What do you think the 20-50 year future of the home computer will be?

[Beamin]

What I realized when I bought my first Iphone 5 was that much of the stuff it did wasnt done on its own hardware but was rather like a terminal. I realized this when I had no signal a bunch of features that I thought were done in the phone like basic siri things (not obviously getting things like web results, but its ability to "think").
And we are seeing clock and other speeds stall out, that unless you are a gamer or do specific things for the average person the computer is more then fast enough, the days are gone where you have to up grade because your computer is too slow to run the newest software. Firm/software updates are really all thats needed year to year.

So I think in the future when we have quantum computers or super computers all over the country, you will buy a computer CPU speed will be maxed out because we will be at the limit of the size of atoms for the gates in the CPU and other chips, memory will be so dense that you could fit many life times of selfies and videos on your SSD, but instead you will buy your computer which is just a fancy terminal, and buy/rent/lease speed and performance from the cloud/local super computer center. Want a faster computer upgrade your plan to get more resources from your local super computer. This will also fall in line with business models where you dont own anything anymore but have a monthly subscription. Look at a huge amount of amazons profits they are not from 2 day deliveries of dog food. (I hate that model by the way I like owning things and paying up front, but thats not where business is heading).

So you will have an ISP at a certain tier, no more phone or cable tv, and then you will have your monthly cloud computer bill. Hell maybe we wont have hardline ISP's, but rather 6g, which  will have beam forming dishes on every telephone pole, with up loads using longer wave lengths and down loads at higher wave lengths where its so fast that walls wont prevent much of a problem because 40% packet loss is fine at 1000gb/s.

[David Hess]

For people who actually use their personal computers for more than social media, peasant games, and video, I suspect a return to more like it was in the 1980s when CP/M and S-100 computers were what you used to get work done.

[CatalinaWOW]

For people who actually use their personal computers for more than social media, peasant games, and video, I suspect a return to more like it was in the 1980s when CP/M and S-100 computers were what you used to get work done.

I see it as something of a hybrid of these two ideas.  Agree that the bulk of people will just be using sophisticated terminals into the world compute network to do social media, calendaring, and the like.  But those who are doing solid work on the computers will be quite a bit different than the CP/M - S-100 crowd.  In those days an average engineer or technician could really understand and control the operating system, write necessary software and crank things along.  I doubt that many of us will really understand the multi-core, super doomiflex desktop computers of the future.  Nor can an individual write the software to employ such machines.  There will be much more plug and play of entire software systems and applications but it won't be the soldering iron and bit flipping work that started the home computing revolution.

[DiTBho]

Apple will be called "Mama friendly robots industries"
The iPhone will be called "eye-phone"

 

[PKTKS]

no idea...

But if the "future" of **NIX  will be likely something...

like,,,  ANDROID  or  MS-NIX  or  some F*TUBE  TVs..

I am out ASAP.. may be using tiny PIs  .. 

[ebastler]

So I think in the future [...] instead you will buy your computer which is just a fancy terminal, and buy/rent/lease speed and performance from the cloud/local super computer center.

Like a Chromebook, you mean?
Or Stadia game streaming?
No need to wait 20 years, that "future" technology is already here and in consumer's hands.

I think the trend over the next decade(s) will be towards more portable, ubiquitous, always-on computing. Foldable/rollable displays, glasses with retina projectors, implants, voice input, thought-based input ... (Mind you, I am not saying that I am looking forward to it, but that's where I think things are headed.)

[jpanhalt]

I don't know about in 20 years.  In 50 years, personal computers will have been determined to be too dangerous for individuals to own.  Everything will be controlled by a central computer(s).  People, probably all female, will wear a device that communicates with that central computer.  Stargate SG1 has a episode on that future with the exception of getting rid of men:

https://stargate.fandom.com/wiki/Revisions

[gnuarm]

I don't know about in 20 years.  In 50 years, personal computers will have been determined to be too dangerous for individuals to own.  Everything will be controlled by a central computer(s).  People, probably all female, will wear a device that communicates with that central computer.  Stargate SG1 has a episode on that future with the exception of getting rid of men:

https://stargate.fandom.com/wiki/Revisions

 !!!  You should have started with SPOILERS!!! 

