO2 and NOx into account as well).

No, not true, at least not everywhere.  In even the "dirtiest" places of the mainland US, your hybrid would need to get over 51mpg to be equivalent to an EV, and in some areas it would have to be well over 100mpg (147mpg in California and 259mpg in New York).  Even as far back as 2016, if you weight this by areas where EVs have been sold, the weighted average for the entire country is 80mpg (https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electric-vehicles-continue-to-get-cleaner).  And by the way, this data is backed up by the GREET model (https://greet.es.anl.gov/) which takes into account all emissions including SO2, NOx as well as PM2.5 and PM10--don't forget those!  So please stop your mantra of EVs being "way worse".  At a minimum, this is only true in some regions, and is rapidly changing (see below).

And that isn't going to change very soon either. The whole EV mantra hinges on the pipe dream that one day we'll have electricity from renewable sources and batteries don't need materials which are mined by children.

You say it's a pipe dream, but those are just words.  It's not.  It's actually happening.  You seemingly ignore the fact that the cost of renewables (wind & solar) have already reached a cost tipping point not only in comparison with new coal & gas, but even now with existing coal.  I.e. it's cheaper to build a brand new solar or wind farm than it is to continue using an existing, already built coal plant.  There may not have been a financial reason to make the switch before now, but now it just doesn't make sense to go the renewable route, environmental OR financial, and the transition, if you care to look at it, is happening now.  The same is true for EVs.  We are nearing a crossover point with ICE vehicles as well.

And yes, ethically sourcing cobalt is an important matter.  We can't ignore it.  Fortunately EV makers are actively engaged in efforts to ethically source cobalt or reduce usage to 0%.  Interestingly enough, the oil industry is a consumer of cobalt as well as a catalyst for de-sulphurizing cruide oil.  Unlike it's use in batteries, where the material can be recovered through recycling, a portion of the cobalt catalyst is lost to the end fuel where it is burned and lost to the environment.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

There are about 275e6 cars in the USA (1), electricity generation is 4171e9 kWh/year (2), double the generation figure and you could have 4171e9/275e6/365.25= 42 kWh/car/day.

(1) https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/
(2) https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

[nctnico]

You say it's a pipe dream, but those are just words.  It's not.  It's actually happening.  You seemingly ignore the fact that the cost of renewables (wind & solar) have already reached a cost tipping point not only in comparison with new coal & gas, but even now with existing coal.

Renewables are cheap because they don't need storage -yet-. Currently renewables like solar and wind can't work without coal and gas so there is a limit to the amount of renewables.

[lpickup]

There are about 275e6 cars in the USA (1), electricity generation is 4171e9 kWh/year (2), double the generation figure and you could have 4171e9/275e6/365.25= 42 kWh/car/day.

(1) https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/
(2) https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

I'm not following what you are trying to say here or what your point is.

[Red Squirrel]

The other pro of EV is that it's more green, and we need to move to a world where we stop relying on burning fossil fuel if we want to try to stop climate change.  It's probably a lost cause at this point though. changes need to happen at large scale.   ex: big ships.

But that is the problem. EVs aren't green today. They are way worse compared to an efficient hybrid (you have to take pollution from SO2 and NOx into account as well). And that isn't going to change very soon either. The whole EV mantra hinges on the pipe dream that one day we'll have electricity from renewable sources and batteries don't need materials which are mined by children.

Even in 3rd world places still using 18th century tech such as coal it still ends up being better than individual cars burning gas.  But ideally if you get an EV you live in an area that is already using mostly renewable and you can always supplement your own as well. That's what I would do.  Nuclear is also clean, even though it's not renewable.  It would be nice if the stigma would go away and at very least renewable could be coupled with nuclear and all the fossil fuel plants could be shut down.  Nuclear would be a good go between until we can actually go 100% green.

We really do need to work on large scale energy storage though, I think that is really the key to having a more sustainable energy source.  We also need better small scale storage to make large electric vehicles (like large boats) viable.   Lithium Ion is good but we need something even better.

