Year of the Linux desktop

[Karel]

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide

Linux: 3.08% desktop market share

Servers, embedded, phones, (wifi)routers/modems, Linux is king everywhere, except for the desktop...

[DiTBho]

phones

Phones? Android = Linux kernel + Google rootfs

[themadhippy]

Phones? Android = Linux kernel + Google rootfs

yea phones ,theres a few out there,but there  almost as rare as rocking horse manure.

[SiliconWizard]

So?

Many have predicted the death of the "desktop" as we know it anyway. At least for a majority of users. And for a large part, that is already true as the majority of usages now (in volume) is on devices that are not desktop machines.

But as far as the traditional desktop is concerned, sure Windows and macOS are still king. I think Windows is going to lose market share (it already has, significantly) over time, macOS is going to gain even more, and Linux-based OSs will gain some as well but that will probably remain under the 10% mark for the next decade or so.

And my "so?" was meant to say: what's the problem with that? A much larger market share for Linux-based desktop would imply a complete change in the development and release models, and that would not be good news for "Linux" users. Just my opinion here of course, but I'm pretty convinced of that. Just look at the drama that can happen when large corporations mess with Linux distros to get a feel of what it could be if it were much worse and much more widespread.

I personally have used Linux for years for various use cases, desktop being only on my laptop, for occasional use, until recently.
Windows was still my main OS for workstation uses.
Until a couple months ago when I finally made the switch to Linux (DE: KDE plasma) as my daily driver on my main workstation. So when things are not occasional anymore but become your only environment. I have a dual boot to Windows but haven't booted to it in 2 months now.

Otherwise, yeah, Linux, the kernel is literally everywhere these days, due to Android, and runs on more machines than Windows. But it's just the kernel. Android as an OS is different from typical Linux distros.
And while Android works OK on mobile devices, I wouldn't, ever, ever want to have to use it for any serious work.

And with all that said, I'm not sure why "the year of the Linux desktop" has become an obsession, or even a meme. I am glad Linux has become more than usable for desktop use these days, but I don't care if it's going to take the world over or not. Actually, I think the "competition" (if we can call it that) with commercial systems is partly what drives its development the way it is, as free software in general has largely been a reaction to commercial software.

[brucehoult]

Can you run Linux as your day to day desktop PC without suffering?

Heck yes, if you're an average person without weird special needs, and I've done so at various times -- for example continuously from when I built a machine using the then brand new i7-4790K (so mid-2014), through a 6700K and then ThreadRipper 2990WX, until I got the first M1 Mac Mini in November 2020.

99% of what I do uses a programming text editor, a terminal/shell, and a web browser.

Damn near everything now uses a web browser. The days of any significant site not working on Chrome on Linux are long gone. Maybe 15-25 years ago there were problems with some bank sites only working on IE or some shit like that. Or using stupid Flash. Linux users can thank Steve Jobs for those days being long gone: "We're selling iPhones to all your best customers, we're never going to have IE or Flash. Do you want to keep your customers?"

Want to do a spreadsheet, word processing, a presentation? Google has got you covered, in browser. Need something like Photoshop? Figma in your browser.

Or use LibreOffice or GIMP or whatever.

Can you use Linux as your only desktop system? Absolutely!

Should *everyone* do that?  Not my problem.

[CatalinaWOW]

One aspect of the data presented makes me question the whole thing.  It shows unknown operating systems gaining and then losing significant market in 2023.  With all of the gain and loss coming from Windows.  What could that (or those) operating systems be?

Other than that a slow decline for Windows, with OS X basically picking up users from Windows and Linux very slightly expanding its niche all seems consistent with the real world.

I would agree that for the majority of users Linux works just fine.  As does OS X, Chrome and Windows.  Because the vast majority of users need a web browser, and a little bit of word processing and spreadsheets.  An environment that can't provide for those needs has no business beating BSD for market share.

[mengfei]

SBC FTW! 

[Halcyon]

Can you run Linux as your day to day desktop PC without suffering?

Heck yes, if you're an average person without weird special needs, and I've done so at various times -- for example continuously from when I built a machine using the then brand new i7-4790K (so mid-2014), through a 6700K and then ThreadRipper 2990WX, until I got the first M1 Mac Mini in November 2020.

99% of what I do uses a programming text editor, a terminal/shell, and a web browser.

Damn near everything now uses a web browser. The days of any significant site not working on Chrome on Linux are long gone. Maybe 15-25 years ago there were problems with some bank sites only working on IE or some shit like that. Or using stupid Flash. Linux users can thank Steve Jobs for those days being long gone: "We're selling iPhones to all your best customers, we're never going to have IE or Flash. Do you want to keep your customers?"