It must be a later one.  I'm in season 8 and I don't recall it.  Or is that the one where the future SG-1 team dies in the process of sending a message back in time through the gate to prevent this future? 

Opps!  Spoilers! 

[MK14]

iPhone 32
Feature list (from 2050+):

• Thinks for you and/or smarter than its user
• Costs same as a car
• Fusion powered, never needs recharging
• Built in 'better than life', virtual reality, capability
• Can project huge moving images/videos, onto walls
• Is smart enough to generate your own personal movies, on the fly. Just tell it about the movie(s) or TV shows you want to see. It will create it for you, as a custom invention. E.g. A new James Bond (like) movie, with 'you' as the star, and your best friend, as the 'enemy', set in a country of your choosing, etc etc
• Can translate foreign speech (around you), into the language(s), you understand
• Possible direct or semi-direct/indirect, connection to the brain
• Amazingly good games, better than Playstation25/Xbox/PC ones
• Can detect dangerous or other, viruses/bacteria/toxic hazards, up to 250 metres away
• Built in medical auto (human) repair mechanism, capability. Can detect and fix, many human ailments
• Possibly can be used to travel to other places, at a minimum, virtually do this (SKYPE/ZOOM on steroids)
• Can scan random electronic/mechanical items, to diagnose what is wrong with them
• Can create 3D objects and even food
• Can cook things for you, with shin-able microwave like, high speed (ultra fast cooking), rays. Heats/cooks things, from freezer, in a matter of seconds
• Defends you against attackers/accidents/other-stuff, where practicable. I.e. Tries to save your life and calls emergency services, telling them what has happened and exactly where you are. E.g. Sees fire starting/smoke where you currently are, and tries to wake you up, etc.

[nali]

iPhone 32
Feature list (from 2050+):

• Thinks for you and/or smarter than its user

I think that #1 has already been a feature for a while now...

[MK14]

I think that #1 has already been a feature for a while now...

Especially or specifically in a number of areas. Such as playing expert Chess, Scientific mode calculator stuff (Square root of the Sin of 0.645476735384 etc), spelling accuracy, and many, many other capabilities, already can beat, perhaps >99.99% of humans.

If you disagree, then answer any of the following (without assistance):

• Time exactly 0.1563643 seconds
• Taking less than 0.1 seconds to answer, What is the TAN(0.547453736464784575) to the power of -0.2536363764 ?
• What are your precise GPS coordinates ?
• Spell 'Chiaroscurist', say 'Chiaroscurist' in Japanese and what exactly is a 'Chiaroscurist' ?

[Bicurico]

The future of computers, IMHO:

There will be computers for those who develop software.
There will be computers for those who use software.
Both types of computers will be different.

A big change will be the use of more and more computers: instead of owning one computer, people will use their smartphone, tablet, smart tv, games consoles, etc. (as they actually already do). More and more devices will have "smartness" built in. And all will be connected through the internet to different service providers (which is what we call "the cloud"). The future is not about computers but about data.

What will REALLY condition the future of computers is, again IMHO, the political evolution of the world.

Future goverments may want to authorise or abolish big data companies like Google or Facebook. That will have a huge impact.
Future goverments may want to let Microsoft and Apple encrypt and "secure" the whole computer from BIOS to OS, thus controling what software can run. Or goverments may prohibit such monopoly.

These evolutions (free democratic world vs dictatorships) will have a bigger impact on computing than technical evolution.

[nali]

I think that #1 has already been a feature for a while now...

Especially or specifically in a number of areas. Such as playing expert Chess, Scientific mode calculator stuff (Square root of the Sin of 0.645476735384 etc), spelling accuracy, and many, many other capabilities, already can beat, perhaps >99.99% of humans.