[thm_w]

Even in 3rd world places still using 18th century tech such as coal it still ends up being better than individual cars burning gas.  But ideally if you get an EV you live in an area that is already using mostly renewable and you can always supplement your own as well. That's what I would do.  Nuclear is also clean, even though it's not renewable.  It would be nice if the stigma would go away and at very least renewable could be coupled with nuclear and all the fossil fuel plants could be shut down.  Nuclear would be a good go between until we can actually go 100% green.

We really do need to work on large scale energy storage though, I think that is really the key to having a more sustainable energy source.  We also need better small scale storage to make large electric vehicles (like large boats) viable.   Lithium Ion is good but we need something even better.

He refuses to give up that talking point even though I've linked sources noting otherwise.
If he wants to continue to use the point with the caveat *in areas that are purely powered by coal and will not change within the next few years, eg a small percentage of the people in this thread* then I'd say its a valid statement.

Coal is a horrific and primitive fuel.
There might be recent improvements, but based on past results I would be highly skeptical.

[coppice]

Coal is a horrific and primitive fuel.

Yeah, its really horrifying how it built the modern world, and lifted millions out of abject misery. Get a grip. Its certainly a fuel we need to replace now, but without it we would probably still be living in the middle ages.

[thm_w]

Yeah, its really horrifying how it built the modern world, and lifted millions out of abject misery. Get a grip. Its certainly a fuel we need to replace now, but without it we would probably still be living in the middle ages.

That is exactly what I meant
Do you think I somehow meant we never should have used it? no.

edit: my fault for using "primitive" incorrectly it seems. Perhaps a better word exists, obsolete or outdated, but they don't have the same negative connotation.

[nctnico]

The other pro of EV is that it's more green, and we need to move to a world where we stop relying on burning fossil fuel if we want to try to stop climate change.  It's probably a lost cause at this point though. changes need to happen at large scale.   ex: big ships.

But that is the problem. EVs aren't green today. They are way worse compared to an efficient hybrid (you have to take pollution from SO2 and NOx into account as well). And that isn't going to change very soon either. The whole EV mantra hinges on the pipe dream that one day we'll have electricity from renewable sources and batteries don't need materials which are mined by children.

Even in 3rd world places still using 18th century tech such as coal it still ends up being better than individual cars burning gas.

But it isn't. Compared to an modern hybrid (we are not going to compare 20 year old diesel cars with brand new EVs ofcourse) the hybrid wins both on SO2 and NOx. Even in China <10ppm sulfur content fuel is mandatory for cars (and trucks). However coal and gas fired plants (and also the plants which burn bio-mass!) are under much less strict regulations compared to ICE cars. These are simple government regulations which make EVs much more dirty to operate. Now ofcourse people can continue to claim this will change in the future but fail to state when and where exactly. Fossil fuels aren't going away in the next 5 years (and probably longer because at some point fossil fuels can't be replaced without storage) so a modern hybrid is the cleanest choice. The kicker is that governments are so focussed on CO2 reduction that they forget to look at the bigger picture. One example: in the Netherlands subsidies on bio-mass heating furnaces have been stopped beginning this year because of the NOx and other harmfull emissions. The bottom line is: you can't keep focussing on small facets without looking at the big picture.

[thm_w]

But it isn't. Compared to an modern hybrid (we are not going to compare 20 year old diesel cars with brand new EVs ofcourse) the hybrid wins both on SO2 and NOx. Even in China <10ppm sulfur content fuel is mandatory for cars (and trucks). However coal and gas fired plants (and also the plants which burn bio-mass!) are under much less strict regulations compared to ICE cars. These are simple government regulations which make EVs much more dirty to operate. Now ofcourse people can continue to claim this will change in the future but fail to state when exactly. Fossil fuels aren't going away in the next 5 years (and probably longer because at some point fossil fuels can't be replaced without storage) so a modern hybrid is the cleanest choice *in china*.

You somehow forgot that point, again, for the third time. Has a single person from China or India posted in this thread?
Even in your own country its only 15% coal: https://build.export.gov/build/groups/public/@eg_us_ca/documents/webcontent/eg_us_ca_112261.pdf
With the commitment to shut all coal plants down by 2029.

