eevBLAB #63: How Affordable Are Electric Cars?

[SilverSolder]

Prices hit about $4.00 in '08,  people were so angry we came close to a second Boston Tea Party! 

Heaven!  Here in NZ converted to US units currently the cheapest really-only-recommended-for-your-lawn-mower 91  will cost about $5 US per Gallon, and 98 will be at least $6 US per Gallon.

In the US, gasoline typically has octane ratings of 87 (regular), 88–90 (midgrade), and 91–94 (premium).   98 octane is the subject of hot rod fantasy dreams! 

87 octane is probably just right for the Ford Model T,  with its compression ratio of 4.5 to 1...

[boffin]

Prices hit about $4.00 in '08,  people were so angry we came close to a second Boston Tea Party! 

Heaven!  Here in NZ converted to US units currently the cheapest really-only-recommended-for-your-lawn-mower 91  will cost about $5 US per Gallon, and 98 will be at least $6 US per Gallon.

In the US, gasoline typically has octane ratings of 87 (regular), 88–90 (midgrade), and 91–94 (premium).   98 octane is the subject of hot rod fantasy dreams! 

87 octane is probably just right for the Ford Model T,  with its compression ratio of 4.5 to 1...

Octane is measured differently in North America vs Europe. (RON or R is the Research Octane Number,  MON is the Motor Octane Number)

in North America; it's   R+M / 2
whereas the rest of the world uses R alone.

This results in European numbers being typically 5-6 higher than the north american numbers.

[sleemanj]

In the US, gasoline typically has octane ratings of 87 (regular), 88–90 (midgrade), and 91–94 (premium).   98 octane is the subject of hot rod fantasy dreams! 

87 octane is probably just right for the Ford Model T,  with its compression ratio of 4.5 to 1...

As per boffin, 98 in NZ is equivalent about 93-94 for you guys in the US, our 91 is equivalent to your 87.

We can also get 95 (equiv 90), and in a few places 100 (equiv 95-96) if you're in a spendy mood.

[SilverSolder]

Octane is measured differently in North America vs Europe. (RON or R is the Research Octane Number,  MON is the Motor Octane Number)

in North America; it's   R+M / 2
whereas the rest of the world uses R alone.

This results in European numbers being typically 5-6 higher than the north american numbers.

Interesting, another opportunity for the USA to get on board with modern units of measurement...   once we're done with Fahrenheit, inches, quarts, teaspoons, cups, and the like!  :-)

[orion242]

Is there any solid data on how the long the batteries last and what the replacement costs are?

Seen a few cases now showing quotes to replace in excess of $30K.  If that's the case, its a death sentence for the car.  If the battery is 50% the cost of the car, its going to need to last the lifetime of a normal ICE which these days 200K miles isn't uncommon.  Replacing an engine or trany is a nothing burger compared to $30K and either of those are likely a trip to the crusher for ICE.

First hint of the cost


Digging a bit on the googles, came across a telsa forum post with about the same cost out of warranty.  One could replace ICE engine and trany for less, yet no one would.

[maginnovision]

I'm more curious to see how much registration costs go up here when they decide the lack of gas taxes for electric cars isn't working anymore. I'd assume a couple thousand dollars a year. Right now it's just another subsidy.

[orion242]

Gas tax money will not be lost, that's for sure.

They will get from some other bucket, bet it registration, tolls, property, income...whatever.  Taxes almost never go down, something has to maintain the roads or wasted on whatever it is currently.

[tszaboo]

Anyone still wondering: The VW e-golf is now 300 EUR per month for leasing. Regular golf is 400 EUR
Which happened even faster than I predicted.

[coppice]

Anyone still wondering: The VW e-golf is now 300 EUR per month for leasing. Regular golf is 400 EUR
Which happened even faster than I predicted.

Interesting. Are you comparing similar trim levels for the Golf and the e-Golf? I just tried looking at the VW UK web site. I don't know how the base trim of the Golf compares to the trim of the e-Golf, but they give £596.82 rental in advance and £198.94 per month over 36 months for the base Golf, and £1,876.62 rental in advance and £312.77 per month over 36 months for the e-Golf.