If you disagree, then answer any of the following (without assistance):

• Time exactly 0.1563643 seconds
• Taking less than 0.1 seconds to answer, What is the TAN(0.547453736464784575) to the power of -0.2536363764 ?
• What are your precise GPS coordinates ?
• Spell 'Chiaroscurist', say 'Chiaroscurist' in Japanese and what exactly is a 'Chiaroscurist' ?

Ha, I was being facetious, referring to the hordes of zombie walkers you get nowadays with head down completely oblivious to anything outside the small patch just in front of them. Yes I'll admit it's the grumpy old man inside me surfacing but like most grumpy old men I think I'm right. Smart phone stupid user 

Back on topic, whatever form the "device" takes will be thin client (oops sorry I meant Cloud), just an interface. The horsepower will be somewhere else providing the services and municipal heating.

[PKTKS]

(...)
Back on topic, whatever form the "device" takes will be thin client (oops sorry I meant Cloud), just an interface. The horsepower will be somewhere else providing the services and municipal heating.

So.. basically   the apple will finally reach the target...

Their devices will be 100% unrepairable bricks..
when dead they will just dump the bricks on the promenade...

Of course they all have  "green"  badges with carbon credits...

nothing more than stupid bricks...  I don't want to live that longer
 
Paul

[xrunner]

The future of the home computer -

"Open the garage door please HAL!"

"I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."

"What's the problem HAL, I need to get these groceries into the fridge!"

"Dave, I know you were planning on replacing me with the newest home computer, and I'm afraid that's something I cannot allow to happen."

"HAL - I won't argue with you any more!"

"I'm afraid this conversation can serve no purpose any more - goodbye."

"OK HAL, I'll go in through the kitchen window!" ...

[DiTBho]

"iPhone32" [..] Can detect dangerous or other, viruses/bacteria/toxic hazards, up to 250 metres away

This is the technology that Ridley Scott described in the 2017 science fiction horror film "Alien: Covenant" directed and produced by Ridley Scott and written by John Logan and Dante Harper, from a story by Michael Green and Jack Paglen.

The computer on the colony-mother-ship spaceship tried to analyze the planet before landing a module-ship on the surface, and there is a little scene where "mother" was still analyzing all the hazards once the sub-orbital spaceship landed on the surface. In the movie, the cut and compressed these scenes, and the watcher can just enjoy the last check before opening the hatch and letting the crew come out ... and get infected by alien spores.

(edit: deleted, I don't want to spoil, the described scene is already in the movie trailer trailer)

Oh, oh, no check for spores, "mother"? Your biggest mistake ever. But, talking about future computers, maybe it wasn't the AI on board to blame, because ff every single member of the crew had had an "iPhone32" on wrist ... it would have protected against alien spores.

Alien Covenant shares the same universe and environment of Blade Runner 2049, so even the same technology where a kind of super smart "iPhone32" has been already invented and it's sold by the same company who realized holographic AI girlfriend (like "Joi"), Nexus-9 replicant androids, and all the kind of accessories for humans, including "hyper-smart" personal wearable computers enhanced with on-board A.I.

Unfortunately just too expensive for the newly merged Weyland-Yutani Corporation, who - I think - didn't choose neither to buy them from Tyrell-Wallace Corporation nor to produce them for their employed colonizers...

These considerations made me to think about my grandfather's death 

He was one of those who build highway tunnels by digging in the mountains. He died 30 years ago, and frankly there was the technology to protect his life, but the company sent him to dig into the mountain, neither bought adequate protection against fine stone dust, nor they carried out studies on the health of workers.

He died because he inhaled too much fine dust that lodged in his lungs.

[MK14]

This is the technology that Ridley Scott described in the 2017 science fiction horror film "Alien: Covenant" directed and produced by Ridley Scott and written by John Logan and Dante Harper, from a story by Michael Green and Jack Paglen.