[nctnico]

But it isn't. Compared to an modern hybrid (we are not going to compare 20 year old diesel cars with brand new EVs ofcourse) the hybrid wins both on SO2 and NOx. Even in China <10ppm sulfur content fuel is mandatory for cars (and trucks). However coal and gas fired plants (and also the plants which burn bio-mass!) are under much less strict regulations compared to ICE cars. These are simple government regulations which make EVs much more dirty to operate. Now ofcourse people can continue to claim this will change in the future but fail to state when exactly. Fossil fuels aren't going away in the next 5 years (and probably longer because at some point fossil fuels can't be replaced without storage) so a modern hybrid is the cleanest choice *in china*.

You somehow forgot that point, again, for the third time. Has a single person from China or India posted in this thread?
Even in your own country its only 15% coal: https://build.export.gov/build/groups/public/@eg_us_ca/documents/webcontent/eg_us_ca_112261.pdf
With the commitment to shut all coal plants down by 2029.

The Netherlands is just a small country in Europe. SO2 doesn't stop at the border. And natural gas powered plants still emit lots of NOx. If you look at Europe then you'll see fossil fuels are near 50% and this number is massively skewed by France due to their nuclear power plants. Other countries are still far behind; Poland for example which get 80% of their energy from coal according to your document. Or look at Denmark. Just to highlight that EVs aren't a universal solution to preventing pollution. There is a much bigger picture than cherry picking countries which seem to be ahead. The differences in Europe are huge.

Besides that we'll have to see if the coal plants actually get shut down in the NL since 2029 is far away. There are contracts to burn bio-mass and the political climate may change too. The climate sceptic parties have quite a lot of voters behind them. The biggest problem is that the energy transition in general is going to hit the people who have least to spend the hardest. Look at how the French nearly got into a revolution last year because the fuel prices where increased.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

There are about 275e6 cars in the USA (1), electricity generation is 4171e9 kWh/year (2), double the generation figure and you could have 4171e9/275e6/365.25= 42 kWh/car/day.

(1) https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/
(2) https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

I'm not following what you are trying to say here or what your point is.

If all the cars in the USA were EVs, how much more electricity would they need?

Generating 2x as much, they'd have 42 kWh/car/day which is +200 km/car/day (124 miles).

[lpickup]

There are about 275e6 cars in the USA (1), electricity generation is 4171e9 kWh/year (2), double the generation figure and you could have 4171e9/275e6/365.25= 42 kWh/car/day.

(1) https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/
(2) https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

I'm not following what you are trying to say here or what your point is.

If all the cars in the USA were EVs, how much more electricity would they need?

Generating 2x as much, they'd have 42 kWh/car/day which is +200 km/car/day (124 miles).

If this is what you're trying to determine, then may I suggest you go this route:

In the US, the average car drives 14,000 miles per year, or about 40 miles per day.

Most EVs get between 3.5 and 4.5 miles per kWh (at least today).  I will stipulate that in the future, as bigger and less aerodynamic EVs like SUVs and pickup trucks are made electric, that figure will probably drop.  So let's even call it 3 miles/kWh.

That would be 13.33kWh per car per day, not 42kWh/car/day.

So that is the additional energy that must be generated.  But something you did not address (but which I see asked about all the time) is this:

13.33kWh/car/day = 4869kWh per car/year
times 275e6 cars in the US = 1339e9 kWh per year for cars
which is 32% more than we are generating today

Does that mean we need 32% more generating capacity in the US?

Definitely not, because most of our generating capacity is sitting idle at times that EVs would be charging.

[sokoloff]

because most of our generating capacity is sitting idle at times that EVs would be charging.

Further, as an electric car owner, I don't care when my car gets charged (and I have a low capacity LEAF); I just need to ensure it gets charged two to three times per week, anytime.

I'm going to be fairly responsive to any incentives offered to charge at a time that is convenient for the electric utility, especially if it's easy for me.

Give me a charger that "decides" when/how fast to charge (with an ability for me to override it if I really want to charge now), and you can create a ready-made 25+% of the total grid load controllable load to help you create a smoother baseline than is even possible today.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

In the US, the average car drives 14,000 miles per year, or about 40 miles per day.

 , that's a figure I didn't know. Then 40/124= 0.32 => no need to generate 2x as much, 1.32x would do.

So let's even call it 3 miles/kWh.