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/offers-and-finance/finance-calculator#!/view/screen-2?servicePlan=NOPLAN&rentalsInAdvance=3&annualMileage=10&periodOfMonths=36&modelId=30316&trimId=30316-11356&derivativeId=BQ137V-2020-GPDAPDA-GPF2PF2-GPLAPLA-GPNDPND-GPRCPRC-GPU2PU2-GPX1PX1-GWD1WD1-GW9GW9G-GYOIYOI-GYOWYOW-GZEDZED-MCDR7RE-MNES8WH-MAUD9WX&pageIndex=0&customerType=business

https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/offers-and-finance/finance-calculator#!/view/screen-2?servicePlan=NOPLAN&rentalsInAdvance=6&annualMileage=10&periodOfMonths=36&modelId=30316&trimId=30316-2986&derivativeId=BE23D1-2020-MASMGM2-GPF3PF3-GPLAPLA-GWD1WD1-GW18W18-GW19W19-GYOZYOZ-MASE6XQ-MEPH7X2-MSBR8SK&pageIndex=0&customerType=business

[maginnovision]

I am told I have to contact a dealer to get any pricing details

[tszaboo]

It is the "from" price for both cars. The e-golf base price is more expensive at 34KEUR vs 29KEUR, I guess you save everything on the tax + service and whatnot. I've read somewhere in the news, that they have huge deals on the e-golf in Germany, since the id3 will be so much better deal.

[coppice]

It is the "from" price for both cars. The e-golf base price is more expensive at 34KEUR vs 29KEUR, I guess you save everything on the tax + service and whatnot. I've read somewhere in the news, that they have huge deals on the e-golf in Germany, since the id3 will be so much better deal.

The base trim often varies between countries, but in the UK the Golf starts at £22k, and the e-Golf at £31k. Perhaps what you are seeing is clearance sale prices for an overstock e-Golfs. Its interesting if that is the case, considering the serious under-supply of many interesting electrics cars right now.

[boffin]

Is there any solid data on how the long the batteries last and what the replacement costs are?

Seen a few cases now showing quotes to replace in excess of $30K.  If that's the case, its a death sentence for the car.  If the battery is 50% the cost of the car, its going to need to last the lifetime of a normal ICE which these days 200K miles isn't uncommon.  Replacing an engine or trany is a nothing burger compared to $30K and either of those are likely a trip to the crusher for ICE.

First hint of the cost


Digging a bit on the googles, came across a telsa forum post with about the same cost out of warranty.  One could replace ICE engine and trany for less, yet no one would.

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison.

To put it in perspective, there's a common Mercedes engine that fails commonly with bad head-bolts, and the replacement/install price is US $57k

[boffin]

Anyone still wondering: The VW e-golf is now 300 EUR per month for leasing. Regular golf is 400 EUR
Which happened even faster than I predicted.

Well, of course you're not explaining why that is; so I'll explain to the people here.
On a 4 year lease, you're still required to pay 100% of the registration taxes for hat new car (on the full price).
On the gasoline model it's 20+% in the Netherlands, whereas on an electric it's currently only 4%.

But being transparent about the numbers you project in your anti-ev sentiment has never been one of your strong suits, has it.

Here are the retail prices for VWs in the Netherlands

Volkswagen Golf Highline Vanaf €28.775
Volkswagen Golf e-Golf CTA Vanaf €34.296

The EV continues to be 5k+ more expensive than the gasoline variant, and there's so huge demand in Europe that VW's new electric production (ID) is already sold out for the 1st two years IIRC.

[SilverSolder]

I'm looking forward to all the ICE bargains as they become obsolete!

[maginnovision]

I'm looking forward to all the ICE bargains as they become obsolete!

Hell yea, make them obsolete and get rid of smog. I'll get my supras back, and the new one!

[tszaboo]

Anyone still wondering: The VW e-golf is now 300 EUR per month for leasing. Regular golf is 400 EUR
Which happened even faster than I predicted.

Well, of course you're not explaining why that is; so I'll explain to the people here.
On a 4 year lease, you're still required to pay 100% of the registration taxes for hat new car (on the full price).
On the gasoline model it's 20+% in the Netherlands, whereas on an electric it's currently only 4%.

But being transparent about the numbers you project in your anti-ev sentiment has never been one of your strong suits, has it.

Here are the retail prices for VWs in the Netherlands

Volkswagen Golf Highline Vanaf €28.775
Volkswagen Golf e-Golf CTA Vanaf €34.296

The EV continues to be 5k+ more expensive than the gasoline variant, and there's so huge demand in Europe that VW's new electric production (ID) is already sold out for the 1st two years IIRC.