Want to do a spreadsheet, word processing, a presentation? Google has got you covered, in browser. Need something like Photoshop? Figma in your browser.

Or use LibreOffice or GIMP or whatever.

Can you use Linux as your only desktop system? Absolutely!

Should *everyone* do that?  Not my problem.

I'd even put most gaming in this category these days. I think I came across 1 game that didn't run under Steam on Linux.

[Karel]

The question should be:

Can you run windows as your day to day desktop PC without suffering?

[Bryn]

That may be good news, and it shows that people and businesses are slowly turning their backs away from Windows but it will take a decade or so for Linux to ever dominate the world.

And it would be a miracle of macOS have some form of dominance in offices and such like how it was during the 80s. If Apple would stop charging thousands for their machines, maybe...

[Karel]

I believe it's better if Linux will never reach more than 10% desktop market share.
I don't want that all the crap happening on windows comes to Linux.
Windows is designed for the masses, including housewives and gamers.
Linux is designed by engineers, for engineers. And I want to keep it that way.

[beanflying]

The simple reality is does the software you NEED to use everyday have a OS specific equivalent (that is it's equal or better), does it run in your chosen OS natively without a major every upgrade cycle?

Choosing an OS FIRST then demanding or expecting software vendors to make a version to suit that specific OS is ass backwards logic unless you like pain and an ongoing project to keep it functioning.

The recent box I dropped Mint onto as an example is frankly no better or worse than the Windoze 10 or 11 boxes I also have but if the software I needed to use it with becomes and issue then I won't hesitate to make a change in OS. All the other daily functional software has been a non issue but there is no way in hell for example I would recommend it 'YET' for someone without a better than average grasp of computer backends. Way to often even this fairly polished Distro asks questions or throws up messages beyond the average PC user and would likely see them break it.

Hoping for a Linux desktop domination while it remains a relative mess of distros with a higher technical bar to entry it will remain 'niche'.

[Karel]

there is no way in hell for example I would recommend it 'YET' for someone without a better than average grasp of computer backends.

Windows isn't better in that regards. It comes with it's own problems and mysterious errors.
The only reason windows is still the "better" choice for average Joe is that it's easier to find a friend or familymember
with some expertise that can solve those problems.
The average Joe doesn't want to become an experienced user and search on fora for possible solutions.
He prefers to call somebody and have it fixed. With Linux that's practically impossible.

So, things are going to change only when most families have some "Linux whiz kid" that is willing to assist in case of problems.

[RaymondMack]

Count one more long-time Windows user having switching over to Linux this year. Modern Windows is a pain in the butt and has an absurd amount of background services that act like a fat-suit and kill performance on laptops or anything with a HDD (Dell workstations at my university!). Win7 and even Win8.1 (if you could accept the new start menu) were decent OSes. All the constant background updating on 10 and 11 is frustrating when using a laptop (fans go full-speed and performance drops to a crawl). Recently one of these updates broke my wireless card. Everything works fine on first boot, but once the system goes to sleep and resumes, the card disappears from device manager... And no, updating the drivers did not help. So yeah, I'm done MS.

After some research and testing, I've settled on openSUSE Tumbleweed (rolling release) and Aeon (their immutable MicroOS for desktop use). So far, my 11th gen Intel desktop rig works perfectly out of the box--which wasn't true for Windows 10 22H1! Thunderbolt 4, WiFi 6E (Intel ax210), Bluetooth 5.x, etc work fine--which is a first for me, as there was always something that didn't work right in the past.

GNOME DE with a few extensions (dash to panel, etc.) and Linux literally feels like how Win8.1 should have looked and worked (laugh if you want, but I liked Win8.1 so GNOME is perfect for me). Some features like the Media Controls extension integration with say Firefox playing music from SoundCloud is an even better user experience than on Win11. And with QEMU+KVM, Windows VMs can perform at near native speed. Add IOMMU PCIe pass-through and one can even run Windows only games with near native performance or use specialty add-on cards that aren't supported under Linux. So no need for dual boots. Just pass HW over to the VM and use two monitors for enhanced productivity.

The one thing that Windows has going for it, is that it comes by default on laptops and desktops. And lets face it: if someone has to do something more than turn the thing on and use it, they are not going to trouble themselves with installing and configuring a new OS. Or if they do decide to change, it will be done by buying a Mac. So yeah, Linux will never have much market share outside of IoT, cloud and server applications. I think the increase in Linux desktop users is probably from a tiny number of power users like myself and gamers switching over. So a drop in the ocean. And I don't think MS even cares. They are fine with loosing market share on desktop while growing in other areas like Xbox, Azure, Office 365 and so on. Windows is not their primary source of income any more.