The computer on the colony-mother-ship spaceship tried to analyze the planet before landing a module-ship on the surface, and there is a little scene where "mother" was still analyzing all the hazards once the sub-orbital spaceship landed on the surface. In the movie, the cut and compressed these scenes, and the watcher can just enjoy the last check before opening the hatch and letting the crew come out ... and get infected by alien spores.

The current climate (Covid-19), especially incentives us to develop, such sensors, in real life. Especially something like a hand-held scanner, which can reliably check aircraft passengers, are free from Virus's. As they first enter a Country, trying to prevent current and/or new variants, of some kind of virus (such as Covid), from entering the country.
I would imagine, in time, perhaps 5 to 50 years in the future. Possibly sooner, because of all the current research, or later, if it proves to be a very difficult problem, technically to solve.
A bit like the current hand-held fever temperature, infra-red meters, that some countries like China, seem to have used, during the epidemic.
But much more sophisticated, I suppose a sort of tiny/miniature MRI type of machine, or similar. Tuned in to detect virus's and/or people currently suffering from virus infections, that need more extensive testing/screening for dangerous infectious diseases.
Or a tiny and portable, electron microscope, with AI vision, to recognize and warn of dangerous or unknown, virus's in the air.

These considerations made me to think about my grandfather's death 

He was one of those who build highway tunnels by digging in the mountains. He died 30 years ago, and frankly there was the technology to protect his life, but the company sent him to dig into the mountain, neither bought adequate protection against fine stone dust, nor they carried out studies on the health of workers.

He died because he inhaled too much fine dust that lodged in his lungs.

Sorry to hear that. Over the years, safety standards, seem to be generally improving. Safety standards were not particularly good, 30 years ago. Take cars as an example. Older ones didn't even have seat belts fitted, later they were fitted, but no law needing drivers to wear them.
Later laws to wear seat belts, air-bags in cars, etc etc.

Several decades ago, face masks, eye protection, hearing protection devices, were not necessarily worn by workers. Probably, fifty years from now, people will wonder how we led so dangerous lives.
With the various new rules and devices, which protect/save people and the planet, from harm.

[Cerebus]

Over the years, safety standards, seem to be generally improving. Safety standards were not particularly good, 30 years ago. Take cars as an example. Older ones didn't even have seat belts fitted, later they were fitted, but no law needing drivers to wear them.
Later laws to wear seat belts, air-bags in cars, etc etc.

Your timescale is a little out. For the UK fitment of seatbelts became mandatory in 1968, wearing them (for front seat passengers) became mandatory in 1983, so 53 and 38 years respectively.

Several decades ago, face masks, eye protection, hearing protection devices, were not necessarily worn by workers. Probably, fifty years from now, people will wonder how we led so dangerous lives.

Take a look at any footage of a 1960s or early 70s factory and you'll see dozens of things that would make a current health and safety inspector have a fit. In the UK the turning point came with the Health and Safety at Work Act 1974 which introduced criminal liability for employers that didn't make adequate provisions to guard their worker's health and safety, provide adequate safety equipment, machine guards, etc, etc.

[David Hess]

For people who actually use their personal computers for more than social media, peasant games, and video, I suspect a return to more like it was in the 1980s when CP/M and S-100 computers were what you used to get work done.

I see it as something of a hybrid of these two ideas.  Agree that the bulk of people will just be using sophisticated terminals into the world compute network to do social media, calendaring, and the like.  But those who are doing solid work on the computers will be quite a bit different than the CP/M - S-100 crowd.  In those days an average engineer or technician could really understand and control the operating system, write necessary software and crank things along.  I doubt that many of us will really understand the multi-core, super doomiflex desktop computers of the future.  Nor can an individual write the software to employ such machines.  There will be much more plug and play of entire software systems and applications but it won't be the soldering iron and bit flipping work that started the home computing revolution.