I'm pro EV. I'm not pro Tesla. And I actually wrote down the prices above.
Yes, taxes are definitely changing the habit's of people, and what kind of cars they are driving. Here it forces people to drive tiny cars. In Denmark , the car tax is 105% and 180% (not a typo), and everyone is driving shitboxes. In Belgium everyone goes for leased company car, as it is (almost) tax free income.
My point is that suddenly here it is more economical to have an EV than an ICE, from the same model, probably very similar package. Without magic calculations about km/year, graphs when is it more economical. It is plain simple, EV is suddenly cheaper to own than the ICE.

The base trim often varies between countries, but in the UK the Golf starts at £22k, and the e-Golf at £31k. Perhaps what you are seeing is clearance sale prices for an overstock e-Golfs. Its interesting if that is the case, considering the serious under-supply of many interesting electrics cars right now.

Sure, I've even seen the same cars sold with different engine in different countries.

[nctnico]

My point is that suddenly here it is more economical to have an EV than an ICE, from the same model, probably very similar package. Without magic calculations about km/year, graphs when is it more economical. It is plain simple, EV is suddenly cheaper to own than the ICE.

Something doesn't add up. How can a more expensive car be cheaper to lease? After all leasing is just renting. So either VW is taking a loss on the e-Golf or they are expecting a higher resale value. Keep in mind that EU car manufacturers must sell a certain amount of EVs in order to reduce (at least on paper because the reality is different) the average CO2 emission of all the vehicles they sell. If they don't meet this then the manufacturers will face hefty fines. So what is cheaper? Selling a car at a loss or pay the fine?

[tszaboo]

The lease price a flat fee you are paying for:
car + tax + mandatory service + tax + insurance + tax + insurance + tax + insurance + tax...
Even though the car is more expensive, everything else must be cheaper.

[orion242]

Is there any solid data on how the long the batteries last and what the replacement costs are?

Seen a few cases now showing quotes to replace in excess of $30K.  If that's the case, its a death sentence for the car.  If the battery is 50% the cost of the car, its going to need to last the lifetime of a normal ICE which these days 200K miles isn't uncommon.  Replacing an engine or trany is a nothing burger compared to $30K and either of those are likely a trip to the crusher for ICE.

First hint of the cost


Digging a bit on the googles, came across a telsa forum post with about the same cost out of warranty.  One could replace ICE engine and trany for less, yet no one would.

Apparently you've not priced a full OEM crate engine or transmission.  Comparing a manufacturer new battery with a rebuilt engine or tranny isn't an equivalent comparison.

To put it in perspective, there's a common Mercedes engine that fails commonly with bad head-bolts, and the replacement/install price is US $57k

I had a chrysler concorde that I bought and six months later the trany puked < 100K miles.  There was no choice other than replacement given my investment in the car and it was under $3k to replace.  So whats a battery @ 100K?  Bought the car with something like 75K on the clock, sold it round 200K.  Still got my money out of it.

Is a motor or trany cheap.  Nope.  Still seems minor to a battery replacement at the numbers I'm seeing.

[tocsa120ls]

So.. early Teslas started dying because of the eMMC flash in the ECU reaches the end of their lifecycle, thanks to the fact the computer writes a lot of self-diagnostic logs to it. If Musk is right, the problem is fixed in later cars, but if so, _how_ is it fixed? Did they simply reduce log granularity or changed the write routine?

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2019/10/tesla-troubles-models-bricking-over-flash-memory-problem/

[sokoloff]

They put in a larger eMMC, allowing for more wear-leveling I think.

[thm_w]

So.. early Teslas started dying because of the eMMC flash in the ECU reaches the end of their lifecycle, thanks to the fact the computer writes a lot of self-diagnostic logs to it. If Musk is right, the problem is fixed in later cars, but if so, _how_ is it fixed? Did they simply reduce log granularity or changed the write routine?

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2019/10/tesla-troubles-models-bricking-over-flash-memory-problem/

There is a link in your article with the information: https://insideevs.com/news/376037/tesla-mcu-emmc-memory-issue/

[tocsa120ls]

Doesn't seem to me they fixed the original problem, just delayed it.
And of course it's not a simple "desolder - duplicate - solder a new one in" job, so you're looking at anywhere between $1700-$4000 if your California Ferrari croaks.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

If they didn't get that that flash was gonna wear out, makes me wonder, what other things are they missing?