Agreed, 3 miles/kWh ~= 20 kWh/100km = the figure I used above.

Does that mean we need 32% more generating capacity in the US?

Definitely not, because most of our generating capacity is sitting idle at times that EVs would be charging.

Installed power is always > generated power (specially for renewables) buuuut, for any increase in load at peak hours you're going to have to increase installed power that's for sure. IOW, as it is now, you can only count on being able to increase generation at off-peak hours (or buy it from your neighbour, as Germany is doing now so often).

Most people would be ok recharging at night no problem I'd think, so it'd be fine I guess.

[lpickup]

Installed power is always > generated power (specially for renewables) buuuut, for any increase in load at peak hours you're going to have to increase installed power that's for sure. IOW, as it is now, you can only count on being able to increase generation at off-peak hours (or buy it to your neighbour, as Germany is doing now so often).

Which is how it's always been, EVs or not.  The grid has more or less been expanding every year since it was built, although in recent years it's more or less leveled off, presumably due to conservation and more efficient appliances and things like LED light bulbs.

Also consider that peak demand is also seasonal:  in most of the country, summer peak is much more than winter peak.  I suppose your point is still valid that if all cars in the US were EV and some percentage of them wanted to plug in in the middle of the hottest afternoon in the summer that the grid would have to be larger than it is today to handle that.  I'd agree with that.  At the same time, I would hope that future grid expansion for this scenario would be comprised of solar, particularly since there should be plenty of sun on those hot summer days.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Installed power is always > generated power (specially for renewables) buuuut, for any increase in load at peak hours you're going to have to increase installed power that's for sure. IOW, as it is now, you can only count on being able to increase generation at off-peak hours (or buy it to your neighbour, as Germany is doing now so often).

Which is how it's always been, EVs or not.  The grid has more or less been expanding every year since it was built, although in recent years it's more or less leveled off, presumably due to conservation and more efficient appliances and things like LED light bulbs.

Also consider that peak demand is also seasonal:  in most of the country, summer peak is much more than winter peak.  I suppose your point is still valid that if all cars in the US were EV and some percentage of them wanted to plug in in the middle of the hottest afternoon in the summer that the grid would have to be larger than it is today to handle that.  I'd agree with that.  At the same time, I would hope that future grid expansion for this scenario would be comprised of solar, particularly since there should be plenty of sun on those hot summer days.

If only PVs would work at night... we could comfortably recharge the EVs at home for free at night while sleeping. Damn it!

[boffin]

In the US, the average car drives 14,000 miles per year, or about 40 miles per day.

Most EVs get between 3.5 and 4.5 miles per kWh (at least today).  I will stipulate that in the future, as bigger and less aerodynamic EVs like SUVs and pickup trucks are made electric, that figure will probably drop.  So let's even call it 3 miles/kWh.

That would be 13.33kWh per car per day, not 42kWh/car/day.

So that is the additional energy that must be generated.  But something you did not address (but which I see asked about all the time) is this:

13.33kWh/car/day = 4869kWh per car/year
times 275e6 cars in the US = 1339e9 kWh per year for cars
which is 32% more than we are generating today

Does that mean we need 32% more generating capacity in the US?

Definitely not, because most of our generating capacity is sitting idle at times that EVs would be charging.

You're comparing two different numbers
average miles driven per American per year: 13,476  https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm
but then multiplying it by the number of vehicles in the USA which are different things.  There are plenty of people who own more than one vehicle... (more than own 0 vehicles)

There are 263m registered vehicles in the USA, but only 222m registered drivers

so multiply your number by 222m not 275m....

[tszaboo]

If only PVs would work at night... we could comfortably recharge the EVs at home for free at night while sleeping. Damn it!

You can just charge it at work. Comes as an employee benefit.

And most of those countries have almost no people living in there. So meh...

Small countries like Brazil, right?

[coppice]

If only PVs would work at night... we could comfortably recharge the EVs at home for free at night while sleeping. Damn it!

You can just charge it at work. Comes as an employee benefit.

And most of those countries have almost no people living in there. So meh...

Small countries like Brazil, right?

The population density of Brazil is quite low. They have a lot of area gathering hydro energy to be used by a relatively small number of people.