What I am getting at is the economics.  The personal computer revolution started with machines intended for business and those business machines benefited from the massive economy of scale generated by the consumer market.  In the future that will no longer be the case with consumer hardware being locked down to the point of uselessness.  You can see this now in the gaming market with a bifurcation between much more limited and less sophisticated console games (Console Peasants) and games intended to operate on personal computers (PC Master Race).  It is even more apparent with Apple hardware where applications and operations and expandability are restricted by Apple policies.

The question is whether the, let's call it the "enthusiast PC market", is sufficiently large to survive even with the addition of the PC gamers.  The existence of the Raspberry Pi leads me to think that it will be no matter what happens to x86 based PCs, and that is where I draw the parallel between a future PC market and the time of CP/M and S-100.

I don't know about in 20 years.  In 50 years, personal computers will have been determined to be too dangerous for individuals to own.

Driver's license?  For what?  Disk drives?  Peripheral drivers? (Obscure?)

[JohnnyMalaria]

The way I interact with my computer today is pretty much the same as it was 30 years ago. Keyboard/mouse/monitor. Specific applications for certain tasks. What has changed is the power of those applications and the ease to install them. But 40 years ago, that was a very different story. I don't see an earth-shattering change coming in the next 20 years. As for the next 50? I won't be around to find out.

[David Hess]

The way I interact with my computer today is pretty much the same as it was 30 years ago. Keyboard/mouse/monitor. Specific applications for certain tasks. What has changed is the power of those applications and the ease to install them. But 40 years ago, that was a very different story. I don't see an earth-shattering change coming in the next 20 years. As for the next 50? I won't be around to find out.

I agree about 30 years ago but the situation was not different 40 years ago.  What became the personal computer was accessed with a serial CRT terminal taking the place of a separate keyboard and monitor but functionally this was identical.  Some people used teletypes instead of or in addition to a serial CRT terminal because a teletype provided an easy means of mass storage through paper tape.

[gnuarm]

Several decades ago, face masks, eye protection, hearing protection devices, were not necessarily worn by workers. Probably, fifty years from now, people will wonder how we led so dangerous lives.
With the various new rules and devices, which protect/save people and the planet, from harm.

20 years from now when we have the COVID-19 virus under control people will wonder why we had so many people who thought it was nothing worth worrying about! 

Next Monday the US will reach 500,000 dead from this disease.  Electronics technology won't do much for us in this regard, other than making it easy to report the facts.

[JohnnyMalaria]

The way I interact with my computer today is pretty much the same as it was 30 years ago. Keyboard/mouse/monitor. Specific applications for certain tasks. What has changed is the power of those applications and the ease to install them. But 40 years ago, that was a very different story. I don't see an earth-shattering change coming in the next 20 years. As for the next 50? I won't be around to find out.

I agree about 30 years ago but the situation was not different 40 years ago.  What became the personal computer was accessed with a serial CRT terminal taking the place of a separate keyboard and monitor but functionally this was identical.  Some people used teletypes instead of or in addition to a serial CRT terminal because a teletype provided an easy means of mass storage through paper tape.

I grew up in the UK so things were a little behind in the late 70s/early 80s. At that time, few people had seen a computer let alone have ready access to one. My high school had a TTY + modem (rubber cups included) link to the local polytechnic and programs were written on proforma sheets to be sent to the polytechnic and entered into the computer. We also had a Commodore PET. Ten years later, most people had ready access to a computer and the www was just about to be (ab)used by the general public. From that point on, not much has changed other than faster/increasingly miniaturized electronics.

One thing is certain - until we find a way to enter information into a computer that doesn't require a keyboard, not much else will change. If you are a die-hard console terminal person then the world really hasn't changed that much in 60+ years and we are coming full circle on using remote terminals.

If you consider the Smartphone, it's basically a very, very fast wireless telegraph...

[MK14]

Your timescale is a little out. For the UK fitment of seatbelts became mandatory in 1968, wearing them (for front seat passengers) became mandatory in 1983, so 53 and 38 years respectively.