[DiTBho]

I believe it's better if Linux will never reach more than 10% desktop market share.
I don't want that all the crap happening on windows comes to Linux.
Windows is designed for the masses, including housewives and gamers.
Linux is designed by engineers, for engineers. And I want to keep it that way.

100% agree!

[DiTBho]

Can you run Linux as your day to day desktop PC without suffering?

the suffering problem is different for me: can you use a modern GPU in a non-x86 system?
most don't work because they don't meet minimum specs, and do things that only work on x86.

X11 on /dev/fb0 (simple video framebuffer) reflects itself on how you design your desktop, i.e. mine is in the most minimalist way, with the least possible use of things that require graphics acceleration

Anyone who sees me working on GNU/Linx on my 2022 Tyran POWER9 workstation thinks I'm working on an a freak early 90's computer.

Anyway, can you run GIMP on a Sony Playstation2 without suffering?
(kernel v2.2, XFree86 v3.3, we are talking about a 2002 kit)

yes 

[AndyBeez]

Walk into your average high street PC store and find one native Linux machine? Chrome yes. Android yes. iOS and MacOS yes. Windows always and forever. You might find Suse on a 'high end' gaming laptop for $5000, but otherwise a big nada.

Windows is the Honda of the OS world. What your soul craves is a Harley Davidson, but your kids, partner, partner's dog and a 9-to-5 shitjob dictates, five seats, aircon, airbags, wipe clean seats and 40 mpg.

However... If you go up the OS family tree, just like Linux, MacOS and iOS are evolutionary descendents of Unix. Which kind of means the Unix Tribe is far more widespread throughout our lives than popularist opinion suggests.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems

[beanflying]

...

GNOME DE with a few extensions (dash to panel, etc.)..

I ran across nearly 300 posts of completely self indulgent  online a week or so back on the pronunciation of Gnome and insisting the G was silent 

I think the option to 'touch grass' needs to be a fixed built in Macro to a hotkey in all Linux Distros 

[mfro]

I bet these numbers would look significantly different if there was a way to distinguish between private and company/organisation's computers.

[AndyBeez]

That cartoon says it all. Why do Windows users never become sexually aroused using the DOS prompt? Would someone explain to these pubescent wunder nerds the world has moved on from the 1980s VDU terminal.

I ran across nearly 300 posts of completely self indulgent online a week or so back on the pronunciation of Gnome and insisting the G was silent

Like the silent G in Github

[brucehoult]

And it would be a miracle of macOS have some form of dominance in offices and such like how it was during the 80s. If Apple would stop charging thousands for their machines, maybe...

Few office (or home) users need more than a $599 M2 Mac Mini, or in some cases with a $200 upgrade to 16 GB RAM.

Hell, *my* only desktop computer is a 16 GB M1 Mac Mini I ordered in late November 2020, delivered about a month later.

I have a Samsung 32" 4k monitor on it, $30 Logitec speakers, Microsoft 850 wireless kb/mouse set.

[beanflying]

That cartoon says it all. Why do Windows users never become sexually aroused using the DOS prompt? Would someone explain to these pubescent wunder nerds the world has moved on from the 1980s VDU terminal.

I ran across nearly 300 posts of completely self indulgent online a week or so back on the pronunciation of Gnome and insisting the G was silent

Like the silent G in Github

Pinned comment here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTY620NUdPk&lc=Ugy0D7tFmxPSirNi5ct4AaABAg.9UaHGp1S77c9rdTXXe3m2L

[nctnico]

So?

Many have predicted the death of the "desktop" as we know it anyway. At least for a majority of users. And for a large part, that is already true as the majority of usages now (in volume) is on devices that are not desktop machines.

But as far as the traditional desktop is concerned, sure Windows and macOS are still king. I think Windows is going to lose market share (it already has, significantly) over time, macOS is going to gain even more, and Linux-based OSs will gain some as well but that will probably remain under the 10% mark for the next decade or so.

If you are going to seperate between 'glorified typewriter' and 'workstation' then Linux will have a much larger marketshare in the workstation section. For embedded software development alone Linux is a much better fit compared to Windows. I'm seeing a surprising amount of Linux systems being used for serious computer use.

[Karel]

Linux has over 3% of the desktop market? It's more complicated than that

StatCounter says it does, but a closer look reveals old-school Linux desktops are still stuck at a lower number.
If you take a broader view, however, Linux is the most popular end-user operating system of all.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/linux-has-over-3-of-the-desktop-market-its-more-complicated-than-that/

[DiTBho]

There is hope for GNU/Haiku.
I have hope for GNU/Haiku on RISC-V.

currently beta3, 0.001% use