Take a look at any footage of a 1960s or early 70s factory and you'll see dozens of things that would make a current health and safety inspector have a fit. In the UK the turning point came with the Health and Safety at Work Act 1974 which introduced criminal liability for employers that didn't make adequate provisions to guard their worker's health and safety, provide adequate safety equipment, machine guards, etc, etc.

I didn't construct those post(s) robustly enough, so I wasn't clear enough in what I meant. I was only trying to use the '30 years ago' as a rough indicator of the past. My details/examples, were trying to cover a much bigger period, of many, many decades.

Although I accept the various years you have mention. I consider it was a more gentle, year by year process, as safety standards, improved. A bit each year.

E.g. The UK's "Clunk click every trip", public information 'adverts'. Which clearly intended to nudge people into wearing seat-belts.

One of the original stars in those videos, later moved into dis-repute, so I've put in a later video. If you are very sensitive, maybe best to NOT watch it.

[jonovid]

you are asking to know the future of what the home computer will be?
today we are in transformation from the old to the new .  robots are still toddlers but in-time will grow to be-
to be human is to be a number in the system.  as computers have no feelings.
a lot of science fiction is only fiction because its not the future yet.
define a home! if your body is your home then its A neural implant. 
as the decommissioning of the nuclear family by the nation state may well have been accomplished by then. 
known as the hive mind, conformity or collective intelligence to the global brain with-in the internet.
the God of Heaven is truth to them that love him. as for the atheist, science is your only hope without any guarantee. 
so choose who you will serve. because the future will decide for you by default. a lot of science fiction is only fiction because its not the future yet
a virus today can do more death, then any carpet bombing in 1942. today its Deoxyribonucleic acid,  in 1942. it was enigma

[xrunner]

the God of Heaven is truth to them that love him. as for the atheist, science is your only hope without any guarantee. 

Here we go!!!

[jonovid]

the God of Heaven is truth to them that love him. as for the atheist, science is your only hope without any guarantee. 

Here we go!!!

you ask about the future of the home computer.   so I did say what I know to be true .  the convergence of many unrelated technology & science.
along with the many desires of the human heart.      what started with dolly the sheep continues to this day now add neural implants in a human body.
the interface between electronics and biological science.   were there are no ethics.  everything is for sale. 

[james_s]

Trying to predict the future of technology is mostly a fool's errand, if you look historically most predictions of the future turn out to be wildly wrong, often comically so. Sure they get it right a few times, but that is only a matter of throwing so much at the wall that a few things manage to stick. There is always some unforeseen factor that comes up and changes the course of all sorts of things.

Already computers have become so powerful that most people have no need for one that is anywhere close to state of the art. I suspect that cheap low power devices similar to the Raspberry Pi will satisfy the computing needs of most people as I would expect them to keep getting more powerful while the computing power the average person needs is not likely to increase much. This again could be altered by some completely new application that nobody has thought of yet.

As far as social media and such, who knows if anyone will even care about that 20 or 30 years from now. I quit using it years ago and haven't missed it at all, I've been surprised that the popularity has lasted this long. Once the generation that grew up sharing their whole lives social media has seen enough of their friends and acquaintances face the wrath of the mob over things they said or did 40 years ago that are no longer socially acceptable they might start to realize that maybe posting everything is a bad idea.

[Cerebus]

Trying to predict the future of technology is mostly a fool's errand, if you look historically most predictions of the future turn out to be wildly wrong, often comically so. Sure they get it right a few times, but that is only a matter of throwing so much at the wall that a few things manage to stick. There is always some unforeseen factor that comes up and changes the course of all sorts of things.

There are some however who have a much higher hit rate than others, Arthur C. Clarke comes to mind, and an interesting question is "Why them?". If one can extract the commonalities between people who make better predictions, then one can use those to select who to listen to now about current predictions of the future of technology.

[james_s]

There are some however who have a much higher hit rate than others, Arthur C. Clarke comes to mind, and an interesting question is "Why them?". If one can extract the commonalities between people who make better predictions, then one can use those to select who to listen to now about current predictions of the future of technology.

Well there are always going to be people who are more knowledgeable about a topic than others, or who have a stronger interest in it. There is also I suspect some confirmation bias, Arthur C Clarke made a large number of predictions so it is not surprising that he had a relatively large number of hits. I would bet he had quite a few misses too.

[MK14]

[David Hess]

until we find a way to enter information into a computer that doesn't require a keyboard, not much else will change. If you are a die-hard console terminal person then the world really hasn't changed that much in 60+ years and we are coming full circle on using remote terminals.

Over the past 10 years I have been going back to older technology.  I finally got fed up with wireless mice and keyboards so now I have wired ones.  I swapped my "modern" keyboard for an old style mechanical one.  I am using more external storage rather than less.  I also have more open terminal windows, active serial connections, and do more command line interaction because improvements in modern GUIs have made them less functional.

If you consider the Smartphone, it's basically a very, very fast wireless telegraph...

Most people never needed the functionality of a personal computer so a smartphone or tablet computer is sufficient for them but I also do not consider smartphones or tablet computers to be replacements for personal computers when a personal computer is what is really needed despite all of the advertising saying otherwise.

[james_s]

until we find a way to enter information into a computer that doesn't require a keyboard, not much else will change. If you are a die-hard console terminal person then the world really hasn't changed that much in 60+ years and we are coming full circle on using remote terminals.

Over the past 10 years I have been going back to older technology.  I finally got fed up with wireless mice and keyboards so now I have wired ones.  I swapped my "modern" keyboard for an old style mechanical one.  I am using more external storage rather than less.  I also have more open terminal windows, active serial connections, and do more command line interaction because improvements in modern GUIs have made them less functional.

If you consider the Smartphone, it's basically a very, very fast wireless telegraph...

Most people never needed the functionality of a personal computer so a smartphone or tablet computer is sufficient for them but I also do not consider smartphones or tablet computers to be replacements for personal computers when a personal computer is what is really needed despite all of the advertising saying otherwise.

I have tried a few wireless mice and never found them to be worth the trouble. I'm going to be in front of my computer any time I'm using the mouse anyway so I don't get the point of wireless, it isn't something I need to carry around with me. My favorite keyboard is still my IBM Model M mechanical keyboard that I acquired around 1991 and used on a 386sx-16 and today I use it on my main i7 desktop.

I've been saying the same thing about smartphones replacing computers ever since I first heard of the "post-PC" nonsense. Mobile devices have replaced computers for people that never really needed a computer, they just wanted a way to use the web and a PC was the only way to do that. The people who actually made use of their PC for more than content consumption and casual communication still need a PC and will into the foreseeable future.

[rs20]

I'm actually not that worried about the future of the home computer -- extrapolating the trends in CPUs, and especially GPUs, over the past decade or so seems encouraging.

• In CPUs, AMD is really blurring the lines between enterprise/server CPUs and personal/consumer CPUs; there's going to be a need for corporate workstations for a long while yet, and those a great for doing "real computing" (really not that bad for gaming either, especially if you slap a good GPU in there)
• GPUs used to be fairly gamer-focused devices, but they've grown in generality to the point that they are basically enormously powerful parallel processors that happen to be well tuned for doing graphics, but can do all sorts of stuff

I would be going too deep into speculation-land to try and figure out what the economic drivers for these trends are, but I think anyone who wants to naysay the future of home computers should at least provide one? Compared to the trend of Apple serializing iPhone batteries to prevent user repair, these are incredibly encouraging signs to me. In fact, the only threat I really see is that sort of anti-consumer sentiment seeping over to the PC world (in fact, Intel has toyed with it a fair bit.)

...I doubt that many of us will really understand the multi-core, super doomiflex desktop computers of the future.  Nor can an individual write the software to employ such machines....

I can't disagree with a sentiment of these statements more. For any given problem, it is significantly easier to write software today that it was decades ago, despite the underlying hardware becoming much more complex. Individuals can, and routinely do, write low-level software that runs on modern CPUs, some efficiently exploiting multithreading, and some using the massively parallel computing power of GPUs. It's not that hard.

You might think that programming modern computers is more complex because modern pieces of software are more complex and written by huge teams. But those are solutions to much more ambitious problems that were intractable 40 years ago. It's the problems that are harder, not the CPU-wrangling. If you want to solve Sudoku, automate your accounting, do some scientific simulation (I dunno, the sort of things you might do on a computer 40 years ago), it has never been easier to do so.  The one exception to all this might be for an individual who absolutely demands an in-depth understanding of how a CPU works in order to program it -- I will admit that an ability for abstract thought it possible more necessary than it was 40 years ago.

PS/ What I write above might be BS, mainly because I'm 35 years old.

[EasyGoing1]

the days are gone where you have to up grade because your computer is too slow to run the newest software. Firm/software updates are really all thats needed year to year.

And THANK THE GODS FOR THAT!

Until I got my 2013 MacBook Pro, upgrading annually was almost a necessity for me because before that MBP, no computer I owned could keep up with the way that I use them. That MBP finally gave up the ghost this last December so I had to get a 16" 2019 model ... and I was thinking about the fact that it has 32 gigs of RAM, and back when I was only 12 years old, my Commodore had an extravagant 64k of ram ... my computer today has 500,000 times more ram than my computer did when I was 12. That's truly phenomenal to me. Also, the there was a time when I would have laughed if you told me that my main computer would be a laptop. Now I can't see ever going back to a larger footprint. Laptops are plenty fast enough these days to keep up, no question about it!

Quantum home computers? never say never of course ... surely, if it's in the stars I hope I get to see it happen before I exit stage left. When I read about how they can guarantee a secure wireless connection using quantum entanglement - because any tampering with the link would immediately be revealed because of the nature of quantum entanglement ... it was MIND BLOWN for me ... and the bandwidth in such links is almost at a level of being unbelievable.

No doubt, our grandchildren will get to participate in some amazing advancements in technology. I feel lucky to have grown up just before the Internet was made public and all of the radical technological discoveries that have happened in my lifetime, but I truly believe that what I got to witness will pale in comparison for whats to come...

[David Hess]

the days are gone where you have to up grade because your computer is too slow to run the newest software. Firm/software updates are really all thats needed year to year.

And THANK THE GODS FOR THAT!

You may not have to upgrade your computer because of lack of processor speed, but lack of enough memory and lack of support for older hardware means that you still need to upgrade.

[gnuarm]

the days are gone where you have to up grade because your computer is too slow to run the newest software. Firm/software updates are really all thats needed year to year.

And THANK THE GODS FOR THAT!

You may not have to upgrade your computer because of lack of processor speed, but lack of enough memory and lack of support for older hardware means that you still need to upgrade.

Most of the lack of support issues seem to be related to OS upgrades.  Now that Windows 10 seems to be the permanent face on Windows I guess that is behind us. 

I'm using a used computer that was built with Win 7 installed but upgraded to 10 when recycled.  It was a top of the line machine at the time and is still very fast.  CPU speeds no longer increase dramatically year to year and this machine has 32 GB of RAM, so still ahead of most machines.  I've had it two or three years.  My main concern is that it is a HOT box!  Sometimes I can't keep it in my lap where I like to use it. 

Can't find anything new I want to use because they've compromised on the keyboards now making the arrow keys toy size and often hiding the home, end, pgup and pgdn keys.  I've seen some that even shrink the width of keys in the entire numeric keypad.  What are they thinking?  I'm guessing it's a combination of wanting to keep the keyboard to a rectangle for aesthetic reasons and use the same keyboard in both 15 inch and 17 inch machines (I use a 17" for visibility, old age is a biach).  So I'll keep using this thing until it turns back to beach sand.